The NZ Property Market Podcast

After the short reactionary pod for both the RBNZ Financial Stability Review (FSR), which was pretty stock-standard, and the Q1 labour market stats - which were a little more interesting, this week's pod is shorter than it otherwise would have been. First topic of conversation is the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which provided further more compelling evidence of a struggling housing market, particularly in Auckland (to Nick's surprise). With more time to digest the...

Hot off the press, Nick and (a travelling) Kelvin catch up to quickly give their take on the just-released Financial Stability Report (FSR) from the Reserve Bank and official Labour Market stats for Q1 2024 from Stats NZ.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

One for the hopeful first home buyersIn this guest special, Nick speaks to Geri Fraser and Heiko Jonkers from Westpac. Geri is the Product lead for Housing and Heiko the Social and Affordable Housing Guru!The main topics of interest discuss are the shared equity and leasehold options which are often misunderstood or simply not known about. Listen in to hear about what these options are and how Westpac have dedicated considerable commitment to ensure more New Zealanders can take that first ste...

There’s always plenty to talk about in the property market, but this week’s discussion basically sets the scene for a big week of data and announcements which could potentially mean a meaty pod next Monday!The guys start by discussing the latest Buyer Classification data, which showed that first home buyers (FHBs) remained a key presence in March, and that also ties in to the latest mortgage lending figures from the Reserve Bank. Low deposit lending remains relatively restricted – certainly w...

Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going. Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery. That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sale...

In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins.&nb...

The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the a...

Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the re...

This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus. The International Monetary ...

The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro econom...

On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac. Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years. Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking. Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their...

Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release. Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.Outside of that, ...

This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young. Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance. Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to proble...

This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and ...

Clearly the hottest topic this week is whether or not the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate at 2pm Wednesday (28th February). The guys give their takes on this issue, and ultimately, even if the OCR isn’t increased this week, a further rise down the track remains a possibility. Inflation isn’t dead yet!Meanwhile, the discussion of recent data is focused on our latest NZ Housing Chart Pack, which highlighted a very slow start to the year for property sales activity, and the NZ Act...

Quite a bit of the data over the past week has reiterated the idea that this recovery, while ongoing, could prove to be patchy/variable/uneven – or whichever synonym you like.According to the latest CoreLogic Report, affordability has improved on some measures since 2021, but not on others – e.g. mortgage payments as a % of gross average household income are still 49%. And most measures actually got a little worse again in Q4 2023 as house prices started to rise.Recent data on property sales ...

At face value, a rise in unemployment could never be a good thing …. but as the guys discuss this week, it’s a bit more nuanced than that.For a start, last week’s rise in the unemployment rate wasn’t driven by job losses, but instead a larger increase in the pool of available workers. And a 4% unemployment rate is still very low anyway. Those are the ‘good’ things.But on the flipside, could the smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment actually lead to another increase in the official cash r...

This week, Nick chats to Paulette Trotter, director and advisor at Loan Market Auckland, who was the number 1 mortgage advisor in NZ in 2023.Paulette's experience in the industry is vast and hugely successful. In this discussion Paulette discusses how the property market has kicked off in 2024, with first home buyers remaining a consistent presence. She speaks about some of the differences across the Auckland market, including interest in new build properties and the relative importance ...

The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the ...

More heat across the country and plenty of data to talk about this week too, starting with the latest inflation figures for Q4 2023.The CPI/inflation trend is definitely in the right direction, but with domestic/non-tradable prices such as rents and council rates still a bit problematic, the OCR isn’t likely to be cut in the near term. But cuts are possibly on the cards for the second half of the year, with some falls in shorter term fixed mortgage rates also likely.With the dust settling on ...

This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article. Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although t...

We're back for 2024 and it's straight into a look back at data releases so far this year. Firstly the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 2023 showed cost inflation is moderating (not declining) and with building consent data for November to also discuss there's a bit of time given to preview the health and prospects for the construction industry.Jobs growth data from Stats NZ is also reviewed - still a key underpinning factor for the housing market, while the latest RBNZ relea...

