Australia in the World

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC once again joins Darren to discuss a busy month of news, starting with the recent election in Solomon Islands, then a bombshell Washington Post story about the alleged involvement of the Indian government in targeted killings (with a strong Australian angle); next the recent 2+2 bilateral with South Korea and the possibility of others joining onto AUKUS Pillar 2, and finishing with FM Penny Wong’s statement that statehood for Palestine is required to break the cycle of violence. This episode was recorded on Friday 3 May, exactly one year following the death of Allan Gyngell. He is dearly missed. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, Chrisnrita Aumanu-Leong, Evan Wasuka and Doug Dingwall, “Former diplomat Jeremiah Manele elected as new Solomon Islands prime minister”, ABC News, 2 May 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-02/solomon-islands-new-prime-minister-election-jeremiah-manele/103791138 Greg Miller, Gerry Shih and Ellen Nakashima, “An assassination plot on American soil reveals a darker side of Modi’s India”, Washington Post, April 29, 2024: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/india-assassination-raw-sikhs-modi/ Penny Wong, “Speech to the ANU National Security College “Securing our Future”, 9 April 2024: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-anu-national-security-college-securing-our-future Bettany Hughes, “The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World” (book): https://www.hachette.com.au/bettany-hughes/the-seven-wonders-of-the-ancient-world Serial, Season 4 (podcast): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/podcasts/serial-season-four-guantanamo.html   Ezra Klein Show (podcast), “Salman Rushdie is not who you think he is”, 26 April 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-salman-rushdie.html

In the third episode of a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Amy King, an Associate Professor at the Australian National University, to discuss China. It is now cliché to say that China is having a major impact on the current order and its trajectory, but there is little agreement on what that impact is and how far it might go. Darren has taken a keen interest in this question in his academic research, co-authoring a paper titled “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony” with John Ikenberry that was published in 2023. The journal’s editors subsequently invited two scholars to write critiques, one of those being Amy King.   Darren opens by seeking Amy’s views on whether the “post-Cold War order” is a useful starting point to discuss China’s influence, and whether she agrees with US Secretary of State Blinken that that this particular order is at an end. They then turn to Darren’s paper, with Darren describing his model of “illiberal hegemony”, where China’s approach to order-building is partially extrapolated from its domestic models of political order and economic organisation. Amy has multiple disagreements both with the model and its implications, which makes for an engaging back-and-forth. This is another long and wonkish conversation, but returns continuously to practical questions, such what Australian diplomats might say when defending the (old) order to their colleagues across the region. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Amy King (bio): https://amykingonline.com/ Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Amy King, “The Collective Logic of (Chinese) Hegemonic Order”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2253148 Matthew Stephen, “China and the Limits of Hypothetical Hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2259801 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and Hegemony: An Exchange – The Authors Reply”, Security Studies (gated, contact Darren for a copy): https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2252735 Richard Flanagan, “Question 7” (novel): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/question-7-9781761343452 Sam Sachdeva, “The China tightrope: Navigating New Zealand's relationship with a world superpower: https://www.allenandunwin.co.nz/browse/book/Sam-Sachdeva-China-Tightrope-9781991006172/

In the second episode in a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Dr. Jenny Gordon to discuss the international economic order. Over the past 40 years Australia has arguably been the single greatest beneficiary of the post-war economic order, at least among the group of industrialised countries. But from the GFC to Brexit to paralysis in the WTO to the rise of weaponised interdependence, geoeconomics and industrial policy, the rules and institutions of that old economic order – and the international trade and investment that flourished within it – are all under threat. Dr Jenny Gordon is an Honorary Professor at POLIS: The Centre for Social Policy Research at the Australian National University and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute. Jenny had a long career in government, most recently as Chief Economist at DFAT from 2019 to 2021. Prior to that she spent 10 years at the Productivity Commission as the Principal Advisor Research, worked in the private sector, and began her professional career at the Reserve Bank of Australia. She holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University. The conversation begins with the question: what was the old economic order, when did it begin and what did it do? As an economist, Jenny says the end of the Cold War is not a key turning point for the post-war economic order, one must go back to the 1970s and forward to 2000s find these turning points. She describes why the order worked well and how Australia did so well within it. The discussion moves to the problems and tensions that emerged that have led us to the current moment, and the two debate – and disagree slightly – on the actual state of the current economic order. Finally, they look to the future, and discuss industrial policy, climate change, alternative models of economic growth and, of course, geopolitics, as well as what the rules and institutions of the future might need to do to protect the benefits of economic openness while managing contemporary policy challenges like climate change. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Jenny Gordon (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/jenny-gordon The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Moons_of_Maali_Almeida Peter Bellwood, The Five-Million-Year Odyssey: The Human Journey from Ape to Agriculture: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691197579/the-five-million-year-odyssey 99 Percent Invisible (podcast): https://99percentinvisible.org/ Lupin (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/80994082 Huberman Lab Podcast, “Dr. Becky Kennedy: Protocols for Excellent Parenting & Improving Relationships of All Kinds”, 26 February 2024: https://www.hubermanlab.com/episode/dr-becky-kennedy-protocols-for-excellent-parenting-improving-relationships-of-all-kinds

China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, visited Australia this week. The visit attracted a great deal of scrutiny, not just for the long list of issues in the bilateral relationship, but also Wang's meeting with former Prime Minister Paul Keating. Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC joins Darren to discuss the week's events. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Tibetan activists protest outside Chinese embassy against Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit”, ABC News, 20 March 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-20/apn-protest-outside-chinese-embassy-as-wang-yi-visits/103611798 Daniel Flitton, “Don’t be timid about Trump, Australia, just roll with the punches, Lowy Interpreter, 21 March 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/don-t-be-timid-about-trump-australia-just-roll-punches

This episode is the first of a series of at least three that are linked by the theme of international order. Last year US Secretary of State Blinken said “what we’re experiencing now is more than a test of the post-Cold War order. It’s the end of it”. The concept of the possible ending of an order raises lots of questions: what exactly was the old order, why is it ending (if indeed it is), and what might come next? Why do these questions matter for Australia in the world? This series will try to tackle these questions from a few different angles. The first topic is war and international order. The two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has passed, and it is approaching six months since Hamas attacked Israel. These are conflicts with potentially major impacts on international order. They are also important for the leadership role the US might play in that order going forward. To discuss these conflicts through the lens of order Darren is joined by Andrew Phillips, an Associate Professor at the University of Queensland. Andrew’s research focuses on war, strategy, and international order, with a particular focus on Great Power rivalry and asymmetric violence as drivers of transformative change in world politics. Andrew and Darren recorded this episode earlier in March. They start with an assessment of where each of these conflicts is currently at, how they might end, and through what mechanisms they are affecting the broader international order, and the leadership role of the United States. It is one of the longest episodes in the history of the podcast, but the simple fact is that these types of conversations require such length to be done well. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Andrew Phillips (bio): https://polsis.uq.edu.au/profile/1348/andrew-phillips Darren Lim and G. John Ikenberry, “China and the Logic of Illiberal Hegemony”, Security Studies, 28 February 2023: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 George Lawson and Ayşe Zarakol, “Recognizing injustice: the ‘hypocrisy charge’ and the future of the liberal international order”, International Affairs, Volume 99, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 201–217: https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/99/1/201/6967344 Dune (Part 2): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15239678/ Ezra Klein Show (podcast), “Marilynne Robinson on Biblical Beauty, Human Evil and the Idea of Israel”, 5 March 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-marilynne-robinson.html

A frenetic period of Australian diplomacy has wrapped up, after Australia hosted the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne, which commemorated 50 years of Dialogue Relations. The ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic followed events closely and joins Darren to talk through the week’s news. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia and South-East Asian nations endorse watered-down Melbourne Declaration to strengthen ties in the region”, ABC News, 6 March 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-06/australia-south-east-asia-melbourne-declaration-asean-ties/103556630 Susannah Patton, X (Twitter) Thread with reflections on the ASEAN summit, 7 March 2024: https://twitter.com/SusannahCPatton/status/1765500247349039417 Greg Earl, “Economic diplomacy: Australia Inc’s new tilt at ASEAN”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 March 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/economic-diplomacy-australia-inc-s-new-tilt-asean

Indonesians have voted for their next president, and while the results have not been finalised, Prabowo Subianto looks very likely to replace the incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Darren is joined by Aaron Connelly, Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, to discuss politics in Indonesia. In particular, how did Jokowi’s former rival in his two election victories come to receive the president’s implicit support in this one? Who is the typical “swing voter” in Indonesia? How will Jokowi’s legacy be affected by the conduct of the election, and what might we expect from a Prabowo presidency, especially given his controversial past? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Aaron Connelly biography: https://www.iiss.org/en/people/southeast-asian-politics-and-foreign-policy/aaron-connelly/ Pramoedya Ananta Toer, Buru Quartet Series: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/series/AN6/buru-quartet/ The National Security Podcast, “Election watch 2024: what makes Indonesian democracy unique?”, 8 February 2024: https://shows.acast.com/the-national-security-podcast/episodes/2024-indonesian-elections Lowy Institute Conversations, “The comeback general — Prabowo’s thumping victory and what it means for Indonesia”, 16 February 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/conversations-comeback-general-prabowo-s-thumping-victory-what-it-means-indonesia

PM Albanese’s visit to Beijing has ended. Are Australia-China relations “stabilised”? And if so, what’s next? To discuss these big questions Darren is joined by Ben Herscovitch, his colleague at the ANU and author of the indispensable Substack newsletter “Beijing to Canberra and Back”. Relevant links Ben Herscovitch, “The Prime Minister's visit, what really caused relationship repair, and a policy takeaway”, Beijing to Canberra and Back, 30 October to 7 November 2023: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/the-prime-ministers-visit-what-really Ben Herscovitch, “Australia should sanction Chinese officials abusing human rights”, Canberra Times, 7 November 2023: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8413517/no-escaping-an-uncomfortable-fact-about-pms-handling-of-china/ Darren Lim and Walter Colnaghi, “Allan Gyngell's podcasting contribution to Australian foreign policy”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 7 November 2023: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2023.2272825 Yiruma, “River flows in you” (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7maJOI3QMu0  N NASA, "Pale blue dot" (image): https://science.nasa.gov/resource/voyager-1s-pale-blue-dot/  Jurassic Park (Film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jurassic_Park_(film)

Continuing a tradition of podcast, for the first episode back from a long summer break Darren is joined by good friend of the podcast Richard Maude to discuss what each learned from 2023, what trends were notable, and what we might expect – or hope for – in 2024. The discussion covers both the world, and Australia in the world, and the two are able to agree on the ‘word of the year’ for 2023: fragmentation. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard Maude biography: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Secretary Antony J. Blinken Remarks to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) “The Power and Purpose of American Diplomacy in a New Era”, 13 September 2023: https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-johns-hopkins-school-of-advanced-international-studies-sais-the-power-and-purpose-of-american-diplomacy-in-a-new-era/ Wang Yi speech at a symposium on the international situation and China's foreign relations in 2023, summarised in Xinhua piece: https://english.news.cn/20240109/f8a95bbb328642c1b11c05fb409bff9d/c.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Josh Rogin, Chaos Under heaven (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54562943 Lawrence Durrell, Bitter Lemons of Cyprus (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/214948 Tracy Chapman and Luke Coombs, “Fast Car”, 2024 Grammys (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEqb6xbeuCo

The ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic joins once again this episode. PM Albanese is visiting China later this week, and Darren frames a new bargaining phase of the relationship, in which both sides (but especially Australia) must manage multiple, complex, and cross-cutting equities. He imagines a ‘ledger’ of ‘wins’ for both sides, and the discussion revolves around what might lie behind some of the recent policy decisions made by the government that appear favourable to Beijing’s interests, such as Darwin port and anti-dumping duties. The PM has also just returned from a state visit to Washington DC, and so Darren and Stephen discuss the prospects of AUKUS getting through congress, the extent to which there are differences between the Biden Administration and the Albanese government on China, and some other interesting details from a speech delivered by the PM. Stephen then discusses his recent article with Lice Movono on the Fijian government reversing an apparent decision to join a statement criticising China on human rights. The podcast concludes touching upon the fact that Stephen just spent the past week sitting in senate estimates hearings – for what purpose, and what did he learn? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Why did Beijing choose this moment to release Cheng Lei, and what might it signify?”, ABC News, 13 October 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-13/cheng-lei-analysis-xiao-qian-beijing-albanese-visit/102972204 Stephen Dziedzic, “Federal government will not cancel Chinese company Landbridge's Port of Darwin lease”, ABC News, 20 October 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-20/port-of-darwin-chinese-company-lease-not-cancelled/103003452 Stephen Dziedzic and Lice Movono, “Fiji to withdraw name from list of nations criticising China's human rights violations of Uyghur and Muslim minorities”, ABC News, 27 October 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-27/fiji-backs-united-nations-china-human-rights-violations-xinjiang/103025888 Evan Osnos, “China’s age of malaise”, The New Yorker, 23 October 2023: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/30/chinas-age-of-malaise Jonathan Jones, Earthly Delights: A History of the Renaissance (Thames and Hudson, 2023): https://thamesandhudson.com.au/product/earthly-delights-a-history-of-the-renaissance/

Almost six months have passed since the release of the Defence Strategic Review (DSR), and this episode Darren is joined by Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, for an American perspective on Australia’s defence policy. The conversation starts with a basic conceptual model and fundamental tensions with Australia’s alliance with the US, before traversing a range of contemporary issues, including AUKUS, the possible re-election of Donald Trump and battlefield lessons from Ukraine. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Zack Cooper, biography: https://www.aei.org/profile/zack-cooper/ Department of Defence, “National Defence: Defence Strategic Review 2023”, April 2023: https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review Institute for the Study of War: https://www.understandingwar.org/ Binge Mode: Harry Potter (podcast): https://podbay.fm/p/binge-mode-harry-potter

In an 'emergency' episode, Darren is joined by Ian Hall, a Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute, to discuss the truly explosive revelation made this week by PM Trudeau of Canada that Canadian authorities are pursuing allegations linking agents backed by the Indian government to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader (who was a Canadian citizen) on Canadian soil in June.  Noting this story is still in its early days, Ian describes the complex and troubled history and context to this incident, before the two think through the perspectives of the Indian and Canadian governments, and how third countries like Australia might approach the path forward.  Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with editing by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

The Australian government has launched a new International Development Policy, and Darren is joined by Bridi Rice, CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab, for a discussion of all things development through an Australian lens. The conversation begins with some Development 101: what is “development? What are the goals of development policy and are they contested? How is development policy carried out in practice, and by whom? Bridi describes Australia’s development policy community as coming out of a decade in a “defensive crouch” and provides an overview of the new policy. The conversation ranges widely, including a focus on geopolitics and China and the question of how a development policy can place a climate change agenda at its core. Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Bridi Rice, biography: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/team/bridi-rice Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Australia’s International Development Policy”, August 2023: https://www.dfat.gov.au/development/new-international-development-policy   Eryk Bagshaw, “Ransom attack cripples Vanuatu government systems, forces staff to use pen and paper”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 November 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/australia-called-in-to-help-after-hackers-shut-down-vanuatu-government-systems-20221114-p5by7a.html Pat Conroy, Audience Q&A, Development Policy Forum, Australian National University, 12 September 2023: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/pat-conroy/transcript/audience-qa-development-policy-forum-australian-national-university Stefan Dercon, Gambling on Development: Why Some Countries Win and Others Lose (2022):  https://www.amazon.com/Gambling-Development-Some-Countries-Others/dp/1787385620 Gambling on development, reviewed: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2022/09/14/book-review-gambling-on-development-why-some-countries-win-and-others-lose-by-stefan-dercon/ Gambling on development, presented to an Australian audience at ANU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3mNwbNDoPg Hania Rani (musician and composer): https://haniarani.com Bluey The Album: https://www.bluey.tv/products/bluey-the-album/

This episode Darren is thrilled to be joined (for the second time) by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC, perhaps the finest foreign affairs reporter in Australia and a dear friend of the podcast. While the episode commences with the premise of ‘stories that are bubbling beneath the surface’, over time a clear theme emerges – the domestic politics of security pacts. The conversation begins with a new agreement between Papua New Guinea and the United States that seems to be delaying Canberra’s efforts to conclude its own pact with Port Morseby. Next up is Vanuatu, where Australia was (surprisingly) able to procure the signing of a new security agreement when a new government took office last year, but which is now facing strong ratification headwinds. Meanwhile in Australia, grassroots discontent within the ruling Labor Party regarding AUKUS threatened to overflow at the party’s annual conference this past week. The majority of the podcast was recorded on 11 August, with a quick postscript recorded on 20 August.  Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Kenneth Clarke, Civilisation (TV series): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sX_r9R98DiY Empire (podcast): https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground-copy China Power (podcast), ‘China’s Influence in Melanesia: A Conversation with Pete Connolly’, 2 August 2023: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/chinapower/chinas-influence-melanesia-conversation-pete-connolly Richard Kerbaj, The Secret History of the Five Eyes: The Untold Story of the International Spy Network (review): https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/02/the-secret-history-of-the-five-eyes-untold-story-international-spy-network-by-richard-kerbaj-review Henry Reynolds, Truth-Telling: History, sovereignty and the Uluru Statement, NewSouth Books: https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/truth-telling/

It’s time to resume, or start again. A lot has happened in the past four months, and Darren focuses on two big stories, or relationship trajectories: Australia-China, and US-China. Both might be trending in positive directions, but there have been bumps along the way. May the same be said for this podcast into the future! Australia in the World is written and produced by Darren Lim, with research, editing and co-hosting this episode by Walter Colnaghi, and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Penny Wong, “Meeting with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi - Opening remarks”, 13 July 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/meeting-chinas-director-office-central-commission-foreign-affairs-wang-yi-opening-remarks Alan Tidwell, “The role of ‘diplomatic lobbying’ in shaping US foreign policy and its effects on the Australia–US relationship”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 2017: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2016.1184620 Celebrating the Life of Allan Gyngell AO, 19 June 1947 - 3 May 2023 (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej7i_0bqVNM Leonard Cohen, “Come healing”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pKUwTooZ3o DPM Richard Marles’ statement ot the House of Representatives, 10 May 2023: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/26693/&sid=0002 Video (see from 9:01:20am): https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen/ParlView/video/1108170 FM Penny Wong’s statement to the Senate, 10 May 2023: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/26728/&sid=0055 Video (see from 12:19:40): https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen/ParlView/video/1108162 Tim Watts, “Remarks in memory of Allan Gyngell AO”, 11 May 2023: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/tim-watts/statements/remarks-memory-allan-gyngell-ao Alan Bollard, Economists at war (book): https://global.oup.com/academic/product/economists-at-war-9780198846000?cc=au&lang=en& Rick Astley and Blossoms perform the songs of The Smiths at Glastonbury 2023 (youtube, but audio only): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ6KiHIWnFk

Allan Gyngell passed away on 3 May 2023. Darren talks about the past few weeks, and reads a short piece he wrote for the AIIA about his friend, and the podcast they built together. Relevant links Darren Lim, “Allan Gyngell and ‘Australia in the World’”, 5 May 2023: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/allan-gyngell-and-australia-in-the-world/ Penny Wong, “Passing of Allan Gyngell AO”, 3 May 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/passing-allan-gyngell-ao Daniel Flitton, “Remembering Allan Gyngell, ‘the finest mind in Australian foreign policy’”, Lowy Interpreter, 3 May 2023: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/remembering-allan-gyngell-finest-mind-australian-foreign-policy Andrew Tillett, “Allan Gyngell remembered as ‘finest mind’ in foreign policy”, Australian Financial Review, 3 May 2023: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/allan-gyngell-remembered-as-finest-mind-in-foreign-policy-20230503-p5d599   Peter Varghese, “Vale Allan Gyngell AO”, Asialink, 3 May 2023: https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/stories/vale-allan-gyngell-ao John Blaxland, “Vale Allan Gyngell: A remarkable contributor to Australia’s engagement with the world”, The Conversation, 4 May 2023: https://www.themandarin.com.au/219276-allan-gyngell-a-contributor-to-australias-world-engagement/ Kevin Rudd, “Statement on the death of Allan Gyngell AO”, 3 May 2023: https://www.kevinrudd.com/media/statement-on-the-death-of-allan-gyngell-ao Ludovico Einaudi, i giorni (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TL1v3KVi6go George Winston, Variations on the Kanon (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2CE5BZVk40

In the wake of Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin, Allan and Darren ask – are we in a new Cold War? Is the concept a useful frame for understanding international affairs? We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Dr Heather Smith to become National President of the Australian Institute of International Affairs”, AIIA Press release, 17 November 2022: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/news-item/dr-heather-smith-to-become-national-president-of-the-australian-institute-of-international-affairs/ George Orwell, “You and the atom bomb”, 1945: https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/you-and-the-atom-bomb/ Aaron Friedberg, “Why didn’t the United States become a Garrison State” (article): https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539189 Aaron Friedberg, In the shadow of the Garrison State (book): https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691048901/in-the-shadow-of-the-garrison-state   “ChinaTalk: Stephen Kotkin on China” (podcast), 23 March 2023: https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinatalk-stephen-kotkin-china George Kennan, “The long telegram” (1946): https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/coldwar/documents/episode-1/kennan.htm “Speech by President von der Leyen on EU-China relations to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the European Policy Centre”, 30 March 2023: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063 John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace (book): https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-long-peace-9780195043358?cc=au&lang=en& Odd Arne Westad, The Global Cold War (book): https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/global-cold-war/75870878657DC67E0BC70FA7D2388494 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies (temporary free download): https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/HGZEHMIG6URDFUCTYCCN/full?target=10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Ungated paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377 John Lewis Gaddis, George F Kennan: An American Life (book): https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/john-lewis-gaddis Norah Jones (Wikipedia page): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norah_Jones

The members of AUKUS have laid out a more concrete plan for Australia to acquire a nuclear-powered submarine capability, and so Allan and Darren offer their views on progress to date, the merits of the overall plan, and what might be ahead. Next, following PM Albanese’s state visit to India, the two discuss the significance of the visit for the bilateral relationship, the two countries’ respective interests, and some of the challenges (such as human rights) in further deepening ties. Finally, they each offer their thoughts on the “Red Alert” series on the prospect of war with China published by Nine Newspapers. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Joint leaders statement on AUKUS, 14 March 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-leaders-statement-aukus Brett Worthington, “Paul Keating savages AUKUS nuclear submarine deal as Labor's worst since conscription”, ABC News, 15 March 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-15/paul-keating-anthony-albanese-penny-wong-aukus-nuclear-china/102098142 Roger Bradbury et al, “Progress in detection tech could render submarines useless by the 2050s. What does it mean for the AUKUS pact?”, The Conversation, 14 March 2023: https://theconversation.com/progress-in-detection-tech-could-render-submarines-useless-by-the-2050s-what-does-it-mean-for-the-aukus-pact-201187 Peter Varghese, “The balance sheet of the nuclear subs deal”, Australian Financial Review, 16 March 2023: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-balance-sheet-of-the-nuclear-subs-deal-20230315-p5csgi Laura Tingle, “Paul Keating can be his own worst enemy but his AUKUS spray raises big questions about China, defence, that have slipped us by”, ABC News, 18 March 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/paul-keating-savage-mouth-aukus-questions-china-defence-slipping/102113150 “Is AUKUS flawed by design?” Net Assessment Podcast, 15 March 2023: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/is-aukus-flawed-by-design/ Joint Statement – 1st Australia-India Annual Summit, 11 March 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-1st-australia-india-annual-summit Peter Hartcher and Matthew Knott, “Red Alert”, Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/red-alert-20230306-p5cpt8.html Margaret Simons, “‘Pretentious’, ‘hyperbolic’ and ‘irresponsible’: what was behind Nine newspapers’ Red Alert series?”, Guaridan Australia, 17 March 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/16/pretentious-hyperbolic-and-irresponsible-what-was-behind-nine-newspapers-red-alert-series Max Seddon, Christopher Miller and Felicia Schwartz, “How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down”, Financial Times, 23 February 2023: https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49 Come From Away (musical): https://comefromaway.com.au/

Marking one year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren reflect on what they have learned, what surprised them, and how they each are thinking about the path ahead. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Ukrainian foreign minister responds to Amanpour's 'painful' question about war” (video), CNN, 21 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tShC67Xp8m8 Olga Oliker, “Fighting While Female: How Gender Dynamics Are Shaping the War in Ukraine”, Foreign Affairs, 21 November 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/fighting-while-female Dominic Johnson et al, “Overconfidence in wargames: experimental evidence on expectations, aggression, gender and testosterone”, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Vol. 273, pp. 2513-2520: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2006.3606 China Matters Oration by the Hon Dr Kevin Rudd AC (video), 18 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rlrkT8BXlg George Winston, “Summer” (1991): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_(George_Winston_album) Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests (Columbia University Press, 2022): http://cup.columbia.edu/book/backfire/9780231199902

