WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Oil is higher for longer, and Sasol is the big local winner. But with the share back at R290, how much good news is already priced in, and when do shareholders see a dividend again? In episode 700, Simon Brown explains why Brent is still above $110 even though Middle East oil flows are back to pre-war levels, sets out three oil price scenarios for the next two years, and runs them through Sasol's earnings sensitivities, debt target and dividend policy.

Topics: Brazil ETF crash after the election, global oil inventories and restocking, China's destocking and EV shift, Sasol earnings scenarios, the Sasol dividend timeline, analyst price targets, and how the show began on Classic FM in 2008.

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Boxer earns slightly more per rand of sales than Shoprite, yet the maths says it will never catch the bigger grocer. Simon Brown compares the two side by side on margins, store economics, growth and valuation, and explains why Pick n Pay's stake in Boxer remains an overhang. He also unpacks why France's 10-year yield has doubled since January 2025 and how higher yields feed a negative debt loop. The trade of the week is Amazon, funded by half of a Dell position that has more than quadrupled.

Topics: French 10-year yields, debt feedback loops, actively managed ETFs, Boxer vs Shoprite, Pick n Pay overhang, Amazon robotics, Dell.

WorldWideMarkets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail and Shyft.

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Naspers and Prosus have roughly halved over the past year. Simon Brown unpacks why: three-quarters of the fall is Tencent, the rest is a stronger rand, while the holdco discount has barely budged at around 40%. At R664 Prosus offers about R1,135 of value, but billions in buybacks haven't closed the gap, and Tencent's capex surge has spooked the market.

Topics: Top 40 chart of the week, actively managed ETFs at the Standard Bank Power Hour, the new JustOneLap ETF dividends page, Naspers and Prosus discount maths, the buyback loop, Tencent capex and AI, Just Eat Takeaway and iFood, bull and bear cases, and the November results to watch.

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South Africa sold 61,645 new cars in September, the most in almost 20 years, yet the listed motor stocks are falling. Simon Brown explains why: cheap, well-specced Chinese cars are driving the volume while crushing pricing power across new cars, used cars and rental fleets. He digs into the naamsa numbers, what flatters the headline, and why the market is pricing a cyclical peak, then ranks the six JSE motor stocks.

Topics: US unemployment chart of the week, actively managed ETFs Power Hour, naamsa September sales, rental fleets and demos, Chinese brands, used car deflation, WeBuyCars, Zeda, Motus, CMH*, Super Group, Metair, hybrids and EVs.

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Curro has delisted, leaving ADvTECH and Stadio as the only listed education stocks on the JSE, and both screen as expensive. Simon Brown compares their valuations, looks at the structural shortage of school and university seats in South Africa, and weighs the pending university-status catalyst to find the smart bet. He also covers the MPC's rate hike and a global bond yield sell-off pushing the SA ten-year back towards 9%.

Topics: MPC rate hike, global bond yields, Stadio index inclusion, ADvTECH vs Stadio valuations, private schooling in South Africa, the university seat shortage, UNISA, university status, and the investment verdict.

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Download the ADvTech and Stadio ernings report valuations here.

Platinum smashed its 2008 record in January, then fell almost 50%. Simon Brown works through what actually happened to the platinum group metals and why the JSE-listed miners are still generating enormous cash at the lower price.

A 1.5 million ounce deficit became a 265,000 ounce surplus in a year, almost entirely because investment demand and Chinese jewellery buying walked away above 3,000 dollars.

Electric vehicles were never the real threat. The growth story nobody is pricing is the AI build-out, with ruthenium up 151 percent and iridium up 30 percent on data centre and hard drive demand.

Then the five miners side by side: Valterra, Northam, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater and Tharisa, and the 1 December deadline on the Northam approach.

Download the free report here.

Topics: platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, PGM supply and demand, AI demand, Valterra, Northam, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater, Tharisa, FOMC, SARB, the rand.

Worldwide Markets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Shoprite is trading at all-time highs and has still de-rated 23% in two years. Simon Brown works through the FY26 numbers — 7% revenue growth, a 6% trading margin, HEPS up 12.2% and internal selling price inflation of just 0.8% against national food inflation of 3.9% — and asks whether a business generating a 19.8% return on invested capital against an 11.5% cost of capital is still offering value at 314c. Sixty60 gets the closest look: R25.5bn of sales, 11.1% of South African supermarket sales, and a super app strategy reaching into coffee, cellular, pets, pharmacy and financial services. Before that, the US 10-year above 5%, a Fed credibility problem ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, and a fuel under-recovery large enough to put a local hike back on the table.

Topics: FOMC, US 10-year yields, SA MPC, fuel price, inflation, Shoprite, Sixty60, Checkers, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Woolworths, Nedbank, Absa, Clicks, Naspers.

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This week WorldWideMarkets runs Simon Brown's keynote from a corporate event: four slides on the four issues facing global markets right now, with AI deliberately left off the list.

The world lost roughly 20% of its oil supply when the Strait of Hormuz closed, and Brent still only reached $120 — Simon explains why the oil market had far more slack than anyone realised, and why $80 rather than $60 is the level to plan around.

He then covers the rand at R15.92, the two elections falling on 3 and 4 November, and the story he thinks matters most: $40 trillion of US government debt now costing $1.1 trillion a year to service, and a bond market that no finance minister can push around.

Finally, why a lifelong gold sceptic now holds gold.

Topics: Brent crude, Strait of Hormuz, China's strategic reserves, Taiwan, USD/ZAR, SA local government elections, US midterms, G7 bond yields, US debt, AngloGold Ashanti, gold ETFs.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is selling short-dated paper and buying long in an attempt to force the 10 and 30-year yields lower.

Simon Brown explains why fighting a market rarely ends well, and what that trade has already done to gold and the rand.

With gold back at $4,630 and the rand at R16, he then works through all five JSE-listed gold miners — Pan African, DRDGOLD, Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti — comparing production, all-in sustaining costs, balance sheets and analyst price targets, before ranking them and setting out the specific red flag attached to each.

He closes with two JSE stocks moving the wrong way: Naspers and Clicks.

Topics: US Treasury yields, gold price, rand gold price, JSE gold miners, all-in sustaining costs, hedging and collars, Ghana mining leases, Naspers, Clicks.

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Absa and Nedbank are the two cheap banks on the JSE, both trading near 1.2 times tangible book while Standard Bank and FirstRand sit close to two.

Simon Brown puts them side by side after both reported and finds numbers so similar that valuation stops being the question: the same fifteen percent return on equity, the same credit loss ratio near zero point nine percent, the same capital. What separates them is that Nedbank has committed to seventeen percent return on equity by 2028 and Absa has not.

