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Dr. James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture, and co-host of the New Books in Middle Eastern Studies podcast. James is the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title as well as Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, co-authored with Dr. Teresita Cruz-Del Rosario and Shifting Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa.
- 660 - The Politics Of ‘From The River To The Sea'
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s insistence on Israeli security control of all the land west of the Jordan River, coupled with his public rejection since October of the notion of a Palestinian state and Israel’s Gaza war conduct, has in Palestinian ears the same ring that ‘From the Sea to the River’ has in Israeli ears: the rejection of the other’s rights and eradication of the other’s national existence.
Sun, 05 May 2024 - 12min - 659 - Netanyahu Is Blinded And Cornered By The Gathering Of Increasingly Dark Clouds
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and other leading Israeli figures appear blinded and progressively cornered by the gathering of increasingly dark clouds.
Thu, 02 May 2024 - 11min - 657 - Israel Puts Gaza Ceasefire Ball In Hamas’ CourtMon, 29 Apr 2024 - 10min
- 656 - Rafah Make Or Break For Netanyahu
An Israeli ground offensive in the southern Gazan enclave of Rafah is a question of when, not if. Not because Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is oblivious to US and international pressure but because it could prove to be make or break for Israel’s embattled leader.
Sat, 27 Apr 2024 - 10min - 655 - Words Matter
Words matter. In the Israeli-Palestinian battle of narratives, they, more often than not, either are designed to thwart solutions or, by design or default, reinforce entrenched mutually exclusive positions.
Thu, 25 Apr 2024 - 16min - 654 - The Middle East Totters On The Edge Of A Cliff
Multiple overt and covert wars have pushed the Middle East to the edge of a cliff. Increased tension between Iran and Israel complicates efforts to pull the Middle East back from the abyss.
Sun, 21 Apr 2024 - 10min - 653 - Israel And Hamas See Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations As An Existential Battle
The Gaza ceasefire negotiations have all but broken down, with Israel and Hamas pursuing mutually exclusive goals.
Thu, 18 Apr 2024 - 10min - 652 - Israel And Hamas Play Whack - A-mole
Despite its devastating human and physical cost, Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas has a whack-a-mole aspect.
Mon, 15 Apr 2024 - 12min - 651 - Biden And Hamas Tie Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Up In Knots
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is tying himself up in knots as he grudgingly, and only to a limited degree, bows to US President Joe Biden’s demands. In doing so, Mr. Netanyahu is puncturing Swiss-cheese size holes into Israel’s Gaza narrative, making it easier for Mr. Biden to take him publicly to task.
Fri, 12 Apr 2024 - 16min - 650 - The Greater Middle East Is A Ticking Time Bomb
The Greater Middle East is a ticking time bomb. Generations in war-wracked Palestine, Syria, and Yemen have little, if anything, to look forward to. Moreover, discontent is mounting and could explode anytime in countries like Jordan, Egypt, and Iran.
Tue, 09 Apr 2024 - 10min - 649 - Palestinian Security Forces Are Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
Three recent attacks on Israelis shine a spotlight on the 35,000-member Palestinian security forces that the United States, Gulf countries, and much of the international community want to see in charge of on-the-ground security in post-war Gaza.
Fri, 05 Apr 2024 - 14min - 648 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Clutches At Straws
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu clutches at straws as he seeks to increase the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza while attempting to create building blocks for a compliant post-war Palestinian administration of the Strip.
Tue, 02 Apr 2024 - 17min - 647 - Aid Is At The Core Of An Israeli - Palestinian Struggle To Control Post - War Gaza.
Gaza’s population of 2.3 million are pawns in a cynical battle for control of post-war Gaza. Israel’s refusal to lift restrictions on the unfettered entry into Gaza of food, medical supplies, and other desperately needed humanitarian goods, has less to do with a stand-alone starvation policy and more with who controls distribution in the Strip. Both Israel and Hamas see control of aid distribution as a building block of who comes out on top once the guns fall silent.
Fri, 29 Mar 2024 - 15min - 646 - Netanyahu’s Walls Are Caving In
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s walls are caving in. Mr. Netanyahu’s multiple battles fall into two categories: keeping his increasingly fragile government in place and fighting a war he has already lost in the court of public opinion and possibly on the ground in Gaza if measured by the prime minister’s war goals.
Tue, 26 Mar 2024 - 16min - 645 - Rafah - Netanyahu’s Marketing Tool And Lightning Rod
The besieged Gazan city of Rafah is Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s yo-yo. A brilliant but ruthless politician, Mr. Netanyahu is in campaign mode. “The man is in the midst of an election campaign, Rafah is a marketing tool and (the Americans) are the whipping boy,” said Israeli columnist Yossi Verter.
Sun, 24 Mar 2024 - 10min - 644 - Resolving The Israeli - Palestinian Conflict Palestinians May Be More Accommodating Than Israelis
A just-published Palestinian public opinion survey offers pointers for what a successful transition from the devastating Gaza war to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have to entail.
Fri, 22 Mar 2024 - 15min - 643 - The Middle East The World’s Playground For The Privatization Of War
One just has to switch on the news to realize that mercenaries and private military companies live a life of their own and shape headlines. Chaos and mayhem dominate the streets of Haiti after Colombian mercenaries killed the president. Russia's Wagner Group played a key role in the invasion of Ukraine and at one point appeared to revolt against President Vladimir Putin. This is just to name a few recent histories shaping events. The irony is that the latest phase in the evolution of mercenaries and private military entities first emerged in the Middle East, a region racked by wars and conflict in which states like the United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Turkey backed armed to the teeth, non-state actors of different stripes.
Thu, 21 Mar 2024 - 1h 03min - 642 - Iran May Be On The Cusp Of Change. A Conversation With Arash Azizi.
A historian and political scientist at South Carolina's Clemson University, Arash Azizi argues that Iran may be on the cusp of change. It's just that the change may come from within the regime rather than from the street.
Mon, 18 Mar 2024 - 1h 03min - 641 - Biden May Not Have Enough Rope To Push His Vision Of The Middle East
This year’s US presidential elections are not the only potential hurdle confronting President Joe Biden’s multi-pronged vision for a Middle East peace once the Gaza war ends. So is Israeli intransigence, the prospect of a long-term insurgency in post-war Gaza, and increasing Saudi Chinese technological cooperation.
Fri, 15 Mar 2024 - 12min - 640 - Innocent Gazans Pay A Heavy Price For Hamas And Israel’s Disregard For Human Life
Failed efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire on the eve of Ramadan leave innocent Gazans in the lurch, highlight the gap between Israel and Hamas’ demands in negotiations, and raise the stakes for the United States.
Mon, 11 Mar 2024 - 10min - 639 - Gaza War Turns Palestine Into A Potential Middle Eastern Lightning Rod
The Gaza war has turned Palestine into a lightning rod for mounting frustration and discontent in Arab autocracies such as Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco.
Fri, 08 Mar 2024 - 09min - 638 - Weaponizing Food: Palestinians Lose Lives, Israelis Lose Humanity
A long-standing Israeli-Palestinian battlefield, food has moved centre stage. For Gazans, who are on the verge of starvation, the food fight is existential.
Thu, 07 Mar 2024 - 12min - 637 - The Battle For The Soul Of Islam A Game Of Seduction
Two recent high-profile Arab events honouring Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest and most moderate Muslim civil society movement, highlight a subtle tug-of-war over who will define ‘moderate Islam’ in the 21st century.
Thu, 29 Feb 2024 - 12min - 636 - Ceasefire Talks Are About More Than A Gaza Truce And Prisoner Exchange
A proposed temporary Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange appears designed to buy war-battered Gazans relief while enabling Israel and Hamas to claim a success.
Mon, 26 Feb 2024 - 17min - 635 - Netanyahu’s ‘Day After’ Gaza Plan Is A Non - Starter
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s plan for Gaza’s future once the guns fall silent is likely to be a non-starter. Rather than provide a pathway to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the plan aims to squash Palestinian national aspirations and ensure continued Israeli control.
Sat, 24 Feb 2024 - 12min - 634 - Soccer Incidents Call Into Question Fundaments Of Saudi - Iranian Detente
Two recent soccer incidents suggest that beyond optics little has changed in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry since China mediated the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries a year ago.
Thu, 22 Feb 2024 - 11min - 633 - Israel Puts Qatar In The Crosshairs As Hamas Reasserts Itself In Gaza
With the Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks stalled, Israel and its hardline US supporters have stepped up long-standing efforts to discredit Qatar, the main mediator between Hamas and the Israeli government.
Tue, 20 Feb 2024 - 16min - 632 - Crunch Time May Be Around The Corner As Gaza Ceasefire Talks Stall
Increasingly, the Biden administration links a Gaza ceasefire and a prisoner exchange to broader regional objectives, including Saudi recognition of Israel and the semblance of a pathway to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sun, 18 Feb 2024 - 13min - 631 - First Qatar, Now Saudi Arabia Time For Activists To Rethink
The realisation that Saudi Arabia is not Qatar may seem obvious, but it has significant meaning for the lessons rights activists and others draw from the Qatar World Cup as they prepare for a Saudi-hosted tournament in 2034.
Fri, 16 Feb 2024 - 09min - 630 - Flying Under The Radar China Tightens Grip On Uighurs
China’s northwestern province of Xinjiang has taken advantage of the international community’s focus on Gaza and US support for Israel, to tighten control of the region’s Turkic Muslim Uighur population, reshape Islam, and engage in social engineering.
Sun, 11 Feb 2024 - 13min - 629 - Blinken Finds A Substantially Altered Politics Landscape As He Tours The Middle East
US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has found a hardened political landscape as he tours the Middle East for the fifth time since the Gaza war erupted.
Thu, 08 Feb 2024 - 15min - 628 - Qatar’s Gaza War Mediation May Be A Double - Edged SwordSun, 04 Feb 2024 - 12min
- 627 - Iran Facilitates Biden’s Support For Israel
The irony of Middle Eastern geopolitics is that Israel makes it increasingly difficult for US President Joe Biden to support it, while Iran strengthens domestic US anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli hardliners.
Wed, 31 Jan 2024 - 14min - 626 - UNRWA Pronounced Guilty Until Proven Innocent. Palestinians Pay The Price.
The timing of US and Israeli allegations that United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff participated in Hamas’ October 7 attack on the Jewish state was hardly coincidental.
Mon, 29 Jan 2024 - 12min - 625 - International Court Ruling Likely To Shape Israel - Hamas Prisoner Exchange Talks
Israel and Hamas are likely to be buoyed in efforts to secure a ceasefire and a new round of prisoner exchanges by an International Court of Justice ruling that Israel’s conduct in Gaza risks acts of genocide, even though the court’s decision failed to satisfy either party.
Sat, 27 Jan 2024 - 16min - 624 - Looking For Fig Leaves - Israel And Hamas Negotiate Terms Of A Ceasefire
If one listens to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, there is only one conclusion: an end to the Gaza carnage is nowhere in sight. However, there may be more to the maneuvering on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide, notwithstanding both sides’ seemingly uncompromising positions.
Tue, 23 Jan 2024 - 12min - 623 - Hardliners Ride High In The Middle East
A recent Lebanese public opinion poll suggests there may be limits to Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah’s restraint in confronting Israel. It also suggests why Iran feels emboldened by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Sat, 20 Jan 2024 - 12min - 622 - A Casualty Of War
Turkish disciplinary action against two Israeli soccer players spotlights one more major casualty of the Gaza war beyond the 24,000 Gazan death toll, the Hamas-held hostages; and the mass Israeli arrests of West Bank Palestinians: freedom of expression.
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 - 11min - 621 - Escalating Red Sea Tensions And Citizen Boycotts Trap US In Catch - 22
Increasingly, the United States is caught in a Catch-22 with tension mounting in the Red Sea, Israel maintaining unabated its assault on the Gaza Strip, and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) possibly ruling that Israel may be committing genocide.
Sun, 14 Jan 2024 - 10min - 620 - Israeli Shift In Military Tactics Threatens To Be A Double - Edged Sword
US pressure on Israel to switch gears and focus on targetted precision strikes and killings, rather than indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip, potentially heightens the risk of the war escalating into a regional bust-up and expanding beyond the Middle East. The heightened risk suggests US efforts to allow Israel to continue attempting to destroy Hamas while minimising civilian Palestinian casualties could backfire. This would further underline that the only way of preventing an escalation, protecting innocent lives, and securing the release of Hamas-held hostages, is a ceasefire.
Wed, 10 Jan 2024 - 11min - 619 - The Gaza War Is Set To Spill Onto The Streets Of Western Cities
The question is not if but when Gaza-related violence will spill onto the streets of European and American cities. This week’s killing in Beirut of Hamas executive Saleh al-Arouri significantly enhanced the threat posed by Hamas, Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, and jihadists.
Sun, 07 Jan 2024 - 12min - 618 - History Repeats Itself With The Assassination Of A Hamas Official
History repeats itself. This week’s presumably Israeli killing in Beirut of senior Hamas official Salah al-Arouri raises the spectre of renewed tit-for-tat Palestinian and Israeli killings in third countries.
Thu, 04 Jan 2024 - 11min - 617 - Gaza War Calls Middle East De - Escalation Into Question
The jury is out on the degree to which the Gaza war threatens pre-war efforts by Middle Eastern states to freeze their differences and focus on economic and security cooperation.
Tue, 02 Jan 2024 - 11min - 616 - Netanyahu Appears Increasingly Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
Controversy over the release of Palestinian tax receipts tests the United States’ ability to pressure Israel and suggests that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s ultra-religious, ultra-conservative government may not survive an end to the Gaza war.
Sat, 30 Dec 2023 - 09min - 615 - Israel And Hamas Grapple With Egyptian Gaza Roadmap
Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the leader of Palestine Islamic Jihad, the second most significant militant Gazan group, arrived in Cairo this week for carefully timed talks with Egyptian intelligence chief General Abbas Kamel. A Palestinian source said Mr. Al-Nakhalah was discussing an end to the Gaza war that would involve an exchange of prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and reconstruction of the devastated territory. On the table was a three-stage Egyptian proposal that falls short of mutually exclusive Israeli and Palestinian demands.
Tue, 26 Dec 2023 - 12min - 614 - Israel Hamas Prisoner Talks Are Mired By Politics
One would think that heart wrenching images streaming out of the Gaza Strip suggest that Israel has Hamas over a barrel in stalled efforts to revive prisoner exchanges. Think again. Talks in the past week in Europe between senior Qatari, Israeli, and US officials, and in Cairo between Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad, the second most prominent Gazan group, and Egyptian intelligence in Cairo, suggest otherwise.
Fri, 22 Dec 2023 - 10min - 613 - Catching Flack Qatar’s Gaza Mediation Is A Balancing Act
A high-flyer at the center of efforts to negotiate temporary pauses and Israeli-Palestinian prisoner swaps, Qatar is catching flack for its relationship with Hamas that has enabled its mediation endeavour. Even so, the flack, for now, has been drowned out by the Gulf state’s indispensability, established with the tacit endorsement of the United States and Israel.
Mon, 18 Dec 2023 - 10min - 612 - Hamas Maneuvering Complicates Efforts To Secure New Prisoner Swaps
Israel wasn’t slamming the door on renewed indirect prisoner swap negotiations with Hamas when it this week barred David Barnea, the head of Mossad, the country’s foreign intelligence agency, from travelling to Qatar to explore possibilities for renewed exchanges. Instead, it was maneuvering for greater leverage in potential talks and expressing doubts about whether Hamas could deliver a second temporary truce in the Gaza war that would make further prisoner swaps possible.
Fri, 15 Dec 2023 - 14min - 611 - The Gaza War Calls Into Question The Moral Rectitude Of Western Democracies
The question is no longer if but when the United States will support a ceasefire in the Gaza war. While the need for a ceasefire to halt Gaza’s human carnage is self-evident, some drivers of the Biden administration’s debate about the timing of a ceasefire raise questions about the moral underpinnings of Western democracies.
Mon, 11 Dec 2023 - 10min - 610 - The UAE Walks An Ever - Tightening Geopolitical Tightrope
The United Arab Emirates walks a geopolitical tightrope, juggling big power rivalries and mounting regional instability fuelled by the Gaza war.
Fri, 08 Dec 2023 - 10min - 609 - The Gaza War’s Fog Complicates Separating The Wheat From The Chaff
Separating the wheat from the chaff in the Israeli-Palestinian fog of war is key to preparing for the day after the guns fall silent and resolving a conflict that constitutes a perennial regional ticking time bomb.
Mon, 04 Dec 2023 - 11min - 608 - Counterintuitive Palestinian Politics, Is Hamas Treading A Path Paved By The PLO
Spanish philosopher George Santayana didn’t have Palestine in mind when he coined the phrase, ‘history repeats itself.’ Yet, Mr. Santayana’s maxim may apply to Hamas when comparing the group’s political evolution to the 16-year-torturous road traversed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from classification by Israel and its Western allies as a terrorist organization to establishing the Palestine Authority on Israeli-occupied Palestinian land.
Fri, 01 Dec 2023 - 11min - 607 - Religious Leaders Strive To Become Peacemakers Rather Than Warmongers
A recent clash between pro-Palestinian Muslims and pro-Israeli Christians in the North Sulawesi coastal town of Bitung raised the spectre of Indonesia’s worst nightmare, inter-communal violence. In a country that prides itself on a culture of inter-communal harmony, the death of a protester set off alarm bells. “This is very worrying” said Yahya Cholil Staquf, chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest and most moderate Muslim civil society movement. Mr. Staquf, popularly known as Pak Yahya, spoke at a one-day summit in Jakarta of religious leaders, convened to define “religion’s role in addressing Middle East violence & threats to a rules-based international order.”
Tue, 28 Nov 2023 - 11min - 606 - Gaza Divides The Wheat From The Chaff Among Religious Leaders
Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel has not just divided Muslim political leaders. It’s also solicited diverse responses from religious figures and institutions, reflecting deeper divisions about what Islam stands for in the 21st century. At the core of the differences is the ability and willingness to empathise with innocent victims on both sides of the Israeli-Palestnian divide, even if the focus is on the carnage caused by Israel’s assault on Gaza, the West’s double standards, and the international community’s impotence in imposing a long-term halt to the fighting.
Fri, 24 Nov 2023 - 09min - 605 - Gaza’s Day After May Alleviate Suffering But Promises To Be No Panacea
Israel’s war on Gaza. Cracks in Western support have emerged not only because of the devastating human toll of Israel’s military campaign, including stepped-up attacks on hospitals and schools, but also due to differences on how Gaza would be governed once the guns fall silent.
Tue, 21 Nov 2023 - 14min - 604 - Israeli And Palestinian War Crimes - A Conversation With Omer Bartov
Words matter. No more so than in legal settings. Genocide is the word most associated with Israel's more than one-month-long assault on Gaza. In response to the October 7 Hamas attack against Israel, in which at least 1,200, mostly civilian, Israelis were killed. Genocide and Holocaust scholars, including those who believe that Israel has and is committing war crimes in its assault are divided about whether Israeli actions amount to genocide. Even so, they warn that Israeli actions could lead to genocide, if it not already has. What is certain is that optics streaming out of Gaza of the destruction and the plight of innocent Palestinian civilians, including large numbers of children and babies, explain the popular use of the term genocide when discussing the Israeli assault. To get some proper definitions and put things in perspective. I am joined today by Professor Omar Bartov, a world-renowned genocide and Holocaust scholar at Brown University in Rhode Island.
Sat, 18 Nov 2023 - 1h 03min - 603 - Israeli And Palestinian Obstinance, Not Settlements, Obstructs Two - State Solution
When US President Joe Biden insisted there could be no return to the status ante quo once the guns fall silent in Gaza, he revived debate about the viability of a two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Yet, for all practical purposes, Hamas’ brutal October 7 attack against Israel and Israel’s more than month-long indiscriminate bombing of Gaza have likely delayed any realistic effort to resolve the conflict.
Wed, 15 Nov 2023 - 09min - 602 - Arab And Muslim Leaders Put Limited Influence And Differences On Display
It took Arab and Muslim leaders 35 days of war to call an ‘emergency’ meeting to discuss Israel’s assault on Gaza. Their limited ability to influence developments was on public display when they finally gathered this weekend in the Saudi capital Riyadh. So were the differences that raised questions about efforts in recent years to sustainably reduce regional tensions without resolving fundamental disputes and conflicts.
Sun, 12 Nov 2023 - 09min - 601 - Whither Hamas A Conversation With Hostage Negotiator Gershon Baskin
Few bring an understanding to the table of both sides that is grounded in having mediated between Israel and Hamas rather than only having engaged with one side or the other, particularly as Qatar negotiates a release of some hostages kidnapped by Hamas on October 7. A hostage negotiator, former advisor to Israeli prime ministers, critic of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands, and an investor in East Jerusalem housing for Palestinians, Gershon Baskin is one of those few. In 2011, Mr. Baskin negotiated Hamas’ release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for 1,027 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Mr. Baskin was in touch with Hamas leaders in Gaza until a week ago. He says the release by Hamas of women, children, and elderly hostages is being negotiated on three different tracks in Qatar, Egypt, and Lebanon, countries that host exiled Hamas officials and/or have a relationship with the group. The release could involve an exchange for Palestinians in Israeli prisons and/or a temporary silencing of the guns.
Thu, 09 Nov 2023 - 1h 04min - 600 - Gaza War Drowns Out Sane Voices
Gershon Baskin may be one of the few sane voices left on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide. Mr. Baskin speaks with authority when he denounces the Israeli assault on Gaza as a war crime and Hamas for its brutal October 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,400, primarily civilian, Israelis.
Mon, 06 Nov 2023 - 10min - 599 - Israel In Gaza No Good Options
Israel’s options are central to discussions about the day after the guns fall silent in Gaza. Absent from the debate is what Palestinians want.
Fri, 03 Nov 2023 - 14min - 598 - US Gaza War Cost - Benefit Analysis May Reach Tipping PointMon, 30 Oct 2023 - 12min
- 597 - Biden’s Israeli Bear Hug Is A Double - Edged Sword
US President Joe Biden’s bear hug approach and refusal to pressure Israel more forcefully involves a complicated cost-benefit analysis as well as a crucial political battle that could not only drag the United States into another Middle East war but also change the paradigm of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.
Fri, 27 Oct 2023 - 10min - 596 - Hamas Puts Malaysia In A Bind
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is in a bind. He is caught between public support for the Palestinians, and for Hamas in significant quarters, opponents painting him as a Western and Israeli lackey, and the need to not be seen as enabling a militant organization that brutally targets civilians.
Mon, 23 Oct 2023 - 12min - 595 - Israel May Win Its Battle Against Hamas But Has Already Lost The War
Israel will likely win the Gaza war on the battlefield. Even so, it has already been defeated in the court of public opinion.
Fri, 20 Oct 2023 - 09min - 594 - Emotions Fuel Gaza War And Bury Hopes For Resolving The Israeli - Palestinian Conflict
Human beings’ most destructive instincts – survival, anger, fear, despair, and vengeance – dictate Israeli and Palestinian war strategy and policy in the wake of Hamas’ October 7 brutal attack on Israel.
Sun, 15 Oct 2023 - 09min - 593 - Middle Eastern History Repeats Itself Or Maybe It Doesn’t
If there is a lesson to be drawn from the Gaza war, it is that history repeats itself: hardliners on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide reinforce each other.
Wed, 11 Oct 2023 - 12min - 592 - The Middle East May Never Be The Same
Hamas, the Islamist militia that controls Gaza, will likely emerge a victor regardless of how the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian fighting ends.
Mon, 09 Oct 2023 - 15min - 591 - The Politics Of Saudi And Iranian SportsWed, 04 Oct 2023 - 10min
- 590 - Reforming Islam - How Many Ways To Crack An Egg - A Conversation With Andrew March.
Islamic Law is at the centre of debates about what constitutes moderate Islam and what it would take to reform Islam. Essentially two schools of thought dominate the discussion. Islam's traditional approach simply picks and chooses which elements of Sharia it opts to ignore. That is the approach adopted by autocratic rulers like Saudi Crown Prince Moham bin Salman and United Arab Emirates. President Mohamed bin Zayed. Indonesia's, Nahdlatul Ulama, the world's largest and most moderate civil society movement challenges the traditional approach. It insists that removal of outdated, obsolete, and supremacist concepts in Sharia is the only way to fortify Islam against religious and political extremism and promote political, social, and religious pluralism, religious tolerance, and democracy. My guest today, Andrew March, a University of Massachusetts Amherst professor is an Islam scholar and author of several books published last month. Andrew's last book on Muslim democracy is a translation of essays by Rached Ghannouchi, a Tunisian politician, public intellectual, religious thinker, and founder of a political party that evolved from Islamism to Muslim democracy in many ways comparable to Christian democratic parties. The book is also a philosophical discussion between the two. Mr. Ghannouchi was named one of Time's 100 most influential people in the world in 2012 and Foreign Policy’s top 100 global thinkers. Eighty-two years old, Mr. Ghannouchi is the latest high- profile figure to have been arrested on charges of incitement against state authorities by the autocratic regime of President Kais Saied. Ghannouchi went on hunger strike this week. Ghannouchi is a middle ground figure in the debate about what constitutes moderate Islam and how to reform the faith. Reform of Sharia may be one step too far for him. Yet, his evolution from Islamism or political Islam to Muslim democracy positions him as a democratic reformer. It raises the question of whether Mr. Ghannouchi and his Ennahda Party are models for groups like the Muslim Brotherhood or the exception that confirms the rule that political Islam is inflexible, rigid, and opposed to moderate interpretations of Islam and a threat to secularism. Andrew March joins me to discuss all of this.
Sat, 30 Sep 2023 - 43min - 589 - Saudi - Israeli Deal Would Be A Gamechanger But Not For The Reasons Discussed
A Saudi-Israeli agreement to establish diplomatic relations involving enhanced US commitments to Gulf security could be a game-changer for great power rivalry in the Middle East.
Wed, 27 Sep 2023 - 08min - 588 - Keeping Saudi Ultra - Conservatism Alive And Kicking Meet Sheikh Awesome
Meet Sheikh Assim Al-Hakeem, aka Sheikh Awesome, a multilingual, ultra-conservative, and charismatic Saudi cleric. Mr. Al-Hakeem is more than just any Saudi Islamic scholar. An erstwhile Friday prayer imam of a mosque in Jeddah, Mr. Al-Hakeem articulates views that at times align with those of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman but, at others, contradict the recasting of Saudi Arabia’s religious image projected by the kingdom’s de facto ruler.
Sat, 23 Sep 2023 - 20min - 587 - The Global Enduring Disorder A Conversation With Jason Pack
It's a no-brainer to suggest that we live in an increasingly polarised world. Geopolitics are polarised, so are societies. Polarisation marks the transition from a unipolar world dominated by the United States to a bipolar world with China, or more likely a tripolar world that includes India, in which middle powers assert themselves more forcibly. The polarisation is fueled by populism and civilizationalism, led by men with little regard for international law or rules of the game that would limit their freedom of action. To be fair, adherents of the rule of law also ignore international law when convenient. The result is a breakdown in conflict prevention mechanisms; the US toppling of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, despite foreseeable disastrous consequences; Russia's invasion of Ukraine; and rising racism, antisemitism, Islamophobia, and distrust and hostility towards the other as it manifests itself in anti-migrant sentiment. Polarisation is also driven by a clash between liberal and conservative values in which both sides attempt to impose their definitions of all kinds of rights. Jason Pack, my guest today, argues the coherent management of the world order has been replaced by what he calls the Global Enduring Disorder. Jason suggests that conventional geopolitical theories fail to explain a world in which many states no longer rationally pursue their long-term interests. A Middle East expert focused on Libya, Jason is the host of the Enduring Disorder Podcast out now with Goal Hanger Podcasts, a senior analyst for emerging challenges at the NATO college in Rome, and the author of Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder published in 2021 by Oxford University Press.
Tue, 19 Sep 2023 - 41min - 586 - Confusion And Uncertainty Shape Debate About US Gulf Policy
Debates about the US commitment to Gulf security are skewed by confusion, miscommunication, and contradictory policies.
Sat, 16 Sep 2023 - 11min - 585 - Libyan Floods And Fault Lines A Conversation With Ethan Chorin
Libya has figured prominently in recent headlines. These days, it's floods that have devastated Eastern Libya and killed more than 5000 people, days after a catastrophic earthquake rocked Morocco like much else. Some 10,000 people are missing. The floods could not have occurred at a worse moment for Haftar. The short-lived mutiny in June by the Wagner Group has cast a shadow over Russian backing for the rebel leader. Add to this, recent protests following a controversial meeting in Rome between the foreign ministers of Libya and Israel, raised the spectre of a disconnect between Middle East and governments and public opinion. Overall, Libya may not be the most influential player in the Middle East, but the impact of what happens in Libya resonates across the region and beyond frequently impacting the domestic policies of countries like the United States, France and Italy. My guest today, Ethan Chorin, notes that Libya, if ignored, “may be marginal for policy formation, but it's poisonous when neglected.” A former US diplomat, who served in Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East East, Ethan skipped a dinner a decade ago with US Ambassador Christopher Stevens at the US Consulate in Benghazi. Mr. Stevens and three other Americans were killed that night in an attack by Islamic militants on the consulate.
Wed, 13 Sep 2023 - 56min - 584 - Gulf Sports Diplomacy Could Enter Choppy Waters
Storm clouds may be gathering, potentially casting a shadow over Saudi Arabia's shock-and-awe sports buying spree and complicating the geopolitical and geoeconomic sports strategies of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Sun, 10 Sep 2023 - 12min - 583 - The Indonesian Presidential Election Produces An Unexpected Twist
An unexpected twist in the run-up to next year’s Indonesian presidential election puts Centrist Democratic International (CDI), the world’s largest alliance of conservative political parties, and Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest and most moderate Muslim civil society movement, in a bind.
Thu, 07 Sep 2023 - 09min - 582 - Arab Winter What Arab Winter
Protesters in Syria, Bahrain, Libya, Iran, and Israel are dashing autocratic and authoritarian hopes of a prolonged winter.
Sun, 03 Sep 2023 - 10min - 581 - The Politics Of Middle East Sports - Karim Zidan 28082023
Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and Qatar dominate sports headlines, particularly when it comes to football and golf. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's sports ambitions seem to know no limits. He's paying unprecedented sums of money to hire many of the world's top players, like Christiano Ronaldo and Neymar, in a bid to turn the Saudi Pro League into one of the world's top soccer competitions. Most recently, Saudi Arabia set eyes on Egyptian born top Liverpool player, Mohamed Saleh. The buying spree follows the controversial acquisition in 2021 of Newcastle United by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund. Moreover, Mr. Bin Salman has muscled his way into golf with the merger of PGA Tour, the organiser of the sports top events, and the Saudi backed upstart, Live Gulf. Not to be left behind, a member of the Qatari ruling family is bidding $9 billion to acquire Manchester United. If the sale goes through, it would turn the Manchester Derby into a dual between the Gulf State and the United Arab Emirates, long, a critic of Guty policies and the owner of Manchester City. All of this raises a host of questions. Why are Gulf States willing to invest huge amounts in sports? Will Gulf money change sports like football? Should states be allowed to control sports clubs or are they vital parts of civil society that should be shielded from encroachment by the state? Should democracies make human rights a qualifying condition for club ownership would to do so be hypocritical at a time that European and US adherence to human rights is backsliding. To discuss this and much more, I'm joined by Kareem Zidan, an acclaimed journalist whose Sports Politika Substack column covers the nexus of sports, politics and society.
Tue, 29 Aug 2023 - 58min - 580 - Spain’s La Liga Challenges Gulf States’ Business Model
Saudi Arabia’s stunning sports acquisition blitz, alongside Qatari and Emirati European club purchases, may reshape the beautiful game, just not in ways Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf rulers like Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani envisioned.
Fri, 25 Aug 2023 - 08min - 579 - Middle East Sports Go Global With Politics In Tow
A potential sale of storied soccer club Manchester United to a member of Qatar's ruling family could take the Manchester derby to new heights.
Mon, 21 Aug 2023 - 08min - 578 - Saudi Arabia And Israel Put A High US Price Tag On Diplomatic Relations
It’s not just Saudi Arabia that puts a high US price on diplomatic relations with Israel. So does Israel.
Thu, 17 Aug 2023 - 10min - 577 - Arab Youth Seek Certainty In Religion And Tradition
A just-published survey suggests Arab youth are returning to traditional values. The survey contrasts starkly with another, only partially released poll, in which a growing number favour religious reform.
Sun, 13 Aug 2023 - 08min - 576 - NU Indosphere
An Indonesian push for a Southeast Asian return to values rooted in an ancient Indo civilisation amounts to an innovative attempt to manage polarisation.
Wed, 09 Aug 2023 - 09min - 575 - Saudi Soccer A Game Of Geopolitics And Religion, Not Just Sports
Saudi Arabia's soccer player buying spree is about more than sports and the diversification of the kingdom's economy. It’s also about geopolitics and religion for Saudi Arabia and, at least, some of the world’s top players moving to the kingdom.
Sat, 05 Aug 2023 - 09min - 574 - The UAE The Middle East’s Teflon NationMon, 31 Jul 2023 - 09min
- 573 - A Saudi Pastime Poking The United States In The Eye
Poking the United States in the eye appears to be a Saudi pastime. In the latest incident, Saudi Arabia detained five relatives of a US resident whose family in 2020 filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania against the Saudi government in a long-standing commercial dispute involving an oil refinery on the Caribbean island of Saint Lucia, according to human rights groups.
Thu, 27 Jul 2023 - 07min - 572 - Bin Salman Toys With Religious Reform
For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, religious reform has long been a question of when rather than if. Mr. Bin Salman’s potential embrace of religious, not just social and economic reform, could have far-reaching consequences for the role of religion in Saudi Arabia and religious soft power rivalry in the Muslim world.
Sun, 23 Jul 2023 - 10min - 571 - Indian Pundits Rally In Support Of Europe's Anti - Migrant Sentimen
Indian politicians and commentators have rallied in defense of anti-migrant sentiment in Europe to forge alliances and undercut criticism of Hindu nationalism that targets minorities, foremost Muslims.
Thu, 20 Jul 2023 - 10min - 570 - Autocrats Shift Gears By Exporting Repression Of FreedomsSun, 16 Jul 2023 - 09min
- 569 - Qatar America’s Best Friend In The Gulf
A recent 27-year, four million-tonne liquified natural gas (LNG) Qatari export agreement with China, the longest in gas export history, highlights different Gulf state approaches to navigating big power rivalry between the People’s Republic and the United States.
Wed, 12 Jul 2023 - 10min - 568 - French Rioters And Palestinian Gunmen Send Similar Messages
At first, comparing Palestinian gunmen in the Israeli-occupied West Bank to rioting youth in France may resemble likening apples to pears. In many ways, it is. Yet, armed Palestinian resistance and French rioting have a common message: violence results from governmental and societal failure to acknowledge and address social, economic, political, and/or national aspirations.
Sun, 09 Jul 2023 - 09min - 567 - A Successful Saudi Sports Blitz Takes More Than Money
For the second time in a month, Saudi Arabia has discovered that money buys a lot but not everything.
Wed, 05 Jul 2023 - 10min - 566 - China And Others Grapple With Understanding What The Wagner Group Revolt Means
The sigh of relief in a swath of land stretching from China to Africa’s Atlantic coast was audible when Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch who heads the Wagner Group, a state-funded private military company, called off his mutiny against President Vladimir Putin’s military and security establishment.
Sat, 01 Jul 2023 - 10min - 565 - The US Lacks Credibility, But All Is Not Lost
A recent poll of Arab public opinion suggests US credibility has taken a hit, but all is not lost. That is if the United States realizes that Middle Easterners judge the US on glaring inconsistencies in its domestic and foreign policies rather than on its cultural, technological, and economic attributes.
Tue, 27 Jun 2023 - 10min - 564 - Modi's US Visit Spotlights America's Policy Choices
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's four-day red carpet visit to the United States constitutes a microcosm of what a 21st-world order century will likely look like.
Thu, 22 Jun 2023 - 09min - 563 - For Indonesia, Sports Diplomacy Is A Double - Edged Sword
Three months ago, I Wayan Koster, the governor of Hindu-majority Bali, made his mark on the international stage by banning an Israeli squad from participating in this year’s FIFA Under-20 World Cup. Operating at the intersection of domestic Indonesian politics, his country's foreign relations and the fuzzy lines allegedly separating sports and politics, Mr. Koster is weighing a repeat performance with a double whammy.
Mon, 19 Jun 2023 - 09min - 562 - LGBTQ Emerges As A Litmus Test For Limits Of Saudi Reforms
Saudi Arabia has turned LGBTQ rights into a litmus test for the limits of social reforms by sending mixed messages.
Thu, 15 Jun 2023 - 08min - 561 - Rebalancing US - Saudi Relations
A draft bill in the US House of Representatives that would strip PGA Tour, the organizer of golf’s flagship events, of its tax-exempt status because of its merger with a Saudi-backed rival spotlights the pitfalls of American and Saudi efforts to put relations on an even keel. So did comments by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan at the tail end of last week’s visit to the kingdom by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, laying down parameters for the Gulf state’s future engagement with the United States.
Mon, 12 Jun 2023 - 13min - 560 - Saudi Arabia’s High - Profile Sports Blitz Is Off To A Mixed Start
Since arriving in Saudi Arabia five months ago, soccer superstar Ronaldo has scored 14 goals in 16 games for his new club, Al Nassr. Yet, more was needed for Al Nassr to win the Saudi championship or advance in the Saudi Cup.
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 - 10min
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