5 in 5 with ANZ

The Boston Fed President says rates are likely to be held for longer. The Bank of Japan’s governor says big yen moves are undesirable. Taiwan’s exports are weaker than expected. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur recalibrates when Asian central banks might be able to cut, given changing expectations about when and how much the Fed cuts.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US rate cut optimism is growing with soft US labour market data. The RBA was less hawkish than expected, but won’t rule anything in or out. Australian consumers are really feeling the pinch. Inflation stays on target in Taiwan and the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data is underpinning global commodity prices.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise as traders find comfort in Fed rate cut hopes; All eyes on how hawkish the RBA will turn today; Indonesia’s GDP is supported by election spending; and holiday travel data shows Chinese consumers may be coming out of their shells. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the outlook for the US dollar and Treasuries if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election in November.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth was weaker than expected, so US bonds and stocks rallied. US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell. The RBA is expected to hold hawkishly tomorrow. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at what a Donald Trump re-election could mean for the US-China bilateral relationship.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to rule out rate hikes. Japanese authorities may have intervened again to hold up the yen. South Korean and Indonesian inflation eases. Australia’s record imports suggest demand is holding up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at how global economic developments, and the weather, are affecting demand for New Zealand’s key primary exports.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US Federal Reserve has kept rates on hold and signaled a lack of progress towards its 2% inflation goal in recent months. New Zealand’s labour market weakens, but wage growth is still high. The copper price has been on a roll in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how non-China Asia exports have been supported this year by strong US demand.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stronger US wage data adds to fears rates will be on hold for longer. Core inflation progress in Europe supports a June cut by the ECB. China’s factory output rises. Weak Australian retail sales cause a rethink on the RBA’s rate track. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Miles Workman looks closely at why consumers in New Zealand are so down in the dumps. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The yen bounces hard after slumping through 160. Some think Japan’s authorities intervened, but there’s no confirmation. ANZ Research has changed its expectation for Fed rate cuts this year to two 25 basis point cuts from four. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at how the RBA might react if Australia’s stage 3 tax cuts improve consumer confidence, which is now near 1990s-recession level lows.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar has spiked up over 158 yen. Traders are on high alert for intervention by Japanese authorities. Market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and RBA keep being pushed out. New Zealand consumer confidence falls again In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at why Australian consumer confidence is at 1990s-style recession-level lows and when it might pick up.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose after US growth and inflation data was worse than expected. Australia’s strong CPI could shift the RBA’s rate cut track out. Indonesia hikes rates to bolster its currency and South Korea’s GDP beats forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur looks at what central banks across Asia face in terms of monetary policy and their currencies if the US Fed delays rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global PMIs offer hope for an earlier US rate cut, an ECB cut in June, and an easing by the Bank of England in August. Australian inflation is set to keep easing. Currency volatility means a rate hike is not off the table in Indonesia. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga offers some pragmatic suggestions for improving housing affordability in Australia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are on the rise, while gold and oil prices fell overnight on easing tensions in the Middle East. Chinese authorities move to boost Hong Kong’s stock market. The copper price is on a tear. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a closer look at Australia’s worsening housing affordability, and why boosting housing supply may not be enough on its own. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets start the week nervously eyeing the Middle East and key US data later this week. Asian currencies are jittery near record lows against a rampant USD. The RBA will hope for lower inflation data in Australia on Wednesday In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why silver is finally jumping on gold’s fast-rising coat-tails. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields rise again on strong factory data. Australian unemployment rises, but firms still expect labour market tightness. Next week’s CPI could be crucial for the RBA. Japan’s inflation rate is expected to slow. but don’t expect the BoJ to budge. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains what is driving a surge in capital investment in India, and whether it can continue to drive GDP growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Sticky UK inflation has dashed mid-year rate cut hopes. Strong domestic inflation in New Zealand is a concern for the central bank, but the ECB looks on track to start rate cuts in June. Oil is down 3% on global demand concerns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman details four reasons why the US dollar has been so strong in recent weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A surging US dollar triggers currency intervention across Asia. Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for even longer. China’s GDP outstrips expectations, but weak domestic demand means further stimulus is expected. NZ inflation data due. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani details what’s at stake for fiscal policy and the rupee in India’s general election, starting on Friday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields rose after stronger retail sales data showed consumers are still spending. Oil fell as Middle East conflict fears eased. Dollar/Yen slid through 154 for the first time since 1990. Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down against a stronger USD. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga highlights the quiet achievements of Japan as it emerges from a period of shrinkanomics and the lessons it can teach others with declining populations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are on tenterhooks to see how Israel reacts to Iran’s weekend attacks. The US dollar is strong, while the Aussie and Kiwi dollars begin the week down. Oil is up. In our bonus deep dive interview currencies, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman is watching the yen and US dollar closely, and sees news from the Middle East limiting any bounces for the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ECB held its policy rate overnight and remains on track to cut in June - before the Fed. China inflation data weaker than expected. Singapore’s GDP figures to include a Taylor Swift effect. Traders are on yen intervention watch. In our bonus deep dive interview on the oil outlook, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says any jump towards US$100/bbl is likely to spark an OPEC supply response. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A strong US CPI has pushed back expectations for a fully-priced rate cut by the Fed from July to November. US Treasury yields are up 20 basis points and US stocks fell. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have fallen more than 1% this morning. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, has reviewed March PMI data for Asia’s main economies (ex-China), and says India’s exceptionalism showed through. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Treasury yields fall on hopes inflation is moderating. The Yen firms after reports the BoJ may raise its inflation outlook. Taiwan’s CPI is lower than forecast. Australian consumers see higher inflation. The RBNZ is expected to hold its cash rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani looks at what’s at stake in South Korea’s general election today for fiscal and monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields hit fresh 2024 highs overnight as traders continued to reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts. The Philippines’ central bank holds but turns hawkish on inflation risks. Australia’s housing imbalance is expected to keep supporting prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s driving gold’s stunning rally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stronger than forecast US jobs growth pushed up Treasury yields on Friday night, but wage growth was more moderate, leaving the Fed still on track for a rate cut in July. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen says Fiji needs to build four-and-a-half thousand new hotel rooms over the next decade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

All eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight. Australian households spent plenty going to Taylor Swift concerts; Building approvals weaken on both sides of the Tasman, and Kiwi house values track sideways. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at why you paid so much more for your Easter eggs this year - a soaring cocoa price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth beat expectations overnight, but was offset by weaker services sector growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in ‘wait and see’ mode on rate cuts this year. Gold is over US$2,300/oz this morning. Australian consumers expect higher inflation In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at the inflation and interest rate outlooks across Asia for the rest of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stock markets weakened overnight on further evidence that interest rates might stay higher for longer. Oil hit its highest price since October last year on fears around global supply, and Australian house prices continue their march upward. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, says the US Federal Reserve and the ECB won’t want real interest rates to rise as inflation falls. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Treasury yields are jumping as strong US manufacturing data increases doubt about a rate cut by the Fed in June. That broke a surge in the Gold price, which had earlier hit a new high overnight. China’s manufacturing activity is also on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, says this quarter’s data is where the rubber will meet the road for whether central banks can cut rates this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are on yen intervention alert. Australian inflation data was softer than expected. China’s industrial profits beat expectations. And New Zealand’s Government is set to borrow more as its economy slows. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s depreciating currency is not driving structural change. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data and Easter holidays for many. US consumers feel more confident. Australian renters are much less confident than home owners. New Zealand budget policy detail is due later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Data Scientist Somayeh Shiri reveals her findings from an analysis of herding behaviour among foreign exchange forecasters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are unsettled this morning, with oil and gold up solidly on geo-political concerns in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. There’s more Fed-speak and ECB-speak about when rates might be cut, and by how much. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur sorts through emerging Asia’s Q4 GDP data to find the winners and themes, especially with the boom in advanced chip manufacturing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US$ starts the week strong vs the A$, NZ$ and yen after a dovish BoJ hike and markets seeing fewer Fed rate cuts this year. Market attention is on Australian inflation data on Wednesday for signals on whether the RBA can cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes visits China and finds surprisingly resilient demand for iron ore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Taiwan’s central bank hikes unexpectedly, while the Swiss National Bank surprises with the first rate cut of the majors. The Bank of England holds. Strong Australian jobs growth hits hopes for an early rate cut from the RBA. New Zealand is in recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung surveys the seven key ‘D’ risks facing China in the year of the Dragon, starting with Deflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed has just held its Fed Funds Rate as expected, but has raised dot plot track by around 25 basis points in 2025. British inflation slowed in February, but the Bank of England is still expected to hold; The BoJ is watching a weak yen closely, and New Zealand GDP today could show a technical recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman investigates a new trend of Australian job seekers holding off starting new jobs in January, and why that could affect today’s February jobs numbers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of Japan has scrapped negative interest rates, hiking for the first time in 17 years. The Yen fell. US Treasury yields also fell ahead of the Fed’s decision tonight. The RBA held, but turned slightly dovish, which pushed the Aussie dollar down. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at how record US oil output changes the outlook for oil prices this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields and the dollar rose overnight as traders pared back expectations of the Fed’s rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei closed up over 2.5% on expectations of a dovish Bank of Japan hike today, and the RBA is set to hold, but maintain a tightening bias In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says New Zealand is at risk of a credit rating downgrade because of a high current account deficit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all scheduled to make rates decisions this week. The BoJ may even hike. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ strategist Soni Kumari analyses how China’s shift to renewable power is shifting demand for commodities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US producer price inflation data was hotter than expected. US bond yields are up, as is the US dollar. US stocks are down. House prices in New Zealand are flat, although net migration to NZ set new record highs. Iron ore could fall under US$100/tonne. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung wraps up his analysis of China’s National People’s Congress and explains why the focus is shifting away from the annual growth target to longer-term structural reform. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices surge after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. US stocks dip ahead of key retail sales data. The Bank of Japan is set to hike to 0.0% as wages surge. The ECB is seen cutting in June. Inflation in New Zealand may beat the RBNZ’s forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how a two-tiered property system is emerging in China as authorities promote affordable housing over the private market, which could take pressure off a supply glut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US core inflation was stronger than expected in February. Bond yields rose, but stock markets shrugged it off. India’s CPI was held up by food prices. Australian businesses see price rises, while consumers feel better. New Zealand retail spending drops. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how China’s property supply is running well ahead of demand, with three-and-a-half years worth of unsold residential property piling up as demand weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are in a holding pattern as traders wait to see how sticky US inflation was in February. Japan’s recession was revised away. The Bank of Japan is expected to end negative rates in next Monday or in April. India’s inflation rate is expected to be steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the Reserve Bank of India may have over-delivered on its inflation target, and how it might be loosening monetary conditions through the repo markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US non-farm payrolls were mixed, allowing markets to keep betting the Fed will start cutting in June. The ECB may cut before the Fed. The yen is rising on talk the Bank of Japan may finally hike. RBA watchers are focused on business confidence this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sanjay Mathur looks at how ASEAN economies can overcome a fading demographic dividend by investing in ICT infrastructure and human capital to keep GDP growing faster than 5%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and gold surge to fresh record highs. The ECB is set to cut rates in June. China’s exports beat expectations and all eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight for 200,000 jobs growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at what’s driving a divergence in the economic and budget performances of Australia’s states and territories.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Jerome Powell say the Fed can cut rates this year, sending stocks up and Treasury yields down. Australian growth may be bottoming out. Gold rose over US$2,150/oz to a new record highs overnight. All eyes are on the ECB rates decision tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny reviews the most recent fiscal projections for the US Government and explains how political polarisation is affecting the US’s credit rating.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China is targeting 5% GDP growth again, but debate is intense on how it’ll get there. Gold and bitcoin hit record highs. Australian exports are helping GDP growth. South Korea’s factories are humming. Prices in the Philippines rose more than forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan explains how Asian central banks are bracing for the Fed’s first rate cut.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stock and bond markets are mostly steady ahead of Fed testimony and non-farm payrolls data later this week. Gold lurched up to near record highs of over US$2,100/oz. All eyes in China are on the National People’s Congress for a new GDP target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing highlights the role climate policy will play in this week’s National People’s Congress. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Interest rate markets are poised for interest rate decisions in Europe and Canada this week. US stocks hit fresh record highs, as did gold after more falls in US bond yields. China’s National People’s Congress meets In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Sustainable Finance Katharine Tapley talks about green bond issuance in 2024 in the wake of last year’s COP.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation data met forecasts and markets still see the Fed cutting later this year. India’s GDP growth data overnight was much stronger than expected, but there’s a statistical quirk. Australian business investment intentions are rising. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why demand for copper will stay strong, even as China’s demand fades. It’s all about India.