In rounding out the year, there's coverage of the Best of the Best report, the upcoming chart pack and the now-live monthly video.Plus, amongst a number of data releases there were a couple of RBNZ papers to discuss. Topics covered today:MigrationRental price growthGDP economic data for Q3REINZ HPISales volumesLoan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) regulationsDebt-to-income (DTI) restrictionsPlus, Nick joined The Weekend Collective Radio Show on Saturday for their regular one our property focus o...

Call it what you will, this week it's all about money, and it's importance when it comes to the property market. Kicked off, due to Kelvin's article on the 10 things to know about mortgage debt right now, Nick and Kelvin detail how the cost and availability of credit truly make the property world go around. This is true for investors, first home buyers and other owner occupiers moving house as affordability remains squeezed due to high prices and high interest rates. Nick takes the oppor...

Today, Nick chats to Rodney King, Mortgage Advisor for Loan Market Agile, based out of Christchurch.Rodney has been in the Banking and Finance industry for a number of years and has exceptional experience in finding the right bank or lender for every type of borrower. In a wide ranging chat, Nick and Rodney cover off the current market dynamics, weighing up the impact of the new Government and the RBNZ's monetary policy decisions. First home buyers are a regular topic of interest bu...

Two key releases were out last week, with the first being the last Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the year from the RBNZ. As covered in Kelvin's MPS commentary, it was more about tough talk, not action, with the OCR on hold, but an increase to the forecast peak. "No tolerance for inflation surprises" summarises the RBNZ's take right now, hence the warning shot across the bow. The other important data updated was the CoreLogic HPI release which reaffirmed the recovery in action, incl...

Following the confirmation of the Sixth National Government of NZ Nick and Kelvin delve into the policy agreements (and disagreements) and probable implications.They cover the ruling out of the foreign buyer tax, the (faster) reinstatement of interest cost deductibility, the (likely) shortening of the bright-line test, changes to the tenancy laws and the modification of the RBNZ mandate to focus solely on price stability (inflation).Elsewhere, Kelvin re-summarises the release of the CoreLogic...

The latest Corelogic Pain & Gain report always provides an interesting lens to look through the market with and this quarter is no different. On top of the usual comparisons, Nick and Kelvin take the time to look back a bit further to analyse any differences to previous downturns - spoiler alert, it's quite different this time around.Other topics for discussion this week include the latest migration release from Stats NZ and also rental data. The RBNZ published the latest lending data by ...

This week it's (mostly) all about first home buyers. There's plenty of reason for that - firstly we released our 6-monthly first home buyer report, revealing what they're buying, where they're buying and how much they're paying for it as well as a little bit of insight into how they're doing it. First home buyers were also the topic of Nick's appearance on the Newstalk ZB Weekend Collective show, with host Franceska Rudkin. Plus, a new report from new financial series provider Aera ...

Plenty of data and information to chew through this week, with the CoreLogic House Price Index kicking things off, and it's official - the downturn is over! A few caveats exist of course, but at a nationwide level the lads are calling it.The latest Financial Stability Report was in some ways stock standard, but interesting at the same time. Nick and Kelvin explain why, especially when it comes to the potential introduction of debt-to-income restrictions.From an economic perspective we also re...

After a sombre discussion of the weekend’s rugby result, Nick and Kelvin launch into the usual analysis of all the property market data, which has been coming in thick and fast lately. Recent population figures confirm the influence of migration in Auckland, and the effects this is having on rental markets – not just there, but around the country too.Meanwhile, we’ve recently had new mortgage lending (a bit patchy), consumer confidence (good and bad), and foreign buyer data (still low) to dig...

Today, we welcome Shona Mookerjee from Insurance Market to talk everything insurance. Often seen as an afterthought and a begrudging purchase, insurance is an important product to support not only homeowners but every person throughout their different life stages.Shona is a passionate, welcoming and incredibly knowledgeable financial advisor and takes Nick through a bit of Insurance 101 and a day in the life of an insurance advisor. There are a few key topics which Shona speaks about wh...

