Investment Wars

Debate: Direct Lending and the Evolution of Private Credit

Featuring: Alona Gornick, Managing Director & Senior Investment Strategist at Churchill Asset Management (an affiliate of Nuveen, the $1 trillion asset management arm of TIAA) 

Alona Gornick joins Investment Wars to break down one of the fastest-growing corners of alternative investing: direct lending to private U.S. companies. In a wide-ranging conversation, she explores the history of private credit, how regulation and bank consolidation created opportunity for asset managers, and why institutions and now individual investors are turning to the space for income, diversification, and resilience. From the role of private equity sponsors to the rise of retail-friendly structures, this episode demystifies a complex but increasingly essential part of the investment landscape. 

In today’s episode, we explore:

Debate: Interest Rates and Economic Distortions 

Featuring: Paul Musson, Former Senior Portfolio Manager at Mackenzie Investments & Author of Capital Offence

Paul Musson joins Investment Wars to unpack one of the most misunderstood forces shaping modern markets: interest rates. In a thought-provoking conversation that touches on inflation, money supply, and the consequences of government intervention, Musson makes the case for economic education and a return to first principles. From the natural rate of interest to the dangers of debt-fueled consumption, this episode offers a sharp critique of how policy distorts the economy—and what investors need to understand to navigate it.

In today’s episode, we explore: 

Debate: Trade Imbalance – Is Reindustrialization the Key to U.S. Economic Resilience?

Featuring: Eli Horton, Senior Portfolio Manager & Investment Committee Member at TCW.

Eli Horton joins Investment Wars to debate one of the most pressing economic challenges of our time: the U.S. trade imbalance and the industrial response it demands. In a conversation spanning global supply chains, national security, and the race to rebuild domestic manufacturing, Horton explores how public and private capital expenditures (CapEx) and reshoring strategies are reshaping the investment landscape.

In today’s episode, we explore:

Debate: Energy Infrastructure – Will It Double in the Next Decade?

Featuring: Robert Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager & Investment Committee Member at Tortoise Capital.

As the U.S. power grid strains under the weight of rising demand, AI-fueled data centers, and shifting global energy dynamics, one sector stands at the center of it all: energy infrastructure. In this episode, we break down the critical—and often misunderstood—backbone of the modern energy system. With insights from industry veteran Rob Thummel, we explore:
 
In today’s episode, we explore:

Debate: How to Measure and Navigate Market Uncertainty

Featuring: Professor Nick Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Senior Fellow at SIEPR, and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Uncertainty is one of the most critical—and elusive—forces shaping markets today. How is it measured? How does it affect economic and financial market behavior? And what strategies can help investors navigate periods of high uncertainty?  

On Wednesday, April 2nd — “Liberation Day” — President Trump announced sweeping tariffs targeting countries with which the U.S. has trade imbalances. The tariffs, which disproportionately affected key allies, sent markets into a tailspin. In just 48 hours, U.S. equity markets suffered the greatest two-day destruction of market wealth on record. But even more troubling were the developments in the bond market, which ultimately triggered a 90-day policy pause.   While the direct math of tariffs implies rising inflation and falling consumption—raising risks of a recession or worse—the more complex and destabilizing element is uncertainty.
 
In today’s episode, we explore:

Debate: How Do I Select the “Right” ETF?

Featuring: Adam Pattiis the Co-founder and CEO of Vistashares, an ETF issuer designed to provide pure exposure to disruptive technology-driven supercycles. He is an industry pioneer and insider with vast ETF development and construction knowledge.

There are at least 24 artificial intelligence-themed ETFs in the market. How can we differentiate one from the other and make an appropriate decision about which to buy? What factors should we be considering?

In today’s episode, we explore:

Debate: LA Fires - The Complexities of Insurance

Featuring: Jerry Theodorou is the Director of the Finance, Insurance, and Trade Policy Program at the R Street Institute, a public policy research organization. In this role, he develops and promotes free-market public policy solutions to complex issues involving federal and state government interventions.

In January, the LA area was ravaged by a series of devastating wildfires, notably the Palisades and Eaton Fires. Collectively there were over 16,000 structures destroyed, tens of thousands of evacuees, and 29 fatalities. Wildfires seem to be an annual event in California, destroying property and risking lives. 

In today’s episode, we explore:

Debate: Innovation Episode - The Future of AI

Featuring: Tejas Dessai is a Director of Thematic Research at Global X. His research has been extensively covered in the tech and financial press, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, and Reuters. 

This is a timely conversation given the recent major release of DeepSeek V3 which upended the world of AI given its leap in efficiency – the claim is that it essentially matches the best available US models while being 20 – 50x cheaper to use. In this episode, Tejas and I have a broad conversation about AI and how it will affect the world, the economy, and the financial market going forward.

We regularly reference Global X’s fantastic Charting Disruptions Outlook for 2025 and Beyond. 

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Debate: Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2025?  

Featuring: JoAnne Bianco, CFA is a Partner and Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx. Bondbloxx is the first ETF issuer to focus solely on providing precision tools in managing exposures within Fixed Income Markets. Prior to joining Bondbloxx, JoAnne was a Senior Portfolio Manager at PPM as well as Director of Corporate Bond Research. She has over thirty years of relevant fixed income experience.    

This is a timely conversation in understanding some of the economic characteristics the Fed reviews as well as the many moving pieces globally that affect inflation, jobs, and the economy in general.  

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Debate: Are We Entering a New Golden Age of US Manufacturing?  

Featuring: Chris Semenuk is a fund manager at Tema ETFs where he is currently focusing on the theme of American Reshoring as captured in the American Reshoring ETF (Ticker: RSHO). Prior, Chris was with TIAA where he was a portfolio manager for a $5 billion equities mutual fund.  

The decision of where to place the next factory has become more complex as the cost in China and other global manufacturing hubs has increased dramatically as have the geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss how this story has evolved over the last twenty years before digging into the realities in the US, China, and globally as related to manufacturing.  

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Debate: Should We Invest in China?  

Featuring: Brendan Ahern, the Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares. He is a preeminent expert in global financial markets with a particular focus on China.  

China is considered the second largest economy in the world behind the US yet represents less than 5% of a typical diversified global equity exposure as compared to over 50% for the US. In this episode, we dive into the current state of the Chinese economy.  

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Debate: Why Are Interest Rates Now Declining?  

Featuring: Lara Rhame, the Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director on the Investment Research Team at FS Investments.  

Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds rate by 0.50%. This was the first decrease in rates in over two years, reflecting the start of an “easing” cycle. We explore what major market characteristics the Fed reviews in coming to their decision, and how this decision may affect yields both generally and to the economy as a whole.  

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Debate: What Will Jobs Look Like in 2040?  

Featuring: Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist with JP Morgan Asset Management assisting in formulating and communicating economic views, delivering timely commentary and maintaining forecasting models on behalf of JP Morgan. Additionally, Stephanie is on the committee that produces the long-term capital market assumptions underpinning JP Morgan’s strategic asset allocation process.  

Please note JP Morgan’s AI Hub which further details some of the ways AI will affect the future of jobs, a discussion point on our podcast.  

Last month, the Labor Department reduced its original estimate of jobs added in the prior year by 800,000! We explore why the large reduction as well as how many jobs adds are actually needed to maintain a humming economy prior to shifting focus on some of the characteristics affecting today’s job market. We further explore how innovations may change the look and feel of future jobs.  

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Debate: NEW JERSEY! Is NJ a Bellwether for What Lies Ahead for the US in a Complex and Changing World?

Featuring: John Hasse, Professor of Geography at Rowan University, Director of the Geospatial Research Lab, and Director of the Community and Environmental Planning Program.

New Jersey, the most dense state in the US, features 127 miles of coast, deep ports beneficial for shipping, prime agricultural soils, highlands, ridges and valleys. We explore how the “big history” of New Jersey affects its planning and its economy. And how what happens in New Jersey is both a microcosm of and a leading indicator for the future of the United States.  

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Debate: The Upcoming Election: Will the Winner Materially Affect Market Performance in the Near Term?

Featuring: Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.  

40% of the population will be devastated come November 5th as their (hopefully) voted for president-elect loses. While we emphasize and are saddened by the polarization in our political system, we explore how much our next president actually affects near term financial market performance.  

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Debate: How Demographics May Affect Future Interest Rate and Debt Levels  

Featuring: James Meyers, CFA, Principal and Portfolio Strategist for Prudential Group Investment Management (PGIM) Fixed Income.   

We discuss how shifting demographics (i.e. America is getting older!) will affect pretty much everything in our economy inclusive of productivity, tax rates, debt levels and interest rates. When a population ages, you simply have fewer people relative to the population able to participate in the workforce which puts pressure on all of society. Will innovation and further general advancements in technology allow us to mitigate these risks or are we heading into a lower-growth, more expensive environment?    

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Debate: Will the Crypto Ecosystem Disrupt Both Fiat Currency and Digital Technologies?

Featuring: David LaValle, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of ETFs at Grayscale Investments, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager.  

We discuss how cryptocurrencies may live side by side with a fiat currency like the US Dollar or the Nigerian Naira to use an example of a weaker currency and financial system and how one may think through elements of the crypto ecosystem such as currencies, smart contracts, and financial systems.  

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Debate: Will the Fed Really Cut Rates Three Times this Year?  

Featuring: Michael Shaoul, Chairman, Portfolio Manager and CEO of Marketfield Asset Management, an asset manager specializing in global macro investing.  

Macro investing focuses on an in-depth analysis of the economic, monetary and credit environments in assessing what markets and products to have exposure to. Using this context, one can better appreciate what it means to have set interest rates and how differing factors may contribute to headline inflation.  

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Debate: Do Recent Disruptions in the Real Estate Sector Create Opportunity in 2024?  

Featuring: Lauren Hochfelder, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing (“MSREI”) and Head of MSREI Americas, one of the longest-tenured real estate investment management businesses, with a number of offerings across the risk spectrum.

The Real Estate sector has experienced one disruption after another as Covid ravaged the commercial office building sector quickly followed by supply chain issues, increasing inflation and finally significantly higher borrowing costs affecting the values of property across America. We are privileged to have Lauren Hochfelder on the show to help navigate this complicated story and uncover potential opportunities.  

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Debate: Will Robots Take over the World?!

Featuring: Zeno Mercer, an expert on Robotics with VettaFi RoboGlobal Indexes. Zeno is an Investor & Researcher in Robotics, AI & Healthcare.

Amazon may have more robot “workers” than human ones. Robots are increasingly replacing humans on factory floors given upgrades in their technologies. Furthermore, robots may be an integral part of the answer to current and potential continuous labor shortages as reshoring occurs (note Episode 14) given recent geopolitical tensions and increased government spend in infrastructure and manufacturing.

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Debate: How Strong Is the Trend Towards Reshoring of Manufacturing?

Featuring: Chris Semenuk, Investment Partner with Tema ETFs.

Is the trend towards reshoring due to recent stresses to the global supply chain or a trend that has been occurring regardless and now simply accelerating due to geopolitical considerations? One may be surprised at conclusions drawn.

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Special Episode: An Insider View of Disruption within the Auto Industry

Featuring: Dr. Philip Koehn, who has over two decades of experience in the Luxury auto industry, formerly as Managing Director of Jaguar and prior as Chief Engineering Director for Rolls Royce Motors.

Some topics covered include:

Debate: Is Commercial Real Estate a Risk or Opportunity?

Featuring: Burl East, Portfolio Manager and Chief Executive Officer of American Assets Capital Advisers to speak with us about Real Estate.

Markets have priced in a significant decline in the commercial office space sector due primarily to the twin threats of the hybrid work environment and increased interest rates. Will office space go the way of the mall? Do these operator’s have the necessary interest coverage? And who are the winners and losers in the commercial space?

Additionally, Burl and I delve into other areas of the real estate market, including cell towers, industrial, and RV parks as real estate is so much more than simply office buildings and residential.

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Debate: "Will the US Have a Deep Recession?"

Featuring: Victoria Vogel, CFA, Senior Vice President and Product Specialist for Fixed Income at Trust Company of the West (TCW).

Simply stated, interest rates have increased 5.25% over the last 20 months which will place pressures on the consumer and business alike. Savings rates are at multi-decade highs as are credit card delinquencies with job growth and wages further diminishing. Learn more about some of the negative characteristics in the markets today that may spell a deeper recession than the street is expecting.

It is worth listening to this podcast AND the prior podcast where we spoke about whether the US would have a MILD recession in order to better appreciate some of the nuances driving the market.

In this podcast, our host, Joe Halpern, CIO of Fountainhead Asset Management has a wide ranging conversation with Victoria Vogel on the positives and negatives of today’s economy and what that may mean for a potential recession down the road.

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Debate: "Will the US Have a Shallow Recession?"

Featuring: Jack Janasiewicz, CFA, Portfolio Manager and Lead Portfolio Strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

Sticky inflation, a hawkish Fed that is keeping interest rates high, placing increasing pressure on borrowers, a concerning global geo-political environment. These are concerns for the economy, not to mention an inverted yield curve that traditionally ends with recession.

In this podcast, our host, Joe Halpern, CIO of Fountainhead Asset Management has a wide ranging conversation with Jack Janasiewicz, CFA, Portfolio Manager and Lead Portfolio Strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solution on the positives and negatives of today’s economy and what that may mean for a potential recession down the road.

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Debate: "How Do Higher Rates Affect the Economy and Market?"

Featuring:Bob Grunewald, CEO & Founder of Flat Rock Global, an alternative credit manager investing in areas of the credit market they believe are less efficient with the goal of preserving capital and generating current income.

In the face of a once in a century event, the government provided massive aid packages to the population during a period of already historically low interest rates. Consumer savings rates grew exponentially as remote work became a permanent feature and as service related businesses temporarily went off-line. At the same time, a global supply chain built for efficiency but not risk (i.e., redundancy and inventory) came to a screeching halt. The supply / demand construct went haywire and inflation increased worldwide. Then, Russia invaded Ukraine resulting in skyrocketing energy and food costs.

Many believed inflationary pressures would be temporary but it proved to be more stubborn than initially conceived. The Fed has so far raised interest rates at one of the quickest paces in history. This is considered “tightening” policy as the Fed is using this blunt tool to add expense to the system in addressing one of their primary objectives – to maintain inflation in a tight range. Consumers have used up much of those savings provided through aid packages and the student loan moratorium, which represents 9% of consumer debt is about to be up. Now both consumers and companies need to contend with materially higher borrowing costs.

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