The Kiwi dollar falls 1.3% after the RBNZ pivots away from rate hike talk. The Aussie dollar is down 0.75% after softer-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 is flat ahead of key US inflation data tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari explains why central banks are buying more gold, and why it will continue to push the precious metal’s price towards US$2,200/oz by year-end. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are wary as another Fed President sees “no rush” to cut rates. Japan’s inflation data is surprisingly warm. AI chip demand drives surprise rise in Taiwan exports. Australia’s annual inflation rate is set to rise, and it’s a ‘live’ decision day for the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview on Australia’s housing market, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell looks at the strength of household balance sheets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are treading water as traders turn their attention to critical US inflation data later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell takes a closer look at the housing supply and demand drivers behind slower price growth expected in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are paused on their global highs. Markets are turning their focus to a potential hike in the RBNZ’s cash rate and Australian inflation figures on Wednesday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen finds a lack of funding for infrastructure investment is holding back the Pacific’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks surging to record highs after Nvidia’s very strong results. US yields and US$ rise after FOMC minutes and speakers are cautious about an early rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty reviews strong growth of foreign direct investment into Vietnam, particularly from Chinese firms setting up manufacturing there. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian wages rose faster than prices for the first time in three years. Chinese stocks jump after new selling bans were imposed. A Fed President makes hawkish comments. Indonesia holds its main policy rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at opportunities in 2024 from politics, Asia and climate trends — it’s not all just about interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China cut a key interest rate to support a sagging property market, although markets reacted mildly as traders await comments from three Fed speakers and FOMC minutes; RBA minutes show focus on sticky services inflation ahead of key wage data today; Green shoots in NZ discretionary spending could get RBNZ attention. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari looks at a looming supply shortage for platinum, just as car makers and the hydrogen economy start using more of it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China stocks underwhelmed as markets opened after the Lunar New Year. The US dollar is expected to be strong through the first quarter. ANZ Research looks at a scenario for a 7% OCR in New Zealand. Thailand’s economy grew less than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices haven’t spiked much, despite widening conflicts in the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China’s consumers travelled and spent more during the just-completed Lunar New Year holidays than in 2019. The RBA will watch this week’s Australian wages figures like a hawk. The RBNZ says the last mile of inflation reduction will be hard. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why there’s a growth and interest rate divide opening up between the United States and the rest of the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets shrugged off weaker Australian jobs figures. UK and Japan GDP fell. US retail sales were weak. NZ migration was at record highs in 2023, which the RBNZ Governor is watching as an inflationary factor. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma reviews the decisive win by Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming in Indonesia’s Presidential elections, which has buoyed financial markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets bounced overnight after traders took stock of stronger-than-expected inflation, and as a Fed President said higher monthly inflation was still consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman explains why full time employment growth in Australia might be set to taper off, and what that could mean for the RBA. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US prices grew faster than expected in January, reducing hopes for a March rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The strong reading sent stock markets down, while US bond yields and the US dollar surged. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how a US ‘friendshoring’ pivot away from China is pushing up US costs and prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 has pushed even further above 5,000 ahead of US inflation data tonight. India’s inflation rate decelerated in line with expectations in January as food price rises slowed. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma explains what’s at stake in Indonesia’s elections starting tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 starts the week at a fresh record high of just over 5,000 and ANZ Research has changed its call for the RBNZ’s OCR to two more hikes to 6%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains the call change and how the RBNZ has set precedents before. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Faster-than-forecast deflation in China is raising expectations of more stimulus. The Reserve Bank of India held overnight, but more hawkishly than expected. The chances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking in three weeks is rising. In our bonus deep dive interview around the Lunar New Year, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at China’s energy transformation in the ‘fire era’ out to 2043, and what that means for the rest of the world.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 rose more than 0.5% to record highs near 5,000 after strong US corporate earnings and rate cut comments from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has looked at what typically happens to birth rates in the year of the dragon, and why this Lunar New Year may be different.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening a bit stronger after the RBA’s hold decision yesterday was a touch more hawkish than some expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing says the RBNZ’s proposed loosening of loan to value ratio restrictions is expected to boost demand for housing later in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

