Moving Markets

Global bond yields moved higher once again as oil prices rallied following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, Chinese equities fell to their lowest level in a year amid fresh US restrictions on technology exports. In Europe, the financial sector remains firmly in focus as market speculation grows around a potential tie-up between UBS and another major bank. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest views on market leadership, the strongest-performing sectors, and the outlook for precious metals.

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US-China relations are back in the spotlight, with investors watching whether talks between Presidents Trump and Xi can deliver meaningful progress and shift market sentiment. The discussions come as Chinese markets contend with trade uncertainty, tentative policy support and a challenging domestic growth backdrop.

In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the Trump-Xi talks, the outlook for Chinese equities and property, and sentiment towards Chinese AI stocks. They also discuss the longer-term AI investment story and the impact of rising oil prices and interest rates on global markets.

Rising government bond yields remain at the centre of investors' attention as expectations for further rate hikes in the US and Europe continue to build. Combined with a renewed rally in oil prices, higher yields are weighing on risk appetite and limiting the upside for equity markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins us to share his views on the US dollar, precious metals, and the key market themes investors should be watching.

US Treasury yields surge the most since last year's tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? Bond yields surged globally as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations. US Treasury yields recorded their biggest jump since last year's tariff-related market turmoil, while Japan's 10-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. Brent oil moved back above USD 100 per barrel. The safe-haven USD was well bid, while European and US equities moved lower. Asian markets were mixed today, with Japan rising after a three-day holiday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses precious metals - from Fed policy to China's gold buying, he talks about what is likely to drive the gold and silver markets, and what is just noise.

The Nasdaq climbed to a fresh record as investors continued to back AI-related stocks, while oil prices fell on hopes of easing tensions between the US and Iran. In today's episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, share how last week's Fed rate hike has impacted their expectations for bond and equity markets, and discuss the key risks and opportunities investors are watching now.

Oil prices fell yesterday after President Trump said he would be open to meeting Iran’s leader this week. The accompanying enthusiasm carried over into both European and US bond and equity markets. And these were further boosted by positive headlines around Meta’s new AI Chatbot, Muse, boosting Meta’s share price by 11% in the session and powering a surge in the technology heavy hitters that helped the Nasdaq Composite close at a new record high. The upcoming summit between the US and China is now in focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s podcast and talks, amongst other things, about the impact of Chinese electric vehicles outside their home market. Tune in to hear more of his thoughts on the importance of electrification and the outlook for Future Mobility.

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Technology and semiconductor stocks started the week on a positive note, while oil prices fell as traders anticipated a recovery in Saudi shipments, despite continued geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Germany, pressure on the Japanese yen, and optimism ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, remain in focus. In today’s show, we discuss the latest developments across global markets and are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who examines the signals emerging from the US market, the state of investor sentiment and the technical outlook for information technology stocks

Equity markets in 2026 have delivered a volatile ride, with a strong rebound pushing most major indices into positive territory. But as investor focus narrows on AI and the so-called Magnificent Seven, where should attention shift for the remainder of the year—and what risks are hiding in plain sight?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, is joined by Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research at Julius Baer, for a deep dive into the drivers of equity market performance in 2026. They discuss regional and sector standouts, the breadth of earnings growth beyond mega cap technology stocks, and the implications of increasing market concentration. The conversation covers sector positioning—why financials, health care, and communications remain overweight—and explores the outlook for subsectors including retail banks, payment networks, pharma, biotech, MedTech, and telecom operators. Philipp also shares practical guidance on avoiding common equity investing mistakes as year-end approaches.

Markets rebounded after three tough sessions, fuelled by a reassuring Federal Reserve, easing yields, and falling oil prices. Julius Baer Chief Economist David Kohl breaks down what the latest Fed decision means for the US economy and shares his expectations for the Bank of Japan following its overnight rate hike. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, explores the implications for the US dollar and explains why gold continues to shine.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years. The accompanying projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish tilt. Markets responded by raising expectations for another rate hike by year-end, lifting the USD and short-term Treasury yields, while gold held up well. Equities weakened overall, although losses were relatively modest outside the Dow Jones. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses high oil, but even higher, diesel prices and why political interference is unlikely to derail the energy transition. Fixed income strategist, Afonso Borges, notes that bond markets have taken the Fed's communication mostly positively.

Rising oil prices and higher inflation concerns dominated markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the US 10-year yield breaching 5%, while government bond yields moved sharply higher across Europe and Asia. Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising rates, although energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rallied on supply disruption fears. In today's show, we discuss the key market drivers ahead of the Fed meeting and are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who explains the latest changes to Swiss equity indices and examines what the recent rise in bond yields could mean for equity investors.

Oil prices and global bond yields continued their ascent on Monday and the US 10-year treasury yield has hit the 5.02% this morning - a level not seen since 2007. Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. And with expectations amongst traders growing that this will just be the first hike in a cycle, Kevin Warsh's statement after the meeting will be even more closely scrutinised than normal. With AI headlines a key driver of global equity market in the last 24 hours, tune in to today's podcast to hear Next Generation research analyst Enrico Chinello's view on the unfolding situation and what it means for investors.

