Finance AM

29Nov22 by Westpac Bank

The AUD and NZD rose slightly further in a US-holiday thinned overnight session, the US dollar weighed down by expectations the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes.

In a volatile session, the US dollar initially fell further following softer producer inflation data, although mixed Fedspeak and news of missiles reaching Poland caused a retracement. The S&P500 is currently up 0.8%.

The US dollar broke a three-day losing streak after early US mid-term election results did not produce the major changes expected. Bond yields were mixed, and the S&P500 is down 1.7%.

The Bank of England delivered a dovish hike, capping bond yields and helping lift the US dollar further. The S&P500 is down 0.4%.

Bond yields rose further ahead of this week’s important Fed meeting, with stronger inflation data in the Eurozone contributing. The US dollar also rose, while equities fell, the S&P500 down 0.5%.

Bond yields and the US dollar fell amid continued speculation that the Fed will slow its tightening pace, encouraged by the Bank of Canada’s decision to hike by a smaller than expected 50bp increment. Equities are lower, though, the S&P500 down 0.8%.

Risk sentiment improved without an obvious catalyst, the S&P500 up 2.7%. The US dollar fell, and bond yields rebounded.

The rebound in risk sentiment continued, the S&P500 up 2.9%. The defensive US dollar fell, and bond yields rose slightly. Stretched positioning, as well as US job openings data, likely contributed to the moves.

“Tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflationary pressures, but our job is not yet done,” Williams said Monday in remarks prepared for a speech in Phoenix. “It will take time, but I am fully confident we will return to a sustained period of price stability.”

US bond yields rose further amid hawkish Fedspeak, but that did not deter equity markets – the S&P500 closing up 1.5%. The risk-seeking mood hurt the USD.

Markets were mostly contained overnight given the US holiday. The Eurostoxx 50 closed down 1,5% amid energy shortages and recession concerns, while S&P500 futures are up 0.3%. Bond yields rebounded, and the USD is slightly higher.

US equities were contained, the S&P500 unchanged on the day. Currencies were also contained, the USD only slightly lower. Longer maturity bonds yields rose, though, perhaps speculating on the inflationary consequences of a Fed slowdown.

US jobs data was much stronger than expected, and bond yields and the US dollar rose in response. Equities initially fell, but mostly recovered to see the S&P500 close down 0.2%.

Currency markets were defensive amid news of US officials visiting Taiwan, and the S&P500 is down 0.2%. Bond rose, though, after hawkish Fed comments.

Global PMI data disappointed, weighing on sentiment. The S&P500 closed down 0.9% and bond yields fell. Currencies were mixed.

US equities were helped by mostly supportive economic data, the S&P500 closing up 1.9%. The defensive US dollar fell, while bond yields were little changed.

Risk aversion permeated markets. The S&P500 is down 1.2%, bond yields are lower, and the defensive US dollar is higher.

There were mixed reactions to the solid US jobs data. Bond yields rose as recession risks receded, but the US dollar fell slightly. Equities gyrated between initial losses and then gains, the S&P500 closing down 0.1%.

US bond yields rose sharply, partly helped by data which soothed recession concerns as well as hawkish Fed minutes. The US dollar also rose, and the S&P500 is up 0.4%.

US markets returned from the long weekend and continued to price in recession risks. Commodities are sharply lower, the defensive US dollar is higher, and bond yields are lower.

Risk aversion continued, the S&P500 down 0.9% and bond yields lower. The US dollar did not benefit, though, weighed down by lacklustre economic data.

The US dollar fell slightly, while bond yields were little changed amid little major news for markets to digest. Markets await tonight’s important US payrolls data release.

The US dollar and bond yields fell in response to softer data on the US services sector, partially retracing later following Fed Chair Powell’s comments advocating caution regarding the easing cycle.

The US dollar fell slightly, as did short maturity bond yields. Fedspeak was slightly dovish. South Korea’s declaration of martial law caused a brief bid for safe-haven assets.

The US dollar rose in the wake of the weekend’s Trump comments on the US dollar’s leading global role. Bond yields were mixed, amid solid US economic data.

The US dollar and bond yields fell, while equities rose. There was little economic data of note, and market concerns about Trump tariffs have abated.

The US dollar and bond yields fell, the S&P500 down 0.5%, amid a batch of US economic data which was mostly as expected. Month-end rebalancing and hawkish ECB-speak contributed to the moves.

The US dollar roundtripped for little net change, while bond yields rose modestly. US economic data was second-tier and mixed, while the FOMC minutes contained no major surprises.

Bond yields and the US dollar fell, and US equities rose, in response to the nomination of the US Treasury Secretary yesterday.

The US dollar rose to a two-year high, amid expectations the US economy will continue to outperform during the new Trump administration. Equities rose moderately, while bond yields were mixed but little changed.

Markets were initially affected by geopolitical jitters involving Ukraine, boosting safe haven instruments, but the moves faded to leave bond yields only slightly lower and the US dollar unchanged. The dollar bloc – CAD, AUD, and NZD, outperformed. Canada’s CPI inflation was stronger than expected.

US equities rose, the S&P500 up 0.5%, amid little major data. The defensive US dollar fell, while bond yields ranged for little net change.

The S&P500 fell 1.3% as Trump election euphoria faded, bond yields were volatile but closed slightly lower, and the US dollar closed little changed. US economic data was slightly firmer than expected.

Bond yields fell, despite firmer producer price inflation and jobless data, while the US dollar was little changed.

The week ended with slightly further reaction to the US election, the S&P500 rising 0.4% to a fresh record high and short maturity bond yields and the US dollar rising.

Initial reactions to the US election were pared overnight, with bond yields and the US dollar lower. US equities had moderate gains, the S&P500 up 0.7% to a fresh record high. Central banks in the US, UK and Sweden eased, but remained on hold in Norway.

Yesterday’s initial reactions to the US election results extended slightly overnight. The US dollar and bond yields are slightly higher, while the S&P500 is up 2.3% to a record high.

Ahead of the US election, a risk-positive mood prevailed, with bond yields and equities rising, and the US dollar falling. Stronger US services data contributed to higher bond yields.

There was little major news for markets which remained volatile ahead of US election results. The US dollar saw little net change overnight, while the AUD and NZD fell slightly.

Bond yields and the US dollar initially plunged in response to US jobs data, which was weaker than expected, but later retraced those reactions.

011124 by Westpac Bank

Bond yields are slightly higher following solid US economic data, while the US dollar is slightly lower following Eurozone data which was stronger than expected.

Bond yields were volatile but overall little changed amid mixed US economic data. The US dollar is modestly higher.

Bond yields were volatile but overall rose slightly, while the US dollar is little changed. Risk sentiment was moderately positive.

Bond yields and the US dollar rose amid little major news, against a backdrop of US election risks and markets pricing a slower Fed easing cycle. Equities fell, the S&P500 down 1.3%. The Bank of Canada cut its rate by 50bp, as was widely expected.

Markets saw only minor movements amid little major news. The US dollar is slightly higher.

Global bond yields rose as market pricing for central bank easing was pared further. The US dollar also rose.

Bond yields and the US dollar fell, while the main US equity indices made fresh record highs.

Bond yields and the US dollar rose following stronger US retail sales data. The ECB cut by 25bp and gave cautious guidance.

Bond yields are slightly lower and the US dollar is slightly higher. There was little major news, apart from UK inflation data which was softer than expected.

Markets were volatile following minor US economic data surprises, leaving bond yields slightly lower but fx little changed.

Mixed US economic data (PPI inflation, consumer sentiment) caused mixed reactions in bond yields and little net change in currencies, while equities rose.

Mixed US economic data caused mixed reactions in bond yields and little net change in currencies. Inflation data was firmer but labour data was softer.

US bond yields and the US dollar rose further. Fedspeak continued to hint at gradualism, the treasury auction was weak, and markets are cautious ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data.

US bond yields and the US dollar rose slightly amid Fedspeak which hinted at a more gradual pace of rate cuts.

US bond yields rose further as markets continued to digest last Friday’s strong US labour data. The AUD and NZD currencies underperformed, geopolitical tensions weighing.

The US dollar and bond yields rose sharply in response to US labour data which was much stronger than expected. Equities also rose.

The US dollar and bond yields rose amid solid US economic data. Oil prices rose as tension gripped the Middle East.

US labour data was stronger than expected, causing a rise in the US dollar and bond yields.

Risk aversion amid escalation of the war in the Middle East caused a flight to safe haven instruments. Bond yields fell and the US dollar rose.

Bond yields rose during the European session and again following Fed Chair Powell’s speech, while the US dollar is only slightly higher.

Bond yields fell amid slightly softer than expected US economic data and heightened tensions in the Middle East. The US dollar fell on the former but partly recovered on the latter.

Bond yields rose following stronger than expected US economic data. Chinese equities rose sharply amid discussion of further economic stimulus via fiscal measures, helping the AUD and NZD outperform.