The “Chinese spy balloon” has dominated news for the past few weeks and thus Allan and Darren feel compelled to open the episode with their views. FM Penny Wong’s speech in the UK sparked controversy for her comments on colonial history, or did it? Meanwhile, a successful 2+2 with France highlighted how far the relationship has come since a low point in late 2020. DM Richard Marles spoke to parliament on the question of sovereignty and defence capabilities, while International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants to see more development specialists in leadership roles at DFAT. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Chinese balloon part of vast aerial surveillance program, U.S. says”, Washington Post, 7 February 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-intelligence/ Penny Wong, “TV interview with Michael Rowland, ABC News Breakfast”, 6 February 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/tv-interview-michael-rowland-abc-news-breakfast Penny Wong, “An enduring partnership in an era of change”, Speech, Centre for Grand Strategy, King's College, London, 31 January 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/enduring-partnership-era-change Hans van Leeuwen, “Why Wong got a walloping in Britain this week”, Australian Financial Review, 3 February 2023: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-penny-got-a-pounding-in-britain-this-week-20230203-p5chne Richard Marles, “Securing Australia’s Sovereignty”, Statement to Parliament, 9 February 2023: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-02-09/securing-australias-sovereignty Matthew Knot, “‘AUKUS will enhance sovereignty’: Marles dismisses Keating, Turnbull concerns”, Sydney Morning Herald, 8 February 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aukus-will-enhance-sovereignty-marles-dismisses-keating-turnbull-concerns-20230208-p5cj1q.html   Stephen Dziedzic, “International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants AusAID to regain prominence within DFAT”, ABC News, 9 February 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-09/pat-conroy-dfat-wants-development-specialists-ausaid-/101951876 “Anthony Albanese on navigating an insecure world”, Guardian Australia, Australian Politics Podcast, 4 February 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/feb/04/anthony-albanese-on-navigating-an-insecure-world (Podcast Transcript: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/podcast-interview-guardian-australia-politics-podcast ) Annie Ernaux, “The years” (book): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-years-9781609807870 Jim Chalmers, “Capitalism after the crisis”, The Monthly, February 2023: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2023/february/jim-chalmers/capitalism-after-crises#mtr Noah Smith, “Vertical communities”, Noahpinion (substack), 27 January 2023: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/vertical-communities

To kick off 2023, Allan and Darren continue their practice of asking how the events of previous year caused them to update their models of international affairs. But first they discuss PM Albanese's visit to Papua New Guinea and speech to the PNG parliament, and also a curious spat between the ambassadors to Australia from China and Japan, which leads to a larger discussion of different models of ambassador, and what a “Rudd model” might look like now that former PM Kevin Rudd has been named Australia’s next ambassador to the United States. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Anthony Albanese, “A bond between equals”, Speech to the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/bond-between-equals Press conference – Port Moresby, PNG and Australian PMs, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-port-moresby Matthew Knot, “Taiwan cannot be sacrificed to China, says Japan’s ambassador to Australia”, Sydney Morning Herald, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taiwan-cannot-be-sacrificed-to-china-says-japan-s-ambassador-to-australia-20230112-p5cc30.html Embassy of Japan in Australia, Ambassador’s speeches, media contributions, interviews: https://www.au.emb-japan.go.jp/itpr_en/ambassador_media_speech.html Tyson Yunkaporta. Sand Talk: How Indigenous Thinking Can Save the World, Text publishing: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/sand-talk 14 Peaks: Nothing is impossible (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81464765 Free solo (Disney Plus): https://films.nationalgeographic.com/free-solo

Allan and Darren welcome Tim Watts MP, Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs. This is a new role—what does it involve, and how does it contribute to the current global ‘race for influence’? On a personal level, what has the transition into government been like? Given the centrality placed by the Albanese government on identity in Australia’s foreign policy, Darren asks the Minister for his perspective on why it matters. The discussion turns to soft power and the moment when newly elected MP Sam Lim’s first speech to parliament went viral in Malaysia. The conversation then ranges widely. What did the Minister learn on the balance between regional and global during recent trips to South America and Africa? What is needed to upgrade Australia’s “diplomatic fire power”? The point is made that video production skills might be as important as cable writing skills for the modern diplomat! What ideas should Australia be persuading the region about? What does the Minister’s diverse and multicultural electorate think of his job? Does foreign policy have a role in strengthening democracy? And how has the Labor government managed to present a unified position on foreign policy so far? Finally, how does the Minister inform himself beyond what comes through government channels?  Relevant links Tim Watts, ‘The Golden Country: Australia’s Changing Identity’, 2019: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/the-golden-country-australia-s-changing-identity Clare O’Neil and Tim Watts, ‘Two Futures: Australia at a Critical Moment’, 2015: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/two-futures  Penny Wong, ‘Special lecture to the International Institute for Strategic Studies - A shared future: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia’, Singapore, 6 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/special-lecture-international-institute-strategic-studies-shared-future-australia-asean-and-southeast-asia Tim Watts, 'Asialink Leaders Summit opening keynote - Australia’s place in Asia’, Canberra, 16 August 2022: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/tim-watts/speech/asialink-leaders-summit-opening-keynote-australias-place-asia Joseph S. Nye, ‘Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics’, 2005: https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/joseph-s-nye/soft-power/9780786738960/ Sam Lim, ‘First Speech to Parliament’, Canberra, 6 September 2022: https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=588997&operation_mode=parlview Sally Sitou, ‘First Speech to Parliament’, Canberra, 26 July 2022: https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=584964 Tim Watts, ‘First Speech to Parliament’, Canberra, 2 December 2013: https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=212795#/4 National Intelligence Council, ‘Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World’, March 2021: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf Clare O’Neil, ‘Home Affairs and the long view - National Press Club Address’, Canberra, 8 December 2022: https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/ClareONeil/Pages/national-press-club-address.aspx Dimitri Alperovitch, ‘Geopolitics Decanted’: https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/  Damon Gadget, ‘The Promise’, 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-promise-9781529113877 Kabir Khan, ’83’, 2021: https://www.netflix.com/title/81144147

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has delivered (yet) another speech, this time in Washington DC, and Darren thinks it’s a big deal. Is he overreacting? Meanwhile, Allan draws some interesting contrasts analysing the recent 2+2s Australia’s Foreign and Defence Ministers held with their US counterparts (AUSMIN) and then with Japan, and also summarises what we know about the Labor government’s foreign policy so far. Darren’s word of the year is ‘polycrisis’ and he (tries to) explain why, while Allan’s is ‘statecraft’. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Penny Wong, “Speech to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace”, Washington DC, 7 December 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-carnegie-endowment-international-peace Richard Marles, “Sasakawa Peace Foundation Speech”, Tokyo, 9 December 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/speeches/2022-12-09/sasakawa-peace-foundation-speech Doug Palmer, “WTO says Trump's steel tariffs violated global trade rules”, Politico, 9 December 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/wto-ruling-trump-tariffs-violate-rules-00073282 Joint Statement on Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2022: https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/joint-statement-australia-us-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2022 Tenth Japan-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial Consultations, Joint Statement, 9 December 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/tenth-japan-australia-22-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-consultations Penny Wong, “Why I’m imposing sanctions on human rights abusers”, Sydney Morning Herald, 10 December 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/penny-wong-why-i-m-imposing-sanctions-on-human-rights-abusers-20221209-p5c51i.html?btis Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #130 Defining polycrisis - from crisis pictures to the crisis matrix”, 24 June 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-130-defining-polycrisis Reuters, “Factbox: Energy crisis revives coal demand and production”, 20 October 2022: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-crisis-revives-coal-demand-production-2022-10-19/ Tim Schauenberg, “COP27 host Egypt criticized for climate targets, repression”, Deutsche Welle, 6 November 2022: https://www.dw.com/en/cop27-in-sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-human-rights-violations-and-other-issues-making-waves/a-63624720 Guardian Australia, “Penny Wong on stabilising Australia’s relationship with China”, 26 November 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2022/nov/26/penny-wong-on-stabilising-australias-relationship-with-china National Security Podcast, “Gareth Evans on repositioning Australia for a new age of geopolitics”, 1 December 2022: https://www.policyforum.net/national-security-podcast-australias-new-geopolitical-outlook/ Ross Douthat, “Hootie and the Blowfish and the End of History”, New York Times, 9 December 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/opinion/chatbot-hootie-friends.html

While the previous episode came after more than a month, this episode comes just a week later, with the G20 meetings setting the stage for a ground-breaking bilateral meeting between PM Albanese and President Xi, as well as Xi meeting with President Biden. Allan and Darren focus on those two meetings before considering whether the G20 can play a role in geopolitical issues. This past week has also been a big week for speeches, with FM Wong delivering the Whitlam Oration, and DPM Marles speaking at the Australia institute. Speeches are the bread and butter of this podcast, so Allan and Darren dive in. The podcast concludes on a (slightly) optimistic note in the wake of the US midterm elections. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing today and bid farewell with thanks to Atikah Mekki whose time with us has come to an end. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links PM Albanese, Meeting with China’s president Xi Jingping, Media Statement, 15 Nov 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/meeting-chinas-president-xi-jinping Xinhua, “Xi meetgs Australian PM Albanese”, 16 Nov 2022: https://english.news.cn/20221116/17f91337b9c6439aa779d7a03ecc29cb/c.html PM Albanese, Press Conference, Bali, 15 Nov 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-bali-indonesia Ben Herscovitch, “Leader-level meetings and did China just drop its expectations of Australia?”, Beijing to Canberra and Back (Substack), 17 Nov 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/leader-level-meetings-and-did-china “China's President Xi Jinping confronts Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau” (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r96pZRU7zm4 Scott Kennedy, “Xi-Biden Meeting May Help End China’s Destructive Isolation”, Foreign Policy, 14 Nov 2022: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/14/xi-biden-meeting-china-isolation/ G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, 15-16 Nov 2022: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/ Penny Wong, Whitlam Oration, 13 Nov 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/whitlam-oration Richard Marles, Address to the Sydney Institute Annual Dinner Lecture, 14 Nov 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/speeches/2022-11-14/address-sydney-institute-annual-dinner-lecture Sinica (podcast), “The planetary politics of Anne-Marie Slaughter”, 10 Nov 2022: https://thechinaproject.com/2022/11/10/the-planetary-politics-of-anne-marie-slaughter/ Hamish Blake, How Other Dad’s Dad (podcast): https://howotherdadsdad.com/ The 1975, Being funny in a foreign language (album): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Being_Funny_in_a_Foreign_Language Taylor Swift, “Anti-hero” (song): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YgtjHZyCIQ

After a month away, Allan and Darren try to make sense of a big month of news. They start with the Chinese Community Party’s 20th Party Congress, where President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented 3rd term as leader, and (somewhat more surprisingly) was completely successful in elevating loyalists to the Party’s inner leadership circle. Is China just a ‘normal’ authoritarian country now? Next, in what is arguably the most significant policy decision affecting US-China relations in decades, the Biden Administration has imposed sweeping new controls on the export of semiconductors and other advanced technologies to China. These are perceived to be ‘force multipliers’ and thus necessary to curtail China’s military development. The issue is that they are also widely used in commercial technologies, and Beijing will thus perceive this as economic “containment”. Allan talks through the implications for Australia and Darren offers his cost/benefit analysis of the policy. Finally, the past month has also been extremely busy in Australian foreign policy! Allan and Darren opt to focus on Japanese PM Kishida’s visit to Australia and the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation that resulted. Allan explains the history of bilateral cooperation, while Darren uses the Declaration to (begin to) give some form to a theory of Australian foreign policy under the new government. We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Scott Waldron, Darren J. Lim, Victor Ferguson, “Exploring the Domestic Foundations of Chinese Economic Sanctions: The Case of Australia”, China Brief 22(18), October 4, 2022: https://jamestown.org/program/exploring-the-domestic-foundations-of-chinese-economic-sanctions-the-case-of-australia/ Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies (forthcoming): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377 Andrew Nathan, “China’s changing of the guard: Authoritarian resilience”, Journal of democracy 14(1), 2003: https://www.cecc.gov/sites/chinacommission.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/2004/CECC%20Hearing%20Testimony%20-%20Andrew%20Nathan%20additional%20PDF%20-%206.3.04.pdf Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the Special Competitive Studies Project Global Emerging Technologies Summit, 16 September 2022: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/16/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-at-the-special-competitive-studies-project-global-emerging-technologies-summit/ Darren Lim and Victor Ferguson, “Conscious decoupling: The technology security dilemma”, China Dreams (China Story Yearbook 2019): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3484171 Zack Cooper, “he fundamental tension in Biden’s national security strategy”, Channel News Asia, 29 October 2022: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/us-biden-national-security-strategy-russia-china-asia-3030556 Isabella Keith, “11 November 2022: The Week in Australian Foreign Affairs”, Australian Outlook, 11 November 2022: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/11-november-2022-the-week-in-australian-foreign-affairs/ Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, 22 October 2022: https://www.dfat.gov.au/countries/japan/australia-japan-joint-declaration-security-cooperation Anthony Albanese and Kishida Fumio, Opening remarks – Australia Japan Leaders’ Meeting, 22 October 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/opening-remarks-australia-japan-leaders-meeting Everything everywhere all at once (film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_Everywhere_All_at_Once Michael Wesley, “The war in Ukraine: implications for Asia”, Lowy Interpreter, 28 October 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/war-ukraine-implications-asia George Packer, “Ukrainians are defending the values Americans claim to hold”, The Atlantic, 6 September 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazi

Ukraine has made significant battlefield gains in the past month, changing the dynamics of the Russian invasion, leading to a partial Russian troop mobilisation and threats by Vladimir Putin of tactical nuclear weapons use. Allan and Darren talk through these dynamics, in particular Putin’s decision-making calculus and what the rest of the world must do to deter nuclear escalation, including the uncomfortable possibility that NATO’s interests and  Ukraine’s interests could diverge in the future. FM Penny Wong led the Australian delegation to the United National General Assembly Meetings in New York. Allan and Darren begin with the welcoming speech of Secretary General António Guterres, discussing whether the office of the SG and the UN remain relevant in the current fractured geopolitical landscape. Then they turn to Australia’s statement to UNGA, delivered by Penny Wong, and how it was similar to, and different from, previous statements in recent years. One notable focus this year was on First Nations Australians. Finally, having recently participated in a “Track 1.5” dialogue, Allan reflects on the purpose and function of this type of diplomacy. We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  Relevant links “Read Putin’s national address on a partial military mobilization”, Washington Post, 21 September 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-war-mobilization/  Gideon Rachman, “Putin’s nuclear threats cannot be ignored”, Financial Times, 26 September 2022: https://www.ft.com/content/25862f8d-d6de-48c7-a892-091e5f909734 Rohan Mukherjee, “China and India weren’t critical of Putin’s war. Did that change?”, Washington Post, 26 September 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/26/putin-ukraine-china-india-xi-modi/ António Guterres, Secretary-General's address to the General Assembly, 20 September 2022: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2022-09-20/secretary-generals-address-the-general-assembly Mark Beeson, “Guterres whistles in the wind”, Lowy Interpreter, 21 September 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/guterres-whistles-wind Penny Wong, National Statement to the UN General Assembly, New York, 23 September 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/statements/national-statement-un-general-assembly-new-york  Julie Bishop, Australia's National Statement - United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2017: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/julie-bishop/speech/australias-national-statement-united-nations-general-assembly  Marise Payne, National Statement - United Nations General Assembly, 28 September 2018: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/national-statement-united-nations-general-assembly Quarterly Essay, “Uncivil wars”, QE 87, September 2022: https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/09/uncivil-wars “On The Air with Gerry Anderson: Hypno Hen” (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TOR895yhIw

In this episode Darren picks up on a comment Allan has made several times on the podcast (including the previous episode) about the need for the Australian government to make a formal statement on China. To Allan this is a statement of the obvious, but the two find a surprising amount to disagree upon on the merits of the Prime Minister or Foreign Minister giving a major speech on Australia’s relationship with China. Allan outlines the benefits and how a speech might be structured, while Darren worries about the risks, and contrasts different approaches in speeches from the US Secretary of State and the Singaporean Prime Minister. The episode concludes by noting the death of Australia’s Head of State, Queen Elizabeth II, and some thoughts on the role of the monarch in Australian foreign policy. We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links OHCHR Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China, 31 August 2022: https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/country-reports/ohchr-assessment-human-rights-concerns-xinjiang-uyghur-autonomous-region Penny Wong, “Human rights concerns in Xinjiang”, Ministerial Statement, 1 September 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/statements/human-rights-concerns-xinjiang Chinese Embassy Spokesperson’s Remarks on the Ministerial statement on human rights in Xinjiang by DFAT, 6 September 2022: http://au.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sghdxwfb_1/202209/t20220906_10762674.htm Stuart Doran, “Australia refused to endorse China’s claim to Taiwan in 1972 because it foresaw a time like this”, ASPI Strategist, 7 September 2022: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-refused-to-endorse-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-in-1972-because-it-foresaw-a-time-like-this/ Secretary Blinken Speech: The Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China, Washington DC, 26 May 2022: https://au.usembassy.gov/secretary-blinken-speech-the-administrations-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china/ PM Lee Hsien Loong at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2019, 31 May 2019: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-at-the-IISS-Shangri-La-Dialogue-2019 European Commission and HR/VP contribution to the European Council, “EU-China – A strategic outlook”, 12 March 2019: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/communication-eu-china-a-strategic-outlook.pdf Scott Morrison, “Speech at Chinese-Australian Community Event”, 4 October 2018: https://china.embassy.gov.au/bjng/181005pmspeech.html Andrew Sullivan, “An icon, not an idol”, The Weekly Dish (Substack), 10 September 2022: https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/an-icon-not-an-idol-71f The rest is politics (podcast): https://shows.acast.com/the-rest-is-politics Mark Harrison, “Correspondence: Sleepwalk to war - Quarterly Essay”, 10 September 2022: https://twitter.com/mhar4/status/1568467164616871937?s=12&t=KFYS6frsFPq3VstL5iW0iQ Rory Medcalf, “Correspondence: Sleepwalk to war - Quarterly Essay”, 8 September 2022: https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/department-news/20571/sleepwalk-war-correspondence Kevin Rudd, “Correspondence: Sleepwalk to war - Quarterly Essay”, 8 September 2022: https://www.kevinrudd.com/media/correspondence-sleepwalk-to-war-quarterly-essay   Sam Lim MP, First Speech to Parliament, 6 September 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gEYwSAjaeM Dai Le MP, First Speech to Parliament, 6 September 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORkHpdYZezY Keith Wolahan MP, First Speech to Parliament, 6 September 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iCPnV2sIw4

Taiwan represents possibly the most intractable issue in international affairs, but also one of the most important. Arguably, no theory or opinion on the biggest questions Australian foreign policy can be complete, or maybe even credible, until it grapples with the Taiwan issue. And so on this episode Allan and Darren use the occasion of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island to sort through their views. Be warned, this is a long and wonkish episode! But more so than perhaps anything else discussed on the podcast, Taiwan requires the time and space to lay out one’s views and have them challenged. The episode concludes with a quick update on Australia-China relations, given the Chinese Ambassador’s recent speech at the National Press Club. We bid farewell Annabel Howard and thank her so much for all her help, and welcome Atikah Mekki and thank her for audio editing today, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links James Fearon, “Rationalist explanations for war”, International Organization, Volume 49 Issue 3 (1995): https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to War: Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay, 27 June 2022: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/sleepwalk-war Michael Beckley, Zack Cooper, and Allison Schwartz, “Deterring Coercion and Conflict Across the Taiwan Strait”, American Enterprise Institute: https://www.defendingtaiwan.com/deterring-coercion-and-conflict-across-the-taiwan-strait/ James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Taiwan’s Navy: Able to Deny Command of the Sea?”, China Brief Volume 10, Issue 8 (2010): https://jamestown.org/program/taiwans-navy-able-to-deny-command-of-the-sea/ Bonnie Glaser and Zack Cooper, “Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous” New York Times, 28 July 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html Ben Herscovitch, “Australia’s shifting statements on Taiwan, China’s changed tone, and coal exports”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 4 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias-shifting-statements-on Ambassador Xiao Qian, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China, Speech to National Press Club (video), 10 August 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXeHRtmWJ68 China's ambassador to Australia addresses National Press Club ⁠— as it happened (Live Blog), ABC News, 10 August 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/live-updates-xiao-qian-addresses-national-press-club/101318252 Ben Herscovitch, “Beijing (re)embraces one-China disinformation plus aggregate leader-level meetings”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 31 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/beijing-reembraces-one-china-disinformation Gatra Priyandita, Dirk Van Der Kley and Ben Herscovitch, “Localization and China’s Tech Success in Indonesia”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 July 2022: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/11/localization-and-china-s-tech-success-in-indonesia-pub-87477 Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: US foreign policy and the perilous logic of zero-sum competition”, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-trap-us-foreign-policy-zero-sum-competition The Sandman (TV): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81150303

For the 100th episode of Australia in the World, Allan and Darren welcome Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Penny Wong. Allan begins by asking the Minister “why this job?” given her heavy additional responsibilities, and how she is able to carve out “thinking time” given the non-stop nature of her role. The hosts are thrilled to hear that Senator Wong listens to the podcast, and even listened to recent episode where her own speeches were discussed! Darren raises her Kuala Lumpur speech with a question about the links between Australia’s interests and its evolving modern identity. He then harks back to the Senator’s first speech to the Australian Parliament, delivered in August 2002, to ask whether compassion – a central theme in that first speech – might play a role in managing some of Australia’s most difficult relationships. He then asks what role foreign policy might play in boosting public trust in democratic institutions at home. The conversation turns to DFAT, and how Australia’s diplomatic capability can best be augmented given most Commonwealth Government departments have international footprints. Darren cannot resist asking about Senate Estimates hearings, including the balance professional bureaucrats must strike between secrecy and accountability. Allan turns the conversation to agency – a long-running theme of the podcast – to ask whether and how foreign policy outcomes can be different under the new government. Allan also asks about how Australia can balance its regional versus global interests. We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. We also thank all the previous AIIA interns who have provided essential support to the podcast over the past four years. Allan and Darren also wish to express their heartfelt gratitude to listeners to this podcast. The only reason we reached our 100th episode is because of the encouragement, interest and feedback we have received from an audience that has continued to grow. We found an engaged and informed community of people who share our conviction that Australian foreign policy matters for everything we want to do as a country. We could not be more grateful for your support. Thank you. Relevant links Senator the Hon Penny Wong, First Speech to Parliament, 21 August 2022: https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F2002-08-21%2F0106%22;src1=sm1

Allan and Darren begin this episode by stepping back from a very busy first two months of foreign policy for the new government. If one were to build a model of the making of Australian foreign policy, what could we learn from from this particular case study and how would it stand out? Turning to events, the analysis begins with PM Albanese’s trip to Europe for the NATO summit, then turns to the travels and speeches of FM Wong and DM Marles, including Wong’s important meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali. Next they turn to the recent Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Suva and the withdrawal of Kiribati from the grouping, and finish with a discussion of the latest Lowy Institute Poll. We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Penny Wong, “Keynote address in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia”, 29 June 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/keynote-address-kuala-lumpur-malaysia Penny Wong, “Special lecture to the International Institute for Strategic Studies - A shared future: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia”, 6 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/special-lecture-international-institute-strategic-studies-shared-future-australia-asean-and-southeast-asia Penny Wong, “Meeting with China’s State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi”, Media release, 8 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/meeting-chinas-state-councilor-and-minister-foreign-affairs-wang-yi “Wang Yi Meets with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC”, 9 July 2022: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202207/t20220710_10718115.html Press Conference (Transcript), Prime Minister and Treasurer, 11 July 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-parliament-house-canberra Jocelyn Chey, “When words matter: Reviewing the Wong-Wang meeting”, Pearls and Irritations, 13 July 2022: https://johnmenadue.com/when-words-matter-reviewing-the-wong-wang-meeting/ Richard Marles, “Speech: National Defence College New Delhi, India”, 22 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/speech-national-defence-college-new-delhi-india Richard Marles, “Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)”, 12 July 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/address-center-strategic-and-international-studies-csis Lowy Institute Poll: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/ Bruce Miller, “For all his nationalism, Abe was a true globalist and statesman”, Australian Financial Review, 10 July 2022: https://www.afr.com/world/asia/for-all-his-nationalism-abe-was-a-true-globalist-and-statesman-20220710-p5b0g4 Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to war: Australia’s Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay 86, June 2022: https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/06/sleepwalk-to-war “Gurrumul - Bayini ft. Sarah Blasko” (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yDrbbNF89E “Reimagining and realising our future”, Youth National Security Strategy: https://strategy.ynss.org/ Victor Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren Lim, “Market adjustments to import sanctions: lessons from Chinese restrictions on Australian trade, 2020–21”, Review of International Political Economy, 7 July 2022: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019

The new Labor government has begun its term with a whirlwind of activity for Australia in the World. Allan and Darren begin their analysis with the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Defence Minister Richard Marles gave his first major speech and met with his Chinese counterpart. Next comes Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to Indonesia, Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s visits to Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, and the episode finishes with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s controversial disclosures regarding AUKUS negotiations, and news of a financial settlement over the aborted French submarine deal. We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Richard Marles, “Address: IISS 19th Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore”, 11 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/address-iiss-19th-shangri-la-dialogue-singapore Richard Marles, “Press conference, IISS Asia Security Summit, Singapore” 12 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/transcripts/press-conference-iiss-asia-security-summit-singapore Remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (As Delivered), 11 June 2022: https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3059852/remarks-at-the-shangri-la-dialogue-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-a/ “China will fight to the very end to stop Taiwan independence: Defence minister | Shangri-La Dialogue”, General Wei Fenghe speech at Shangri-La Dialogue (video), 12 June 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_KMS5proso Anthony Albanese, “Address to Hasanuddin University”, 7 June 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-hasanuddin-university Penny Wong, “Speech to the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat”, Suva, 26 May 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-pacific-islands-forum-secretariat Peter Dutton, “Labor must not torpedo crucial submarine plan”, The Australian, 8 June 2022: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/labor-must-not-torpedo-crucial-submarine-plan/news-story/bfe37713892d105203cdca255d86743c

With Australia's federal election results (mostly) known and a new Prime Minister and Foreign Minister sworn in, Allan and Darren examine the meaning of the election and what lies ahead for Australia in the world. As they first discussed in 2019 (episode 19), it is the practice of all government departments to prepare an “incoming government brief”: a document presented to the new (or returning) minister for each department, for the purpose of providing a descriptive overview of what the department does, and highlighting the most important issues facing that particular portfolio as the new term commences. Allan and Darren offer their own thoughts on these matters in this episode.  However, the election result itself is significant in its own right, so before discussing the path ahead for the new Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the specific challenges facing Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Allan and Darren offer their own analysis of the result - both those factors specific to Australia but also what it might mean in a broader comparative context.  We thank Dominique Yap for helping out with audio editing today, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Transcript, Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, "Quad Leaders’ Summit; Australia’s relationship with China; Solomon Islands; Russia; Taiwan; AUKUS; climate change", Tokyo, 24 May 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-0  The Jezabels, Ten Year Anniversary Tour: https://thejezabels.com/live/  The Girl from the North Country: https://www.northcountry.com.au/

With Australia’s federal election to be held this Saturday, Allan and Darren conduct a quick discussion of the role foreign policy has played over the past month during the campaign, and what we can learn regardless of who will form government. Then, to finish, eyebrows are raised in response to reporting detailing secret conversations between very senior Australian and US national security officials regarding AUKUS and the US' need for bipartisan support for the deal within Australia.   We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Kishor Napier-Raman, “An oddly civil election debate, before Dutton finds a warship-shaped dead cat”, Crikey, 13 May 2022: https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/13/an-oddly-civil-election-debate/ Little Red Podcast, “Kevin Rudd: Is War With China Inevitable?”, 28 April 2022: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/kevin-rudd-is-war-with-china-inevitable Nick Bisley, Robyn Eckersley, Shahar Hameiri, Jessica Kirk, George Lawson & Benjamin Zala (2022) For a progressive realism: Australian foreign policy in the 21st century, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 76:2, 138-160: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2022.2051428 Asia-Pacific Development Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue: https://www.asiapacific4d.com/ Peter Hartcher, “Radioactive: Inside the top-secret AUKUS subs deal”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/radioactive-inside-the-top-secret-aukus-subs-deal-20220510-p5ak7g.html   Peter Hartcher, “Biden demanded bipartisan support before signing AUKUS. Labor was not told for months”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/national/biden-demanded-bipartisan-support-before-signing-aukus-labor-was-not-told-for-months-20220513-p5al9d.html   Peter Hartcher,  “AUKUS fallout: double-dealing and deception came at a diplomatic cost”, Sydney Morning Herald, 15 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/national/aukus-fallout-double-dealing-and-deception-came-at-a-diplomatic-cost-20220513-p5al95.html Linda Jaivin, The shortest history of China, Black Inc: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/shortest-history-china Yun Jiang, Rethinking China (video), 8 May 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=462TgDdgEcE Ezra Klein Show, "What does the ‘post-liberal right’ actually want?", Interview with Patrick Deneen, 13 May 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-patrick-deneen.html Pekingology podcast, “Foreign and Security Policymaking in Xi Jinping’s China”, Interview with Suisheng Zhao, 6 May 2022: https://www.csis.org/node/65210

Foreign policy has been thrust to the forefront of the Australian election campaign, with the announcement this week that Solomon Islands and China have officially signed a security agreement. Allan and Darren talk through the background, logic, politics and implications of the deal. Their core focus is on Solomon Islands itself – the interests of the government in entering this agreement and the risks, what Australia has done and could in future do to protect its own interests, and what the pact might mean for the region’s security into the future. We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.   Relevant links Bill Birtles, Stephen Dziedzic and Evan Wasuka, “China and Solomon Islands sign security pact, Beijing says it is 'not directed at any third party' amid Pacific influence fears”, ABC News, 20 April 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/china-and-solomon-islands-sign-security-pact-says-chinese-foreig/101000530 Marise Payne and Zed Seselja, “Statement on Solomon Islands”, 25 March 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-solomon-islands Joanne Wallis and Czeslaw Tubilewicz, “Saying China ‘bought’ a military base in the Solomons is simplistic and shows how little Australia understands power in the Pacific”, The Conversation, 25 March 2022: https://theconversation.com/saying-china-bought-a-military-base-in-the-solomons-is-simplistic-and-shows-how-little-australia-understands-power-in-the-pacific-180020 Prime Minister - Transcript - Press Conference - Tonsley, SA, 20 April 2022: https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/20/prime-minister-transcript-press-conference-tonsley-sa China Solomon Islands Security Agreement and Blue Pacific InSecurities (Youtube video), 21 April 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBJjlc5hb2k David Crowe and Eryk Bagshaw, “China could have Solomon Islands military base within four weeks”, Sydney Morning Herald, 20 April 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-could-have-solomon-islands-military-base-within-four-weeks-20220420-p5aevc.html Sam and Lawrence Freedman, “Comment is Freed” newsletter: https://samf.substack.com/ Bruno Macaes, “A war of world-building”, The City Journal, 3 April 2022: https://www.city-journal.org/a-war-of-world-building

Both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese delivered pre-election foreign policy speeches this month, and this episode analyses them together. Relevant links “An address by PM Scott Morrison”, Lowy Institute, 7 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-prime-minister-scott-morrison Scott Morrison, “Virtual address, AFR Business Summit”, 7 March 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/virtual-address-afr-business-summit “An address by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese”, Lowy Institute, 10 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-opposition-leader-anthony-albanese Graeme Wood, “Absolute power”, The Atlantic, 3 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/04/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-palace-interview/622822/ “American Utopia” (trailer): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg4hcgtjDPc David Byrne, “One fine day” (live), Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/0mig4WeZbQ9FSxf50Ta9Eo

With the world watching in shock at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren describe how the crisis, and in particular the world’s response, are (and are not) causing them to reconsider their priors about how politics and international affairs works. Allan describes how impressed he has been with Europe’s response, while Darren is completely surprised at the speed and magnitude of the economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia, in particular its central bank. Meanwhile, Allan reflects on the contingency of the Biden presidency, wondering how things would have been different had Donald Trump been president and what that says about the variability of the United States as a factor in world politics. Darren considers the responses of regional powers such as China, India and the ASEAN countries. Finally, they discuss early implications for Australia. Relevant links Anne Applebaum, “The impossible suddenly became possible”, The Atlantic, 2 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ China Talk (podcast), “The new old cold war with Tooze and Klein”, 1 March 2022: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/the-new-old-cold-war-with-tooze-and?s=r Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #89 Russia’s financial meltdown and the global dollar system”, 28 February 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-89-russias-financial-meltdown?s=r Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1987) “Power and interdependence revisited”, International Organization 41(4): 725-753. http://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/Keohane%20Nye%201987.pdf Patrick McKenzie, “Moving money internationally”, Bits about money (newsletter), 2 March 2022: https://bam.kalzumeus.com/archive/moving-money-internationally/ Paul Kelly, “Morrison’s Mission: A Lowy Institute Paper”, Penguin Specials, February 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/morrisons-mission-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9780143778042 The Ezra Klein Show, “Can the West stop Russia by strangling its economy (with Adam Tooze), 1 March 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-adam-tooze.html

Australia will have a federal election in a few months, but Allan and Darren are sceptical that substantive foreign policy debates will feature during the campaign. Accordingly, this episode they decide to have their own debate to try to help listeners think through some of the important issues that will (probably) be ignored. They consider four central questions that will shape the future of Australia in the world, and try to offer their best arguments for and against each proposition. The questions are: Assuming a fixed funding envelope containing defence and foreign policy, Australia should shift resources and attention from the defence portfolio into foreign affairs. Australia needs a “reset” in its relations with Beijing and Canberra should be the one to initiate concessions. The specific proposal is that the Australian government adopt a policy of not commenting on China-specific human rights issues – Xinjiang, Tibet, and other domestic repressions. AUKUS, a scaled up 5 Eyes, and the Quad form the fundamentals of a new Australian architecture for engaging the world, and should be given priority over multilateralism. Assuming a fixed funding envelope, foreign policy resources should be shifted away from the South Pacific and into Southeast Asia. Most importantly, Allan and Darren do not necessarily offer their own views on the individual questions, but the best argument each can muster, whether it coincides with their opinions or not. Moreover, they deliberately swap sides across the questions and probably contradict themselves in the process. So, please, no quoting us out of context! The questions are framed in terms of concrete policy agendas where there could, in principle at least, be coherent and substantive disagreement. The questions avoid “more” propositions that posit “we need to do more” or “we need to spend more” since, by themselves, such propositions do not acknowledge the trade-offs. The questions also concern issues that relate as much as possible to the foreign and defence policy realms, and are not intimately linked with domestic issues that would unavoidably shape the debate. This means two major omissions – climate change and border protection. Once the ‘formal’ debate is over, Allan and Darren conclude by discussing the underlying themes that tie the questions together and which likely shape one’s perspective on Australia in the world. We bid farewell to Mitchell McIntosh and give our most heartfelt thanks for his contributions to making the podcast a success. We welcome Annabel Howard, and thank her for her help this week. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links James Wise, “The Costs of Discounted Diplomacy” ASPI Strategic Insights Report #168, February 2022: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/costs-discounted-diplomacy Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue, Australia and SoutheastAsia: Shaping a Shared Future (Canberra 2022): www.asiapacific4d.com Ian Bremmer, “The Technopolar Moment: How Digital Powers Will Reshape the Global Order”, Foreign Affairs, November/ December 2021: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/ian-bremmer-big-tech-global-order

Allan and Darren venture far outside their comfort zones this week to give some thoughts on the escalating crisis between Russia, Ukraine and NATO. This is an interesting and important issue because it brings together so many of the central questions in international relations. These include: the use of military coercion and other forms of deterrence; the behaviour of great powers, the role of diplomacy and signalling; the links between strategic and economic interests; the politics of the transatlantic relationship; the role of alliances; and the practical meaning of norms like ‘sovereignty’ and ‘self-determination’. While not all of these can be covered in depth in a single episode, they all inform Allan and Darren as they offer initial opinions of the strategic context and stakes involved. These events are important to Australia because of their potential impact on the international order and, in particular, America’s role in it. Along the way, the discussion covers the specific phenomenon of “spheres of influence”, the geoeconomic dimensions, and whether there is any scope at all for for multilateral organisations to contribute. The episode finishes by looking at how the Australian government has responded and thinking about what Beijing’s perspective might be.   Relevant links Adam Tooze, “Putin’s challenge to western hegemony – the 2022 edition”, Chartbook newsletter #68, 12 January 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to Ross Douthat, “How to retreat from Ukraine”, New York Times, 22 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-nato.html Francis Fukuyama, “Why Ukraine matters”, American Purpose, 24 January 2022: https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-matters/ Rob Lee, “Moscow’s compellence strategy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 18 January 2022: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/ Greg Earl, “Bitcoin vs the IMF, and other great expectations”, Lowy Interpreter, 27 January 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bitcoin-vs-imf-and-other-great-expectations Plain English podcast, “The Biggest Losers of the Streaming Wars: ESPN, Movie Theatres, Peacock, and More”, 18 January 2022: https://www.theringer.com/2022/1/18/22888915/the-biggest-losers-of-the-streaming-wars-espn-movie-theaters-peacock-and-more   (Other interesting readings, in chronological order) Tyler Cowen, “What Will Putin Do Next? Game Theory Offers Some Clues”, Bloomberg, 19 January 2022: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-19/what-will-putin-do-next-time-for-some-game-theory “What would a Ukraine conflict look like” Rachman Review Podcast, 20 January 2022: https://overcast.fm/+2IlRysJbY Edward Fishman and Chris Miller, “The Russia Sanctions That Could Actually Stop Putin”, Politico, 21 January 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/21/russia-sanctions-stop-putin-energy-markets-us-invasion-527524 Noah Smith, “Why is Ukraine such an economic failure”, Noahpinion newsletter, 23 January 2022: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure Fiona Hill, “Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It”, New York Times, 24 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?referringSource=articleShare Michael Kofman, “Putin’s wager in Russia’s standoff with the west”, War on the Rocks, 24 January 2022: https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/ Daniel Drezner, “On deterring Russia”, Washington Post, 26 January 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/26/deterring-russia/ Center for Defense Strategies, “How likely is large-scale war in Ukraine?”, The Kyiv Independent, 29 January 2022: https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-how-probable-is-large-scale-war-in-ukraine-analysis/ Kyle Wilson, “Putin’s NATO power play stirs disquiet among Russia’s security elite”, ASPI S

For their first episode in 2022, Allan and Darren look back over the past 12 months, starting with the international landscape and then focusing on Australia. First up, what big lesson did 2021 teach them? Interestingly, both focus on the United States in their answers--but how much is domestic dysfunction in the US actually affecting Biden’s foreign policy? Second, did the world’s experience with COVID-19 over the past year affect any of the major trends in international affairs? While at the end of 2020 there seemed to be a clear dividing line between ‘competent’ and ‘incompetent’ government responses, that distinction appears far less clear a year later. Third, what other notable trends emerged or crystallised across the year? For Allan, signs of a reversal of the long period called “the great convergence” are quite concerning, while for Darren the big picture structural trends are mostly unchanged.  The same questions are asked about Australia. Allan (cheekily?) describes 2021 as Australia’s response to a ‘fear of abandonment’, while Darren is interested in how the change in US administration affected foreign policy rhetoric from the Morrison government. Looking forward to 2022, both Allan and Darren offer both expectations and hopes for the coming year, internationally and for Australia. Both expect that 2022 will be a calmer and more stable year--how quickly might they be proven wrong? On that cheerful note, a happy new year to all! Relevant links COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic by The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness & Response, May 2021: https://theindependentpanel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COVID-19-Make-it-the-Last-Pandemic_final.pdf Anne Applebaum, “The kleptocrats next door”, The Atlantic, 8 December 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/american-kleptocracy-kleptopia-united-states-dirty-money/620852/ Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright, Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order (St Martin’s Press, 2021): https://www.brookings.edu/books/aftershocks-pandemic-politics-and-the-end-of-the-old-international-order/ Anthea Roberts and Nicolas Lamp, Six Faces of Globalization: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why It Matters (Harvard University Press, 2021): https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674245952

In their final episode for 2021, Allan and Darren kick things off by discussing President Biden’s “Summit for Democracy”. Having debated the merits of democracy as a foreign policy organising principle in Episode 77, they now ask: was the actual summit a net positive, despite controversies prior to and during proceedings? It seems clear Beijing was displeased, but Allan and Darren partially disagree on whether a “competition of systems” is the right frame to understand these dynamics. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken rolled out the Biden administration’s much-anticipated Indo-Pacific Strategy – but was there much there? Next up, PM Scott Morrison hosted South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, the first visit of a foreign leader to Australia since borders closed. Was this a significant visit, and was it more about geopolitics, or economics? How much scope is there for cooperation between Australia and South Korea? Third, Australia does appear to be participating in a political boycott of the Beijing Olympics, but PM Morrison’s announcement of this decision was rather unorthodox. What’s going on, and can such boycotts be effective? Darren is interested in how the case of Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai is elevating public visibility of human rights issues, creating extra pressure on Beijing, and the International Olympic Committee (IOC), as the February games approach. Finally, both the Olympic boycott and, prior to that, the momentous AUKUS decision were not announced to the public with speeches or formal statements. Is this a growing trend in the public articulation of Australian foreign policy? Does it matter? Best wishes for the holiday season to all, we’ll be back in 2022! Relevant links US Department of State, “Summit for Democracy”: https://www.state.gov/further-information-the-summit-for-democracy/#Summit “Joe Biden’s Summit for Democracy is not all that democratic”, The Economist, 6 December 2021: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/12/06/joe-bidens-summit-for-democracy-is-not-all-that-democratic Humeyra Pamuk and Michael Martina, David Brunnstrom, “The curious case of a map and a disappearing Taiwan minister at U.S. democracy summit”, Reuters, 13 December 2021: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/curious-case-map-disappearing-taiwan-minister-us-democracy-summit-2021-12-12/ Scott Morrison, “Virtual address: Summit for democracy”, 11 December 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/virtual-address-summit-democracy Jessica Brandt, tweet regarding Hamilton 2.0 dashboard data on Chinese mentions of democracy summit, 13 December 2021: https://twitter.com/jessbrandt/status/1470432173199134722 Mareike Ohlberg and Bonnie Glaser, “Why China Is Freaking Out Over Biden’s Democracy Summit”, Foreign Policy, 10 December 2021: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/10/china-response-biden-democracy-summit/ National Security Podcast, “How the Chinese Communist Party sees China’s place in the world”, 9 December 2021: https://www.policyforum.net/national-security-podcast-how-the-chinese-communist-party-sees-chinas-place-in-the-world/ Xi Jinping, “What's the fundamental reason for China's growing strength? in Governance of China: https://www.cgtn.com/how-china-works/news/2021-05-05/What-s-the-fundamental-reason-for-China-s-growing-strength--ZZS93ixp2E/share.html Lowy Institute Poll, “Democracy”: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/themes/democracy/ Secretary Blinken’s Remarks on a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Fact Sheet, US Department of State, 13 December 2021: https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-secretary-blinkens-remarks-on-a-free-and-open-indo-pacific/ PM Morrison and President Moon, Joint Press Conference transcript, 13 December 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-32 Stephen Dziedzic, “Is South Korean President Moon Jae-in's visit more about geopolitics or commerce?”, ABC News, 14 December 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-14/south-korea-president-moon-jae-in-visit-analysis/1

This week Allan and Darren open their discussion with the Biden-Xi virtual meeting. It went for a long time, the atmosphere seemed cordial – is this enough for (some) optimism about the trajectory of US-China relations? Allan thinks so, while Darren cannot resist the temptation to offer an IR theory perspective and explain that the game theoretic concept of “deadlock” might best capture the bulk of US-China relations at present. Next, Allan and Darren analyse two recent speeches from Australian political leaders. To begin, in an interview Defence Minister Peter Dutton described as “inconceivable” that Australia would not support the US in an action to defend Taiwan, doubling down on this position in a speech to the National Press Club. In between, Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong critiqued the Dutton position in a speech at the ANU. What is the logic of Dutton’s explicit language? Does it affect strategic dynamics? While the government is often outspoken about China, ministers also regularly pass up the chance to say more – how is the choice to speak out calculated? Meanwhile, Darren sees a national security politics "minefield" in efforts to critique governments as being too hawkish, but both he and Allan judge that Wong's speech was able to do it effectively, while introducing several other interesting ideas as well. The next topic is the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. Allan’s assessment of the outcome is mixed, while Darren focuses on how difficult multilateral negotiations must be, especially because negotiators enter with high ambitions that may never be achieved because of the need for compromise. He thus understands why the conference president Alok Sharma shed tears of disappointment, but understands that a willingness to be disappointed, but nevertheless keep going, is essential. Finally, Australia is deploying police and troops to Solomon Islands given unfolding unrest. Allan provides the historical context to this decision (the RAMSI mission) while Darren wonders whether the China angle is meaningful. Relevant links The White House, Readout of President Biden’s Virtual Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China, 16 November 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/16/readout-of-president-bidens-virtual-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/ Vincent Ni, “Biden-Xi summit highlights tensions – and desire for cooperation” The Guardian, 16 Nov 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/16/biden-xi-summit-highlights-tensions-and-desire-for-cooperation Lily Kuo, “China lauds Biden-Xi summit as start of more equal relationship, despite lack of real progress”, Washington Post, 16 November 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/xi-biden-summit-china-reaction/2021/11/16/f28cd98e-4657-11ec-beca-3cc7103bd814_story.html Troy Bramston, “Taiwan defence a must: Dutton”, The Australian, 13 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defending-taiwan-against-beijing-is-a-must-says-peter-dutton/news-story/ef9dd7fd56515afbdc90021760d1d344 Penny Wong, “Expanding Australia’s Power and Influence: Speech to the National Security College”, Australian National University, Canberra, 23 November 2021: https://www.pennywong.com.au/media-hub/speeches/expanding-australia-s-power-and-influence-speech-to-the-national-security-college-australian-national-university-canberra-23-11-2021/ Peter Dutton, National Press Club Address, Canberra, ACT, 26 November 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/national-press-club-address-canberra-act Mark Thirlwell, “An initial assessment of COP26’, Australian Institute of Company Directors, 17 November 2021: https://aicd.companydirectors.com.au/advocacy/chief-economist/an-initial-assessment-of-cop26 “COP26: Alok Sharma fights back tears as Glasgow Climate Pact agreed”, BBC Video, 13 November 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-59276651 Alexan

Allan and Darren cannot resist focusing on the escalated and seemingly personal spat between Australian PM Scott Morrison and French President Emmanuel Macron over Australia’s cancellation of the French submarine contract, then followed by the launch of AUKUS. During Morrison's recent international trip, Macron called him a liar, to which the Australian side responded by leaking details of private text messages the French president had sent the PM just days prior to the announcement. In Morrison’s words: “claims were made, claims were refuted”. Who is in the right/wrong here? Stepping back, what is the role of honesty and integrity, or truth and trust, in international diplomacy? How much does it matter? Along the way, Darren finds the temptation to develop a potted academic theory of a “Morrison doctrine” too strong to pass up. Let the debate begin! We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.          Relevant links Cameron Stewart, “How Biden threw PM under the bus”, The Australian, 2 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/how-joe-biden-threw-scott-morrison-under-the-bus/news-story/5dde5b5f35ef17842d83a1f4d74f83a1 Samantha Maiden, “Who is really lying in Scott Morrison, Emmanuel Macron’s French submarine feud”, Daily Telegraph, 2 November 2021:  https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/work/who-is-really-lying-in-scott-morrison-emmanuel-macrons-french-submarine-feud/news-story/f77df0b11df50eee5d07e681a2ef749d   Phillip Coorey, “‘I don’t like losing’: Macron ‘knew’ the subs contract was in peril”, Australian Financial Review, 1 November 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/i-don-t-like-losing-macron-knew-the-subs-contract-was-in-peril-20211101-p594xr    Stephen Dziedzic and Georgia Hitch “French ambassador says leaking of text messages between Scott Morrison and Emmanuel Macron 'unprecedented new low'”, ABC News, 3 November 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-03/french-ambassador-jean-pierre-thebault-submarines/100590382   Jake Evans, “Scott Morrison refuses to apologise to President Emmanuel Macron after claims PM lied about submarine deal”, ABC News, 3 November 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-03/scott-morrison-refuses-to-apologise-to-macron/100590506 Diplomacy by Harold Nicolson (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1678410.Diplomacy Marise Payne “Inaugural Australia-France 2+2 Ministerial Consultations”, 30 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/inaugural-australia-france-22-ministerial-consultations Daniel Hurst, “Scrapping submarines deal broke trust, Macron tells Australian PM”, The Guardian, 28 October 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/france-seeks-tangible-actions-from-australia-after-submarines-row Andrew Tillett, “Defence admits it is looking at back-up plan for French subs deal”, Australian Financial Review, 2 June 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/defence-admits-it-is-looking-at-back-up-plan-for-french-subs-deal-20210602-p57xdu Paul Kelly, “Morrison had to hurt France to get AUKUS subs deal”, The Australian, 3 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/morrison-had-to-hurt-france-to-get-aukus-subs-deal/news-story/7e839a998e2bb7faee42334afae724ce Andrew Probyn, “Scott Morrison rejects French President's criticism over handling of scrapped submarine project”, ABC News, 1 November 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-01/scott-morrison-rejects-emmanuel-macrons-accusations-of-lying/100586680 Ben Herscovitch, “Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter): https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/ Adam Tooze, “Chartbook” (newsletter): https://adamtooze.substack.com/ Heather Cox Richardson, “Letters from an American” (newsletter): https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/ Bill Bishop, “Sinocism” (newsletter): https://sinocism.com/ Andrew Daily “The Weekly Dish” (newsletter): https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/ Americ

In the second half of their conversation arising out of the US National Intelligence Council publication “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, Allan and Darren, along with guests Heather Smith and Katherine Mansted, turn to remaining sections. Section 2 of the report concerns “emerging dynamics”, and asks how the structural forces outlined in the first section (and discussed in Part 1)—demographics, economics, technology and the environment—interact with other factors at three levels of analysis. Katherine speaks to the level of individuals and society, Heather to the level of the state, and Allan to the level of the international system. The major theme of this section is greater debate and contestation, and the consequences for the cohesiveness of societies and the resilience of states. The report’s authors see growing pessimism around the world regarding the future, and greater distrust of leaders and institutions. They foresee a growing imbalance between public demands and governments’ ability to deliver on those demands. Section 3 concludes the report by looking at possible scenarios for the world in 2040. The report’s authors stress these are not intended to be predictions, but to present a broad spectrum of possibilities that explore how various combinations of structural forces and emerging dynamics, along with other uncertainties, could play out. Each discussant offers their take on which of the five scenarios described is most resonant: (i) Renaissance of Democracies; (ii) A World Adrift; (iii) Competitive Coexistence; (iv) Separate Silos; and (v) Tragedy and Mobilisation. As Katherine astutely observes in her concluding thoughts, it is right and proper to maintain a clear distinction between intelligence and policy. Nevertheless, a publication such as this will leave many wanting more—more actionable and more persuasive policy insights. Navigating a way through the dark clouds on the horizon is not however the role of the intelligence community... but someone will have to do it. Heather Smith is a Professor at the ANU’s National Security College, following a distinguished career in the Australian public service including serving as Deputy Director-General of ONA, Deputy Secretary of DFAT, and Secretary of the Departments of Communications and of Industry, Innovation and Science. Katherine Mansted is a Senior Fellow in the Practice of National Security at the ANU’s National Security College, and also the Director of Cyber Intelligence at CyberCX. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, a publication of the National Intelligence Council, March 2021: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home

