UBS On-Air: Market Moves

State credit remains one of the strongest parts of the municipal bond market - Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an overview of recent developments across the US State-sector. Jeannine outlines the condition of state credit quality, revenue and expense trends, how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act stands to shape state budget choices, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets seem focused on AI, but some of the details in yesterday’s stronger US consumer price inflation data matter. Groceries and electricity prices continue to rise noticeably, and have a strong influence over inflation perceptions and affordability. Affordability concerns have not noticeably changed consumer behavior so far, but they might in future. Rising electricity prices may bolster popular resistance to data centers.

The political implications of Brazil’s Presidential and the US midterm election outcomes are significant, however for investors, the bigger question is whether these results actually change the underlying economic and geopolitical forces driving markets. Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, discusses whether investors should be making changes to their portfolios following these two consequential elections. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US October consumer price inflation is due. The element of guesswork in calculating inflation has risen recently. That is compounded by the absence of data from October 2025 to use in comparison (the legacy of the 2025 government shutdown is still felt). Consumers are likely to perceive inflation as being higher than reported, given the undue importance placed on high-frequency purchases.

The expression “there are decades where nothing happens and weeks when decades happen” has often been invoked in recent years, and it could easily apply to last week given the outcome of the US midterm elections. However, it was also a big week in financial markets, albeit for negative reasons, because investors grew increasingly nervous about the AI trade due to concerns about regulatory slowdowns to new data centers. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the recent market movement, what it means for the investment outlook, and how to position your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The weekend has demonstrated that US policy uncertainty is likely to continue. On immigration and Iran there were contradictory signals, and the confusion about the White House press secretary demonstrates a general assumption of few conventional boundaries to the administration’s decisions. This uncertainty matters to expectations about the oil price, and also to firms attempting to take strategic longer term decisions.

The scale of AI investment is raising three critical questions: how quickly revenues can justify the infrastructure build-out, whether those revenues can translate into sustainable profits, and who will ultimately capture them. This episode explores the constraints that could shape AI's growth trajectory, the economics of intelligence, and what the evolving competitive landscape could mean for investors.

Following CIO’s recent upgrade of the Preferred Securities sector to Attractive, Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to explain the positioning rationale against the current rate environment. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets have reassessed what the shifting US political landscape means for the shiny new toy of artificial intelligence. This does not mean much economically—households are not likely to change consumption patterns because the Nasdaq had a bad day. Data-center builders might have to offer more “inducements” to local communities, raising project costs. Such “inducements” are economically positive—building a school generates economic activity.

In the wake of this week’s US midterm election outcome, Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins for timely reflections on this week’s notable market swings, and guidance on how to position your portfolio. We also cover the implications of the election outcome to the landscapes for financing and deal-making, along with the progression of AI-buildout. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard shares his thoughts on how and to what extent an array of factors - the US midterm elections, the recent global technology sector correction, bond markets, ongoing geopolitical developments, and a recent crypto heist - are weighing on minds of investors. Burkhard then goes on to reinforce why in today’s environment, it’s important to stick to your strategy, stay diversified, and not let the news make your decisions for you.

Markets responded positively to the US midterm election results. Expectations of policy gridlock do not solve the unsustainable US fiscal position but reduce politicians’ ability to inflict further fiscal damage. US Vice President Vance blamed Republican losses on the Gulf war. That, amplified by the optimism bias, shifted expectations of a US retreat and allowed oil prices to fall.

In the wake of Election Day, Kurt and Shane join to assess the outcomes of Congressional and Gubernatorial races across the US and the implications of them to the domestic and foreign policy landscape, the macroeconomic environment, the road ahead for AI-buildout, and financial markets. Plus, a review of CIO’s positioning recommendations and messaging as we look ahead to 2027. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor from Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Democrats have decisively won the midterm elections. State results will matter to investors because data center decisions often take place at a state level and some Democrat governors are publicly opposed. At the very least, data center builders are likely to have to offer more incentives to local communities.

Amir Vardi, Portfolio Manager and Head of Structured Credit along with Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management from the UBS Asset Management Credit Investments Group, discuss positioning considerations within the broader credit landscape.

Markets' optimism bias has been revived, with news that the Iranian government has been granted powers to negotiate with the US. The US midterms are a complication; but on the assumption that some in the administration might attempt a post-2028 political career, a US attempt to tackle the affordability crisis seems warranted.

In part two of a two part mini-podcast series, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an assessment of AI’s effects on US economic activity and productivity. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Friday's market moves are attention grabbing, but economically more muted. The crypto gyrations are speculation, with little real world relevance (beyond the alleged boost to North Korea's GDP). The technology moves reflected concerns in one sector rather than signaling a general economic crisis. US consumer behavior has followed a broadly similar pattern to that of other consumers less obviously exposed to technology equities.

AI disruption is leading investors to look beyond the technology leaders themselves and rethink quality in an AI-driven market. This episode explores why businesses built around essential human needs, physical infrastructure, and durable barriers to entry may offer a resilient complement to AI exposure.

Shane drops by to outline the closing messages of Congressional and Gubernatorial candidates with just days to go before Election Day, along with an assessment of current polling. Plus, a look at the Pentagon’s plans to update the continuity and operational resilience strategy of military bases across the US. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

European Central Bank President Lagarde's decision to resign early (perhaps to spend more time doing book tours) was not unexpected, even if the timing was uncertain. The succession process is driven by political horse trading, not tests of competence.

Following this week’s FOMC policy meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to share timely reflections and CIO’s outlook for monetary policy. We also touch on the Q3 US GDP print, and take a health-check on the overall US economy ahead of Election Day. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard shares takeaways from a recent visit to the Gulf States and highlights how governance continues to attract investments, technology, connectivity, and more (despite recent geopolitical disruptions). Burkhard then takes us to Europe to outline why a structural investment case exists (though not where you might expect). Plus, a review of factors that support continued strong performance across European markets.

There were no surprises from the US monetary policy decision. At the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh signaled a desire to reduce the number of policy meetings in 2027—less policy flexibility at a time of economic and political turmoil is an interesting choice. The way is still open for further rate increases.

A look at what has been driving markets, how the outlook is evolving, and the key opportunities and risks investors should be thinking about looking ahead. Featured are Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist at UBS Asset Management.

With global data center power demand expected to rise considerably over the next few decades, we explore the scale of anticipated global demand and the scope of energy resources that will contribute to demand fulfillment. We also touch on investment considerations around this theme, along with the risks to be mindful of. Tyler Rosenlicht is a Portfolio Manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and serves as Head of Natural Resource Equities at Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are expecting no change in US monetary policy today. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s communication style does not lend itself to offering clarity as to the policy outlook, either.

A wide-ranging conversation on the implications of the current macro environment and higher yields to fixed income return and positioning, including thoughts on widening credit spreads, implications of US corporate debt maturity, volume of AI bond supply, and other risk considerations. Lotfi Karoui, Managing Director, Multi-Asset Strategist, and Head of Client Solutions and Analytics at PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In part one of a two part mini-podcast series, Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an overview of the most pertinent questions heard from clients and investors as it relates to the impacts of AI to the US economy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets may be becalmed in anticipation of tomorrow’s US monetary policy decision. However, the meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and investors are skeptical that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will offer any useful insights at the press conference. Insight may come with subsequent remarks by those markets regard as the Fed’s intellectual leaders.

Markets continue to weigh the cost of and potential returns of AI-buildout, the path forward for interest rates, Q3 corporate earnings, and the quickly approaching US midterm elections. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to assess this range of factors, along with shares the latest positioning recommendations and messaging per the latest UBS House View update. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ optimism bias has been given some life by news that Iran and Saudi Arabia are to hold talks, with Pakistan and Turkey mediating. Oil prices have dropped a little on the news. US President Trump also made comments on Iran but investors give less weight to these. US retail diesel prices keep rising and gasoline prices have stopped falling, which is assumed to constrain Trump’s ability to act.

The AI boom is being financed very differently on each side of the market. This episode examines the contrasting funding models behind AI supply and demand, the role of private capital in sustaining compute consumption, and the implications for investors as spending continues to expand.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the factors that are driving equity markets, including oil prices, AI, Fed monetary policy, Q3 corporate earnings, and the upcoming US midterm election. Plus, an outlook for equities into year-end, and the latest positioning views. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Technology sector equity movements are attracting attention, but economists retain an appropriate degree of aloofness. The pattern of consumers reducing savings to finance consumption has been fairly universal across advanced economies. Wealth effects from the technology sector have not been as universal. As wealth effects are meaningless without changes of behavior to translate them into real economic action, the global similarities of behavior hint at consumers having a muted dependence on rising equity markets.

