The Chuck ToddCast

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

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Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan

05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently

11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?

15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay

22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage

25:00 Election night livestream details

28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm

35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment

39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06

44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal

49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split

55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling 

1:08:30 Ask Chuck

1:09:45 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?

1:14:30 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?

1:17:30 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?

1:28:15 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?

1:33:00 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?

1:37:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything. 

Then, Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan

05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently

11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?

15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay

22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage

25:00 Election night livestream details

28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm

35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment

39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06

44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal

49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split

55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling 

1:10:30 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:12:15 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter

1:17:30 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back

1:23:45 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play

1:28:45 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it

1:32:00 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks

1:36:30 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook

1:40:15 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa

1:43:00 A more factionalized GOP than people realize

1:46:00 The shock results that would signal a huge wave

1:50:00 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds

2:01:00 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?

2:05:00 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights

2:16:45 Ask Chuck

2:18:00 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?

2:22:45 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?

2:25:45 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?

2:36:30 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?

2:41:15 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?

2:45:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become. 

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:45 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter

07:00 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back

13:15 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play

18:15 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it

21:30 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks

26:00 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook

29:45 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa

32:30 A more factionalized GOP than people realize

35:30 The shock results that would signal a huge wave

39:30 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds

50:30 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?

54:30 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party. 

Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel

08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency

12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted

20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate

24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening

28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates

33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio

40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex

48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson

50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets 

1:06:15 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ

1:06:45 Ask Chuck

1:07:00 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset?

1:09:00 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate?

1:13:30 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers?

1:15:45 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects

1:20:00 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens?

1:22:30 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP?

1:31:30 How did Tim Russert influence your career?

1:37:30 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party. 

Then, Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS.

Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel

08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency

12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted

20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate

24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening

28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates

33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio

40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex

48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson

50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets 

1:08:15 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:09:45 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides

1:12:45 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders

1:17:00 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders?

1:20:30 What can actually be done on affordability

1:23:00 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch

1:28:00 Would either party talk him into caucusing?

1:32:45 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand

1:40:15 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule

1:43:00 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana

1:46:45 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking

1:53:45 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football

2:05:30 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ

2:06:00 Ask Chuck

2:06:15 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset?

2:08:15 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate?

2:12:45 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers?

2:15:00 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects

2:19:15 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens?

2:21:45 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP?

2:30:45 How did Tim Russert influence your career?

2:36:45 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides

04:30 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders

08:45 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders?

12:15 What can actually be done on affordability

14:45 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch

19:45 Would either party talk him into caucusing?

24:30 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand

32:00 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule

34:45 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana

38:30 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking

45:30 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore how the Buckeyes became a college football powerhouse and the complicated legacy of legendary coach Woody Hayes.

From the historic Michigan rivalry and the infamous Snow Bowl to Hayes' coaching philosophy, controversial temper, and lasting influence, they uncover the people and moments that built Ohio State's football dynasty.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One week out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza go hunting for the counterfactual — the actual data that would tell a Republican this election isn’t what it looks like — and come back with exactly one: a polling error. “That’s a hell of a thing to bank on.” Chuck argues this is the worst version of Trump we’ve ever seen in an election year, a candidate reduced to the Nobel committee and calling Abdul El-Sayed a “jihadist” in Michigan, while his own top economic adviser went on Fox Business to call the affordability crisis a myth eight days out. Plus: why Democrats may run better in red states than blue, how Republicans sat on their money until it was too late to define Talarico, how Ohio got away entirely, what the Ramaswamy ad says about where the line is, and the new Times/Siena 2028 numbers. Plus their election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

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Timeline:

00:00 One week out: what could still change this, and the red-state theory

07:00 The worst version of Trump, and a party that won’t say “affordability”

13:00 Hunting for the counterfactual, and why every Republican ad is nostalgia

19:00 The money came too late: how they let Talarico define Paxton

24:00 Kalshi: Iowa, Maine and Kansas as the three most divided markets

30:00 Where the line is on the Ramaswamy ad, and building a firewall

36:00 Adding states to the 2028 map, and Minnesota’s outlier year

44:00 Times/Siena 2028: Harris at 12, Vance at 33, and a wide-open field

52:00 “All the Projection”: the election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ

58:00 The World Series, the sports equinox, and a two-Hurricane Heisman problem

1:05:00 Newsphere, one more show on Election Day, and sign-off

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations. 

Then, Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?

15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting

19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash

23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote

29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave

32:15 Republicans have no closing argument

42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins

47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals

57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play

1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles

1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people

1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election

1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days 

1:33:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:34:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history

1:37:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it

1:42:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage

1:50:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out

1:56:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development?

1:59:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks

2:02:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem

2:09:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field

2:12:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary

2:21:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job

2:24:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964

2:25:15 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech

2:27:45 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment

2:29:15 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights

2:31:00 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message

2:33:00 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country

2:34:15 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people

2:37:30 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message

2:42:00 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?

15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting

19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash

23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote

29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave

32:15 Republicans have no closing argument

42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins

47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals

57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play

1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles

1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people

1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election

1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days 

1:32:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964

1:33:30 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech

1:36:00 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment

1:37:30 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights

1:39:15 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message

1:41:15 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country

1:42:30 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people

1:45:45 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message

1:50:15 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history

04:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it

09:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage

17:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out

23:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development?

26:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks

29:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem

36:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field

39:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary

48:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad

12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues

17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters

19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election

24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map

30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification

36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity

43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?

45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi

51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out

54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it

1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day 

1:19:00 Ask Chuck

1:19:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?

1:23:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?

1:28:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?

1:32:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out

1:33:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?

1:39:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win. 

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad

12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues

17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters

19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election

24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map

30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification

36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity

43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?

45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi

51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out

54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it

1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day 

1:21:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:23:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?

1:25:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN

1:29:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney

1:33:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning

1:38:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money

1:45:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums

1:50:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman

1:57:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback

1:59:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation

2:06:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward

2:15:00 Ask Chuck

2:15:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?

2:19:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?

2:24:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?

2:28:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out

2:29:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?

2:35:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?

04:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN

08:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney

12:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning

17:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money

24:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums

29:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman

36:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback

38:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation

45:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility. 

Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument

06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party

10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami

12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary

14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy

15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton

18:45 Congress needs to investigate

27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption?

32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother

38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it

43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket?

47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now? 

0:54:15 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip

0:54:30 #1 North Carolina

0:55:15 #2 Ohio

0:56:30 #3 Texas

0:57:45 #4 Alaska

0:58:15 #5 Maine

0:59:30 #6 Kansas

1:00:45 #7 Michigan

1:02:15 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska

1:07:15 Ask Chuck

1:07:30 Why not eliminate political parties entirely?

1:13:30 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t?

1:17:30 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors?

1:19:45 Could Starshield decision be a war crime?

1:22:45 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility. 

Then, Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Chuck get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over. 

Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument

06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party

10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami

12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary

14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy

15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton

18:45 Congress needs to investigate

27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption?

32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother

38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it

43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket?

47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now? 

56:45 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

58:15 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris

1:00:45 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison

1:04:15 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten

1:08:30 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw

1:11:45 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office

1:20:15 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror

1:24:15 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812

1:28:00 Laying out the city of New York

1:31:00 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets

1:39:15 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically

1:44:15 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom

1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip

1:52:15 #1 North Carolina

1:53:00 #2 Ohio

1:54:15 #3 Texas

1:55:30 #4 Alaska

1:56:00 #5 Maine

1:57:15 #6 Kansas

1:58:30 #7 Michigan

2:00:00 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska

2:05:00 Ask Chuck

2:05:15 Why not eliminate political parties entirely?

2:11:15 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t?

2:15:15 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors?

2:17:30 Could Starshield decision be a war crime?

2:20:30 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Todd get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over. 

Timeline:

00:00 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris

04:00 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison

07:30 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten

11:45 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw

15:00 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office

23:30 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror

27:30 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812

31:15 Laying out the city of New York

34:15 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets

42:30 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically

47:30 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With 14 days left, Chuck Todd & Chris Cillizza make the argument that should scare Republicans most: corruption has climbed to the number two or three issue, and unlike any other message, it hands a lifelong conservative permission to punish his own party without admitting he was ever wrong. The evidence is already in the ad buys — Trump appeared in 47% of Republican broadcast airings in May and 1% in October — even as he opens a nine-stop closing tour in Wichita and calls the polls rigged. Chuck and Chris dig into why his Senate coattails are a myth Republicans keep believing, read the Kalshi market where an Abbott-plus-Talarico split is the likeliest Texas outcome, and unpack the five-day implosion of press secretary Katie Zacharia. Then the hardest question either of them gets: if Democrats actually sweep, what does December look like? Chuck’s answer is paralysis inside both parties, a Schumer who won’t walk away, and a president who’s less a partisan than a dealmaker. Plus Ann Hornaday, Miami at No. 1, and the cheapest World Series ticket in years. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS

Timeline:

00:00 Fourteen days out and Trump’s closing tour

08:00 Corruption, the permission slip, and ad data that gives the game away

15:00 What Trump says versus what he’d actually do after polls close

21:00 Kalshi: the Texas two-race market, vouchers, and the Beshear fight

29:00 The five-day press secretary and a West Wing built to keep Trump busy

35:00 What December actually looks like if Democrats sweep

43:00 DC statehood, the scorpion and the frog, and the race to replace him

49:00 Election-night tea leaves, and whether Schumer walks away

55:00 Miami–Florida State: the double-overtime finish and No. 1 since 2002

1:01:00 A 12-team playoff, Mensah, and the Arch Manning question

1:07:00 Rays–Brewers, and an election-night announcement coming

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues the environment hasn’t moved an inch and the only real question is whether this is a Category 1 blue wave or a Category 5 tsunami — with Trump already running the blame game, pre-blaming Cornyn and Karl Rove for a Paxton loss. Democratic small-dollar fundraising is enormous, early voting shows higher Black and Latino engagement, and Todd sets the benchmark: 245 House seats is a governing majority, 220-225 isn’t. But the story he keeps circling is Starshield. Reporting indicates Musk pitched throttling Ukraine’s satellite system directly to Trump, who “agreed” — though Trump denies it, Musk points at the government, and two senior officials told CNN the order didn’t come from the president. Todd’s question is the one nobody’s answering: how much control does Elon Musk have over American foreign policy? 

Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the stock market meltdown on Black Monday, how automation made the problem worse, and what lessons we can draw as we enter the age of AI. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Category 1 wave or Category 5 tsunami?

06:15 Trump gets a head start on the blame game

07:30 Democratic fundraising vs. the GOP’s billionaire money

14:30 What early voting is telling us

19:15 What a real governing majority looks like

24:00 The Senate map, Collins vs. Jackson, and AOC’s million-dollar play

34:15 Nebraska oppo and Bodnar’s internal poll

38:15 Susie Wiles, Katie Zacharia’s five-day tenure, and Trump’s bubble

45:45 How much distance can GOP candidates find?

51:30 Corruption starts to resonate — and Guilfoyle’s burn book

56:00 Trump sides with Putin again, and the diesel deal

1:03:00 The Starshield throttling and who actually ordered it

1:11:30 Republicans struggle to defend it 

1:19:30 ToddCast Time Machine - October 19th, 1987  Black Monday

1:21:00 Wall Street finding out the risks of automating decisions

1:24:00 Automation compounded the sell off 

1:26:30 Monday arrives and a massive sell off occurs

1:29:00 The underlying economy wouldn’t have dictated a crash

1:30:45 Fed announces it will provide liquidity to keep markets functioning

1:37:00 Market started assuming fed would save them from their stupidity

1:38:45 Similarities with how AI is being regulated today

1:42:15 Ask Chuck

1:42:30 What if Miami had joined the SEC?

1:45:45 What happens to anti-Trump Republicans a decade from now?

1:47:00 How will congress govern & how will Trump respond after a massive wave?

1:51:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues the environment hasn’t moved an inch and the only real question is whether this is a Category 1 blue wave or a Category 5 tsunami — with Trump already running the blame game, pre-blaming Cornyn and Karl Rove for a Paxton loss. Democratic small-dollar fundraising is enormous, early voting shows higher Black and Latino engagement, and Todd sets the benchmark: 245 House seats is a governing majority, 220-225 isn’t. But the story he keeps circling is Starshield. Reporting indicates Musk pitched throttling Ukraine’s satellite system directly to Trump, who “agreed” — though Trump denies it, Musk points at the government, and two senior officials told CNN the order didn’t come from the president. Todd’s question is the one nobody’s answering: how much control does Elon Musk have over American foreign policy? 

Then, Andy Lack — the former NBC News and MSNBC chairman who founded Mississippi Today and Deep South Today, and has now committed $12 million to nonprofit journalism — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why he went from running the most-watched news division in the world to building newsrooms in the Deep South. He argues Democrats simply don’t know how to talk to rural voters, white or Black, and describes a Mississippi that has made real gains in early education while still fighting brain drain and a sense of being stuck. On the business, Lack is clear-eyed: trust is the whole formula, video is essential, and the concentration of media ownership among billionaires and tech executives is a genuine threat. Plus what happens to medium-sized markets when the affiliate structure collapses, and why state and local government desperately needs watchdogs again. 

Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the stock market meltdown on Black Monday, how automation made the problem worse, and what lessons we can draw as we enter the age of AI. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Category 1 wave or Category 5 tsunami?

06:15 Trump gets a head start on the blame game

07:30 Democratic fundraising vs. the GOP’s billionaire money

14:30 What early voting is telling us

19:15 What a real governing majority looks like

24:00 The Senate map, Collins vs. Jackson, and AOC’s million-dollar play

34:15 Nebraska oppo and Bodnar’s internal poll

38:15 Susie Wiles, Katie Zacharia’s five-day tenure, and Trump’s bubble

45:45 How much distance can GOP candidates find?

51:30 Corruption starts to resonate — and Guilfoyle’s burn book

56:00 Trump sides with Putin again, and the diesel deal

1:03:00 The Starshield throttling and who actually ordered it

1:11:30 Republicans struggle to defend it 

1:20:30 Andy Lack joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:22:00 Why he founded Deep South Today

1:24:15 Mississippi’s politics, and the openings Democrats miss

1:26:45 Early education gains, brain drain, and a state stuck in the past

1:30:45 The model: pairing capital cities with smaller ones

1:33:00 Local news in a fragmented media era

1:34:45 The formula for success — video, and trust above all

1:45:30 Tech billionaires owning the media ecosystem

1:49:45 What happens when the affiliate structure collapses

2:00:00 Streaming, legacy brands, and journalism in the age of AI

2:05:45 Data centers and how tech engages communities

2:10:15 Expanding into news deserts and why watchdogs matter

2:14:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 19th, 1987  Black Monday

2:15:30 Wall Street finding out the risks of automating decisions

2:18:30 Automation compounded the sell off 

2:21:00 Monday arrives and a massive sell off occurs

2:23:30 The underlying economy wouldn’t have dictated a crash

2:25:15 Fed announces it will provide liquidity to keep markets functioning

2:31:30 Market started assuming fed would save them from their stupidity

2:33:15 Similarities with how AI is being regulated today

2:36:45 Ask Chuck

2:37:00 What if Miami had joined the SEC?

2:40:15 What happens to anti-Trump Republicans a decade from now?

2:41:30 How will congress govern & how will Trump respond after a massive wave?

2:45:30 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andy Lack — the former NBC News and MSNBC chairman who founded Mississippi Today and Deep South Today, and has now committed $12 million to nonprofit journalism — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why he went from running the most-watched news division in the world to building newsrooms in the Deep South. He argues Democrats simply don’t know how to talk to rural voters, white or Black, and describes a Mississippi that has made real gains in early education while still fighting brain drain and a sense of being stuck. On the business, Lack is clear-eyed: trust is the whole formula, video is essential, and the concentration of media ownership among billionaires and tech executives is a genuine threat. Plus what happens to medium-sized markets when the affiliate structure collapses, and why state and local government desperately needs watchdogs again. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Timeline:

00:00 Andy Lack joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why he founded Deep South Today

03:45 Mississippi’s politics, and the openings Democrats miss

06:15 Early education gains, brain drain, and a state stuck in the past

10:15 The model: pairing capital cities with smaller ones

12:30 Local news in a fragmented media era

14:15 The formula for success — video, and trust above all

25:00 Tech billionaires owning the media ecosystem

29:15 What happens when the affiliate structure collapses

39:30 Streaming, legacy brands, and journalism in the age of AI

45:15 Data centers and how tech engages communities

49:45 Expanding into news deserts and why watchdogs matter

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin Harlan joins Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande for the final chapter of Dynastic's Green Bay Packers series.

Growing up in Green Bay as the son of longtime Packers president Bob Harlan, Kevin witnessed the franchise's transformation firsthand. From the fading glory of Vince Lombardi's dynasty to the resurgence under Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Harlan offers a behind-the-scenes perspective on one of the most remarkable organizations in professional sports.

Kevin shares untold stories about the Packers' financial struggles, the signing of Reggie White, the transformation of Lambeau Field, and the decisions that helped secure the franchise's future. He also reflects on the legendary Ice Bowl, the origins of the Lambeau Leap, and what makes Green Bay unlike any other NFL city.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with Saturday’s fourth No Kings rally and the question of whether protest energy converts to turnout — noting the movement may now be more credible with voters than the Democratic Party itself. Then the story out of Pensacola Beach: ICE confronted four roofers repairing Hurricane Isaias damage at the Grand Marlin, and the men refused to come down until agents left, sending their paperwork down instead. Todd calls targeting hurricane recovery workers egregious and terrible politics with Hispanic voters, especially with families afraid to use storm shelters. The back half turns philosophical — Bill Kristol’s four leaders who’ve emerged as defenders of the world order (Zelenskyy, Magyar, Carney, Pope Leo) and Todd’s argument that America is perfectly capable of producing someone similar, if Democrats don’t mistake a midterm win for a mandate. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews a huge upcoming weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 No Kings and converting protest energy into turnout

07:45 ICE confronts hurricane recovery workers in Pensacola

14:45 Why this is terrible politics with Hispanic voters

15:45 Roger Marshall’s desperation ad

19:15 Accelerating inflation and a bleaker environment for the GOP

21:15 Ossoff rules out 2028, Wes Moore keeps the door open

24:00 Raskin’s Smithsonian proposal and the problem with negative ads

31:00 Could a viable independent stop the GOP in swing states?

38:30 Kristol’s four defenders of the world order

47:00 Could America produce a leader like that?

50:45 What the GOP does after a repudiation

54:15 The wrong lesson Democrats could learn from winning

58:30 The next president inherits a mess 

1:11:00 Ask Chuck

1:11:15 Is Trump truly this out of touch about the struggle of everyday Americans?

1:15:00 Could a wave produce massive gains for Dems at state level in Iowa

1:18:45 How much can media bias and coverage skew narratives?

1:24:30 Could a gas tax holiday meaningfully change perception of economy?

1:26:00 Where would a livestream execution actually be platformed?

1:29:45 College football preview

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with Saturday’s fourth No Kings rally and the question of whether protest energy converts to turnout — noting the movement may now be more credible with voters than the Democratic Party itself. Then the story out of Pensacola Beach: ICE confronted four roofers repairing Hurricane Isaias damage at the Grand Marlin, and the men refused to come down until agents left, sending their paperwork down instead. Todd calls targeting hurricane recovery workers egregious and terrible politics with Hispanic voters, especially with families afraid to use storm shelters. The back half turns philosophical — Bill Kristol’s four leaders who’ve emerged as defenders of the world order (Zelenskyy, Magyar, Carney, Pope Leo) and Todd’s argument that America is perfectly capable of producing someone similar, if Democrats don’t mistake a midterm win for a mandate. 