In a double episode recorded on Thursday 14 October, Allan and Darren welcome the ANU National Security College's Heather Smith and Katherine Mansted to talk about the future. The basis of their discussion is the publication “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, which was released by the US National Intelligence Council in March. This is the 7th edition of Global Trends, which has been published every four years since 1997. As explained in the document’s Foreword: “Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each  administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures”. Part 1 begins with Allan and Heather describing the context for Global Trends and why it is a worthwhile exercise, while Katherine and Darren offer initial thoughts from the perspective of those outside of government on what the publication represents and how they would go about doing a equivalent futures exercise themselves. The report has three sections--“Structural Forces”, “Emerging Dynamics” and “Future Scenarios”--which are used to organise the rest of the conversation. The remainder of Part 1 covers four “Structural Forces”: demographics and human development, environment, economics and technology. These were identified by the authors on the basis that they will be foundational in shaping future dynamics and are relatively universal in scope, while also having sufficient data available now to make projections with some confidence. Heather tackles demographics and economics, Katherine addresses technology and Darren offers some thoughts on the environment. In Part 2 to come, the conversation will turn to the second and third sections of the report: “emerging dynamics” and “future scenarios”. Heather Smith is a Professor at the ANU’s National Security College, following a distinguished career in the Australian public service including serving as Deputy Director-General of ONA, Deputy Secretary of DFAT, and Secretary of the Departments of Communications and of Industry, Innovation and Science. Katherine Mansted is a Senior Fellow in the Practice of National Security at the ANU’s National Security College, and also the Director of Cyber Intelligence at CyberCX. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, a publication of the National Intelligence Council, March 2021: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home

This week Allan and Darren begin by resuming their discussion of AUKUS. With the decision now a few weeks old, have their minds changed? How are they seeing the debate evolving? What have been some of the more interesting contributions? For Darren, interventions by former Prime Ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating are particularly notable, and Allan has plenty to say on both. Second, the two turn to the first in-person leaders meeting of the Quad. What is its significance? What should one make of the (over 2000 word) communique? Are things headed in a positive direction? Third, an area where both agree US leadership has been lacking is in trade, which makes China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) all the more interesting. Is this a serious application? How should Canberra approach it, given the ongoing campaign of economic coercion? Meanwhile, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai gave a speech on US-China relations this week—does that offer clues as to the Biden administration’s plans for China, or economic leadership generally in the region? Finally, with Beijing upping its aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), both Allan and Darren offer some preliminary comments on what will certainly remain an issue in the months and years ahead. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.      Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic (@stephendziedzic ; Twitter) on FM Payne’s response to criticism on AUKUS, 1 October 2021: https://twitter.com/stephendziedzic/status/1443864244152274948 Deep State Radio (Podcast), “Biden’s multi-tiered China policy is a far cry from Trump’s”, 4 October 2021: https://thedsrnetwork.com/bidens-multi-tiered-china-policy-is-a-far-cry-from-trumps/ Zachary Basu and Jonathan Swan, “Inside Biden's full-court press with France”, Axios, 6 October 2021: https://www.axios.com/biden-make-amends-france-macron-8db93b4c-39a3-458b-8216-02dfd0a8f03f.html Malcolm Turnbull, Address to the National Press Club, 29 September 2021: https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/address-to-the-national-press-club-september-2021 Paul Keating, “A relic of a bygone age? I might be, but I’m not a defeatist”, Sydney Morning Herald, 29 September 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/a-relic-of-a-bygone-age-i-might-be-but-i-m-not-a-defeatist-20210928-p58vdu.html Peter Khalil, “Why my hero Keating is wrong on China and our national security”, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 September 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-my-hero-keating-is-wrong-on-china-and-our-national-security-20210922-p58twd.html Paul Keating, “China’s responsibilities”, Speech to the 21st Century Council, Beijing, 3 November 2013: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/paul-keating-chinas-responsibilities Quad Leaders' Summit Communique, 24 September 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/quad-leaders-summit-communique Fact Sheet: Quad Leaders’ Summit, The White House, 24 September 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/fact-sheet-quad-leaders-summit/ “Australia to oppose China’s bid to join trade pact until it halts strikes against exports”, The Guardian, 18 September 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/18/australia-to-oppose-chinas-bid-to-join-trade-pact-until-it-halts-strikes-against-exports “A Conversation with Ambassador Katherine Tai, U.S. Trade Representative”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 October 2021: https://www.csis.org/analysis/conversation-ambassador-katherine-tai-us-trade-representative “9/11 Inside the President’s War Room” (TV Show): https://www.apple.com/au/tv-pr/originals/911-inside-the-presidents-war-room/ Amia Srinivasan, “Does anyone have the right to sex?”, London Review of Books, 22 March 2018: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v40/n06/amia-srinivasan/does-anyone-have-the-right-t

The announcement of a new trilateral security partnership, AUKUS (Australia, UK and US), is a major event in the history of Australian foreign policy. Australia is planning to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, scrapping a contract with the French to build conventional subs in the process. AUKUS also plans to engage in new forms of security cooperation in other technology domains. This decision is both momentous and controversial. In this episode, Allan and Darren debate the merits of AUKUS, with Darren attempting to lay out a (theoretical) case in favour, while Allan offers his critique. The conversation is the strongest disagreement they’ve had in the history of the podcast, which makes for a lively debate! Hopefully the first of many in the months ahead as further details emerge and implementation begins. The logic and consequences of AUKUS speak to the biggest questions of Australian foreign policy, and this discussion helps reveal clear points of disagreement in how Allan and Darren assess Australia’s strategic landscape. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.      Relevant links Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS, 16 September 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-leaders-statement-aukus Allan Gyngell, “Australia signs up to the Anglosphere”, Australian Financial Review, 17 September 2021: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-signs-up-to-the-anglosphere-20210916-p58s3x Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim, “Successful deterrence: Why AUKUS is good news for Taiwan”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 19 September 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/successful-deterrence-why-aukus-is-good-news-for-taiwan-20210918-p58su7.html William Gale and Darrell West, “Is the US headed for another Civil War?”, Brookings Institution, 16 September 2021: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/09/16/is-the-us-headed-for-another-civil-war/ Hugh White, How to defend Australia (La Trobe University Press, 2019): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/how-defend-australia Oriana Skylar Mastro, “The Taiwan Temptation: Why Beijing Might Resort to Force”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation Rory Medcalf, “Australia crosses a strategic Rubicon”, Australian Financial Review, 16 September 2021: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-crosses-a-strategic-rubicon-20210916-p58s2y Editorial Board, “What to make of China’s drive towards ‘common prosperity’”, East Asia Forum, 20 September 2021: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/09/20/what-to-make-of-chinas-drive-towards-common-prosperity/ Kevin Rudd, “Xi Jinping’s pivot to the state”, Address to the Asia Society, New York, 8 September 2021: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/xi-jinpings-pivot-state Sinica Podcast, “What’s the deal with the Red New Deal?”, 16 September 2021: https://supchina.com/podcast/whats-the-deal-with-the-red-new-deal/ The Ezra Klein Show, Interview with Annie Murphy Paul, New York Times, 20 July 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-annie-murphy-paul.html The Ezra Klein Show, Interview with L.M. Sacasas, New York Times, 3 August 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-lm-sacasas.html

Allan and Darren begin this episode reviewing the frenzied two-week evacuation from Afghanistan. A logistical success or further evidence of a terrible failure? Do the events of the evacuation, which included an ISIS-K suicide bombing and a drone strike that killed civilians, in addition to the over 100,000 evacuated, change their assessment of the merits of withdrawal? What are Australia’s obligations into the future? What will China’s role be? The Australia-US alliance celebrates its 70th anniversary this week. Having recently updated his book on the history Australian foreign policy, Fear of Abandonment, how is Allan thinking about the role the alliance should be playing in Australian foreign policy today? Darren tries to inject some needed (in his view) international relations theory into public debates on the merits of the alliance. Moreover, Darren (along with co-authors Zack Cooper and Ashley Feng) has published a new report for the United States Studies Centre on the topic of geoeconomics and the alliance, and he explains its motivation and previews the argument. Allan wonders whether we need to hear more from the economics discipline in geoeconomic policy discussions, given that the stakes extend well beyond Australia’s current focus—China’s economic coercion. Darren notes that recent speeches from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Defence Minister Peter Dutton highlight how economics and security are more deeply intertwined than ever. Given a spate of recent bilateral meetings and a big international trip now underway for the Foreign and Defence Ministers, Allan and Darren discuss Australia’s diplomatic objectives for the rest of the year. Finally, on the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, they each reflect on their personal memories of the event and what its enduring significance is for Australia in the world. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Ezra Klein, “Let’s Not Pretend That the Way We Withdrew From Afghanistan Was the Problem”, New York Times, 26 August 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/opinion/afghanistan-us-withdrawal.html “Joint Statement on Afghanistan Evacuation Travel Assurances”, 30 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/joint-statement-afghanistan-evacuation-travel-assurances Marise Payne, “Transcript Statement to the Senate: Afghanistan”, 23 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/transcript/transcript-statement-senate-afghanistan Simon Jackman, “At 70, most see US alliance as foundation of our security”, United States Studies Centre, 30 August 2021: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/at-70-most-see-us-alliance-as-foundation-of-our-security UPCOMING EVENT, “Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World - an update”, Australian Institute of International Affairs, 23 September 2021: https://aiia.tidyhq.com/public/schedule/events/37184-fear-of-abandonment-australia-in-the-world-an-update Darren Lim, Zack Cooper and Ashley Feng, “Trust and diversify: A geoeconomic strategy for the Australia-US alliance”, United States Studies Centre, 2 September 2021: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/trust-and-diversify-a-geoeconomic-strategy-for-the-australia-us-alliance Josh Frydenberg, “Building Resilience and the Return of Strategic Competition”, Keynote Address to the ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, 6 September 2021: https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/building-resilience-and-the-return-of-strategic-competition/ Peter Dutton, “Address to the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia”, 8 September 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/address-american-chamber-commerce-australia Marise Payne and Peter Dutton, “Joint visit to Indonesia, India, the Republic of Korea, and the United States”, Joint Media Release, 8 September 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/media-releases/joint-visit-indonesi

This second half of the discussion begins with Australia-Indonesia relations. How does Indonesia see Australia? How much do the views expressed by President Widodo in a speech to the Australian Parliament reflect broader opinions among Indonesia’s elite? Darren chimes in with a ‘cheeky’ question about the Australian public’s attitudes towards Indonesia—would it be preferable for the bilateral relationship to be as high profile in the media and public consciousness as that with China or the United States?  And how can Australia increase its engagement with Indonesia? Is a “step up”—our approach in the South Pacific—the correct frame? The conversation turns outward. Allan asks Gary what he has concluded about ASEAN’s capability “to carry the weight the rest of the world is putting on it”. And specifically, has the regional organisation’s performance during the recent and ongoing Myanmar crisis surprised him? Allan then highlights a recent monograph published by the AIIA and authored by Michael Bliss, and for which Gary wrote the Afterword, about Australia’s most recent term of the UN Security Council and our legacy. What is Gary’s advice to the Australian government about how we can best contribute to the continuation of an effective multilateral system? Finally, Darren ends by asking Gary to reflect upon his entire career by asking whether there are any distinctively Australian characteristics that cause success or failure in Australian foreign policy. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Joko Widodo, “Address by the President of the Republic of Indonesia”, Parliament of Australia, 10 February 2020: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/be8a2537-4a84-4dc2-b27b-28f392b06329/&sid=0000 Michael Bliss (Afterword by Gary Quinlan), An Enduring Contribution? Australia's Term on the United Nations Security Council (2013-2014), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Diplomatic History Series | 2, Canberra, 2021: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/publication/an-enduring-contribution-australias-term-on-the-united-nations-security-council-2013-2014/

In a conversation recorded on Thursday 5 August, Allan and Darren welcome Gary Quinlan to the podcast. Gary’s career in Australian foreign policy can only be described as stellar, having worked at the top of each of its three pillars: the region, the alliance, and the rules-based order. Gary joined DFAT in 1973 and, until his recent retirement, held one of Australia’s most senior diplomatic appointments as Ambassador to Indonesia from 2018 until April 2021. From 2009, as our permanent representative to the UN, Gary presided over Australia’s successful campaign for election to the UN Security Council and our term in office, twice taking his place as president of the Council. He served as Prime Minister Rudd’s senior adviser on foreign affairs, defence and national security. His first head of mission posting was as High Commissioner in Singapore in 2001. Allan begins the conversation by observing that, for pandemic-related reasons, Gary spent months of his time as Ambassador to Indonesia living in Canberra. How did that work? Did it work? Will diplomacy as a profession change as a result of the world's experience with COVID-19? The conversation turns to Indonesia. How do Indonesians think about the world and Indonesia’s place in it? Is this question contested or is there a strong consensus? How polarised is Indonesian politics and how are cleavages managed? What can be learned from the fascinating career trajectories of two controversial figures, the former Governor of Jakarta Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (known as Ahok), and Prabowo Subianto, the current Defense Minister? To what extent does Islam, and the politics of Islam, shape Indonesian foreign policy? Part 1 concludes with a discussion of Indonesia’s views of, and relations with, the two major powers. What are the politics of China inside the country, and what is the trend-line of Indonesia-China relations? How would the Indonesians rate the Biden administration's performance so far, and what do they want from the US? In Part 2, the conversation will cover Australia-Indonesia relations as well as ASEAN and the future of multilateralism. We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Gary Quinlan AO, short biography: https://australiaindonesiacentre.org/network/his-excellency-gary-quinlan-ao/

On Sunday the 15th August the Taliban took control of Kabul, capping an astonishingly rapid takeover of Afghanistan. In this emergency episode, Allan and Darren try to make sense of these events, analytically but also on a more personal level. How could this have happened? Was it true that the United States faced a simple choice between getting out or staying forever? What are the implications for Joe Biden’s legacy, and America’s standing in the world? And what is the Australian angle here? Many thanks to Dominique Yap for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Paul Miller, “What really went wrong in Afghanistan”, The Dispatch, 29 January 2020: https://thedispatch.com/p/what-really-went-wrong-in-afghanistan   Craig Whitlock, “At war with the truth” (Afghanistan Papers”), Washington Post, 9 December 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/  Remarks by President Biden on the Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, The White House, 8 July 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan/ Gideon Rachman, “Joe Biden’s credibility has been shredded in Afghanistan”, Financial Times, 13 August 2021: https://amp.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2 Daniel Drezner, “Afghanistan’s effect on American foreign policy”, Washington Post, 15 August 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/15/afghanistans-effect-american-foreign-policy/ ABC News Sunday (NSW), 15 August 2021: https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2132H033S00 Scott Morrison, “Interview with Lisa Millar, ABC News Breakfast”, Transcript, 16 August 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/interview-lisa-millar-abc-news-breakfast Marise Payne, “ABC Radio National – AM with Sabra Lane”, Transcript, 17 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/transcript/abc-radio-national-am-sabra-lane List of Afghan charities: https://afghanistanrelief.carrd.co/ (see also this tweet thread from Elsa Kania (@EBKania) https://twitter.com/EBKania/status/1426677508431355912 )

After some time away from the news, Allan and Darren have a lot to catch up on. This episode begins with PM Scott Morrison’s visit to New Zealand to meet his counterpart Jacinda Ardern. Allan provides his readout of the meeting, in which the leaders sought to affirm their shared interests and seemingly quash commentary that there are growing divisions in the relationship. Second on the list is an emerging constitutional crisis in Samoa, where a very close election result ended up in the courts, with the defeated incumbent not accepting the results. Is there anything Canberra can do? Third, the Australian government has announced the closure of its embassy in Kabul due to security concerns, perhaps no surprise given the ongoing troop withdrawals as the West tries to exit a 20-year war. But will the closure have a meaningful impact on Australian foreign policy? Fourth, Darren offers his thoughts on the remarkable story in Belarus, where the government successfully forced a commercial airline flying between two European capitals to land so that it could arrest a dissident on board. Finally, Darren cannot resist but bring up the “lab leak hypothesis”, which is the possibility that COVID-19 leaked (accidentally) out of a lab in Wuhan, rather than jumping to humans from animals. Darren tries to set out why this hypothesis has transformed from fringe conspiracy theory to mainstream debate, one which the Biden Administration has publicly instructed its intelligence agencies to report on in the weeks ahead. How credible is the theory? Does it matter whether it’s correct? This is a deep rabbit hole and if listeners want follow Darren down it, some introductory links are in the show notes below. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Joint statement: Prime Ministers Jacinda Ardern and Scott Morrison, 31 May 2021: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/joint-statement-prime-ministers-jacinda-ardern-and-scott-morrison PM Ardern and PM Morrison, Press Conference Transcript, Queenstown NZ, 31 May 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-queenstown-new-zealand Marise Payne, Tweet on Samoa election, 24 May 2021: https://twitter.com/marisepayne/status/1396596376973185031?s=21 ABC News (Interview), “Samoa faces crisis after new PM sworn in outside parliament in a tent”, 25 May 2021: https://youtu.be/o3eyOOtheUM Marise Payne, “Statement on visit to Afghanistan”, 10 May 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-visit-afghanistan   Scott Morrison and Marise Payne, “Statement on the Australian Embassy in Afghanistan”, 25 May 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-australian-embassy-afghanistan Nicolas Wade, “Origin of COVID — Following the clues”, Medium, 3 May 2021: https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038 Donald McNeil Jr, “How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Lab-Leak Theory*, Medium, 17 May 2021: https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-lab-leak-theory-f4f88446b04d Katherine Eban, “The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins”, Vanity Fair, 3 June 2021: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins Daniel Engber, “If the lab leak theory is right, what’s next?”, The Atlantic, 27 May 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/chinese-lab-leak-hypothesis-coronavirus/619000/ Tyler Cowen, “Why the lab leak theory matters” [with link to Ross Douthat Column], Marginal Revolution, 30 May 2021: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/05/why-the-lab-leak-theory-matters.html Davi

With President Joe Biden announcing the forthcoming withdrawal of ground troops from Afghanistan, the West’s 20 year war in Afghanistan is drawing to a close. Allan and Darren open this week’s podcast with a discussion of whether this is the right decision, and what lessons we should take from this decades-long conflict. The episode then turns to a busy week in bilateral relations with China for both New Zealand and Australia. Kiwi Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta gave her first major speech on China, and followed it with some controversial comments (in Australia, at least) about the expansion of the remit of the Five Eyes intelligence grouping. Meanwhile, the Australian government used purpose-built legislation to cancel two memoranda of understanding between the Victorian state government and the Chinese government on the Belt and Road Initiative – to Beijing’s predictable displeasure. Does this past week reveal a split in the two countries’ approach to China? What is the logic of each approach? Finally, Japan’s Prime Minister Suga met with Joe Biden at the White House, with China front and centre of the discussion—what are the major takeaways? We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for research and audio editing, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links “Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan”, 14 April 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/ Scott Morrison, Press Conference, Stirling Community Centre, WA, 15 April 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-stirling-community-centre-wa Nanaia Mahuta, “He Taniwha He Tipua, He Tipua He Taniwha - The Dragon and the Taniwha”, Speech to the NZ China Council, 19 April 2021: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/%E2%80%9Che-taniwha-he-tipua-he-tipua-he-taniwha-dragon-and-taniwha%E2%80%9D Jane Patterson, “New Zealand, Australia foreign ministers discuss China, Five Eyes, 501 deportees”, Radio NZ, 23 April 2021: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/441073/new-zealand-australia-foreign-ministers-discuss-china-five-eyes-501-deportees (Youtube Video) “'Beautiful to see': New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on the travel bubble | ABC News” [Ardern’s comments on Five Eyes], 20 April 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2c1S2pIDKH8 Andrew Tillett, “Dumped foreign deals were never used”, Australian Financial Review, 22 April 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dumped-foreign-deals-were-never-used-20210422-p57lhm U.S.- Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. – JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”, 16 April 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/16/u-s-japan-joint-leaders-statement-u-s-japan-global-partnership-for-a-new-era/ (Youtube video) “How New is the New Era? 2021 Annual Reischauer Lecture with Rana Mitter, Part 1”, 7 April 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3bi9N2NY6E Adam Tooze, “The gatekeeper”, London Review of Books, 22 April 2021: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n08/adam-tooze/the-gatekeeper Ezra Klein, “Four ways of looking at the radicalism of Joe Biden”, 8 April 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/opinion/biden-jobs-infrastructure-economy.html C. Lee Shea, “The longest telegram: A visionary blueprint for the comprehensive grand strategy against China we need”, War on the Rocks, 1 April 2021: https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/the-longest-telegram-a-visionary-blueprint-for-the-comprehensive-grand-strategy-against-china-we-need/

The primary focus of this week’s episode is the terrible situation in Myanmar as the Tatmadaw, the country’s military, cements its coup with increasing levels of violence. Allan’s first posting was to the country and so he leads off with a personal reflection of great sorrow. Turning to analysis, what was the cause of the conflict and to what extent did the country’s civilian government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, play a role? Is the military sufficiently powerful that it will inevitably be a major player in Myanmar’s political future, analogous to the Taliban in Afghanistan or the Assad regime in Syria? Does Myanmar need a Nehru-like figure? Turning to the international dimension, what are the policy challenges facing Washington, Beijing and New Delhi? Is this an opportunity for China to display regional security leadership, and what is the place of sovereignty in this discussion? Is this an existential crisis for ASEAN? Darren is intrigued by elite debates on the issue within Singapore, which leads to a wider discussion of ASEAN’s balancing act between maintaining unity and upholding the principle of non-interference, versus newer interests in shaping the emerging regional order. Turning to Australia—what are our interests and can we somehow play a positive force? Allan raises a curious question regarding whether the Australian government’s policy is to recognise only states, or whether it can recognise specific governments, as it did with Venezuela in 2019. The discussion then moves to Papua New Guinea and its devastating Covid-19 outbreak. Darren describes some of the factors that distinguish this particular humanitarian crisis, and asks Allan what the balance is for Australia between moral imperative and strategic interest. Darren wonders whether pandemic disinformation on social media might be a spark to begin a discussion of broader social responsibility for companies like Facebook. Finally, Peter Dutton is the new Defence Minister. Darren asks Allan to reflect on the unique challenges of the portfolio, and why so many of Dutton’s predecessors seem to have had limited success.   We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for research and audio editing, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links List of insurgent groups in Myanmar, Wikipedia (Accessed 14 April 2021): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_insurgent_groups_in_Myanmar Bilahari Kausikan, “ASEAN's alibi diplomacy must be allowed to take effect in Myanmar”, Nikkei Asia, 3 April 2021: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/ASEAN-s-alibi-diplomacy-must-be-allowed-to-take-effect-in-Myanmar Tweet from James Crabtree (@jamescrabtree) on Tommy Koh’s facebook post, 7 April 2021: https://twitter.com/jamescrabtree/status/1379671051144097798 Gareth Evans, “The Responsibility to Protect the People of Myanmar”, Australian Outlook, 8 April 2021: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/the-responsibility-to-protect-the-people-of-myanmar/ Donald Rothwell, “The barely-noticed momentous change to Australian foreign policy”, Lowy Interpreter, 14 February 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/barely-noticed-momentous-change-australian-foreign-policy Health Minister Hon. Jelta Wong on the Covid crisis in Papua New Guinea | Aus-PNG Network Event, Lowy Institute, 1 April 2021: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/news-and-media/multimedia/video/health-minister-hon-jelta-wong-covid-crisis-papua-new-guinea-aus-png Tweet by Andrew Davies (@defence_wonk) on Peter Duton to Defenec, 24 March 2021: https://twitter.com/defence_wonk/status/1374688464386453507  Peter Dutton, “Joint training Exercise in the Indian Ocean”, Media release, 5 April 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/media-releases/joint-training-exercise-indian-ocean The Bureau (TV Series), SBS On Demand: https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/program/the-bureau Darren Lim, “Geoeconomics and National Security”, ANU Course: https://programsandcourses.anu

This week's episode begins with the advice New Zealand’s Trade Minister Damien O’Connor attempted to offer Australia on how to manage bilateral relations with China. Was it helpful, and regardless does Australia have something to learn from the way New Zealand conducts its diplomacy and foreign policy? And what explains the starkly different trajectories of the bilateral relationships Canberra and Wellington have with Beijing? The military has taken power in Myanmar—again—and Allan offers a sorrowful perspective on the state of the country to which he was first posted as a young diplomat. Meanwhile, Darren wonders what the Biden administration will do, and wonders whether there is merit in the US looking to support some key Southeast Asian governments in their response, rather than necessarily attempting to lead at a time when their own democratic credentials are diminished. Is "ASEAN solidarity" still in the interests of all of its member states?  Regular podcast listeners will know how much stock Allan and Darren place on speeches, and this week they focus on the speech given by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the World Economic Forum. How is reading and analysing a speech from a Chinese leader different to that of an Australian PM or US president? What were the notable takeaways from this speech, and who was its primary audience? Finally, Australia has a brand new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Malaysia. Perhaps an example of “fresh thinking” in Australian foreign policy? We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Weizhen Tan, “Nationalism ‘is not the way forward’: New Zealand minister calls for more trade relationships” CNBC, 27 January 2021: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/new-zealand-trade-minister-on-trade-deal-with-china-china-australia-tensions.html “New Zealand’s Foreign Minister speaks on how New Zealand tackled the pandemic”, ABC 7:30 report, 28 January 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/pause-in-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-extended/13100700 Marise Payne, “Statement on Myanmar”, 1 February 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-myanmar Economist Intelligence Unit, “Democracy Index 2020: In sickness and in health?”: https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020/ Xi Jinping, “Let the Torch of Multilateralism Light up Humanity's Way Forward”, Speech to the World Economic Forum, 26 January 2021: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-25/Full-text-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-at-the-virtual-Davos-Agenda-event-Xln4hwjO2Q/index.html Cobus van Staden, “What did Xi Jinping Really Say at Davos?”, China Africa Project, 26 January 2021: https://mailchi.mp/0f0b40daa599/what-did-xi-jinping-really-say-at-davos?e=832ad9dc70 “Joint Statement on a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Australia and Malaysia”, 27 January 2021: https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/malaysia/joint-statement-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-between-australia-and-malaysia John Blaxland, “Behind the Australia-Thailand strategic partnership”, East Asia Forum, 27 January 2021: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/01/27/behind-the-australia-thailand-strategic-partnership/ Sinica podcast, “A new U.S. strategy in East Asia, from the Quincy Institute”, 21 January 2021: https://supchina.com/podcast/a-new-u-s-strategy-in-east-asia-from-the-quincy-institute/ Robert Atkinson and Michael Lind, “National Developmentalism: From Forgotten Tradition to New Consensus”, American Affairs Volume III, Number 2 (Summer 2019): https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2019/05/national-developmentalism-from-forgotten-tradition-to-new-consensus/

Recorded the day after Joe Biden’s inauguration as President, Allan and Darren begin the episode by returning to the storming of the U.S. Capitol on 6 January, reflecting on whether their initial assessments need to be updated based on what we now know about the day, and the events since. Next, they discuss a 2018 document outlining the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy that was declassified (more than 20 years ahead of schedule) by the White House as it was leaving office. Third, Allan returns to his fascination with Australia’s cooperation with its Five Eyes partners, this time in the wake of a curious Department of Home Affairs media release discussing a “Five Country” grouping. Finally, Darren admits to being triggered by a recent piece in the Australian Financial Review calling for “fresh thinking” in Australian foreign policy—is the situation that dire and is this the answer? And can a “wise old owl” like Allan provide it? The result is an interesting discussion about the barriers to entry into contributing to Australian foreign policy. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Scott Morrison, Interview with Jim Wilson 2GB, 18 January 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/interview-jim-wilson-2gb-180121 Luke Mogelson, “Among the insurrectionists”, The New Yorker, 15 January 2021: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/25/among-the-insurrectionists Gillian Tett, “America’s political crisis runs deeper than ideology”, Financial Times, 13 January 2021: https://www.ft.com/content/d8c59645-0f30-4647-a577-8ef3cc37ceee Derek Thompson, “Biden should go big, fast and simple”, The Atlantic, 20 January 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/biden-go-big/617737/ Amanda Gorman reads “The hill we climb”, 20 January 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz4YuEvJ3y4 “US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific”, Document declassified on 5 January 2021, available at: https://news.usni.org/2021/01/15/u-s-strategic-framework-for-the-indo-pacific Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian and Zach Dorfman, “Newly declassified report lays out U.S. strategy in Asia”, Axios, 12 January 2021: https://www.axios.com/indo-pacific-strategy-trump-administration-china-377b965c-6cf8-4299-a230-c0e869bb4d73.html Peter Dutton, “Five Country Statement to EU to prevent child abuse online”, Media release, 15 January 2021: https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/peterdutton/Pages/five-country-statement-EU-prevent-child-abuse-online.aspx UK Home Office, “Five Country Ministerial starts in London” Press release, 5 February 2015: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/five-country-ministerial-starts-in-london Andrew Clark, “Time for new foreign policy thinking in the Canberra citadel”, Australian Financial Review, 15 January 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/time-for-new-foreign-policy-thinking-in-the-canberra-citadel-20210115-p56ucu Vitalik Buterin, “Endnotes on 2020: Crypto and beyond”, 28 December 2021: https://vitalik.ca/general/2020/12/28/endnotes.html Malcolm Turnbull, A bigger picture, Hardie Grant: https://www.hardiegrant.com/au/publishing/bookfinder/book/a-bigger-picture-by-malcolm-turnbull/9781743795637 Christopher Pyne, The insider: the scoops, the scandals and the serious business within the Canberra bubble, Hachette Australia, https://www.hachette.com.au/christopher-pyne/the-insider-the-scoops-the-scandals-and-the-serious-business-within-the-canberra-bubble Arnold Schwarznegger, Message following this week’s attack on the Capitol, 10 January 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_P-0I6sAck

Following the shocking events on Wednesday 6 January when a mob of Trump supporters (incited by the president) stormed the U.S. Capitol Building, Allan and Darren offer their reactions in this episode recorded in the afternoon of Friday 8th. Above all, does this drama change how they see the short- and medium-term trajectory of the United States? For Allan the events reinforce rather than change views he’s formed over the past four years, while Darren tries, perhaps foolishly, to offer an optimistic assessment. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Bruno Maçães, History has begun: The birth of a new America (Hurst Publishers): https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/history-has-begun/ All in: The fight for Democracy (Amazon Prime): https://www.amazon.com/All-Fight-Democracy-Stacey-Abrams/dp/B08FRQQKD5 Matthew Continetti, “Trump must pay”, National Review, 6 January 2021: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/trump-must-pay/ Yuval Levin, “Trump’s rebellion against reality”, The Dispatch, 7 January 2021” https://thedispatch.com/p/trumps-rebellion-against-reality Bruno Maçães, “The roleplaying coup”, City Journal, 7 January 2021: https://www.city-journal.org/the-role-playing-coup

Allan and Darren begin their final episode of 2020 with the recent cabinet reshuffle, specifically Dan Tehan becoming Minister for Trade and Andrew Hastie becoming Assistant Minister for Defence. Tehan replaces Simon Birmingham, the new Finance Minister, and Allan explains what he most admires about ‘Birmo’, giving Tehan—himself a former diplomat—big shoes to fill. On the Defence side, we now have a Defence Minister, and an Assistant Defence Minister, who have both served in the Australian Defence Force—something unusual and notable. The discussion moves to the appointment of Will Hodgman, a former Premier of Tasmania, to be Australia’s next High Commissioner to Singapore. Allan wonders what specialised skills (if any) the government believes head of mission posts require, while Darren offers a very personal reflection on the wide range of abilities required to be an Ambassador, especially in a crisis situation. Next the conversation turns to the Richardson Review, chaired by friend of the podcast Dennis Richardson and which, at over 1300 pages in length, is a deep and comprehensive inquiry into the legislation governing Australia’s intelligence community. Allan explains why the report is so significant and lists some highlights. Liberal democracies across the world are grappling with the perennial question of “freedom versus security”, and the powers (and oversight) of intelligence agencies are central to these debates. Getting the balance right is important not just in and of itself, but for demonstrating that the liberal democratic model can manage uniquely 21st century challenges. Finally, Allan and Darren preview their “summer homework”. What is each looking to learn more about over the summer, and why? For Allan, the answer revolves around the degree of agency Australia has in the emerging international order, and for Darren the answer is—as always it seems—to understand more about China itself, and Beijing’s intentions. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Scott Morrison, Media Statement [Cabinet reshuffle], 18 December 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/ministry-0   Marise Payne, Media release “High Commissioner to Singapore”, 29 November 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/high-commissioner-singapore Daniel Flitton, “More pollies in more posts”, Lowy Interpreter, 3 December 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/more-pollies-more-posts Report of the Comprehensive Review of the Legal Framework of the National Intelligence Community, 4 December 2020: https://www.ag.gov.au/national-security/publications/report-comprehensive-review-legal-framework-national-intelligence-community Sun Yun, “‘Politics come first’ as ban on Australian coal worsens China’s power cuts”, Financial Times, 21 December 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/e83fffeb-3ef2-4b67-8989-6d17f153d8d4 Pekingology podcast: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/pekingology The Aubrey-Martin series (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey%E2%80%93Maturin_series The Mandalorian, Disney Plus: https://disneyplusoriginals.disney.com/show/the-mandalorian Brune Macaes, “Dune and the infinite game”, 17 December 2020: https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/dune-and-the-infinite-game The Realignment podcast: https://the-realignment.simplecast.com/

Recorded on Thursday 5th November in the afternoon (Canberra time), as Joe Biden appeared on track for victory in the 2020 US presidential election but had not yet crossed the 270 electoral college vote threshold, Allan and Darren offer their immediate reactions, emotionally and analytically.  We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Sam Harris, Making Sense Podcast, Episode 224, "The key to Trump's appeal", 2 November 2020: https://samharris.org/podcasts/224-key-trumps-appeal/  Daniel Drezner, "Donald Trump and the haunting of political science", Washington Post, 3 November 2020: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/03/donald-trump-haunting-political-science/

This week’s episode begins with a focus on recent events in Australia’s defence policy space, which both Allan and Darren see as trending towards the formation of a balancing coalition in the region. Australia will join the US, Japan and India in next month’s Malabar exercises, which was announced while Defence Minister Linda Reynolds was in Tokyo to meet with her counterpart. Meanwhile, Australia will no longer send a naval ship to the Middle East – signalling the conclusion of a decades-long focus on that region. The conversation then turns to a controversial hearing in the Senate, during which Senator Eric Abetz asked three witnesses, all Australians of Chinese heritage, to denounce the Chinese Communist Party unconditionally. Both Allan and Darren explain why they were deeply troubled by this line of questioning, and Darren describes his recent co-authored piece that argues Abetz’s actions actually harmed Australia’s national security. The episode also raises interesting and thorny questions regarding whether and how every Australian should intervene in public debates. Finally, given that Ministerial visits, like those to Japan recently made by the Foreign and Defence Ministers, currently come at the cost of 14-days quarantine upon returning home, what does this say about the future of diplomacy? We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Senator Linda Reynolds and Senator Marise Payne, “Australia to participate in Exercise Malabar 2020”, Media Release: 19 October 2020: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/lreynolds/media-releases/australia-participate-exercise-malabar-2020 “2020 Japan-Australia Defense Ministers Kishi/Reynolds Joint Statement on Advancing Defence Cooperation”, 19 October 2020: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/lreynolds/statements/2020-japan-australia-defense-ministers-kishireynolds-joint-statement Senator Linda Reynolds, “Changes to the ADF's naval presence in the Middle East”, Media Release, 23 October 2020: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/lreynolds/media-releases/changes-adfs-naval-presence-middle-east Stephen Dziedzic and Andrew Greene, “Australia no longer sending Navy to the Middle East, shifts focus to Asia-Pacific, China”, ABC News, 23 October 2020: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-23/australia-will-stop-sending-navy-to-middle-east-to-shift-focus/12808118 Osmond Chiu, “I was born in Australia. Why do I need to renounce the Chinese Communist Party?”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 October 2020: https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-was-born-in-australia-why-do-i-need-to-renounce-the-chinese-communist-party-20201014-p5655j.html Yun Jiang, “Senator Abetz’s loyalty test”, Inside Story, 20 October 2020: https://insidestory.org.au/senator-abetzs-loyalty-test/ Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim, “Loyalty tests make Australia weaker, not stronger” Lowy Interpreter, 21 October 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/loyalty-tests-make-australia-weaker-not-stronger Australian Institute of International Affairs, “The World in 2021: Allan Gyngell and Dennis Richardson in Conversation”, 22 October 2020: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australian-outlook/?filter[]=video (forthcoming) Graeme Dobell, “What’s worth 14 days’ quarantine for Australia’s foreign minister?” The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 19 October 2020: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/whats-worth-14-days-quarantine-for-australias-foreign-minister/ Australian Institute of International Affairs, contact details: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/contact-us/ Anne Applebaum, Twilight of Democracy: The Failure of Politics and the Parting of Friends (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/55772332-twilight-of-democracy Francis Fukuyama, “Liberalism and its discontents: The challenges from the left and the right”, American Purpose, 5 October 2020: https:/

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has a new Secretary, Kathryn Campbell. Darren uses the occasion to build a theoretical model of the position, positing that the ideal candidate would fulfil four roles: administrator, consigliere, strategist and diplomat. Allan points out that the “diplomat” skill-set is unique to DFAT, discussing the history of the position not just in Australia but internationally, and some of the novel challenges every DFAT secretary will face. The two next turn their attention to a pair of recent cyber stories: the attribution to China by a broad coalition of western governments of the massive and indiscriminate hack of Microsoft’s Exchange server earlier this year, and investigative reporting that surveillance software sold by the Israeli company NSO is being used to monitor thousands of individuals, from political and business leaders to journalists and activists. Is it possible to develop norms in this domain, especially given how extensively the US conducts its own spying? What is different (if anything) about these events, and can a rules-based order that regulates this behaviour be built? As the podcast wraps up, Allan briefly discusses the recent APEC extraordinary meeting, the first of its kind for the organisation. Can the vigour of hosts New Zealand breathe new life into a troubled organisation? Finally, exclusive reporting by the ABC suggests the Australian government is considering returning a presence to Afghanistan, which would represent a rapid reversal of the decision to close the embassy indefinitely just a few months ago. Why? We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.      Relevant links MArise Payne and Zed Seselja, “Kathryn Campbell AO CSC announced as new DFAT Secretary”, Media Release, 9 July 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/kathryn-campbell-ao-csc-announced-new-dfat-secretary Dave Sharma, “A diplomatic step-up to match our military step-up”, Lowy Interpreter, 13 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/diplomatic-step-match-our-military-step Alex Oliver, “A budget of skewed priorities”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 October 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/budget-of-skewed-priorities Marise Payne, Karen Andrews and Peter Dutton, “Australia joins international partners in attribution of malicious cyber activity to China”, Media Release, 19 July 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/australia-joins-international-partners-attribution-malicious-cyber-activity-china Zolan Kanno-Youngs and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Accuses China of Hacking Microsoft”, The New York Times, 19 July 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/us/politics/microsoft-hacking-china-biden.html “Chinese Embassy Spokesperson's Responding to the Australian Side's Remarks on Cyber Issues”, Media Release, 20 July 2021: http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1893534.htm Andy Greenberg, “How China’s Hacking Entered a Reckless New Phase”, Wired, 19 July 2021: https://www.wired.com/story/china-hacking-reckless-new-phase/ International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Cyber Capabilities and National Power: A Net Assessment”, Researhc Paper, 29 June 2021: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/06/cyber-capabilities-national-power Dana Priest, Craig Timberg and Souad Mekhennet, “ Private Israeli spyware used to hack cellphones of journalists, activists worldwide”, Washington Post, 18 July 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2021/nso-spyware-pegasus-cellphones/ Scott Morrison, APEC Virtual Informal Leaders’ Meeting, Transcript, 17 July 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/apec-virtual-informal-leaders-meeting Andrew Probyn, “Australia considering future return to Afghanistan to monitor Taliban resurgence”, ABC News, 20 July 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/australia-considering-return-afghanistan

In an episode recorded on 24 June, Allan and Darren take a step back from the news to discuss an emerging theme in international affairs: the competition of systems, which arrays liberal democracies against various types of authoritarianism, with the China model most prominent. President Biden has made both restoring American democracy, and cooperation with likeminded democracies, core pillars of his foreign policy. Allan and Darren compare and contrast Biden’s approach with the neoconservative vision from the early 2000s. What is notable is his inward focus on restoring the health of American democracy, which they agree is a necessary starting point. But what then does a “competition of systems” actually entail? Darren tries to articulate a concrete theory of the case, which leads into a longer discussion of the differences between foreign policy, diplomacy and grand strategy, and the extent to which the world has changed since the Treaties of Westphalia in 1648! While it’s clear demonstrating the continuing success of democratic models is essential to western leadership of the international order, can democracy be an organising principle of international cooperation? Should the trajectory of other political systems be a matter of direct national interest? Is there a concrete policy agenda that does not collapse into the flawed neoconservative approach or complete hypocrisy? What does one do about “illiberal democracies” or “elected autocracies”? And where does Australia, and PM Morrison’s call for a “world order that favours freedom”, fit in? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for her help and bid her a fond farewell. We also thank Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.             Relevant links White House, “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance”, 3 March 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/03/interim-national-security-strategic-guidance/ Lowy Institute Poll 2021: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/ C. Lee Shea, “The longest telegram: A visionary blueprint for the comprehensive grand strategy against China we need”, War on the Rocks, 1 April 2021: https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/the-longest-telegram-a-visionary-blueprint-for-the-comprehensive-grand-strategy-against-china-we-need/ Frances Adamson, National Press Club Address, 23 June 2021: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/speech/national-press-club-address LDC Podcast, “Working From home”, 15 June 2021: https://longdistancecall.com.au/episodes/episode165

This week’s episode tracks PM Scott Morrison’s recent travels. We begin in Perth prior to his leaving the country with what Allan considers to be a major foreign policy speech. Why? Where Allan sees a definite break from decades of Australian foreign policy, Darren sees a speech responding to shifting political winds, especially with a new occupant in the White House. From Perth the PM flew to Singapore to meet with his counterpart PM Lee Hsien Loong. Lee offered some advice to Australia in its management of relations with China, which Allan wonders might signal a growing gap between Australia and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Darren tries to reconcile Lee’s advice with comments made that same week by Defence Minister Peter Dutton. The PM then arrived in the UK for the G7 summit. Was it important that he was invited? And what did Allan and Darren make of the communique? What is most interesting perhaps is the apparent return to prominence of the G7, which had for more than a decade taken a backseat to the G20. As Allan says, this is likely because of who is not at the meeting, rather than who is. Scott Morrison then wrapped up his trip with the announcement of a free trade agreement with the UK (did it deliver much?) and getting solid support from President Macron in his bilateral with the French leader. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for her help audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.    Relevant links Scott Morrison, “Address to the Perth USAsia Centre”, Perth, 9 June 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-perth-usasia-centre-perth-wa Daniel Hurst, “Peter Dutton flags more US troops on Australian soil citing potential China conflict”, The Guardian, 10 June 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/10/peter-dutton-flags-more-us-troops-on-australian-soil-citing-potential-china-conflict Scott Morrison and Lee Hsien Loong, Press Conference Transcript, The Istana, Singapore, 11 June 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-istana-singapore 2021 G7 Leaders' communiqué: Our shared agenda for global action to build back better, 13 June 2021: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/06/13/2021-g7-leaders-communique/ Fact Sheet: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, The White House, 12 June 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/12/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-g7-leaders-launch-build-back-better-world-b3w-partnership/ “G7 summit: China says small groups do not rule the world”, BBC News, 13 June 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57458822 Jeff Wilson (@JDWilson08), twitter thread on the Australia-UK free trade agreement, 16 June 2021: https://twitter.com/JDWilson08/status/1404958048561496070 Andrew Tillett, “UK trade deal ‘rights a historic wrong’”, Australian Financial Review, 16 June 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/uk-trade-deal-rights-a-historic-wrong-20210616-p581ey Martin Wolf, “The US should spurn the false promise of protectionism”, Financial Times, 15 June 2021: https://www.ft.com/content/4edc2c5a-298f-4edd-81b7-5b94b7b23b93 “French President Emmanuel Macron backs Australia amid trade conflict with China”, ABC News, 16 June 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-16/french-president-emmanuel-macron-support-china-australia-trade/100220484 “Ninth Japan-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial Consultations”, 9 June 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/ninth-japan-australia-22-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-consultations Peter Dutton, “Address to Australian Strategic Policy Institute Conference, Canberra”, 10 June 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/address-australi

In the second half of this double episode with China expert Linda Jakobson, the conversation takes a broader focus. Allan begins with Taiwan, which has been in the headlines lately: how should we think about the dangers? What would it take for Beijing to use military force to resolve the situation? The bulk of the episode is about the Australia-China relationship. How does Linda interpret the decline in bilateral relations—how much is it Australia’s ‘fault’ and how much is it China’s? What is the pathway forward? Linda offers her view, and then Darren and Allan provide their own assessments. Has China made up its mind about Australia? Finally, how can the West influence China and shape its choices? Is the deterrence/engagement binary a useful frame for thinking about the options? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for help with research and audio editing, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Linda Jakobson,  “Why should Australia be concerned about… rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait?”, China Matters Explores February 2021, https://chinamatters.org.au/policy-brief/policy-brief-february-2021/ Linda Jakobson, ”What do we do when Beijing turns heat up on Taiwan?” Australian Financial Review, 9 February 2021: https://chinamatters.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/09.02.21-Linda-Jakobson-What-do-we-do-when-Beijing-turns-up-heat-on-Taiwan.pdf Asialink podcast, “John Howard Reflects on the China Challenge and Trump's Legacy”, 15 Nov 2020: https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/insights/asialink-milestones-john-howard-reflects-on-the-china-challenge-and-the-trump-legacy Elliott Zaagman, “A rare test for China diplomacy”, Lowy Interpreter, 18 May 2021: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/rare-test-china-diplomacy

Allan and Darren welcome Linda Jakobson to the podcast. Linda is a leading China expert, and a vital voice in Australia’s own China debate. The conversation spans almost 100 minutes and will be released in two parts. At a time when the bilateral relationship is at a fresh low, this double episode offers genuine substance and depth on how one should understand China, diagnose the deterioration in Australia-China relations, and chart a pathway forward. Linda is the founding director (and currently deputy chair) of the not-for-profit China Matters, an independent Australian policy institute (Allan sits on its Board of Directors). Linda lived and worked for over 20 years in China, including as the Beijing-based Director of the China and Global Security Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). She moved to Australia in 2011 to serve as Program Director (East Asia) at the Lowy Institute, and in 2015 she founded China Matters and was its first CEO until 2019. The focus in Part 1 is China itself. However, the conversation begins with Linda’s own personal story. Being Finnish, Allan wonders what Finland’s experience neighbouring a major power can teach Australia, while Darren asks whether Linda sees similarities between Finland’s approach and strategies in the region – are there “Finlands” in Asia? Turning to China itself, how has Linda’s understanding of China changed? And who is “China” when asking this question? Linda answers the question from different perspectives. Is China exceptional in what it wants? The conversation turns to domestic politics. What is the range of views inside the country on the direction China is taking? To what extent is there pushback against Xi Jinping’s approach, and what could be the mechanisms through which change comes? How big is China’s political elite, anyway? And how can observers even answer these questions, given the increasingly closed nature of the Chinese system. Is “Pekingology” going to resemble Kremlinology? Stay tuned for Part 2 of the conversation! As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for help with research and audio editing, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Linda’s biography: http://lindajakobson.com/?page_id=74 Linda Jakobson, “What does China want? Xi Jinping and the path to greatness”, Australian Foreign Affairs, Issue 1, 18 Oct 2017:  https://chinamatters.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/What-does-China-want-Linda-Jakobson-Australian-Foreign-Affairs-Issue-1.pdf Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim, “How China is remaking the world in its vision”. Extract from chapter in Australian Foreign Affairs, The Conversation, 22 Feb 2021: https://theconversation.com/how-china-is-remaking-the-world-in-its-vision-155377 Melissa Conley Tyler and Julian Dusting, “What should Australia do about…its foreign interference and espionage laws?” China Matters Explores, May 2021: https://chinamatters.org.au/policy-brief/policy-brief-may-2021/ Nick Bisley, “China drops the mask on its global ambition”, The Lowy Interpreter, 22 Apr 2021: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-drops-mask-its-global-ambition Max Suich, “China confrontation: What were we thinking?” Australian Financial Review, 28 May 2021, https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/china-confrontation-what-were-we-thinking-20210429-p57njs Max Suich, “How Australia got badly out in front on China,” Australian Financial Review, 27 May 2021, https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/how-australia-got-badly-out-in-front-on-china-20210428-p57n8x Victor Shih and Young Yang, “The Make-up of the CCP Elite”, China Data Lab, 19 May 2021: chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/viz-blog/the-makeup-of-the-ccp-elite/

Whereas the previous episode looked at the early weeks of the Biden administration, this week Allan and Darren examine the new trajectory of US-China relations. A theatrical public session grabbed the headlines when senior officials met in Alaska, but the readouts from the closed door meetings were more positive. What should we take away from the public drama? Within a few days of that first meeting, the atmosphere became tenser with the EU joining the US, UK and Canada in sanctioning certain Chinese officials over human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Beijing was furious, and retaliated with sanctions against EU and UK individuals and entities, including academic researchers and think tanks (after recording, Chinese sanctions were also announced on individuals in the US and Canada). Was this a reciprocal response, or were the Chinese escalating? With ratification of an investment agreement between the EU and China before the European Parliament, the sanctions dispute may end up demonstrating how the “adversarial” dimensions of the China’s relationship with the West can spill over and undermine a “collaborative” enterprise, to use Secretary Blinken’s formulation. And given China’s disdain and vitriol towards any criticism of its human rights record, what can the West hope to achieve in this domain? While Australia did not impose its own sanctions, it supported the effort in a joint statement with New Zealand. Allan and Darren mull over Australia’s own dilemma regarding human rights and China, as well as other news on the relationship. Australia’s Ambassador in Beijing, Graham Fletcher, made some very pointed comments to an Australian business audience, describing the trade disruptions as “vindictive”. Meanwhile, Canberra received support from an unexpected source, the Secretary General of NATO, former Norwegian PM Jens Stoltenberg, who said China “had behaved very badly against Australia”. As the podcast draws to a close, Allan and Darren consider the outcomes from the Quad leaders’ meeting, which for Darren are a useful indication of the type of international cooperation that could become the norm in the future. Finally, with former Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann winning his campaign to be elected the next Secretary General of the OECD, Allan discusses the behind-the-scenes effort that would have gone into the campaign, and the significance of his success for Australia. We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for research and audio editing today, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links “How it happened: Transcript of the US-China opening remarks in Alaska”, Nikkei Asia, 19 March 2021: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/How-it-happened-Transcript-of-the-US-China-opening-remarks-in-Alaska Xinhua Commentary, “Dialogue, win-win are right choices for China-U.S. relations”, 21 March 2021: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-03/21/c_139824328.htm   Thomas Wright, “The U.S. and China Finally Get Real With Each Other”, The Atlantic, 21 March 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/03/the-us-and-china-finally-get-real-with-each-other/618345/   Richard Maude, “Australia’s China Debate – Where to Now? Asia Society , 25 March 2021: https://asiasociety.org/australia/australias-china-debate-where-now “EU imposes further sanctions over serious violations of human rights around the world”, Press release, 22 March 2021: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/03/22/eu-imposes-further-sanctions-over-serious-violations-of-human-rights-around-the-world/ “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Announces Sanctions on Relevant EU Entities and Personnel”, 22 March 2021: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2535_665405/t1863106.shtml Bill Bishop, “Xi in Fujian; Xinjiang cotton mess; Yuan Peng on PRC-EU relations”, Sinocism, 26 March 2021: https://sinocism.com/p/xi-in-fujian-xinjiang-cotton-mess Stephen Dziedzic,

