NAB Morning Call

Monday 29th April 2024

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The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to?

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Friday 26th April 2024

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Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we don’t simply extract minerals and ship overseas. There’s an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen’s place in Australia’s future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production.

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Wednesday 24th April 2024

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Is stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings data. They also discuss Australia’s latest CPI data which will mean a revised forecast from the RBA, but what does it do to the speed of rate cuts? And could the Bank of Japan surprise today, as the Yen hits another low?

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Wednesday 24th April 2024

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PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Tesla’s earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing.

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Tuesday 23rd April 2024

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The force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on today’s podcast.

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Monday 22nd April 2024

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The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week.

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Friday 19th April 2024

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This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already benefiting from real wages growth which should accelerate domestic demand, whilst a June cut by the ECB seems likely, with Pantheon predicting four cuts in total this year. That’ll free up even more household spending whilst boosting the investment opportunities for business. But is there the confidence in the economy to support that shift in demand and production? And what of a likely trade dispute with China and the potential of increased geopolitical volatility in the Middle East? Could they impact inflation and hinder Europe’s relatively lacklustre growth opportunity?

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Friday 19th April 2024

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Fed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japan’s CPI and UK retail numbers today. And we give you the latest Netflix earnings – a knockout for new subscribers. Plus a taste of what’s to come on the Weekend Edition.

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Thursday 18th April 2024

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Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping  the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel industry. Today Australia’s employment numbers will be the focus. The unemployment rate rose considerably in February but as Rodrigo points out, these numbers can be very volatile.

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Wednesday 17th April 2024

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There’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers.

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Tuesday 16th April 2024

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The latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF.

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Monday 15th April 2024

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How markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. There’s also discussion on China’s trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics.

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Friday 12th April 2024

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Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this?

JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity.

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Friday 12th April 2024

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Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet.

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Thursday 11th April 2024

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US inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today.

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Wednesday 10th April 2024

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US CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie.

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Tuesday 9th April 2024

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10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more. 

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Monday 8th April 2024

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US non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy to see a broader workforce because it would ease wage inflation pressures? There’s also discussion on rising commodity prices, the record price of gold and yet a falling Australian balance of trade. Three central banks meet in the week ahead. Listen in for more.

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Friday 5th April 2024

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China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scale developments being forced into administration? Diana Choyleva is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, a research company based in London that focuses on China. She suggests the short-term target is likely achievable, but the longer term proposition is less certain as the economy struggles to create increased domestic demand whilst undergoing more decoupling from the west.

There are further insights available from the Enodo Economics website, including this paper: China Unveils Expansionary Policy In Support Of Xi's Security Objectives - https://bit.ly/3U2xiAE

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Friday 5th April 2024

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The latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead of the next release later this month. Meanwhile equity markets have been choppy ahead of tonight’s payrolls numbers in the US, whilst the ECB minutes reaffirm that a June cut is likely. But then what?

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Thursday 4th April 2024

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Jerome Powell spoke at the Stamford Forum overnight, reiterating that the Fed was prepared to wait before cutting rates. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are now stating to come to terms with the fact that a June cut is almost certainly off the cards, and three cuts this year are looking less and less likely. But how long do they wait for? The Services ISM was weaker than anticipated, could a delay in cuts cause unnecessary damage to the economy? A June cut is far more likely in Europe, where the Eurozone CPI read came in lower than expected. The ECB meeting minutes out today will be eagerly perused for any indication to the contrary.

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Wednesday 3rd April 2024

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Bond yields continued to rise in the US overnight, with Europe playing catch-up as it returns from a long Easter weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the adjustment markets are making to their rate cut expectations from the Fed. European bonds also rose even though today’s Eurozone inflation number could be lower than expected. There’s also discussion of the RBA minutes, which seem a little more hawkish than the tone set in the statement and press conference. 

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Tueday 2nd April 2024

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The US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, and job claims fell last week? Rau suggests its more of a ‘no landing’ situation, if the data holds out. There was good news from China too over the weekend. It might be a short week, but it’s a busy one. Phil and Ray talk through what to expect.

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Friday 22nd March 2024

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Bronwyn Curtis OBE is an Australian economist living in the UK with an illustrious career in finance. She’s headed Currency and Fixed Income at Deutsche Bank, then later at HSBC, as well as working fo the World Bank in Latin America and Asia, and overseeing development of Bloomberg’s European broadcast operations.

Bronwyn joins Phil Dobbie to give her take on where monetary policy is right now and you’ll find some of her observations contradict the consensus. The Fed, for example, she thinks will move later and are unlikely to see through the three cuts markets are expecting. The ECB, meanwhile, have every reason to cut sooner. Longer term she thinks interest rates around 3 percent will be healthier for a growing economy.

Listen into a wide-ranging discussion covering Europe, the US, China and the influence of Trump.

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Thursday 28th March 2024

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A early Easter this year is creating the potential for extra volatility the last day or two of the quarter. Even though the Core PC deflator numbers are out at the end of the week, the markets are closed on Friday. That means markets finish the quarter still speculating on the direction inflation is taking. Adding to the volatility is the question about how much intervention we can expect from Japanese authorities as the Yen fell to its lowest level since 1990. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the days action and looks bac at yesterday’s Australian CPI, as well a s highlighting a new JBWere report looking at the shift in wealth to Australian women. We also look ahead to this afternoon’s Weekend Edition.

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Wednesday 27th March 2024

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It’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through those moves, some of the softer data out f the US and looks ahead to Australia’s CPI today, explaining why this release is more useful than the last. And breaking the glass? Hear comments from on member of the Bank of Canada who says they are facing an emergency when it comes to productivity.

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Tuesday 26th March 2024

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The CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official that speculation driving down the Yen will not be tolerated. Meanwhile bond yields in the US and Europe push higher, ahead of inflation data later in the week. Data is light today, but we get consumer confidence data for Australia, Germany and the US (conference board). But as Rodrigo points out, how people feel and what they do are often very different things.

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Monday 25th March 2024

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The CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commentary form Central banks last week. How would you sum it up in one word, asks Phil? Later? No, quite the reverse says Taylor. Particularly in the UK. Although ‘later’ still applies to the RBA and perhaps, to the FOMC. It’s a quiet, short week, but a lot off the key data emanates from Australia, including CPI on Wednesday.

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Friday 22nd March 2024

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Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are economic consequences – good and bad. It has alleviated some of the tightness in the labour market, but its also added to inflation pressures. Phil asks, without it, how well would the economy be faring? Looking ahead the picture is complicated. On this week’s podcast we look at how international demand is not matched by the domestic appetite for higher education, despite the government’s aims to increase the numbers and diversity of students. Plus, how are educators coping with new regulations aimed at clamping down on those cheating the system to gain access to work in Australia?

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Friday 22nd March 2024

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Equity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest meeting. In fact, one central bank did cut rates overnight. But what about the impacts of local data yesterday. Was the Australia unemployment number too low for the RBA, and the NZ GDP read too soft for the RBNZ?

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Thursday 21st March 2024

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Inflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of England. UK inflation yesterday was a little weaker than expected. But not enough to change the dial at the BoE. Services inflation remains persistently high. Also today, GDP for New Zealand and Australia’s employment numbers. So, what would the RBA like to see today?

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Wednesday 20th March 2024

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With the RBA and bank of Japan out of the way, markets are readying themselves for the FOMC tomorrow, with yields drifting a little lower today in anticipation. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA has removed its tightening bias – now, nothing is ruled out or in. The next move is expected to be down, but the question that remains is when? The bank of Japan lifted themselves out of negative interest rates, as expected, but Ken says they did a good job of dampening any expectations of a rigorous tightening cycle. Tomorrow, the FOMC meets, with the focus on the dots plot – how many and what will be the endpoint? 

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Tuesday 19th March 2024

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Two central banks meet today, but the outcomes seem predictable. The end of negative rates by the Bank of Japan seems to have been well signalled, and the RBA continues its restrictive policy settings. NAB’s Skye Masters says we continue to look to November as the first possible rate cut in Australia. Meanwhile bond yields in the UW continue to push higher, ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Phil asks if 2-year yields could push as high as 5%. Elsewhere, positive data from China yesterday, the ZEW survey for Europe today and Canada’s inflation print. 

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Monday 18th March 2024

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This week we hear the interest rate decisions from the RBA, the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, Norge’s Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Will any of them move rates? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at what to expect and when, including the growing possibility that we’ll see a lift in rates and an end to yield curve control by the BoJ. Generally, though, the tone seems to be higher for longer as many indicators are showing inflation is taking a while to get under control.

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Friday 18th March 2024

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A pandemic, water shortages, labour supply issues, the cost of finance, China’s slow recovery, climate change. It seems like the agricultural sector faces massive headwinds, but NAB’s Lea Jurkovic says there’s still an immense amount of optimism within the sector, with plenty of upside potential in Australia’s export markets. That optimism is shared by Lachlan Marshall, who runs the Yurunga Farms Partnership, a diary and cattle operation near Deniliquin. He joins Phil and Lea to talk about how he is using mechanisation and data to drive efficiencies, that enhance the productivity and long-term viability of his farm. “I’m scaling up to thrive rather than survive, he says on this week’s Weekend Edition.

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Friday 15th March 2024

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Reality is starting to bite. Pesky inflation is taking longer to come down, even as other data is showing slower economic growth. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its only one day, but stronger producer prices and slower retail growth is your classic stagflation data print. It’s clearly too early to make that call, but markets are worried, with equities taking a hit and expectations falling further for a rate cut in June. Bond yields have oved markedly higher, although oil prices are rising as the IEA forecasts stronger demand this year, which hardly fits the stagflation argument. But clearly, whatever the outcome, it’s taking longer to get there!

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Wednesday 13th March 2024

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Another big auction overnight showed strong appetite from investors for long-dated US bonds. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the resilience in US data refuses to give up and the timeline for when the Fed will cut rates continues to get pushed back. Markets are not even fully pricing a cut in June now and there’s the question as to whether the Fed dot plot next week will drop to two cuts this year. Meanwhile, expectations are rising for a rate rise by the BoJ next week, as wage negotiations in Japan show many workers are seeing pay rises in excess of 5 percent. Gavin talks through the likely impacts on currency markets.

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Wednesday 13th March 2024

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US inflation came in hotter than expected ion data out overnight, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was only marginally above expectations, rounding just makes it seem worth. It’s not changing expectations for a June cut, he says. The NAB Business Survey provided more signs of why the RBA isn’t in any rush to cut rates, with a reacceleration in business conditions. We also discuss what was said by the RBA’s Sarah Hunter yesterday, the weakness in UK jobs and a Bloomberg story that has the BoJ on the cusp of lifting rates.

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Tuesday 12th March 2024

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US CPI is out today. A core monthly read of 0.3 percent is expected. JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s too high to meet the Fed’s target so we’ll need to see CPI down to 0.2 percent over successive months before they can be certain they are on track. Japan’s GDP growth was lower than expected, although the country is now officially out of recession, but only by the tiniest margin. Could the BoJ really be planning rate hikes in such an environment? Iron ore prices took a hit overnight, whilst gold and Bitcoin are at or near all time highs. There’s clearly a lot of uncertainty out there.

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Monday 11th March 2024

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US payrolls data was initially a surprise on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was an initial algo-driven market response, before the human s stepped in on realising that substantial downward revisions in the previous two months meant jobs data was weaker than anticipated. Hence, expectations for a June cut haven’t really shifted. Canada’s employment data, which was higher, passed by with little fanfare. China’s inflation numbers were a surprise over the weekend, coming in at the highest month on month level in a year. Japan’s GDP read is expected to be revised higher today, but the biggest influence on the BoJ strategy will come later this week with the early results of spring wage negotiations.

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Friday 18th March 2024

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You would be right in assuming that equality for women is less prevalent in Japan than it is in Australia. There are 200 listed companies on the Nikkei who don’t have a single female board member. But things are changing. Melanie Brock is an Australian who has lived in Tokyo for 25 years, helping businesses invest and partner in Japan. She serves on four boards, having just been appointed to Asahi Group Holdings. Today she talks through the challenges women face, but also why the economy depends on the career advancement of women. And there’s at least one lesson Australian businesses can learn from Japan about how to advance diversity in the workforce.

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Friday 8tth March 2024

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NAB’s Gavin Friend says you only need to look at the falls we’ve been experiencing in yields lately to recognise that there’s a renewed acceptance that rates will be cut, probably by the middle of the year, in the US and Europe. At the ECB meeting Christine Lagarde talked about good progress being made on bringing down inflation, as they released a downgraded inflation forecast. In front of the sente Banking Committee in the US Jerome Powell talked about not being far from having the confidence to cut rates. That’s why all eyes are back on June. Of course, a surprise result in non-farm payrolls tonight could easily change all that.

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Thursday 7tth March 2024

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The Aussie dollar has led the major sin currency gains today. NAB’s Skye Masters says it follows a fall n the US dollar, with the DXY at its lowest level in over a month. The rise in the Aussie happened despite a lacklustre GDP report for Australia, although the results won’t change the dial on RBA timings. The BoC kept rates on hold and gave no timing on when cuts will happen. The message everywhere – including in Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee – is that more reassurance is need that inflation is heading sustainably lower. That’ll almost certainly be the message delivered at the press conference after the ECB meeting early tomorrow morning (Australia time).

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Wednesday 6tth March 2024

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The US ISM services index showed a larger than expected slowdown. As NAB’s ray Attrill describes, that’s driven interest in bonds, helped by another fall in US equities, driven by falls in tech stocks. Here’s also been a rise in Bitcoin and gold, both hitting record highs. Interestingly, the services PMIs for Europe were generally a little better than expected. So does any of this change the timeline for anticipated cuts by the Fed and ECB? Today, Australia’s Q4 GDP is the big number to watch, along with the US job openings numbers. And get the popcorn ready for the results from Super Tuesday, but I think we know who wins.

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Tursday 4th March 2024

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US shares have taken a rest for now. Perhaps a $1.8 billion fine on Apple over music streaming has reminded big tech investor that regulators have power. Today, NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact of yesterday’s GDP partials for Australia, much of it driven by mining, with lower inventories and higher corporate profits. The Peoples Congress is underway in China today, with reports suggesting Xi Jinping will confirm that the growth target for 2024 remains at 5 percent. The US releases its PMI Services number today, but the market is really hanging out for Friday’s non-farm payrolls. It’s Super Tuesday in the US today, but we already know who is going to win, for each side of politics.

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Monday 4th March 2024

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The US Manufacturing ISM was weaker than expected don Friday, with new orders, production and employment all contracting. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether this accounts for a fall in front end yields on Friday and whether its impacted expectations for the timing of the first Fed rate cut. In Europe the latest CPI numbers show inflation is coming down more slowly than expected, ahead of the ECB meeting this week. Could this push back the timing for cuts? It’s a quiet start to a busy week – a week that includes US non-farm payrolls and Services ISM, Australia’s GDP and a House testimony for Jerome Powell.

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Friday 1st March 2024

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This week Kate Griffiths from the Grattan Institute warns that the recent budget surplus is hiding the fact that the long-term balance between Australia’s tax intake and the expectations for government spending don’t stack up. As the population ages and the ratio of those in work reduces, the tax base will narrow whilst demand for aged services will expand. Kate argues the case for a roader tax system, less reliant on income tax as the main source of government revenue. Phil asks hat tax reform should set out to address. Is it just about increasing revenue, or is wealth redistribution just as important? And what about the tax efficiency. How many tax loopholes need to disappear. Then there’s taxes with unintended detrimental consequences. There’s a lot to consider.

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Friday 1st March 2024

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Markets were relieved that the US PCE deflators came in in-line with expectations. But, as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, the six-month annualised rate is ticking up a little, hence the desire by th Fed to see more data before committing to rate cuts. Ion a busy episode today we look at European inflation, Australian retail sales, house prices, Canada’s GDP and words from one BoJ governor suggesting the time is right to lift rates.

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Thursday 29th February 2024

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Markets responded sharply to the RBNZ hold decision yesterday, even though it was largely expected. The tone from the press conference that followed left most assuming there would be no more hikes, even if it’ll take a while for rates to come down. NaAB's Ken Crompton talks through how the markets reacted. He also suggests an above-consensus bounce back in Australian retail numbers today. US core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – is also expected to lift a little, whilst US GDP was revised down ever so slightly. And happy leap day! 

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Wednesday 28th February 2024

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Japan’s inflation is down, but not quite as much as expected. That’s raised expectation from some that the BoJ will use this as a reason to lift rates. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether they need to. Japanese exports seem to be benefiting from a lower Yen right now. Meanwhile US equities have plateaued. Warren Buffet described it as a casino, suggesting investors focused on stocks that it would be hard to imagine doing without. Like coca cola. Vested interest perhaps? Today the focus is on what the RBNZ does. NAB and BNZ are not expecting a rate rise, but the language at the press conference should be interesting. Inflation is proving troublesome.

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Tuesday 27th February 2024

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Tomorrow is looking a lot more interesting than today, with Australian CPI and the RBNZ. Overnight though, we had more talk from the ECB, including a curious comment from the Bank of Greece Governor, seemingly reinforcing the suggestion that June is the month for cutting. Today we see CPI numbers for Japan, but it’s unlikely to influence the timing of any moves by the BoJ, should they ever move. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of that, plus the outcome of bond auctions in the US overnight, with yields pushing a little higher.

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Friday 23rd February 2024

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Central bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wants more persistent evidence that inflationary pressures have dissipated, even though the German economy shank by 0.2 percent last year. And there’s the outside chance that he RBNZ will lift rates this week, although that seems unlikely. Meanwhile Australian CPI and retail sales this week will be waited for with anticipation by the RBA. So, when it comes to rate cuts, it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. Trivia question: who said that?

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Friday 23rd February 2024

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The US has been enjoying healthy share prices and a market preparing for lower interest rates, with the much-vaunted soft landing. But how much of this good will could disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year? The FT’s Katie Martin says markets haven’t been preparing much just yet because, well, it may not happen. But there’s also the question of how big the gap is between what Trump says he’ll do and what eventuates. Katie suggests corporate America will advise him of the consequences if he were to push ahead with a 55% tariff on all Chinese imports. We can assume he will be far less supportive of green initiatives. We also know he tends to measure economic success by share market performance. The unknown element is his approach to foreign policy. That might mean it'll be time to derisk.

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Friday 23rd February 2024

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The caution we’ve been seeing in the US share market has dissolved completely since the release of NVIDIA earnings yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the euphoria has even spread as far as Japan. But is too much good news taken by the Fed as another reason to delay rate cuts? You could also question whether the ECB will delay longer than June. The minutes of their last meeting note the risk of cutting too early if greater than the risk of a delay. Today the diary is light, with retail sales for New Zealand the focus. A weak result would surely remove the chance of a hike by the RBNZ next week?

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Thursday 22nd February 2024

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The FOMC minutes this morning didn’t provide many surprises, except warning that inflation could pick up and more evidence was needed. All reasons to delay cuts until, possibly June. Meanwhile, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the ECB has almost committed verbally to a June cut. Now we’re seeing louder voices inside the BoE warning that delaying cuts will have harmful impacts on the economy, which has the potential to also move to a June cut. No such luck with the RBA though. Yesterday’s wage inflation data, even though it came in almost as expected, it’s still too high for the policy makers to feel comfortable. 

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Wednesday 21st February 2024

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Canada’s latest inflation rate came in lower than expected overnight, prompting the inevitable speculation about an earlier cut from the Bank of Canada. April perhaps? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether this means they’ll be the first major central bank to move lower, as others seem to be pushing expectations back a little. Although UK gilt yields dropped after the BoE’s Andrw Bailey said to a government hearing that market expectations for a rate cut this year are not unreasonable. Today Australia’s wage rice index is released. NAB expects it to come in line with RBA forecasts, but we’ll see.

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Tueday 20th February 2024

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It’s been quieter than quiet the last 24 hours. The US has been off for Presidents Day, and elsewhere only glacial movements in bonds and currencies. Why? Well, as Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton, its because there’s not much in the way of data releases to move markets along, those that are open. On eof the strongest currencies was the New Zealand dollar, that saw a slightly stronger than expected PSI read yesterday. Ahead we have the RBA minutes and Canada’s CPI to look forward to. Beyond that, we’re clutching at straws a bit!

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Monday19th February 2024

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There was some dismissing of the US CPI numbers last week as not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But the producer prices on Friday, which do input into the Fed’s preferred Core PCE number, also showed prices ticking higher in January. Evidence of the bumpy path that the Fed’s Michael Barr was talking about on Thursday, perhaps? But NAB’s Taylor Nugent says, as with the CPI numbers, seasonally adjusting January’s numbers is notoriously difficult. In any case, we won’t see further market reaction in the US today because its Presidents Day holiday. So, a quiet start to a week which includes the latest flash PMIs and Australia’s wage price index.

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Friday 16th February 2024

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In the consumer space there are only really two ways tech firms make money. They either sell stuff – usually subscriptions – or they offer free content supported by advertising. Advertising is as old as the hills so you might be mistaken for thinking that its days are numbered. But Debra Aho Williamson, an independent tech analyst from Seattle, says online will continue to grow its share of an expanding global advertising market, and AI will help improve the efficacy of the budget of advertisers. But advertising isn’t the only way forward and each of the major tech firms has their own approach. Listen in to the discussion to help gather your own thoughts on who is in the strongest position right now. 

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Thursday 15th February 2024

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There have been some surprises in the last 24 hours but it seems none of it will change the dial for central banks. Australia’s unemployment ticked above 4% yesterday, but JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why you have to be cautious about January numbers and why it doesn’t really add to the pressure for the RBA to cut sooner. The latest GDP numbers in the UK, which showed the country has been in recession for the last two quarters, but the BoE was quick to respond on the need to see inflation falling more consistently before they act. Japan also moved into a recession which surely challenges the notion that the BoJ will lift rates. And US retail sales showed the biggest fall in almost a year. So, lots of data, but nothing to change central bank thinking.

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Thursday 15th February 2024

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Central banks seem to be sounding a little more dovish, with the exception of the RBA and RBNZ of course. NAB’s Ray Attrill says market expectations are driving away from the higher-than-expected US CPI read, like a speeding car. Hence, bond yields have bounced back today. They rose even further in the UK where inflation came in lower than expected. With GDP numbers later likely to show an economy in recession, can the BoE really hold out much longer? It’s a movable feast, and in the midst of that movement NAB has released the latest FX forecasts, which effectively pushes the growth in the Aussie dollar back a quarter, against a stronger US dollar. But there are a few significant caveats, discussed on today’s podcast.

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Wednesday 14th February 2024

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US CPI numbers showed that inflation isn’t coming down as fast as expected. The market reaction was swift as markets repriced their expectations for the timing of rate cuts. Equites fell sharply, bond yields rose as the US dollar gained ground.. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are good reasons not to take too much signal from the January data alone. Perhaps the exercise will be repeated with UK inflation numbers later today although there a small rise is already expected. Today New Zealand’s price indices will give an early indication of inflation, as the market pares back rate hike expectations after the surprising call by (another) major bank this week.

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Tuesday 13th February 2024

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Maybe not as exciting as the Super Bowl, but the CPI numbers out in the US early tomorrow morning (Australia time) could have a more significant impact on the US economy and the speed of cuts from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the headline rate is expected to start with a 2, instead of a 3, but will it fall faster than expected putting pressure on the Fed to move more quickly. Ahead of all that, we get the NAB Business Survey, the ZEW survey results for Germany and the Eurozone, and employment numbers for the UK. At last, the data calendar is hotting up.

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Monday 12th February 2024

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Talk about an anti-climax! Markets were on tenterhooks ahead of the revision to US CPI on Friday but, it turns out, there was nothing to see. NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out that the revision was one basis point higher for the three-month average. Now markets can focus on the next CPI print, which is out this week. Friday’s excitement in our region came from one bank’s call for the RBNZ to raise rates in February and April. Michelle Bullock didn’t rule out a rate rise for the RBA when she fronted up to parliament on Friday, but it seems unlikely. It’s a quiet start to the week, with China on holiday for the New Year, but Tapas takes us through some of the data highlights for later in the week. 

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Friday 9th February 2024

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Australian tourism was enjoying record highs for visitor numbers before the pandemic. Then we closed the borders. Visitor arrivals are picking up again, but are still not back to 2019 levels. But Samantha Palmer, general manager of Austrade’s visitor economy and client programs division, says we’ll break that record for visitor numbers in 2025 and exceed the spend record this year. That makes tourism infrastructure a solid investment promotion. But what sort of product is required and how can you finance all that upfront investment when a brand-new offering could take a while to provide cash returns? 

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Friday 9th February 2024

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The Fed and several other central banks are united in their message that there’s no rush to cut rates. Thomas Barkin was the latest to deliver the message from the FOMC, suggesting they won’t ‘toggle’ rates until they’ve had a few more months of data. Meanwhile, NAB’s Skye masters says as we await more data bonds are drifting, looking for direction. There will be some trepidation about the possibility of a revision to US CPI numbers later and there are more solid numbers to help support whatever side of the timing of the toggle you sit on.

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Thursday 8th February 2024

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Once again central bankers have been out pushing the message that rates will not be coming down quickly. What’s more, the neutral rate is likely to be higher than before. There was a lacklustre response from bond markets, which managed to absorb $2 billon worth of new issuance. The market moves have been in equities, with the S&P close to, but not quite hitting - 5,000. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this is misplaced optimism. 

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Wednesday 7th February 2024

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It was a busy day for Australia yesterday, with the RBA announcement, the statement of monetary policy, and the press conference. For all of that there wasn’t any wild fluctuations in markets, despite the hawkish tilt and the spectre of a rate rise given as one possible course of action if services inflation remains too resilient. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, most of the market action was in US bond markets, where yields fell significantly overnight. It’s the lack of tier one data, says \gavin, driving speculation. 

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Tuesday 6th February 2024

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Stronger than expected ISM services data yesterday has dampened further the likelihood of a March rate cut. Meanwhile, China is taking more steps to stem the outflow from equity markets. Australia, meanwhile, readies itself for the first RBA announcement of 2024. But its not just an announcement, it’s the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy and a press conference. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks us through this new look RBA performance and why it could prove to be choppier for bond and currency markets.

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Monday 5th February 2024

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US payrolls numbers on Friday showed a surprisingly large upswing, mirroring the ADP numbers earlier in the week. The data also showed a higher-than-expected increase in wages. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this puts paid to any hopes of a March rate cut, with the first fully priced cut expected in June. He adds there’s a chance that inflation data could be revised up a little later this week. The BoE’s Huw Pill meanwhile has been promoting the need to wait longer before cutting, adding to the underperformance of Gilts on Friday. It’s a quiet start to the week, but the main interest locally is obviously the RBA tomorrow, with the rates announcement coinciding with the publication of the Statement of Monetary Policy, followed by a press conference by Michele Bullock. A lot to take in. 

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Friday 2nd February

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Sydney and Melbourne property prices are down from their peaks, whilst Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth reached all time highs last month. But for how long? Will Sydney and Melbourne bounce back? Phil talks to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research about recent trends in the property market which, despite everything, continues to enjoy rising prices, but for how long? What impact is migration having on demand for dwellings in Sydney and Melbourne. What’s driving the widening gap between house prices and apartments? And what are the trends Eliza thinks we’ll see this year that might surprise you. Even if you are not a property investor, or considering a housing purchase, this is compulsory listening for anyone gathering ammunition for Australia’ favourite dinner party conversation – house prices!

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Friday 2nd February 2024

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It wasn’t a unanimous decision by the Bank of England overnight. Some of the board wanted to lift rates, the majority wanted to hold, but there was one who still wanted to push them higher. All in all a March cut is now extremely unlikely according to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says those pricing in 100bp of cuts this year have probably got it wrong. We also look at the fed’s decision, one day on. Shares are higher and bond yields lower, so it seems the prospect of delays in cuts hasn’t phased the markets too much. The latest ISM report painted a slightly more optimistic picture for US manufacturing, but prices remain a concern. Wages will be watched keenly, of course, in the non-farm payrolls out on Friday in the US. Jerome Powell said this week he was looking for more “good data” – maybe this will be one of those reports.

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Thursday 1st February 2023

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At the FOMC today a unanimous decision was made to keep rates on hold, but there was suggestion that they’d be cutting rates anytime soon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says this will dent the optimism of those hoping for a lower rate in March. Australia’s inflation numbers yesterday are also unlikely to change the stance of the RBA next month. The Bank of England meets later today – three of the nine board members voted for a hike last time. 

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Wednesday 31st January 2024

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We are less than 24 hours away from the next FOMC meeting. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says an indication that the Fed was dropping its tightening bias would help validate the higher expectations for cuts in market pricing. But will it happen? Even though inflation is falling, consumer confidence is also on the rise and there are more than 9 million jobs looking for employees. Also today we discuss Australia’s retail numbers yesterday, what we can expect in today’s CPI and the latest forecasts from the IMF, which paints a slightly rosier picture in their latest World Economic Outlook. 

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Tuesday 30th January 2024

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For all the delaying tactics of central bank speakers, markets are still pricing cuts earlier for the fed and the ECB. So who goes first? NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a two-horse race, although markets are pricing in early cuts in Europe. That could all change, of course, depending on what’s said by the FOMC tomorrow. Europe’s destiny will be somewhat shaped by it’s GDP numbers today, which are expected top show that the Euro area is in recession. There’s also discussion about Australia’s retail numbers out today, which are expected to show a fall in December in response to the bounce in sales (because of sales) in November.

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Monday 29th January 2024

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You want busy, we’ll give you busy.The FOMC and the Bank of England meet this week and five of the magnificent 7 report earnings. We’ll also see the latest Australian CPI read and payrolls data from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to catch up on data from the tail end of last week, which saw US core-PCE dip below 3%, whilst European data continues to show more of a downturn, with signs that the ECB may be changing its tune on waiting till June to cut rates.

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Thursday 25th January 2024

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By and large investors will have seen slim returns from Australian equities in 2023, but they would have made far more from US shares and, in particular, the magnificent seven. So, does the same apply for this year? Phil asks Gemma Dale, Director of SMSF and Investor Behaviour at nabtrade, who says 2023 wasn’t too bad when you factor in dividends. But 2024 could be better. Rates are coming down at some point, bond yields are falling and, you’d hope, the consumer will have more cash to spend. All of that, you’d assume, points to a rosier picture for equity investors, but which sectors will do the best?

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Thursday 25th January 2024

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Theres a more risk positive mood this morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its being driven by moves in China to drive an economic recovery, including a half percent cut in the reserve requirement ratio for lenders. There’s been more attention ,though, to talk of a (long awaited) fiscal stimulus. Japan’s currency moved higher as investors mulled over the commentary form the bank of Japan, suggested a move into positive rates was looking more likely. Whilst the Bank of Canada highlighted that the days of rate rises are over for now, without giving any timeline for cuts. In PMIs Europe showed further weakness against US strength. Another reason for the ECB to cut rates sooner rather than later, but few expect that to happen at tomorrow’s meeting.

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Wednesday 24th January 2024

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The Aussie dollar gained a bit of ground briefly yesterday on reports of China launching a rescue package to placate their retail investors, with shares now the furthest they’ve ever been behind the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a question mark as to whether they are addressing the symptoms rather than the root cause. The European economy has had more bad news, with loan data showing companies still are not borrowing, whilst consumer confidence is falling. Is the ECB wrong to consider delaying cuts till June? Today’s PMIs will shed some light on what has been a widening chasm between US and European economic health.

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Tuesday 23rd Janaury 2024

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US equities hit new highs again overnight, reflecting the optimism for an economy that’ s beating inflation and escaping recession. Even the continuance of weak data and pessimism for the Chinese economy is failing t impact US ebullience. NAB Skye Masters says bond markets were more contained, reflecting a day light on news or data prints. There’s not expected to be a policy change fr the Bank of Japan today, but there is a press conference and we get to see revised quarterly forecasts which could help determine when or if there will be future policy changes. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today.

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Mondaay 22nd January 2024

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The S&P hit its first high since January 2022 on Friday, driven largely by the major tech stocks. Phil asks whether there’s just too much exuberance? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s an important week for tech earnings this week, including Netflix, Tesla and IBM. US positivity was also reflected in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which came in much higher than expectations. The UK and Europe are on a very different trajectory, with a significant fall in retail sales in December possibly leading the economy into a recession. This week Athony Albanese is expected to announce further stimulus measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis which could delay the speed of rate cuts by the RBA. The detail is expected to be ironed out before his National Press Club address on Thursday.

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Friday 19th January 2024

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Our guest on the Weekend Edition this week says Bitcoin started as an anarchic response to the rapidly rising quantity of Fiat currencies. UK economist and writer Frances Coppola still believes the value of Bitcoin is tied to the policies of central banks, particularly when it comes to cycles of QE and QT. But does it really? Many argued it was a hedge against inflation, but that never came to pass. So what changes with Bitcoin now the USD regulator has cleared the way for ETF’s to offer the chance for regular investors to easily buy or sell out of Bitcoin linked securities? Is it now a more respectable investment choice? Will it lose its volatility? And, if it does, what’s the point of it?

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Friday 19th January 2024

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US bond yields continue to push higher as the expectation for delayed cuts mounts. The weekly jobless claims will help the Fed’s case here, with a surprise fall showing how tight the labour market still is. But these are volatile numbers, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, particularly over the holiday period. The same applies to the surprise drop in Australian employment numbers yesterday, although the trend is still showing a rise and there’s nothing to change the RBA’s path for now. Plus, peace hopes for the Middle east and a preview of our first Weekend edition of 2024.

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Thursday 18th January 2024

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Markets are pricing more and more for delays in rate cuts. NAB’S Ken Crompton says even with pricing for cuts of 13bp in February that still shows some “irrational exuberance”. The expectations for delays in rate cuts follow Christopher Wallers comments earlier in the week that, with the economy seemingly in good health, why the rush? That view was supported by a range of positive data releases, including retail sales growth continuing into December. In the uK markets were a little surprised by a rebound in UK inflation, delaying chances of cuts by the BoE. In Australia NAB has revised its expectation for a rate rise by the RBA, but there’s a chance that it will stick with its current rate to the tail end of the year.

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Wednesday 17th January 2024

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Bond yields have ushed higher in the US after the Fed’s Christopher Waller made a speech on the economic outlook at The Brookings Institute, called ‘Almost as Good as it Gets, but will it last?’. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he appeared less dovish than anticipated, hence expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back. Now the question is, will any central banks be cutting in the first half of this year? Today we look at the latest European data, the UK’s muddy employment numbers, as well as looking ahead to a busy 24 hours, with a swathe of China data, UK inflation and US retail number.

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Tuesday 16th January 2024

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German GDP fell 0.3% last year, even if they did manage to narrowly avoid a technical recession. Europe’s industrial production also fell in the latest data. Yet ECB members continue to talk down expectations for rate cuts at least until the middle of the year. Phil asks JBWere's Sally Auld about the wisdom of keeping rates higher in an economy that is slowing, and does that explain why markets are out of kilter with the central banks rhetoric?. In the US there will be a air bit of focus on what the Feed’s Christopher Waller has to say on rate cuts. There’s also discussion about why the PBoC didn’t cut their medium-term lending facility. Data wise we see Australia’ s consumer confidence today, along with UK wage data, Canada’s CPI and NZ’s quarterly survey of business opinion. Plus the results of the Iowa Caucus.

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Monday 15th January 2024

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There were big falls in 2 year Treasury yields on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this can be attributed to softer than expected producer prices in the US, which feeds through to the PCE deflator number that the Fed uses as its inflation measure. So what has this done to rate cut expectations? Ray says we’re still not back to where we were in the lead up to Christmas. Inflation is coming down much more slowly in Europe. Will it be delayed further by the crisis in the Red Sea? China published weaker loans data at the end of the week, and the PBoC is expected to lower the medium-term loan rate today. We’ll also see whether there’s any response from China to the Taiwan election result whilst the US holds the first Republican Caucus, in Iowa, where Trump is well ahead in the polls.

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Friday 12th January 2024

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US inflation was a little bit of a surprise. Whilst the headline rate was expected to rise a little, it came in higher than forecast, whilst the core rate didn’t fall as much as had been hoped for. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the Fed’s super core measure is the part of the inflation picture that refuses to come down, all of which could impact the speed at which the Fed will bring rates down. Meanwhile NAB has revised the forecast for Q4 CPI for Australia on the back of this week’s November data. It provides a CPI rate lower than the RBA’s forecast, so does that mean we can expect rates in Australia come down faster? 

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Thursday 11th January 2024

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Australian inflation fell faster than expected in November. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent what this means for the rate path from the RBA. He says the monthly data is a relatively new indicator and is still volatile, so we should be cautious in interpreting the numbers and certainly there wasn’t anything to make the RBA too comfortable. We can expect a more definitive market response to US CPI later on. If the number falls below consensus and highlights potential for a faster cutting cycle from the Fed expect that to drive the US dollar lower.

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Wednesday 10th January 2024

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Markets have started the year rather cautiously. Bond yields have held up and equity markets are clearly nervous, suggesting many investors are questioning the speed of the path to rate cuts, particularly in the US. Could Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls read last Friday add to the case for delays by the Fed? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests the markets might be too cautious. We also look at yesterday’s retail numbers for Australia and expectations for the November inflation read out this morning.

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Friday 22nd December 2023

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In our final edition of The Morning Call for the year JBWeir’s Sally Auld joins Phil to look back about the surprises of 2023, and to give some of her predictions for 2024. Few expected interest rates to rise as high as they did, but even so, there was a lot of recession talk. Yet, somehow, we avoided it, with much greater expectations for a soft landing. So, is that the story for 2024? Perhaps, but Sally springs five potential wildcards on us that we should have in the back of our minds. 2024 is certainly not going to be a year low on risk. 

This is our last Morning Call of the year. Thank you for joining us each weekday, and we hope you’ve enjoyed the addition of the Weekend Edition. We’ll be back on Wednesday 10th January ready to interpret whatever the new year throws at us. 

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Friday 22nd December 2023

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Well, you could argue that if the US wants to get inflation down to 2% that its already there. Why? NAB’s Ray Attrill points out that the latest quarterly PCE read – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – has been revised down to an annual figure that falls within their target range. The monthly number for November, out tonight, could well reinforce this argument and add more weight for rate cuts early in 2024. In other news, Joe Biden has been discussing increased tariffs on the import of EVs from China. Australia could feel the repercussions of that and could be one factor stopping the Aussie dollar reaching 70 US cents anytime soon. Today, Japan’s CPI and the latest revision to UK GDP. Just like the US numbers, could they also be a downward surprise and reopen recession speculation?

This is our last daily edition until January 10th, but this afternoon JBWeir’s Sally Auld gives her thoughts on where we’ve been this year and the prospects for 2024. To be listened to at your leisure over the Christmas break.

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Thursday 21st December 2023

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UK inflation fell much faster than expected and more than the Bank of England predicted. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says its clear that there will be no more rate hikes in the UK, reflected in markets today with a sharp rise in equities and a significant drop in bond yields. There was another Christmas gift in the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence read which showed heightened optimism for the new year. The only negative sign was, perhaps, a rise in the jobs plentiful index which could arguably delay the fall in wage growth. Meanwhile, the EU is clearly ready to move on from worrying about inflation to focusing on government debt, with finance ministers today agreeing that all member states should return to a debt to GDP ratio of 60%. Good luck with that!

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Wednesday 20th December 2023

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The RBA minutes yesterday were more hawkish than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the central bank is aiming for the mid-point of their 2 – 3 percent target range, rather than the top, raising the prospect of rates staying higher, or a more concerted effort to bring inflation down faster. This adds to the speculation that interest rates will be lifted in February, although a lot will depend, of course, on Q4 CPI, out late in January. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan did and said little and Canada’s core inflation bounced back up a little. A reminder to all that it isn’t beaten yet. 

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Tuesday 19th December 2023

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US bond yield rose higher overnight, along with equities, as the prospect of a slower path of rates cuts by the Fed sinks in. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a settling down after the rally in bonds we’ve seen in the last month or so, helped by more Fed speakers overnight talking down the prospect of early rate cuts next year. In other news, the German IFO reader can be added to the list of releases showing a European slowdown. The focus today will be on the RBA minutes. Skye isn’t sure there will be much to gain beyond the statement earlier in the month, but never say never. The same applies to the Bank of Japan meeting today – they are not expected to lift rates, or give an indication of when they will, but they have provided a pre-Christmas surprise before. 

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Monday 18th December 2023

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The US Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that it was too soon to be looking at rate cuts, despite the FOMC dots plot showing members expecting several cuts next year. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland about Williams’ motivation and the market response. Meanwhile, as data from China remains soft the PBoC is pumping 800 billion Yuan into the economy. Tapas explains the approach and whether it will work. European PMI data came in softer than expected, whilst the UK seems a little more resilient in the services sector. But with a central bank governor reluctant to move too quickly, is stronger data good or bad for Britain?

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Friday 15th December 2023

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When it comes to the use and deployment of AI a Deloitte report reckons many Australian businesses are slow to catch on to the risks and opportunities it presents. This week Phil Dobbie talks to Rhiannon Yetsenga, a manager in the Economic Analysis and Policy team at Deloitte Access Economics, about a recent survey of 2,500 Australian employees and students, which highlights how Generative AI in particular is transforming the workplace.

Rhiannon says, unlike many business transformations, this one is being employee led. Companies need to be aware that it is happening, learn how to manage risk and take advantage of the opportunities it presents, as a first-step to more complex AI projects.

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Friday 15th December 2023

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Whilst the FOMC signalled the likelihood of several rate cuts next year, NAB’s Gavin Friend says the Bank of England and ECB are giving nothing away, with both saying there is more to e done to bring inflation under control. One European bank even managed to slip in a rate rise ahead of Christmas – the Norges Bank pushed rates up to 4.5%, concerned about a rebound in inflation. Markets continue to respond to the dovish FOMC meeting yesterday, even with jobless claims and retail numbers both showing surprising resilience in the US economy. There’s lots more economic data today, including the December flash PMIs for Europe, the UK and US.

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Thursday 14th Decenber 2023

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A Fed that is happy to hold, and is expecting to cut three times next year. That’s the takeout from the FOMC meeting this morning. Markets have responded swiftly, with sharp moves down in the US dollar and bond yields, with the Aussie dollar making the biggest gains this morning. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says yields were already falling on the back of slower rises in producer prices, adding to the evidence that inflation is easing in the US. The Bank of England meets later today, along with the ECB. Both are expected to stay put, with the UK having much lower than expected GDP growth in October. Australia’s employment numbers are released today, after yesterday’s Seek job ads show more labour market easing.

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