Global Data Pod

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss Western European central banks, which are still hiking post-midterms.   This podcast was recorded on November 06, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Abiel Reinhart and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the latest global inflation developments. Inflation pressures broadened in September, with both core goods and services inflation moving higher alongside firmer food and energy prices. Risks to the outlook are shifting once again as oil prices fell sharply this week, while a historically intense El Niño is starting to pass through to food prices in parts of EM. We discuss the latest US and Euro area inflation signals and the implications for inflation forecasts and monetary policy. Related Research Reports Global Inflation Monitor: Another squeeze, with broader pressuresEl Nino Tracker: Food inflation picks up in EMUS CPI & TIPS: On firmer footing Euro area: Higher headline but broadly stable coreUS: A piece of the puzzle - wages, slack and inflation  This podcast was recorded on 05 November 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5499686-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.

Incoming news reinforces the message of strength for global growth last quarter, albeit somewhat mixed with the US leading the way. Moderation is expected this quarter but robust profit growth should be the catalyst for a rotation to labor markets perking up. Downside risks can been seen in rising energy shocks, fading wealth effects, and waning fiscal impulses. Central banks remained on hold this week but signaled broadly that hikes are on deck before year-end.Speakers:Bruce Kasman, Chief EconomistJoseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research This podcast was recorded on 30 October 2026. (http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures) This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the coming change in leadership at the ECB, the direction of travel on monetary policy and the latest news on Euro area growth and inflation.   This podcast was recorded on 30 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.

Another surge in energy prices alongside business hiring that has yet to perk up materially raises the same old question: How long can consumers keep spending without real purchasing power? As long as growth is resilient, aided by strong profits and a shift to business spending, central banks will focus on sticky elevated inflation. Next week’s Fed, ECB, and BoJ will stay on hold but single hikes to come, while the BoC starts a hiking cycle. Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research This podcast was recorded on October 23, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.

Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss another week with rising sovereign bond spreads, higher energy prices and resilient growth.    This podcast was recorded on 23 October 2026.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.

A strong two quarters of growth comes with geo-divergence and some mixed signals on momentum, raising questions not about the strong past but about the future. A global rotation is projected, with the US downshifting from a boomy pace and growth in the rest of the world strengthening. Against this backdrop, both headline and underlying inflation are firming.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre continue to discuss the region’s fiscal challenges and energy price drags on growth.   This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the region’s fiscal challenges.   This podcast was recorded on October 09, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Despite the mixed messages from the sweep of global data on employment and spending, the PMIs are booming. The breadth of the rise across sectors and countries, along with a surge in the employment PMI, keeps us comfortable with our call for a cyclical lift that is joined by firming labor markets. For now, central banks remain in the New Testament and that’s a good thing.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss another volatile week with a special focus on France.    This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest global inflation developments and the path ahead. Global inflation momentum is rebounding led by a renewed rise in consumer energy inflation and an acceleration in core goods inflation, both of which likely have further to run. While moderating service inflation has kept core inflation stable at 2.7%oya, a rotation towards firmer core goods inflation, and early signs that services disinflation may now be running out of steam, point to upside risks to the outlook, particularly if energy prices remain high for longer.   This podcast was recorded on Oct 01, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5458931-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5453331-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5469568-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5446625-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting a higher path of rates. What is not expected is a strong growth dynamic that forces central banks to deliver a rate path that weakens growth, an outcome we believe is reasonable with labor markets poised to tighten.     Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss another hawkishly eventful week.   This podcast was recorded on September 24, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The week bolstered the shift toward higher rates, with the Fed joining the hiking cycle and signaling more to come. While domestic conditions are playing their usual role, there are also plenty of global factors at work—potentially leading to a larger and more synchronized global hiking cycle than currently expected. This is being reinforced by a strengthening cyclical uplift, although this modal view faces two-sided risks.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 18 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the hawkish shift that Western European central banks are progressively making.    This podcast was recorded on Sept 18, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The tide on central bank tightening has turned and we see the September hikes from the ECB, Fed, and BoJ as the start of a broad tightening cycle.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss this week’s hawkish ECB and next week’s (potentially) hawkish BoE.   This podcast was recorded on Sept 11, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Today’s employment report aligned labor demand more closely with the positive cyclical dynamics seen in both US and global activity this quarter. While there remains a concern about geopolitics and energy markets, our focus of concern is shifting to the interaction of more credit-dependent business spending and central bank tightening.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 4 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest news on growth and inflation, and preview next week’s ECB policy meeting.    This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global headline inflation cooled in July but is set to reaccelerate in August as higher energy prices reverse the recent decline. Food inflation has remained remarkably subdued, though rising pipeline pressures suggest a gradual pickup into year-end. Core inflation remains sticky at 2.7%oya, but a rotation is taking hold, with easing services inflation increasingly offset by firmer goods price inflation. We expect this dynamic to keep global inflation close to 3% and reinforce the case for further central bank tightening. Against this backdrop, next week’s US CPI report will be closely watched ahead of this month’s FOMC decision.   Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist Abiel Reinhart, US Economist Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Euro Area Economist   This podcast was recorded on Sept 3rd, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5421842-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5406573-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432155-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5381881-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

In this episode, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, Fatih Akcelik, and Khamza Sharifzoda examine the diverging inflation trajectories of Türkiye, where disinflation has stalled but not been derailed, and Kazakhstan, where the pace of disinflation has slowed. The discussion explores the underlying forces shaping inflation dynamics in both economies, the respective roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and the critical influence of inflation expectations. The speakers further consider the outlook for each central bank as policymakers assess the appropriate pace of monetary easing in the period ahead.   This podcast was recorded on 01 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432113-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5346481-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165446-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390753-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

While the soft July data made us a little nervous, the August data is rebuilding confidence in a cyclical lift. As the business cycle regains its swagger, the odds of hikes will shift back up. More structural forces are also lifting yields, as both neutral rates and term premia are adding to longer-term borrowing costs. The downside depends on how current asset prices are a function of lower borrowing costs. There will be little to echo from the Grand Tetons around Jackson Hole.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the positive growth signals out of Western Europe and whether that will push the more reluctant central banks to hike.    This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Georgia’s economy continues to defy expectations, with growth remaining exceptionally strong, despite a challenging external backdrop. In this episode, we discuss the drivers of Georgia’s resilience, including the rapid expansion of IT and services exports, fiscal discipline, strong capital inflows, and improving external buffers. With S&P recently revising Georgia’s sovereign rating outlook to positive, we explore the outlook for growth and inflation, the country’s evolving geopolitical positioning and whether strengthening macro fundamentals could ultimately pave the way for a rating upgrade. Speakers Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchNicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5350562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

A week of mixed signals on our call for a cyclical lift has us scratching our heads. The surveys for July are flashing green for a strong pickup in the pace of activity this quarter. Unfortunately, what we have viewed as the key ingredient for this lift went cold last month as US jobs came in with a thud. How much signal to take from this latest sign of weakness in US hiring will tell the tale for growth and central bank policy for 2H26.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 7 August 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The view is tracking a cyclical lift that comes with job growth, which in turn will amplify already elevated inflation concerns and spark a central bank turn toward tightening. Whether the mood around this call is shifting for the better or not is up for debate given ongoing downside worries. Against this backdrop, Chair Warsh’s performance in conveying an effective Fed policy path is also up for debate.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 31 July 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the solid 2Q26 GDP reports and the (relative) clarity of central bank speak in Western Europe.  This podcast was recorded on 30 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest inflation developments and the outlook for the second half. The pullback in energy prices delivered a sizable disinflationary impulse in June, but that inflation drag is unlikely to persist unless oil prices move lower again. Global core inflation eased in June, but owed largely to a soft US print which may be understating underlying momentum. Through the noise, global core inflation remains sticky at closer to 3%––a level we expect to be maintained during 2H26. Lower food inflation has helped to temper the energy shock, but risks are for a turn higher as El Niño intensifies.    This podcast was recorded on July 30, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5381620-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5352836-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5372703-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5370262-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5368433-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The outlook has been viewed through the lens of a strong cyclical lift clashing with a set of geopolitical drags. The past week has delivered positive news on the cycle, but this also comes with news of an intensifying energy shock and trade war. As central banks weigh these forces, they are remaining constructive on growth and thus focus is on ongoing inflation pressures.   Speaker: Bruce Kasman  Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the latest on the Western European economy, which is seeing improving growth face off against yet another energy price shock.   This podcast was recorded on 24 July, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

While there are considerable crosscurrents on both the growth and inflation fronts, our views remain squarely focused on resilient global growth (with risks biased to the upside) and a 2H26 global inflation profile that downshifts to a still elevated level.       Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks continue to discuss upside risks to growth (despite the renewed tensions in Hormuz), and they preview next week’s ECB meeting and a new UK PM.   This podcast was recorded on 17 July, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

In our forecast, which the consensus and market have come to over the past months (resilient growth, sticky inflation, hawkish central banks), the distinctiveness has diminished. However, this doesn’t stop us from worrying about things, or arguing about them. The baseline is still for continued expansion with a bit of upside risk driven by an unstoppable consumer, but downsides can still be seen in the tail.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss whether the latest data out of the Euro area raise upside risks to growth and what the Le Pen court ruling means for France.    This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair Warsh ensues after this week’s comments in Sintra.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 2 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.   This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on household purchasing power. However, monthly CPI gains have started to cool and June’s sharp decline in oil prices sets up a meaningful deceleration in headline momentum; if Brent holds near current levels, headline inflation could slide below ~2%ar and support 2H26 growth. While the difficult trade-off posed by a shock that raises inflation and lowers growth is being removed, central banks still need to contend with uncomfortably firm services price pressures and overall core inflation that remains stuck close to 3%.     This podcast was recorded on July 02, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5345242-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5354109-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5333946-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332592-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332794-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high that the expansion is on an upturn. This shifts the conversation to the next battle: If, when, and by how much will central banks need to tap the brake to get the inflation contained.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.  This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.    This podcast was recorded on June 19, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Growth resilience through 2Q, hints of a deal to get oil flowing through the Strait, and signs of firming labor markets raise the question of shifting growth risks to the upside for 2H26. A reassessment of growth and inflation risks is, in turn, sparking a rethink in central bank policies.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Despite the purchasing power squeeze from the Middle East conflict, the resilient cycle has dominated the macro landscape. Business spending on capex and hiring looks be broadening out, supporting our thesis that the cycle owes more to fading business caution than to a narrow AI boost. How well the supply side of the economy can keep pace with firming demand will tell the tale for central banks, including the Fed—which is likely to shift toward a neutral stance this month.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 5 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The global expansion is showing resilience to the energy shock as the pre-war cyclical lift we have anticipated is absorbing the loss of purchasing power. As we enter week 14 of the Strait remaining closed, should we feel better, worse, or have the same degree of caution? If the Strait opens, will the cycle accelerate or are there headwinds to still worry about for 2H26? And if not, what should this mean for central banks?   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 29 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports and signals for the path ahead. Surging energy prices pushed global headline inflation up further to 3.4%oya in April, bringing the gain since February to 1%-pt. The three-month annualized headline CPI rate jumped to 6.0%––its strongest pace since 2022––with energy prices alone adding 4%ar. Core inflation has remained sticky around 3% but we see growing risks of a break higher amid a mix of goods sector cost pressures, tightening labor markets, and firm pricing power. The signals on services inflation are mixed, with surveys suggesting a sharp loss in demand growth alongside a jump in prices.   This podcast was recorded on May 28, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5313158-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5308513-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5309828-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5300334-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

After the data in recent weeks underscoring the cyclical uplift in the global economy since the start of the year, this week’s DM flash PMIs and China data remind us that the Iran-related headwind is taking a toll and keeps downside risks alive. Absent this risk, inflation pressures are underappreciated and point to a potential central bank problem in the coming quarters.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 22 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both, but it's the latter that will have staying power and is thus fueling their hawkish shift.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 14 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to outperform growth expectations, while its external sector undergoes a structural shift toward IT and financial services that most investors are still overlooking. We then turn to the June 2026 parliamentary elections and why their outcome is directly tied to the pace of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and the prospect of opening the Turkish border for the first time since 1993. After more than three decades of conflict, a new chapter may finally be within reach in the South Caucasus.   Speakers Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy Research Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research Moderator: Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on 13 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5250547-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5207471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165451-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain cautiously on hold. The ability of the US consumer to smooth as well as they did last year is debated.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 30 April 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of energy was well-behaved, with core inflation up a modest 0.19% gain last month. Although the 3%ar 3m run-rate in core inflation remains elevated, the step-down in March reinforces central bank patience through the initial leg of this oil price spike. Inflation paths are differentiated across regions, but so are central bank reaction functions. We expect Western European central banks to tilt more hawkish in response to the energy shock than the Fed.   This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5277839-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5267518-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5261954-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look like.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 24 April 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth but a dash more inflation. The “not having your cake and eating it too” theme is back on the menu. The case for more hawkish central banks is made, most clearly for the Fed.     Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which remain large, we see supports to weather the storm. However, signs of slowing consumer spending last quarter and a March drop in surveys raise concerns.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on April 10, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit from the commodity shock.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of debate (both "should" and "will") about central bank reactions.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicating central bank reactions.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of elevated, high, and surging oil prices the key downside risks to growth. With uncertainty high, central banks will likely stay in wait-and-see mode. The degree to which cyclical context influences policy decisions is debated. A few brief remarks provided on Asian activity tracking.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihood and magnitude of second-order effects on core inflation and inflation expectations; and how central banks are likely to react to the shock. This podcast was recorded on March 12, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5216250-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5232201-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5222819-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5222602-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5223806-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5229672-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magnitude. Beyond the spillover of the conflict, activity is starting the year strong but labor markets continue to lag.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term tracking, we consider the types of shocks that could disrupt the outlook further out—with a focus on how to think about AI’s impact.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-wide industry and policy topics, including issues related to security and resilience. In this episode we discuss the group’s inaugural report on Rare Earths, we discuss the rare earth supply chain, why rare earths are critical, common myths, and the potential US playbook going forward.​ Featuring Jahangir Aziz, Co-Head of Economic Research and Head of Industry & Policy Thematics, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy.   This podcast was recorded on February 25, 2026.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5211349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week’s strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOTUS overturning of US IEEPA tariffs lays down some guardrails, we do not see it materially altering the US war on trade in aggregate. Resilient growth combined with elevated inflation make market pricing for Fed cuts in 2H26 increasingly untenable.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that recoupling is taking hold that lifts hiring this quarter even as consumer spending slows. US inflation data follows a similar pattern, with the underlying signal pointing to somewhat less firming than incorporated in our forecast. Speakers:  Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and toward labor income–driven consumer spending this year. Job market performance will also be central to presumptive Fed Chair Warsh’s ability to either deliver cuts or be stymied by a more cautious FOMC. Given the upward pressures on inflation in 1H26, inflation is less likely to be an x-factor pointing to lower Fed rates.   Speakers:  Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 6 February 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’s slide in core CPI inflation, a phase of sticky inflation reflecting common global dynamics looks to be ending and will give way to more disparate 2026 outcomes. US inflation is expected to accelerate above 3%oya as an early-year rebound combines with persistent goods price pressures. At the same time, declining goods prices and moderating wage pressures should push Euro area inflation down further to 1.9% . Early 2026 signals, including the flash Euro area HICP for January and US price surveys, lend support to our views.   This podcast was recorded on 04 February 2026.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5185055-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167500-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5196570-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5174882-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ease even if DM rates stay on hold? Euro area inflation is coming off but growth is firming and pushing the unemployment rate to record lows. In the US, Fed chair nominee Warsh is likely to push for lower rates but could find himself in the dissent in the face of strong growth and sticky high inflation.   Speaker: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 30 January 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy risks. The key missing ingredient remains labor markets. The Fed will have to find its way amid strong growth and elevated inflation this year. With personnel changes coming up, leadership questions abound.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage set for a change? Are last year’s US policies a last-year story? Are this year’s latest US policy announcements meaningful? Is the Fed in serious jeopardy? Can you believe we’re only two weeks into the new year?    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways and these are unlikely to be sustained. We discuss these drivers and the needed rotation to new drivers, while also debating how to interpret the latest data and geopolitical developments. Growth is tracking strong, but labor markets are still a key concern.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691534-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports.  Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years.  This downward trajectory is once again raising the question of whether the disinflation trend will continue into the new year. As in the past two years, we downplay the slide and look for a rebound in core inflation to a 3.1%ar in 1H26––unchanged from where it has settled since early 2024. In the US, a reversal of the data distortions due to the government shutdown  along with further tariff pass-through is set to push inflation higher in the near-term. In Europe, core inflation should continue to moderate in sympathy with softening wage inflation, though start-of-year price increases pose upside risks to service prices.   This podcast was recorded on 06 January 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167134-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5160379-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5161477-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5159323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Kicking the tiresAfter two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside risks to the 2026 outlook. Two underappreciated issues for the US are also discussed: still-to-come immigration drags and the hit to growth and inflation from health care costs. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Alexandru dive into the factors fueling investor interest across Central Asia this year. The conversation also explores the outlook for 2026, examining whether these driving forces will sustain the region’s momentum. Our speakers also discuss key economic and political risks that may impact Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the year ahead. This podcast was recorded on December 08, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5136574-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5140889-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5124410-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asia views are upgraded, but possibly with a little too much verve. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid  3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even weaker labor market data this week from the US and Western Europe. Resilience into next year depends on how well the tick weathers the tock.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 14 November 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to the Fed Governor Lisa Cook court case in January.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 7 November 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above target and we still anticipate tariff-related pressures will push it higher, with the likely peak now in 1Q26.  Outside the US, core inflation has moderated somewhat as goods inflation is not seeing the same tariff-induced bounce. However, core services inflation has yet to fully normalize, and volatile items add to the sticky core picture. Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canada Economist This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5113765-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094754-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110036-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economies on a more solid footing. Gbolahan and Katie go through takeaways for Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda. SpeakersKatherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110345-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unclear. But we maintain that there is a tension in risk markets pricing both resilience and a Fed that returns rates to neutral, with inflation looking sticky absent a more material soft patch in growth.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the global needle much.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The  global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hiring, the expansion will be on shaky ground.   This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy.   This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083938-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential mismeasurement of tech investment in the GDP accounts.  This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay the expected pothole or fill it over? The Fed is set to cut, but strong growth, high-and-rising inflation, and threats to independence complicate the path beyond.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.   This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction.   This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045284-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more. EM also needs to offer a sufficient growth pick-up to pull in flows. We also discuss China’s role as an attractor or substitute for broader EM capital flows. Greater macro stability for many EMs have also necessitated lower capital flows and enabled EM to face three big economic and funding shocks over the last 5 years. Speakers: Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5040188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and a sharp break still to come?   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing.  A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off.    Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global EconomistMichael Hanson, Senior Global Economist   This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at:https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030422-0https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0 For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing conviction in the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. We see the risk of a September easing as high, contingent upon further evidence of softening in the US labor markets.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 27 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate the forecast even further.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.