The major focus this episode is the early weeks of the Biden administration, which has raced out of the blocks with numerous foreign policy actions, and some have been controversial. Nevertheless, how does it feel to have things (roughly) back to normal again? Putting the news of the day to one side, Allan and Darren direct their attention to two speeches, one given by President Biden, and the other by Secretary of State Blinken, which chart a course for US foreign policy. What will it mean for the US to lead again? Is a “foreign policy for the American people” simply “America First with better manners”? Darren sees parallels with PM Morrison’s concept of “negative globalism”, and he does not see this as a terrible thing! And all the new administration’s emphasis on democratic renewal, what would a realistic plan in this domain look like – is one even possible? The White House also realised an interim national security strategic guidance entitled “Renewing America’s Advantages”. At an impressive 7,000 words in length, it presents much more detail on how the Biden team sees the world. Darren wonders however at the inherent contradictions in its objectives, while Allan notices—tucked right at back of the document—a remarkable, even radical, vision for reforming the basic structure of national security policymaking in Washington. Canberra should take notice. Next, with the inaugural Quad leaders meeting happening later that day, Allan and Darren both offer their thoughts about the grouping and what it can become into the future. Finally, the Pacific Islands Forum is on life-support following the announcement that its five Micronesian members intended to withdraw following a dispute over the election of a new Secretary General. Why does this matter for Australia and what is to be done? We welcome our new AIIA intern Dominique Yap and thank her for research and audio editing today. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Remarks by President Biden on America’s Place in the World, US State Department Headquarters, 4 February 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/ Anthony Blinken, “A Foreign Policy for the American People”, Speech, Washington DC, 3 March 2021: https://www.state.gov/a-foreign-policy-for-the-american-people/ Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, “Renewing America’s Advantages”, March 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf Sinica podcast, “Getting Chinese politics wrong, with Jude Blanchette”, 4 March 2021: https://supchina.com/podcast/getting-chinese-politics-wrong-with-jude-blanchette/ Tweet thread from Darren explaining the formation of his Clubhouse group, The IDC: The Interdepartmental Committee: https://twitter.com/limdarrenj/status/1367578015815901185?s=20

Natasha Kassam of the Lowy Institute joins the podcast this week, to join Darren in facing interrogation from Allan arising from their co-authored essay, published this week in Australian Foreign Affairs (Issue 11) entitled “Future Shock: How to Prepare for a China-led World”. The questions the essay tries to answer are: what would China’s leadership of the international order look like, what does this mean for Australia, and what (if anything) can Australia do to protect its interests? What follows is a genuinely substantive and complex discussion about the nature of China’s intentions for the global order and the consequences of its actions. Does China—or more accurately the Chinese Community Party—really need the liberal dimensions of the order “suppressed or eliminated”, as Natasha and Darren argue? If so, which parts? The issue of transparency is central to their argument, and the domains of public health and human rights are key examples. Nevertheless, is China’s challenge to the order that different from that of any other rising power, or Donald Trump for that matter? And which actions represent genuine challenges, versus a more traditional assertion of interests, such as Joe Biden’s recent claim that America’s democratic values are “the grounding wire of… our global power”? And finally, what can Australia do? The China debate in Australia has become increasingly fraught and acrimonious in recent years and, as always, this episode represents an effort to hash out complex and truly difficult issues by providing all three participants the time and space to contextualise (and caveat) their views. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with audio editing today and, as he departs, more generally for outstanding work during his time with us, as well as Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Australian Foreign Affairs, Issue 11, “The march of autocracy” (2021): https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/essay/2021/02/the-march-of-autocracy Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim “How China is remaking the world in its vision”, The Conversation, 22 February 2021 (extract of AFA essay): https://theconversation.com/how-china-is-remaking-the-world-in-its-vision-155377 Kai Kupferschmidt, “ ‘Politics was always in the room.’ WHO mission chief reflects on China trip seeking COVID-19’s origin” Science, 14 February 2021: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/politics-was-always-room-who-mission-chief-reflects-china-trip-seeking-covid-19-s Mara Hvistendahl, “How Oracle sells repression in China”, The Intercept, 18 February 2021: https://theintercept.com/2021/02/18/oracle-china-police-surveillance/ Marise Payne, “Australia and the world in the time of Covid-19” Speech at the National Security College, ANU, 16 June 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/australia-and-world-time-covid-19 António Guterres, “Secretary-General Guterres calls for a global reset, ‘to recover better, guided by human rights’”, Speech to the Human Rights Council, 22 February 2021: https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=26769 Jon Emont, “How China Persuaded One Muslim Nation to Keep Silent on Xinjiang Camps”, Wall Street Journal, 11 December 2019: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-persuaded-one-muslim-nation-to-keep-silent-on-xinjiang-camps-11576090976 Joe Biden, “Remarks on America’s place in the world” US State Department HQ, 4 February 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/

Allan and Darren welcome Professor Howard Bamsey to the podcast, who offers unmatched experience regarding Australia’s international engagement with the issue of climate change. Beginning his professional life in DFAT, Howard has worked in almost all the parts of the Australian government dealing with climate change, including the Departments of the Environment and Climate Change. He has been CEO of the Australian Greenhouse Office, Australia’s special envoy on climate change, the Ambassador for the Environment, Ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva and Special Adviser on Green Growth to AusAid. He was director-general of the Global Green Growth Institute, is currently chair of the Global Water Partnership and Honorary Professor in the School of Regulation and Global Governance at the ANU, and is a member of the boards of the Climate Policy Initiative and Climate Works Australia. For those listeners who do not follow it closely, the conversation begins with an introduction to the issue of climate change. What is the scale and urgency of the climate challenge the planet confronts right now? What are the institutions and processes through which the international community is trying to address these challenges? In answering these questions, Howard describes Australia’s contribution to the international architecture that now exists. Yet the current Australian government’s position remains an outlier, especially regarding a commitment to carbon neutrality, why? How “pragmatic” are Australians in international negotiations? How does the issue of climate change affect our relationship with our neighbours in the South Pacific – what are we doing, and what can we do better? The conversation turns to domestic politics – is climate change a “culture war” issue? And what strategy should the international community adopt to shift Australian policy? Looking ahead to the next COP meeting in Glasgow, Allan asks Howard what a Biden presidency will mean for Australia, while Darren asks what role the UN and international cooperation can play into the future in facilitating investment. Finally, what does Howard say to young people about the trajectory of climate change action? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Horward Bamsey, short biography: https://climate.anu.edu.au/about/people/academics/prof-howard-bamsey Gideon Rachman, “The perilous politics of climate change”, Financial Times, 1 July 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/70f290de-9bd8-11e9-9c06-a4640c9feebb

In this emergency episode, Allan and Darren react to a tumultuous few weeks in Australia’s bilateral relationship with China. Events discussed include: the “14 points” document provided by the Chinese embassy to Australian journalists, new anti-dumping duties on Australian wine, PM Morrison’s speech to a UK think tank, and the hugely controversial image depicting an Australian soldier tweeted out by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, and the PM’s call for an apology in response.  Relevant links Scott Morrison, “UK Policy Exchange Virtual Address”, 23 November 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/uk-policy-exchange-virtual-address  Darren Lim and Victor Ferguson, “A collective approach to countering Chinese economic bullying may be Australia’s best option”, The Guardian, 28 November 2020: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/28/a-collective-approach-to-countering-chinese-economic-bullying-may-be-australias-best-option Bill Bishop, Sinocism newsletter: https://sinocism.com/

Feeling particularly reflective as the US electoral process inches toward a conclusion, Allan and Darren chat about what they see as the short- and long-term challenges facing Australian foreign policy. In the short term, the bilateral relationship with China looms largest. Allan makes that case that the Prime Minister (or Foreign Minister) should make a speech clearly outlining Australia’s position, while Darren wonders whether the PM has already said what he wants to say. And what specific diplomatic moves available to the government? Darren offers some thoughts on whether the ongoing trade disruptions are simply coercion, or whether other geoeconomic or industry policy motives may be a factor. The two also debate the distinction between “the Chinese government” and “the CCP”, and compare it to distinguishing the Trump administration from the United States as a whole. The other major short-term issue discussed is cooperation with Australia’s regional partners, Southeast Asia in particular. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may offer an opportunity for Australia to develop deeper ties, though Darren raises whether shared security interests are a necessary condition for really substantive cooperation. He also speculates on whether Australia’s experience with economic coercion and protecting against foreign interference could be a useful source of advice, while Allan counters that Asian nations have been grappling with these questions for decades, even centuries! Allan also previews PM Morrison’s trip to Japan this week. Looking to the longer term, Allan and Darren describe a range of possible futures, the kinds of investment strategies Australia could pursue now to prepare for future challenges, and potential risks to a long-term strategy. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links PM Lee Hsien Loong gave the keynote address at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue Opening Dinner on 31 May 2019 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-at-the-IISS-Shangri-La-Dialogue-2019 Lee Hsien Loong, “The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2020-06-04/lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-century Stephen Dziedzic, “Scott Morrison unveils Government plans to reassert Australia's influence in South-East Asia”, ABC News, 14 November 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-14/australia-canberra-new-aid-south-east-asia-scott-morrison/12883088 Joe Biden, “Why American must lead again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again Government of Victoria, “Victorian Pledge For Institute Of Infectious Disease”, 13 November 2020: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorian-pledge-institute-infectious-disease Tim Alberta, “Elissa Slotkin Braces for a Democratic Civil War”, 13 November 2020: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/13/elissa-slotkin-braces-for-a-democratic-civil-war-436301 David French, Divided we fall: America’s secession threat and how to restore our nation”, Pan Macmillan Australia: https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781250201973/  Ezra Klein podcast interview with Evan Osnos, “Joe Biden, explained”, 7 November 2020: https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast/2020/11/7/21554198/joe-biden-evan-osnos-president-2020-election-white-house-donald-trump Little Red Podcast, “Xi Dada and Daddy: Power, the Party and the President”, 2 November 2020: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/xi-dada-and-daddy-power-the-party-and-the-presiden?in_playlist=the-little-red-podcast!podcast “P.E. with Joe”, Monday 23 March 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz0go1pTda8

Thrilled that the podcast is about to cross the 100,000 lifetime download threshold (thank you all!), Allan and Darren try something new this week – answering mailbag questions. Is the US a ‘failed state’, and would ‘strategic autonomy’ be realistic for Australia? Will the title of Allan’s book on Australian foreign policy, “Fear of abandonment”, be appropriate for the next 70 years of Australian foreign policy? Are there any lessons for Australia and the Indo-Pacific from the recent ‘Abraham Accords’ between Israel and the UAE/Bahrain? Is the Quad viable as an ‘Arc of Democracy’, and are there any major takeaways from the ministerial in Tokyo this past week? Allan and Darren have their strongest disagreement in assigning a grade to the Australian government’s China policy since 2017, and have an interesting discussion about what control any government can have over public discourse. Next, what will the DFAT of 2050 look like? And finishing with some ‘meta’ questions – is the podcast a useful vehicle to help discipline their thoughts, and has each changed the other’s mind? We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and XC Chong for research support. Thanks as always to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Hugh White, How to defend Australia (2019): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/how-defend-australia Allan Gyngell, Fear of abandonment: Australia in the world since 1942 (2017): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment Allan Renouf, The frightened country (1979): https://www.awm.gov.au/collection/LIB16176 Brendan Taylor, “Realist optimist: Coral Bell’s contribution to Australian foreign and defence policy (2014): http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p303831/pdf/9.-Realist-Optimist-Coral-Bell%E2%80%99s-Contribution-to-Australian-Foreign-and-Defence-Policy.pdf Marise Payne, “Australia-India-Japan-United States Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting”, Media Release, 6 October 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/australia-india-japan-united-states-quad-foreign-ministers-meeting Scott Morrison, “Where we live”, Speech at Asialink, 27 June 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/budget-of-skewed-priorities Alex Oliver, “A budget of skewed priorities”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 October 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/budget-of-skewed-priorities Allan Gyngell and Michael Wesley, Making Australian Foreign policy (2012): https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139168632 John Lewis Gaddis, George F. Kennan: An American Life (2011), Goodreads page: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11910982-george-f-kennan Christopher Hill, The changing politics of foreign policy (2003), Goodreads page: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/414234.The_Changing_Politics_of_Foreign_Policy Evan Osnos, Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China (2014), Goodreads page: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18490568-age-of-ambition Richard McGregor, The Party: The secret world of China’s communist rulers (2010), Goodreads page: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7822182-the-party

Allan and Darren return once again to the Australia-China relationship to begin today’s episode. The particular topic is foreign interference, in the wake of accusations by the Chinese government that PRC journalists working in Australia had their homes raided by law enforcement in June. Darren characterises this as an instance where a domestic policy action—here a foreign interference investigation—has obvious foreign policy implications, and asks Allan whether in these types of cases the Australian government would brief foreign counterparts, and whether domestic law enforcement agencies might involve DFAT in their decision-making. A recent column by Paul Kelly of The Australian newspaper that is critical of the government’s policy towards China is brought into the conversation. Darren wonders whether it is impossible to have a coherent foreign policy approach towards China when domestic policy actions will inevitably affect the bilateral relationship. For Allan this is a relatively normal situation that all governments have to manage. For the second half of the episode, the conversation begins on the topic of trilateral gatherings, in light of a recent meeting between Australia, India and France, and the possibility of a trilateral with India and Indonesia in the near future. What is the logic of having three countries meet, and what outcomes might follow? Darren asks Allan for his “theory” of trilateralism, and while Allan is reluctant, Darren is happy with his answer! Next, the two discuss the elevation of Suga Yoshihide to Prime Minister of Japan, and how he may contrast with his predecessor despite intending to continue with Abe Shinzo’s policies. And finally, Allan discusses why the protests against the monarchy and military in Thailand are important, despite minimal attention here in Australia. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and XC Chong for research support. Thanks as always to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Stephen Dziedzic and Sean Rubinsztein-Dunlop, “China slams Australian Government for 'blatant irrational behaviour' over foreign interference investigation”, ABC News, 9 September: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-10/chinese-government-slams-australia-blatant-irrational-over-raids/12647738 Paul Kelly, “Our China relationship needs help before it’s too late”, The Australian, 16 September 2020: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/our-china-relationship-needs-help-before-its-too-late/news-story/0c37e5bb3480b0d48f55fc935491103b Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “First Australia-India-France Trilateral Dialogue”, Media Release, 9 September 2020: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/media-release/first-australia-india-france-trilateral-dialogue Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Third India-Australia-Indonesia Trilateral Senior Officials’ Dialogue”, Media Release, 18 December 2019: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/media/Pages/third-india-australia-indonesia-trilateral-senior-officials-dialogue Patpicha Tanakasempipat and Matthew Tostevin, “Thai protesters challenge monarchy as huge protests escalate”, Sydney Morning Herald, September 2020: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/thai-protesters-challenge-monarchy-as-huge-protests-escalate-20200920-p55xg9.html PM Scott Morrison interviewed by David Spears on Insiders, 20 September 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/insiders/prime-minister-scott-morrison/12682638 Martin Gurri, The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/22451908-the-revolt-of-the-public-and-the-crisis-of-authority Joseph Nye, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Oxford University Press: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/do-morals-matter-presidents-and-foreign-policy-fdr-trump The Social Dilemma (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/ie/title/81254224 Ezra Klein, “How technology is designed to bring out the worst i

Recording early afternoon on Wednesday 7 September, Allan and Darren begin by grappling with the previous day’s news of the arrival back in Australia of the last two China correspondents from Australian media outlets: the ABC’s Bill Birtles and the AFR’s Mike Smith. Darren tries to piece together his own theory of what happened, and Allan offers some insight on the mechanics behind DFAT’s role in cases like these, both in warning Australians of risks, and then the decision to shelter them, in this case while negotiating their safe departure from China. Note that the conversation occurred before more details emerged of allegations by PRC state media of “raids” on PRC journalists in Australia by national security agencies, and news of the cancellation of visas for two Chinese scholars. The discussion turns next to the speech delivered by the Deputy Head of Mission at the Chinese embassy, Wang Xining, at the National Press Club in late August. Allan explains the types of constraints on all diplomats in giving a speech like this, and both he and Darren agree that the prepared text did seem to lean more towards conciliatory than provocative. In the context of a very low month in the bilateral relationship, which also included new investigations into Australian wine exports, the detention of another Australian citizen, CGTN anchor Cheng Lei, and Australia's blocking of an acquisition by a PRC company of a Japanese-owned milk processing company on national interest grounds, they wonder whether the speech will have any lasting impact. In light of some recent analysis Darren asks, is Australia only recently “standing up” to China, or has Australia’s approach been consistent, as claimed by PM Morrison? Allan and Darren both weigh on the Foreign Affairs Bill announced by the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister recently, which if it becomes law is expected to enable Canberra to cancel the Belt and Road Initiative MOU signed by the State of Victoria. As a historian of Australian foreign policy, Allan cannot recall a single issue where state actions have been a real problem for Australian foreign policy, and he observes that the “national interest” test could be wielded in very different ways by different governments into the future. Finally, the two discuss the legacy of retiring Japanese Prime Minster Abe Shinzo, and Allan offers his view on the merits of former PM Tony Abbott taking a position advising the UK government on trade policy. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and XC Chong for research support. Thanks as always to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Matthew Doran and Stephen Dziedzic, “Australian correspondents Bill Birtles and Mike Smith pulled out of China after five-day diplomatic standoff over national security case”, ABC News, 8 September 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/bill-birtles-mike-smith-evacuated-china-safety-concerns/12638786   “Political retaliation: China correspondent Bill Birtles on being forced home under threats from Beijing”, ABC PM (Radio), 8 September 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/china-correspondent-bill-birtles-on-being-forced-home/12642502 Jade Macmillan, “Cheng Lei, Australian anchor detained in Beijing, accused of 'endangering China's national security'”, ABC News, 8 September 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/australian-anchor-cheng-lei-china-endanger-national-security/12642596   Global Times, “Australian agents raid Chinese journalists' residences, seize computers 'in violation of legitimate rights': source”, 8 September 2020: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200286.shtml   Wang Xining, “China and Australia: Where to from here?”, Address at the National Press Club, 26 August 2020: http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/gdtp_16/t1809360.htm Phillip Coorey, “Morrison sticks to new China doctrine”, Australian Financial Review, 31 August 2020: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/mo

In part two of Richard Maude’s return to the podcast, the conversation begins with China. Was Richard “surprised” by Beijing’s promulgation of the Hong Kong National Security Law? Should the Australian government be updating its priors regarding the level of risk China is willing to take, and would such an updating have any policy consequences? What then about Taiwan? A serious Taiwan contingency would not be a surprise—does it pose the greatest challenge for the new strategic objectives outlined by Prime Minister Morrison in his speech launching Australia’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update? And on the topic of technological decoupling, Darren tries to separate the technical dimensions of the policy challenge from the politics. To what extent are Western concerns simply a matter of a lack of trust, given the tight relationship between Chinese companies and the state? Can anything be done to alleviate these concerns, or is the larger structural force of major power rivalry depriving individual governments of any agency to arrest this trend? The structural forces potentially driving the decoupling phenomenon link up with the next major theme—the future of international cooperation. The term “Five Eyes” has been appearing in the media a lot lately in multiple different contexts—what should we make of this trend? Does the future of international cooperation lie through the filter of trusted security partnerships, and isn’t that a problem for truly global problems like climate change? Finally, the conversation concludes with a focus on Australian foreign policy. How well suited are the traditional instruments of Australia’s power and influence to the present moment? Does our path forward involve simply being the best version of ourselves, or is genuinely creative thinking needed to reform Australian diplomacy? And would there be merit in having a foreign affairs version of the recent Defence Strategic Update? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Richard Maude’s biography via the Asia Society Policy Institute: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Scott Morrison, “Address: Launch of the 2020 Defence Strategic Update”, 1 July 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-launch-2020-defence-strategic-update Little Red Podcast, “Trump’s F*** China moment: An attitude, not a strategy”, 1 August 2020: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/trumps-f-china-moment-an-attitude-not-a-strategy Sinica podcast, “Adam Tooze on the geopolitics of the pandemic”, 6 August 2020: https://supchina.com/podcast/adam-tooze-on-the-geopolitics-of-the-pandemic/ Marise Payne, “Australia and the world in the time of COVID-19”, Speech at the National Security College, ANU, 16 June: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/australia-and-world-time-covid-19

This week Allan and Darren welcome back Richard Maude to the podcast, who returns after his first appearance back in February in Episode 41. Until shortly before that first recording, Richard was Deputy Secretary, Indo-Pacific Group, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Prior to that, he headed the task force responsible for drafting the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper. From 2013-2016, Richard was Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, and before that he was senior adviser on foreign policy and national security to Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Richard is now at the Asia Society Policy Institute as the inaugural Executive Director, Policy, and Senior Fellow. Before welcoming Richard however, Darren’s big “secret” is revealed, which is that since late 2018 he has been living in Beirut, accompanying his wife Rebekah Grindlay, who is Australia’s Ambassador to Lebanon, and their children. On Tuesday 4th August, Beirut experienced one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in human history, which utterly devastated the city’s port and downtown area. Darren was at home with his family at the time, and tells the story of what happened next, including the extensive damage to the embassy and injuries to Aussie diplomats. It’s a small insight into what a DFAT crisis response looks like in the immediate aftermath of a terrible tragedy. Richard is then welcomed, and what follows is a fascinating deep dive into some of the biggest questions of international affairs today, and what they mean for Australian foreign policy. The conversation was too long to fit into a single episode and so, in this first part, the focus is exclusively on the United States, which as the Australian government says in the recent Defence Strategic Update, remains vital for the security of our region. But can Washington continue to play the role Australia hopes, and needs, it to play? Darren asks both Richard and Allan to highlight what evidence from the Trump presidency, and the country’s COVID-19 response, helps shed light on this broader question. Is America experiencing political decay? Are the strengths that enabled it to win the Cold War now hindrances in competition with China? What does the US need to do well to continue to play a significant role in the region, and what can Australia do to help? Can Canberra perhaps mitigate some of Washington’s weaknesses? Stay tuned for part 2, where the conversation turns to China, new models of international cooperation, and the future of Australian foreign policy. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Richard Maude’s biography via the Asia Society Policy Institute: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Australian Government, “2020 Defence Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan”, Department of Defence: https://www.defence.gov.au/strategicupdate-2020/ Ross Douthat, “The revolt of the republican strategists”, New York Times, 11 August 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/opinion/trump-republicans-lincoln-project.html

On this week’s episode, the deteriorating relationship between Washington and Beijing takes centre stage, including the consulate closures in Houston and Chengdu. What’s going on, and why now? How much is this all about American electoral politics, and does that even matter? Perhaps most important, how much of the trajectory of the relationship is the result of the Trump administration specifically—and could be changed if Joe Biden wins in November—and how much is structural and will persist no matter who prevails in the presidential election? Australia’s Foreign and Defence Ministers made the big decision to travel in person to Washington DC for the annual AUSMIN consultations. But before they arrived, Australia publicly clarified its position on the South China Sea, broadly rejecting the sweeping nature of China’s maritime claims. Was the timing significant, and should we see this action more through the lens of US-China rivalry, or the positions of the other claimant states? Turning to AUSMIN, how consequential was the decision of the ministers to travel, and what messages did it send? Notwithstanding the symbolism of being there in person, the Australian side sought to establish its independence, and Allan and Darren offer their overall assessments of the meeting. Finally, the two discuss the Defence Strategic Update, juxtaposing it with a recently announced staffing reduction at DFAT. We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and XC Chong for research support. Thanks as always to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Edward Wong and Steven Lee Myers, “Officials push US-China Relations toward point of no return” New York times, 25 July 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/asia/us-china-trump-xi.html Sui-Lee Wee and Paul Mozur, “China Uses DNA to Map Faces, With Help From the West”, New York Times, 3 December 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/03/business/china-dna-uighurs-xinjiang.html The Ezra Klein Show, “Your questions, answered”, June 2020: https://player.fm/series/the-ezra-klein-show/your-questions-answered Rebecca Strating, “Australia lays down the law in the South China Sea dispute”, Lowy Interpreter, 25 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-lays-down-law-south-china-sea-dispute Joint Statement Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2020: https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/united-states-of-america/ausmin/joint-statement-ausmin-2020 Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), Transcript, 29 July 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/transcript/australia-united-states-ministerial-consultations-ausmin Stephen Dziedzic, “Foreign Minister makes clear Australia will not be boxed in when it comes to China or the US”, ABC News, 29 July 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-29/ausmin-australia-united-states-china-relationship-diplomacy/12502222 Japan-Australia Leaders VTC Meeting, Media Release, 9 July 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/japan-australia-leaders-vtc-meeting Rory Medcalf, “Shinzo Abe has made Japan a leader again”, Australian Financial Review, 10 July 2020: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/shinzo-abe-has-made-japan-a-leader-again-20200710-p55av8 2020 Defence Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan: https://www.defence.gov.au/strategicupdate-2020/ Scott Morrison, “Address: Launch of the 2020 Defence Strategic Update”, 1 July 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-launch-2020-defence-strategic-update Sam Roggeveen, “Regional security depends on making order from chaos” Lowy Interpreter, 18 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/regional-security-depends-making-order-chaos Dave Sharma, “A diplomatic step-up to match our military step-up”, Lowy Interpreter, 13 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/diplomatic-step-match-our-military-step Jonathan Pryke, “DFAT cuts show our foreign policy’s khaki tinge”, L

