The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz

To understand the war unfolding with Iran today — and where it could lead — you have to understand the history that brought the Middle East to this moment.

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with acclaimed historian Simon Sebag Montefiore, author of The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East, to put today’s conflict with Iran in its deeper historical context.

When did this war really begin — with October 7, the direct 2025 US-Israel-Iran confrontation, or the Islamic Revolution of 1979? Montefiore traces the forces that shaped the modern Middle East and examines how Khomeini’s revolution transformed Iran, political Islam, and the regional order.

The conversation explores what the current war is actually about, how victory should be measured, and whether external pressure can break the Islamic Republic. Mark and Simon also look beyond the current regime: If the Islamic Republic eventually disappears, which parts of Iran’s regional ambitions disappear with it — and which are rooted more deeply in Iranian history, geography, and nationalism?

Are we witnessing another violent turn in the Middle East — or the end of the revolutionary cycle that began with Khomeini in 1979? And if that era really is ending, what comes next?

Elliot Kaufman and Yonah Jeremy Bob are the co-authors of the new book, In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel’s Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis – an inside account of the decisions, debates, and personalities that shaped Israel’s multi-front war, from October 7 to Hezbollah and ultimately Iran.

Elliot Kaufman is an editorial writer and member of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, where he focuses on Israel and Iran and has covered the war since October 7.

Yonah Jeremy Bob is the senior military analyst at The Jerusalem Post and the author of several books, including Target Tehran.

Their reporting draws on extensive access to senior military, intelligence, and political officials.

The Islamic Republic may discover that surviving the war was the easy part. Its military has been mauled, its deterrence shattered, its proxies weakened, and now an already dysfunctional economy faces relentless pressure — with no victory to rally around and no economic rescue on the horizon.

On the latest episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD’s Miad Maleki, a former senior Treasury sanctions official, to explain why the regime’s greatest threat may no longer come from American bombers or Israeli jets, but from an economic crisis it cannot bomb, repress, or print its way out of.

For decades, Washington and Jerusalem worried about Iran dominating the Middle East. But as the Islamic Republic weakens, is Erdogan’s Turkey positioning itself to become the region’s next great revisionist power?

Mark Dubowitz is joined by two Turkey and Middle East experts: Steven A. Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at FDD.

They discuss Erdogan’s ambitions, Turkey’s growing confrontation with Israel in Syria, Ankara’s support for Hamas, its complicated relationship with Tehran, its future in NATO—and whether Turkey could eventually pursue nuclear weapons.

The central question: As Iran declines, is Turkey the next big Islamist threat?

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with FDD’s Rich Goldberg for a wide-ranging discussion on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets and America’s growing energy dominance.

Rich leads FDD’s Energy and National Security Program and served in the second Trump administration, where he helped establish the White House National Energy Dominance Council. During the first Trump administration, he served at the White House as director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction. A former Navy intelligence officer with experience on the Joint Staff and in Afghanistan, Rich also spent years on Capitol Hill, where he was a lead architect of sanctions against Iran. Iran sanctioned him in 2020

Mark and Rich examine the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience and the risks in global energy markets, emerging workarounds to bypass the strait, America’s expanding energy power and China’s role in the equation. It’s a conversation about more than barrels and pipelines—it’s about energy, economics and military power, and the central question: Does Iran have Trump over a barrel—or is it the other way around?

Relevant article: Tehran is losing its grip on Hormuz, and with it all its leverage

What makes the Islamic Republic of Iran different from a conventional regime seeking security, prosperity, and survival? Its ideological DNA fuses Maoist revolutionary thought, Frantz Fanon’s vision of anticolonial struggle and redemptive violence—channeled through Iranian intellectual Ali Shariati—and a revolutionary Shia theology of martyrdom, resistance, and struggle against oppression.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder and first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, forged these currents into a revolutionary state whose legitimacy rests not simply on governing Iran, but on resisting an international order it considers fundamentally unjust.

That helps explain the regime’s remarkable ability to turn military defeats, economic devastation, and mass suffering into narratives of resistance, sacrifice, and even victory.

Haviv Rettig Gur—Middle East analyst at The Free Press, and host of Ask Haviv Anything—joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to unpack the ideological DNA of the Islamic Republic, why it has endured, and what its enemies still misunderstand about the regime they are fighting.

The next battlefield isn’t in the sky or at sea—it’s underground.

The Islamic Republic, together with Hamas and Hezbollah, spent decades building a subterranean fortress: hundreds of miles of terror tunnels beneath Gaza and Lebanon, and deeply buried nuclear and missile facilities designed to survive even the most powerful airstrikes. At the center of that strategy is Pickaxe Mountain, where Tehran is constructing hardened underground infrastructure intended to shield its nuclear weapons program from U.S. and Israeli airpower.

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz sits down with Yadin Soffer, co-founder and CEO of Traysar, a startup developing autonomous systems for underground warfare. They explore how this emerging technology could detect, penetrate, and neutralize subterranean threats—and whether advances in underground warfare could change the strategic equation against deeply buried targets like Pickaxe Mountain.

Iran isn’t dismantling its nuclear program—it’s burying it deeper underground.

At the center of growing U.S. concern is Pickaxe Mountain, a massive underground complex that signals the regime has no intention of abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Buried deep beneath solid rock and heavily fortified, the facility may be the most challenging nuclear target the United States has ever confronted, raising difficult questions about whether it can be destroyed by conventional means.

Andrea Stricker, deputy director and research fellow in FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to explain why Pickaxe Mountain matters, what makes it so difficult to neutralize, what military and non-military options remain, and which other parts of Iran’s nuclear program deserve urgent attention.

The United States has launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran, hitting roughly 90 targets along the country's coastline, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz threaten to unravel a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. With diplomatic channels strained and the regime holding Hormuz hostage, the path back to de-escalation looks increasingly uncertain.

To unpack what comes next, FDD Senior Advisor Richard Goldberg joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to break down the state of the ceasefire, the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington's shifting strategy.

The Israel-Lebanon framework brokered by Secretary Rubio may be historic, but Hezbollah still hasn't disarmed. The deal ties Israeli withdrawal to the Lebanese army securing designated pilot zones — yet Hezbollah and its parliamentary allies have already rejected it outright. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran MOU threatens to undercut the whole effort, handing Tehran leverage over Israel's right to self-defense and potentially unlocking billions of dollars for the regime that arms Hezbollah in the first place. With Hezbollah the linchpin of Tehran's "axis of resistance," leaving Lebanon unaddressed is a danger that can't be ignored.

Carine Hajjar — opinion journalist at The Washington Post and Steamboat Institute fellow with deep roots in Lebanon — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask whether this is Lebanon's real chance to break free of Iran's grip, or another false dawn.

The 60-day MOU between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States may dominate headlines, but for 90 million Iranians it changes nothing. The agreement contains no mention of the Iranian people — who only months ago faced a brutal massacre by the regime of an estimated 40,000 protesters. Deal or no deal, the Iranian people face water shortages, power outages, staggering inflation, frozen exports, and throttled internet as a daily reality. Meanwhile, a sanctions waiver allows the IRGC to sell oil and receive payment directly, financing the very institution that oversees their repression.

With the naval blockade lifted and maximum pressure easing, the Islamic Republic is now turning its full attention to the last threat it faces: the millions of Iranians who want it gone.

Medhi Parpanchi — native Iranian and Persian-language journalist at Iran International — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdownto ask the question Washington isn't: what does this mean for Iranians?

President Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal. The debate is fierce: does the US-Iran MOU go far enough? Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and frozen assets all remain unresolved — leaving critical questions about what any final agreement may actually deliver.

Robert Greenway — military veteran, diplomat, and a key architect of the Abraham Accords — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to cut through the noise. They examine the MOU's terms, the long arc of Trump's maximum pressure campaign, and what happens if Tehran doesn't comply.

The clock is ticking on the Islamic Republic — but what does finishing the job actually look like? With the regime battered, broken, and the pressure campaign at a critical inflection point, the U.S. faces a defining choice: double down or negotiate from strength? What tools remain in Washington's arsenal, and how does the Trump administration turn military and economic pressure into lasting political change?

Mark Dubowitz is joined by Marc Thiessen, American Enterprise Institute fellow, former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush, and Washington Post columnist, to map out the next phase of the U.S. pressure campaign, the strategic choices that will define the endgame, and what it will take to finally free the Iranian people from over four decades of brutal rule by the Islamic Regime.

The Islamic Republic played one of the few cards it had left: the Strait of Hormuz. How did military planners prepare for this moment? Was a closure inevitable? If the U.S. and Israel had not confronted the Islamic Republic, where would we be today? And is Hormuz a diminishing weapon of leverage in the hands of Iran as countries take steps to reduce their dependencies on the straits?

Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD Senior Advisor Rich Goldberg — who served on the National Security Council as Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction, helped stand up the White House National Energy Dominance Council, and leads FDD's Energy and National Security Program — to break down the military and energy battles over the Strait and the cards President Trump still has left to play.

Every Iranian revolution begins with an ordinary life hitting an extraordinary wall.Stolen Revolutioncaptures those moments — the personal reckonings with a regime that promised faith and delivered suffocation. Co-authored by award-winning journalists Yeganeh Torbati and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the book traces six Iranians living the full arc of modern Iranian history: a Khomeini devotee cast from power, a poet who gave voice to a generation's shattered dreams, a bureaucrat who risked everything to expose state corruption, an entrepreneur crushed by the security apparatus, and two young women who joined the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising.

Iran International's Bozorgmehr Sharafedin joins FDD Iran Program Senior Director Behnam Ben Taleblu to unpack the human stories behind Iran's seismic shift from reform to revolution, and what they reveal about life under the Islamic Republic.

A deal has been struck. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Iran's nuclear program is — allegedly — being curtailed. And sanctions relief is on the way. But what did the United States actually get? What did the Islamic Republic walk away with? And does this agreement close the door on Iran's path to a nuclear weapon — or just delay it? Richard Goldberg — FDD's Senior Director for Energy and National Security, former White House NSC Director for Countering Iranian WMD, and one of the architects of maximum pressure — joins Mark Dubowitz to break down the deal, assess the terms, and ask the question that will define its legacy: vice grip or open door?

Is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire built to last? While the bombs have stopped, the strategic Battle for Hormuz continues to threaten global stability. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz is joined by Aaron MacLean — CBS News national security analyst and host of the School of War podcast — to assess the military, strategic, and geopolitical stakes of the Iran war. Is the ceasefire a pause button or a vice grip? And what did Iran's Hormuz gamble reveal to Beijing, Moscow, and every member of the axis of aggressors watching closely?

In this special solo episode of The Iran Breakdown, FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz pushes back hard on the narrative that America is losing the war with the Islamic Republic. Step by step, he makes the case that Tehran has just suffered the most severe strategic defeat in its 47-year history — its leadership decapitated, its nuclear program gutted, its air defenses shattered, its proxies in ruins, and its economy in a death spiral with the clock running out. The only remaining question: will the ceasefire be a pause that lets the regime breathe — or the closing vice on a failing regime? Mark argues the discipline to answer that question correctly is the last thing standing between America and a durable victory.

Riyadh is pressing Washington with a blunt message: don't leave the job half-finished.

Saudi Arabia publicly condemned the strikes — and privately urged Trump to launch them. Now MBS faces the question he's long telegraphed: if Iran gets a bomb, the Kingdom follows. With IAEA inspectors locked out, is that still a signal — or active policy?

Bernard Haykel, Princeton's foremost scholar of the Arabian Peninsula and author of the forthcoming book, The Realm: MBS and the Transformation of Saudi Arabia, joins Mark Dubowitz to break down what Riyadh wants, what it's willing to do, and what Washington still misunderstands about the man running the Kingdom.

No tanks. No invasion. No march on Tehran.

Instead: a methodical campaign to dismantle Iran’s war machine — missiles, drones, command networks, and the economy keeping it all alive.

But can you break a regime by breaking the system that sustains it?

Urban warfare expert John Spencer joins Mark Dubowitz to unpack the real logic of this war — from the “neurological” battlefield to the fight over Hormuz — and what victory actually looks like when there’s no surrender to sign.

Iran isn’t just under pressure. It’s under siege.

Its currency is collapsing. Its ports are constrained. Billions are bleeding out as war damage mounts and oil revenue tightens.

This isn’t sanctions as usual. It’s economic warfare—aimed at the regime’s ability to survive.

The question now: Does this force Tehran to the table… or push it toward something far more dangerous?

Back in January, the regime carried out the deadliest crackdown in modern Iranian history.

As it gunned down protesters in the streets, it launched a parallel war online. A coordinated campaign to turn a domestic uprising into a so-called CIA–Mossad plot — rewriting the story in real time and pushing that narrative deep into Western discourse.

The January crackdown and the narrative battle that accompanied it aren’t isolated incidents. They set conditions for the war that followed, shaping global perception before a single American fighter jet took flight.

So, was all of this just another page from the regime’s standard propaganda playbook? Or is information warfare now a core pillar of its survival?

For years, Washington has leaned on sanctions to contain Iran’s most dangerous capabilities.

Tehran’s drone and missile programs didn’t just survive under pressure, they adapted, scaled, and in many ways thrived, fueled in part by Western-made components slipping through global supply chains.

The result: a procurement network that’s harder to disrupt, more resilient, and still very much intact.

Now, Tehran isn’t just building for itself. It’s exporting the model — arming Russia in Ukraine, supplying proxies across the Middle East, and even laying the groundwork for drone production in places like Venezuela, putting parts of the United States within range.

So the question isn’t whether sanctions work — it’s whether we’re hitting the right targets.

To break all of this down, host Mark Dubowitz is joined by Kerri Bitsoff — a former senior official at the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) who has been called a ‘secret weapon’ in the fight against Iran's weapons procurement.

This war isn’t just being fought with missiles and drones. There's also a war of the words, a narrative battle.

While the regime pushes its narrative at home and abroad, the West struggles to keep up — and the Iranian people are caught in between. 

So, who controls the story: the regime, the West, or the Iranian people?

Mark is joined by historian Ali Ansari to unpack the battle of narratives, the reality of regime power, and who may ultimately shape Iran’s future.

On the battlefield, the Iran war is expanding, and the real negotiations aren’t happening in backchannels — they’re happening in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Iran war isn’t just about Iran. It’s about energy, leverage, and whether Beijing—and even Taiwan—are already learning the lessons of this war in real time. 

FDD’s Matt Pottinger joins host Mark Dubowitz to break down why a deal may be closer than it looks, why Trump may not take it, and how this war is already reshaping the global balance of power — and why China’s watching closely.

We’re marking one year of The Iran Breakdown by bringing you a special conversation from our sister FDD podcast.

In this episode of Foreign Podicy, host Cliff May sits down with Mark Dubowitz to unpack a question at the core of this show: what the Islamic Republic actually believes — and how it has waged war on the United States and its allies since 1979.

It’s a conversation about ideology, strategy, and a threat too often misunderstood.

If you want to understand the regime in order to make sense of the war, start here.

The regime is down — but it's not out. So... what does collapse actually look like? Not strikes... Not decapitations... The moment the regime loses control. Mark asks Ray Takeyh and Reuel Marc Gerecht to answer the only question that matters now: Are we close to the breaking point? If not, how do we close that gap?

The U.S. and Israel again struck deep inside Iran. The Supreme Leader is dead. The region is on edge. The question is no longer whether this is war — but how long will it last and what will be the impact.

The conflict has now spread far beyond Tehran’s borders: Hezbollah rockets have drawn Israel into full-blown engagements across Lebanon, Gulf states have condemned Iranian aggression as they reel from missile and drone salvos, and intelligence agencies warn of expanded retaliatory attacks against the United States and its allies.

On the streets and in the corridors of power, tectonic shifts are underway. Regional capitals brace for wider war, global energy markets react at threats to closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacks against oil infrastructure, and governments from Islamabad to London confront unrest and diplomatic peril.

The Iran Breakdownhost Mark Dubowitz is joined by Eli Lake to assess the battlefield, the intelligence as we know it, and the stakes. Is the regime collapsing — or will it whether this confrontation as it has in the past? What comes next for the Iranian people, for Israel, for the region, and for the United States?

Eli's latest

The Breaking History podcast

March 2, 2026 | The Free Press| J.D. Vance’s Iran Dilemma

February 28, 2026 | The Free Press|Trump Keeps His Promise to Iran—and Takes a Big Gamble

Bonus Episode of The Iran Breakdown: Mark Dubowitz joins FDD's Jonathan Schanzer and Rich Goldberg for a late night FDD SITREP following the death of Khamenei.

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In the early hours of February 28, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against the Iranian regime—Washington calling it “Operation Epic Fury,” Israel calling it “Operation Lion’s Roar.” Strikes hit sites across Iran, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, IRGC facilities, intelligence headquarters, and senior regime leadership.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead. President Trump confirmed his elimination on February 28: “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead.” U.S. officials told Fox News that the strikes were moved up after intelligence revealed Khamenei and dozens of senior Iranian officials were meeting at his compound. Among those killed: Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, IRGC Chief Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and multiple other senior military and intelligence figures.

Iran has retaliated. A ballistic missile penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck a residential building in central Tel Aviv, killing at least one woman. Over 200 missiles and drones were fired at Israel and U.S. bases across the region—striking the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and causing casualties in Dubai and Syria. Regional governments have condemned Iran’s strikes in the strongest terms.

Inside Iran, the response is electric. Videos show Iranians cheering in the streets. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on the armed forces to defect and urged citizens to prepare to mobilize. The opposition is deploying secure communications, satellite broadcasts, and hacked regime infrastructure to sustain the moment. The regime is decapitated. The question now is whether it falls.

To assess fast-moving developments and their strategic implications, FDD hosts a timely SITREP moderated by FDD Executive Director and host of the FDD Morning Brief Jonathan Schanzer, featuring FDD CEO and host of The Iran Breakdown Mark Dubowitz, and FDD Senior Advisor and former White House National Security Council director Richard Goldberg.

The U.S. and Israel have conducted joint military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" by Washington and "Lion's Roar" by Jerusalem, the strikes were launched on February 28 after nuclear negotiations with the regime failed to yield progress. President Trump stated that U.S. objectives are to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime." Key targets included the office compound of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Ministries of Intelligence and Defense, and the Parchin military complex, with additional strikes on regime targets in Isfahan, Tabriz, and Bandar Abbas.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu framed the operation's objectives as removing the "existential threat" posed by the Islamic Republic and creating conditions for the Iranian people to achieve regime change—calling on Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Baloch, and Ahwazi alike to "cast off the yoke of tyranny."

Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes targeting U.S. bases and allies across the region, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Israel, and Bahrain—where a missile struck a facility affiliated with the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet.

Today, Iran is entering a decisive phase—where economic collapse, mass unrest, and direct military pressure are converging faster than at any point since 1979. As long as theocratic extremists rule in Iran, the Middle East will remain a factory for terror, missiles, and nuclear blackmail. These strikes have sharpened urgent questions about what comes next—for the regime, the Iranian people, and regional stability.

To assess fast-moving developments and their strategic implications, FDD will host a timely SITREP moderated by FDD CEO and host of The Iran Breakdown Mark Dubowitz, featuring FDD Executive Director and host of the FDD Morning Brief Jonathan Schanzer and FDD Senior Fellow and former IDF international spokesperson Jonathan Conricus.

How does Iran fit into the global ecosystem of terrorism — and why does the West struggle to see the full picture?

For decades, policymakers treated ISIS, al-Qaeda, and Iran’s proxy network as separate threats. But that's not reality. This is: They operate in the same battle space and exploit the same weaknesses in Western strategy.

To examine what the West missed — and what it may still be getting wrong — host Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD senior fellow Ambassador Edmund Fitton-Brown. From Yemen to the United Nations, Edmund has first-hand experience tracking how states and terrorist groups adapt, cooperate, and project power.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

Ronald Reagan didn’t defeat the Soviet empire with tanks — he defeated it with pressure, principle, and moral clarity. Can the same strategy work in Iran? A recent FDD Memo, “Freedom for Iran: Learning From U.S. Support for Polish Anti-Communists in the 1980s,” says that it can. Mark is joined by the Memo’s authors, Charlie Laderman and Nazee Moinian, to break down how the playbook can be applied to the Islamic Republic — a regime that fears its own citizens most — including why regime change doesn’t require invasion, how internal pressure is Tehran’s greatest weakness, and why negotiating without leverage only empowers dictators. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes — and Iran may be next.

One of the gravest human rights crises in recent history is happening right now in Iran. The Islamic Republic has carried out mass killings on a scale not seen in modern Iranian history, slaughtering an estimated 33,000, arresting tens of thousands, and subjecting countless Iranians to torture, disappearance, and sham trials. Internet blackouts have plunged entire cities into darkness in an effort to conceal the carnage.

This is a regime ruling through terror because it has lost legitimacy and control.

Behnam Ben Taleblu joins Mark to break down the scale of the atrocities, why this moment is historically unprecedented, and why Iran’s human rights crisis is inseparable from the regime’s broader threat to regional and global security.

The regime in Iran has slaughtered tens of thousands of Iranians and plunged the country into an internet blackout — and dared the world to look away. Still, President Trump warned that American support was coming as U.S. military vessels made their way to the region. And yet — the decisive moment hasn’t arrived.

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz is joined again by Rich Goldberg for a timely assessment of the waiting game: what military options are now on the table, why missiles — not nukes — may be the real center of gravity, whether negotiations are strategy or psychological warfare, and how delay reshapes deterrence, escalation, and the fate of the Iranian people. This isn’t a pause — it’s a countdown.

While the United States is on the brink of military action in Iran, Iran itself may be on the brink of something far bigger.

U.S. forces are repositioning. Allies are on alert. And in Tehran, a crippled regime already at war with its own people is threatening retaliation against the United States.

In this urgent episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark is joined again by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh to break down what a U.S. strike would actually mean — militarily, strategically, and for the Iranian people themselves — and why American credibility is once again on the line. 

From Iran’s likely response to the durability of its repression, the conversation confronts the million-dollar question: Is this the moment the regime doubles down — or the moment Iranians begin to take their country back?

Read next

Ray and Reuel's Wall Street Journal piece from January 12: Don’t Repeat Obama’s Mistake in Iran

Ray and Reuel's Wall Street Journal piece from January 8: Can Iran Hold the Line Against Its Protesters?

Watch next

If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next watch.

Iran protest resources

We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, like Mark, Behnam, Saeed, and Janatan

Iran Breakdown-ers, we're pleased to introduce you to Generation Jihad, a podcast from FDD's Long War Journal hosted by Bill Roggio.

It's January 12, 2026, day 16 of the Iran protests. Bill hosts Mark on Generation Jihadto discuss whether this is the moment.

Iran protest resources

We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next watch.

Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, like Mark, Behnam, Saeed, and Janatan

...

The following content is cross-posted

Mark Dubowitz: The regime clings to its ninth life

After military defeat abroad and at home where the economy also has collapsed, the Islamic Republic is weaker than ever, and the Iranian people know it.

The regime is facing a nationwide uprising unlike anything seen in decades with Iranians across class, age, and ideology back in the streets, and they’re no longer asking for reform. They’re demanding an end to the Islamic Republic itself. 

Meanwhile, President Trump warned that U.S. military action is on the table if the regime slaughters protesters. As we record, a brutal crackdown is underway with reports of hundreds of Iranians killed and tens of thousands arrested. Is this the moment?

