Excess Returns

Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he looks at contracts, financing costs, and the returns companies can earn on their investments.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jay joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss his S&P 500 scenarios, the debate over CoreWeave and AI infrastructure debt, and why he believes some technology stocks offer better value than perceived safe havens. He also challenges the Fed's inflation framework and explains how he combines earnings growth, dividend yield, catalysts, and individual-stock covered calls in his investment process.

Topics covered:

- How Jay Hatfield builds S&P 500 targets from earnings estimates and valuation multiples

- Why Treasury yields matter to discounted cash flow valuations

- CoreWeave, project financing, and the distinction between contracted demand and speculative construction

- What compute prices and long-term contracts could reveal about AI bubble risk

- Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" thesis and his comparisons of growth-adjusted stock valuations

- His framework linking the 10-year Treasury yield to expected terminal Fed policy

- Why he challenges the Fed's inflation target, shelter data, and use of PCE

- Evaluating dividend payers with PEGY: price relative to earnings growth plus dividend yield

- How reinvestment, corporate taxes, and returns on capital affect long-term compounding

- Combining stock selection and catalysts with actively managed covered calls

Infrastructure Capital Advisors:

https://www.infracapfunds.com/

Jay Hatfield / InfraCap on X:

https://x.com/JDHatfield_ICAP

InfraCap's CPI-R analysis:

https://www.infracapfunds.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-r

Chapters:

00:00 Jay Hatfield's S&P 500 outlook and market scenarios

06:43 Treasury yields, growth assumptions, and valuation multiples

13:03 Technology stocks, CoreWeave, and project financing

18:38 AI debt, vendor financing, and contracted demand

26:09 The AI "reverse bubble" and growth-adjusted valuations

31:09 Fed expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield

38:14 Jay Hatfield's critique of the Fed and inflation data

43:12 Could the Fed change its inflation target?

47:48 Dividend yield, PEGY, and corporate reinvestment

55:23 Stock selection, catalysts, and individual covered calls

01:00:23 The long-term investing lesson: valuation and compounding

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital shows how to uncover hidden AI exposure, overlapping ETF holdings, and unintended factor bets in your portfolio. Owning several funds can still leave you dependent on the same companies and the same AI spending cycle.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau for a walkthrough of Sparkline Analytics. Using examples from the S&P 500, Nasdaq, emerging markets, and active funds, they examine what investors actually own beneath the fund labels.

Kai explains his distinction between AI infrastructure, early adopters, and laggards, then demonstrates how factor analysis, intangible asset data, and a portfolio builder can help investors ask better questions about diversification and manager performance.

Explore Sparkline Analytics:
https://app.sparklinecapital.com/

Topics covered:

Chapters:

00:00 Sparkline Analytics and hidden AI exposure in the S&P 500
08:05 AI adopters, laggards, and multinational businesses
12:47 How index exposure changes as the AI cycle evolves
20:41 Does adding an AI fund diversify your portfolio?
25:44 Capital spending and effective portfolio concentration
30:14 Capital intensity and AI exposure beyond Big Tech
35:44 Diversifying without retreating into AI laggards
40:48 Screening funds and looking inside ARKK
46:11 Separating stock-picking alpha from factor exposure
52:35 Dividend, value, and low-volatility fund overlap
57:52 Intangible value and a fund-diligence checklist
01:05:39 Building a portfolio and looking through its holdings
01:10:39 Where to find Sparkline Analytics

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Daniel Crosby explains why investors can lose money in winning funds and how to build a portfolio they can actually hold. Picking the right investment is only part of the challenge; staying with it through discomfort is where behavior can overwhelm the plan.

In this episode of Excess Returns, psychologist and Orion Chief Behavioral Officer Daniel Crosby joins Matt Zeigler to discuss the new paperback edition of The Behavioral Investor. Daniel shares the story of a fund that returned over 18% annually for a decade while its average investor lost money, then explains how safety, stability, and success portfolios can help align investment decisions with human psychology. They also explore gambling apps, the limits of risk questionnaires, social media feedback loops, and the human side of financial advice in an AI-driven world.

Topics covered:

- Why a fund's returns can look very different from the returns its investors earn

- Building safety, stability, and success buckets around different financial needs

- The differences between risk tolerance, risk capacity, and risk composure

- Why knowing what to do does not guarantee doing it during a drawdown

- Daniel Crosby's case for rules, diversification, and meaningful benchmark differences

- How sports betting and prediction markets blur the distinction between investing and gambling

- Why recent market experience can create unrealistic expectations about future returns

- Education, environment, and encouragement as tools for changing investor behavior

- How algorithms reinforce market biases and why excitement can signal a blind spot

- Where AI can free financial advisors to spend more time on human relationships

The Behavioral Investor - paperback edition:https://link.amazon/B00hgkHGG

Daniel Crosby on X:

https://x.com/danielcrosby

Orion Behavioral Finance:

https://orion.com/behavioral-finance

Research discussed:

The heat of the moment: the effect of sexual arousal on sexual decision making

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.501

Chapters:

00:00 Daniel Crosby and The Behavioral Investor

04:51 Why winning funds can have losing investors

11:46 Risk tolerance, capacity, and composure

17:38 Stability portfolios and rules-based stock selection

23:06 Investing, gambling, and prediction markets

27:27 Recency bias and unrealistic return expectations

31:30 Addictive apps and changing investor behavior

35:48 Investor distractions and the media diet

40:51 Investment excitement, humility, and AI

45:00 What music reveals about consistency and experimentation

49:29 Where to find Daniel Crosby and the book

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ted Mortonson of Baird explains why conviction in the AI boom doesn't mean buying every dip in tech stocks.

He joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain what experienced technology investors watch before putting money back to work—and why he still sees AI as the most powerful technology cycle of his career.

The discussion moves from lessons of the dot-com bust to the companies Ted believes can capture AI's profits. They explore the importance of free cash flow, the financing demands of the data center buildout, and how large IPOs could force portfolio managers to sell existing holdings. Ted also shares his views on Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and SpaceX, before closing with lessons from his service as a naval aviator.

Topics covered:

- Why Ted Mortonson's institutional clients aren't rushing to buy the semiconductor dip

- What past tech cycles teach about taking profits, preserving capital, and waiting for selling to settle

- Why Ted Mortonson sees a stronger long-term AI opportunity than the dot-com cycle

- How geopolitics, energy costs, regulation, and investor sentiment shape technology investing

- Why free cash flow, engineering resources, and manufacturing scale matter for AI beneficiaries

- Financing the infrastructure buildout before enterprise adoption delivers returns

- How large IPOs and circular financing can create risks for existing shareholders

- Ted Mortonson's concerns about Apple and his outlook for Meta, Tesla, and SpaceX

- Optical networking, advanced chip architectures, and high-bandwidth memory

- Navy lessons on decisions under uncertainty, teamwork, and integrity

Chapters:

00:00 Ted Mortonson on the risks facing tech investors

05:42 Market sentiment and why his clients aren't buying yet

12:00 Dot-com lessons and the danger of buying every dip

16:17 Why Ted sees a different AI cycle

23:06 Which companies could capture AI's profits?

27:38 Regulation and financing the AI buildout

35:10 Can the market absorb massive AI IPOs?

39:30 Circular financing and the Tesla-SpaceX thesis

46:06 Apple, Meta, and competing AI strategies

54:19 SpaceX, advanced chips, and memory technology

58:26 Lessons from serving as a naval aviator

01:03:35 Closing thoughts

Ted Mortonson at Baird:

https://www.rwbaird.com/corporations-and-institutions/institutional-equities-research/team/ted-mortonson/

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money.

In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with.

From large cash reserves and paid-off mortgages to investments in their own businesses, their choices reflect family needs, career risk, and priorities that a model can struggle to capture.

The conversation also explores why low-cost index funds don't settle every investing question, how financial professionals think about bonds and alternatives, and what it means to compound relationships, knowledge, and opportunities alongside money.

How I Invest My Money Volume Two:
https://link.amazon/B0aVpNlfS

Topics covered:

Chapters:

00:00 How finance professionals invest their own money
05:35 Why investing extends beyond index funds
12:20 Connecting financial goals to portfolio choices
18:32 Why investors choose different stock and bond allocations
25:05 Cash reserves, career risk, and peace of mind
34:55 Paying off a mortgage: security versus opportunity cost
40:11 Alternatives, complexity, and the investment industry
44:40 Matt Zeigler on investing in more than money
52:22 Brian Portnoy on family, opportunity, and working with his son

Shaping Wealth:
https://www.shapingwealth.com

Follow Brian Portnoy on X:
https://x.com/bportnoy_

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners.

Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple

In this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construction shapes what investors own, why index additions can create hidden costs, and why he would consider buying a richly valued IPO before index funds have to buy it. The conversation also covers AI’s shift toward capital-intensive business models, GPU depreciation, intangible assets, and the importance of testing investment ideas rather than chasing impressive backtests.

Topics covered:

Research discussed:

⁠The Active Side of Indexing⁠

⁠Fundamental Growth⁠

Learn more about ⁠Syzygy Asset Management⁠.

Timestamps:

00:00 Rob Arnott on index concentration and AI’s future winners

12:13 What S&P 500 investors own and pay for

20:35 Why Rob Arnott would buy before index inclusion

25:41 Hidden index costs and fundamental membership rules30:37 Passive investing’s embedded decisions

36:40 Big Tech’s shift from asset light to capital intensive

42:41 GPU depreciation and economic obsolescence

47:03 R&D, intangible assets, and value investing

51:04 How durable are competitive moats?

59:01 Using AI in business and investment research

01:05:11 Performance chasing and the backtest trap

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠excessreturns.co⁠

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?

In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.

Topics covered:

Learn more about Tema ETFs.

Follow Paisley Nardini on X.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market
04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook
09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets
13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership
19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns
26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality
33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?
39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work
45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs
52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio
58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it.

Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk.

The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness.

Topics covered:

T. Rowe Price International Value Fund

https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps:

00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor
07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s
11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set
16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers
21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk
25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research
29:56 Comparing US and international valuations
35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets
40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea
44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks
49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy
54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds
59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.

In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.

We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.

Topics covered:

Follow Jim Paulsen:

Paulsen Perspectives
Jim Paulsen on X

Timestamps:

00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call
07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period
14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently
20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects
26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy
30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?
35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency
42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven
47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure
53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal
58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it.

Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts

In this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market.

Topics covered:

Find our guests:

Barry Ritholtz — The Big Picture - https://ritholtz.com
Ritholtz Wealth Management - https://www.ritholtzwealth.com
Barry Ritholtz on X - https://x.com/Ritholtz
Dave Nadig's work at etf.com - https://www.etf.com
Dave Nadig on X - https://x.com/DaveNadig

Timestamps:

00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question
05:14 AI concentration and market breadth
10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing
15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis
20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice?
25:49 Better client questions and better prompts
30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search
36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race
41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents
45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions
51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity
55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate
01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds
01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughts

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?

On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.

Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple

Topics covered:

⁠Chris Davis / Davis Funds⁠

⁠Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass⁠

Chapters:

00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits

06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk

12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives

19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson

30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?

40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users

45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing

55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle

01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI

01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor

Learn more about the ⁠Excess Returns podcast network⁠.

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change?

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to examine market breadth, rising Treasury yields, sector leadership and the signals that would change her outlook. She also explains why the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF holds roughly half its assets in equities at the time of the conversation, and walks through the charts for gold, oil and Bitcoin.

Topics covered:

Learn more about Fairlead Strategies.

Follow Katie Stockton on X.

Chapters:

00:00 The bull market and weakening breadth
06:02 Narrow leadership and small-cap weakness
13:43 Treasury yields, breakouts and resistance
18:56 Credit spreads and sector leadership
24:53 TACK positioning, semiconductors and international stocks
30:22 Gold, oil and Bitcoin: reading the trends
35:30 Bitcoin indicators and the BNAV strategy
39:47 Credit, volatility and tech: the year-end risk watch

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind AI, the case for diversifying beyond the largest stocks, and how Tom Maher finds businesses with improving fundamentals. We also discuss the effects of passive investing, opportunities in reshoring, and why knowing more about a company does not always lead to a better investment decision.

Topics covered:

Learn more about Hilton Capital Management.

Chapters:

00:00 Tom Maher's outlook: earnings, valuations and risk
05:26 Small-cap earnings and AI infrastructure spending
11:41 Defining small caps and why some companies stay small
16:45 Active management and business quality
22:03 Small-cap index quality and companies staying private
27:15 Combining stock selection with a macro view
32:58 Higher interest rates and portfolio decisions
37:04 Passive investing and ETF-driven stock moves
41:33 Finding stocks with improving fundamentals
51:13 Valuation, consistency and management quality
56:39 Reshoring and the industrial recovery
01:01:14 Research, profit-taking and investor expectations

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook.

In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case.

Topics covered:

Chapters:
00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution
04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending
08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis
13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource
18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending
24:10 AI returns and the impressive 493
29:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields
38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries
43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification
47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market
51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools
56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economy

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives?

On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption.

Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠

Topics covered:

Chapters:00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstacles

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Michael Baron of Baron Capital explains his case for AI beneficiaries beyond the biggest tech stocks, including software companies the market fears will be disrupted. He joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to discuss how competitive advantages, management quality, and a long investment horizon shape the firm's growth portfolios.

Baron Capital's co-president and portfolio manager walks through the firm's investments in Tesla and SpaceX, from vertical integration and autonomous driving to reusable rockets, Starlink, and the potential for AI infrastructure in space. He also explains why proprietary data may strengthen some software businesses, how the firm manages positions as winners grow, and what would make him sell. The conversation closes with lessons from Ron Baron on curiosity, primary research, and building conviction.

Topics covered:

Learn more about Baron Capital:
https://www.baroncapitalgroup.com/

Chapters:
00:00 Michael Baron on finding growth beyond technology
04:16 AI disruption and the opportunity in software
10:54 Tesla, Elon Musk, and vertical integration
18:33 Long-term valuation and key-person risk
23:28 SpaceX, Starlink, and AI infrastructure in space
34:11 Lessons from Ron Baron and the firm's future
40:08 Evaluating management and competitive advantages
47:11 Time as an edge and managing growing positions
54:11 When to trim a position and when to sell
58:11 Curiosity, primary research, and conviction

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses.

Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, why growth-maximizing bets can still be uncomfortable, and how uncertain probabilities make a case for betting less. From portfolio decisions to insurance and extended warranties, the goal is to build better intuition about how much risk to take.

Topics covered:

The essay behind this conversation:
After this post you will be sizing bets in your head
https://www.panoptica.com/after-this-post-you-will-be-sizing-bets-in-your-head/

Research discussed:
Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin
https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01427

Kris Abdelmessih's Moontower newsletter:
https://moontower.substack.com/

Moontower:
https://moontower.ai/

Kris Abdelmessih on X:
https://x.com/KrisAbdelmessih

Chapters:
00:00 Position sizing and the favorable coin-flip experiment
04:45 Why a good bet can produce bad outcomes
13:49 The Kelly Criterion formula explained
18:10 Adjusting your bankroll and accounting for the payoff
23:03 Applying Kelly to a self-insurance decision
30:25 Full Kelly, drawdowns, and reasons to bet less
34:59 Working backward from bet size and evaluating warranties
41:09 Volatility drag, uncertain odds, and the experiment's results
46:09 How much capital does your edge deserve?

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins.

Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions about CPI and explains how he is using AI to make rigorous data journalism more accessible.

Topics covered:

Explore Eric Pachman's research and interactive tools:
https://www.data4thepeople.com/

The Men Who Vanished: Testing Labor Market Displacement
https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanished

How do the government's grocery prices stack up against the real ones?
https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction and Data 4 The People's mission
09:20 Spotting unusual changes in the jobs data
18:27 Mapping America's changing labor force
27:00 Foreign-born workers, aging, and labor supply
34:51 Energy costs and the path to consumer inflation
47:49 Why your inflation experience differs from CPI
56:12 Personal inflation tools and testing grocery prices
1:02:36 AI, data journalism, and challenging your own bias
1:11:17 Where to find Eric Pachman's work and tools

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing risk, the urge to chase more, and the time a growing portfolio can cost you.

The conversation follows Jack Raines from SPAC warrants and market narratives to a broader question: how do you allocate money, time, and risk to build a life you actually want? They explore the limits of a trading edge, why cheap stocks can get cheaper, and how debt, career choices, and status shape the decisions investors make beyond their portfolios.

Young Money: A Field Guide to Wealth and Purpose in Your Twenties
https://amzn.to/4AtUsDoJack Raines' Young Money newsletter
https://www.youngmoney.co/

Jack Raines on X
https://twitter.com/Jack_Raines

Topics covered:

Timestamps:
00:00 Jack Raines on the lessons of losing money
04:57 Inside the SPAC trades and the $157,000 loss
15:16 Separating market hype from downside math
22:18 Building a life with portfolio principles
29:45 Retirement saving, trading obsession, and the cost of time
36:56 Debt, freedom, and the trap of waiting for someday
44:33 Venture investing: acting quickly and waiting patiently
51:03 Using status without making it the goal
56:08 The investing lesson experience has to teach

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore China's energy and open source advantages, opportunities in Chinese stocks, and how factor investing and machine learning can help build more diversified portfolios.

Rayliant Global Advisors
https://rayliant.com

Rayliant on X
https://twitter.com/rayliant

Topics covered:

Why Jason believes AI safety requires cooperation between the US and China

How Chinese AI models are closing the gap with US developers

China's electricity infrastructure and the competitive threat from open source AI

Where AI profits could accrue across hardware, energy, models and applications

How chip restrictions are encouraging China to develop domestic capabilities

Why retail trading creates opportunities and challenges for factor investors in China

Chinese technology companies, dividend-paying state enterprises and US-China trade

The AI spending arms race and the concentration risk facing S&P 500 investors

Momentum crashes, value cycles and how Rayliant uses machine learning to combine factors

Why advisors' greatest contribution may be helping clients find meaning in their wealth

Timestamps:

00:00 Jason Hsu on AI competition and safety
04:00 How close are Chinese AI models to the US?
08:25 China's energy advantage and open source economics
14:12 Who captures AI profits, and can China catch up in chips?
18:41 Chinese stocks, retail trading and speculation
24:01 China's overlooked opportunities and dividend stocks
28:05 US-China interdependence and the AI spending arms race
33:24 The AI concentration hiding in the S&P 500
37:25 Momentum crashes, value cycles and factor performance
41:54 Machine learning and building multifactor portfolios
48:46 Financial advisors, Jack Bogle and having enough
53:23 Why inefficient markets do not make alpha easy

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.

Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.

David Rosenberg on Twitter
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie

Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Topics covered:

Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity

Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation

How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending

How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds

Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors

Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia

His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities

How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis

Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case

What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness

Timestamps:

00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity
05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending
10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect
17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook
22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks
27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities
31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio
36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus
42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar
48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027
53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested
58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornness

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson.

Franklin Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com

Topics covered:

Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionals

How Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgment

Building personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goals

How blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costs

Tokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chain

Why companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocks

Private credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private markets

How mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentration

Balancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term future

The value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to work

Timestamps:

00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO
06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions
10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading
15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management
20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access
24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work
29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs
35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending
41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation
46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early
51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI tools

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.

⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts

Topics covered:

Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.

Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.

Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.

How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.

Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.

How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.

Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.

What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.

How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.

Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.

The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.

Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.

Timestamps:

00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim
05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings
09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading
16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs
20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?
26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks
31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears
36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street
41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds
47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning
51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity
58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correction

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks.

Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting.

Bob Pozen's website
https://www.bobpozen.com

Follow Bob Pozen on Twitter
https://x.com/Pozen

Research discussed:

Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experience
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120

Rating Without Market Discipline
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158

Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credit
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958

Topics covered:

What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's.

Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal.

Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat.

Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups.

How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets.

Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions.

How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans.

Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation.

Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment.

The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity.

Timestamps:

00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course
05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested
11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal
16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds
20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns
24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks
29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments
35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting
40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans
44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash
50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters
55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance
59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity tools

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.

The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.

High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bonds
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/

Janus Henderson Investors
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/

Topics covered:

Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevated

How the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond market

How AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cash

Why tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors take

The three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insurance

How duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's income

Why bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not trading

How Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative value

Why AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflation

How to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolio

Timestamps:

00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns
04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed
10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index
14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk
20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads
26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds
30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield
36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress
41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply
46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations
50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation
55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio
01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity risk

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets.

Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy.

Buy The Awesome Portfolio Book
https://amzn.to/3Tf3of7

Topics covered:

Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500

How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

Including home equity when measuring your overall asset allocation

Why volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisions

The life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining together

Why Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdowns

Index concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversification

The portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022

Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrency

Managing FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolio

Timestamps:

00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio
06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio
11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap
15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together
20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration
24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 2022
28:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 2022
34:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings
38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO
44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes
48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis
53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirement

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models.

Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts

Topics covered:

Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy families

How overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behavior

Why rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching caution

How recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulation

The risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage apps

Leveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protection

AI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehicles

How one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisons

Why less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resources

Baseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role model

Timestamps:

00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy
05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins
10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize
16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash
21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs
25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow
29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure?
34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball
38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping
43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music?
47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models
51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing them

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles.

Dan Niles on X
https://x.com/DanielTNiles

Niles Investment Management
https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com

Topics covered:

Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubble

The AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth, cloud revenue and operating margins

What the Situational Awareness unwind showed about leverage, forced selling and semiconductor volatility

Why hyperscaler AI revenue can accelerate even as free cash flow deteriorates

How data center opposition, electricity constraints and politics could slow the AI buildout

Where value may accrue across the AI stack and why Anthropic and Google could pressure OpenAI

Why China’s memory chip expansion could bring semiconductor cyclicality back faster than investors expect

How AI is reshaping software, including security, systems of record, gaming and usage-based pricing

Why the shift from free cash flow to debt financing matters for AI CapEx, Treasury yields and credit markets

Dan’s long-short investment process, Fed outlook, market risk framework and emphasis on downside protection

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:00 The signals Dan watches to know when the AI bubble is peaking
09:12 AI ROI, hyperscaler profits and the problem with negative free cash flow
14:19 Why data center politics could become a major risk to AI growth
21:28 Why semiconductors are still cyclical and China could change the supply picture
25:47 Why smart companies still get bubbles wrong and agentic AI could extend the cycle
30:43 Is software the next major casualty of AI disruption?
35:04 Why video games may be one of software’s safer AI categories
39:23 Can markets absorb the surge in AI debt and equity issuance?
45:28 Dan Niles’ long-short investment process and approach to downside protection
50:45 Why Dan thinks the Fed could raise rates in September
56:38 Why buy-and-hold can fail and downside protection matters

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money.

Subscribe on Spotify⁠

⁠Subscribe on Apple

Topics covered

Why credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaks

How the Fed's July rate decision changed the market narrative around inflation credibility

The Four Horsemen: insurance and shadow banking losses, capital crowding out, the Iran war and oil inflation, and a stretched consumer

Why insurer-funded private credit could become a systemic risk if fraud and losses reach major institutions

How government borrowing and AI data center financing could push long-term interest rates higher

Why fading fiscal stimulus, depleted savings and higher energy costs leave the consumer vulnerable

What financial repression means and how the Fed and Treasury could try to cap rates and prevent major losses

Why AI investment may be the key source of US economic growth if consumer activity stalls

How Perscient tracks narrative regimes, virality and shifts in common knowledge across markets

Why gold can act as an inverse measure of trust in central banks and how Ben is positioning around the risks

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: Credibility is a Teacup
04:00 How the July Fed decision damaged inflation credibility
08:21 The Four Horsemen that could threaten the financial system
14:00 Oil inflation, the Iran war and a stretched consumer
18:39 What financial repression means
23:20 How the Fed and Treasury could try to prevent a systemic crisis
28:21 Why AI CapEx may be the only major source of GDP growth
35:00 When lost Fed credibility became a confirmed market narrative
39:34 Narrative stock versus flow and how bursts can move prices
44:00 The return of bearish AI CapEx narratives
48:09 Why private credit may be easier to can-kick than the 2008 crisis

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent.

Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠

Topics covered

Why ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisions

Kevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheap

Why seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protection

Aahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent target

Why demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflation

How oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hike

Ben Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has responded

The four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curve

Brent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fear

Nvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stock

Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinking

Timestamps

00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency

07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced

11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects

16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced

20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem

25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure

33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed

40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore

44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole

49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax

53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs

57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity

01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI world

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.

Kevin Muir on X
https://x.com/kevinmuir

The MacroTourist
https://themacrotourist.com

Topics covered

Why stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yields

How Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation Twist

How replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal Reserve

Why the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signals

Jim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortized

Why stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutions

How daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloff

Why Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signals

Why platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychology

What 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertainty

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market
10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization
18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"
22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings
27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure
32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff
36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again
41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade
46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous
51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem
55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit
59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment
01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to see

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech.

Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple

Topics covered:

Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now clogged

How leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returns

What publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discounts

How private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technology

Why AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantages

How ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatch

What AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of work

Why the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycle

Why traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S.

How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small caps

How R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech value

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math
09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade
13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat
17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending
23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected
30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk
34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI
38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors
44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value
51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest
55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and Japan

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades.

Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street
https://amzn.to/4hU28ImTopics covered

How an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family, legacy and the scarcity of time

How Ian turned $20,000 into $120,000, then watched it fall to $8,000, and why that early win permanently shaped his risk tolerance

Ian's four-part survival framework: recession-resistant growth, strong balance sheets, conservative valuation and signs of intelligent fanaticism

Why balance-sheet strength is not just defensive and can let great companies act aggressively when competitors are forced to retreat

Why Ian targets roughly a 25 percent CAGR without relying on multiple expansion

The Judas goat lesson, talking your book on social media and why investors still have to do their own work

Why comparing short-term returns can corrupt an investing process and why Ian measures himself against the S&P 500 over a 10-year horizon

The five core stock-picking skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling and holding, plus why selling matters especially in microcaps

Why position sizing should account for initial excitement, and why Ian now starts much smaller than he did earlier in his career

Active patience, expanding your circle of competence and the difference between good, great and GOAT stock pickers

Why temperament evolves with experience, why leverage can destroy otherwise good investing, and why the best investors keep sharpening their edge

Why Ian is willing to back repeat-winner management teams before every piece of the business is fully in place

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
06:58 The $20,000 to $120,000 win and 90 percent loss
11:02 Ian Cassel's four-part survival framework
15:02 Why strong balance sheets create offensive optionality
19:03 The Judas goat and social media stock promotion
23:18 Why comparison is the enemy for stock pickers
29:39 The five core stock-picking skills
34:43 Active patience and knowing what you are looking for
39:28 Good, great and GOAT stock pickers
47:02 How investor temperament evolves over time
52:03 Leverage, situational awareness and surviving to compound
57:24 Betting on repeat-winner management before the numbers arrive

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect.

Topics covered:

Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycle

The return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bonds

Why volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadening

Immigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll data

Federal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentals

How the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital markets

Corporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergence

Kevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertainty

Attitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signal

The AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum trade

Margin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economy

S&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycle

Timestamps:

00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle
05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing
11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate
17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix
22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP
27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 2022
32:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations
37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum
41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be
45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap
50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market
55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues
60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scams

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.

Follow First Principles on Spotify⁠

⁠Follow First Principles of Apple Podcasts

Topics covered

Why rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock prices

Why Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisis

The "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset prices

How the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiums

Why Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shift

How Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditions

Why the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuance

Andy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROI

Why capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycle

How Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projects

The "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economy

What Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supply

Timestamps

00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together
00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough
00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates
00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy
00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation
00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy
00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift
00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run
00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure
00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth
00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth
00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stress

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.

Bob Robotti on X
https://x.com/BobRobotti

Robotti & Company
https://www.robotti.com

Topics covered

How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power

Why his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demand

How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets

Why North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle

Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples

Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companies

How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers

Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity

Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor

Why he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios

The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early

Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power
08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm
13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy
17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies
22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing
26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent
31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers
36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again
40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments
44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside
48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity
55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early
01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyone

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts

Topics Covered

Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve

Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending

Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness

How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears

Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields

How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag

Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s

How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked

Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation

The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation

Timestamps

00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears
04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs
09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data
13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent
17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes
22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag
26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage
30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like
34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending
39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced
44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing
48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning
52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com
57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and tech

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio.

Topics covered

Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff

Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels

What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital

Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand

Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue

Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain

How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout

Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom

Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes

AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth

How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection

Timestamps

00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison
04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway
12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI
17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value
21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge
28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt
36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical?
41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies
46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement
51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution
56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking framework

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market.

Topics covered

Why the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike

What slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflation

How AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economy

Why the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubble

How credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities do

What real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for gold

Why Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term trade

Why non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunity

How AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilities

Why CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. market

Why diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it most

What Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecasts

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction
08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike
16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation
25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks
36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks
41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector
48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration
54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus
1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisis

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction.

Variant Perception
https://www.variantperception.com/

Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF
https://etf.variantperception.com/

Topics covered

How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data

Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable

How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator

Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience

How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets

Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle

What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops

How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets

What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers

Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation

How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook

How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research

How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk

Timestamps

00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators
04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working
09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator
13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient
17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles?
21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions
26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red
30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical?
36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike
42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve
46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy
51:11 How AI is changing investment research
55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errors

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis.

Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making.

Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders
https://amzn.to/4h9bi3e

Brent Donnelly on X
https://x.com/donnelly_brent

Spectra Markets
https://www.spectramarkets.com

Topics covered:

Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading success

How traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video games

Why profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy them

How changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick pony

Why mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good idea

How trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken process

Why the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gains

Why rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligence

How Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation bias

The difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianism

Why avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading career

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box
04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas
08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades
12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge
16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon
21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value
25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning
29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders
33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating
37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information
41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge
45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore
50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control
55:00 Choosing family and health over markets
59:00 Why your first thought may not be your own

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance.

Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠

Topics covered

Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks

Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth

Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up

Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending

How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses

Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention

What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows

How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom

Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins

Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility

Timestamps

00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his team at Perscient have developed a unique system for measuring how those narratives emerge, spread and change.

In each episode, Ben and Matt Zeigler will examine the major issues facing investors through this narrative lens, helping listeners better understand the stories driving markets and what they could mean for the economy, policy and investment outcomes.

We have included this first episode in the Excess Returns feed. To continue receiving new episodes, subscribe to the Why Am I Reading This Now? podcast on all major podcast platforms using the links below.

Subscribe on Spotify

Subscribe on Apple

Topics covered

Timestamps

00:00 Introducing Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt
04:00 How debt, equity issuance and private credit are financing AI CapEx
08:06 Data center electricity demand and the energy crowding-out problem
13:21 Why an AI bailout may become politically inevitable
17:30 Oil shifts from a temporary shortage to a structural supply reduction
22:00 The bearish AI narrative returns as political opposition grows
26:00 Government ownership, price controls and the AI competition with China

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets.

Rupert Mitchell on X
https://x.com/SquirrelMacro

Blind Squirrel Macro
https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Topics covered

Why the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truth

How the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio

Why positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bonds

How AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. markets

Why Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadens

How China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore services

What a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assets

Why deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activism

The opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governance

Why Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setup

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals
08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era
13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade
17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating
22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike
30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities
34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts
38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity
43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage
49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value
53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the Squirrel

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.

They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett’s warning that the market’s casino can overwhelm its cathedral.

The Warren Buffett Portfolio – 25th Anniversary Edition
https://amzn.to/3TVXoru

Robert Hagstrom on X
https://x.com/RobertGHagstrom

Equity Compass
https://www.equitycompass.com/

Topics covered

Why Markowitz’s definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theory

Why Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing risk

What Hagstrom’s study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformance

The difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexing

How benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active management

What loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behavior

Why Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for markets

Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculation

The El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop working

Why options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casino

How to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earnings

Why permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investing

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance
11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration
17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors
22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory
26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets
32:28 Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor
37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction
42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts
46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike
51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs
56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics
01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focus investing
01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakes

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence and the behavioral challenge of staying invested for the long term. He also breaks down Section 351 ETF exchanges, including how appreciated portfolios can move into an ETF without an immediate taxable sale, why direct-indexing portfolios are a major use case and how the ETF wrapper is reshaping asset management.

Wes Gray on X
https://x.com/alphaarchitect

Alpha Architect
https://alphaarchitect.com

ETF Architect
https://etfarchitect.com

Long-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?
https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf

Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor
https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdf

Topics covered

Why high valuations may lower long-term expected returns without providing a reliable market-timing signal

How S&P 500 concentration creates a major large-cap, quality and growth factor bet

Why earnings and operating income may be better value metrics than book-to-market in an intangible economy

Why valuation may matter more than company size for long-only value investors

How unprofitable companies and low-quality stocks can distort small-cap value indexes

Whether AI has changed the historical relationship between growth and value investing

How AI may eliminate short-term trading edges while leaving long-horizon opportunities intact

Why even an investor with perfect foresight could suffer severe drawdowns and get fired

How passive investing flows may affect market prices and factor returns

How Section 351 exchanges can solve problems created by appreciated SMAs, tax-loss harvesting and direct indexing

The 25/50 diversification rules, cost-basis transfer and tax-deferral mechanics of ETF conversions

Why assets continue moving from mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts into ETFs

Why enduring underperformance may be necessary to earn higher long-term returns

Timestamps

00:00 Alpha Architect, ETF Architect and building an ETF platform
04:00 Can factor investors time a market bubble?
08:03 Intangible assets and the problems with book-to-market
13:42 The quality problem inside small-cap value indexes
18:18 Has technology changed the growth-versus-value equation?
23:25 Can AI create lasting investment alpha?
27:42 Are investors behaving better today?
34:39 How Section 351 ETF exchanges work
39:48 The diversification rules for tax-deferred ETF conversions
44:34 How cost basis and deferred taxes carry into the ETF
49:07 Mutual fund, hedge fund and SMA conversions
54:13 Why investors should embrace underperformance

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.

Aahan Menon on X
https://x.com/AahanPrometheus

Prometheus Research
https://www.prometheus-macro.com

Topics covered

Why geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficult

What Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growth

Why AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economy

How household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profits

Why the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock prices

How oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest rates

Why demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflation

How technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicators

The value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro data

What macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversification

Timestamps

00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets
05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth
09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk
13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits
17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility
22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks
27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working
32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle
37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns
42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories
47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns
51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities
56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversify

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage.

The State of the AI Economy
https://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdf

Why AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Line
https://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-line

Azeem Azhar on X
https://x.com/azeem

Exponential View
https://www.exponentialview.co/

Topics Covered

The size and growth rate of real generative AI demand

How the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applications

Why memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecks

Open-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assurance

Vertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applications

How AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providers

Why AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesign

What investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spending

Forward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-in

Which intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundant

Timestamps

00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom
06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack
10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition
15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck
20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI
24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack
28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus?
33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company
37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption
44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies?
49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy?
54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects?
59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable
01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education
01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideas

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:

* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble

* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index

* Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning

* How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts

* Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples

* Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them

* How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment

* Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken

* Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put

* How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street

* Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficit

Timestamps:

00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks

04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market

08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy

13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top

18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble

23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts

27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers

31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth

36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter

40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?

44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse

48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality

52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlooking

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.

He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.

Jack Schwager on X
https://x.com/jackschwager

Market Wizards: The Next Generation
https://amzn.to/4psEOmH

Topics covered

How video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of traders

How Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track records

Why return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratio

Lukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalability

Simon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 million

How breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary success

Kristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowups

Phil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk control

Rick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing month

Why financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solve

Lance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positions

What traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human nature

Timestamps

00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation
04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed
09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns
14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million
18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules
22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million
28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies
32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff
37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record
41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?
45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary
49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders
53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment
57:58 What the next generation of trading may look like

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.

Eric Pachman on X
https://x.com/EricPachman

Data 4 The People
https://www.data4thepeople.com/

Main topics covered

Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories

Why unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age Americans

The decline in participation among older workers and men

How healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growth

Why Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending risk

What occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare pay

The differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleading

How crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy prices

Why falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retail

What the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holders

How Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research tools

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis
11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy
18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth
24:18 Why inflation is moving higher
30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil
36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem
44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most
48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility
54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission
59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data
01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The People

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.

Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market.

Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsen

Paulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/

Main topics covered

• Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession
• What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market
• Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth
• How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions
• Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak
• The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy
• What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency
• Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline
• Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership
• Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market
• How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower
• Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlook

Timestamps

00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction
04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking
08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating
13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy
17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth
21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street
25:54 How today’s AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble
30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops
34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations
39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum
43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks
47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3%
51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation
55:45 America’s long-term growth challenge and what could change it

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.

Katie Stockton on X
https://x.com/StocktonKatie

Fairlead Strategies
https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/

Fairlead Funds
https://www.fairleadfunds.com/

Main topics covered

Why the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum loss

How Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillator

Why the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsaw

What the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadership

How investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage risk

Why the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent Seven

The difference between market breadth and market leadership

Why sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotech

How sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timing

How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and gold

What the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S.

Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environment

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum
05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline
08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important
12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership
16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges
20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness
23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership
28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning
32:58 Why the market is in a technical void
36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors
40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns
46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S.
50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk
52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors now

Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market concentration, high valuations, IPO hype, factor investing and fixed income tax drag. We discuss why bubbles are hard to identify in real time, why diversification still matters, how valuation spreads shape expected returns, what AI capex does and does not tell us, and how investors can think about taxable bonds more efficiently.

Longview Research Partners
https://longviewresearchpartners.com/

Main topics covered

Why evidence-based investing matters during bubble-like markets

The emotional reality of holding risk assets through painful periods

How to think about market concentration without jumping straight to bubble calls

Why global diversification changes the mega-cap dominance story

What high market valuations mean for financial planning and expected returns

Why wide valuation spreads may create a better setup for value stocks

What factor research says about AI capex and corporate investment

How Longview builds a diversified factor strategy around discount rates

Why implementation, trading flexibility and scale matter in factor investing

The small cap premium debate, IPOs, fallen angels and survivorship bias

Why AI may increase data mining risk in quantitative investing

How fixed income tax drag can quietly reduce after-tax returns

Timestamps

00:00 Why painful markets create future return premiums
04:00 Market concentration, AI winners and the value of diversification
09:40 How high valuations should influence financial planning
13:12 Why wide valuation spreads matter for value investors
14:01 What factor research says about AI capex
16:20 How Longview's EBI strategy looks for higher discount rates
18:58 Why Longview starts with the market and then tilts
21:45 Comparing 1999, 2008 and today through expected returns
24:33 Intangible assets, price-to-book and the limits of accounting adjustments
28:32 SpaceX, IPOs and how indexes handle new mega-cap companies
33:21 Why implementation and trading flexibility can affect returns
36:17 Passive flows, price elasticity and market price discovery
39:35 The small cap premium, IPOs and fallen angels
42:21 Are today's small caps lower quality than history?
46:01 Why AI may not uncover the next great factor premium
48:04 Why fixed income may be the most inefficient part of taxable portfolios
51:29 How LVIG tries to convert bond income into deferred capital appreciation
52:50 The after-tax return opportunity from tax deferral
54:58 Which investors may benefit most from tax-efficient fixed income
56:26 Where to learn more about Matt Zenz and Longview

Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the high-end consumer and the broader economy. We discuss fixed income markets, Fed policy, inflation, private credit, the national debt, business cycle risk and how investors should think about bonds after the end of the zero-rate era.

Aristotle Pacific
https://www.aristotlepacific.com/

Main topics covered

Why AI CapEx has become one of the biggest drivers of the US economy and stock market

How the high-end consumer, asset prices and AI spending have created a circular market setup

Why today’s fixed income market is very different from the zero-rate era

How bonds can serve as income, ballast and portfolio protection in the current environment

Why the Fed may care more about inflation expectations than markets expect

The Fed’s overlooked third mandate and what moderate long-term interest rates mean

How Kevin Warsh could change the Fed’s approach to forward guidance, inflation and the balance sheet

Why the business cycle is not dead, even if Fed intervention has lengthened it

What investors should understand about the national debt, higher rates and inflation

Why private credit is useful but not automatically better than public credit

How flexible fixed income investing can find opportunities across credit, securitized markets and capital structures

Why sentiment, not just fundamentals, drives market prices

Timestamps

00:00 AI CapEx, the stock market and the fragile economic loop
04:03 Why fixed income markets look different after zero rates
08:45 Does the Fed still have investors’ backs?
13:43 Are AI companies using dangerous forms of financing?
18:54 Why starting yields change the stock bond hedge
23:42 The Fed’s overlooked third mandate
29:03 Why inflation expectation stability may drive Fed policy
33:11 How Kevin Warsh may change the Fed regime
38:46 What a smaller Fed balance sheet could mean for asset prices
43:24 The national debt, higher rates and inflation
50:25 Why fixed income should be managed across silos
55:08 The one lesson for the average investor

Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market.

We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500.

Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market
https://amzn.to/4f1H5Aw

Meb Faber on X
https://x.com/MebFaber

Main topics covered

Why America can be viewed as the ultimate venture capital success story

How joint stock companies, risk-taking and ownership helped shape the U.S. economy

Why studying 250 years of market history changes how investors think about volatility

The long-term case for stocks and why the time horizon matters so much

Why bear markets are a natural part of capitalism and long-term compounding

How U.S. market dominance happened and why it was not preordained

Why expensive valuations, low dividend yields and new supply may matter today

The role of dividends, buybacks, shareholder yield and reinvestment in long-term returns

Why diversification across global stocks, bonds and real assets can help investors stay invested

What gold, REITs and foreign stocks teach us about starting points and narratives

Why early investing, child investment accounts and compounding can change investor behavior

How creative destruction reshapes sectors, companies and the market leaders of each era

Why Meb remains optimistic about America while still cautious on parts of the U.S. market

Timestamps

00:00 Why America was not guaranteed to become the market winner
01:15 Meb Faber on writing Investing in America
02:25 America as the ultimate venture capital success story
06:22 How a culture of ownership helped the U.S. stock market compound
09:19 Why studying 250 years of market history matters
12:00 Why ownership is the core investing lesson
15:14 Bear markets, recessions and the danger of recent history
18:16 Why U.S. stocks beat the rest of the world by so much
22:20 Lessons from financial history that surprised Meb
27:05 Why stocks can lose for long periods and bonds can win
30:00 Why investors need to get used to being in a drawdown
33:24 Dividends, buybacks and the importance of reinvestment
37:27 Why gold and REITs beat the S&P 500 after 2000
40:55 How balanced portfolios survive different market regimes
43:03 The power of starting early and letting compounding work
48:16 Why global diversification matters outside the U.S.
50:40 Creative destruction, sector change and market leadership
55:20 Why Meb is still optimistic about investing in America
59:33 Where to find the book, Cambria and Meb online

In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk.

Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠

Main topics covered

Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month

How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading

Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks

Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies

The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter

Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust

Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks

Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks

How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement

Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality

Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone

What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review
03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening
07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis
10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market
13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment
17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble?
20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him
23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected
29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX
33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset
38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge
42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing
48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation
55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles
59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors
01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode

No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.

Warren Pies on X
https://x.com/WarrenPies

3Fourteen Research
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

Caliban
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban

Main topics covered

Which bearish AI arguments actually matter for investors

Why regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concern

How data center spending is crowding out housing investment

Why the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor market

What GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demand

Why open source AI is not yet replacing frontier models

How token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usage

Why semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycle

How semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicals

Why Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026

What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro risk

Why 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating risk

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth?
04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk
07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment
11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data
13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests
16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements
21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand
27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI
30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip
34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses?
38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market
42:15 What the oil shock means now
45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks
47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic?
50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities
54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen Research

Ritavan joins Excess Returns to explain The System Gambit, a new framework for understanding competitive advantage, business strategy, AI disruption and long-term compounding. We discuss why traditional moat checklists can miss the real source of value, how companies can build systems competitors cannot copy, and what investors should look for when AI changes the game.

The System Gambit
https://amzn.to/4b0J32I

Main topics covered

Why the traditional moat checklist can fail investors

The three requirements for a true System Gambit

How investors can evaluate business strategy from the outside

Why code is not always the moat in the age of AI

What history can teach investors about asymmetry and leverage

Why AI adoption is not the same as AI value creation

The difference between moving fast and understanding the game

Lessons from Nokia, ASML, Amazon and Walmart

How intangible investment and J curves can hide long-term value

Why the best companies build compounding systems competitors cannot copy

How investors can identify companies changing the game rather than optimizing the old one

Timestamps

00:00 Opening preview and introduction

04:00 The three ingredients of a System Gambit

08:49 Why code is not the moat in AI software

13:00 Skanderbeg and changing the rules of the game

17:00 Good moats, good narratives and asymmetric advantage

22:31 Microscope vs telescope as a lesson for AI

28:35 AI winners, losers and high dispersion markets

32:08 Signal quality, bottlenecks and why AI adoption is not enough

36:00 Nokia, agility and the failure to build a causal model

40:15 Why understanding the game beats speed

44:00 Intangible investment, the J curve and ASML's hidden edge

49:54 The contrarian AI thesis behind The System Gambit

54:00 How to recognize a real System Gambit

58:27 Amazon, Walmart and multi-paradigm compounding

1:03:00 Prime, FBA and platform leverage

1:07:00 Walmart's answer to Amazon

1:11:06 Closing thoughts and where to find Ritavan

On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades.

⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple⁠

The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Game⁠

https://amzn.to/44BMXeJ⁠

Main topics covered

Why SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor discipline

How Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winner

Why great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong price

The danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysis

Why many AI features may not create real customer value

What the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeouts

Why investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptional

How to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impact

Why capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scale

How to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trust

Why the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the way

What rational exuberance might look like for long-term investors

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing

04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much

08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work

12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge

16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real

21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature

25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations

29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights

34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation

38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies

43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market

47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns

52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance

56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game

Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supply from IPOs, GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts, international stocks, benchmark-free allocation and what private equity investors may be missing.

7 YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECAST

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2026_gmo7yearassetclassforecast/

WHAT BARBARIANS LIKE TO TAKE PRIVATE

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-what-barbarians-like-to-take-private_gmoquarterlyletter/

THE CASE FOR LIQUID ALTERNATIVES

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-case-for-liquid-alternatives-in-todays-environment_insights/

Main topics covered

Why GMO sees the AI boom as a bubble investors may be able to navigate

The difference between easy bubbles and hard bubbles in portfolio construction

Lessons from the internet bubble, the global financial crisis and the 2021 duration bubble

Why today’s market may be an earnings bubble, not just a valuation bubble

How AI data center spending affects corporate profits before depreciation shows up

Why transformational technologies do not always reward the companies building them

The risk of circular financing, debt-funded AI spending and increasingly creative deal structures

How IPOs, share issuance and market supply can pressure stock returns

GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts and why international stocks look more attractive than U.S. stocks

Why private equity portfolios may contain large hidden bets on small, lower-quality companies

Timestamps

00:00 AI, earnings bubbles and market supply
00:58 Why Ben Inker thinks the AI bubble may be easier to navigate
02:43 What makes a bubble easy or hard for investors
08:12 Comparing risk and return in 2000, 2007, 2021 and today
14:42 Why optimizers and real clients see risk differently
17:02 What GMO learned from managing through past bubbles
19:08 How today compares to the 2000 internet bubble
20:00 Why this may be an earnings bubble
23:34 Semiconductors, memory makers and the capital cycle
25:00 How AI CapEx compares to railroads, electricity and fiber optics
29:33 Debt, circular financing and strange AI deals
34:32 Why massive stock issuance could challenge the market
40:00 How GMO builds seven-year asset class return forecasts
41:40 Why interest rates change fair value for stocks and bonds
45:32 Why international, value and small-cap stocks look more attractive
49:06 The case for a benchmark-free portfolio
55:21 What 700 leveraged buyouts reveal about private equity
01:02:00 How public portfolios can offset private equity risks
01:03:37 Why investors need to understand what they are paid for
01:08:27 Closing thoughts

Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China and India, the impact of the dollar, quality investing, valuation, and how active investors can think about opportunity in a world shaped by AI disruption and geopolitical change.

William Blair Investment Management
https://im.williamblair.com/

The Problem With Quality
https://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-quality

Topics covered:

Why emerging markets are not one single trade

How AI capex is reshaping EM indexes and performance

Why Korea, Taiwan and China are central to the AI supply chain

The role of the US dollar in emerging market returns

Why EM index concentration is higher than many investors realize

What past innovation cycles can teach us about the AI buildout

How AI is changing the definition of quality investing

Why China’s manufacturing strength creates both opportunity and risk

The long-term case for India despite high valuations

How William Blair evaluates quality, trajectory and underappreciation

Why valuation in emerging markets requires more than simple multiples

The one investing lesson Ian Smith would teach the average investor

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

04:10 Why emerging markets are not one market

08:37 Why EM is underrepresented in global indexes

13:16 How the dollar impacts emerging market returns

18:37 AI capex, picks and shovels, and EM supply chains

24:17 How William Blair is using AI in the investment process

28:30 Why quality and growth have decoupled in emerging markets

33:19 Why AI disruption creates opportunity for active managers

37:30 China’s overcapacity, competition and global manufacturing edge

42:00 India’s long-term growth drivers and valuation challenge

47:00 Finding underappreciated quality in EM stocks

52:01 Deglobalization, China and the future of global trade

56:09 The one lesson Ian Smith would teach investors

Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.

Tobias Carlisle on X
https://x.com/Greenbackd

Acquirers Funds
https://acquirersfunds.com/

Topics covered:

Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocks

The case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycle

Why equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shift

Whether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumers

The parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildouts

How AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investment

What the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychology

Why base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platforms

How disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industries

The energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matter

How Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEP

Why quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costs

Timestamps:

00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers
04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns
08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal
14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms
19:47 Who gets the profits from AI?
23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race
28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply
31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates
35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?
36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles
41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade
45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions
47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios
54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing

Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to break down how to value SpaceX, AI companies, intangible assets, and the future of value investing.

We discuss why big markets do not automatically create big value, how AI CapEx is changing the character of major technology companies, and why the best investment stories still have to connect to the numbers.

Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple

Topics covered:

Valuing SpaceX after its IPO and why price matters even for great companies

How Starlink, space launch, and xAI fit into SpaceX’s valuation story

Why total addressable market can mislead investors in AI and other disruptive industries

The problem with AI unit economics, data centers, power, water, and reinvestment needs

Why growth can destroy value when margins and returns on capital are weak

How intangible assets, R&D, future growth, and narratives should show up in valuation

The Big Market Delusion and how overconfidence drives boom and bust cycles

Why AI CapEx is different from the dot-com boom and could create broader risks

How AI is changing the character of the Magnificent Seven and semiconductor companies

Why value investing became rigid, ritualistic, and righteous, and how it can evolve

Timestamps:

00:00 Why great companies can still be bad investments

01:03 Introducing Aswath Damodaran and The Intangible Economy

01:49 SpaceX IPO, Starlink, xAI, and the challenge of valuing uncertainty

05:31 Why Starlink became the core of SpaceX’s current revenue

10:31 How Damodaran valued SpaceX across launch, connectivity, and AI

14:07 Why AI’s huge market may still have difficult unit economics

17:10 The tension between SpaceX competing in AI and renting data centers to competitors

20:00 Why valuation should use distributions instead of false precision

22:39 How stories and numbers work together in valuation

26:45 Why investors confuse promises, potential, and businesses

30:49 The Big Market Delusion and overconfidence in AI investing

33:02 Why the AI CapEx boom is different from the dot-com bubble

35:17 How AI infrastructure is changing the Magnificent Seven

38:36 Nvidia, Micron, semiconductors, and the risk of peak cycle earnings

41:00 Why the biggest AI market stories could be scary for society

43:37 AI disruption, labor markets, and the speed of technological change

46:30 Measuring which jobs and companies are most exposed to AI automation

49:00 Why AI cost structure may look more like Spotify than software

51:13 The unresolved business model questions for LLMs and AI agents

52:29 Why traditional value investing lost its edge

56:03 Passive investing, book value, and the blame game in value investing

58:13 Why rigid value investing is vulnerable to AI disruption

01:00:58 How value investing can adapt to intangible assets and uncertainty

01:02:21 Why any company can be a good investment at the right price

01:04:57 Why investing mistakes and track records are harder to judge than they look

In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble.

Follow First Principles on Spotify

Follow First Principles of Apple Podcasts

Topics covered:

Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public markets

How Andy evaluates whether the SpaceX IPO worked

Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher after pricing

The shift from stock buybacks to new equity issuance

Why AI CapEx is changing the supply and demand for shares

How hyperscaler spending is being funded through cash, bonds, and stock

The economic test for whether AI investment pays off

Disinflationary productivity growth versus labor displacement

Why the current economy is still supported by consumption

The role of wealth effects and consumer dissaving

Why falling oil prices may not eliminate inflation pressure

What Andy is watching in Fed policy, tariffs, AI CapEx, and equity issuance

How Kevin Warsh could approach rates, QT, and the Fed balance sheet

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and key themes
04:18 How Andy reads the SpaceX IPO
08:27 Why underwriters and regulators want IPOs to work
13:00 Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher
17:05 From stock buybacks to new equity supply
21:06 The 600 to 700 billion dollar shift in share supply
26:42 The economic test for AI tokens
32:09 Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth?
38:10 Is AI CapEx holding up the economy?
41:00 Wealth effects, dissaving, and the consumer
45:52 Oil prices, war, and inflation
49:07 Jalen Brunson, incentives, and long-term value
52:00 Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer
55:36 Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed balance sheet
58:42 Closing thoughts

No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts

Topics covered:

Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading

How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks

Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate

The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading

How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX

Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower

What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500

Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window

How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm

Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress

The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX

How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility

Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500

How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P

What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction

Timestamps:

00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup
05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO
07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand
12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals
17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX
22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze
28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration
33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency
37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm
41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels
46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress
50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup
57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone
58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO
01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than the headline data suggests.

Michael Green Twitter
https://x.com/profplum99

Simplify Asset Management
https://www.simplify.us/

Topics covered:

Why the SpaceX IPO has turned passive investing into a mainstream market structure debate

How index committees and passive flows can influence individual stocks

Why low float, Nasdaq demand and passive buying could create unusual IPO dynamics

How new AI-related equity issuance could change the supply-demand balance in the stock market

The research behind passive flows, market impact and cap-weight concentration

Why Mike thinks passive buying explains more of mega-cap outperformance than AI fundamentals

The circular financing risk in AI, including Nvidia, CoreWeave, Google and Anthropic

Why buy-the-dip flows, ETFs, CTAs and vol control funds matter for market direction

How headline economic data can miss household stress, second jobs and lost purchasing power

What Mike is watching to see whether the AI trade and market narrative are starting to break

Why AI may be hugely valuable to consumers before it creates major business productivity gains

How companies may eventually redesign business models around AI rather than simply automate tasks

Why SpaceX wealth creation could seed the next generation of competitors

How inflation, gasoline prices, low savings and a K-shaped economy are affecting consumers

Timestamps:

00:00 Passive indices, AI profits and why this market feels different
04:07 Why SpaceX changed the passive investing debate
08:01 The research behind passive flows and market impact
12:16 Why Mike thinks passive flows explain mega-cap strength
16:18 ETF flows, buy-the-dip behavior and bubble dynamics
20:28 Why economic data can miss household stress
25:13 Bubble warnings, CAPE and what investors may be ignoring
29:17 AI as a consumer advice engine versus a productivity revolution
33:29 How businesses may redesign themselves around AI
37:51 Why IPO wealth may create the next generation of competitors
42:06 Mike Green’s upcoming book on passive investing and market structure

AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector.

Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investmentshttps://amzn.to/4v8L7OfVanguard Megatrends Research Hubhttps://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html

Topics Covered:

AI as a potential general purpose technology
Why long-term megatrends can affect short-term market returns
The four forces shaping the next decade: technology, demographics, deficits and globalization
Why Vanguard believes AI could lift U.S. growth above consensus
How AI could offset aging demographics and rising debt
Why great technology cycles often include major stock market drawdowns
The difference between AI automation, augmentation and new industry creation
Why the next AI winners may be in healthcare, financial services and other service industries
The risk that AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate the outlook
How tariffs, oil prices and AI investment interact in the macro outlook
What AI could mean for 60/40 portfolios, value stocks, fixed income and international markets
Joe Davis’ lesson for average investors: the power of compounding

Timestamps:

00:00 Why every great technology eventually faces a market drawdown
04:28 The four megatrends shaping the economy
08:56 How megatrends explain short-term S&P 500 moves
13:22 Why AI may be in the 1996 or 1997 stage
18:29 Where the next AI winners could emerge
21:44 AI, fiscal deficits and the danger of kicking the can
26:17 Why 2% growth and 2% inflation may be unlikely
30:31 How to tell if AI augmentation is really working
33:19 AI, globalization and which countries could benefit
38:14 Why investors need a multi-factor macro scorecard
41:23 What AI means for the 60/40 portfolio
44:12 Joe Davis on investing, compounding and Vanguard’s megatrends research

On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.

They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure.

Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠

⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts

Dave Nadig
https://x.com/davenadig

Cameron Dawson
https://x.com/CameronDawson

Topics Covered:

Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of trading

How 100 times sales, no earnings and a $1.75 trillion valuation change the discussion

Why pre-IPO access, lockups, fees and vehicle structure matter for investors

How Palantir and Tesla frame the debate over extreme growth stock valuations

Why SpaceX could create unusual supply and demand pressure in the public market

How options trading, Nasdaq 100 inclusion and accelerated index rules could affect price discovery

Why free float matters and how a 4 percent float could become a 12 percent index adjustment

How much passive demand might chase SpaceX shares after the IPO

What the bubble triangle says about technology, speculation, money and credit

Why real earnings do not disprove a technology-driven bubble

How liquidity, private credit gates, IPO supply and buybacks could shape the next phase of the market

Why advisors need to help clients think through sizing, exit plans and safe access

Peak season travel, TikTok monoculture, Ocean City, Coheed and Cambria, and the lost art of CDs and mixtapes

Timestamps:

00:00 Why the first 30 days could be chaotic

04:00 Why everyone is talking about the SpaceX IPO

09:23 The market structure problem behind SpaceX

13:00 Options trading, small indexes and forced buying

17:18 How much passive demand could chase SpaceX

21:27 Why real earnings do not disprove a bubble

25:43 Liquidity, IPO supply and why bubbles can keep going

29:13 What advisors tell clients who want SpaceX

33:17 Fake SPVs, scams and safe access

37:39 Ocean City, peak season and Jersey Shore memories

41:39 Coheed and Cambria opening for Shinedown

45:44 Summer concerts, Bikini Kill, Weezer and The Shins

46:25 Cleaning out old cars and rediscovering CDs

50:10 Old iPods, underwater MP3 players and forgotten playlists

53:20 Mixtapes, liner notes and physical music culture

55:08 Where to find Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson

Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts

Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsen

Paulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/

Topics Covered

Why Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fall

The risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear market

How inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the market

Why the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin Warsh

The extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocks

Why AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainable

How tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectors

Why small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning sign

What past oil price peaks suggest about stock market corrections

Why investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth risk

How this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI

Timestamps

00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector
05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict
10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks
15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment
20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow
25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it
31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s
36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth
42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading
46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks
50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear
54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI
59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors now

Follow the Excess Returns podcasts:
https://excessreturnspod.com/

Contact us:
excessreturnspod@gmail.com/

No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.

AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps
https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruption

Kai Wu on X
https://x.com/ckaiwu

Sparkline Capital
https://www.sparklinecapital.com/

Topics Covered:

Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the market

How AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value traps

Why Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloff

How patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruption

Why disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investing

Why value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological change

How intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companies

Why Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did not

How David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moats

Why AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivors

Why high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickers

Timestamps:
00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount
04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap
08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing
13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history?
14:55 Why disruption keeps stacking on retailers
17:10 How technological change disrupted traditional value investing
21:20 Why value investors need to know when not to apply old metrics
25:06 Why more of the market is exposed to innovation than ever before
27:07 What Walmart and The New York Times teach about surviving disruption
32:40 The four intangible moats that can protect companies
35:02 Why intangible value works better in disrupted industries
38:50 Apple, Amazon, Macy’s and the difference between disruptors and value traps
42:58 Applying intangible value to beaten-down software stocks
47:05 Why AI adoption alone is not enough
48:23 How AI could improve margins for surviving software companies
50:09 Which industries are adopting AI fastest
52:14 The software sweet spot: AI adoption plus intangible moats
53:53 Why disruption-scare stocks have extreme return dispersion
57:40 What happens when intangible value is applied to high-disruption stocks
01:01:42 Why “code is not the moat” for many software companies

In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.

Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Topics Covered:

Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns

How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade

Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals

Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect

What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds

Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash

Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue

Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth

Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm

How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market
05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter
10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop
15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time
20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases
24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out
30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism
34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers
38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets
42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative
47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk
52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes
56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO
01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure
01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity

Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.

We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea.

Adam Parker on X
https://x.com/Adam_Parker_Tri

Trivariate Research
https://trivariateresearch.com/

Trivector Research
https://www.trivectorresearch.com

Topics covered:

Why “sell in May” and other calendar-based market rules often lack statistical support

Why Adam thinks the stock market leads the economy, not the other way around

How to think about whether today’s AI market is a bubble

Why the market may be trading on 2030 or 2031 fundamentals

When investors may start demanding returns on AI capital spending

Why AI could create new jobs rather than simply destroy existing ones

How large AI-related IPOs like SpaceX could affect index mechanics and portfolio flows

Why gross margin expansion is one of Adam’s most important stock selection factors

Why Adam remains cautious on software and prefers semiconductors over software

How valuation, quality, and other traditional factors may have changed since COVID

Why estimate achievability and incremental margins matter more than simple beats and misses

How to think about the Mag Seven, Nvidia, and market concentration

Why spinoffs may become more important in an AI-driven market

Why healthcare is Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea

Timestamps:

00:00 Why the market may be trading on future fundamentals
04:37 Is today’s stock market an AI bubble?
08:45 When AI capex needs to show real returns
13:00 How trillion-dollar IPOs could reshape index mechanics
19:00 Why gross margin expansion is such a powerful factor
23:00 Why software companies face AI-driven margin pressure
27:21 Where AI semiconductor exposure goes next
31:54 Why valuation does not work for stock picking
35:03 What has changed in markets since COVID
39:22 Estimate achievability and incremental margins
43:06 How to think about the Mag Seven and Nvidia
47:55 Why healthcare could be the biggest AI opportunity

Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.

They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.

Standpoint Funds

https://www.standpointfunds.com/

Topics covered:

Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thrive after regime shifts

How systematic investors manage whipsaws, drawdowns, and emotional pressure

The trade-offs between short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend signals

Why Eric prefers simple, durable systems over complex models and constant tinkering

When it makes sense to remove a futures market from a systematic portfolio

Why trend following may earn a risk transfer premium from hedgers and commercial users

How copper producers, options markets, and insurance help explain trend following returns

Why rising interest rates and short bond positions can benefit managed futures

How trend following can pair with global equities in an all-weather portfolio

Why smoothing a trend strategy can reduce its value when investors need convexity most

The behavioral challenge of holding diversifiers that look wrong at the wrong time

Why investors and advisors often want alternatives but struggle to stick with them

Timestamps:

00:00 Why trend following opportunities appear under pressure

04:39 Pro-growth positioning before the whipsaw

09:32 Short-term vs long-term trend signals

13:46 The danger of tinkering with systematic strategies

18:43 What actually changes in a durable process

23:27 Rising rates, short bonds, and collateral yield

28:00 Copper hedging and why trend followers buy rising prices

32:00 Options, insurance, and risk transfer through time

36:28 Regime shifts and supply-demand imbalances

41:00 What investors choose when asset classes are anonymized

45:11 Building a portfolio for 30-year terminal wealth

50:06 Why portfolio construction is different than judging individual strategies

56:15 Why trend following and value investing require faith

01:00:42 Reducing errors vs chasing highlight-reel winners

01:05:36 Where to follow Eric and Standpoint

Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.

We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative investing.

Cliff Asness on X
https://x.com/CliffordAsness

AQR Capital Management
https://www.aqr.com/

Papers Discussed

Bubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Bubble-Logic-Or-How-to-Learn-to-Stop-Worrying-and-Love-the-Bull

Rubble Logic: What Did We Learn From the Great Stock Market Bubble?
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Rubble-Logic

My Top 10 Peeves
https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves.pdf

Volatility Laundering
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Volatility-Laundering

I Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privates
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/I-Did-Not-Predict-What-is-Going-on-in-Privates

(So) What If You Miss the Market's N Best Days?
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-Days

International Diversification Works (Eventually)
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Works-Eventually

International Diversification - Still Not Crazy after All These Years
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Still-Not-Crazy-after-All-These-Years

Perhaps the Most Important Essay I Will Ever Co Author
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Perhaps-the-Most-Important-Essay-I-Will-Ever-Co-Author

Main topics covered:

How the dot-com bubble created its own internal logic

Why Dow 36,000 and Cisco message boards captured bubble thinking

What investors learned, and failed to learn, from the tech bubble

How today’s AI market compares with the dot-com era

Why long periods of underperformance make even good strategies hard to stick with

Why Cliff still defends volatility as a useful risk measure

Why “cash on the sidelines” is a misleading market narrative

How private equity smoothing can make risk look lower than it really is

Why the private markets debate is not a short-term prediction

Why the “missing the best 10 days” argument against market timing is incomplete

Why international diversification can still matter after decades of US outperformance

What pulling the goalie can teach investors about risk, incentives and career risk

How machine learning changes quant investing without eliminating economic intuition

Timestamps:

00:00 Why certainty is dangerous in investing
04:58 Why Bubble Logic never became a book
10:18 Cisco, Yahoo message boards and bubble psychology
14:16 Rubble Logic and the lessons investors failed to learn
18:04 What today’s AI market has in common with the dot-com bubble
22:23 Why the long run can lie to investors
26:02 Volatility, permanent loss of capital and real risk control
30:19 Why there is no cash on the sidelines
34:00 Private equity, smoothing and volatility laundering
39:47 Why Cliff did not call the private markets downturn
43:19 The flaw in the missing the best 10 days argument
49:00 Why international diversification still works eventually
53:35 Why crashes are global but lost decades are local
57:30 Pulling the goalie and asymmetric risk
01:01:00 Why coaches and investors avoid optimal decisions
01:07:36 Machine learning, overfitting and economic intuition
01:10:50 Leverage, short selling and derivatives in quant portfolios
01:16:26 Where to follow Cliff Asness

Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.

Ben's Book
https://amzn.to/4dFHsQz

Ben Carlson on X
https://x.com/awealthofcs

Ben's Blog
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/

Main topics covered:

Why risk is hard to define and always involves trade-offs

How vivid risks like sharks and headlines distort investor decision-making

Why doing nothing can be one of the hardest parts of investing

How inflation should be viewed through personal finance, human capital and long-term investing

Why stocks can be an inflation hedge even if they struggle during inflation spikes

Why waiting for the market coast to clear often fails

What the world’s worst market timer teaches about saving and staying invested

How loss aversion shapes investor behavior

What the Great Depression, bear markets and 30-year returns teach about long-term investing

Why there is no perfect portfolio and the best strategy is one you can actually stick with

Timestamps:

00:00 Ben Carlson on why risk and reward are attached

06:35 Doing nothing, action bias and better investing behavior

11:51 Inflation psychology and lessons from the 1970s

16:55 Why stocks can hedge inflation over the long run

21:07 Why waiting for the coast to clear is a market timing trap

26:30 Time horizons, loss aversion and portfolio behavior

31:49 Government rescue, left-tail risk and unintended consequences

35:54 Recessionary vs non-recessionary bear markets

42:09 Why the stock market and economy can diverge

47:24 Why compounding is about holding, not trading

51:37 Starting valuations, lost decades and future returns

55:40 Risk, reward and the biggest lesson for investors

AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and where the biggest second-order opportunities may emerge.

Gene Munster on X
https://x.com/munster_gene

Doug Clinton on X
https://x.com/dougclinton

Deepwater Asset Management
https://www.deepwatermgmt.com/

Intelligent Alpha
https://www.intelligentalpha.co/

Main topics covered:

• Why Doug Clinton still thinks AI could become a bigger bubble than dot-com
• How Claude Code, Codex and frontier AI models are changing enterprise productivity
• The job disruption risk for knowledge workers and why AI adoption may become a survival skill
• Why the AI model race may not be winner-take-all
• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to evaluate stocks and earnings expectations
• Why GPT, Claude and DeepSeek perform differently across investing tasks
• The AI infrastructure boom and why energy may be one of the most underappreciated bottlenecks
• Hyperscaler CapEx, data centers and the investment case for continued AI spending
• How major AI IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could affect public markets
• Why space, orbital data centers and zero-gravity manufacturing could become real investment themes

Timestamps:

00:00 AI, electricity and intelligence
04:33 Why new AI models changed the semiconductor trade
09:14 What AI means for knowledge worker jobs
14:03 Codex, Claude Code and Google’s AI challenge
18:50 OpenAI, Apple and the model capacity race
23:03 How many frontier AI models can survive?
27:18 Intelligent Alpha’s AI earnings benchmark
31:34 Why AI investors avoid emotional bias
35:33 Where to invest in the AI stack
39:00 Why AI energy demand is still underappreciated
43:43 How markets are judging hyperscaler AI spending
48:00 The investment opportunity in space
52:20 Final thoughts and closing

Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but so essential.

The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World
https://groveatlantic.com/book/the-making-of-a-permabear/

GMO
https://www.gmo.com/americas/

Grantham Foundation
https://granthamfoundation.org/

Topics covered:

Why Jeremy Grantham thinks the “permabear” label misses the point

The difference between being generally bearish and making a true “abandon ship” call

Mean reversion, valuation cycles, and why history still matters for investors

Why monopoly power helped reshape U.S. profit margins and market concentration

How AI could turn today’s monopoly winners into brutal competitors

Why new technology often becomes a cost of doing business rather than a permanent profit boost

How Grantham defines bubbles using two-sigma market events

Lessons from Japan, the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, and the 2021 speculative peak

Why institutional investors struggle to stick with value strategies during bubbles

The role of purpose, climate risk, toxicity, and long-term thinking in Grantham’s later career

The one lesson Grantham would teach ordinary investors about pessimism, realism, and time horizons

Timestamps:
00:00 Jeremy Grantham on unpleasant news and long-term investing
04:18 Reinvesting when terrified in 2009
08:43 Why Grantham told investors to abandon ship in 2008
10:28 Mean reversion and why history matters
14:00 Monopoly power, the Mag 7, and rising market concentration
17:14 Why AI is important but impossible to forecast
20:21 AI as a cost of doing business
21:24 From monopoly profits to brutal AI competition
24:05 How investors should think about valuation mean reversion
27:00 Why high returns on capital should eventually attract competition
29:47 How Grantham defines a market bubble
33:00 Japan’s extreme bubble and GMO’s zero weight decision
34:19 The dot-com bubble and the pain of being early
38:00 Grantham’s bubble warning signal in 2021
41:35 Whether today’s market is showing classic bubble behavior
43:00 QuantumScape, meme stocks, and speculative excess
46:35 How ChatGPT interrupted the 2022 bear market
49:12 Investor behavior and the cost of underperforming in a bubble
55:00 Purpose, philanthropy, climate risk, and useful work
01:01:03 The one lesson Grantham would teach average investors

Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incentive conflicts, and correlations that can spike when markets are under stress.

Marc Rubinstein on X
https://x.com/MarcRuby

Net Interest
https://www.netinterest.co/

In this episode, we discuss:

Why the Fed says private credit redemption risks are limited and manageable

What Blue Owl’s redemption gates reveal about private credit liquidity

How post-2008 bank regulation pushed risk into private credit, hedge funds, trading firms, and exchanges

Why banks and private credit firms are both competitors and collaborators

The “layer cake” of leverage connecting banks, private credit, and borrowers

How HSBC’s loss tied to Atlas and MFS highlights hidden credit risks

Why insurance companies have become increasingly tied to private credit

Why rapid growth can be dangerous in financial businesses

What bank earnings show about the gap between weak consumer confidence and resilient spending

Why post-mortem reports from SVB, Credit Suisse, and other failures reveal what investors could not see in real time

How Revolut became one of the most interesting fintech stories in global banking

Why Marc calls this a potential golden age of arbitrage

What Jane Street, public BDC discounts, private asset valuations, and geopolitical fragmentation tell us about market structure

Why investors may still be too anchored to the 2008 banking playbook

Where Marc sees risk and opportunity in financials, banks, Europe, and non-bank financial institutions

Timestamps:

00:00 Private credit, hidden risks, and correlation spikes
05:03 Why Blue Owl became a private credit warning sign
10:20 How private credit grew after the 2008 financial crisis
15:30 Banks and private credit as financial “frenemies”
19:44 HSBC, Atlas, MFS, and the layer cake of leverage
24:11 Apollo, Athene, insurance assets, and private credit incentives
29:20 Why higher rates have not broken more of the financial system
33:40 Bank earnings, consumer confidence, and resilient spending
37:20 Why “I don’t know” can be a powerful signal from bank CEOs
41:46 Revolut and the ambition to build a truly global bank
47:38 Why growth can be dangerous in finance
52:19 Private assets, public BDC discounts, and arbitrage opportunities
56:34 What investors misunderstand about banks today
59:31 How Marc would think about financials as a long-short investor

First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build.

Andy Constan on X
https://x.com/dampedspring

Damped Spring Advisors
https://dampedspring.com/

Topics covered:

Why bubbles are easy to identify in hindsight but nearly impossible to define in real time

The difference between an expensive market and a true bubble regime

How new technologies, easy money, regulation, and exogenous shocks can create bubble conditions

Why AI may rhyme with the internet boom without being an exact repeat

The role of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s OpenAI investment, and semiconductor earnings expectations

What the 1987 crash, Japan, housing, bonds, and dot-com bubble can teach investors today

Why human nature, FOMO, and “keeping up with the Joneses” make bubbles so powerful

How the late-1990s Fed response to Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubble

Why tech’s current size in the economy and market may limit how far the AI boom can grow

How AI capex, hyperscaler spending, buybacks, debt issuance, and IPO supply could determine what happens next

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and the challenge of identifying bubbles
04:32 Expensive markets vs true bubble regimes
09:57 The five bubble episodes Andy compares to today
14:35 Root conditions, escalation events, and the peaking phase
19:20 Why the 1987 crash may also have been a bubble
24:25 The late-1990s setup and the Netscape Navigator moment
28:00 Crisis analogs, easy financial conditions, and today’s AI parallels
32:20 Long-Term Capital Management and rocket fuel for the tech bubble
36:11 Why tech’s market share matters more today than in the 1990s
43:18 Policy mistakes, subsidies, and how governments feed bubbles
47:42 Semiconductor earnings expectations and valuation risk
53:45 The AI capex chain and where the money has to come from
58:42 IPOs, corporate debt, and the financing risk behind the AI boom
01:02:27 What investors should do differently in a bubble regime

Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble, China’s investment boom and the post-2008 interest rate regime suggest about the risks and opportunities today.

Subscribe on Spotify⁠

⁠Subscribe on Apple

Topics covered:

How capital cycle theory applies to the AI data center boom

Why railway mania, autos, aircraft and the dot-com bubble offer lessons for today

Why markets often fund major technology transitions but fail to identify the winners

The prisoner’s dilemma driving hyperscaler AI spending

Whether AI demand can justify the supply being built

How GPU depreciation and AI capital spending may affect reported earnings

Why hallucinations and reliability may limit the total addressable market for large language models

The case for looking at AI anti-bubbles instead of shorting the bubble directly

Why China shows that strong GDP growth does not guarantee strong shareholder returns

How intangible capital, SaaS valuations and human capital fit into capital cycle analysis

Whether bubbles can be good for society while still being bad for investors

Why the long-term interest rate cycle may have changed

The role of gold in a world of expensive stocks, rising debt and vulnerable bonds

Timestamps:

00:00 Edward Chancellor on capital cycles, bubbles and AI
04:42 Why the railway mania became a classic overinvestment cycle
09:00 Why markets fund technology booms but often miss the winners
13:19 The prisoner’s dilemma behind AI spending
17:30 Will AI demand justify the supply being built
20:00 How capital spending can inflate profits before the bust
25:08 The AI Hindenburg moment and the limits of large language models
30:55 Why AI hype may exceed the proven technology
35:55 Why the anti-bubble may matter more than shorting AI
40:00 The energy transition bubble and the opportunity in overlooked assets
45:08 China’s lesson on GDP growth and shareholder returns
49:27 Big Booze, GLP-1s and the Lindy effect
54:23 Can intangible capital have its own capital cycle
59:54 SaaS valuations and the index creation warning signal
01:04:10 Why bubbles can help society but hurt investors
01:09:09 Why long-term rates may be in a new multi-decade cycle
01:14:07 Why Edward Chancellor still sees a role for gold

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.

Guest Links

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/

Topics Covered

Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention

How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks

Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors

How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves

Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility

What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500

Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters

How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows

Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion

What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows
00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?
05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing
09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors
13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?
16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market
20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility
23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy
28:07 The market rally into May expiration
33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk
36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup
40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech
44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500
49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon
51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE
54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume
57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion
59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations
01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging
01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion

Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research.

We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment, why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think, and how investors can think about diversification when mega-cap growth stocks dominate market returns.

Bridgeway Capital Management
https://bridgeway.com/

I Know What You Did Last Summer
https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/i-know-what-you-did-last-summer/

How Many Stocks Are Effectively in the S&P 500?
https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/how-many-stocks-are-effectively-in-the-sp500/

Topics Covered

Why quantitative investing still needs human judgment and skepticism

The difference between smart beta and true multi-factor portfolio construction

How Bridgeway combines value, quality, sentiment and risk controls

Why the size premium may depend on how small-cap stocks are defined

Why recently fallen large caps and IPOs can distort small-cap research

How the small-cap universe has changed as companies stay private longer

How intangible assets affect traditional value and quality metrics

Why value can work in bursts and why timing factor rotations is so difficult

How concentrated the S&P 500 has become using the HHI framework

Why passive investing may create opportunities for active small-cap managers

How market neutral strategies can help investors manage equity market volatility

How AI can help with data, text analysis and trading without replacing investment judgment

Timestamps

00:00 Why fewer than 50 stocks are driving S&P 500 returns
01:04 Bridgeway’s evidence-based investing approach
02:59 Why quantitative models need human judgment
07:52 Smart beta vs multi-factor investing
11:32 How Bridgeway builds multi-factor portfolios
16:08 Rethinking the size premium
20:31 Has the small-cap universe gotten worse?
23:49 How intangibles change value investing
28:05 Does value still work?
30:09 Why value returns can be episodic
33:11 Why factor investors need patience
35:22 How concentrated is the S&P 500?
40:29 Factor strategies as portfolio diversifiers
41:41 Passive investing and market structure
44:27 Managing volatility with market neutral strategies
49:40 How systematic managers update their models
55:02 How Bridgeway is using AI
01:00:03 Elena’s biggest lesson for investors

This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.

They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.

Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple

Topics Covered

Why being present with management teams may still be an investor edge in the age of AI

How microcap investing differs from small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap investing

Why talking to management can build conviction but also create bias

How Chris Mayer thinks about vertical market software, mission-critical systems and AI disruption

Why AI may become table stakes rather than a durable competitive advantage

How small companies can use AI to improve workflows, sales, inventory and productivity

Why many microcaps have short shelf lives and rarely become true long-term compounders

The role of intelligent fanatics, owner-operators and repeat winners in great investments

Why management transitions can create powerful microcap opportunities

The difference between being a great analyst and being a great investor

Why execution, position sizing, selling losers and holding winners matter more than hit rate

How Matt and Bogumil apply the lessons to AI, business quality and the limits of small business scalability

Timestamps

00:49 Introducing Chris Mayer, Ian Cassel and 100 Year Thinkers

04:59 Ian Cassel’s first management meeting and XM Satellite Radio

09:00 Why management meetings deepen understanding but can also mislead

14:32 Chris Mayer on the real edge in long-term investing

18:40 Mission-critical software, systems of record and AI disruption

22:45 How microcap companies are using AI in real businesses

27:02 AI as table stakes and when disruption creates opportunity

31:29 Why most microcaps have short shelf lives35:51 Finding Tom Brady before the market knows he is Tom Brady

40:53 Why owner-operators and intelligent fanatics matter

45:03 Second-in-command leaders, repeat winners and chips on shoulders

49:27 Analyst vs investor and the missing skills of stock picking

54:00 Using data to identify investor strengths, weaknesses and decision errors

58:14 Position sizing and letting small positions earn the right to grow

01:03:00 Peter Lynch, stocks as businesses and learning to think like an owner

01:07:00 AI, human judgment and the limits of automation

01:11:00 Why not every small business can become the next Facebook

01:15:00 Where to follow Bogumil and the 100 Year Thinkers series

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.

Subscribe on Spotify

Subscribe on Apple

Topics Covered

Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors

Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies

The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk

Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s

How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages

Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk

What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency

Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in

The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks

Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow

Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing

Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story

Timestamps

00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception
02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling
08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management
12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages
20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk
29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated
34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks
39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt
43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today
51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think
56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders
1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story
1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners

This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher.

Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠

Topics Covered

Why markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical risk

The “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yet

How supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflation

Why pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting markets

The role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rally

Bull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioning

Why free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earnings

How options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatility

The AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadth

The growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the market

Timestamps

00:00 Intro and market overview
01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news
03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience
06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit
08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies
10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth
14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks
17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear
18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment
20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk
22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework
24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven
26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus
29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup
31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning
33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations
35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver
37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets
40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk
44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning
47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil
49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership
51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity
54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure
56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility
58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership
01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate
01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications

This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks.

Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why many investors may be disappointed with passive index returns over the next decade.

Richard walks through the implications of rising import prices, global conflict, and deglobalization, and how these forces could drive a structural shift toward higher inflation and shorter-duration investing. He also explains why market concentration, AI enthusiasm, and capital flows may be setting up a broadening opportunity across overlooked areas of the market.

Follow Rich on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/RBAdvisors

Company Website:
https://www.rbadvisors.com

Why investors in S&P 500 index funds may face disappointing long-term returns

The shift from exporting disinflation to importing inflation through global trade

How war and geopolitical conflict are influencing inflation expectations and markets

Why today’s environment resembles the 1960s “guns and butter” period more than the 1970s

The case for structurally higher inflation and a potential shift in Fed targets

Why shorter-duration assets, dividends, and cash flow matter more in inflationary regimes

The risks of overconcentration in AI and mega-cap growth stocks

How capital flows and valuation distortions create opportunities outside the Mag 7

The case for international equities and why investors are significantly underweight

Where Bernstein sees the most compelling long-term opportunities across sectors and regions

00:00 Intro and why index investors could be disappointed
00:01:13 War, inflation, and the impact of rising gasoline prices
00:02:40 Importing inflation and the role of global trade dynamics
00:03:33 1970s oil shock vs 1960s guns and butter comparison
00:05:00 Why today’s inflation environment may be less severe than the 1970s
00:06:30 Defense spending, tax cuts, and inflation expectations
00:08:54 Why Bernstein is taking the “over” on inflation and deficits
00:10:00 The case for a higher long-term inflation target
00:11:00 Why the Fed may resist changing its 2% inflation target
00:12:00 Deglobalization and the rise of global conflict
00:14:00 Global inflation dynamics and divergence across countries
00:15:21 Why cash and short-duration assets may outperform
00:17:00 Asset-liability mismatches and the endowment model stress
00:18:23 Market concentration and parallels to the dot-com bubble
00:20:00 AI as an economic story vs an investment story
00:21:00 Capital flows, valuation excess, and future return expectations
00:22:39 Why market broadening opportunities may emerge
00:24:19 Passive flows, ETFs, and market distortions
00:25:40 Where Bernstein sees sector opportunities today
00:27:34 The case for dividends in an inflationary environment
00:31:00 Why near-term cash flow matters more than long-term growth
00:33:07 Corporate behavior, capital allocation, and rising hurdle rates
00:36:02 Profit cycle strength and why the market should broaden
00:41:36 Evaluating IPOs and speculative investments
00:47:09 The risk of a lost decade for index investors
00:50:21 Gold, commodities, and portfolio diversification
00:53:48 Most attractive overlooked opportunities today
00:58:06 Biggest long-term risks and what keeps Bernstein up at night

This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early.

Davis Advisors
https://www.davisadvisors.com

Topics Covered

Why high valuations signal complacency even in an uncertain macro environment

The three major forces reshaping markets: higher cost of capital, deglobalization, and AI

How to identify durable and resilient businesses in a fragile world

Why growth and value are not opposites and how expectations drive opportunity

Lessons from past bubbles and why today may resemble 1999 in market structure

The hidden risks in passive investing and index concentration

Chris Davis’ five-part framework for investing in AI (winners, enablers, users, protected, disrupted)

Why most investors lose money by overpaying for growth and underestimating competition

The importance of management quality and “great people” in long-term investing success

Why the biggest investing mistakes are often the great companies you sell too early

Timestamps

00:00 Intro and key investing paradox on risk perception
02:45 Why today’s market reflects complacency despite uncertainty
05:20 Valuations, concentration, and optimism in current markets
08:52 Lessons from 1999 and how value investing can outperform in downturns
12:00 Durability, resilience, and why balance sheets matter more now
15:21 Kodak, disruption, and risks of passive investing
18:00 Perception vs reality of risk and behavioral mistakes
21:51 Market structure, moral hazard, and the “buy the dip” mindset
26:34 How investors should think about AI as a long-term technology shift
29:30 Why picking early AI winners is dangerous
33:00 The role of enablers like semiconductors, energy, and infrastructure
36:00 AI users and which companies benefit most from adoption
38:00 Businesses protected from disruption vs “walking dead” companies
42:00 The biggest investing mistake: selling great companies too early
46:00 Portfolio concentration and lessons from real-world experience
50:00 Berkshire Hathaway, long-term culture, and durable business models
54:00 Learning from mistakes: Costco case study
57:00 The importance of management and why people matter more than investors think

This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors.

Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should think about momentum, quality, and diversification in a rapidly changing environment.

Papers and Resources Discussed:

Risks Hiding in Plain Sight
https://www.informedmomentum.com/risks-hiding-in-plain-sight-how-the-dominance-of-passive-investing-is-reshaping-market-risk/

Is Quality Broken?
https://www.informedmomentum.com/is-quality-broken-ai-driven-disruption-is-testing-standard-definitions-of-quality/

Buy High, Sell Higher
https://www.informedmomentum.com/buy-high-sell-higher/

Topics Covered:

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and major market shifts
01:32 Market divergence beneath the surface
03:00 Factor performance and broadening market trends
05:13 Why market concentration hurts factor investing
06:48 AI and deglobalization as structural drivers
08:14 Does this environment change how you invest?
11:02 Has the market sped up? Momentum implications
14:00 Passive investing and hidden structural risks
17:00 Tracking error vs real risk in portfolios
19:00 AI as a potential change agent for markets
21:09 How passive flows impact factor investing
24:00 What defines “quality” in factor investing
27:04 Why software and quality are under pressure
29:13 AI disruption and changing expectations
32:20 How to evaluate factor underperformance
34:35 Comparing today’s market to the 1990s
37:38 Buy high, sell higher: 52-week highs
41:00 52-week highs vs traditional momentum
43:20 Combining signals for better outcomes
46:00 Why 52-week highs improve downside protection
48:17 What momentum is picking up today
50:21 Misconceptions about momentum and growth
52:12 Timing and implementation of momentum
54:18 Momentum reversals and market behavior
57:17 Future research and improving momentum signals

This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.

Semper Augustus Investments
https://www.semperaugustus.com

Topics covered:

Why extreme market concentration in the Mag 7 may create long-term risks

The concept of a “secular plateau” vs a market peak

How AI capex could become a classic capital cycle with poor returns

Why hyperscaler spending may not translate into shareholder profits

The hidden risks of leverage both on and off balance sheets

Why buy-and-hold investing is harder than it seems in practice

How valuation discipline drives long-term investment outcomes

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position and what it signals about opportunity

Why capital allocation matters more than growth narratives

Lessons from past bubbles including railroads, fiber, and the Nifty Fifty

The fragility of life and how it shapes investing priorities

The importance of independent thinking in the age of AI

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
05:12 The “Both Sides Now” framework and AI theme
09:03 Secular peak vs secular plateau in markets
13:08 Leverage risks and balance sheet quality
17:42 Why passive investors are more concentrated than they think
21:12 The limits of long-term compounding and disruption risk
25:06 Why valuation matters more than “forever stocks”
29:10 Portfolio construction and return on capital differences
33:18 AI capex boom and capital cycle parallels
37:05 Why hyperscaler spending may not generate adequate returns
41:12 The math problem behind AI investment returns
45:10 Competition, redundancy, and pricing pressure in AI
49:02 Is AI an existential risk for big tech?
52:06 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash and Apple sales
56:08 Capital allocation lessons from Coca-Cola vs Apple
59:20 What Berkshire’s cash signals about future opportunities
01:02:10 The fragility of life and investing priorities
01:05:28 Final lessons for investors: reading, skepticism, and independent thinking

This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume.

Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also outlines how he is positioning portfolios in response to these risks.

Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com

Topics Covered

Why markets may be a “bubble in behavior,” not technology

The equity risk premium at zero and what that implies for future returns

CAPE valuations and why long-term returns could be flat to negative

The shift from economy driving markets to markets driving the economy

The “silent contraction” beneath strong GDP headlines

AI-driven productivity vs weakening labor markets

The K-shaped economy across consumers, jobs, and capital spending

Why the savings rate is the most important overlooked economic variable

Inflation outlook: why this shock may be disinflationary, not persistent

Portfolio construction in a low-return, high-uncertainty environment

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:42 Cycle thinking vs “perma bear” label
09:58 Learning probabilistic thinking and Plan B
15:52 The “sixth mega bubble” and investor behavior
20:36 Why valuations imply poor forward returns
25:08 The “silent contraction” beneath headline data
29:14 The savings rate and equity wealth effect
33:12 Fiscal deficits and artificial economic support
38:28 2027 outlook and shifting probabilities
43:02 Why expectations matter more than recession calls
45:40 Inflation shock vs wage-driven inflation
49:22 Productivity boom and disinflation forces
53:10 Why inflation may fall faster than expected
55:04 Portfolio positioning and diversification strategy
01:00:12 Tactical vs thematic investing framework
01:03:10 Final thoughts on risk, probabilities, and markets

Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today.

Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a detailed look at how a professional trader navigates uncertainty.

Spectra Markets
https://www.spectramarkets.com

Topics covered:

Why stocks need a steady stream of bad news to go down and what drives rallies

The impact of constant policy shocks on volatility, positioning, and mean reversion

How to distinguish structural trends from short-term trading opportunities

The “wall of worry” and why markets can ignore negative headlines

The importance of Mag 7 earnings and concentration in today’s market

How traders use reassessment triggers like the 200-day moving average

The complexity of central bank reactions to oil shocks and inflation

Why bonds still matter as a recession hedge despite recent correlation breakdowns

How positioning—not fundamentals—drives moves in the U.S. dollar

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin through the lens of flows, retail behavior, and debasement

The role of overconfidence and risk management in trading success

Brent’s journaling process and how writing clarifies thinking

How to identify asymmetric trades using potential headline scenarios

Why edges in markets are temporary and require constant adaptation

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:05 Government policy shocks and market impact
05:10 Volatility, shocks, and trading frameworks
09:05 Why the economy remains resilient despite rate hikes
13:05 Market concentration and the importance of big tech earnings
16:05 The “steady stream of bad news” framework for stocks
18:30 Using the 200-day moving average and pattern recognition
22:10 Central banks, oil shocks, and inflation dynamics
24:35 Stocks vs bonds and the 60/40 portfolio outlook
26:05 Why dollar moves depend on positioning, not narratives
30:55 Gold, silver, and the retail-driven momentum cycle
34:05 The debasement trade and long-term gold thesis
38:10 Rationality vs overconfidence in trading
41:05 Risk management, journaling, and avoiding blowups
46:00 Thinking in probabilities, positioning, and market expectations
50:55 Journaling as a tool for clarity and discipline
55:00 Why traders lose discipline when over-earning
59:10 Brent’s new book and evolving trading frameworks
01:03:30 Where to find Brent and closing thoughts

Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders.

Follow Liz Ann on Twitter
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders

Liz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered

How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy

Why the US being a “net energy exporter” doesn’t protect investors

The hidden bear market beneath index-level resilience

Rotation vs. correction and what it means for portfolios

The rise of retail traders and the shift away from “dumb money”

Why better or worse data matters more than good or bad data

The K-shaped economy and its impact on consumption and markets

AI’s three phases and its real impact on jobs and productivity

Why this earnings season may be more important than usual

The shifting role of the Mag 7 and broader market participation

Why the bond market may be the true driver of equities

Risks in credit markets and what investors should watch

Labor market dynamics and challenges for younger workers

How investors and young professionals should think about AI

Timestamps
00:00 Intro and current market environment
04:05 Why the US isn’t immune to oil price shocks
05:35 Lessons from past oil shocks and inflation
07:22 Why markets seem resilient despite macro risks
08:00 The hidden drawdowns beneath the index surface
10:13 Rolling recessions and sector-level weakness
10:37 Are investors conditioned to buy every dip
12:58 What happens when the dip doesn’t get bought
14:36 Valuations, corrections, and market structure
15:12 Sentiment analysis in a new market regime
18:50 Retail investors outperforming institutions
20:08 Better or worse vs good or bad economic data
23:00 How markets anticipate economic turning points
25:22 Understanding the K-shaped economy
28:00 Wealth effects and risks from equity declines
29:09 AI as a transformative force vs macro risks
30:00 The three phases of AI development
33:04 Why this earnings season matters more
34:00 Earnings revisions and sector concentration
36:00 The future of Mag 7 leadership vs the rest of the market
38:00 Contribution vs performance in index returns
40:00 Sector sensitivity to inflation and supply chains
42:00 Fundamentals vs speculation in small caps
44:21 The Fed’s dilemma in an oil shock environment
48:00 Why the bond market is driving equities
50:05 Credit markets and systemic risk signals
53:26 Lessons from past bond market dislocations
54:19 Labor market challenges and younger workers
57:00 Career advice in the age of AI
59:26 How Liz Ann uses AI in her research process
01:01:00 Closing thoughts and where to follow Liz Ann

This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect.

We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the role of gold, and why markets are always harder in real time than they appear in hindsight.

Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
https://www.grantspub.com/

Topics Covered:

Why war is inherently inflationary and how it strains the productive economy

The difference between measured economic stability and underlying systemic risks

How inflation shifted from a wartime phenomenon to a permanent feature of modern monetary policy

The Fed’s 2% inflation target as a structural form of currency debasement

Lessons from the 1970s inflation and oil shocks vs. today’s environment

Why inflation is a ratchet that erodes purchasing power over time

The importance of trust in credit markets and growing risks in private credit structures

Public debt, Treasury market dynamics, and early signs of strain in government financing

Historical parallels between AI investment and past technological booms like the internet

The role of gold as a hedge against (and investment in) monetary instability

The durability of the US dollar despite long-term structural concerns

Why investing is always difficult in the present—even when it looks obvious in hindsight

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and Jim Grant on the true causes of inflation
04:04 Why war drives sustained inflation and current geopolitical risks
08:00 Historical perspective on inflation before the 1970s
12:00 Oil shocks, Volcker, and lessons from past inflation cycles
16:00 Why inflation never reverses and purchasing power declines
20:00 Trust in markets and the foundation of credit systems
24:00 Private credit risks and the modern credit cycle
28:00 Public debt, Treasury markets, and fiscal sustainability concerns
32:00 Treasury auctions, yields, and early warning signs in bonds
35:25 AI capex boom and lessons from past technological bubbles
38:17 Air conditioning, internet bubbles, and delayed economic payoffs
40:00 The Fed, Treasury, and hidden financial interdependence
44:14 Asset allocation, gold, and monetary disruption
48:44 The dollar’s strength and global dominance
53:41 Why investing is always difficult in real time
59:00 Advice on markets, newsletters, and enduring uncertainty

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.

They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration.

Topics covered:

Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty

The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly

How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices

Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings

The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning

Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets

The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility

What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning

The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges

Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside

Timestamps:

00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos
04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations
07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements
11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points
13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship
15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior
18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls
20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones
22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead
24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance
27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows
30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship
33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility
34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation
36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx
37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock
39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever
41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind
43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy
45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatility

For more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:
https://spotgamma.com

Follow Brent on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/spotgamma

This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape.

Tom walks through his “Hype vs High Conviction” framework, explaining why identifying the right layer of the AI ecosystem may matter more than simply betting on the theme itself, and why balance sheets, durability, and capital allocation remain critical even in the most exciting growth environments.

Hype vs High Conviction

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/hype-vs-high-conviction_insights/

Topics Covered:

Why AI may be the most important investment decision today

The four-layer AI stack: applications, LLMs, hyperscalers, and infrastructure

Why investors confuse secular trends with investable opportunities

Following the money through the AI value chain

The hidden risks of investing lower in the stack

Why today’s tech leaders differ from the dot-com era

Growth vs maintenance capex and what it means for AI economics

Why software may be more resilient than markets think

How GMO defines “quality” and why it matters in volatile markets

Portfolio construction: where GMO is investing (and avoiding) in AI

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and framing the AI investment debate
00:00:55 Tom Hancock background and focus on quality investing
00:02:00 What investors are getting wrong about AI
00:03:23 Breaking down the four layers of the AI ecosystem
00:06:45 Applications vs infrastructure: where value may accrue
00:08:45 Why predicting AI winners is still difficult
00:11:00 Following the cash flows through the AI stack
00:13:00 Why AI funding is more stable than past tech bubbles
00:16:00 Big Tech strategy differences and capital allocation decisions
00:17:34 Are today’s tech companies higher quality than in 1999?
00:19:00 Growth vs maintenance capex and implications for Nvidia and others
00:22:00 Depreciation, chip lifecycles, and hidden risks in capex assumptions
00:24:00 Capital intensity vs quality: when heavy investment is a feature
00:27:00 Why incumbents may benefit most from AI
00:28:30 Risks in the LLM layer and potential commoditization
00:30:10 Software disruption fears: overdone or justified?
00:34:06 Defining “quality” in investing
00:36:00 Balance sheets vs return on capital
00:38:32 Why GMO sold Oracle and the risks of leverage
00:40:18 What happens if AI spending slows down
00:41:35 Where the biggest risks are in the AI stack
00:44:26 Where GMO is positioned vs the S&P 500
00:48:00 How new ideas enter a quality portfolio
00:51:00 Sell discipline and portfolio turnover
00:53:00 International vs US quality investing

This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface.

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠

⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts

Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail signal to private credit stress, productivity trends, and policy uncertainty, offering a data-driven perspective on where markets and the economy may be headed next.

Paulsen Perspectives Substack
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Topics Covered

Why the recent oil spike hasn’t impacted inflation and interest rates as expected

Slowing economic growth vs. recession risk and what the Fed might do next

The Walmart vs luxury retail indicator and what it signals about the economy

Private credit risks and how they differ from traditional credit crises

Why many indicators point to a new bull market rather than a bear

The role of sentiment, volatility, and uncertainty in driving market returns

Market rotation from mega-cap “new era” stocks to broader market leadership

Corporate profits divergence and the opportunity in the rest of the economy

Liquidity, cash levels, and positioning as potential fuel for markets

Productivity trends and whether AI-driven gains are real or overstated

Timestamps
00:00 Intro and current macro backdrop
01:05 Oil spike and limited impact on yields and inflation
04:45 Growth outlook and why recession may still be avoided
07:10 Fed policy and the stagflation question
10:15 Walmart vs luxury retail indicator explained
13:40 Private credit stress vs traditional credit cycles
17:00 Why this isn’t 2008 and how balance sheets differ
19:50 Private credit risks and market spillover effects
22:15 Bear market fears vs signs of a new bull
23:45 Consumer confidence and its impact on returns
25:05 Oil spikes historically as buy signals
26:15 VIX, volatility, and market bottoms
27:05 Yield curve steepening and market implications
28:05 Sentiment indicators and what they really reflect
30:00 Market rotation and broadening beyond mega caps
32:45 Passing the baton from tech to broader markets
35:15 Corporate profits divergence and future potential
37:00 Policy uncertainty and why it can be bullish
42:05 Liquidity, cash levels, and risk allocation
43:20 Options positioning and put-call signals
44:05 Gold vs commodities and risk appetite
45:10 Consumer credit contraction and market signals
46:20 Polymarket recession probabilities as sentiment
47:30 Economic sentiment collapse and contrarian signals
48:10 Interest rate expectations and positioning
49:05 Unemployment trends and historical market bottoms
50:25 Productivity trends and AI impact on the economy

This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and disruption risk.

Tony explains why AI is fundamentally changing the cost of intelligence, how agentic systems could reshape software and labor markets, and why the current AI buildout may differ from past tech cycles. The discussion also dives into where we are in the AI cycle, how to think about the Mag 7, and what investors may be missing across the tech stack.

T. Rowe Price Science and Technology Fund
https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/science-and-technology-fund.htmlTopics Covered

What it means to invest in “inevitabilities” and separating signal from noise in markets

Why AI and compute demand represent a structural shift similar to past tech waves

The rise of agentic AI and how it could transform software and productivity

Whether AI is underappreciated or already priced into markets

The “multiple moons” idea and why AI may not be a winner-take-all market

How AI could reshape the labor market, productivity, and economic growth

The AI CapEx debate and why this cycle may differ from the dot-com buildout

Where we are in the AI cycle: training vs inferencing and deployment phase

The impact of AI on software companies and the innovator’s dilemma

How semiconductors, memory, and infrastructure remain key bottlenecks

The changing nature of the Mag 7 and capital intensity in AI

Tony’s portfolio construction framework across compounders, emerging tech, and value

How he generates ideas using S-curve adoption and economic bottlenecks

Position sizing, risk management, and balancing growth with drawdown control

Sell discipline: valuation, fundamentals, and market signals

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and Tony Wang overview
01:05 Investing in inevitabilities and long-term thinking
03:00 Differentiating inevitability from hype and consensus
04:45 AI inevitability and the rise of agentic systems
07:00 Cost of intelligence and productivity implications
08:00 Real-world examples of AI adoption (customer service, agents)
09:00 Is AI underappreciated by markets?
11:15 AI as a “space race with multiple moons”
13:30 AI as the dominant driver of markets today
15:00 AI’s impact on jobs, productivity, and the economy
18:30 Creativity, judgment, and the future of work
20:45 Physical AI and robotics opportunity set
22:30 AI CapEx debate vs the dot-com era
25:30 Semiconductors vs software in the AI stack
28:15 AI disruption risk for software companies
31:00 Cyclicality in semiconductors and how AI changes it
33:30 The evolving role of the Mag 7 in AI
36:30 Competition, startups, and AI democratization
38:00 Where we are in the AI cycle today
40:00 Idea generation and S-curve adoption framework
42:30 Case study: memory and AI bottlenecks
44:45 Example position: optical networking and infrastructure
46:40 Portfolio construction and position sizing
49:00 Sell discipline and managing valuation risk

This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.

We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.

More on Katie's Strategies

https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/

Topics Covered:

Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase

The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases

Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk

How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets

The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle

Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse

Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes

Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction

The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors

Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025

What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets

How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal
08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities
12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle
16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice
20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership
24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios
27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics
32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals
36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation
39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy
44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next
47:00 Key signals to watch going forward