Allan and Darren welcome Stephen Dziedzic to the podcast, who covers foreign affairs in the Asia Pacific region for Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, based at Parliament House in Canberra. Stephen has spent more than a decade at the ABC, including five years covering federal politics. He also spent two years working for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade at the Australian High Commission in New Delhi. The way the media covers international affairs and Australian foreign policy has come up several times on the podcast before, and at times Allan and Darren have both expressed their frustration at some of the reporting! Stephen is asked, if not to defend, at least to explain how the media operates in reporting on Australia in the world in the year 2020, and the rationale behind the coverage. After Stephen provides an overview of his career to date and interest in international affairs, Allan begins by asking how the media landscape has changed since the publication of Allan’s book in 2007 (co-authored with Michael Wesley), Making Australian Foreign Policy. To what extent do the traditional media outlets still act as gatekeepers? The conversation moves to some of the ins and outs of covering foreign policy in Canberra, such as government “drops” of major speeches, and dealing with embassies. Allan asks Stephen for his impression of whether DFAT does a good job of selling itself, in light of a recent critique by Dave Sharma MP. Darren looks to zoom out, asking Stephen about the broader media landscape. How much room is there for foreign policy content and what does it mean for a story to be newsworthy? What about variation in coverage—how different is the ABC to the major broadsheets, and what about the tabloids? After his recent brush with tabloid fame, Allan puts to Stephen the critique that editors act like TV “showrunners”, working to ensure that whatever twists the plot takes, it remains faithful to a predetermined overall narrative. Is that critique unfair? Stephen’s thoughtful response covers a lot of ground, including many of the tricky ethical issues involved and the civic responsibilities of journalists. Following on, Darren is particularly interested in the decision to grant anonymity to government leaks. Allan muses about how difficult it is to get ministers to focus on issues of long-term importance, and the immediacy of media coverage creates similar challenges. How can a journalist turn something s/he knows to be important into news, and does social media help or hurt with that? In the final part of the conversation, Darren pivots to domestic politics, and asks specifically about the “Wolverines” group of MPs who take a hard line on China policy. Is there a political logic to their grouping? Allan asks if generational differences may play a role in explaining divides on China policy. The interview concludes on the distinction between “public interest” and “national interest” in an era of growing geopolitical rivalry. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic’s ABC page: https://www.abc.net.au/news/stephen-dziedzic/166934?nw=0 Dave Sharma, “A diplomatic step-up to match our military step up”, Lowy Interpreter, 13 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/diplomatic-step-match-our-military-step Michael Koziol, “'Seriously damaging': ASIO says advice on border security was misrepresented”, Sydney Morning Herald, 18 February 2019: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/seriously-damaging-asio-says-advice-on-border-security-was-misrepresented-20190218-p50ykq.html

As Allan and Darren commence with their next 50 episodes, they begin with the 2020 Lowy Poll. Allan in particular is interested in the rise in Australians saying they do not feel safe, and Darren wonders what impact this will have on public attitudes towards security policy. Meanwhile, Darren is interested whether the poll reflects the sentiments expressed in PM Morrison's "negative globalism" speech last year.  Tensions at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that represents the disputed border between India and China are next on the agenda. While both sides seem to want to deescalate tensions, the question is what the longer term impacts might be. Just as China's recent actions have affected domestic politics inside Australia, Darren wonders whether the deaths of Indian soldiers might push India firmly into the "balancing" column. Moreover, with New Delhi's decision to ban the China-based app Tik-Tok and a number of other Chinese apps, these consequences appear to be extending beyond the military domain. Drama continues to define bilateral relations between Australia and China. Darren opts to focus this week on a recent report from state-owned tabloid the Global Times, which says the Chinese government had uncovered an Australian intelligence operation. These claims were supported by Chinese government spokesperson Zhao Lijian who made note that 'irrefutable evidence' of the operation existed. What might this mean for Australian nationals within China, and how can the Australian government protect its citizens? Darren looks to DFAT's 'smarttraveller' travel advice website for answers, and in doing so discovers a fresh update on Hong Kong, in light of the new national security law being imposed by Beijing.  Finally, Darren gives Allan the opportunity to respond to his own appearance in the headlines of certain Australian tabloid newspapers in recent weeks, after he was invited to speak on China to the Labor Party shadow cabinet. While Allan has recovered fully from this brush with infamy, both he and Darren worry about what these events say about the health of Australia's political institutions.  We thank incoming AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing, and bid farewell to Maddie Gordon with many thanks. Thanks as always to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  Relevant Links Lowy Poll 2020: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/ Darren Lim, "A pivot to globalism, but grievances lurk", Lowy Interpreter, 24 June: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/pivot-globalism-grievances-lurk Mohamed Younis, "Americans Want More, Not Less, Immigration for First Time", Gallup, 1 July: https://news.gallup.com/poll/313106/americans-not-less-immigration-first-time.aspx Fan Lingzhi and Yang Sheng, "Australia wages espionage offensive against China: source", Global Times, 29 June: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192847.shtml Stephen Dziedzic, "China steps up attacks on Australia, says spying allegations just 'the tip of the iceberg'", ABC News, 30 June: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-30/china-step-up-attacks-on-australia-accuses-government-of-spying/12405842 Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, smartraveller.gov.au, travel advice for China: https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/china And travel advice for Hong Kong: https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/hong-kong "Andrew Hastie and 'Wolverines' are 'crossing a line': Former DFAT head" (Dennis Richardson's defence of Allan on Sky News), 24 June: https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6166846553001 Penny Wong, transcript of interview with Patricia Karvelas (ABC Afternoon Briefing), 25 June 2020: https://www.pennywong.com.au/transcripts/abc-news-afternoon-briefing-9/ China Matters website: http://chinamatters.org.au Bob Dylan's 'I Contain Multitudes' discussed on the ABC's The Music Show with Robert Adamson https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/musicshow/dylan-the-new-graces-robert-adamson-candelo-rou

On the occasion of the podcast’s 50th episode, Allan and Darren are thrilled to welcome Australia’s most senior diplomat and foreign policy official, Frances Adamson, the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the first woman to hold this appointment. The interview was conducted on Wednesday 17 June 2020. Immediately prior to her appointment as Secretary in August 2016, Frances was International Adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. From 2011 to 2015, she was Ambassador to the People's Republic of China, also the first woman appointed to this role. Previously, Frances served in the Australian Consulate-General in Hong Kong in the late 1980s during the early years of China's reform and opening. From 2001 to 2005, she was seconded as Representative to the Australian Commerce and Industry Office in Taipei. She was also posted twice in London, including as Deputy High Commissioner. She was Chief of Staff to the Minister for Foreign Affairs and then the Minister for Defence from 2009 to 2010. The conversation begins with Allan asking about how Frances, and the Department, have been dealing with the Covid-19 crisis, and Darren wonders whether the pandemic is upending the traditional practices of diplomacy. The discussion moves to the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper – in the time since, has Frances been more surprised by the pace of change, or its direction? Foreign policy elites have arguably been repudiated by recent political developments, such as Brexit and Donald Trump’s election victory. Allan asks Frances for her views on the political forces behind these events, and what the foreign policy establishment in Australia can learn. Zooming out, and noting that the international system is in a state of disequilibrium at the moment, Darren asks Frances to describe how she hopes the order will settle over the next few decades. Referring to Foreign Minister’s Marise Payne’s speech the previous evening, Allan asks Frances for more detail about the audit of Australia’s participation in multilateral organisations that was recently completed. Darren asks specifically about the role of “middle powers” – should they specialise given their resources are limited? The conversation moves to China. With so much material out there, what’s a good entry point for Australians seeking to learn about China, and make sense of the daily barrage of media coverage? What does it mean for both sides to “work harder” to manage the relationship? And Darren asks about the state of debate inside China – are there still live debates about the big questions of international affairs within the Chinese system, and has China made up its mind about Australia? In the final part of the podcast, Darren asks about the balance between generalists and specialists in Australia’s diplomatic corps, and about effective models of work/life balance that Frances has seen in her career. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. On this milestone episode, we also extend our heartfelt thanks to all our past interns. Without their help we could never have come this far. Thank you to Stephanie Rowell, Mani Bovell, Charlie Henshall, James Hayne, Isabel Hancock and XC Chong. Relevant links Biography of Ms Frances Adamson: https://www.dfat.gov.au/about-us/our-people/executive/Pages/biography-of-frances-adamson IPAA Podcast, “Getting Australians Home – The unfolding story: Frances Adamson.  https://www.ipaa.org.au/getting-australians-home-the-unfolding-story-frances-adamson/ Marise Payne, “Australia and the world in the time of COVID-19”, Speech at the National Security College, ANU, 16 June 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/australia-and-worl

After a month away from the news, this episode Allan and Darren try to catch up. They begin with tragedy and turmoil in the United States. What do the protests and racial tensions—and Trump’s efforts to handle them—say about the US? Are there any implications for Australia? Turning next to recent events in Australian foreign policy, we now have a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with India—is this significant? And what should PM Morrison do about President Trump’s invitation to the (delayed) G-7 summit in September? Next, while noting the story is not over, Darren asks Allan for what lessons he draws from the Australian government’s call for an independent inquiry into the early handling of Covid-19, and everything followed, culminating in the World Health Assembly resolution in mid-May. Hong Kong is next on the agenda, with a focus on the logic behind Australia’s decision to issue two joint statements criticising Beijing's recent moves, rather than going it alone, as New Zealand did. Finally, geoeconomic issues are very much back in Australian news, with proposed new foreign investment review powers for the government, a travel warning issued for Australia by the Chinese government, and reporting that the Five Eyes grouping is considering a coordinated strategic economic response to the Covid-19 crisis. What do Allan and Darren make of all this? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Ta-Nehisi Coates on the Ezra Klein show podcast: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/5/21279530/ta-nehisi-coates-ezra-klein-show-george-floyd-police-brutality-trump-biden Joint Statement on a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Republic of India and Australia, 4 June 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-csp-republic-india-australia World Health Organization, “Covid-19 Response”, 73rd World Health Assembly, Agenda Item 3, 18 May 2020: https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA73/A73_CONF1Rev1-en.pdf Editorial Board, “The Coronavirus Inquiry”, Wall Street Journal, 19 May 2020:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-inquiry-11589930551 Chen Qingqing and Liu Xin, “Australia gets ‘slap to the face’ as global community welcomes China-sponsored resolution on COVID-19”, Global Times, 19 May 2020: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1188817.shtml Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia started a fight with China over an investigation into COVID-19 — did it go too hard?” ABC News, 20 May 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-20/wha-passes-coronavirus-investigation-australia-what-cost/12265896 Joint statement on Hong Kong national security legislation, 23 May 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/joint-statement-hong-kong-national-security-legislation Joint statement on Hong Kong, 28 May 2020: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/joint-statement-hong-kong The Little Red Podcast (Facebook page): https://www.facebook.com/LittleRedPodcast/ David Crowe, “Foreign deals set to face tougher security checks”, Sydney Morning Herald, 4 June 2020: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-deals-set-to-face-tougher-security-checks-20200604-p54zki.html Max Koslowski, “Almost 400 anti-China attacks since pandemic began”, Sydney Morning Herald, 7 June 2020: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/almost-400-anti-china-attacks-since-pandemic-began-20200607-p550a8.html Simon Benson, “Five Eyes focus on economic pact”, The Australian, 8 June 2020: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/five-eyes-expanded-to-focus-on-economic-pact/news-story/31ee5e37f1942a8188535d4f7585daa1 National Security Podcast, Foreign Investment and national securit

Allan and Darren welcome Harinder Sidhu to the podcast to discuss India and Australia-India relations. A Deputy Secretary in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Harinder recently returned from a posting as the Australian High Commissioner in New Delhi. Before she went to India, Harinder headed the multilateral division of DFAT while Australia was on the UN Security Council. Prior to that, she spent time in the Department of Climate Change, the Office of National Assessments, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. She’s also previously had postings in Damascus and Moscow. The conversation begins with India itself. What is the spectrum of views inside India regarding the role it should be playing in the world? How much does India’s domestic political system—both its strengths and continuing challenges—influence its behaviour on the international stage? What is India’s "pitch" for international leadership, and what would be the characteristics of an Indian "model" of international order? And does Covid-19 change the answers to these questions? Turning to Australia’s relationship with India, while successive Australian governments have tended to “discover” India only for the relationship to recede, why might the foundations for a stronger and more durable partnership now be in place? What’s the Indian view of the bilateral relationship? What role does the Indian diaspora in Australia play, and what about Australians who are in India? Finally, what was Harinder’s own experience as High Commissioner as a woman of Indian heritage? And Darren finishes with a very on-brand question for the podcast, asking for Harinder's views on the need to integrate economics and security into policymaking. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Harinder Sidhu, “Celebrating the ties that bind”, Speech at Hawker Ball, the opening of the Asia Society Australia Centre, Melbourne, 3 October 2019: https://asiasociety.org/australia/celebrating-ties-bind University of Sydney, “Meet Australia’s High Commissioner to India”, 20 November 2019: https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2019/11/20/meet-australias-high-commissioner-to-india.html Australian PM Scott Morrison’s Message for Raisina Dialogue 2020, 14 January 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM023sUFvwg

Allan and Darren welcome Dr Heather Smith PSM to the podcast. Until January 2020, Heather was Secretary of the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, which followed serving as Secretary of the Department of Communications and the Arts. Before that she was a Deputy Secretary in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (including serving as G20 Sherpa in 2014 when Australia held the G20 Presidency) and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, as well as a Deputy Director General in the Office of National Assessments. She has also held senior jobs in Treasury, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Australian National University. The interview begins with the G20, which has not performed well during the Covid-19 crisis. Is it salvageable, and what concrete things should Australia be advocating for? What else can Australia do to help our regional partners during this unprecedented crisis? Darren shifts the conversation to industrial policy—the topic of Heather’s economics PhD thesis! How does she understand advocacy across the West for a more active state, and how is Australia positioned? Notwithstanding the vulnerabilities exposed by Covid-19, is resilience in our supply chains even realistic? And how does she view the expanding concept of national security, especially as it applies to critical technologies? The conversation turns to the rise of populism—to what extent is economic grievance the major driver, and does Covid-19 offer a chance to “reset” public policy in its aftermath? Allan then asks Heather, who holds a PhD in economics, what she as an economist is most likely to get wrong when observing and analysing the world? And as a non-economist, what is the thing she’s most likely to miss? Finally, Heather, Allan and Darren all take turns in answering the question: what do you expect to be different in Australia’s world after Covid-19? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Heather Smith, “Doing policy differently”, Keynote Address, Institute of Public Administration Australia, 22 March 2018: https://vs286790.blob.core.windows.net/docs/Transcript_Doing%20Policy%20Differently_Dr%20Heather%20Smith_22%20March%202018.pdf Heather Smith and Allan Gyngell, “Technology will unite the post-virus world order”, Australian Financial Review, 23 April 2020: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/technology-will-unite-the-post-virus-world-order-20200422-p54m4v

This week Allan and Darren devote the entire episode to a wild and very tense few weeks in the bilateral relationship between Australia and China. These events kicked off with Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s call for an inquiry into China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, and snowballed from there, in particular with an interview conducted by China’s ambassador to Australia, duelling press releases from the Chinese embassy and DFAT, and interventions from mining magnate Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest.   As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links ABC article covering FM Payne’s call for an inquiry: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/payne-calls-for-inquiry-china-handling-of-coronavirus-covid-19/12162968 SBS report on PM Morrison’s first comments: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-and-china-clash-over-independent-inquiry-into-coronavirus-pandemic Sydney Morning Herald report on PM Morrison talking to UN, Germany, France: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-pushes-for-global-review-into-handling-of-covid-19-20200421-p54lub.html Peter Hartcher column in the Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-week-australia-stood-up-to-china-and-global-giants-20200424-p54n3c.html Embassy of PRC in Australia, transcript of Ambassador Cheng’s interview with AFR: http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1773741.htm Report on the response from Marise Payne and Penny Wong: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-is-needed-is-global-cooperation-marise-payne-slaps-down-beijing-s-boycott-threat-20200427-p54njj.html   Darren’s analysis (co-authored with Victor Ferguson) on the ABC website covering the ambassador’s interview: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-29/china-boycott-diplomacy--coronavirus-comes-more-government/12194482   Trade Minister Simon Birmingham’s ABC interview transcript: https://www.trademinister.gov.au/minister/simon-birmingham/transcript/interview-abc-radio-canberra-am-sabra-lane-2 Embassy of PRC in Australia, response to media question regarding the Adamson phone call: http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1774089.htm   DFAT response: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/media-release/dfat-statement-regarding-comments-embassy-peoples-republic-china   Article covering Kerry Stokes: https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/kerry-stokes-calls-for-china-backdown-urges-canberra-to-respect-wet-markets-20200430-p54ohj.html Albert Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (1945): https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520301337/national-power-and-the-structure-of-foreign-trade Money Heist (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/title/80192098 Dustin O’Halloran (composer of “Arrival”), Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_O%27Halloran Ramin Djawadi (composer of “Light of the Seven”), Podcast interview on Song Exploder: http://songexploder.net/ramin-djawadi

Covid-19 remains central to the news this week. Allan and Darren begin with President Trump’s decision to freeze U.S. funding to the World Health Organization, and assess the validity his criticisms. Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne has proposed an inquiry, but is there even an alternative? And does this case tell us anything new about great power rivalry and the future of the international order? Darren is curious to explore the concept of “mask diplomacy”, a term used to describe deliveries of equipment and supplies by China to other countries stricken by the coronavirus. How should we think about this form of statecraft, and how novel is it, really? In the final segment, Darren asks Allan to explain what’s behind a change in DFAT’s organisation chart, with many new senior positions being created as part of the whole-of-government response to Covid-19. Allan describes some of the many things the department is doing, and also weighs in on a (small) controversy regarding the recall of Australia’s ambassador to Indonesia. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Jeff Mason and Steve Holland, “Trump halts World Health Organization funding amid coronavirus pandemic”, Reuters, 15 April: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-who/trump-halts-world-health-organization-funding-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKCN21W34Y Brett Worthington, “Marise Payne calls for global inquiry into China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak”, ABC News, 19 April: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/payne-calls-for-inquiry-china-handling-of-coronavirus-covid-19/12162968 Geoff Raby, “Why the bell must toll for WHO chief Tedros”, Australian Financial Review, 17 April: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-the-bell-must-toll-for-who-chief-tedros-20200417-p54kpe Alexander Downer, “China must be held to account for unleashing a global catastrophe”, Australian Financial Review, 19 April: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/china-must-be-held-to-account-for-unleashing-a-global-catastrophe-20200419-p54l3o Allan Gyngell, “Australia in a post-Covid-19 world”, East Asia Forum, 29 March: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/03/29/australia-in-a-post-covid-19-world/ Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, “How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations”, Journal of Political Economy 114(5) (2006), pp. 905-930: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/kuziemko/files/kuziemko_werker.pdf Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Organisation Chart, April 2020: https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/dfat-org-chart-19-april.pdf Amanda Hodge, “Coronavirus: Canberra ‘condescending’ over withdrawal of ambassador to Indonesia”, The Australian, 16 April: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/canberra-condescending-over-withdrawal-of-ambassador-to-indonesia/news-story/282edc6f297cead2c78197fdfa07cf93 Peter Edwards, “Law, Politics and Intelligence: A life of Robert Hope”, NewSouth: https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/biography-robert-marsden-hope-qc/  Knives Out (film): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8946378/

This week Allan and Darren try to step back from Covid-19, and have a long-planned conversation about the United States: its domestic politics, its role in the world, and the state of the alliance relationship with Australia. Allan begins by asking Darren for his assessment of what’s happening inside the US right now, amid an upcoming presidential election, the challenge of the coronavirus, and of course the non-stop news cycle that is the Trump presidency. How much will Covid-19 affect the presidential campaign? The two discuss the bipartisan hardening of attitudes towards China, the near-complete absence of US leadership during the Covid-19 crisis, and how much of the damage to Washington’s global reputation might be washed away if Trump loses in November. Turning to the alliance, Allan draws upon his recent book—Fear of Abandonment—to provide background and context to the bilateral relationship from Australia’s perspective. Darren wonders whether the alliance matters much as a formal treaty, or whether the shared interests and values of the two nations are sufficient both to sustain cooperation, and draw them together in a crisis. Next, Allan analyses Lowy poll data showing that Australians trust the United States less, but still seem to agree that we need the alliance. Looking ahead, what will the likely frictions be between Canberra and Washington, and should Australia constantly be looking to do “more” to enhance the relationship? Thinking about the practice of Australian foreign policy, is managing the alliance relationship different to managing relations with China? And finally, do we know enough now to make an assessment of the future capability and resolve of the United States to be active in our region, as Hugh White’s recent book argues we must? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Allan Gyngell, Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment Joe Biden, “Why America must lead again: Rescuing U.S. foreign policy after Trump”, Foreign Affairs, January 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again Natasha Kassam, Lowy Institute Poll 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/lowy-institute-poll-2019  Charles Edel and John Lee, “The future of the US-Australia alliance in an era of great power competition”, United States Studies Centre, 13 June 2019: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-future-of-the-us-australia-alliance-in-an-era-of-great-power-competition Michael Green and Andrew Shearer, “Countering China’s militarization of the Indo-Pacific”, War on the Rocks, 23 April 2018: https://warontherocks.com/2018/04/countering-chinas-militarization-of-the-indo-pacific/ Hugh White, How to defend Australia: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/how-defend-australia Ezra Klein Show, Interview with Evan Osnos: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/31/21200192/coronavirus-china-donald-trump-the-ezra-klein-show Peter Hessler “The Peace Corps Breaks Ties with China’, The New Yorker, 9 March 2020: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/16/the-peace-corps-breaks-ties-with-china Peter Hessler, River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze: https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060855024/river-town/ Flow State (newsletter): https://flowstate.substack.com/

Covid-19 will have a profound long-term impact on the world, both within countries and internationally. In this episode, Allan and Darren make some guesses as to how the world will look different after this crisis has passed, and how Australia can position itself accordingly. They begin with the global balance of power: will China emerge as the big “winner”, or could the US rehabilitate its leadership credentials (in particular if Joe Biden wins the presidency in November)? Prime Minister Scott Morrison said in parliament this week that Australia would prove that liberal democracies can cope with a challenge liked Covid-19. Is there a battle of “narratives” between democratic and authoritarian systems? With borders closing and economies slowing dramatically, advocates of sovereignty must be pleased—how will the crisis feed into the trend towards a greater reassertion of sovereignty, the decoupling phenomenon, and the greater willingness of governments to intervene in markets? And what about the rules-based order which, aged in its mid-70s and with underlying health conditions, is in a high risk category to fall victim to the coronavirus? Finally, Allan offers some thoughts about how the practice of diplomacy might change, and both he and Darren consider how the Australian government ought to be planning for a post Covid-19 world.  As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank new AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing, XC Chong and Isabel Hancock for research support and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  Relevant links Scott Morrison, Ministerial Statement, 23 March 2020: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/ministerial-statement-australian-parliament-house-act Hilary Mantel, The Mirror and the Light: https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780007480999/the-mirror-and-the-light/

Allan and Darren commence with an update on the novel coronavirus, now called Covid-19. How should we evaluate China’s handling of the outbreak? Given the struggles of some democratic systems—the United States in particular—is an authoritarian approach best for public health crises? Allan attended a recent speech by Labor parliamentarian Tim Watts on the health of Australia's democracy, and Watts' argument resonates here. Staying in Australia, the Morrison government has been on the front foot regarding Covid-19, getting out ahead of the World Health Organisation in declaring a pandemic—have we lost trust in the WHO, and what does the global response tell us about international cooperation more generally?  The conversation turns to ASIO, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, and the first annual threat assessment delivered by Director-General Mike Burgess. How does Allan feel about ASIO “coming out of the shadows” like this and what are some of the drawbacks of establishing an annual statement? Is this a positive thing for Australia’s democracy? Should DFAT be looking to do something similar? Finally, Prime Minister Morrison recently hosted the Indonesian President Joko Widodo and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern for separate bilateral visits. Allan offers his thoughts on the state of both bilateral relationships while Darren asks: are Australia and Indonesia in a bit of a holding pattern right now, and does Allan have any advice for PM Ardern to get traction on the deportation issue, currently a major source of tension?    As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank outgoing AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for her help with research and audio editing, and XC Chong for research, and also welcome incoming AIIA intern Maddy Gordon. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  Relevant links Elizabeth Pisani, “The unpalatable lesson of coronavirus: dictatorships can be effective”, Prospect Magazine, 28 February 2020: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-unpalatable-lesson-of-coronavirus-dictatorships-can-be-effective-china-world-health-organisation Australian Government, Biosecurity Act 2015: https://www.legislation.gov.au/Series/C2015A00061 Peter Hartcher, “How Australia defied global health authority on coronavirus”, Sydney Morning Herald, 28 February 2020: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-australia-defied-global-health-authority-on-coronavirus-20200228-p545hr.html Tim Watts, “Democracy and the authoritarian challenge”, Lowy Lecture Series, National Press Club, Canberra, 27 February 2020: https://www.timwatts.net.au/news/transcripts/lowy-lecture-series-democracy-and-the-authoritarian-challenge/ Lee Hsien Loong, “on the COVID-19 situation in Singapore”, 8 February 2020: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-on-the-Novel-Coronavirus-nCoV-Situation-in-Singapore-on-8-February-2020 Mike Burgess, “Director-General’s Annual Threat Assessment”, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, 24 February 2020: https://www.asio.gov.au/director-generals-annual-threat-assessment.html “Address by His Excellency Mr Joko Widodo, President of the Republic of Indonesia”, 9 February 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YnetrtC73M ABC News, “Tensions rise between Morrison and Ardern over deportation of criminals”, 28 February 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGc2s9YCmGA Andy Greenburg , Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin’s Most Dangerous Hacker: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/597684/sandworm-by-andy-greenberg/9780385544405 Rory Medcalf, Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won’t Map the Future: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/contest-indo-pacific David Brooks, “The nuclear family was a mistake”, The Atlantic, March 2020: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archiv