All eyes are on the RBA’s first cash rate decision of 2024 today, which is also its first with a new two-day board meeting that releases new forecasts and has a news conference all at once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US GDP and services inflation remains so resilient that the Fed is having to wait until the middle of 2024 to cut the Fed Funds rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Much stronger than expected US jobs growth data on Friday night sent US bond yields sharply higher over the weekend. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at a slump in the Indonesia Rupiah ahead of its presidential election next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global bond and stock markets are rallying this morning, despite attempts yesterday by Fed chair Jerome Powell to downplay chances of a rate cut in March. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim details a key reason for India’s economic outperformance — Government investment at 20 year highs in its budget overnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global bond yields fell this morning ahead of the Fed’s keenly awaited interest rate decision due as we publish at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes takes a closer look at momentous decision to pause building LNG export terminals in the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of the Fed’s decision early tomorrow morning, although market expectations about rate cuts starting in March eased back a bit more. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim India’s pre-election Budget due on Thursday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

India’s Finance Ministry says its economy could grow around 7% in coming years, with the country’s stock exchange rising 1.6% yesterday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani about why regular exports from Asia are expected to be slower than electronics exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices rose sharply over the weekend after more drama in the Red Sea and on signs of strong demand for oil from the US economy. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview on the euro’s 25th anniversary, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at whether it can ever supplant the US dollar as THE global reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China loosened lending rules overnight by the most in two years, sparking a rally in stocks there. Flash PMIs reinforced hopes for soft landings and rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview on the eve of tonight’s ECB decision, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, reflects on the euro’s 25th anniversary. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China stock market has rebounded on a report of a US$278 billion plan to support stock values. In Australia, the Federal Government is reported to be about to shift the mix of ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts towards lower to middle income earners. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at the deflationary implications of growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rose again overnight to set fresh record highs on bolstered hopes for a soft economic landing, while China’s stocks fell 2.4% to near a two-decade low as investors worry about deflation and capital outflows. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, takes a closer look at the growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks surged over the weekend to record highs, and markets are looking out this week for three crucial central bank decisions. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrill explains why big shopping centres with multiplex cinemas are doing much better than shops in and around CBDs.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets bedded in a 20 basis point rise in US 2 year Treasury yields overnight after more hawkish signals from the Fed, which kept the US dollar solid against the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why the RBNZ is now likely to cut first in August. That’s later than market expectations for a May cut, but earlier than her previous view of the first cut being in February next year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global bonds and stocks sold off again this morning after the ECB pushed back against market views of an early rate cut and US retail sales were stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur finds out what’s behind a surprisingly strong recovery in Asia’s jobs markets after covid. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global bond markets sold off this morning after Fed official Christopher Waller cautioned against expectations of early and fast cuts in US interest rates. In our bonus deep-dive interview on Australia’s commercial property investment pipeline, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing went deep into last year’s GDP figures and found the worst per-capita recession in 15 years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The People’s Bank of China left a key interest rate on hold, surprising markets expecting a cut after more signs China’s economy is deflating. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new offices is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices surged through US$80/barrel over the weekend after US and UK air strikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen raised fears a wider war in the Middle East could choke off major shipping routes through the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new office construction is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

In our special last episode for 2023, I talked with ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga about the themes for 2023 and 2024 in global markets and economies. He explains why 2023 was the year of the soft landing, how China and Japan are book-ending the global rates cycle, and why fiscal policy will matter in 2024 edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Have a safe and prosperous Christmas and New Year. We return on Monday, January 15. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

In our special 101st episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

In our special 100th episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2023. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Market interest rates are sharply lower this morning and stocks are rallying after the Fed pivoted to projecting interest rate cuts next year. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam is benefiting from friendshoring. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are in animated suspension this morning ahead of the Fed’s decision at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s budget is healthier after solid income tax and mining royalty growth. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam’s economy can keep growing, even after its demographic dividend has ended. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation data met forecasts overnight. Now the focus shifts to how hard the Fed will push back tomorrow morning at market expectations of early and large rate cuts next year. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s economy is set to double inside the next five to eight years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of US CPI data tonight and the FOMC decision on Thursday morning, although the yen is falling as expectations of a Bank of Japan next week evaporate. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why there’s such strong demand for Australia’s houses from rental property investors. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

America’s economy is still generating solid jobs growth while on track for a soft landing, but China’s has slowed so much it’s producing deflation.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Comments from Japanese officials suggesting a rate hike jolted the yen and Japanese bond yields sharply higher overnight. Global markets are now focused on Non Farm Payrolls data tonight for signs of a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the Fed’s next rate cutting cycle will be so different. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Soft Australian GDP figures have increased the chances that 4.35% will stay as the peak for the RBA’s cash rate. Oil prices slumped below US470/bbl overnight In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh examines the outlook for India’s rupee and the Singaporean dollar next year as the Fed starts cutting and the US dollar weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

More US soft landing signs dragged US Treasury yields lower overnight, but the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are weaker after a credit rating warning for China and an RBA hold some in the markets saw as less hawkish than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why he sees Fed rate cuts in 2024 helping Asia’s currencies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% in its last cash rate decision of the year this afternoon, albeit with a hawkish tone and after considering a hike. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he’s raised his iron ore price forecasts to over US$100/tonne, despite weak demand for steel from China’s apartment developers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening at four-month highs against the US dollar and the gold price is at a record-high US$2,091/oz after US Treasury yields fell again on a growing conviction the Fed has engineered a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the pressures in Australia’s A$100 billion infrastructure investment pipeline. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed’s favourite measure of US inflation landed softly in October, leaving it on track to start cutting rates from the middle of next year. But inflation is weakening much faster in Europe, meaning rate cuts could start there from Easter. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australia’s inflation rate was much weaker than expected in October, but the RBA is expected to stay on a hawkish hold. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also taken a hawkish stance, wrong-footing markets hoping for early rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have surged overnight to four-month highs against a weakening US dollar, thanks to comments from a normally hawkish Fed official suggesting US rate cuts are more likely than hikes anytime soon. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman maps out the sweet spot for his new FTE-pop indicator of Australian labour market tightness. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China’s industrial profit growth has slowed sharply, increasing expectations for more stimulus. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman has come up with a better measure of how tight the labour market is: FTE-pop. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

New Zealand finally has a new centre-right coalition Government to replace the outgoing Labour administration. It plans tax cuts, spending cuts and a tweak to the Reserve Bank’s targets. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga maps out the week ahead in global markets and economics, including whether investors are too optimistic about a soft landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

New RBA Governor Michele Bullock is talking hawkishly about demand-driven inflation, which is set to keep Australian interest rates high, and possibly higher, for longer. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin details why massive US public investment spending is holding global interest rates up for longer. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/