Then, Dr. Ayanna Howard — the former NASA JPL roboticist who became Spelman College’s 12th president in August — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue America needs a dedicated federal agency to oversee AI, regulated by specialty rather than treated as one monolithic technology. Her warning is pragmatic: without guardrails, the backlash after an inevitable bad event will be enormous. She explains why there is no such thing as general AI, why the technology is simultaneously oversold and improving fast, and why models trained on history risk writing marginalized groups out of it. On education, Howard argues critical thinking and basic learning skills matter more than ever, that COVID lockdowns damaged study and social skills in ways schools still haven’t addressed, and that the demographic cliff will force some universities to close. Plus: why America still hasn’t built a moon base. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews a huge upcoming weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 No Kings and converting protest energy into turnout

07:45 ICE confronts hurricane recovery workers in Pensacola

14:45 Why this is terrible politics with Hispanic voters

15:45 Roger Marshall’s desperation ad

19:15 Accelerating inflation and a bleaker environment for the GOP

21:15 Ossoff rules out 2028, Wes Moore keeps the door open

24:00 Raskin’s Smithsonian proposal and the problem with negative ads

31:00 Could a viable independent stop the GOP in swing states?

38:30 Kristol’s four defenders of the world order

47:00 Could America produce a leader like that?

50:45 What the GOP does after a repudiation

54:15 The wrong lesson Democrats could learn from winning

58:30 The next president inherits a mess 

1:12:00 Dr. Ayanna Howard joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:14:30 From NASA to academia

1:17:15 The case for a new federal AI agency

1:20:45 Guardrails, backlash, and regulating by specialty

1:23:45 What people fundamentally misunderstand about AI

1:29:45 The risk of AI training on an incomplete history

1:33:00 Teaching math and critical thinking in the AI era

1:41:30 The demographic cliff and universities that won’t survive

1:44:00 Spelman’s focus, trade schools, and classical education

1:48:45 Reforming K-12 and the lingering damage from lockdowns

1:56:00 Equity in AI development and the case

2:10:15 Ask Chuck

2:10:30 Is Trump truly this out of touch about the struggle of everyday Americans?

2:14:15 Could a wave produce massive gains for Dems at state level in Iowa

2:18:00 How much can media bias and coverage skew narratives?

2:23:45 Could a gas tax holiday meaningfully change perception of economy?

2:25:15 Where would a livestream execution actually be platformed?

2:29:00 College football preview

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Ayanna Howard — the former NASA JPL roboticist who became Spelman College’s 12th president in August — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue America needs a dedicated federal agency to oversee AI, regulated by specialty rather than treated as one monolithic technology. Her warning is pragmatic: without guardrails, the backlash after an inevitable bad event will be enormous. She explains why there is no such thing as general AI, why the technology is simultaneously oversold and improving fast, and why models trained on history risk writing marginalized groups out of it. On education, Howard argues critical thinking and basic learning skills matter more than ever, that COVID lockdowns damaged study and social skills in ways schools still haven’t addressed, and that the demographic cliff will force some universities to close. Plus: why America still hasn’t built a moon base.

Timeline:

00:00 Dr. Ayanna Howard joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:30 From NASA to academia

05:15 The case for a new federal AI agency

08:45 Guardrails, backlash, and regulating by specialty

11:45 What people fundamentally misunderstand about AI

17:45 The risk of AI training on an incomplete history

21:00 Teaching math and critical thinking in the AI era

29:30 The demographic cliff and universities that won’t survive

32:00 Spelman’s focus, trade schools, and classical education

36:45 Reforming K-12 and the lingering damage from lockdowns

44:00 Equity in AI development and the case for diverse models

50:15 Why we haven’t gone back to the moon 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list… expanded to ten with the expanding map, of Governorships most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label

10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter

13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help

15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina

18:15 How big can the House wave get?

21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play

26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem

33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces

37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement

41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility

47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 

55:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips

58:30 #1 Iowa

59:45 #2 Kansas

1:01:15 #3 Ohio

1:02:00 #4 Alaska

1:02:45 #5 Texas

1:03:30 #6 Georgia

1:04:30 #7 Nevada

1:05:30 #8 Oregon

1:06:30 #9 Wisconsin

1:07:00 #10 Florida

1:09:30 Ask Chuck

1:09:45 Predictions for Missouri house race

1:12:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed?

1:16:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success?

1:17:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers?

1:21:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July. 

Then, Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list… expanded to ten with the expanding map, of Governorships most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label

10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter

13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help

15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina

18:15 How big can the House wave get?

21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play

26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem

33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces

37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement

41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility

47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 

57:30 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast

59:30 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools

1:03:00 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure

1:08:00 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble

1:13:00 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking

1:18:00 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about

1:22:45 Higher ed as a political wedge issue

1:27:30 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform

1:33:30 What AI actually does to the value of a degree

1:38:45 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale

1:44:00 The standout state systems and what makes them work

1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips

1:55:30 #1 Iowa

1:56:45 #2 Kansas

1:58:15 #3 Ohio

1:59:00 #4 Alaska

1:59:45 #5 Texas

2:00:30 #6 Georgia

2:01:30 #7 Nevada

2:02:30 #8 Oregon

2:03:30 #9 Wisconsin

2:04:00 #10 Florida

2:06:30 Ask Chuck

2:06:45 Predictions for Missouri house race

2:09:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed?

2:13:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success?

2:14:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers?

2:18:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country. 

Timeline:

00:00 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools

05:30 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure

10:30 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble

15:30 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking

20:30 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about

25:15 Higher ed as a political wedge issue

30:00 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform

36:00 What AI actually does to the value of a degree

41:15 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale

46:30 The standout state systems and what makes them work

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out from the midterms, the richest man on earth spent a weekend laundering a fabricated story about a Senate candidate’s mental health into the mainstream — and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza argue the desperation of it is the tell. They open on the smear campaign against James Talarico in Texas (PolitiFact rated it Pants on Fire; the Ohio facility at the center of it publicly stated he was never a patient), then widen out to what it means that Elon Musk owns both the megaphone and the checkbook — $276 million into the midterms since July. From there: whether Republicans are underestimating the size of this wave, the four-to-seven-point scandal penalty and how it prices Kansas, and a Kalshi-driven walk down the Senate ladder — why 52 seats is the bull probability case, 54 the bull possibility case, and Annie Andrews the most mispriced bet on the board. Plus three stories of an administration behaving like it expects to lose: Kimberly Guilfoyle on the brink in Athens, Hegseth’s plan to livestream a firing-squad execution with eight articles of impeachment waiting for a House that isn’t back until November 9, and DHS agents at Ilhan Omar’s door 22 days before an election. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS

Timeline:

00:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it

06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame — and the GOP’s stages of grief

12:00  Musk’s $276 million, the Soros projection, and who should control a megaphone

18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave?

22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas

30:00 Walking down the Senate ladder: 52, 54, and the most mispriced race

36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do

41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and eight articles waiting

46:00 The televised execution, and whose information ecosystem produces it

50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol

54:00 Brewers-Dodgers, a top-heavy West, and why Milwaukee keeps doing this

1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and its impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at?

10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic

12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think

19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024

23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions

25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates

28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map

34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates

39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters

47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo

56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 

1:04:15 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912

1:04:45 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway

1:08:15 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power

1:11:15 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out

1:15:00 The Bull Moose Party is born 

1:15:45 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump

1:17:45 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal

1:21:15 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it

1:23:45 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties

1:25:45 Ask Chuck

1:26:00 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job?

1:30:45 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize?

1:33:45 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity?

1:36:15 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel?

1:38:15 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps?

1:43:15 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. 

Then, AEI senior fellow James Pethokoukis — author of the Faster, Please! newsletter — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue that America’s AI anxiety is the predictable product of two decades of shocks landing on an economy that’s been weak by historical standards. His central political point cuts against his own side of the argument: telling voters their fear is irrational is the worst possible strategy, and Silicon Valley is terrible at communicating with the public. He’s no more comfortable with Trump’s self-regulation approach, noting Congress has failed to pass even a privacy bill of rights and won’t touch AI in the next two years. His cautionary tale is nuclear power, where public aversion cost the country clean energy at scale while far more people died from fossil fuel pollution — and his warning is that AI companies shouldn’t be treated as weapons against China.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and it’s impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at?

10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic

12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think

19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024

23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions

25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates

28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map

34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates

39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters

47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo

56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 

1:06:30 James Pethokoukis joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:08:30 Why an economic growth guy got interested in AI

1:11:30 Shock after shock, and whether the information diet amplifies despair

1:14:00 Why focusing only on AI’s downside is destructive

1:18:30 Self-regulation, congressional failure, and the next two years

1:25:30 What risk level should we demand from AI companies?

1:26:45 The nuclear power cautionary tale

1:31:45 Rapid adoption, delayed productivity, and absurd forecasts

1:38:30 Silicon Valley’s communication problem

1:43:00 Accountability, visibility, and young companies

1:50:30 Where does a free-market conservative go now?

1:56:30 Competition, monopolies, and the China race narrative

2:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912

2:06:30 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway

2:10:00 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power

2:13:00 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out

2:16:45 The Bull Moose Party is born 

2:17:30 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump

2:19:30 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal

2:23:00 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it

2:25:30 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties

2:27:30 Ask Chuck

2:27:45 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job?

2:32:30 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize?

2:35:30 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity?

2:38:00 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel?

2:40:00 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps?

2:45:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AEI senior fellow James Pethokoukis — author of the Faster, Please! newsletter — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue that America’s AI anxiety is the predictable product of two decades of shocks landing on an economy that’s been weak by historical standards. His central political point cuts against his own side of the argument: telling voters their fear is irrational is the worst possible strategy, and Silicon Valley is terrible at communicating with the public. He’s no more comfortable with Trump’s self-regulation approach, noting Congress has failed to pass even a privacy bill of rights and won’t touch AI in the next two years. His cautionary tale is nuclear power, where public aversion cost the country clean energy at scale while far more people died from fossil fuel pollution — and his warning is that AI companies shouldn’t be treated as weapons against China.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 James Pethokoukis joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Why an economic growth guy got interested in AI

05:00 Shock after shock, and whether the information diet amplifies despair

07:30 Why focusing only on AI’s downside is destructive

12:00 Self-regulation, congressional failure, and the next two years

19:00 What risk level should we demand from AI companies?

