BM Talks

++ Emergency Podcast Klaxon ++ It's happening! Bonds are selling off again! What's going on? Can politicians afford to go to party conferences when fiscal plans may be in tatters as soon as they're announced? Do you know your swap rate from your Bank Rate? What even is "The Bond Market"? We have recorded a two-part podcast special on Bonds with market expert, and friend of the show, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe to discuss all this and more. In Part One we cover: A bond is simply a tra...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks for a Q3 update from our regular guest Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe. We asked: Are energy prices going back up? How long will the AI boom last?Does Brexit matter?Will there be a UK snap election?Should the UK Treasury be divided up?What will Andy Burnham do?

We are joined once again by Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at Manchester University and co-author of the definitive "The British General Election of 2019 (Bible of General Elections)" to discuss the Makerfield by-election. He is also the new Elections Analyst for Sky News and his Substack is The Swingometer. We asked: Who is likely to win the Makerfield by-election?Who are the Makerfield voters? What is the path to victory for Labour and for Reform?What role will Rupert...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Kallum Pickering. He is Chief Economist at Peel Hunt and a columnist for The Telegraph. We asked: What is the economic outlook given the Iran war?How do we monitor the air pockets that might show up when the rubber hits the road and the supply shortage manifests in the markets?What would a US/Iran deal look like? Is the Chinese Yuan going to replace the US Dollar as the reserve currency?Why do you see no Bank of England rate hikes ...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks for a Q2 update from Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe. We asked: How long will the energy shock last?How is the conflict in the Middle East part of the US National Security Plan?How does this compare to the Tanker Wars of the 1980s and the Oil Embargo of the 1970s?How will interest rate markets respond?Could we see a currency crisis and capital controls?What is happening to market liquidity? Have we seen the top in US stock markets...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks once again by Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe.

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at Manchester University and co-author of the definitive "The British General Election of 2019 (Bible of General Elections)". We asked him: - Who is likely to win the Gorton & Denton by-election? - What is the path to victory for the Greens, Labour and Reform respectively? - What would be a good result for Keir Starmer? - What would be a bad result for the Labour Party?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Bill Dinning. He is Chief Investment Officer of W1M, the UK wealth and investment manager formed in 2024 through the merger of Waverton Investment Management and London and Capital Group. Bill was previously Head of Investment Strategy at Coal Pension Trustees and prior to that at Kames Capital in Edinburgh. We asked: Are marketd underestimating the inflationary impact of tariffs?Is there still value in the US markets given the meteo...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Mike Bell. Mike is an independent macro strategist who spent a decade at JP Morgan Asset Management where he led international investment teams and advised institutional clients on the economic outlook across asset classes. He studied Social and Political Sciences at Cambridge University and is a CFA Charterholder. We asked: Why do you think the Bank of England will cut rates further?What drives the difference between UK and Eurozone in...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Silvana Tenreyro. Silvana sat on the Bank of England's MPC from 2017 until 2023 and is a professor of Economics at the LSE. We asked: What is the biggest lesson from her time on the MPC which covered the aftermath of the Brexit vote along with Covid and the war in Ukraine?Is central bank credibility at risk?Does the Bernanke Review of the Bank of England go far enough?How should we think of the "neutral rate" of interest?How usefu...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Mark Mcvitie, Director of the Labour Growth Group. With around 100 Labour MPs as members, the group is 'committed to tearing down the barriers to growth'. Mark worked in communications in the financial services sector before moving into political campaigning. We asked: What is the Labour Growth Group's core mission? How does it work with other Labour factions? Is it a "pro-Starmer" group? In the lead up to the Budge...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dame Harriett Baldwin, MP for West Worcestershire who served as Chair of the Treasury Select Committee and is now Shadow Business and Trade Minister. Prior to joining parliament she was Head of Currency Management at JP Morgan Investment Management. We asked: How do you assess the UK's fiscal risks right now?Do the current fiscal rules command credibility in the markets?Do you think UK gilts retain safe haven status?Should the Treasury ...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Alex Patelis, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis between 2019-2024. Alex also worked in investment banks including as Managing Director of Global Research at Merrill Lynch and studied under Ben Bernanke for his PhD from Princeton. We asked: Ten years ago, Greece voted No in a referendum to a bailout, only for the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to perform the exact opposite three weeks lat...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights. She is an expert in sanctions and trade policy with a focus on oil markets in the Middle East. Her substack has the ever-more relevant name of "Weaponized Economy". We asked: What happens to the oil price given the Iran/Israel conflict?What will be the response of the GCC countries and China?How will Trump's trade policies affect GDP? Can sanctions ever really work?&nbs...

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dr Nigel Bowles, who taught American politics and history at Oxford and Edinburgh universities, along with authoring many books such as "Government and Politics of the United States". We asked: Does the US Constitution prevent an authoritarian President?Can the US President remove the Federal Reserve Chair? Are tariffs the exclusive power of the executive branch?Is Trump a genuine threat to the rule of law?Are American...

We talk to Meyrick Chapman, Principal and Founder of Hedge Analytics Ltd, about: How should we look at the US trade balance?What was the "glitch" in The Matrix on Liberation Day?What does the Moody's downgrade mean for US debt?Where could systemic risk emerge?Why does the market respond dramatically to known unknowns?

We asked Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe: What next for the S&P500?What is the Eurodollars market and why does it matter?Is Trump trying to accelerate a long term rebalancing of the global economy?Where could systemic risk emerge?What countries are vulnerable in a new era for foreign policy?

Rob Ford, Professor of Politics at Manchester University and co-author of Brexitland, talks to us about: - What will happen in the 3 by-elections - What this means for the UK General Election - The new division between voters - Why Nigel Farage isn't done yet - The outlook for UK politics

This is an episode from our archives. We spoke to Kweku Adoboli, the former UBS trader who went to prison for rogue trading that was uncovered in 2011. In the summer of 2018, having served his time, he spoke to us about the mechanics of marketing making and prop trading in ETFs and other Delta One products. He explained how he used proxies for volatility to hedge positions and how this can lead to hidden leverage within the financial system. He has a unique perspective of trading throu...

We asked Hugh: What assets does he want to own this year ?What does he think about inflation?What was his favourite trading day? Which policymaker is getting it right? He shares how he was once under attack by Robert Mugabe as well as waxing biblical from his Caribbean island.

We asked: Will China invade Taiwan?Can China meet its growth target?What does China think of Liz Truss?What is Xi Jinping's ideology?What are China's demographic challenges?And finally... what is the best programme on Chinese TV?

We asked: Will there be a UK recession this year?Will Working From Home solve the Productivity Puzzle?Is Rishi Sunak doing a good job?Who is his favourite UK Chancellor? How has business journalism changed?And of course... what's his favourite joke?

We asked: Is Gold still an inflation hedge?When is Gold a safe haven?How does Gold fit into a portfolio?How does Gold compare to Crypto? How liquid is the Gold marketHave central bank holdings of Gold changed?

Former British Ambassador to the United States, Sir Christopher Meyer talks to us about the upcoming US elections, the role of China, the UK under Boris Johnson and the future of the European Union. He explains the greatest challenges he faced in his term as Ambassador, including the 9/11 terror attacks, as well as the greatest leaders he ever met. We asked: Who will win the US mid-term elections?What is Joe Biden really like and will he lose to Trump in 2024?What relationship s...

We asked: What happens to inflation?Can central banks hold their nerve?What does the post-pandemic economy look like?Do investors still need bonds in their portfolio?Where are the opportunities in Emerging Markets?What is the future of the EU?

We asked: What does the future of asset management look like?Where do ETFs fit in?Can blockchain revolutionise the industry?How has the virtual world worked during the pandemic?In the search for yield, where do the opportunities lie? What advice can you give someone starting out in the industry?What are the prospects for the Union of the United Kingdom?

We asked: What can we learn from the response to the Spanish Flu?Are we going back to the inflation of the 1970s?How does the Technological Revolution compare to the Industrial Revolution?Are central banks and governments pursuing MMT?What happened to the Bond Vigilantes? Philip Coggan writes the Bartleby column in the Economist. He started a life in journalism when they used typewriters. He has experienced seismic change in journalism, and his latest book, “More: The 10,000-Year Rise...

Helen asked about China, NZ approach to them, how aggressive will China be and can it drive a wedge between NZ and Australia? NZ has always had a good relationship with China, the Five Eyes has morphed into making political statements not intelligence ones. NZ is in ANZUS, ok it’ somewhat on ice as far as NZ goes but when John was PM he sent their SAS to Afghanistan. We, along with Britain and many others observe a one China policy, i.e. acknowledging g their territorial rights, ...

We asked: How has QE evolved since the financial crisis?What are we to make of increased borrowing by governments?What is the major source of systemic risk today?What is causing wobbles in the bond market?How far can we make a comparison between 2020 and 2008?What will happen to the US Dollar?What is the outlook for stocks, bonds and alternative assets?

We asked: What is the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol?What happened over Article 16 and why?What are the immediate implications for NI businesses? How much friction is there between EU vs UK, UK vs ROI etc?Will we see a United Ireland and Independent Scotland in 10 years?Will we return to violence?Our speakers are from either side of the debate.

We asked: What is going to happen to inflation, interest rates and volatility?What will the Fed do?What measure of inflation is the best one to follow?What is the risk from investing in mortgage securities?What part does convexity play in interest rate markets?How did you trade last March?Where is there now value in the markets?

We asked: What does the post pandemic world look like?What sectors will struggle and which will notWas the massive intervention of March 2020 a massive bail out?What advice would you give the Fed?What will happen to Europe with leadership changes?Britain after Brexit?What will Biden achieve?

We asked: Are stockmarkets bubbly?What next in UK politics after Brexit?What sectors will outperform and which will struggle?How has technology changed the markets? How will The City adapt to the new normal?

We asked: What are the challenges facing the fund management industry? Is ESG a bubble or is it here to stay? What does Brexit mean for the City?Has the government done enough to save small businesses?How do music rights work as an alternative asset?What advice would she give investors?For a full breakdown of the half hour podcast, see below: 01:00 - What challenges face the fund management industry? 02:57 - Passive management has seen the rise of mega firms, can boutiques survive...

We asked CJ Mahoney, the former Deputy United States Trade Representative under Robert Lighthizer in the Trump Administration: Will China tariffs be renegotiated?Will the UK or EU get a trade deal with US?What will Biden’s flagship policy be, given a 50-50 Senate?What was the Trump administration’s greatest achievement?What happens to the Republican Party post-Trump?What is the biggest geopolitical risk out there?In response, he discusses the outlook for relations with China, the chances of a...

In this episode of BM Talks we are joined by Sir Paul Tucker who reveals: Why central banks are struggling to communicate their actionsWhat QE is doing needs to be examinedHow QE works must be better explainedDebt needs to be termed outHow Shadow Banks remain a significant risk to the marketHow fiscal policy can coordinate but not dominate monetary policy"We should be relying on the central banks to do what they definitely can do and using the fiscal authority to do something that they ...