Stock Market Updates

Start of Earnings Season to Drive Markets as Interest Rate, Currency and Crude Worries Persist

Major U.S. stock indexes retreated from their all-time highs as investors locked in gains. The Dow Jones dropped 0.66%, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.22% following their record-breaking sessions. This pullback was heavily driven by heightened energy price volatility and lingering inflation anxieties.

Long-term U.S. bond yields soared to levels not seen since 2002, with the 30-year Treasury yield scaling to 5.66% and the 10-year note touching 5.37% in early trading. Heavy pressure in the fixed-income sector initially rattled equities, though yields moderately pared back their daily gains following a solid $39 billion government auction of 10-year notes.

Global energy benchmarks remained elevated, with Brent crude stabilising around the $102 per barrel threshold. Persistent anxiety regarding attacks on supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz continues to bolster prices, creating a structural undercurrent of inflation worries that is complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary trajectory.

EURO fell about 0.6% to near 1.119. French fiscal stress, Spain's snap election and Brent above $100 are weighing on the euro.

The RBI MPC hiked the repo rate by 25bps for the first time since Feb’2023 to 5.5%, citing hardening inflation and the re-escalation of the West Asia crisis and the resulting hardening and volatility in global crude prices.

It also changed the stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘calibrated tightening’, indicating that rate cuts are off the table and there would be further hikes or a pause in the coming months.

The rupee depreciated 36 paise to close at a five-month low of 96.78, marking its second-weakest close on record and underperforming most Asian currencies. Sentiment weakened after the RBI adopted a hawkish stance amid renewed inflation concerns. A rebound in crude oil prices and heightened risk aversion added to the pressure, keeping dollar bulls firmly in control.

TCS is going to report Q2 FY27 results today, after market hours, with the board also due to consider a second interim dividend. The market expects revenue growth of about 0.5% QoQ and 2.8% YoY, broadly stable margins versus Q1, and TCV of $10–11 billion. The focus is on whether growth stabilises and how quickly margins can move toward the 25%+ exit target.

Nifty resumed its downward trajectory, declining 173 points to close at 22,603 yesterday amid a highly volatile trading session. Immediate resistance is placed near 22,800, aligned with the 10-day EMA, while key supports are seen at 22,397 and 22,217. A sustained move above 22,800 would be required to signal meaningful short-term recovery.

Indian equities look set for a muted open in the absence of strong global triggers.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach historic heights as artificial intelligence trade re-ignites

Major US stock indexes advanced as tech giants paced a broader market rally, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh closing records. The upward momentum was fueled by investor optimism surrounding artificial intelligence hardware leaders and upwardly revised corporate earnings expectations for the upcoming season.

The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to a record close at 7,819, and the Nasdaq notched a second straight record near 27,599. The Dow added roughly 250 points as AI-linked shares led the gains.

Fixed-income pressure on equities relaxed slightly as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from near its multi-decade high above 5.3%. The 10-year yield fell to about 5.27% after touching a level not seen since 2002, which helped equities.

Economic data revealed the US domestic trade deficit expanded to $105.6 billion in August, exceeding consensus forecasts. Driven by a surge in record import levels, the gap reflects the widest imbalance observed since early 2025.

Crude oil rebounded as a Gulf of Mexico storm threatening US output and refineries, together with Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, outweighed higher Middle East exports and the G7's 100-million-barrel reserve release.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision today at 10:00 am, and the consensus is a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to 5.50% from 5.25%, the first increase since February 2023. Eight of 10 economists in a poll expect the hike, so it is a majority call rather than a unanimous one.

Rising inflation, surging oil prices and rupee pressure are behind the expectation. Markets will focus on the guidance rather than the decision itself, especially the vote split, any shift in stance away from neutral, and the revised inflation and growth projections.

The Indian rupee depreciated 13 paise to close at 96.42 against the US dollar, weighed down by continued dollar demand from FPIs and oil companies. Market participants will now focus on the RBI’s monetary-policy decision due today, along with the trajectory of foreign capital flows.

Nifty gained for the second consecutive session yesterday, rising 220 points to close at 22,776. Immediate resistance is placed at 22,875, followed by 23,080. On the downside, support has shifted higher to around 22,550.

Indian equities are poised for a subdued open, on rising energy costs and weaker cues from Asian markets.

Nasdaq Hits Record as Nvidia Leads

Wall Street rallied on AI-linked strength, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.05% to a record close of 27,477, the S&P 500 gaining 0.66% to 7,774 and the Dow adding 0.18%.

Nvidia closed at a record high, surpassing its mid-May peak and anchoring the tech advance ahead of earnings season, though elevated yields continued to weigh on non-AI sectors.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.31%, up roughly 50 bps in a month, while a September payrolls print of 29,000 against an 84,000 estimate lifted market-implied odds of an October Fed hold to about 78% from 36% a week earlier.

In currency markets, the euro fell to 1.1161, its lowest since May 2025, as French 10-year yields hit their highest since 2002 and the France-Germany spread widened past 140 bps, with political turmoil in Spain and record speculative euro shorts adding pressure while the dollar index touched an annual high.

Crude fell about 2% as Middle East exports recovered toward pre-war levels and a 100-million-barrel G7 emergency release and a Saudi price cut added pressure.

After shedding half a per cent last week, the Indian Rupee steadied, appreciating 3 paise to close at 96.29 as easing supply concerns pulled crude oil prices lower. While improving risk-on sentiment provided an additional cushion for the local currency, market participants remain focused on the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision and foreign capital flows.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is meeting October 5-7, with the decision due tomorrow. Markets are leaning toward a 25 bp repo hike to 5.50%, with 38 of 61 economists in a poll expecting it.

Nifty snapped its four-day losing streak, advancing 133 points to settle at 22,555 yesterday.

Short-term indicators are deeply oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical bounce. Immediate resistance sits at 22,655 and 22,810—a decisive breakout above this zone is essential to signal a meaningful recovery. Conversely, a move below the swing low of 22,397 could extend the decline toward 22,200.

Indian equities are poised for a moderately higher open, on firm cues from Wall Street

Nifty Tumbles to Five-Month Low on Rising Energy Prices & Rate Hike Fears.

U.S. stocks closed mixed as an afternoon rally in Big Tech pared steeper earlier losses. The Dow fell 0.3% for a third straight decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed essentially flat as investors weighed surging Treasury yields against rising oil prices. Growth and tech names — most rate-sensitive — continued to weigh on sentiment.

The Treasury Department bought back $4.08 billion of long-term debt, well short of the $6 billion cap set by Secretary Scott Bessent. Offers were heavily rejected — just 12 of 35 eligible issues were accepted — undercutting the operation's aim of easing surging yields. The 30-year yield pushed higher still, hovering near 5.4%.

Communication Services led sector gains, with Meta Platforms up 4% after detailing monetisation plans for its AI agent. Data management firm Everpure rose over 11% after reaffirming full-year guidance, while Nvidia shares swung on news of a $13 billion deal to acquire Hugging Face.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.14%. Hawkish Fed and ECB commentary, paired with strong U.S. PMI data, lifted the odds of an October Fed hike to roughly 70%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August, a 7.5% monthly drop, underscoring growing consumer unease. Durable goods orders offered a partial offset, beating expectations with a 1.1% month-over-month gain.

The rupee remained under pressure, depreciating 21 paise to close at 95.95, weighed down by soft Asian peers and a weak domestic equity market. A rebound in crude oil prices, elevated bond yields and rising expectations of higher interest rates added to the currency’s headwinds.

Nifty resumed its downtrend with a massive fall of 383 points to close at 23063, the lowest since 6th April 2026. This is the biggest one-session percentage fall since 8th July 2026 for Nifty. The breakdown decisively pushes Nifty below the lower boundary of its recent 23,100–23,600 consolidation zone. This signals a continuation of the primary downtrend, with sellers in firm control and momentum skewed to the downside.

Insurance distributor stocks tumbled sharply yesterday on the back of regulatory concerns, extending losses amid heightened sector-wide selling pressure.

Positional support now lies around 22,700, aligning with the upward-sloping trendline connecting the swing lows of June 2024, April 2025 and April 2026. On the upside, near-term resistance has shifted down to 23,300.

Indian markets are set for a weak open, tracking subdued global cues.

Wall Street Slides as Fed Hike Fears Return

US equities fell sharply, snapping record runs, as the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.1% to 26,936, giving back its two prior record closes. The S&P 500 and Dow lost 0.8% and 0.7%. The Russell 2000 fell roughly 1%.

A strong S&P Global flash PMI drove the move. The composite index rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021. Services led (58.7 vs 56.5), and manufacturing jumped to 56.7 from 53.1 on stronger new orders, well above forecasts. The 10-year yield rose to about 5.06%, its highest since 2007, and the 2-year to about 4.87%, raising the odds of another Fed hike in October.

Brent recovered above $100 per barrel as hopes of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded.

Quantum computing stocks bucked the trend after IonQ announced a real-time error-correction advance ahead of the Quantum World Congress. The advance removes a key bottleneck for fault-tolerant computing.

United States and China agreed to extend the "Busan Agreement" trade truce until January 10, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Investors are closely watching the high-profile US-China summit in Washington for trade and diplomatic signals that could sway risk sentiment across asset classes.

Additional focus turns to US jobless claims, building permits, and Fed speeches from Williams, Barkin, and Hammack for further direction on rate expectations.

The Indian government reduced import duties on edible oils to help ease food inflation ahead of the festive season. Import duties on crude palm and soya oils were cut to 5% from 10%, while duties on refined variants were lowered to 27.5% from 32.5%.

The rupee snapped a four-day winning streak, depreciating 15 paise to close at 95.74, amid broad-based dollar strength and elevated dollar demand from importers. Markets are also beginning to price in a rate hike from the RBI.

Nifty continues to oscillate within the trading range of the large move on September 15, 2026. The 23,500–23,600 zone will continue to act as a key resistance band, while the 23,100–23,150 zone is expected to provide strong support. A sustained move above 23,600 would strengthen the bullish outlook, whereas a break below 23,100 could put renewed pressure on the index.

Indian equities are poised for a lower open, on the back of weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Longest Weekly Losing Streak for Nifty Since 2020

US equities ended a volatile week mixed as markets digested the Fed's rate hike. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% on dip-buying in mega-cap semiconductor and software stocks, while the Dow fell 1.7%, its steepest weekly drop since March, and the S&P 500 slipped marginally. Indices steadied late in the week after mid-week pressure from the hawkish policy shift.

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 empowers President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas, putting India and China at risk. The move comes as India-US trade talks continue.

The market will likely watch Trump and Xi meet in Washington on 24 September, their second meeting this year after May talks in Beijing that yielded no substantive agreements. Tariffs, critical minerals, AI and Taiwan are likely to dominate. With the 2025 Busan truce expiring in November, both sides face pressure to extend the pause on tariff escalation and rare-earth export controls.

Indian markets ended the truncated past week in the red, falling for the sixth straight week as elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields weighed on investor sentiment. Despite Friday's bounce, Nifty ended the week down 0.22%, its longest weekly losing streak since 2020, while Sensex fell 0.65%.

Fluctuating Brent crude oil prices and sustained elevation in global commodity costs added pressure to India’s import bill and corporate operating margins.

Over the week, the Moody’s raised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 6%, citing the economy’s resilience amid the West Asia conflict. However, the agency flagged continued risks despite expecting India to maintain relatively strong growth among G20 economies and similarly rated emerging markets.

Markets are tracking the NSE IPO, with listing planned for September 24, as one of the week's major domestic events.

Globally, the anticipated September 24 meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, along with India's flash PMI and infrastructure output data, will be key catalysts.

Nifty closed higher on Friday, adding 75 points to finish at 23,346. The index has now retraced 271 points of the 474-point fall recorded on 15 September, meaning more than 50% of that sharp decline has been recovered, a clear breather for bulls.

Broader markets have outperformed benchmarks like Nifty and Bank Nifty during this rebound, which is an encouraging sign for overall market sentiment.

23600 remains the key resistance for the Nifty; a sustained move above this level would confirm a bullish trend reversal. On the downside, the recent swing low near 23,100 appears to have formed a support base for Nifty.

Indian markets are poised for a flat to mildly negative opening amid concerns over higher U.S. tariffs and the worsening geopolitical situation in the Russia–Ukraine war.

Technology stocks lead Wall Street higher as oil eases, Treasury yields dip

U.S. stocks staged a sharp recovery yesterday, reversing the prior session's sell-off in a broad, tech-led rally.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.7% (adding nearly 440 points), the S&P 500 gained 1.1%, and the Dow rose 0.6%. The rebound was driven by falling Treasury yields and softer oil prices, which eased near-term inflation concerns and helped markets move past the Federal Reserve's unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike.

Tech led the advance, with the S&P 500 Information Technology index up more than 2% on strength in names like Intel and Super Micro Computer, as investors rotated back into AI trades once bond-market pressure eased.

The 10-year Treasury yield eased to roughly 4.93%, while crude slid on reports that Saudi Arabia could route additional supply to market through alternative export channels.

The dollar softened modestly against major peers, tracking the move in yields.

US Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 against expectations of 206,000, and continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million — the lowest since January 2024 — pointing to limited layoffs and a labour market resilient enough to give the Fed room to stay focused on inflation.

At the Tata Sons board meeting on September 17, 2026, the board voted by majority to reappoint N. Chandrasekaran as Executive Chairman for a fresh five-year term, reversing his August decision to step down. The board also moved to comply with RBI guidelines regarding a public listing, triggering an immediate clash with Tata Trusts, which called the reappointment "illegal".

The rupee endured a whipsaw session, initially buckling under a hawkish Fed and softer Asian FX sentiment. Those early losses, however, proved short-lived as the central bank stepped in with forceful defence, pulling the currency off for marginal gains of 3 paise and closing at 95.93.

Nifty closed higher for the second consecutive session, gaining 53 points to finish at 23,270 yesterday. Immediate resistance now lies at 23,360, with a stronger positional resistance near 23,600. On the downside, the 23,070–23,100 band remains the key support zone.

Indian markets are set for a flat open amid a lack of clear global cues.

Nifty Plunges Below Key Support as Broad-Based Selling Intensifies

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as investors braced for the Federal Reserve's policy decision and Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.78%, the Dow slipped 0.63%, and the S&P 500 shed 0.45%, pressured by the 10-year Treasury yield's climb above 5.04%. Germany's 10-year Bund yield also rose to 3.57%, adding to the pressure on global equity valuations.

Brent crude traded above $108 a barrel after Saudi Arabia cancelled part of its September oil shipments to Europe, stoking fears that tighter supply will keep inflation elevated across major economies.

Gold broke below key technical support to trade under $4,300 an ounce, weighed down by a stronger dollar and expectations of further Fed tightening.

Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed hike, to a 3.75%–4.00% range — a move that would widen the policy gap with the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate to roughly 150 basis points and could mark the start of a new hiking cycle.

The dollar's advance has pushed EUR/USD down about 0.8% over four straight sessions to near 1.153, its weakest level in roughly a month.

The Indian rupee extended its losing streak for a fifth consecutive session, pressured by rising global bond yields and higher crude oil prices amid ongoing supply disruptions. The rupee closed at 95.96 against the US dollar yesterday, depreciating by 40 paise.

Nifty continued its downward journey, falling 279 points to close at 23,118—the lowest level since 6 April 2026. Nifty has breached the crucial support level of 23,172, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the rally that began in April 2026 and continued until early August 2026. The next important support zone is placed near 22500-22,700, marked by an upward-sloping trend line joining the swing lows of June 2024, April 2025, and April 2026. The resistance zone for the index remains near 23,600.

Indian equities are poised for a cautious open, on the back of weak global cues.

US Stocks Fall on Oil, India GDP Tops Forecasts

US indices ended lower on Monday as a rise in crude oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East revived inflation and higher-for-longer rate concerns.

The S&P 500 declined 0.33% to 7,686, while the Nasdaq Composite was relatively resilient, slipping 0.12% to 26370.

Positive economic data have fuelled discussions about the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, stabilising technology and healthcare stocks.

Despite the weak final session, all three major indices ended August higher, and the Dow recorded its fifth consecutive monthly gain.

US government bond yields experienced notable volatility in response to fresh labour market and inflation indicators. Investors are demanding higher premiums as debate intensifies over whether the central bank will extend its pause or cut rates further later this year.

Energy markets saw Brent and WTI crude oil balances near recent ranges amid offsetting macroeconomic forces. While production constraints from major oil-exporting nations provided a price floor, demand concerns from major industrial economies limited further upside.

Data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revealed that India's economy expanded by 7.8% during the April-June 2026 quarter. Driven largely by strong exports and investments, this performance surpassed consensus expectations and marked the twelfth consecutive quarter of upside growth surprises.

Surplus liquidity in the Indian banking system surged to nearly Rs 5 lakh crore at the end of August, its highest level in over four months, boosted by month-end government spending and robust foreign currency deposits.

Bank credit in India continued to expand at a robust pace in July, with overall bank credit rising 19.3% year-on-year, according to data released by the RBI. The acceleration was supported by strong lending growth across industry, services, agriculture and personal loans.

The newly introduced Closing Auction Session system experienced its first significant test amid a scheduled index rebalancing yesterday. The high volume of concentrated portfolio adjustments by passive funds during the final trading window triggered wild price fluctuations across individual equities.

The Indian rupee staged a stellar comeback, appreciating 22 paise to close at 95.16, its strongest level since August 5, overcoming an early dip triggered by Friday’s surge in the dollar index after hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. This resilient recovery was heavily anchored by timely, suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, alongside a surge in dollar flows linked to the index rebalancing and the FCNR(B) schemes.

During yesterday's session, Nifty breached the prior swing-low support at 24,025 and the psychological 24,000 mark; however, the second-half recovery enabled the index to close above these crucial supports. In the short term, the 24,200–24,250 zone is likely to act as strong resistance, with multiple moving averages clustered there. On the lower side, a decisive break below 23,993 could extend losses toward the next support near 23,890.

Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening amid negative global cues.

Nvidia Earnings Spark Broad Technology Rally, Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Nvidia posted second-quarter earnings that crushed expectations, with revenue up 106% year over year. The results reassured investors on the durability of the AI boom, sending the tech sector up 3.4% and lifting major indices. Nvidia rose more than 4% intraday to $227.98 on strong guidance, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher. The Nasdaq Composite led Wall Street with a 1.57% gain, outpacing the S&P 500 and Dow.

Shares slipped after-hours, however, on reports that Nvidia had paused cloud revenue-share deals — injecting a note of caution ahead of Jackson Hole.

Corporate software earnings reinforced the tech rally. Salesforce jumped over 11% on raised guidance, and CrowdStrike surged on record annual recurring revenue driven by AI-linked security adoption.

Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's address today at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium — his first as chair, and not tied to a policy meeting.

Markets are looking for signals on the rate path amid PCE inflation at 3.7%.

Chicago wheat futures hit their daily limit, closing near $7.60/bushel — about 30% above their late-June lows — as Black Sea supply concerns intensify.

The Indian rupee opened flat post-Wednesday’s holiday, then came under pressure from month-end dollar demand, short-covering, and broader risk aversion. It ended 13 paise lower at 95.54. A modest rebound in the dollar index, following recent inflation data, further weighed on momentum.

Nifty fell for the second consecutive session, dropping 116 points to close at 24,090. Markets fell on Thursday as expiry-led volatility and weak geopolitical sentiment triggered broad selling in heavyweights. A decisive break below the prior swing low of 24,025 would confirm a positional trend reversal. On the upside, the recent swing high of 24,378 is likely to act as immediate resistance.

Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening amid the absence of decisive global cues to drive market direction.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street falls for third straight day as tech selloff deepens

U.S. stocks extended losses for a third consecutive session, led lower by a sharp pullback in mega-cap technology and semiconductor names.

The Nasdaq dropped 1.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.69%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.22%, pulling all three benchmarks further from last week's record highs. Global bond rout pushes long-term yields to multidecade highs. Rising bond yields sapped risk appetite from the AI trade.

Home Depot posted higher sales and reaffirmed its outlook even as consumers stuck to smaller maintenance projects.

Meta, faces a landmark child-safety trial in California — a legal overhang even as its underlying growth metrics remain strong.

New 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods are set to take effect soon absent a last-minute deal between Trump and Canadian PM Carney.

Government bond yields surged worldwide, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touching an intraday high near 5.33%–5.34% — its highest since 2007. Widening fiscal deficits, inflation concerns, and heavy capex from debt-financed AI infrastructure buildouts are factors competing with sovereign borrowers for capital and reshaping equity valuations. Foreign holders, including those in the UK, China, and Japan, have been paring their Treasury holdings, compounding the sell-off.

Crude climbs as Middle East tensions escalate. Oil extended its advance after the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without a new agreement and Iran shifted to what it called a "fully offensive" military posture, with fresh attacks reported in the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold eased below $4,400 as higher U.S. yields and safe-haven dollar demand outweighed support from Middle East risk aversion.

The rupee weakened by 8 paise to close at 95.68 per dollar. This was primarily driven by higher crude prices amid escalating tensions in West Asia and weakness in domestic equities.

India's crude oil import bill rose 41% YoY to $13.7 billion in July, primarily due to higher crude prices amid the ongoing crisis in West Asia. Crude import volumes also increased 13% YoY to 21.4 million tonnes, while the Indian basket averaged $82.04 a barrel amid supply disruptions.

Nifty fell for the sixth straight session yesterday, shedding 132 points (−0.54%) to close at 24,154, its lowest level since 28 July 2026.

Technically, Nifty closed below an important cluster support around 24,200. The current fall of over 600 points from the recent peak has retraced more than 50% of the previous upward rally from 23,606 to 24,774 recorded between 24 July and 3 August 2026. Below 24200, the next key support is seen near 24,050, aligning with a retracement of the past rally and a prior gap zone. Resistance has shifted lower to the 24,300–24,350 band, with a stronger supply zone around 24,600.

Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P 500 closes at record high as inflation cools

The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to a record intraday and closing high of 7798; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%. The rally followed July PPI report, which showed wholesale inflation cooling to 4.7% YoY — below expectations — cutting odds of a September Fed rate hike to 35% from 40% and pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down 4bps to 4.639%.

Brent oil fell over 2% to about $87, snapping a multi-day rally. A surprise 17.4 million-barrel U.S. inventory build, combined with 2026 demand-growth downgrades from OPEC and the IEA, outweighed supply risk from the Strait of Hormuz, prices extended losses even after the UAE reported Iran struck two oil vessels there, signaling demand concerns are currently dominating supply fears.

SanDisk jumped nearly 14% on bullish fiscal 2028–2030 revenue guidance. In space stocks, fell 3.5% and Intuitive Machines slid about 1.6% on a revenue miss and wider-than-expected loss.

Spot gold fell over 1% to near $4,354/oz, pulling back from a fresh two-month intraday high near $4,450. The DXY dollar index slipped below 100.00 as the cooler PPI print and higher jobless claims cut expectations for further Fed tightening, even as Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack reiterated her call for a rate hike.

The Indian rupee depreciated steadily during yesterday's session amid strong dollar demand from importers. Sentiment was also weighed down by the previous day’s inflation reading, resulting in the rupee underperforming its Asian peers. The domestic currency closed 11 paise lower at 95.45 against the US dollar.

Nifty continued to trade in a choppy range but managed to close at 24,395. This marks the second consecutive session in which the index has closed above these key moving averages and remains an encouraging sign for the bulls.

The immediate support is placed at 24,265, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 remain the key resistance zones to watch. Sustained trading above 24,265 could keep the short-term bias positive, while a decisive close below 24200 would weaken the setup.

Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on lack of strong global cues.

Tame US CPI eases rate-hike fears, lifts risk appetite

US headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY in July, matching consensus, cooling from June's 3.5%. Core CPI held at 2.5% YoY, also in line with forecasts. The soft print led markets to pare back bets on an aggressive Fed move at the September meeting, with gold rallying above $4,400 — a two-month high — on rising odds that the Fed holds rates steady. The dollar firmed into the release.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose 0.54% and 0.26%, respectively, recovering from earlier losses on strong results from AI infrastructure and cloud names.

Super Micro Computer surged over 19%, while Dell, Teradyne, Seagate, and Arista Networks each gained more than 6%, extending the AI-hardware rally. Bloom Energy rose 13% after Nebius picked its fuel cells for a 300 MW AI data center, with Q2 revenue up 165% YoY to $1.07 billion.

India's CPI rose 4.45% YoY in July (vs. 4.38% in June), close to the 4.4% estimate. The FY27E inflation forecast is retained at 4.9% YoY, with a pickup to 5.0–5.8% expected in H2FY27E on adverse base effects, El Niño risk, and supply-chain pressures. With inflation contained, the RBI is expected to stay on hold through CY26E, with a possible 25 bps hike in Q1CY27E — the Fed's path remains the key swing factor.

Brent Crude oil settled near $88/bbl as markets stayed sceptical of a quick resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with US-Iran tensions keeping risk premiums elevated.

The rupee snapped a two-day losing streak yesterday, appreciating 10 paise to close at 95.33 as cooling crude prices offered relief after the recent rally. Likely central bank interventions and dollar inflows into debt and primary markets also supported the currency.

Nifty managed to reclaim intraday losses and close above these key moving averages, which is an encouraging sign for the bulls. Even after falling over 500 points from its recent peak of 24,774, Nifty remains above its key near-term averages, keeping the broader undertone bullish.

A low of 24,265 now will act as immediate support, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are the key resistance zones to watch.

Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on yesterday's CAS adjustments and mixed global cues.

Wall Street edges lower ahead of critical inflation data

U.S. benchmarks closed lower for a second straight session Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the July CPI report. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6% on weakness in large-cap tech, and the Dow lost 0.3%.

Markets awaited the inflation print, expected to show 0.1% m/m headline growth and a 3.4% annual pace.

Alphabet shares fell 3.8%, their fourth decline in five sessions, as investors reacted to the company's reshuffling of its internal AI units.

Intel priced a public offering of 210.5 million shares at $95 apiece, upsizing the deal from $15 billion to $20 billion. The offering, set to today — one of the largest capital raises in the chip sector this year.

Oil extended its volatile run amid stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has surged to nearly $90.

Iran maintained the strait would stay closed until its demands are met, even as a senior Pakistani minister said Tuesday the U.S. and Iran were nearing "some sort of arrangement" — a rare note of optimism amid otherwise hardening rhetoric on both sides.

Energy stocks gained on the rally, while refining margins spiked, pointing to a tightening downstream market.

The Indian rupee weakened for the second consecutive session yesterday, depreciating by 14 paise to close near 95.44. The decline was driven by weakness across Asian currencies and rising crude oil prices. Heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical uncertainty continued to exert pressure on the domestic currency. However, the rupee’s decline remained relatively contained despite the surge in oil prices, supported by intervention from the central bank.

Fitch Ratings affirmed India’s sovereign rating at BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level, while retaining a stable outlook. The agency cited robust growth prospects and stable external financing conditions, but flagged elevated government debt, weak structural metrics and potential fiscal spending pressures amid rising youth unemployment.

The central government’s net direct tax collection rose 23% YoY to ₹8.11 trillion as of August 10, supported by strong growth in non-corporate tax and STT receipts. The collection represents nearly one-third of the FY27 target of ₹26.97 trillion, despite a slower rise in refunds.

The Nifty remained under pressure throughout the session yesterday due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on geopolitical concerns.

Having declined more than 300 points from its recent peak of 24,774, the Nifty has moved closer to its 200-day DEMA support at 24,384.

A decisive close below this level could drag the index towards the next support at 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are likely to act as key resistance levels.

Indian equities are set for a mildly positive note on conducive Asian cues.

Wall Street Slips as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Resurface

U.S. stocks pulled back from record highs Monday as renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation fears ahead of this week's CPI report. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all closed modestly lower, snapping a two-week rally that had carried the S&P to a record close near 7,758.

AI-related names came under pressure after reports that Nvidia is working with major private equity firms on a financing initiative to mobilise more than $500 billion in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs, and enterprises building out data centres and buying Nvidia hardware. Nvidia shares slipped about 3% on the news. By channelling institutional credit, insurance capital, and private funding into underwriting GPUs and data centres, the arrangement lets customers finance AI infrastructure without straining their own balance sheets.

WTI and Brent crude climbed to $82 and $88 a barrel, respectively, after President Trump demanded compensation from Iran, dimming hopes of a near-term reopening. No agreement has materialised, and positions in Washington and Tehran have hardened.

The rally has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.71% and revived inflation concerns heading into Thursday's CPI print.

Adding to the policy picture, a surprise 23,000-job contraction in July nonfarm payrolls has led traders to sharply pare bets on a September rate hike, with markets now leaning toward the Fed holding steady.

Asian markets opened mixed today. Japanese markets are shut today for Mountain Day.

Indian E-way bill generation continued to signal sustained economic activity, rising 5.98% YoY to 139.79 million in July 2026 from 131.91 million a year earlier — the second-highest monthly level on record, just below March 2026's peak of 140.60 million. Sequentially, generation rose 2.21% from 136.77 million in June, even as growth moderated to 12.4% in Q1FY27 from 15.7% in Q4FY26.

The Nifty witnessed a volatile, range-bound session on Dalal Street, closing at 24,583, up 13 points in yesterday's session. It continues to oscillate between its 200-day SMA at 24,758 and 200-day EMA at 24,384. The primary trend remains bullish, with the index trading above its key near-term averages. A decisive break away from this range is likely to trigger a sharper directional move in the index.

Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues, as the ongoing Q1 earnings season continues to steer both stock-specific and broader market sentiment.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets snap winning streak, focus turns to jobs report and Hormuz standoff

Major U.S. indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, ending a multi-day winning streak as investors booked profits after recent record highs.

The Dow fell 0.9%, weighed down by leadership changes and weak earnings at individual names; the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% for a second straight session, and the Nasdaq eased 0.1%.

Investors weighed a heavy earnings slate — including Insulet's 20% plunge on cut guidance — against Middle East tensions and today's expected jobs report.

European stocks bucked the trend, with the STOXX 600 hitting fresh records on strong earnings and optimism over a possible US-Iran deal.

Tech sentiment cracked after memory-chip makers Western Digital and SanDisk issued forecasts that fell short of lofty AI-driven expectations. Western Digital slid more than 14% and SanDisk over 9% in premarket trading, dragging Nasdaq 100 futures lower and raising questions about whether momentum is cooling among former AI market leaders.

Attention now shifts to Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a modest 83,000 gain with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Market players will watch wage growth and labour-force participation for further signals on labour-market health.

Crudel Oil rallied sharply after Iran published a draft plan to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and impose steep fines on violators — reversing earlier-week optimism that had pushed Brent down toward $75 on hopes of an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the waterway.

Brent jumped to $83 and WTI to near $78, a 3–4% surge. A broader U.S.-Iran agreement, which the Trump administration had signalled could be reached by Thursday, now looks unlikely to close soon.

Indian government reaffirmed its commitment to tariff rationalisation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Customs duties on most products are likely to be reduced to single-digit levels by the FY28 Budget, adding that rates have already been rationalised for all but 13 items.

The rupee was the laggard among Asian currencies, depreciating 10 paise to close at 95.22, pressured by a rebound in global commodity costs and persistent dollar demand from importers.

It was a muted session on Dalal Street yesterday, with the Nifty closing at 24,636, up 11 points. Nifty’s volatility has contracted over the past three trading sessions, with the index forming lower highs and higher lows on a daily basis.

The primary trend remains bullish as the index holds above all key moving averages. On the upside, 24,770 and 25,000 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels, while the 24,430–24,380 zone may provide support on declines.

Indian markets are set to open marginally lower today on the back of higher crude oil prices.

U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs on Earnings Strength, Easing Oil Prices

The US markets closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 1.8% — its first record close since June — and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.6%, now nearly 9% higher since last Wednesday.

Strong corporate earnings, a 4% rally in technology stocks, and falling oil prices drove the advance, while easing expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes added further support.

Earnings are the session's biggest driver of the rally. Microsoft shares surged 25% over three days on blowout Q4 FY26 results, with Azure revenue nearing a $100 billion annual run rate and Copilot surpassing 30 million paid seats.

Palantir Technologies jumped nearly 30% after beating quarterly expectations and raising full-year revenue guidance, while Caterpillar climbed more than 5% to lead the Dow on record revenue, an upgraded growth outlook, and strong equipment demand tied to the AI data-center buildout; the company also trimmed its full-year tariff-cost guidance to the lower end of its prior range.

McDonald's shares slipped after U.S. sales growth came in weaker than expected following an underwhelming value-deal push.

SpaceX drew attention as short interest spiked to elevated levels ahead of earnings, with Musk warning short sellers and the company flagging higher-than-expected AI infrastructure spending; separately, SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss last year, split between a $542 million operating loss in its launch business — which depends heavily on Defense Department and NASA contracts — and a $1.26 billion loss in its AI unit, formed via the February merger with xAI, partly offset by $1.66 billion in operating income from its connectivity business.

Oil prices fell sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping could be reached within a day.

Brent crude oil dropped more than 5%, three-week low, below $80. The moves followed President Trump's weekend comments that he had called off a planned strike on Iran to allow room for negotiations.

The de-escalation also pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.62%, as markets lowered the odds of a September Fed rate cut hike.

In currency markets, the dollar weakened broadly, with EUR/USD approaching $1.15, while the yen traded near 157 per dollar.

The Indian rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 95.38, moving in line with its Asian peers as and a firmer US dollar weighed on the currency. Participants awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy outcome for further direction today.

Nifty saw a sharp 150-point spike in the closing auction session (CAS), aided by more than 1% moves in more than ten Nifty stocks.

Nifty remains in an overall uptrend, trading above all key moving averages. Immediate resistance is placed near 24,770, while support is seen at 24,375, aligned with the 200-day EMA.

Our Markets are poised to open higher today on the back of falling crude prices and buoyant US market cues.

Dow sets new closing record amid geopolitical de-escalation

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 700 points to close at a record 53,178— its 22nd record close this year. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.1%, as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and stronger-than-expected July manufacturing data lifted sentiment.

Amazon topped a $3 trillion market valuation for the first time as growth stocks rebounded broadly. The "Magnificent Seven" added a combined $1.77 trillion in market capitalisation over three trading days, aided by falling Treasury yields.

Brent crude fell to settle near $84 a barrel, after President Trump signalled he would postpone further military action against Iran to pursue negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. The retreat in energy prices eased Wall Street's inflation concerns.

Separately, Trump criticized Exxon and Chevron for "making too much money" amid high gasoline prices, calling on the companies to pass more savings to consumers — as low-income households continue spending over 10% of monthly income on fuel despite falling crude prices.

The U.S. Treasury and the Bank of Japan confirmed coordinated yen-buying intervention — an unusual step that included the U.S. selling euros to fund the purchases. USD/JPY strengthened to around 157, up from 40-year lows near 164, with officials signalling readiness for further action.

The Indian rupee strengthened in line with most Asian currencies, rising 4 paise to close at 95.35, supported by a decline in crude oil prices after U.S. President Donald Trump said fresh U.S.-Iran talks are set to begin on Monday. The domestic currency also benefited from sustained foreign inflows into both equity and debt markets. In addition, expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may reduce its net short forward position provided further support to the rupee.

Nifty extended its winning streak for a fourth consecutive session.

During the session, the index crossed key resistance levels of 24,530 and 24,601, confirming the continuation of the bullish trend.

Foreign investors are gradually paring back their short positions in derivatives while adding to their cash market holdings.

Nifty is poised to test the next target of 24,776, derived from its 200-day average. Immediate support has now moved higher to the 24,400–24,500 zone.

Nifty experienced a massive 200-point surge during the closing auction session (CAS), driven by around 1% or more movement across as many as 12 Nifty stocks, and that is likely to correct after opening today.

Markets to Cheer Middle East De-escalation

Global investors last week digested a hawkish Federal Reserve decision, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and a critical wave of Q2 earnings from Big Tech hyperscalers.

Concerns about the durability of large AI bets weighed on AI stocks due to high capital spending, financing needs, and growing competition. However, sentiment reversed in the latter half of the week after Microsoft’s Azure growth beat expectations and strong guidance, sparking a broad rebound in tech shares, though volatility persisted through the week’s end.

Trump said Iran sought a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its nuclear threat, prompting him to cancel a planned strike ahead of Monday talks. Brent crude sank over 6% to $82.41 on the news, with broader risk sentiment lifted by hopes of a resolution.

Japan intervened in FX markets (yen-buying, dollar-selling) to halt the currency's slide to multi-decade lows, while the BOJ held rates but turned hawkish on inflation risks. This lifted short-dated JGB yields on rate-hike bets, and the yen later jumped on confirmed joint U.S.-Japan intervention, dragging exporter-led Japanese equities lower.

The Kospi fell as much as 5.5% as chipmakers sold off after Friday's record run and investors unwound leveraged bets. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped about 9%.

The rupee and bonds this week will track the RBI's policy decision, with rates seen on hold and focus on inflation guidance amid Iran-driven energy risks. Bloomberg's deferral of India's bond-index inclusion — widely expected to go through — hurt sentiment and drove a third straight weekly yield rise

The Indian equity markets experienced a decisive bullish push during the week, closing above the psychologically important 24,000 mark, rebounding strongly from the previous week's consolidation. Encouraging management commentaries across large-cap IT, auto OEMs, and industrial manufacturing boosted investor sentiment.

Easing crude oil prices are providing a welcome cushion for India's trade balance and inflation outlook, while healthy progress of the southwest monsoon has further bolstered investor confidence.

July auto sales were broadly strong across categories. In passenger vehicles, Hyundai posted a record 75,360 units (domestic plus exports), Tata Motors' domestic PV sales rose 58% YoY to 62,611 units, Mahindra & Mahindra's total auto sales grew 26% to 1,03,860 vehicles including exports, and MG Motor India hit an all-time high of 8,158 wholesale units. Maruti Suzuki India Limited sold a total of 241,421 units. Domestic sales reached an all-time high of 200,123 units

Two-wheelers also gained: Hero MotoCorp's domestic dispatches rose 21.6% to 5,01,403 units, while Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India grew about 2% to 4,76,436 units.

The Royal Enfield maker posted monthly sales of 1,18,232 motorcycles in July 2026. The company witnessed 34% growth over the same period last year, against 88,045 motorcycles sold.

Indian indices are breaking out from near‑term resistance levels after several months of consolidation. Nifty index has closed above its 200 DEMA and swing-high resistance, reinforcing the near-term positive bias. Next resistance is seen at 24,530 (07 July swing high), followed by 24,778 (200-day SMA).

Midcap and Smallcap indices are in continuation of an uptrend.

On the downside, 23800 is the crucial support which can be utilised as a stop-loss in long positions.

Indian markets are set to open on a cheerful note on encouraging global cues.

Tech Stocks Roar Back on Microsoft's Historic Gain

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, led by a rally in technology. The Nasdaq Composite led with a 2.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.2%.

Microsoft shares surged 16%, adding a record $450 billion in market capitalisation — the largest single-day gain in Wall Street history. The rally followed blowout earnings, with profit up 31%, easing investor concerns that AI infrastructure spending was outpacing cash generation. The optimism spread to other AI-cloud names: Nebius jumped 27%, CoreWeave 24%, and Oracle 7%, in a broad risk-on move.

Amazon also cheered investors after hours, reinforcing the narrative that AI infrastructure spending is starting to pay off. Meta Platforms was the exception, falling roughly 8% and extending its losing streak to 11 consecutive sessions, on soft revenue guidance and lingering doubts about the payback timeline on its capital expenditure.

U.S. GDP growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter, with inflation-adjusted output expanding at an annualised 1.5% as elevated oil and gasoline costs weighed on households and businesses. Consumer spending held up, rising 3.2%, and business investment stayed strong on continued AI-related spending. Weekly jobless claims rose to 197,000, up 9,000 from the prior week, adding to signs of a cooling labour market.

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold, with the remaining three members favouring a 25-basis-point hike to 4%.

Asian markets rallied today on easing fears that the AI-linked selloff had further to run: South Korea's Kospi surged 14%, and Japan's Nikkei rose 4%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures pointed higher as well.

The yen spiked nearly 2.4% on suspected government intervention, pulling USD/JPY back from 40-year lows near 160 before it gave back some gains, trading around 160.5. The dollar weakened broadly — also pressured by trader scepticism over Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent inflation comments — pushing EUR/USD to a one-month high near $1.15 and USD/CAD to a six-week low near 1.40.

Nifty extended gains in yesterday's session by closing 66 points higher at 24,317.

From last Friday’s low of 23,606, the index has rallied 737 points and remains firmly above near-term averages, underscoring a strong uptrend. A sustained move above 24,368 could open the path toward the next resistance at 24,530, while the 24,040–24,140 band is expected to act as support on declines.

Indian markets are set to open on a positive note on encouraging global cues

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow's Worst Day in 15 Months: Mideast Tensions, Fed Hold Send Stocks Tumbling

US markets tumbled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and amid a sharp escalation in the Middle East. The Dow fell over 1,150 points — its worst session in 15 months — while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.52% and 1.74%, respectively.

Iran fired ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan, a US-Saudi coalition struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq, and an American-owned tanker docked in Egypt was set ablaze in a suspected drone attack. Oil surged on the news. The rally was reinforced by industry data showing a decline in US crude inventories, reviving inflation concerns just as the Fed's decision landed.

The FOMC voted 9–3 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with the three dissenters favouring an immediate 25bp hike amid persistent inflation concerns. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target — explicitly ruling out any higher "soft target" — but his reluctance to signal further tightening despite rising oil prices unsettled investors. Long-end Treasury yields jumped, with the 30-year touching its highest level since 2007.

In earnings, Microsoft rose as much as 8% after-hours on 43% Azure growth and $90 billion in quarterly revenue, with capex guidance held steady. Meta's revenue climbed 28% year-over-year to $60.8 billion, but a lacklustre forward outlook weighed on the stock despite its relatively attractive valuation.

In Asia, a steep sell-off in South Korean equities — driven by weak chip earnings and heavy retail selling in leveraged single-stock products — wiped out trillions of won in value in the last few sessions. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol convened an emergency meeting, and the government moved to cap individual retail exposure to single-stock leveraged ETFs at 20% of financial assets while raising trading costs on those products. Korean markets surged on open today, though now rapidly giving back their gains.

The Indian rupee appreciated for the fourth straight session, gaining 20 paise to close at 95.65, supported by strong regional currencies, a softer dollar index and the sharp rise in domestic equities.

Nifty staged a strong comeback on the first day of the August series, surging 264 points to close at 24,250. A sustained move above this zone could open the door for further upside. On the lower side, immediate support has now shifted higher to the 24,000–24,050 band, and as long as Nifty holds above this area, the short-term bias is likely to remain positive.

Indian markets are set to open marginally lower today, tracking softer global cues as higher crude oil prices amid rising geopolitical uncertainty weigh on sentiment.

Cooling Crude, Easing Geopolitics to Lift Indian Markets

US markets declined for a second consecutive week — Nasdaq down 2.13%, S&P and Dow marginally lower — as Treasury yields surged ahead of the Fed meeting (10-year at a one-year high, 30-year briefly above 5.15%) and AI capex guidance drew scrutiny despite in-line tech earnings; semiconductors (SanDisk, Micron, Intel) lagged sharply.

Nifty and Sensex logged five straight losing sessions — the sharpest weekly drop in months — as Brent crude topped $100/bbl on Middle East tensions, the rupee weakened, FIIs stayed net sellers, and bank earnings disappointed; Nifty 50 closed down 2.33% at 23,767.45, Nifty Bank fell 3.12% to 56,693, with Realty (-4.02%) and Banks leading sectoral losses.

HSBC Flash India PMI showed private-sector activity expanding at its slowest pace in over four years in July, though manufacturing held up relatively well.

FIIs sold ~Rs 7,200 crore for the week on elevated US yields and valuation concerns, while DIIs cushioned the market with ~Rs 8,600 crore of buying; the rupee touched a near two-month low of ₹96.67/USD before settling around ₹96.50.

Crude oil retreated sharply (Brent oil futures Oct expiry is now trading near $88) from above the $100 level after the U.S. held off further strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, deflating the geopolitical risk premium; reports of Chinese-brokered diplomacy between Washington and Tehran added to the pullback.

Markets will track the FOMC decision (Wednesday), Q2 GDP and June PCE data (Thursday), alongside global cues from crude oil, new US tariffs on major trading partners, and continued FII/DII flow dynamics in India.

The Nifty faces overhead resistance near the 24,000 level; a close above this could trigger further short covering, while a decisive slide below the immediate support of 23,600 may open the door to a larger downside in the near term.

Indian markets are poised to open sharply higher, buoyed by a retreat in crude oil prices amid a thaw in geopolitical hostilities.

Cooling Inflation and Bank Earnings Fuel Wall Street Rally

Major US stock indexes rose after June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% monthly decline, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. The unexpectedly soft reading triggered a sharp shift in rate expectations, with the probability of a July Fed hike falling from 42% to 17%.

Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June — the largest single-month decline in over six years — driven by a 9.7% plunge in gasoline prices following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Core CPI rose just 2.6% year-over-year, below the 2.9% estimate. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh nonetheless stopped short of signalling rate cuts, reaffirming the Fed's commitment to price stability.

Five of the largest US banks posted a combined 39% jump in quarterly earnings, powered by strong investment banking fees and equities trading revenue. Goldman Sachs led the rally, rising 9% to a new all-time high, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America also posted solid share-price gains on their results.

The Nasdaq advanced 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rebounded from the prior session's sell-off, with Micron Technology and Lam Research each gaining roughly 5%. The tech-heavy index nonetheless came under pressure from a historic drop in IBM shares after the company warned of weaker-than-expected software and infrastructure profits.

IBM shares fell sharply after a disappointing second quarter, with adjusted EPS of $2.93 against a $3.01 estimate and revenue of $17.2 billion versus $17.86 billion expected. The miss reignited concerns over near-term AI monetisation, rippling through the broader tech sector and acting as the single biggest drag on the Dow Jones.

CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and other cybersecurity names rose after IBM's results suggested enterprise customers are shifting spend away from legacy IT vendors — reinforcing the view that AI-driven security platforms are capturing budget dollars that traditional infrastructure players are losing.

SK Hynix surged 19% to $181.67 on Tuesday, as newly launched US single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to the Korean memory chipmaker drove a wave of retail buying. The rally lifted memory and storage names, including Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital, even as South Korea's broader KOSPI index remains roughly 25% below its June peak amid concerns that the AI trade may be overextended.

Crude oil prices climbed back above $80 per barrel as the US and Iran exchanged renewed military strikes and Washington reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Brent crude spiked as high as $86 a barrel — a one-month high — after Iran struck two UAE oil tankers and the US confirmed strikes on Iranian military targets. Gains were pared after President Trump abandoned a proposed 20% transit fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead to pursue investment deals with Gulf states.

Asian market opened higher today, tracking gains in U.S. stocks on the back of a chip rally.

The Indian rupee underperformed its Asian peers, depreciating 58 paise to close at 96.20, its weakest level in a month. A surge in crude prices amid rising geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the currency, while higher global bond yields could dampen expected inflows into the FCNR(B) scheme, adding further pressure.

India's retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.38% (provisional) in June 2026. This marked an acceleration from the 3.93% recorded in May 2026, largely driven by a spike in food prices and the effects of a weaker-than-normal monsoon.

Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak, declining 158 points to close at 24052 yesterday. The index remains in a consolidation phase. Looking ahead, the recent swing high near 24,260 is likely to act as near-term resistance, while support is placed around 23,800.

Indian markets are set to open on a flat to positive note amid encouraging global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Soft Jobs Data Fuels Markets Rally Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season

US markets ended the week of July 3 with gains after a softer-than-expected US jobs print and cooler rate-hike expectations, led by cyclical and communication services while defensives underperformed.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed last week as investors priced in a slower Fed rate-hiking path after US jobs data, with stocks set for their best weekly performance since May.

Markets are recalibrating rate expectations after Fed funds futures indicated roughly even odds of a rate hike by September, though June's weaker-than-expected jobs report tempered immediate fears.

S&P 500 companies are collectively expected to report Q2 earnings growth of over 24%, with earnings season kicking off this week as a key catalyst for equities.

Indian equities ended the week of 3 July on a constructive note, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex both closing higher and benchmarks supported by softer crude, improved global cues, and a rebound in IT.

A key tailwind was the decline in crude oil prices, which eased inflation and import bill concerns for India. The other major support came from improving global risk appetite, expectations of a more accommodative US rate path, and a better tone around the India-Japan Summit.

The upcoming quarterly results season will be closely watched for signs of demand recovery, margin resilience, and management commentary on second-half growth.

Markets are likely to react more to guidance and earnings quality than to headline numbers.

In the near term, the bias remains positive as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 zone, with 24,400–24,600 likely to act as resistance if momentum continues.

Indian markets are set to open on muted note amid cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow Crosses 52,000 as Tech Rebounds

U.S. equity markets saw a significant recovery yesterday, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing over 2% to break a five-day decline. The S&P 500 rose more than 1%, while the Dow Jones crossed the 52,000 threshold for the first time in its history. This broad rally was largely fueled by a resurgence in technology and artificial intelligence stocks following a volatile period of selling.

Alphabet officially debuted as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average this week, replacing Verizon in the blue-chip index. The stock's inclusion helped propel the Dow to record highs amid a broader rally in mega-cap technology names.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 2026 meeting, but officials signalled a more aggressive stance for the remainder of the year. Updated projections show that a majority of policymakers now anticipate additional rate hikes rather than cuts due to persistent inflation concerns. This hawkish shift follows the first meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, whose leadership has seen a removal of previous language hinting at future policy easing.

Asian markets opened higher today, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight. Last night in US, all three major indices closed on the higher end after a pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran lifted sentiment.

India's industrial activity gathered pace, with industrial output growth accelerating to a five-month high of 5.1% YoY in May from 4.9% YoY in April. The improvement was led by the electricity and gas segment, which expanded 9.9%, compared with 4.6% in the previous month

The Union Cabinet approved an additional ₹30,000 crore investment in the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), doubling the Centre's total commitment to ₹60,000 crore. The fresh capital will be deployed towards launching NIIF Infrastructure Fund II.

The rupee began the week on a weaker note, depreciating by 14 paise. The decline was driven by month-end dollar demand, elevated crude oil prices, and a risk-off sentiment amid rising geopolitical uncertainties.

The gains from the previous two sessions were reversed yesterday, the first day of the week, as the Nifty fell 109 points to close at 23,946. Nifty remains supported by the near-term averages clustered near the 23,800 level, while the recent swing low at 23,789 offers an additional near-term floor. On the upside, the key resistance remains at the swing high of 24,261; a decisive breakout above this level would restore the near-term bullish bias.

Indian markets are set to open on a mildly positive note amid encouraging global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Small is Beautiful – Look Beyond the Index

Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the second consecutive week, supported by easing crude oil prices and easing geopolitical concerns. The Nifty 50 snapped its losing streak, reclaiming the 24,000 level.

Fed rate-hike concerns stoked fears of FII outflows from emerging markets, while Accenture's revenue growth guidance cut triggered a broad-based selloff in IT stocks.

Offsetting these pressures, strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals — robust retail demand and sustained infrastructure momentum — provided a floor.

U.S. stocks remained highly volatile, pulled in opposing directions by a pivotal Federal Reserve policy shift and fast-moving geopolitical developments. For the week, the Nasdaq gained 1.9%, the S&P 500 added 1.1%, and the Dow finished marginally higher.

The Fed's midweek meeting — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, but the accompanying tone was decidedly hawkish.

Nifty closing above 24,000 after a long pause marks a clear breakout, but the real story is happening beneath the headline index. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks have begun to

show greater momentum than large-cap names.

Expect smaller stocks to continue outperforming in the medium-term, as valuations re-rate and earnings recover across cyclical segments.

Indian markets are set to open higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Hopes of IRAN-US Breakthrough Bouy Global Markets

Indian markets posed to open on a constructive note, buoyed by progress on U.S. – Iran agreement

U.S. equities rallied sharply on Thursday, led by a strong rebound in semiconductor stocks, after President Donald Trump announced the suspension of planned strikes on Iran and signalled that a deal with Tehran is nearing completion.

Trump yesterday stated that the U.S. is close to finalizing an agreement ensuring Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, adding that the deal is in its final stages and expected to be signed soon.

The S&P 500 advanced 1.75% to close at 7,394.30, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.54% to 25,809.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 929.97 points, or 1.86%, to settle at 50,848.75.

A rebound in Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel provided momentum to the market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) gained more than 8%.

On the macro front, the U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.1% in May, exceeding expectations of 0.7%. However, core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.4%, slightly below estimates of 0.5%.

Crude oil prices declined sharply, with WTI falling toward $86 per barrel, its lowest level since April, following easing geopolitical tensions.

Treasuries rallied on Thursday, sending yields lower across the board, as oil dropped. Gold extended its climb to over $4,210 an ounce. The dollar was a touch stronger against all its Group-of-10 peers.

Asian markets opened firmly higher, tracking the strong rally on Wall Street amid optimism surrounding the potential U.S.–Iran agreement.

Back home, Indian benchmark indices witnessed another volatile session. The Nifty ended 53 points lower at 23,161. After opening with a gap-down of 110 points on weak global cues, the index staged a sharp intraday recovery of over 250 points. However, selling pressure in the latter half erased gains, dragging the index down more than 230 points from the intraday high of 23,327. Broader markets continued to underperform for the second consecutive session, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 declining by 0.81% and 0.67%, respectively.

After two sessions of gains, the Indian Rupee depreciated by 50 paise yesterday, pressured by rising Middle East tensions, fresh dollar demand due to forward maturities, and a rebound in the dollar index driven by safe-haven flows.

Technically, Nifty found support near the previous swing low of 23,070 and attempted a recovery. This price action indicates the potential formation of a double bottom pattern on the daily chart, highlighting the significance of the 23,070 support level. For further upside, a decisive breakout above 23,425 is crucial. A sustained move above this level could trigger a pullback rally toward the next resistance at 23,700.

Indian markets are set to open higher on conducive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

U.S. stocks Fell Sharply as President Trump Threatens more Iran attacks

U.S. stocks tumbled sharply on Wednesday after President Donald Trump warned that talks with Iran were “taking too long” and threatened further action. The Dow plunged 953.33 points (1.87%) to 49,918.78, the S&P 500 slipped 1.62% to 7,266.99, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.98% to 25,169.50.

Semiconductor names again led the weakness. Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom all declined, marking their fourth down day in five sessions. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped more than 3%.

Some traders attribute selling in chip names to position adjustments ahead of Friday’s SpaceX IPO, with retail investors freeing up capital for what could be the largest IPO ever.

On the macro front, May’s core consumer price index (ex-food and energy) was a bit lower than expected at 0.2% month-on-month versus a 0.3% consensus. Year-on-year core CPI held at 2.9%, matching estimates but still above the Fed’s 2% target. Headline inflation, which includes all items, climbed above 4% for the first time in three years.

In commodities, gold plunged over 4% amid a stronger dollar and equity weakness, while oil rallied after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran stoked fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Brent August futures gained nearly 2% to about $95 a barrel.

Asian markets opened lower, dragged by the Wall Street selloff and rising crude, with renewed U.S.-Iran tensions adding to risk-off sentiment.

Coming to our markets, Indian benchmark indices witnessed another volatile session yesterday, with the Nifty closing 27 points lower at 23,214. After a muted start the index rallied more than 200 points from early lows in the first half, but a sharp reversal in the second half erased gains.

The broader markets faced significant selling pressure, with the Microcap 250, Smallcap 100, and Midcap 100 all forming bearish engulfing patterns on the daily charts. After Monday’s outperformance, these indices lagged the benchmark yesterday, as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 fell 1.49% and 1.33%, respectively. Market breadth weakened considerably, with the BSE advance-decline ratio sliding to 0.54.

Technically, Nifty remains in a downtrend, trading below all key moving averages. A decisive close below 23,000 could trigger further downside towards the 22,700–22,800 support zone, while 23,515 is expected to act as immediate resistance on any pullback.

Indian markets are expected to open lower on the back of weak global cues

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

U.S. stocks ended mixed but recover from deep losses amid renewed US-Iran tensions

U.S. equities ended mixed on Tuesday, recovering from steep intraday losses amid heightened geopolitical tensions after President Donald Trump warned of retaliation following an Iranian attack that shot down an American helicopter.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to close at 7,385.48, recovering from an intraday decline of as much as 2.3%. The index recorded a sharp 3.4% bottom-to-top reversal—its second largest since April 2025, when the Trump administration paused additional tariffs, according to Bloomberg data.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% to 25,678.82, trimming a steeper fall of 3.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 50,870.94 after reversing losses of up to 1.1%.

Sentiment weakened after initial hopes of Middle East de-escalation faded, with Trump confirming that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.

In commodities, gold and silver dropped to two-month lows amid rising rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Brent crude rebounded 1% today to $92.50 per barrel after briefly slipping below $90 yesterday.

Asian markets trading lower today, tracking geopolitical concerns and a selloff in technology stocks.

On the domestic front, The Indian rupee appreciated by 36 paise yesterday to close at 95.35 against the dollar, supported by a risk-on sentiment driven by a weaker US dollar and softer crude oil prices amid easing geopolitical concerns. Additionally, renewed inflows into the debt market, following recent RBI measures, lent further support to the currency.

Indian markets rebounded strongly yesterday after sharp fall on the Monday. The Nifty 50 gained 119 points and ended near day high to close at 23243. Broader markets outperformed, with midcap and smallcap indices posting gains, supported by strong market breadth.

Technically, Nifty managed to hold above the previous session’s low of 23,070, which is a constructive sign indicating buying interest at lower levels. However, the current rebound is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. A decisive move above 23,516 is required to negate the prevailing downtrend. On the downside, the 23,000–23,100 zone remains a key support. A break below 23,000 could accelerate declines toward the 22,700–22,800 zone.

Indian markets are expected to open mildly lower, tracking weak Asian cues, while midcap and smallcap stocks are likely to continue their outperformance.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

A Trillion-Dollar Selloff

Wall Street experienced a significant downturn as the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 4.18%, marking its steepest single-day decline since early 2025. This selloff was primarily driven by heavy losses in the semiconductor industry, with major players like Nvidia and Micron seeing sharp drops following a robust May jobs report that increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Friday's market rout erased $1.4 trillion in S&P 500 value, triggered by Broadcom's disappointing AI revenue guidance and a strong May jobs report that reignited fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

SpaceX plans to raise at least $75 billion by selling over 555 million shares at $135 apiece, setting a valuation of over $1.75 trillion in what would be one of the largest IPOs in history. Demand for SpaceX shares has triggered significant selling across other equities as retail and institutional buyers raise cash.

The 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.17%, its highest level since February 2025, while the 10-year yield rose to approximately 4.55% as investors reacted to a hot labor market report. This surge reflects growing market consensus that persistent inflation and economic resilience may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary stance through the remainder of the year.

Asian markets tumbled sharply on Monday, with South Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI dropping 8% and triggering a 20-minute trading halt before recovering intraday to 4.5% losees, while Japan's Nikkei fell 3.5% in today's trade.

Global oil prices climbed on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with Brent crude trading near $96 per barrel as missile exchanges threatened to unravel a fragile ceasefire and stoke supply disruptions. Prices surged further after Iran launched multiple missile waves at Israel following renewed Israeli airstrikes on Beirut.

OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to lift output targets by 188,000 bpd from July — its fourth straight monthly increase — but the move is largely symbolic. Gulf state export restrictions have gutted actual production, with April output collapsing to 33.19 million bpd from 42.77 million bpd in February.

India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q4 FY26 (January-March 2026), beating expectations. The full-year FY26 growth came in at 7.7%, up from 7.1% in FY25 and slightly above the government's earlier forecast of 7.6%. Growth was driven by strong manufacturing, services, consumption, and investment, though agriculture slowed. The RBI has since cut its FY27 growth forecast from 6.9% to 6.6%, citing geopolitical tensions and monsoon uncertainties.

The RBI's MPC announced on Friday that the repo rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive meeting, maintaining the "neutral" policy stance. The committee raised India's CPI inflation projection for FY27 to 5.1% from 4.6%, while lowering the FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.9%, amid concerns over the Middle East conflict and rising crude oil prices.

The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate continues at 5%, with MSF rate and Bank Rate unchanged at 5.5%, ensuring liquidity management remains aligned with the monetary framework. The MPC voted unanimously for the status quo on rates, citing the weakening rupee, geopolitical risks to economic growth, and the need to monitor inflation dynamics more closely before considering any further rate adjustments. Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasised India's resilience against global economic shocks while maintaining confidence in price stability and supporting sustainable growth in the coming quarters.

Nifty has been consolidating in a narrow range, indicating a lower-range consolidation. The index remains below key moving averages, maintaining a bearish bias.

Near-term support lies in the 23,000-23,100 band, while immediate resistance is placed at 23,557.

Indian markets are poised to open sharply lower on the back of weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Navigate AI Optimism and Middle East Tensions, Global AI Rally Lifts Nifty IT

Major U.S. stock indexes - the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq — notched record highs for a fifth consecutive session, marking the longest such streak since 2017, driven by sustained investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence infrastructure and semiconductors.

The S&P 500 edged up 0.13% to close at 7,609.78, extending its longest winning streak in over a year. The Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly in tandem, lifted by chipmaker outperformance and persistent appetite for AI-driven growth — even as geopolitical tensions exerted a countervailing drag.

Alphabet fell nearly 4% after announcing plans to raise $80 billion through equity issuance to fund its AI buildout, which targets up to $190 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. The raise includes a $10 billion commitment from Berkshire Hathaway.

Infrastructure optimism fueled broad gains across the semiconductor sector: Texas Instruments rose 4%, Broadcom rose 5.2%, Monolithic Power rose 5.36%, and Microchip rose 5.94%. Texas Instruments stands out as the year-to-date leader in the space — up 76% versus Nvidia's 19% — powered by a 90% year-over-year surge in data center revenue in Q1.

Marvell Technology surged over 30% after Nvidia's CEO suggested the company could become the next trillion-dollar chipmaker. Hewlett Packard Enterprise gained 19% following strong earnings and an acceleration of its long-term financial targets, underpinned by robust demand for AI servers.

U.S. Central Command confirmed Tuesday that it intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones and launched defensive strikes in response to what it described as attempted attacks — the latest exchange threatening an already fragile regional ceasefire.

Bitcoin tumbled more than 5%, falling through the $70,000 and $68,000 support levels to its lowest price since April. The sell-off was triggered by Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosing an unusual bitcoin sale, which cascaded into broader weakness across digital assets, including Ethereum and Solana.

Oil prices continued to climb as Iranian missile activity and contradictory signals from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks sustained a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by declining U.S. crude inventories, reinforced supply-tightening concerns.

Asia-Pacific markets opened broadly higher today, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high, as investors appeared to look past uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

The rupee began the month on a subdued note but weakened as the session progressed, pressured by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical concerns, and persistent foreign capital outflows. After opening lower, the currency continued to decline and settled near its intraday low, reflecting sustained dollar demand from importers.

Nifty snapped its four-day losing streak, gaining 100 points to close at 23,483 yesterday. The Nifty IT index surged over 4%, marking its largest single-day rally of the year. Nifty briefly breached the swing low of 23,262 but managed to hold above the lower band of the April 8 upward gap at 23,153. The index also sustained above the key support level of 23,106. Yesterday's low of 23229 now serves as an important support. A decisive trend reversal would require a close above 23,800.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued on higher crude oil prices.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs on hopes of an extended U.S.- Iran ceasefire

U.S. equities extended their rally on Thursday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing at record highs for a third consecutive session. The gains were driven by improving geopolitical sentiment after reports indicated that the U.S. and Iran are close to finalizing a deal to temporarily halt their three-month conflict.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, marking its sixth straight day of gains, led by strength in healthcare and technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, rising 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.05%.

Dell Technologies delivered strong earnings beat post-market, with shares surging over 20% in extended trading. The company also issued an upbeat outlook, highlighting robust demand for AI-driven data center infrastructure, particularly its Nvidia-powered servers.

On the macro front, U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending climbed 0.1% in April, in line with expectations. Core PCE prices in April rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the year, against estimates of 0.3% and 3.3%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ending May 23, 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The US economy also grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, with GDP expanding at an annual rate of 1.6%, short of economist forecasts for 2% growth and down from 2% in the prior quarter.

Energy markets saw a significant shift as benchmark U.S. crude prices dropped from nearly $93 to approximately $88 per barrel. The drop reflects easing supply concerns amid progress in U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, which could help stabilize global energy markets.

Asian markets traded higher on Friday, tracking the positive global sentiment and optimism surrounding geopolitical developments.

On the domestic front, Wipro has announced an expanded partnership with ServiceNow to implement and scale agentic AI workflows across core enterprise functions. The collaboration aims to reduce manual coordination, improve operational visibility, and accelerate execution at enterprise scale. Wipro ADR surged over 18% yesterday on Wall Street.

Out of the Nifty pack, Asian Paints and IndiGo are scheduled to announce their quarterly and annual results today.

Indian markets ended Wednesday on a muted note. The Nifty 50 slipped marginally by 6 points to close at 23,907, extending its losing streak to a second session. Broader markets continued to outperform, with midcap and smallcap indices posting gains, supported by positive market breadth.

Indian markets are expected to open subdued as they are likely to absorb global cues of last two days. Technically, immediate support for the Nifty is seen at 23,800, aligned with the 20-day EMA and prior breakout zone, with a stronger base near 23,600. On the higher side, recent swing high of 24100 is likely to act as an immediate resistance.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Semiconductors Surge, Yields Retreat

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Tuesday, led by a historic surge in semiconductor stocks. Micron Technology jumped 19% on AI optimism, pushing its market capitalisation past $1 trillion. The Nasdaq 100 also hit a record, while the Dow Jones edged down roughly 0.2%.

NVIDIA reported blockbuster quarterly earnings, with CEO Jensen Huang projecting the company could capture $35 billion for every $50 billion in AI infrastructure spending. Despite strong results, shares traded at $214.87 — below the 52-week high of $236.54 — with BofA noting the stock sits at just 17.5x 2027 earnings, well below its five-year average.

Oil prices showed mixed movement as investors weighed U.S. strikes on Iranian vessels against positive rhetoric regarding potential peace negotiations. These geopolitical developments remain central to market sentiment as they directly impact global inflation pressures.

U.S. Treasury yields retreated following the Memorial Day holiday as investors reacted to potential progress in negotiations to end the war with Iran. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped more than 8 basis points to settle at 4.489% as markets weighed the prospect of a deal that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Wednesday, with Japan and South Korea’s benchmark indices hitting new highs as investors assessed recent U.S. military action in Iran, the fragile state of the Washington-Tehran ceasefire and optimism that a deal could still be reached.

Shares of SK Hynix jumped as much as 11% on Wednesday, lifting the South Korean chipmaker’s market capitalisation above $1 trillion as investors continued to pile into artificial intelligence-linked semiconductor stocks.