20:15 The nuclear power cautionary tale

25:15 Rapid adoption, delayed productivity, and absurd forecasts

32:00 Silicon Valley’s communication problem

36:30 Accountability, visibility, and young companies

44:00 Where does a free-market conservative go now?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

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Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus

13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps

17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple

25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending

28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late

31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates

34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean

42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing

46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats

54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test

1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean 

1:11:00 Ask Chuck

1:11:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle

1:13:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain

1:14:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea?

1:15:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross?

1:18:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham?

1:23:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats. 

Then, Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seekalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

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Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus

13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps

17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple

25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending

28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late

31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates

34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean

42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing

46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats

54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test

1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean 

1:13:15 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:14:15 The simulation, the three factions, and how it works

1:17:15 Why the Nationalists keep winning

1:22:00 The predictable playbook of authoritarians

1:25:30 What happens if 2028 is disputed

1:33:45 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats

1:36:30 The midterms as practice for 2028

1:42:30 The next 75 days and seating the winners

1:45:15 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians

1:55:30 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI

2:00:00 Is the constitutional period already over?

2:07:45 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope

2:18:00 Ask Chuck

2:18:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle

2:20:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain

2:21:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea?

2:22:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross?

2:24:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham?

2:30:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028. 

Timeline:

00:00 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast 

01:00The simulation, the three factions, and how it works

04:00 Why the Nationalists keep winning

08:45 The predictable playbook of authoritarians

12:15 What happens if 2028 is disputed

20:30 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats

23:15 The midterms as practice for 2028

29:15 The next 75 days and seating the winners

32:00 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians

42:15 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI

46:45 Is the constitutional period already over?

54:30 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go

06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand

08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance

11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade

14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump

19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip

21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot

25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters

30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine

35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 

37:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip

38:30 #1 North Carolina

39:15 #2 Alaska

41:00 #3 Ohio

42:45 #4 Texas

44:30 #5 Maine

46:30 #6 Kansas

47:15 #7 Iowa

49:00 #8 Michigan

52:00 #9 Nebraska

54:15 #10 South Carolina

59:00 Ask Chuck

59:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?

1:04:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?

1:08:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?

1:12:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?

1:16:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. 

Then, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never break through, and whether AI will sanitize history further.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go

06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand

08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance

11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade

14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump

19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip

21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot

25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters

30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine

35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 

40:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast

41:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington

44:30 Sources, threads, and what the march was really about

49:30 How "I Have a Dream" got sanitized — and who gets remembered

52:30 Anna Hedgeman and the women who weren't allowed to speak

55:30 Who thought the march failed, and the case for incrementalism

1:02:30 Diane Nash, Rosa Parks, and the economic retribution against activists

1:09:30 Why reparations hasn't broken through

1:14:00 AI, erasure, and the risk to original sources

1:25:30 Elites, education, and the threats to the Smithsonian

1:32:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip

1:33:30 #1 North Carolina

1:34:15 #2 Alaska

1:36:00 #3 Ohio

1:37:45 #4 Texas

1:39:30 #5 Maine

1:41:30 #6 Kansas

1:42:15 #7 Iowa

1:44:00 #8 Michigan

1:47:00 #9 Nebraska

1:49:15 #10 South Carolina

1:54:00 Ask Chuck

1:54:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?

1:59:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?

2:03:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?

2:07:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?

2:11:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never breaks through, and whether AI will sanitize history further.

Timeline:

00:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington
04:30 Sources, threads, and what the march was really about
09:30 How "I Have a Dream" got sanitized — and who gets remembered
12:30 Anna Hedgeman and the women who weren't allowed to speak
15:30 Who thought the march failed, and the case for incrementalism
22:30 Diane Nash, Rosa Parks, and the economic retribution against activists
29:30 Why reparations hasn't broken through
34:00 AI, erasure, and the risk to original sources
45:30 Elites, education, and the threats to the Smithsonian

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande trace Green Bay from the Ice Bowl and first Super Bowls through the post-Lombardi struggles and the franchise’s eventual rebirth with Brett Favre, Reggie White and Aaron Rodgers. 

The Green Bay Packers became an NFL dynasty under Vince Lombardi. But what happened when the man who built it left? It’s the story of how the Packers built a dynasty that endured across generations.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Twenty-eight days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza stress-test their own assumptions: if everything points one direction, what could still be wrong? They work through all three counterfactuals — the Republican money advantage, a polling miss, and the fact that it's October 6th and not November 2nd — and find the money argument weakest, since the GOP has owned the airwaves for six weeks with no discernible movement. That sets up the episode's central frame, borrowed from Charlie Cook: this is a red undertow, not a blue wave, because the fight is happening in light-red and formerly purple states where Republicans own the status quo and there's no Democrat left to blame. The weekend's five New York Times/Siena polls back it up — Talarico at 51 in Texas, Kansas tied, and Ashley Hinson clinging to a one-point lead in the race Chuck calls the most predictive on the board. He also floats a tinfoil-hat theory about who benefits from leaked audio making Ken Paxton look ungrateful, a day before Politico published exactly that. Plus the Kalshi board and where Susan Collins is underpriced, Ted Cruz firing back at JD Vance, Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round win and what it signals about a Trump on the 2028 ballot, and Trump posting Tom Cotton's cell number over daylight saving time. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SuperTuesdays

http://kalshi.com/r/SuperTuesdays

Timeline:

00:00 Twenty-eight days out — and the case that we're all wrong

04:00 Red undertow, not blue wave: why the map explains everything

08:00 Five NYT/Siena polls, and the one race Chuck would want to know

14:00 Iowa as the tell — and the Republicans who are one turnover away

16:00 The tinfoil hat theory about Paxton, and the money pit called Texas

20:00 Talarico at 51 — the point where money stops mattering

26:00 The Kalshi board: 48 seats, Collins as the value & overpriced governors

35:00 If Collins wins, it's one of the great holds of all time

39:00 A little 2028: Vance baits Cruz, and why Rand Paul is the real threat

45:00 Night golf, $90 checks & the rise of the "meatloaf Republicans"

51:00 Bolsonaro's son wins round one — and the Trump 2028 question

53:00 Baseball playoffs, the ball off the roof & a Packers team with no line

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system  as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage

09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers

13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans

16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split

20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved

23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics

27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks

31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time

35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt

41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military 

57:30 ToddCast Time Machine  Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice

58:00 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS

1:00:30 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren

1:02:00 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat

1:05:00 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0

1:08:30 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren

1:10:30 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights

1:15:45 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices

1:17:15 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman

1:21:00 Ask Chuck

1:21:15 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing?

1:26:00 Best comedic political impressions?

1:29:45 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami

1:33:00 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson

1:34:30 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive?

1:38:45 College football recap

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment. 

Then, Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system  as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage

09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers

13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans

16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split

20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved

23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics

27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks

31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time

35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt

41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military 

58:00 Jennifer Palmieri joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:00:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics

1:04:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one

1:12:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state

1:18:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it

1:21:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places

1:28:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas

1:30:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign

1:36:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem

1:45:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem

1:53:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026

1:56:00 ToddCast Time Machine  Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice
1:56:30 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS
1:59:00 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren
2:00:30 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat
2:03:30 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0
2:07:00 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren
2:09:00 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights
2:14:15 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices
2:15:45 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman
2:19:30 Ask Chuck
2:19:45 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing?
2:24:30 Best comedic political impressions?
2:28:15 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami
2:31:30 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson
2:33:00 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive?
2:37:15 College football recap

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics
06:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one
14:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state
20:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it
23:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places
30:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas
32:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign
38:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem
47:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem
55:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened

11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode

17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP

27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact

31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all

36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore

39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take

43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout 

00:52:30 Ask Chuck

00:52:45 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history

00:54:30 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed

00:56:15 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas?

01:00:45 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI?

01:02:00 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America?

01:07:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology. 

Then, Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened

11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode

17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP

27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact

31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all

36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore

39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take

43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout 

00:55:45 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:56:45 From community organizing to the statehouse

01:01:15 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it

01:04:15 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it

01:10:15 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee

01:16:30 What she wants to do in the Senate

01:22:15 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings

01:28:15 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer

1:35:15 Ask Chuck

1:35:30 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history

1:37:15 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed

1:39:00 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas?

1:42:30 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI?

1:44:45 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America?

1:49:45 College football preview 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 From community organizing to the statehouse

05:30 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it

08:30 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it

14:30 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee

20:45 What she wants to do in the Senate

26:30 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings

32:30 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project.  

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight

03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump

09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle

13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for

16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating

22:45 Public education as an American advantage

25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked

30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything

40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price

47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers 

00:57:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028

00:58:00 #5 Does an independent break through?

01:00:15 #4 California’s wealth tax

01:01:45 #3 Texas senate

01:03:15 #2 Texas governor

01:04:45 #1 Michigan senate

01:06:45 Ask Chuck

01:07:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments?

01:11:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning?

01:16:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms?

01:18:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control?

01:23:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project.  

Then, CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight

03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump

09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle

13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for

16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating

22:45 Public education as an American advantage

25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked

30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything

40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price

47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers 

58:45 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast

59:45 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"

1:44:30 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales

1:46:45 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward

1:15:15 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao

1:21:15 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church

1:25:15 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies

1:32:30 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time

1:43:45 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas

1:58:15 Covering a second-term Trump White House

2:04:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028

2:05:00 #5 Does an independent break through?

2:09:30 #4 California’s wealth tax

2:08:45 #3 Texas senate

2:10:15 #2 Texas governor

2:11:45 #1 Michigan senate

2:13:45 Ask Chuck

2:14:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments?

2:18:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning?

2:23:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms?

2:25:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control?

2:30:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"?