He also covers the expiry of the sixty-day Iran accord with Brent above ninety dollars, long bond yields back at 2008 levels, a major upgrade to the JustOneLap ETF database, and stocks on the move.

Topics: Absa results, Nedbank results, return on equity, cost to income, bank valuations, Iran and oil, the rand, global bond yields, sovereign debt, ETF database, Mr Price, Shoprite, Clicks, Woolworths.

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Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding customers, but it hasn't started healing. Simon Brown goes deep on the retailer's 20-week trading update, where group turnover rose 2.7% while core Pick n Pay SA supermarkets went backwards.

He unpacks the so-called negative stub — a R14 billion market cap against an R18.8 billion stake in Boxer plus cash — and explains why capital gains tax makes those "free" 1,538 stores a lot less free. He also looks at the Section 189A labour consultation covering 22,000 employees, the base rates on retail turnarounds globally, and why Shoprite's ability to absorb inflation and grow Sixty60 gives it weapons Pick n Pay cannot afford. His call: stay in Shoprite.

Topics include Pick n Pay, Boxer, Shoprite, Checkers Sixty60, Woolworths, retail turnarounds, Section 189A, and the OST to Shyft migration.

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📅 Events: justonelap.com/events 📧 Newsletter: https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/

Mr Price and Clicks have both been hammered, and on a chart they look like the same trade. They are not.

Simon Brown holds both and spends this episode pulling the two businesses apart to work out which one he actually wants to own. Clicks is on its cheapest P/E in a decade but is losing share in the high-margin categories that pay the bills, with Dis-Chem, Checkers Sixty60, SPAR Health and Woolworths all circling. Mr Price is on 12.2 times earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield and a German acquisition the market has already priced as a failure.

Also covered: US earnings season running at 47% growth, why the South African consumer squeeze is worst at the top end, and Saudi Aramco's warning that rebuilding oil inventories could take 18 months.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Vodacom has cut its dividend payout ratio from 75% to 65%, which pushes one of the JSE's dependable income names down the list. Simon Brown runs the Top 40 and the mid-cap screen to find where quality local yield actually sits, and shows how Growthpoint, Nedbank, Coronation and Standard Bank can be combined into a home-built income portfolio yielding roughly seven and a half to eight percent, growing ahead of inflation. He also unpacks Alphabet's record quarter, where two thirds of the profit was unrealised paper gains and free cash flow turned negative for the first time on record, and asks how any investor values Tesla when the CEO has promised self-driving cars every year for a decade.

Topics: Alphabet results, AI capex, circular AI revenue, Vodacom dividend policy, JSE dividend yields, income ETFs, Tesla valuation, Elon Musk, Bid Corp, Clicks, Absa.

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Can you find a real edge in prediction markets? Simon hunts the arbitrage — and calls Netflix cheap.

In this week's WorldWideMarkets: • 🎲 Prediction markets: where's the edge, and where's the scam? • 🇧🇷 The Brazil election "two-horse arbitrage" explained • 📈 Betting SA's 2026 inflation print with a Bayesian model • 🎬 Netflix halved — Simon says it's now cheap • 📊 Stocks on the move: Bid Corp, Mr Price, OUTsurance, Vodacom, Absa, Gold Fields

CHAPTERS: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Prediction markets: where's the edge? 4:35 The Brazil election arbitrage 8:05 Betting SA inflation with a Bayesian model 13:30 Upcoming events 14:25 Oil, Iran & Canada tariffs 16:45 Netflix: cheap for the first time in years 19:50 Stocks on the move

🌐 More at JustOneLap.com

A month after the year's most hyped listing, nearly everyone who bought SpaceX and held is underwater — and with the 180-day lock-up now gone, Simon Brown explains why insider selling is only getting started.

He then tours the week's biggest moves: Apple's copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and what it means for hardware and an IPO, Purple Group buying Telescope AI to strengthen EasyEquities, oil climbing back into the 80s as Middle East peace talks stall, De Beers closing its last South African mine, and Sappi languishing at 1998 levels.

He closes on a US 10-year yield near 4.6% and the start of a US earnings season priced for 23–24% EPS growth. Topics: SpaceX, OpenAI, Apple, Purple Group, Telescope AI, Brent oil, De Beers, Sappi, Mpact, US Treasuries, bank earnings.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years.

This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice.

He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert.

Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn Nasdaq listing and the memory trade, and the Q2 review of the Equity Coverage AI project — 26 names, 22 buys and one sell.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

This week's WorldWideMarkets is a tour of cheap stocks that each come with a question mark.

Simon Brown looks at Microsoft, where a forward PE of around 20 against a mean of 33 makes it look inexpensive — except free cash flow has slipped back to 2021 levels as AI and data-centre capex ramps. He revisits Afrimat, a high-quality cyclical now trading near 10-year lows, and digs into Bending Spoons, the Italian roll-up of legacy tech brands like Evernote, WeTransfer and AOL heading to the NASDAQ under code BSP.

He also covers Naspers' latest results, the discount embedded in the Naspers-Prosus-Tencent chain, and why petrol gets a sizeable cut as Brent drops into the low 70s. Topics: Microsoft, Afrimat, Brent oil, Bending Spoons IPO, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, Takealot.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

MercadoLibre is down 40% for the year, and Simon Brown argues the market is mispricing it as a retailer while ignoring the fintech engine — Mercado Pago — that is becoming Latin America's biggest digital bank. Total payment volume now exceeds gross merchandise volume, even as management deliberately halves operating margins to grab market share.

This week also marks the death of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan at 100, a look at SpaceX's volatile listing that still sits above its IPO price, South African inflation cooling to 4.5% with petrol relief on the way, the first FOMC meeting with Jerome Powell no longer chair, and why Brent crude has fallen back to pre-conflict levels despite a major supply scare.

Topics: MercadoLibre, MELI, Amazon, SpaceX, Alan Greenspan, FOMC, SA inflation, Brent oil, offshore income.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

A US–Iran cessation of hostilities, due to be signed Friday, has collapsed the oil price, firmed the rand back toward 16.00 and let gold hold key support — and Simon Brown argues markets are heading back to where they sat in late February, just with fewer rate cuts on the table.

This episode also unpacks the most hyped IPO in history opening softer than expected, South African inflation surprising lower at 4.5% with chunky petrol and diesel cuts due in July, a no-change FOMC meeting, and a busy stocks-on-the-move list.

Topics: US–Iran ceasefire, oil, rand, gold, emerging markets, SA inflation and fuel prices, FOMC, the big tech IPO, Clicks, Discovery, Bidcorp, Outsurance, Growthpoint, MTN and Mondi.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

The World Cup kicks off Thursday — so which stocks actually win?