Markets are starting a pivotal week on the back foot, as AI-related stocks retreat following safety concerns raised by the chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investor sentiment has been further dampened by reports that OpenAI is not expected to go public this year. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving higher as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to a busy week for monetary policy, with markets bracing for interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on how much further oil prices could rise and where 10-year US Treasury yields may ultimately peak.

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As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end?

In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027.

US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microsoft's data centre expansion plans. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses the ECB’s hawkish message and key considerations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

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Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years. In today’s episode, we welcome Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team. He shares his perspective on the US Treasury’s somewhat underwhelming buyback announcement and explains why he believes many of the concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are already reflected in current market pricing.

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Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing inflation back into focus ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases later this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada intensified, while political uncertainty in Europe remained elevated following German state elections and continued debate over France’s fiscal outlook. In today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his views on the energy market and explains why global oil supply remains more resilient than many investors fear. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, about rising political fragmentation across Europe and what it means for equity investors.

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Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, and the result of Sunday's German state elections is weighing on sentiment in Europe. China bought the most gold in a month since 2023, and the Japanese yen is up to its strongest since February. Robust Chinese export growth comes ahead of ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit to the US this month. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets - not only what has driven their wild ride this year, but also what would be needed for them to recover more permanently.

Equity markets reacted to the August US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which surprised to the upside, leading traders to believe that a hike is now more likely from the Fed on 16 September. Treasury yields moved higher, and the Dow and the S&P 500 closed the day lower. The Nasdaq 100 however closed above the flatline on Friday as tech stocks received a boost from OpenAI. This optimism spread to Asian markets this morning, with tech stocks there in buoyant mood, despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, assesses rising Treasury yields and what investors should watch out for in the coming days, and also offers his technical view on the yen and Japanese equities after a remarkable week.

Strong earnings, improving shareholder returns, corporate reforms, and continued AI-related demand have reinforced the case for Japanese equities. But with a stronger yen and policy normalisation underway, can Japan's momentum continue?

In this episode, Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Investment Specialists at Julius Baer, speaks with Louis Chua, Equity Research Analyst Asia, about the latest earnings season, the outlook for AI and the Japanese yen, opportunities beyond technology, and the structural drivers underpinning their constructive view on Japanese equities.

Markets received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data in Switzerland and resilient activity across the eurozone. In the US, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped push Treasury yields lower and supported risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to their highest levels in weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In today’s show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen, gold and EUR/USD.

Equity markets found their footing as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent rise, while US economic data and Fed commentary reinforced a resilient growth outlook. The Fed's Beige Book pointed to continued expansion, albeit with persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on sentiment in Europe, while the yen strengthened on expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold gained after days of weakness on a weaker USD, and Asian equities were somewhat supported by renewed optimism around AI-driven chip demand. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and whether oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the podcast to discuss the elevated yield levels, Kevin Warsh's messaging, and how he believes bond investors could best position themselves in the current environment.

Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will undoubtedly be Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research analyst, joins today’s podcast to talk about how intensifying competition in the AI space, particularly from lower-cost Chinese models, is driving AI token prices down, andwhat it all means for investors.

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Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief Economist David Kohl discusses the outlook for US interest rates and the implications for investors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his market perspectives and highlights the most compelling opportunities from a technical analysis standpoint.

With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Roman Frey, Head of CIO Office Global Fixed Income and voting member of the Fixed Income Investment Committee. Together, they explore why fixed income deserves a place in every portfolio, the importance of duration, credit risk, and liquidity, and how macroeconomic factors and central bank policy shape the opportunity set. The conversation covers the dynamics of the primary and secondary bond markets, the role of market technicals, and why short-dated bond strategies may offer a compelling alternative to cash and money market funds. Roman also discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve’s evolving communication style under Kevin Warsh, the practicalities of managing strategic cash, and why now may be a particularly attractive time to lock in yields.

NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid growing expectations of Bank of Japan tightening next month. Reports suggest Venezuela may leave OPEC, potentially weakening the organisation's influence. The focus today is on Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. What can we learn from past speeches by Fed presidents at Jackson Hole? Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the USD debasement trade and what he is seeing in markets amid widespread claims surrounding the theme.

Markets traded largely sideways ahead of the earnings release from NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation. After the US market close, the company once again exceeded expectations, delivering stronger-than-anticipated guidance and sending its shares more than 4% higher in after-hours trading. Elsewhere, US inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, prompting a modest rise in Treasury yields. In today’s episode, we welcome Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to discuss the outlook for the copper market, the key forces shaping supply and demand, and where prices could be heading next.

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Markets found their footing yesterday despite an intensification of US sanctions on Iran, as traders focused on the shift towards economic rather than military pressure and the resulting decline in oil prices. Equity markets generally moved higher, led by gains in technology shares, while Germany’s stronger-than-expected economic growth figures added to the constructive backdrop. Attention now turns to today’s US inflation data and Nvidia’s earnings report, two events that could shape the market direction in the days ahead. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on Treasury buybacks, fiscal policy and the outlook for US yields and the US dollar, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, assesses whether recent moves in bond markets are beginning to influence equity valuations.