05:45 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales

08:00 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward

16:30 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao

22:30 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church

26:30 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies

33:45 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time

45:00 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas

59:30 Covering a second-term Trump White House

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thirty-five days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on a president playing the hits: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament, then announced his campaign tour kicks off in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama — the site of his first mega-rally in 2015 — rather than anywhere control of Congress is being decided. The more consequential move was rejecting Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an exit ramp every Republican in a tough race is publicly begging for; Brent jumped above $107 on the news. That sets up the episode's best segment: a truth-serum run through every competitive Senate race asking which Republicans would actually stand next to Trump — and why the answer across Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska is no, because the damage there is his own tariff and diesel policy. Plus the Senate Leadership Fund's $118 million bet on Ken Paxton, a candidate who's spent under $1 million himself; Fetterman's "lifelong Republican" slip; why Murkowski's calculus runs entirely through Mary Peltola; and why Chuck reads AOC's upstate tour as a Senate campaign, not a presidential one. 

Timeline:

00:00 Trump kicks off in Oklahoma and Mobile — and rejects the Iran exit ramp

08:00 Truth serum: which Republicans would actually do a rally with Trump?

18:00 The $118M Paxton bet, and whether McConnell would have swerved

26:00 Triage: walking from Georgia and North Carolina, holding Maine and Ohio

30:00 Fetterman's slip, Murkowski's calculus & when party switches happen

40:00 AOC's real 2028 decision — and why Chuck reads it as the Senate

48:00 The Nats finish 77-85; why reloading is harder than it looks

54:00 The Packers, an atrocious offensive line & a pick headed to the Jets

1:03:00 Kalshi sponsorship, the 62% sweep question & Collins underpriced

1:12:00 Do your own research — and World Series wishes

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Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election

06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested

14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll

16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad

21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them

26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas

31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America

40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike

45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 

57:30 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919

58:45 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations

1:00:00 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke

1:02:15 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated

1:03:45 Nobody was able to remove Wilson

1:05:30 States ratified the 25th amendment

1:07:15 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor

1:09:00 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation

1:10:00 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know

1:13:15 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment

1:16:30 Ask Chuck

1:16:45 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump?

1:21:15 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms?

1:26:00 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi?

1:28:15 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms?

1:31:15 NFL/College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll.

Then, former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election

06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested

14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll

16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad

21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them

26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas

31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America

40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike

45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 

59:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:01:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture

1:04:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force

1:09:00 What can actually lower beef prices

1:15:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches

1:21:00 Food security is national security

1:28:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest

1:35:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change

1:44:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa?

1:51:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like

1:58:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919

1:59:15 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations

2:00:30 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke

2:02:45 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated

2:04:15 Nobody was able to remove Wilson

2:06:00 States ratified the 25th amendment

2:07:45 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor

2:09:30 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation

2:10:30 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know

2:13:45 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment

2:17:00 Ask Chuck

2:17:15 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump?

2:21:45 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms?

2:26:30 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi?

2:28:45 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms?

2:31:45 NFL/College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, now CEO of the World Food Prize Foundation — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture

05:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force

10:00 What can actually lower beef prices

16:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches

22:00 Food security is national security

29:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest

36:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change

45:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa?

52:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande go back to the unlikely beginnings of one of the NFL’s most iconic franchises. From Curly Lambeau and the team’s unusual origin story to the community ownership structure that helped keep the Packers in Green Bay, they explore how a small Wisconsin city survived while other early NFL towns disappeared.

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Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story

11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent

17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal

23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping

29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela

32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us

38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs

44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer 

50:30 Ask Chuck

50:45 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run?

54:15 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027?

59:15 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable?

1:05:15 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation?

1:08:30 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course?

1:13:15 College football preview

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Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. 

Then, Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story

11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent

17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal

23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping

29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela

32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us

38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs

44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer 

53:00 Adam Brandon joins the Chuck ToddCast

54:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties

59:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s

1:08:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress

1:16:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test

1:23:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment

1:32:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot

1:39:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus

1:43:45 What younger voters actually want from the system

1:50:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything

1:56:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy

2:02:00 Ask Chuck

2:02:15 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run?

2:05:45 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027?

2:10:45 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable?

2:16:45 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation?

2:20:00 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course?

2:24:45 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties

06:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s

15:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress

23:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test

30:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment

39:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot

46:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus

50:45 What younger voters actually want from the system

57:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything

1:03:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins

07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down

08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become

18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money

21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need

34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit

38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going

44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage

51:30 The Paramount settlement with California 

58:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues

58:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump

59:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE

59:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel

59:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran

1:00:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers

1:02:00 Ask Chuck

1:02:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview?

1:06:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones

1:07:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive?

1:14:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be?

1:16:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials?

1:19:00 Shout out to the Nats

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide. 

Then, Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

You can order All The Wrong Moves here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250437563

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins

07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down

08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become

18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money

21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need

34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit

38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going

44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage

51:30 The Paramount settlement with California 

59:45 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump

1:01:45 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens

1:05:30 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went

1:09:45 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress

1:12:30 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point

1:14:30 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks

1:16:00 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th

1:17:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues

1:17:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump

1:18:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE

1:18:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel

1:18:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran

1:19:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers

1:21:00 Ask Chuck

1:21:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview?

1:25:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones

1:26:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive?

1:33:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be?

1:35:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials?

1:38:00 Shout out to the Nats

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out.

Timeline:

00:00 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump

02:00 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens

05:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went

10:00 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress

12:45 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point

14:45 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks

16:15 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Six weeks out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Trump's ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House — escalated Monday when the rest of the TV pool refused to cover him without CNN. Chuck, who fought the Obama White House's attempt to cut Fox out of a pool, explains why the real story is why now: a president lashing out as he loses control everywhere else. NBC has Trump at 41%, his second-term low; the Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023; and the three most toxic positions in NBC's message testing are the three things Trump spent the last ten days amplifying. Chuck argues everyone is probably underestimating Democrats, then turns to the party's own problems: a DNC in debt, a brand that polls worse than the GOP's, and Axios reporting that most former Harris aides don't expect her to run in 2028. Plus JB Pritzker's 80-pound GLP-1 disclosure and Jayden Daniels' devastating elbow injury. 

Timeline:

00:00 Trump bans CNN, MS NOW & Politico — and how the TV pool works

06:00 Why now? A president grabbing what he can control

16:00 Toxic message tests, Iowa defections & a party running from Trump

24:00 Are we underestimating Democrats? Wave, tsunami or mirage

34:00 The Democrats' money problem — the DNC, donors & turnout groups

40:00 Is Kamala Harris running? The Malibu tell and a cycle off

48:00 Pritzker's weight loss, the Democratic brand & the rise of independents

1:00:00 Jayden Daniels, injuries & the college sports bill

1:08:00 NFL chaos, NBA predictability & the case for relegation

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out

11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump

15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low

18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is

24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues

29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa

35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system

39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 

48:00 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act

49:15 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports

50:45 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983

51:30 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke

55:15 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong

57:45 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events

1:01:00 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere

1:04:30 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain

1:06:45 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain

1:07:30 Ask Chuck

1:07:45 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?

1:14:30 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?

1:18:30 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?

1:21:00 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?

1:22:45 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?

1:31:30 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?

1:35:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.

Then, Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out

11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump

15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low

18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is

24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues

29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa

35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system

39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 

51:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast

52:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along

57:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver

1:03:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them

1:09:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if

1:13:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority

1:17:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both

1:26:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition

1:30:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list

1:36:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight

1:45:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out

1:48:45 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act

1:50:00 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports

1:51:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983

1:52:15 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke

1:56:00 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong

1:58:30 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events

2:01:45 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere

2:05:15 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain

2:07:30 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain

2:08:15 Ask Chuck

2:08:30 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?

2:15:15 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?

2:19:15 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?

2:21:45 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?

2:23:30 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?

2:32:15 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?

2:35:45 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along

06:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver

12:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them

18:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if

22:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority

26:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both

35:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition

39:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list

45:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight

54:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion

09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash

12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers

20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House

28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him

33:00 How an industry captures a government

39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 

49:00 Ask Chuck

49:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?

54:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?

1:02:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?

1:08:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?

1:13:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?

1:19:30 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. 

Then, longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion

09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash

12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers

20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House

28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him

33:00 How an industry captures a government

39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 

52:30 Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast

54:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple

1:02:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban

1:05:45 The Texas GOP's character problem

1:10:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean

1:14:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition

1:24:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war

1:30:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario

1:40:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash

1:55:00 Ask Chuck

1:55:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?

2:00:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?

2:08:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?

2:14:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?

2:19:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?

2:25:30 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple

08:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban

11:45 The Texas GOP's character problem

16:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean

20:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition

30:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war

36:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario

46:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding. 

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions

12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem

15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center

22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents

32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami

36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton

42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem

52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored 

1:04:30 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does

1:07:30 Newsom is a savvy politician

1:09:15 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image

1:09:30 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028

1:16:00 Ask Chuck

1:16:15 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment?

1:18:30 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech?

1:24:30 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists?

1:26:15 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict?

1:29:45 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding. 

Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast.

Then, Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions

12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem

15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center

22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents

32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami

36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton

42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem

52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored 

1:06:00 Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast

1:07:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate

1:12:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't

1:15:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives

1:17:45 Why the government can't build this itself

1:22:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money

1:30:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead

1:39:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch

1:46:00 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does

1:49:00 Newsom is a savvy politician

1:50:45 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image

1:51:00 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028

1:57:30 Ask Chuck

1:57:45 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment?

2:00:00 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech?

2:06:00 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists?

2:07:45 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict?

2:11:15 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast.

Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate

06:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't

09:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives

11:45 Why the government can't build this itself

16:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money

24:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead

33:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state — $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio — and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 — except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay. 

Timeline:

00:00 The late-money avalanche & why these two weeks decide everything

10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire & the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq

18:00 Texas, Florida & the rescue mission for Ken Paxton

24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story & why Marshall is vulnerable

34:00 Forced pairs — who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska

40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks

46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress & a leadership vacuum

56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill

66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks & the top five

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway

17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate?

27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall

32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock

39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross

42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies

46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed 

56:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920

58:00 The Wall Street Bombing

1:03:15 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists

1:10:00 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured

1:16:00 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power

1:20:30 Ask Chuck

1:20:45 Should politicians avoid using foul language?

1:24:00 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish?

1:30:00 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming?

1:33:45 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership?

1:38:00 College football reaction

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high. 

Then, veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway

17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate?

27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall

32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock

39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross

42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies

46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed 

58:00 Maria Comella joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting

1:08:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook

1:15:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself

1:28:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds

1:39:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem

1:44:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future

1:53:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failures

2:01:15 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920

2:02:45 The Wall Street Bombing

2:08:00 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists

2:14:45 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured

2:20:45 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power

2:25:15 Ask Chuck

2:25:30 Should politicians avoid using foul language?

2:28:45 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish?

2:34:45 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming?

2:38:30 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership?

2:42:45 College football reaction

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting

10:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook

17:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself

30:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds

41:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem

46:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future

55:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failures

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here.

From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment

03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it

04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic

05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails

07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment

08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI

09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money

10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture

13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this?

16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public

18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair

21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious

23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs

26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't

30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters

34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick

36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare

38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior

40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit

42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11

44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani

47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story

51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back

54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed

56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date

59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct

1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society

1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other 

1:14:45 Ask Chuck

1:15:00 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression?

1:19:45 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain?

1:24:15 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better?

1:24:45 Who needs to sell their MLB team first?

1:28:00 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon?

1:31:45 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election?

1:35:45 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here.

From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it. 

Then, Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment

03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it

04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic

05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails

07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment

08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI

09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money

10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture

13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this?

16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public

18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair

21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious

23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs

26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't

30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters

34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick

36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare

38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior

40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit

42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11

44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani

47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story

51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back

54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed

56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date

59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct

1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society

1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other 

1:17:30 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:18:45 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law

1:19:45 Could the administration steal the midterm elections?

1:22:15 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out

1:24:15 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020

1:25:45 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if"

1:28:45 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment

1:29:30 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House

1:31:15 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things

1:33:00 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified?

1:35:45 A late seating could flip the chamber

1:37:45 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th"

1:39:45 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in?

1:40:45 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out

1:43:45 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one

1:47:30 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable

1:50:15 Can the House override a state certification?

1:52:45 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off

1:54:30 The history of the Broad Seal War

1:59:30 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos

2:05:30 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48

2:06:15 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"

2:09:15 Ask Chuck

2:09:30 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression?

2:14:15 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain?

2:18:45 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better?

2:19:15 Who needs to sell their MLB team first?

2:22:30 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon?

2:26:15 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election?

2:30:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough. 

link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law

02:15 Could the administration steal the midterm elections?

04:45 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out

06:45 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020

08:15 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if"

11:15 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment

12:00 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House

13:45 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things

15:30 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified?

18:15 A late seating could flip the chamber

20:15 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th"

22:15 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in?

23:15 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out

26:15 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one

30:00 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable

32:45 Can the House override a state certification?

35:15 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off

37:00 The history of the Broad Seal War

42:00 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos

48:00 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48

48:45 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections

04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire

05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races

06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party

08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range

09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH

11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans

13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters

14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map

14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result

15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map

16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election

18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect

19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map

20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue

21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction

23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos

25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery

26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election

29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem

31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort

33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska

34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing

36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA

37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective

40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy

42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills

42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars

43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts

44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk

45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall

48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare

50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election

56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide

1:00:00 #5 Florida

1:01:15 #4 Kansas

1:03:30 #3 Iowa

1:06:15 #2 Texas

1:09:15 #1 Ohio

1:12:00 Ask Chuck

1:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war?

1:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job?

1:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive?

1:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip?

1:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.

Then, Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career.

The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections

04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire

05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races

06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party

08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range

09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH

11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans

13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters

14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map

14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result

15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map

16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election

18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect

19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map

20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue

21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction

23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos

25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery

26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election

29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem

31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort

33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska

34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing

36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA

37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective

40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy

42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills

42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars

43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts

44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk

45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall

48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare

50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election

59:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:01:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century"

1:03:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker

1:05:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six

1:08:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first

1:10:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her

1:11:30 Why she never learned Italian

1:14:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera

1:17:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed

1:18:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist

1:19:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein

1:21:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe

1:25:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals

1:29:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it

1:36:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community

1:37:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear

1:43:30 The state of classical music in 2026

1:47:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live

1:52:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America

1:56:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th

1:56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide

2:00:00 #5 Florida

2:01:15 #4 Kansas

2:03:30 #3 Iowa

2:06:15 #2 Texas

2:09:15 #1 Ohio

2:12:00 Ask Chuck

2:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war?

2:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job?

2:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive?

2:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip?

2:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career.

The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century"

04:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker

06:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six

09:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first

11:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her

12:30 Why she never learned Italian

15:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera

18:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed

19:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist

20:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein

22:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe

26:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals

30:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it

37:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community

38:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear

44:30 The state of classical music in 2026

48:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live

53:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America

57:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with ESPN’s Paul Finebaum and dive into Alabama football.

Finebaum shares his perspective on Bear Bryant’s complicated legacy and the integration of Alabama football, explains why Nick Saban succeeded where so many post-Bryant coaches failed, and reveals how Saban established total control over the program from the moment he arrived in Tuscaloosa.

Plus, Finebaum offers a warning about Alabama’s future.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day.

From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now

03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s 

04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice

05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season

07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no

08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part

11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem

13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message?

14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been

16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech

19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day

20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech?

23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas

26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take.

27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval

29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario

31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back

33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016

34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem

38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check

39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest

42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House

43:00 The Missouri ruling

46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop

47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29.

49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers

51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story

54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd

55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party?

58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking

1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame

1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave

1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference

1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act

1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court

1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill

1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team.

1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.

He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day

04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult

06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big

07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?

08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance

09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats

11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat

12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started

14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors

15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans

16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates

18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018

19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance

21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election

23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?

25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise

27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent

29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem

31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?

33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance

34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable

36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through

37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument

38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off

41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami

42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?

46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out

49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman

50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?

52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?

52:45 College football week one recap 

1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974

1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake

1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon

1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?

1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support

1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew

1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over

1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received

1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it

1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon

1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?

1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken

1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop

1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed

1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon

1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon

1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon

1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing

1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents

1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last

1:43:45 Ask Chuck

1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?

1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?

1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?

1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?

2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.

He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.

Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond.

The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day

04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult

06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big

07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?

08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance

09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats

11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat

12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started

14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors

15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans

16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates

18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018

19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance

21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election

23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?

25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise

27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent

29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem

31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?

33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance

34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable

36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through

37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument

38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off

41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami

42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?

46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out

49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman

50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?

52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?

52:45 College football week one recap 

1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy

1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed

1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due

1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?

1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond?

1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years

1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032

1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done

1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start

1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?

1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming

1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump

1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress

1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands

1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul

1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age

1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers?

1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated

1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public

1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie

1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?

2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling

2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50

2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?

2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board

2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama

2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974

2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake

2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon

2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?

2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support

2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew

2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over

2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it

2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon

2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?

2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken

2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed

2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon

2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon

2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon

2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing

2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents

2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last

2:45:15 Ask Chuck

2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?

2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?

2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?

2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?

3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond: the national debt has doubled from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in a decade, the Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032, and there's no political courage to touch any of it — because in a system where bipartisanship reads as betrayal, nothing gets done. His modest starting point: a 3% tax increase paired with a 3% spending cut.

The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. The fix is making local benefits visible, and finding a communicator who isn't a CEO, since tech executives are now viewed as villains. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:15 Assessing the bifurcated economy

02:45 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed

04:15 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due

05:45 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?

09:00 Could the bust come when government can't respond?

10:00 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years

12:15 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032

13:30 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done

15:15 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start

17:00 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?

18:45 An epic amount of oversight is coming

19:45 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump

22:15 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress

24:30 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands

26:30 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul

28:45 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age

31:00 How should big tech make the case for data centers?

34:00 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated

37:00 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public

39:00 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie

42:15 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?

49:15 What Walmart got right about storytelling

50:30 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50

53:00 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?

54:30 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board

56:30 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.

The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?

06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%

08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling

11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview

13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA

14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio

16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina

17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham

22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along

26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common

27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins

30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down

33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012

35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points

36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle

38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998

41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa

43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire

45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army

47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war

48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself

52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed

54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership

57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened

59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system

1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga

1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill

1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters

1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction

1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 

1:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip

1:21:00 #1 North Carolina

1:21:45 #2 Alaska

1:22:15 #3 Texas

1:23:45 #4 Ohio

1:25:30 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan

1:27:30 Ask Chuck

1:27:45 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?

1:30:00 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?

1:33:00 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?

1:35:15 College football preview

1:40:30 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.

The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.

Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered.

The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?

06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%

08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling

11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview

13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA

14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio

16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina

17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham

22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along

26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common

27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins

30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down

33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012

35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points

36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle

38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998

41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa

43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire

45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army

47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war

48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself

52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed

54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership

57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened

59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system

1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga

1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill

1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters

1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction

1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 

1:22:45 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:25:15 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well

1:27:15 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history

1:30:45 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time

1:34:45 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion

1:39:45 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks

1:42:30 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness

1:43:00 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11

1:47:15 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia

1:48:00 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc

1:49:15 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it

1:51:15 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive

1:51:45 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war

1:54:45 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us

1:59:00 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars

2:00:00 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability

2:01:15 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda

2:06:00 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted

2:08:30 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what?

2:10:45 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war

2:11:15 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works?