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Shane drops by to share an assessment of how key Congressional races across the country are shaping up (and where donors are applying resources). We also cover recent reports of renewed trilateral talks amongst the US, Ukraine, Russia to end the conflict. Plus, a look at a new program initiative by the White House to identify and combat fraud. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices continue to drift higher. US retail diesel prices are still near all-time highs, with no sign of mitigation from US administration policies. The news that the US is asking some of its diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia is not necessarily a positive signal about regional stability. Consumers should continue to consume despite the energy costs for the remainder of this year. Next year is when risks increase.

A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A wide-ranging conversation on the implications of the current macro environment and higher yields to fixed income return and positioning, including thoughts around where pockets of opportunity and concern exist. Featured are Lindsay Rosner, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Sector Investing within Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM)’s Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions business, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices rose above USD110 per barrel. Markets and politicians focus on round numbers, so while a small price increase is not directly important, the move does have potential consequences. The US administration is very sensitive to higher oil prices, and US retail diesel prices remain near their all-time highs. Investors’ concerns will likely focus on whether this will produce US concessions to Iran, or more aggressive central bank action.

AI concerns weakened Asian equity markets, after a data centre’s market launch performed poorly. The fact that one company had such a broad reaction might indicate a degree of investor nervousness. Economists are less concerned—economic wealth effects from the AI story seem modest, and a slowing of real world AI investment might benefit other sectors of the economy.

Despite Q3 corporate earnings results rolling in, investors over the past week have seemed more focused on the sustainability of the AI trade and cost of funding. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the factors that are driving investor sentiment, along with what the inflation and retail sales data reveals about the current macro environment. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Rising interest rates are testing the balance sheets of highly levered AI infrastructure providers, but are they weakening the underlying demand for compute? This episode separates financing risk from demand growth and examines why compute pricing remains a critical signal for cloud infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.

China’s officially reported third quarter GDP growth was 4.5% y/y. That means that this year’s officially reported growth is likely to hit the officially set growth target. However, despite a stronger September China retail sales number, the domestic economy remains lackluster. Exports remain the growth driver. China has been fortunate that US companies have been adept at avoiding some tariffs, though ongoing economic nationalism (a form of scapegoat economics) threatens this pattern of growth.

Following what was a challenging quarter for fixed income investors, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on Q3 performance drivers, and shares a performance outlook. We also discuss CIO’s current positioning recommendations across the asset class. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Europe’s government bond markets have faced growing pressure from higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and increased scrutiny of public finances. The gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields recently reached its widest level since the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis as investors focused on France’s deficit and borrowing trajectory. Could the strains spread across the Eurozone, and where is the volatility creating opportunities? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Christopher Swann speaks with Frederick Mellors, Head of Global Fixed Income, about the growing divide between European sovereign borrowers, the European Central Bank’s policy dilemma, and the case for selectivity across government and corporate bonds.

US monetary policy is in focus, with Federal Reserve Chair Warsh refusing to give forward guidance on policy at the IMF meetings—then giving forward guidance of a sort. Warsh failed to sound hawkish. The word of Warsh carries relatively little weight, but this chimes with Fed President William’s earlier remarks. Expectations for an October rate increase are fading.

On this week’s episode, Burkhard acknowledges the fourth anniversary of the current bull market and weighs whether equities have further room to run, mindful of the impacts to the recent increase in the cost of capital. Burkhard also underscores the importance of corporate earnings to the health of an economy.

The US inflation print underscored some established trends. While consumer price inflation has a large fantasy component to it, it seems fairly clear that real incomes have stagnated since January 2025. That means that increases in spending depend on people getting side-hustle employment, being willing to cut savings rates, or being prepared to use their stock of savings. Today’s retail sales data is another signal of how willing consumers are to utilize savings.

Steve joins Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, an exchange of views on portfolio positioning. Steve Chiavarone is Chief Investment Officer for Global Equities at Federated Hermes, and is a member of the UBS Research Advisory Board. Jason Draho is Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s September inflation data was not especially exciting. Food prices kept the consumer price inflation figures moderate (food is nearly 30% of China’s consumer price basket). China is not a noted food exporter, so this has little global bearing. China’s consumers are not responding to low inflation with much enthusiasm.

