The Red Line

As economic sanctions continue to tighten their grip on Russia, the nation is forced to seek assistance from whoever it can, turning to China not out of mutual interest but as a necessity. Yet, this support comes at a steep price, heightening concerns in Moscow that it's inadvertently solidifying a new, skewed power dynamic. As China capitalizes on Russia's vulnerabilities, one has to wonder if this is merely business or if there's a deeper play to settle historical grievances. Can Russia untangle itself from this precarious alliance? What are the obstacles in broadening their so-called "no-limits" friendship, and what implications will these have on future Sino-Russian energy deals? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Keir Giles (Chatham House) - Gavin Wilde (CEIP) - Temur Umarov (CEIP) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:07 PART 2 - 23:47 PART 3 - 38:47 Outro - 58:10 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As President Prabowo Subianto prepares to enter the presidency, the Indonesian military stands at a crucial juncture, navigating both traditional and emerging defence challenges. With Prabowo's extensive military background and his previous five years at the helm of the armed forces, this term is particularly poised to potentially reshape strategies around procurement, international agreements, and even the core tenets of the Indonesian military itself. This week, we delve into the evolving dynamics within the Indonesian military as it grapples with modernisation and regional security pressures, and examine the potential shifts and tough decisions likely to fall onto his desk during the next five years. So why is this term likely the most important for the military? What do Prabowo's purchases and policy shifts tell us about his future policies, and will Indonesia finally take its place as a significant military power within Southeast Asia? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - John Blaxland (ANU)  - Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research)  - Collin Koh (RSIS) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:03 PART 2 - 18:47 PART 3 - 44:05 Outro - 1:03:10 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/dis... For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tensions are on the rise between San Marino and Italy, revealing a potential crisis on the Italian Peninsula that many analysts are missing. This situation, seemingly minor, hints at deep-seated unrest that could destabilize the region. We delve into the nuances of this brewing conflict, urging a reevaluation of its possible impact on European stability. Through expert insights, we aim to uncover the undercurrents of this overlooked crisis, highlighting the urgency of recognizing and preparing for the ramifications of this unfolding discord. On the panel this week: - James Ker-Lindsay (LSE) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 01:30 Outro - 14:37 RELEASED: APRIL 1st 2024. Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Delving into the shadowy realm of the small arms trade, we unravel a web of clandestine dealings and backroom deals that span the entire globe, arming insurgents, equipping terrorists, and bolstering criminal networks, thus creating some of the world's most volatile regions. As these weapons cross borders, both through legal and illegal means, their paths become increasingly complicated, yet the underlying fundamentals beneath the trade remain stubbornly rigid. In this deep dive, we seek to unpack the trends that drive the industry, identify which markets are currently hotbeds of small arms sales, and explore the nuanced dynamics that completely change the procurement patterns of cartels or regional insurgency groups. We unpack a hypothetical scenario of a theoretical insurgency group to demonstrate the unexpected challenges faced by these groups, with a panel of industry experts: On the panel this week: - Nicholas Marsh (PRIO) - Franz J. Marty (Swiss Institute for Global Affairs) - Mark Bromley (SIPRI) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:25 PART 2 - 24:47 PART 3 - 44:32 Outro - 1:00:34 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Haiti grapples with an unprecedented crisis, the spectre of state collapse under the weight of rampant gang violence has cast a long shadow over its future. The Caribbean nation, once a beacon of freedom and resistance, now finds itself mired in a power struggle that pits armed gangs against each other in a bid for dominance of the nation, leaving civilians caught in the crossfire. Amid this chaos, the international community watches with bated breath as plans for an intervention loom on the horizon, sparking debates on sovereignty, the efficacy of foreign assistance, and the potential for lasting peace. Yet, the success of such an intervention hinges on a myriad of factors, including the willingness of local actors to cooperate and the ability of external forces to navigate the complex socio-political terrain of Haiti. With the stakes higher than ever, the question remains: Can the proposed intervention quell the violence and restore stability to this beleaguered nation, or will the chaos simply continue? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Marlene L. Daut (Yale Uni.) - Jess DiPierro Obert (Investigative Journalist) - Evan Ellis (US Army War College) - Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:47 PART 2 - 20:37 PART 3 - 35:52 PART 4 - 52:17 Outro - 1:10:56 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at:  https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the world stands on the brink of a new era in nuclear warfare, attention now shifts to the United States' ambitious modernisation programs and the burgeoning arms race in nuclear weapons development. This surge in advancement raises pivotal questions about the future of global security, the balance of power, and the implications of cutting-edge atomic technologies. Yet, these moves also ignites an international arms race, with nations scrambling to not only match but surpass each other's nuclear capabilities. Amid this whirlwind of technological escalation and strategic repositioning, the essential question arises: How will the United States navigate this new nuclear landscape, balance the thin line between deterrence and aggression, and what implications will this arms race have for global peace? To dissect these complex issues, we ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Andrew Futter (Uni of Leicester) - William Alberque (IISS) - Donald N. Jensen (USIP) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:30 PART 2 - 26:59 PART 3 - 49:35 Outro - 1:01:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Europe is banking on Poland to valiantly secure its Eastern frontier, recognising its pivotal role along the CSTO's Western border and Poland's steadfast backing of Ukraine. However, a deeper examination reveals tensions between Warsaw and Brussels over everything from legal standards to concerns about recent large-scale procurements, raising questions about Poland's integration within the EU framework. With Poland's economic position and its role in European defence under the microscope, a critical question emerges: Can Poland effectively balance its commitment to regional security with its EU obligations, and what impact will its disputes with the EU have on its political future within the bloc? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group) - Michał Baranowski (GMF) - Edward Hunter Christie (FIIA) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:20 PART 2 - 22:07 PART 3 - 37:06 Outro - 1:04:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Businesses considering the great decoupling from China face the dilemma of finding a new manufacturing hub, with India emerging as a popular choice due to its large workforce, affordable labour, and investor-friendly leadership. However, a closer examination reveals complexities in India's economy, raising questions about its readiness to replace China as the world's factory and its ability to navigate challenges still hampering India's growth. Can India replace China in the global supply chain, we ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Velina Tchakarova (FACE) - Ashoka Mody (Princeton) - Arjun Ramani (The Economist) - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:39 PART 2 - 10:31 PART 3 - 38:44 PART 4 - 1:00:55 Outro - 1:17:40 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russia's naval forces, structured around six distinct fleets, are navigating turbulent waters in the current geopolitical climate. While all six of these fleets have seen modest improvements, especially in their submarine capabilities, the conflict in Ukraine is now stretching resources thin, with senior figures from within the Navy warning that the Army's problem today, is going to be the Navy's problem tomorrow. This looming situation poses critical questions, like how will Russia's navy will adapt to these emerging challenges, and what programs are likely to face the chopping block when times get tough? So to help us answer those questions, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Nick Childs (IISS) - Mark Galeotti (RUSI) - H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:44 PART 2 - 27:40 PART 3 - 50:16 Outro - 1:10:33 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sudan is entangled in a rapidly escalating civil war, marked by widespread protests, violent clashes, and an alarming surge in refugees fleeing the turmoil. Amidst this chaos, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) swift advances are now intensifying fears of a potential state collapse, one that would likely plunge the region into chaos. With a fragmented government and military embroiled in enforcing their contentious autocratic rule, Sudan's path to peace appears increasingly precarious. So why are more and more outside actors getting involved here? What happens if the state does collapse, and who is supplying these forces with the means to wage this war? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Will Brown (CSIS) - Joe Siegle (ACSS) - Will Carter (Norwegian Refugee Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 07:03 PART 2 - 29:20 PART 3 - 49:16 Outro - 1:02:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Argentina's incoming president, Milei, was queried about reclaiming the Falkland Islands for Argentina, following the path of his predecessors by vowing to seek their reclamation. These claims, coupled with intense media scrutiny, have fueled increasing speculation about a potential second invasion of the Falkland Islands. But are these speculations well-founded, or merely ongoing rhetoric? Will these threats intensify into a more significant conflict between Argentina and the UK, and if so, how might such a conflict unfold? We present these questions to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Tim Fish (Shepherd Land Systems) - Wilder Alejandro Sanchez (Second Floor Strategies) - Kevin Fleming (Kings College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:00 PART 2 - 22:32 PART 3 - 33:15 Outro - 45:09 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As unrest simmers throughout the Middle East, echoes of the initial Arab Spring resonate amid similar economic triggers, fueling speculation about a potential second wave. Many are beginning to ask: Is a second Arab Spring on the horizon? Where is the spark likely to come from, and have the governments in the region fortified their strategies to quell such popular uprisings? We put these questions and more to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - David Schenker (Washington Inst) - Michael Sexton (Third Way National Security) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:07 PART 2 - 22:00 PART 3 - 42:22 Outro - 1:01:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The unsettling trend of Extrajudicial Killings is on the rise. A method once used mainly by the US and Russia is now being increasingly adopted by many more countries, mostly targeting defectors and opposition living abroad. With these methods ostensibly looking like a path for governments to end their most vocal opposition without consequences, the appeal is certainly clear. However, some worry that the normalization of these incidents may lead to a future where killings of controversial figures become more and more frequent on a global scale? We put this to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Sean McFate (Georgetown) - Andrei Soldatov (CEPA) - Greg Miller (Washington Post) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 06:38 PART 2 - 28:22 PART 3 - 52:02 Outro - 1:02:18 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hong Kong, is witnessing an unprecedented erosion of its "One Country, Two Systems" framework, as China tightens its grip on the region. The once clear demarcation of autonomy is now blurred, with pro-democracy aspirations clashing against Beijing's relentless advance. Beijing economically needs Hong Kong to remain open to the West, but politically worries about its effect on the mainland. So this week we sit down with our panel of distinguished experts, to unravel the complexities of this delicate situation, explore the implications of China’s moves here in Hong Kong and shed light on the intricate web of illicit financial flows and covert operations in play. On the panel this week:  - John Fowler (International Intrigue) - John Coyne (ASPI) - Dan Harris (Harris Sliwoski) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:37 PART 2 - 21:43 PART 3 - 37:20 Outro - 57:14 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Moldova, flanked by the complex dynamics of Eastern Europe, currently stands at a critical juncture in its geopolitical fate, as the simmering conflict in Transnistria, exasperated by the recent upheavals in Ukraine, has crafted a unique tableau of challenges and opportunities for both sides. Moldova's conventional forces and Transnistria's Russian-backed units each face unique pressures and advantages in this evolving context and both Moldova and Transnistria are being nudged into recalibrating their strategies or risk being swept into the storm of wider regional strife. Will Moldova's military reforms lend them a crucial edge, will the Transnistria conflict ignite into a full-blown confrontation, and how does the broadening Eastern European turmoil shape this potential flashpoint? To answer that we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week:  - James Ker-Lindsay (Uni of Kent) - Dan Darling (Forecast International) - Stephen Blank (FPRI) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:07 PART 2 - 23:06 PART 3 - 49:09 Outro - 58:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/       Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran, ensnared by its mountainous borders, now faces multifaceted threats from all directions and their strategic position is becoming increasingly perilous along every axis. Neighbours like Azerbaijan and Pakistan now pose mounting challenges to national stability, while inaction also risks problems fermenting elsewhere. As Iran's now overstretched military copes with multiple engagements across the region already, the Iranian military, defence industry and IRCG are being warned that they must undergo structural reforms or be crushed from all sides. But will the Iranian military embrace the reforms, will recent tensions in the Caucasus draw Iran into the conflict, and would a deepening relationship with Russia or China salvage Iran's hard-fought strategic gains? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week:  Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:45 PART 2 - 28:46 PART 3 - 50:56 Outro - 67:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Once the murder capital of the world, El Salvador finds itself grappling with both gang violence and geopolitical shifts. Between 2013 and 2016, murder rates soared due to gang wars and systemic extortion. President Nayib Bukele, emerging from this tumult, removes the safety catches from the government and actually tackles the issue. However, all of this is coming at a long-term cost. How does Bukele's regional vision mesh with the complexities of Central American geopolitics, and does this new path set Bukele on a collision course with the US? Join us as we dissect El Salvador's evolving position on the world stage. On the panel this week are: - Robert Guest (The Economist) - Nik McNally (The Red Line) - Margaret Myers (Inter-American Dialogue) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:04 PART 2 - 24:29 PART 3 - 42:59 Outro - 54:44 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The potential conflict between India and Pakistan stands at a precipice of alarming complexity, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours navigate a tangled web of historical tensions, territorial disputes, and geopolitical ambitions, and with India's rapidly evolving military capabilities and strategic partnerships, the landscape of South Asian defence dynamics is shifting. The theoretical pitfalls of a confrontation between these nations would have far-reaching implications, not just for the subcontinent, but for the global order. From cyber warfare to conventional battles, what would a war between India and Pakistan entail? We ask our panel of experts to unpack the scenarios, strategies, and stakes posed by this conflict: On the panel this week: - Chris Clary (Uni of Albany) - Arzan Tarapore (CISC) - Christine Fair (Georgetown) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:01 PART 2 - 30:40 PART 3 - 53:51 Outro - 1:13:51 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The economic feasibility of Nuclear Power is under an unprecedented microscope, with evolving energy solutions and changing market dynamics, the mathematical foundation that once supported the nuclear industry's robustness is now slipping. While traditional energy giants like the US, France, and Russia grapple with the shifting sands of economic viability, emergent green energy leaders are questioning the place of nuclear power in tomorrow's energy mosaic. Is nuclear energy a mere bridging solution in our transition to a carbon-neutral future, or is it an unsustainable relic of the past? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul Dorfman (SPRU) - David Schlissel (IEEFA) - James Acton (CEIP) Intro: 00:00 PART 1: 05:32 PART 2: 22:30 PART 3: 33:56 Outro: 52:50 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

UUVs or Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, are set to make the same kind of impact that UAVs previously made on the modern battlefield. With their vast operational capacities and affordable price tags, we are not only seeing major players like the US, Russia, and China engaged in a dire dash for future ocean supremacy, but also several smaller players who previously were locked out of the subsurface battlespace due to the high costs of conventional submarines. Will these new weapons serve merely as long-range recon vehicles for the major powers, or will UUVs be at the forefront of seabed warfare and underwater infrastructure sabotage? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Samuel Bendett (CNA) Bruce Jones (Brookings Inst.) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:06 PART 2 - 31:13 PART 3 - 47:51 Outro - 64:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Red Line has reached our 100th episode, and it has been an amazing journey putting all of these episodes together. But how accurate have our predictions been? We have been engaged in analysis and reporting for nearly 5 years now. So, we sat down and meticulously went through 2,000 pages of transcripts, episode by episode, to assess how many of our predictions on the show have come true and how many were incorrect. This week's episode features no guests, but rather includes clips from across all 100 episodes of the program. For more information, please visit our website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Equatorial Guinea is one of the most puzzling countries in the world, with everything from coups involving Margaret Thatcher's son, to firing squads in Santa outfits operating in the country. However, far more worrying than that is the economic cliff the country seems to be barreling toward, with the industry, worth 90% of their income, announcing their departure from the country in 2026. Will Equatorial Guinea be able to steer the country away from the cliff? Will the Instagram star VP successfully transition into his father's role? And why is this country the strangest one we have ever covered? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Perri Grace (Geopolitical Analyst) - Max Lawson (Oxfam) - Florent Geel (Fmr FIDH Dir. Africa) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:07 PART 2 - 15:29 PART 3 - 25:15 PART 4 - 33:46 Outro - 55:30 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Only swimming distance from the borders of Australia lies the island of Guinea, where half the population is currently fighting to become free from an increasingly strict Indonesian government.  Its an issue we need to talk about with helicopters, phosphorus and corruption all throughout, with people dying every day at the hand of one of our closest neighbours. This week we chat to 3 expert witnesses about the West Papuan movement. Raki Ap (One of the leading voices on the West Papuan movement) Dr Janet Steele (The director for the institute of public diplomacy and global communication) Jason Macleod (Teaches civil resistance training and education for people in non democracies at the university of Sydney). For more info you can follow The Red Line at www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It has been 18 years since NATO declared war on Afghanistan, and what do we have to show for it? Where is the war at today? Im joined by three expert witnesses who are going to give us Afghanistans past, present and likely future.  This weeks guests are  Brian Glyn Williams (CIA and NSA expert on Afghanistan) Thomas Barfield (Professor of Anthropology at Boston university) Suma Sayeed (Advisor to the State Department in Afghanistan) You can follow the show on Twitter >> @theredlinepod Facebook >> @theredlinepod www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Estonia has one of the most impressive economic transformations anywhere on the planet, gaining independence from the USSR and completely overhauling its entire institutional base. While most of the post-Soviet states experienced slow growth and economic stagnation, Estonia instead grew rapidly and became the 'Startup Capital of Europe'. However, while Estonia celebrated its economic successes, cultural issues began bubbling just under the surface, setting the stage for a series of tough decisions to be made by Tallinn today. Will Estonia be able to maintain this level of growth? Will the language laws backfire? And will Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO completely change the defence dynamic within the Baltic states? We ask our panel of experts. - Elisabeth Braw (AEI) - Marko Mihkelson (Chair of Estonian FA Comm) - Steven Pifer (Stanford) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:21 PART 2 - 19:32 PART 3 - 36:06 Outro - 1:00:09 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The ensuing dramatic demise of Françafrique and the consequential transformation of France's strategic goals in Africa have reshaped much of the geopolitics of the region. France no longer has the overt influence it once did but is instead moving to build influence with old partners through the EU and new partners through large investments into the Commonwealth nations. To France's detriment, though, other players like Russia, China, the UK, and the US have begun to move themselves into these power vacuums left by the French exit, and France may soon lose its primary position within West Africa. Who will end up holding influence over the region's natural resources? Will this impact the private sector as well? And where does the future lie for France's strategic interests? We ask our panel of experts: - Catherine Gegout (Uni of Nottingham) - Colby Connelly (Energy Intel) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:49 PART 2 - 25:39 PART 3 - 44:02 Outro - 1:02:28   Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Central Asia stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the next few months likely to set the course for the region going forward. What lies at stake in Kazakhstan's delicate balancing act? Will political stability give way to democratic progress or plunge into uncertainty? Does Kyrgyzstan's strongman rule signal a step backwards for democracy or a formidable power to reckon with? As Uzbekistan extends its ruler's reign until nearly 2040, can we ignore the unsettling erosion of democratic principles? And in Tajikistan, where power seamlessly transfers to the ruler's children, what implications loom for democratic processes? Moreover, with Turkmenistan's freedom index ranking lower than North Korea, are we confronting an unprecedented democratic crisis? What is the future of democracy in Central Asia? We are our panel of experts: - Alexander Cooley (Barnard College) - Erica Marat (NDU) - Temur Umarov (CEIP) - Steve Swerdlow (USC) - Bruce Pannier (Central Asia Journalist) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:02 - (Kazakhstan) PART 2 - 27:33 - (Kyrgyzstan) PART 3 - 39:03 - (Uzbekistan) PART 4 - 55:49 - (Tajikistan) PART 5 - 1:10:02 - (Turkmenistan) Outro - 1:28:26   Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There has been an online explosion of discourse surrounding several currency agreements signed by nations like Russia, China and India, with some even predicting the emergence of a gold-backed BRICS currency to rival the US dollar but the end of the year. Is this actually possible though, and how likely are these five countries who have wildly different levels of interest, savings and inflation, to work together in the long term, or is this just Russia and China making political noise whilst still clinging to the stability of the US Dollar? Are we experiencing the beginning of "The Death of the US Dollar?", or a masterclass on why it has maintained its primary position for so many decades now? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Vicky Pryce (CEB) - Maximilian Hess (FPRI) - Anders Åslund (Swedish Economist) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:59 PART 2 - 29:26 PART 3 - 53:53 Outro - 1:07:36 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the looming economic crisis in Egypt. With inflation on the rise, foreign investment declining, and a mounting debt burden, the country's economy is facing significant challenges. We discuss the roots of the crisis, its impact on Egypt's people, and the potential for social unrest. We'll also look at the role of the government and the military in responding to this crisis and ask what the future holds for Egypt's economy. Is this the first domino of the next Arab Spring? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Mirette F. Mabrouk (MEI) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) - David Butter (Chatham House) - Ben Fishman (Washington Inst) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:56 PART 2 - 20:26 PART 3 - 37:39 PART 4 - 52:28 Conc - 68:29 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, we explore the intensifying arms race between the US, Russia, and China in orbital satellite surveillance technology. Delving into the advanced capabilities of these countries' satellite systems and how they are changing the landscape of modern warfare. From enhanced intelligence gathering to the potential for preemptive strikes, we discuss the implications of this technological race on the future battlefield. Will this theater become more aggressive, will more and more players enter the race, and will we see the growing collaboration between Russia and China extend to space? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Tim Marshall (Author, Journalist) - Keith Masback (USGIF) - George Nacouzi (RAND) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:33 PART 2 - 23:01 PART 3 - 49:00 Conc - 68:03 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, we delve into the complex and lucrative world of the Mexican cartel drug trade and explore the economic factors that drive it. From the production and transportation of drugs to the money laundering schemes used to hide profits, we examine the various stages of the drug trade and the key players involved. We also discuss the impact of the drug trade on the Mexican economy and society, as well as the efforts being made to combat this illicit industry. Is there a way to blunt the rise of drugs like Fentanyl, or are we continuing down a path that simply empowers the cartels? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Jorge Castañeda (Fmr Foreign Minister of Mexico) - Vanda Felbab-Brown (Brookings) - Scott Mistler-Ferguson (Crime Researcher) - Steven Dudley (InSight Crime) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:52 PART 2 - 37:47 PART 3 - 59:09 PART 4 - 79:41 Conc - 96:20  Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bulgaria currently stands at a crossroads, with one group pulling the country toward the West, and an alliance of corruption, crime, and capture tethering the country toward Russia. These already high tensions are now also widening further, with the Bulgarian population heading to the polls for the fifth time in 2 years, and increasingly fringe candidates skewing internal discourse. Will Bulgaria be able to finally divest itself away from Moscow, or will it continue to act as a backdoor for Russian influence into the EU and NATO? We ask our panel of experts.  On the panel this week: - Georgi Gotev (Euractive) - Daniela Žuvela (Fortescue) - Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 04:34 PART 2 = 21:59 PART 3 = 35:58 Conc = 53:26 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China appears to be sleepwalking toward a conflict over Taiwan, and in response, East Asia has begun to prepare for a war that could start as early as 2026. Whilst some like Japan are buying up unnamed vehicles to adapt to their growing demographic crises, other nations like South Korea have become leading arms exporters across the globe. Is the war in Taiwan inevitable, is Japan's rearmament strategy likely to come to fruition in time, and how is the US readying itself for the conflict that will dictate the geopolitical trajectory of East Asia for the next three decades? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week: - Tim Heath (RAND) - Daniel Darling (Forecast International) - Mark Cancian (CSIS) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 05:39 PART 2 = 33:03 PART 3 = 51:36 Conc = 1:09:41 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The war in Ukraine completely changed how Europe saw its own defence, and once against the continent is beginning to scramble to hastily rearm and modernise its defence industries. The question being asked by several analysts though, is whether Europe is rearming for the right war? Whilst the tanks the UK, France and Germany are fast-tracking are optimal for the battlefields of Eastern Ukraine, they are of little use for future conflicts in the jungles of Mali, the foothills of the Balkans or even the beaches of Taiwan. Is Europe once again preparing to fight the last war? On the panel this week:  - Neil Melvin (RUSI) - Alex Clarkson (Kings College) - Perun (Defense Analyst) - James Black (RAND) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 03:51 PART 2 - 29:59 PART 3 = 43:59 PART 4 = 1:05:06 Outro = 1:30:36 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With demand for oil skyrocketing, the US are now reconsidering the usefulness of Venezuela's massive natural oil reserves. To meet the demand in the market, some in Washington are now even going as far as to propose the beginning of the normalisation of relations between Washington and Venezuela, with oil company Chevron already beginning operations inside the country as a test case. If the process goes ahead, it may signal an end to the US policy of "maximum pressure" throughout the region and the beginning of a region-wide policy shift. But how far will either side be willing to take these talks, and how will Venezuela's current allies in China and Russia react to these developments? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week:  - Phil Gunson (Crisis Group) - Ben Norton (Geopolitical Economy) - Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There are major faultlines appearing within the Chinese economy, particularly within many of the state government's budgets. Large debts are now all coming due, and the leadership in Beijing will be faced with several tough decisions within the next few months. Will Xi choose the plunge the country into a self-imposed, but managed downtown, or will the bubble burst on its own, throwing the country into economic chaos? We sit down with our panel of experts to find out.  On the panel this week:  - Joanna Chiu (Toronto Star) - Logan Wright (Rhodium Group) - David Dollar (Brookings Institute) Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Numerous analysts failed to correctly predict the outcome of a war between Russia and Ukraine, with many anticipating Russia would conquer Ukraine within a matter of weeks. Some analysts, though, the ones watching Syria closely, could see the fractures in the Russian army beforehand, and these analysts are now watching Syria closely again. With Russia's position inside the country shifting quickly, will the Kremlin continue to pilot the country's decade-long civil war, or are other players beginning to move into the growing power vacuum? Can the Russian operations here in Syria once again show us the future of Ukraine? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Joanne H Cummings (Baylor Uni) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) - Wladimir Van Wilgenburg (Journalist) - Charles Lister (MEI) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

North Korea, a nation whose GDP is equivalent to that of the small island of Jamaica, has tested a record amount of missiles this year. With these increasing tests, there is a worry that they will build upon this momentum, and in the future, pose a credible threat to the United States itself. In response to this, several prominent figures have been calling for the US to preempt this event, and carry out an invasion of the DPRK, solving the issue once and for all. But how difficult would an invasion be, is the cost worth it, and will a conflict here pull the rest of the region in with it? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week: - Bruce Bennett (RAND) - Chad O'Carroll (NKNews) - Michael Green (CSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This year Russia has watched their geopolitical position within the region sink from bad to worse, and now there is a brand new issue facing Moscow, with the Russian version of NATO, the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), facing a crisis of confidence. After Azerbaijan called Russia's bluff in the Caucasus, the world now knows the core of the CSTO treaty is worthless. So what happens now, will the organisation disband, will an outside power like China take over the reins, or will it simply continue to evaporate slowly? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Steven Pifer (Stanford) - Temur Umarov (Carnegie) - Raffaello Pantucci (RSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There is no greater challenge when it comes to Climate Change than that of the energy transition. For some countries, it will mean investing billions into the modernisation of their power grids, and for other countries, it will mean abandoning the source of revenue responsible for around 80% of thier national GDP. The prominent question in front of these countries now though is will these countries begin preparing for the transition now, or will they be blindsided when the market does it for them? On the panel this week: - Lou Munden (TMP) - Theresa Sabonis-Helf (Georgetown Uni) - Colby Connelly (EnergyIntel) - John Calabrese (Middle East Inst) - Henry Sanderson (Benchmark Mineral Intel) This episode is Part 5 of 5 of our miniseries, The Green Line, examining the near-term geopolitical implications of Climate Change. Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Billions of dollars worth of aid have been sent over the recent decades in hopes of building up the developing world, but whether the aid is achieving its stated goals is still up for debate. So this week, we look at how aid is being spent in Africa, how it compares to private funding and foreign loans, and what would need to be changed to make the impact on the ground? On the panel this week: - Max Lawson (Oxfam) - Daron Acemoglu (MIT) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The world is on the precipice of the new revolution in Green Technology, but where do the materials for this Green Tech come from? One of the primary materials required for everything from smartphones to electric vehicle batteries is Cobalt, and silvery-gold looking mineral found primarily in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC holds the vast majority of the world's Cobalt, and the country has become a vital part of the global supply chain, but how safe is that? Are we betting the entire future of Green tech on a country already barreling toward war, floods, and civil conflicts? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Jason Stearns (Congo Research Group) - Ben Radley (Uni of Bath) - Bossissi Nkuba (Uni of Antwerp & UCBukavu) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS Africa) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Saudi Arabia is experiencing numerous simultaneous challenges at the moment, ranging from royal infighting, a rearming Yemen, a diverging population, and a growing threat from Iran. Tasked with guiding the Saudis through this storm is MBS, a leader whose track record leaves a bit to be desired. What is troubling most regional analysts though, is that the global reliance on Saudi oil means that if Saudi Arabia were to falter here, it might take down several Western Economies with it. On the panel this week: - Helen Lackner (ECRF) - Roby Barrett (MEI) - Jane Kinninmont (ELN) - Sanam Vakil (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Water is the most precious resource known to man, but some countries are currently preparing to wield it as a weapon. Through the building of hydroelectric dams, the shrinking of water supplies, or plain geography, water is set to reshape the balance of power in many of the world's geopolitical flashpoints. So where are these flashpoints, who is set to gain the upper hand, and how will climate craft a new reality for these nations? To answer that, we sat down with a panel of geopolitical experts.  On the panel this week: - Ben Bowie (TMP) - Alex De Waal (World Peace Foundation) - Bruce Pannier (Freelance Journalist) - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Centre) - Gordon Flake (Perth USAsia Center) Made in partnership with The Mission Climate Project This episode is Part 3 of our 5 part series.  Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Biden administration has just dealt a massive blow to the trajectory of the Chinese military, placing a ban on high-end microchips and semiconductors entering China. This is a virtually unprecedented move, and will almost certainly anchor down any growth for China's next generation of warfighting technology, but was this the right time? This is the most prominent card the US could have possibly played. Should they have played it now and given Beijing a chance to recover before a possible war, or played it later when China was at its most vulnerable? We sat down with our panel of experts to ask what effects these sanctions will have both now, and in the long term. On the panel this week: - Tim Cross (The Economist) - Bob Guterma (The China Project) - Jordan Schneider (Rhodium Group) - Chris Miller (Tufts School) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Beijing now plays a crucial part in the global supply chain, and with it, the global CO2 output. However, even though China only recently reached this level of industrialisation, climate change is hitting them at the same time as everywhere else. These changes in the environment are pushing China to fish in potentially war-starting waters, dam potentially drought-causing rivers, and force the state to attempt to achieve 60 years of energy development in the space of 5. Can they do it, or will China collapse under its own weight? On the panel this week: - Lou Munden (Mission Climate Project) - Kevin Rudd (Fmr Prime Minister of Australia) - Erin Sikorsky (Cnt for Climate and Security) - Erik Solheim (President of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative) This is Part 2 of our special 5-Part Series focusing on The Geopolitics of Climate Change This Production was Brought to you by The Red Line and Mission Climate Project Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mozambique has been struggling with an insurgency in its North for a number of years now, but events now appear to be moving from bad to worse. The area known as Cabo Delgado has chewed up and spat out PMCs and soldiers ranging from Russia's Wagner Group to South Africa's special forces, so will the EU or Rwanda finally be able to finally secure the contagious revolution in the North, or will this instability continue to deter international investors from entering Mozambique?  On the panel this week: - Borges Nhamirre (ISS) - Irina Tsukerman (Washington Inst) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Whilst debates around Climate Change still rage on US TV, the US Military has been quietly preparing for the now inevitable. Planners are now acutely aware of just how quick Climate Change is coming down upon us, and how dramatically it will change the geopolitics of the planet. What wargames are the military running in preparation for this? Which theatres do they project to be the most impacted? and is the US ready for a worst-case scenario? We ask our panel of experts.  On the panel this week: - Sharon Burke (Ecospherics/Fmr White House) - John Conger (Center for Climate and Security/Fmr White House) - Larry Wilkerson (Fmr Chief of Staff to Colin Powell) This is Part 1 of our special 5-Part Series focusing on The Geopolitics of Climate Change This Production was Brought to you by The Red Line and Mission Climate Project Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a landslide democratic victory the military siezed power with a coup in February 2021. To prevent democracy from slipping away once again, the people of Myanmar stood up against the military junta. These protests began what would spiral into a 19-month war that has shattered the country, and broken the economy. Now the war is entering a new stage, with the Junta retreating across the country. As the Junta retreat back to the major cities though, the opposition has begun to fracture and turn on each other. Is Myanmar about to plunge into an even more complicated civil war?  On the panel this week: - Min Zaw Oo (CSIS) - Benjamin Strick (Myanmar Witness) - Joshua Kurlantzick (CFR) - Jason Tower (USIP) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Turkey is attempting to reassert itself back onto the world stage but stands at a crossroads as to which direction to extend its influence. Europe has blocked Turkey's entry into the EU for decades now, and Central Asia remains a little out of reach, so should Ankara turn toward the Middle East for adventurism. With this question in mind, we ask our experts what are Turkey's short and long-term goals here in the Middle East, and whether we will see Turkey once again use its geography to dominate the energy industry.  On the panel this week: - Gönül Tol (MEI) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) - Matthew Bryza (Jamestown) - James F. Jeffrey (Wilson Centre) Follow the show @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We are now entering the sixth month of Russia's major offensive into Ukraine, and whilst reporters are fixed on the number of tank and infantry battles occurring across the country, many are missing the heated struggles taking place in within Ukraine's cyberspace. In this theatre, where many expected Russia to simply trample over Ukraine, the defenders have not only held their ground but are now taking the fight to Russia. So did we overestimate the Russian cyber capabilities, or is there more to this story? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Roman Osadchuk (Atlantic Council) - Brig. Gen. Yurii Shchyhol (Head of SSSCIP for Ukraine) - Gavin Wilde (CEIP) - James Lewis (CSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The aircraft carrier has been the crown jewel of national fleets for nearly 80 years, with these steel giants being the decisive factor in many of the last centuries' pivotal battles. With their growth in importance though, came a growth in ship size, and the new supercarrier class has become such a monolith that the production of just one unit costs more than the entire military budget of most of the US's adversaries combined. Is this a wise move, to build the greatest mobile fortress to every head to sea? Or will this new generation of Chinese submarines, stealth bombers and hypersonic missiles destroy decades of US progress in a single afternoon, for less than 1% of the price?  On the panel this week: - Drachinifel (Naval Historian) - Sam Roggeveen (Lowy Inst) - Robert Farley (Patterson School) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Human trafficking has become the third largest industry in the black market, but unlike guns or drugs, which see millions of convictions per year, human trafficking sees less than 0.5% of cases prosecuted. So why is an industry that is so awful allowed to get away with so much, and what is preventing national governments from properly pursuing some of the world's most appalling perpetrators? We sit down with an expert panel to figure out why.  On the panel this week - John Coyne (ASPI) - Gaby DeBellis (Human Rights Lawyer) - Martina Vandenberg (The Human Trafficking Legal Center) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The collapse of the USSR brought about a period within Russia of unbridled chaos, devolving into a free-for-all amongst citizens unsure where their next meal might be coming from. Everything that could have been stolen, was stolen, and included in that were up to 400 nuclear weapons. But where did all of these weapons end up, and how secure is the rest of Russia's apocalyptic arsenal today? Will the nuclear black market be responsible for the next major terrorist attack?  On the panel this week  - Robin M Frost - (Simon Fraser Uni) - Eric Gomez - (CATO) - Foeke Postma - (Bellingcat) - Andrew Futter - (Uni. of Leicester) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the Baloch separatists continue to build pressure on Islamabad with several clashes in the country's south, many in the region are beginning to unsettle that this movement may destabilise the entire regional balance of power. Iran and Afghanistan worry that the successes here may inspire Baloch in their respective territories as well, the Chinese fear the additional attacks on its Pakistani infrastructure may be the nail in the coffin for the China-Pakistan corridor, and others in the neighbourhood fret that a Baloch victory may bring about the dissolution of Pakistan itself.  Joining us this week - Sahar Khan (CATO) - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Centre) - James Dobbins (RAND) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Decades of interweaving between Europe and the Russian gas industry came crashing down upon Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, and now Europe has been thrown into a no-win situation. The EU can stand with Ukraine, but it will mean tying an economic anchor around the continent's neck. Is the EU unified enough to travel down the more challenging roads, or will economic expediency win the day?  Joining us this week: - Colby Connelly (Energy Intel) - Luca Anceschi (Uni of Glasgow) - Hari Seshasayee (Wilson Centre) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

80% of the world's trade will pass through the Indian Ocean at some point on its journey, yet the importance of this crucial theatre seems lost on many observers at the moment. With Beijing, Washington and New Dehli all making moves to capitalise on this crucial waterway which one of these nations has the momentum behind them? And which nation is beginning to fall behind?  On the show this week - - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Centre) - Michael Wesley (Uni of Melbourne) - Dhruva Jaishankar (ORF) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When Lukashenko released the now infamous Russian war plans map he raised alarm bells throughout Europe, signalling that Russia may be looking to conquer Ukraine first and Moldova second. The war has taken a drastic turn since that point, but the question of Moldovan security still looms over the Northern Balkans. Could reunification with Romania be a back door entry into EU membership and protection under the NATO umbrella, or will Transnistria continue to be the thorn in Chisinau's side? On the panel this week - Dennis Deletant (UCL) - Matei Rosca (Reporter.London) - James Ker-Lindsay (Uni of Kent) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most Latin American ambassadors tell the same story. Whilst every meeting with the US revolves around China, every meeting with the Chinese revolves around infrastructure. Beijing is making huge economic moves into South and Central America, but what is the US doing to counter it?  On the show this week.  - Margaret Myers (American Dialogue) - Evan Ellis (US Army War College) - Paul Angelo (CFR) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

War is an increasingly complicated operation, and these days most battles are fought on excel spreadsheets as much as they are in the field. The US has just launched a barrage of sanctions against long time rival Russia, a far bigger fish than the usual target of such an economic attack. When the US sanctions Venezuela or Iran the blowback domestically is minimal, but what happens when sanctions are applied to a major economy what will the result be? Will this be the action that shakes the US's economic hegemony? Joining us this week is  - William Reinsch (CSIS) - Kate Bauer (Washington Institute) - Chris Miller (Tufts University) - John Parachini (RAND) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow the Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oman has for decades now pitched itself as the "Switzerland of the Middle East", holding a steady course of neutrality above all. Staying neutral though is a luxury afforded by good times, a luxury that can be forcefully taken away by others.  As the dynamics of the Middle East begin to change, and multipolar completion intensifies in the region can Oman maintain its current course, or will it be forced to finally decide where its future lies? On the panel this week: - Calvin Allen (Uni of Shenandoah)  - Colby Connelly (Energy Intel) - Bruce Reidel (Brookings Institute) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information visit: - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The higher the temperature, the higher the chance of a fire. With the current myriad of crises in West Africa, we are witnessing a frightening rise in the geopolitical temperature each and every month. A wave of coups has begun sweeping across much of the region, but whilst all of these coups have individual circumstances something must be permeating the region as a whole to make this possible? On the panel this week.  - Ebenezer Obadare (CFR) - Hennie Strydom (Uni of Johannesburg) - Michael Rubin (AEI) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Washington and Beijing continuing to engage in a new competition for international influence, Europe stands in an odd place. Combined the EU is the largest GDP in the world, but from a military standpoint, the continent has become a patchwork of forces with wildly varied operability. To maintain its position as a world power should Europe double down on its continental experiment and form a united European army, or do the scars of history and millennium of violence still prevent Europe from standing defensively on its own? Joining us this week.  - Phil Breedlove (Fmr Cmd NATO EUR) - Sophia Besch (Cen. European Reform) - George Friedman (Geopolitical Futures) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The world's soon to be newest nation is stepping out onto the world stage, complicating the geopolitics of its region. A fractured Papua New Guinea worries Bougainville may start a trend of breakaway states, The Solomon Islands worry about competing interests, China worries about others consolidating the Copper industry, and Australia is worried about betting on the wrong horse. How will the independence of Bougainville shake up the balance of power in Melanesia? We ask our panel of experts. Our panel this week.  - Tess Newton Cain (Pacific Hub) - Bal Kama (ANU) - Michael Shoebridge (ASPI) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We are entering the next stage of the Syrian Civil War, a less bloody stage, but a far more impactful one. The major powers that ratcheted this war to where it is today are now looking to finalise the future for the country, will it be divided into zones of control, will the US look to negotiate a settlement, or will Assad regain control of his former nation?  There are few good options on the table, and each one of them comes with a myriad of consequences.  Joining us this week.  - Joshua Landis (Uni of Oklahoma) - Doug Bandow (CATO Inst) - Robert Ford (Fmr US Amb to Syria) - Charles Lister (Middle East Institute) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Suriname is a country so far off of most analysts radar that few have looked past its basic details and into its complicated geopolitical crossroads. The leader of the country is now faced with a decision to either change to seek the quick riches of the burgeoning oil industry, or to maintain a somewhat diversified economy and keep his growth and momentum grounded. This new leadership already signals major reforms for the country, but how far can you change the course of a nation without creating instability? On the panel this week - Evan Ellis (US War College) - Perri Grace (Geopolitical Analyst) - Christopher Sabatini (Chatham House) Follow the Red Line on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Turkey spent much of the 20th-century building itself back up from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, striving to once again become the major power at the world's crossroads. Turkey's influence now extends to the battlefields of North Africa, to the slopes of the Caucasus, to the supply chains of Europe, and into the frontlines of Syria. Although there is one more front Turkey is looking to gain influence in, Central Asia. Can Ankara use its cultural connections with its Turkic neighbours across the Caspian to position itself as the balance of power between Russia and China in Central Asia? On the panel this week - Alex Kokcharov (Russia Analyst) - Matthew Bryza (Fmr US Amb) - Hugh Williamson (Human Rights Watch) - Bruce Pannier (Radio Free Liberty) Follow the Red Line on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Causing international chaos has never been cheaper or easier, with terrorist groups able to gather funding and recruits from across the world. The question is though, why can't we just cut off these groups from their funding? How are they able to use the banking systems to take donations, and the West seems unable to prevent it? We ask our expert panel how these groups are funded, and what can be done to weaken them?  On the panel this week - John Coyne (ASPI) - Mick Mulroy (Lobo Institute) - Matthew Levitt (Washington Institute) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Whilst the eyes of the world are fixated on Russia's border with Ukraine, Moscow is beginning to make major moves 7500km to the East on Russia's Pacific coast. The major powers have begun their pivot to Asia, and now Russia is scrambling to reassert itself into a struggle unfolding right in its own backyard. Will Russia be able to regain regional leadership, or will they take a back seat to an ascendant China?  On the panel this week  - Neil Melvin (RUSI) - Natasha Kuhrt (Kings College) - Jeffrey Edmonds (CNA) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bosnia is currently sliding back toward ethnic conflict and civil strife as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik proposes major reforms that would help even further break down the countries fragile political ecosystem. Whilst the US and the EU turn their attention elsewhere in the world the Balkans are once again becoming a powderkeg set to explode on Europe's doorstep.  