Following the release of the Consumers Price Index (CPI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin dig deep into the detail of the inflation data, what all the terms mean, why it matters and what influence it could have over the Reserve Bank's next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on November 29. There's also the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and Monthly video which provide a decent line in the sand for where the property market sits as we prepare to welcome in a new Government. This includes comme...

Aside from a 'quick' breakdown of the All Blacks incredible match and victory over the Irish in the World Cup, it's straight into the result of the General Election where National were the clear winners of the day, though it won't be all plain sailing as we await the counting of special votes to know whether they'll need NZ First or not.Either way, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over the consistent, or not-so-consistent policies between the three parties who may make-up our new Government. The ...

The CoreLogic HPI in September showed values plateau nationwide but importantly the NZ market is not all one market, so focus remains on some of the regional differences beneath the surface. The Reserve Bank took a less aggressive stance in the monetary policy review - not necessarily due to their decision to hold the OCR flat itself (for the fourth decision in a row), but more due to their expectation setting for the next decision, which now looks more likely to remain on hold. There ar...

With plenty of economic data and some lending data to review, much of this week's conversation turns to what it could mean when it comes to the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Review, coming out on Wednesday. A still-strong labour market, stronger-than-expected economic activity and improving confidence amongst both consumers and businesses has Nick and Kelvin considering the increased likelihood of one more OCR hike, and importantly the timing of it.Kelvin delved into the RBNZ mortgage lending d...

This week Nick and Kelvin dedicate a large portion of the pod to digest and discuss the latest GDP data release for Q2, even though it's admitadly old news now. But it will feature into the RBNZ discussions when it comes to consideration for their next monetary policy review (on Oct 4). Elsewhere there's a few 'insights from the road' after both were travelling last week and Kelvin also discusses key take-outs from the release of the monthly chart pack (free to download now).Lastly this ...

Plenty to get through this week, kicking off with the report which stemmed from some CoreLogic data, trying to replicate the foreign buyer tax estimates from the National Party's proposal. Michael Reddell's detailed blog, including a bit more detail on international experiences is here. Mapping the market was also updated, providing further evidence of the recovery in values (at a suburb level) so take a look to see what's happening in your area.Elsewhere first home buyers remain active,...

In what was a quieter data week for the housing market Nick and Kelvin again cover off coverage of the tax policies announced by the National Party, following Kelvin's article assessing the potential impact of the changes.From a data perspective, Kelvin reviews the latest mortgage term origination data from the RBNZ - with borrowers slowly swinging back to shorter terms. A quick look at listings volumes shows the spring increase has begun but it's off a low base and with sales also picking up...

This week Nick and Kelvin quickly run through the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which showed a modest fall at the national level, and patchy regional patterns - some areas up in August, some down. This patchiness may remain a feature in the coming months. We then launch into a detailed discussion of how the housing market might look if National won the upcoming election - from a shorter Brightline period, to a softer foreign buyer ban, to interest deductibility, there's plent...

Today we sit down with the esteemed Steve McMenemy, director and mortgage advisor at Loan Market Auckland. As a veteran in the finance industry, Steve provides us with a deep-dive into the intricacies of the New Zealand property. We walk through the projected growth in the Massey area, and Steve unpacks the vulnerabilities and opportunities in the new build market. In light of the Unitary Plan, we also discuss its impact on the housing market and new build projects.Shifting gears, we delve in...

Following the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, Nick and Kelvin discuss the state and future of housing affordability, tackling the house price to income ratio, and discussing why, despite improvements, buying a home remains an expensive endeavor. As we navigate this intricate terrain, we ponder whether the simultaneous growth in income and house prices cancels out each other's effects, leaving affordability static.Then it's onto recent lending trends, as reported by...

