The Other Hand

The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.

The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?

Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?

Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?

Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term

At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.

And all the latest economic data

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Wing nuts are in charge?

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Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.

Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?

The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?

What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.

Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies?

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Initial financial market reaction to big events is often wrong

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More thoughts on the. Economics of Irish reunification

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Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.

We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.

Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance.

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Watch the oil price

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Irish and Eurozone inflation falls again - what is the ECB waiting for?

In the US, the super soaraway economy is dashing hopes of quick rate cuts . Perhaps any rate cuts. We need to remind ourselves that this is a good thing.

Will the earthquake in Taiwan create another supply shock? We think not but it is worth watching. So are oil prices worth close monitoring.

Preparing for war on islands just off Taiwan.

Is the EV craze cresting?

Why do some US Republicans believe anything that Putin says?

We look at the history of civilian casualties during wartime.

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One of the first thing that economists are taught is the Free Trade is a Good Thing. One thing that economists don't speak too much about is that free trade creates both winners and losers. Arguably, not nearly enough attention has been paid to the losers.

Whether or free trade is always a net positive depends on many factors. And the alternatives to free trade - the choices made by politicians about things like protectionism - can be even worse.

That said, China's accession to the World Trade Organisation was a huge shock and wiped out huge swathes of manufacturing industry and jobs throughout the developed world. Too much too soon seems have been the case. Those left behind communities became the hunting ground for Trump, Brexiteers and populists. They stil are - and there is a distinct possibility of a second China shock coming our way. What will be the results this time?

Irish SMEs complain about government inspired costs and regulatory burdens. Are they right to moan? A lot of SMEs are either failing or in danger of going bust.

Interest rates: the new normal isn't too far away from where they are now. Discuss.

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Leading journalist Sarah Carey talks to Jim and Chris about Leo Varadkar's departure and Simon Harris' accession.

'Harris needs to be much more than a good communicator'. The big test, one of many, will be his choice of cabinet. That will signal whether genuine change is on the way. 'The reshuffle will tell us if Harris is serious'

Will any exiting FG TDs be tempted back?

Why are so many voices of the centre so scared to speak up?

Why do 'progressives' oppose building anything?

Harris should ban his party from social media.

Mainstream media ( we are looking at you Fintan and Una) is as responsible as Sinn Fein for painting Ireland as a failed state. All of the evidence, with full acknowledgement of all of the problems, shows emphatically that Ireland is the opposite of a dystopian hell hole.

Sinn Fein have peaked. The electorate is waking up to the fact that they offer slogan without solutions.

The ones to watch are the independents. Maybe some of them should be tempted into government via ministerial appointments - but only if they join the Party.

Politicians take all of the blame and none of the credit. It's a cruel and thankless gig. Maybe FG need a spell in opposition?

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Global growth showing signs of acceleration

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Markets are telling us to stop worrying

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A packed podcast!

For the past year or so we have been noticing weakness in Irish exports, particularly pharmaceuticals and one or two other key areas. Falling exports were a big driver of the Irish 'recession' last year.

At least part of this was Covid related and the fall represented payback for the massive boost arising from exports of vaccine and other health related products during the pandemic.

It's only one month's data, so shouldn't be over-interpreted, but latest numbers hint at two things. First, normalisation of exports may be close. Second, as the quintessential small open economy, Ireland is a bell-weather for the world economy. Maybe there is a hint of global trade and global growth picking up.

Maybe the U.S. won’t cut rates at all this year?

Irish inflation continues its fall.

Oil prices edging up again.

China - the one economy where we cannot talk about a positive growth surprise.

interest rates at current levels are maybe the new normal?

Macron’e Ukrainian epiphany

Jim disappears down the crypto rabbit hole

Happy St Patrick’s day! Ireland’s soft power is worth billions. Only idiots begrudge its exercise.

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Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?

The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects.

The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news.

The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle?

Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal.

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All the latest economic data

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All the latest economic news.

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On the numbers, the Irish economy is in recession - but is it?

Talking to one segment of the Irish diaspora - what do they think of their host country? And their thoughts on Ireland.

European inflation comes in at 2.6% vs 2.5% expected. How awful.

"The incumbent government is deeply unpopular with younger voters because NIMBY older voters are allowed to block all development" Which country is described in this quote?

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Current opinion polls are pointing towards another coalition government. How long would those coalition negotiations take? Would a prolonged period of no government be a bad thing for business and the economy?

Are banks making too much money? If so, what is the right remedy? Tax those profits? Break them up to force competition? Encourage Fintech new entrants?

Irish jobs at a record high. A truly remarkable story.

2nd anniversary of the Ukraine war. Many are in denial but Russia is on the advance and Cold War 2 is well underway.

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House prices rise in Ireland - - for the fourth month is a row? How come? Plenty of buyers is the simple answer. It seems that higher interest rates don't work in the way they used to. Do they even work at all?

Speaking of interest rates, the prominent economist who got the US - and global - inflation story right, and therefore the interest rate story right, is musing about the possibility that the next move in US rates might have to be up. That's right, up. If true - and it's only an outside chance at this stage - this will have ramifications for all financial markets and economies. Maybe even house prices. There again, maybe not.

Executive pay - winner takes all in a system that is so obviously rigged it could turn anyone into a lefty revolutionary.

Westminster doesn't work. It is a Trifecta of dysfunction - we talked about this before the latest nonsense erupted!

Russian forces are on the advance in Ukraine. It doesn't look good.

Jim is asked how it feels to be replaced by a robot!

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A lawyer - a 'special prosecutor' - recently caused a furore with an allegation about Joe Biden's 'cognitive decline'

In conversation with Professor of neuroscience Shane O'Mara we explore the mysteries of ageing and the emerging evidence about how to maximise our chances of becoming a 'Super Ager'

That lawyer shouldn't have tried to diagnose Biden. Nor should any non-specialist. There are strict criteria for that sort of thing. There is no publicly available evidence that suggests Biden meets those criteria. A speculation: these days, all things considered, if that evidence existed it would have been made public - leaked in one form or another.

Nothing is guaranteed at the individual level - non-smokers do sometimes get lung cancer, Chris's grandmother died in her sleep at 98, previously quite well, after smoking and drinking all her life. That, of course, proves nothing. We have to understand risk and probability: adopt a certain lifestyle (and/or be lucky enough to have one), and chances of living well and living well into a ripe old age, can be raised significantly. What is known:

While we have heard about some or all of these things before, the evidence is piling up that they really do matter. There have been roughly 120 dementia drug trial failures in recent years, with recent successes only showing very limited efficacy. But some scientists say as many 40% of dementia cases can be prevented by lifestyle changes. Go for a walk and chat with your friends! It can make a huge difference!

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The other day we received the longest email ever sent to The Other Hand.

It was a thoughtful point-by-point critique of pretty much everything we have said about Trump, Biden and the state of American politics.

We get lots of emails and comments and Tweets etc. We try to reply respectfully to as many as we can. Indeed, we encourage the conversation.

In replying to this email we attempt something different: the salient points are given voice by an AI robot. A pretty simple and cheap one, admittedly, but it is an experiment, let us know what you think.

So, a first for The Other Hand: in conversation with a robot.

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What is public service broadcasting for? Why does RTE exist? Should it?

Whatever the answers to these questions, a new model for public serve broadcasting is sorely needed.

Populist suggestions for an amnesty for licence fee dodgers are unserious politics. But that's the dilemma facing Sinn Fein: become a party of teh centre or spout more populist nonsense? As they lose votes to the anti-immigrant right, they are caught between a rock and a hard place.

Why is the hard left, especially in the UK so prone to anti-semitic conspiracy theories. Because Lenin left them with exactly that legacy. They can't seem to shake it off.

The US is also fond of conspiracy theories. There is often a puppet-master behind events like Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the Moon Landings.

The conspiracy garbage around the Hamas attacks on October 7th have a lot of historical precedent. One conclusion theorising is that conspiracy is both seductive and addictive.

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Inflation comes in higher than expected in the U.S. Markets push interest rate cuts further into the future.

Inflation comes in lower than expected in the U.K. Markets think the Bank of England has a green light to cut soon.

This might come as a surprise: nobody is quite sure what causes inflation. Central bank models assume the link between interest rates and inflation is via the labour market - wages. But inflation has come down, as interest rates have gone up, without any connection with the labour market - economies are running with very tight jobs markets. Go figure. Somebody needs to work out what the inflation process is, since central banks appear to be looking in the wrong place.

Why is the inflation target 2%? Any science behind this number?

The magic and mystery that is productivity growth. It’s not been around for very long. Everybody wants some but nobody is quite sure how to deliver it.

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Ever heard of DEXIT?

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John Bruton RIP

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'Dr Strangelove' was a 1960s movie that satirised the cold war. It explored 'Mutually Assured Destruction' and was a riff, in a way, on 'game theory'. A number of characters have emerged that echo Strangelove.

The US economy continues to power ahead, not least in terms of almost unbelievable job creation.

Higher interest rates were supposed to cool the economy, destroy jobs and therefore lower inflation. In theory anyway.

Job growth continues to astound yet inflation is, essentially, back to target. If interest rates are responsible for that fall in inflation, a big if in our view, they haven't worked via the channel of the labour market (or the housing market or most any other market). So how have higher interest rates achieved anything? Would - did - inflation come down all on its own? After a supply shock, yes! The US may yet run into demand problems now - too much of it thanks to very strong labour demand but that hasn't been a problem until now, at least.

And Jim has a few words about farms and farmers.

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Sleepwalking to war? Not so much!

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The super soaraway US economy and stock market

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It's coming up the 75th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell's 1984.

We discuss with professor Shane O'Mara the various psychological insights of Orwell and how they endure and resonate to the present day.

We don't like chaos and detest change. When our beliefs don't cost us anything - and keep us on good terms with fellow group members - we don't care about the facts. Winston Smith's torturer didn't just persuade him to say two plus two equals five, he got Smith to truly believe it.

Beliefs, once acquired are sticky and change only slowly. We look to our group identities for affirmation, not for facts or data or truth.

So how can minds be changed, or at least put on nodding acquaintance with objective reality? Start by realising that facts don't matter, at least in the first instance. And listen very carefully, with respect, to what people have to say.

Are we sleepwalking into authoritarianism? Do autocracies naturally burn out? Do democracies?

Do old men have a tendency to authoritarianism?

Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic with less government intrusion in their lives. So why are they voting for someone who will (has) deliver exactly what they don't want?

Dislike of the other is becoming more important than fondness for our own tribes. Are Democrats really "un-American"?

And a brief update on Shane's thoughts on new wonder drugs that cut obesity and control appetite.

He is still sceptical about AI.

ChatGPT on what it thought about the show notes, above:

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'The Bitter lessons of Brexit'. We all fervently wish that Brexit has gone away. It hasn't. It's more like a slow moving chronic disease but it is sill an infection for the economy and the UK at large. It's going to stay that way.

Was Darwin wrong? Could evolution go into reverse? Evidence of Homo Sapiens losing their backbone are everywhere, especially in Washington DC. De Santis demonises Trump and then endorses him. The Don has a new best friend.

Yeats comes to mind:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre   

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;

Surely the Second Coming is at hand.  

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Trump is ahead in he polls and could be the next leader of the free world. He has promised to be a 'dictator for a day'

Will it be the catastrophe that most seem to expect? Is everything he says wrong?

Are liberals the ones who have created the conditions for the global march of right-wing populism?

Immigration is the big controversy everywhere. Nobody is debating it rationally. We give it a try.

Ireland says no. To Wind farms, solar farms, tall buildings, any buildings, data centres and immigrants.

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Latest trade data for Ireland suggest exports are struggling - for the first prolonged period in quite a while. That points to a world trade slowdown - and generalised economic weakness everywhere (apart from the US). Irish GDP could well shrink in 2024 if this continues - for the second year in a row.

Inflation surprising to the upside is now a more-or-less global phenomenon after much bigger than expected falls through 2023. Is the last mile on inflation reduction going to be really hard?

A lot depends on energy prices. Notwithstanding the trouble in the Red Sea, oil prices are easing back again. As are natural gas prices. If that continues then all will be well with inflation and interest rates will fall this year, albeit maybe a bit later than mortgage holders would like. If oil prices spike, all bets are off.

Trump's coalition of supporters is expanding to include the educated (graduates) young. That's new, Why do so many Americans think that life is getting worse when the facts speak otherwise. Why are narratives at such variance with reality? Facts and data just ain't what they used to be.

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Low or no economic growth is a bigger problem than most people realise.

What we don't know about growth might surprise you.

Too many country's are losing interest in growth. Not Ireland - yet. But unless growth is nurtured it will be quick to disappear. And there are plenty of warning signs on the horizon.

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China wants Taiwan on the same terms that it took Hong Kong. 'One country two systems'. A bargain that Xi Jingping failed to honour. No wonder most Taiwanese are suspicious.

Taiwan's upcoming Presidential election merits close attention. There probably isn't a 'good' outcome. Just ones that hasten or defer a potential confrontation.

Latest inflation data, for end 2023, has generally disappointed. We still think inflation will continue to fall and central banks risk cutting rates too slowly.

Ireland is drowning in cash - booming tax revenues - but lacks strategic fiscal direction. It's raining, so why salt money into a rainy day fund. Health, infrastructure, law & order and the environment are all crying out for resources. Instead, populist giveaways are the order of the day, whether from the government or opposition parties.

The biggest fiscal threat facing Ireland is the unsustainability of booming corporate tax revenues. One way to deal with this is to boost the domestic side of the economy, especially SMEs. Ireland needs an IDA-type organisation to replicate the success of the real IDA with domestic firms.

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How many centrist political parties does Ireland need?

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Another year of forecasts, mostly wrong. And another season for making forecasts

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Over 100 countries will have elections of one kind or another during 2024. Some analysts think that will be the largest number in history. A lot of those elections could be very consequential.

We start the year with Taiwanese elections - the outcome could well provoke China, widely thought to be preparing for a possible war by the end of the decade.

We end with the possible return of Trump. How bad could that be? Unimaginably bad. The Colorado Supreme Court made a last dict stand for democracy but the Trump-stuffed Supreme Court in DC knows which side its bread is buttered.

As well as a large number of elections, we observe a large number of wars. A secure job occupation for youngsters would be a drone operator. That could be a job for life and one that survives any upcoming European war.

The Shinners reinvent economic policy: they want to drive huge numbers of recent mortgagees into negative equity. Fantasy economics will not deter the fans of Ireland's extremists. Every Western country these days has to prove Putin is right in at least one thing: we truly are all decadent.

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The IDA's annual report on companies supported by them shows tech job losses. This is consistent with Ireland's external trade data - although the latter remains heavily distorted by post-pandemic return to normal for pharmaceutical exports.

Three central banks met this week. All left interest rates unchanged but delivered very different messages. Members of the Federal Reserve's rate setting committee explicitly forecast US rate cuts next year. At a time when the US economy remains in rude health, is growing strongly and the labour market remains very tight.

The Bank of England and the ECB both said it is far too early to be even thinking about rate cuts, despite weak economies. Three BoE rate setting headbangers even voted for rate hikes!

At least one of these central banks is going to be wrong. Probably all of them.

All we are prepared to predict is that your mortgage and other borrowing costs are likely to change next year.

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Jim returns from Canada and stresses the scope for improved economic & business ties with Ireland.

Inflation is coming down but the world's central banks are poised to to do battle with the markets and disabuse them of their assumptions about rapid interest rate cuts next year. Falling interest rate expectations have helped some mortgage rates to ease, especially in the US and UK. House prices have reacted in time honoured fashion and are showing signs of rising again.

Is the great house price correction, so desired by so many people, over before it got going?

Could the world economy be stabilising and 2024 prospects improving - contrary to most forecasts?

What is wrong with Rishi Sunak? How can a man so smart - and decent - get it so badly wrong? One answer: he doesn't get politics. Which is a bit strange for a Prime Minister. In particular, his business background means he believes that reasonable people can be negotiated with. You don't meet too many ideological wing-nuts in hedge -fund land - at least not ones who survive for very long. Sunak's mistake is to assume that his fractious, hard-right colleagues can be bargained with. Whatever they are given, whatever he concedes, it is never enough.

The West is failing Ukraine. Putin could now win. And he won't stop at Ukraine. A new European war could be the result. That's not just tragic for Ukraine but also for our sons and daughters who will be asked to fight that war.

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In conversation with professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin.

Novo Nordisk has become Europe's largest, most valuable, company on the back of some new weight-loss drugs.

Is the hype justified?

It's early days but the preliminary evidence is an emphatic yes!

There are familiar caveats: potential side effects and cost.

But these drugs do seem to work.

And not just for weight loss - this is where it gets more speculative/preliminary but there are hints that the drugs' effects on the brain could have some positive benefits for other types of addictions, not just those involving food.

Maybe we should just all buy the shares? (This is not an investing tipping podcast!!!)

Will the producers of ultra processed foods go the way of tobacco companies?

Could these drugs even help us survive Christmas (this really is at the highly speculative/no data end of the spectrum :))

Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology andInstitute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin, D02 PN40,Ireland

His new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds 

His newsletter: BrainPizza

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Jim shares his impressions of the state of Irish-Canada relations during a tour of the major east coast cities.

Also in the frame: latest Exchequer returns and GDP data. Boom and bust in a week.

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Inflation surprises, again, by its rapid fall. But central bankers have been telling us that the 'last mile' will take years. The markets have been laughing at those central bankers. And it is said that our monetary masters value their 'credibility'. Self-awareness training wouldn't go amiss. Or maybe they should just hire a decent PR agency.

A week of obituaries. The death of the greatest investor and one of the richest - that most people will never have heard of.

Henry Kissinger: greatest statesman ever or war criminal?

It's being said that if the Democrats replaced Biden, they would win by a landslide. It's also being said that if the Republican's replace Trump, they will win by a landslide. Nikki Haley is an outside bet for the GOP nomination - even Trump could be persuaded if she promises him a full pardon.

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The right is rising, even in Ireland. Each country has its own drivers but immigration is a unifying grievance.

How big a problem is this in Ireland?

Should we all abandon social media? Follow the example of the mayor of Paris?

What are the economics of immigration? When people say "we should spend our money on our own citizens" are they right? Or just not able to do arithmetic?

The grass isn't always greener elsewhere.

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What will be the business and economic consequences of the Dublin riots?

There is often trouble when large pools of uneducated, unemployed young men are organised by old men - mad mullahs, army councils, Trump-style demagogues. The list of suspects is a long one. Whether that trouble fizzles out or leads to revolution depends on many things. Mostly how the rest of us react to far right (or left) neo-fascism.

Data continue to point to a very robust Irish labour market. Export (especially chemical & pharma) weakness has yet to lead to significant net job losses. Similarly, high profile layoffs in the tech sector are not showing up in the job stats. We are still short of workers. But not, apparently, rioters on scooters. Are they on benefits?

The UK’s Autumn Statement was a blast from the past. Transparent fiddling of the numbers, utterly unrealistic forecasts of fiscal austerity post-election and an unaffordable, unsustainable tax cut. Whoever wins the next election will have to reverse that tax cut and then some. Somebody needs a plan to get the UK economy going again.

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Argentina is a study in not how to do it. For a very long time. And here they go again. Weep for Argentina.

Given the serial objections by Sinn Fein to house building in their back yard, NIMBY's should probably vote for them. But where are the houses going to be built? At what cost? Shinner published targets for house buliding on their watch are close to being met by the current government. If house building and rental property supply greatly improve, but prices and rents don't fall, is teh housing crisis solved?

Is the Board of OpenAI intelligent? Has the singularity been reached?

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Solving the Irish housing crisis is, in principle, easy: just build 50,000 units a year until the word 'crisis' disappears from the headlines and public consciousness. Is that a practical, realistic proposition - for any government of any persuasion? Why not just do it?

Lots of trade data, particularly for exports, suggest that economies are slowing down. Irish exports are really hurting from the slowdown in general and the weakness in Pharmaceutical trade in particular. Far fewer people are getting Covid boosters.

The weakness (relatively speaking!) in corporation tax receipts is in danger of becoming a trend. We will know a lot more in a couple of weeks when the all-important November exchequer returns are published.

The European and Uk economies are moribund. They are at stall speed - it won't take much to knock them into recession. Markets are actively thinking about rate cuts happening much sooner than central bankers are saying is likely. One or two prominent commentators are beginning to flirt with the idea that central banks, particularly the ECB, are on the verge of a big mistake - keeping rates too high for too long

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The only way to understand the latest outbreak of fighting in the ongoing Conservative Party's 30 year war is to look back at history. This has all been going on for a long time.

To paraphrase (only a bit) John Major, this is now the Battle of the Bastards. It really is Game of Thrones stuff. But the country - the UK - is being laid to waste.

The fight to succeed Sunak is well and truly on. It could well be that Donald trump's future will determine who wins. Farage may be in the jungle, but he could emerge as the winner. It is that febrile.

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Rishi Sunak surprises everybody - he is even capable of a surprise!

Cameron is back in, Braverman is back out.

Sunak wants to be the candidate for change?

Look at Cameron's track record and weep. But could his return be a really smart move by Sunak? Or will it merely invite the right-wing nut-jobs to try and defenestrate him?

Just when there was a chance for UK politics to become boringly predictable!

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In this episode Jim asks Chris if he is ghost writing articles for the FT.

An actual FT journalist, one of their best, wrote an article about the things that Chris has been banging on about since The Other Hand started. Life in the Uk is getting steadily worse. Tim Harford cites three personal anecdotes and lots of data to make the point that public sector services have collapsed in the UK.

Chris agrees and extends the point to a lot of private sector services. One reason why both private and public sectors are falling over is a lot of vey good people, normally hard working and conscientious, have worked out that the game is rigged. Anyone who believes that 'if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well' is a mug. When average bankers get £10m for... what?. When signing on bonuses for hedge fund managers have reached £100m! 'The system is rigged' is not an unreasonable conclusion. When you don't even get respect for doing a good job, let alone fair pay, what's the point?

And lots of chat about really interesting economic data released around the world this week. Economies are wilting under the pressure of higher interest rates. Irish manufacturing, especially from the 'modern' sector is very weak.

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The peak in interest rates grows closer. Maybe

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We will not be cancelled

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Lots of economic data on both sides of the Atlantic are now pointing to slowing growth.

Very slow in the case of Europe, a bit slower in the US. Even the US labour market is no longer defying gravity.

Is Ireland just an extension of the US economy? It certainly is extremely correlated with US economic performance.

It looks like the Corporation tax boom is over. For once, economists can say 'we told you so'

ECB tries its hand at forecasting, again. Probably with the same degree of accuracy as before.

Are we at peak interest rates, including mortgage rates? Don't count on the ECB discovering self-awareness.

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With Professor Shane O'Mara

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The US Congress is not a serious legislature

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With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times.

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Is ESG investing getting it right?

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Will the ECB this week do the right thing? (Spoiler alert: nothing)

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Nathan Johns @nathanrjohns of the Irish Times discusses all of the action in this weekend's quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup.

One unfancied team making the semis is ok, two reveals poor RWC seeding & planning. But Nathan convincingly argues that calibrating these things is difficult.

Nathan persuades Chris that the 'technical' aspects of the game are as important as the flashier, more 'entertaining' stuff.

But isn't rugby all about tries?

What about the big one, the final?

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The end of liberal conceits?

Chris thinks there is evidence for the existence of more anti-Semitism in the world, latent or otherwise, than most are prepared to admit. In the UK, few people can quite bring themselves to believe the evidence of their own eyes and admit to the anti-Semitism present in the Labour party - at least until Starmer began to clean the stables.

Everyone, everywhere, says they are not anti-Semitic but despise Israeli policies.For many that is true, genuine and honest. For too many, it's just a mantra to put a thin veil over their anti-Semitism.

Chris argues that something pretty fundamental shifted in the past few days. Jim disagrees.

Hard thinking and endless reading (and listening) provides few answers and reveals only questions. One (possible) conclusion is that those with certainty are not to be trusted. Three thousand yers of history count for a lot, for all sides in this conflict. Great harm has been done to and by all sides.

The intellectual contortions, verbal machinations, sheer flabby-mindedness of the world's left-liberal commentariat has been a wonder to behold. They try hard to blame, of course, Hamas, but 'provide context' via a critique of US foreign policy for the past hundred years. And, of course, blame Israel. It's the old politicians trick, in grotesque form, of saying something true and then immediately following up with a complete non sequitur.

F. Scott Fitzgerald said, "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Well, we certainly have plenty of first rate intellectuals around the West who believe that Hamas is entirely to blame for the terrorist attacks.. But so is the US and Israel.

History provides plenty of facts. Choose one - or a few - in isolation and it is easy to take sides.

Policy wonks have been claiming all week that they Hamas did what they did because they wanted to derail Israel-Saudi rapprochemont. If that is true, Hamas have succeeded. But how does anyone know what Hamas wants, other than their oft-stated aim of the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew? The terrorism of Hamas might just have been nihilistic in nature, with little or no strategic thinking behind it. Perhaps Hamas 'succeeded' beyond their wildest dreams and haven't a clue what to do next other than to keep fighting, probably to death of all of them except their corpulent generals, safe behind lines, comfortably ensconced in luxury hotels in Qatar. Probably the hotels built for the football World Cup.

Nothing, nothing at all, justifies what Hamas did. What Hamas did won't justify doing the same in return.

The world is heading for catastrophe if Gaza is 'levelled'. The shrivelling West is trying to hold the Israelis back. The term in international law is 'proportionality'. We won't see that unless there is another fundamental shift.

Now that World's policeman, the US, has left the stage - descended into isolationism and chaos in the case of Washington DC - conflicts will be a much more regular feature of the next 70 years. The period since WW2 was, historically, a remarkably peaceful time. 'Pax Americana' is no more. The 'Global South' is getting off the fence and landing in Beijing.

Slightly more mundane thoughts:

The Chair of the Federal Reserve made a daft speech this week. Sentiments that we are more used to seeing coming out of the ECB.

Geopolitics are disrupting the bond markets and threaten a stock market crash. The Fed's response? 'We might have to raise interest rates'.

Watch what they do rather than what they say but this is, at worst, mad, at best, irresponsible.

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Octabuild were kind enough to host Jim & Chris for a Webinar discussing all things Budget 2024, with a special focus on the construction industry.

The 8 member companies of Octabuild are Dulux Paints, Etex Ireland, Glennon Brothers, Grant Engineering, Gyproc, Irish Cement, Kingspan Insulation and Wavin Ireland’.

The national housing crisis puts the construction industry at the heart of what happens next. So, all things considered, this was an extremely timely event with a focus that couldn't be more topical.

This podcast is a recording of the Octabuild Webinar.

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Ireland's export data weakens again. It's beginning to look like a trend. And maybe the world economy is weaker than we thought.

The Health Service needs more money. How many countries can say that? It's as true in Ireland as elsewhere. But the suspicion grows that you could give the HSE any amount of money and it would still have a budget hole of €2 billion at the end of the year. Any year. Somebody needs to find teh cure for fiscal incontinence.

The world looks ever more dangerous by the day.

Plenty of gloomy analyses are appearing that look back on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the start of something akin to the events that began with assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in June 1914. At the very least, lots of seemingly disparate events are observed and then linked in ways that make for alarmist headlines. The war in Ukraine, Iran’s threatened war against Israel, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia might be about to invade Kosovo, the US placing two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean and Chinese threats against Taiwan: all of these things are, for some observers, beginning to look like a pattern. 

The thread - if there is one - that links most or all of these conflicts, actual or threatened, is growing American dysfunction and, in particular, isolationism of the US. One interpretation of post WW2 history is that the world went through an unusually peaceful period mostly because of ‘Pax Americana’: the US as the global policeman. Commentators such as Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins, prominent blogger (‘Substacker’ to be precise) Noah Smith and historian Niall Ferguson have all penned dark and pessimistic pieces focussing on different aspects of the threats facing the world. All agree that those threats have not been as great for a very long time. Mostly because ‘Pax Americana’ is over.

History does teach us that what happens next is unlikely to have been predicted by anybody. But the more apocalyptic analysts see two obvious threats. First, the Israeli armed forces are overwhelmed fighting a three front war in Gaza, the West Bank and along the Lebanese border. Somewhere - perhaps everywhere - in that fight will be Iran. If the US gets involved, so, perhaps, will Iran’s new ally, Russia. As an intermediate possible step, Qatar could disrupt global supplies of natural gas in the same way OPEC did to oil in the 1970s - that would make last year’s spike in energy prices look like a small-scale rehearsal. 

The other big foreseeable threat is Taiwan. China has said, explicitly, that it will take back the Island. If it intends to do so over the next decade or so, now would seem to be the most opportune time. 

‘Joining the dots’ is the favourite activity of the armchair analyst. The pictures that emerge from these exercises can be truly alarming. They could, of course, be completely wrong. But a lot of people are drawing very similar pictures.

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Why Ireland lost in a game of the finest of margins - really.

On the numbers, Ireland and New Zealand could replay that game, deploy the same players and tactics, and Ireland would win 9 games out of 10. This was the tenth game.

What about Ireland going forward - looking good, even in terms of replacing Jonny Sexton. Tight Head Prop, a massively under-rated position, could be more problematic.

How is it possible that England are the only undefeated side in the World Cup?

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Everything really is connected to everything else

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We really are doing economic policy all wrong

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They really deserved to win this one

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Professor Charlotte Cavaillé is a global expert on inequality and redistribution. Her extensive research program has reframed the discussion such that our perceptions of fairness are front and centre. With some surprising results.

In many countries, particularly the US and UK, inequality has risen. Economists might argue that self-interested electorates, which contain increasing numbers of people suffering form inequality, might start calling for more redistribution. But the evidence says not. Moreover, in France, where inequality has not risen in US-style fashion, people are convinced they live in ever worse economic conditions.

The more we think about this, the more complicated things become. Professor Cavaillé urges us, persuasively, to think about the issues in new ways.

If we focus on who we are redistributing from, we might get a very different discussion compared to when we focus on who we are redistributing to. Fat cats in the 1% or benefit scrounging freeloaders?

The immigration debate is salient everywhere. Breaking down - understanding our societal norms about fairness & proportionality - help to explain why, Danish-style, allowing migrants to work - to earn - has more popular appeal than giving them benefits. It might even make sense - countries that restrict or forbid migrant employment take note.

We discuss all this and more with Charlotte as she takes us through her brilliant new book 'Fair Enough"

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Do we have a right brain problem? Author and journalist Matthew Syed said so in a recent fascinating Sunday Times column.

Professor of Neuroscience at Trinity College Dublin, Shane O'Mara, says no.

So why is our political discourse, pretty much everywhere, so polarised, context & nuance free, and just so nasty?

Why, when we know, with as much certainty as we can muster, that the world is a very uncertain place, is everyone so certain?

Shane is tempted to say that the world was ever thus and Chris & Jim should stay off Twitter.

Point taken, but the authoritarian, conspiracy loving nut jobs do seem to have the upper hand - or at least are making more noise.

In this podcast, AI is confused with AIB. That is a step too far.

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Are equities heading for an October event?

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Batten down the hatches? Fat chance

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Time for rocket scientists to stop blowing up the (economic) world

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In an Irish Times Article that has gone globally viral, journalist Nathan Johns, @nathanrjohns, analysed data that suggests S. Africa might have won that match. Perhaps even deserved to win that match.

But they lost.

Why?

Numbers are not quite everything it seems. Nearly everything, but not everything.

Chris looks forward to a Wales victory in the semi final. Maybe even against Ireland.

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A big week in financial markets: bond yields are up to multi-year highs. All other asset prices have been affected. Equities are down, exchange rates are all over the place.

The new narrative is interest rates 'higher for longer'. Wethink this could be yet another narrative fallacy.

Interest rates were left unchanged in the US and UK following the ECB's latest dopey hike.

Economies are weakening under the strain of past rate hikes. Particularly the dopey ones.

Is Euroscepticism, pre-Brexit style, going to make a comeback?

Support for Ukraine - is it fracturing?

Saying goodbye to the Welsh economy.

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Latest data and forecasts for the Irish economy suggest 'growing but slowing'

Unemployment is forecast to stay very low - essentially an economy at full employment

Unemployment in many countries is forecast to stay low, despite low or no growth. That's because labour markets have been puzzlingly tight for years. Are we just extrapolating the recent past and forgetting that unemployment could rise?

Bond markets expect rate cuts next year. They won't get thise without a rise in unemployment, which few, if any, forecasters expect.

Somebody is getting this wrong.

If I was Finance Minister for a day!

Surely realpolitik dictates less prudence now in exchange for more prudence post-election? The Central Bank & IFAC both call for prudence NOW, arguably handing the election to Sinn Fein - who will be anything but prudent with the public finances.

A big UK inflation surprise

Not such a big surprise: Sunak reveals himself to be a grubby climate change denier.

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Lots of great rugby over the last two weekends.

Uruguay scare France by playing running rugby. Really entertaining stuff. One poor clearance kick undid the Uruguayans.

The kicking game.

Tonga show Ireland up at the breakdown. Another problem for Paul O'Connell

England, so boring - but so what?

A tight point spread for Ireland S. Africa?

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US inflation rose again last month: is the good news over? The Saudi-Russian alliance seems determined to get oil prices up to $100. That could mean €2+ for a litre or petrol and/or diesel.

Interest rates look to be in 'higher for longer mode'. There is nothing good that flows from $100 oil - other than an economic slowdown/recession that will cut fossil fuel consumption & help, a little, the environment.

Putin is building a new friendship circle, including fellow megalomaniacs from N. Korea and mad mullahs from Tehran.

The advice to the next government everywhere, including UK, US and Ireland, is the same: build more houses. In the UK and Ireland that's gonna need big reforms of the planning system.

Comedians - and serious journalists - are starting to tell jokes about Sunak's chances of winning the next general election.

Are Ross O'Carroll-Kelly's D4 brothers-in-arms helping to shutter a 112 year-old cricket club?

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Euro area economy is weak

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Latest Irish government tax and spending figures have prompted lots of questions. Not least: is the corporation tax bonza over?

Economists and budgetary watchdogs are only doing their job when they warn about spending one-off, or windfall, tax receipts. But the upcoming budget will be as big a political event as it will be about economics. Arguably the most intensely political budget in a very long time. The politics all point towards giving money away. Maybe there are clever ways of doing that.

Jim thinks Chris might have a bit of an agenda when it comes to the UK. Chris claims to just have data. Either way, major bits of the country's infrastructure are at risk of falling down. Quite sad really.

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The Other Hand's occasional coverage of the Rugby World Cup starts here!

An ongoing conversation with Irish Times journalist Nathan Johns. Enjoy some proper rugby analysis, a little rugby banter, free of cliche and jargon, from a journalist who really does know his stuff.

In today's episode we set the scene by asking whether the RWC can be as unifying a force for France as was the 1998 soccer world cup.

The opening match couldn't have been better scripted: between the first and second favourites.

Why are the two sides of the draw so lopsided? Could Ireland fail to get out of 'the group of death'

The groups were decided years ago, to ease the travel plans of the world's prawn sandwich brigade rugby officials and their friends and families

Will France, 'the most Unfrench team' prevail?

How will Ireland do? They cant be bullied any more but lack a little depth in the event of key injuries

England don't even know what their team is (really)

The Welsh had better watch out for Fiji

New Zealand really do have weaknesses, particularly up front

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Our latest podcast is up, a conversation between Chris and Shane O’Mara, Professor of Brain Science at Trinity.

Shane, a prolific best-selling author, has a brilliant new book out -  Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds 

And a terrific Substack: BrainPizza, well worth a sign-up.

In today's pod:

Who is coming for Ted Cruz's beer and why is he so angry about it?

Why do we get so bent of shape by so little?

Why did Jimmy Page & Robert Plant's post Led Zeppelin careers diverge so much?

Reaching the top of the mountain and finding nothing there.

Hyperbolic discounting: if we don't do some long-term thinking there won't be a long term.

Techocrats Vs visionaries

We all want to be heard but why should anyone listen

Being poor really sucks - and is really bad for your brain

Wind farms are beautiful.

A note of optimism

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You couldn't make it up

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The battle to be Trump's VP.

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Brace for another ECB policy mistake

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Rental crisis goes global. So does the bond crisis.

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Reminder: it's August

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Governments can't solve every problem.

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Can we change our minds?

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Did WW3 just start?

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Slowdown drums beat louder

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Will America survive a second Trump Presidency?

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Landings soft and hard

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If bankers want market salaries there needs to be more banks.

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Where will Wagner go next? Poland?

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Voters don't like paying for climate mitigation. Make the alternatives cheaper!

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IS the UK a developing economy?

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Why is UK inflation orders of magnitude more than anywhere else?

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Confused? You will be.

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Make Irish yoghurt great again.

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Zero GDP growth and a booming economy?

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Does the IMF really think corporate profits are responsible for inflation?

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