This week Allan and Darren interview Richard Maude, who needs no introduction to regular observers of Australian foreign policy. Until recently, Richard was Deputy Secretary, Indo-Pacific Group, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Prior to that, he headed the task force responsible for drafting the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper. From 2013-2016, Richard was Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, and before that he was senior adviser on foreign policy and national security to Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Richard has now taken on a new position at the Asia Society Policy Institute as the inaugural Executive Director, Policy, and Senior Fellow. Allan commences the discussion by asking Richard how he thinks about the “Indo-Pacific” and to describe Australia’s Indo-Pacific strategy. How has the world changed since Richard started working on the Australian Foreign Policy White Paper back in 2016? Darren describes his own shock at the events of 2016, and asks Richard whether he has ever been personally surprised by any events in international affairs which, in turn, caused him to update his own “model” of the world. The conversation then returns to a familiar theme of recent episodes of the podcast, sovereignty, and the logic of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s emphasis on the concept in developing his government’s foreign policy. Allan contrasts the challenges to the rules-based order that shaped the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper—in particular relating to the Law of the Sea—with those that have come since, especially emanating from Australia’s allies. Is there still an order to defend and how does a country like Australia do it? And in doing so, will Australia need to be willing to accept trade-offs, such as deemphasising liberalism and democracy, in order to get cooperation on global challenges like climate change, war, or trade? The conversation moves to China, with Darren asking Richard the extent to which China’s domestic politics factors into his model of China’s behaviour on the world stage, and what major questions remain in his mind regarding China over the coming years. Closer to home, Darren asks whether Richard accepts the premise of two warring “tribes” in the Canberra policymaking community regarding China, and Richard’s answer speaks more broadly to the issue of how to integrate security and economic perspectives into policymaking. In the final part of the podcast, Allan asks the perennial question of why those who believe that foreign policy is a critical element of Australian statecraft have been unable to convince successive governments to invest in it, while Darren wonders how foreign policy successes can be measured. The podcast concludes with Richard describing his new role with the Asia Society Policy Institute, and reflections on how think tanks and academics can most effectively attract the attention and shape the views of ministers and policy advisers in Canberra. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj  We thank AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing, Rory Stenning for composing our theme music and Angus Blackman for technical support in studio. Relevant links Richard Maude’s biography via the Asia Society Policy Institute: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude  Richard Maude, “Charting a Course for Australia in a Changing Asia”, Asia Society Policy Institute, 13 February 2020: https://asiasociety.org/australia/charting-course-australia-changing-asia John Kehoe, “The division in Canberra over China”, Australian Financial Review, 2 December 2019: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/china-power-struggle-in-canberra-20191128-p53f27

Allan and Darren begin this episode with Australia’s response to the novel coronavirus, including the government’s efforts to evacuate Australians from Wuhan, the decision not to charge evacuees, and the decision to the bar entry into Australia of foreigners who have been in or travelled through China. Darren then wonders whether the variation across countries in the response to the virus—notably the hostility of Cambodia’s Prime Minister to wearing masks—is connected to China’s influence. Next up is the UK’s decision to allow Huawei to participate in the country’s 5G network. Given Australia came to the opposite position, Allan grapples with the fact that he knows and trusts the judgments of individuals involved with both decisions. Darren asks whether there is much precedent for the inventions by four Australian MPs into the UK debate, or the recent piece by former Australian Signals Directorate senior official Simeon Gilding expressing disappointment with the UK’s decision. What’s the path forward now for Australia? Allan and Darren do not entirely agree. The discussion moves to trade. Now that the Trump administration has neutered the World Trade Organisation’s appellate body by blocking the appointment of new judges, what’s next for the WTO? One interesting possibility is the creation of parallel appellate structures that essentially replicate the WTO model and allow willing countries (including Australia) to prop up the WTO system while a more permanent set of reforms can (hopefully) be negotiated. Finally, Darren asks Allan about bilateral free trade agreements between Australia and both the UK and EU that are on the agenda for 2020. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj Thanks to AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  Relevant links Jane Norman, “Coronavirus evacuees avoid $1,000 charge for flight from China after Federal Government backs down”, ABC News, 2 February 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-02/government-blames-dfat-for-coronavirus-charge-mix-up/11921846 Hannah Beach, “Quieter response to coronavirus in countries where China holds sway”. New York Times, 2 February 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-philippines-thailand.html Latika Bourke, “Four Australian MPs urge Britain to ban Huawei”, Sydney Morning Herald, 24 January 2020: https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/four-australian-mps-urge-britain-to-ban-huawei-20200124-p53u9x.html Simeon Gilding, “5G choices: a pivotal moment in world affairs”, ASPI Strategist, 28 January: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/5g-choices-a-pivotal-moment-in-world-affairs/ Andrew Tillett and Hans van Leeuwen, “Australian warning over Trump’s WTO bear hug”, Australian Financial Review, 24 January 2020: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australian-warning-over-trump-s-wto-bear-hug-20200123-p53u4h Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes, The light that failed: A reckoning, https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/308/308740/the-light-that-failed/9780241345702.html Scholar’s Stage, “Public intellectuals have short shelf lives—But why?”, 29 January 2020: https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/01/why-public-intellectuals-have-short.html Tyler Cowen, “How public intellectuals can extend their shelf lives”, 6 February 2020: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/how-public-intellectuals-can-extend-their-shelf-lives.html Kristen Roupenian, “Cat person”, The New Yorker, 4 December 2017: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/11/cat-person

Allan and Darren try something different this episode, with Allan taking the lead in asking Darren about his experience attending the Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship international affairs conference, held in New Delhi from 14-16 January 2020, and organised the Observer Research Foundation. The conversation begins with an introduction to Raisina and comparisons with the Shangri-La Dialogue. Allan then asks Darren what his major takeaways were, starting with the current strategic debate in India. The conversation then moves to the often-fraught Sino-Indian relationship, before turning to the recent controversies inside India regarding the status of Muslims—how were these handled at the Dialogue?  From an Australian perspective, Prime Minister Scott Morrison was scheduled to give the keynote address, but had to cancel to remain in Australia to oversee the bushfire response. Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Marise Payne led a sizeable Australian contingent, and Darren offers some impressions regarding how Australian diplomats manage a foreign minister’s visit. Darren finishes with some personal reflections on the event and whether it changed his thinking. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj Thanks to AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Observer Research Foundation, Raisina Dialogue homepage: https://www.orfonline.org/raisina-dialogue/ Videos of Raisina Dialogue 2020 Panels: Inaugural panel (including Stephen Harper): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZjUoIwDeTg Interview with Dr S. Jaishankar, Indian External Affairs Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KufSx9RW-q0 Panel “Hacking Democracy: Defending Pluralism in the Digital Age” (including Stephen Harper and Marietje Schaake): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqtgZwwsGHY  Panel “Plural Waters: Strengthening Democracy in the Indo-Pacific” (including Ram Madhav, BJP General Secretary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byINgxdHSYc Final panel “Coalitions and Consensus: In Defense of Values that Matter” (including Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gotKrQTVKQ4     Interview with Javad Zarif, Iranian Foreign Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIqnQHvrXY PM Scott Morrison’s Message for Raisina Dialogue 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM023sUFvwg Darren Lim, “Scott Morrison wasn’t at the Raisina Dialogue, but his ideas were”, Lowy Interpreter, 29 January 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/scott-morrison-wasn-t-raisina-dialogue-his-ideas-were

In an episode recorded in the second week of December 2019, Allan and Darren welcome Gordon de Brouwer PSM onto the podcast. Gordon has a distinguished public service career in the fields of economics, the environment, energy and international institution building. From 2013-2017 Gordon was Secretary of the Department of Environment and Energy. Prior to that he had been Associate Secretary in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, including as Australia’s G20 Sherpa at the time the G20 was organising its response to the Global Financial Crisis. Trained as an economist, Gordon has also been a Professor at the ANU and worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Department of Treasury. The episode begins with Gordon’s assessment of the world being a “particularly messy place”, where he makes the observation that many of the countries that were long considered the bulwark of the international economic system are aggressively attacking it, with a nationalist “winner takes all” mindset. Allan asks whether this means an effective global response would be unlikely if global economic turmoil again strikes, and Gordon explains how much of the problem stems from the (unforeseen) loss of faith in institutions that resulted from the GFC and its aftermath. The conversation then turns to integrating very different conceptual perspectives into effective policymaking. Gordon explains that “social harmony” or “social wellbeing” is a third dimension that must be integrated along with economics and security, citing how social dislocation can be caused in the way national security questions are discussed, and how more generally a full range of interests and perspectives must be integrated into national security policymaking. By way of example, Gordon uses China’s Belt and Road Initiative to show how integration of a market-based perspective can reduce some of the security vulnerabilities that might arise. What kind of policymaking arrangements in Australia might help resolve conflicting perspectives? Gordon outlines his proposal for an integrated strategy office in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. Allan asks Gordon about his experience on the panel of the recent Public Service Review (chaired by David Thodey), and the conversation finishes on the topic of climate change, in which Gordon offers his reflections on how different Australian governments have tried to address the issue, and how the public service must navigate the politics of the policy issues upon which it is asked to provide advice. Why has Australia’s political system not yet been able to develop an effective response? Note that the interview took place before the worst of Australia’s bushfires had occurred. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We want to thank AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing, XC Chong and James Hayne for research support, Rory Stenning for composing our theme music and Julia Ahrens for technical support in studio.  Relevant links Gordon de Brouwer’s biography (via The Nature Conservancy website): https://www.natureaustralia.org.au/about-us/who-we-are/our-people/gordon-de-brouwer--/ Gordon de Brouwer, “Bringing Security and Economics Together in the National Interest”, speech to Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Tokyo, 21 November 2019 : https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/events/19112101/pdf/s-1_brouwer_paper.pdf

In their first episode recorded in the new year, Allan and Darren begin with the news. First, they take an international perspective on the catastrophic Australian bushfires, which have become a truly global disaster. How will the bushfires affect Australia’s image and diplomacy abroad, and what about the government’s policy agenda on climate change? Could domestic politics swamp other aspects of Australia’s international agenda? Are there any silver linings from the generosity being shown by the international community? The conversation then turns to the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by the Trump administration and how Australia may be affected. Is there anything Australia can contribute to deescalating this crisis? Continuing a practice begun last year, the second half of the podcast looks back at 2019. Allan and Darren each nominate their word of the year: for Allan it’s “sovereignty”, and for Darren it’s “decoupling”. Next, each identifies a notable trend from the past year. For Allan: the decline in the authority of international institutions; for Darren: emerging domestic political cleavages that are having international impacts. Finally, the conversation looks ahead to 2020, in particular how Canberra’s relationship with Beijing might evolve, and what's at stake in the upcoming US presidential election. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj Thanks to AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Editorial Board, “Australia, the hapless country”, East Asia Forum, 6 January 2020: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/01/06/australia-the-hapless-country/ The Lawfare Podcast Special Edition, “Law and the Soleimani Strike”, 6 January 2020: https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-special-edition-law-and-soleimani-strike Pod Save the World, “Trump goes to war with Iran”, 3 January 2020: https://crooked.com/podcast/trump-goes-to-war-with-iran/ Salman Ahmed, et al, “U.S. Foreign Policy for the Middle Class: Perspectives From Ohio”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 December 2018: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/12/10/u.s.-foreign-policy-for-middle-class-perspectives-from-ohio-pub-77779 Salman Ahmed, et al, “U.S. Foreign Policy for the Middle Class: Perspectives From Colorado”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 5 November 2019: https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/11/05/u.s.-foreign-policy-for-middle-class-perspectives-from-colorado-pub-80112 Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century by George Packer (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/40594328-our-man The Mandalorian, Disney + : https://disneyplusoriginals.disney.com/show/the-mandalorian

In Part 2 of our exclusive interview with Duncan Lewis AO, DSC, CSC, the recently retired head of ASIO, the conversation turns to the more recent challenge of foreign interference. Duncan has been quoted recently as describing foreign interference as an “existential threat to the nation”, and so Allan begins by asking Duncan to explain how he thinks about foreign interference in Australian politics, and how he would describe its impact. Darren looks to draw some contrasts between how Australia manages the threat of terrorism and how it responds to foreign interference. What is the first line of defence against foreign interference? What are some of the dangers of overreacting to the threat? The conversation then turns to the new national security and foreign interference laws passed in 2018. Are these laws fit for purpose? What is the balance between the government’s duty to protect, and the individual's right to privacy? What is Duncan’s view of calls for vetting of parliamentary candidates, and is the securitisation of public policy a necessary consequence of dealing with modern threats? The conversation finishes with the structure of national security policymaking in Australia. Who is the “Minister for National Security”, and what principles should govern decision-making? Finally, what in Duncan’s view are the most important qualities of political leadership? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We want to thank AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing, XC Chong and James Hayne for research support, Rory Stenning for composing our theme music and also Julia Ahrens for technical support in studio.

In a first for the podcast, we present our first double episode, an exclusive interview with Duncan Lewis AO, DSC, CSC who until recently was Australia’s Director General of Security, leading ASIO, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation. In this first part, Allan and Darren discuss Duncan’s remarkable career, which as Allan notes is unique in terms of his experience in senior national security positions. Much of Duncan’s career has been focused on the challenge of terrorism, and this is the main policy focus of Part 1 of this interview. Duncan joined the Australian army in 1975, rising to become a Major General and head of Special Operations Command, before making the transition to a civilian role in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, where he quickly became a Deputy Secretary focusing on national security issues, before Prime Minister Kevin Rudd appointed him as Australia’s first National Security Advisor. From there he become Secretary of the Department of Defence, then Ambassador to the EU, NATO, Belgium and Luxembourg, before returning to Australia in 2014 to run ASIO. Much of the conversation revolves around the unique circumstances of Duncan’s career. He provides his perspective on the 9/11 attacks and the (still ongoing) war in Afghanistan, his transition from the military to the Australian Public Service, what it meant to take the top civilian job running the Department of Defence as an ex-military officer, and being present in Europe at the time UK Prime Minister David Cameron called the Brexit referendum. This first part of the interview then concludes specifically on the topic of terrorism, especially through the lens of Duncan’s role leading ASIO, Australia’s domestic intelligence agency, and how the organisation has adapted to the challenge of terrorism on home soil. Duncan also reflects on some of the controversies he’s been caught up in, and how senior officials must navigate politically sensitive issues in an era when facts themselves are seen as partisan. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj  We want to thank AIIA intern Isabel Hancock for research and audio editing, XC Chong and James Hayne for research support, Rory Stenning for composing our theme music and also Julia Ahrens for technical support in studio.  Relevant links Duncan’s Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_Lewis “An address by ASIO Director General Duncan Lewis”, Lowy Institute, 4 September 2019: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/news-and-media/multimedia/audio/address-asio-director-general-duncan-lewis

It is simply impossible to ignore China-related news stories in Australia this week, and so Allan and Darren do their best to grapple with the twin bombshell stories of a Chinese defector and asylum seeker, Wang “William” Liqiang, who claims to have information on the activities of Chinese intelligence, and a (now-deceased) individual, Nick Zhao, who reported to ASIO that he was approached to run for the Australian federal parliament. Along the way, a recent speech by former Prime Minister Paul Keating is brought into the conversation, as well as the denial of visas to two Australian parliamentarians to visit China. The episode finishes with an update on the situation in Hong Kong. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern James Hayne for his help with research and audio editing, and XC Chong also for research assistance and audio editing. As always, we’re grateful to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links 60 Minutes, “Chinese spy spills secrets to expose Communist espionage”, 24 November 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdR-I35Ladk Nick McKenzie, Paul Sakkal and Grace Tobin, “The moment a Chinese spy decided to defect to Australia”, The Age, 23 November 2019: https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-moment-a-chinese-spy-decided-to-defect-to-australia-20191122-p53d0x.html “Chinese embassy says ‘self-proclaimed agent' Wang Liqiang is convicted fraudster”, ABC News, 24 November 2019: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-24/wang-liqiang-convicted-fraudster-says-chinese-embassy-canberra/11733102 Nick McKenzie, Paul Sakkal and Grace Tobin, “China tried to plant its candidate in Federal Parliament, authorities believe”, The Age, 24 November 2019: https://www.theage.com.au/national/china-tried-to-plant-its-candidate-in-federal-parliament-authorities-believe-20191122-p53d9x.html “Statement from the Director-General of Security, Mike Burgess - response to reporting on foreign interference”, 24 November 2019: https://www.asio.gov.au/statement-director-general-security-mike-burgess-response-reporting-foreign-interference.html  Paul Keating, “Speech delivered at the Australian Strategic Forum”, 18 November 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/18/paul-keatings-speech-on-australias-china-policy-full-text Dewey Sim, “Hong Kong protesters’ five demands meant to ‘humiliate’ government, won’t solve city’s issues: Singapore PM”, South China Morning Post, 17 October 2019: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3033279/hong-kong-protesters-five-demands-meant-humiliate-government John Hawley, “Senator Hawley Delivers Floor Speech in Support of Hong Kong”, 23 October 2019: https://www.hawley.senate.gov/senator-hawley-delivers-floor-speech-support-hong-kong Eryk Bagshaw, “Hong Kong's use of emergency law sparks warning from Payne”, Sydney Morning Herald, 6 October 2019: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/authorities-risk-inflaming-a-delicate-situation-in-hong-kong-20191006-p52y3g.html Senator Marise Payne, “Statement on Hong Kong”, 14 November 2019: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-hong-kong Scott Morrison, “Radio interview with Neil Mitchell – 3AW”, 22 November 2019: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/radio-interview-neil-mitchell-3aw-2 Anthony Galloway, “Marise Payne welcomes Hong Kong elections results”, Sydney Morning Herald, 28 Novembet 2019: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/marise-payne-welcomes-hong-kong-elections-results-20191128-p53exv.html Mick Herron, Slough House Series (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/series/101326-slough-house China Neican newsletter: https://neican.substack.com/p/welcome-to-china-neican

Allan and Darren kick off this week’s episode by covering a bad week for the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy at the ASEAN and East Asia Summit meetings in Bangkok. Meanwhile Australia’s Defence Minister Linda Reynolds delivered a constructive speech in Washington DC setting out a vision for precisely what the United States ought to be doing. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement appears set to become a reality, albeit without the participation of India. Staying with India, it is reported that former NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell will become Australia’s next High Commissioner. In a speech in Sydney last week, Foreign Minister Marise Payne raised the plight of the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang while discussing the threats posed by technology to human rights, and Beijing was not pleased; is any criticism of China’s human rights record compatible with a working bilateral relationship? Finally, the two catch up on the news from northern Syria, with Darren asking whether the Trump administration’s withdrawal of troops and abandonment of the Kurds will cause long term problems for America’s credibility. We invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj  We thank AIIA intern James Hayne for his help with research and audio editing, and XC Chong for research assistance. As always, we’re grateful to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Aaron Connelly on the ASEAN Meetings (twitter): https://twitter.com/ConnellyAL/status/1191639856268509185 Linda Reynolds, “Keynote Address, Hudson Institute, Washington DC”, 2 November 2019: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/lreynolds/transcripts/keynote-address-hudson-institute-washington-dc Ben Doherty, “Australia to join major Asia-Pacific trade deal RCEP but India holds out”, The Guardian, 4 November 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/05/australia-to-join-major-asia-pacific-trade-deal-rcep-but-india-holds-out  Joe Aston, “Barry O’Farrell to be Australia’s next ambassador to India”, Australian Financial Review, 3 November 2019: www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/barry-o-farrell-to-be-australia-s-next-ambassador-to-india-20191103-p536yl?btis Marise Payne, “Ensuring security, enabling prosperity”, Speech at the United States Studies Centre, 29 October 2019: https://foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/Pages/2019/mp_sp_191029.aspx “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang's Regular Press Conference on October 30, 2019”: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1712002.shtml Allan Gyngell, “From the bookshelf: ‘Meeting Saddam’s men: looking for Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction’”, ASPI Strategist, 6 November 2019: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/from-the-bookshelf-meeting-saddams-men-looking-for-iraqs-weapons-of-mass-destruction/ Adam Grant and Allison Sweet Grant, “Stop trying to raise successful kids”, The Atlantic, Decemer 2019: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/stop-trying-to-raise-successful-kids/600751/ The Ezra Klein Show, “The loneliness epidemic (Vivek Murthy)”, 10 October 2019: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/vox/the-ezra-klein-show/e/64496902

On this week’s episode, Allan and Darren look to have a broader discussion about China, anchoring the conversation around Allan’s recent article in Australian Foreign Affairs, “History hasn’t ended: How to handle China”. On the larger and longer term questions surrounding the Australia-China relationship, Allan argues that Australia indeed has an effective but under-appreciated way of approaching China, to weigh up interests and values and use those interests and values as stakes in our relationship with the PRC: foreign policy. Attempting to avoid the risk of engaging in what Prime Minister Morrison would term “over-analysis”, Allan and Darren discuss whether China is “different” to other great powers, if commentators are “overexcited” when it comes to China and what, if anything, the Australian government needs to do differently. Recorded on 21 October 2019, Allan and Darren also continue their recent history of disagreements in a discussion about free speech, China and the National Basketball Association. We invite our listeners to email us: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern James Hayne for his help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research assistance, and Martyn Pearce for technical support in studio. As always, we’re grateful to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant Links Allan Gyngell, “History hasn’t ended: How to handle China” in the October 2019 issue of Australian Foreign Affairs: https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/essay/2019/10/china-dependence Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, Jonathan Pryke, “Ocean of debt? Belt and Road and debt diplomacy in the Pacific”, Lowy Institute Analysis, 21 October 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/ocean-debt-belt-and-road-and-debt-diplomacy-pacific Adam Gopnik, “A thousand small sanities”, publisher page: https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/adam-gopnik/a-thousand-small-sanities/9781541699366/ Yesterday (film), IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8079248/

Allan and Darren attempt their first “emergency” episode, recorded on Friday 4 October, the day after Prime Minister Morrison delivered the 2019 Lowy Lecture at the Sydney Town Hall. The conversation is structured around a commentary Allan wrote for the Lowy Interpreter that same day, in which he argues that the speech “marked a clear step away from the sort of Australian foreign policy articulated in the government’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper and towards the worldview of Trumpism and Brexit”. Darren, in contrast, found a lot more than Allan to like in the speech, and explains why he saw evidence of a clear theory of the political causes behind the crisis afflicting the rules-based order. This is probably the most significant disagreement Allan and Darren have had in the history of the podcast, which makes for a lively conversation! We invite our listeners to email us at australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj  We thank AIIA intern James Hayne for his help with research and audio editing and XC Chong for research assistance. As always, we’re grateful to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Scott Morrison, “In our interest”, 2019 Lowy Lecture, Sydney Town Hall, 3 October 2019: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/speech-lowy-lecture-our-interest Allan Gyngell, “Scott Morrison strikes an anxious and inward-looking tone”, Lowy Interpreter, 4 October 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/scott-morrison-lowy-lecture Scott Morrison, Speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 23 September 2019: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/chicago-council-global-affairs Nick Bisley, “‘An ally for all the years to come’: why Australia is not a conflicted US ally”, Australian Journal of International Affairs 67(4) (2013): 403-418: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10357718.2013.803029 Tony Abbott, “Remarks at G20 Leaders’ Retreat”, Brisbane, 15 November 2014: https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-23959

In this special episode, Allan and Darren interview two of Australia’s currently serving ambassadors: Rod Brazier, High Commissioner to Solomon Islands, and Sara Moriarty, High Commissioner to Samoa. As Allan notes in his welcome, the podcast to date has not focused as much on “the role of the overseas network of Australian diplomatic posts, which provide the essential diplomatic transmission belt between Canberra and the world; articulating and advocating for Australian views and interests on the one hand, and interpreting and analysing the overseas country and its leadership for Canberra on the other”. In a conversation recorded on 11 September 2019, Rod and Sara offer fascinating insight into the countries to which they are accredited, the strategic landscape in the region, and their roles as Heads of Mission in representing Australia. How do these countries see the world, and their place in it? How does Prime Minister Morrison’s concept of “family” diplomacy translate into diplomatic practice? Other topics covered include China growing presence, climate change, the recently commenced Pacific Labour Scheme, and digital diplomacy. We invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj We thank AIIA intern James Hayne for his help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research assistance, and Martyn Pearce for technical support. As always, we’re grateful to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Roderick Brazier’s biography: https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/our-people/homs/Pages/high-commissioner-to-solomon-islands.aspx Sara Moriarty’s biography: https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/our-people/homs/Pages/high-commissioner-to-samoa.aspx