Number one on today's agenda is the Reserve Bank's monetary policy statement and the implications of the unchanged official cash rate. We break down the jargon and sift through layers of GDP, labour market, house prices, and inflation projections, leaving no stone unturned. We also reveal the potential for a rate rise and the nitty-gritty of the decision-making process. Moreover, we plunge headfirst into July's property market report, dissecting the role of first-home buyers, the 'wait and se...

Firstly, our apologies for the late upload of this week's episode, we had some technical difficulties with the file. But, onto the episode...This week, Nick and Kelvin kick-off the pod with a look at CoreLogic's latest Pain & Gain report, including a bit of detail that is often missed in the usual media coverage. Switching gears, we’ll discuss the latest Buyer Classification trends and the shifting dynamics between stronger and weaker buyer groups. Get ready to unravel the implicatio...

Ever wondered why both employment and unemployment rates can rise at the same time? Or how high wage growth impacts inflation and the Official Cash Rate (OCR)? Join us, along with our guest, Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson, as we decipher the latest labour market data. Prepare for an enlightening discussion on the OCR's future and the pressures that could sway its course.Now, imagine if you could decode the perplexing world of the housing market. On this episode, we navigate through the House...

Ever wondered how the easing of LVR rules has affected the investor landscape? We dig into this, discussing how this change has tipped the scales, encouraging investors to lean towards new builds. The conversation gets even more interesting as we scrutinise the loss of interest-deductibility and its sway on investor involvement. Delving further, we'll face head-on, the challenges and opportunities of investing in a market with low rental yields and interest rates. We discuss the large gap bet...

Number one on the running order this week is the recently released 6% annual inflation rate. Engage with us as we dissect this figure, the important non-tradable inflation rate and its implications on the official cash rate.Intrigued by the official cash rate and how it impacts your spending habits? Then this podcast is a must-listen. Brace yourself as we delve into a possible economic scenario where inflation remains high, pushing us towards a new recession. We'll be discussing the various f...

Ever wondered how the unchanging official cash rate might influence not only the economy but also your personal life? Kelvin Davidson and I, Nick Goodall, get to the heart of the matter in our latest episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast. We kick things off with a lively discussion about the recent Reserve Bank OCR decision holding the OCR at 5.5%, highlighting its 'wait and see' approach and the tell-tale signs of a relaxing labour market due to net migration easing skill shorta...

This weeks episode is brimming with insights, as we untangle complexities and delve into the data from CoreLogic's House Price Index. The property market is behaving in mysterious ways, with a downward trend across the nation, but certain regions like Auckland experiencing a sharper decline.Ever wondered how the dynamics of the property market might impact first-time buyers, particularly in a time of flux? We'll walk you through the intricacies of identifying market troughs, and examine the f...

Does the state of New Zealand's property market keep you up at night? Well, it's time to sleep easy as we join Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson for a riveting discussion about the country's real estate landscape and economic outlook. We navigate the nuances of the New Zealand Activity Index for May, a vital indicator for GDP, and explore what it truly means for the second quarter. But don't break out the champagne just yet. Kelvin reminds us that the economic seascape can be precarious, and th...

This week we kick off by unravelling the latest data from CoreLogic's May 2021 chart pack. From the significance of the first annual increase in sales volumes to the importance of understanding the bigger picture behind the numbers, this episode is packed with valuable insights!We also delve into the drivers of the New Zealand property market and examine the recent increase in sales volumes, all while acknowledging that this growth is still low compared to long-term averages. Kelvin helps us ...

Could the New Zealand property market be finally starting to turn a corner? Gain valuable insights on the latest trends and patterns as we discuss CoreLogic's mapping the market release for June 2023, and explore how 10% of suburbs saw an increase in value while the majority still experienced a decline.We also delve deep into the economic release of Q1, discussing why there is a delay in the GDP data (hence we closely track the New Zealand Activity Index), and how this affects the housing mar...

Are you feeling the pinch of seasonal illnesses and the excitement of recent sporting events? We certainly are! But that won't stop us from giving you all the latest updates on the New Zealand property market. This week, we delve into trends across the market, from first home buyers making up around 25% of sales to the all-time low of mortgaged investors. We also notice some fascinating trends emerging in Auckland and other parts of the country.The real estate market listings are painting an ...