Simon Brown ran a data-driven hunt and the answer is counter-intuitive: skip the obvious bets. His own scrape of stadium-adjacent hotels found accommodation available everywhere, with 84 of 104 games unsold, so hoteliers have no pricing power and the retail uplift is marginal. The real edge sits with the kit makers — Adidas and Nike both screen cheap against analyst targets — and the betting operators, Sun International and NYSE-listed Super Group. He also looks at JSE newcomer Canal+ and the free-streaming threat from SABC Plus.

Plus: three mega IPOs landing at once (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) and the $160bn funding crunch behind Micron's 16% drop, and a bleak read on the PGM miners.

Topics: World Cup stocks, Adidas, Nike, Canal+, Sun International, Super Group, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, PGMs.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Simon Brown unpacks a US personal savings rate of just 2.6% — one of the lowest on record — and why it matters more as a fragility gauge than a crash signal.

He covers the collapsed Iran deal and its effect on oil and South African fuel prices, the SARB's prime rate hike to 10.5% and why he thinks the MPC has it wrong, and the near-10% surge in Naspers and Prosus on news that WeChat is putting AI at the centre of its app.

Plus SPAR's brutal trading update, the year-to-date scoreboard with South Korea up 123%, Afrimat's Nersa win, Dell's near four-bagger, and why Simon keeps buying Clicks at two-year lows.

Topics: US savings rate, Iran and oil, SARB rates, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, SPAR, food retail, South Korea, Dell, Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

SpaceX comes to market on 12 June at a $1.75 trillion valuation — 94 times sales, where Amazon trades at four. Simon walks through where to actually buy it (Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Fidelity), why xAI is a rounding error in the AI race, and why Tesla is likely to be rolled into SpaceX within two to three years.

Plus the Dow Jones turns 130, Moody's lifts South Africa's outlook from stable to positive, Balwin delists at below NAV with Calgro M3* potentially next, and stocks on the move including Shoprite*, AB InBev, Impala Platinum, and Gold Fields.

Topics: SpaceX IPO, Dow Jones, Moody's, Balwin delisting, Calgro M3, Canal Plus, Pope Leo XIV on AI, oil, Shoprite, AB InBev, Implats, Gold Fields, Anglo Gold Ashanti.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Global bond yields are spiking to multi-decade highs across the US, UK and Japan, and Simon Brown argues this looks a lot like the emerging market debt crises markets usually call doom and gloom.

He unpacks the Pick n Pay sell-down of Boxer shares, the Eastern Cape floods threatening the citrus crop, and the absurd Cerebras IPO trading at 150 times sales.

Plus an update on JustOneLap's institutional-grade research project, results from Calgro M3, WeBuyCars and Astral, the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026, and three stocks on the move: British American Tobacco, BHP Group and Clicks.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Boxer just posted ShopRite-level operating margins — so why is Pick & Pay, which owns 65% of it, trading at an implied negative enterprise value?

Simon Brown unpacks the R10bn valuation paradox and whether it's a genuine opportunity.

He also walks through his new AI-powered research workflow, using Claude and ChatGPT to produce and fact-check full initiating coverage reports on Balwin Properties and Raubex.

Plus: gold miners Goldfields and AngloGold Ashanti on costs, Meta at its cheapest forward PE since 2022, and Open Router token data that shows xAI running a distant fourth behind Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Hyperscaler results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet produced numbers that almost don't seem real — combined remaining performance obligations of $1.46 trillion and Q1 capex of $112 billion.

Simon unpacks where that money is going, why copper is the quiet beneficiary, and which JSE stocks give exposure.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $380 billion in cash, roughly 38% of its market cap — a meaningful drag while US markets sit at highs.

The memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — are choosing pricing power over capacity, with SK Hynix on a forward PE of 4.5.

Closer to home, the fuel price hike lands tomorrow with Brent back at $114, putting fragile consumer stocks under pressure. Plus an update on using AI for institutional-grade research and the upcoming JustOneLap events.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

US markets hit all-time highs this week even as $166 billion in Trump tariff refunds start processing — a windfall for retailers, but consumers who paid inflated prices at the till won't see a cent back.

Tim Cook is stepping down at Apple with John Ternus taking over, Amazon is spending $11.57 billion to buy Globalstar and build a Starlink rival, and Netflix delivered Q1 results with a $2.8 billion Warner break fee buried in the numbers.

Simon also breaks down the Fed Chair nomination battle, why market recoveries are getting faster, and the sixth anniversary of the day WTI oil went negative.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

US results season opens with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson both beating expectations — but the more interesting story is what those results don't show yet: the full impact of Middle East conflict and Trump's drug pricing pressure.

Simon also unpacks South Africa's looming fuel crisis and makes the economic case for working from home, a new 100% offshore ETF listing on the JSE from ETFSA, and an ASP Isotopes update for those holding a speculative position.

FNB's FCA-mandated R11.9bn provision for undisclosed UK vehicle finance commissions gets a full breakdown, as does the nuanced reality of the Straits of Hormuz "blockade" — it has T's and C's.

Plus a long-overdue Bitcoin check-in. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

South African consumer stocks have been hammered.

In Episode 673 of WorldWideMarkets, Simon Brown works through the JSE's food and clothing retailers — Shoprite, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Pepkor, Foschini Group, Mr. Price, Lewis, and Woolworths — asking where genuine value has emerged and where cheap simply means broken.

He also sets the macro scene with Trump's Wednesday deadline on Iran peace talks and what a Straits of Hormuz transit fee would mean for oil prices and inflation.

Stock by stock: valuations, analyst targets, dividend yields, and Simon's honest take on what he holds and why.

Topics covered: JSE retail sector, food retailers, clothing retailers, Iran oil risk, consumer inflation, SA discretionary spending.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Simon reviews six listed space stocks ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO, which could debut above $2 trillion as early as June. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace, Planet Labs and Spire Global each get a SWOT breakdown, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as a diversified alternative. On the local front, the JSE Top 40 just posted its worst month since September 2008, falling roughly 10 percent from all-time highs. A massive petrol price increase takes effect at midnight. Simon discusses investing into a falling market, revisits the Algorithm Holdings AI hype collapse, and explains why CrowdStrike's CEO selling stock is not worth losing sleep over. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

WorldWideMarkets episode 671 covers the return of US tariffs through Section 301 investigations targeting South Africa and 60 other countries — with no rate ceiling and no court precedent to stop them.

Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on.

Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling.

Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space exposure and Franco Nevada (FNV) as a low-risk gold streaming alternative to miners.

Plus the MPC rate decision preview and a quick plug for the new AI in the Wild column.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can.

🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally.

📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move.

🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk.

🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. Casey Sprake (AG Capital) maps the timeline: transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year.

🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170.

📊 Results Roundup

💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now.

🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear.

🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March.

🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669

📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT

With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.

Simon's strategy right now?

🧘 Do nothing.

Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.

Oil has been incredibly volatile.

📊 Recent moves

That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.

The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

🚢 Shipping traffic

Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.

Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.

💸 Earlier estimates suggested:

After oil pulled back slightly:

Still extremely painful for the economy.

Oil shocks ripple through inflation.

📊 Rule of thumb: Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.

With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:

➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation

For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.

Upcoming meetings:

Previously expected: rate cuts.

Now?

❌ Cuts unlikely

Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.

Markets are asking one thing:

How long does this conflict last?

Current signals:

One possible constraint: missile inventories.

Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.

At some point, stocks run out.

The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.

📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels

Possible release:

➡️ 300–400 million barrels

This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.

That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.

✔ Conflict ends within weeks ✔ Strategic reserves released ✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s

🔥 War escalates 🔥 Shipping disruptions persist 🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200

At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.

Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.

📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call

Key features:

💰 Return: 14% per year 📅 Term: Up to 5 years 🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive 💵 Currency: Rand 📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity 📥 Minimum investment: R25,000

The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.

Top holdings include:

Total: 30 companies in the index.

South Africa released Q4 GDP.

📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%

Full-year growth:

Not amazing, but improving.

Forecast for 2026:

📈 1.6% – 1.8%

If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.

The media industry continues consolidating.

Deal overview:

💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery 📦 Price: ~$100 billion

Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.

💵 Result:

New twist:

Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.

For South African investors:

Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.

Yes… it's complicated.

The concerns:

📉 Traditional media is declining 🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content 🏛️ Politics may influence the deal

Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.

Simon's take:

This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.

The US switched to daylight savings.

New trading times for South Africa:

📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)

Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.

Time flies.

✔ Key Takeaway

Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.

Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰

This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.

Key Changes:

After years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.

Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:

Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀

Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.

US markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.

The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.

Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.

Key Developments:

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:

Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80 Prolonged tension → Oil $90+ Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk

South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.

📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused.

February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:

Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.

Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.

Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.

Basket explored:

Preferred picks: ✅ Salesforce ✅ Adobe ✅ Intuit

AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing).

Key insight: Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users.

Markets are volatile. War introduces uncertainty. Oil is the key risk variable.

But:

If you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio.

See you next week 👋

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

This special broadcast is the recording of the Budget Panel 2026 with AJM, Baker Tilly Greenwoods, and FNB.

Simon Brown hosts and his guests are;

🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 667

📅 25 February 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft

The ruling: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose tariffs, finding no international emergency existed. This is a significant legal defeat.

The refund problem: Roughly $150–170 billion in tariffs have been collected. Companies like Walmart and Costco will want that money back, since the Supreme Court has effectively declared these tariffs illegal. Chief Justice Roberts acknowledged the refund process will be "messy" — an understatement.

Trump's new move: On Friday evening, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order imposing a flat 10% tariff on all countries (with the law allowing up to 15%). This is a notable reduction for South Africa, which was previously on 30%. However, this only runs for 150 days, expiring mid-July.

Other legal avenues Trump could pursue:

Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China in his first term, but requires formal investigations and findings — too slow for Trump's style.

Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): Allows up to 50% tariffs without investigation, has never been used, and would almost certainly face court challenges.

The bottom line: Tariffs aren't going away. Trump views them as a political weapon and a negotiating stick. He'll keep finding new legislative tools to wield them. Around a dozen trade deals have been signed under the "90 deals in 90 days" framework, though countries that signed early (like the UK at ~10%) may feel they overpaid.

🗓️ 24 March | 11:00 AM | Webcast with 1nvest

First in a series covering protecting your portfolio and navigating scams, with social media red flags guidance from Lungeli at 1nvest, plus a conversation with 1nvest's compliance officer on what financial advice looks like (and what it doesn't). Future webcasts will cover emerging markets vs tech vs developed markets, income investing, and commodities.

👉 More info and booking at **JustOneLap.com/events**

Software-as-a-service stocks have been hammered on fears that "vibe coding" (using AI tools to build software) could replace platforms like Salesforce. Simon is sceptical — replacing the software is perhaps 10% of the challenge. The real difficulty is retraining tens of thousands of staff, migrating data without losses, and managing a massive transition process.

Goldman Sachs' SOHO Index shows capital-heavy stocks (manufacturers, farmers) up nearly 40% since June 2025, while capital-light stocks (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet) have been largely flat — a notable divergence.

IBM dropped ~10% on news that Anthropic's Claude Code can convert COBOL to modern languages, but Simon remains cautious about overhyping AI capabilities. He's currently reviewing a 20-page AI-generated SaaS research report from Claude Opus 4.6 and will report back next week.

What to expect:

Fiscal drag relief is likely, funded by extra revenue from precious metals booms (higher corporate tax and dividend tax from gold and PGM miners) and SARS's clampdown on arrears (~R20 billion recovered).

Tax-free savings annual limit could increase from R36,000 — possibly to R40,000 or even R60,000 (per Nireena Fissa of ETFSA, since 60,000 divides neatly by 12). This costs Treasury very little in the short term since the big capital gains tax hit is years away.

Reg 28 changes: Unlikely — these would cost Treasury money immediately.

Capital gains exclusion (R40,000): Unlikely to change despite being unchanged for over a decade — another stealth tax.

Interest exemptions: No changes expected.

Simon's tax tip: He's been selling down long-held ETF positions (originally ITRIX, now Cygnia World) to use the R40,000 annual CGT exclusion, then reinvesting into a different ETF with a better total expense ratio. Important: don't sell and rebuy the same instrument immediately — SARS treats that as "washing."

Overall expectation: A boring budget, which is exactly what markets want.

Palladium 🔩 Broke through $1,100 and $1,200 early last year, pulled back to $1,350 late in 2025, now consolidating around $1,617–$1,700. Support sits at the $1,650–$1,700 level. Not going to the moon, but holding at higher levels — which is what matters.

Platinum 🪙 Broke $1,000 in June, then $1,250 in July. Has since consolidated around the $2,000–$2,150 range, well off the $2,800 high but maintaining higher support levels. Results from Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum, and Northam confirm the improved earnings picture.

Gold Currently at $5,153 and running hard. Simon admits gold has proved him wrong — after January's volatile drop of nearly $1,000 from the $5,600 high to the Monday low, he expected consolidation around $4,500 or even $4,000. Instead, gold consolidated around $5,000 and has resumed its rally. His advice for those who feel they've "missed" the run: scale in gradually, buying a third at current prices and adding on dips or at intervals.

Brent Crude Oil Had been under pressure until the US detained the president of Venezuela (heavy, sour crude — less critical but still impactful). Oil briefly dipped below $60 but has since recovered. The $70–$71.50 level is important resistance; a break above targets $80 and then mid-$80s. Looks like a short-term blip for now — hopefully not the start of a longer trend.

💱 Rand/Dollar Update The rand is trading around R16.02 to the dollar, with the trend firmly toward a weaker dollar. Foreigners have been net buyers of South African bonds, and the US dollar index continues to show weakness — something Trump actively wants. If the dollar loses another 7–8%, that could push the rand into the mid-R14s. Sounds dramatic, but as Simon puts it: "Don't fight the rand."

Budget reaction + AI SaaS research report review

Thanks for listening — look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too. ✌️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets - Episode 666 📊

ZA 10-year yield | weekly

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

"Look after yourself. If you can look after somebody else as well." 💚

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 664

📅 Recorded: Tuesday midday | 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown

This week on Worldwide Markets, we unpack a wild ride across commodities, central banks, tech titans, and global trade — with gold stealing the spotlight once again.

Gold went vertical — and then snapped back hard.

📈 Ran from around $4,300 → $5,600, before a brutal sell-off

📉 Dropped to $4,600, now stabilising near $4,900

🕯️ That giant red "kangaroo tail" candle looks ugly — but…

The bigger picture hasn't changed:

💵 Debasement trade still intact

🌍 Central banks bought ~800 tonnes last year

🏦 ETF investors were big buyers again after selling in 2024

➡️ Verdict: Likely consolidation, not collapse. Sideways is the base case.

Gold |Weekly | 03 February 2026

It wasn't just gold:

🔩 Copper, silver, platinum, palladium all surged

🛢️ Brent crude nearly hit $70

🪨 Aluminium hit US record prices, creating transatlantic arbitrage

Nothing goes straight up forever — profit-taking was inevitable.

Simon stays honest here:

❓ Industrial demand and price dislocations matter

⚠️ But silver remains complex and opaque

💡 Portfolio stance:

✅ Holding gold miners

✅ Holding gold ETFs (local & offshore)

❌ No silver exposure — and comfortable with that

Trump's Fed chair nominee spooked markets — but context matters:

🔄 Walsh is not a hawk, more a rate flip-flopper

🗳️ Previously opposed rate cuts… until Trump won

📉 Trump wants lower rates — Walsh says he'll deliver

The challenge?

🧠 Convincing the rest of the FOMC

🪑 Jerome Powell still has influence for now

➡️ Expect noise, not an instant policy pivot.

Big Elon energy this week:

🛰️ SpaceX acquires xAI

🧠 Grok + data + power + space = big ambitions

📊 IPO rumoured for mid-2026

💰 Valuation likely north of $1 trillion

Simon likes SpaceX… less excited by the social-media side.

January numbers surprised again:

📊 Sales near levels last seen in 2019 / early 2022

🏆 Toyota leads, but Chinese brands keep climbing

🇨🇳 Chery, GWM, JAC & friends reshaping the market

Consumers are still buying — despite high rates.

A deal was announced, but details are fuzzy:

📉 Tariffs reduced (somewhat)

🛢️ India supposedly to stop buying Russian oil (👀)

💸 India to buy $500bn of US goods (timeline unclear)

History lesson:

🌮 Trump tariff threats turn real only ~20% of the time

⚖️ Supreme Court still deciding if Trump even has the authority

➡️ Lots of headlines, fewer guarantees.

📅 19 February 📍 Rosebank (in-person) + webcast 💡 Topic: Tax-Free Investing & ETFs

👉 Book at justonelap.com/events

Markets are noisy, emotional, and fast — but the big-picture trends still matter more than the candles.

Until next week: 🤍 Look after yourself 🤍 And if you can, look after someone else too

Cheers! 🍻

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 663

📅 28 January | Recorded late Tuesday afternoon Host: Simon Brown

Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳

This week a quick look at gold and the Rand, both did what was expected over the year in the first month.

Then picks for the Cristal Challenge 2026 and the Moneyweb Investor Challenge.

Three bankers that go into each challenge. Then four floaters, two per each challenge to mix it up a bit.

Best of luck to all who enter :)

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

For the thirteenth year in a row Keith McLachlan, Marc Ashton and Simon Brown kick off the new year with a predictions show.

First they check in and mark what they said last year. Then they each offer three predictions for the year ahead and a view on the Top40 and Rand/

Find last years show here.

🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660

📅 10 December 2025 🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

Last podcast of 2025! 🎉

A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏

A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈

Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

📌 Highlights included:

🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)

🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch

💰 Gold & commodities outlook

🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks

🚀 IPO environment

🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯

🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%

🥉 Northam — +214%

🏅 Gold Fields — +195%

Implats — +153%

Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range

Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕

Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock

Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 Stadio — +89%

🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals

📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

+87% 🚀

Bull markets = busy brokers

Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📱 MTN — +76%

🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)

🔌 IOCA — +65%

☎️ Telkom — +60%

🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

🟪 Sygnia — +72%

💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)

🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)

🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%

🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)

🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.

🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%

💼 Capitec — +29%

🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec

🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)

🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)

🥩 Spur — +15%

🍗 Famous Brands — –16%

🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)

🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)

👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)

👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%

👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%

📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)

🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)

💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)

🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)

📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)

👖 Mr Price* — –26%

🍔 Famous Brands — –16%

🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

Early signs of improvement appearing

Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets

REITs & banks starting from low valuations

Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside

A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard

External shocks more dangerous than local issues

Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA

Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering

Nvidia chart still healthy

Gold still bullish

Oil looks very weak

Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."

❄️ Be safe this festive season

🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)

🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets 🌍 Shyft – the global money app 💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

📆 3 December 2025 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend.

Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence.

Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises.

Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

❌ slow

❌ bad at text

❌ struggles with edits

NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

⚡ insanely fast

🔠 perfect text edits

🎨 clean output

Alphabet has:

💰 massive free cash flow

🌐 billions of users

📢 advertising infrastructure

→ Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

⬇️ Only Meta is below.

Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

Conclusion:

🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.

More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively.

Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

Breaking support levels:

⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.

Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

Q3 2025 GDP:

📈 +0.5% QoQ

📈 +2.1% YoY

🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

Reasons:

👍 GDP uptick

⬆️ Credit upgrades

⬇️ Lower expected inflation

⬇️ Lower rates coming

🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

Yields: high single digits

Winners depend on style:

💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

Formerly Capital & Counties.

Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

Fundamentals:

💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

📉 Yield 2.7%

📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

SA REITs had:

🚀 Huge 2024

📈 Strong 2025

Many now trade around NAV:

Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

Octodec → still at discount

Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

Small caps that surprised everyone.

Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always: 💙 Look after yourself. 🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

dd

📅 26 November 2025 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!

💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction

🥇 Harmony goes big on copper

🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery

📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks

🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product

🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.

🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.

💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

PE

Dividend yield > 3%

Price-to-book: 0.7

🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.

⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.

💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.

🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model.

🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

🎮 Tencent Games

🎵 Tencent Music

📺 Online ads

📱 WeChat ecosystem

🎥 Epic Games stake

🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.

🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.

🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.

⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade".

📉 Technically:

Support at ~$180

Next support ~$166

Further support ~$150s

🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop.

📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

Only Meta sits below (-10%).

Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).

Amazon also soft (+5%).

🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.

🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).

⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.

🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures

✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.

🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧺 Basket:

🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)

🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

💸 Auto-call feature:

Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout

If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year

Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

🛡️ Capital protection:

100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)

🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025

📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)

🥈 Gold Fields — 37%

🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)

⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends

⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%

🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)

💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%

🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total

🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+

🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%

📦 Nampak — -18%

🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%

🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%

💊 Aspen — -10%

🛢️ Sasol — -10%

🏘️ Balwin — -7%

🍔 Famous Brands — -7%

🧱 PPC — -5%

🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%

🏥 Netcare — -4.8%

🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📈 118% total return over 10 years

📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)

📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)

📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis

🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

💬 Tell us in the comments:

Which 10-year winners do you own?

Which stats shocked you most?

What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

Microsoft: +5.4% above

Amazon: +6.5% above

Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

Quarterly dividends

TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

Tax-free account eligible

~20-year unit trust track record

Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

~9% USD yield target

Pays in ZAR on the JSE

~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

Inflation at 3.4% — within band

Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

Budget passed without drama

Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

Limited in-person seats

Webcast available

Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

Power issues stabilised

Independent water supply

Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

Record 16,000 monthly sales

Scale still growing

Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected.

Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

Now back around 17.20

Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

Holding firm, not running

Key levels:

Support: ~R39,20

Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

Currently steady around R4,050.

S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

Looking rough under R90,000

A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November)

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

Simon's view: 🚫 Do not remove HEPS. HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn't justify removing a critical metric.

Two strong trends right now:

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon's preferences:

Others:

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold? While gold trend remains intact.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November Host: Simon Brown Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

When will markets crash? 🤯📉

Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out. 🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

IPO priced at R19

Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

No big pop → but not a failure

Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon's stance: ✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation ✔️ Holding ✔️ Looking to build the position over time

October sales: 55,960 units ➡️ Best October since 2014 📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season ✅ Still good news for motor retailers

SA remains junk with Moody's, Fitch & S&P Global

Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

S&P may consider upgrade in November

MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But… 💬 Citadel's Maarten Ackerman: "Not so fast — upgrade may still take time."

Key stat: Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

Price: $3,964 at recording

Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors): → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

China offers:

Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality: China still holds the real leverage here.

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

There are always scary headlines.

Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

Timing the bottom is even harder.

If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don't go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Conclusion: Staying invested wins — unless you're already drawing retirement income.

Markets will crash — we just don't know when

Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don't try to be clever

And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down."

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

"Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds." Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture.

Simon Brown 🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 653 – Gold Crashes, Markets Burn, and Optasia's JSE Listing

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.

PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.

Retail pain: TFG* dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price*, and even WeBuyCars.

U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA's bloodbath.

Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.

Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.

Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025. 💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November. Valued at around R20–25 billion, it's one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked.

Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe).

Scale:

120 million customers/month

32 million loans/day

$13m total daily loan value

Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)

Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪

Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.

Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.

Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.

Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1).

But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s).

Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets.

💬 Verdict: "I'm not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough."

Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

Headline earnings: +25%

No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.

Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA's #2 brand.

Legacy luxury brands are struggling.

Historic returns:

Share price last decade: 12%

Dividend yield last decade: ~10%

Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this. Still, Simon's holding: "I'm not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price."

📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients: Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift. Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast). 🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power. Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

🪙 Gold's epic run ends with a sharp pullback.

📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers.

🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE.

🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback.

🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 652 — "Dividends, Gold, and Gearing Gone Wild" 📅 15 October 2025 | Hosted by Simon Brown | Powered by Standard Bank SHYFT

Gold is unstoppable! 🚀 Now trading above R4,100/oz, the yellow metal has clocked eight consecutive green weeks — the longest winning streak since early 2024.

Simon digs into:

Gold weekly chart

🔥 The small-cap buzz continues!

ASP Isotopes (📊 JSE-listed) soared 34% after being added to a Morgan Stanley National Security Index, thanks to its defense-related tech.

🗞️ Trump shocked markets promising 100% tariffs on China, triggering a:

📉 Bitcoin slid 10%, altcoins dropped 20–50% — and many over leveraged traders got liquidated. Simon's tough love 💬:

"If a 10% move wipes you out, you're not trading — you're gambling." 🎲

He explains gearing simply:

Following last week's small-cap value picks, Simon scans big JSE names offering strong income 📊:

✅ Gold's bull market still strong — no legs down yet. ✅ ASP Isotopes & Renegen merger heating up. ✅ Beware leverage — crypto is wild enough. ✅ Dividend stocks offering serious income on the JSE. ✅ Buffett Power Hour this Thursday — don't miss it! 💼✨

🎧 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT — 💳 The global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments, with the lowest Forex rates.

👉 Subscribe to Worldwide Markets wherever you get your podcasts. 💬 Follow Simon on Twitter/X: @SimonPB

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 651 — "Value on the JSE? We Find the Cheapest Shares" (8 October 2025)

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀. He also unpacks:

Simon's recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends): 🏆 Top Performers:

📉 Laggards:

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

Simon's criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

Property & Small Caps: 🏢 Ascension, Safari, Emira, Octodec — deep discounts to NAV, juicy yields (~8%). 🚍 Putprop — Western Cape bus operator, tiny but intriguing (PE 5.7, yield 3.5%). 🏠 Calgro M3* — low-cost housing builder, due for results soon; Baldwin also looking attractive.

Media & Industrials: 📺 E-Media — PE 4.8, dividend ~12%, cheap but illiquid. 🪵 Sappi & Mondi — paper industry under pressure. ⚙️ Invicta — PE 🪓 Master Drilling — exposure to gold & copper, global operations, decent IP. 📦 Mpact — tied up in Caxton's bid & Competition Commission delays.

Consumer & Financials: 🛋️ Lewis Group — "a bank disguised as a furniture store," 10%+ yield, strong results. 🏦 Investec, ABSA, Nedbank — cheap banks with high yields and solid balance sheets. 🧓 Old Mutual — ~9% yield, launching a bank soon; well positioned in bull markets. 🚗 Motus & CMH* — benefiting from decade-high vehicle sales. 📦 Stor-age*, Spear, Growthpoint — steady property plays; prefer those with discounts to NAV.

Other Notables: 🐟 Sea Harvest & Oceana — solid businesses, but "fish stocks make for tough investments." 🪙 Sabvest — style value play, small discount to NAV. 💼 HCI — resolved union cash flow issues, trades below asset value. 🎙️ African Media Entertainment — great yield (10%), but beware of liquidity traps.

✅ There is value on the JSE, but many bargains are illiquid — trade carefully. ✅ Liquidity traps can hurt even when valuations look great. ✅ Dividend yields + solid cash flow are strong signals of resilience. ✅ Always DYOR — "Not financial advice."

2025 continues to be a strong year for gold, ETFs, and SA banks, with pockets of deep value emerging across small caps and property.

💬 "Markets that are going higher make us feel richer — but if we're positioned right, they actually make us richer." — Simon Brown

🌍 SHYFT, the global money app from Standard Bank — travel, shop, pay, and invest globally with the best Forex rates anytime, anywhere.

👋 Closing Note: Nine more episodes to go this year! Simon signs off: "Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else as well." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Chinese data keeps disappointing, every since the -7.5% export data from April. Expected was a strong rebound after they lifted zero-covid restrictions. But not happening.

Just this week;

Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces a acquisition in Latin America for US$290m on a price/sales of ±3x and PE of ±5x. This is a classic Stephen Saad sort of deal. Strong cash generation to pay down the debt.

After having gone quiet when the balance sheet case under serious pressure (with debt of ±R50billion) Aspen is back?

Chart looking good for a break higher.

Forward PE of ±12x is below 1 standard deviation over last twenty years and looking cheap.

Charts by KoyFin, click here for 15% off a two year subscription.

Central bakers have very few tools to achieve their mandates around inflation (and in some cases also protecting a currency and aiding GDP growth). Interest rates have a blunt lagged effect and their only other tool is what they say and we need to understand this central banker speak.

Last week it was the South African Reserve Bank MPC rate announcement that left prime unchanged for the first time since November 2021. The vote was close and the governor spent a lot of time saying they had not finished hiking, this was just a pause.

The Federal Reserve FOMC has been saying the same about pausing before more hikes.

But any hikes will surely be data dependent which is what they always say. So the threat of more hikes is central bak speak for don't get too excited.

* I hold ungeared positions.

As expected Local CPI for June came in at 5.4%, lowest in twenty months and well within the 3%-6% target range from the South African Reserve Bank. Yes base effect as June last year was the first +7% inflation print of this cycle.

When do we start talking rate cuts? Truthfully not yet, a pause would be nice eve as the gov always targets 4.5% not the range.

Simon Shares

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are the magnificent seven. They account for 55% of the index.

A phrase coined in the late 1990s for Microsoft, Intel, Cisco Systems and Dell Computer as they stormed higher in the dot com craze.

All had horrid collapses and took o a decade plus to recover their dot com levels and Cisco and Intel have been modest investments at best with Dell delisting.

Are we seeing the same with the magnificent seven?

Yes, no, maybe.

It is different this time, they all have real tech and make real profits. But have they gone wild on the AI bonanza? Absolutely. Now sure, AI will only get better and all seven have a real chance of be the real leaders in the space (in different ways). But valuations are stretched and this current earnings season is important as are the next few as well.

Simon Brown

Two-pot system is confirmed, here all the details

Simon Brown

SA Inc watch list.

Building a list of stocks that are cheap, very cheap, and could give good return n the next year or three. Criteria;

Using Koyfin I get 46 stocks including REITs and detail them in the podcast. I'll create a watchlist on Google docs and share that link in time.

What about just the mid cap ETF from FNB? FNBMID. Sixty stocks but problem is the top holdings are; Sibanye-Stillwater*, Discovery*, Nedbank, Bidvest and Remgro. That's already ±25% of the ETF and none really for my requirements as above.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Local CPI 6.3% for May (lowest since April 2022) from 6.8% in April and vs expected 6.5%. A very good number and we should see June below 6% as June last year was the first +7% in this cycle at 7.4%. Simple base effect should put some serious pressure on inflation over the next few months.

So is inflation largely over locally? Probably.

Can we start talking about when the MPC starts cutting rates? The next MPC rate announcement is July, the day after we get June inflation and we'll see that the governor says. But cuts are maybe fourth quarter fo this year, at soonest. Standard Bank thinks another 0.25% hike later this year and consensus is cuts only starting next year.

dd

Just this week Spar (JSE code: SPP), MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) and Telkom (JSE code:TKG) have all cut dividend to zero.

We had big dividend payer Coronation (JSE code: CML) drop theirs to provision for the SARS fine and historically good dividend payer Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) reduce theirs.

This shows the pain that companies are experiencing, not all, but certainly some, It perhaps also shows quality, for example Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) increased their dividend.

The problem is we love dividends for cash flow and they tend to grow ahead of inflation, sometimes well ahead of inflation. They're also taxed better than traditional income from bonds or cash (albeit not as low as CGT). But the downside is that any dividend can disappear at any time.

For investors such as myself, reduced dividend is not a big problem. I like the cash flow but don't need the income for expenses. For those living on dividends the pain is real. If the income is required you need a good amount of bond and cash investments and REITs that aside from the pandemic pay consistently, albeit REITs reduced over the last 5 or 6 years.

Another option is something like dividend aristocrats (we have a local and offshore ETF for these). Here we have companies with decade long track record of paying dividends, but remember Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) was in the local dividend aristocrat ETF, so even this is not guaranteed. But a basket or ETF works well.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

Sun City visit. Excellent resort, but very quiet which many commentators suggest is because it's a random weekend in June?

I sent this past weekend at Sun City, vacation club. Some thoughts.

The resort is world class, well maintained with a ton to do for kids and adults.

1/n pic.twitter.com/29yaV2GP8b

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) June 5, 2023

Not yet but building a watch list with the plan being to buy 10-15 stocks over the months ahead.

Why?

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

If you held the share yesterday at close on Tuesday 23 May you will see PPEN in your account. 10.20567 for every 100 Purple shares you held.

Each PPEN (letter of allocation or LOC as some are calling it) entitles you to buy 1 new Purple share at 81c.

If you do NOTHING by 6 June they disappear with ZERO value

Sanlam will take their R45m and of the R105m public offer they will take up to ±R76m of the R105m if nobody else does. Existing large shareholders have promised to take up their rights at ±R28m. So at the end of the day they will get the R105m.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

I have been talking about a cracking (broken?) consumer for a few months now. Two recent surveys show exactly this data.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

Bretton Woods essentially created teh US$ as a reserve currency

Now all commodities trade in US$

The end of the US$ is as old as time, really kicked off with the advent of the Euro in 1999.

But who take over?

That said, the US$ will lose influence over time. It has been and will continue to do so. One day it may well be over, but we're a very long way from that.

Simon Shares

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

But my worry is it is priced +2x valuations of the other four big banks and it is now largely a mature bank. Sure low cost base, but I do not think it deserves that high valuation so am likely exiting after holding since 2009.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

Current open trading positions, long everything

My 7/21 trading system has me long all the indices I trade as below;

Simon Shares

* I hold ungeared positions.

Top40 stocks, top and bottom performers pic.twitter.com/zwZlJkRpwX

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) April 3, 2023

Simon Shares

They are great

But tax.

Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) is 20%. The maximum Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is 18% after the annual R40k exclusion.

And DWT you pay along the way, eroding your return over time whereas CGT you only pay at the end.

Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a dividend and he says they never will. Rather sell he says, more tax efficient.

Share buys backs are more efficient, but done at high valuations destroy capital.

No easy answer, but maybe we should temper our love?

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

Simon Shares

ff

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

Simon Shares

Spur (JSE code: SUR) results vs. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR).

* I hold ungeared positions.

Budget 2023

Great insights into the budget, who should be our finance minister and even the Coronation* (JSE code: CML) Con Court appeal against the SARS judgement.

Simon Shares

AI has suddenly landed and it's going to be wild.

I rate it with some other major technological paradigm shifts;

All were horrid when they launched. But now they drive humanity.

Facebook getting their ads working AI after Apple locked them out.

Search is changing and will Google be the new winner.

We use Dali-E for images on JOL

Chat GPT is great, but it is not accurate. That is actually a design feature, but this is only version 3.5 and already lots of people are using it for real world practical examples.

How is it going to change investing and trading? I don't know but I know many, myself included, are trying things to see what works and what actually adds value.

Quick update, I buying Coronation (JSE code:CML) at ±3750c.

View my portfolio ==>> www.SimonBrown.co.za

All listed companies are mentioning load shedding in their updates.

"The Group's additional spend on diesel to operate generators across our Supermarkets RSA store base in order to trade uninterrupted during load shedding stages five and six amounted to R560 million for the period."

For the six months ending 2 January 2022 operating profit was R5,113billion. So load shedding costing the group ±10% of operating profit?

"A large portion of the capital expenditure commitments amounting to R737 million, outlined during the F2022 results presentation, has been placed on hold given the current adverse market conditions. The Group has however committed funds towards backup electricity generation solutions to reduce the adverse impact of load shedding."

Simon Shares

This is well worth a listen, some important data points from @StefMarani that help understands the road ahead .. https://t.co/6CGNRd6QUe

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) January 24, 2023

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

Food inflation is still high, 12.7% YonY for December.

But likely peaked (good rains, diesel lower and reducing input costs)

Preferred food retailer?

* I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show.

Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2023 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2022 predictions show here.

I've been buying some Zeda on the JSE.

- Here's why

- A bit about the business

- Risks

- Possible target price

Oil below US$ 80, the first time this year.

Simon Shares

Chinese covid-19 cases hitting new records, by a long way.

This has real implications (bad ones) for the global economy as the second largest is going to be struggling in 2023.

Chinese covid cases since the start of the pandemic

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

It feels really bad but the JSE has had a fair year with sen decent winners as the two images below show.

JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (winners)

JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (losers)

Binance buys FTX.

No, they walk away.

FTX goes bust.

Keep your coins in a hardware wallet, not on the blockchain unless you trading it. I use a Ledger Nano S Plus.

What's the future for crypto with another exchange hitting the wall?

* I hold ungeared positions.

So you bought a stock and it's done good and you're making money, maybe even lots of it.

Now what?

* I hold ungeared positions.

After the results, are any FAANGs worth buying?

FAANGs, a mixed bag with Meta (NASDAQ code: META) the biggest loser.

Is it worth buying or what of the other FAANGs?

Apple (NASDAQ share code: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ code: AMZN) would be my picks. Why buy the losers?

fff

The Fini15 (JSE code: STXFIN*) is the only green index so far in 2022 and the strongest bank YTD? Absa (JSE code: ABG).

Simon takes us through the journey of finding the strongest sectors and then the strongest shares to find a trade where the money is.

My lazy system has triggered buys on both S&P500 and Nasdaq. A close above last night's close and I'll be long pic.twitter.com/8HAisLdPZr

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) October 26, 2022

* I hold ungeared positions.

Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) horror update.

"working capital requirements are especially acute"

"financial results for the six months period ending 31 December 2022, to be at least 100% down"

This is not South Africa at all, it's Australia and the US. We've seen Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) walk away from their Australian operations.

Low margins and bankers not keen on bonding projects are going to crunch this industry globally. I would suggest Aveng (JSE code: AEG) is not immune either.

The only time this industry really made money was in the run-up to the world cup, and they were colluding to get operating margins of +5%. So really this is a bust industry.

That all said, decent results from Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) while we wait for Balwin (JSE code: BWN).

Simon Shares

Here the UK 5, 10 & 30 year bonds for September .(with correct carts) . Just September pic.twitter.com/hMj5yP65bC

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) September 28, 2022

The US$ Index (code: DXY) is at twenty-year highs and within a few percent taking out the highs from the early 2000s and heading back to levels last seen in the mid-1980s.

The reasons are simple and two-fold;

Importantly this is hitting every currency in the world.

Has earnings implications for US companies selling products offshore as those profits are now lower due to US strength.

When does the strength stop?

What to do?

The tables have turned. Emerging markets are much more resilient against the US Dollar than the rest of the G10. Year-to-date, the Dollar has risen a stunning 15% against the G10 (black), but only 5% against emerging markets (blue). EM is the new standard bearer for stability... pic.twitter.com/ToaQvQB9DS

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) September 27, 2022

hh

The problem is getting back to target.

Rate increases still coming, likely into the new year before pausing.

Then the long wait for inflation to get to target (or near) before rates start coming down. In the US this is at best 2024 but probably 2025. Locally rates may start moving lower in early 2024.

Simon Shares Trading

Simon Shares

Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results saw the stock down 7.5%. Let's dig into what the market maybe didn't like.

But Shoprite remains one of the best food retailers globally and a core holding in my portfolio. I have bids in the market at around R170 which would put it on a PE closer to the mid-range from the last decade.

Sixty60 grew 150% and remains the absolute market leader in the grocery delivery space.

Checkers Xtra Savings has 24.7m members and it turning into a bank account.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Murray & Roberts weekly chart Not a lekker chart, I've held for a while, but am now out #JSE pic.twitter.com/BKKP4HOLhr

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) September 4, 2022

Simon Shares

Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

Our deadline is September/October after being put on the watch list last year.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

Sasol: To answer a separate Q: The EBIT profit split is: •Energy: 58% •Chemicals: 42% (Despite the high chemicals contribution, it is amazing to see how closely Sasol's profit still conforms to the old back-of-a-matchbox calc of 5% of the Rand oil price.)

— Karin Richards (@Richards_Karin) August 23, 2022

* I hold ungeared positions.