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Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended Monday's trading session lower as chip stocks faltered, while the Dow Jones gained 0.25% on the day. It was a similar story in Asia this morning as investors digested the potential ramifications of 'Operation Economic Outcast', while awaiting not only Nvidia's and Marvell Technology's results and US PCE data tomorrow, but also a highly anticipated speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole this Friday.

Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to provide his take on the good news last week from the Moderna/Merck cancer trials. Tune in to the podcast to find out why he believes that innovation-driven healthcare remains one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities.

Stronger-than-expected US PMI data could not save equities from a down week as rising bond yields and the Treasury's bond-buying intervention renewed dollar debasement fears, fuelling a blistering rally in gold and Bitcoin. Trade tensions returned as US-Canada talks collapsed over the weekend, and investors brace for a pivotal week featuring NVIDIA earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, looks at the recent US dollar weakness from a technical perspective and what it means for other asset classes.

The Q2 earnings season delivered a strong set of results, with positive surprises across sectors and regions. As investors look ahead to the remainder of the year, the broadening of earnings growth and market participation is creating opportunities beyond the dominant AI and technology themes.

In this episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the key takeaways from the Q2 earnings season. They explore sector performance, forward guidance provided by companies, the ongoing strength of the AI investment cycle, and the implications of increased competition and monetisation in AI. The conversation also covers the importance of diversification, and how investors can position portfolios for a broader and potentially more volatile market environment into year end.

Markets largely dipped yesterday as geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and disappointing guidance from Walmart weighed on investor sentiment. After yields fell on Wednesday following the announcement from the US Treasury of doubling buybacks of longer-term debt, yesterday they resumed their upward trend, even after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested further increases to the buyback programme. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to talk about the impact of the Treasury’s announcement on the US dollar, and he also shares his latest thoughts on precious metals.

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The US Treasury provided a boost to bond and equity markets yesterday, announcing that it will more than double repurchases of 10, 20, and 30-year debt in the next few months. This saw the long bond yield fall 10 bps from its 19-year high on Tuesday, to 5.184%. Gold had its best day since March. US stock markets also closed up on the day with Moderna and Merck providing a boost. Asian equity markets continued the rally overnight and the KOSPI leapt over 6% after SK Hynix announced a big stock buyback. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about gold and silver. Tune in to find out what he believes has been driving the August rally, and whether he thinks it can continue from here.

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A global bond sell-off sent yields to multi-year highs, dragging equities lower as tech stocks bore the brunt amid persistent inflation concerns. Yet Bank of America's fund manager survey reveals remarkably bullish positioning, with investors reducing cash and piling into equities on hopes of a soft landing and faith in the AI boom. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on the latest bond selloff and the drivers behind the move. We also speak with Nenad Dinic from our Equity Strategy Research team about European equities and where he sees opportunities in the region as we head into year end.

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Higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on equity markets, pushing global stocks lower at the start of the week. US Treasury yields remained in focus as strong corporate bond issuance added to concerns over US fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence remained a standout theme, with Anthropic's rapid growth boosting sentiment across the sector. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, takes a closer look at AI, noting that record investment by hyperscalers and institutional investors continues to support strong demand for AI infrastructure. Investors are increasingly focused on when that spending will translate into earnings and cash flow.

Global market performance was mixed last week, with Japanese equities emerging as the standout winner, driven by strong gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, oil prices surged around 6% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, and longer-term government bond yields moved higher despite softer-than-expected signals from US inflation and consumer data. In this episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest insights on the recent weakness in both the US dollar and the Swiss franc. He also explains why he remains constructive on precious metals and discusses the key market trends investors should be watching in the weeks ahead.

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With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape?

Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, on these latest developments in AI, as well as the broader market themes driving China and global markets — including the rotation back into value names, China’s growth outlook ahead of the fifth plenum, the new Renminbi government bond futures listing in Hong Kong, and the sharp rebound in gold and silver.

US equities continued their upward climb this week, supported by a series of encouraging inflation releases, while European stocks have taken a breather after hitting record highs earlier in the week. In fixed income markets, government bond yields moved lower as investors scaled back expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Joining us today is Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his latest outlook on the energy market and explains why he continues to expect oil prices to trend lower in the months ahead.

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The latest US inflation data came in in line with expectations and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both finished the day in positive territory yesterday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Earlier in Europe, equities eased as investors balanced earnings releases with ongoing geopolitical developments. Oil markets are weighing up the escalating tensions in the Middle East against softer global demand expectations from both OPEC and the IEA. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to share his thoughts on gold, the US dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Markets struggled for direction yesterday, with investors balancing geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a busy corporate news flow. US equities fell for a second straight session as technology shares came under pressure, while European stocks consolidated near record highs and Asian markets traded mixed overnight. With markets searching for direction, the spotlight now shifts to today's US inflation report, a release that could prove pivotal for interest-rate expectations and broader investor sentiment. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to discuss what the inflation figures mean for bond investors, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, provides an update on the earnings season.

