The Fourcast

US, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are discussing a possible end to the war, with Trump pushing for a peace deal. But the fundamental obstacles remain: Putin's territorial demands, Ukraine's future security and the question of whether any agreement would prevent Russia from invading again.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the latest developments in the peace negotiations.

Is Trump putting pressure on Putin or on Zelenskyy? What would Ukraine have to sacrifice to secure peace? And could a deal leave the country dangerously exposed to another Russian attack?

The boss of Nvidia, one of the world’s most valuable companies, has admitted to an affair. But this is no ordinary corporate scandal. The twist? The woman involved is suspected of being a Chinese spy. 

CEO Jensen Huang is now at the centre of an internal investigation of whether he has been the target of a “foreign intelligence effort” at Nvidia. The company, which is worth £3.5 trillion, sits at the heart of the global AI race. The biggest tech firms, think everyone from Amazon to Microsoft and Google to Meta, use Nvidia computer chips, making Nvidia strategically vital to America’s competition with China.

The tech giant’s stock plummeted by almost 8% when markets opened despite Nvidia denials that company secrets - or America’s national security - has been compromised. Meanwhile the Chinese government has also rebuffed the accusations calling them “baseless”.

So what’s really going on? What could a foreign intelligence operation hope to gain from a company like Nvidia? What information might be valuable to a spy? And what could this mean for the global balance of power in the AI race?

In this episode of The Fourcast, our Data Correspondent Ciaran Jenkins and Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi are joined by Tahlia Peterson, a fellow in the Cyber and Tech team with RUSI to unpack the story and explain why an affair at one of the world’s biggest companies could have far reaching consequences far beyond Silicon Valley.

For weeks, France has been gripped by huge protests which have left the country in chaos and its government in a full blown crisis.

What started as student protests, have grown into nationwide demonstrations - and now strikes - in protest at the cost of living, pay and public services.

But the response from the government has been controversial, with many criticising what they see as heavy-handed tactics by police.

On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by Alice De Brito, the Vice President of the National Students’ Union of France, as well as Steve Erlanger, the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe for the New York Times.

They discuss whether the chaos could pave the way for the far-right, if France can pay for the protesters’ demands and whether the unrest could spread around Europe.

Donald Trump promised to bring peace to the Middle East, but after months of war with Iran, American voters have delivered a stinging rebuke to the president in the midterm elections.

So what does that mean for America's role in the region? And after decades of wars and interventions, has the US done more harm than good?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by the award-winning journalist and author Kim Ghattas. Her new book, The Best Kind of American: Murder, War, and America's Undoing in the Middle East, tells the story of an assassination in Beirut more than 40 years ago, and what it reveals about America's role in the region today.

The midterms have been a disaster for Donald Trump and the Republican party. The democrats have retaken the house and the senate with shock results across the country. So what does this all mean? Is America’s electorate going through another major realignment? And has this completely shattered Trump’s authority? 

On this episode of the Fourcast, Kiran Moodley was joined by Democrat strategist Joe Caiazzo and Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.

Wafa Mustafa has spent years searching for her missing father, who was arrested in Syria in 2013. Before his disappearance, he gave her a chilling warning: if he was arrested again, she would have to flee the country or Bashar al-Assad’s forces would torture her.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Syrian filmmaker Waad al-Kateab and activist Wafa Mustafa join Krishnan Guru-Murthy to discuss their upcoming documentary, Maybe Tomorrow, about Wafa’s search for her father, and the thousands of families still waiting for answers about loved ones who disappeared in Assad’s Syria.

As vote counts trickle in following Israel’s high-stakes national election, results indicate a stalemate. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist bloc nor the opposition coalition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party appear to have secured the 61-seat majority required to form a government.

With both major factions falling short of a clear victory, the country faces a familiar deadlock, leaving Arab-led parties such as Hadash-Ta'al as potential kingmakers. Despite high voter turnout and full-throated campaign endorsements from US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu's bid to secure a stable coalition hangs by a thread.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Secunder Kermani is joined by pollster and former Netanyahu aide Mitchell Barak, Senior Analyst from Haaretz , Esther Solomon and Adalah founder and director Dr Hassan Jabareen.

Andy Burnham came to power promising radical change, a circuit breaker for Britain’s stagnant economy. This was his first budget, meant to lay out his bold vision for Britain. But are we left thinking, is that it? 

Chancellor John Healey announced measures meant to ease the pressure of soaring costs, including a £100 pay out for 20 million households, a rise in the minimum wage and some tax relief for small businesses. He’s targeting banks and the gambling sector with higher taxes to fund his plans.

But his opponents accuse him of kicking big decisions on defence and welfare spending into the long grass at a time when the UK is facing global turmoil driven by the conflict in the Middle East. 

So what are we to make of this budget? John McDonnell who was Labour’s Shadow Chancellor from 2015 to 2020 and Darren Jones, who held several key advisory roles in Keir Starmer’s government, but was sacked in Andy Burnham’s cabinet reshuffle, join to discuss for this episode of The Fourcast. 

Israel is set to vote in its first election since October 7th in what could be one of the country’s most important elections ever.

With Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu having been in power on and off, for 19 of the past 30 years, his job looks under serious threat from challenger Gadi Eisenkot.

On this episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4’s Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Secunder Kermani, as well as the former deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post, Tovah Lazaroff.

They discuss whether Donald Trump’s full-throated support for Netanyahu will help him to remain in his job? And as Israeli voters are about to head to the polls, why are the humanitarian crises in Gaza and the West Bank barely mentioned by those running for office?

With the Budget just days away, Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey face some big decisions. How much can the government afford to spend? Who should pay more tax? And how on do they get Britain's economy growing at a faster rate?But what if we're asking the wrong questions altogether?Former chartered accountant Richard Murphy argues that the government's obsession with borrowing, debt and so-called fiscal headroom is holding Britain back. He believes we have far more financial freedom than politicians would have us believe.So is Britain really running out of money? Or is it running out of ideas?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by Richard Murphy, Professor Emeritus of Accounting Practice at University of Sheffield Management School, and economist Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

In this special audience Q&A episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban answer your questions on the big geopolitical issues shaping our world.

They ask why the West ignored Putin's aggression for so long, why Europe can't build its own rival to Starlink and whether Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion defence spending plan can rescue the US military.

Do you have any burning geopolitical questions you want Matt and Mark to answer? Send us your questions by leaving them in the comments and Matt and Mark will do their best to answer them in a future episode of the Fourcast Indicators.

Argentine President Javier Milei, has declared that the Falklands “illegal foreign occupation” and that his country needs to take them back from the UK.

But 44 years after Britain defeated Argentina in the Falklands War, could another invasion be on the cards?

And with Britain’s military much more depleted today than in the 80s, could they even retake the islands?

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban speak to Chris Sabatini, the Director of the Latin America Programme at Chatham House.

He says that the presence of oil near the islands, as well as his tanking popularity at home, has pushed President Milei into putting the archipelago back into the spotlight.

Is the AI bubble about to burst? And could the trillion-dollar investment boom trigger the next global financial crisis?

Gary Gensler, the former head of America's financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), warns that a major downturn in AI investment could be just 18 to 30 months away, potentially putting banks, pensions and the wider global economy at risk.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Gensler about why he believes the AI boom is unsustainable, whether the world could face another financial crisis like 2008, and what happens when the enormous debts funding AI data centres come due.

They also discuss Donald Trump's approach to financial regulation, his family's involvement in cryptocurrency and prediction markets, and whether America's financial watchdogs are still capable of holding the powerful to account.

Gensler, now a professor at MIT and host of the podcast Power and Consequences, also explains why he believes the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems are real, despite Trump's dismissal of AI safety concerns.

What is it like for ordinary Russians living in Vladimir Putin’s Russia at war? What do they really think?

Award-winning war correspondent Åsne Seierstad has travelled deep inside Russia to find out.

Her new book, Never Say War, takes us behind the propaganda to reveal a society shaped by fear, repression and the human cost of war.

Ukraine relies on the good will of two volatile American billionaires to hit Russian targets and defend  their own skies - but this week that relationship with Elon Musk and Donald Trump has reached breaking point as Kyiv's access to Starlink was cut after Trump’s surprise diesel deal with Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s defence minister says operations have been partially restored, and Musk says it’s the US government that controls the military side of Starlink, called Starshield. 

So what happens now? Can Ukraine survive without Musk’s technology? And, as Zelenskyy says he feels betrayed by Trump, is this a final, fatal blow in their relationship? 

On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council to discuss.

A dramatic escalation in Yemen has plunged the Middle East into a fresh geopolitical crisis, after a series of deadly Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s airports and oil and gas infrastructure. 

The long running civil war is one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. But why are the Houthis at war with Saudi Arabia? And how does it fit into the wider Middle East conflicts?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Middle East Eye Editor-in-Chief David Hearst and investigative journalist Iona Craig, who examine the catastrophic humanitarian emergency facing over 22 million Yemenis, the formation of rival regional alliances, and whether Saudi Arabia can ever achieve a decisive victory in Yemen.

What influence does the UK still have on the world stage? And can it use it to prevent some of the world’s worst atrocities?

On this episode of the Fourcast, we’re joined by the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and member of the Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes, Oleksandra Matviichuk.

From Ukraine to Sudan and Myanmar to Xinjiang - this decade has seen some of the worst crimes against humanity amid an ever more uncertain world order.

Matviichuk however says that the UK can - and should - become a ‘world leader’ in the prevention of atrocities around the world - and that doing so is in our national interest.

Zack Polanski and the Green Party are facing pressing questions after Andy Burnham’s Labour held Keir Starmer’s former seat in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The result is a setback for Polanski’s hopes of challenging Labour on the left of British politics. With calls for his resignation after he declined to vote on the Green Party’s ‘Zionism is Racism’ motion, is this just a blip for the Green Party leader or is his leadership really under threat?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long spoke to Green Party’s deputy leader Rachel Millward, as well as the political correspondent from the New Statesman Megan Kenyon and pollster from More In Common UK, Luke Tryl.

In the last few days a former German spy chief has been accused of selling state secrets, a British navy sailor has been charged with espionage and now two Latvians have been picked up near a British air base in Cambridgeshire - not to mention the mysterious goings on at RAF Fairford.

So are Western intelligence agencies facing a growing threat? Or was it ever thus? 

In this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru Murthy and Mark Urban are joined by former national security adviser Sir Mark Lyall Grant.

The unprecedented survival of Christa Pike following a botched lethal injection in Tennessee has plunged the American capital punishment system into a deep legal and constitutional crisis.

Sentenced to death at age 18 for the 1995 murder of Colleen Slemmer, Pike was scheduled to become the first woman executed by the state in over two centuries. However, after two lethal doses of pentobarbital failed to kill her, she survived and was rushed to intensive care.

Pike is now reportedly conscious and speaking in hospital while handcuffed to her bed.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Anushka Asthana is joined by Dr. Joel Zivot, an anaesthesiologist advising Pike's defence team,  Robin Maher from the Death Penalty Information Center, and "Surviving Execution" author Ian Woods. The panel asks: Can an execution ever truly be humane, or has America reached a breaking point with capital punishment?

The sudden withdrawal of American heavy bombers from RAF Fairford back to the United States follows a major incident near the Gloucestershire airbase. Five men were arrested near the base, with the UK government saying it showed "strong indications" of state-sponsored involvement from Tehran.

So why has the US pulled its bombers from the UK? Has the abrupt departure handed Tehran a tactical and propaganda victory? And what does the saga say about the UK’s special relationship with the US?

On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Dr David Jordan from the Freeman Air and Space Institute, former senior official at the Pentagon, Jim Townsend, as well as Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

An Israel-bound Flydubai flight plunged more than 14,000 feet in just 30 seconds after the co-pilot allegedly attacked the pilot and tried to take control of the aircraft.

The plane eventually landed safely in Saudi Arabia after passengers and off-duty pilots intervened, but the incident has raised urgent questions about aviation security, insider threats and whether flights to Israel now face a new kind of risk.

Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine what we know so far, why Benjamin Netanyahu has compared the incident to a potential “9/11-style” attack, and what it could mean for Israel, Flydubai and airline security around the world.

There is currently no evidence linking the alleged attack to Iran or a wider terrorist plot.

In a seismic ruling that has sent shockwaves through football, Manchester City have been found guilty of dozens of financial charges spanning a nine-year period from 2009 to 2018. The club were found to have systematically misstated financial accounts, arranged disguised funding through "sham" sponsorship agreements, and failed to cooperate in good faith with the league's four-year investigation.

While Manchester City have denied the findings and said they plan to appeal the findings, what punishment could they face - a points deduction? Relegation?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan is joined by chief football writer Darren Lewis and football finance expert Kieran Maguire, the panel interrogates how badly the Premier League’s brand has been tarnished, what punishments the club could face, and whether the integrity of the modern game can survive.

Can John Healey deliver the growth Britain desperately needs? At Labour’s conference in Liverpool, the Chancellor promised a new age of industrialisation, more opportunities for young people and an era of political hope. But with the government under pressure to control spending, what does that mean for welfare, public investment and the economy?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to economist Mariana Mazzucato and Times columnist Fraser Nelson. They debate how Britain can grow its economy, whether welfare reform can get more people into work, and whether the government should cut taxes and regulation or invest more heavily in public services and infrastructure.

Hundreds of thousands of people were killed in a two-year between Tigrayan forces and Ethiopia's government which ended in a peace deal in 2022. 

Today the trauma and fear of war creeps back in as both sides accuse each other of launching new offensives. 

Earlier this week the TPLF announced a new coalition alongside other militias - some of whom had previously been bitter opponents.

The so-called Alliance for survival is made up of seven armed rebel groups which have been waging their own battles against the Ethiopian government in different parts of the country.

Tigrayan forces have seized three airports in Tigray, and in response Ethiopian airlines have suspended all flights to the region. 

But why are things escalating now? Is the clock ticking for the Ethiopian government? And will Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed achieve his goal of accessing the Red Sea? 

To understand things better and break it all down we’re joined by Tsedale Lemma, an Ethiopian journalist and founder of the Addis Standard and Nicholas Westcott, former director of the Royal African Society.

US presidents typically welcome foreign leaders at the White House, but on Wednesday Donald Trump laid out the red carpet to greet China’s premier Xi Jinping.In today’s episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban discuss the future being shaped by the two superpowers, what that means for geopolitics and for the economy. Joining us shortly is Bronwen Maddox, CEO of Chatham House, who has written and spoken extensively about China’s attempt to rule a post-American world, and a book called In Defence of America, on how the US has been taken for granted by the rest of the world.

Addressing the UN General Assembly in New York, Prime Minister Andy Burnham warned of an "insidious campaign" of hostile foreign interference aimed at stoking domestic division and eroding democratic trust. 

To combat the threat, Burnham announced the creation of the National Centre for Information Defence.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by disinformation expert and author Nina Jankowicz, the Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, Lord Beamish, as well as the Conservative MP Alicia Kearns.

They discuss the threat posed by Russia to the UK, the role of tech platforms and whether the new unit could risk the censoring of free speech.

Can Andy Burnham turn the UK economy around?

With just a few weeks to go until his first Budget, the new prime minister is facing a difficult economic outlook, as he deals with sluggish growth, the rising cost of living and a war in Iran which threatens to send inflation soaring.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to the former chief economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane and Channel 4’s Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi.

They discuss cuts to welfare, the pensions triple lock and Britain’s problem with young NEETS: those not in education, employment or training.

The EU President Ursula Von der Leyen has offered Canada ‘associate membership of the EU’, a move which Donald Trump called ‘laughable’ - but still threatened ‘serious sanctions’ as punishment.  

In this episode of the Fourcast, we ask what Canada’s closer ties with the EU could mean - from tighter trade and defence to what Mark Carney calls 'a beacon for other democracies.' But with the far right rising in Europe, is the Canadian Prime Minister trying to join a club that could soon fall apart?  

Leslie Vinjamuri, the President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs says Carney is playing a long-game when it comes to the US, picking up support on both sides of the border by standing up to Trump, and that his decision to move closer to the EU is a ‘declaration of independence from King Trump’.  While Dr. Linn Selle, head of the Europe division of the German Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the EU is chasing Carney’s star power to help revive its appeal.  

Ed Sheeran has found himself embroiled in a huge row after the rapper Macklemore was dropped as a support act from his tour, after he made comments in support of Palestine. 

The Suffolk singer has said he is "not complicit" and that the decision to drop Macklemore was not his. Since then, all the other support acts have pulled out of the tour in support of the rapper. 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks with singer Paloma Faith who has publicly supported Macklemore, calling him ‘my hero’ on social media. 

They discuss the pressure put on if musicians by business interests, whether music can ever stay out of politics and if musicians can ever truly sit on the fence when it comes to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Is British politics becoming more like America, dominated by billionaires, huge donations and increasingly polarised media? 

Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by journalist and broadcaster Mehdi Hasan, who has returned to the UK to launch Zeteo UK. 

They discuss Reform UK’s £72 million in donations from two crypto billionaires, what wealthy political donors might expect in return, Britain’s changing relationship with Israel, Donald Trump and the threat to journalism in America - and whether independent media can rebuild the trust lost by traditional news organisations. 

Hasan also discusses the war in Gaza, which he describes as a 'genocide' - Israel strongly rejects allegations of genocide and denies committing war crimes, saying its military operations are conducted in accordance with international law. 

Twenty-five years after 9/11, its consequences are still shaping the world. From Tony Blair and George W Bush to Trump, MAGA and the rise of populism in Europe, how much of today’s politics can be traced back to September 11th?

In today’s episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban look back at the attack that transformed American foreign policy, ushered in the war on terror and dramatically expanded the power of intelligence agencies and surveillance.

They are joined by Ambassador Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to NATO on 9/11, who reveals how America’s allies responded in the hours after the attack, why he now regrets supporting the invasion of Iraq, and what the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan did to America’s willingness to intervene overseas.

The UK has signalled a major change in its approach to Israel, after its Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced what he called a “reset” of relations, as well banning exports from illegal Israeli settlements.

And while the move has been praised by many, it has attracted condemnation from Washington and Israel, who in response announced they would close the British consulate in Jerusalem.

So is the move mainly a symbolic gesture from the British government? Or could it signify a major policy shift when it comes to its once close ally?

On this episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by the Palestinian Ambassador to the UK, Husam Zomlot, the Labour Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee Dame Emily Thornberry MP, as well as former Conservative Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind.

Germany’s far-right party has won a major victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, although it remains to be seen whether the AfD will be able to form a government there.

Nevertheless, the result has sent shockwaves not only through Germany, but across Europe too. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, a far-right party could gain power in a German state.

Why is the AfD surging? How much is its success being driven by immigration, economic frustration and anger at the political establishment? And what could its rise mean for Germany’s relationship with Russia, NATO and the EU?

Matt Frei is joined by author and commentator John Kampfner and Dr Sarah Wagner, a researcher in political science at Queen’s University Belfast, to examine whether this is a political blip or a watershed moment for Germany and Europe.

Senior Reform officials have been caught on camera discussing ways to get thousands of pounds of foreign money into the party, potentially breaking electoral law.[Subscribe to our Substack newsletter: https://channel4news.substack.com/subscribe]A Channel 4 News and Verbatim Investigations investigation found that James Orr, Reform’s Head of Policy, and Dan Jukes, a close aide to Nigel Farage, arranged for a US company to secretly fund three influential polls commissioned by the party. Since we aired the story, the two officials involved have stepped down from their positions but deny wrongdoing, and rival parties have reported Reform to the police. The Reform party has denied wrongdoing and launched an internal investigation. Nigel Farage has insisted that the party has broken no laws.To discuss all of this, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by political commentator and former Reform member Tim Montgomerie, Labour MP Dame Emily Thornberry, as well as the barrister and election law expert Tom Gillie.

A potentially “supersized” El Niño is forecast for this winter - and scientists warn it could bring more extreme weather, from droughts and heatwaves to devastating floods.

But what happens when El Niño collides with a world already being reshaped by climate change?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether governments, businesses and the global financial system are prepared for the shocks ahead.

He speaks to Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading and an anticipatory action expert at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who explains how early warning systems can help communities prepare before disaster strikes, and economist Dr Matthew Winning, from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, looks at the wider economic consequences - from food prices and supply chains to insurance, investment and our pensions.

As extreme weather becomes harder to predict, should we rethink the way we plan for disasters? And is it already too late to rely on the old idea of a “one-in-100-year” event?

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded as retaliatory strikes flare up once again across the Middle East. And with Donald Trump warning of further military escalation, is the world at risk of yet another economic shock?

So what’s behind the new wave of strikes in the Middle East? And could Iran be at risk of losing control of its ultimate bargaining chip - the Strait of Hormuz.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban break down the geopolitical signals shaping this war. Joined by the economist Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, they discuss global markets, inflation, and whether an exit strategy exists for either side.

Pakistan is the latest country to hit back after the White House threatened countries who trade with Iran. China has already said it won’t be taking orders from America. So is this another failed bid by Donald Trump to bend Iran and its backers to his will? 

Or could this actually work? Several senior Iranian leaders have recently acknowledged the economic pain that the country and its people are feeling. 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Mohammed Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team to get a view from inside Iran.

Meta has agreed to a landmark settlement over allegations that its platforms harmed children and teenagers - raising a much bigger question about how social media is designed and regulated.

On this episode of The Fourcast, we look at what the settlement actually means for Instagram and Facebook users, whether other social media companies could be forced to follow suit, and whether this could fundamentally change the way we use social media.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by visiting professor at Stony Brook University School of Journalism and author of ‘Hot Type’ Jeff Jarvis and Associate Professor in Digital Humanities at University College London, Kaitlyn Regehr.

In a statement released after the settlement, Meta said the agreement is not an admission of wrongdoing, but a new framework designed to give parents more control and teenagers stronger protections. It says the measures will only work if TikTok and YouTube adopt the same rules, because teenagers move between multiple platforms.

Britain is doubling down on its support for Ukraine, backing a deal that could see Ukraine produce its own long-range missiles as Russia intensifies its attacks.

But as Moscow ramps up its missile production and warns of further mobilisation, Ukraine is facing growing pressure on its air defences and ammunition supplies. Meanwhile, questions remain over whether Europe can fill the gap if US support continues to weaken.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding to discuss Britain's growing role in the war, the state of the battlefield and whether Ukraine's allies are becoming weary of the conflict.

Could long-range Ukrainian missiles change the war? Is Russia winning the war of attrition? And how far is Britain prepared to go to support Ukraine?

Is Donald Trump driving the world economy off a cliff while you’re on your summer holiday? 

America has just passed $40 trillion of debt. Trump’s tariffs are pushing up prices, his tax cuts are adding to the deficit, and his war with Iran has sent oil prices soaring. 

Now bond markets are turning on him. The US treasury has tried to step in and calm the bond markets, but it doesn’t appear to have worked. 

So what exactly is going on? Is this just a wobble in the bond markets - or a sign of something much worse to come? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Pippa Malmgren, who served as an economic adviser to President Bush, and The Economist’s Archie Hall.

Should Britain tax wealth more heavily? With the government under pressure to find billions for public services and defence, Andy Burnham has refused to rule out a wealth tax. 

But would taxing the richest households actually raise significant money, or drive wealth, investment and entrepreneurs out of the country?

On The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Gabriel Zucman, economist and author of 'We Need to Tax Billionaires'and economist Arthur Laffer, creator of the Laffer Curve.

So how unequal is Britain? Has wealth become undertaxed compared with income? And if Britain doesn't tax the richest more, where else should the government find the money?

Nigel Farage has secured re-election in the Clacton by-election, but his political gamble to "stick two fingers up to the establishment" hasn’t gone according to plan. With novelty candidate Count Binface as Farage’s primary challenger, the self-described intergalactic space warrior secured nearly 10,000 votes.

With Farage's personal favorability ratings dropping and accusations that he skipped the declaration to avoid being "humiliated by nobodies," has the Reform leader’s publicity stunt severely backfired? 

In this episode of The Fourcast, Alex Thomson speaks to Popular Conservatism director Mark Littlewood, columnist Sonia Sodha, and polling expert Luke Tryl (Reform UK were unable to find anyone from the party to appear on the podcast).

They analyse whether Reform UK is losing its political momentum, how the ongoing standards investigation affects Farage's future, and whether Britain's political right is facing a deep crisis of credibility.

In the West Bank village of Qusra, Israeli settlers have spent days besieging Palestinian homes, cutting residents off from food and water - an attack even Donald Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has condemned as a “horrific act of terror”. 

But this incident appears to be part of an escalation of settler violence in the West Bank this year. 

So can Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, who have at times condemned the violence but have also done so much to embolden settlers, reign it in? Or is the situation spiralling out of control? 

In a statement, the Israeli military said that soldiers had been deployed in Qusra since Thursday morning to protect residents and maintain security, and "were instructed that the Qusra residents will remain in their homes."

The military added that "soldiers will not operate inside the Palestinian family's home located near the site where the tent that was evacuated and dismantled had been erected".

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by former Israeli ambassador to Canada Alan Baker, who was part of a commission set up by Benjamin Netanyahu to investigate the legality of settlements in the West Bank. He was also joined by Palestinian ambassador to Unesco Adel Atieh and Haaretz senior analyst Esther Solomon.

In 2019, Theresa May positioned the UK as a global climate leader by enshrining a legally binding Net Zero target by 2050. Fast forward seven years, and the political landscape on the British Right has transformed dramatically. With Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch proposing to repeal Net Zero targets and Reform UK labeling green policies "net-stupid-zero," the consensus around climate action is fracturing. 

All this comes as the UK endures repeated heatwaves, droughts, and severe economic impacts—with summer heatwaves costing an estimated £4.4bn in lost productivity alongside thousands of excess deaths. As extreme weather directly threatens agriculture and rural communities, is the Right out of step with voters, or are they tapping into growing cost-of-living concerns?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei explores whether Net Zero scepticism is pragmatic economics or climate denial in disguise. Matt is joined by former Energy Minister Graham Stuart MP, Net Zero Scrutiny Group member Lord Peter Lilley, and former NFU President Baroness Minette Batters to debate conservative ideology, economic reality, and the electoral risks facing the Right.

AI is increasingly being used to find vulnerabilities, exploit networks and carry out cyberattacks - but how autonomous are these systems really?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei asks whether we are approaching a world where AI agents can conduct cyberattacks with little or no human intervention. Could an AI maintain access to a network, evade attempts to shut it down or even copy itself?

Matt is joined by AI safety expert and author of Considerations on the AI Endgame, Dr Roman V. Yampolskiy, and Katie Moussouris, founder and CEO of Luta Security and a former contributor to the US government's ‘Hack the Pentagon’ programme.

They discuss the latest AI hacking incidents, whether governments need tougher regulation, who should be responsible when AI causes harm, and whether AI could ultimately become both the biggest cyber threat - and the best defence against it.

The war in Ukraine appears to have entered a new phase, as Kyiv has launched increasingly ambitious long-range strikes deep inside Russia, put mounting pressure on Crimea and sought to bring the war closer to ordinary Russians and Vladimir Putin. 

But now the Kremlin is hitting back hard. In a missile attack on Kyiv this week, at least 17 people were killed. Now there’s reports of a Ukrainian plane in Leipzig, Germany, being targeted by an explosive-laden drone. It’s not clear who was behind the attack but reporting suggests it could be Russia. So are we witnessing a dangerous new phase of escalation? 

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by economist Timothy Ash from Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme.

Just a few months ago, Nigel Farage and Reform UK looked unstoppable. After sweeping the local elections and topping opinion polls, many believed Reform was on course for government. But has the momentum already begun to fade?

A string of controversies - including police investigations, questions over party finances, and a £5 million donation from a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire - has put Reform under growing pressure. With the party slipping in the polls, are these scandals finally cutting through with voters, or is this just another setback Farage will survive?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Tim Ross from Politico, former Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler and Labour strategist Claire Ainsley to examine what's gone wrong for Reform, whether Andy Burnham has given Labour a route back to power, why the Greens are also losing ground, and what the latest polling tells us about the future of British politics.

After around 50,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African territory of Ceuta, far-right politicians across Europe quickly branded the events an "invasion." But with most migrants already returning to Morocco and UK illegal boat crossings dropping to a five-year low—down 43% compared to 2025—what is actually driving the debate around European border control?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Director of the Migration Observatory Madeleine Sumption, Director of Politics at Ipsos Keiran Pedley, and Austrian migration expert Gerald Knaus.

They discuss whether the incident in Ceuta could drive a new surge for the far-right across Europe, how the UK could be affected and if immigration is still the hot topic for voters.

Despite his job seemingly looking assured just a few weeks ago, Gianni Infantino’s position as President of FIFA is now in jeopardy.

With the footballing federations of Europe, North America and Asia all rejecting Infantino’s plans to sell off part of the World Cup to private investors, pressure is piling on Infantino. Even the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Infantino is the “wrong man” to lead FIFA.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4’s Sports Reporter, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, as well as Abiola Ijasanmi the former Chief Operating Officer from the Confederation of African Football.

They discuss whether Infantino has badly mis-read the situation and - could he actually could be forced out of this job?

The war between the United States and Iran has spread across the Middle East. 

Fresh strikes in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt, alongside escalating Houthi attacks on international shipping, have raised fears that the region is entering a dangerous new phase. With Washington intensifying its military campaign and Iran relying on its network of allied militias, is this becoming a wider regional war?

On this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Professor Madawi al-Rasheed from the London School of Economics Middle East Centre. They discuss why the Houthis are stepping up attacks, whether Saudi Arabia is being pulled into the fighting despite its efforts to avoid it, how Iraqi militias could become a new flashpoint, and whether the US has a long-term strategy, or is being drawn into another prolonged Middle East war.

Is there still a path to de-escalation, or are we witnessing the beginning of a conflict that could engulf the wider region?

Social care is the thorny issue which politicians have failed to solve for decades.

Today though, the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham put it back on the political agenda as he called for a ‘National Care Service’, saying that social care in the UK is “as unfair” as the healthcare system in the US.

On this week’s episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by the former Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary Damien Green, Professor Richard Humphries who is a Senior Policy Advisor at the Health Foundation and the Liberal Democrat MP and Chair of the Health Select Committee Layla Moran. 

They discuss why the current system is not fit for purpose, why previous efforts at reform have failed and whether Andy Burnham could be the one to finally solve it.

As thousands of people are forced to flee their homes amid devastating wildfires in France, Spain and Scotland, the climate emergency seems closer to people’s lives than ever.

Despite this, governments around the world are seemingly rolling back their efforts to end the fossil fuel pollution that is driving the climate emergency.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by environmentalist George Monbiot,  Professor Liz Bentley from the Royal Meteorological Society and Fiona Macklin, Head of Climate at Apolitical.

They discuss what it will take to finally get politicians to start taking global heating  seriously. And whether even when disaster is staring us in the face, if we as a people are really ready to make the changes necessary?

Months after many of his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were declared illegal by the Supreme Court, Donald Trump has announced a fresh wave of tariffs against dozens of countries.

This time, using the allegation of “forced labour” by America’s trading partners, Trump is hoping his new tariffs will be less open to challenge in the courts.

But what will the impact be on American consumers already hit hard by the war in Iran? And can anyone take Trump’s trade policy seriously, when it can all change in an instant?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Australian-American economist Justin Wolfers, as well as Financial Times columnist and co-author of the book How to Win a Trade War, Soumaya Keynes.

The US and Saudi Arabia have reportedly signed a landmark deal that could pave the way for a Saudi nuclear programme, sparking fears it could eventually allow the Gulf kingdom to develop its own nuclear weapon.

President Donald Trump has denied that the agreement permits Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, and says any deal is dependent on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords and recognising Israel, a move many experts say remains unlikely.

Meanwhile, tensions in the region have escalated after Houthi attacks on Saudi ships in the Bab el Mandab strait pushed oil prices higher. Trump has warned that further attacks could trigger “major military punishment” against Iran and the Houthis.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4 News foreign affairs correspondent Jonathan Rugman to examine the US-Saudi nuclear deal, the growing confrontation with the Houthis, and what it means for the future of the Middle East.

Why has Volodymyr Zelenskyy reshuffled Ukraine's military leadership at a crucial moment in the war against Russia?

As Kyiv ramps up its long-range drone campaign deep inside Russia, Ukraine's president has appointed General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the country's armed forces. Supporters say he's the innovative commander Ukraine needs for the next phase of the conflict—but why make such a significant change when the war appears to be swinging in Ukraine's favour?

On this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine what Zelenskyy's military shake-up signals, whether Ukraine is rewriting the rules of modern warfare, and if drones can continue to shift the balance against Russia. They're joined by Orysia Lutsevych, Head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, to discuss the challenges facing Kyiv, what Vladimir Putin may do next, and the wider security picture, including Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the emerging US-Saudi nuclear agreement.

Andy Burnham is Britain's new prime minister.

On his first day in Downing Street, he promised the biggest changes to Britain in 40 years, unveiled his vision for government and began assembling his cabinet. But what do those first decisions tell us about the kind of Prime Minister he wants to be?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Anushka Asthana examines Burnham's first speech and the challenges waiting in his in-tray. Can he rebuild trust in politics? How different is ‘Burnhamism’ from the Starmer years? And with Britain's public finances under huge pressure, can he improve living standards without returning to austerity or breaking Labour's tax promises?

Joining Anushka today are Neal Lawson, a close ally of Burnham’s who co-founded the influential left wing group Compass, political strategist Peter Hyman, who was at the heart of the Downing Street operation in the Blair years and a senior adviser to Keir Starmer in opposition, and Political Editor at the i Paper, Caroline Wheeler. 

The World Cup final is here. But could this tournament be remembered more for its politics than its football - from Donald Trump's travel restrictions, to soaring ticket prices and growing criticism of FIFA's relationship with the White House, controversy has followed this World Cup from the very beginning.

At the centre of it all is FIFA president Gianni Infantino. Once elected promising to clean up football's governing body after the Sepp Blatter era, he's now facing mounting criticism from across the game. So, has Infantino gone too far? Could his grip on FIFA finally be weakening? Or is he more powerful than ever?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan is joined by broadcaster and football journalist Kate Mason and Carl Anka from the Athletic.

President Donald Trump has U-turned on his threat to charge cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz as much as 20% - but the US and Iran have continued trading strikes as Trump has told the US Congress that war has resumed. 

So, can the US gain the upper hand? Will more US bombs and bullets really help? And has this whole episode proven that the memorandum of understanding, which was meant to end the conflict, was destined to fail.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, presenter Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Defence and Intelligence Analyst, Mark Urban are joined by former US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, who is now a senior fellow at The Foundation for Defence of Democracies.

Britain is getting hotter. But is the country ready?

After another record-breaking heatwave, experts estimate that thousands of excess deaths may already have been linked to the extreme temperatures. From overheating homes and buckling railways to schools, hospitals and reservoirs struggling to cope, questions are growing over whether Britain's infrastructure was ever designed for the climate it's now facing.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks why the UK remains so unprepared for extreme heat, what climate adaptation should actually look like, and whether the debate around Net Zero has become more political than practical.

He's joined by Professor Rebecca Willis from the University of Manchester, environmental lawyer and Uplift Executive Director Tessa Khan, and architect Smith Mordak to discuss how Britain can prepare for a warmer future and whether the country is running out of time.

Christopher Nolan’s newest blockbuster film The Odyssey, with a star-studded line up including Matt Damon, Robert Pattinson, Zendaya, Anne Hathaway and Tom Holland, hits the cinemas next week, and it’s already causing a stir. 

But what is the film really about? 

On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy sat down with Christopher Nolan and Tom Holland and explored the themes of revenge, the hero’s journey, homecoming, and asked how the Greek concept of Zeus’s law could be linked to the debate around immigration today. 

Later Krishnan spoke to classicist Edith Hall to delve deeper into the epic tale.

Donald Trump says the ceasefire is over. After fresh US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks on American military bases in the Gulf, hopes that the conflict was winding down have been thrown into doubt. 

Trump has declared he no longer wants to negotiate with Tehran, raising fears that the Middle East could be entering a dangerous new phase.

So what do these latest attacks tell us? Is diplomacy finished? Could Israel escalate its military campaign? And what does renewed instability mean for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the wider global economy?

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban and also speaks to Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, founder of the Green Party of Iran and a former senior IRGC commander, to discuss Iran's response, the future of the regime, and whether there is any route back to diplomacy.

Nigel Farage is trying to take back control of the scandal around his finances. Facing mounting questions and a parliamentary standards inquiry which could prompt a recall petition and by-election he has pre-empted it all and forced one himself. He's pitching it as the people against the establishment - the chance to flick two fingers at the media and political opponents, and prove he's done nothing wrong. But will it work? Will it resolve any of the questions about who gave him money, why and why he didn't declare it? Is this a genius masterstroke by a brilliant tactician, or a desperate stunt by an angry man that could backfire? And is it effectively an admission that the inquiry will find he broke the rules? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by the former Conservative now Reform supporting commentator Tim Montgomerie, former Reform Deputy Leader turned Farage critic and rival Ben Habib, who has shared a platform with far-right activist Tommy Robinson, and from More in Common the pollster Luke Tryll.

How far would an Andy Burnham government be willing to go to tackle inequality? In this episode of The Fourcast, economist and activist Gary Stevenson told us that the incoming prime minister will “fail” unless he is willing to properly tax wealth.

A former trader who made millions in the City, Gary Stevenson has gained a huge online following as one of the left’s foremost campaigners against inequality.

He spoke with Krishnan Guru-Murthy about his new Channel 4 documentary ‘How to Get Filthy Rich’ and told us whether he would be willing to work with a future Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Thousands of killers, rapists and sex offenders are among those who could be released early this September as the Government tries to tackle the crisis facing Britain’s overcrowded prisons.The plans have sparked a political row, with former safeguarding minister Jess Phillips calling for child rapists to be excluded from the scheme, while the Conservatives have accused the Government of putting victims at risk.On this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long speaks to Amy Clowrey, a solicitor who specialises in child sex abuse cases, Mark Fairhurst, chair of the Prison Officers Association, and prisons minister Lord Timpson.What does the scheme mean for victims? How many offenders could be released? And is there another way to fix Britain’s prison crisis?

Andy Burnham is setting out what a Premiership under him could look like. The former Greater Manchester Mayor has said that he would set up a permanent “Number 10 North”, with greater powers handed to England’s regions. 

So could the Manchester model work across the country? Why has “levelling up” repeatedly failed? And could moving power out of Westminster really make England richer?

To discuss this, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Hannah Peaker, Deputy Chief Executive of the New Economics Foundation, Henri Murison, Chief Executive of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, and Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi.

With Sir Keir Starmer just weeks away from leaving office, his government has finally released its long awaited Defence Investment Plan - but will it be enough to keep the UK safe? 

On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Channel 4's International Editor Lindsey Hilsum. 

They discuss how the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have "completely changed" the nature of warfare, how Britain is betting big on drones - and if Vladimir Putin might be at risk of lose his prized possession: Crimea. 

Russia’s stock market has plummeted in recent days, hitting a three year low, mounting pressure on Vladimir Putin while Ukraine ramps up its long range drone attacks on critical infrastructure, including oil facilities around Moscow. 

Are the costs of the war becoming unbearable for Russia? Is Ukraine finding new ways to fight back? And if Putin believes time is no longer on his side, will he escalate? 

On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Nina Khruscheva, professor of international affairs at The New School in New York.

Maggie Haberman has spent years covering Donald Trump - from his first presidential campaign to his return to the White House.

Now, in her new book Regime Change, written with Jonathan Swan, she examines how Trump has wielded power in his second term: his relationship with loyalty, his desire to shape history, and the people around him who help drive his decisions.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Maggie Haberman about Trump’s ambition to be remembered as one of the most powerful leaders in history, whether he is considering a third term, and what his presidency reveals about his character.

Donald Trump has frequently dismissed Haberman for writing false stories about him, which she rejects. 

Is Trump changing the presidency - or trying to make the presidency about himself?

Keir Starmer is on his way out and Andy Burnham looks set to become Britain's next Prime Minister. After years as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham appears to have cleared the field, with Labour MPs rallying behind him and potential rivals standing aside. But what happens next?

Can Burnham turn his popularity into a successful premiership? Does he have a plan for Britain's sluggish economy, rising welfare costs and growing defence commitments? What exactly is "Manchesterism", and can it work across the whole country?

To discuss all of this and more, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is in Westminster, speaking to Channel 4 News Political Editor Gary Gibbon about Burnham's path to Number 10, the likely shape of his government, the future of Labour, and what Nigel Farage and Reform UK make of the challenge ahead. He's joined by Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika, the i Paper's Kitty Donaldson, and Ipsos UK Chief Executive Kelly Beaver to assess what a Burnham premiership could mean for British politics.

Andy Burnham has won a thumping victory in Makerfield, proving he can, in certain circumstances, beat Nigel Farage’s Reform UK - but what about beating his own party leader Sir Keir Starmer? 

The prime minister says he will stand and fight any leadership challenge. So, where does it leave the country? Will Starmer be forced to stand down, despite his defiant tone now? And what will happen if there is a leadership election?  

On this episode of The Fourcast Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Keir Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin, Labour MP and Wes Streeting ally Rosie Wrighting, Labour MP and Andy Burnham supporter Dr SImon Opher and More In Common executive director Luke Tryl.

A $300bn plan to rebuild Iran. A ceasefire in the Middle East. And a new test for Donald Trump. But can this peace plan really work, and who is paying for it?

In this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely after the Iran war - from the future of Iran’s economy and nuclear programme, to whether Israel will accept a new regional reality.

They’re joined by Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi to ask: who pays for Iran’s reconstruction? Can sanctions be lifted? What happens to the Gulf states? And does this mark a new balance of power in the Middle East?

A ceasefire has been announced between the US and Iran - but is this the end of the conflict, or just a pause before the next confrontation?

After days of missile strikes, threats and escalation, Donald Trump has celebrated the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and declared a diplomatic success. Iran says it has forced the US and Israel to accept defeat. Both sides claim victory - but who really got what they wanted?

On this episode of The Fourcast, we examine what the ceasefire means for Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel’s security calculations, and the wider balance of power in the Middle East.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, former Israeli ambassador to Germany Jeremy Issacharoff, and Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum.

The World Cup has kicked off, with three red cards and a win for co-hosts Mexico while the USA face Paraguay later, but President Donald Trump is set not to attend America’s opening game. 

Before a ball was even kicked, this tournament wasn’t short of controversies, from strict border controls and eye-watering ticket prices to the prospect of two countries who are at war with each other playing a game of football. 

So, has the beautiful game’s biggest tournament become impossible to separate from global politics? Is this simply the reality of staging a World Cup across borders in an increasingly divided world - or are the doubters right that this World Cup could be spoiled by the drama off the pitch?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by our sports reporter Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, superfan Billy The Bee who is in Mexico right now and will head to America to follow England’s games and journalist Marcela Mora y Araujo.

While Washington insists pressure is working and Tehran claims resilience; attacks have continued, oil markets are moving, and ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated warnings of disruption.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban unpack why oil prices haven’t exploded, whether Iran is losing one of its most powerful bargaining chips, and what the movement of ships in the Gulf tells us about what could happen next.

And what does the resignation of UK Defence Secretary John Healey tell us about how the UK is preparing for a more unstable world?

They’re joined by Yael Selfin, Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Chief Economist at KPMG, to ask whether markets are underestimating the risks - and what this could mean for fuel prices, inflation and the wider economy.

The family of Stephen Ogilvie, the victim of the Belfast stabbing, has called for calm and said they don’t want the “terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility.”, as Sudanese national Hadi Alodid was charged with attempted murder, threats to kill an NHS radiographer and possession of a knife. 

Last night, violence spread across parts of Belfast, with police attacked, properties damaged and communities left on edge after a video of the attack was shared online. Politicians and police have pointed to the role of social media, misinformation and outside agitators. But what is really driving the disorder?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long explores what's happening in Northern Ireland, why immigration has become such a political flashpoint, and whether far-right voices are helping fuel tensions online.

Jackie is joined by Allison Morris, Crime Correspondent at The Irish News, former Metropolitan Police officer Victor Olisa, and Robert Topinka, lecturer and researcher on far-right movements and online radicalisation.

The Nottingham attacks shocked Britain and raised urgent questions about mental health services, public safety and institutional accountability.

In this special edition of The Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by the families of those killed in the attacks, alongside mental health experts, campaigners and policymakers, to discuss the findings of the Nottingham Inquiry and what must change to prevent similar tragedies in the future.

Emma Webber, mother of Barnaby Webber; Dr Sanjoy Kumar, father of Grace O'Malley-Kumar; and James Coates, son of Ian Coates, reflect on their fight for answers and accountability. They are joined by former Care Minister Norman Lamb, Professor at the Institute of Psychiatry at King's College London Dinesh Bhugra, and SANE Chief Executive Marjorie Wallace.

Can lessons finally be learned from Nottingham? Has enough changed since the attacks? And how do we balance compassionate mental health care with public safety?

Nottingham Police said they would consider any recommendations made. Nottingham Health Trust did not respond to a request for comment. The CPS said they were ‘fully engaging with the public inquiry’. During the inquiry, a representative from the University of Nottingham said that since Valdo Calocane had left the university, the university had “continued to refine and adapt its policies and processes, but any changes made have not been as a direct result of the attacks themselves.” The spokesperson added that: "The University does not take the view that any of the changes made would have had an impact on the devastating attacks which took place.” The Department of Health said that “whilst there has been significant investment in mental health services over the past ten years, demand has risen and outpaced the services available”, and acknowledged “a significant and ongoing rise in demand means there remains a substantial treatment gap”.

Donald Trump says he’d be “honoured” to meet the new supreme leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei as there’s little sign of progress in peace talks between Tehran and Washington. 

So what do the people in Iran really feel about the US president, the war and their Islamic regime that has ruled for almost half a century? 

Krishnan Guru-Murthy has travelled to Iran, speaking to supporters of the regime and, in a rare interview, one of its most prominent critics.

Sadegh Zibakalam is an Iranian academic and author who has spent years calling for reform of the Islamic Republic. He has been jailed, removed from university posts and banned from public speaking. In this episode of The Fourcast, he shares his views on Iran's leadership, its future, and its relationship with the West.

The death of Henry Novak has sparked more than just grief; it has ignited a fierce debate over the state of British policing and the "rage" currently gripping the nation. While the Prime Minister accuses Reform UK leader Nigel Farage of ignoring the Novak family’s pleas for unity, Nigel Farage claims the incident is proof of "two-tier policing" - a justice system he argues treats people differently based on who they are.

But is this a genuine case of systemic bias, or a tragic failure of training and human error in the heat of the moment? And as "identity politics" moves from university lecture halls into police training manuals, are we losing sight of the common ground needed to hold a diverse society together?

On today’s episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Sundar Katwala, Director of British Future, academic and author Lisa McKenzie, and former Policing Minister John Denham to ask: is Britain’s policing truly broken, or is it simply a mirror reflecting our deepest national divisions?

Economic growth is at the centre of British politics once again. Tony Blair says Labour needs a new plan. Keir Starmer, Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham are all setting out competing visions for the country's future. But after years of promises about prosperity, innovation and renewal, why do so many people feel the economy is no longer working for them?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long speaks to economist Professor Mariana Mazzucato, whose ideas helped shape Labour’s original pitch for power and whose new book, The Common Good Economy, argues that governments have lost sight of what the economy is actually for.

They discuss whether markets should serve society rather than the other way around, who gets to define the “common good”, and whether mission-driven government can survive in an era of political instability, nationalism, trade wars and rapid technological change. They also explore Labour’s record in government so far, Tony Blair’s intervention in the party’s future, the debate over net zero and growth, and whether AI could transform the economy as profoundly as the industrial revolution.

The ceasefire may be holding, but the indicators beneath the surface suggest the Middle East remains dangerously unstable.

As internet access slowly returns in Iran and diplomatic channels reopen, questions are growing about whether the US, Iran and Israel are genuinely moving towards a deal, or simply regrouping before the next escalation. Donald Trump is pushing for a wider regional settlement built around the Abraham Accords, while Iran is demanding access to frozen assets and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely: the nature of recent US and Iranian strikes, the strategic importance of Lebanon’s ceasefire, and the growing pressure for political progress before the conflict spirals again.

They’re joined by Lina Khatib from Chatham House.

Sir Tony Blair has entered Labour’s civil war - and his message is brutal: changing the leader means nothing if the party still has no real plan for Britain.

In a sweeping essay, the former Prime Minister delivers a scathing critique of Keir Starmer’s government and questions whether Labour has coherent answers on growth, tax, welfare, Brexit, net zero and Britain’s place in the world. Blair argues the solution is a return to the “radical centre” - but what does that actually mean in 2026?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy examines whether Labour’s crisis is really about leadership at all. Would replacing Starmer with Wes Streeting or Andy Burnham solve anything? Should Labour move closer to Donald Trump or back towards Europe? And if the party forces a leadership contest now, does it risk opening the door to Nigel Farage and Reform UK?

Joining Krishnan are former Tony Blair speechwriter Phil Collins and Labour MP Zubir Ahmed, a supporter of Wes Streeting who resigned from government earlier this month, and Stewart Wood who was an adviser to Gordon Brown when he was Prime Minister and Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader.

Donald Trump says Iran must choose between signing a deal or facing fresh US strikes - but despite the threats, no attacks have come. So is this another case of “TACO Trump”, or are we actually watching the outlines of a peace deal emerge behind the scenes?

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine rising oil prices, shifting sanctions policy, and growing pressure from Gulf states desperate to avoid another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

They discuss whether the US and UK are quietly easing pressure on Russian oil as energy markets tighten, what could happen to Iran’s uranium stockpile under a deal, and whether Trump and Netanyahu are still truly aligned as tensions grow over Israel’s conduct and strategy.

How bad is the economic hit from the Iran war going to be? If the talk around price caps on essential food items, and lifting sanctions on Russian oil and gas are anything to go by, then it could be very bad indeed. 

The government says any price freeze will be voluntary after supermarket bosses called the idea ‘preposterous’ and ‘nonsense.’ But plans to continue to allow diesel and jet fuel to be imported into the UK from Russian oil refined in other countries will go ahead. The Conservatives call this a ‘betrayal of Ukraine.’ 

On this episode of the Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by Channel 4 News' Economics Reporter Neil Macdonald, the economist Vicky Pryce and Tom Keatinge, the founding director at the Centre for Finance and Security at the think tank RUSI.

The World Health Organization has declared the latest Ebola outbreak an international emergency, as cases continue to rise in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Uganda - including infections reported in the capital, Kampala.

The current outbreak is being driven by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments. Fears are growing that this could escalate into a crisis on the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa outbreak, which killed more than 11,000 people.

In this episode of The Fourcast, we ask how serious the threat really is, whether the world is better prepared than it was a decade ago, and what lessons were learned from previous epidemics. Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News health editor Victoria MacDonald and Dr Oliver Johnson, who led an Ebola isolation unit in Sierra Leone during the 2014 outbreak.

What has Donald Trump got out of his two day trip to Beijing? There are some roses from the Chinese President Xi Jinping for the White House Rose Garden apparently. But a trade deal? An end to the war in Iran? The Strait of Hormuz reopened? That all seemed rather more elusive. 

And what about Xi Jinping?  Did he get to show that China is now America's equal on the global stage? Access to US tech and AI? Could he even have got the nod from Trump that Taiwan - and its threatened democracy - is now no longer a priority for the US? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News foreign affairs expert Jonathan Rugman, and Hong Kong democracy activist Nathan Law, now living in exile in the UK and on a Chinese wanted list.

A leaked Pentagon assessment claims China is using the Iran war to strengthen its position against the United States economically, militarily and diplomatically, US media is reporting. 

Donald Trump is in Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping, where the Chinese ruler has been warned that if the Taiwan issue is not handled carefully it could lead to a conflict between the super powers. 

On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by China expert and contributing editor at the Times Cindy Yu to dissect it all.

The battle for Number 10 is on.

After Angela Rayner announced HMRC had cleared her over the tax scandal that led to her resignation, attention quickly shifted to the growing leadership turmoil inside Labour. Following days of speculation, Wes Streeting announced his resignation from government but - so far - hasn’t challenged  Keir Starmer for the leadership

In this episode of The Fourcast, we examine the names circling the leadership race - from Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband to junior ministers preparing potential bids - and ask whether Labour is heading for a brutal internal war just as it tries to convince voters it’s ready for power.

Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy are Senior Political Correspondent Paul Macnamara and Think Labour’s Alison Phillips to discuss who’s really plotting, who has momentum, and whether Starmer can survive the biggest challenge of his leadership so far.

Recorded before Andy Burnham announced he would stand in Makerfield.

It’s another febrile day in Westminster with Prime Minister Keir Starmer - for now - clinging on but he's far from safe as a succession of ministers have stepped down, with more expected to go. 

On top of that, the man who has become the PM's nemesis in the north, Andy Burnham, is apparently down in London. Shopping? Plotting? 

So it looks like Keir Starmer might just hit the current average tenure of British Prime Ministers - two years, but no more. Is this really the way to run a country in the middle of two wars and a cost-of-living crisis? And could anyone else really do any better? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by the Liverpool Echo's Political Editor Liam Thorp, who has co-authored a book with Andy Burnham on how to transform the country, and the Observer columnist Will Hutton.

Keir Starmer survives the day -  but the pressure on his leadership is growing. Today, he attempted to shore up his position with a speech focused on his vision for Labour, saying his government must go beyond “incremental change” and be the party of a “stronger and fairer” Britain. But despite this, at least 55 Labour MPs have called on Starmer to set out a timetable for a leadership election to take place.

And inside Labour, the conversation has already moved on to who would replace him and two names dominate - Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting. Burnham says he should never have been blocked from returning to Westminster, and Streeting is openly being discussed as a potential frontrunner. 

So with the party leadership in flux and the future of the Labour party once again up for debate - what happens now? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Starmer biographer Tom Baldwin and Guardian columnist Zoe Williams about what today’s turmoil really means. Is Labour heading for a delayed but inevitable leadership contest, a Burnham ‘coronation’, or a messy fight over the party’s future?

Labour is reeling after bruising local election results - losing ground to the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right - and questions are now swirling around Keir Starmer’s leadership. Is this just a difficult moment for Labour, or the start of something much bigger?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, former Keir Starmer Chief of Staff Sam White, and political strategist Scarlett Maguire to unpack what the results really mean. Is Labour facing a voter backlash, a messaging problem, or a full-blown leadership crisis?

And if pressure on Starmer continues to grow, what happens next? Could Labour really replace its leader - and who would even take over?

As Gulf leaders look to Beijing for guarantees Washington no longer seems able to give, China is suddenly at the centre of diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed and Iran’s foreign minister both arrived in Beijing within days of each other, seeking a way out of a blockade that has choked shipping routes, pushed tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, and rattled global markets.

So where does this leave Donald Trump’s efforts to revive a deal that could reopen the Strait, and what does the collapse of Project Freedom reveal about America’s standing with its allies in the Gulf and Europe?

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by former Senior Director at the US National Security Council during Donald Trump’s first administration Fiona Hill to examine China’s growing leverage over Iran, the Gulf states’ deepening unease with Washington, and the diplomatic pressure building ahead of the delayed Trump-Xi summit.

It’s the dirty secret at the heart of England’s waterways. The water companies publicly insist they are cleaning up their act, but privately they have been allowed to avoid prosecution for years through a little-known mechanism which lets a company admit fault and pay money to a good cause instead of facing criminal charges. 

The Environment Agency says the payments are a “brilliant tool”, faster and simpler than taking a case through a lengthy court process. But Channel 4 News has uncovered how these payments have been used repeatedly by water companies accused of polluting rivers, allowing them to sidestep court, scrutiny, and conviction. Our investigation has also found that the Environment Agency has not completed a single prosecution of a water company for any pollution occurring in the last five years, despite almost two million sewage discharges. 

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson, who has been looking into this story, campaigner Fergal Sharkey, and whistleblower Robert Forrester, who has firsthand experience of how these cases are handled inside the system.

After a spate of attacks and foiled plots against British Jews since the the events of October 7th and the Iran war, including the stabbing of two men in Golders Green yesterday, many Jewish people say they do not feel safe in the UK any more. 

So, why have we seen this horrifying rise in attacks? And what can be done about it? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy spoke to a range of guests  from across the legal, cultural and security landscape: journalist Hadley Freeman, British-Israeli analyst and author Daniel Levy and former counter terrorism chief Nick Aldworth.

As the UAE decides to leave the powerful OPEC oil cartel, Pakistan has opened itself as a land corridor that could help Iran get around the Strait of Hormuz blockade - so where do these developments leave Donald Trump’s long term plans for the Iran war and the shape of the Middle East? 

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators Matt Frei and Mark Urban delve into the latest developments in Washington and Tehran and look at how Hezbollah’s new drone tactics could be forcing Israel to recalculate it’s approach in Lebanon.

King Charles heads to Washington at a moment of extraordinary tension. The visit comes just days after an assassination attempt on President Donald Trump - and against the backdrop of a deepening war in Iran, strained UK-US relations, and growing questions about America’s global role.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether Britain’s most powerful tool, soft power, can hold up in the face of Trump’s unpredictable politics. From attacks on the UK Prime Minister and British troops, to disputes over sovereignty and trade, how should the King navigate a meeting with a president who thrives on disruption?

Krishnan is joined by Julie Montagu, Countess of Sandwich, Liberal Democrat Europe spokesperson Al Pinkerton, and former UK ambassador to the US Sir David Manning to discuss what’s at stake, and whether this royal visit can steady the so-called “special relationship,” or risk making things worse.

Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran appears to be holding - or is it? Iran has reportedly seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as America attacks tankers and boats linked to Tehran - and then there doesn’t appear to be any hint of any imminent peace talks 

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and defence analyst Mark Urban discuss whether the Iran war has reached a stalemate and ask, with China watching, has this all fatally undermined US power on the world stage?

They were also joined by economist Ann Pettifor who says a “global slump” is now inevitable - so how bad will it be?

Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador by Sir Keir Starmer to the US was a rush-job, carried out under an 'atmosphere of pressure' from 10 Downing Street and a 'dismissive attitude' to security vetting. 

That's the claim of Sir Olly Robbins, the sacked head of the foreign office as he was grilled by parliament's foreign affairs committee. 

So, is it now clear what happened behind the scenes? 

No 10 denies Robbins’ characterisation of events, but could this still be damning for Starmer's premiership or has the PM's decision to sack his senior mandarin been vindicated?

On this episode of the Fourcast, Paul McNamara was joined by Labour MP Preet Kour Gill and also by one of Olly Robbins predecessors as head of the foreign office Lord Ricketts and former Labour advisor and political commentator Sonia Sodha.

In a world facing overlapping crises - from Sudan, to Lebanon to the wider issues in the Middle East - the demand for humanitarian aid has never been greater. But as needs grow, the global response is struggling to keep up.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, about the immense challenges of delivering life-saving support in today’s fractured world. How does the UN prioritise when everything is urgent?

With funding shortfalls, political barriers, and growing risks to civilians and aid workers, can the humanitarian system cope - and what happens if it can’t?