China’s industrial profits in April surged by 24.7% from a year earlier, according to official data released Wednesday, marking the fastest growth since November 2023.

The increase accelerated from a 15.8% rise in March,

Indian rupee snapped its three-day winning streak, with a sharp 45-paise depreciation. The local currency buckled under heavy pressure, driven by a weakening of the Asian currency basket, a shift toward global risk aversion, and a spike in crude oil prices following US military strikes.

From Nifty, the earlier breakout zone of 23,800–23,850 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by 23,600. On the upside, 24,100 remains a key near-term resistance level.

Indian markets are poised to open flat to mildly negative, tracking subdued global cues. The monthly expiry of Sensex derivatives is expected to drive volatility in today's session. With markets closed tomorrow for a public holiday, traders may look to reduce their positions ahead of the break.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Deal Optimism Lifts Markets, but Fresh Strikes Cloud the Outlook

Iran's top negotiator and foreign minister travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's prime minister on a potential agreement to end the war, even as Washington and Tehran both played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough.

Investor optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace deal was tempered by fresh U.S. strikes in the Middle East.

U.S. Central Command said the strikes were intended to protect the troops from threats posed by Iranian forces, as President Trump continued pressing for a regional peace deal. Trump also urged Arab nations to sign the Abraham Accords, which would normalise relations with Israel.

On Monday, stocks surged while the dollar and oil prices fell as optimism about a deal lifted risk appetite. Brent crude dropped to around $95 a barrel amid signs of a potential ceasefire and hopes of restored flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though some investors cautioned that a finalised agreement could take time.

Foreign ministers from Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. are set to meet in New Delhi to reinvigorate the Indo-Pacific grouping known as the Quad.

The European Commission cut its 2026 Eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%, citing fallout from the Middle East conflict, while revising its inflation projection upward to 3.0% due to soaring energy costs.

Indian equities staged a sharp recovery on May 25, with the Nifty surging over 300 points past the key 24,000 level, lifted by improved global risk appetite on reports of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks.

The rupee also rebounded, strengthening toward the month-end after touching a historic intraday low of 96.6 against the dollar. The currency has been under sustained pressure in 2026 — weighed down by elevated crude prices and foreign outflows — but the shift in Middle East diplomatic sentiment has offered meaningful relief.

Nifty's decisive close above 23,800 marks a breakout from its consolidation range. The next resistance levels sit at 24,370 and 24,600, while 23,800 now flips to immediate support.

Indian markets are set to open flat, with U.S. markets closed yesterday leaving little in the way of global cues.

Price action over the next two sessions will largely be shaped by derivative expiries — NSE today and BSE tomorrow — before markets shut for a holiday on Thursday. Expect broad consolidation following yesterday's surge.

Dow Scales New Heights Amid Crude Swings

The Dow closed at a new record of 50285, gaining 0.6% after erasing early losses. This rally followed a sharp midday reversal in oil prices, with Brent crude falling over 2% as investors grew hopeful about progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Shares in the quantum computing sector soared after reports emerged of a $2 billion U.S. government funding plan to boost the industry.

The Commerce Department announced $2 billion in funding allocated to nine quantum computing companies, including IBM, Rigetti, and GlobalFoundries, with the U.S. government taking equity stakes in return. The move signals a major federal commitment to next-generation computing infrastructure.

NVIDIA shares declined nearly 2% despite the company reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results and issuing a rosy revenue outlook. Investors appeared cautious about the sustainability of its rapid growth amid intensifying competition in the AI chip market and a broader cooling of the recent artificial intelligence stock boom.

Walmart reported impressive sales and profit growth, yet shares fell as investors fretted over the retailer's warning that rising fuel costs and a 3.8% inflation rate — outpacing wages for the first time — could pressure price-conscious consumers. The ongoing Iran conflict's impact on energy and supply chain costs added to the cautious outlook.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 4.56% on Thursday, pulling back from recent highs that reached their most elevated levels since early 2025. The decline in yields was closely linked to the retreat in oil prices, providing relief to smaller companies in the Russell 2000, which outpaced major indexes with a 0.9% gain.

Oil prices resumed their rally after declining for three straight sessions as investors remained sceptical about a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, with Iran's Supreme Leader earlier forbidding uranium removal. While statements from the U.S. had signalled the peace deal was imminent, the Iranian leadership’s reported stance of keeping enriched uranium within their country has raised worries of an extended conflict, keeping oil supplies disrupted for longer.

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Friday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts at reaching a peace deal in the Middle East.

Over the last six trading sessions, Nifty has slipped into an alternating pattern of one session of gains followed by one of losses. Nifty opened 171 points higher on the back of strong global cues, touched its intraday peak of 23859 within the first few minutes, but failed to sustain momentum and reversed sharply. It declined more than 260 points from the high and eventually closed at 23654, down 4 points yesterday.

Immediate support is now seen near 23,400. On the upside, a decisive close above 23,800 could trigger a pullback towards 24016.

Indian markets are poised to open mildly higher on conducive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets rally on Diplomatic Progress and Nvidia Beat

Major U.S. stock indexes surged on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak as the Dow Jones reclaimed the 50,000 mark. This rebound was driven by a cooling in 10-year Treasury yields and a sharp decline in oil prices following reports of progress in diplomatic negotiations regarding Middle East conflicts.

AI industry leader Nvidia reported first-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations for both revenue and profit. Despite raising its dividend and providing a positive sales forecast. The company also announced an $80 billion share buyback, though shares slipped slightly in after-hours trading as investors weighed the results against extremely high market expectations.

Crude Oil plunged more than 5% yesterday on optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement. President Trump stated the US is in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran, stoking hopes for a near-term reopening of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though the US military also boarded an Iranian oil tanker suspected of breaching the blockade.

Federal Reserve minutes revealed that an increasing number of policymakers are open to a rate hike, as inflation concerns have been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to a 15-month high above 4.10%, and a survey shows fewer than 50% of economists now expect a rate cut this year, down from two-thirds just a month ago.

European Union negotiators reached a preliminary agreement on Wednesday to eliminate certain tariffs on US imports as part of a broader trade arrangement, ahead of a looming US deadline to increase tariffs on automobiles. The development marks a positive step in transatlantic trade relations and contributed to broader market optimism in the session.

South Korean stocks rose more than 6%, helping the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index gain 1.2%. Shares of Samsung Electronics climbed as much as 7% after the company reached a last-minute agreement with its labour union to avoid a strike.

The US Dollar Index traded softer near 99.1, as improving market sentiment around US-Iran diplomatic progress weighed on safe-haven demand.

The rupee closed 29 paise weaker at 96.83 against the dollar, marking a fresh all-time low. The sharp rupee weakness likely reflects persistent FII outflows, elevated crude prices, and safe-haven demand for the dollar amid global risk-off sentiment.

Nifty registered a smart intraday recovery of nearly 300 points from the morning low of 23,397, finally settling at 23,659, up 41 points. Despite negative cues, Nifty has managed to absorb supply at lower levels and is forming higher lows on a short-term time frame. The rebound was largely supported by buying interest in the oil and gas, financial, and automotive sectors, offsetting broader weakness seen in Asian markets.

Support for the index now moves up to around 23,370. A close above the 23800 resistance could extend the pullback towards the next resistance placed near 24,030.

Indian markets are set to open higher on conducive global cues.

Dow Advances while Tech Retreats

U.S. stock indexes saw divergent performances yesterday, as a rally in cyclical stocks buoyed the Dow while tech shares pressured other benchmarks. The Dow rose roughly 0.32% to close at 49686, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both logged back-to-back losses, sliding 0.07% and 0.51% respectively.

Technology shares faced significant pressure, led by a sharp decline in semiconductor and memory stocks. Industry leaders like Seagate and Micron reported substantial losses after executives' comments suggested that memory chip capacity expansions would take considerable time, raising doubts about the industry's ability to meet surging AI-related demand.

Alphabet stock rallied 2.27%, touching a new 52-week high of $406. The move came as investors positioned ahead of anticipated catalysts, with Berkshire Hathaway also reportedly increasing its stake in the company.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained elevated near 4.6% as investors balanced easing bond-market volatility with persistent concerns regarding oil-driven inflation. While yields pulled back slightly from session highs, they remain at their highest levels since early 2025, reflecting a market that is increasingly pricing in a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment through the end of 2026.

Crude prices cooled off a little after President Trump announced he had called off a planned strike on Iran, following appeals from Persian Gulf allies. Trump added that 'serious negotiations are now taking place,' spurring optimism that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could eventually be restored.

The US Dollar Index slipped toward the 99.10 region as traders digested fresh geopolitical headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations and an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve.

The Indian rupee reached a fresh all-time low of approximately 96.36 against the US dollar, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia for the year. This depreciation is primarily attributed to rising US Treasury yields and elevated crude oil prices, which have exacerbated concerns over India's balance of payments and imported inflation.

Petrol and diesel prices were increased by 90 paise per litre, the second increase in less than a week.

Nifty defended its swing low support at 23262 yesterday, keeping the near-term bullish outlook intact. With three out of the last four sessions closing in the green, there are early signs of buying interest emerging at lower levels.

Indian markets are poised to open flat to negative amid mixed global cues. The 23,800 level remains a critical resistance, and a decisive breakout above it will be essential for bulls to regain momentum.

Global Markets Retreat As Inflation Pressures Resurface

U.S. equities endured a volatile last week. AI-driven optimism lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs early on, but a barrage of hot inflation data and escalating geopolitical anxiety triggered a sharp global sell-off on Friday, erasing nearly all weekly gains.

The week's defining catalyst was a troubling inflation resurgence. April CPI climbed 0.6% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 3.8% — the highest since May 2023. More alarming was the PPI print: wholesale prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual producer inflation to 6.0% — a level unseen since December 2022.

The bond sell-off accelerated sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.59%, up from below 4.00% as recently as late February. The 2-year yield settled at 4.08%, while the 30-year reached 5.12% — its highest level since 2007.

Markets have abandoned hopes for near-term cuts. Rate futures now imply roughly a 50% probability of a quarter- or half-point hike by December, with a ~49% chance of rates holding and less than 1% pricing in a cut.

The nearly complete US Q1 earnings season has been robust. S&P 500 companies are on pace for revenue growth of 11.4% — the strongest since Q2 2022 — and earnings growth of 27.7%, the best since Q4 2021.

The Indian equity market also faced steep volatility during the last week, resuming its downward trajectory as global and domestic macro headwinds dented investor sentiment.

The primary market trigger was a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, which drove Brent crude prices past the $100 per barrel mark. For import-dependent India, surging oil prices reignited structural inflation fears.

This macro strain immediately hit the currency market, forcing the Indian Rupee to a fresh historic low of over Rs 96 against the US dollar.

A hotter-than-expected US inflation print (both CPI and PPI) fueled global anxieties that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates higher for longer, triggering a global risk-off environment that hit emerging markets hard.

The Sensex settled 2.7% down while the Nifty shed 2.2% last week. The BSE 150 Mid-Cap index declined 2.65% and the BSE 250 Small-Cap dropped 3.81%.

Nifty is consolidating in a broad range between 23850 to 23250 range. A decisive breakout above 23850 level is needed to revive bullish momentum in the market. On the downside, the swing low of 23,262 continues to act as support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open 100 points lower from Friday's close near 23550 levels.

Dow Reclaims 50000, Constructive Signals from the Trump-Xi Summit, Doemstic Fuel Prices Hiked by Rs 3 per Litre

U.S. equity markets surged Thursday as the Dow reclaimed the 50,000 milestone and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs.

The rally was driven by AI optimism, the blockbuster Cerebras IPO, and constructive signals from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing — where Boeing and Nvidia deal announcements drew particular attention.

Cisco jumped more than 13% after beating Q3 earnings estimates and raising its full-year revenue guidance. Cerebras soared 68–99% in its market debut, the largest IPO of 2026.

Nvidia gained over 4% after reports that the U.S. cleared several Chinese firms to purchase its H200 chips.

Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year hovering near 4.48%. Inflation data remained mixed — producer and consumer prices stayed elevated, though wholesale prices posted a surprise decline earlier in the week. The Treasury is managing a $125 billion securities refunding maturing today.

Oil prices pulled back, as traders balanced cautious summit optimism against the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The EIA raised its U.S. crude production forecast to 13.65 million bpd, while OPEC trimmed its 2026 demand-growth outlook citing the impact of regional conflicts on trade routes. It projects global oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day year-over-year in 2026, adding further pressure on prices.

The Indian rupee recovered part of its losses after touching a record low of 95.96 against the US dollar. It rebounded on expectations that the government may reduce taxes on foreign investment in bond allocations to support capital inflows, and finally closed at 95.77, down 6 paise for the day. The currency’s partial recovery provided some comfort to the broader market sentiment.

Nifty extended its recovery for a second straight session, surging 277 points to close at 23,689. A decisive breakout above 23,800 would strengthen the bullish setup and open the door for a move toward the next resistance near 24,100. The recent swing low of 23262 has emerged as immediate support and can be used as a stop-loss level for long positions.

Indian markets are likely to open flat on mixed market cues.

Nvidia's $5.5 Trillion Milestone Drives US Markets to New Heights

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs on Wednesday, led by a broad technology rally even as hotter-than-expected inflation data tempered sentiment.

Gains were concentrated at the top, as roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents finished the session lower, underscoring the narrow breadth beneath the headline records.

NVIDIA was the standout, surging 2.29% to become the first company in history to reach a $5.5 trillion market capitalisation. CEO Jensen Huang's appearance alongside President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Beijing summit lent the stock additional momentum.

Micron Technology also advanced on AI-driven optimism. After the close, Cisco Systems jumped 18% in extended trading following an earnings beat and an AI-focused restructuring that includes approximately 4,000 job cuts.

On the macro front, inflation continued to reassert itself. April's Producer Price Index rose 6.0% year-over-year — the fastest pace since December 2022 — and climbed 1.4% month-over-month, exceeding consensus on both measures.

Core wholesale prices advanced 5.2% annually. The print compounds Tuesday's April CPI reading of 3.7% and a Q1 PCE of 4.5%, stacking a formidable case that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Boston Fed President Susan Collins separately flagged a potential rate hike as a tail risk should inflationary pressures broaden, though she was careful to characterise it as outside her base case.

The 10-year Treasury yield pressed toward 4.5%, and rate-cut expectations for the remainder of the year have largely been priced out ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.

Asian markets are trading higher today as investors look to a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for clues on the future of U.S.-China ties and global trade.

The Indian rupee weakened for a fourth straight session and plummted to an all-time low of 95.80 per dollar. Despite the government’s move to raise import duties on gold and silver to discourage purchases, the currency remained under pressure amid sustained foreign capital outflows.

Government banned sugar exports with immediate effect until September 30, 2026, or until further orders, as the world’s second-largest sugar producer moved to contain rising domestic prices. The restrictions apply to both raw and white sugar exports, although shipments already in the pipeline will be permitted under specified conditions.

Nifty snapped its four-session losing streak, rising 33 points to close at 23412. The recovery was supported by strong performance in the metal, oil, and gas sectors, despite continued selling pressure in the IT and Auto stocks. The former support near 23800 is now likely to act as resistance on pullbacks, while immediate downside support is seen around 23100.

Indian markets are likely to open higher on strong global cues.

Semiconductors Slide in the US, Nifty Bleeds on Austerity Measures, Govt. Hikes Import Duty on Bullion.

Major U.S. stock indexes pulled back from recent all-time highs as a massive surge in semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks lost momentum. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both ended Tuesday lower, with notable declines in large-cap chipmakers like Micron and AMD following a period of extreme outperformance.

Consumer price index data for April showed an annual inflation rate of 3.8%, surpassing forecasts and marking the highest level since May 2023. This persistent price growth, driven largely by energy costs, has led market participants to price out immediate rate cuts and instead increase bets on potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes later this year.

Oil prices continue to climb amid unresolved U.S.-Iran tensions, with President Trump dismissing Iran's peace proposal and calling ceasefire talks on 'life support.'

Intel fell 10% to around $116, and AMD dropped 5% to approximately $436 on Tuesday, pulling back sharply after Intel surged 35% and AMD gained 34% in just the prior week.

The Q1 2026 earnings season is proving exceptionally robust, with approximately 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting results that exceed analyst estimates.

The Indian rupee extended its losing streak to a third day, hitting an intraday record low of 95.74 amid general weakness in Asian markets. The depreciation is largely attributed to anxieties over elevated crude oil prices and their adverse impact on the fiscal deficit. Combined with rising risk aversion and sustained foreign capital outflows, these factors have positioned the rupee as the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year.

Nifty witnessed a sharp and broad-based sell-off, declining for the fourth consecutive session and ending 436 points lower at 23,379, marking its steepest single-day fall of the current financial year. Nifty has now surrendered over 1,100 points from its recent swing high of 24,482 in just four days.

Sectoral performance was overwhelmingly negative, with the Nifty IT and Realty indices each crashing by roughly 4%.

IT majors like TCS and Infosys reached new annual lows, pressured by concerns over AI-led service disruptions and a general retreat from growth stocks amid unfavourable global cues.

In a strategic move to curb imports and support the falling rupee, the Indian government increased the import duty on gold and silver to 15%. This policy adjustment aims to protect foreign exchange reserves and narrow the widening trade deficit caused by high energy prices and sustained capital outflows.

Nifty is now placed below its key short-term averages. The earlier support level of 23800 is now expected to act as a resistance on any pullback. On the downside, immediate support is placed near 23100.

Indian markets are likely to open flat on subdued global cues.

The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire on the Edge of Collapse, Markets to shift focus to US-China Summit

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs - 7,412 and 26,274, respectively — as strength in technology and semiconductors outweighed investor unease over the collapse of Iran ceasefire talks.

Market sentiment remains buoyed by the belief that the AI supercycle is in its early stages, with major firms like Micron reaching new record levels.

After President Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," Brent crude surged to $105 per barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.41% as markets repriced for inflation risk ahead of Tuesday's April CPI release, which economists expect to show a 3.7% year-over-year gain.

The euro held flat against the dollar at $1.18, repeatedly testing but failing to clear that resistance level, with currency markets effectively in a holding pattern until the inflation print.

President Trump and Xi Jinping are set for sweeping talks covering Iran, nuclear policy, trade, and AI — one of the most consequential U.S.-China summits in years. The breadth of the agenda signals a deliberate thaw, with both sides engaging across every major axis of strategic and economic tension.

Executives from Apple, Boeing, Citi, Tesla, and Meta are joining Trump in China, one of the most significant corporate delegations ever to accompany a sitting president.

Their presence confirms that trade normalisation and market access sit at the heart of the U.S. agenda. The outcome of the summit could materially shift global markets, energy dynamics, and the AI race simultaneously.

The Indian rupee began the week on a weak footing, depreciating by 83 paise to close at a record low amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The decline was primarily driven by a breakdown in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and strengthened the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Domestic sentiment was further dampened by Prime Minister Modi’s “Nation First” austerity call, urging reduced fuel consumption and postponement of non-essential foreign travel to conserve foreign exchange reserves.

Nifty extended its losing streak for the third consecutive session, declining sharply by 360 points to settle at 23815, weighed down by rising crude prices and a weakening rupee. Nifty is likely to breach the critical support level of 23,800 at the open. The next strong support comes in at the 23,550-23500 range. On the upside, the 24000–24125 zone is expected to serve as immediate resistance.

Indian markets are likely to open lower today on weak global cues.

Market Summary: Global Records vs. Domestic Austerity

The financial landscape is currently defined by a sharp contrast between record-breaking U.S. and Asian performance and a cautious, "austerity-focused" environment in India.

U.S. Performance: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit fresh record highs last week, marking their sixth consecutive weekly gain. This was fueled by a blowout April jobs report (115,000 new jobs vs. 55,000 forecast) and a massive upward revision in corporate earnings.

Earnings Growth: S&P 500 net income is projected to rise by 27.7%, the strongest growth since 2021.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high Monday morning, jumping 3.67% as it navigated regional tensions and oil price surges.

Energy Surge: Brent crude has climbed back above $105/barrel due to supply disruptions and conflict with Iran. This has made energy the top-performing sector of 2026, up nearly 25% year-to-date.

Sticky Inflation: With U.S. inflation hitting 3.3% and energy costs surging (up 12.5% YoY in March), analysts predict interest rate cuts may be delayed until 2027, with some even eyeing potential rate hikes later this year.

Consumer Sentiment: U.S. sentiment fell to 48.2 in May, reflecting public anxiety over rising fuel and living costs.

While global indexes hit records, Indian benchmarks (Nifty 50 and Sensex) ended the week lower due to foreign outflows and profit booking. The domestic focus has shifted toward economic preservation:

PM Modi’s Appeal: To protect foreign exchange reserves and combat the impact of high oil prices, the Prime Minister has urged citizens to:

Postpone Gold Purchases: Defer buying for at least one year.

Limit Travel: Postpone non-essential foreign vacations and destination weddings.

Adopt Remote Work: Revive pandemic-era WFH habits to save fuel.

Dietary Shifts: Reduce edible oil consumption for health and economic reasons.

Market Outlook: The Indian market is in a consolidation phase. Experts expect the Nifty to oscillate between 23,800 and 24,400, with a likely lower opening today following weak global cues and geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

US Markets Retreat as Hormuz Tensions Push Crude Higher

American forces struck Iranian military facilities responsible for attacks on warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that US forces "do not seek escalation."

Oil resumed its rally Friday after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears that a fragile ceasefire was unravelling and threatening further disruption to one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

The military exchanges injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, with crude jumping roughly 2% in after-hours trading amid revived concerns over energy supply stability and inflation.

US equities retreated with the S&P 500 falling 0.38% to 7,337.11 and the Dow shedding 313 points to 49,596.97 — though both indexes remain well above year-ago levels following April's record monthly advance. Losses were driven by a cooldown in technology stocks, with the Dow slipping more than 0.6% after failing to breach the 50,000 threshold.

Broadcom shares dropped 4% after reports emerged that its landmark $18 billion AI chip deal with OpenAI is facing a major financing hurdle, contingent on Microsoft committing to purchase roughly 40% of the chips. Should Microsoft decline, the financing terms for the project would need to be renegotiated, casting doubt over the timeline of the high-profile partnership.

While long-term appetite for artificial intelligence remains robust, semiconductor firms like Intel and Advanced Micro Devices faced significant pressure, with some shares falling roughly 3%. This retreat follows a period of strong quarterly gains, as investors begin to weigh lofty valuations against actual earnings performance.