Bond yields and the broad US dollar rose overnight despite little major economic news.

Bond yields and the broad US dollar fell in response to weaker US consumer confidence data.

Bond yields and the broad US dollar gyrated with economic data and Fedspeak, but are little changed, while equities gained slightly. The AUD and NZD outperformed.

ond yields rose slightly while the US dollar and equities closed little changed amid quarter end equity derivative position rollovers and some Fedspeak.

The US dollar weakened slightly as the previous day’s large Fed rate cut was digested, and equities rose, the S&P500 up 1.8% - a record high. The central banks of the UK and Norway remained on hold.

The US dollar and bond yields are slightly higher, and equities slightly lower, despite the US Federal Reserve cutting its policy rate by 50bp – larger than the 25bp consensus expectation. The announcement did initially cause the expected set of reactions, but these were reversed during the press conference which hinted at a more measured pace of easing ahead.

The US dollar and bond yields rose following stronger than expected US economic data on retail sales and industrial production.

The US dollar and bond yields fell slightly, markets looking ahead to the Fed decision in two days time.

The US dollar and bond yields are slightly higher, and equities slightly lower, partly retracing the previous day’s moves.

The US dollar and bond yields fell, and equities rose, following the eagerly awaited speech from Fed Chair Powell which signalled that rate cuts will start soon.

The US dollar and bond yields rose and equities fell ahead of tonight’s important speech by Fed Chair Powell. Fed speakers yesterday indicated easing will likely be more measured than what markets have priced.

The US dollar fell and equities rose amid improved risk sentiment, but bond yields are little changed. There was little major news.

Bond yields were volatile amid mixed US economic data, ending the day slightly lower. The US dollar fell, while equities rose slightly.

Bond yields, the US dollar, and equities all rose following US retail sales and job less claims data which showed a soft, rather than hard, landing for the economy is likely.

Bond yields are slightly lower, while the US dollar is slightly higher, benign US CPI data not ruffling Fed rate cut expectations much.

Bond yields and the US dollar fell, and equities rose, following softer than expected US PPI inflation data.

Bond yields fell slightly while currencies were mixed, and equities were little changed. A minor survey of US inflation expectations showed modest declines. Middle East tensions rose.

Bond yields rose slightly, while currencies were mixed and equities fell slightly. There was little major news for markets.

Markets were calmer overnight. Bond yields and the US dollar rose slightly, and the S&P500 is up 2.1%. There was little major news for markets.

The turmoil in global markets continued, bond yields and the US dollar rebounding during the NY session. Firmer ISM services data helped extend the rebound. The S&P500 is down 3.0%, following a 17% plunge in Japan’s Nikkei 225.

Bond yields, the US dollar, and equities all fell sharply following US payrolls data which was much softer than expected. The S&P500 fell 1.8% to a two-month low.

Bond yields and equities fell in response to weak US economic data, while the US dollar rose amid escalating Middle East tensions. The Bank of England cut its policy rate.

Bond yields and equities fell amid a more risk averse market mood, while currencies were mixed. Middle East tensions flared.

The US dollar rose slightly amid little major news. Bond yields were contained.

Bond yields fell on relief US inflation data was not stronger than expected. The US dollar was little changed, while equities rose.

Currencies and bond yields were volatile but are little net changed, following firmer than expected US GDP data. Equities rose slightly.

Currencies and bond yields were volatile but are little net changed, while US equities fell sharply, led by the technology sector. The Bank of Canada eased again.

The US dollar rose slightly, while bond yields were choppy but little changed. There was little major news to ruffle markets.

Bond yields rose, while the US dollar was little changed amid little major news. The S&P500 rose 1.1%.

The US dollar and bond yields rose slightly, while equities fell, amid little major news.

The US dollar and bond yields rose, while equities fell, amid US political uncertainty and minor economic data releases. The ECB held as expected and caused little reaction.

The US dollar, bond yields, and equities fell, despite firmer US industrial production data. Political uncertainty added to the mix of economic events and Fedspeak.

The US dollar and bond yields rose in response to stronger US retail sales data, but later reversed leaving bond yields slightly lower. Equities rose, the DJIA up 1.8% to a record high, fuelled by speculation the Fed will cut rates soon.

The US dollar rose slightly, while bonds were mixed. Fed Chair Powell welcomed recent data but refrained from discussing a rate path.

The US dollar and bond yields fell slightly in response to softer than expected details in the US PPI data as well as a fall in inflation expectations.