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Eurozone growth expectations have improved, supported by a strong earnings season. Oil prices rose on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions, while OPEC output recovered in July. AI investment remained in focus, with Intel raising capital, Nvidia securing funding for AI infrastructure, and regulatory changes supporting additional financing channels. However, this did not support the Nasdaq, which edged lower on Monday. Gold and silver extended their rally from late last week, supported by rebounding gold ETF demand. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, discusses the state of AI infrastructure spending, arguing that it is not a bubble, while stressing that investors should focus more closely on valuations, earnings visibility and monetisation.

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Markets are starting the week on a strong footing. Softer US jobs data, falling bond yields, robust corporate earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's return to share buybacks have fuelled optimism among investors. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses what the latest signals mean for equities, the US dollar, gold, and silver, and why he believes key market trends still have room to run.

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Amid rising market volatility and a shift beyond the dominant AI-driven rally, investor interest is turning to hedge funds. In this episode, we examine the appeal of market-neutral, Asia-focused multi-manager hedge funds and how institutional investors are incorporating them into diversified portfolios to pursue resilient outcomes.

William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists for Asia and the Middle East at Julius Baer, sits down with Angus Wai, Founder, CEO and CIO of Polymer Capital Management, to discuss the evolution of the multi-manager model, the importance of risk management, and the opportunities he sees across Asia's dynamic investment landscape.

Three themes dominated markets yesterday: earnings, AI and macro risks. Strong results boosted stocks such as Deutsche Telekom and Diageo, while disappointments weighed on several industrial and technology names. AI remained a key driver, supporting China's trade data and attracting strong demand for Alphabet's USD 25 billion bond offering. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and bond yields as investors looked ahead to today's US payrolls report for clues on Fed policy. Damian Ng, Next Generation Research, explains why success in biotechnology increasingly depends on strong innovation ecosystems. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses gold's breakout attempt, the possibility of further JPY intervention, and why expectations for USD weakness may have become overly pessimistic.

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With changing sentiment around Middle East tensions and a busy earnings season driving market moves, the Dow Jones recorded its fifth consecutive gain yesterday and a third straight record close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both slipped, with the latter weighted down by declines in SpaceX and AMD, while European equities reached a fresh all-time high. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the show to discuss expectations for the US Federal Reserve and what it means for fixed income portfolios.

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Stocks are breaking records as investors double down on the AI trade. Strong earnings across sectors, easing geopolitical concerns and renewed risk appetite have pushed markets higher, but SpaceX's latest results reveal the growing price tag of the AI revolution. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides more details on the ongoing earnings season, the rotation shaping markets, and where he sees the most attractive opportunities in technology today.

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Markets were supported by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply lower and easing inflation concerns. Investors also digested a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention by Japan and the United States, while strong US manufacturing data pointed to continued resilience in the industrial sector. Equities advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with the Dow Jones reaching a record close and the STOXX 600 remaining near all-time highs. Meanwhile, company news included reports of potential merger talks between AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb, Visa's acquisition of cybersecurity firm BioCatch, and Alibaba's latest AI model launch. Joining us today is Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research, who discusses the scale of hyperscaler AI spending and whether the industry is starting to see a clear path towards monetising these investments.

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After a volatile week, global markets are starting the new trading session on a stronger footing. Investor sentiment improved overnight following reports that renewed US-Iran talks aimed at easing Middle East tensions could begin as early as today, sending oil prices down more than 5%. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is emerging as one of the day's standout performers, extending its gains against the US dollar after confirmed intervention efforts by both US and Japanese authorities. In today's episode, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his latest market insights, examining the technical outlook for the Japanese yen, Asian semiconductor stocks, and US Treasuries, and discussing what these trends could signal for investors in the weeks ahead.

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In just one week, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all chose to hold interest rates steady, yet none of the decisions were unanimous, and of course, the Fed's new Chair is now steering away from forward guidance altogether. With investors left to navigate rates without the usual signposts, what should they make of this week's decisions, and what comes next?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, to unpack the week's central bank decisions. They discuss why the Fed held rates despite markets anticipating a hike, the bond market volatility and dollar weakness that followed Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the outlook for Fed policy into year end. The conversation also covers the Bank of England's split vote and UK rate expectations amid a new political backdrop, as well as examining the Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates while signalling a more hawkish shift alongside yen intervention. Finally, David also offers his insights into why he believes that the ECB will not hike rates at their September meeting.

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US stocks staged a rally yesterday following Wednesday’s post-Fed sell-off. Microsoft and semiconductors definitely helped to drive the gains. And the pattern continued in Asia this morning with South Korea’s Kospi up 18% in its session. Central banks in the UK and Japan cemented a week of no moves – although their messaging about the future path of rates diverged. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins today’s podcast to share why he thinks interventions in currency markets are a waste of money and time and he also provides some useful insights into this week’s dollar and yen moves.

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Markets reacted sharply after a divided US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday. The decision triggered a notable steepening of the Treasury yield curve, with 2-year yields edging lower while 30-year yields moved materially higher. US equities also came under pressure, with major stock indices posting significant declines. However, sentiment improved after the closing bell when despite Meta disappointing investors with weaker profit results, Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected earnings. In today's episode, Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team unpacks the Fed's latest decision, explains the market reaction, and discusses what it could mean for investors in the months ahead.