2:12:45 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology

2:15:45 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities

2:20:00 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip

2:20:30 #1 North Carolina

2:21:15 #2 Alaska

2:21:45 #3 Texas

2:23:15 #4 Ohio

2:25:00 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan

2:27:00 Ask Chuck

2:27:15 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?

2:29:30 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?

2:32:30 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?

2:34:45 College football preview

2:40:00 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered.

The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:30 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well

04:30 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history

08:00 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time

12:00 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion

17:00 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks

19:45 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness 

20:15 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11

24:30 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia

25:15 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc

26:30 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it

28:30 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive

29:00 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war

32:00 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us

36:15 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars

37:15 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability

38:30 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda

43:15 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted

45:45 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what?

48:00 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war

48:30 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works?

50:00 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology

53:00 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way.

The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature.

Timeline:

00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer

01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate

02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas

03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas

04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton

05:00 The Texas governor's race 

06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist

07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment?

08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign"

10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago

11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months

12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration

13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers

14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma 

15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs

16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment?

19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign

20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot"

21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14

22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan

23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska

24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana

25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved

26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami

27:00 This election is about the cost of living 

28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction

31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas?

34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night

35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary

37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running

38:00 The Hasan Piker problem

39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make

42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel

43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola

45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack

47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting

49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric

50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with

52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker

54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is

57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart

58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington

59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary

1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard

1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one excursion against Iran?

1:03:00 Lake Ontario gets more coverage than troops without weapons

1:05:00 The Nats blow a 2-0 ninth-inning lead to the Marlins

1:07:00 No bullpen help at the deadline, and here we are

1:07:00 Becoming Statler and Waldorf

1:08:00 Tuesday night live: the Massachusetts primary

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump.

The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising

05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters

06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico

07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous

10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it

12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st

14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability

15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues

15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better

16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply

16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply

18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027

18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious

19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest

19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions

20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview

21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial

22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small

23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more

24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply

25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity

25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production

26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term

27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made

27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2

28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s

29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system

29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans

30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters

30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices

32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable

33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable

33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War

34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy

34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions

35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel

36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war

36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term

37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war?

38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out?

38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO

39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win

40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves

40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism

42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it?

42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it

43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit?

44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans?

45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery

46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States

46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us

48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally

49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump

51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000

51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there

53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities

54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down

55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood

56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?”

56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community

57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact

59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed

1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education?

1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it

1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it

1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better?

1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other

1:09:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley

1:09:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one

1:10:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust

1:10:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president

1:11:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted

1:12:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901

1:13:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe

1:14:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant

1:15:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination

1:16:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives

1:16:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances

1:17:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas

1:18:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation

1:18:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic

1:19:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology

1:20:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination

1:20:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him

1:21:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism

1:22:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power

1:23:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change?

1:23:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline

1:25:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death

1:25:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported

1:27:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America

1:27:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution

1:28:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained

1:29:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme

1:30:15 Ask Chuck

1:30:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas?

1:36:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it?

1:38:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba?

1:41:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position?

1:44:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly?

1:49:00 Takeaways from first week of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump.

The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength.

Then, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck Toddcast in his final months in office and, freed from ever facing voters again, says exactly what he thinks. The headline is his reversal on capital punishment: DeWine helped write Ohio's death penalty statute as a state senator in 1981 and defended it as attorney general, but in June he called on the legislature to abolish it, saying the moral justification he once had simply no longer exists. He walks Chuck through the practical case — roughly 20 years on average from sentencing to execution, a process that structurally cannot be sped up — and the harder question a Republican has to answer about whether you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. That flows into a broader argument about criminal justice that DeWine says has been driven by emotion rather than logic: truly violent offenders are a small percentage of the prison population and those are the people who need to be removed from society, but it's in society's direct self-interest to educate and rehabilitate everyone else. He's equally out of step with his party on immigration, arguing America needs legal immigrants, that we've been educating them and then failing to keep them, that Ohio's economic gains have come from immigrants, and that they're critical to caring for an aging population. On Springfield, DeWine is direct: the Haitian population created real challenges for the community, but they work hard, and it is not in America's interest to deport people who are here and working.

The conversation turns to the economy and the state's political future. DeWine calls the Canada trade war a genuine problem for Ohio — Canada is a major customer — and argues the country needs a real balance between domestic manufacturing and importing rather than a grudge match. On the data center boom reshaping Ohio politics, he says tech companies have an obligation to invest in the communities they move into, notes the technology has improved and no longer requires as much water, and makes the case that nuclear power is what will actually have to underwrite the buildout. He and Chuck get into whether there's a genuine divide between the two factions of the Ohio GOP, and DeWine offers a thoughtful answer about how the nationalization of politics has flattened the local distinctions that once existed inside both parties — and how that nationalization is now in everyone's face every single day. He takes ownership of the COVID shutdown decisions (the buck stopped with him), assesses whether Ohio is genuinely back to purple status with both the governor and Senate races going down to the wire, weighs in on whether the state is in good hands with either Vivek Ramaswamy or Amy Acton — and, of course, whether this is finally Joe Burrow's year.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising

05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters

06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico

07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous

10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it

12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st

14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability

15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues

15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better

16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply

16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply

18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027

18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious

19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest

19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions

20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview

21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial

22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small

23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more

24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply

25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity

25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production

26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term

27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made

27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2

28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s

29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system

29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans

30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters

30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices

32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable

33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable

33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War

34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy

34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions

35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel

36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war

36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term

37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war?

38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out?

38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO

39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win

40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves

40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism

42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it?

42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it

43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit?

44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans?

45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery

46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States

46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us

48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally

49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump

51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000

51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there

53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities

54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down

55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood

56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?”

56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community

57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact

59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed

1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education?

1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it

1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it

1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better?

1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other

1:10:15 Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:11:30 More comfortable speaking out since not running for office

1:12:45 Mike’s argument against the death penalty

1:13:15 It takes 20 years on average from adjudication to execution

1:13:45 Death penalty process is not able to be sped up

1:15:15 We need to have legal immigrants admitted to America

1:16:30 We were educating immigrants, then not having them stay

1:17:15 Ohio’s economic increases have come from immigrants

1:17:45 Immigrants are critical to caring for our aging population

1:18:30 Can you be pro-life and pro-death penalty?

1:20:15 Putting an emphasis on rehabilitating prisoners

1:21:30 It’s in the self-interest of society to educate inmates

1:22:45 Emotion rather than logic & nuance drives the crime debate

1:23:45 Truly violent criminals are a very small percentage of the population

1:24:15 Violent criminals are the ones you have to get out of society

1:25:30 America goes through pro-immigration and anti-immigration phases

1:26:15 We need people who want to work

1:26:45 Haitians in Springfield created challenges, but they work hard

1:27:45 It’s not in our interest to deport people who are here and working

1:29:00 Haiti is a major challenge

1:32:00 Canada trade war is a problem, they’re a major customer for Ohio

1:33:45 Need a balance between manufacturing here and importing

1:36:00 Is there a divide in Ohio GOP between the two factions?

1:38:45 There used to be major distinctions within the parties

1:39:45 Nationalization of politics has stymied local distinctions within parties

1:40:45 The nationalization is now in everyone’s face everyday

1:43:15 Tech companies need to invest in communities where they put data centers

1:44:00 The data center tech is getting better, don’t have to use as much water

1:45:00 Need to invest in nuclear power in order to power the data center boom

1:45:45 Is Ohio in good hands with Ramaswamy or Acton as governor?

1:47:30 Shutdown decisions during COVID were the governor's choice. Buck stops with him

1:48:30 Is Ohio back to purple state status?

1:49:45 The governor and senate races will go down to the wire

1:50:15 Will this finally be Joe Burrow’s year?

1:52:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley

1:52:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one

1:53:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust

1:53:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president

1:54:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted

1:55:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901

1:56:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe

1:57:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant

1:58:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination

1:59:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives

1:59:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances

2:00:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas

2:01:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation

2:01:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic

2:02:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology

2:03:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination

2:03:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him

2:04:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism

2:05:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power

2:06:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change?

2:06:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline

2:08:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death

2:08:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported

2:10:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America

2:10:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution

2:11:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained

2:12:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme

2:13:15 Ask Chuck

2:13:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas?

2:19:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it?

2:21:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba?

2:24:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position?

2:27:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly?

2:32:00 Takeaways from first week of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck Toddcast in his final months in office and, freed from ever facing voters again, says exactly what he thinks. The headline is his reversal on capital punishment: DeWine helped write Ohio's death penalty statute as a state senator in 1981 and defended it as attorney general, but in June he called on the legislature to abolish it, saying the moral justification he once had simply no longer exists. He walks Chuck through the practical case — roughly 20 years on average from sentencing to execution, a process that structurally cannot be sped up — and the harder question a Republican has to answer about whether you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. That flows into a broader argument about criminal justice that DeWine says has been driven by emotion rather than logic: truly violent offenders are a small percentage of the prison population and those are the people who need to be removed from society, but it's in society's direct self-interest to educate and rehabilitate everyone else. He's equally out of step with his party on immigration, arguing America needs legal immigrants, that we've been educating them and then failing to keep them, that Ohio's economic gains have come from immigrants, and that they're critical to caring for an aging population. On Springfield, DeWine is direct: the Haitian population created real challenges for the community, but they work hard, and it is not in America's interest to deport people who are here and working.

The conversation turns to the economy and the state's political future. DeWine calls the Canada trade war a genuine problem for Ohio — Canada is a major customer — and argues the country needs a real balance between domestic manufacturing and importing rather than a grudge match. On the data center boom reshaping Ohio politics, he says tech companies have an obligation to invest in the communities they move into, notes the technology has improved and no longer requires as much water, and makes the case that nuclear power is what will actually have to underwrite the buildout. He and Chuck get into whether there's a genuine divide between the two factions of the Ohio GOP, and DeWine offers a thoughtful answer about how the nationalization of politics has flattened the local distinctions that once existed inside both parties — and how that nationalization is now in everyone's face every single day. He takes ownership of the COVID shutdown decisions (the buck stopped with him), assesses whether Ohio is genuinely back to purple status with both the governor and Senate races going down to the wire, weighs in on whether the state is in good hands with either Vivek Ramaswamy or Amy Acton — and, of course, whether this is finally Joe Burrow's year.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 More comfortable speaking out since not running for office

02:30 Mike’s argument against the death penalty

03:00 It takes 20 years on average from adjudication to execution

03:30 Death penalty process is not able to be sped up

05:00 We need to have legal immigrants admitted to America

06:15 We were educating immigrants, then not having them stay

07:00 Ohio’s economic increases have come from immigrants

07:30 Immigrants are critical to caring for our aging population

08:15 Can you be pro-life and pro-death penalty?

10:00 Putting an emphasis on rehabilitating prisoners

11:15 It’s in the self-interest of society to educate inmates

12:30 Emotion rather than logic & nuance drives the crime debate

13:30 Truly violent criminals are a very small percentage of the population

14:00 Violent criminals are the ones you have to get out of society

15:15 America goes through pro-immigration and anti-immigration phases

16:00 We need people who want to work 

16:30 Haitians in Springfield created challenges, but they work hard

17:30 It’s not in our interest to deport people who are here and working

18:45 Haiti is a major challenge

21:45 Canada trade war is a problem, they’re a major customer for Ohio

23:30 Need a balance between manufacturing here and importing

25:45 Is there a divide in Ohio GOP between the two factions?

28:30 There used to be major distinctions within the parties

29:30 Nationalization of politics has stymied local distinctions within parties

30:30 The nationalization is now in everyone’s face everyday

33:00 Tech companies need to invest in communities where they put data centers

33:45 The data center tech is getting better, don’t have to use as much water

34:45 Need to invest in nuclear power in order to power the data center boom

35:30 Is Ohio in good hands with Ramaswamy or Acton as governor?

37:15 Shutdown decisions during COVID were the governor's choice. Buck stops with him

38:15 Is Ohio back to purple state status?

39:30 The governor and senate races will go down to the wire

40:00 Will this finally be Joe Burrow’s year?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump.

That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems — the tariffs and the Iran war — were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center — calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He  closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country.

Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

“Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now

https://www.scaramucci.net/books

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump’s endorsement

06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters

06:45 The race was a test of Trump’s political strength & she barely won

08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey’s negatives with voters, but not the positives

09:15 It took Trump & his operation to get Graham over the finish line

09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close

10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews?

11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews?

12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes

13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote

14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed

15:30 Andrews has a strong organization & is raising real money

16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami… South Carolina may be on the map

17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham

19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general

21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump

22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest

22:30 Advisors don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump

23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record

24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear 

25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don’t

27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high

27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are

28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump

29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump’s choices

30:00 Playing the “blame Joe Biden” card won’t land with credibility

31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans

31:30 Trump’s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him

32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans

33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami

34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA

35:00 They can’t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars

35:45 It’s an old political “look over here” tactic

36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living

37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn’t

38:00 Trump’s psychology has clearly changed in term two

38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump

39:30 People aren’t as afraid to stand up to Trump now

40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful

40:45 It’s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else’s tombstone

41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump

42:15 Trump isn’t nearly as much of a “builder” as he claims to be

43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling

44:30 It’s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing

45:00 Don’t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump

46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies

47:45 Both parties stay together because they’re afraid of the other sides extremes

48:45 Nearly half the public doesn’t identify with either major party

49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties

51:30 The “left” and “right” labels end up doing the thinking for us

52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized

53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition

54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly

56:30 Every race shouldn’t have to collapse into the same two parties

57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy

58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn’t working

59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics

1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide

1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are

1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

1:12:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

1:13:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

1:15:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

1:19:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

1:20:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

1:27:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

1:30:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

1:38:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates

1:41:45 #1 JD Vance

1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio

1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump

1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley

1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul

1:51:00 Ask Chuck

1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates?

1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like?

2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties?

2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed?

2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red?

2:11:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

“Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now

https://www.scaramucci.net/books

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

05:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

06:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

08:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

12:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

13:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

20:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

23:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

31:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande pick up in Part 2 of Alabama football with Bear Bryant’s final chapter and follow the Crimson Tide through decades of dominance, decline and an eventual return to the top.

They explore Alabama’s complicated integration story, Bryant’s reinvention of the program with the wishbone offense, and the championships that cemented his place as a college football icon. Then, after Bryant’s death, Alabama begins a turbulent search for the coach who could live up to the impossible standard he left behind.

That journey eventually leads to Nick Saban. From the Drew Brees decision that could have changed Saban’s future to the philosophy he developed alongside Bill Belichick, the arrival of Lane Kiffin and the offensive transformation that extended Alabama’s dynasty, Chuck and J.R. break down how Saban built the defining college football program of the modern era.

Plus, the Kick Six, the legendary 1992 championship team, Alabama’s greatest players and coaches, and the difficult question facing the Crimson Tide today: What happens after a legend leaves?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.

The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.

Timeline:

00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field

00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%

00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.

01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 

02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris

03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to

04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump

04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?

06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open

07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition

08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption

08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?

10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned

10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?

12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story

13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032

14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0

14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick

15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane

16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling

17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy

19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 

20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028

21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?

22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?

23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan

25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane

27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency

28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president

30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot

31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation

34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable

35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both

36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy

36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran

38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states

39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest

40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?

41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race

42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 

43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America

44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy

46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage

47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff

48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t

50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere

52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance

53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted

54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine

57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president

59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?

1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins 

1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team

1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent

1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.

Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0

05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football

07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck

11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse

11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner

12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada

13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 

15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal

16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney

18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands

19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems

20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice

21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war

22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada

23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war

24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry

25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers

26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef

26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching

27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive

28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states

29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states

30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump

30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare

31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations

32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms

33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers

34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later

35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day

35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November

37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse

38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages

40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done

41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble

42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited

43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble

44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran

45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton

45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close

47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags

47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties

48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him

49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD

49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info

50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself

50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops

51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon

52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility

53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic

54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”

54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI

55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash

56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race

56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics

57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government

58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner

59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries

59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump

1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal

1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?

1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks

1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar

1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy

1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently

1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company

1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align

1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt

1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works

1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen

1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 

1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed

1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo

1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states

1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it

1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other

1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations

1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads

1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time

1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this

1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2

1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military

1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress

1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration

1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War

1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged

1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job

1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike

1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it

1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel

1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work

1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them

1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?

1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time

1:35:15 Ask Chuck

1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?

1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?

1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?

1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.

Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.

Then, former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.

Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0

05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football

07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck

11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse

11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner

12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada

13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 

15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal

16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney

18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands

19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems

20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice

21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war

22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada

23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war

24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry

25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers

26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef

26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching

27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive

28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states

29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states

30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump

30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare

31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations

32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms

33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers

34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later

35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day

35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November

37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse

38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages

40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done

41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble

42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited

43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble

44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran

45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton

45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close

47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags

47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties

48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him

49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD

49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info

50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself

50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops

51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon

52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility

53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic

54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”

54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI

55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash

56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race

56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics

57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government

58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner

59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries

59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump

1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal

1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?

1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks

1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar

1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy

1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently

1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company

1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align

1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt

1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works

1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen

1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 

1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed

1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo

1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states

1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it

1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other

1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations

1:21:30 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:23:45 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners

1:25:00 Voters keep rejecting the party in power

1:27:15 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln

1:28:15 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about

1:29:00 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve

1:32:30 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC

1:33:30 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick

1:35:00 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years

1:36:30 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change

1:37:45 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?

1:38:15 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power

1:38:45 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia

1:40:00 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in

1:40:15 Support public financing for elections

1:41:30 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions

1:43:00 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody

1:44:30 What are we getting from our massive military budget?

1:45:15 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change

1:47:00 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well

1:47:30 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems

1:48:30 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day

1:49:15 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult

1:49:45 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states

1:51:00 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership

1:53:30 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes

1:54:15 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?

1:56:30 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot

1:58:00 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside

1:59:30 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies

2:01:15 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?

2:01:45 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?

2:04:45 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors

2:06:15 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with

2:08:00 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?

2:08:30 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status

2:09:30 Ohio senate is too close to call

2:12:00 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?

2:13:15 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race

2:14:45 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win

2:16:00 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader

2:17:30 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness

2:18:15 There is abject poverty in appalachia

2:19:15 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?

2:21:45 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season

2:23:30 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM

2:25:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads

2:25:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time

2:26:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this

2:27:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2

2:27:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military

2:28:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress

2:28:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration

2:29:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War

2:30:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged

2:31:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job

2:32:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike

2:33:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it

2:34:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel

2:35:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work

2:36:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them

2:37:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?

2:39:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time

2:40:15 Ask Chuck

2:40:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?

2:44:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?

2:48:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?

2:51:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.

Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:15 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners

03:30 Voters keep rejecting the party in power

05:45 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln

06:45 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about

07:30 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve

11:00 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC

12:00 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick

13:30 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years

15:00 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change

16:15 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?

16:45 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power

17:15 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia

18:30 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in

18:45 Support public financing for elections

20:00 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions

21:30 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody

23:00 What are we getting from our massive military budget?

23:45 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change

25:30 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well

26:00 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems

27:00 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day

27:45 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult

28:15 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states

29:30 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership

32:00 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes

32:45 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?

35:00 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot

36:30 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside

38:00 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies

39:45 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?

40:15 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?

43:15 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors

44:45 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with

46:30 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?

47:00 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status

48:00 Ohio senate is too close to call 

50:30 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?

51:45 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race

53:15 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win

54:30 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader

56:00 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness

56:45 There is abject poverty in appalachia

57:45 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?

1:00:15 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season

1:02:00 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.