This week Nick welcomes back Kelvin from holiday with a host of data, covering the latest CoreLogic House Price Index results, renewed business confidence and strong jobs data, as well as a review of the latest dwelling consents and building work in place figures.Plus, plenty of references to the state of the Australian market as home owning Kiwi look to the positive trend over there in anticipation of the same thing happening here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter...

In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick is joined by Brad Olsen, CEO and Principal Economist at Infometrics. Nick and Brad delve deep on the Reserve Bank's latest monetary policy statement and official cash rate decision, including all the juicy forecasts within. Brad also shares his insights on the impact of migration and Government spending on inflation and the state of the New Zealand property market.Nick and Brad also discuss the potential impact of debt-to-income...

Following Westpac's big call (at the time) and then the Government budget last week there's plenty to talk about as Nick and Kelvin essentially preview the RBNZ's next Monetary Policy Statement coming out this Wednesday at 2pm.The RBNZ also released Q1 data for debt-to-income tracking. Meanwhile both the CoreLogic monthly chart pack for May and the first home buyer report for Q1 also went to market. Check out the latest monthly video on Youtube.Sign up for news and insights or contact on...

This week Nick and Kelvin use the latest CoreLogic First Home Buyer report and April's buyer classification data to focus on the key players in the market.For those first home buyers (or anyone really) who are credit approved there's no doubt this is a great market for them, with a shift down for the prices they're paying but a shift up (to houses) in the types of property they're buying. Meanwhile for other owner occupiers, they're either unable or unwilling to get out there in the curr...

The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report again promoted the NZ Economy's resilience and with very early signs of the property market approaching a trough and the labour market remaining tight it's hard to argue against.The detail on jobseeker numbers and the difference to unemployment figures is available here:https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/jswr-unemployment-report.pdfSign up for news and insights or contact on L...

In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson discuss the state of the New Zealand economy, including the NZ Activity Index, inflation, and job statistics. They also discuss recent changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rules and the upcoming financial stability report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The speakers touch on the possibility of tax reform, including a land value tax, but do not expect any major changes before the upcoming ele...

Inflation dropped in Q1, which is great news for everybody. The guys run through the latest data, the risk of any suprises in the coming quarters, and of course what it means for the official cash rate and mortgage rates.They then quickly cover off the latest rent figures, before a discussion of the signs that this housing market downturn may be on its last legs (for better or worse, depending on your perspective). But there's also a long list of reasons why the end of the downturn won't sudd...

With Nick away in Northland on a family holiday, Kelvin leads the discussion today, joined by Alan Gilbert, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Solutions.The discussion runs through construction costs, the active buyer groups in the market at present, as well as migration trends, and upcoming rental figures.The looming CPI release on Thursday 20th is also covered off, which is a really key release in terms of the next steps for the RBNZ’s OCR tightening cycle.Alan then steps in to ...

After the RBNZ surprised everyone by lifting the OCR by 50 basis points, Nick and Kelvin dig into their statement and reasoning for the call. Given their consistency in messaging, are they actually quite a good 'referee'?Plus, this week a detailed look into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for March.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Amongst the usual review of weekly data and preview of the RBNZ OCR call this week, Nick and Kelvin also take a look at the RBNZ's latest paper on flooding exposure of the banking system. A couple of key insights extracted by Kelvin are:Property prices could fall 80 – 100% in the most extreme cases in NZ in the event of a large coastal flood – due at least in part to insurance withdrawal.25% of Auckland mortgages are vulnerable to a 1-in-100-year rain/surface flooding event.Tune into all that...

Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson have called it, saying it’s “fairly likely” we’ve entered a recession.Find out:How they came to this conclusion.What the Reserve Bank will likely say at next week’s OCR announcement. Plus, the central bank has engineered a recession. When might they dial back their OCR hikes? Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nic...

Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland flooding are likely to be a major drag on the country’s economy and may have plunged NZ into a recession earlier than expected. But is there a silver lining from this devastating event for our country’s shrinking economy?In this week’s NZ Property Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Nick Goodall make a case for the downturn coming to an end sooner than expected including:An expected boost in spending from the cyclone rebuildA sharp turnaround in migration figu...

With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.And keep a look out for the mont...

In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinkin...

With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.Even the dwelling consents figures offe...

This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they...

Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full ...

**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version** With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we ma...

Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).There's also...

With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what ha...

What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of d...

Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one pla...

The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn. Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much into asking price or sales price measures and are Auckland buyer...

For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pretty weak, but is there a chance that inflation expectations m...

With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity. Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loan arrears, while BusinessDesk analysed records ...

The discussion kicks off this week on the topic of house prices, with the CoreLogic Index last week showing further falls. Sure, the drop was smaller than in recent months. But be careful of reaching the conclusion that the downturn might also be over. It probably isn’t, and the ultimate peak for mortgage rates could hold the key as to when property values find a floor.Indeed, the macro news last week also had a negative tone, such as filled jobs, dwelling consents, and business confidence. W...

After the hotly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement was released last week Nick and Kelvin have a lot to discuss. From the OCR decision itself, to all the macro-economic forecasts and the language used in subsequent commentary - all with an eye to how the market is shaping up for 2023.We also got October lending figures last week, Centrix's credit review, consumer confidence results and Xero's Small Business Index to digest.Plus, the Government were busy too. Firstly they extended the dates...

While Nick and Kelvin keenly await the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, being released on Wednesday, they first take the time to look back a week full of releases.CoreLogic's Pain & Gain report for Q3, showing the proportion of owners selling at a loss has increased, but is still no where near the levels of previous downturn. REINZ latest release included what is likely a false dawn, as their HPI showed a minor increase in October, but sales volumes remain very weak.The CoreLogic Bu...

A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates. Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of our 6-monthly First Home Buyer Report, particularly that first ...

After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for. Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our financial system is pretty resilient, and that most households...

A number of data releases from a range of locations, but it still all boils down to businesses - are they investing and hiring - and consumers - are they still working, borrowing and spending?The answers are slightly mixed, with businesses not confident but still doing fine and consumers much the same, though the latest RBNZ lending data further reiterates they're not borrowing near as much as they were or could be.A number of links mentioned this week:BusinessDesk coverage of ANZ Busin...

There are no surprises what forms the bulk of this week's podcast - inflation! With the latest CPI data out last week, and it coming as a shock to many, forecasts for the OCR, mortgage interest rates and house prices have been seriously revised. To kick things off Kelvin provides a 'review of the reviews', summarising the response to the inflation data and potential flow through to the housing market.Amongst a wide-ranging, exploratory discussion Nick also references Cameron Bagrie's 'challen...

After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at the end of the tunnel. The rental index data from Stats ...

The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase. Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistake, though it seems it's a mistake they're willing to make...

Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoon and the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for September will...

After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system. Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking points to dissect. The three key drivers of house price growth are pretty...

Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness the main theme. Broad weakn...

It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss. Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official release of the Q2 GDP figures and the more timely NZAC for August. T...

The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.Building consents have (finally) shown signs of tailing off, and wh...

In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown. As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.Mark started Sotheby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property market, both in Queenstown and around the country.Listen in to hear ...

This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed.At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the "Build Ready Development Pathway" designed to support the industry, in particular for stalled construction. This should provide confidence and certainty to the sector, which could otherwise be lacking.Elsew...

No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement. Nick and Kelvin provide their review of the statement and expectations for the short-term future of the market. The latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q2 2022 and recent stor...

This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.Of course, it wouldn't r...

In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets.Tim Lawless, CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen, Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected market commentators on the Australian market and they offer great perspective at a time uncertainty in both countries remains high. Key topics of interest...

The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region.The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate competition and the opportunity of more high-LVR loans provide intrigue on where the market is heading.A surprising (minor) lift in the unemployment rate ca...