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A sharp market rotation took centre stage on Tuesday as investors moved out of chipmakers and into healthcare and financial stocks, pushing both sectors to fresh record highs. Even blockbuster results from AI memory leader SK Hynix failed to ease concerns, extending the sell-off in semiconductor stocks ahead of a crucial week for Big Tech earnings. With the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision today, markets are bracing for the next major catalyst. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his expectations for the Fed’s decision and what it could mean for investors. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, for the latest insights into the Q2 earnings season.

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Markets are starting the week on a firmer footing as a pause in Middle East hostilities pushes oil prices lower and eases inflation concerns. The move follows a cautious week for investors, with concerns about AI spending, rising bond yields and escalating geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment. Most major US equity indices ended the week lower, while European equities proved relatively resilient and both Japanese and Chinese markets posted gains. Attention now turns to a pivotal week featuring the Federal Reserve's policy decision, key US economic releases, and earnings releases from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Joining us today is Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on market concentration in US equities, the importance of diversification and the recent pullback in momentum stocks.

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As Europe faces increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves, the implications extend far beyond discomfort. The rising temperatures are creating urgent challenges with regard to public health, economic resilience, and urban infrastructure. What does a warmer world mean for the way we live, work, and invest?

In this episode, Helen Freer is joined by Dr. Damien Ng, an analyst in Julius Baer’s Next Generation research team, to discuss how higher global temperatures are reshaping the risk landscape for populations and investors alike. The conversation explores how heatwaves are becoming a major public health concern, the mounting pressure on healthcare systems, and the economic impact of extreme heat. Dr. Ng also explains the concept of urban heat islands, and how innovations like sponge cities can help build resilience.

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Global equities traded lower as oil prices surged in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, while renewed concerns over AI-related capital expenditure weighed on investor sentiment. Although the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, expectations of further policy tightening later this year have strengthened, pushing bond yields higher across major markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets, and what they could mean for investors.

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Oil prices continue to surge as tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about global energy supplies and economic growth. There were knock-on effects in bond markets with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to a two-month high. Alphabet and Tesla were the first of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report earnings after the bell yesterday – both stocks fell in extended trading. At the European Central Bank meeting later today interest rates are expected to be held steady. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to provide an update on the Q2 earnings season so far and explains why the investment case for US banks remains.

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Markets faced a fresh wave of geopolitical risk as the conflict involving the US, Iran and the Houthis escalated, pushing oil prices higher. Yet equities remained resilient, with positive corporate earnings and strength in semiconductors helping offset investor concerns. Elsewhere, the US announced a 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian imports, Japan's yen weakened beyond 163 against the dollar despite intervention warnings, and competition intensified in the obesity drug market as Novo Nordisk sued Eli Lilly. Investors now await results from Alphabet and Tesla while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East. We are also joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss what to expect from tomorrow's ECB meeting and whether higher oil prices could prompt the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance.

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Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma Markets were relatively quiet yesterday, but developments in the UK drew investor attention. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's policy announcements sparked concerns over the fiscal outlook, sending gilt yields higher, while John Healey's appointment as Chancellor raised fresh questions about economic policy. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and oil prices swung sharply. Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team joins us to discuss why AI's impact on BioPharma is likely to unfold over the coming years, rather than quarters.

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Semiconductor stocks have plunged more than 20% from their recent highs, officially entering bear market territory after China’s Moonshot launched its Kimi K3 model sparking fears of intensifying global competition. Amid rising concerns over stretched valuations, geopolitical risks, and a critical earnings week ahead – including reports from Alphabet, SK Hynix, and Tesla – markets stand at a crossroads. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term uptrend of semiconductors remains intact despite the sell-off and what this means for broader equity markets.

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After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility.

In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the outlook for China's equity market following the recent AI sell-off. They discuss whether the correction has further to run, the prospects for a rotation into internet and other old economy names, and what recent economic data means for expectations around policy support in the second half of the year.

The conversation also explores the implications of a more hawkish US Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, and what this could mean for inflation expectations, interest rates and global asset prices. They also discuss the outlook for the renminbi amid strong export growth and China's expanding trade surplus.

This episode was originally recorded on 15 July 2026.

Equity markets weakened as continued losses in semiconductor stocks and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk sentiment, pushing major indices firmly into negative territory. At the same time, recent economic data highlighted the resilience of the US economy, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Meanwhile, Netflix shares came under pressure in after-hours trading after the company forecast slower revenue growth. In today’s episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins us to discuss the latest moves in gold and the British pound, what's driving these markets, and the key levels investors should keep on their radar.

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The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to address volatility linked to leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The US dollar stabilised after recent weakness and sterling rose to a one-year high. Meanwhile, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses why oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed regional tensions, why European natural gas prices remain elevated, and why gold has been largely unmoved by softer inflation data.

Yesterday’s release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street’s big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had two guest speakers on today’s podcast. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research highlights his key takeaway from the inflation report and outlines his expectations for Fed policy going forwards. And our equity strategist, Nenad Dinic, assesses those US bank earnings and provides some insights into what the early European earnings reports are revealing. Tune in to find out more!

Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s trade data surprised to the upside, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected, and the UK and Switzerland announced a new trade deal. On today’s show, we are joined by Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, to discuss quantum computing and discover whether or not it has reached its ChatGPT moment.

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Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes market leadership is unlikely to change despite recent volatility, and why he has upgraded Financials.

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With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Meier, Chief Currency Strategist, and Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to examine the implications of the UK’s political reset for currency and fixed income markets. The discussion covers why sterling has remained resilient despite leadership changes, the lessons learned from past fiscal policy missteps, and the structural factors shaping the UK’s economic outlook. The conversation also explores the drivers of UK gilt yields, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the outlook for Bank of England policy. Finally, the team discusses positioning in UK bonds, the relative appeal of UK assets, and the case for hedging FX risk.

As peace talks could be back on the table in the Middle East, global equity markets breathed a sigh of relief and investors snapped up tech stocks around the world. The Kospi retreated from bear market territory rallying more than 5%. And Japanese bonds, equities and the currency were boosted by comments from the country’s finance minister that the government wants to encourage its pension funds to invest more in domestic assets. Despite geopolitical risks having returned as a key driver of bond-market performance, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why investors should avoid this temporary market noise, and if necessary, take advantage of higher yield levels – especially in Europe – to ensure appropriate duration exposure within their portfolios.

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Market sentiment has weakened as renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. Spain’s benchmark equity index has come under additional pressure following President Trump’s threat to impose trade restrictions on the country. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the latest surge in oil prices, the broader implications for inflation and whether the move reflects a lasting shift in the outlook or merely a temporary disruption.

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Sharp semiconductor losses amid AI chip rivalry fears contrast with resilient broader markets, while escalating US-Iran tensions send oil surging 5%, highlighting growing jitters over geopolitics and inflation just as central banks signal rates may stay higher for longer. Investors will now focus on the upcoming earnings season for more guidance. Matthieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect. And Tim Gagie, Head of PB Sales (Geneva) FX & PM, talks about the British pound amid the political uncertainty in Britain and key levels to watch for gold.

US equities started the week strongly as AI-related stocks rebounded yesterday and the Dow Jones closed above 53,000 for the first time. Broadcom gained after extending its partnership with Apple, while Microsoft slipped following plans to cut jobs as it reallocates resources towards AI infrastructure. In Europe, most indices were down, although Germany’s DAX bucked the trend and reached a new record high, and EasyJet surged on takeover news. Asian markets today came under pressure, led by South Korea’s Kospi, where a trading halt was triggered when the index fell more than 8%. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the show to talk about El Niño and its potential economic consequences.

Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US listing, which could become the largest-ever foreign IPO. SpaceX is also in focus as the expiry of the analyst quiet period is expected to trigger a wave of research reports and price targets. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses, among other topics, why US equity market behaviour may be more reminiscent of 1998 than 2000.

As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the investability of the US market as it celebrates a major milestone. Together, they examine the historical drivers of US market leadership, from industrialisation to the current wave of artificial intelligence, and consider whether the region’s capitalist foundations and deep capital markets remain intact. The conversation covers the implications of high valuation multiples, the role of innovation cycles, the impact of market concentration, and the risks posed by political and economic shifts. Mark also shares his perspective on what could signal a regime change, and how investors should think about their US exposure in the context of global opportunities.

US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung Electronics. European marketsrose on Brent oil moving towards USD 70 per barrel, reduced rate-hike expectations by the Fed and new German growth measures. Asian equities outperformed, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks and encouraging economic data from China and Japan. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, talks about the USD, gold and his favourite commodity currencies, the AUD and CAD.

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Equity markets began the third quarter on a slightly subdued note, with semiconductor stocks coming under particular pressure. In contrast, Meta emerged as one of the standout performers yesterday, with its shares rallying on reports that the company is actively developing a cloud business aimed at selling AI computing power. Fixed income markets remained relatively calm as investors awaited one of the week’s key economic releases: the June US jobs report, due later today. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the potential implications of President Trump’s decision on copper duties and what it could mean for copper prices.

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Markets closed a volatile quarter with sharply lower oil and gold prices, while AI optimism continued to support equities on both sides of the Atlantic. European stocks posted their strongest quarter in over five years, and US markets remained resilient despite weakness in the ‘Magnificent Seven’. In today’s show, we also discuss easing eurozone inflation, strong US labour market data and key developments across Asia. In addition, our fixed income research analyst Eirini Tsekeridou joins us to explain why bond yields have remained elevated despite falling oil prices, and to discuss the impact of AI on fixed income markets.

After tensions rose again in the Middle East over the weekend, news yesterday that US envoys will travel to Doha for fresh talks with Iran today allowed markets room to rally. The Dow Jones, which now includes Alphabet, ended yesterday’s session above 52,000 for the first time. Asia continued the rally overnight with the Kospi set to exceed a 105% year-to-date performance by the end of its session. Meanwhile, the yen fell to a 40-year low against the US dollar. And, as Europe melts in the midst of the highest June temperatures on record, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about the economic impact of climate change, why ‘sponge’ cities are being developed, and what the implications are for investors.