Bill asks FDD CEO and  host Mark Dubowitz.

The strong-as-ever Iranian people are back on the streets, protesting against the weak-as-ever regime in the shadow of the 12-Day War. 

Recorded live on X Spaces on Thursday, January 8, 2026 as events unfolded, this episode of The Iran Breakdown brings you a real-time conversation with Mark Dubowitz, Behnam Ben Taleblu, and Janatan Sayeh as they assess what’s different about this protest wave, why fear inside Iran may be breaking, and how years of political repression, economic collapse, and environmental failure are converging into a single moment of reckoning.

Iran protest resources

—We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

—If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's inaugural interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next listen.

—Our Iran experts are on X, including Mark, Behnam, Saeed, Janatan, and others.

In the last week, U.S. and Israeli forces have hit the heart of the Islamic Republic’s power from Fordow and Natanz to Evin Prison and the Basij headquarters. Khamenei has gone dark. The Islamic Republic is on the defensive. But moments like this can go two ways: collapse or crackdown. Is this the moment the opposition seizes — or one the regime survives?

Mehdi Parpanchi is one of the sharpest voices covering Iran today and the executive editor of Iran International, the 24/7 Persian-language channel the regime fears most.

He joins host Mark Dubowitz to unpack what’s breaking inside the regime — and what might be rising to replace it.

The shadow war is over. This weekend, the United States took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear program for the first time, in a coordinated operation with Israel that targeted the regime’s most heavily fortified enrichment sites.

The strikes were historic. The question now: Did they actually work? What was hit — and is anything still operational?

Host Mark Dubowitz is joined by David Albright — president and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security and one of the world’s leading nuclear experts — to break down the damage, the regime’s next moves, and what comes after Operation Midnight Hammer.

Mossad strikes inside Iran. Top scientists and IRGC leaders are dead. Mark Dubowitz and Eyal Hulata, Israel’s former national security advisor and 23-year Mossad veteran, break down Israel’s boldest op yet—and what happens if the job isn’t finished.

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here: https://youtu.be/1Ab4XFaWnOk?si=aIdBdvY1mkMiQPN9

To unpack the latest developments in Israel's ongoing operation against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Chief Executive Mark Dubowitz hosts a special live edition of FDD's The Iran Breakdown with Israeli journalists Barak Ravid and Nadav Eyal.

About the Episode

In 2015 while serving in the Obama administration, Dan Shapiro supported the Iran nuclear deal. Mark Dubowitz led the fight to stop it.

A decade later, Iran is a nuclear threshold state. The regime has enriched enough uranium for multiple bombs, deterrence has broken down, and Washington still hasn’t figured out how to stop a nuclear Iran.

Today, Mark and Dan are in the same strategic corner—not because the politics have shifted but because reality has.

And they're both asking the same question: With diplomacy failing and enrichment advancing, what’s next?

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here: https://youtu.be/1Ab4XFaWnOk?si=aIdBdvY1mkMiQPN9

About the Episode

Mehdi Yahyanejad was raised in the Islamic Republic. Now, he's fighting it from the outside... with code.

From founding the digital platform that helped power Iran’s Green Movement in 2009 to coordinating resistance through online activism, Mehdi has seen firsthand how technology empowers dissidents and fuels regime resistance.

As the Islamic Republic faces external challenges coupled with internal decay, the regime is cracking. Mehdi and Mark discuss how the right digital tools can help the Iranian people finish the job.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here: https://youtu.be/1Ab4XFaWnOk?si=aIdBdvY1mkMiQPN9

About the Episode

Liraz Charhi is an Israeli artist with deep Iranian roots, and her voice is shaking the walls of the Islamic Republic. 

Known for her role on the hit Apple TV+ series Tehran, Liraz joins Mark Dubowitz to reveal how her art became real-life defiance: from secretly collaborating with Iranian women banned from singing, to recording underground albums across encrypted apps, and turning her song "Roya" — a song you're familiar with, as it's the theme music to this podcast series — into an anthem for the Woman, Life, Freedom movement.

This is a story of identity, rebellion, and the dream of a free Iran — sung loud enough to rattle the regime and inspire a generation.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here: https://youtu.be/1Ab4XFaWnOk?si=aIdBdvY1mkMiQPN9

About the Episode

Host Mark Dubowitz is joined by author Roya Hakakian to trace the Islamic Republic’s decades-long war on dissent — both inside Iran and across the globe. Roya shares her personal journey from a hopeful 12-year-old during the 1979 revolution to a refugee, writer, and fierce advocate for democracy.

At the heart of their discussion is the Mykonos trial, the landmark 1997 case in Berlin that exposed Tehran’s direct role in assassinating Iranian dissidents on European soil and forced a Western reckoning. They unpack how Tehran uses lies, violence, and intimidation as tools of statecraft. From Khomeini’s infamous “I lied” to the chilling reach of regime assassins in places like Berlin and Brooklyn, this episode is a warning: the Islamic Republic hasn’t changed, and the stakes are higher than ever.

Watch this episode on YouTube here.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist’s permission) Liraz Charhi’s single, “Roya” — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

Host Mark Dubowitz is joined byBehnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of FDD's Iran Program and author of Arsenal: Assessing Iran's Ballistic Missile Program, for a masterclass on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s expansive — and still growing — weapons arsenal and the central role it plays in Tehran’s broader military strategy.

From the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile and drone programs, military doctrine, and global proliferation links with North Korea, China, and Russia — or, as Mark calls it, "The Axis of Misery" — to its precision strike systems, proxy warfare, and unprecedented missile attacks on nuclear-armed states, Behnam and Mark explore how the regime combines these elements to coerce, deter, and dominate.

Watch this episode on YouTube here.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist’s permission) Liraz Charhi’s single, “Roya” — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz continues to expose and examine Tehran’s proxy wars. This time, we unravel Tehran’s relationship with the Houthis in Yemen; the Shi’a militias in Iraq; and Hamas in Gaza, specifically looking at the Regime’s hand in the October 7 attack against Israel.

Admiral Mark Montgomery, Bill Roggio, and Beni Sabti, join Mark to scrutinize the Islamic Republic's weaponization of these militias to project power and carry out its agenda while dodging blame — and what America and its allies should do about it. 

Watch this episode on YouTube here.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist’s permission) Liraz Charhi’s single, “Roya” — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

It's the world’s most dangerous nuclear standoff. Can President Trump get Iran to dismantle its nuclear program — or is Tehran just playing for time? In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark sits down with award-winning journalist Barak Ravid for an insider’s look at the nuclear talks now underway in Oman. 

From enrichment red lines and snapback deadlines to Israel’s strategic calculus and Trump’s next move, Mark and Barak break down hard truths behind the headlines surrounding: Will the Iranians blink? Will Trump hold the line? And is Israel finally ready to act alone? 

Watch this episode on YouTube here.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist’s permission) Liraz Charhi’s single, “Roya” — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

Hezbollah is not a rogue actor. It’s a tool of the Islamic Republic.  

That’s because Iran doesn’t just fund terror — it runs a global terror empire. And Hezbollah is the crown jewel.

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz sits down with Dr. Matthew Levitt, a top authority on Hezbollah and Iran’s proxy warfare, to break down how Hezbollah operates as Iran’s most powerful proxy; its deep involvement in terror plots, weapons trafficking, and criminal finance; the group’s expanding footprint around the world; what the US, Israel, and allies must do to dismantle this network; and why Hezbollah’s role is central to Tehran’s long-term strategy — and its survival.

Watch this episode on YouTube here.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here: https://youtu.be/1Ab4XFaWnOk?si=aIdBdvY1mkMiQPN9 

About the Episode

Mark Dubowitz sits down with journalist Jay Solomon to unpack the new round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and trace the arc from Obama’s secret backchannels to Trump’s second shot at a deal — raising the question: are we about to do the fatally flawed, Obama-era JCPOA all over again?  

They unpack the early U.S. concessions that shaped the first deal, Iran’s global terror playbook, and what the new talks reveal about the regime’s leverage — and ours. 

They also discuss Iran’s growing boldness in global terror operations, including plots on American soil, and what it means for the future of U.S. foreign policy. 

Is history repeating itself? And if so, what lessons still haven’t been learned?

Watch this episode on YouTube here.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here: https://youtu.be/1Ab4XFaWnOk?si=aIdBdvY1mkMiQPN9

About the Episode

"Death to Israel, the little satan!"

It's all too familiar, this rallying cry of Islamic Republic regime officials and their sympathizers — they've been chanting this for almost 50 years now. But make no mistake: they mean what they say.

With its terrorist proxies across the region, the Iran threat has been knocking at Israel's door for decades. But on October 7, 2023, they knocked down the door—what was previously considered a "war between wars" came out of the shadows and into plain sight.

Tehran activated its regional terror proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen to pile on with direct rocket attacks in an attempt to overwhelm Israel's already-taxed security apparatus. And in an unprecedented move — not once but twice in recent months — a missile attack on Israel was launched directly from Tehran.

As the new Trump administration grapples with how to face the Iran threat, understanding the Israeli perspective will be vital.

To help us do just that, host Mark Dubowitz speaks with Israel's former Prime Minister Yair Lapid as well as with former Israeli national security advisor Eyal Hulata, now a senior international fellow at FDD.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

In today’s episode, host Mark Dubowitz is joined by one of the Iranian regime's most fearless enemies, Masih Alinejad. Masih is not just a journalist or an activist—she’s a one-woman revolution. Born in Iran, exiled for speaking truth to power, and now living under constant threat, Masih has become a voice for the voiceless, especially for Iranian women fighting back against the regime's brutality. Her campaigns, My Stealthy Freedom, White Wednesdays, and United for Navid all went viral. Her social media platforms have become lifelines for Iranians risking everything to protest.

The regime sees her as a threat, and they've tried to silence her the only way they know how, through violence. In the past few years, the Islamic Republic has made multiple attempts to kidnap or assassinate her on US soil. A New York court recently convicted two men for their roles in a murder-for-hire plot orchestrated by Iranian operatives to assassinate Masih right in Brooklyn. We break down her story, the verdict, and what it tells us about the regime's global terror machine. 

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

Welcome to The Iran Breakdown, hosted by Mark Dubowitz.

If you know anything about Mark, you know he lives and breathes one mission: stopping a nuclear Iran and ending the Islamic Republic.

Back in 2018, The New York Times put it this way: “Mark Dubowitz’s campaign to draw attention to what he saw as the flaws in the Iran nuclear deal has taken its place among the most consequential ever undertaken by a Washington think tank leader.”

This excerpt was actually a hit piece that blamed Mark for President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal — the Times later issued multiple corrections to the piece because it was riddled with so many errors.

A year later, The Atlantic dubbed FDD “D.C.’s ground zero for research and policy recommendations aimed at highlighting and fixing what Dubowitz saw as the flaws in the nuclear agreement.”

Even Tehran took notice. In 2019, the Islamic Republic sanctioned FDD and Mark, accusing them of being “the designing and executing arm of the U.S. administration” on Iran policy. Guilty as charged.

Why? Because a nuclear Iran isn’t just a threat — it’s the threat. The regime’s race for the bomb is the most dangerous challenge coming out of Tehran, and in this episode, you'll learn why.

About the Guest

Here to help Mark break down Iran's nuclear file is Rich Goldberg, who served on the National Security Council as the director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction. He helped architect key parts of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign — a campaign that aimed to block Iran’s every pathway to nuclear weapons. Or as the regime calls the campaign: "economic terrorism." Rich also served in the Senate and the House where he drafted many of the key pieces of legislation sanctioning the Islamic Republic. Like Mark, Rich is proudly sanctioned by the Islamic Republic.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

About the Episode

Whether you’re a seasoned Iran watcher or just starting to explore the topic, understanding the Islamic Republic requires going back to the events that led to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. And to do that we need to revisit 1953, the year a coup overthrew Iran’s Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh. If you think you already know this story, think again.

About the Guest

Host Mark Dubowitz is joined by Ray Takeyh—renowned Iran scholar and author of "The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty." His research has challenged, clarified, and reshaped the traditional narrative surrounding these pivotal events.

Ray’s work isn’t just essential for understanding U.S.-Iran relations—it’s a guide for policymakers seeking to grasp the reality of an Iranian people who continue to defy the oppressive regime in Tehran. By the end of this episode, you’ll understand why.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

Welcome to inaugural episode of The Iran Breakdown, hosted by Mark Dubowitz.

About the Episode

There’s a truth we’ll come back to again and again on this show: The Iranian people are extraordinary. Whether in Tehran or Los Angeles, Berlin or Toronto — Iranians are known for their brilliance, resilience, and drive.

Here’s the tragedy: Only Iranians living outside the Islamic Republic are free to thrive. Inside Iran, under the grip of this brutal regime, that potential is crushed.

But it wasn’t always this way.

Just a few decades ago, Iran was a very different place. Women walked the streets in high fashion, Tehran’s vibrant nightlife rivaled Paris, and yes — Iran’s vineyards produced world-renowned wines that you could enjoy in the open. The people of Iran used to be free — before the Islamic Revolution of 1979 turned their lives, and their country, upside down.

Before we dive into today’s regime — its nuclear ambitions, its terror networks, and its stranglehold on the Iranian people — we need to understand how we got here.

In this episode, we’ll explore the regime’s relentless crackdown on dissent, the courage of Iran’s opposition, and the critical role the free world must play in standing with the Iranian people in their fight for liberty.

About the Guest

Joining Mark to break down how we got here is Reza Pahlavi, the Crown Prince of Iran.

As the son of the last Shah, he was raised to one day take the throne — but history took a brutal turn when the 1979 Revolution forced him and his family into exile. Since then, he’s become a leading voice for freedom, calling for an end to the Islamic Republic and the birth of a secular, democratic Iran.

About the Music

Our intro and outro music samples (with artist's permission) Liraz Charhi's single, "Roya" — check out the full version of the song and the meaning behind it here.

A limited series from FDD Podcasts hosted by Mark Dubowitz.