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The President’s Inbox

The President’s Inbox

Council on Foreign Relations

Each episode of The President’s Inbox explores a foreign policy challenge facing the United States.

576 - The Spillover: Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?
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  • 576 - The Spillover: Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?

    Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.    Hosts:    Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:    Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)   We discuss: How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events. The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture. Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling. As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?” The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and insider bets. An anecdote from France, where someone allegedly tampered with a weather sensor to manipulate the outcome of a prediction market bet. How governments and regulators are struggling to keep up. Whether these markets truly reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or just loud, well-funded players.   Mentioned on the Episode:    Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board   “The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution    Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation   Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

    Wed, 06 May 2026
  • 575 - How to Build an American Foreign Policy, With Michael Mandelbaum

    This episode unpacks three enduring pillars that have defined U.S. foreign policy from the nation’s founding to today: ideology, economic statecraft, and democratic accountability.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Michael Mandelbaum, Professor Emeritus of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Author, The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy   We Discuss: Whether the United States can be said to have a coherent foreign policy "personality". How geographic and geopolitical advantages have historically enabled a more ideological U.S. foreign policy than most countries can afford. Whether ideology in U.S. foreign policy represents genuine conviction or merely a veneer for self-interest.  What the post-Cold War era reveals as the "golden age of foreign policy of ideas”. What drives the persistent American tendency toward economic statecraft, sanctions, and “mirror imaging”. How public opinion, interest groups, political parties, and elections influence foreign policy decisionmaking. Whether President Trump's foreign policy fits within—or represents a departure from—the three enduring American traditions in U.S. foreign policy.   Mentioned on the Episode:   The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy by Michael Mandelbaum (Oxford University Press, 2025)   Embargo Act of 1807   George W. Bush, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 2005   Vice President JD Vance, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2025   Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/how-to-build-an-american-foreign-policy   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

    Wed, 29 Apr 2026
  • 574 - America at 250: The Spanish-American War, With H.W. Brands

    This episode unpacks the causes, key events, and consequences of the Spanish-American War, highlighting how it shaped U.S. foreign policy into the modern era.    To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: H.W. Brands, Jack S. Blanton Sr. Chair in History, The University of Texas at Austin   We Discuss: What drove the United States toward assertive foreign policy in the 1890s. Who the "jingoes" were and how American leaders pushed for American power abroad. Whether access to China drove American interest in Spain's Pacific empire. Why the USS Maine explosion changed the political calculus for entering a war with Spain. What the Teller Amendment accomplished and what its drafters failed to anticipate. Whether the annexation of the Philippines was ultimately the least-bad option for the Filipino people. What the Spanish-American War's legacy reveals about how the United States became—and chose to remain—a global power.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Monroe Doctrine, December 2, 1823 McKinley's First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1897 Theodore Roosevelt, Naval War College Address, June 2, 1897 The Teller Amendment, April 19, 1898   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-at-250-the-spanish-american-war   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

    Wed, 22 Apr 2026
  • 573 - What Comes Next After Failed U.S.-Iran Talks, With Elliott Abrams

    This episode unpacks the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad and the prospect of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR   We Discuss: What transpired during the U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad. Whether both sides abandoned their own preconditions before talks began. How unusually senior and small the negotiating delegations were. What the logic and mechanics of the U.S. naval blockade are. Why other countries have not joined the blockade and may resist it. What the Arab Gulf states are privately urging Washington to do. Whether Israel and the U.S. share the same goals regarding the Iranian regime.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026   Harry Sekulich and Kate Whannel, "Starmer Says UK Will Not Join Trump's Blockade of Iran's Ports," BBC   Defense Technical Information Agency, "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," October 1, 2007   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-comes-next-after-failed-us-iran-talks   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

    Wed, 15 Apr 2026
  • 572 - Russia’s Stakes in the Iran War, With Thomas Graham

    This episode unpacks the opportunities and risks Moscow is facing amid the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow, CFR   We Discuss: Whether Russia and Iran are true allies, or simply friends of convenience. How decades of rivalry and recent convergence shaped the current Moscow-Tehran relationship. Why Russia's strategic partnership with Iran excludes a mutual defense obligation. What role Russian intelligence sharing may be playing on the Middle East battlefield. How rising oil prices help Russia in the short term but carry serious long-term economic risks. Whether keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed serves Moscow's interest. How Operation Epic Fury has stalled peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, and complicated weapons supply to Kyiv.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015   Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, January 17, 2025   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/russias-stakes-in-the-iran-war   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

    Wed, 08 Apr 2026
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