US-Iran tensions eased over the weekend, supporting risk sentiment going into the new week. However, Asian markets are mixed despite South Korea's pledge of major semiconductor investment, as tech sector concerns temper enthusiasm. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the change in the technical picture of the US dollar, why they do not expect the S&P 500 to fall into correction territory, and the outlook for gold. Meanwhile, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives an update on Asian equity markets, including his thoughts on why China’s stock market has been disappointing lately.

With 2026 at its midpoint, investors are navigating an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and shifting growth dynamics across major economies. How are asset allocators responding, and what does this mean for portfolio construction in the months ahead?

In this episode of The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to examine the mid-year market outlook from an investor’s perspective. The discussion covers the impact of ongoing conflicts on commodity prices, the evolution of inflation expectations, and why Europe’s growth outlook is finally turning a corner. The conversation also explores the implications for equity and fixed income allocations, the realities of the AI investment boom, and the case for diversifying away from US dollar assets. The episode concludes with a look at private markets, infrastructure, and the enduring role of gold in portfolios.

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There was a mixed picture in financial markets yesterday as persistent US inflation continues to test the Federal Reserve’s patience. European equities climbed to fresh record highs, boosted by healthcare and chip stocks, while US markets diverged, with tech weakness weighing on the Nasdaq. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets came under pressure, led by sharp declines in Japan and South Korea, while oil volatility continues amid uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold and broader currency dynamics.

Not only did Micron’s fiscal Q3 earnings exceed expectations yesterday, but the company also guided for current-quarter revenue of USD 50 billion, positively surprising analysts and investors and boosting its share price by 16%. The euphoria around the announcement spilled over into other chip names, and Asia’s markets, excluding Hong Kong, all rallied overnight. Oil prices and bond yields have fallen as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to ramp up, and expectations of rate hikes have receded. Today’s PCE reading in the US might provide more clues. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joined today’s podcast to share his thoughts on gold’s continued dive. He explains why such sharp and swift moves point to flows rather than fundamentals, and shares why he remains constructive longer-term.

Equity markets are facing renewed pressure as investors question whether AI-driven stocks, particularly semiconductors, can sustain their remarkable rally. All eyes are on Micron, set to report earnings after today’s close in New York, for clues on the sector’s next move. At the same time, the broader economic backdrop remains supportive, with US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in five months. In today’s episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his perspective on newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication framework – and what it could mean for markets and investors.

Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks between Japanese and US officials. Regional equities declined. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about what strong dealmaking says about the healthcare sector.

Progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland helped ease geopolitical concerns. And while positive momentum in Asian tech lifted regional markets, European and US equity futures have started the week on a more cautious footing. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at the current trend in the S&P 500, shares his view on the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and outlines which segment of the US market he expects to outperform.

Against a shifting macro backdrop, markets are responding to easing geopolitical tensions following a US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling sharply and Asian equities rallying. Within China, however, a stark divergence persists: Hong Kong’s “old tech” sector has lagged, while mainland “new tech,” particularly AI infrastructure, continues to attract strong inflows and outperform.

In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about China’s uneven market outlook. They discuss the prospects for a rebound in Hong Kong internet stocks, the sustainability of the AI rally and signs of froth, alongside liquidity risks from IPO activity and the outlook for gold amid shifting oil and interest rate dynamics.

This episode was originally recorded on 16 June 2026.

Global markets have been driven this week by a US–Iran deal, a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh, and a Bank of Japan rate hike to multi-decade highs. Markets are now pricing in further US policy tightening, with record Treasury futures volumes signalling strong expectations for rate rises. Equities were mixed yesterday, with early weakness offset by gains in semiconductor stocks. Central banks remain in focus, as the Bank of England held rates and the Swiss National Bank maintained ultra-loose policy amid low inflation. Oil fell below USD 80 on improved supply. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights USD strength and gold weakness as the Fed sharpens its inflation focus. He also discusses the prospects for the major low-yielding currencies, the CHF and JPY.

European equities extended their upward momentum, while US markets faced selling pressure after the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish tone, pushing Treasury yields higher. Yet, sentiment later shifted again as news of a signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran lifted Asian markets and drove US equity futures firmly into positive territory. In today’s episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explores how easing geopolitical tensions could reshape the outlook for global energy markets.

SpaceX moves beyond rockets with its acquisition of AI firm Anysphere, igniting investor excitement and propelling the company to become the world’s fifth-most valuable after its blockbuster IPO. As technology and geopolitics continue to reshape markets, attention now turns to today’s FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, outlines what to expect from the Fed, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the impact of mega-IPOs and a potential US–Iran deal on equity markets, as well as how investors should position portfolios for the second half of 2026.

Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sharply, while gold moved higher amid softer rate expectations and a weaker dollar. Overnight, central banks remained in focus, with the Bank of Japan delivering its first rate hike since 1995, while weak macro data out of China reinforced concerns about slowing domestic demand. Today, we were joined by Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research, who unpacked the intensifying price war among leading AI model providers.

Yesterday, the US and Iran agreed to the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The deal is set to be signed on Friday and still allows for a 60-day window to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program. Evidently some details are still to be ironed out, but equity and bond markets have reacted positively, with Asia trading higher this morning and futures pointing to a higher opening globally today. Added to this, the price of oil has already dropped more than 4% and gold has climbed 3%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his thoughts on where these assets might trade from here, as well as sharing his view on semiconductor stocks. 

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As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026?
 
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, investigating not just sectors but also regions of interest, together with the case for investment grade and emerging market debt, and the ongoing impact of AI and clean energy themes. They also review the prospects for commodities, gold, and currencies as investors position themselves for the remainder of the year.

President Trump halted strikes on Iran yesterday and announced that a peace deal will be signed imminently. Markets reacted accordingly, with oil prices falling and equities rallying. Chip stocks contributed to the rally in both the US and Asia overnight. Even US Treasuries held on to their gains, as markets lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from 51% to 36%. SpaceX raised USD 75 billion, pricing itsshares at USD 135 – its debut will be a big focus later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Sales in Geneva, joined today’s podcast for his weekly take on all things currency and precious metals, so tune in to hear his views on the US dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc, as well as his perspective on the sharp fall in the gold price.

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While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.

Markets saw a cautious session yesterday, as investors remained on edge amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty, with both European and US equities ending broadly lower. Overnight, tensions escalated sharply, with US strikes on Iran followed by retaliatory actions across the Gulf, placing further strain on an already fragile ceasefire. Despite these developments, oil prices remained relatively contained. Macro data painted a mixed but broadly stable picture, with solid US housing demand, a sharply narrowing trade deficit, and modest growth signals from Europe. In Asia, rising producer prices in China and Japan highlighted ongoing cost pressures, keeping central banks in focus. Today, we were joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who discussed the revival of the IPO market and what investors should watch for in the months ahead.

European equities closed off their lows as oil reversed most of its early 5% gain after easing Middle East tensions, leaving Brent near USD 94. Weak German factory orders weighed on sentiment, while stocks diverged, with Zealand Pharma down 23% and Banca Monte dei Paschi up 13% on takeover news. In the US, technology led gains as chip stocks rebounded, though sentiment softened after Apple’s developer conference. Strong demand for SpaceX’s IPO and OpenAI’s filing point to a solid pipeline. Asian markets followed the tech rebound, led by Korea and Japan, while Hong Kong lagged and China reported stronger-than-expected trade data. Biotech deal activity remained strong, while inflation concerns kept rate hike expectations elevated, with muted moves in precious metals and FX. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, joined to discuss rising opposition to data centres in the US, and what it could mean for investors.

The market reaction to Friday’s better-than-expected US jobs report started bad and got worse. The Nasdaq closed down 4.2%, marking its steepest decline since April 2025, following ‘Liberation Day’. The sell-off spread to Asia this morning, where investors slammed the brakes on the red-hot AI rally. South Korea’s KOSPI fell by more than 8%, triggering circuit breakers. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he thinks the latest weakness in tech is a well-deserved pause, and why gold is on the watch list.

The role of a Chief Investment Officer is multifaceted – acting as both the guardian and the architect of a company’s investment process, and preventing people from making mistakes that might destroy value. A key requisite for the job is the ability to stay calm amid the panic when a global crisis hits.

In this special edition of The View Beyond, produced jointly with the World Economic Forum's Radio Davos, Bernadette Anderko and WEF Editor Robin Pomeroy sit down with Julius Baer's Group CIO Yves Bonzon to explore the history and nature of recent crises. Yves has spent more than three decades steering portfolios through other people's worst weeks: the crash of '87, the Asian crisis 10 years later, 2008’s Global Financial Crisis, COVID, the tariff wars, and now of course the war in Iran. He explains why each crisis provides opportunities to make a difference. After all, in the face of a crisis, a CIO must decide: is history repeating itself, or is a new paradigm emerging?

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Radio Davos is the flagship weekly podcast from the World Economic Forum. Get it on any podcast app:https://pod.link/1504682164. Find all Forum podcasts at wef.ch/podcastsand YouTube(https://www.youtube.com/@wef/podcasts).

Markets delivered a mixed session yesterday, driven by geopolitical tensions, a sharp semiconductor sell-off following Broadcom’s disappointing results, and steady macro data from Switzerland and the US. Oil remained driven by developments in the Middle East, while gold fluctuated alongside moves in the dollar and bond yields. European equities closed higher despite lingering uncertainty, while the US showed a clear divergence: the Dow reached a record high, supported by defensive stocks, as tech weakness weighed on the Nasdaq. In Asia, the rotation out of tech continued, pressuring chip-heavy markets such as South Korea and Japan, with broader sentiment remaining cautious. Today, we were joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, who shared insights on next week’s ECB meeting.

The S&P 500 snapped its nine-day winning streak yesterday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East dented risk sentiment, and momentum in the AI-driven rally eased. At the same time, bond yields pushed higher on the back of resilient labour market data, reigniting concerns that inflation pressures may persist. In today’s episode, our Group CIO Yves Bonzon shares his latest perspectives on the market backdrop, while Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explains why he expects oil prices to trend lower from here.

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