On the panel this week - James Ker-Lindsay (Kent University) - Majda Ruge (ECRF) - Tim Marshall (Author) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sri Lanka has for decades experienced crisis after crisis, but throughout it all remained steadfastly neutral, always being able to play bigger players like India and China off of each other. But now with a worsening financial crisis and ethnic tensions flaring up again can Colombo afford to go it alone?  On the panel this week  - Asanga Abeyagoonasekera (APCSS) - Tharaka Balasuriya (Minister for Regional Coop) - Thamil Ananthavinayagan (Uni. of Nottingham) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit  - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Russia becoming increasingly brazen on NATO's Eastern flank, the Baltic nations aren't looking as safe as they once were. Could we see another unofficial invasion of the Baltic states by Russia's little green men, and if so how would NATO respond? This week we sit down with our panel and talk through NATO's Baltic defence plan, and what needs to change to be able to guarantee the safety of NATO's Eastern frontier.  On the panel this week.  - Mathieu Boulegue (Chatham House) - Thomas Graham (CFR) - David Shlapak (RAND) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www. theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

War is becoming increasingly privatised, and the rules of the battlefield are shifting. Now we are reaching a point when companies are fighting companies, and the international justice system has no framework to deal with it. This week we take a look at just how out of control the situation has become by analysing Wagner's operations in Africa and on the sea.  On the panel this week.  - Sean Mcfate (Atlantic Council) - Catrina Doxsee (CSIS) - Andreas Krieg (Kings College) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For decades Algeria has been tussling for the leadership position in North Africa with its Western neighbour Morocco, the fighting has stretched from Western Sahara, to the Sahel, and even to competing economies. Now the conflict is beginning to bubble up again, will it mean victory for Algeria, or internal collapse for Africas largest nation. We ask our expert panel.  On the panel this week. - Jalel Harchaoui (Global Initiative) - Robert S. Ford (Fmr US Ambassador) - Riccardo Fabiani (Intl Crisis Group) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Vietnam is quickly become the new frontline in the South China Sea, with the nation standing in the direct path of an expansionist China. Will Vietnam be able to once again be the rock great empires crash upon, or will they be pulled into Beijing's gravitational orbit.  On the panel this week  Sebastian Strangio - The Diplomat Huong Le Thu - ASPI Gordon Flake - Perth USAsia Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Space has become the newest battlefield to undergo wide-ranging militarization, with everything from Nuclear Weapons to Kamikaze Satellites being deployed into orbit. What was once just a two-horse race between the US and the USSR has now burst right open, and the dominant position in space may be up for grabs; with serious geopolitical consequences here on Earth.  On the panel this week.  - Bleddyn Bowen (University of Leicester) - Alexey Muraviev (Curtin University) - John B. Sheldon (Policy Exchange) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Since 1994 Belarus has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, better known as Europe's last dictator. 2020 though brought a brand new wave of protests and Lukashenko's position in power has become somewhat shakey, and he is beginning to outlive his usefulness to the Kremlin. Will the Kremlin fight to keep him there, or place someone else on the throne? Is there a future for Belarus in the West?  On the panel this week - Scott Rauland (Fmr US Amb to Belarus) - Heather Conley (CSIS) - Steven Pifer (Fmr US Amb to Ukraine) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Turkey and Greece have been battling each other for influence over the Eastern Mediterranean now for centuries, and nowhere is that struggle more evident than on the island of Cyprus. The island is currently divided into 3 parts, and for decades the conflict has remained stagnant, but will the conflict reignite with the discovery of a range of new gas fields off the coast?  On the panel this week - Madalina Vicari (Geopolitics Writier) - Andreas Theophanous (Uni of Nicosia) - Matthew Bryza (Fmr Ambassador) - Robert M Cutler (NATO Canada) Follow the show on - @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on - @MikeHilliardAus More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

South America's largest nation is currently in the middle of a tumultuous period, with war at home and a looming financial crisis on the horizon. What does the next decade hold in store for the heart of the continent, and will the military retake control of the country? We ask our expert panel.  - Christoph Harig (HSU Hamburg) - Victor Pougy (Intercept Brazil) - Christopher Sabatini (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the attention of the world focused elsewhere, a conflict that threatens the stability of an entire continent has slipped under the radar. Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict has rapidly spiralled out of control, decimating their Armed Forces and sending the country toward the brink of collapse. With few options left, the now desperate Ethiopian Government is recalling their peacekeepers from dozens of hotspots across Africa, opening the door for conflicts throughout the continent to reignite.  On the panel this week. Kjetil Tronvoll (Oslo Analytica) Alan Boswell (Crisis Group)Alex De Waal (World Peace Foundation)For more info please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Diamonds have been used to pay militias and rebel groups for decades due to their ease of transportation, global demand, and reliable value. After diamonds fuelled conflict across Africa, the Kimberley Process was created to stop the use of conflict diamonds, but its limitations have left key loopholes open. Exploiting these has allowed this trade to rampage through the African continent once again. How can this process be reformed? And who will pay the price? On the panel this week. Brad Brooks Rubin - Global Initiative Russel Shor - Minerals Journalist Shamiso Mtisi - Kimberley Process Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dubai's transformation from a fishing village to a global hub epitomises the unlikely country that is the United Arab Emirates. Massive oil wealth has enabled them to punch above their weight, but as the world marches away from oil, the pressure is building to secure their future while they still can. How will the UAE diversify? And what is its ambitious Red Sea strategy? We ask our expert panel: Hilal Khashan (American University of Beirut) Helen Lackner (ECFR) Bilal Saab (Middle East Institute) For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To counter an ever-expanding China, Tokyo is turning abroad in search of allies. Key to this is the recent revival of "The Quad", a strategic dialogue between The US, Australia, Japan and India. Will it be enough to counter their rising neighbour across the East China Sea? Is this the first step to creating an "Asian NATO", and what will Chinas response be? We ask our expert panel. On the panel this week: Owen Swift (ASPI) John Nilsson-Wright (Cambridge) John Coyne (ASPI) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Half way down the old Silk Road lies the former Soviet republic of Uzbekistan, the republic that connects all of the Central Asian states. With the passing of their long-term dictator Uzbekistan is now making big steps forward but the weights left over from their past will be hard to shake, one of those being an entire rotting island that once housed the Soviet biological warfare program now radiating out into the desert.  On the panel this week - Joanna Lillis (The Economist) - Nikita Makarenko (Uzbek Journalist) - Kristaps Andrejsons (The Eastern Border) - Bruce Pannier (Radio Free Liberty) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael in @MikeHilliardAus For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With each major technological leap forward in warfare the rules of war also change, and the new frontier of Cyber Warfare has completely thrown out the conventional concept of the first strike. With tens of thousands of cyber-attacks are occurring each day from all of the major players how prepared any nation is to be able to defend itself is now a giant question mark.  On the panel this week - Tom Uren (ASPI) - Brandon Valeriano (CATO) - Jody Westby (Global Cyber Risk) - Bruce Schneier (Harvard University) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the Northwestern edge of the Sahara desert lies the former Spanish colonial possession of Western Sahara. The region has been in various states of conflict for over 50 years, with Morocco's Royal Armed Forces and the Algerian-supported Arab Sahrawi Democratic Republic battling it out for control. We look at the origins of this conflict, the difficulties in resolving it, and the consequences for failing to do so for the stability of Western Africa.   On the panel this week  Stephen Zunes (Cornell University) Riccardo Rabiani (Crisis Group) Jalel Harchaoui (Global Initiative) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliard For more in please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 1823 US President James Monroe declared "The Monroe Doctrine", that the Western hemisphere would be the backyard of the United States. That doctrine is now almost 200 years old and the world is a very different place, European powers such as the Netherlands, UK and France all hold colonies in the Sea; and other players such as Venezuela and Cuba are putting forward competition as well.  The real threat for the US though may come from outside powers shopping around for strategic footholds in an area the US regularly overlooks.  On the panel this week.  Ivelaw Griffiths (CSIS) Vicki Assevero (Atlantic Council) Victor Bulmer-Thomas (Chatham House) For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on - @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on - @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Georgia has been at the heart of regional geopolitics for decades now, smashed between three expanding areas of influence from Moscow, Ankara and Tehran, with Georgia desperately trying to act as the neutral ground.  But war is already there in the Georgian homeland, with the two breakaway Moscow facing republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, adding more complications to an already tumultuous region.  On the panel this week.  Gerard Toal (Geopolitical Author) Natia Seskuria (RUSI) Neil Hauer (Conflict Journalist) Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe) Follow the show in @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When Obama left the White House he stated that the thing that kept him up at night more than anything else was the potential for Pakistan and India to stumble into an unplanned nuclear exchange.  What was once a regional conflict has now drawn in a number of great powers such as China, and the US, but no side yet has a real plan to try to avert the risk of this simmering conflict going nuclear. The estimate is that in the event of an Indian invasion toward Islamabad the Pakistani command may only have around 6 hours to either "use or lose" their nuclear weapons, so we ask our panel what the likely outcome will be for this nightmare scenario.  On the panel this week.  Ayesha Jalal (Tufts University) Adam Weinstein (Foreign Policy) Andrew Small (George Marshall Fund) For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For a number of years Iraq has been spiraling, with worsening insurgencies, sectarian violence and numerous regional players all treating Iraq like a political battleground. How did we get here though? What was the decision made to bring Iraq to the point we stand at now, and will decisions coming up better or worsen the situation? On the panel this week.  JAMES LEBOVIC  (George Washington University) DIYAR AMEEN (Kurdistan Mission to the EU) JOSEPH VOTEL (Rtr 4-Star US General) For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We dont think much about it but Rare Earth elements are a huge part of our everyday life, powering our phones, laptops, satellites and cars. The thing we all overlook though is where those Rare Earths are coming from, and right now China controls 98%+ of the market, meaning that every single high technology item we use at some point relies on China.  That issue compounds as well when you realise that this problem extends to the defence industry, with state of the art US fighters such as the F-35 being unbuildable if the Chinese refuse to do their part of the process. The situation is far more complicated than many people realise, and we may be a decade from any real solution.  This weeks guests - Guillaume Pitron (Le Monde Diplomatique) - Julie Klinger (University of Delaware) - Teague Egan (EnergyX) - Sophia Kalantzakos (New York University) For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on - @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on - @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Lake Chad has shrunk by almost 90% since 1960, and the situation on the ground is becoming a breeding ground for regional terrorism. Outfits like Boko Haram, and ISIS in Africa are now capturing big patches of land in Lake Chad Region.  France, the US, and their regional partners are trying desperately to avoid the situation spinning out of control, but with a shrinking lake how successful can they be? This weeks panel Tomasz Rolbiecki (Uni of Gdansk) Vincent Foucher (CNRS + Crisis Group) John Campbell (CFR + Fmr US Ambassador) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russias entire defense strategy relies on a friendly or neutral Ukraine, so when Ukraine almost turned to the west in a revolution in 2014 panic swept the Kremlin; and Russia invaded and occupied the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in the East.  Will this war slow down to frozen conflict like in Transnistria, or will it roar back to life like in Karabakh, we ask our expert panel.  This week  Steven Pifer (Brookings Institute) Gustav Gressel (European Council of Foreign Relations) Thomas Graham (Yale University) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Xi has thrown down the gauntlet and stated that Taiwan will return to the Peoples Republic of China by 2049, whether Taiwan wants it or not. So now a countdown timer has started, and Taiwan scrambles to prepare for what Beijing may throw at it. Should they build a large navy? Should they try and push the Chinese back into sea fighting on the beaches? Should the Taiwanese retreat to the jungles and fight a bloody insurgency from there? We ask our expert panel what strategy Taiwan is likely to take, and whether or not it is likely to be effective against the entire PLA. This weeks panel Eric Gomez (CATO Institute) Sheena Chestnut Greitens (University of Texas) Robert D Kaplan (Geopolitics Author) More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

No country could possibly feel more like "the edge of the known world" than the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan.  A nation where the president has been in power since '92 and has ruled the country with an iron fist, amassing a huge amount of wealth for himself using everything from Aluminum to Heroine; but things are beginning to change and Dushanbe could very soon be answering to new masters. Tajikistan is the latest battleground between Beijing and Moscow, the winner of which is yet to be decided.  This weeks panel  Peter Leonard (Eurasianet) John Heathershaw (Exeter University) Edward Lemon (Oxus Society) Mathieu Boulegue (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Or follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Support the show at - https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Colombia has always been closely associated with the international Cocaine trade, but the situation there is far more complicated with wider ramifications for the entire region.  The government of Bogota has been at war with the rebels in a 6-way struggle for almost 60 years, with a peace deal now sitting on the table. Is this deal a workable peace though, or just the start of the next phase? We ask our expert panel.  Allison Fedirka (Geopolitical Futures) Ted Piccone (Brookings Institution) Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Like many of the ex-soviet republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been part of the frozen conflict now since the early '90s, but Azerbaijan has spent the last few years building up a massive modern army. Baku has now used that army to engage in a full-scale war with Armenia in an attempt to recapture the land lost in 91.  With the Armenians in full retreat and the Azeris moving into their old positions what will this mean for the region? Will Ankara or Moscow have the final say on the battlefield? We ask our expert panel. ALEX RAUFOGLU (Eurasia Journalist) NICK MUTCH (Byline Times) CAREY CAVANAUGH (Fmr US Ambassador) LAURENCE BROERS (Chatham House) More info on - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at - www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With a new cold war between the USA and China looming on the horizon the balance of power in Asia is being drawn up, with Beijing and Washington vying for influence in the region. Of all the nations of importance though none will be as crucial as Indonesia.  Set to be the 4th largest economy by the year 2050 Indonesia is quickly becoming a regional leader, one that could dictate the direction for ASEAN and SE Asia for decades to come. So we sat down with our expert panel to talk about the future of this soon to be giant.  On the panel this week Kyle Springer (US Asia Centre) Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) Gordon Flake (US Asia Centre) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What was once considered a Soviet lake is now quickly becoming one of the most important strategic locations in the region, with Russia working hard to maintain its grip over the sea. The important part though may be what lies beneath its surface, that being enough gas to power Europe and blunt Russia's gas monopoly.  So whoever controls the Caspian, will have major leverage over the European powers, but to discuss this further we turn to our expert panel.  Eugene Chausovsky (Centre for Global Policy) Stanislav Printchin (ECED) Robert M Cutler (NATO Canada) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices