The Debate

Will it be a trickle, a wave, or a tsunami? It's Election Day in the United States, with Democrats hoping to take back one or both houses of Congress. We track the turnout, gauge the mood and raise the curtain ahead of midterm results that are sure to shape the last two years of Donald Trump's second and final term. Will a US president who’s already broken norms with his maximum use of executive powers be affected by the results a little, a lot, or not at all? 

In the run-up to FRANCE 24's election night coverage, we go live to Jessica Le Masurier in Michigan, where there’s been plenty of drama in the Senate race between a progressive Arab-American Democrat and a Trump-backed Republican Congressman; Andres Espinal in Austin, Texas, where a Senate candidate facing a scandal-ridden attorney general hopes to become the first Democrat to win statewide office since 1988; Fraser Jackson in Rosslyn, Virginia, with an eye to close races in the House of Representatives there and across the country; Kethevane Gorjestani in Washington, who covered the White House under the first Trump administration; and Brussels correspondent Dave Keating, author of "The Owned Continent".

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Delphine Liou.

How far will the president of the United States press this time if Tuesday's midterm elections don't go his party's way? From "only if the Republicans win" campaign promises to a US Justice Department that's already got involved in races, will the White House weigh on the outcome? How will ballot counting go? What's changed since Donald Trump's "stop the steal" rhetoric led to the January 6, 2021 storming of the US Capitol?

How much of a stress test are these US midterm elections for a US democracy where it's individual states, not the federal government, that organise elections? Who controls not just the airwaves but also the digital space?

If 2024 was the first TikTok election, this is the first AI election. And if successive court decisions have all but eliminated campaign financing restrictions, then how much will money matter?

In 2024, Democrats told voters that democracy was on the ballot, but swing constituencies mostly shrugged and instead broke for Trump on pocketbook issues. Is democracy actually on the ballot this time? And if so, how much does it matter to citizens?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Delphine Liou.

What in the name of political free speech is off limits? Can you say whatever you want on the campaign trail, no matter how false or racist it is? 

If you're the president of the United States, the answer is apparently yes. When Donald Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed a jihadist, it barely makes news. Does exposing voters to a daily diet of slander and slop work? Does it do lasting damage to our societies?

We ask about El-Sayed vying to become the first ever Muslim elected to the US Senate and about his Republican opponent, former Congressman Mike Rogers. We also ask whether, in a swing state that's the birthplace and home of the US auto industry, voters care more about faith and identity or tariffs and inflation.

Read moreA tale of two economies: How America's cost-of-living crisis is shaping US midterm elections

Speaking of the economy, El-Sayed campaigned as a Democratic Socialist. When he won his primary, pundits predicted a progressive wave within the Democratic Party, but in the closing days of the campaign, he's also had former president Barack Obama and the moderate wing on display. It's not just which party wins these midterms – it's how far those parties move away from the political centre.

In Israel, the surprises only start with election night. They're still counting ballots in a vote that featured the highest turnout in decades, historic inroads by Arab parties and Benjamin Netanyahu's worst result since 1999. And yet, Israel's longest-serving prime minister still has a path to staying in power. As we await the definitive makeup of the next parliament, our panel breaks out the calculators and pie charts: in what scenario does Netanyahu survive? Is the issue with the right-wing Likud leader or his policies? 

Horse trading lies ahead between the 11 parties that will make up the next 120-seat Knesset. In the mix, there's nationalists on both sides of the Bibi divide, with bitter battles over religion, the nature of Israel's democracy and over whether a coalition can include the 20 percent of Arab Israelis who this time turned out in droves. Can they enter government or even strike a deal to support the opposition? After years of hardline rhetoric against Palestinians, is that even possible? In other words, is Israel about to get a lot more polarised or forge a whole new path?

Read moreArab parties ‘have woken up’: Israel's uncertain election may deliver surprise kingmakers

Produced by François Picard, Andrew Hilliar, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The turnout tells the tale. Israelis are casting ballots in their largest numbers in decades in the first general election since the October 7 attacks of 2023. The vote is seen as a referendum on the bloodiest day in the nation's history. But more broadly, what kind of Israel do citizens want? 

While traditional allies have long lost sympathy with the unending punishment inflicted on Gaza and the terror attacks by Jewish settlers in the West Bank, Israelis are instead divided over the new normal for them; how a nation that traditionally strived to avoid prolonged campaigns now lives in a semi-permanent state of war.

The prime minister has even embraced the concept of a "super Sparta state", a nod to the martial ways of the ancient Greek city. A splendid isolation that's backed up by Benjamin Netanyahu's promise to keep the United States on Israel's side. 

We ask about the other issues driving the high turnout, a turnout surely synonymous with surprises. What weight for the country's fastest-growing constituency: the ultra-Orthodox? How about the one in five citizens who are Palestinian? Their turnout is usually lower. And what about all those who have flown in from abroad? Which way will the country break?

Produced by François Picard, Maya Yataghène, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Just two days shy of his 81st birthday, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has emerged as the comeback kid. Coming from behind in the polls after a bitter campaign where he often showed his age, Lula has become the first candidate since Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s to win the presidential run-off after trailing in the first round. How did the Workers' Party leader turn a 2.2 million vote deficit against the far right's Flavio Bolsonaro into a 4.4 million vote win? Just three short weeks ago, most races at the federal and state level broke the way of conservatives and the far right.

More broadly, how did Lula break the right's winning streak in the Americas? While blasting Meta and accusing the US and its tech titans of meddling, the incumbent managed to turn around his own digital campaign during the run-off campaign.

We ask about Congressman André Janones, who organised in a hurry on Meta-owned WhatsApp. How does the powerhouse of Latin America walk the line between the United States, its top trading partner China and the rest of the planet?

Read moreLula wins Brazil election but faces uphill battle to govern

Speaking of the rest of the planet, it can be tempting to draw conclusions from Brazil's surprise result, this as the Middle East holds its breath over Tuesday's general election in Israel and as the campaign gets nastier ahead of next week's US midterms. Big elections are also coming up in Spain, Italy, Poland and here in France. Each case is of course different. So what can Lula's Brazil teach us?

Produced by François Picard, Maya Yataghène, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Brazil's future is within the margin of error ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff: most of the latest polls put the far-right's Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – a lead that's narrowed after last weekend's acrimonious debate. 

We ask about crime, inequality and the other issues that could determine this nail-biter. We also ask whether the nearly 81-year-old Lula has lost his lustre of old, whether Brazilians are ready to overlook the attempted coup conviction of 45-year-old Flavio Bolsonaro's father after he was voted out last time around in 2022, and how Brazil has changed in four years.

For starters, its embrace of social media has only snowballed. Brazil is now the planet's third-biggest user of Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. It's such a factor that Meta, the parent group of WhatsApp, Instagram and Twitter, has been branded by critics as the third party in the run-off, with Bolsonaro supporters flooding the zone with content. Will all the virtual campaigning tip the scales on Sunday?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Léonore Jaury.

Youth-driven protests have been popping up all over Europe: in Belgium, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Albania, Serbia and Greece. The spark here in France was deteriorating conditions in high schools and universities, particularly for students from underprivileged backgrounds. Meanwhile, wages aren't keeping up with inflation. The housing crisis is front and centre in places like Spain and Portugal, while corruption and democratic backsliding have sparked uproar in Albania and Serbia.

Last Saturday's unexpected violence in France was mirrored on a smaller scale in Italy's financial capital Milan. The response on both sides of the Alps was a message of firmness and the deployment of troops to stop looters tarnished by the far right as led by foreigners.

Will the Melonis and the Le Pens of the continent come out as the big winners? Will this movement mark a turning point for Europe?

Two weeks out from the US midterm elections, there's bipartisan pushback against data centres that suck the water and power out of communities. Just two years ago, ChatGPT was still a brand-new thing, and AI was admired with awe by most voters. Like in 2024, the hot-button issue in swing constituencies remains inflation, or "the price of eggs". But anxiety over the end of the month is now coupled with anxiety over the end of the world.

In 2026, AI bots and large language models write papers and churn out campaign ads. We ask about calls for regulation despite fierce resistance from tech billionaires and whether the latest wobbles from the stock market signal that the race to corner the market and scale up at warp speed may be running out of road.

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.

France didn't just erupt on Saturday – it exploded. Police were doubly overwhelmed by the turnout of the October 17 cost-of-living demonstrations, which saw two and-a-half times the crowds they expected. Officers were also overwhelmed by determined flashmobs: some radical militants hellbent on a fight, others who came for the looting. The whole world watched the assault on symbols of the Republic like the 19th-century city hall in Limoges, the usually quiet porcelain capital of France.

There's anger over rioting, but also over growing inequality, six months out from a presidential election where the extreme right and left have a huge lead in the polls.

What should the response be? How does President Emmanuel Macron's minority lame-duck government, with no money in the state coffers to throw at the problem, restore faith in leadership, institutions including the police – and democracy?

What message should be conveyed to France's youth, who sparked the movement to draw attention to deteriorating conditions in their schools? How to offer hope to the next generation?

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.

Can a flick of a switch really be enough for Donald Trump and Elon Musk to end Ukraine's hopes of holding out against Russia? With Kyiv already reeling from daily strikes by Russia's new motor-powered drones, the US decision to slow SpaceX's Starlink service was felt immediately on Wednesday, when air raid warnings failed.

We check the status of Starlink, which is reportedly back up to speed, ask if Volodymyr Zelensky has any friends in Washington that can convince an administration that prefers diesel deals with Moscow to supporting Ukraine, and whether supporters of Kyiv in Europe have run out of road.

They're striving to wean themselves off eight decades of depending on Washington for their defence. Do they have any agency? If not, is it the end of Ukraine, NATO and even the European Union as we know it?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

It all started as a bit of online satire by a few young people fed up by corruption. Clearly though, the "Cockroach" movement is no longer a laughing matter for India’s government, which has shut transport and blocked rallying points in the capital to quell the momentum of a youth-led mobilisation that's already brought down the education minister over rampant school exam cheating and is now spearheading the protests against the culling of names from voter rolls, with the electoral commission chief accused of bias. 

We ask about Abhijeet Dipke, the head of what calls itself the Cockroach Janta Party, the CJP – which is still not a bona fide political party – and left-wing student Neha Bora, the under-30 face of the latest round of protests.

India's traditional opposition is handling a movement it didn't start, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far stayed silent.

What sets India apart from Bangladesh, Nepal and elsewhere where Gen Zers have risen up against the established order? In a nation where nearly two-thirds of the population still lives in the countryside, is the mobilisation limited to middle-class city dwellers? More broadly, what future lies ahead for India's youth?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Ilayda Habip, Juliette Laffont, Charles Wente.

Will it be autumn recess to the rescue for a beleaguered French government? Ministers are no doubt counting the days until the school holidays start on Friday evening, in the hopes that an unexpected student movement disappears as quickly as it materialised. The movement sparked three weeks ago by deteriorating conditions in a Paris-area high school may indeed take a leave of absence, but what about demands for a generation that feels left behind by cost cutting? Only one party has sided vocally with the students since the very start: Jean-Luc Mélenchon's far-left France Unbowed.

We ask whether that will consolidate his second place in the polls ahead of next spring's presidential elections. That would qualify Mélenchon for the May 2 run-off against the far right's Marine Le Pen.

Have the mainstream centre-left and centre-right candidates gifted the youth vote to the 75-year-old far-left firebrand? Do they understand what's fuelling the aspirations and anxieties of a generation that's been through Covid, climate change and the sudden acceleration of artificial intelligence? What does the next generation want?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

How exposed is Saudi Arabia? Just as Iran's retaliation to Donald Trump's war suddenly exposed the vulnerability of neighbouring Gulf states, how much is Riyadh reeling from the escalation with Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis? We assess the physical and material damage from strikes on airports and oil facilities, as well as eventual repercussions for the kingdom's ability to project strength. In the age of cheap drone warfare, how much can a battle-hardened militia push against the region's richest nation?

We ask about the Houthis and the options available to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with the United States low on ammunition and hesitant to open a new front so close to midterm elections in which voters are fuming over forever wars and prices at the pump.

On that score, the whole planet is paying the price for Trump's decision to attack Iran back in February. Will global energy supply chains ever be the same? Will the Arabian Peninsula ever be the same?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The story is as underreported as it is consequential for the entire planet. Three Turkish-owned cargo ships out of Ukraine have been hit in EU waters by suspected Russian drones. One, the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan, sunk on Tuesday off Bulgaria. Ten Egyptian and Syrian crew members are missing. For its part, Ukraine has been hitting Russian tankers in the Black Sea, with no sign of a return to a UN-brokered deal to allow oil, grain and fertiliser ships to pass. 

With the United States in drawdown mode – and reports that its president's entourage is coveting commercial deals with Moscow – what's Europe to do? That same Europe is still grappling over whether the closing of a few Russian consulates is strong enough of a response to the August drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo plane in Leipzig, Germany.

So how far will Russia push Europe? How equipped are Europeans both for hybrid warfare and war on the cheap, with the Ukraine war illustrating how easy it is to mass produce the drones that can pummel cities and sap morale?

Is the threat real or exaggerated, particularly in the minds of the tens of millions who will be called on in the coming months to cast ballots in Spanish, French and Italian elections?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

For now, it's still Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel. In 2023, in the immediate aftermath of the country's worst day of bloodshed in its history, pundits predicted the quick demise of the right-wing prime minister. But on the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks, Israel's still not reckoned with the security failures on the day, the root causes of the Hamas-led terror attack, the brutal war of vengeance that followed and above all, Netanyahu is still prime minister with a fair shot at re-election. Even if the Likud leader is voted out on October 27, his most serious election rivals don't exactly advocate for a radical break when it comes to the Palestinians.

Three years on, there are trigger words, such as genocide, that make many supporters of Israel either see red or squirm.

Watch more'We were naive' about Hamas, Israeli ex-hostage Shoshan Haran says

Central to the direction Israel takes is another word: Zionism. The UK's Green Party has now gone so far as to equate it with racism. What did Zionism mean in 1948 when Israel was founded? What does it mean today? And can the concept be compatible with a lasting solution that brings peace to the Middle East?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

It’s a protest movement that a broke, lame-duck French government did not see coming. Civil servants this Tuesday joined high schoolers who are now in their third week of picketing over long-deteriorating classroom conditions. The usual recipe for wearing down movements in France has recently been to match any violence with a heavy hand, with the escalation turning the silent majority against the protesters, as was the case with the pre-Covid Yellow Vests movement. 

There has certainly been plenty of violence. But those involved are teenagers, not adults, with many pressing legitimate gripes about growing inequality in education. Some organising on Snapchat and other socials are clearly cynical about their own future prospects and ready to have it out. With France in full pre-election posturing mode ahead of polls next spring, some see pigs where others see hoodlums, with the government borrowing the far right's language and the far left focusing on police brutality.

What President Emmanuel Macron's team doesn't have this time around is what's being called magic money; the funds that French governments usually pull out of a hat to make a crisis go away. With France's highest public debt rate in a quarter of a century spooking the eurozone and beyond, no magic money will this time appear to hire more teachers or build more classrooms. So what's the answer?

Watch moreEuro falls to 17-month low against dollar on French debt concerns

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Lucy Davalou, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip and Charles Wente.

Do voters care about attempted coups? Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro is on the cusp of unseating Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the country's October 25 presidential runoff. Bolsonaro's father was jailed over the Brazilian version of the January 6 storming of the US Capitol. Up and down the ballot, other Bolsonaros have been elected in the first round as the far right surges. Is it about incumbent fatigue? Do Brazilians subscribe to Bolsonaro's "God, Homeland, Family" mantra?

And what will it take for the 80-year-old Lula to convince enough of the 21 percent of voters who stayed home last Sunday to come out for the second round? We ask how Brazil is doing on the economy, crime and the rule of law. 

Watch moreBrazil presidential election: 'Bolsonaro being ahead is a surprise,' researcher says

A democracy that was built in the wake of a military dictatorship included safeguards intended to force compromise and prevent a return to strongman rule. Is that still what Brazilians want? What does it say when the region's powerhouse seems poised to become the seventh nation in the Americas to veer to the right since the return to power last year of US President Donald Trump?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Lucy Davalou, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

France still very much takes its literary prize-giving season seriously. So when a Haitian-born Canadian writer was accused of infusing his best-selling breakout novel with artificial intelligence, it got ugly in a hurry. We wade into the Thélyson Orélien affair with its subsequent accusations of racism, previous plagiarism by the author and doubts over the accuracy of AI verification tool Pangram. 

Interesting, some still love Orélien's book. Is that a problem? The scandal is all the more heartbreaking for publishers because "It Was Either That or Die" has sold 40,000 copies since its release, this as book sales have collapsed dramatically since the commercial launch of ChatGPT four short years ago.

Read morePrix Goncourt drops Canadian-Haitian writer from top French literary prize list over AI claims

All this begs an even broader question: most of humanity only started reading and writing in the past century. Is that period over already? Future generations will certainly know how to read street signs and subtitles on a video. But if we're no longer stopping what we do to engage meaningfully with the written word, how will that change us all?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

After contagion in the Arabian Peninsula, should the entire Horn of Africa fear a domino effect? Just as US President Donald Trump’s decision to invade Iran drew the Saudis back to Yemen, did threats over the Bab al-Mandab Strait light the fuse in Ethiopia, where last week, unresolved issues between the government and its Tigray region erupted? Could a potential return to civil war draw in regional rivals?

Ethiopia didn't need pressure over the Red Sea to ignite. The breakdown of dialogue after the 2022 Pretoria agreement was always going to be a ticking time bomb for Africa's second-most populous nation.

And in four years, alliances have shifted, with neighbouring Eritrea no longer on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's side and Addis Ababa accusing Egypt and Sudan of supporting the TPLF rebels. Sudan has its own vicious civil war, where Abiy is accused of siding with the same UAE whose arming of RSF militias is well documented.

How and who can stop a return to all-out civil war in Ethiopia? Who can prevent a regional war?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

A minor bump on the French far right's road to power, or a car crash that wipes out years of rebranding? Bombshell allegations of past anti-Semitic tropes by the man Marine Le Pen has touted as her future prime minister could test her years-long effort to convince French voters that the National Rally is a party of government, rather than the fringe far-right National Front of old.

We examine the evidence and hear the denial from 31-year-old Jordan Bardella. We also chart his rise to being groomed as an eventual stand-in for the presidential frontrunner after an appeals court allowed Le Pen to run despite her corruption conviction.

We ask how the accusations land for a party that, since the October 7 attacks against Israel, has sought to portray itself as a rampart defending Frances Jewish community against anti-Semitism.

Le Pen's gut reaction was to blast the report by investigative news website Mediapart as a plot, a conspiracy. We happen to live in an age when conspiracy theories flow freely: including, of course, the conspiracy theory that Jews secretly run the world.

So what could these allegations mean for Marine Le Pen's prospects in 2027?

Produced by François Picard, Charles Wente, Rebecca Gnignati, Guillaume Gougeon and Ilayda Habip

There's a new pope in town and he's got very different ideas on what France's far right calls the defense of Christian civilisation. Leo XIV is concluding his trip to France in the eastern city of Metz, which is closely associated with a founding father of present-day European federalism, Robert Schuman. There, the head of the world's largest organised religion proudly stated that Europe's roots are Christian, dating back to the Romans, all the while hailing an EU model that transcends "us versus them" ideology and brushes aside "might is right" in favour of human rights and international law. 

We ask about the schism with the likes of French presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen and the leader of her National Rally party, Jordan Bardella. How much does Leo's brand of Catholicism clash with the values of a Eurosceptic far right that continues to make inroads in France and just over the border in neighbouring Germany? 

More broadly, how much of a moral authority can this pope and this Church be in 2026? During his four-day tour of France, Leo acknowledged the damage done by systemic child sex abuse within the Church when he met with victims. Beyond that private meeting, he drew huge crowds. How will this moment be remembered?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

It's their AI world and we're just living in it. If that's the feeling of those who suffer from AI anxiety, it may worsen watching the Chinese president's first state visit to Washington in nine years. If there's one issue that the planet's biggest superpowers agree on, it's that now is not the time for global regulation of artificial intelligence. As they sit down to a White House state dinner just hours after news that OpenAI had hacked the Australian government, we ask who will call to task the US tech titans at the table.

Read moreOpenAI AI agent breached Australian government website, PM says

While they push for more money, energy and easy access to our personal content, is the rest of the world reduced to the role of spectator?

On that score, we ask why the US president's red lines have moved over the years: rolling back tariffs on China, easing chip restrictions and blocking a ban on TikTok. National interest? Personal gain? And what about a China keen to control what citizens can or cannot access when they reach for their chatbots?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.