This edition of UBS Election Watch looks beyond Washington precisely because that is usually where most of the attention is focused during midterm elections. Often overlooked is the impact of US elections on other countries and the impact of state and local elections on US policy. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors with Governmental Affairs US, discuss the scope of impact, along with the latest outcome scenarios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chip manufacturers have been experiencing equity price volatility after Broadcom’s chief executive drew “casino” parallels. (US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent has already demonstrated the danger of making that analogy). The global economic impact of this noise is not that significant—although it may matter for the South Korean and Taiwanese economies.

Following what was a relatively quiet week for investors, the weeks ahead promise to deliver much for investors to digest - spanning Q3 corporate earnings, September inflation and retail sales data, and more. All of this while risk factors such as higher rates and oil prices remain top of mind for investors. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses these factors and how to think about positioning your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A lot happened around the oil market: US president Trump announced a deal with Russian President Putin to buy Russian diesel; the Houthis attacked Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia; Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine; Russia subsequently attacked Ukraine energy facilities; the US reportedly threatened to stop arms sales to Ukraine if they attacked Russian energy facilities.

Over the past few years, markets have looked beyond a shifting economic backdrop and focused on the prospect of exceptional earnings growth. This episode explores why AI investment has become a key driver of corporate profits, how private capital is fueling demand for compute, and whether the current earnings outlook can be sustained.

Marc Lipschultz is Co-Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital and a member of the firm’s board of directors. Marc drops by the 1285 podcast studio to share his perspective on how the landscape for private credit has evolved throughout the course of 2026. We also discuss where Blue Owl is finding opportunities across Real Assets, including within digital infrastructure. Plus, thoughts on the kinds of roles that a financial advisor should fulfill in the ‘era of the advisor’. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As the U.S. midterm elections are quickly approaching, Shane identifies the Senate races that he is closely watching, and what polling is currently pointing to. With the U.S. Supreme Court now back in session, we also review some notable cases on the docket. Plus, a look at how U.S. officials have been responding to reported public health concerns in Siberia. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s social media account declared the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Other actors in the war may launch attacks. The post does reveal the concern about the political costs of the war, and rekindled some of the optimism bias in markets. However, the political costs presumably shift after the midterms.

Derek Pines is a Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Bramshill Investments. Derek joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.

Crude oil prices and diesel prices are up (there seems to be uncertainty about whether last Friday’s pledge to release diesel reserves is actually just confirming previously announced reserve releases). Bonds and equities do not like this. Central banks have pretended that they can do something about oil prices, which worries investors. If central banks want to offset inflation from an oil shock, they need to create a recession (or near recession) in the non-oil economy via aggressively restrictive policy. That does not favor bonds or equities.

With the next Fed policy meeting just a few weeks away, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share CIO’s expectations and the factors that will likely inform the central bank’s policy decision. We also cover the health of the US labor market, GDP picture, and the latest on inflation. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The political costs of the Gulf war are evident—US President Trump suggested removing the federal tax on gasoline. Gasoline prices (unlike diesel) feed directly into US consumer price calculations. However, even supposing Congress was in session long enough to pass the legislation, a less than 19% reduction per US gallon has to be considered against a price increase of over USD 1.25 since the war began. But sensitivity to the political cost may encourage optimism about US attitudes toward a deal with Iran.

A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, issuance implications, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing, recorded at the PIMCO studios in Newport Beach, California. Featured are Mike Cudzil, Managing Director and Generalist Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors and the Fed got a dose of relatively good economic data last week, yet interest rates rose again. Rising yields remains a dominant market story, however with a light calendar for economic data this week, and Q3 earnings season starting next week, macro might take a back seat in the near-term. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the current environment and how to position accordingly. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report offered few reliable facts for investors, other than the reminder that data is revised a lot. If markets listened to economists with the reverence they deserve, that would not be a surprise. Markets were surprised—revisions suggest a weaker employment position. The sense of an affordability crisis is likely to be reinforced—wage growth after adjusting for inflation is near zero, and after adjusting for inflation perceptions is probably negative.

As long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades and today's AI investment boom draws comparisons with the internet buildout, the 1999 cycle increasingly offers a useful point of reference. This episode explores the parallels and key differences between the two periods, and examines what rising term premiums and fiscal dynamics could mean for rates and portfolio positioning.

