Markets Explained

The US midterm elections loom this week, but with the polls suggesting at least some loss of control for the incumbent government, the outcome may not be big news for markets. The latest economic data is therefore likely to be more instructive, and with US payrolls on the docket, there is plenty to discuss.

In this week’s podcast, Hugh is joined by special guest Jon Ingram, Head of the Unconstrained team within the International Equity Group. With mega-cap tech earnings having been met with disappointment by the market so far, Hugh and Jon unpack what investors most want to hear from company management on AI capex, as well as how France’s political volatility is impacting European stocks.

The news flow this week, whether from highly indebted data centre builders or the French riots, is a reminder that higher bond yields will always create stress somewhere.

In this episode, Hugh and Karen dive into the upcoming earnings season and highlight the questions on their minds in the tech space and beyond.

The US labour market could have added fuel to the bond market fire last week, but in fact it still looks broadly stuck in a ‘no hire, no fire’ pattern. With more and more oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz, one might also have expected the bond market to calm down. Hugh and Karen share their initial thoughts on what’s still worrying the bond market.

On this week’s podcast, Hugh and Karen discuss the latest developments in the oil markets, including talk of diesel export curbs. They also highlight why the rise in bond yields has more to do with the resilience of economic growth than with inflation, and why equities are, so far, unfazed.

In this podcast, Hugh and Karen pick up on the latest political headlines from both Germany and the Middle East. They remind us why the economic implications are often far more sanguine than the political headlines would suggest, and why the bond market will act as the disciplining force, serving as judge, jury and sometimes executioner for bad politics and bad policies. The equity market, meanwhile, continues to ride the wave of economic resilience.

Lots to discuss again this week, with conflict raging on in the Middle East, central banks under pressure to raise rates and bond markets still unsettled.

In this week's podcast, Karen and Hugh discuss the latest flurry of economic news which suggests the global economy is weathering the barrage of shocks thrown at it. They also share their immediate reaction to the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer’s first speech and ask: having talked the talk, can the Chancellor turn those words into effective policy action?

Bond markets are off to a bumpy start in September with government borrowing costs rising sharply around the globe. In this week’s podcast, Karen and Hugh break down what is troubling bond investors, how policymakers may respond, and whether equity investors need to worry.

This week, Karen and Hugh discuss recent strong economic data and lingering inflation concerns that are pushing up bond yields. They then delve into what to make of the bond market interventions we’re increasingly seeing from finance ministers and treasury secretaries who are grappling with higher interest rate costs.

The market is wrapping up a stellar earnings season with growth broadening by geography and sector. No wonder markets keep hitting all-time highs. Karen and Hugh break down the earnings news and discuss what the macro data suggests about the outlook from here.

In this week’s episode, Karen and Hugh reflect on the outlook for inflation and the Middle East, what the earnings season tells us about the broadening of opportunities, and why it’s a good time to invest despite the geopolitical turmoil.

Following a busy week for central banks, Hugh was joined by Iain Stealey, International CIO for Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, to dissect the recent rate decisions and look at where global government bond markets are offering the best value. The pair also discussed last week’s US earnings reports, as well as why markets may be especially sensitive to this week’s US labour market data.

It’s a big week for central banks, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all meeting. Karen and Hugh expect policymakers to talk tough as they seek to reassure markets that rising oil prices will not lead to another inflationary spiral. They will also discuss the latest learnings from the US earnings season.

This week Hugh was joined by another special guest – Callum Abbot, UK equity portfolio manager and Head of Systematic Active Core Strategies – to discuss last week’s earnings results, which parts of the UK stock market could be most impacted by new political leadership, and whether the European Central Bank might surprise investors later this week.

In this week’s podcast, Hugh welcomed a special guest – Sam Witherow, Head of Global Equity Income Strategies – to tackle re-escalating tensions in the Middle East, the most important things to watch as Q2 earnings season gets into full swing, and what a change of leadership in the UK might mean for UK equity valuations.

In this week’s podcast, Karen and Hugh discuss what the market likes about last week’s US payrolls report and delve into why the surge in the DAX is feeding Karen’s optimism about the prospect for European stock outperformance.

With the market having a bit of a tech wobble last week, we talk about how to make sure portfolios aren’t too vulnerable to AI bumps. We also look ahead to US payrolls and what this means for the Fed as well as to the challenges faced by the next UK prime minister.

Another busy week ahead as investors continue to digest the outlook for oil prices and broader markets following prospects of a deal between the US and Iran. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh ruffled US Treasury market feathers with his first meeting, and now the UK faces its seventh prime minister in 10 years. Tune in to hear what Karen and Hugh expect to dominate the market narrative this week.

In this episode Karen is joined by Iain Stealey, International CIO, Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, to discuss the deal between the US and Iran and explore why, despite the apparent resilience of markets in recent weeks, this development is still likely to generate significant moves.

In this podcast, Karen and Hugh outline why the US payrolls report was looking a bit too hot last week and why this week’s inflation print will be critical ahead of the Fed meeting next week. They also discuss why the upcoming US tech IPOs are unlikely to rattle markets short-term but that they will add a vital piece of information to help us assess how to invest in the companies bringing AI to the world.

While a concrete deal between the US and Iran remains elusive, the market is hopeful that the Strait will at least partially re-open while talks continue. Investors will also have to focus on ‘payrolls week’ with a flurry of information about the US labour market. Will the labour market heat up and put pressure on the Fed to hike this year or will the labour market stay relatively weak despite a booming economy? Is AI doing all the work? And will this week’s inflation data set the ECB up for making a policy error? These are some of the issues Karen and Hugh discuss this week.

In this week’s podcast Karen and Hugh discuss the latest developments in the negotiations between the US and Iran, some feedback from J. P. Morgan Asset Management’s global shipping team about how quickly energy markets could normalise when the Strait reopens, and why we all need to keep an eye on developments in Japan.

In this week’s podcast Karen and Hugh discuss how markets are getting more jittery about a prolonged conflict in Iran, how the summit between Xi and Trump fits into the narrative, and what the latest uncertainty in UK politics means for the Gilt market.

On this week’s podcast Karen and Hugh discuss whether markets are looking through the Middle East conflict, what higher oil prices might mean for US inflation due out this week and what the gilt market makes of the latest developments in UK politics.Visit our homepage to learn more about the Market Insights programme.

In this increasingly tumultuous world, what should investors see as a signal? And what should they dismiss as noise? In this weekly podcast Karen and Hugh do exactly that – they digest the newsflow and work out what it means for global investors.