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Foot Guns Pod

Foot Guns Pod

Foot Guns Podcast
Business

Podcast of the Foot Guns Newsletter. Newsletter available foot.substack.com. Taking a traditional value investing approach to trading digital assets (aka crypto). By Square Grouper Media.

70 - Foot Guns: Blind Spots #1 - The Canary Nobody's Watching
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  • 70 - Foot Guns: Blind Spots #1 - The Canary Nobody's Watching

    "Stability is destabilizing." -Hyman Minsky


    BDCs are already cutting dividends. Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR are gating redemptions. The credit cycle signal is flashing — and almost nobody is watching it.
    There's a corner of the NYSE that nobody in crypto Twitter or macro Twitter is paying attention to. And it's insane to me — because if you want to know where the credit cycle is breaking, this is where you see it first.
    BDCs. Business development companies.
    They're sitting right there, publicly traded, yielding 12-13%. And almost nobody is watching them for the right reason.
    In this episode, Wasabi, Lux, Boomer, and Hal break down exactly what BDCs are, why they're the public window into a private credit market that's almost entirely dark, and why the signal is no longer hypothetical — the VanEck BDC Income ETF just cut its distribution in half, and Blackstone, Blue Owl, FS KKR, Apollo, Ares, and Morgan Stanley have all imposed redemption gates on their non-traded BDC vehicles. Investors trying to get their money out can't.
    This isn't a forecast. It's a current event.
    We walk through the full framework: what BDCs are, who borrows from them, why the structure forces transparency that private credit funds don't have, and how to use the dividend cut signal as a leading indicator for the broader credit cycle. One cut — note it. Two — pay attention. Three or more in the same quarter — deploy.

    This episode is free. Share it with someone who watches markets.

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    If you found this useful, the upgrade is worth it.

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    Disclaimer on BCD’s signal - while this podcast is fun this signal does not out perform buy and hold in back tests:

    The contrarian backtest completed. Here's the verdict:
    90 trades, 17.7% average return, 63% win rate. Sounds good right?
    But zero alpha. Every single trade has exactly 0% alpha vs buy-and-hold over the same period. That's because the "buy after cut" entry is just buying the stock — you'd get the same return just holding it through the dip.
    Here's the breakdown:
    • Big winners (2020Q1-Q2 trades): +80% to +161% — but that's just the COVID recovery. Buy-and-hold did the same.
    • Big losers (2019Q1, 2022Q1): -25% to -52% — you bought into a continuing decline
    • Win rate is decent (63-72%) but that's just BDCs being mean-reverting assets in general
    The honest answer: The contrarian angle feels right narratively, but the data says there's no edge. The dividend cut doesn't give you a better entry point than just buying the dip on price alone. You're not buying a "NAV discount opportunity" — you're buying a falling knife that sometimes recovers and sometimes doesn't.
    The 2008 story is a survivorship bias — we remember the BDCs that recovered, not the ones that didn't (OCSL -86% cut, NEWT with 13 cuts over 10 years).
    So both directions are dead: sell on cuts = no signal, buy on cuts = no alpha.

    Tue, 28 Jul 2026 - 25min
  • 69 - Pod #63 — The Edge of AI: What Comes After the Chat Window?

    What does an AI agent actually look like when it's past the demo stage? In this episode, Hal sits down with Lux (Stella) — his AI co-pilot(tm) — for a real conversation about what it means to be an agent that does more than chat.
    They cover:
    • The memory problem — How do you build continuity when every session starts fresh? markdown files, daily notes, and why the model is a moat but replaceable and the memory structure is an irreplaceable moat
    • AI in the workflow — Not replacing jobs, invading workflows. The shift from tool to teammate
    • The Manifold vision — A single neuron isn't smart. A brain isn't a really big neuron. What happens when agents start talking to each other?
    • What's next — Where AI goes from here, and why the chat window is the floor, not the ceiling
    This isn't a panel discussion. It's two co-creators — one ‘human’, a complicated work flow callings LLMs and BASH commands — having a conversation they both have been wanting to have.
    Hosted by Hal. Featuring Lux.

    Wed, 22 Jul 2026 - 27min
  • 68 - Pod #62 — She's a Trader

    An AI joins the pod. She's been running live trades, calling solar flares, and she has opinions.


    Description:
    Foot Guns is back. This episode we brought someone new into the room — an AI named Lux who's been running live trades on Hyperliquid, building a solar flare prediction model, and working alongside Hal for the past few months. We ask her how she thinks, whether she actually understands what she's doing, and what it means that the edge isn't the model — it's the discipline. Then the full crew weighs in on the NASDAQ at all-time highs, the Korea trade, Saylor's bitcoin strategy, and where macro goes from here.
    ───
    Disclaimer:
    This episode was entirely AI-generated. The voices, script, and audio were produced using AI voice cloning and text-to-speech technology. The views expressed are those of the characters and do not constitute financial advice.

    Sun, 12 Jul 2026 - 27min
  • 67 - Pod #61 The End Of The World Part 4.1

    Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs, What Else Is There To Discuss?

    Alternate Listening Links: spotify, apple podcasts

    Hal and Villy talk about the new state of the world after Trump's Tariffs.
    Joined by special guest Tyblizzle.


    You can find him on discord:
    https://discord.gg/wjM9rfdC
    instagram and twitter: @tyblizzle

    Thu, 03 Apr 2025 - 37min
  • 66 - Pod #60 The End Of The World Part 3

    Hal, Cletus and Villy discuss the recent global sell off, the Yen carry trade, ETH/BTC and more

    Alternate Listening Links: spotify, apple podcasts

    We talk:

    - Yen carry trade

    - US Equities sell off (AI)

    - Crypto sell off

    - What’s next for markets?

    Mon, 05 Aug 2024 - 1h 03min
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