Housing affordability is under pressure across many major cities. Yet the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 shows that housing markets are following increasingly different paths as accumulated financial wealth supports demand in prime residential segments. Is wealth overtaking income as a driver of demand? And how is that reshaping housing risk? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Belinda Ulander speaks with the index’s co-authors, Matthias Holzhey and Maciej Skoczek, about Zurich’s position at the top of the ranking, diverging trends across Europe, and the importance of selectivity for investors.

The US employment report has a wide range of estimates around the payrolls data. This is not surprising—labor market data precision is challenged by low response rates and structural changes in the way people work. The general expectation is for an OK report with stable unemployment.

Xingchen Yu, Senior Investment Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares reflections from his latest trip to China, where AI ambition and seamless digital convenience coexist with cautious consumers, fierce competition, and lingering property pressures. Through stories from the ground, he explores an economy moving at two speeds, and what the latest Trump-Xi summit means for a relationship defined by both engagement and strategic competition. Reference Xingchen’s recent blog: Reflections on my latest trip to China, two years on. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The important point from yesterday’s US data was not the larger-than-expected downward pressures on reported inflation—these are technical changes that US consumers do not experience in their daily struggles with the affordability crisis. The important point was savings. Lowering savings rates are how US consumers keep spending. The savings rate level was revised higher. This suggests savings can pay for tariffs and oil prices for longer.

UK second quarter GDP was revised stronger, as new methods reveal how much new economic activity has been missed from the data. Rising real disposable incomes encouraged a rise in the UK household savings rate. If the Gulf war does not, in fact, turn into a forever war and oil prices come down, the impact on real disposable incomes should be positive; but that would probably then be used to rebuild savings rates rather than accelerate spending.

The rise in treasury yields continues to be top of mind for investors - Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, explains why they’re rising. We also touch on an outlook for oil prices, new developments in agentic AI, and what it all means for your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Bond yields and oil prices continue their close relationship. Central banks are supposed to look through an oil price shock as being beyond their control. However, if central banks seemingly care about oil, the only policy remedy is to weaken the non-oil economy, as something they can control. In that case, higher oil prices make it more likely interest rates will have to rise to recession-inducing levels. We are not at that stage, but there are enough oil price comments to have markets contemplating more repressive monetary policies.

Following what was a busy week in both New York and Washington DC, Shane drops by to share some takeaways and reflections on the UN General Assembly, along with the three-day summit involving President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. Plus, a look at legislative priorities of the US Senate ahead of the midterm elections. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of the September FOMC rate-hike, we discuss the implications of a Fed hiking cycle to emerging market assets, including equities and fixed income. We also cover the risks to emerging markets that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China and the US agreed to lower tariffs on USD 30bn of each other’s products. China’s consumers will pay lower taxes when buying camels from the US. US anglers face lower taxes when buying fishhooks from China. The amounts involved are small—USD 30bn represents around two months of the tariff avoidance implied by a comparison of US and China trade data.

AI is advancing quickly, but turning that progress into profits depends on more than better models, with infrastructure availability and business adoption increasingly shaping the investment outlook. This episode explores why strong demand alone may not determine the leaders, how bottlenecks could redirect spending, and where we see the largest opportunities across compute, power, and applications.

A fireside chat featuring Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital, hosted by Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Head of Investment Management, which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts on the US economy, the Fed, and positioning across asset classes.

On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Uganda and Ghana as he shares how economic and business development and investment is influencing Accra’s rapidly evolving landscape.

US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent faces something of a housing problem. Despite Bessent’s efforts, US mortgage rates rose above 7% yesterday. The exact level is not important (except to the media, ever enraptured by round numbers). The increase erodes the spending power of new homeowners—and critically does so in a way that real income data does not capture. Inflation figures use a fictional housing cost measure, which hides the damage higher mortgage rates might do.

US 10-year Treasury bond yields moved sharply above 5%, and the USDJPY exchange rate is back above 158. US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent seems to be demonstrating the house does not always win. For Gen Z bond traders, a 0.15-percentage point rise in yields is scary. For Gen X bond traders, it is mild. A variety of concerns came together to worry the markets.

Markets have not fully regained their earlier optimism bias, but are a little more cheerful. Yesterday, US President Trump signed an agreement essentially reaffirming the status quo with Greenland and Denmark—but spun it as change. Could a similar course be pursued with Iran? Trump’s UN speech was aggressive but both the US and Iranian regimes make frequent use of hyperbole. After the speech, there was playground diplomacy, with Qatar shuttling between the US and Iran carrying notes.

