NAB Morning Call

Friday 6th November 2026

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Phil and NAB's Gavin Friend break down a brutal tech-led sell-off on Wall Street as reality sets in over what a Democratic-controlled Congress means for big tech valuations and regulation. The Nasdaq plunged 5% and the S&P 500 tumbled 3.6%—dragging major names like Nvidia, Tesla, and Micron down between 8% and 15%—as investors price in heightened oversight, local moratoriums on massive AI data center build-outs, and fading odds of corporate tax breaks. The equity rout spurred a classic safe-haven flight into sovereign debt, with US 2-year Treasury yields sliding 11 basis points. In the UK, the Bank of England delivered a hawkish 25-basis-point rate hike—its first lift since August 2023—with member Catherine Mann pushing for 50 bps as Governor Andrew Bailey warned of sticky second-round inflation pressures. Meanwhile, oil prices staged a modest 2.8% rebound, French political gridlock deepened after the National Assembly rejected the revenue side of the budget bill, and markets ready for tonight's US non-farm payrolls release.

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Thursday 5th November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill, unpack a dramatic risk-on session across global financial markets following a decisive Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. With the prospect of less in the way of military action in the Middle east crude dipped below US$94 a barrel for the first time since late September. This, combined with the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement tweaking issuance guidance, fueled a powerful rally in sovereign debt that sent US 10-year Treasury yields down 7 basis points and French 10-year yields tumbling 18 basis points. Global equity markets surged in response, whilst the US dollar weakened, lifting the Australian dollar back above 70.2 US cents. Domestically, while stronger-than-expected Australian household spending data for September (+0.6%) highlighted ongoing consumer resilience ahead of a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Andrew Hauser, across the Tasman, New Zealand’s labour market surprised on the downside, with Q3 employment contracting 0.1% and the jobless rate rising to 5.7%, significantly paring back market expectations for an aggressive RBNZ rate hike in December.

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Wednesday 4th November 2026

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NAB’s Taylor Nugent assesses the fallout from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Melbourne Cup Day decision, where the Board delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase to lift the cash rate to 4.85%. Despite the rate rise, domestic bond yields and the Australian dollar both declined—with the Aussie dipping back below 70 US cents—as markets seized on a dovish 6–3 split vote and a subtle softening in the RBA’s forward guidance, reinforcing NAB’s view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now done and dusted. On Wall Street, tech equities mounted a modest recovery following recent steep losses, led by a bounce in semiconductor makers like Nvidia and AMD, though Apple slipped 1.8% despite beating quarterly revenue estimates. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped further—with Brent sliding toward US$103 a barrel—and US JOLTS data pointed to renewed labour mobility with a pickup in job openings and quits. Across the Pacific, all eyes now turn to the counting of the US midterm elections as polls close across the East Coast, with markets alert to the prospect of divided government in Washington.

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Tuesday 3rd November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril analyse a sharp drop in oil prices after reports surfaced that US President Trump is pursuing diplomatic de-escalation over Iran. That’s spurred a broader risk-on tone across financial markets, driving sovereign bond yields lower and boosting European and broad US equities, even as technology stocks lagged on persistent AI capex caution and pre-earnings nerves ahead of Apple’s results. Domestically, the spotlight turns to today’s Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, where markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point cash rate increase following last week’s sticky Q3 trimmed mean inflation print, even as building approvals data highlights mounting headwinds across the residential construction sector. Meanwhile, political focus intensifies around the US midterm elections, with polling pointing to an altered legislative landscape in Washington.

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Monday 2nd November 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday’s tech rout and tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup rate rise from the RBA. Ahead of the decision, new data from Cotality shows capital city dwelling values fell 1.4% in October—accelerating across previously heated property markets like Brisbane and Perth as cyclical rate pressures intersect with federal property tax reforms. Globally, markets digest the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause, softer official Chinese manufacturing PMIs, widening French sovereign bond spreads, and the looming risk of the upcoming US midterms alongside central bank rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Riksbank.

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Friday 30th October 2026

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Phil speaks with Paul Mortimer-Lee, Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and former Bank of England forecasting head, to examine the deepening fiscal strain across Europe and determine whether France or the UK is in a more dangerous position. Paul argues that France is caught in a structural spending trap—with government outlays at an eye-watering 57% of GDP and political fragmentation making deficit reduction nearly impossible—leaving markets to rely on the moral hazard of an eventual European Central Bank intervention, even if its untested Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) faces legal and political hurdles. By contrast, while the UK’s Autumn Budget deferred meaningful consolidation via a "flotilla of small measures" amid rising debt-servicing costs and overambitious welfare dependency, London’s independent currency and floating exchange rate mean market discipline bites faster, whereas France lacks an exchange rate valve to offset its competitiveness gap against the rest of Europe. With Germany’s constitutional debt brake hampering broader continental growth and bond markets demanding higher risk premiums, Paul reckons that French 10-year yields could surge another 100 basis points and provoke banking contagion before European policymakers reluctantly to step in. But beyond that, does this point to an instability that the Euro - or the ECB – can’t survive?

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Friday 30th October 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Gavin Friend explore a risk-off session across equity markets triggered by a fresh wave of artificial intelligence anxiety following Alphabet’s quarterly earnings. Alphabet tumbled nearly 13%—marking one of the largest single-day market-cap wipeouts on record—as investors grew alarmed by ballooning AI capital expenditure running alongside signs that conversational AI search tools are beginning to cannibalise its core advertising revenue. The resulting tech sell-off pulled the Nasdaq down 1.5% and overshadowed otherwise robust US macroeconomic data, which saw Q3 GDP beat expectations at an annualised 3.4% and personal consumption rise 3.8% despite core PCE edging up to 3.1%. In Europe, the ECB held its policy rates steady as expected, but Christine Lagarde was sounding hawkish in the press conference, as well as announcing he will step down early as ECB President in February 2027 to freely voice her views on broader European issues, including the French debt crisis. Meanwhile, bond yields edged lower in safe-haven trades, oil prices retreated below US$115 per barrel for Brent, and the Australian dollar slipped back towards 70.3 US cents as markets await the Bank of Japan's rate decision.

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Thursday 29th October 2026

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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Ray Attrill unpack a frantic 24 hours of central bank decisions, domestic inflation data, and shifting rate calls. Global bond yields plunged—led by a sharp 8-basis-point drop in US two-year Treasury yields—after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a surprisingly dovish tone during his post-FOMC press conference, suggesting inflation medicine is taking effect and casting doubt on a December hike, whilst holding rates steady today. In Wellington, the RBNZ delivered a major shock by voting 4–3 to hold rates on hold rather than deliver a widely priced hike, sending the Kiwi dollar sliding 1%, while the Bank of Canada moved in the opposite direction with a 25-basis-point increase. Domestically, with Australian Q3 trimmed mean CPI printing at a sticky 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (4.3% year-on-year) alongside hawkish parliamentary testimony from Governor Michele Bullock, NAB has officially updated its forecast to call for an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day next week. Meanwhile, Brent crude edged back above US$115 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions, French bond spreads continued to widen, and equity markets braced for high-stakes post-market earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft.

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Wednesday 28th October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Skye Masters break down a risk-on session across global equity markets set against a tense, pivotal day for monetary policy. Wall Street rallied—led by a 2.2% surge in the Nasdaq and broad tech strength—fuelled by news of mega-cap chip-financing deals and solid US consumer confidence readings. The primary focus, however, turns squarely to domestic macro data, with Australian Q3 CPI arriving today. With markets pricing in roughly a 60% probability of an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day, Skye explains why NAB sees downside risks to the consensus 1.0% trimmed mean expectation. Across global central banks, attention turns to meetings for the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, and the FOMC, alongside the delivery of the UK budget.

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Tuesday 27th October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Rodrigo Catril unpack a choppy overnight session marked by major political shifts, geopolitical tension, and resilient tech sentiment. Brazilian markets faced sharp domestic repricing after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a runoff victory, while geopolitical attention turns to the neck-and-neck Israeli elections. On Wall Street, equities pushed higher—led by a broad-based rally across technology and semiconductors following news of Anthropic's planned public listing—even as investors keep a cautious eye on upcoming earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon alongside the FOMC meeting. In bond markets, French 10-year yields tightened 12 basis points against German Bunds following Moody's decision to hold France's sovereign rating steady, while Brent crude remains elevated above USD$115/bbl amid ongoing Middle East security risks. Closer to home, the Australian dollar held firm above 70 US cents as markets await crucial domestic Q3 CPI figures to gauge whether or not the RBA's rate-hiking cycle is over, or at least delayed.

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Monday 26th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton at the start of what is set to be one of the most critical weeks of the year for global financial markets. Investors face a relentless barrage of catalysts: five major central bank meetings (including the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, FOMC, ECB, and the Bank of Japan), high-stakes quarterly earnings from Big Tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, the Israeli national election, and the looming shadow of next week’s US midterms. Oil prices broke through the USD$117/bbl mark on Friday as geopolitical tensions flared across the Middle East, while flash PMIs revealed unexpected resilience in the UK and steady momentum in the US alongside mounting cost pressures. Domestically, the Australian dollar pushed above 70 US cents ahead of this week’s critical Q3 Australian CPI release, which follows hawkish rhetoric from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter on 60 minutes last night, leaving market expectations split on a potential Melbourne Cup Day rate hike.

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Friday 23rd October 2026

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In this Weekend Edition, Phil speaks with Erin Leigh Brown, co-author of the Grattan Institute's landmark report Budget Reboot: How to Fund Australia's Future. They break down Grattan's controversial proposed tax reform package: broadening and raising the GST from 10% to 15% across all goods (including fresh food, health, and education) to raise $76 billion annually, while directing $33 billion to targeted income tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners and $25 billion to welfare boosts. Brown addresses criticisms from both sides of the political spectrum—responding to free-market arguments around state expenditure controls as well as welfare advocate concerns regarding GST regressivity—and explains how the package aims to put low-income households $150 a week ahead while creating fiscal room to replace inefficient state taxes like stamp duty.

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Friday 23rd October 2026

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Phil is joined by NAB's Gavin Friend to analyse a sharp risk-off session across global markets, driven by tech valuation worries and ongoing Middle East energy supply disruptions. US equities fell heavily—led by a 2.7% drop in the Nasdaq following Meta’s increased capital expenditure outlook—while benchmark Brent crude oil surged near $113 per barrel amid Houthi drone strikes and escalating transport costs. Investors rushed into safe-haven Treasuries, pushing US 10-year yields down 16 basis points, while European bond markets saw further divergence as French OAT yields jumped on fiscal uncertainty, pushing the French German 10-year spread wider. Market attention will remain on US tech earnings alongside central bank decisions next week, and preliminary October PMI prints today.

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Thursday 22nd October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Taylor Nugent discuss how market sentiment around AI is rebounding following strong Q3 earnings from SpaceX, even as local infrastructure bottlenecks loom large—highlighted by NextDC's 42% stock plunge following delays to its Melbourne data centre rollout. Domestically, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the inflation backdrop has "materially worsened" relative to August projections, pushing market pricing for a November rate hike to nearly 50%, while NAB's monthly spend tracking showed resilient consumer spending driven primarily by non-mortgage holders. Globally, French 10-year bond yields climbed past 5% for the first time since 2002 as fiscal debate drags on, UK inflation printed slightly higher than expected at 3.5%, and oil prices remained elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent.

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Wednesday 21st October 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil to break down a highly volatile session where investors remain caught between geopolitical oil shocks and European political instability. Crude oil touched a five-month high near $112 a barrel before pulling back to hover around $108 for Brent. In Europe, widening political and fiscal unrest in France drove French 10-year government bond (OAT) yields higher and widened the OAT-Bund spread past 150 basis points, though markets showed little signs of broader European contagion. On Wall Street, tech stocks staged a recovery ahead of major earnings releases from Meta and SpaceX, while US pending home sales plunged 12.6% year-over-year under the weight of elevated mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar briefly touched 70 US cents.

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Monday 19th October 2026

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NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to navigate a session defined by rising global bond yields, with US 10-year Treasuries up 7 basis points to 5.15% and French 10-year yields jumping 13 basis points amid worsening social unrest and local curfew proposals. US equities pulled off a tech-led rebound ahead of key corporate earnings. Oil prices edged higher but found strong technical resistance near $110 a barrel for Brent, balancing regional escalation—such as Houthi strikes targeting Saudi transit hubs—against reports that Middle Eastern crude export flows remain near 80% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rallied half a percent toward the 70 US cent mark on broader currency strength, though domestic monetary tightening expectations and economic slowing continue to cap a broader breakout.

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Monday 19th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this morning’s volatile backdrop for global financial markets, driven by tech sentiment, geopolitical pivots, and domestic unrest. Equity markets ended the week under pressure, led by a 2.1% drop in the Nasdaq on Friday as investors focused on the escalating debt and borrowing costs associated with the massive AI data center build-out, with firms like CoreWeave at the center of credit stress. Geopolitical uncertainty flared after President Trump moved to lift select sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil and gas, prompting Ukraine to step up retaliatory drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a major attack on the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Meanwhile, market sentiment across Europe is being tested by widespread student and public-sector protests in France over severe budget cuts and austerity proposals, threatening broader sovereign debt spreads. Looking ahead, investors face a busy week of Q3 earnings reports, flash PMIs, and critical Chinese GDP and activity data.

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Friday 16th October 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Tom Jensen, Head of International Freight & Logistics at the Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA), to unpack the relentless disruptions hitting global sea freight. From post-COVID supply chain adjustments and soaring landside fees to the Red Sea crisis and escalating Middle East tensions, the conversation explores how foreign shipping lines are passing on heavy conflict surcharges and longer transit costs to Australian importers and exporters. Jensen details the impact of global carrier consolidation, vertical integration into landside terminals, and the structural imbalance between 40-foot import containers and 20-foot/reefer export demand. He also sheds light on Australia's port efficiency challenges, landside empty container park fees, Part X competition law exemptions, and the Federal Government's trial of a strategic fleet to safeguard national supply chains.

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Friday 16th October 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil after a turbulent 24 hours across global and domestic markets. Investors pulled capital out of the tech sector amid rising concerns over AI-related corporate debt and capital spending, driving a safe-haven rally into US Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields down, well below the post-CPI highs. On the domestic front, the Australian dollar dropped sharply below 69.2 US cents after September employment data showed a net fall of 39,000 jobs and an unemployment rate edging up to 4.7%. Meanwhile, US producer price inflation surprised to the upside with a 1.3% monthly surge, reinforcing expectations of persistent cost pressures ahead of scheduled remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok.

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Thursday 15th October 2026

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to break down the market fallout from higher-than-expected US CPI data, where headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.7%. The surprise print triggered an immediate knee-jerk reaction across asset classes—sending the US Dollar Index up half a percent, pushing equities lower (with the Nasdaq down 1.9%), and sparking a wild 14-basis-point intra-session spike in 2-year US Treasury yields before bond yields eventually retraced. Locally attention shifts to today's crucial Australian September employment figures; following August's sharp jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. What will today’s print mean for the RBA’s November decision?.

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Wednesday 14th October 2026

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In today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes firmly on the table. Globally, equity markets traded softer as the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook flagged rising inflation forecasts and elevated bond yields as primary systemic risks, while US markets digested a mixed bag of Q3 bank earnings ahead of crucial CPI data.

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Tuesday 13th October 2026

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Semiconductor stocks are taking a beating as competition from China and internal US pressures weigh heavily on tech, while oil prices continue their climb as the Middle East conflict flares and the energy ceasefire fails to hold. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to break down the latest market turbulence. They analyse the rising US dollar and sliding Australian dollar, escalating fiscal concerns in France driving bond spreads wider, and what to expect from today's key local releases—including the NAB Business Survey and the RBA meeting minutes.

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Monday 12th October 2026

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A fresh escalation of Middle East conflict is overshadowing energy markets after Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport, clashing with President Trump's announced US-Russia diesel agreement and reported Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack the competing market drivers. They analyze the Friday rebound in global equities and lower bond yields, the latest CFTC positioning data showing growing Euro short positions, and the week ahead—highlighting US CPI, Australian labor force data, the RBA minutes, and the start of Q3 bank earnings.

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Friday 9th October 2026

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Australia’s housing market continues to present a puzzling contradiction: despite record-low vacancy rates and a severe structural shortage of housing, rental price growth has stalled—and in major cities like Sydney and Canberra, house rents are actually falling. On this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Dr. Nicola Powell, Chief Residential Economist at Domain, to unpack the underlying forces shaping the market. They explore whether affordability ceilings are forcing renters to adjust household sizes, how recent government tax settings and investor sentiment are shifting capital, and why traditional supply-and-demand rules are producing unexpected outcomes across major capital cities.

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Friday 9th October 2026

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Risk-off sentiment dominated global markets as geopolitical tensions flared in the Persian Gulf. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss a turbulent session sparked by an attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, which sent Brent crude surging toward $104 a barrel alongside hurricane-related production cut. Energy cost spikes and tech sector drags—amplified by OpenAI revenue concerns and potential US visa restrictions—weighed heavily on equities. Meanwhile, what will hawkish signals from Fed Governor Christopher Waller mean for rate expectations?

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Thursday 8th October 2026

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Oil drifts lower, French yields rocket, and the FOMC minutes reveal a Federal Reserve that is far from done worrying about inflation. Phil is joined by NAB’s Ray Attrill who says the newly released FOMC minutes are a little more dovish than anticipated, whilst the NY Fed’s consume inflation expectations pushed higher. Meanwhile fiscal strain in France is pushing bond spreads wider across the Eurozone, and Brent crude has slipped back under $100 a barrel despite another sharp drop in US stockpiles. Today it’s a case of words not numbers. Ray explains why.

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Wednesday 7th October 2026

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The S&P 500 has notched its first fresh all-time high since August, supported by optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season and steadying US Treasury yields. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil is joined by NAB’s Gavin Friend to dissect the market moves—starting with a sharp pullback in French bond yields after far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen pledged a "golden rule" deficit reduction plan to stabilize public finances. The pair also explore the broader macro drivers, including crude oil holding below $100/bbl despite Middle East supply bottlenecks, hawkish inflation warnings from Fed officials, German factory order slumps, and a widening US trade deficit ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes.

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Tuesday 6th October 2026

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US equity markets kicked off the week with solid gains as the tech sector pushed higher, but fixed income markets continued to grapple with elevated yields as US 10-year Treasuries pushed up to 5.34%. Following a long weekend in parts of Australia, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Taylor Nugent unpack a busy start to October, analysing Friday's softer-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls print (+28k) and its impact on Fed rate expectations. Across the Atlantic, European markets are dealing with fresh political and fiscal strain, with French bond yields under pressure amid budget debates and Spain announcing a snap election. Meanwhile, crude oil remains volatile above $100/bbl despite G7 inventory releases and Middle East shipping developments.

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Friday 2nd October 2026

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As artificial intelligence rapidly transforms from a speculative tech trend into the primary driver of global market returns, how are institutional investors actually positioning their capital for the road ahead? This Phil Dobbie sits down with Damien Webb, Chief Investment Officer for Brighter Super, fresh off an insightful trip to Silicon Valley meeting with frontier AI labs, quantum computing founders, and top academic minds.

Damien shares why his boots-on-the-ground experience left him overwhelmingly optimistic about the tech supercycle—and why superannuation funds can't afford to sit on the sidelines. From the soaring commodity demand for copper and energy infrastructure to revolutionary medical breakthroughs in GLP-1 drugs and cancer treatments, how do institutional investors balance high-valuation risks against transformative upside? Is the ongoing surge in global bond yields the ultimate reality check for tech balance sheets? Tune in for a fascinating dive into portfolio construction, private equity opportunities, and what riding in an autonomous Waymo car reveals about our economic future!

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Friday 2nd October 2026

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France's escalating budget woes and fiscal watchdog criticism have sent sovereign bond markets into a tizzy, causing French-German yield spreads to widen sharply. On today's edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Ken Crompton break down these mixed global signals—from France's budget strain to rising US manufacturing prices and mortgage rates hitting 7.28%. Despite lower US Treasury yields following a brief flight to quality, the US dollar remains firm while crude oil rebounds above $102. The pair also examine Australia’s Financial Stability Review, falling job vacancies, and what today's key US Non-Farm Payrolls report means for upcoming Fed rate expectations.

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Thursday 1st October 2026

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Global financial markets are navigating a sharp divergence between the US and Europe, driven entirely by conflicting inflation trends. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack why resilient US economic data, cooler-than-expected Core PCE prints, and upward GDP revisions are supporting Wall Street, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.30%. In contrast, hot European inflation prints across Germany and France are weighing on sentiment and lifting ECB rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has slipped below 69.5 US cents following softer-than-forecast domestic inflation data, which has led markets to tone down expectations for back-to-back RBA rate hikes.

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Wednesday 30th September 2026

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Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, market attention has shifted to Governor Michele Bullock’s post-meeting press conference. NAB's Taylor Nugent says her commentary hinted that the RBA may be returning to its "narrow path" balancing inflation control against labour market conditions, softening some of the hawkish expectations for follow-up hikes. Meanwhile, global bond yields continue their upward trend, pushing 30-year US Treasuries to multi-decade highs, as markets digest a softer US JOLTS job openings report, declining US consumer confidence, and European inflation updates. Looking ahead, today brings Australia's August CPI data alongside the US PCE inflation report and Chinese PMI reads.

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Tuesday 29th September 2026

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As crude oil holds above $105 a barrel and US 10-year Treasury yields surge to 5.24%, markets are grappling with how much further central banks can push policy rates to restrain persistent inflation. On today’s podcast Phil talks with NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Sally notes that while US growth resilience and structural Capex demand are driving global yields higher, Australia’s cooling PMIs and softening business survey data suggest the RBA is operating in a vastly different cyclical environment than its peers. The pair also examine Nvidia’s historic $150 billion share buyback, the US-China tariff cuts and key global data reads including US JOLTS and Canadian GDP.

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Monday 28th September 2026

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Donald Trunp has knocked back Iran’s proposal that could have seen the Strait of Hormuz reopen within seven-days. Instead, the US President believes economic sanctions will ultimately have the desired outcome. So, does that mean oil prices will bounce higher this morning? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the volatility will continue, but news this morning suggesting talks are ongoing might temper any negative sentiment. It’s a busy week ahead with the RBA decision tomorrow, CPI middle of the week and payrolls data for the US.

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Friday 25th September 2026

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The hipsters live inside the goat’s cheese curtain before they start a family and move to the burbs in search of their quarter acre block. That’s the traditional pattern of life in Australia, but demographer Bernard Salt, from the Demographics Group, says major changes are afoot. Fertility rates of younger people are falling faster than expected, and people are living longer than forecast. It’s not an Australia-only phenomenon of course, but it brings forward the peak-human horizon. This week Bernard joins Phil to discuss how the changes are good news for Australia, but only if we have a plan.

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Friday 25th September 2026

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The "V" word is firmly back on the agenda as geopolitical friction, soaring energy prices, and relentless sovereign yield pressures inject fresh ‘volatility’ across global markets. This morning Phil and NAB’s Taylor Nugent break down the forces driving crude oil back over $106 a barrel as Red Sea insurance premiums soar and Middle East tensions escalate. Meanwhile, sovereign bond markets continue their dramatic bear steepening amid a persistent chorus of hawkish Fed commentary and lukewarm Treasury buyback demand. Closer to home, Australian unemployment has jumped to 4.6% despite solid headline jobs growth, while NAB’s Q3 Business Survey reveals tightening margins and deteriorating trading conditions. After the announcement of a trade truce extension, will the Trump-Xi meeting today offer further geopolitical relief?

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Thursday 24th September 2026

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The US dollar and global bond yields have risen sharply. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a bit part of this was stronger than expected PMIs, particularly for the US. It shows demand isn’t falling, whilst oil supplies remain a concern. So much of a concern that the US is limiting diesel exports to shore-up its domestic supplies. The US is attempting to bring down longer dated yields with a $6 billion buyback today. Phil asks, if it didn’t work last time, what will be different now? Australian labour market data is out later today, but the path for the RBA already seems to be set. And President Xi sets foot in the US today; an extension to the moratorium on tariffs is the best that can be hoped for.

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Wednesday 23rd September 2026

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Oil is now trading below $100 after President Trump says talk have gone well with Iran during the UN General Assembly in New York, with more talks scheduled I’n the near future’. NAB’s Ken Crompton says news of the east-west Saudi pipeline reopening has also helped. Markets have ignored the more extreme language of ‘annihilating’ the Republic if talks don’t go well. And what of Michelle Bullock’s fireside chat? ‘Well, it’s inflation that’s on fire,’ says Ken on today’s podcast. Meanwhile, the focus today will be on the UN General Assembly and the PMIs for Europe and the US.

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Tuesday 22nd September 2026

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Oil ticked below $99 momentarily overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says reports of more traffic through the Strait have helped, along with a comment from the US president that he wlll ‘probably’ talk with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN Assembly this week/ But oil doesn’t want to stay below 100. Falling oil prices have helped bring down European bond yields. In a quiet session data wise there’s been much focus on comments from Chicago Fed chair Austan Goolsbee who suggested that growth might take a hit in the fight to control inflation. Expect Michelle Bullockto deliver similar messaging today in her fireside chat at the CEDA event at the Fullerton hotel in Sydney this lunchtime.

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Monday 21st September 2026

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Even though the Bank of Japan lifted rates, as widely anticipated, the Yen lost ground on Friday. NAB’s Sally Auld says the 7-2 vote split was responsible for the caution, particularly as the two dissenters were recent government appointees. There’s also speculation of currency intervention, although Sally questions the logic of that right now. Instability in European politics has seen swift movement in bond yields. Over the weekend the Greenland deal and Ukraine’s largest attack on Moscow so far have been the major Europe-centric headlines. There’s also discussion of Friday’s senate hearing where Michelle Bullock announced they have stepped off the narrow path balancing inflation and jobs. She made it clear, inflation is the main concern right now.

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Friday 18th September 2026

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With the US midterm elections looming and the threat of Republican losses hanging over Capitol Hill, how much should investors actually care about a potential shift in congressional power? This weekend on the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab and host of the Washington Wise podcast, to break down the realistic market fallout of an impending balance-of-power shakeup. Michael explains why history points to Democrats likely flipping the House while the Senate hangs on a knife-edge, but cautions against overestimating the political noise: historically, Wall Street doesn't care who wins—it simply rallies once the uncertainty is over and gridlock prevents policy overreach. With stubborn inflation, Middle East supply shocks keeping gas prices high, Fed rate hikes, and corporate debt from the AI boom dominating the landscape, does the battle for Capitol Hill even matter to the bottom line, or has the market already learned to shrug off Washington's daily drama?

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Friday 18th September 2026

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Markets have shrugged off their early response to the hawkish press conference from Kevin Warsh yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the unwound started soon after the initial response, with bond yields falling and shares recovering. Both have been helped by a further reduction in oil prices, on hopes of resumed Saudi supply through their east-west pipeline. Ken and Phil also talk about the Bank of England yesterday and the assumption that the Bank of Japan will lift rates today. But what if they don’t?

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Thursday 17th September 2026

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A unanimous decision from the Fed to lift rates and, a s NAB’s Ray Attrilll explains, at least  one more rate hike seems likely this year. The market response was fairly muted initially after the short statement talked about how the resilience in the economy was adding to the supply-side inflation worries, but it was Kevin Warsh’s press conference that drew the biggest response. So what did he say? Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold despite rising inflation numbers yesterday. How long can they hod that stance? It’s a similar question for the RBNZ, particularly if there is clear growth in today’s GDP numbers. 

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Wednesday16th September 2026

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Bond yields are still at multi-year highs, driven by inflation concerns, in turn driven by oil prices, which are still rising, alongside expectations for rate hikes from central banks. NAB’s Skye Masters says markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Fed tomorrow morning (our time) but there will be interest in the dots plot (whilst it’s still a thing) to determine future moves. Phil and Skye also look at the rise in Japanese Government Bonds Yields. As Phil points out, the last time they were this high nobody had heard of the Spice Girls.

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Tuesday 15th September 2026

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Rising bond yields, rising oil prices, bond yields higher. Today is a repetition of yesterday as the same pressures drive markets - the Middle East, AI growth concerns, inflation fears and central bank expectations. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss market reactions and where she thinks expectations might be a little over-egged. Why, for example, asks Phil, is the market expecting hikes from the Bank of Canada this week when yesterday’s data shows inflation seems to be more under control there than in most places? Today’s UK jobs data precedes a Bank of England rate announcement on Thursday.

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Monday 14th September 2026

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It’s curious that the CEO of a major AI platform argues that AI development should be slowed down in case it causes serious problems, when that same company has its sights set on a share market listing. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril makes that point on today’s podcast with Phil, as they also examine the impact of Friday’s higher than expected inflation read from the US. And the rising uncertainty for middle east oil supplies. And should we take Canada seriously when they talk about becoming an associate member of the EU or is it just talk to upset the US? Phil suggests if they really want to upset the US they should join the Euro!

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Friday 11th September 2026

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As global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence climbs toward $1.8 trillion, Australia finds itself at a pivotal crossroads between world-class research and commercial execution. On this weekend’s NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with former CSIRO Chief Executive Dr. Larry Marshall to examine whether the nation is poised to pioneer high-value AI solutions or remain a passive consumer of overseas technology. While Australia boasts an impressive legacy of scientific breakthroughs—from Wi-Fi to solar cell designs—Dr. Marshall warns that a historical failure to commercialise ideas leaves local jobs and industries exposed as AI replaces entry-level roles. However, by deploying a clear "market vision" and leveraging domestic strengths in areas like photonics to slash data centre energy demands, Australia can capture genuine economic value, create augmented "superpower" jobs, and secure its strategic footing in the global AI landscape.

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Friday 11th September 2026

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At a press conference overnight ECB’s Christine Lagarde said it was a ‘no brainer’ to lift rates, given the inflation pressures and a resilient economy. More is expected according to NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. They discuss the two big moves overnight - oil prices, now well beyond $100 a barrel - and the continued rise in bond yields, with 10 year treasuries rising by 11 basis points and 30 years hitting the highest level since 2007. With no obvious driver in the day’s news flow Skye wonders whether a chunk of the moves can be put down to positioning. There will be a lot of focus on today’s moves, particularly ahead of US CPI, out tonight.

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Thursday 10th September 2026

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Oil prices rose further overnight as Iran fired at US navy vessels, forcing counter attacks from both sides. One Iranian official described it as an existential fight for survival for which there is no backing down. Bond yields rose sharply in the US and Europe overnight, despite Scott Bessen t’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback in 10–20-year bonds. NAB’s Sally Auld says yields rose because the size of the buyback was less than expected, whilst the same factors remain to push yields higher, including the level of debt and the competition from bond issuance from AI companies who continue to up their spending. Tonight the ECB is expected to lift rates, as markets prepare for US CPI tomorrow, with PPI data out tonight.

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Wednesday 9th September 2026

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Oil is higher because more is happening in the Middle East. That’s adding to inflation concerns. There are tensions elsewhere too- between the US and Israel (Israel has closed a UK consulate in East Jerusalem), and between the US and Canada with Canada imposing tit for tat tariffs, whilst promising closer ties with Europe. Locally the NAB Business Survey showed a move down in confidence, as did the Westpac consumer survey. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much falling house prices had to play in both those results. 

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Tuesday 8th September 2026

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Trade was thin overnight with the US on holiday, but the Yen pushed to its highest level since February, beating the US-Japan coordinated attempt to push it higher in late July. NAB’s Gavin friend says markets are assuming the BoJ will do the right thing, which would make the Yen seem undervalued. Oil is higher and could easily nudge over US$100 for Brent over the next day or two. Copper also hit a high as demand continues to outstrip supply, and traders buy ahead for fear of US tariffs coming to fruition. Today there’s a lot to focus on locally, including two interviews with RBA speakers, the NAB Business Survey and Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment report.

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Monday 7th September 2026

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Non-farm payrolls numbers in the US on Friday were strong, including an upward revision to the previous two months. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it is difficult to argue against the idea the labour market there is in particularly good health. That removes one reason for the Fed not to lift rates next week, so everything now rests on the CPI and PPI data this week. The US president  meanwhile argues that the Fed should be taking rates to the lowest in the world, whilst threatening to stop trade with any country they have a trade deficit with. Oil moved higher on Friday and could easily top $100 this week as tensions heighten in the Gulf, despite Presidential claims that oil traffic is close to pre-war levels.

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Friday 4th September 2026

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It’s an uncertain world, perhaps more than ever before. Brad Carr is NAB’s Executive for Geopolitical Risk and he joins Phil to discuss the five themes that concern him. That includes the ongoing war in the Middle East and the increasing sophistication of cybercrime. The third issue is the new trade order, where global supply changes are being replaced by self-reliance and self-interest. We are also about to face the Super El Niño, impacting the Australian agricultural sector which is already struggling with higher fertiliser costs. Finally, Brad suggests increasing assertiveness from China presents a threat. There are other concerns too, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifts in European politics and the multifaceted risks of AI. Brad acknowledges he is often portrayed as the doomsayer at NAB, but he said the positive counter is that Australia is protected from the worst aspects of much of this, by nature of our geography, geology and political structure. And Brad outlines three areas of focus we should adopt to ensure we benefit from the uncertainty, not get dragged down by it.

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Friday 4th September 2026

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There might not need to be a rate hike from the Fed. That’s been the takeout from a Reuters interview overnight with the bank's Christopher Waller, who suggested there are signs of disinflation which might mean there’s less need for a policy adjustment. There was a swift response in bond markets and a weakening US dollar. There’s also been a substantial rise in the Yen. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, why? Waller’s comments make next week’s CPI figures more significant than ever and Rodrigo suggests the number to look for. Meanwhile, non-farm payrolls tonight will also be influential, with some signs that the jobs market is weakening.

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Thursday 3rd September 2026

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Unease in the Gulf continues to push oil prices higher today and fears of persistent inflation mean bond yields continue to rise in Europe. expectations for rate hikes, eve n as they moderate a little in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phi to talk through a mixed session, influenced by a hawkish Bank of Canada, a dovish RBNZ and words from the fed’s John Williams suggesting inflationary pressures in the US might be easing. Meanwhile yesterday’s stronger than expected GDP numbers for Australia reinforce NAB’s view that the RBA will hike later this month.  

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Wednesday 2nd September 2026

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Oil prices have risen sharply with further attacks from both sides in the Gulf. That’s pushed bond yields higher in a world that is struggling to contain inflation. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about the issue of rising yields which, in Japan have hit a 30 year high. New UK PM Andy Burnham gave his first speech to parliament, and yields there have risen 16bp, which Ray describes as another example of bond vigilantes at work. They also look ahead to today’s Australian GDP numbers, which are unlikely to change NAB’s view that the RBA will lift rates at their next meeting. Meanwhile the RBNZ is expected to lift rates today, with the Bank of Canada holding back for now.

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Tuesday 1st September 2026

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Month end rebalancing has been complicated by Scott Bessent talking up the case for successive rate rises by the Bank of Japan, to help boost the Yen, whilst attacks from both sides in the Gulf has reaffirmed that the war is not over and oil prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through all this, plus the continued weakness in the Chinese economy, and the latest data to feed into tomorrow’s Australian GDP numbers. 

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Monday 31st August 2026

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Could Kevin Warsh be more hawkish than Jerome Powell was? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks to Phil about the Fed chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, which now has markets pricing a greater chance than not of a rate hike at the next meeting. They also discuss President Trump’s plan for a US government majority stake in a massive new Venezuelan oil company. Will it happen? There’s little evidence so far of Operation Economic Outcast. There’s a busy week ahead for data, including European inflation today, Australian GDP mid-week, two central banks and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

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Friday 28th August 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Edward Sterck, Director of Research at the World Platinum Investment Council, to explore whether platinum is emerging as a higher-torque alternative to gold in the precious metals complex. Sterck explains how sustained market deficits—driven by severe geological supply constraints and deep-level underground mining limitations—initially catalyzed platinum's price rally before broader macro trends like US dollar debasement and geopolitical tensions began driving its movements alongside gold and silver. The conversation highlights platinum’s unique position, contrasting gold's monetary status with platinum's vital industrial demand in green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction, and expanding applications in AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing. With global mine supply heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia and facing structural headwinds that prevent quick production scalings, he highlights why platinum offers higher upside leverage (a 1.3 beta to gold) and why supply deficits are projected to persist well into the next decade.

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Friday 28th August 2026

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NAB has made the call that they expect the RBA to lift rates in September. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a hike. Expectations rose after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through NAB’s reasoning, as well as yesterday’s Capex numbers and upside surprise in household spending. They also discuss the rise in equities following yesterday’s NVIDIA earnings, oil rising against tensions in the Gulf and Ukraine, and rising hawkishness from the Fed alongside the Jackson Hole Symposium, ahead of Kevin Warsh speaking tonight. And a cause for celebration tomorrow!

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Thursday 27th August 2026

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Wherever you look inflation is not coming down as quickly as hoped or expected. NAB’s Sally Auld identifies why yesterday’s Australian CPI numbers were such a surprise, and why it’s heightened expectations for a rate hike. That’s pushed front end yields higher, which has boosted the Aussie dollar, even against a rising US dollar. The RBA may not be alone. US Core PCE numbers showed inflation is persistent there too, and the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel was sounding particularly hawkish as well yesterday. Soon, NVIDIA earnings are out, the bellwether stock for AI. Their shares are down ahead of the close.

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Wednesday 26th August 2026

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Oil prices fell sharply overnight, driving front-end bond yields lower and boosting shares. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what’s changed? There are reports that more oil is being shipped from Iraq, possibly with support being offered Iran, but the Achille’s heal of Operation Economic Rescue is how can you go hard on Iran’s trading partners without upsetting China and kicking off another trade war. The trade war with Canada meanwhile continues to ratchet up, whilst economic data from the US was largely bad, including a very disappointing consumer sentiment survey which suggests the future is less bright. Today the monthly CPI read is the key data point locally.

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Tuesday 25th August 2026

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This morning NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss Scott Bessent’s plan to isolate Iran economically and how it could impact China. There’s also been market reaction to Bessent’s plan to fund some of his bond buybacks by drawing down surplus funds from the Treasury account at the Fed. The threat of a 50 percent tariff on car exports from Canada is the latest iteration from the ongoing trade war, but it won’t be imposed till well after the mid-terms. Today is quiet data wise, giving you more time to read the RBA minutes!

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Monday 24th August 2026

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could dominate finance news this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss his two bg challenges. First, will we get more of the Treasury Twist -selling long date bonds to bring down yields? More immediately, what’s the plan to impose the massive economic sanctions on Iran that President Trump is promising, and will that mean fresh tariffs on China? A slice of Canada’s exports are now tariffed at 50% as trade talks with the US broke down on Friday. And they talk through the week ahead, which will be a busy one for Australian data.

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Friday 14th August 2026

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With the UK and Europe facing an unprecedented mix of geopolitical, environmental, and fiscal strains, is the region still a safe bet for global investors? On this weekend's episode of the NAB Morning Call, Phil sits down with Panmure Liberum Chief Economist Simon French to unpack the escalating pressures of lingering war, crippling European droughts, and skyrocketing debt. As standard UK inflation holds well above target and 10-year gilt yields hit multi-decade highs, can Prime Minister Andy Burnham deliver on ambitious spending promises around defence, social care, and tax relief without terrifying the bond market? Will a turn toward "buy British" public procurement and North Sea energy approvals offer a genuine structural bridge, or are protectionist measures bound to drag down broader growth? And as extreme weather threatens European food supplies while the US Treasury aggressively intervenes in currency markets, is Europe offering a clever valuation hedge against Wall Street—or simply a slower path through the storm?

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Friday 21st August 2026

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing harder on bringing bond yields down, saying he needs to ensure ‘more orderly trading’. That is taken to mean even more buybacks, with a plan expected today or Monday on the scale and shape of it. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss how the market is taking to it. Oil traders meanwhile have pushed prices higher as the US President promises economic warfare against any country trading with Iran, with China presumably the main focus, but no details yet beyond a social post. Gavin also discusses with Phil yesterday’s softer than expected Australian employment numbers, and they look ahead to today, including the flash PMIs for Europe and the US.

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Thursday 20th August 2026

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The US has announced plans to buyback a greater volume of longer dated bonds. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this is a fairly standard operation that has been used to manage liquidity, but this time it’s to be used on a larger scale with the aim of reducing longer dated yields. There has been a swift response, including a sizeable fall in the US dollar. Meanwhile Moderna shares have spiked as their melanoma treatment passes a significant milestone, and Alphabet raised AU$5.5 billion yesterday, in Australia’s biggest ever corporate issuance. With Australian wages and labour market data, plus UK CPI, Phil and Taylor have plenty to talk about.

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Wednesday 19th August 2026

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Whilst the middle East has been a preoccupation for many of late, the growing concern now shifts to bond yields, which have been steadily rising, with 30-year yields in the US breaking a multi decade high again. Phil puts it to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril that this is not just inflation concerns, given real yields are also rising. Rodrigo talks through the other market concerns, including concerns about governments’ ongoing fiscal commitments. This is getting passed on to equity markets the last few sessions because the rising cost of borrowing will hit those big-tech firms with big borrowing commitments. They a also look at UK data, words from the ECB and look ahead to today’s wages data for Australia. What’s the sweet spot we should be looking for?

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Tuesday 18th August 2026

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It wasn’t a positive start to the week. Equities are lower, bond yields higher, reaching multi -decade highs at the long end in many places, with more evidence that the Iran situation is going to drag on. Activity data from China didn’t help. But it’s not all gloom. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through the latest data from the US, China, Japan and Canada, and to look ahead to today’s UK jobs and wages data.

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Monday 17th August 2026

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There’s a little less optimism around according to Friday’s University of Michigan consumer survey. Retail sales were also a disappointment, so the US finished the week with shares down, bond yields higher and oil prices higher. President Trump told the American people they should be prepared to pay more for gasoline in exchange for control over Iran’s nuclear ambitions but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, that doesn’t seem to be helping him in the opinion polls. This week it’ll be interesting to see how the US performs in the latest PMI measures, contrasted with Europe which seems to be showing a little more hope lately.

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Friday 7th August 2026

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As massive capital expenditure pours into artificial intelligence, the narrative is rapidly shifting from speculative equity gains to a major structural opportunity across debt and credit markets. This week Phil is joined by NAB’s Head of Credit Strategy, Peter Fullerton, to explore why credit markets might offer a far safer, cash-flow-backed alternative to navigating a potential tech equity bubble. Peter explains that while tech hyperscalers are turning free cash flow negative to fund relentless CapEx—causing corporate debt spreads to widen—they still enter debt markets with resilient, high-grade balance sheets that shield bondholders far better than the dot-com era ever did. Closer to home, the focus turns to the physical infrastructure build-out: how Australia's expanding data centre footprint and transmission grid rollouts are creating high-yielding, long-tenor, investment-grade paper backed by tier-one tenants. Are equity markets ignoring the monetization wall ahead, and is local credit the smartest way to extract yield from the AI wave without risking the downside of an equity reckoning?

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Friday 14th August 2026

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US producer price growth came in a little lower than expected, giving hopes that inflation is trending lower. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the market response, with expectations for Fed hikes weakening, even as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock said they might need two hikes before the year is out. Ken also talks with Phil about the speech yesterday by the RBA’s Chris Kent, the UK’s surprise GDP read, and the day ahead, of which US retail sales is the focus.

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Thursday 13th August 2026

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Market action has been very contained overnight, with small moves down in oil, glacial moves for currencies and bonds and share moves largely confined to US infrastructure plays. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss yesterday’s US inflation data which, although rising, was no worse than expected. Hence the muted response. Today the focus will be on US PPI and what the RBA’s Christopher Kwent has to say on a livestreamed fireside chat this morning.

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Wednesday 12th August 2026

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It was, as expected, a fairly hawkish RBA yesterday. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, tweaks to forecasts were relatively minor and they still expect to see inflation back on target in the second half of next year, but Michelle Bullock said she personally believes another hike this year might be necessary. ‘We’ll have to wait and see,’ she said, which seems to be the markets approach to everything right now, including the impacts of the Gulf, which is in stalemate. The impact of that, and AI spending and wage growth will be watched for in today’s US CPI. Will price growth slow? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Tuesday 11th August 2026

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On a session that’s been light on for data the focus has been on the two major undercurrents of the year. First, the Gulf. Oil pushes a little higher as talks have taken a back seat and the US seems prepared to wait it out as their blockade hits the Iranian economy. Shares were down a little as a consortium announced a half trillion-dollar funding package for AI. Phil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if the market response is a signal that some are still worried about a bubble? Today the focus is the NAB Business Survey and the RBA. A hold is likely and markets aren’t fully pricing a hike at all this year, but could that change?

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Monday 10th August 2026

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US payrolls data surprised most on Friday with a weaker than expected number of jobs, but also a fall in the unemployment rate. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether US immigration policies are part of the picture here. Rodrigo also suggests that lower unemployment and weaker wage growth gives the Fed more time to decide on policy changes, with two CPI prints before the next meeting, the first of those this week. Oil meanwhile remains range bound as the future in the Gulf remains uncertain. Iran is demanding more before agreeing to reopening of the Hormuz Strait. This week the RBA meeting is the key focus, inconveniently scheduled for the same day as the NAB Business Survey.

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Friday 7th August 2026

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Australia is aiming to reach Net Zero by 2050. Will we make it? There are heaps of initiatives underway, but do we know whether the cumulative effect is enough for us to hit the target? Phil talks to Toby Phillips, economics director at the Centre for Policy Development, about how the country’s approach is being coordinated. It’s not being coordinated well enough, seems to be Toby’s take – with no government department or agency fully owning the targets and outcomes. Is the Climate Change Authority’s proposed Evidence Platform a step towards a more coordinated approach, offering more current data rather than lagging indicators which might just show we are off-target? The CPD in their submission on the proposed platform said it would need to consider social equity, finance and policy. He talks through the importance of each on this week’s podcast. 

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Friday 7th August 2026

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Fighting has kicked off again in the Middle East, this time the Houthis attacking Saudi supported territory in Yemen, with a significant loss of life. Could this open up the troubles on another front, drawing Saudi Arabia further into the conflict. Meanwhile, a deal on the reopening the Strait still hasn’t happened. The net effect oil is back on the rise, and the Aussie dollar has lost ground. What happens next will be a focus today, along with labour market data for the US and Canada. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton there has been a series of data suggesting strength in the labour market – for example, last night’s weekly jobless claims fell below 200k (for the 4-week average) for the first time since October 2022.

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Thursday 6th August 2026

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Everything's on hold it seems. There have been no big moves in oil prices because, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, there’s still no definitive news on the strait, although an interim agreement between Oman and Iran has been drafted, but will still need US approval. Shares have lost their momentum, although the S&P has squeaked ahead to a new high. SpaceX took a hit as investors responded unfavourably to spending plans. US ISM data was strong, but not as compelling as the upward revisions in European PMI data. Today, Australia trade data is out with another monthly deficit expected, but basically everyone is holding out for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls and a finalised agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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Wednesday 5th August 2026

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The dictionary definition of ‘otherwordly’ is something not from this world, and therefore, not real. Which is probably not what the Palantir CEO meant when he used it to describe their stellar earnings result, which saw their shares skyrocket. Let’s hope peace talks for the Gulf are real, with Scott Bessent saying he expects a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen as soon as today. And oil prices responded. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this latest bout of optimism which has also seen bond yields fall and the Aussie dollar rise. They also look at yesterday’s strong Australian household spending data.

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Tuesday 4th August 2026

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President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as tomorrow. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Sally Auld that means markets only have to wait 24 hours to be disappointed, but the net reaction has been a sharp fall in oil prices and rises in shares. Sally also talks about how the joint currency action on the Yen between the US and Japan marks a new era where allies work together on financial outcomes. In the US a strong ISM report signalled continued strength for the US economy, whilst in Australia we saw house prices fall again and await household spending data today.

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Monday 3rd August 2026

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There were strong moves in the Yen on Friday, for the second day in a row, with the US reportedly joining Japan in moves to shore up the currency. NAB’s Skye Masters says we can expect to hear more on that today, Meanwhile, no moves in the Gulf despite President Trump’s threat to unleash almighty military action. Gulf states convinced him to give peace one more try. With the Strait still largely closed to traffic it makes this morning’s announcement from OPEC+, to increase production by 188k barrels a day, largely academic. And the focus at the backend of this week will be on non-farm payrolls in the US, whilst household spending is the major data release for Australia.

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Friday 31st July 2026

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The government wants one fifth of all the gas that’s extracted in Australia to stay in the country to serve domestic demand, and to sure up our energy security. That’s fair enough isn’t it? It makes little sense that we suffer a shortage of supply if, at the same time, we are exporting large amounts of LNG. Josh Stabler, managing director of Energy Edge, who knows the gas markets well, says it’s not the principle that the industry is objecting to, it’s the approach. Many see that a strict 20 percent of all supplies being foisted on the domestic market will bring prices down and question the viability of domestic supplies and investment in new fields. Josh says the viability of the Longford plant in Victoria is of particular concern. Hear the arguments in a debate that has many moving parts.

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Friday 31st July 2026

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As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discusses with Phil this morning, there is still a lot of market confusion following Kevn Warsh’s press conference yesterday. Are markets worried that inflation could rise and the Fed does little to stop it? Meanwhile US GDP came in softer than expected, but the reverse was the case in Europe. Whilst in Japan the Yen rose, ahead of the BoJ meeting today. Presumably through some engineered currency intervention. And a record jump in Microsoft shares, because they beat on earnings and came below on capex spending, not many tech companies are doing that right now.

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Thursday 30th July 2026

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Kevin Warsh reiterated that the market needs to make its own decision on where the economy is headed. Not follow the Fed’s guidance. At the same time, he said they will consider the markets moves when determining monetary policy. So, who is following who? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the press conference left markets confused. Chip stocks continued to take a battering head of earnings results for Microsoft and Alpha shortly. Oil prices rise as military actions picks up again in the Middle East, with Trump quoted (on Fox News) as saying Iran will “take a beating”. And today the focus is on European and US GDP, and US income and spending data, plus core PCE and, for the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold. That’s enough for one day, surely!

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Wednesday 29th July 2026

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Markets are torn between optimism in the Gulf against fears over valuations of tech. Chipmakers have seen further sizeable falls in their shares, whilst oil is also well down. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the two, which have seen investors lean more to the positive outcomes from lower oil prices, for now. On the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Oman has suggested it is jointly managed with Iran with the payment of voluntary fees, however that would work! The take-outs from Michelle Bullocks speech yesterday are also discussed, plus Australian CPI numbers ae out today and a look ahead to the Fed, overnight tonight.

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Tuesday 28th July 2026

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US tech stocks have taken a hit again for the third straight session, with chipmakers joining software companies in the slide. Other stocks though have been buoyed by the lull in fighting in the Middle East, with three quieter nights as the US ’gives room’ for diplomacy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about how this respite has helped oil lower and driven down bond yields and inflation expectations. It’s a generally quiet day ahead before the week gets busy with central bank decisions and earnings reports.

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Monday 27th July 2026

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Fighting between the US and Iran eased back on Friday after 13 nights of continual bombardment. The US President says talks are ongoing, and NAB’s Sally Auld wonders whether the $100 mark for oil acts as an inducement for both sides to calm things down. The risk, though, is the rise in activity between the Saudis and Houthis. Meanwhile, positive PMI data on Friday. Sally takes us through that ad UK retail sales, all helped, perhaps by the World Cup. There’s a busy week ahead, with the BoE, Fed and BoJ meeting, plus Australian inflation numbers middle of the week.

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Friday 24th July 2026

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As the Brent price climbs back into triple digits and the tensions in the Gulf show no sign of easing, what does that mean for the price of gold. Logic would have dictated that geopolitical unease would strengthen gold as investors look for an inflation-proof safe haven. Instead, the opposite has happened. Prices fell. Why? More significantly why had they risen so much in the last couple of years? And the question everyone has, does it hold steady or does it fall down with the same momentum that we saw fuel its meteoric rise? Phil asks John Reade all those questions. He is senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, who suggests the price is being driven less by geopolitics and more by government debt. Listen in for a fascinating half hour discussion about how the driving forces behind gold prices are changing.

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Friday 24th July 2026

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Oil is back into triple digits this morning as Houthis fire on Saudi vessels in the red Sea and reports of retaliatory action on Iran’s Qeshm Island. At the same time, equities have taken a hit after Alphabet and Telsa earnings. Shares for both are well down because, although revenues are strong, the cash-burn rate in each case is flagged as a major concern, and Tesla had to reduce prices to hold-up sales resulting in much lower margins. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about these two major developments overnight, as well as examining Australia’s employment data yesterday, which showed more people working, but the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Taylor explains what’s happening and what it could mean for the RBA.

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Thursday 23rd July 2026

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Oil continues to rise as diplomacy in the Gulf rapidly disappears. Donald Trump is now threatening retaliatory action each time Iran fires at a vessel in the Hormuz strait, whilst promising Saudi Arabia a deal to enrich uranium on their territory. Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through oil prices and inflation expectations, as well as examining UK CPI numbers, today’s Australian labour market data and what’s expected from the Bank of Canada. Plus, the first of the major tech earnings results after the market close in the US.

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Wednesday 22nd July 2026

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Intelligence suggests that Iran has moved its nuclear capability inside Pickaxe Mountain, which the US President has said they will attack, heavily. That, together with an IEA warning and Saudi ships turning around in the Red Sea has pushed oil higher, back into the nineties, with the potential to go much further. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the market response to this, plus the rebound in equities, particularly for chipmakers, ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings this morning. Plus, yesterday’s employment data, today’s CPI and how the new UK PM is treading a careful path on spending.

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Tuesday 21st July 2026

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Oil prices were on the rise but have eased a little on the hope that maybe a 10-day ceasefire could quell the escalating tensions in the Gulf, after nine nights of open hostilities. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through how markets continue to manage their way through the uncertainty. Higher oil prices have had limited impact on the underlying inflation in Canada, with the softer than expected CPI print giving no reason fro the bank of Canada to do anything except watch and wait. Words from Andy Burnham on his first day as UK PM have pushed bond yields higher, but they retraced a little as he gave the Chancellor role to what many consider a safer pair of hands. New Zealand’s CPI is the main focus in the region today.

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Monday 20th July 2026

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Oil prices were pushed higher as tensions in the Gulf escalate, and with more happening over the weekend there’s every chance oil prices will push higher still. Tech stocks took a hit on Friday with news of the imminent release of Kimi K3, China’s latest agentic open-source AI offering that challenges the supposed superiority of US solutions. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss both developments, and to look ahead to a week dominated by CPI numbers (NZ, UK, Japan, and Canada) and Australian labour market data.

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Friday 17th July 2026

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The petroleum resource rent tax has been around since 1988. It was introduced by the Hawke government as a way to tax the super-profits from petroleum and gas companies extracting offshore resources, without reducing the incentive for new investments. There have been many tweaks to the system over the years, some following the Callaghan Review, commissioned by Scott Morrison in 2017. Now, the government is indicating it wants to see more money from these companies, which would mean more ‘tweaks’ to the system, or perhaps a totally new approach. But that’s easier said than done. Lachlan Vass, research manager at the e61 Institute, joins Phil to talk through the rationale behind the original approach, what’s changed, and why more changes might work, but could also be costly or counterproductive.

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Friday17th July 2026

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It’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases.

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Thursday 16th July 2026

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The Aussie dollar is back in the seventies for now, with a weaker US dollar, while the only answer the US President seems to have for the Iran situation is more military action. Could this challenge the downward trend in inflation? US PPI overnight was weaker than expected, adding to the softer CPI numbers the day before. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s growth, although there were some positive signs for the domestic economy. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss all of this, plus the Bank of Canada decision overnight. They look ahead to US retail sales and UK GDP later on and explain why the pound is one of the strongest upward currency moves this morning.

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Wednesday 15th July 2026

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At his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Kevin Warsh vowed to make today’s elevated inflation ‘a thing of the past’, whilst warning that softer inflation numbers overnight should not be seen as ‘mission accomplished’. NAB’s Skye Masters tells Phil that, even though expectations for a July rate hike have lessened, markets are still pricing in more than one this year. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and US bank earnings, and the President’s reversal on a 20% levy on goods passing through the Strait. But with tensions not easing, oil continues to rise in price. A busy day today as well with data from China, US, Europe and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada. 

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Tuesday 14th July 2026

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President Trump posted overnight that the US would blockade Iranian oil and charge shipping a 20% levy on the value of their cargo to help them through the Strait. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill it is a curious move for someone wanting to see oil price lower – it had the opposite effect, pushing oil up over 9 percent, even though many might discount it as just another Trump negotiating tactic. Tech stocks have taken a hit too. The focus today will be on US CPI, with the Fed’s Christopher Waller sounding increasingly hawkish. Tonight we’ll also get a flush of US bank quarterly earnings. 

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