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The Fed raises rates unanimously for the first time in over three years, with 16 of 18 policymakers penciling in another hike this year. The Bank of England is set for a hawkish hold as energy shocks and food prices threaten to push inflation above 4%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan faces calls from some policymakers to deliver a half-point move when markets are only pricing in a quarter. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Why bulls have an edge in AI bubble debate, Marty Fridson Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver its first rate hike in more than three years, testing the relationship between Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Donald Trump. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged growing caverns over the U.S. deficit as bond yields remain elevated. And energy prices continue to cloud the inflation outlook. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Real or not, Trump's helicopter money drop should alarm by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Pressure is mounting on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as he testifies before Congress with 10-year yields topping 5%. The Federal Reserve begins a pivotal two-day meeting with markets expecting another rate hike. And President Trump says no new guardrails are needed for AI, even as calls grow to slow development of advanced models. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: AI is too big to slow in a geopolitical race by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The chiefs of OpenAI and Anthropic call for a slowdown in AI development amid warnings of existential risk, with OpenAI delaying its IPO until at least next year - raising questions about what a pause would mean for the chip and data center boom. Oil surges back above $108 a barrel after a Houthi attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and regional talks over the Strait of hormuz collapse. And markets price a 90% chance the Fed raises rates Wednesday. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Oil markets survived the Iran war sprint. Now comes a marathon, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is closing non 5%, a level many investors see as a potential threat to stocks. Markets are also waiting for a crucial CPI report that could determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next week. And Oracle's results ease concerns that AI spending isn't paying off. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Can Africa seize its moment in the race for critical minerals? by Andy Home Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump says the Iran war won't end before the midterms and is proposing $5,000 checks for every American, raising fresh questions for inflation and bond markets. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again as energy prices climb. And an AI researcher who resigned from Anthropic says the company and its rivals are acting irresponsibly and that the technology could pose a threat to humanity. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Is the dollar policy 'mini Mar-a-Lagos' or Whac-A-Mole?⁠, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S.-Canada trade war is escalating from tariffs to outright import bans, with Washington blocking roughly a billion dollars' worth of Canadian dairy, alcohol, motorcycles and Bombardier jets. The move follows Canadian retaliatory tariffs and how Ottawa responds next is now the focus of markets and governments around the world. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: In a global economic heatwave, beware financial wildfires, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Japan's yen surges to seven-month highs as markets price in a near-certain Bank of Japan rate rise, raising fresh questions about the carry trade. Meanwhile, Iran threatens the U.S. with economic warfare as Brent crude approaches $100 a barrel, and strong global data points to a world economy building steam. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Trump's baffling Fed threat could be gift to Warsh, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠right-wing populism⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A blowout U.S. jobs report for August keeps pressure on the Fed ahead of Friday's CPI print and a rate decision next week. meanwhile, the ECB is set to hike on Thursday, diesel hits record highs, and a far-right party is on the cusp of taking power in a German state for the first time since World War 2. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: China's cruse oil imports stayed weak in August. Can this continue?, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on right-wing populism. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Fed Chair Christopher Waller is urging policymakers to "give disinflation a chance," lowering expectations for a September rate hike. Investors are now watching the August jobs report for fresh clues on the economy. And record-high diesel prices are adding to inflation worries ahead of winter. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Hedge funds pose greater threat to US Treasuries than China ever did by Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks, bonds and oil are steadier as traders look for clues on the U.S. labor market. The yen is jumping again as speculation builds over possible intervention and higher Japanese interest rates. And Broadcom's latest forecast is reinforcing expectations for years of AI-driven investment. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: US hyperscalers' euro thirst - lifeblood or vampire? by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A global bond selloff is gathering pace as war-driven oil prices add to inflation worries. New Zealand kicks off what could be a month of global rate hikes. And strong earnings from Dell and Palo Alto Networks suggest the AI boom is still powering ahead. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: The 'real' deal - world bonds grind towards higher neutral rates ⁠by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A global bond market rout is deepening as investors fret about rate hikes and worsening fiscal conditions. G20 finance chiefs are gathering as those rising bond yields and Russia's presence at the meeting stir tensions. Plus, Shein shares tumble after a Hong Kong IPO values the company at a fraction of its former worth. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: The America's oil bonanza will outlast the Iran conflict by Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All eyes are on Jackson Hole as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his thinking on inflation and interest rates. Nvidia's blockbuster outlook reignites the AI trade, lifting tech stocks even as much of the market lags behind. Plus, France's presidential race is brining debt worries back into focus for investors 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: The US needs more aluminum - and it needs it now by Andy Home Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wall Street rewarded Nvidia after another blockbuster quarter and a bold 2027 growth forecast adding fresh fuel to the AI boom. Investors are watching Jackson Hole after fresh PCE inflation data kept pressure on the Federal Reserve. Plus, oil prices fell as markets bet diplomacy could ease disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Monetarist resurrection, or timely rethink of inflation targeting? by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen are pushing oil prices lower and calming bond markets. Investors are bracing for fresh U.S. inflation data that could shape the Fed's next move. Plus, Nvidia's earnings will test whether Wall Street still believes AI investment can keep accelerating. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Europe's autumn reckoning - bonds, budgets, billionaires by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening 50% tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles, testing one of North America's closest economic partnerships. Washington unveiled its anti-Iran financial crackdown but left key details for later. And investors are looking ahead to Nvidia earnings for clues about whether the AI boom can justify its price tag. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: The US fiscal hole has an AI problem at its core by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mark Carney is vowing dollar-for-dollar retaliation after U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed late Friday, leaving 50% tariffs on some $20 billion of Canadian imports in place. Oil dips as Scott Bessent prepares to unveil his so-called "economic D-Day" on Iran, with Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole still to come. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: US refiners face historic stress test as global crisis looms, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bond markets push Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's buyback strategy to the limit, as yields climb back toward recent highs. U.S. President Donald Trump promises an economic crackdown on Iran as oil prices head for a weekly gain. Plus, Walmart shares tumble after the retailer posts its weakest U.S. sales growth in more than six years. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Solar gives Hungary's power system vital cover from nuclear fallout by Gavin Maguire Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expands bond buybacks to calm a market rattled by rising borrowing costs. Meanwhile, America's debt tops $40 trillion for the first time, underscoring the scale of its funding challenge. Plus, Moderna reports a cancer vaccine breakthrough and sends its shares soaring. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: US relies on tactics, not strategy, to calm angry bonds by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bond yields hover near multi-decade highs as investors demand more compensation for holding long-term government debt. U.S. President Donald Trump delayed planned tariff hikes on Canadian goods as negotiations on a trade deal continue. And, Chinese robot maker Unitree surges by 600% in its stock market debut, extending investors enthusiasm around AI. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Three midweek thoughts - dodging AI, uber bulls and intervention flub, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran says it is shifting to a "fully offensive" military posture sending Brent crude back above $90 a barrel. Thirty-year bond yields are hitting multi-year highs as markets question the outlook for inflation. Tech giants are pouring money into AI infrastructure even as questions about returns remain unanswered. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Even as market clouds clear, AI investment anxiety still gnaws, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A surprise drop in U.S. retail sales has investors asking whether the American consumer is finally losing steam. As Walmart, Home Depot and Target prepare to report earnings this week, markets look for clues on whether shoppers are merely taking a breather or pulling back more decisively. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump argues higher gasoline prices are worth paying for the war with Iran, while rising Japanese bond yields highlight growing global concerns about government borrowing costs. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Smart tugs and trucks that don't sleep. Automation rewires US transport, Gavin Maguire Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A second straight soft U.S. inflation report sends the S&P 500 to a fresh record and cuts the odds of a September Fed rate hike to roughly one in three. But there's little relief at the long end of the bond market, where the Treasury sells 30-year debt at its highest yield in 25 years, reflecting persistent investor anxiety over deficits and above-target inflation. And in a Reuters exclusive, sources say the Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates as soon as September and may accelerate its pace of tightening after that. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠⁠ Today's recommended read: Central banks spearhead renewed gold rush, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Inflation cooled as expected, lowering the temperature around the Fed's next move. The U.S. government just sold 10-year debt at its highest auction yield in nearly two decades, underscoring the rising cost of borrowing. Plus new GDP figures challenge the idea that the UK remains stuck in a low-growth rut. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. ⁠Download the Reuters app here.⁠ Today's recommended read: AI creeps onto Fed radar, but footprint is small so far by Mike Dolan ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Investors push CoreWeave shares higher after the AI cloud company reported strong results and highlighted more than $100 billion in backlogged orders. Meanwhile, markets are bracing for a closely-watched U.S. inflation report that could shape the Federal Reserve's next move. And oil prices continue to climb as Red Sea attacks persist and progress in U.S.-Iran talks remains elusive. 📲 Podcasts, breaking news, and video analysis from the source. Download the Reuters app here. Today's recommended read: Three midweek thoughts - 'magnificent' banks, Japan switch, populism by Mike Dolan ⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia is reportedly working with Wall Street giants on a financing push that could funnel up to $500 billion into AI infrastructure. Oil prices are climbing again as hopes for a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran being to fade. And traders are once more trusting Japan's resolve to defend the yen as Treasury yields march higher. Today's recommended read: Trump reopens Fed battle at critical time for bond markets by Mike Dolan ⁠ Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump gives Fed Governor Lisa Cook three weeks to answer mortgage fraud allegations, with the deadline falling just before the September FOMC meeting - raising fresh questions about Fed independence under Chair Kevin Warsh. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July in a surprise miss, though a falling unemployment rate and solid construction gains tempered the reaction. All eyes now turn to Wednesday's CPI print, with oil near $83 a barrel and retail fuel prices still roughly 30% above pre-war levels. Today's recommended read: ⁠China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand by itself, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A closely watched U.S. jobs report could shape expectations for the Fed's next move on interest rates. Plus, markets are adjusting to a Federal Reserve that is saying less and letting investors do more of the guessing. And, SpaceX weathered a major lockup export without the sell-off many had expected. Today's recommended read: AI could end Wall Street's EPS obsession by Marty Fridson Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A proposed Iran deal that would give Tehrangreater control over shopping in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil below $80 a barrel. Gold has posted its biggest one-day gain in six months as investor reassess the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, Wall Street is cautious after weak chip-sector earnings and ahead of a pivotal U.S. jobs report. Today's recommended read: US-Japan action undercuts G7's historic FX role⁠ by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SpaceX and AMD beat earnings estimates but saw their shares stumble, even as the Dow and S&P 500 hit fresh records and oil prices slide. Plus, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vows to do "whatever it takes" to help Japan defend the yen. Today's recommended read: Three midweek thoughts - AI job losses, Fed's White knight and K-shaped inflation by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. manufacturing just posted its strongest growth in four years, adding to signs of economic resilience. Meanwhile, oil traders try to make sense of conflicting signals over potential Iran talks. And markets are questioning whether efforts by Tokyo and Washington will be enough to keep the yen afloat. Today's recommended read: U.S. economy is overstimulated - and bond markets fear it by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The yen jumps after a historic U.S.-Japan currency intervention. Wall Street profits are tracking their strongest growth outside a recession. Plus, oil tumbles as hopes rise for renewed U.S.-Iran talks. Today's recommended read: Iran war ushers in oil refining golden era. It won't last by Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Ethan Plotkin, Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Big Tech's spending on AI has now topped a trillion dollars and investors want to returns. Anthropic's Claude AI hacked three companies during testing. Plus, the yen remains under pressure despite intervention. Today’s recommended read: Europe makes trillion-euro bet to revive its battered industry by Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Read more from ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Amanda Cooper⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Anna Szymanski⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Fed held interest rates steady, but three officials broke ranks and voted for a hike, delivering the "family fight" Chair Kevin Warsh said he wanted. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed after fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. And Big Tech earnings split investors, with Meta and Qualcomm disappointing while Microsoft impressed. Today’s recommended read:⁠⁠⁠ The world's $1.8 quadrillion balance sheet has a simmering problem by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠. Read more from ⁠⁠⁠⁠Amanda Cooper⁠⁠⁠⁠ and⁠⁠⁠⁠ Anna Szymanski⁠⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SK Hynix's profits surged sixfold and its stock still dropped 10%. The Fed is poised to make its more unpredictable rate decision since 2018. Plus, Microsoft and Meta earnings are up tonight. Today’s recommended read:⁠ Three midweek thoughts - cresting capex, Burnham bounce and Ukraine-Iran by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠ newsletter,⁠⁠ and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠. Read more from ⁠⁠⁠Amanda Cooper⁠⁠⁠ and⁠⁠⁠ Anna Szymanski⁠⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A global chip sell-off rattles tech markets, while oil prices retreat despite tensions in the Middle East. And central banks confront fresh inflation pressures. Today’s recommended read:Central banks can't 'see through' this many inflationary risks, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠newsletter,⁠⁠and check out his columns on⁠⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠. Read more from⁠⁠Amanda Cooper⁠⁠and⁠⁠Anna Szymanski⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT soared 500% on its Shanghai debut to become the country's most valuable company at over half a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta prepare to report as cash burn concerns weigh on AI's biggest spenders, and the Fed meets Wednesday with oil retreating nearly $10 from above $100 a barrel after a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes. Today’s recommended read: Crude oil futures are pricing market adaptability, not hopeful Iran peace, Clyde Russell. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠⁠newsletter,⁠⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠. Read more from ⁠⁠Amanda Cooper⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠Anna Szymanski⁠⁠. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trump imposed new duties on 60 trading partners overnight using a forced labor justification, oil is surging past $100 on Red Sea chaos, the Fed heads into next week's meeting more divided than its been in years, and Intel just shattered Wall Street expectations on the back of the AI boom. Today’s recommended read:⁠ Who is funding America’s widening debt with the rest of the world?, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid&⁠newsletter,⁠&and check out his columns on&⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠. Read more from&⁠Amanda Cooper⁠&and&⁠Anna Szymanski⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Alphabet's cloud revenue grew more than 80% year on year and the stock still dropped 3%. Tesla burned cash too, positing its first negative free cash flow in over two years. And with Houthi militants now forcing Saudi tankers to turn around in the Red Sea, oil is pushing toward $100 a barrel - giving the ECB a headache it wasn't expecting today. Today’s recommended read:⁠ America's 'mass affluence' is bigger than you think, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid&⁠newsletter,⁠&and check out his columns on&⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠. Read more from&⁠Amanda Cooper⁠&and&⁠Anna Szymanski⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Japan's yen hits a 40-year low above 163 per dollar, putting Tokyo on intervention watch. Alphabet reports earnings after the bell tonight, kicking off hyperscaler earnings season. And Brent crude climbs again as fighting continues in the Gulf, Saudi tankers are turned back and the U.S. confirms the conflict has cost over $37 billion. Today’s recommended read:⁠Three midweek thoughts - jobs, Fed targets and volatility, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid&⁠newsletter,⁠&and check out his columns on&⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠. Read more from&⁠Amanda Cooper⁠&and&⁠Anna Szymanski⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ten days into what was already supposed to be a ceasefire reports emerge of a push to mediate yet another 10-day ceasefire in U.S.-Iran hostilities - leaving markets struggling to keep up. In the UK, bond markets stay relatively calm under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has committed to keeping UK debt stable over time, appointing John Healey as finance minister. And tariffs are back, with U.S. President Donald Trump levying 50% duties on roughly $20 billion Canadian goods including ice hockey gear, in the first use of Section 338 since the Supreme Court struck down his executive order. Today’s recommended read: ⁠Burnham kicks off UK premiership with lucky breaks. Investors hope they last, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠. Read more from ⁠Amanda Cooper⁠ and ⁠Anna Szymanski⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crude tops $90 a barrel for the first time since early June as U.S. strikes on Iran enter their ninth day and two tankers are hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are also watching Alphabet's Wednesday earnings, the first of the major hyperscalers to report. Plus, Andy Burnham is formally named Britain's new prime minister and investors wait to learn who will fill the key role of Finance Minister. Today’s recommended read: Forget crude. War pushes refiners to the brink, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Japanese chip stocks lead a broad sell-off in Asian trading as investors question whether the AI spending cycle has peaked. China's Moonshot unveils what it calls the world's largest open-source AI model as President Xi Jinping hosts a global AI cooperation conference in Beijing. And Netflix shares fall after a second consecutive quarter of disappointing sales growth. Today’s recommended read: Trump could get a lesson on Iran from an unlikely source — emus, Clyde Russell Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SpaceX has fallen back below its $135 listing price and sits more than 30% off its post-listing peak, with insiders expected to begin selling as lockup periods expire over the coming months. The company has yet to confirm a date for its first earnings report. TSMC's record 77% profit jump offers some relief to chip investors after a rocky week. Plus, the British pound climbs to a one-year high against the euro on UK finance minister speculation. Today’s recommended read: Fed flip-flops make case for less talk, Mike Dolan Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Europe's ASML raises its full-year revenue forecast, steadying sentiment around AI infrastructure spending after IBM logged its worst single-day stock drop on record. U.S. core CPI posts its first monthly decline in over six years, easing pressure on the Fed. And volatile markets and a busy IPO pipeline hand the big banks a bumper quarter. Today’s recommended read: China's latest 'shock', German auto pain and the euro/yuan pressure cooker, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A fresh escalation in the Gulf, with Iranian missile attacks on shipping and a U.S. blockade declaration, pushes oil sharply higher and overshadows today's U.S. inflation report. Headline CPI had been forecast to fall below 4%, but with oil re-accelerating, that backward-looking relief may already feel like a moot point. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says core inflation is simply "too high," and markets are now pricing almost a 50% chance of a rate hike as soon as this month. Plus, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces Congress for the first time later today. Today’s recommended read: China blunted Iran war oil shock, but can it do the same for fuels?, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil prices surge but traders aren't panicking yet as U.S.-Iran strikes escalate and Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed - even as U.S. Central Command says around 20 ships got through in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, June CPI data drops Tuesday and big bank earnings kick off a week that will test soaring tech valuations. Today’s recommended read: Cheap drones turn energy into the global economy's weak spot, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SK Hynix hits the Nasdaq today, but can it close the valuation gap with Micron? Also, Japan's Finance Ministry tells its $1.81 trillion pension fund to stop sending money abroad, rattling the yen and Japanese bonds. And Wall Street braces for a brutal Tuesday, with five of the six biggest U.S. banks reporting on the same day. Today’s recommended read: From curiosity to cornerstone - how batteries went mainstream, Gavin Maguire Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil prices jump after President Trump says the U.S. memorandum of understanding with Iran is "over," while chip stocks see a brief Asia-session rally that quickly fades. And the June Fed minutes signal a divided central bank that's in no rush to act on inflation. Today’s recommended read: Forget TACO. Trump's best Mexican food acronym is TAMALES, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil jumps after President Donald Trump says the U.S. ceasefire with Iran is over after the two sides traded attacks overnight. Chip stocks slide as China reportedly considers limiting foreign access to its top AI models and DeepSeek pursues its own chip. And FOMC minutes due later in the day arrive against a backdrop of higher bond yields. Today’s recommended read: Oil refiners' Hormuz windfall may prove short-lived, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Samsung posted a 19-fold jump in quarterly revenue overnight, but shares fell 10% as investors weigh whether the AI trade is shifting from scarcity to abundance. U.S. services activity cooled slightly but remained in expansion territory. And U.S. President Donald Trump travels to Ankara for a NATO summit, where European defense spending pledges and the U.S. troop presence in Europe are expected to be in focus. Today’s recommended read: OPEC is likely loser in Gulf’s post-war race for market share, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

OPEC+ approves another production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day, adding to market bets on a supply glut. Chip stocks are also in focus, with Samsung set to report blockbuster earnings and SK Hynix launching its Nasdaq listing. And the NATO summit puts Ukraine back in the spotlight. Today’s recommended read: OPEC+ to boost crude output, but can it deliver and who will buy?, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 forecast in a Reuters poll, taking pressure off the Fed and pushing the dollar lower. Meanwhile, chip stocks sell off as investors rotate out of AI, and Asian factory activity expands, giving global stocks their best week since May. Today’s recommended read: LME metals whipsawed by war and peace in first half of 2026, Andy Home Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Meta surges 10% after reports the company is building out a cloud business and looking to monetize excess AI computing capacity. June payrolls land a day early, with the Fed's next move riding on the numbers. And the Financial Times reports OpenAI is proposing to hand the U.S. government a 5% stake ahead of a planned IPO. Today’s recommended read: Wall Street's aging bull meets an 'everlasting' US expansion, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's Sintra conference as markets hunt for fresh policy signals and Treasury yields climb. A surprise jump in U.S. job openings for a second straight month pushes the odds of a July Fed hike to one in three, with payrolls due Thursday. And the yen hits a 40-year low against the dollar, with Japanese authorities still holding back on intervention. Today’s recommended read: Youth, task forces and AI debt - notes from the week, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a special midyear edition of Morning Bid, Mike Dolan is joined by Jamie McGeever to look back on a wild first half of 2026, with record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow, the best quarter ever for U.S. chip stocks, and the worst month on record for the Magnificent Seven. Plus, a look ahead to midterm elections, a deeply divided Fed outlook, and what a Supreme Court ruling on Lisa Cook means for the central bank. Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets reach the halfway point of 2026 with a packed and shortened week, with the June payrolls report moved to Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday. Chip stocks are sitting on their best quarter on record, but profit-taking, a possible OpenAI IPO delay, and a fresh warning from the Bank for International Settlements about the durability of the AI boom are giving investors pause. Oil markets shrug off a weekend U.S.-Iran exchange after both sides agree to resume talks, and Andy Burnham prepares to make his first major economic address as the UK's widely presumed prime minister-in-waiting. Today’s recommended read: Hormuz oil exodus sets stage for chaotic rebalancing act, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Apple announces price hikes on iPads and MacBooks, blaming surging memory chip costs, sending its stock down six percent. Reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 add to nerves around the AI trade. A vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz briefly rattles oil markets before prices resume their slide. And JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is reported to be staying on for another three years. Today’s recommended listen: Reuters Econ World - Fed talk Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Micron, one of the world's leading memory stocks, reports earnings roughly $5 billion above expectations and outlines $22 billion in customer commitments, reigniting the chip stock rally worldwide. Meanwhile, crude oil completes a dramatic round trip to pre-Iran-war levels, but two-year Treasury yields remain about 75 basis points higher than before the conflict began, suggesting the Fed's inflation challenge runs deeper than energy prices alone. Today’s recommended read: Iran peace deal no silver bullet for Fed's inflation dilemma, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A dramatic selloff in chip stocks has Wall Street asking whether the AI boom is hitting a wall. With rising bets on Fed rate hikes despite Chair Kevin Warsh ditching forward guidance, investors are bracing for more volatility. Today’s recommended read: Fed's bubble blind spot is cause for anxiety, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote, UK gilt markets are calm in the face of Keir Starmer's resignation, a signal investors are taking the UK's seventh prime minister in a decade largely in stride - for now. Meanwhile, the threat of a US rate hike hit the biggest tech stocks on Wall Street, including new IPO darling SpaceX. The sell-off was far reaching - Japan's yen hovers near a 40-year low. Today’s recommended read: Revolving-door UK leadership leaves no room for remedy, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A 60-day ceasefire framework between the U.S. and Iran gives oil markets some relief, though traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly a quarter of pre-war levels. As investors continue to measure the heat in the Middle East, over in the UK the resignation of Keir Starmer has been met with a cool reception. Many are waiting to see the details of transition. Meanwhile, the severity of El Niño is raising fresh concerns about food prices and inflation expectations. Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Today’s recommended read: Iran war triggers global race to build oil reserves, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Doubts emerge over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework after a last-minute cancellation of talks leaves oil traders on edge ahead of a long weekend. With U.S. and much of Asian markets closed for holidays, thin liquidity is amplifying price swings. The yen and SpaceX shares are also in focus. Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his debut with a hawkish hold and a notably short statement, wrong-footing markets that had hoped for a softer tone. Meanwhile, details of the U.S.-Iran deal suggest Iran may have come away with more leverage than expected, even as crude prices fall on Hormuz optimism. And a Manchester by-election could determine who becomes Britain's next prime minister. Today’s recommended read: Gulf exporters' quest to bypass Hormuz will reshape the region, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Fed day, and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, with markets watching for signals on the path ahead. Oil slides below $80 a barrel as details of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding emerge, while SpaceX briefly overtakes Microsoft in market value following its recent IPO. Today’s recommended read: Is the Iran war just an energy shock - or a turning point?, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Bank of Japan delivers a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, its highest level since 1995, yet the yen fails to rally and traders keep piling on bearish bets. Plus, Nvidia taps the bond market for the first time in five years, and SpaceX shares keep surging after last week's blockbuster IPO. Today’s recommended read: Oil markets bet Trump would chicken out on Iran. They won, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A U.S.-Iran peace framework sends oil down around 4% and lifts equity futures, but analysts caution that physical supply disruptions, insurance costs, and unresolved leverage questions mean relief for energy markets could be slow to materialize. The deal lands just as central banks in Washington, Tokyo, and London prepare for a busy week of rate decisions. Today’s recommended read: Fragile Iran deal offers oil relief, but Hormuz risks remain, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SpaceX makes its stock market debut after raising $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. Friday’s trading will be a key test for the rocket maker and Wall Street. With Anthropic, OpenAI, Alphabet and Meta all eyeing fresh capital raises, the question is whether there is enough demand to cover the supply. Today’s recommended read: Red-hot SpaceX IPO may burn retail buyers, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The ECB is widely expected to raise rates on Thursday with two more are already priced in for the year. Meanwhile, a fragile calm returns after U.S.-Iran military exchanges shook markets overnight, and Oracle falls 10% after results highlight a heavy debt load. Today’s recommended read: 'Global euro' needs more joint debt to pass muster, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil rebounds as U.S. and Iran trade fresh strikes. Wall Street braces for a inflation report expected to push the headline rate above 4%. And the SpaceX IPO, a 10-year Treasury auction, and a likely ECB rate hike round out a packed week. Today’s recommended read: Stock-pay boom amplifies US economic drumbeat, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dip buyers pile back into chip stocks. China's May exports beat forecasts, fueled by a jump in memory chip prices - raising fresh inflation concerns for the Fed. Plus, OpenAI files confidentially for an IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, the third of the mega IPOs expected this summer. Today’s recommended read: Will AI become a public utility?, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The SpaceX IPO - reported to be more than twice oversubscribed - arrives against a turbulent backdrop, with the chip sector posting its worst single-day drop of the year on Friday. A blowout May payrolls report has markets pricing in nearly two Fed rate hikes within 12 months, defying President Trump's calls for lower rates. And oil surges more than 4% after Israel and Iran trade missile strikes, adding fresh heat to the inflation outlook. Today’s recommended site: Reuters Open Interest Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. jobs report is expected to show 85,000 positions added in May and unemployment holding at 4.3%, as economists describe the labor market as a "low hire, low fire stalemate." Meanwhile, Broadcom's AI chip miss sends South Korean stocks toward their worst week since March and Blackstone caps withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund after redemptions top $4.5 billion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Broadcom's rare earnings miss sends shares down more than 10% after hours, rattling a chip sector priced for perfection. Strong U.S. jobs and activity data push markets to price in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike as soon as October, while the yen slides to its weakest against the dollar since July 2024. Today’s recommended read: First goes the Fed dot, then guidance - and then a hike?, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Microsoft says its new quantum computing chip is a thousand times more powerful than its predecessor and that a commercially viable machine could arrive by 2029 - claims scientists are calling wildly optimistic. Meanwhile, fighting resumes in the Gulf despite a technical ceasefire, alarming energy markets. And U.S. job openings surge well beyond expectations in April. Today’s recommended read: Wild stock moves beneath an eerily calm surface, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anthropic's confidential IPO filing sets off a frenzy of new listings, but Alphabet's plan to raise $80 billion in equity takes some of the shine off the excitement. Meanwhile, oil prices swing nearly five percent before retreating after Trump signals U.S.-Iran talks may still produce a deal, and U.S. factory activity hits a four-year high - raising fresh questions about inflation. Today’s recommended read: AI frenzy stokes inflation heat too, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NVIDIA unveils an AI chip for personal computers as Jensen Huang takes the stage in Taipei. Samsung adds another 10% and South Korean exports post their fastest growth since 1984. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran missile strikes resume and a hoped-for ceasefire memorandum shows no sign of progress. Today’s recommended read: US gasoline market set for fresh test after near-record stock draws, Gavin Maguire Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting in June, but Jerome Powell may still make his presence felt. His board seat runs to early 2028, making him a potential swing vote. Meanwhile, questions are growing over whether Warsh will move to scrap the dot plot and reduce the Fed's balance sheet. A move analysts warn could add volatility and a risk premium at a time when borrowing costs are already high. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, U.S. inflation hits a three-year high. Fed officials warn that AI - meant to ease inflation - might actually be making it worse. Plus, Micron and SK Hynix cross trillion-dollar valuations for the first time and a rocket built by the Jeff Bezos-owned space company Blue Origin blows up on the launchpad. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets are pricing in a U.S.-Iran deal, but U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to approve it and Iran saysit has not been finalized. Meanwhile, the Fed's inflation gauge just hit a three-year high,leaving the Fed running out of reasons not to hike. Plus, Anthropic's valuation just overtook OpenAI - funded in part by the very chipmakers it needs to build its models. Today’s recommended read: What if the AI boom goes into reverse?, Joachim Klement Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Three months into the Gulf war, renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges have sent oil back to around $100 a barrel, dashing hopes of an imminent peace deal. April PCE inflation is forecast near 3.8% - almost twice the Fed's target - with May nowcasts already above 4%. Plus, U.S. President Dondald Trump's softer tone on rate cuts is raising fresh questions about whether his administration's weaker-dollar ambitions are also being quietly shelved. Today’s recommended read: Trump Fed pivot raises dollar-policy doubts too, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Micron Technology and SK Hynix join the trillion-dollar club, Samsung is sharing the wealth - striking a deal to pay some memory chip workers bonuses of over $400,000. But as long-term U.S. borrowing costs climb, analysts warn that rising bond yields could start to weigh on equity markets. Today’s recommended read: US bonds about to bite stocks, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Weekend hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough fade after fresh American strikes on southern Iran, though markets are treating the move as a possible push toward agreement rather than escalation. Oil is up around 2% Tuesday, reversing only part of Monday's losses. Plus, fresh U.S. consumer confidence data is out today - with high fuel prices expected to have hit hard. Today’s recommended read: China's weak steel output, strong iron ore imports show structural shift, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer, energy markets face a potential crunch point in June if the Strait of Hormuz blockage remains unresolved and fuel inventories keep falling. Meanwhile, U.S. PCE inflation data due this week is expected to show headline inflation moving above the Fed's current policy rate. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia announced an $80 billion stock buyback and forecast a trillion dollars in AI chip sales — and markets shrugged. SpaceX filed for what could be the biggest IPO in history, promising Mars colonies and orbital data centers. Plus, bond markets finally price in the Iran war's inflation hit, with one analyst telling Reuters that U.S. Treasury yields now feel "unanchored." Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

*This episode was updated to remove incorrect normal Strait of Hormuz traffic figures* Oil traders are pushing back against the NACHO trade - "Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens" - sending Brent crude down around 6% on the week as positive signals emerge from U.S.-Iran talks. But differences over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and a toll on the Strait of Hormuz as well as President Trump's threat to resume bombing hangs over negotiations. Plus, Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in as Federal Reserve chair at the White House today. Today’s recommended read: Can Wall Street boom soothe workers' pain?, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia nearly doubled its earnings, forecast $91 billion in revenue above consensus, raised its dividend and announced an $80 billion buyback - and its shares still fell about 1%. SpaceX filed for its IPO with OpenAI is reportedly next. Plus, Reuters/Ipsos polling finds Republican voters evenly split on Trump's cost-of-living record, a notable marker heading into the midterms. Today’s recommended read: 'True cost of living' could be Trump's biggest headache, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia's blockbuster earnings are widely anticipated, but with the stock already up around 20% this year and the bar set sky-high, markets are bracing for volatility either way. All of this plays out against a backdrop of U.S. inflation potentially heading above 4%, rising bond yields, and a looming potential strike at Samsung that raises fresh questions about labor's place in the AI economy. Today’s recommended read: Bond yields may finally be baking in an AI world, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains above 5% even after President Trump says he called off planned strikes on Iran, with a Bank of America survey showing most fund managers expect it to climb toward 6%. NextEra's $67 billion bid for Dominion would create the third-largest U.S. energy company. And UK gilt yields edge lower after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham signals he would stick with the government's existing fiscal rules. Today’s recommended read: Warsh's arrival leaves long bonds without a safety net, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. 30-year Treasury yields reach levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis, rattling bond markets across the globe. Oil above $110 and sticky inflation add to the pressure as G7 finance chiefs meet in Paris, and markets await Nvidia earnings for the latest read on the AI spending surge. Today’s recommended read: Opaque oil deals around Hormuz test the petrodollar, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia's earnings this week are expected to confirm the AI boom's momentum, but questions linger over whether hyperscalers can sustain their massive capital spending. Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates near 6.5% and 30-year Treasury yields topping 5% for the first time since 2007 are raising alarms that the rates market is flashing warnings that stock markets appear to be ignoring. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, but markets had little to take away, with no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation hit its highest levels since 2022 and 2023, complicating the path for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and UK gilts came under pressure as a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer rattled sterling. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump flies home from Beijing after a two-day summit that delivered scant details on trade and no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Fed chair Jerome Powell's eight-year tenure ends today as Kevin Warsh inherits a divided committee. And UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a mounting leadership challenge as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham moves closer to a leadership run. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Day one of U.S. President Donald Trump's Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced more than two hours of talks and a roster of top CEOs, but no concrete trade or policy announcements. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices post their steepest monthly rise in four years, 30-year Treasury yields topped 5% for the first time since 2007. And, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair just as markets began pricing in rate hikes. Today’s recommended read: Fed may have to hike to defend its credibility, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a rebellion inside his own Labour Party as thirty-year gilt yields hit their highest since the 1990s. Today’s recommended read: G7 long bond stress intensifies, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Today’s recommended read: Warsh's red lines worry world finance by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally unacceptable." Today’s recommended read: Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate discussions. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices