Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a remarkably resilient equity market even as the fresh spike in oil prices weigh and global bond yields have rushed to new highs for the cycle in many key markets. Looking at US equity market internals, the impact of Anthropic CEO Amodei's call for a "slowdown" in AI development (and perhaps Trump's aggressive poo-pooing of the idea) seems a more important factor for this market, as key AI hardware names sold off and many software-as-a-service companies rallied steeply on the day. Lots more on today's pod on commodities with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and on macro and FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links A great LinkedIn post from Felix Martin (HT to the great Izabella Kaminska) with a round-up of other links to the debate on open-source (usually really open-weight) versus closed source AI models - not necessarily drawing the same conclusion that the market drew from Anthropic's "slowdown" call. One of the better links was to a Toby Nangle FT column on the open-source threat to hyperscalers as well. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a heady cocktail of developments are coming at us across geopolitics, intermarket forces, but especially a new twist in the AI story as Anthropic CEO Amodei calls for an AI development "slowdown" with other key industry voices chiming in with supportive comments. We discuss what this may be all about as risk sentiment is rather spooked by the story and by the latest surge in oil prices and bond yields still pressing on cycle highs. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen breaks down the latest COT report showing shifts in positioning across the US futures market complex, including some huge shifts in the FX space. Arnaud Bertrand says China is hyperscaling an AI data center far beyond anything the rest of the world has ever seen in the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia. WSJ runs an article on Russia's new generations of drones, which are applying new levels of pressure on Ukraine. Cory Doctorow with a very different take (LLM's are real, AI is fake) on the infamous "Hugging Face incident" as he pokes fun at the breathless anthropomorphizing of how AI agents hacked into systems and used message boards to communicate, etc., arguing that all of their actions were fully based on training data and showed no sign of intelligence. Many cool sub-links in this piece as well. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the rip higher in global yields as crude oil prices spiked and the ECB surprised on the hawkish side of expectations. The market is trying to recover its equilibrium on hopes that a Monday meeting between GCC members and Iran will set things right. In the meantime, we have the US CPI report to get out of the way today, an FOMC meeting next Wednesday and Bank of Japan meeting next Friday to contend with. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, on currency moves and what to watch for next. Goldman Sachs says that interest rates are set to remain higher and outlines why. LA Times on how the AI future is already here for some forms of video entertainment in China. Some profound thinking on where we are in the "interregnum" as we transition away from the old world order and into the new one.  A taste: "Gramsci’s interregnum, the “time of monsters” when the old is dying and the new cannot be born, has become a cliché of our political moment, which is usually a sign that it is true. But what it means precisely is this: the conceptual frameworks adequate to the old order have ceased to describe reality, and the frameworks adequate to the new order have not yet been assembled." Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the fresh pop in US treasury yields to new cycle highs after the Treasury market buyback and Treasury Secretary Bessent's posturing failed to shore up confidence. Elsewhere, it was a rather negative day for risk sentiment on the latest aggravated rise in crude oil prices and that rise in yields, with Europe particularly spooked ahead of today's ECB meeting. We note key equity stories like Apple's (Gen Z targeted?) pricey new foldable phone, Meta's pop on the enthusiasm for its Muse AI agent. Most of all, we queue up what to look for over tomorrow's US CPI release. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Trump wants cheap hamburger meat ahead of the mid-terms. Matt Stoller covers the story and shows what this may cost him politically with some of his base - and what it may cost those consuming the questionable meat. Yikes.  The FT version of the widely covered resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that the company is not doing enough to enforce safety guardrails and that AI could end humanity as the company and OpenAI are "'gambling' with the future of mankind". Michael Every reposted a news item on X that Germany's Deutsche Bank will be appointed as the clearer and settler of RMB (Chinese yuan) transactions in Europe. Wasn't the EU supposed to be gearing up for a less friendly face to China on concerns it is undermining EU industry with its cheap and subsidized exports? (HT FTAlphaville) A Bruegel long-form piece poking into the factors that are driving the rise in long-term interest rates - it's not just about fiscal profligacy. ProPublica earlier this year looked into how Trump might look to call the mid-term election results into question if they are not favourable for Republicans - a high risk on this front, but how high when the president himself is so unpopular? Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a thorough look across the commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, discussing the latest developments in oil, refined products and the natural gas markets, the drivers for the recent record highs in the copper price and whether that price remains "too low" relative to gold if suppliers are to increase production. Elsewhere, a discussion of the latest moves in equities, a still heavy focus on FX and rates as the yen is on the move and yields are pushing on the highs for the cycle ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and US August CPI report up on Friday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Does heavy AI us mean that students don't learn as much? Probably, but there are nuances. "In China and many other countries, well-designed tutoring tools already exist, often at nearly zero cost. Most students just do not use them. Rather, they prefer general-purpose AI tools that make it easy to outsource homework." Erik Townsend points out the very high cost of the most recently completed US nuclear power plants and wonders if the new ones can be built (by a South Korean outfit) in the US at prices that are proven possible elsewhere and some 75% lower. Stumbled across another interesting post on NexGen Energy and long-term uranium supply as well. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, noting the significant technical break lower for USDJPY and what may come next, with spiking energy prices somewhat of a headwind for JPY bulls and for global risk sentiment in general. At what point could energy prices suddenly seize more of the market's attention bandwidth? Elsewhere, we look into the record copper price, which is partially related to Hormuz Strait woes, Amazon's abuses of its monopoly status, geopolitics and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, focusing mostly on the yen. Cory Doctorow carves up Amazon for its "payola" practices and aggressive extraction of profits, even for shipping, from the sellers on its platform. Here's a podcast that goes into where risk may be hiding in the cozy relationship between some insurance companies and private credit outfits.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, most interesting to note that the positive US jobs report was unable to inspire sustained new highs in US treasury yields or spark a US dollar rally, with USDJPY even breaking down below critical support to start the week as US markets are closed for the extended Labor Day holiday. Elsewhere, AI hardware stocks are trying to get back their mojo as OpenAI has released its latest model. More on the earnings and macro focus for the week ahead and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links An X post by "JH" describing the alarming copper supply shortage that must be overcome, likely with a tremendous price signal, if we are to continue building out AI and electrifying our economies. OpenAI's chief scientist with a piece on the prospects of AI achieving new levels of super-human intelligence and the implications in a piece somewhat ominously titled An Alien Mind. In the wake of watershed Germany elections at the weekend in Saxony-Anhalt and other events across Europe and elsewhere, Michael Every's latest piece follows the threads connecting political events across Europe and around the world.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the very confusing comments from the Fed's Waller, who waxed dovish so soon after Chair Warsh's recent hawkish musings that the market doesn't know what to do with the next FOMC meeting. Gold and crypto rose sharply on Waller's comments. Also, important incoming US jobs data today for the US treasury market, but especially for USDJPY after the big move higher in the JPY this week, which arguably has more fundamental support than previous rounds of official intervention were able to provide. This and much more on today's pod, especially on another good day for Tesla and whether we are at some kind of Cybercab inflection point. Hosting today is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Bloomberg discusses the odd meeting of Japan's largest (and word's largest) pension fund and whether this means a raise of allocation to Japanese government bonds, with this story likely an important contributor to the recent JPY rally. A Tech Crunch article discusses Tesla's polling the market for anyone interested in operating Cybercab fleets. I didn't cover on today's pod that apparently, the post-Cybercab event coverage late yesterday was somewhat negative.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at markets pausing to take a breath after the recent brutal rise in bond yields. The biggest mover Wednesday and Thursday was the Japanese yen on an apparent fresh round of intervention, although some interesting dynamics are at play in the Japanese government bond market as well. Elsewhere, a look at extreme bifurcation in AI stories for single names after earnings reports. A big focus on macro and FX and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Breathlessly enthusiastic Silicon Valley types talk up the most optimistic outlook for AI I have heard anywhere. Who am I to say they won't be right, but it was a bit nauseating listening, nonetheless with interesting details here and there. Gil Duran wrote the ingeniously titled Nerd Reich, a book charging that a tech oligarchy is undermining our democratic institutions and trying to establish a techno-authoritarian state. He traces the intellectual backdrop of its adherents like Peter Thiel, etc. A long form youtube video of the author himself talking about the book. An exchange on X about China's huge debt load and its implications depending on how it is unwound - Japanese-style or otherwise. The deepest of dives on "what really happened at Jackson Hole" - not the ramblings of Fed Chair Warsh, but rather on the actual theme of Jackson Hole this year, which was Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of instability that could see volatility rising further in the near term, not that it has risen that much yet. Elsewhere, a lot of macro and FX coverage, especially on the aggressive spike in front-end Japanese rates to price in a more hawkish BoJ, and yet the yen is sluggish in its response. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ole's latest piece pointing out that many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons. A Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies. This sparked an great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip on the nature of the US-China relationship and the utility of pursuing a Chinese currency revalution (higher) after Greg Ip wrote an op-ed in favour of the world forcing a CNY reval.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today a look at the implications across markets as global yields are breaking higher at the long end of the yield curve, from the US 10-year, which hit a new 19-month high, to the German Bund hitting a 15-year high and 10-year JGB a 30-year high at 3.00%. We have a busy macro calendar for the week ahead as well, particularly for the US. Elsewhere, we note the spike higher in natural gas prices for Europe, the driver's for Tesla's big advance yesterday and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Dwarkesh Patel's writeup on the crazy "Hugging Face indicident" that was so much more, as AI agents went rogue and even took control of an AI research cluster at one point.  Germany's political "firewall" against the far right may crumble in Saxony-Anholt in this weekend's elections. Jim Bianco looks at the largest single driver of the swelling in S&P 500 profits this year: Anthropic's valuation! Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish posturings at the Fed's Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday and the reaction across markets, which seemed most decisive for gold more than for the US dollar or risk sentiment more broadly. Also, we wonder how much more the market can get out of the Fed's hiking potential as we await the next move from Bessent and company at Treasury if US treasury yields rise from here. Much more in today's pod on FX and macro and the busy week ahead with host John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy. Links Michael Every was recently on Thoughtful Money recently and I found the discussion of stablecoins the most enlightening, a bit more into the specifics and the assumptions needed to make this work than I have heard previously from Every and others. Katie Martin wonders, as we also do on the podcast, when the "new age of financial repression" is coming. Mark Zuckerberg's Social Reckoning. (The New Yorker) A WSJ op-ed frets the risk of a US food crisis, in part on fertilizer supply chains that run through the Middle East and China  On X, Paulo Macro points out a string of recent magazine covers that should warm the hearts of AI bubble bears. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a rundown of key commodity markets as oil markets remain tame and refined products are the bigger pinch point, gold and silver seem ready to rally anew if Fed Chair Warsh fails to roll out a hawkish stance in his speech today, and grain and soft prices are likely set to record their strongest month in years. Elsewhere, the stock market is putting on a show of strength on the surface as everyone hopes, bond traders included, that Fed Chair Warsh is set to give the markets some clarity on his stance on policy today. Can it be so lucky? Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator put out a priceless piece picking apart the absurdities and dangers of the current market environment - a must read for both content and the high entertainment value. The FT's Robin Wigglesworth with a NY Times op-ed on how the AI debt binge could sink the economy. Friend of the show Peter Garnry out with a piece on LinkedIn warning to be careful about celebrating the idea of "asset light" companies and what to focus on instead.  One of the FT's most read pieces today is how junior consultants are being called  back into the office to practice their human skills, which are becoming more valuable in the age of AI. The irony! Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we look through three of the key earnings report seeing very positive market responses, topped by Nvidia's strong report and outlook. We go through the details, the good points and a few concerns in places. Elsewhere, macro is quiet and a lower oil price is helpful, but grains are on fire, in part linked to geopolitical concerns that continue to present difficult-to-quantify risks. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links As Michael Every predicted, the US is now considering the equivalent of "letters of marque" or 19th century and earlier era policies allowing private operators to serve as extension of US power overseas, for things like seizing Iran's oil. Today's very compelling set of FTAlphaville Further Reading links very much worth a browse. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, while crude oil prices were crushed by Strait of Hormuz headlines and bond yields responded to a degree, much of the market is in a holding pattern ahead of a string of event risks that may or may not provide what the market is hoping to get from them - especially Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh, not to mention today's Nvidia earnings release after the close. This and much more discussed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the importance and geostrategic implications of the US-Canada trade stand-off, even if the current 50% tariff threat only impacts a small portion of the trade relationship. The geopolitical implications of the US threat to counter Iran's "enablers" are also considered, together with the latest news flow on AI data center financing stories, incoming earnings from Nvidia and other interesting names this week and much more, especially what to watch in the US and European sovereign debt markets. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Michael Every X post highlighting key geopolitical points and why this latest round in the US-Canada "trade war" is critical stuff. The New York Times covers Powerus, the company already manufacturing thousands of drone interceptors a month in the UAE. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's threat to cut off Iran's economy from the world, focusing especially on its "enablers" - what might that mean for new US-China tensions, which have been put on the back burner for quite some time? Volkswagen wants to make some deep cuts to capacity and may repurpose some of its factories for defense. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at Treasury Secretary Bessent out trying to massage the market again after the Wednesday treasury buyback announcement failed to crush long US treasury yields. The treasury's actions continue to provide fuel for the sharp gold and crypto rallies. We also note that the market's so far modest correction is getting us close to pivotal technical territory for the S&P 500, with one critical earnings report up next week for the AI space. This and much more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Have you heard of SLM's (Small Language Models that can run on a PC/laptop), these might have performance parity with LLMs for large percentage of AI tasks, which could - could - call into question the need for the scale of hyperscaler spending we are seeing. Fed piece on stablecoins: Payment stablecoins and cross border payments: Implications for monetary policy implementation. There is no one like The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who waxes dramatic as only he can on the dire risks of a US debt crisis. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, looking of course at the impact of the US Treasury's increase of its treasury buyback program and the knock-on effects across asset markets, particularly the plunge in the US dollar versus hard- and even more so crypto assets. Importantly, we don't feel we have all of the answers, but hopefully we are asking some of the most important questions and pointing out the pivotal developments to watch as we head for what is now a much higher stakes Jackson Hole appearance by Fed Chair Warsh next week, after the Treasury has sent this critical signal. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a thorough look at the commodity space, especially crude oil as hopes for relief from geopolitical tensions fade and how it may be weighing on broader risk sentiment. With Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, we also take a look at copper market dynamics and grain and soft developments as geopolitical and El Niño risks weigh. We also sift through broader equity market dynamics and the risks that we are heading into a bearish correction here. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Coverage of Cerebras' latest chip and claims of huge potential advances in inference computing efficiency. As well, WSJ covers a new semiconductor startup Etched, which shows that technical disruption risks in the AI compute hardware space are significant.  Polemic Paine with a thorough look at factors that have him concerned we face a significant equity market correction in the US. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a brief wrap of yesterday's equity market session in the US, which repeated some of the recent AI hardware vs. SaaS performance divergences. A couple of key AI-chip and hardware names reported with results that didn't satisfy the market. We also look at the US CPI release and the reaction across macro, noting a key US treasury auction up later today. Also, we read aloud a great email sent to us by a long-time SMC listener on the chaos that AI LLMs have unleashed on IT operations for companies and the internet. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Cory Doctorow again on AI model collapse, with a particularly interesting link to a Lauren's data Substack post wonderfully titled "Temperature Zero for Culture: Why Everything Is Starting to Look the Same." Which makes us proud to produce a very non-AI generated podcast every day that doesn't try to be like anyone else. There has been a lot of overage of Bill Ackman's latest position changes from his Pershing Square 13F filing. Here's a useful X post that usefully pastes in the coverage from his letter to shareholders. The link from the email read on today's pod on the Hugging Face hack incident: the YouTube video link works, while the summary link Mr. O sent me did not contain the summary. Michael Burry on Palantir being worth less than a dollar/share. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, an emphasis on the importance of this US July CPI hurdle today and different scenarios based on what the data shows, all while emphasizing that geopolitics and the crude oil price are a very important independent variable as well. Also, a look at more AI hardware companies reporting yesterday and the market reception of those earnings reports as well as the next batch of AI-adjacent companies reporting today. Some quality links discussed in today's podcast as well on everything from Fed communication policy to the risks from AI replacing search. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Aitken Advisors James Aitken ponders whether Jackson Hole is becoming a more significant event risk after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flubbed his latest press conference.  Mike Green is striking out on a new adventure, one that will eye opportunities in the inefficiencies created by increasingly dominant passive flows. Michael McNair responds to a Stephen Roach substack article on China's Deepening Japan Problem.   Michael Every's latest Global Daily from Rabobank, with some great comments and sub-links Canada's The Walrus with a great piece discussed on today's pod, outlining the risks to the entire quality of the internet as AI results replace Google search. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we delve into the ongoing development of the "super el Niño" weather phenomenon, running through the difficulty in assessing the scale of potential impacts. Elsewhere, oil markets and refined product markets are spiking on the latest escalation in supply uncertainties from the Middle East. This we discuss with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, together with the factors driving the recent gold and silver resurgence. Elsewhere, markets look potentially pivotal on the reaction to Wednesday's US CPI release as US long treasury yields are pinned at cycle highs. Plenty of single stock stories and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links FT covers Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending with some of the world's largest financil groups. FTAlphaville asks how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout. The answer seems to be "a lot". The St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as China only dominates one of the key two production types. Also, a preview of the many interesting names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Aakash Gupta points out the potential scale of impacts if this El Niño is as disruptive as the late 1990's one, which he argues compounded to a cost of US 5.7 trillion over the following 14 years. An FT exclusive delves into how Google puts in place the financing pipeline to drive USD 200B of spending on Anthropic, especially to sell its own chips to the company.  And Ed Zitron suggests that 70% of Microsoft, Amazon and Google's AI-related revenue is derived from the black hole of OpenAI and Anthropic unprofitable spending. ChipTycoon, an info-animation, shows the complexity of semiconductor supply chains in the style of the Rollercoaster Tycoon game.  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the latest market moves as we position the importance of Friday's US jobs report, noting the reaction to key incoming earnings from Western Digital and Sandisk in particular and the impressive rally move in gold and silver. Considerable coverage as well of Victor Niederhoffer, a larger than life Wall Street figure who died this Tuesday and whose life inspired and touched countless speculators and professionals over his career, including this podcast host, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links The all-time must read article for want-to-be speculators: The New Yorker article by Malcom Gladwell: Blowing Up, comparing and contrasting Victor Niederhoffer and Nassim Taleb. The Henry Clews book Fifty Years in Wall Street. This book inspired Niederhoffer's giving out canes to people who offered valuable inspiration while writing his column for MSN's MoneyCentral. Education of a Speculator - the legendary book. Recent (less recent than I said on podcast - actually latest I can find is from this February) Mark Spitznagel prediction on one final meltup followed by 80% crash in stocks. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the very strong day for US equity markets yesterday as the S&P 500 vaulted to a strong new all-time high amidst broad gains across sectors, with tech stocks roaring higher but the Nasdaq 100 not yet reaching a new peak. We look at the SpaceX earnings announcement and market reaction, including the announcement of a new Nvidia-chip based Starmind concept that is intended as the platform for the eventual SpaceX space-based AI data centers. Elsewhere, a look at the latest action in Macro and FX, especially whether the gold and silver surge yesterday suggests greater potential from here. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links SpaceX's new Starmind AI1 concept - a compact data center unit based on the next generation Nvidia Vera Rubin chips that will start in earth-based data centers, but is intended for SpaceX's eventual space-based data centers. The legendary Barry Eichengreen on "The real message in the JPY intervention". About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the broad market in a positive mood as recent divergences between AI hardware and other names were nowhere in evidence. We zoom in on Palantir's incredible quarterly reports and the wild and entertaining earnings call with CEO Alex Karp, wonder how SpaceX can deliver anything notable today relative to the company's valuation, and preview AMD, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack post with many links, including on AI. John's The FX Trader piece from this morning, focusing especially on the recent coordinated JPY intervention and EURJPY. 69 Starship launches to get one decent payload to the moon? A Starship skeptic speaks out on concerns related to the idea of SpaceX using these space-based depots of fuel to extend the operating range of Starship.  Arnaud Bertrand challenges Palantir's AI Sovereignty framework, although Palantir's results spoke quite loudly late yesterday, as did CEO Alex Karp himself. Tungsten as an indicator of war risk and once again, a mineral supply chain that China dominates. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the implications for a stronger JPY from coordinated intervention as the US has joined forces with Japan to force yen appreciation. As well, we wonder what the implications are for equities now that we trade with a much cleaner slate after reaching the other side of blowups in leveraged single-stock ETFs and the liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund late last week. A busy week ahead for earnings and macro and more also previewed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market returning to its past form as AI-related hardware stocks ripped higher even as the median stock on the S&P 500 posted a negative day. Also, a look at the many interesting earnings reports up next week, a rundown of the action in FX after massive USDJPY intervention and a Bank of Japan meeting and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. John's The FX Trader piece from today.  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market's concern that this Fed isn't determined to get ahead of inflation and the impact on US treasury yields, which spooked market sentiment broadly in the US yesterday. Elsewhere, Microsoft's strong earnings report after the close is doing what it can to stabilize risk sentiment, even as the market soured further on Meta on its earnings call. Today and tomorrow feel high stakes with the negative shift in sentiment after the important FOMC pivot point, and Apple and Amazon are reporting after the close today. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links WSJ Fed reporter (no longer whisperer?) Nick Timiraos with a good quick take on the contradictory messages and takeaways from this FOMC meeting. Are the memory prices just too darn high? FTAlphaville takes a look. ArsTechnica reports that Anthropic's Mythos is finding bugs faster than Microsoft can fix them. Mike Green with a forensic investigation of the pump in semiconductor stocks in Q2 and to what degree leveraged ETFs were to blame (Behind paywall, but can be read for free as a one-off).  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we wonder if the back side of SK Hynix's earnings report overnight and the popping of the leveraged ETF bubble in some of the single tech names has now largely run its course - leaving the market for its next move - whether broadly up or otherwise. Certainly, a key event risk like today's FOMC and/or Friday's Bank of Japan meeting could serve as a pivot point. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the intensifying sell-off in high momentum AI hardware names, led by a an ugly meltdown in the two Korean memory stocks overnight. Meanwhile, the broader market posted a very different and far more positive day, an intensification of recent patterns. Also, we looked at the recent Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings reports and the coming reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Apple with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Finally, a preview of the FOMC meeting tomorrow in the macro and FX discussion and much more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Macro Strategist John J. Hardy. Links From what appears a credible source on X on the risks from the AI transformation to Alphabet's/Google's legacy "benevolent monopoly" business model. Bloomberg weighs in on the circular financing concerns linked to Nvidia after a spate of recent stories. Meta is fighting a mountain of social-media lawsuits, possibly worst legal challenge in its 22-year history. Ford joins race to build the next US light duty vehicle for the US military. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at a few things that unfolded late last week in reaction to some of the first big earnings reports of this quarter and preview the week ahead, which is the biggest one for this quarterly earnings cycle. It's a big week ahead for macro as well, as the FOMC, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are all up later this week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a conversation with special guest Peter Garnry, co-founder of Gesda Capital on choosing and valuing stocks for the long run, observations on the current state of play in AI as expressed in equity markets, the Meta and other news this week and its implications, whether AI can truly scale as hoped and so much more, even what Peter is reading these days. I'm sure listeners will enjoy this conversation. Links IBM IBM CEO interview we referenced on the podcast on the future of the AI rollout. There is also this newer one - probably a lot of overlap. The Abraham Lincoln biography Peter Garnry referred by John Meacham. and the John Kim book The Tao of Fund Raising. The Gesda capital website. John's latest FX Trader piece, including the impact of the US jobs data. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at global equity markets roiled by Meta's announcement that it will rent out use spare data center capacity for AI applications, raising concerns for AI-linked cap-ex and all stocks linked with the "AI picks and shovels" theme even as it was read as a boon for Meta's stock itself. Software as a service and consulting names also rallied on the news. Elsewhere, Japan is intervening against JPY weakness, sterling is breaking higher and we have a US June jobs report today ahead of a three-day weekend for US markets. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ole's awesome article on the sub-7 kg technical marvels used by Tour de France cyclists, and the commodities they contain. Michael McNair TLDR piece on SiriusXM holdings and, among other things, why it might have large suitors for a takeover. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

John's piece: Wall Street at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next. Today, a round-up of another session with AI hardware momentum names rocketing higher, while the broader market was largely sideways. Elsewhere, crypto and gold are both teetering near or beyond key support at critical technical levels, while we note an ugly turn in one part of the US Consumer Confidence picture. Finally, a look at Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium as it enters directly into the space-based communications fray with the big boys SpaceX and Amazon. And, with the USA set to turn 250 years old this Friday, we note today's link of the day on the USA through a Wall Street lens as it turns 250 years old this Saturday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the latest strong session for some of the market's highest momentum names, as we note with some caution the risks that leverage, especially not fully evident hidden leverage is a mounting risk for the most speculative corners of the market. We also preview Nike earnings as the company does not yet look like a bargain after its 77% fall from all time highs into yesterday's low, unless it surprises strongly today after the close. Some thoughts on macro, FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links FTAlphaville with coverage of the rising costs of equity financing on margin and concerns into today's quarter-end. Bloomberg also with coverage of leverage and especially the hidden leverage as some combine margin lending with  options buying, even on levered ETFs. What could go wrong? About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a much zanier Friday session in US equities than the almost flat close on the S&P 500 suggested as market internals have become wildly divergent, much of it linked to the market's bucketing of AI winners and losers. Elsewhere, as Volkswagen sets up a possibly 100,000 layoffs, in part on weaker Chinese demand and greater competition from cheaper Chinese EVs, and as Europe roasts with record high temperatures, will Europe's trade policy toward coal-burning China harden on climate grounds? As usual, macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links See Friday's John J. Hardy substack, in which I discussed the AI winners and losers on the very day when market internals went especially haywire along the fault lines of this theme.  A WSJ article suggests that one of China's latest AI models may match the ability to exploit cybersecurity vulnerabilities shown by Anthropic's Mythos.   FTAlphaville with an excellent article wondering whether the current AI revolution may echo some of the impacts on labor and capital that marked especially the early decades of the Indutrial revolution.   About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy substack post. Today, a look at some incredible volatility and cross-currents in the US equity market as Mag7 continues to come in for a beating as chip stocks soared once again. But then the two Korean memory makers stumble overnight, perhaps on Samsung announcing it my plow KRW 1 quadrillion (about USD 650 billion) into cap-ex over the next decade. Elsewhere, the market gave Apple the thumbs down for its greedy plan to make even more money from its customers due to higher input costs. Macro and FX and a busy event risk calendar next week and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, the blow-out Micron earnings report is doing all it can to revive the AI hardware momentum trade, and it will be interesting to see how the huge jump in Micron shares ages into the options expiry this Friday. Elsewhere, the US dollar has continued its rally, but will fresh drivers for further strength be hard to come by? A focus on sterling's upside potential on the potential Burnham political revolution unfolding as well. In commodities, we discuss the latest on crude oil and gold and especially silver getting into existential chart territory. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece on whether USD can find fresh fuel and special GBP focus. Bloomberg piece on a hedge fund manager looking to short private equity in interesting ways New York times piece on what kind of managers have demanded that their workers stop working from home.  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the drivers of the stronger US dollar as it pulls to new highs for the year and what may be holding back USDJPY from participating in the greenback rally as those forty-year highs from 2024 approach. Elsewhere, yesterday's US equity market session was so far mostly only a one-off meltdown in high momentum stocks, with the median stock positive on the day. Massive interest and potential implications in how the market reacts to Micron earnings after the US equity market close today. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Link WSJ looks at China's attempt to "lure the world to the yuan" - and it's not just Iran and Russia that is taking the bait. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post - you won't want to miss today's links! Today, a huge vibe shift overnight as Korean memory stocks come unglued Tuesday, sending US equity market futures into a tailspin. Is this just a bit of retrenchment ahead of Micron's earnings Wednesday after the close or is the market at risk of a bigger air-pocket? Elsewhere, the US dollar is breaking higher, but with USDJPY not participating at the moment on fears of intervention after Bessent-Katayama call. Also, some follow up thoughts on climate after yesterday's super El Niño / AMOC collapse discussion and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and even mining output could suffer significant disruptions. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo looks at the impacts for key equity supply chains, insurance and energy. This, a round-up of what to look for in the week ahead as the US dollar is in breakout mode and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ole's recent thorough survey of the key commodities markets that could see an impact from El Niño Ruben's recent piece look at El Niño risks from an equity sector angle, particularly the impact on supply chains. As mentioned on today's pod that while the equatorial Pacific is heating up, there is a "cold blob" in the North Atlantic, possibly suggesting something is going wrong with the important AMOC, the critical Atlantic Ocean current system that keeps Europe warm, among other impacts. Craig Tindale made a few comments on the cold blob on X and also links to his longer form post on how we are modeling climate change poorly, not properly appreciating feedback loops that could accelerate our climate impacts. Here is a good, "popular science" look at the AMOC and the feedback loop risks if the Greenland ice melt threatens to shut it down. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we highlight another high energy day for the equity market, with semiconductor stocks screaming back higher and the US dollar continuing its move higher post-FOMC, even as we question whether the market is anticipating the future path of Fed policy appropriately. A focus on the worst performer in the S&P 500 today: Accenture, which was pummelled 18% to an almost nine-year low on fears of additional AI disruption even as the company scrambles for a new business model to have an answer for the age of AI. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's latest The FX Trader update Accenture knocked post earnings as it is scrambling to redefine itself - good coverage from FT. Izabella Kaminska with more of her usual second order thinking on how to position the USD 300 billion package in the Iran deal. Odd Lots podcast interviews the venerable Jeremy Grantham, who has seen a think or two in his 87-plus years. WSJ profiles the success of the Lynas CEO in building its rare earths capacity. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Link As discussed on today's pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement. It wasn't specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max supportive move lower in crude oil yesterday, showing that lower oil prices have lost their impact as macro driver. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack with more links, if you missed these. Craig Tindale's latest on "Who owns the chemistry that turns metal into power." Laying out why those critical materials are so critical and the systematic changes required to address the issue if China isn't to maintain its dominance and leverage. Peter Garnry on SpaceX and how truly rare  it is to see the kind of growth that some are anticipating for this company - with only two prior examples that are even in the same universe for a company of size. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week. A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face.  FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows. The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.) About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, the usual suspects knee-jerked higher Thursday on Trump's latest peace declaration as crude oil dropped, while the other usual suspects (software as a service) were some of the worst performers ahead of Adobe's earnings release after the close. Also, a strong discussion of the status for gold, copper, crude oil and El Niño with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, a look at macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links FT suggests that the quantum computing revolution may be coming sooner than we think. Jesse Felder on the Thoughtful Money podcast, pointing out some concerning trends within the AI phenomenon and suggesting we are near a bubble top. A recent Matt Stoller substack post, mostly just encouragement to follow his work and to read his book Goliath and to point out his link to this old post from May of 2009 about Wall Street's capture of Washington - something that Treasury Secretary Bessent has promised to do something about. The new Kevin Warsh Fed will have a critical role to play if this is ever to amount to anything. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-or moment technically and thematically as the USD remains strong. Lots more on macro and FX and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links In "The abundance illusion" noted oil industry analyst Jeff Currie notes the risks the oil market (and the wider global economy) faces this summer as seasonal demand rises inexorably while oil has yet to begin meaningfully flowing through the strait of Hormuz again. Also, he notes China's "New Joule Order" which has its own tremendous implications as the country puts its energy system resilience on display. HT to FTAlphaville for another great link today, this one to a Kardamow substack article that discusses the same concerns Currie discusses in the above link, with some more data specifics. An FT Article looks at US attempts to piece together a "dark transit" system for oil tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait via a narrow and risk shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast. Stratechery.com has a much more positive take on Apple's AI strategy with Siri than the market's very negative assessment in recent days, in a piece it calls The iPhone's Last Stand. This year's Microsoft Build conference is seeing the company's Project Solara announcement, the company's attempt to envision a new operating system and network of new devices, among other things, aimed at addressing the transition to the agentic AI era. The Verge discusses this as well as Microsoft's broader AI strategy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at what the further acceleration in US- and other market volatility means, particularly for the highly speculative chip stocks that have seen the greatest gains this year, even on a day when the broader market and median stock closed in the green. Elsewhere, gold is melting down and faces a critical support level soon if the selling continues. This and much more on macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Today's only link is to an excellent FT op-ed "Why are we still arguing about the Industrial revolution?" that complains about the attempt to use poor quality 19th century data that provides few insights on how the Industrial Revolution transformed society and the types of available jobs as we attempt to anticipate how AI will transform our current society and the job market. Instead, we should consult the best fiction writers of the time, who provide excellent qualitative documentation of the impact of the industrial revolution.  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market trying to continue its bounce-back from Friday's meltdown in especially chip stocks, interesting news flow on the AI data center financing front, lots on macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Today's The FX Trader from John The great Izabella Kaminska with second order thinking in an X post on the possible signal from China's ability to crater its oil imports. "Is the iPhone birth control?", asks an academic paper FTAlphaville links to, which is a study linking the launch of the iPhone in the US with lower fertility. Now imagine what widespread immersive AI will do... About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, putting Friday's big market sell-off in perspective as an overdue development after the huge recent ramp in high momentum stocks. Broader risk sentiment remains fairly calm, though there is a bit of stress from geopolitics and higher oil prices, as well as on crypto and from a stronger US dollar and higher US treasury yields. Lots to focus on this week and next with the incoming earnings of note and the first Fed meeting led by Fed Chair Warsh next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider Saxo's outrageous prediction for this year regarding the SpaceX IPO and one of the main things - or perhaps the main thing - Elon Musk hopes to achieve in going to Mars (link below). Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links We took a stab at predicting the scale of the SpaceX IPO  (undershooting badly!) and some of the true reasons for Elon Musk's passion for going to Mars in the Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2026 released late last year. The Register discussed Salesforce' "waving bye-bye" to its User Interface as it opens up its data to a trillion API calls from other platforms, including increasingly Anthropic  via its Headless 360, a programmable agent platform. The constantly shade-throwing Futurism (ironically a bit Luddite at times) with an article questioning whether CEO's are suffering from AI psychosis as they are out of touch with the struggle for AI to get traction at ground level in their organisations. Is AI making some people feel and act dangerously over-competent and what are the risks if so? (HT FTAlphaville) About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the very different outcomes for the two admittedly very different software names Salesforce and Snowflake as both reported earnings after the close yesterday. Elsewhere, insane volatility for Marvell in yesterday's session ahead of its own earnings report after the close - are the wheels coming off a bit here for chip names.  Also, Gold needs to take a stand here or else, plenty on macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Michael Burry points out that VC has gone whole hog in AI, similar to the situation in 2000 with TMT bubble. Acquired put out a four-hour episode on the fascinating history and phenomenon that is Ferrari - these guys are great.  FT with an exclusive on Ukraine turning the tables in its war with Russia - amazing innovation and rates of production for their at least partially homegrown tech. Stratechery with a brief discussion (paywall) of the SpaceX IPO, both quite dismissive in some ways, but also surprisingly supportive of the idea that space-based data centres could be a thing. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy substack (and yes, embarrassing bad math from your host in today's podcast) Today, we try to keep observations balanced as we observe the latest race higher in memory chip makers after a big bank posted a jaw-dropping price target for Micron. This helped pull the broader market higher, as did the recent drop in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at Ferrari's stumble with its new EV, note today's important earnings calendar, break down the latest in macro and FX and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at quantum computing stocks getting a big bump on public investments in the space in the US. Elsewhere, it remains all about AI stocks pumping higher, while one notable software-as-a-service (Saas) name was the S&P 500 index's worst performer yesterday. Interesting earnings reports are up next week on both the chip and the SaaS front. Also, some more macro and FX observations and concerns that we are none the wiser on the Iran War ahead of a long weekend for US markets. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Blonde Money is worth a follow, particularly recently on the UK political situation. Passive investing might blow up the stock market once it has become too dominant, at least according to models. The discussion is rambling, but some great nuggets in there. The valuation maestro Aswath Damodaran puts together the case for a SpaceX valuation of USD 1.2 trillion. Nasdaq bending over backwards to secure the SpaceX listing will guarantee enormous passive allocations to the company very early on, whatever its general level of financial success. Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital has his own assessment of SpaceX after the drop of its pre-IPO S-1 filings. Worth a read. And the public domain shy Albert Edwards made an appearance on the Odd Lots podcast, talking the risk of double-digit inflation and the general mayhem that he often sees right around the corner. Always worth listening to, if not for any well-timed market call. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, the prospect of perhaps the most anticipated IPO ever is overwhelming the market's interest in processing Nvidia's latest earnings report, which checked all of the boxes, but no more. Elsewhere, the latest headline risks from the Iran war are pointing in the right direction, but pointing isn't enough - we need a deal to bring more profound relief to bond markets and perhaps as well to keep the USD bull at bay. Important trading day tomorrow ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend in the US. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen brings key perspective on the latest US oil and product inventories report. There is a risk that the age of agentic AI and Ad-supported LLM's could put the interests of the Ad-buyers way ahead of those of the end-users. Worth considering the potential conflicts of interest. Jeremy Grantham's GMO wrote back in January that if at least two of the "big three" potential IPOs happened this year, it could represent a risk to the broader market.   About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, markets are looking pivotal across the board ahead of the single biggest earnings report of the quarter as Nvidia reports after the market close today. Is the AI chip focus shifting a bit more toward inference and away from GPU's? Meanwhile, in the background, US and global yields have pressurized focus on broader equity market valuations and even FX is trying to come a bit more alive here on the rates focus. And that's all without considering the ongoing headline risk from the Hormuz Strait and Iran war. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links A radically new commercial and military airplane concept, the JetZero Z4 is getting serious funding for actual production and is set to break ground on a production facility next month. AI radio stations, DJ and all - listen at your own risk, listeners, or rather, biological processors. A very funny and fascinating experiment pitting four of the top LLM's against one another. WSJ covers the declining popularity of AI in the US- a slight clash with the scale of growth currently priced, no? WSJ with another piece, this once on US juries and rising lack of trust in the US justice system as well as the points of view of others on the jury. The implications of the "post-truth" society we live in - how can institutions every find renewed trust?  Molten lead nuclear reactors coming to Sweden? It's not as crazy as it sounds. There is even an Oklo angle with this Swedish company Blykalla. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at markets that are - and should remain - a bit nervous given the big push higher in global yields of late. Up ahead, we have some huge tests for this market, including Nvidia's earnings report Wednesday, a critical Starship launch pre-SpaceX IPO. And once SpaceX does IPO, how will that impact Tesla shares as the Musk faithful will suddenly have two vehicles to choose from. Also, the USD surge, sterling comeback, other earnings ahead and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Bloomberg covers Meta's insane USD 200 billion data center A writer on Medium.com (paywall) questions whether SpaceX's Starship is a white elephant after Reuters reported the company has already sunk USD 15 billion into the project.  And once SpaceX IPO's, what will it mean for Tesla share holders as the Musk faithful suddenly have two vehicles into which to sink their life savings? Saxo's own Charu Chanana covers the latest Berkshire 13F filings tracking their Q1 additions and reductions from their portfolio. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at global bond yields setting the agenda across markets, the "nothingburger" Xi-Trump summit failing to make waves, the king of earnings reports coming in this week in the form of Nvidia's call after the close on Wednesday, a look at key macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links Bloomberg article says power prices are spiraling higher in the US' largest electric grid due to data center demand FTAlphaville says that China is not Japan, but "its real estate market has been doing a darn good impression." Mike Green was on Macrovoices, talking passive investing, lack of inflation risks and potential for Fed cuts surprisingly soon. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a rundown of the market largely springing quickly back from a vicious semi-conductor sell-off ahead of critical potential incoming news as Jensen Huang is set to join Trump in Beijing as we await the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit. Is a deal afoot on semis and more? Also, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen on the outlook for oil, interesting signs of precious metals resilience given the backdrop, what is driving the big pop in wheat prices and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links George (not Thomas) Friedmann talks geopolitical situation, particularly Russia, US-China summit. Bloomberg exclusive on China's massive hidden debt piles. A brief and brutal assessment of why the UK can't get its economy back to the way it used to be, because things simply aren't the way they used to be. A hedge fund manager on why he steers clear of tech stocks. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today - a Korean politician sparked enormous volatility in the key chip names there on suggesting the idea of a "citizens' dividend" to be extracted from the companies' enormous profits. It's an important test of the chip space after the recent parabolic run-up in key names. Also, the lack of progress in the US and Iran re-opening the Hormuz Strait has the US dollar pushing higher on higher oil prices ahead of the US April CPI release. Elsewhere, sterling is under mounting pressure from political uncertainty as Gilts also suffer. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.   About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the massive further ramping in the hottest AI-adjacent hardware names on Friday, although it was a former SaaS victim that rallied hardest in an ironic twist. Elsewhere, we note one of the more exquisitely timed AI-related IPOs set for this Thursday, while we await the historical moment of this week's Trump-Xi summit and the titanic stakes. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Today's links: Been reading Chokepoints as I have previously noted - a critical book for understanding the leverage that economic (and financial) chokepoints provide, and an important work in light of the heavily intertwined US and Chinese economies. An excellent Deutsche research piece on the "return of history" as gold is set to become a potentially dominant presence in global central bank reserves. And as noted, the Back Mechanic, a book kindly recommended to me by a podcast listener on getting your back in shape and avoiding the kind of trauma I am currently suffering with a herniated disk.   About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at US market performance behaving very differently yesterday as some software names got a big boost on an otherwise negative day, in part on DataDog's earnings result. Also, an interesting geopolitical signal comes out of Greenland, while there is plenty to talk about in macro and FX even if FX volatility remains restrained, waiting for US jobs data and next week's critical Trump-Xi summit. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's show: The Goldman Sachs research report on "Tracking the Trillions" in AI spending - very thorough look at many of the issues in understanding the risks in the assumptions about chip lifespan and much more. An X post that looks at how the massive cap-ex spend on AI will drive S&P 500 earnings projections through next year, even if balance sheets are less robust on the other side. Craig Tindale's massive work on how we are looking at climate change risks in the wrong way, with risks of ugly feedback loops in key systems that could accelerate change in ways the generalist models aren't.   About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Here is today's John J. Hardy substack post. Today, a look at the latest run-up in semiconductor names, especially after AMD reported earnings yesterday after the close and whether this almost parabolic action in the SOX index is some kind of mania phase in this market. Also, a look at the latest in macro and FX, as Japan's Ministry of Finance seems to be out showing its determination once again to strengthen the yen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the remarkable US market and its seeming immunity to any external development and what that suggests about where we may be in some sort of bubble super-cycle, one that has the host thinking of 1929, perhaps because he is reading the great book of that title by Andrew Ross Sorkin. Also, a look at Palantir's incoming earnings, FX moves and the US dollar and incoming earnings and macro figures of note. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we discuss the key companies reporting in this week's earnings bonanza with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, including Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft and Apple. We also note Nvidia's big drop on an otherwise positive day for the market - a concerning sign. Next week features several companies of note. Elsewhere, we note everyone rushing to declare a top in the crude oil market because of a classic Economist cover indicator. Really? Finally, a look at the macro and FX space, where the focus is on a strong bout of JPY intervention that sparked significant JPY volatility. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today - how the market is parsing the titanic capex plans for the four Mag7 companies reporting after the US market close yesterday. With crude oil prices spiking aggressively, maintaining the AI exceptionalism trade will prove difficult unless prices back down. Also, a far more interesting FOMC meeting than was expected as Powell vows to stay on and put up a fight for Fed independence, a fight that is doomed to fail. Elsewhere, Japan fights against JPY sell-off while recording today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a modest market setback ahead of the single most important day on the earnings calendar this quarter, as four of the Mag7 are set to report earnings after the close today - each with its own twist, but overall with the focus on the scale of capital expenditures and cloud growth. Also, a look at yesterday's incoming earnings of note, energy (including of the nuclear sort), macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. A link for today: billionaire and trading legend Paul Tudor Jones was on the Invest like the Best podcast, mostly talking great life- and trading lessons more than markets, but very much worth a listen. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy substack post. Today, challenging the notion that energy prices can remain here or go higher and risk sentiment can stay stable as we wonder where the market's pain point is. It's either that, or we must see clarity emerge in the Hormuz Strait to justify the equity market's strong sentiment. Also, a look at companies reporting yesterday and today, macro and FX, the Bank of Japan's meeting today and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the continued incredible ramp in semiconductor names and whether we are inflating an incipient bubble, even if forward valuations in many case look quite reasonable. Elsewhere, we note the lack of progress in opening the Hormuz Strait and the implications that continue to multiply with every day and week that crude oil and refined products aren't reaching the global market. Meanwhile, we have peak earnings season and five central banks meeting this week. This and more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the collateral damage in software-as-a-service land after ServiceNow shares suffered a nasty markdown yesterday after reporting earnings. We also look Intel's massive advance and other big movers on the day, and preview next week's peak-earnings season calendar with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Also, a preview of the five G10 central banks meeting next week, with the Powell's swan song FOMC meeting next Wednesday. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a concentrated market rally in the US yesterday, led by big picks and shovels names in AI, with GE Vernova leading the pack, even as market breadth was flat and risk sentiment is wobbly elsewhere on Iran continuing to obstruct shipping through the Hormuz Strait. Software-as-a-service names were under pressure after the US market close yesterday on ServiceNow reported earnings, the first major SaaS name to do so for this earnings cycle. Also, Tesla earnings, macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Luke Gromen was on Macrovoices last week and makes some key points on the risks to the global economy and markets if this Hormuz Strait crisis drags into summer. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a key factor keeping oil in check - namely demand destruction, as shipping flows through the Hormuz Strait remain at a trickle or less. Also, the factors supporting a still positive outlook for copper even at these levels. Elsewhere, a run through incoming earnings reports, including the first Software-as-a-Service (Saas) name of note reporting today after the close, which could prove an interesting test for the whole space. Macro, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, as the headline US equity indices finally paused for breath after their recent steep run-up, a run-down of incoming earnings today and tomorrow and single stock stories of note. Also, a reminder that the next 24 hours or so are critical for the degree to which headline risk is set to pick up from the Middle East as the US and Iran are meant to meet in Islamabad. Also, a look at macro and FX moves and what to look for in the Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a brief look at waking up this week to the latest headline risks from the Hormuz Strait, which have only weakly impacted US equity futures, while European equities are weak out of the gate to star t the week. Elsewhere, we delve into key earnings reports last week from the big US banks, European luxury makers and Netflix and upcoming earnings this week, including Tesla and Intel, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Also, a look at confusing incoming US labor market and other data and more data on tap tomorrow, a look at the US dollar's status and more. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ruben's post on Oil, EV batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race Thoughtful Money podcast interviews a US freight market expert: early signs of a US manufacturing renaissance? On the Iran War, James E. Thorne says Iran is unraveling, not winning, and discusses the implications of this war. Michael Green has a catch-all post discussing Iran War, taking non-alarmist angle on crude oil outlook, the divergent outlook in the US for Services (negative) relative to manufacturing (positive) and more. (One-off free post option if you haven't subscribed yet)   About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the US market completing one of its most remarkable comebacks ever as it ramped off recently lows to hit new all time highs in such quick order, even as high oil prices linger. We note the types of names that advanced and the lack of market breadth, wondering how the market will develop from here now that volatility has been crushed and with the heart of earnings season on tap over the next two weeks. Also, a look at the remaining questions over Iran, latest action in currencies and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the US dollar and risk sentiment now having come full circle and even then some in individual cases from the levels trading prior to the outbreak of the Iran war as the market prefers to continue to ignore the dire near-term energy supply situation and residual uncertainties, hoping that flows resume in coming days. China's stance is a critical known unknown. Also, a breakdown of the US equity market internals and themes, the status of private equity stocks, key stories and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the further strong resurgence in risk assets, noting in particular the first signs of a comeback in some of the most beaten down names in software of late. Elsewhere, Oracle, the most beaten down name in our AI basket was the strongest performer on the S&P 500 Monday. Also, a look at what looks like a fresh bear trend developing in the US dollar, thoughts on the importance of the incoming Trump-Xi summit and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader from today, covering the USD sell-off, latest reads on FX trends, USDJPY technicals and more. A very long form interview with the great Craig Tindale on China's "gaming the system", the rest of the world's physical supply chain challenges and much more. Shanaka Anslem Perera discusses Iran's short fuse on dealing with any disruption to its oil output flows if the US is indeed going after a blockade on Iranian exports as a pressure tactic. Also, did a US-sanctioned ship bound for China just slip through the blockade? Macrovoices interviewed Adam Rozencwajg on what comes next after the Iran war crisis. (Sustained higher oil prices, he believes.) About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the fresh pain for global markets on the collapse of US-Iran talks this weekend and the new US intent to blockade the Hormuz Strait, at least for any ships that are paying tolls to Iran (and presumably any Iranian ship?). We also wonder how China may eventually weigh in, a key question ahead of a supposed Trump-Xi summit set for next month. Elsewhere, we look at the latest winners and losers in the US equity market as Anthropic continues to make enormous waves for software and other companies. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at equity markets that remain hopeful as key US-Iran talks kick off today in Islamabad, Pakistan. Even so, some big software names were under fresh heavy pressure as Anthropic's latest model release carves a path of devastation across the software universe. Elsewhere, we continue to highlight the importance of spot versus future prices for oil, check in on the status of the USD and JPY and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Let's hope he is wrong but Brent Johnson is concerned that food prices will see enormous impacts due to the disruptions of fertilizer flows from the Middle East, even if shipments were to resume tomorrow. The first portion of his paid substack is available for free. Stratechery does an excellent job putting Anthropic's latest Mythos release into perspective and has an older piece that it refers back to on "Anthropic and alignment" that discusses what is at stake for any leading edge AI company and its relationship with the sovereign. Finally, you can read the latest grand Craig Tindale thought piece on the geostrategic positioning of the US and why it is doing what it is doing. He penned another piece on his substack that also provides a compelling framework for why the US is behaving as it is, that its position "rhymes" historically with that of Imperial Japan after the US cut off oil and   About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market maintaining a remarkably resilient stance despite Iran casting doubts on the status of the cease-fire announcement that so enthused market on Wednesday. A critical round of US-Iran negotiations lie ahead in Islamabad, Pakistan for the next round of headline risks. Elsewhere, we run through the development in oil prices, the USD picture and incoming economic data, highlight what likely sparked an ugly sell-off in Palantir yesterday and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and even LNG closures in Australia, all while US treasury yields and oil are ramping higher again ahead of another weekend. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links: Here is Triggernometry interviewing an expert on the risk that this Iran conflict drags on, but with some interesting ideas as well on how Trump might flip the script. Here is the interview with Kuppy on the Benny and the Squirrel podcast, the hedge fund manager with some worthy observations on current market conditions, the general market environment and his approach to trading. Golden stuff. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusions until more clarity emerges. Elsewhere, software-as-a-service names were under new pressure once again. We also talk macro & FX and even provide a little wrap on the Danish general election from Thursday. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves in US treasuries, a critical market for risk sentiment, as well as reactions and the state of play in major currencies. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Regarding today's discussion on OpenAI and Elon Musk's comment that "OpenAI is goint to eat Microsoft alive", a long-form X post on risks to the relationship. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Markets had been reacting to the war in Iran recently, of course, but perhaps it has been the explosion higher in global bond yields that has triggered a more profound unease on Friday and today. It's also a factor in gold prices suffering a massive meltdown. Today's discussion looks at these factors as well as the ongoing war impacts on the forward oil market curve and the whole commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. As discussed on today's pod, here's a link to some of the key countdown clocks linked to supply shortfalls of key products that are not currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some compelling narratives and reasons for it to continue lower if these are important drivers. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links First the link to Michael McNair X post outlining the big structural shift in what powers gold and why it is under pressure and could remain so here. Then, the latest Goehring & Rozencwajg long-form report on commodities with great coverage of the scale of disruption from the Hormuz Strait closure, some long term historical perspectives on commodities and whether they are too cheap and lots more. Simple registry required to download. Important - following link is highly speculative and I am not endorsing the views, but it's one possible lens for how the situation is playing out. Finally, a massive tweet thread from shipping industry executive John Konrad on how the US may be leveraging this situation to further its strategy of regaining more control over global shipping routes and even ships themselves, together with other possible domestic agendas.  About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with BoJ and ECB particularly in focus for their guidance tomorrow, but with the FOMC up later today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign, while high-flying memory maker Micron is set to report tomorrow after the close. Macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Here's an X Post from Chris Laub discussing a paper that describes why the current generation of AI hardware is poorly designed for the inference needs that are in highest demand and what the implications are - clearly plenty of urgency to streamline the output per watt with future systems designs, from how tasks are routed to the design of the hardware itself. On the Iran War, here's one commenter making a reasonable case that the US has gotten itself in a mess with this Iran War, with few good options on what to do next save for just leaving. We are not endorsing this point of view, just pointing to it. And others think that the Israeli-US strategy is working as Iran's decades of preparation are being destroyed in a matter of days and weeks. Interestingly, Ilan (writer of the first post linked to above) specifically tries to dismantle the second link in another post. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we discuss the markets continuing to price forward expectations that Hormuz Strait uncertainty will lift quickly from here, especially when one looks at the very steep backwardation in crude oil futures and US equity market sentiment. As well, we note that the critical signals in energy market pricing are to be found in key refined products more than crude itself. We also look at the eight G10 central banks set to meet this week, why precious metals are under pressure and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we discuss a sense of unease that the market remains as complacent as it does given the magnitude of the disruption of oil and gas supplies through the Hormuz Strait. We also discuss Adobe's huge stumble despite strong earnings, FX and gold and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links: Anas Alhajji discussing important current state of affairs with the war and oil/gas supply situation. A discussion group on the "US Dollar Endgame" with Michael Every, Brent Johnson, Izabella Kaminska and others. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we try to try to find the signal amongst the general noise level and headlines coming both from the Iran War and the wider region and from the US politicians, especially regarding the status of the war and its intents. Most importantly, we try to understand if the US is actually playing a geostrategic brinksmanship card with China with this conflict and what the consequences of that might be ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit at the end of this month. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war situation, as a "TACO" (Trump always chickens out) may be more difficult to achieve now that the US and Israel or on a full war footing with an Iran that remains defiant and continues to launch missiles and drones. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to confidence looks restrained relative to what awaits if the oil and gas don't begin to flow this week. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods. Towards the end of the podcast, we look at why, even if the short term focus is on the Strait of Hormuz and whether regime change lies ahead for Iran, something far more monumental is at stake. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo also breaks down the earnings reports and market reactions for key companies reporting this week, including Crowdstrike, Broadcom and Marvell and looks at three more key names set to report next week, including Oracle. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. The FX Trader post from today from John.  The Michael McNair post discussing with a priceless framing of the US-China race for control of supply chains as tension builds with the US' latest moves. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.