The Indian rupee strengthened for the second consecutive session yesterday, appreciating by 36 paise to close at 94.25, supported by gains in Asian currencies. Support came from short covering and steady dollar inflows through domestic banks.

Nifty extended its alternating trend of gains and losses, slipping marginally by 4 points to settle at 24,326. Despite the profit booking during the second half, the broader technical structure remains intact, with the index sustaining the uptrend. Immediate support is at the 24,000 level, while resistance is near 24,600.

Indian markets are likely to open lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Surges to New Highs While Indian Markets Consolidate

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at fresh all-time highs, buoyed by strong mega-cap tech earnings and a modest pullback in crude prices.

The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to five consecutive weeks on Friday, closing 0.3% higher at a record high, led by technology and consumer discretionary sectors. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%, also finishing at a record.

US GDP grew at a 2.0% annualised rate in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025, but fell slightly short of consensus estimates and was well below the 4.4% pace recorded in Q3 2025.

Earnings expectations surged after mega-cap technology companies reported better-than-expected results. With 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported, analysts now project first-quarter earnings growth of 27.1%, up sharply from a 15.0% forecast the prior week.

The past week was a period of consolidation and heightened volatility for the Indian equity markets. While the benchmarks had enjoyed a stellar April—with the Nifty 50 surging over 5.8% for the full month—the final week saw a tactical retreat.

Investors grappled with a combination of higher-for-longer global interest rate signals and a sharp escalation in energy costs driven by geopolitical friction.

The Indian Rupee hit a historic psychological milestone, slipping past the 95-per-US-dollar mark on April 30. This depreciation was accelerated by continued foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows as traders pivoted toward the safety of the US dollar index.

BSE Sensex added 0.3%, and the Nifty gained 0.4% for the week. The BSE 150 MidCap Index gained 0.3%. The BSE 250 SmallCap index jumped 2.0%.

The IT sector was a rare bright spot, acting as a natural hedge against a weakening Rupee. The Banking and Financial Services sectors bore the brunt of the selling pressure, with Nifty Bank falling roughly 1% in the final session of April. Additionally, the Metals and Energy space faced headwinds.

Indian automakers exhibited robust monthly sales, surging 8-10% YoY amid festive demand and lower taxes.

India’s GST collections jumped 8.7 per cent year-on-year to hit an all-time high of Rs 2,42,702 crore in April 2026, according to the latest official data released on Friday, May 1.

Results for four state assembly elections and one Union territory — Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry — are due today and that is likely to drive sentiments in the short run.

Nifty found support near the key 23,800 level, which reinforces its role as pivotal support. Immediate hurdles stand at 24,334 and 24,600.

Indian markets are likely to open higher on strong global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Crude Oil Spikes to $106 on Hormuz Blockade Woes

US stocks closed lower on Thursday, retreating from recent record highs as investors weighed mixed quarterly earnings, fading hopes for a swift diplomatic resolution in Iran, and inflationary pressures. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, with tech shares underperforming and defensive sectors gaining.

The Nasdaq Composite led the declines, down 0.89%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow fell approximately 0.4% each. Market sentiment was dampened by disappointing quarterly results and tempered guidance from key industry players, including ServiceNow and IBM.

The retreat followed stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, even as 81% of the 87 S&P 500 companies reporting so far beat earnings estimates.

Sentiment improved on Thursday evening, as investors reacted to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension.

Intel shares surged more than 20% in extended trading after the chipmaker reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. The upbeat performance was driven by robust demand for data centre processors and artificial intelligence-related workloads, which have become a key growth driver for the company.

Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing conflict with Iran and a continued naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude oil prices toward $106 per barrel.

These rising energy costs have fueled inflationary concerns, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields across maturities. The benchmark 10-year yield recently traded near 4.3% as investors assessed the potential for sustained high interest rates.

Recent economic data indicate a cooling labour market, with weekly jobless claims climbing to 214,000, exceeding previous expectations. Many firms are reportedly holding headcounts steady or only hiring to replace departing workers, a shift from the aggressive hiring seen in prior periods. This trend, combined with sticky inflation, is complicating the Federal Reserve's path for future interest rate decisions.

Driven by surging hedging demand and a flight to safe-haven assets, the Indian rupee weakened for a fourth straight day, depreciating 32 paise against the dollar to hit its lowest level this April.

Nifty has now entered the gap zone between 24,145 and 23,907, formed on 15 April 2026, which may act as short-term support. On the upside, 24,310 and 24,600 are likely to act as resistance levels.

Indian markets are likely to open marginally higher amid strong NASDAQ futures cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US markets surge on geopolitical relief

President Trump's indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which eased geopolitical fears and lifted sentiment alongside strong earnings and AI-driven tech optimism.

U.S. equities rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 up 1% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%, both closing at all-time highs.

The ceasefire provided only partial relief. Iran rejected further talks, its navy seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and VP Vance reportedly paused a diplomatic trip after Tehran refused to participate.

Alphabet's new AI chips and partnerships anchored a broad semiconductor rally.

Tesla beat Q1 earnings but missed revenue estimates; shares fell ~2% after hours after Musk warned of substantially higher capex and confirmed HW3.0 lacks full autonomy.

IBM and ServiceNow dropped 6% and 13% on weak results; UnitedHealth beat estimates and supported broader sentiment.

The 10-year yield rose to ~4.31% and the 2-year to 3.80% after stronger-than-expected March retail sales reinforced expectations of no Fed rate cuts this year.

Asia-Pacific Markets are trading mixed, tracking Wall Street futures.

Indian indices experienced a significant downturn as the Nifty fell 0.81% to close at 24,378. The decline was primarily driven by intense selling in the IT sector following disappointing quarterly earnings and cautious growth forecasts from heavyweights like HCL Technologies.

The rupee extended its three-day slide, depreciating 30 paise amid surging crude prices and West Asia peace deal uncertainties,

Nifty ended its three-session winning streak by falling 198 points to close at 24378. Next support lies at 24,000, while resistance remains between 24,600 and 24,820.

Indian markets are likely to open lower amid muted global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Late-session news of a ceasefire extension lifted US futures after the close.

US futures surged 0.5% after President Donald Trump extended the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, saying the extension was warranted due to Tehran’s government being “seriously fractured.” Trump said the ceasefire would continue “until such time as” Iran’s leaders and representatives submit a “unified proposal” to end the war with the U.S. and Israel.

Earlier in the regular session, US markets extended losses, with all three benchmarks closing down roughly 0.6% after key diplomatic talks in Pakistan were delayed. The Nasdaq briefly touched a fresh all-time high intraday before fading as peace-deal optimism evaporated.

Oil briefly rose before turning lower as investors weighed whether US–Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, hovering near $98/barrel, pared further gains on ceasefire extension hopes.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.29% after a government report showed U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, surpassing economists' expectations. This robust consumer spending data suggests continued economic resilience despite recent geopolitical tensions and high oil prices.

Investors analysed Senate confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, who is being considered to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair.

First-quarter earnings were mixed. Halliburton posted net income of $461 million despite disruptions in the Middle East. Adobe surged in extended trading after announcing a $25 billion buyback. United Airlines delivered a profitable quarter despite higher fuel costs and geopolitical pressure on international routes.

UnitedHealth Group jumped 7% after beating earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook. GE Aerospace and RTX bucked the trend, declining despite their own quarterly beats.

A heavy earnings slate on April 22 — Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines, AT&T, and GE Vernova — will offer investors a broader read on corporate health amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Asian equities opened with a mixed note amid an overnight surge in energy prices and a lack of supportive cues from the global peers.

Back home, HCL Tech and Tata Elxsi Q4 results were lower vs expectations, while PNB Housing Finance beat expectations handsomely, and Persistent Systems delivered another resilient quarter.

SBI Life Insurance Company, Tech Mahindra, Trent, Bharat Coking Coal, Delta Corp, Havells India, L&T Technology Services, Maharashtra Scooters, Oracle Financial Services Software, Sangam India, and Tata Communications will announce their quarterly earnings on April 22.

Nifty extended its winning streak to three sessions yesterday, climbing 211 points to close at 24,576.

The rupee weakened for the second consecutive day, depreciating by 37 paise amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Despite buoyant domestic equities and steady FII inflows, it buckled under a strong US dollar and jittery global oil prices.

The index has now rallied nearly 11% from the recent swing lows. On the downside, support has shifted higher to the 24,200 level, which can serve as a stop-loss for existing long positions.

Indian markets are likely to open marginally lower amid muted global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump signals Iran conflict "close to over"

Global markets rallied as optimism grew that Washington and Tehran were moving toward a framework agreement — easing fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and helping broad markets recoup losses from the recent conflict.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh all-time highs, with the S&P 500 breaching 7000 for the first time. The Nasdaq surged approximately 1.6% to a record finish, led by technology and software stocks. The Dow slipped modestly on Wednesday.

Energy stocks lead year-to-date gains on elevated oil prices, even as crude began to ease on hopes of de-escalating Middle East tensions.

First-quarter earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley topped expectations, propelled by strong equity trading revenues. Executives at both firms pointed to continued U.S. consumer resilience — a constructive signal as the 2026 earnings season gets underway.

Asian equity indices opened in the green zone for the third consecutive session on the supportive global cues.

Indian equity benchmarks rallied on Wednesday, on positive global cues, as optimism grew over a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) emerged as net buyers on April 15 , purchasing equities worth Rs 666 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) turned net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 568 crore.

The index opened sharply higher yesterday, fuelled by robust global cues and falling crude prices and closed at 24231, up 388 points. From the recent swing low of 22182, Nifty has now rallied nearly 2,100 points, or 9.45%, to 24,280 in just eight trading sessions.

Near-term support has now shifted higher to around 24000, while the 24570 may act as the immediate resistance level.

Indian markets are set to open around 0.5% higher, buoyed by hopes of the resumption in US–Iran negotiations.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Hopes of resumption of US–Iran negotiations buoy the markets

US President Trump signalled a second round of U.S.-Iran talks within two days, potentially to be hosted by Pakistan, to ease tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude plunged to $95 as supply disruption fears faded, while spot gold climbed above $4,800/oz on a softer dollar and risk-on sentiment post-cooler U.S. inflation data.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2% to finish its tenth consecutive positive session, the longest stretch of gains for the index since 2021. This rally has successfully pushed the index back into positive territory for the year 2026 after recovering from earlier geopolitical shocks.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.25% as the March producer price index rose only 0.5%, well below the 1.1% consensus estimate. Cooler inflation data, combined with a retreat in oil prices, has increased market expectations for a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

Asian indices opened higher for a second day on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks.

On Monday, Nifty was weighed down by souring global sentiment and a spike in crude oil prices, closing 230 points lower at 23,842. It opened 460 points lower after a breakdown in US-Iran talks, but buyers stepped in at lower levels.

Nifty took support at the 20-day EMA and recovered more than 300 points from the low, ending near the high, suggesting strength. The short-term trend of the Nifty remains strong, and the swing low at 23,555 is likely to act as a strong support going forward, while the 24300-24500 band poses near-term resistance.

As the quarterly results season picks up, stocks will respond to earnings performance relative to expectations.

Indian markets are set to open around 1.5% higher, buoyed by the hopes of resumption in US–Iran negotiations.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P 500 notched its longest winning streak since October

Major U.S. stock indexes rose as investors reacted positively to a fragile two-week ceasefire and reports of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. The S&P 500 closed above the key 6,800 psychological level, while the Dow Jones turned positive for the 2026 calendar year.

The Nasdaq outperformed other major benchmarks, driven by significant gains in mega-cap technology firms. Amazon shares climbed over 5% following internal AI chip developments, while Intel and Alphabet rallied on news of an expanded semiconductor partnership for Google Cloud infrastructure.

Futures edged slightly lower overnight as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and diplomatic talks remained fragile heading into Friday.

Asian equity indices opened higher and are expected to consolidate at higher levels ahead of important talks between the U.S. and Iran regarding the recent geopolitical situation.

TCS reported USD revenue growth of 1.2% QoQ CC, which was in line with estimates, and the margins expanded by 10bps QoQ to reach 25.3% (best in the last eight quarters). TCS indicated better growth visibility for FY27E, bolstered by healthy deal wins, improving outlook, and strategic investments made over the last two quarters.

The growth confidence is led by an improved vertical outlook where BFSI is prioritising data transformation and scaled GenAI, Consumer Business is gaining market share through large-scale renewals, Manufacturing is focusing on supply chain modernisation, and CMI is showing signs of a rebound in IT spending.

The rupee's five-session rally stalled yesterday, shedding 8 paise to end at 92.66, alongside weakening Asian peers, pressured by higher crude prices and relentless FII outflows.

Nifty surrendered some gains yesterday amid dented hopes for a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and fresh inflationary worries. Nifty ended the day with a loss of 222 points, closing at 23,775.

Immediate support is seen around 23,500, while immediate resistance is placed at 24,000 and 24,200 on any rebound attempt.

Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire

President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military strikes against Iran just hours before his 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline, following last-minute Pakistani diplomatic efforts. Iran agreed to allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, triggering sweeping market moves across oil, equities, currencies, and crypto.

WTI Crude Oil tumbled as much as 17% to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Oil had surged above $115 earlier in the session after reports of strikes on Iran's Kharg Island — the hub of roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — before the diplomatic breakthrough reversed the move.

After a muted regular session where the S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, and the Dow fell 0.2%, futures exploded higher post-ceasefire announcement. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.2% to 6,804, Nasdaq futures rallied 2.7%, and Dow futures surged 2%, as investors priced in hopes of a durable peace deal and resumption of Gulf oil flows.

Spot gold climbed 2.5% to $4,821 per ounce, its highest level since March 19, as the weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for foreign holders. Silver surged 4.7% to $77 per ounce, while platinum gained 2.5%, with all three precious metals benefiting from the risk-on shift and dollar softness following the ceasefire.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee wraps up its meeting today and will announce its decision at 10:00 AM. The market expects the RBI's MPC to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%.

A neutral stance is likely to persist, balancing global risks such as tensions in West Asia with domestic liquidity support, and avoiding further cuts unless growth falters.

The Nifty rose 155 points yesterday to close at 23,123, marking its fourth consecutive gain.

The Indian rupee extended its four-session winning run, gaining 5 paise to 93.01, fueled by lower crude prices, domestic equity recovery, and RBI-driven unwinding of bank arbitrage positions.

Nifty has closed above its 10-day EMA for the first time since the U.S.-Iran-Israel War erupted, also topping last week's high. The short-term trend has reversed, with resistance near 23,800-24000 and support at yesterday's low of 22,719.

Indian markets are poised for a strong surge at the open following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and boosting investors' risk appetite.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Brace as Trump's Iran Ultimatum Nears

Global markets are on high alert as a critical geopolitical deadline approaches. Investors are focused on President Donald Trump’s 8:00 PM ET (6:30 AM IST, Wednesday) ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats of military escalation if a deal is not reached.

WTI Crude Oil climbed to $115 as President Trump reaffirmed his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. The Strait, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, has remained disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, driving crude prices up approximately 90% year-to-date.

Iran dismissed a U.S.-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal supported by mediators including Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye, instead demanding a permanent end to hostilities, sanctions relief, and war damage compensation.

U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.44%, the Nasdaq rising 0.54%, and the Dow adding 165 points, as investors parsed mixed signals on Iran negotiations. However, overnight futures retreated as Trump's escalating rhetoric dampened optimism for a ceasefire.

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise supported by risk-on sentiment fuelled by hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East.

The Nifty climbed 255 points to close at 22,968, marking its third consecutive session of gains. Nifty has never risen for more than three consecutive trading sessions since the U.S-Iran War started in late February. Whether this streak holds or breaks will be the defining market moment of today's session.

The short-term resistance for the Nifty is at 23,465, with supports at 22,800 and 22,540.

Our markets are slated to open half a percent lower on the back of cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Pin Hope on Early Resolution to the Hormuz Crisis

The weekend offered no respite - fighting in the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict intensified, peace talks made no headway, with President Donald Trump sharply escalating rhetoric on social media.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly extended his self‑imposed deadlines for bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure to April 7. In his latest social‑media posts, he has framed these extensions as temporary respites, warning that if Iran does not comply by the new deadline, he will unleash “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day” targeting power plants, bridges, and other critical civil infrastructure.

US markets ended the holiday-shortened week higher, snapping a five-week losing streak amid volatility from US-Iran tensions and oil price surges.

Major indices posted strong weekly gains last week - S&P 500 +3.4%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +4.4%.

The U.S. economy generated 178,000 jobs in March, well above economists’ consensus expectations and rebounding from the previous month’s revised net loss of 133,000 jobs.

Indian equity benchmarks ended the shortened week marginally lower, with the Sensex and Nifty closing around 73320 and 22713, respectively, after a sharp intraday recovery on Thursday.

The week saw heavy volatility, beginning with deep corrections on global geopolitical worries and crude oil spikes, but sentiment improved in the latter sessions, halting a multi‑week losing streak for the indices.

Sectorally, IT stocks outperformed while banking and financials remained under pressure, reflecting selective risk‑on flows and ongoing caution in broader midcap and small‑cap segments.

The RBI's MPC meeting is the key event of the week, as it will be the first since the war.

The U.S. and several Gulf states have publicly pushed for mediation, with Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye positioning themselves as potential intermediaries.

Negotiations are underway for a 45‑day ceasefire, but no concrete breakthrough has emerged.

Donald Trump expressed optimism in a recent social media post that a deal with Iran is imminent, extending the negotiation deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST (early Wednesday morning Indian time). The development signals a potential de-escalation in tensions. Should a truce materialise, markets — which have seen notable corrections recently — could be poised for a meaningful rebound.

Indian markets are likely to open flat, digesting the latest geopolitical developments.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ within weeks, Crude oil surges 5% on Trump's defiant tone

In his address to the nation, President Trump declared that U.S. military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion” and that the war could wind down in about two to three weeks, assuming continued pressure and ongoing talks

Trump also struck a defiant tone on energy and global markets, insisting the U.S. will not bear the burden of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arguing that American strength has forced Iran into a weakened position after a month‑long conflict.

Oil prices jumped over 4% after President Trump's prime-time address failed to offer a clear timeline for ending the U.S.-Iran war, with Trump vowing to hit Iran 'extremely hard' over the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, disrupting an estimated 10–15 million barrels per day of supply — the largest oil supply shock in history by volume.

U.S. equities advanced yesterday for a second straight session as diplomatic signals eased tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose roughly 1.2%, and the Dow added 224 points, or 0.48%

Shares of Eli Lilly climbed more than 6% after the FDA cleared a new weight-loss medication with no food or water restrictions. Rival Novo Nordisk edged 0.2% lower following the announcement

Nifty staged a relief rally yesterday, gaining 348 points to close at 22,679 on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.

22,283 will act as a key support, while upside resistance looms at 23,000.

Our markets are poised to open nearly 2% lower on rising fears of intensified military action in the coming weeks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Risk Takes Centre Stage, RBI Comes to the Rupee Rescue

U.S. equity markets ended last week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down about 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 3.2%, marking the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance since the start of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,369, suffering its fifth consecutive weekly loss and entering its longest losing streak in nearly four years.

Equity weakness was driven largely by renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran‑related headlines and fears of a prolonged conflict weighing heavily on risk appetite.

Rate‑sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell‑off. Overall, the week underscored a shift toward risk‑off positioning, with traders repricing the odds of an extended geopolitical standoff and higher-for‑longer rates.

Crude Oil jumped after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi launched missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged, putting it on track for a record monthly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, disrupting an estimated 15–16 million barrels of daily oil flow.

Over the past 48 hours, the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Gulf has intensified, with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region amid stalled diplomacy. Iran has continued to fire missiles and drones at Israeli‑held territory and Gulf‑based US military facilities, while Israel and the US have carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear‑related sites. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz under intermittent Iranian naval pressure, with ripple effects unsettling global energy markets.

US‑backed diplomatic outreach and Gulf‑led shuttle diplomacy have gained modest momentum, but no ceasefire or de‑escalation has been announced yet.

Indian benchmarks extended their decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking one of the most prolonged periods of weakness in recent times. The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low on Friday, touching the 93.98 level against the US Dollar, further dampening investor confidence.

RBI comes to the Rupee Rescue:

The RBI imposed a uniform $100 million limit on the net open foreign exchange positions of banks, replacing the previous flexible cap of 25% of capital to stifle speculative "long-dollar" bets. Banks have been directed to unwind large currency positions by April 10, a move designed to trigger a temporary surge in dollar supply and provide immediate relief to the Rupee. RBI shifted its strategy from direct market intervention to regulatory tightening to preserve its "war chest."

Indian equity markets face a weak open, with a 1% to 1.5% drop expected amid flaring geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. Technically, 23,465 remains a key resistance level, with 22,471 as the nearest support.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets

President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.

Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.

US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.

The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.

Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.

Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.

The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.

Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Celebrate Trump's Peace Overtures

U.S. stock indexes posted their best single-day performance since early February, after a five-day pause in planned military strikes against Iranian infrastructure. The Dow gained over 630 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%.

Iranian state media, however, denied that any direct negotiations had taken place.

Oil markets reversed, a relief that lifted airline and cruise line stocks, which had been under pressure from soaring fuel costs.

Asia-Pacific markets rallied sharply on Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.2%, aided by data showing headline inflation fell to 1.3% in February — its lowest reading since March 2022 — giving the Bank of Japan room to hold off on rate hikes.

The diplomatic shift pulled capital out of safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%, and gold briefly dropped toward $4,100 an ounce before stabilising near $4400 as investors rotated back into equities.

Indian equity markets suffered a significant crash yesterday as geopolitical friction between the U.S. and Iran intensified. The Sensex plunged over 1,800 points, while the Nifty dropped approximately 2.6% to settle near the 22512 level, driven by widespread risk aversion across nearly all sectors.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 93.94 against the U.S. dollar. This depreciation is largely attributed to escalating import energy costs for India and sustained capital outflows from foreign portfolio investors who have withdrawn over ₹1 trillion so far this year.

Fitch Ratings has increased India's economic growth projection for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 7.5%, citing robust domestic demand and infrastructure investment.

Despite the previous session's heavy losses, early indicators suggest a positive opening for Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty is indicating a 1.5% higher opening, reflecting a potential recovery following reports of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Equity markets have corrected roughly 15% from their recent highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties. While there are early signs of a potential truce, the outcome of these peace talks cannot be predicted with certainty. If one waits for a complete cessation of hostilities before acting, current price levels may no longer be available. It is therefore prudent to begin deploying capital into markets where stocks have corrected sufficiently, and valuations offer an adequate margin of safety. A reasonable strategy would be to deploy at least 25% of the capital you have been holding in reserve for the right opportunity. That opportunity is now — the time has come to begin taking measured risks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Beginning of the End of War?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end sooner than expected.

His "verge of victory" remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though volatility persisted, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, but recovered sharply from session lows following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks.

U.S. oil prices extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a joint statement, the U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed a hawkish Federal Reserve against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher.

After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, plunging 775 points (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025.

As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Stocks surge on crude oil pullback

Stocks rebounded sharply on Monday after several consecutive sessions of notable losses, with all major averages closing higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance.

The indexes finished off their intraday highs but remained strongly positive. The Nasdaq surged 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,374; the S&P 500 jumped 67 points, or 1%, to 6,699; and the Dow advanced 387 points, or 0.8%, to 46946.

It was the market's strongest session since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Easing oil prices reduced immediate concerns over energy-driven inflation and its drag on economic growth.

The technology and travel sectors led broad gains. Norwegian Cruise Line rose 5%, and United Airlines climbed 4%, both benefiting from lower fuel costs.

Semiconductor stocks were among the session's standout performers in the technology sector. NVIDIA and Micron posted notable gains as investors reassessed geopolitical risks to global supply chains and demand for digital infrastructure.

The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this ​week.

The Federal Reserve opened its March 17–18 policy meeting today, with markets broadly expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%. Investor focus is on the updated dot plot, as energy-driven inflation has reduced 2026 rate-cut expectations from three to one.

Nifty snapped a three-day losing streak in a session defined by extreme volatility.

Having corrected nearly 13% from its all-time high, Nifty found support in the gap band of 22,923–23,207, setting the stage for a potential pullback rally.

This rebound was driven by bargain hunting in heavyweights across the banking, auto, and FMCG sectors, despite ongoing volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

On the upside, 23,700 emerges as a key resistance to monitor. A decisive break below 22,923 would signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Indian equity markets are set to open on a firm note, supported by favourable global cues.

Foreign investors are sitting on sizable short positions, and any unwinding of those bets could trigger a short-term rally.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Some Semblance of Sanity.

Amid the global fuel crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the strait “remains open" to most vessels and is only closed to ships belonging to the United States, Israel.

This is likely to restore a measure of stability to international energy markets and ease pressure on global financial markets.

The Indian stock market endured one of its most punishing weeks in recent memory.

The broad-based sell off was not confined to equities alone; the Indian Rupee simultaneously collapsed to a fresh record low, and foreign institutional money exited at a pace not seen since early 2025.

US stock markets declined during the last week amid escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation pressures.

In just the first half of the month, FPIs offloaded more than ₹52,700 crore worth of Indian equities — a staggering figure that underscores how quickly global sentiment can reverse capital flows into emerging markets.

The near-term outlook for Indian markets hinges on two critical variables: the trajectory of the Middle East conflict and the direction of global crude oil prices.

Indian markets are likely to open a modestly higher on easing energy prices concerns.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street ends sharply lower as Iran war intensifies

All three major U.S. indexes closed at their lowest points of 2026. The Dow Jones fell more than 700 points to settle below 47,000 for the first time this year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off sharply after Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening fears of a protracted conflict.

Iranian strikes on two oil tankers sent crude surging toward $100 per barrel, compounding inflation fears and driving investors out of equities.

WTI Crude surged past $95 — a nearly 10% single-day gain — while Brent breached $100, its highest close since August 2022. The IEA reported that 7.5% of global oil supply has been disrupted, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at below 10% of pre-war levels as Iran vows not to let "a litre of oil" pass through.

The Federal Reserve convenes on March 17. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but its updated economic projections will be scrutinised for revised inflation estimates — the crude spike from the now 13-day-old conflict has yet to filter through the data.

Asian stocks slumped on Friday, headed for a second straight weekly decline as fading hopes of a swift resolution kept oil prices elevated.

The U.S. dollar, the safe-haven of choice, was set for a second consecutive weekly gain and is up 2% since the conflict began in late February. The Dollar Index surged toward 100, pushing EUR/USD down to around 1.1530 — well off its year-to-date high of 1.2080 — while AUD/USD fell sharply below 0.7100, reversing from recent multi-year highs.

Money market futures now price in just one-quarter-point cut by December, down from two before the conflict, as rate-cut expectations have roughly halved — from 66 basis points to around 30 — in two weeks.

The Trump administration has directed U.S. oil companies and shippers to prepare for a possible waiver of the century-old Jones Act, which governs domestic maritime commerce, in an effort to contain rising fuel costs.

After hitting a record low of 92.36, the rupee clawed back to end 15 paise weaker at 92.19, buoyed by RBI intervention.

Equity markets extended their losing streak for a second consecutive session yesterday, with the Nifty 50 falling 227 points or 0.95% to settle at 23,639.

Nifty’s close at the lowest level in the recent downturn underscores the prevailing bearish momentum.

The Nifty trend remains weak, with immediate support at 23,500 and 23,210. On the upside, the 24000 – 24100 zone remains a formidable ceiling for any recovery attempts.

Indian equity markets are set for a sharply lower open as surging crude oil prices weigh on sentiment.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Uncertainties Keeps Markets on Edge.

Crude oil fell sharply after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing its largest-ever emergency release to address the ongoing supply shortage. The Paris-based body, comprising 32 member states and 13 associate countries, represents up to 75% of global energy demand. Brent Crude oil is currently trading near $90 from its Monday spike near $120 per barrel.

U.S. equities lost momentum on Tuesday as the S&P 500 surrendered early gains to close negative, with the Dow turning lower as well, while the Nasdaq eked out a marginal gain.

Markets were unsettled by fading hopes for an early end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and stagflation concerns — compounded after President Trump threatened retaliation over reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz and demanded Iran's unconditional surrender.

Fresh Iranian strikes and mixed White House messaging continued to cloud the outlook. A tanker explosion near Abu Dhabi further reignited Middle East uncertainty, erasing earlier gains.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 1.8%, snapping a three-session losing streak, as retreating oil prices eased inflation and jet fuel concerns.

Airline stocks led the rebound — Lufthansa and Air France surging approximately 7% and 5% respectively — while Volkswagen rose over 3% despite a 53% year-on-year drop in operating profit.

Asian markets are higher today as easing oil prices lifted sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2% while South Korea's Kospi advanced 3%, recovering a portion of the steep losses sustained earlier in the week, as oil prices pulled back on hopes that emergency crude reserves would be tapped to offset supply disruptions.

President Trump announced that Reliance Industries will back oil refinery at the Port of Brownsville, Texas — the first new U.S. refinery in 50 years, framing it as the largest deal in U.S. history.

After two days of sharp declines, the Nifty staged a strong rebound, closing higher by 233 points or 0.97% at 24,261 yesterday. Nifty stagged a pullback amid strong global cues, reclaiming over 500 points from recent low of 23697. On the higher side, immediate resistance is placed in the 24300-24415 band while 24000 is likely to act as immediate support.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately lower in line with subdued US market cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

A Crude Waiver Paves the Way for Rupee Revival

The U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver permitting Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude already in transit. The exemption allows those shipments to proceed notwithstanding existing sanctions on Russia's energy sector. The move is intended to ease pressure on global oil markets amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Major US stock markets staged a notable recovery attempt in the final hour of trading but still closed in negative territory. The Dow fell 784.67 points, or 1.6%, to 47,954; the S&P 500 slid 38.79 points, or 0.6%, to 6,830; and the Nasdaq declined 58.50 points, or 0.3%, to 22748.

Elevated energy costs reignited inflation concerns. The CBOE VIX spiked 18%, reflecting heightened investor fear, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.13% — its highest in three weeks — as selling intensified, and markets reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

European natural gas futures surged nearly 70% over the week after Qatar suspended liquefied natural gas loadings following Iranian drone strikes on its primary export facilities. Gas stockpiles across Europe have fallen to multi-year lows, and even December 2026 contracts rose around 40% as traders positioned for a prolonged tightening in global gas supply.

Asian equity markets are attempting a recovery from Friday's lower levels. Despite the broad selloff, investor conviction around AI infrastructure in Taiwan and South Korea remains intact.

Gold traded above $5100 per ounce, as the escalating Middle East conflict drove safe-haven demand. Investors shifted increasingly into precious metals and the Japanese yen to hedge geopolitical tail risks, with gold further supported by falling real rates and persistent uncertainty over global energy supply.

Indian Rupee reclaimed most of Wednesday’s losses, appreciating by 55 paise on Thursday. This recovery was supported by suspected central bank intervention and a recovery in risk assets. The rupee also benefited from a pullback in the US dollar and energy prices. Currency markets will breathe a sigh of relief as India secures a crude oil import waiver.

Indian equity markets are poised to open lower today on soft global cues. For Nifty, short-term support now rests at the recent swing low of 24,305, while the 24,850-24,990 zone serves as resistance.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Oil Soars as Middle East Conflict Widens, Global markets sell off as disruption of Middle East energy supplies threatens to reignite inflation

Financial markets turned sharply risk-off on Tuesday as mounting fears of an inflation surge rippled across stocks and bonds worldwide.

Global equities slid as disruptions to Middle East energy supplies threatened to reignite price pressures. Crude oil gained around 5%, while European wholesale natural gas surged a punishing 40%.

United States

After opening sharply lower for the second consecutive session, US stocks staged a partial recovery but failed to match Monday's resilience, ending the day notably in the red. The major averages clawed well off their intraday lows yet remained firmly in negative territory.

The Dow Jones closed down 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,502, having plummeted more than 1,200 points earlier in the session to its lowest intraday level in nearly three months. The Nasdaq fell 232 points or 1%, to 22,516, and the S&P 500 slid 64 points or 0.9%, to 6,816 — both indexes having plunged as much as 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, touching three-month lows at their worst.

WTI crude climbed above $75 a barrel, extending a two-day gain of approximately 11%. Brent traded near $81 a barrel as the widening Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks firmly in focus.

India

Every $1 increase in crude oil raises India's annual import bill by approximately $2 billion.

Data indicate that a 10% rise in crude prices could raise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) by 40 to 80 basis points, while widening the

current account deficit by approximately 30 basis points.

Beyond the energy sector, the paints, lubricants, aviation, and chemicals industries will face significant margin pressure, as oil and its derivatives account for 40% to 70% of their total raw material costs.

Prolonged tensions among the United States, Israel, and Iran are mounting pressure on India across its current account, inflation outlook, and currency stability. Elevated crude prices stand to raise the country's import bill, widen its current account deficit, weaken the rupee, stoke inflation, and trigger foreign capital outflows.

Indian markets are expected to open 2–2.5% lower as leveraged positions are unwound amid the geopolitical developments of the past two days.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Israel-Iran Conflict Rattles Global Markets

Israel's preemptive strike on Iran, carried out jointly with the US, has ignited geopolitical fears and driven global markets to open on a weak footing. Israeli-US military operations entered their third day with casualties reported on all sides, marking the most severe regional conflict in decades.

US stock futures fell sharply as the Iran–US conflict escalated into a broader Middle East war, triggering another spike in oil prices. Dow Jones futures slid approximately 550 points, S&P 500 futures dropped 63 points, and Nasdaq futures declined roughly 270 points in early Monday action.

Oil prices recorded their steepest single-session jump in four years after escalating US–Israeli military strikes against Iran shook global energy markets and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had initially surged more than 8% to multi-month highs as Iran and Israel intensified attacks, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region. Gains have since moderated to around 5%.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow chokepoint off Iran's coast through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and significant volumes of natural gas transit — has come to an abrupt halt, as tanker owners and commodity traders suspend operations pending clarity on the widening conflict.

Gold rose more than 2%, in early sessions, as renewed Middle East hostilities drove investors toward traditional safe-haven assets. The move extended the prior week's gain of over 3%, itself fueled by the growing deployment of US forces in the region.

Asian equities slid approximately 1.5%, with futures on major US and European indices also pulling back in the wake of the US–Israeli military action against Iran.

China's Two Sessions - Markets will also keep an eye on China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings from March 4–11, where the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to be unveiled. The plan is likely to set a lower growth target in the 4.5–5% range for 2026, down from around 5 per cent last year, alongside a moderately expansionary fiscal stance, with the deficit ratio steady at 4 per cent of GDP.

Indian Auto stocks will react to the February numbers announced yesterday.

Nifty is poised to open 0.5%–0.7% lower, with selling pressure concentrated in oil-sensitive sectors — aviation, automobiles, and tyres — against a broad risk-off backdrop.

The Rupee faces headwinds from rising import costs for energy. Markets are likely to find their footing after the initial weakness, as leveraged positions are unwound through the truncated trading week.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Nasdaq Pulls Back Sharply as Nvidia Slumps, but Dow Inches Higher.

The benchmark S&P 500 and European equities finished lower as investors digested another blowout quarter from Nvidia — the world's most valuable company — yet remained uneasy about its valuation even as the chipmaker forecast first-quarter revenue of $78 billion.

The retreat on Wall Street was driven largely by a negative reaction to Nvidia's earnings, with the AI chipmaker tumbling 5.5%. Despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and issuing upbeat guidance, Nvidia failed to satisfy elevated investor expectations, dragging semiconductor stocks lower and souring broader market sentiment.

The Dow's modest gain was cushioned by a sharp rise in Salesforce shares, which surged 4% after the customer relationship software maker reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

Diminishing case for an early easing

The path for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh to deliver the swift rate cuts President Donald Trump has called for appears to be narrowing. Emerging economic resilience — rising CEO confidence, investor positioning around a hawkish shift among Fed policymakers — is complicating the case for early easing.

The IMF reinforced this view on Wednesday, noting that with U.S. growth expected to reach 2.4% this year from 2.2% last year, unemployment hovering near 4%, and inflation declining gradually, the Fed would have "only modest scope to lower the policy rate over the coming year" — likely just a single quarter-percentage-point cut.

Tech heavy asian indices fell in tandem with the NASDAQ

A global equity index retreated after touching a record high on Thursday, as lofty technology valuations weighed on sentiment following Nvidia's results.

In currency markets, the US Dollar Index recovered to 97.9, with the greenback gaining 0.5% against the British pound amid speculation of a March Bank of England rate cut

Tech-heavy indices in Japan and South Korea fell in tandem with the Nasdaq, reflecting deepening concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally.

Nifty spent yesterday's session within a narrow 170-point range throughout the day, with low volatility, barring a couple of intraday swings.

Nifty remained directionless, with no momentum on either side. A band of 25650-25700 would remain an immediate hurdle, while 25250-25350 could offer support for Nifty in the short term. A breakout from this range could finally provide the catalyst for a sustained move.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued on softer global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street stocks tumbled on fears of AI-driven disruption

All three major U.S. indexes closed more than 1% lower in a broad selloff, as risk appetite was weighed down by two converging forces - persistent concerns over AI's disruptive potential and President Trump's erratic trade policy, which has been a primary source of market volatility throughout the first year of his second term.

The Dow Jones plunged 822 points, or 1.7%, as investors digested Trump's newly imposed 15% global tariff — a measure prompted by the Supreme Court's Friday ruling that struck down his emergency tariff authority. Renewed anxiety over AI disruption across software, consulting, and payments triggered broad-based selling. The S&P 500 fell 1%, slipping back into negative territory for 2026.

IBM led the declines, crashing 13%, its steepest single-day loss since October 2000 and its worst performance in more than 25 years — after Anthropic unveiled Claude Code, an AI tool capable of modernising Cobol, the legacy programming language that underpins IBM's core business. Accenture and Cognizant fell sharply in sympathy, and software stocks faced heavy selling pressure across the board.

Financials were the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, dropping 3% in their steepest decline since April. The selloff was partly triggered by Blue Owl Capital's suspension of redemptions, which reignited concerns about the fragility of private credit markets. KKR fell 9%, American Express declined 7.7%, and Capital One dropped 7.5%.

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month. The one-year loan prime rate held at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%.

Asian equity markets opened tentatively today, rattled by Wall Street's overnight losses and clouded by uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions.

Crude oil edged up to $66.52 a barrel, supported by the resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday against a backdrop of American military buildup in the Middle East.

The Nifty extended its winning streak for a second consecutive session, climbing 141 points to settle at 25,713. The index opened firmly higher after the US Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling struck down President Trump's broad emergency tariffs, but corrected nearly 160 points from its morning peak of 25,771 to hit 25,609 before rebounding over 110 points. Nifty failed to clear the 25,885 resistance. A decisive move above it could propel Nifty toward 26,000, while 25,370 remains a key support level.

Indian markets are poised to open lower amid cautious global cues.

We anticipate a recovery from lower levels, supported by continued short covering on the monthly derivative expiry day and emerging buying interest from FPIs in the cash markets.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Iran War Clouds Send Markets Sliding

Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with losses in private equity companies and weakness in Walmart and Apple, while earnings-driven gains in industrials limited losses.

The weakness on Wall Street partly reflected a negative reaction to Walmart's earnings, with the retail giant slumping 1.4 per cent. The company provided weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the current year.

Negative sentiment may also have been driven by a continued spike in crude oil prices amid concerns of a military conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

The major averages finished the day off their lows of the session but still in negative territory. The Dow slid 267 points to 49,395, the Nasdaq fell 70 points to 22682, and the S&P 500 dipped 19 points to 6861.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to launch military strikes against Iran in the next 10 days.

Private equity companies slid after Blue Owl Capital announced it would sell $1.4 billion in assets and freeze redemptions at one of its funds to manage debt and return capital.  Blue Owl tumbled 6%. Apollo Global Management, Ares, KKR & Co and Carlyle Group all fell between 1.9% and 5.2% as Blue Owl's troubles added to recent worries about credit quality and lenders' exposure to software stocks.

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in December amid a surge in imports, and the goods shortfall in 2025 was the highest on record despite tariffs on foreign-manufactured merchandise.

Crude oil jumped above $66 as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated, reaching its highest level since July after climbing more than 7% over two days. The market is pricing in potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, amid a significant US military buildup in the Middle East.

The US Dollar Index rose to its highest level in over a week, near 97.80, after FOMC minutes revealed that officials are not rushing to cut rates, with several policymakers noting potential hikes if inflation remains elevated. The hawkish tone pressured EUR/USD down 0.11% to $1.18 and drove gains against most major currencies.

Gold prices remained above $5,000 per troy ounce, supported by escalating US-Iran tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, despite a stronger dollar. The precious metal gained over 2% in the previous session as investors sought safety amid potential military action in the Middle East and failed peace talks between the US and Iran and Russia and Ukraine.

Asian markets opened lower today, following Wall Street's decline, as sentiment was dampened by the military buildup in the Middle East and concerns over oil supply disruptions.

The Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak yesterday, plunging 1.4% to close at 25,454, its lowest close since the Budget session (February 03, 2026).

Below 25372, Nifty could extend its fall towards its 200-day EMA placed at 25233. On the higher side, the 25550-25600 band could act as short-term resistance.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Inch Up Amid AI Cost Concerns

U.S. stocks edged higher Tuesday after a sluggish open, lifted by a rebound in technology shares and support from financials.

Amazon shares swung violently after shedding roughly $450 billion in market value over nine consecutive sessions. Investors are scrutinising the company's plan to spend $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026—a nearly 60% increase that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations.

US Futures are pointing lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures declining amid concerns about AI's disruption across industries and the burden of heavy capital spending.

Gold slipped to $4,919 per ounce yesterday as metals markets stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. data releases: industrial production and the Fed's January meeting minutes today, PCE inflation on Friday. December personal income and spending figures will also draw attention, as they carry the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Crude oil fell to $62.25 per barrel, while Brent declined to $68.13, ahead of U.S.-Iran ministerial negotiations.

The New Zealand dollar weakened after the central bank signalled that monetary policy must remain accommodative to sustain the economic recovery.

Most Asian markets are closed due to lunar holidays, while Japanese equities are trading higher today despite lingering AI-driven anxiety in global markets.

Despite a weak start yesterday on a weekly expiry day, the index staged an intraday turnaround, surging over 150 points from its morning lows. The rebound was broad-based, with nearly all sectoral indices finishing in the green.

Nifty managed to register follow-up gains in yesterday's trade. Next resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000, while levels of 25570 and 25372 could offer support in the near term.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

RBI Circular on Capital Market Exposures to Impact Liquidity in Derivative Markets

The US stock market's recent moves can be characterised by a shift from cautious optimism to a sharp mid-week sell-off, which was ultimately stabilised by a cooling inflation report. Last week began with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 hovering around key psychological levels (50,000 and 7,000, respectively). However, sentiment soured from Thursday, February 12, as the market aggressively "punished" the software sector.

The Indian market was a tale of two halves over the last fortnight - an initial rally driven by a historic trade agreement, followed by a sharp correction triggered by sticky inflation and global tech jitters. The US-India landmark deal initially boosted export-oriented sectors such as textiles and auto components.

The Nifty IT index has declined by more than 14% in 2026, and the sector has shed over ₹1.56 lakh crore in market value in recent weeks.

The RBI's new circular tightens banks' capital market exposures, banning intraday margin funding to brokers (limited to secured settlement gaps) and requiring 100% cash backing for bank guarantees in proprietary trading.

The circular will raise costs for brokers and prop desks, curbing leverage and liquidity in derivatives, where prop trading drives 40% of F&O turnover.

The Nifty index fell on Friday, plunging 336 points, or 1.3%, to close at 25,471. Nifty violated its crucial support levels of the 20 and 50-day EMAs. The next support lies at the lower band of the gap formed on February 3, 2026 (25,108), though the 200-day EMA at 25,215 may provide interim support.

Market breadth deteriorated sharply, underscoring ongoing profit-booking in midcaps and smallcaps.

Indian markets are poised to open lower on cautious local cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Asian Stocks Hit Record Highs, Nifty Primed for All-Time High Rally Above Key 26,000 Resistance

Asian stocks rose to a record high on Thursday, while the dollar firmed a touch against most currencies, except the yen, after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dented near-term rate-cut expectations, setting the stage for the inflation report on Friday.

The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, double expectations, while unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. The robust labour data pushed Treasury yields higher and prompted traders to pare back their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026.

Financial services stocks JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Charles Schwab fell by more than 2% amid concerns about AI-driven disruption in wealth management. Software companies Salesforce and Intuit also declined more than 4% as AI-powered tools threaten traditional business models.

Shopify shares surged after beating Q4 revenue estimates and announcing a $2 billion share repurchase program. The e-commerce platform also provided solid first-quarter revenue growth guidance, boosting investor confidence.

Mattel shares cratered after Q4 earnings and revenue missed estimates, with the toy maker guiding for declining adjusted EPS in 2026 despite expected sales growth. The stock hit its lowest level since last April on the disappointing forecast.

Gold futures surged 1.3% to over $5,090 per ounce while silver jumped more than 5% to $84.65 yesterday. The rally was fueled by a softer US dollar and disappointing economic data, including flat December retail sales.

Oil prices edged up amid concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The rupee slid 12 paise to 90.70/$ amid rising crude and precious metal prices, fueling importer demand for dollars.

The Nifty extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session, eking out a modest 18-point gain to finish at 25,953.

Nifty continues to hold its uptrend with its level above all key moving averages. Immediate resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000; above this, the index could extend the rally towards a fresh all-time high of 26373. On the downside, the 25700-25780 band could provide strong support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued on softer global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Major US stock indexes were mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower, while the Dow edged up to its third record close in a row, as investors digested disappointing retail sales figures and waited for a key labour market report.

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year.

Treasury yields fell after U.S. data suggested the economy may be softening.

The yen was up again in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive weekend election victory.

Lyft forecast first-quarter adjusted core profit below expectations on Tuesday, hit by severe U.S. winter weather, seasonal cost pressures, and posted a surprise operating loss for 2025, sending its shares down 16% in after-hours trading.

Robinhood Markets fell 6.2% in late trading after reporting fourth-quarter revenue growth that trailed Wall Street estimates. The disappointing results overshadowed other metrics as investors reassessed growth expectations for the online brokerage platform.

Shares of LPL Financial fell 8.3%, Charles Schwab declined 7.4%, and Morgan Stanley dropped 2.5% after tech platform Altruist introduced a new AI-powered tax planning tool.

Back home, Nifty rose for the third straight session, fueled by robust global cues, gaining 67 points to close at 25,935. Despite the weekly expiry yesterday, the index remained largely range-bound, oscillating within a tight 100-point consolidation zone.

Nifty continues to hold its uptrend with its level above all key moving averages. Short-term resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000, above which the index could extend the rally towards a fresh all-time high above 26373. On the downside, the 25600-25670 band could provide strong support for the index.

Our markets are gradually inching higher as foreign investors cover their short in derivatives and become selective buyers in the cash markets.

Indian markets are poised to open higher today on conducive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow at New All-Time High; Broad-Based Rally Lifts Indian Markets

World stocks rallied on Monday, propelled by optimism over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's thumping election win and a tech rebound, while the dollar slumped amid reports that China has advised financial institutions to curb exposure to U.S. bonds.

U.S. stocks moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day on Monday, extending the strong upward move seen in last Friday's session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high of 50135, rising modestly as markets recovered from last week's volatility. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.9%, with technology stocks powering the rally.

Oracle jumped 9.6% after an upgrade, while AppLovin soared over 13% following a retraction of critical allegations. The Information Technology sector gained 1.4%, leading the S&P 500 higher as investors returned to beaten-down software names.

Investors await delayed January employment data on Wednesday and CPI inflation figures on Friday. The data releases will provide crucial guidance on Federal Reserve interest rate policy for the remainder of 2026. The monthly job report is expected to show employment climbed by 70,000 jobs in January after rising by 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4 per cent.

Oil prices eased slightly on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions, following U.S. guidance on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz that kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Nifty kicked off the week strongly, surging 173 points to close at 25867. It staged a 100-point recovery from the day's low after early profit booking, signalling clear bull control as it ended near the session high.

Short-term resistance looms near 26000; a break above could propel it toward fresh all-time highs beyond 26373. On the downside, the 25450–25500 zone remains a strong support.

Indian markets are positioned to open higher on conducive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

AI Anxiety Hits Wall Street

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried that AI could create more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.4% as software stocks extended losses, Anthropic's launch of workplace productivity tools intensified worries, with the sector shedding approximately $300 billion in market value.

Walmart became the first retailer ever to hit $1 trillion in market valuation on Tuesday, riding on a year-long rally that has seen its shares rise nearly 26%, placing it among the ranks of Big Tech heavyweights such as Nvidia and Alphabet.

Crude oil rose 1.25% to $64.00 per barrel after initially falling on reports of potential US-Iran nuclear negotiations resuming in Turkey. The US shot down an Iranian drone and remains cautious about armed boats, while the India-US trade deal could redirect Russian oil flows and tighten supply elsewhere.

The Nifty opened with its largest single-day absolute gain of over 1,200 points yesterday, fueled by the long-awaited US tariff cuts on Indian imports.

The index settled up 639 points at 25,727, marking its highest one-day percentage gain since May 12, 2025. Bank Nifty touched a fresh all-time high of 61,764 and closed with a robust 2.4% advance.

The Indian Rupee delivered its biggest single-day gain since December 18, 2018, closing at 90.27 vs. USD—its highest in three weeks—driven by "risk-on" sentiment and exporter dollar unwinding post-trade deal news.

Nifty's 1770 point recovery from the recent swing low of 24,571 has reclaimed levels above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a bullish trend reversal across timeframes. Nifty’s Key support lies in the 25,500–25,650 band, with resistance at 25,863 and 26,373.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

We Have A Deal!

Markets are likely to surge nearly 3% higher on open

India and the United States have agreed to a trade agreement under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be slashed to 18% from 25%, and the additional 25% duty on purchases of Russian crude oil will be eliminated. The trade deal will be " effective immediately", President Donald Trump said, following a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi late Monday, offering immediate tariff relief for India.

Lower Than Most Regional Peers

At 18%, India's tariff rate is now lower than that of several major export-oriented Asian economies. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam face tariffs of 20%, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Pakistan face tariffs of 19%. Cambodia also faces a higher tariff burden at 19%.

The deal includes the rollback of US tariffs on India from 50% to just 18%, a commitment from India to increase US imports by $500 billion, and a reduction in dependence on Russian oil.

The trade deal is likely to stabilise the rupee and ease pressure on domestic interest rates.

Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods are the clear winners, as all faced growth headwinds due to higher tariffs.

India will have to move away from Russian crude oil in favour of imports from the US and Venezuela, following the removal of Russian oil-related penalties

Indian equity markets are expected to surge 3% on open as the deal completely eliminates key policy uncertainties. The positive sentiment could trigger immediate foreign capital inflows, potentially turning India's Balance of Payments (BoP) position.

This positive surprise will force many participants, including FPIs who are heavily short in the market, to cover their positions, which should lead to a sharp surge across indices and derivative stocks in today's session.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

U.S.-Iran Tensions Drive Oil Above $70, Nifty Breaks Key Resistance Levels

Volatility surged through world markets on Thursday as fears over a U.S. strike on Iran and the threat of another U.S. government shutdown roiled oil and metals, while AI bubble concerns hammered tech stocks and pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 into negative territory.

Oil prices climbed sharply, driven by renewed geopolitical risk concerns centred on U.S.-Iran tensions. Brent crude broke above $70 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since July, while WTI crude reached its highest level since September. The rally was triggered by President Trump's escalating threats of military action against Iran and deployment of naval forces to the region, combined with an unexpected 2.3 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories.

US stocks mounted a substantial recovery attempt during Thursday's trading session. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day, with the Dow reaching positive territory.

The early sell-off on Wall Street stemmed from a steep drop in Microsoft shares, which plummeted 10.0 per cent to its lowest closing level in nine months.

Microsoft came under pressure after reporting slowing cloud growth in its fiscal second quarter and providing disappointing third-quarter operating margin guidance.

U.S. software stocks declined on Thursday after SAP's underwhelming cloud outlook and a post-earnings slide in ServiceNow deepened concerns that traditional providers are being outpaced by artificial-intelligence players. ServiceNow was down 9%, and SAP fell sharply after weak cloud backlog results. Investors fear AI could disrupt traditional software business models, with markets now demanding clear monetisation strategies rather than increased spending on AI infrastructure alone.

Meta spiked 10.4 per cent on the day after the Facebook parent reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and forecast first-quarter revenues above analyst estimates.

Asian Stocks remained volatile in early trading on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed a bipartisan deal to avert a fresh government shutdown.

The Nifty extended its winning streak to a third session, adding 76 points to settle at 25,418 in a highly volatile session.

Market sentiments were buoyed by the Economic Survey presented in parliament by the Union Finance Minister, which projected FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4% amid macroeconomic resilience, low inflation, and structural reforms.

Nifty has surpassed crucial resistances at the 10 DEMA (25396) and the swing high (25435). Nifty seems to have reversed the short-term bearish trend and could head higher towards the next resistance levels of its 20 and 50-DEMAs, at 25568 and 25712, respectively. Support for the index shifted higher to 25150.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Fed Holds Rates Steady - Attention Turns to Union Budget

Major U.S. stock indexes closed largely flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.

After initial gains, the major indexes pulled back and traded near unchanged levels for most of the session, eventually ending narrowly mixed.

The S&P 500 briefly surpassed 7,000 for the first time during morning trading. The Nasdaq gained 0.91%, driven by semiconductor strength following ASML's record orders, Texas Instruments' strong guidance, and optimism around sustained AI infrastructure spending.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% following three consecutive quarter-point cuts. Chair Jerome Powell described the economy as solid, with diminished risks to both inflation and employment, signalling that the central bank will likely remain on hold, with inflation still somewhat elevated.

The U.S. Dollar Index recovered to 96.18 on January 29 after hitting four-year lows near 95.50, following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reaffirmation of a strong dollar policy. The dollar has weakened 10.78% over the past year amid tariff concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and President Trump's comments accepting currency weakness.

The euro reached $1.20 for the first time since 2021, marking a 13% gain in 2025, supported by European fiscal stimulus, particularly from Germany, and by reduced reliance on the dollar.

WTI crude oil rose 0.87% to $63.76, reaching four-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions after President Trump warned Iran to negotiate, with additional support from a weaker dollar and winter weather.

Gold reached an all-time high above $5,500 per ounce with a record single-day gain of $221.70, while silver surged to $116.48, up 277% year-over-year, driven by dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and safe-haven demand.

Nifty extended gains for the second consecutive session, rising 167 points (0.66%) to close at 25,342.

The short-term trend has turned positive, as Nifty has crossed its 5-day EMA at 25270. To maintain this bullish bias, the index must hold the recent swing low of 24,932. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,435, followed by positional 50DEMA resistance at 25,725.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US FOMC announcement in Focus, Indian Markets Boosted by EU Trade Deal

World stocks and the S&P 500 reached new highs Tuesday, driven by strong U.S. earnings, while anxiety over President Trump's policies pushed gold to record levels and the dollar to a four-year low.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to close at a record near 6,994, and the Nasdaq gained 1.0% as investors focused on big-tech earnings. Apple climbed 3%, Meta rose 2.1%, and Microsoft gained 0.9% ahead of results, while the Dow fell 0.5%, dragged down by UnitedHealth's 18% plunge.

UnitedHealth shares crashed after the Trump administration proposed a minor increase in Medicare Advantage payment rates for 2027, far below expectations. The insurer also issued weak 2026 revenue guidance, pulling down Humana (-17%) and CVS Health (-12%).

The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since February 2022, reaching 96.20 as investors grew wary of unpredictable Washington policymaking. Trump's comments that the dollar is "doing great" and can fluctuate "like a yo-yo" failed to halt the decline, which accelerated after he expressed no concern about the weakness.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates between 3.5% and 3.75% when it announces its decision today. Markets show a 95.6% probability of unchanged rates. The announcement comes ahead of the expiration of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term in May.

Gold hit an all-time high above $5,110 per ounce, climbing over 1% to around $5,080 Tuesday on safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Trump announced tariffs on South Korean goods would rise from 15% to 25%, affecting cars, pharmaceuticals, and other products, citing Seoul's failure to enact a July trade deal. The move intensified trade tensions as markets await the Fed's decision.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunged 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, the lowest since 2014. The Expectations Index fell to 65.1, well below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting consumer concerns about inflation, tariffs, and labour markets despite strong GDP growth.

Nifty staged a dramatic intraday reversal, gaining 126 points to close at 25,175 after plunging to test the key swing low support level.

Nifty formed a double bottom pattern near 25,900 support while reclaiming both 200DMA and 200EMA, indicating early signs of a potential bullish reversal. However, confirmation requires a decisive break above the prior swing high resistance at 25,435, with 24,900 acting as immediate support.

Indian equity markets are poised to open on a positive note, buoyed by robust sentiment surrounding the India-EU trade agreement.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump's Tariff Retreat Sparks Wall-Street Rally.

US stocks rallied for a second consecutive day on Thursday after President Trump backed away from threats of tariffs on Europe, easing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6,875.62, the Dow gained 1.21% to 49,077.23, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.18% to 23,224.82.

The market rebound accelerated after Trump announced a framework deal with NATO on Greenland and the Arctic region. Trump ruled out the use of military force to acquire Greenland during a Wednesday speech, signalling a softer diplomatic approach to the territory.

Following his preliminary agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump withdrew threats to impose sanctions on European countries that had opposed his plans for Greenland. The détente marked a sharp reversal from his earlier confrontational stance toward European allies.

Intel plunged over 10% in after-hours trading following disappointing forward guidance, erasing gains from Wednesday's nearly 12% rally. The chipmaker had surged to four-year highs after Nvidia's $5 billion investment and a US government stake, but weak outlook tempered enthusiasm despite optimism around new server chips and foundry expansion.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.41% to 98.37, marking its largest one-day decline in a month, despite upward GDP revisions to 4.4% from 4.3% and jobless claims beating expectations at 200K versus 212K forecast. Dovish Fed expectations and concerns over potential political interference in central bank independence weighed on the greenback.

Natural gas futures surged over 12% to $5.48 per MMBtu, nearing December 2022 levels, as extreme cold weather forecasts through early February threaten to drive heating demand to near-record levels. The commodity is tracking toward a weekly gain of more than 70%, the largest since 1990.

Nifty halted its three-session slide, rebounding 132 points to close at 25,289 after a volatile session that tested key technical levels. The index gapped up 187 points at open and held firm for the first 45 minutes before reversing post-10 AM, plunging 267 points to 25,168, finding support precisely at the 200DEMA (25,164) for a sharp 164 point rebound in the final hour.

The Indian rupee broke its losing streak, appreciating 6 paise against the greenback to close at 91.63 yesterday. The currency stabilised as global risk appetite improved following US President Trump’s withdrawal of tariff threats against Europe.

Short-term resistance remains entrenched at 25450-25500, while support has shifted higher to 25,150 near the 200DEMA confluence.

The Indian markets will be closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, for Republic Day.

Indian benchmark indices are poised to open marginally lower today, testing resilience as investors monitor whether key indices can find support at near-term levels.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Surges on Trump's Dovish Davos Turn

Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 posting its largest one-day gain in two months after President Trump announced a framework agreement on Greenland and cancelled planned tariffs for February 1st on European nations.

Major indices rallied sharply: the Dow jumped 588 points (1.2%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 1.2%, reversing Tuesday's worst selloff since October. The rebound followed Trump's Davos remarks, ruling out military force against Greenland and scrapping threatened European tariffs.

Markets removed the tail risk of U.S.-NATO confrontation. The dollar strengthened while Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note declining to 4.25%.

The European Union's legislative body halted work on the formal approval and implementation of the trade deal it reached last summer with President Donald Trump.

Gold retreated from its record high of $4,887 per ounce to around $4,840 as geopolitical tensions eased, though the precious metal remains up 8.59% month over month and 75.18% year over year. Silver dropped 1.6% as risk appetite returned to equities.

Netflix plunged in after-hours trading despite beating Q4 revenue and earnings expectations. Investors focused on slowing subscriber growth and weak forward guidance, overlooking the company's 325 million subscriber milestone. Netflix also announced it would pause buybacks to finance its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

The Indian Rupee fell 72 paise to a record low of 91.69 against the US Dollar yesterday—its steepest single-day decline in two months.

The currency faces pressure from aggressive foreign capital outflows and delays in a U.S. trade deal, while heightened geopolitical uncertainty continues to accelerate depreciation despite central bank interventions.

Nifty declined for a third consecutive session, dropping 75 points to close at 25,157. The index held above its 200-day SMA (25,124), with yesterday's low of 24,919 now serving as support. The 25,470-25,500 band will continue to act as strong resistance.

Indian equity markets are poised to open on a positive note, buoyed by robust global sentiment and growing optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade agreement.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall-Street selloff - Biggest one-day drop in three months

All ​the three major Wall Street indexes ended Tuesday with their biggest one-day drops in three months, in a broad selloff triggered by concerns that fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump against Europe could signal renewed market volatility.

U.S. stocks tumbled Tuesday as President Trump threatened tariffs on nations opposing Greenland's acquisition.

The Dow dropped 871 points or 1.8%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.4% and the S&P 500 declined 2.1%. All Magnificent Seven tech stocks lost at least 1.1%.

The dollar weakened and Treasury yields climbed to August highs.

Precious metals reached historic levels as safe-haven demand intensified amid trade tensions.

Gold exceeded $4,700 per ounce for the first time, gaining 2.9%, while silver surpassed $95 per ounce. Investors fled risk assets following Trump's escalating tariff rhetoric and renewed European trade conflict concerns, boosting safe haven flows.

The U.S. Dollar Index tumbled to 98.44, down nearly 1%, marking its largest decline since Trump's April Liberation Day tariff announcement. The dollar's weakness against major currencies reflected growing investor concerns about prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and potential retaliation from European allies.

Back home, the Nifty crashed 353 points (1.38%) to close at 25,232.50, while the BSE Sensex tumbled 1,066 points (1.28%) to 82,180.47, marking their lowest levels since mid-October 2025.

This represents the steepest single-day decline in last 9 months, as US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats over Greenland rattled global markets and triggered widespread selling pressure.

The index decisively breached the crucial swing low at 25,473 during the session and is now placed close to the 200-day EMA (25,160) and SMA (25,113), major technical supports.

A break below these 200 day average levels could trigger further selling toward the 24,800-24,900 support zone, while the 25,470-25,500 will interchange its role as resistance on any pullback attempts.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US Futures Fall on Trump's New Tariff Threat Over Greenland

U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats against European allies amid rising tensions over Greenland have revived talk of the 'Sell America' trade that emerged following his sweeping Liberation Day levies last April.

The dollar retreated to its lowest level in a week during early trading on Tuesday after White House threats toward the European Union over Greenland's future triggered a broad selloff across U.S. stocks and government bonds.

US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, a federal holiday honouring the civil rights leader.

US Stock futures declined sharply after President Trump threatened 10% tariffs on eight NATO allies, beginning on February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1, over his demands regarding Greenland.

Investors are preparing for quarterly results from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel this week as corporate guidance takes on heightened importance amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an eighth consecutive month on Tuesday, matching market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) held steady at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%.

Oil prices stayed volatile as economic growth data from China lifted demand optimism, even as markets tracked President Trump's tariff threats against European nations amid his interest in acquiring Greenland.

Iran's crackdown on protests has quelled civil unrest, lowering the risk of attacks that could disrupt supplies from the major Middle Eastern producer. With Iran accounting for a significant share of global output, recent indications of no immediate U.S. military intervention have helped reduce supply risks across the Persian Gulf region.

Gold resumed its advance and hit a new record high on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened against most major peers following President Trump's latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland.

Asian markets traded mixed on Tuesday morning amid tensions between the U.S. and the EU and rising borrowing-cost concerns, as yields on Japan's 40-year government bonds reached 4% for the first time.

The Nifty resumed its downtrend yesterday, plunging 108 points to close at 25,585, its lowest level in this ongoing correction. The sharp decline was primarily fuelled by disappointing quarterly results from blue-chip heavyweights.

Nifty has now retreated nearly 3% from its all-time high of 26,373. A decisive breach below the 25,473 mark would violate the current consolidation range, potentially accelerating the slide toward the next major support at 25,318. Meanwhile, immediate resistance has now shifted lower to 25,865.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Volatility Persists Amid Global Headwinds and Weak Quarterly Results

Global investor sentiment sustained multiple blows from policy developments, including US proposals to cap credit card interest rates, new tariffs targeting nations trading with Iran, and an increasingly aggressive stance toward Greenland.

These headlines heightened uncertainty around consumer spending and global trade flows, overshadowing pockets of corporate resilience.

Back home, Disappointing earnings from major blue-chip companies are expected to weigh on sentiment at the opening bell, with little in the results to inspire investor confidence.

This mood extended to the broader market, where weakness was more evident; a majority of Nifty 500 stocks stayed in the red for mid-January.

While foreign investors maintained their bearish stance, Domestic Institutional Investors countered with robust buying, providing a crucial support pillar amid the uncertainty.

The Indian Rupee extended its decline for a third straight day on Friday, weakening by 57 paise to close at 90.86, its lowest level in a month. Rupee’s underperformance relative to its Asian peers stems from a "perfect storm" of high dollar demand and a retreating tide of foreign capital.

Nifty remains in a consolidation zone between 25,473 and 25,900. A decisive breakout on either side will dictate the next directional move.

Key monitors ahead include Q3 earnings, US Fed signals, and rupee stability.

Indian markets are set to open lower, weighed down by disappointing quarterly results from blue-chip heavyweights.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow falls as JPMorgan tumbles on earnings miss

The Dow retreated from Monday's record close as JPMorgan Chase plunged 4.2% after reporting a 7% decline in fourth-quarter profit, despite beating adjusted earnings estimates. Investment banking fees missed expectations, pressuring the broader financial sector.

Visa fell 4.5%, and Mastercard dropped 3.8% amid concerns over President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the proposal would severely damage both industry profits and consumer welfare.

U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, with financials leading declines. December inflation data met expectations, leaving Federal Reserve rate cut projections for 2026 unchanged.

Trump has also proposed barring defence contractors from paying dividends or engaging in buybacks and blocking institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes.

Oil prices jumped 2.8% on escalating Iran tensions, fuelled by nationwide anti-government protests and Trump's public support for demonstrators.

A brewing feud between the Federal Reserve and President Donald Trump also remained in focus.

The rupee weakened by 4 paise against the dollar amid regional currency pressures, rising crude oil and metal prices, and sustained FII outflows.

After a brief pullback session, Nifty resumed its downward trajectory. A late recovery of over 150 points in the final hour capped the downside, falling 57 points to close at 25,732.

For bullish reversal confirmation, Nifty needs to cross its 50 DEMA placed near 25,900. On the downside, the recent swing low of 25,473 is likely to offer short-term support.

Indian stock exchanges NSE and BSE will remain closed on Thursday, January 15, 2026, for the Maharashtra Municipal Corporation elections.

Indian markets are poised to open near yesterday's close and attempt a recovery from lower levels.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P & Dow Hit New Records, US Trade Deal Hope Sparks 300-Point Nifty Rally

The S&P 500 and Dow registered record closing highs on Monday as technology stocks and Walmart gained, with investors largely dismissing concerns about the Justice Department's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Stocks opened lower on the Powell news. The Justice Department's threat of indictment, ostensibly focused on Powell's congressional testimony regarding a building renovation project, heightened concerns about the Fed's independence.

Powell called the move a "pretext" to gain influence over interest rates that President Donald Trump has pressed to cut sharply since taking office in January 2025.

Credit card company stocks fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. Capital One Financial fell 8%, while Citigroup and American Express dropped 4%. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each declined approximately 2%.

The dollar held its losses on Tuesday after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, threatening the central bank's independence and confidence in U.S. assets.

Japan's Nikkei average surged to a record high on Tuesday as markets caught up with Wall Street's recent two-day rally following a public holiday in Japan earlier this week.

Investors also bought Japanese equities on expectations of increased fiscal spending amid speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election to bolster her coalition government's parliamentary majority.

Gold jumped 2.5% to an all-time high on Monday, while silver futures climbed 7.3% to a record level. The moves followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's disclosure that he received Justice Department subpoenas regarding testimony on headquarters renovations, raising concerns about central bank independence.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as heightened concerns about Iran and potential supply disruptions outweighed prospects of increased crude supply from Venezuela.

TCS and HCL Tech reported mixed quarterly results yesterday, with TCS keeping revenue and margin gains on a steady path while HCL Tech faced profitability pressures despite stronger topline growth.

The Nifty 50 broke its five-day losing streak, climbing 106 points to close at 25,790. The reversal came swiftly after 12:00 PM, when optimistic remarks from U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor sparked a dramatic rally. His confirmation that India and the USA are actively finalising a trade deal triggered a sharp recovery of more than 300 points from the day's lows.

A sustained move above 25,800 could extend the rally toward the next resistance levels at the 50-day and 20-day DEMAs, positioned near 25,900 and 26,000, respectively. On the downside, the recent low of 25,473 may provide short-term support.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Hits All-Time Highs as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Optimism, Indian Markets Tumble on Trump Tariff Threat.

US stocks advanced in the first full trading week of 2026, with investors largely ignoring geopolitical tensions and pushing major indexes to all-time highs.

Rotation from mega-caps to cyclicals broadened market participation, while focus on President Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's rate path supported industrials and small caps.

The S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.9%.

The weaker-than-expected jobs report fuelled optimism about potential rate cuts, lifting Wall Street broadly.

December nonfarm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, below the expected 60,000-70,000 and down from November's revised 56,000.

Unemployment fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, signalling a low-hiring, low-firing environment.

Housing stocks surged after President Trump announced $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases to lower rates.

Indian stock markets suffered their worst weekly loss in over three months, driven by profit-booking and global tariff concerns.

President Trump's threat of 500% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil rattled emerging markets, triggering risk-off sentiment and a rotation out of cyclicals.

With no domestic catalysts, investors booked profits after recent highs.

The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 2.55%, and the Nifty 50 fell 2.45% to 25,683, while the Sensex shed over 2,100 points.

A decisive break below the 100-day EMA at 25,619 could accelerate selling toward the next major support at 25,318 (November 2025 swing low).

Any recovery attempts will likely face stiff resistance in the 25,950- 26,000 zone.

Investors now await upcoming IT sector earnings and US inflation data for the next directional triggers.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow, S&P 500 Give Back Ground, But Nasdaq Moves Modestly Higher

US Markets remain cautiously positioned amid geopolitical developments, upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions, and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

American stocks fluctuated throughout the trading day on Wednesday before ending the relatively lacklustre session mixed.

Energy stocks declined sharply, with Exxon Mobil falling 3% and Chevron dropping 4%, after oil prices retreated following Trump's announcement that Venezuela would provide up to 50 million barrels to the US at market prices.

Housing stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the session, dragging the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index down by 2.6 per cent.

Semiconductor stocks steadied after explosive gains yesterday, with SanDisk surging nearly 28% after AI-optimised storage breakthroughs.

Precious metals faced profit-taking ahead of commodity index rebalancing.

ADP's December employment data showed 41,000 jobs added, slightly missing expectations. Economists had expected private-sector employment to increase by 47,000 jobs, compared with the 32,000 job loss originally reported for the previous month.

Asian equity markets showed mixed performance, with moderate declines in major indices amid cautious sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1%.

Nifty extended its losing streak to a third straight session yesterday, slipping 37 points to settle at 26,140, but managing to close off the day’s low.

Despite the short-term softness, the broader positional trend remains bullish, supported by a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily charts.

On the upside, the recent swing high at 26,373 is likely to act as an immediate resistance level, while 26,000 is expected to provide strong near-term support.

Indian markets are poised to open modestly lower on the back of weak Asian cues.

Dow Reaches Record as Energy Stocks Surge Following U.S. Strike on Venezuela

Wall Street climbed on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting an all-time high driven by surging energy shares after a U.S. military operation captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Investors anticipate the move will grant U.S. companies access to the world's largest oil reserves. The Trump administration plans to meet with oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan production.

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, but output has collapsed in recent decades due to mismanagement, limited foreign investment following the nationalisation of the industry, and international sanctions.

Energy stocks led Monday's gains, with Chevron—a leading private oil operator in Venezuela — surging 5.1%. Financial stocks also posted strong advances, helping push the Dow to its record close.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders weighed the prospect of increased Venezuelan crude output, adding to expectations of ample global supply amid weak demand.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee weakened for the fourth consecutive session, depreciating by 8 paise to 90.28 against the US dollar. The currency has now declined in nine of the past ten trading sessions, weighed down by uncertainty over potential trade negotiations between Washington and New Delhi.

Asian equities are trading at fresh record highs today, with MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific gauge extending its rally, led by Japanese and Hong Kong benchmarks near new peaks.

Nifty ended its three-day winning streak on Monday, slipping 89 points to close at 26,239.

Despite profit-booking at higher levels, the Nifty held comfortably above its 5-day EMA, currently placed at 26188, signalling that the short-term bullish undertone remains intact.

As long as the index remains above the crucial support zone of 26,100, the near-term trend is expected to stay positive. On the upside, a high of 26,373 is likely to act as an immediate resistance. A decisive move above this level could rekindle buying momentum, paving the way for a potential rally towards 26,500.

Foreign investors have continued to cover their short positions in the derivatives markets.

Indian markets are positioned to open higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Indian Markets look set to surge to record levels in the new year's first full trading week.

US stock markets navigated a holiday-shortened last week marked by early volatility and net weekly losses despite intraday recoveries.

Indian stock markets demonstrated resilience throughout the holiday-thinned week, closing higher on low volumes driven by year-end positioning.

Optimism was fuelled by robust GDP growth (8.2%), strong automotive sales, encouraging updates in the banking sector, anticipation of Budget 2026, and expectations of favourable US trade deal.

Asian equities reached record highs as investors extended their positioning in technology stocks. Oil prices fluctuated while precious metals gained.

The Trump administration launched what it termed a "large-scale strike against Venezuela," capturing President Maduro to face criminal charges. Trump announced the US will administer Venezuela until a "safe, proper, and judicious transition" can occur. As we expected in our Annual market strategy, crude oil is likely to remain subdued through the year on a gradually rising supply.

MSCI's Asian stock index surged 0.7% at the open after a closely watched technology gauge reached an all-time high. US equity-index futures also rose as Asian trading commenced following the Venezuelan president's ouster, creating a fresh geopolitical flashpoint.

Nifty has decisively breached previous swing-high resistance levels at 26,236 and 26,325, confirming a decisive breakout from its prior consolidation range. With the index now in uncharted territory, near-term upside targets extend toward 26,500 and beyond. Immediate support has shifted higher to approximately 26,100, likely providing a near-term floor during pullbacks.

As expected, FPIs have begun covering their short positions in index futures.

Indian markets are positioned to open higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Tensions, Dollar Begins 2026 on Weak Footing

Most of the global stock markets remained closed yesterday in observance of New Year's Day.

The UK's FTSE 100 index paused near record levels in the final stretch of 2025 on Thursday, wrapping up its strongest annual gain in 16 years in a shortened trading session.

The U.S. dollar made a feeble start to 2026 on Friday after struggling against most currencies last year, while the yen steadied near 10-month lows as traders awaited economic data this month to gauge the path of interest rates.

A narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and other economies has cast a shadow over the foreign exchange market, resulting in most major currencies appreciating sharply against the dollar in 2025, with the yen an exception.

Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports.

Brent crude futures climbed 14 cents on Friday to $60.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.56 a barrel, up 14 cents.

South Korea's factory activity expanded in December, after two months of contraction, on a rebound in export demand, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, with manufacturers' optimism surging to a 3.5-year high.

Nifty extended its winning streak for the second straight session yesterday, adding 16 points to close at 26,146. The index opened 44 points higher but remained range-bound through most of the session, consolidating within a narrow band.

A sustained move above 26,234 could signal a breakout from the current consolidation phase and open the door for a retest of all-time highs and potentially higher levels. On the downside, the 25,900 zone is expected to act as immediate short-term support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

The new year promises new highs for Indian markets.

Happy New Year! We hope 2026 brings you prosperity, good health, and success in all your endeavours. Thank you for including this commentary in your daily routine.

Wall Street's major indexes closed lower in the final trading session of 2025, yet still delivered substantial annual gains following a turbulent year shaped by President Donald Trump's tariff uncertainties and enthusiasm surrounding AI-focused stocks.

The Dow posted its eighth consecutive monthly gain, the longest such streak since 2017-2018.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will remain closed today in observance of New Year's Day.

For the full year, the S&P 500 climbed 16 per cent while the Nasdaq Composite surged 20 per cent, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns for both indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 13 per cent, while India's Nifty eked out 10.5 per cent gains.

Major Asian equity markets closed on Wednesday on a mixed note amid shortened sessions, holidays, and light trading volumes. Most regional markets remain positioned to finish the year with solid gains, buoyed by the AI-driven rally.

Oil prices declined on Wednesday, recording an annual loss of nearly 20 per cent as expectations of oversupply mounted in a year marked by geopolitical conflicts, elevated tariffs, increased OPEC+ output, and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

Nifty staged a strong recovery on the first day of the January derivative series, snapping a four-day losing streak with a sharp 190-point rebound to close at 26,129.

A sustained move above the previous swing high resistance at 26,234 would confirm a breakout, paving the way for a move to fresh all-time highs above 26,325 and beyond.

On the downside, 25,900 now serves as immediate support, with any dips toward this level likely to attract buying interest from positional bulls.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in today's trade

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US Markets Drift Lower in Choppy Session; Fed Minutes Signal Caution

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed marginally lower Tuesday amid choppy trading, as gains in communication services stocks were offset by weakness in technology and financials, with the latter also dragging down the Dow.

After the previous session's decline, stocks drifted without clear direction throughout Tuesday's trading day, with major averages oscillating around the unchanged line.

Communication services shares led the S&P 500's gainers, driven by Meta Platforms' 1.1% advance. The technology giant announced its acquisition of Chinese-founded artificial intelligence start-up Manus, accelerating its integration of advanced AI capabilities across platforms including Facebook and Instagram.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting revealed a deeply nuanced debate preceded the decision to cut interest rates, underscoring the central bank's careful assessment of economic risks. Even some policymakers who voted for the rate reduction acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," the minutes released Tuesday showed. With the Fed's next meeting scheduled for January 27-28, investors currently expect the central bank to hold rates steady.

Government data released Tuesday showed U.S. home prices rose in October at their slowest annual pace in over 13 years—a potential sign of improving affordability in the beleaguered housing market.

Indian rupee snapped its five-day losing streak, appreciating 18 paise to close at 89.79 against the dollar. The recovery came after the RBI reference rate, aided by year-end settlements and rebalancing flows. Gains were further supported by thin liquidity conditions and steady dollar supply from banks.

Despite the minor decline yesterday, Nifty’s close above the 50-DEMA at 25,837 keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. Metals, PSU Banks, and Auto led the gainers.

The highly volatile December series concluded yesterday with modest gains. In the stock futures segment, the January series opens with record-high open interest of 1,618 crore shares, surpassing the 1,576 crore shares recorded at the start of November 2025.

For Bank Nifty, the January series begins with sharply lower open interest of 12.47 lakh shares—the lowest level since January 2021—indicating substantial short covering.

At the start of the January series, FIIs' long-to-short ratio in index futures stands at 0.10, down from 0.18 in the previous series. This means 91% of total FII positions in index futures remain on the short side. Such a low ratio signals oversold positioning and raises the possibility of near-term short covering, which would bode well for the markets.

On the upside, Nifty needs to clear the 26,100 – 26,150 resistance zone to regain its bullish momentum and open the path for higher levels.

Indian markets are expected to open on a subdued note amid the absence of compelling global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Closes Lower as Tech Retreats Ahead of Fed Minutes

US major indexes closed lower on Monday, beginning the year's final week on a subdued note as heavyweight technology stocks retreated from last week's rally that had propelled the S&P 500 to record highs.

Big-name technology companies weighed on the markets, with Nvidia and Oracle posting notable declines. Following last week's strong performance, stocks drifted lower throughout Monday's session. All major averages declined, though selling pressure remained relatively muted.

The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's release of its December meeting minutes, which are expected to reveal divisions within the central bank over next year's policy trajectory.

Investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25%–4.50% at that meeting. Market pricing suggests approximately an 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the upcoming January meeting.

Oil prices edged lower early Tuesday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session—partly pressured by spill-over from a pullback in precious metals—even as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions kept supply-disruption fears elevated.

Precious metals retreated sharply on Monday, with silver and platinum pulling back from session highs, as investors locked in profits following recent rallies.

The Indian rupee extended its decline for a fifth consecutive session, weakening 12 paise against the dollar to close at 89.97. The move reflected a shift toward risk aversion, combined with typical month-end demand from importers and corporates amid thin market liquidity.

The Nifty's short-term trend weakened as it closed below its 20-day EMA at 25,993. However, the index continues to trade above its 50-day EMA support at 25,832 and maintains a higher-high, higher-low pattern on the daily chart, thereby preserving the broader uptrend.

A sustained break below 25726 would invalidate this bullish structure and could serve as a stop-loss reference for long positions. On the upside, the 26,100–26,150 zone is likely to act as near-term resistance.

Indian markets are likely to open muted on the monthly derivative expiry day amid a lack of strong global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Strong Data Drive US Markets to Records; Indian Equities Recover Modestly

US stock markets rose during the shortened holiday last week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both reaching record highs. Light news flow and trading volumes characterised the period, though favourable economic data and AI optimism supported positive sentiment.

Investors also processed a delayed BEA release showing that Q3 GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualised rate, bolstering growth confidence while moderating expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

Key data releases due include weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.

Indian markets ended the holiday-shortened week marginally higher, snapping a three-week losing streak, though Friday's session closed lower amid profit booking and thin volumes.

Mid-caps and small-caps outperformed. The RBI's liquidity infusion and progress on India-New Zealand free trade talks supported sentiment. Markets will now track India-US trade developments, FII flows, rupee movement, crude prices, and Q3 earnings.

The Indian rupee weakened to close at 89.85 against the U.S. dollar. The fall was attributed to persistent foreign outflows and increased dollar demand from metal importers.

Despite two straight sessions of profit booking, Nifty’s short-term setup remains positive, holding above its 20-day EMA and key gap support placed near the 26,000 level.

Immediate resistance is at 26,145, followed by 26,250. On the downside, a close below 26,000 may trigger further weakness towards 25,880 and 25,770.

Corporate activity remained muted, with no major IPOs, though developments in Adani Group's cement merger remained in focus.

Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher on the back of positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P 500 Hits Record High as Strong GDP Data Fuels Rally; Nifty Consolidates After Sharp Rally

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a record close after a series of robust economic data pushed bond yields higher and lifted growth stocks.

The major averages extended their recent gains, with the S&P 500 achieving a new all-time closing high.

The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter—the fastest pace since Q3 2023 and well above economists' 3.3% forecast—driven by strong consumer spending.

Spot gold surged past the psychological $4,500 per ounce milestone on Wednesday for the first time, propelled by safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations.

Silver touched a fresh all-time high and surged beyond $72. The metal has gained 24% in December alone and 135% year-over-year, reflecting tight supply-demand fundamentals and robust safe-haven flows.

*Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as investors weighed stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth against potential supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia.

The Indian rupee closed flat for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, as year-end rebalancing flows offset intraday weakness.

Following a sharp two-day rally, the Nifty consolidated yesterday, trading within a narrow range on the weekly expiry day.

The index maintains a positive short-term trend with a bullish higher-top, higher-bottom pattern on the daily chart.

The Nifty could extend its advance toward resistance levels at 26,202 and 26,330, while 26,000 is expected to provide near-term support.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

AI Stocks Power Wall Street Rally as Santa Claus Rally Hopes Rise, Nifty Eyes Further Upside

U.S. equities advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.88%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.31%.

AI-related stocks—including Nvidia, Oracle, and Micron—led the broad-based rally.

The VIX - CBOE volatility index fell to its lowest level since September, signalling diminished market anxiety as investors positioned for a potential Santa Claus rally during the holiday-shortened week.

AI leader Nvidia extended its gains following a report that the company has informed Chinese clients it plans to begin shipping its second-most-advanced AI chips to China ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February.

Spot gold reached a record high of $4,445 per ounce during early Asian trading on Tuesday, driven by expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and robust central bank and ETF purchases.

Silver surged alongside gold, gaining nearly 2% and reaching record highs as the precious metal has more than doubled in value during 2024. The rally reflects expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and heightened safe-haven demand.

WTI crude oil rose 2% to $57.81 per barrel after the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted an oil tanker near Venezuela and Ukraine struck a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean—marking the first such incident.

Energy stocks advanced as geopolitical tensions heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions heading into 2025.

Copper futures held above $5.43 per pound, approaching five-month highs, supported by strong demand from China's electric-vehicle and energy-infrastructure sectors.

Asian equities rose alongside precious metals today as momentum buying continued ahead of the festive holidays, with investors awaiting an advanced reading on U.S. GDP expected later in the day.

The Nifty closed 206 points higher at 26,172 on Monday, marking its strongest close since December 5.

The index established a bullish higher-high, higher-low pattern on daily charts by breaching the key resistance level of 26,058.

Market breadth remained positive for the second consecutive session.

The index could extend its advance toward 26,202 and 26,330, with immediate support positioned at 26,000.

Indian markets are poised to rise further on the back of short covering on the weekly Nifty expiry day and positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

U.S. Stocks Rally as cooler-than-expected inflation data lift sentiment; Bank of Japan rate decision to weigh on markets.

U.S. stocks rebounded on Thursday as easing inflation supported expectations for future rate cuts. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4% after Wednesday's tech selloff.

Micron shares rose 7% on revenue guidance of $18.70 billion for the current quarter—well above the $14.20 billion estimate—citing demand substantially exceeding supply. The results eased concerns about AI spending and lifted the semiconductor sector.

The rally followed Labour Department data showing that consumer price growth at 2.7% annually in November, lower than anticipated, boosting hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Gold traded near $4,330 per ounce, approaching records, driven by U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and regional military build-up. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed

Inflation signals maintained elevated safe-haven demand.

Copper futures rose to $5.37 per pound, near multi-month highs, supported by Chinese EV growth, infrastructure investment, and AI-driven US demand. Supply disruptions at major Chilean and Peruvian mines reinforced the bullish outlook, with prices up 33.6% year over year.

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates today to a three-decade high and signal readiness for further hikes, citing confidence that sustained wage growth will keep inflation near its 2% target.

Asian markets rebounded today following a tech-driven Wall Street rally, with investors anticipating the BOJ rate hike and its potential impact on currencies and bonds.

Sentiment improved after U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2.7%, although analysts cautioned that the government shutdown distorted the data and that the data should be interpreted cautiously.

Indian rupee appreciated by 14 paise to settle at 90.24 against the US dollar, marking a second straight day of gains. The currency’s renewed strength is being underpinned by steady corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices, signalling an improved supply backdrop that has allowed the rupee to regain some lost ground.

Despite the recent correction, the Nifty has so far held above the 50‑DEMA at 25,767 and the previous swing low at 25,693.

A decisive close below these supports could accelerate selling pressure, whereas on the upside, the 26,000 level is likely to remain a major hurdle.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.

Tech Selloff Deepens as Markets Await Three Central Bank Decisions

Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling to three-week lows as AI valuation concerns pressured technology stocks.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.8%, marking four consecutive sessions of tech-led losses. Oracle plunged 5.4% on data centre concerns, while Nvidia fell 3.8%, Broadcom 4.5% amid persistent AI valuation worries.

Markets await three key events: the Bank of England's expected 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%, the ECB's anticipated rate hold at 2.15%, and the BOJ's expected rate increase to a three-decade high.

The dollar strengthened against major currencies Thursday as markets positioned for central bank decisions in Britain, Europe, and Japan.

Oil prices rebounded from four-year lows after President Trump ordered a complete blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, pushing Brent crude above $59 per barrel.

Silver surged to a record high while gold hovered near its all-time peak, reflecting aggressive market pricing of monetary debasement and macro uncertainty.

Copper futures steadied around $5.35 per pound, up 1.15% daily and 33% year-over-year, supported by strong Chinese EV demand and U.S. AI investment. Supply disruptions in Chile and Peru, plus potential U.S. tariffs on refined metals, reinforced the bullish outlook despite broader market weakness.

Nifty extended its losing streak for the third consecutive session, slipping 41 points to close at 25,818 yesterday.

Indian rupee snapped its five-day losing streak, appreciating sharply by 65 paise against the U.S. dollar. The rebound is widely attributed to suspected central bank intervention.

Nifty has reached near its 50 DEMA support, currently placed at 25765. A decisive break below the 50-DEMA could trigger additional selling pressure and deepen the ongoing correction.

On the upside, the 26,000 zone is expected to provide immediate resistance; a sustained close above it may prompt short-covering in the index.

Indian markets are poised to open near yesterday's close due to the absence of any strong global cues.