Open enrollment season is right around the corner, and for many employees, that means making decisions about healthcare, insurance, retirement savings, and other workplace benefits. But how much thought should we really put into those decisions each year? Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Head of UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions, both with the UBS Chief Investment Office Global Investment Management team, walk you through these considerations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This month’s episode focuses on investing in global transitions, bringing together experts from UBS Global Wealth Management and AGF. Featured are Melissa Amler, Senior Sustainable & Impact Investing Platform Specialist with UBS Global Wealth Management, along with Martin Grosskopf, Portfolio Manager and Director Sustainable Investing at AGF.

Gulf states, meeting on the fringes of the United Nations gathering, have suggested peace talks between Iran and the US are not progressing. Markets are not, perhaps, too surprised to learn this. The Gulf states are indicating a long-term desire to cooperate with Iran and provide mutual security in the region. Such independence is important, as it might change the recycling of Gulf petrodollars into US-focused military procurement. That would have market implications.

With one source of uncertainty having been removed in the near-term, following last week’s Fed rate hike, there remain other risk factors on the minds of investors. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, outlines those risks, shares an outlook for monetary policy, and reviews the latest positioning recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Letty Zemaitis, Frank Sileo, Sudip Mukherjee, Barry McAlinden & Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

US average diesel prices broke above USD 6.50 per US gallon for the first time ever. Since January 2025, overall price levels (measured by the consumer price index) are up 4.8%, with motor fuel prices up 17.0%, feeding perceptions of an affordability crisis. US President Trump indicated a willingness to meet with Iranian President Pezeshkian. The rhetoric from both sides remains negative. The US agreement with Denmark on Greenland might be a positive (reframing an existing agreement could be a useful precedent), but limited trust between the US and Iran complicates things.

AI is giving robots new capabilities and attracting larger funding rounds, but rapid progress is also making tomorrow's leaders harder to identify. This episode draws on observations from Silicon Valley to explore the investment opportunities and disruption AI is creating, and the case for physical assets, cybersecurity, and diversification in portfolios.

A monthly discussion around the drivers behind equity market performance, along with the review of notable equity themes, positioning preferences, and a performance outlook. Featured are Jeff Hans, Portfolio Manager, Private Client US Equity, and Dominic Schagar, Investment Specialist, Active Equities with UBS Asset Management.

Amidst growing concerns over AI safety, Shane shares how the topic is currently being discussed and debated amongst Washington lawmakers. We also highlight the recent passage of the Sanctioning Russia Act, along with the list of Congressional focuses and priorities to be revisited by lawmakers post the November midterm elections. Featured Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the September FOMC meeting outcome and implications of higher rates to US equity markets, shares thoughts around AI adoption and progression amidst recent AI safety concerns, how to think about the US midterm elections as an equity investor, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan raised rates, as expected. The decision was not unanimous, causing a modest market reaction. The yen has weakened—yelling “house” like a grandmother in a bingo parlor does not offset fundamental market pricing. August inflation was a little lower than expected (helped by government influenced prices). The BoJ wants neutral interest rates, and another rate increase may follow.

Following this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share takeaways and reflections on the meeting outcome, along with the implications of the rate hike to US economy activity. We also discuss the current inflationary environment, labor market and how the markets have digested the rate hike. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s unanimous vote in favor of a US interest rate increase could be interpreted as defiance against political interference. Having raised once, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise again—to prove this rate increase was intentional and not a mistake (even if it was a mistake). The rate increase has no near-term impact on inflation or economic growth.

A look into the interplay and market dynamics of large government debt issuance and AI-related debt fundraising, factors that have been contributing to rising long-end yields, along with positioning preferences within the asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After the pandemic, the world’s central banks were subject to a series of unfortunate events: supply chain disruption, a war in Ukraine, profit-led inflation, tariffs, and a war in the Gulf. These one-off events raised inflation, but (bar profit-led inflation) were beyond central bank control. But, when such events become a series, should central banks create deflation elsewhere to offset “one-off” events elsewhere?

As financial markets are back in full swing post the summer holidays, investors are weighing fresh inflation data, health of the labor market, rising oil prices, and a notable upcoming Fed policy meeting. Plus, recent concern over AI safety and implications to the AI trade. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investments Office, discusses these factors, what it all means for the investment outlook, and how to think about positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy