The Horn

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Reuters journalist Giulia Paravicini to discuss her recent visit to Asmara, Eritrea’s capital. They talk about everyday life in one of the world’s most isolated countries, Giulia’s conversations with Eritrean officials and the future of the aging regime. They explore how Asmara views Ethiopia’s push for sea access and why Eritrean officials fear an attack on the southern port of Assab. They also discuss Eritrea’s alleged support for Ethiopian opposition groups, reports of Eritrean troops entering Tigray during the recent fighting and whether the two neighbours could still slide into outright war. Finally, they examine Eritrea’s regional relationships, particularly its growing ties with Egypt and renewed engagement with Washington, and whether the country can capitalise on the increasing strategic importance of the Red Sea.

For more, check out Giulia’s recent reporting for Reuters “Inside one of the world’s most secretive countries” and “As Iran war smolders, shunned Eritrea looks to come in from the cold”, as well as our last episode “Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War” and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland, to discuss the conflict in northern Ethiopia and whether it could escalate into a wider war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine the calculations behind the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s latest offensive against the federal government, its new alliance with other opposition groups, how Tigrayans view the renewed fighting and where the conflict might be headed. They also explore Eritrea’s alignment with its former rival, the TPLF, and Addis Ababa’s response to reports of Eritrean cross-border incursions. They consider how a wider war might unfold and what role Middle Eastern powers with interests in the region could play. Finally, they unpack the obstacles to diplomacy and what a path out of the conflict might look like.

For more, read our latest alert Pulling Ethiopia and Eritrea Back from War, our Hold Your Fire episode How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?, the last episode with Michael, The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff and our Horn of Africa page.

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Today on The Horn, we are bringing you a bonus episode on the rising risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and whether Ethiopian advances toward the Eritrean border could bring the two countries into direct conflict. They also discuss Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and how it has further fuelled tensions with Eritrea. Turning to the wider region, they assess how Middle Eastern powers’ competing interests could shape their responses to a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the risk of such a conflict becoming entangled with wars in Sudan. Finally, they consider what an urgent diplomatic effort to prevent further escalation would require.

For more, check out our last episode Back to War in Ethiopia? our statement Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Yousra Elbagir, Sky News’s Africa correspondent and winner of the RTS Network Television Journalist of the Year award 2026, to discuss her reporting from inside Sudan’s war and its various front lines. They discuss her recent reporting with the Sudanese navy patrolling the Red Sea. They then discuss the situation in El Obeid, under sustained RSF aerial assault, and how the attacks on the city differ from the RSF’s campaign of starvation and massacres in El Fasher. They talk about civilians’ daily struggle amid the war, and the insecurity and shattered services facing those returning to Khartoum. They also discuss how Yousra weaves in the personal impact of the war into her reporting. Finally, they explore possible ways out of the conflict, how Sudanese on the ground view the war, and what Sudan will need to grapple with when it ends.

For more, you can check out Yousra Elbagir’s reporting on Sky News and our Sudan page.

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Today on The Horn, we are bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s alleged backing, and the threat it poses to the federal government. They also discuss how war-weary Tigrayans view the fighting and how the conflict could unfold. Finally, they explore the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, entanglement with Sudan’s conflict and wider regional rivalries, and whether diplomacy can halt the fighting and prevent a broader regional war.

For more check out our latest statement “Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia” and our Ethiopia page.

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Today we're sharing a bonus episode from the WASSAP podcast, where Alan joins hosts Désirée Custers and Hubert Kinkoh to explore the growing interconnectedness of the Horn of Africa, the Gulf, and the wider Red Sea region.

The conversation traces how Gulf engagement in the Horn has evolved over the past decade, examining the impact of Gulf rivalries, the war in Sudan, tensions in Yemen, and the fallout from the Iran crisis on regional security dynamics. Alan discusses how conflicts across the Red Sea increasingly spill over into the Horn, creating new patterns of competition, cooperation, and strategic alignment.

A central theme of the episode is the relationship between regional geopolitics and state agency. The discussion highlights how actors in the Horn of Africa navigate external rivalries and partnerships while pursuing their own interests and ambitions. Looking ahead, Alan reflects on the challenges facing regional diplomacy and why the growing integration of the Horn, the Gulf, and the wider West Asia region remains one of the most important trends shaping the region's future.

About the WASSAP podcast

The WASSAP: the Africa - West Asia Podcast translates the findings of a three-year research project on West Asian (Gulf)–Sub-Saharan African relations into an accessible, engaging audio format. It explores how economic, political, cultural, religious, and security ties between selected Gulf countries and African partners are evolving and why these shifts matter globally, particularly for Europe.

Hosts of the podcast are Desirée Custers (project manager, CARPO) & Hubert Kinkoh (Senior Researcher, CARPO)

About the WASSAP project

The project explores the multi-dimensional and complex relations between selected Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iran) and four Sub-Saharan countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia). It aims to deconstruct and analyze their economic networks, cultural and religious affiliations, and political and security cooperation. Based on empirical research, the project provides a better understanding of Gulf-African exchange, its challenges and opportunities, as well as its implications for Europe. The project is financed by the Robert Bosch Foundation and will run for three years.

Shownotes:

More information on the host:

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Editor Marco Bussi:

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk and senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to explore why Yemen’s truce is unravelling and what renewed fighting means for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. They examine how stalled Saudi-Houthi negotiations and the U.S.-Israel war on Iran are contributing to the latest escalation, and how Houthi attacks and threats against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait add to pressure on Saudi oil exports. They then discuss emerging Saudi-backed security partnerships, including the Red Sea maritime coalition and the R4 grouping of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan, exploring their implications for the Horn. Finally, they assess stalled Sudan diplomacy, the Houthis’ ties with armed groups in Africa and the risk that Yemen’s conflict could spread across the Red Sea.

For more, check out our latest statement “Closing the New War Front in Yemen” this week’s Hold Your Fire! episode “Will the Houthis Shut Down the Bab al-Mandab Strait?”, Yasmine’s commentary “Can a New Initiative Help the Gulf Region Escape the U.S.-Israel-Iran Trap?” and ourGulf and Arabian PeninsulaandHorn of Africapages.

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This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis, about the possible end of UNSOS, the UN logistics operation supporting African Union troops and Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab and what may come next.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis about the U.S. decision to oppose renewed United Nations logistical support for the 19-year-old African Union military mission in Somalia. Samira explains why UN logistical support has been critical to the AU mission as well as to Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab, and why its loss could leave some areas outside Mogadishu increasingly vulnerable. They also discuss what could happen if no solution or stopgap measure is found, and the 12,000-strong African Union mission ceases to function by the end of the year. They discuss how such a scenario could shift the balance of power on the battlefield between the federal government and Al-Shabaab. They also assess whether Mogadishu’s pursuit of bilateral security partnerships could fill the void left by a weakened or defunct AU mission.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed, former senior officials for the African Union’s mediation team, on how the split between Sudan and South Sudan fifteen years ago led to two failed states, the high-level diplomacy at the time to prevent all-out war, and whether such mediation is still possible today. 

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined again by Abdul Mohammed and Alex de Waal, who worked together for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) for Sudan and South Sudan, to talk about the inside diplomacy surrounding the separation of Sudan and South Sudan, how those dramatic events led to the tragedies in both countries today, and the state of mediation in today’s fragmented world. De Waal is co-author of a new bookThe Sudansthat tells the account of the African Union’s major mediation initiative under President Thabo Mbeki tasked with helping mediate Sudan’s split. Alan, Abdul and Alex discuss some of the untold history of that period, why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today’s fragmented regional geopolitics. 

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Payton Knopf about the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar Federico Donelli, author of the recent book Power Competition in the Red Sea, to assess the shifting geopolitics of the Red Sea region. They trace the region’s long history as an arena for great-power competition before turning to the new scramble that has reshaped it since the turn of the millennium, as Gulf states, Türkiye and other middle powers compete over ports, bases, supply lines and political influence. They examine how the UAE-Saudi rivalry is playing out in the region, how Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access has reshuffled regional alignments, and how Houthi attacks have drawn Israel deeper into Red Sea security. They also consider Europe’s weight as a strategic actor and what future stability could look like in a region shaped by ad hoc coalitions, fluid alignments and non-state actors.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check out Federico’s bookPower Competition in the Red Sea: Testing the Post-Liberal International Orderand ourHorn of Africapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Babatunde Afolabi, former Africa Director at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), now Director of Political Affairs at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, about mediation and conflict resolution in the Horn of Africa. They discuss HD’s discreet work facilitating dialogue between conflict parties, and why the Horn’s history, politics and geopolitics make regional cooperation such a challenge. They turn to Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where the Pretoria agreement that halted two years of devastating war risks unravelling, and to Oromia, where HD- and IGAD-facilitated talks between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army came close to a deal before collapsing. They also discuss Sudan’s hard-to-resolve war, prospects for dialogue with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and why locally grounded dialogue remains essential to ending wars.

For more, check out ourHorn of Africapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar and author Samson Abebe Bezabeh, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, to discuss Djibouti’s domestic politics and shifting role in a turbulent region. They explore Djibouti’s history, its internal political dynamics and uncertainty over the succession to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has ruled the country for nearly three decades. They discuss Djibouti’s role as a “garrison state”, how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access. They also examine Djibouti’s fallout with the UAE over a cancelled port management contract, how that pushed Djibouti closer to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and whether tensions with Somaliland could become a new flashpoint.

For more, check out Samson’s bookDjibouti: A Political Historyand ourHorn of Africapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by journalist and author Nesrine Malik. They take stock of Sudan’s war after more than three years of fighting and consider where the conflict might be headed. They discuss what the wars in Sudan and Gaza reveal about the collapse of the rules-based order, as the U.S. becomes more withdrawn and European capitals hesitate to act decisively. They assess how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting the Horn, and how fuel and fertiliser shortages could affect African economies. Finally, they talk about what might come next for the global order and human rights, the prospect of middle powers uniting in the face of global disorder and “Equator”, the new magazine Malik helped found.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check outEquatorand ourHorn of Africapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, to discuss the deeper implications of Somalia’s new election crisis. They discuss the looming electoral standoff as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term is set to expire on 15 May, and why this latest dispute could prove more fateful than previous election crises. They unpack tensions between Mogadishu and federal member states over constitutional changes, elections and the future of Somalia’s federal system. They look at the looming end of the African Union stabilisation mission and what that will mean for coordinating collective support for the federal government’s war with Al-Shabaab. They discuss the rivalries among external powers and how these risk exacerbating Somalia’s own internal fissures.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly entrenched. They speak about how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting dynamics in Sudan. They also discuss the coherence of the two sides, their rival political projects and the role of outside backing in sustaining the war. They unpack the mounting risks of regional spillover, the state of efforts to broker peace, what might break the stalemate in those talks and the devastating toll three years of war have taken on Sudan. 

For more, check out The Horn episode How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region and our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Hafsa Halawa, an independent political analyst and mediation specialist, to discuss the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in the Horn of Africa. They examine the immediate disruptions to fuel, fertiliser and shipping, and what a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for economies across the region. They discuss how the new Middle East war will impact the intertwined geopolitics between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, including the mounting strategic importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait. Finally, they discuss how the war may impact tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and how it might affect flashpoints across the Horn, including Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Moses Chrispus Okello, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Security Studies, to unpack the common forces driving instability across the Horn of Africa and where the region might be headed. They discuss how today’s crises across the Horn of Africa are rooted primarily in domestic politics, even as they are increasingly shaped and intensified by outside powers competing for influence as the region becomes more entangled in Red Sea geopolitics. They examine Ethiopia’s central place in the region, how its push for sea access is raising tensions with neighbours and the prospects for wider regional realignments. Finally, they explore what stabilisation might require, from reducing proxy competition to rebuilding regional diplomacy.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by H. A. Hellyer, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, to explore what’s behind the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the competing visions of regional order driving it. They examine where tensions have emerged most sharply, including in Yemen and Sudan, and what these flashpoints reveal about each country’s red lines and regional strategy. They look at how, despite the dispute, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are coordinating their response to Iran’s attacks on Gulf states following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. They also discuss what Saudi-UAE détente might look like, whether Riyadh and Abu Dhabi can manage their disagreements, including over Sudan, if they are unable to fully resolve them and how countries in the Horn of Africa can avoid being drawn into the rivalry.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively. 

For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and ourEthiopia-Eritreapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Asher Lubotzky, senior research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, to discuss Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and its interests in the Horn of Africa. They trace the history of Israel’s involvement in the region and its relationships today. They discuss why Israel moved to recognise Somaliland, how the decision links to Red Sea security concerns and the Houthi threat from Yemen, and what both sides hope to gain from closer ties. They also examine whether the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could shape Israel’s role in the Horn, and what Israel hopes to gain from diplomatic relations on the continent. 

For more, check out our recent episode “The Rupture in the Gulf, and Its Fallout”, our Analyst’s Notebook “Gulf Tensions Spill into Somalia as Mogadishu Snubs UAE”, as well as ourHorn of Africapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Kristof Titeca, professor at the Institute of Development Policy at the University of Antwerp, to talk about Uganda’s post-election landscape and the question of who might succeed President Yoweri Museveni after nearly four decades in power. They trace Museveni’s rise and unpack how he stabilised Uganda and managed to sustain his rule through patronage, coercion and increasingly personalised decision-making. They examine Uganda’s murky succession politics and Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is widely seen as the heir apparent and whose rapid military rise and provocative social media interventions have unsettled parts of the establishment. They also weigh various scenarios for a contested succession, whether Uganda’s state consolidation will hold after Museveni leaves, and the impact for the wider region.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Omar Mahmood and Shewit Woldemichael. He first speaks with Yasmine about what is behind the new public rupture between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen, how this links to diverging strategies and rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, and the risk of a new Gulf crisis. Alan then turns to Omar and Shewit to discuss spillover into Somalia, including the fallout around Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, and into Sudan, where Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing sides in the war, and what further polarisation and external competition could mean for an already tumultuous Horn of Africa.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to unpack the escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine how these dynamics are intertwined with the fragmenting political and security situation in Tigray, Ethiopia’s push for sea access, and Eritrea’s deep-seated existential security concerns. They examine why, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric, war has not yet broken out, and what factors continue to restrain both sides. They also look at whether regional polarisation and global shifts could tip the balance and whether any credible options remain to de-escalate the standoff.

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This week on The Horn, we post a recent discussion between Crisis Group’s CEO and President, Comfort Ero, and leading expert Alex de Waal, about ongoing efforts to bring Sudan’s war to an end.

In this bonus episode of The Horn, Alan brings listeners a special episode from a panel on Sudan’s war hosted by Crisis Group earlier this month at the Qatar Mediation Forum, a sideline event at the Doha Forum. The discussion is moderated by Yasmine Farouk, Crisis Group’s Gulf Director, and features Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s President and CEO, alongside Alex de Waal, a leading expert on Sudan. They examine why Sudan’s war is so hard to stop, looking at repeated past failures to secure a ceasefire. They discuss how state authority has eroded across large swathes of the country, what the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ model of control looks like and how the war has become an internationalised proxy struggle shaped by Gulf, regional and global interests. They also debate the merits and limits of the current mediation architecture, including with formats like the Quad. They explore the risks of transactional engagement, the dilemmas around arms flows and embargo proposals, and the difficulty of making peace between fractious coalitions. Finally, they reflect on the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan and highlight Sudanese-led resilience efforts, from emergency response rooms to local market and food-production adaptations, as essential to sustaining lives even as the politics remain deadlocked.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Heiko Nitzschke, Germany’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, to discuss whether and how Europe needs to adapt its approach towards the Horn of Africa. While Europe used to act in relative sync with the U.S. in Africa, this is increasingly less the case. Meanwhile, numerous other powers, mostly from the Middle East, are pursuing their own objectives. Amid all this, how does Europe avoid going it alone in the Horn of Africa region? And, amid these shifts, is Europe rethinking longstanding policy ideas around development, multilateralism and mediation?

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check out ourHorn of Africapage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Julia Steers, investigations editor at Lighthouse Reports, about the large-scale atrocities that took place in Darfur’s El Fasher after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured the city from Sudan’s army last month. They retrace how the RSF’s seizure of El Fasher unfolded after months of siege and discuss what investigators have uncovered about the mass killings and widespread abuses that followed. They examine the scale and brutality of the attacks on civilians – many of them documented by the RSF themselves – and the ethnic pattern of the killings. They also explore the RSF’s motivations for the apparent coordinated and systematic mass killing, and how the group has responded to the reporting on these atrocities.

For more, check out Lighthouse Reports’ publication “The Killing Fields of Al Fashir”, co-published with Sky News and Sudan War Monitor, our Hold Your Fire! episode “What Does the RSF’s Seizure of El Fasher Mean for Sudan’s War?” and ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Timur Söylemez, former ambassador and former head of the mediation unit at Türkiye’s foreign ministry, to discuss the evolving landscape of conflict mediation and Ankara’s approach in the Horn of Africa and beyond. They unpack the headwinds facing mediators today amid proliferating conflicts, shrinking space for comprehensive peace deals and rising scepticism toward multilateral bodies. They explore how Türkiye chooses where to engage, how its approach differs from that of the U.S., EU and Gulf states, and favouring results over process. They also examine Türkiye’s efforts in the Horn, including its mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia, and its exploration of peace talks on Sudan, as well as how Ankara cooperates with other mediators from the U.S., Europe and the Gulf.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check out ourTürkiyeandHorn of Africapages.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the fall of El Fasher in Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this update episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn director Alan Boswell about the paramilitary RSF capturing North Dafur’s capital El Fasher, the reports of horrific violence in the city and the implications for the trajectory of Sudan’s war. They discuss how the RSF managed to take control of the city after a siege of more than a year and the situation in El Fasher now amid a worsening humanitarian crisis and reports of mass killings of civilians. They discuss the de facto partition of Sudan with the RSF now controlling most of western Sudan and the army holding the capital Khartoum and the east. They also explore whether the capture of El Fasher may derail U.S.-led efforts to broker a ceasefire.

For more, check out our recent episodeCan a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War?And ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss the trial of South Sudan’s first vice president and former rebel leader Riek Machar. They trace Machar’s rise and how he became a central, polarising figure in South Sudanese politics. They unpack the charges against Machar over his alleged role in a March 2025 attack on an army base in Nasir. They discuss the timing of the proceedings as South Sudanese elite jockey over the eventual succession of President Salva Kiir amid mounting speculation over his health. They also explore what to expect from the trial, what its outcome could mean for the risk of deepening violence and for the 2018 peace deal, and whether there remains a viable path to dialogue among South Sudan’s elites to ease tensions.

For more, check out our Analyst’s Notebook “Criminal Charges against South Sudan’s Vice President Threaten New Twist in Conflict”, our recent episode “As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises”, and our briefing “Succession Fever Deepens South Sudan’s Malaise”.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael, Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and Gulf & Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk about the latest shifts in Sudan’s war and recent diplomatic efforts. They chart recent battlefield developments, including the situation in El Fasher in northern Darfur, where fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is particularly intense amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They examine how the balance of power between the warring parties is evolving, the interests of outside actors supplying arms, and the RSF’s push to establish a parallel government. They also look at diplomatic efforts to end the war, including the recent announcement by the U.S., Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, known as the Quad, outlining a roadmap for peace in Sudan, how the RSF and the Sudanese army are responding, and what the initiative can realistically achieve.

For more, check out our recent Q&A “All Eyes on the Quad: How the U.S. and Its Partners Can Push for Peace in Sudan”, Alan’s Foreign Affairs piece “Sudan’s War Is the Shape of Things to Come” and our Sudan page. 

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director, Murithi Mutiga, to discuss the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam. They trace the project’s development during a tumultuous period for the region and explore its economic and political significance for Ethiopia. They examine why the project has raised tensions with the downstream Nile countries, Egypt and Sudan, why mediation efforts failed before completion, and to what extent concerns about GERD are justified. Finally, they discuss whether the dam can deliver the economic transformation Ethiopia hopes for, what it would take for Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to avert a future crisis, and how the dispute over the dam could still drive regional tensions for years to come.

For more, check out ourEthiopiaandHorn of Africapages.

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In this episode of The Horn, marking Crisis Group’s 30th anniversary, Alan Boswell speaks with president & CEO Comfort Ero about how the landscape of peacemaking has evolved since the organisation’s founding in 1995. They trace how the environment for conflict resolution has shifted from the aftermath of the war in Bosnia to today’s challenges, amid a second Trump presidency and an unravelling global order. They then turn to Africa, examining how leaders on the continent perceive the erosion of Western dominance and the obstacles facing efforts to resolve regional conflicts. They also discuss how the war in Sudan illustrates the difficulties of peacemaking amid a fragmenting world. Finally, they discuss the future of peacemaking amid these headwinds. 

For more, check out the last The Horn Episode with Comfort “Africa in a World between Orders” as well as ourAfricaandMultilateral Diplomacypages. 

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This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell sits down with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis Insights, and Fred Bauma, human rights advocate and executive secretary at the Ebuteli research institute in Kinshasa, to unpack the uncertain future of peacekeeping operations across the African continent. Once a signature response to conflict, large multilateral missions face growing skepticism from global powers like China, Russia, and the U.S., as well as from the very states they aim to protect. The guests reflect on the frustration shared by local populations, host governments and international donors as peacekeeping missions struggle to deliver real security and political progress. They discuss why some global actors are still keen on trying to make peacekeeping fit for purpose, despite these challenges. Finally, they assess what the future of foreign deployments and missions in fragile countries in Africa might look like, given the decline of multilateralism. 

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check out Crisis Group CEO Comfort Ero’s analyst’s notebook entry, “The Future of UN Peacekeeping Cannot Be Business as Usual” and ourMultilateral Diplomacypage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by analyst and researcher Sarra Majdoub to take a closer look at Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their evolving military and political objectives. They discuss the RSF’s recent loss of control in Khartoum to the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the group’s strategic pivot toward consolidating power in Darfur and the Kordofan regions even as those areas suffer from a deepening humanitarian crisis. They unpack the RSF’s emerging new political strategy, including their recent alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and efforts to establish a parallel government with allied armed groups. They also discuss the RSF’s new long-range drone capabilities and why the group decided to escalate the conflict by launching strikes into eastern Sudan, including on Port Sudan. Finally, they explore whether the RSF is preparing for a lengthy war and protracted stalemate, if the group is positioning for a negotiated settlement to the war, or both. 

For more, check out our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, our recent analyst’s notebook entries: “Capture of Tri-border Area Marks Another Twist in Sudan’s Civil War”, “Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan’s War Enters Third Year”, “London Conference Puts Paralysed Sudan Peace Efforts on Display” and ourSudanpage.

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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on the DR Congo-Rwanda peace deal and U.S. engagement in Africa from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looking at diplomacy in other hotspots. They also discuss Sudan’s civil war and whether Trump’s illiberal dealmaking might offer a way out. They examine simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what renewed war between them would mean for an already tumultuous region. Finally, they look at how revisionist leaders in Africa may be emboldened by a broader global trend of achieving goals through force, how Africans view Trump’s second term policy so far and how it compares to Chinese engagement in Africa. 

For more, check out our latest Q&A, “The DR Congo-Rwanda Deal: Now Comes the Hard Part”, The Horn podcast episode “The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo” and ourAfricapage.

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This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Guleid Ahmed Jama, a Hargeisa-based lawyer and political commentator, to discuss Somaliland’s push for recognition. They revisit Somaliland’s decision to declare independence from Somalia in 1991 and trace how Hargeisa’s relations with Mogadishu have evolved since then. They discuss Somaliland’s memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia in 2024 – reportedly granting Ethiopia port access in exchange for potential recognition – which stirred domestic debate and regional tensions, and explore how Somaliland’s new administration has been managing relations with both Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. They explore prospects of greater U.S. engagement under the Trump administration, potentially linked to military access, and discuss how Hargeisa’s ties with global powers and regional actors might evolve as Somaliland continues to assert itself internationally.

For more, check out Crisis Group’s recent analyses,“Somaliland’s Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains”and“The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal”.

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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Daniel Akech, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, about the deepening political crisis in South Sudan and looming questions about President Salva Kiir’s succession. They trace Kiir’s rise from military commander to president following South Sudan’s independence in 2011 and the breakup of the fragile coalition that had led the country to secession from Sudan, culminating in a devastating civil war in 2013. They examine how Kiir might manage the succession amid growing speculation that his health is declining. They look at Kiir’s recent series of government shakeups that have sidelined presidential contenders, including Vice President Riek Machar, co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also discuss the rapid ascent of Benjamin Bol Mel, a wealthy businessman and increasingly influential but divisive figure who is widely seen as Kiir’s potential successor, though he lacks popular support. Finally, they explore how regional actors might respond as South Sudan’s political crisis deepens and the risk of renewed civil war looms.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out the Hold Your Fire! episode “South Sudan on the Brink of Another War” and Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our South Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.

For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and ourDR Congocountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Abdul Mohammed, who has worked on Sudan for many years, including as a senior official in the UN and African Union. They discuss the risks of a de facto partition of the country as both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces look to solidify their respective zones of control. They examine why previous peace initiatives have faltered, the expanding role of external powers in the conflict, and key takeaways from last week’s London conference, which brought together Western, Arab, and African countries. They consider what a multilateral effort to end the war might entail and whether the African Union is positioned to take the lead. Finally, they discuss whether there is still space for Sudan’s civilian actors in future mediation efforts and what it would take to piece the country back together after two years of war.

For more, check out our analyst notebook entries “London Conference Puts Paralysed Sudan Peace Efforts on Display” and “Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan’s War Enters Third Year” as well as our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, as well as ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sudanese civil society activist and political commentator Dallia Mohamed Abdelmoniem. They discuss her flight from Khartoum when war broke out between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces two years ago, and the devastation it brought to her neighbourhood and the city. They discuss the widespread destruction of the war on Sudan and its social fabric, and the risk of the conflict continuing to escalate, including beyond Sudan’s borders. They also explore how to end the war, the risks of the country’s partition and why so many Sudanese still reject the idea of peace talks. They also discuss where hope lies for Sudan’s future.

For more, check out our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, as well as our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Annette Weber, the European Union’s Special Representative for the Horn of Africa. They discuss how the first months of Donald Trump’s presidency have affected the region and whether the EU and other regional actors can step in to fill the humanitarian aid gap created by cuts in U.S. funding. They explore why the region appears to face so many deteriorating crises at once. They examine the prospects for diplomacy to address both the longstanding and emerging crises across the region, including the war in Sudan, the deepening political crisis in South Sudan that threatens to escalate into full-scale war, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the recent Al-Shabaab offensive in Somalia. They also discuss Europe’s response to the security crisis in the Red Sea. Finally, with the West in crisis, they consider how the EU diplomacy in the region might adapt.

For more, check out recent publications “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”,

“Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Closer to War amid Tigray Upheaval” and “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War” as well as our Horn of Africa regional page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on South Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal. 

For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa to discuss Somalia’s uncertain new global context with the dawn of a new Trump administration. They first unpack the recent Ankara declaration between Somalia and Ethiopia and the failure to find funding for the new African Union mission in Somalia. They then explore what the Trump administration might do on Somalia, the potential for a major rupture in Washington’s support for Somalia’s federal government, and what this could mean for European, Turkish and Arab support for Somalia’s government. They also assess new offensives from Al-Shabaab and how the group is trying to posture itself amid all these shifts. 

For more, check out the last episodes of The Horn on SomaliaWhat to Expect from the New AU Mission in SomaliaandSomalia amid a Swirl of Regional Tensionsas well as ourSomaliacountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to discuss the risk of renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid rising regional tensions and a deepening political crisis in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray war, but notably excluded Eritrea. They delve into the rupture of Tigray’s political leadership and how growing instability in the region has fuelled tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They also discuss prospects for de-escalation to prevent another devastating war in the Horn of Africa.

For more, check out the latest The Horn episodes with Michael: End of One War, Start of Another in Ethiopia and Eritrea’s Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia’s Tigray as well as our Horn of Africa regional page. 

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive Officer of ODI Global, to discuss the Trump administration’s sudden halting of most foreign aid amid a trend of broader cuts to foreign aid by Western governments. They examine whether the abrupt funding freeze for USAID is collapsing aid operations on the ground, and why that matters. They also talk about why other Western donor countries are reducing aid budgets as well. They further discuss longstanding critiques of the aid industry, including from recipient countries, and why the system proved resistant to such reforms. They discuss the type of aid given by “non-traditional” non-Western donors and whether such differing approaches to aid can be bridged. Finally, they consider if an international aid system can be rebuilt and what will be the consequences if it is not. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our The Horn episode “Trump’s Aid Cuts and What Africa Should Expect Next” and our latest Q&A “Amid Aid Cuts, a Renewed U.S. Policy Increases Health Risks for Women and Girls in Conflict Areas”.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!,Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.

For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Joshua Meservey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s Africa policy. They examine the Trump administration’s recent freeze on foreign aid, its push to abolish the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and whether the administration may restore some humanitarian assistance. They unpack what else the continent might expect from Trump’s second term, including recent tensions with South Africa over land expropriation laws and competition with China over mineral supply chains. They also assess how the Trump administration might approach the conflict in Sudan, U.S. policy towards Somalia and Somaliland, the crisis in the Great Lakes, and the growing role of Middle East powers in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Hold Your Fire! podcast episode Trump in Africa, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Africa program page. 

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Nazanine Moshiri is joined by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s Senior Advisor to the African Union (AU), to talk about the upcoming elections for the AU Commission Chairperson. They unpack the chair’s mandate, the challenges faced by the current officeholder, Moussa Faki Mahamat, and his track record. With the race heating up, they examine the three leading candidates – Mahmoud Ali Yusuf (Djibouti), Raila Odinga (Kenya), and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) – exploring their leadership styles and how each could shape the AU’s future. The conversation delves into the AU’s struggles in resolving conflicts across Africa, particularly in the Horn, Sudan, and Somalia, and how the next chair could strengthen its peace efforts. They also discuss the AU’s funding challenges as Western donors shift priorities and how the organisation can strengthen its role on the global stage.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourAfrica Unionpage

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Omar Mahmood is joined by Paul Williams, professor of international relations at George Washington University, to discuss the newly authorised African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). They assess the record of past AU-led missions in Somalia and review the AU’s role in supporting state-building efforts in the country. They explore how Al-Shabaab’s enduring threat and regional political dynamics have influenced the latest mission’s scope and objectives. They point out the operational, financial and political hurdles facing AUSSOM, looking at how the new mission can succeed where its predecessors fell short. They also reflect on the future of peace operations in Africa more broadly.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out Paul’s book “Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the Africa Union Mission”,UNSC Resolution 2568 (2021)on the reform of AMISOM, our latest report “Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia” and ourHorn of Africaproject page.

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson speaks with Kwesi Sansculotte-Greenidge, former Senior Conflict and Access Advisor at the World Food Programme, and Abdalla Hussein, operational manager at Médecins Sans Frontières. They unpack the concept of humanitarian diplomacy and the challenges aid organisations face in negotiating access to civilians in conflict-affected areas, including in Sudan. They talk about the difficulties of coordinating efforts among aid organisations and the obstacles they encounter in getting conflict parties to uphold humanitarian principles amid competing interests and bureaucratic hurdles. They discuss how mediation efforts to end conflicts are often linked with negotiations for aid access and why it could make sense to separate the two tracks in cases like Sudan. They also discuss how aid organisations navigate a shifting global order and the rising influence of middle powers in conflict areas.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourHorn of Africaprogram page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on what a second Trump administration means for U.S.-Africa policy from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump administration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for influencing Washington. They look at what Trump’s presidency could mean for hotspots in Africa, including Somalia, Sudan, the DR Congo and the Sahel, as well as the future of UN peacekeeping missions on the continent. Finally, they discuss the risk that some African states may fragment, asking whether stronger, more unified leadership might help the continent navigate the volatile world order. 

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa program page. 

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In this episode of The Horn,guest host Murithi Mutiga is joined by Hanna Tetteh, former UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa. They discuss the challenges of peacemaking in Africa amid regional conflicts and a shifting global order. They talk about the state of the African Union and how it can become more effective in resolving conflicts across the continent. They discuss why mediation efforts have yielded little success in Sudan and ways to strengthen diplomatic initiatives to end the conflict. They discuss ECOWAS as a model for regional integration and how the West African bloc can preserve unity amid recent tensions with Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. They touch on the implications of a second Trump presidency on UN funding and U.S.-Africa policy. They also reflect on Ghana’s successful transition from military rule to a stable democracy. 

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Hold Your Fire! podcast episodeTrump in Africa, and ourAfricaprogram page.

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Nazanine Moshiri leads a roundtable discussion with researcher and journalist Peter Schwartzstein and Karabo Mokgonyana, renewable energy campaigner at Power Shift Africa, to talk about what’s at stake for Africa at the COP29 climate summit in Baku. They discuss how a heavy debt burden has limited climate action in many African countries and the case for bringing debt relief to the table at COP. They unpack how climate change can fuel drivers of conflict and why donor countries should prioritise climate financing in conflict-afflicted countries. They also discuss how African leaders can build a united front to raise issues like climate security and climate financing at COP29 and beyond.

For more, check out Peter’s bookThe Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence, Karobo’s articleWithout debt relief, Africa is fighting climate change with its hands tiedand ourClimate, Environment and Conflictpage.

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson is joined by BBC journalist Mohanad Hashim, to talk about his recent trip to Omdurman and other war-torn cities in Sudan, and the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in the country as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces rages on. They discuss life in the country’s urban areas amid daily bombardments, food shortages, and atrocities reportedly committed by both warring parties. They unpack why international media coverage of the war in Sudan has been limited despite the conflict’s devastating humanitarian toll. They talk about how people living in Sudan perceive the warring parties and their hopes for the country’s political future. They also examine the lacklustre international response to the conflict, the involvement of external actors in the war and how that affects prospects for peace.

For more, you can watch Mohanad’s recent BBC mini-documentary ‘They ransacked my home and left my town in ruins’, our latest Crisis Watchentry, and ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined, to discuss how debt and the high cost of debt servicing are affecting economies in Africa. They unpack the history of African debt, the increased role of private lenders and non-Western countries like China on the continent in recent years and how this diversification of creditors might complicate future debt relief efforts. They examine how reforms of the global financial system along with more coordination among African countries could reduce the debt burden and improve their access to financing. They also assess what options African leaders have to tackle the challenges posed by high debt and debt servicing absent larger structural changes to the global financial system. 

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more you can read Hannah’s Foreign Policy pieceAfrican Lending Needs a Better World Bank, her opinion article in African BusinessWhy are some creditors more preferred than others?and ourAfricaregional page.

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In the first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Eastern Africa analyst Omar Mahmood to discuss the escalating regional tensions involving Somalia, Egypt and Ethiopia, the uncertain future of the stabilisation mission ATMIS, which supports Mogadishu in its fight against Al-Shabaab and the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia. They unpack the worsening relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia’s bid for sea access through Somaliland and the diplomatic efforts under way to defuse the tensions. They discuss Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt and its regional implications. They talk about a possible follow-on mission to ATMIS, which is set to end by December this year, Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia and Egypt’s increasing security assistance to the country amid regional rivalries. They also discuss the growing significance of the Somali branch of the Islamic State for the group’s global operations, recent developments in Mogadishu’s fight against Al-Shabaab and whether more diplomacy could help to improve relations between Somalia and its neighbours. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our recent briefing,The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threatand ourSomaliacountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with writer and political analyst Nanjala Nyabola about the wave of nationwide protests that have swept through Kenya in recent weeks and prospects for the country and the region. They unpack the political and economic factors driving discontent among young people in Kenya, the makeup of the demonstrators and social media’s role in galvanising the protests. They discuss what options Kenya’s President William Ruto has to address the country’s economic woes and its spiralling debt crisis. They also talk about whether demonstrations might spread to other African countries facing structural challenges similar to Kenya’s and what lessons can be learned from how protest movements have played out in Sudan and elsewhere in the region.

For more, check out Nanjala’s article inThe Guardian The world is scrambling to understand Kenya’s historic protests – this is what too many are missing, her bookDigital Democracy, Analogue Politics: How the Internet Era is Transforming Politics in Kenyaand our recent Q&AWhat is Behind Kenya’s Protest Movement?

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Alex de Waal, a leading scholar on famines as well as on Sudan and the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, to talk about the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan as the war between Sudan's Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is driving millions to starvation. They assess the scale of the hunger crisis in Sudan and how close the country is to full-blown famine. They talk about the factors driving starvation in the country and how the belligerents are using hunger as a weapon of war. They also discuss how aid access throughout the country can be restored, whether outside actors, including the U.S. and the UN, can mount a large-scale emergency response and what can be done to improve the regional and international efforts to resolve the conflict.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, you can read Alex’s article in Foreign AffairsSudan’s Manmade Famine, our briefingHalting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudan’s El Fasherand ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s widening fiscal crisis, with the war in neighbouring Sudan cutting the government off from vital oil revenue, and what that could mean for the country’s political future. They unpack why elections, originally scheduled for later this year, are likely to be postponed again as the country struggles to build up a functioning voting infrastructure. They talk about mediation efforts under way in Kenya between the government and exiled opposition groups, the motivations of the participants and whether the talks can lead to a substantive agreement. They also assess whether South Sudan is headed for wider political turmoil as the government’s main source of revenue remains disrupted.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statementSouth Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports, last year’s episode with EdmundIt’s Time to Start Talking About Elections in South Sudanand ourSouth Sudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director Richard Moncrieff about the latest from DR Congo as violence in eastern North Kivu continues to escalate. They unpack the recent attack by a group of armed men in Kinshasa, which has been framed as a coup by the government. They discuss the escalating violence in eastern DR Congo as fighting between M23 rebels and government forces moves closer to the regional capital Goma. They talk about the shifting of regional alliances and Kinshasa’s turn to its southern African allies. They assess the implications of the M23 securing valuable mining sites in the region and Rwanda’s involvement in the trade of minerals originating from the DRC. They also talk about where the diplomatic efforts to end the conflict might be headed.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our previous podcast episodes Great Lakes Politics and the Fight for the Eastern DR Congo and The Boiling Regional Crisis in Eastern Congo as well as our DR Congo country page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan and Gaza from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell, Shewit Woldemichael, Rami Dajani and Rob Blecher about the latest from Sudan’s western Darfur region and from Gaza. Richard first talks to Alan and Shewit about the worsening violence in North Darfur. As the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces encircle the city of al-Fashar, the last Darfuri capital held by the Sudanese army, and both sides build up forces, they talk about the implications of an all-out battle for the city. They also discuss the legacy of the 2020 Juba peace agreement and why some Darfuri former rebels have now chosen to fight alongside the Sudanese army against the RSF. Richard then talks to Rami and Rob about Israel’s incursion this past week into Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah. They discuss prospects for talks over a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Cairo, the views of both Hamas and the Israeli government on what such a deal should entail and Israeli politics around the Rafah offensive. They also talk about the difficulties of aid delivery and famine risks in both Sudan and Gaza. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement Sudan: A Year of War and our report Stopping Famine in Gaza.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statementSudan: A Year of Warand ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Tom Perriello, recently appointed U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, about the obstacles to peace in Sudan after a year of fighting and Washington’s plans to revitalise diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. They unpack the challenging task of bringing the leaders of the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table as the conflict continues to proliferate throughout the country amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They discuss prospects for aligning the interests of outside actors involved in the fighting, notably Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, what a concerted effort to end the conflict could look like as well as potential sticking points to a peace deal. They also talk about how the country could return to a political process once the fighting has subsided.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent statementSudan: A Year of Warand ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director, about Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad as the country heads for elections in May. They discuss Déby’s ascendance to power after the death of his father in 2021 and his initial promises for democratic transition and national dialogue. They assess the fallout of the war in Sudan in Chad and how Déby’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces has been received among his support base. They talk about the crackdowns on the Chadian opposition, the killing of Déby’s main political rival Yaya Dillo in February and what to expect in the elections next month. They also discuss Déby’s relations with other military leaders in the Sahel and his seeming turn to Moscow and other regional powers for security partnerships as relations with its traditional Western backers, notably France, are turning increasingly fraught.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourChadcountry page.

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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alsanosi Adam, an active member of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), a youth-led grassroots network providing aid and basic services for civilians in many areas across the country, especially in the capital Khartoum area, about Sudan’s humanitarian crisis after almost a year of war. They talk about the harsh living conditions in Sudan’s urban areas and the difficulties civilians face in accessing food and medicine throughout the country. They unpack how the local responder networks operate in the areas controlled by the two warring parties and their challenging task of reaching civilians in need. They discuss the looming famine and the potential acceleration of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan should aid access remain restricted. They talk about how the ERRs ensure financial transparency and accountability in their operations. They also discuss what role Sudan’s grassroots networks should play in a future peace process.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out last year’s episode with Maryam Elfaki,The Future of Sudan’s Resistance Committeesand ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Diego Da Rin, Crisis Group’s Haiti expert,and Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Director, about the latest surge in gang violence in Haiti, which has put the state on the brink of collapse, and the potential of an international mission led by Kenya to restore security. They talk about the deep crisis in Haiti and why gangs in the country are trying to overthrow Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s government. They talk about Henry’s visit to Kenya, what’s behind Nairobi’s decision to lead an international mission to Haiti and why it has faced opposition in Kenya’s courts. They assess the political risks involved for Nairobi in sending police forces to Haiti and how gangs in the country might react to such a deployment. They also discuss fast-moving events, whether Henry is now stranded abroad, and whether a foreign deployment still looks feasible.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefingHaiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold?and ourHaiticountry page

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior advisor to the AU, about the highlights of the 2024 AU Summit, the continental body’s priorities for the year ahead and whether the annual summit moved the needle on addressing many of the continent’s major crises and conflicts. They break down the main files discussed at this year’s summit, particularly the worsening security crisis in eastern Congo, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over sea access and the string of coups in West Africa. They also discuss the AU’s lacklustre response to the war in Sudan and whether the body can take a more tangible role in resolving the conflict in the year ahead. They examine the AU’s push for a larger role on the global stage and deepening fault lines between AU members and Western countries, including over the war in Gaza. They also discuss the election of a new AU chair and the upcoming race for a new chair of the AU Commission. They also discuss whether African leaders think the AU is suffering an institutional crisis. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefingEight Priorities for the African Union in 2024and ourAfrican Union & Regional Bodiespage.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on The Horn from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, to discuss the fallout of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding for Somalia and the region. They talk about Hargeisa’s motivations for the port deal with Addis Ababa and Mogadishu’s response. They look at what deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could mean for the offensive against Al Shabaab as well as regional stability generally. They examine the flurry of diplomacy by Somalia aimed at rallying opposition to the deal. They also discuss whether Ethiopia could make a pitch for greater sea access that would benefit both Somalia and Somaliland.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourHorn of Africaregional page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Christopher Clapham, Ethiopia expert and professor emeritus at the University of Cambridge. They unpack the context of Ethiopia’s major new quest for sea access, the regional tensions created by this public demand, and the tidal waves from the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that is fiercely opposed by Somalia and others. They also discuss the dire internal situation inside Ethiopia and whether the proliferating crises inside the country could continue to escalate. They also discuss the historic and current involvement of external actors in the region, including Gulf states.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefingEthiopia’s Ominous New War in Amharaand ourEthiopiacountry page. 

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In this Special Episode of The Horn, we are bringing you a panel discussion on Sudan moderated by Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Comfort Ero, at the 2023 Doha Forum. Comfort is joined by U.S. Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, UN Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Hanna Tetteh, founding director of the Sudan-focused think tank Confluence Advisory, Kholood Khair and Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga. They assess the latest diplomatic push to try and get a ceasefire in Sudan, ways to better coordinate mediation efforts and the difficult task of bringing the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table. They discuss the investments needed to better protect civilians in Sudan and the state of civilian efforts to unify against the war. They also highlight how a prolonged war in Sudan risks further destabilising an already fragile region.

Find the link to the video recording of the full panelhere.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourHorn of Africapage, ourSudanpage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Alexander Rondos, a former diplomat and a senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, a Sudan-focused think tank, and Abdul Mohammed, who has served in senior positions for the United Nations and the African Union, to discuss the state of diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. They talk about the war in Sudan and the risk of conflicts and crises proliferating in the Horn, absent coherent diplomatic initiatives. They discuss the rising competition among regional and international powers to head diplomacy in Sudan and elsewhere, as well as the diminished role of the U.S. They also look at how the increasing strategic importance of the Red Sea is fuelling tensions between regional powers.

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourHorn of Africapage and ourSudanpage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Saliem Fakir, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Robert Muthami, a member of Kenya’s delegation to previous COPs, and Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Climate, Environment and Conflict in Africa to talk about Africa’s role at this year’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai. They discuss Africa’s negotiating position and priorities at this year’s climate summit, including climate financing. They look at the importance for African negotiators to speak with one voice. They explain why this year’s focus on peace and conflict is new for COP and important for African countries. 

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourCOP28: A Special Seriespage and ourClimate, Environment and Conflictpage.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, to discuss the landscape in Ethiopia one year after the peace deal in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders have evolved since the signing of a peace deal in Pretoria last year and the many challenges Tigray still faces today. They discuss how Abiy's wartime alliance with Eritrea and the Amhara elite broke down, leading to a new war in the Amhara region and rising tensions with Ethiopia. They also look at whether Addis Ababa’s recent bid for access to the Red Sea could raise the risks of a regional escalation.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefingEthiopia's Ominous New War in Amharaand ourEthiopiacountry page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. 

For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa,and Sarah Harrison, Crisis Group’s Senior U.S. Analyst, about Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and the U.S. strategy toward the country. Alan and Omar update listeners on the stalling offensive, supported by clan militias and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). They also discuss the postponed withdrawal of ATMIS soldiers and whether the Somali government will be able to take over from the African Union forces by the end of 2024. Alan and Sarah evaluate successive U.S. administrations' approaches to Somalia as part of the Global War on Terrorism. They discuss how the Biden administration decided to send U.S. troops back to Somalia despite Biden's pledge to end the country's forever wars and whether U.S. strategy remains fit for purpose. Omar also discusses how Somalis view U.S. support. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our reportOut of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy, our briefingSustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaaband ourSomaliacountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Dr Suliman Baldo, Executive Director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, about the dire state of Sudan six months into the war between Sudan’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and whether Sudan has already collapsed. They assess the current military dynamics across the country and the internal dynamics within both the RSF and the Sudanese armed forces, as well as why there has been no serious progress towards a ceasefire. They talk about how both parties’ mobilisation of different ethnic groups amplifies further social tensions among the population. They also discuss the involvement of outside actors in the conflict and why existing peace efforts have failed to make any meaningful progress.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourSudancountry page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso, founder of Amani Africa, Paul-Simon Handy of the Institute for Security Studies, and Crisis Group expert Liesl Louw-Vaudran to discuss the state of peace and security in Africa. They assess the African Union’s response to the recent string of coups in West Africa and whether it still has the ability to deter military takeovers. They also talk about how the conflict in Sudan has tested the AU’s peace and security architecture and how competition between the AU and different regional bodies has hampered mediation efforts. Finally, they discuss what shape peacekeeping in Africa might take in the future and whether regional initiatives can fill the vacuum left by the departure of UN missions.

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&AWhat Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?, our previous podcast episodes on the withLieslandSolomonand ourAfricaprogram page.

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In this first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan Boswell talks with Annette Weber, EU special representative for the Horn of Africa, to discuss diplomacy and peacemaking in the region. They talk at length about the conflict in Sudan, the trajectory of regional and international mediation efforts, the prospects for serious ceasefire negotiations and the best ways of including civilians in a peace process. They assess whether anything can be done to improve the situation in Darfur even as national ceasefire talks falter. They also take a look at other developments in the Horn, from the unrest in Ethiopia to the region's approach to Eritrea, as well as the renewed negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the future of efforts to counter Al-Shabaab. They also discuss the growing role of Arab Gulf powers in the Horn and the changing nature of diplomacy in the region. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out ourHorn of Africaregional page. 

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From 22-24 August, leaders of the BRICS countries, the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will meet in Johannesburg for their annual summit. The meeting is highly anticipated as it comes at a point of growing polarisation and uncertainty on the international stage. In this rapidly changing global order, some see BRICS becoming a political counterweight to the West, but internal divides and divergent goals among the group on topics like UN reform suggest that it is far from united.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sanusha Naidu, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, to discuss what to expect at the upcoming BRICS Summit. They unpack the origins of the alliance and how its goals have shifted in recent years. They talk about whether BRICS is moving from a group of emergent economies to a political bloc in opposition to the West. They also discuss how the war in Ukraine has changed dynamics within BRICS, and South Africa’s relationship with Russia, which has come under increased scrutiny. They also talk about what’s next for BRICS and where the group might look next for potential expansion. 

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our pages onAfricaandMultilateral Diplomacypages.

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Sudan’s famed resistance committees arose in their present form during Sudan's 2019 revolution and then spearheaded the country's resistance to military rule over the subsequent years. With the outbreak of war in April between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, these groups are scrambling to aid Sudanese caught in the war yet also face an uncertain and challenging future. Many of their members have fled for safety abroad, and those who remain face dangers on many fronts, including from the warring parties and the dire humanitarian situation. 

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Maryam Elfaki, long and active member of the resistance committee in Sudan's northern sister city Bahri, about what is next for the revolutionary networks in the country now that they find themselves caught inside Sudan's terrible new war. They talk about the origins, structures, and internal dynamics of the resistance committees, their efforts to forge a collective political roadmap, whether anyone in Sudan can claim political legitimacy, how they view other political actors in the country, and whether resistance committees can play a direct role in any future peace talks or political process. They also talk about how resistance committees have transformed themselves into Sudan's humanitarian first responders and aim to provide the vanished services of Sudan's collapsed state. 

For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out ourSudancountry page.

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Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan, the West Darfur region has seen a dramatic resurgence in violence. While the RSF and the Sudanese army have focused their war effort on the capital Khartoum, fighting has erupted between Arab and non-Arab militias and paramilitary groups in West Darfur. Reports of mass atrocities and displacement share unsettling similarities to the brutal war that devastated Darfur 20 years ago. With the main conflict actors in Sudan being seemingly no closer to a peace deal after more than two months of fighting, the violence seems unlikely to subside. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Jerome Tubiana, writer, researcher, and a former Sudan analyst for Crisis Group, about the escalating violence in West Darfur. They discuss the history of conflict in Darfur, factors that played into escalating tensions on the eve of Sudan's new war, and how the outbreak of conflict in April has led to a rapid deterioration of stability in the region. They highlight the brutal tactics of armed groups in the region and the devastating toll that has taken on civilians. They talk about the actors involved and how the RSF and the Sudanese army view the conflict in Darfur. They also address if the fighting in Darfur might spread further in the region and into Chad and why peace in Khartoum might not be enough to end the violence in Sudan’s peripheries. 

For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our latest briefing “A Race against Time to Halt Sudan’s Collapse” and ourSudancountry page. 

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The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan's army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.

This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt's response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo's views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episodes, check out ourSudanandEgyptcountry pages.

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The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has taken a grave toll on civilians throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands have fled Sudan and those staying behind in urban areas are facing severe shortages of basic necessities. On 22 May, the conflict parties negotiated yet another ceasefire in their talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. But since every previous ceasefire has been broken, hope is faint that this one will hold.

This week on The Horn, Alan interviews Reem Abbas, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and a Sudanese activist and researcher, to discuss her first-hand encounter with the fighting in Khartoum and her arduous journey out of Sudan to Egypt. They discuss what life is now like in Khartoum, the systematic destruction of the city, the exodus of the Sudanese elite and the long-term implications for the country. They also talk about how the two parties are faring militarily, why the fighting might not end soon and how civilian actors should organise themselves. 

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out ourSudancountry page.

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The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued for almost a month as a string of ceasefires keep breaking down. This week, representatives of Sudan's warring factions are meeting in Jeddah for Saudi-U.S.-brokered talks aimed at ending the conflict that has collapsed Sudan’s capital Khartoum, left hundreds dead, and triggered a huge humanitarian crisis and a mass exodus.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Jerome Tubiana, Crisis Group’s former senior Sudan analyst, to unpack the roots of the conflict, the rise of the RSF and their leader Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, and their rivalry with Sudan’s armed forces. They take a closer look at the development of the RSF under former President Omar al-Bashir, and how they and Hemedti became a powerful force in Sudanese politics. They also talk about the ongoing conflict, who is supporting the armed forces and the RSF, and if the fighting could spread further in Sudan and beyond its borders. Finally, they discuss where the conflict might be headed, what a resolution could look like,  and what that might mean for the future of the RSF and Sudan.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statementStopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, ourSudancountry page and Jerome’s article in The BafflerLand of Thirst. 

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

Sudan has entered its second week of fighting between rival military factions. Battles between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have torn apart cities and towns, especially the capital Khartoum, where millions of civilians are facing shortages of basic necessities. A 72-hour ceasefire between the rival forces has offered some respite, allowing many Sudanese to flee the country and diplomats’ and other foreign nationals’ evacuation. But clashes still continue and mediators have struggled to convince the two sides to get back to talks.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Program director. They discuss what’s behind the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and between the men – General Abel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo – in command of each. They discuss the devastation a full-scale civil war would cause, efforts by the U.S., Gulf power and African leaders to mediate, and the conflict’s geopolitics and risk of outside involvement. They look back at how Sudan’s transition unravelled and the challenges facing talks and getting to civilian rule if the parties do get back to the table. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War.

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As the clashes between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary RSF continue for a second week, hopes for a settlement to end the fighting still appear slim. The conflict’s humanitarian fallout has already been dire, with hundreds of civilians killed and thousands displaced, especially in the country’s urban areas, where the fighting has been most concentrated. A humanitarian ceasefire which both sides have agreed on this week has led to a slowdown in fighting but has not prevented skirmishes between both sides. Regional and international actors have so far made little progress in bringing the parties to the negotiating table. 

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Dr. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a former leader in Sudan’s civilian Forces for Freedom and Change umbrella coalition, former assistant chief of staff to former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and former adviser to the UN mission to Sudan about ongoing fighting in the country, its humanitarian fallout in Khartoum and elsewhere, and what lies behind the power struggle between the leaders of the Sudanese Army and the RSF. They address the urban warfare’s impact on Khartoum's residents and their difficulties in escaping the conflict-affected areas. They delve into the origins of the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and their leaders Abdelfattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo. They also discuss his criticisms of the U.S.-led mediation process that eventually broke down into civil war, and whether or not there were any better alternatives. They talk about why tensions rose in the final weeks before the war and whether there is any hope left for a return to civilian rule in Sudan in the foreseeable future. 

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statementStopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, last week’s episode of our Hold Your Fire! podcastWar in Sudanand ourSudancountry page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

Two rival armies are driving Sudan toward full-blown civil war. Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces, led by Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, is tearing apart cities and towns across the country, including the capital Khartoum. The battles have already killed hundreds of civilians and left millions more facing shortages of basic necessities. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to look at the background to the crisis and what can be done to halt the fighting. They look at evolving tensions between the army and the RSF since Sudan’s 2019 popular uprising, especially since the 2021 coup, when Burhan and Hemedti seized full control of the state from civilians with whom they had been sharing power. They explain the trigger for the fighting: a dispute over how to integrate the RSF into regular army ranks. They discuss how Hemedti, a figure from outside Sudan’s traditional Nile elites, emerged as an influential power broker and what he wants in the confrontation with Burhan. They also talk about the two military leaders’ foreign ties, the danger that outside powers will get sucked into Sudan’s conflict and prospects for mediation. Finally, they ask what went wrong with Sudan’s transition after the 2019 uprising and whether external actors, particularly Western governments, could have done more to prevent its collapse. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out ourSudancountry page and our latest statement;Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War.

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In 2018, South Sudan's main warring parties signed a peace deal which today should have already concluded with national elections. However, mid-2022, after years of implementation delays and stalled politics, South Sudan's power-sharing government announced a two-year extension of its term in office and pushed elections until December 2024. Even with the extended timeline, South Sudan's roadmap to elections looks steep and littered with pitfalls. The current failure to implement the peace agreement and an almost non-existing voting infrastructure have raised doubts about whether South Sudan can be ready for elections any time soon. With violence raging across much of the country, many also question whether South Sudan can hold elections safely. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s political malaise and the country's fraught road to elections. They first address the implications of South Sudan's latest political crisis after President Salva Kiir relieved Angelina Teny, the wife of First Vice President Riek Machar, of her position as defence minister. They then identify critical steps that must be taken to ensure the viability of the upcoming election, including a credible new constitution. They also discuss why surveys show South Sudanese overwhelmingly want elections even though they also predict such elections will cause more violence. They then also discuss what approaches could help foster more stability in South Sudan’s political system in the long-run, and whether Kiir or Machar would ever consider retirement. 

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Crisis Group'sSouth Sudancountry page. 

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The Russian-owned Wagner Group continues to grow its footprint in parts of Africa, with a presence in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali and elsewhere. As a private military contractor with close ties to the Kremlin, the group ostensibly provides combat services but has also garnered a reputation for deft media tactics that have bolstered Russia's visibility on the continent. Several African countries now partner closely with Wagner for military support and training. But the war in Ukraine, and Wagner's role in it, has increased scrutiny on the paramilitary group and heightened concerns in Western capitals about its and Moscow's ambitions in Africa.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Julia Steers, VICE News’ correspondent in Nairobi, about her investigations into Wagner's activities in Africa and Ukraine. They talk about the group's origins and activities on the continent and what Russia and its African partners hope to gain from Wagner’s presence. They also discuss why Western governments are worried about Wagner's growing influence, and why the company is often seen as a useful partner for governments that have asked them to deploy. 

For more, check out Crisis Group's analysis on Russia's influence and Wagner's activitiesin Central African Republicandin Mali.

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On 18-19 February, the African Union (AU) held its annual heads of state summit in the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This event marked the culmination of a year of active diplomatic engagements across the African continent against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and its global fallout. The two-day summit was highly anticipated. The continent is facing an array of outside actors jostling for influence as global divisions mount, a multitude of conflicts and crises internally, and an insecure financial future, with much of its funding coming from external backers such as the European Union and their shifting priorities. In order to better tackle the challenges facing the continent in the years ahead, many observers are now calling for fast-tracking the institutional reforms of the AU.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior adviser to the AU, about the highlights of the 2023 AU Summit, the union’s overall progress and the challenges facing it. They discuss the AU's bid for permanent African seats on the UN Security Council and its possible accession to the G20. They also dive into the AU's position against coups, the crisis in the Great Lakes region and its mediating role in the conflict in Ethiopia. They touch on the organisation’s original ambition, its focus on peace and security, as well as the structural impediments it faces, such as member state sovereignty, decision-making difficulties and external funding. Finally, they discuss ways in which the AU can adapt to better fulfil its mandate.

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out ourAfricaProgram page, and our briefingEight Priorities for the African Union in 2023.

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This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Abdi Latif Dahir, East Africa correspondent for The New York Times, about the political landscape of several East African countries. They talk about President Museveni's long-lasting hold on power in Uganda and what to make of his son and potential successor, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, whose provocative statements on social media have sparked widespread attention and scrutiny. They take stock of Kenya's state of affairs, the Ruto presidency, and how borrowing from China has been burdening the country and its citizens. They also discuss Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan's early tenure as well as the future of Somalia. Finally, they touch on the regional response to the war in Ukraine and why some countries in Eastern Africa have been reluctant to take sides in the conflict. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out Abdi’s work inThe New York Times, including his recent article: “A Wild Card’: Son of Uganda’s President Jostles to Succeed His Father”, as well as our program page for theHorn of Africa.

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The Sudanese military and a coalition of major civilian actors signed a framework agreement on 5 December 2022, paving a path to a new civilian government more than a year after the military seized full power in an October 2021 coup. While the new deal has raised hopes that Sudan's long political impasse could be nearing an end, it has also received its fair share of criticism. Many viewed the negotiations as too exclusive, and the deal thus far excludes former rebels and others. Without broader support, many have argued that a new government could ultimately lack legitimacy.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Guma Kunda Komey, a former peace adviser to Sudan's last prime minister, about the politics of the negotiations over forming a new civilian government in Sudan. They talk about the effects of the military coup in late 2021 that saw the military take full control of the country and subsequent efforts to get the country’s political transition back on track. They discuss the December 2022 framework agreement, how it was reached, as well as the criticisms that have arisen around the deal, the challenges facing its implementation and its perceived lack of inclusiveness. They also discuss the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, whether it was a good deal, and what it would take to strike a peace deal with Sudan's remaining rebel movements.

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our latest statement “A Critical Window to Bolster Sudan’s Next Government” and ourSudancountry page.

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Over the past few months, Somali government forces have consolidated gains against Al-Shabaab in a large-scale offensive in central regions. The offensive was initiated by clans rising up against the group, which the government in turn sought to nurture and expand. While the government troops have made advances against the militant group, consolidating those gains and delivering on authorities’ promises to local communities will remain a significant challenge. Prospects for engagement with the insurgents has also taken a back seat amid the current fighting, even as Al-Shabaab has in the past shown to be a flexible and resilient actor. In the background, a festering humanitarian situation remains dire as a fifth failed rainy season has brought Somalia closer to famine. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Eastern Africa, about the latest developments regarding the offensive against Al-Shabaab, following recent fieldwork. After reviewing the circumstances leading up to the offensive, they discuss the government's strategy to involve local militias in the fight and the challenges this could present. They also assess how Al-Shabaab has responded and whether the federal government is any closer to exploring potential political dialogue with the jihadist group. Finally, they take a look at the status of federal-regional government reconciliation efforts amid upcoming political issues.

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out ourSomaliacountry page and our report from last year,Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

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In August, the White House unveiled a new strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa focused on promoting open societies, democracy and security, while increasing U.S. efforts to help Africa combat Covid-19 and adapt to climate change. Meanwhile, the U.S. remains active in the crises in the Horn of Africa, including the peace process in Ethiopia, resolving the political impasse in Sudan and countering Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Yet, America's role has also shifted amid a changing world, especially as Washington increasingly engages with other regional powers, including in the Middle East, about Horn of Africa affairs.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Molly Phee, U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, about how the Biden administration envisions partnership with African countries and Africa's role on the global stage. They talk about the administration's approach to great-power competition in relation to Africa, as well as the increasing role of regional powers, including from the Gulf. They then discuss the Ethiopia peace process, the role of Eritrea, and U.S. efforts to broker a new political deal in Sudan. They also examine whether the U.S. supports eventual political talks with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, what to do about South Sudan, U.S.-Kenya relations, and the continued and controversial use of U.S. sanctions as a diplomatic lever. Phee then previews the upcoming U.S.-Africa summit next week in Washington. 

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out ourAfricaprogram page. 

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Last week, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi held a meeting with Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta and other African leaders in Angola to agree on a ceasefire in eastern DR Congo. The situation there has been deteriorating rapidly in recent weeks, with militants from the M23 group making significant headway against Congolese forces, threatening to overrun the regional capital of Goma and prompting the East African Community (EAC) to deploy a force to the region. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and members of the M23 were notably absent from the recent meeting in Luanda, raising concerns that any agreement without their involvement might not be sustainable in the long run.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Crisis Group consultant Richard Moncrieff about the flare-up in violence in eastern Congo and how the conflict could develop. They talk about the M23’s recent advances in eastern Congo, Rwanda’s role in the conflict and the ongoing rivalry between Kinshasa and Kigali. They also discuss Kenya’s increased diplomatic and military involvement in the DR Congo. Finally, they address the declining popularity of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DR Congo and how African leadership has stepped up to address regional security challenges.

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in the DR Congo, make sure to check out ourDR Congocountry page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

On 2 November, the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces reached an agreement to cease hostilities and end almost two years of bloody war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The truce came after the Ethiopian army, together with Eritrean troops and forces from the Amhara region, which borders Tigray, made rapid advances into Tigray over recent weeks. It raises hopes that peace in Tigray might be within reach and that the region’s humanitarian crisis – amplified by a federal blockade on aid throughout much of the war – can finally be addressed. However, peace talks did not include Eritrea, despite its involvement in the war, and the deal includes no provisions about what will happen to the Eritrean forces in Tigray. It does involve other major concessions for the Tigrayans, who agreed to fully disarm within a month.  

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa director, to talk about the cessation of hostilities and its implications. They talk about the events leading to the truce, Ethiopia’s recent offensive in the Tigray region, Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict and how all sides are likely to view and respond to the agreement. They address the role of the African Union and its envoy, former Nigerian President Olesugun Obasanjo, in brokering the agreement. They also talk about the influence of external actors in Ethiopia and how the support of countries like the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye for the Ethiopian government shaped battlefield dynamics. They ask what went wrong with a transition in Ethiopia that had generated enormous optimism in its early years, and what the coming years might bring for politics in the Horn of Africa at a moment of considerable flux. 

For more on the situation in Ethiopia, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ethiopia country page.

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The contemporary rivalry between Eritrea and Tigray goes back several decades. After an almost-17-year-long civil war starting in the mid-1970s, the Eritrean EPLF and Tigrayan TPLF jointly defeated Ethiopia’s Derg regime in 1991, resulting in Eritrea’s independence and the TPLF taking power in Ethiopia. Despite their joint achievement, their already-complicated relations soon started to sour. A growing power struggle, as well as unresolved territorial disputes between the two sides, led to a deadly border war lasting from 1998 to 2000. Meanwhile, an increasingly repressive Eritrean regime found itself regionally and globally isolated. A new administration in Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed signed a peace agreement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in 2018, formally ending the border war. However, this rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara also appeared to pave the way for Ethiopia’s civil war, with Eritrea allying with Ethiopia’s federal government in the war against Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia that started in 2020.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to take a deep dive into the long and tumultuous relationship between Eritrea and Tigray to understand Eritrea’s motives and objectives in the Ethiopian conflict. They talk about the origins of the relations between the EPLF and the TPLF and their shared struggle against Ethiopia’s Derg regime from the 1970s to 1991. They unpack how relations between the two sides soured in a struggle for power and authority, culminating in the deadly border clashes starting in 1998. They also discuss how Eritrean President Afwerki’s motivations in the conflict in northern Ethiopia have shifted over time. Finally, they talk about how to navigate Eritrea’s role while trying to end the conflict in Tigray.  

Please note that this episode was recorded before the 2 November truce agreement between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray’s leaders.

For more in-depth analysis on Ethiopia and Eritrea, make sure to check out ourHorn of Africaregional page.

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