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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
- 564 - David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.
Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.
David Rosenberg on Twitter
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieRosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Topics covered:
Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity
Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation
How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending
How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds
Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors
Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia
His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities
How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis
Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case
What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness
Timestamps:
00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity
05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending
10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect
17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook
22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks
27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities
31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio
36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus
42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar
48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027
53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested
58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornnessLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Fri, 18 Sep 2026 - 1h 01min - 563 - Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson on AI, Private Markets, and the Hidden Risks in Index Funds
Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson.
Franklin Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.comTopics covered:
Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionals
How Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgment
Building personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goals
How blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costs
Tokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chain
Why companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocks
Private credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private markets
How mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentration
Balancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term future
The value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to work
Timestamps:
00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO
06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions
10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading
15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management
20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access
24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work
29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs
35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending
41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation
46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early
51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Wed, 16 Sep 2026 - 55min - 562 - Jim Paulsen on the Weakening Economy, Tech Bear Market Risk and the Bull Market Built on Fear
Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts
Topics covered:
Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.
Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.
Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.
How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.
Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.
How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.
Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.
What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.
How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.
Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.
The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.
Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.
Timestamps:
00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim
05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings
09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading
16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs
20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?
26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks
31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears
36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street
41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds
47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning
51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity
58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correctionLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Mon, 14 Sep 2026 - 1h 01min - 561 - We Asked Fidelity's Ex-President What Made Peter Lynch Great — and Where Private Credit Risk Hides
Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks.
Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting.
Bob Pozen's website
https://www.bobpozen.comFollow Bob Pozen on Twitter
https://x.com/PozenResearch discussed:
Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experience
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120Rating Without Market Discipline
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credit
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958Topics covered:
What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's.
Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal.
Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat.
Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups.
How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets.
Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions.
How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans.
Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation.
Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment.
The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity.
Timestamps:
00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course
05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested
11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal
16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds
20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns
24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks
29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments
35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting
40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans
44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash
50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters
55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance
59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 - 1h 00min - 560 - Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones
John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.
The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.
High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bonds
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/Janus Henderson Investors
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/Topics covered:
Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevated
How the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond market
How AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cash
Why tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors take
The three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insurance
How duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's income
Why bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not trading
How Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative value
Why AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflation
How to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolio
Timestamps:
00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns
04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed
10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index
14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk
20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads
26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds
30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield
36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress
41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply
46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations
50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation
55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio
01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity riskLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Thu, 10 Sep 2026 - 1h 05min - 559 - All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong
Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets.
Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy.
Buy The Awesome Portfolio Book
https://amzn.to/3Tf3of7Topics covered:
Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500
How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Including home equity when measuring your overall asset allocation
Why volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisions
The life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining together
Why Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdowns
Index concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversification
The portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022
Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrency
Managing FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolio
Timestamps:
00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio
06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio
11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap
15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together
20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration
24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 2022
28:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 2022
34:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings
38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO
44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes
48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis
53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirementLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 - 56min - 558 - Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All End the Same Way?
Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models.
Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify
Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts
Topics covered:
Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy families
How overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behavior
Why rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching caution
How recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulation
The risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage apps
Leveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protection
AI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehicles
How one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisons
Why less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resources
Baseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role model
Timestamps:
00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy
05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins
10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize
16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash
21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs
25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow
29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure?
34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball
38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping
43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music?
47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models
51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing themLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sun, 06 Sep 2026 - 55min - 557 - Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps
Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles.
Dan Niles on X
https://x.com/DanielTNilesNiles Investment Management
https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.comTopics covered:
Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubble
The AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth, cloud revenue and operating margins
What the Situational Awareness unwind showed about leverage, forced selling and semiconductor volatility
Why hyperscaler AI revenue can accelerate even as free cash flow deteriorates
How data center opposition, electricity constraints and politics could slow the AI buildout
Where value may accrue across the AI stack and why Anthropic and Google could pressure OpenAI
Why China’s memory chip expansion could bring semiconductor cyclicality back faster than investors expect
How AI is reshaping software, including security, systems of record, gaming and usage-based pricing
Why the shift from free cash flow to debt financing matters for AI CapEx, Treasury yields and credit markets
Dan’s long-short investment process, Fed outlook, market risk framework and emphasis on downside protection
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:00 The signals Dan watches to know when the AI bubble is peaking
09:12 AI ROI, hyperscaler profits and the problem with negative free cash flow
14:19 Why data center politics could become a major risk to AI growth
21:28 Why semiconductors are still cyclical and China could change the supply picture
25:47 Why smart companies still get bubbles wrong and agentic AI could extend the cycle
30:43 Is software the next major casualty of AI disruption?
35:04 Why video games may be one of software’s safer AI categories
39:23 Can markets absorb the surge in AI debt and equity issuance?
45:28 Dan Niles’ long-short investment process and approach to downside protection
50:45 Why Dan thinks the Fed could raise rates in September
56:38 Why buy-and-hold can fail and downside protection mattersLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Thu, 03 Sep 2026 - 1h 00min - 556 - The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression
Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money.
Topics covered
Why credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaks
How the Fed's July rate decision changed the market narrative around inflation credibility
The Four Horsemen: insurance and shadow banking losses, capital crowding out, the Iran war and oil inflation, and a stretched consumer
Why insurer-funded private credit could become a systemic risk if fraud and losses reach major institutions
How government borrowing and AI data center financing could push long-term interest rates higher
Why fading fiscal stimulus, depleted savings and higher energy costs leave the consumer vulnerable
What financial repression means and how the Fed and Treasury could try to cap rates and prevent major losses
Why AI investment may be the key source of US economic growth if consumer activity stalls
How Perscient tracks narrative regimes, virality and shifts in common knowledge across markets
Why gold can act as an inverse measure of trust in central banks and how Ben is positioning around the risks
Timestamps
00:00 Intro: Credibility is a Teacup
04:00 How the July Fed decision damaged inflation credibility
08:21 The Four Horsemen that could threaten the financial system
14:00 Oil inflation, the Iran war and a stretched consumer
18:39 What financial repression means
23:20 How the Fed and Treasury could try to prevent a systemic crisis
28:21 Why AI CapEx may be the only major source of GDP growth
35:00 When lost Fed credibility became a confirmed market narrative
39:34 Narrative stock versus flow and how bursts can move prices
44:00 The return of bearish AI CapEx narratives
48:09 Why private credit may be easier to can-kick than the 2008 crisisLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Thu, 03 Sep 2026 - 51min - 555 - Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?
This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent.
Follow Last Call on Spotify
Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts
Topics covered
Why ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisions
Kevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheap
Why seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protection
Aahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent target
Why demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflation
How oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hike
Ben Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has responded
The four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curve
Brent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fear
Nvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stock
Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinking
Timestamps
00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency
07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced
11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects
16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced
20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem
25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure
33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed
40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore
44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole
49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax
53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs
57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity
01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI world
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 - 1h 02min - 554 - The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble
Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.
Kevin Muir on X
https://x.com/kevinmuirThe MacroTourist
https://themacrotourist.comTopics covered
Why stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yields
How Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation Twist
How replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal Reserve
Why the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signals
Jim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortized
Why stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutions
How daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloff
Why Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signals
Why platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychology
What 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertainty
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market
10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization
18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"
22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings
27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure
32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff
36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again
41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade
46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous
51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem
55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit
59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment
01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to seeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 - 1h 04min - 553 - Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice
Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech.
Topics covered:
Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now clogged
How leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returns
What publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discounts
How private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technology
Why AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantages
How ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatch
What AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of work
Why the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycle
Why traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S.
How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small caps
How R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech value
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math
09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade
13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat
17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending
23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected
30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk
34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI
38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors
44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value
51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest
55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and JapanLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 - 57min - 552 - Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently
Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades.
Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street
https://amzn.to/4hU28ImTopics coveredHow an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family, legacy and the scarcity of time
How Ian turned $20,000 into $120,000, then watched it fall to $8,000, and why that early win permanently shaped his risk tolerance
Ian's four-part survival framework: recession-resistant growth, strong balance sheets, conservative valuation and signs of intelligent fanaticism
Why balance-sheet strength is not just defensive and can let great companies act aggressively when competitors are forced to retreat
Why Ian targets roughly a 25 percent CAGR without relying on multiple expansion
The Judas goat lesson, talking your book on social media and why investors still have to do their own work
Why comparing short-term returns can corrupt an investing process and why Ian measures himself against the S&P 500 over a 10-year horizon
The five core stock-picking skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling and holding, plus why selling matters especially in microcaps
Why position sizing should account for initial excitement, and why Ian now starts much smaller than he did earlier in his career
Active patience, expanding your circle of competence and the difference between good, great and GOAT stock pickers
Why temperament evolves with experience, why leverage can destroy otherwise good investing, and why the best investors keep sharpening their edge
Why Ian is willing to back repeat-winner management teams before every piece of the business is fully in place
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
06:58 The $20,000 to $120,000 win and 90 percent loss
11:02 Ian Cassel's four-part survival framework
15:02 Why strong balance sheets create offensive optionality
19:03 The Judas goat and social media stock promotion
23:18 Why comparison is the enemy for stock pickers
29:39 The five core stock-picking skills
34:43 Active patience and knowing what you are looking for
39:28 Good, great and GOAT stock pickers
47:02 How investor temperament evolves over time
52:03 Leverage, situational awareness and surviving to compound
57:24 Betting on repeat-winner management before the numbers arriveLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Tue, 25 Aug 2026 - 1h 00min - 551 - The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First
Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect.
Topics covered:
Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycle
The return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bonds
Why volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadening
Immigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll data
Federal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentals
How the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital markets
Corporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergence
Kevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertainty
Attitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signal
The AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum trade
Margin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economy
S&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycle
Timestamps:
00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle
05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing
11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate
17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix
22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP
27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 2022
32:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations
37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum
41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be
45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap
50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market
55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues
60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scamsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 - 1h 01min - 550 - We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks
Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.
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Topics covered
Why rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock prices
Why Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisis
The "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset prices
How the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiums
Why Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shift
How Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditions
Why the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuance
Andy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROI
Why capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycle
How Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projects
The "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economy
What Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supply
Timestamps
00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together
00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough
00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates
00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy
00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation
00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy
00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift
00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run
00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure
00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth
00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth
00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stressLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Thu, 20 Aug 2026 - 1h 00min - 549 - We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers
Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.
Bob Robotti on X
https://x.com/BobRobottiRobotti & Company
https://www.robotti.comTopics covered
How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power
Why his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demand
How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets
Why North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle
Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples
Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companies
How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers
Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity
Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor
Why he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios
The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early
Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power
08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm
13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy
17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies
22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing
26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent
31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers
36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again
40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments
44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside
48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity
55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early
01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyoneLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 - 1h 07min - 548 - Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious
In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify
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Topics Covered
Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve
Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending
Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness
How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears
Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields
How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag
Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s
How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked
Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation
The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation
Timestamps
00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears
04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs
09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data
13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent
17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes
22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag
26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage
30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like
34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending
39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced
44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing
48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning
52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com
57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and techLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Fri, 14 Aug 2026 - 1h 00min - 547 - We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble
T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio.
Topics covered
Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff
Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels
What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital
Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand
Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue
Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain
How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout
Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom
Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes
AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth
How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection
Timestamps
00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison
04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway
12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI
17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value
21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge
28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt
36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical?
41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies
46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement
51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution
56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking frameworkLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Tue, 11 Aug 2026 - 1h 00min - 546 - David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market.
Topics covered
Why the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike
What slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflation
How AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economy
Why the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubble
How credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities do
What real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for gold
Why Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term trade
Why non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunity
How AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilities
Why CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. market
Why diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it most
What Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecasts
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike
16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation
25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks
36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks
41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector
48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration
54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus
1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisisLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sat, 08 Aug 2026 - 1h 03min - 545 - 4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang
Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction.
Variant Perception
https://www.variantperception.com/Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF
https://etf.variantperception.com/Topics covered
How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data
Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable
How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator
Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience
How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets
Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle
What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops
How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets
What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers
Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation
How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook
How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research
How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk
Timestamps
00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators
04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working
09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator
13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient
17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles?
21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions
26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red
30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical?
36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike
42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve
46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy
51:11 How AI is changing investment research
55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Thu, 06 Aug 2026 - 59min - 544 - The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish
Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis.
Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making.
Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders
https://amzn.to/4h9bi3eBrent Donnelly on X
https://x.com/donnelly_brentSpectra Markets
https://www.spectramarkets.comTopics covered:
Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading success
How traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video games
Why profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy them
How changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick pony
Why mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good idea
How trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken process
Why the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gains
Why rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligence
How Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation bias
The difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianism
Why avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading career
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box
04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas
08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades
12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge
16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon
21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value
25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning
29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders
33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating
37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information
41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge
45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore
50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control
55:00 Choosing family and health over markets
59:00 Why your first thought may not be your ownLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
Tue, 04 Aug 2026 - 1h 01min - 543 - A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call
On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance.
Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next.Follow Last Call on Spotify
Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts
Topics covered
Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks
Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth
Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up
Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending
How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses
Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention
What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows
How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom
Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins
Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility
Timestamps
00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sun, 02 Aug 2026 - 1h 11min - 542 - A War-Sized AI Bet. Private Credit Went All In. Will the Government End Up Owning It?
We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his team at Perscient have developed a unique system for measuring how those narratives emerge, spread and change.
In each episode, Ben and Matt Zeigler will examine the major issues facing investors through this narrative lens, helping listeners better understand the stories driving markets and what they could mean for the economy, policy and investment outcomes.
We have included this first episode in the Excess Returns feed. To continue receiving new episodes, subscribe to the Why Am I Reading This Now? podcast on all major podcast platforms using the links below.
Topics covered
Why AI CapEx and data center construction have become critical drivers of US economic growthHow hyperscalers are shifting from cash flow financing to debt, equity issuance and private creditWhy a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could threaten markets, the economy and the financial systemHow trillions of dollars in AI investment may crowd out consumer credit, business investment and government borrowingWhy data centers could consume a dramatically larger share of US electricity productionHow energy shortages could lead to higher utility costs, rationing and price controlsWhy the Iran war and higher oil prices may create a lasting increase in global energy costsHow Perscient tracks the return of bearish AI narratives and growing political opposition to data centersWhy both political parties may support government ownership, loan guarantees, bailouts and economic stimulusHow competition with China could become the narrative used to justify greater government control of the AI industryTimestamps
00:00 Introducing Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt
04:00 How debt, equity issuance and private credit are financing AI CapEx
08:06 Data center electricity demand and the energy crowding-out problem
13:21 Why an AI bailout may become politically inevitable
17:30 Oil shifts from a temporary shortage to a structural supply reduction
22:00 The bearish AI narrative returns as political opposition grows
26:00 Government ownership, price controls and the AI competition with ChinaFri, 31 Jul 2026 - 30min - 541 - He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7
Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets.
Rupert Mitchell on X
https://x.com/SquirrelMacroBlind Squirrel Macro
https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.comTopics covered
Why the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truth
How the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio
Why positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bonds
How AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. markets
Why Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadens
How China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore services
What a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assets
Why deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activism
The opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governance
Why Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setup
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals
08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era
13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade
17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating
22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike
30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities
34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts
38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity
43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage
49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value
53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the SquirrelLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.Wed, 29 Jul 2026 - 55min - 540 - The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Robert Hagstrom on What Wall Street Gets Wrong About Risk
On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.
They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett’s warning that the market’s casino can overwhelm its cathedral.
The Warren Buffett Portfolio – 25th Anniversary Edition
https://amzn.to/3TVXoruRobert Hagstrom on X
https://x.com/RobertGHagstromEquity Compass
https://www.equitycompass.com/Topics covered
Why Markowitz’s definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theory
Why Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing risk
What Hagstrom’s study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformance
The difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexing
How benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active management
What loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behavior
Why Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for markets
Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculation
The El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop working
Why options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casino
How to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earnings
Why permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investing
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance
11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration
17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors
22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory
26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets
32:28 Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor
37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction
42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts
46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike
51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs
56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics
01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focus investing
01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
Tue, 28 Jul 2026 - 1h 07min - 539 - Even God Would Be Fired | Wes Gray on Bubbles, AI Valuations and Why Size Was Never the Edge
Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence and the behavioral challenge of staying invested for the long term. He also breaks down Section 351 ETF exchanges, including how appreciated portfolios can move into an ETF without an immediate taxable sale, why direct-indexing portfolios are a major use case and how the ETF wrapper is reshaping asset management.
Wes Gray on X
https://x.com/alphaarchitectAlpha Architect
https://alphaarchitect.comETF Architect
https://etfarchitect.comLong-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?
https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdfEven God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor
https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdfTopics covered
Why high valuations may lower long-term expected returns without providing a reliable market-timing signal
How S&P 500 concentration creates a major large-cap, quality and growth factor bet
Why earnings and operating income may be better value metrics than book-to-market in an intangible economy
Why valuation may matter more than company size for long-only value investors
How unprofitable companies and low-quality stocks can distort small-cap value indexes
Whether AI has changed the historical relationship between growth and value investing
How AI may eliminate short-term trading edges while leaving long-horizon opportunities intact
Why even an investor with perfect foresight could suffer severe drawdowns and get fired
How passive investing flows may affect market prices and factor returns
How Section 351 exchanges can solve problems created by appreciated SMAs, tax-loss harvesting and direct indexing
The 25/50 diversification rules, cost-basis transfer and tax-deferral mechanics of ETF conversions
Why assets continue moving from mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts into ETFs
Why enduring underperformance may be necessary to earn higher long-term returns
Timestamps
00:00 Alpha Architect, ETF Architect and building an ETF platform
04:00 Can factor investors time a market bubble?
08:03 Intangible assets and the problems with book-to-market
13:42 The quality problem inside small-cap value indexes
18:18 Has technology changed the growth-versus-value equation?
23:25 Can AI create lasting investment alpha?
27:42 Are investors behaving better today?
34:39 How Section 351 ETF exchanges work
39:48 The diversification rules for tax-deferred ETF conversions
44:34 How cost basis and deferred taxes carry into the ETF
49:07 Mutual fund, hedge fund and SMA conversions
54:13 Why investors should embrace underperformanceLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sat, 25 Jul 2026 - 56min - 538 - Not a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.
Aahan Menon on X
https://x.com/AahanPrometheusPrometheus Research
https://www.prometheus-macro.comTopics covered
Why geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficult
What Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growth
Why AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economy
How household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profits
Why the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock prices
How oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest rates
Why demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflation
How technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicators
The value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro data
What macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversification
Timestamps
00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets
05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth
09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk
13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits
17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility
22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks
27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working
32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle
37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns
42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories
47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns
51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities
56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversifyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 - 57min - 537 - We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage.
The State of the AI Economy
https://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdfWhy AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Line
https://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-lineAzeem Azhar on X
https://x.com/azeemExponential View
https://www.exponentialview.co/Topics Covered
The size and growth rate of real generative AI demand
How the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applications
Why memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecks
Open-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assurance
Vertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applications
How AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providers
Why AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesign
What investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spending
Forward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-in
Which intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundant
Timestamps
00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom
06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack
10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition
15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck
20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI
24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack
28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus?
33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company
37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption
44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies?
49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy?
54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects?
59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable
01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education
01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideasLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 - 1h 15min - 536 - It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs
On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:
* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble
* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index
* Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning
* How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts
* Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples
* Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them
* How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment
* Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken
* Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put
* How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street
* Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficit
Timestamps:
00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks
04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market
08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy
13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top
18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble
23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts
27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers
31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth
36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter
40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?
44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse
48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality
52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlooking
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Sat, 18 Jul 2026 - 57min - 535 - Jack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders
Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.
He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.
Jack Schwager on X
https://x.com/jackschwagerMarket Wizards: The Next Generation
https://amzn.to/4psEOmHTopics covered
How video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of traders
How Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track records
Why return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratio
Lukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalability
Simon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 million
How breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary success
Kristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowups
Phil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk control
Rick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing month
Why financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solve
Lance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positions
What traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human nature
Timestamps
00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation
04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed
09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns
14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million
18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules
22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million
28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies
32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff
37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record
41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?
45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary
49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders
53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment
57:58 What the next generation of trading may look likeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Thu, 16 Jul 2026 - 1h 01min - 534 - The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report
Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.
Eric Pachman on X
https://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The People
https://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics covered
Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories
Why unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age Americans
The decline in participation among older workers and men
How healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growth
Why Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending risk
What occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare pay
The differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleading
How crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy prices
Why falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retail
What the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holders
How Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research tools
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis
11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy
18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth
24:18 Why inflation is moving higher
30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil
36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem
44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most
48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility
54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission
59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data
01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Tue, 14 Jul 2026 - 1h 06min - 533 - Jim Paulsen Sees a Correction Coming | The 33 Charts That Turned Him Cautious
Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.
Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market.
Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Main topics covered
• Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession
• What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market
• Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth
• How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions
• Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak
• The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy
• What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency
• Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline
• Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership
• Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market
• How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower
• Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlookTimestamps
00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction
04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking
08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating
13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy
17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth
21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street
25:54 How today’s AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble
30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops
34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations
39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum
43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks
47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3%
51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation
55:45 America’s long-term growth challenge and what could change itSat, 11 Jul 2026 - 58min - 532 - Big Uptrend. Tech Momentum Fading | Katie Stockton on the Rotation Investors Are Missing
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.
Katie Stockton on X
https://x.com/StocktonKatieFairlead Strategies
https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/Fairlead Funds
https://www.fairleadfunds.com/Main topics covered
Why the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum loss
How Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillator
Why the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsaw
What the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadership
How investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage risk
Why the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent Seven
The difference between market breadth and market leadership
Why sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotech
How sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timing
How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and gold
What the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S.
Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environment
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum
05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline
08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important
12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership
16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges
20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness
23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership
28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning
32:58 Why the market is in a technical void
36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors
40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns
46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S.
50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk
52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors nowThu, 09 Jul 2026 - 53min - 531 - We Asked a $1 Billion Quant Manager Why Concentration Isn't a Warning — and Small Caps Aren't Dead
Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market concentration, high valuations, IPO hype, factor investing and fixed income tax drag. We discuss why bubbles are hard to identify in real time, why diversification still matters, how valuation spreads shape expected returns, what AI capex does and does not tell us, and how investors can think about taxable bonds more efficiently.
Longview Research Partners
https://longviewresearchpartners.com/Main topics covered
Why evidence-based investing matters during bubble-like markets
The emotional reality of holding risk assets through painful periods
How to think about market concentration without jumping straight to bubble calls
Why global diversification changes the mega-cap dominance story
What high market valuations mean for financial planning and expected returns
Why wide valuation spreads may create a better setup for value stocks
What factor research says about AI capex and corporate investment
How Longview builds a diversified factor strategy around discount rates
Why implementation, trading flexibility and scale matter in factor investing
The small cap premium debate, IPOs, fallen angels and survivorship bias
Why AI may increase data mining risk in quantitative investing
How fixed income tax drag can quietly reduce after-tax returns
Timestamps
00:00 Why painful markets create future return premiums
04:00 Market concentration, AI winners and the value of diversification
09:40 How high valuations should influence financial planning
13:12 Why wide valuation spreads matter for value investors
14:01 What factor research says about AI capex
16:20 How Longview's EBI strategy looks for higher discount rates
18:58 Why Longview starts with the market and then tilts
21:45 Comparing 1999, 2008 and today through expected returns
24:33 Intangible assets, price-to-book and the limits of accounting adjustments
28:32 SpaceX, IPOs and how indexes handle new mega-cap companies
33:21 Why implementation and trading flexibility can affect returns
36:17 Passive flows, price elasticity and market price discovery
39:35 The small cap premium, IPOs and fallen angels
42:21 Are today's small caps lower quality than history?
46:01 Why AI may not uncover the next great factor premium
48:04 Why fixed income may be the most inefficient part of taxable portfolios
51:29 How LVIG tries to convert bond income into deferred capital appreciation
52:50 The after-tax return opportunity from tax deferral
54:58 Which investors may benefit most from tax-efficient fixed income
56:26 Where to learn more about Matt Zenz and LongviewTue, 07 Jul 2026 - 57min - 530 - The $600 Billion Loop | Jeff Klingelhofer on AI, the Return of Bonds and the Fed's Third Mandate
Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the high-end consumer and the broader economy. We discuss fixed income markets, Fed policy, inflation, private credit, the national debt, business cycle risk and how investors should think about bonds after the end of the zero-rate era.
Aristotle Pacific
https://www.aristotlepacific.com/Main topics covered
Why AI CapEx has become one of the biggest drivers of the US economy and stock market
How the high-end consumer, asset prices and AI spending have created a circular market setup
Why today’s fixed income market is very different from the zero-rate era
How bonds can serve as income, ballast and portfolio protection in the current environment
Why the Fed may care more about inflation expectations than markets expect
The Fed’s overlooked third mandate and what moderate long-term interest rates mean
How Kevin Warsh could change the Fed’s approach to forward guidance, inflation and the balance sheet
Why the business cycle is not dead, even if Fed intervention has lengthened it
What investors should understand about the national debt, higher rates and inflation
Why private credit is useful but not automatically better than public credit
How flexible fixed income investing can find opportunities across credit, securitized markets and capital structures
Why sentiment, not just fundamentals, drives market prices
Timestamps
00:00 AI CapEx, the stock market and the fragile economic loop
04:03 Why fixed income markets look different after zero rates
08:45 Does the Fed still have investors’ backs?
13:43 Are AI companies using dangerous forms of financing?
18:54 Why starting yields change the stock bond hedge
23:42 The Fed’s overlooked third mandate
29:03 Why inflation expectation stability may drive Fed policy
33:11 How Kevin Warsh may change the Fed regime
38:46 What a smaller Fed balance sheet could mean for asset prices
43:24 The national debt, higher rates and inflation
50:25 Why fixed income should be managed across silos
55:08 The one lesson for the average investorMon, 06 Jul 2026 - 56min - 529 - We Asked Meb Faber Why US Stocks Won for 250 Years — And If It Can Continue
Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market.
We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500.
Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market
https://amzn.to/4f1H5AwMeb Faber on X
https://x.com/MebFaberMain topics covered
Why America can be viewed as the ultimate venture capital success story
How joint stock companies, risk-taking and ownership helped shape the U.S. economy
Why studying 250 years of market history changes how investors think about volatility
The long-term case for stocks and why the time horizon matters so much
Why bear markets are a natural part of capitalism and long-term compounding
How U.S. market dominance happened and why it was not preordained
Why expensive valuations, low dividend yields and new supply may matter today
The role of dividends, buybacks, shareholder yield and reinvestment in long-term returns
Why diversification across global stocks, bonds and real assets can help investors stay invested
What gold, REITs and foreign stocks teach us about starting points and narratives
Why early investing, child investment accounts and compounding can change investor behavior
How creative destruction reshapes sectors, companies and the market leaders of each era
Why Meb remains optimistic about America while still cautious on parts of the U.S. market
Timestamps
00:00 Why America was not guaranteed to become the market winner
01:15 Meb Faber on writing Investing in America
02:25 America as the ultimate venture capital success story
06:22 How a culture of ownership helped the U.S. stock market compound
09:19 Why studying 250 years of market history matters
12:00 Why ownership is the core investing lesson
15:14 Bear markets, recessions and the danger of recent history
18:16 Why U.S. stocks beat the rest of the world by so much
22:20 Lessons from financial history that surprised Meb
27:05 Why stocks can lose for long periods and bonds can win
30:00 Why investors need to get used to being in a drawdown
33:24 Dividends, buybacks and the importance of reinvestment
37:27 Why gold and REITs beat the S&P 500 after 2000
40:55 How balanced portfolios survive different market regimes
43:03 The power of starting early and letting compounding work
48:16 Why global diversification matters outside the U.S.
50:40 Creative destruction, sector change and market leadership
55:20 Why Meb is still optimistic about investing in America
59:33 Where to find the book, Cambria and Meb onlineSun, 05 Jul 2026 - 1h 01min - 528 - Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?
In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk.
Follow Last Call on Spotify
Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts
Main topics covered
Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month
How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading
Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks
Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies
The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter
Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust
Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks
Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks
How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement
Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality
Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone
What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review
03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening
07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis
10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market
13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment
17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble?
20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him
23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected
29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX
33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset
38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge
42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing
48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation
55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles
59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors
01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episodeNo information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
Fri, 03 Jul 2026 - 1h 04min - 527 - The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies
Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.
Warren Pies on X
https://x.com/WarrenPies3Fourteen Research
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/Caliban
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/calibanMain topics covered
Which bearish AI arguments actually matter for investors
Why regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concern
How data center spending is crowding out housing investment
Why the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor market
What GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demand
Why open source AI is not yet replacing frontier models
How token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usage
Why semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycle
How semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicals
Why Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026
What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro risk
Why 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating risk
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth?
04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk
07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment
11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data
13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests
16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements
21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand
27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI
30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip
34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses?
38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market
42:15 What the oil shock means now
45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks
47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic?
50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities
54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen ResearchThu, 02 Jul 2026 - 55min - 526 - He Wrote the Book on Why Moats Fail | Ritavan on What Actually Compounds Instead
Ritavan joins Excess Returns to explain The System Gambit, a new framework for understanding competitive advantage, business strategy, AI disruption and long-term compounding. We discuss why traditional moat checklists can miss the real source of value, how companies can build systems competitors cannot copy, and what investors should look for when AI changes the game.
The System Gambit
https://amzn.to/4b0J32IMain topics covered
Why the traditional moat checklist can fail investors
The three requirements for a true System Gambit
How investors can evaluate business strategy from the outside
Why code is not always the moat in the age of AI
What history can teach investors about asymmetry and leverage
Why AI adoption is not the same as AI value creation
The difference between moving fast and understanding the game
Lessons from Nokia, ASML, Amazon and Walmart
How intangible investment and J curves can hide long-term value
Why the best companies build compounding systems competitors cannot copy
How investors can identify companies changing the game rather than optimizing the old one
Timestamps
00:00 Opening preview and introduction
04:00 The three ingredients of a System Gambit
08:49 Why code is not the moat in AI software
13:00 Skanderbeg and changing the rules of the game
17:00 Good moats, good narratives and asymmetric advantage
22:31 Microscope vs telescope as a lesson for AI
28:35 AI winners, losers and high dispersion markets
32:08 Signal quality, bottlenecks and why AI adoption is not enough
36:00 Nokia, agility and the failure to build a causal model
40:15 Why understanding the game beats speed
44:00 Intangible investment, the J curve and ASML's hidden edge
49:54 The contrarian AI thesis behind The System Gambit
54:00 How to recognize a real System Gambit
58:27 Amazon, Walmart and multi-paradigm compounding
1:03:00 Prime, FBA and platform leverage
1:07:00 Walmart's answer to Amazon
1:11:06 Closing thoughts and where to find Ritavan
Wed, 01 Jul 2026 - 1h 11min - 525 - The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated
On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades.
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The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Game
Main topics covered
Why SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor discipline
How Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winner
Why great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong price
The danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysis
Why many AI features may not create real customer value
What the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeouts
Why investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptional
How to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impact
Why capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scale
How to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trust
Why the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the way
What rational exuberance might look like for long-term investors
Timestamps
00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing
04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much
08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work
12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge
16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real
21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature
25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations
29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights
34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation
38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies
43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market
47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns
52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance
56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game
Sat, 27 Jun 2026 - 58min - 524 - We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong
Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supply from IPOs, GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts, international stocks, benchmark-free allocation and what private equity investors may be missing.
7 YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECAST
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2026_gmo7yearassetclassforecast/
WHAT BARBARIANS LIKE TO TAKE PRIVATE
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-what-barbarians-like-to-take-private_gmoquarterlyletter/
THE CASE FOR LIQUID ALTERNATIVES
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-case-for-liquid-alternatives-in-todays-environment_insights/
Main topics covered
Why GMO sees the AI boom as a bubble investors may be able to navigate
The difference between easy bubbles and hard bubbles in portfolio construction
Lessons from the internet bubble, the global financial crisis and the 2021 duration bubble
Why today’s market may be an earnings bubble, not just a valuation bubble
How AI data center spending affects corporate profits before depreciation shows up
Why transformational technologies do not always reward the companies building them
The risk of circular financing, debt-funded AI spending and increasingly creative deal structures
How IPOs, share issuance and market supply can pressure stock returns
GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts and why international stocks look more attractive than U.S. stocks
Why private equity portfolios may contain large hidden bets on small, lower-quality companies
Timestamps
00:00 AI, earnings bubbles and market supply
00:58 Why Ben Inker thinks the AI bubble may be easier to navigate
02:43 What makes a bubble easy or hard for investors
08:12 Comparing risk and return in 2000, 2007, 2021 and today
14:42 Why optimizers and real clients see risk differently
17:02 What GMO learned from managing through past bubbles
19:08 How today compares to the 2000 internet bubble
20:00 Why this may be an earnings bubble
23:34 Semiconductors, memory makers and the capital cycle
25:00 How AI CapEx compares to railroads, electricity and fiber optics
29:33 Debt, circular financing and strange AI deals
34:32 Why massive stock issuance could challenge the market
40:00 How GMO builds seven-year asset class return forecasts
41:40 Why interest rates change fair value for stocks and bonds
45:32 Why international, value and small-cap stocks look more attractive
49:06 The case for a benchmark-free portfolio
55:21 What 700 leveraged buyouts reveal about private equity
01:02:00 How public portfolios can offset private equity risks
01:03:37 Why investors need to understand what they are paid for
01:08:27 Closing thoughtsWed, 24 Jun 2026 - 1h 09min - 523 - Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith
Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China and India, the impact of the dollar, quality investing, valuation, and how active investors can think about opportunity in a world shaped by AI disruption and geopolitical change.
William Blair Investment Management
https://im.williamblair.com/The Problem With Quality
https://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-qualityTopics covered:
Why emerging markets are not one single trade
How AI capex is reshaping EM indexes and performance
Why Korea, Taiwan and China are central to the AI supply chain
The role of the US dollar in emerging market returns
Why EM index concentration is higher than many investors realize
What past innovation cycles can teach us about the AI buildout
How AI is changing the definition of quality investing
Why China’s manufacturing strength creates both opportunity and risk
The long-term case for India despite high valuations
How William Blair evaluates quality, trajectory and underappreciation
Why valuation in emerging markets requires more than simple multiples
The one investing lesson Ian Smith would teach the average investor
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:10 Why emerging markets are not one market
08:37 Why EM is underrepresented in global indexes
13:16 How the dollar impacts emerging market returns
18:37 AI capex, picks and shovels, and EM supply chains
24:17 How William Blair is using AI in the investment process
28:30 Why quality and growth have decoupled in emerging markets
33:19 Why AI disruption creates opportunity for active managers
37:30 China’s overcapacity, competition and global manufacturing edge
42:00 India’s long-term growth drivers and valuation challenge
47:00 Finding underappreciated quality in EM stocks
52:01 Deglobalization, China and the future of global trade
56:09 The one lesson Ian Smith would teach investors
Mon, 22 Jun 2026 - 57min - 522 - The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.
Tobias Carlisle on X
https://x.com/GreenbackdAcquirers Funds
https://acquirersfunds.com/Topics covered:
Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocks
The case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycle
Why equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shift
Whether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumers
The parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildouts
How AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investment
What the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychology
Why base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platforms
How disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industries
The energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matter
How Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEP
Why quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costs
Timestamps:
00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers
04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns
08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal
14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms
19:47 Who gets the profits from AI?
23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race
28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply
31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates
35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?
36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles
41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade
45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions
47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios
54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investingSat, 20 Jun 2026 - 58min - 521 - The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to break down how to value SpaceX, AI companies, intangible assets, and the future of value investing.
We discuss why big markets do not automatically create big value, how AI CapEx is changing the character of major technology companies, and why the best investment stories still have to connect to the numbers.
Topics covered:
Valuing SpaceX after its IPO and why price matters even for great companies
How Starlink, space launch, and xAI fit into SpaceX’s valuation story
Why total addressable market can mislead investors in AI and other disruptive industries
The problem with AI unit economics, data centers, power, water, and reinvestment needs
Why growth can destroy value when margins and returns on capital are weak
How intangible assets, R&D, future growth, and narratives should show up in valuation
The Big Market Delusion and how overconfidence drives boom and bust cycles
Why AI CapEx is different from the dot-com boom and could create broader risks
How AI is changing the character of the Magnificent Seven and semiconductor companies
Why value investing became rigid, ritualistic, and righteous, and how it can evolve
Timestamps:
00:00 Why great companies can still be bad investments
01:03 Introducing Aswath Damodaran and The Intangible Economy
01:49 SpaceX IPO, Starlink, xAI, and the challenge of valuing uncertainty
05:31 Why Starlink became the core of SpaceX’s current revenue
10:31 How Damodaran valued SpaceX across launch, connectivity, and AI
14:07 Why AI’s huge market may still have difficult unit economics
17:10 The tension between SpaceX competing in AI and renting data centers to competitors
20:00 Why valuation should use distributions instead of false precision
22:39 How stories and numbers work together in valuation
26:45 Why investors confuse promises, potential, and businesses
30:49 The Big Market Delusion and overconfidence in AI investing
33:02 Why the AI CapEx boom is different from the dot-com bubble
35:17 How AI infrastructure is changing the Magnificent Seven
38:36 Nvidia, Micron, semiconductors, and the risk of peak cycle earnings
41:00 Why the biggest AI market stories could be scary for society
43:37 AI disruption, labor markets, and the speed of technological change
46:30 Measuring which jobs and companies are most exposed to AI automation
49:00 Why AI cost structure may look more like Spotify than software
51:13 The unresolved business model questions for LLMs and AI agents
52:29 Why traditional value investing lost its edge
56:03 Passive investing, book value, and the blame game in value investing
58:13 Why rigid value investing is vulnerable to AI disruption
01:00:58 How value investing can adapt to intangible assets and uncertainty
01:02:21 Why any company can be a good investment at the right price
01:04:57 Why investing mistakes and track records are harder to judge than they look
Fri, 19 Jun 2026 - 1h 08min - 520 - Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble.
Follow First Principles on Spotify
Follow First Principles of Apple Podcasts
Topics covered:
Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public markets
How Andy evaluates whether the SpaceX IPO worked
Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher after pricing
The shift from stock buybacks to new equity issuance
Why AI CapEx is changing the supply and demand for shares
How hyperscaler spending is being funded through cash, bonds, and stock
The economic test for whether AI investment pays off
Disinflationary productivity growth versus labor displacement
Why the current economy is still supported by consumption
The role of wealth effects and consumer dissaving
Why falling oil prices may not eliminate inflation pressure
What Andy is watching in Fed policy, tariffs, AI CapEx, and equity issuance
How Kevin Warsh could approach rates, QT, and the Fed balance sheet
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and key themes
04:18 How Andy reads the SpaceX IPO
08:27 Why underwriters and regulators want IPOs to work
13:00 Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher
17:05 From stock buybacks to new equity supply
21:06 The 600 to 700 billion dollar shift in share supply
26:42 The economic test for AI tokens
32:09 Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth?
38:10 Is AI CapEx holding up the economy?
41:00 Wealth effects, dissaving, and the consumer
45:52 Oil prices, war, and inflation
49:07 Jalen Brunson, incentives, and long-term value
52:00 Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer
55:36 Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed balance sheet
58:42 Closing thoughtsNo information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
Tue, 16 Jun 2026 - 59min - 519 - The SpaceX IPO Meets a Huge Options Expiration | Brent Kochuba on What Comes Next
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts
Topics covered:
Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading
How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks
Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate
The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading
How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX
Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower
What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500
Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window
How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm
Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress
The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX
How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility
Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500
How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P
What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction
Timestamps:
00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup
05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO
07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand
12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals
17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX
22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze
28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration
33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency
37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm
41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels
46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress
50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup
57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone
58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO
01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setupSat, 13 Jun 2026 - 1h 08min - 518 - Mike Green on What Happens When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO in History
Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than the headline data suggests.
Michael Green Twitter
https://x.com/profplum99Simplify Asset Management
https://www.simplify.us/Topics covered:
Why the SpaceX IPO has turned passive investing into a mainstream market structure debate
How index committees and passive flows can influence individual stocks
Why low float, Nasdaq demand and passive buying could create unusual IPO dynamics
How new AI-related equity issuance could change the supply-demand balance in the stock market
The research behind passive flows, market impact and cap-weight concentration
Why Mike thinks passive buying explains more of mega-cap outperformance than AI fundamentals
The circular financing risk in AI, including Nvidia, CoreWeave, Google and Anthropic
Why buy-the-dip flows, ETFs, CTAs and vol control funds matter for market direction
How headline economic data can miss household stress, second jobs and lost purchasing power
What Mike is watching to see whether the AI trade and market narrative are starting to break
Why AI may be hugely valuable to consumers before it creates major business productivity gains
How companies may eventually redesign business models around AI rather than simply automate tasks
Why SpaceX wealth creation could seed the next generation of competitors
How inflation, gasoline prices, low savings and a K-shaped economy are affecting consumers
Timestamps:
00:00 Passive indices, AI profits and why this market feels different
04:07 Why SpaceX changed the passive investing debate
08:01 The research behind passive flows and market impact
12:16 Why Mike thinks passive flows explain mega-cap strength
16:18 ETF flows, buy-the-dip behavior and bubble dynamics
20:28 Why economic data can miss household stress
25:13 Bubble warnings, CAPE and what investors may be ignoring
29:17 AI as a consumer advice engine versus a productivity revolution
33:29 How businesses may redesign themselves around AI
37:51 Why IPO wealth may create the next generation of competitors
42:06 Mike Green’s upcoming book on passive investing and market structureThu, 11 Jun 2026 - 43min - 517 - We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector.
Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investmentshttps://amzn.to/4v8L7OfVanguard Megatrends Research Hubhttps://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html
Topics Covered:
AI as a potential general purpose technology
Why long-term megatrends can affect short-term market returns
The four forces shaping the next decade: technology, demographics, deficits and globalization
Why Vanguard believes AI could lift U.S. growth above consensus
How AI could offset aging demographics and rising debt
Why great technology cycles often include major stock market drawdowns
The difference between AI automation, augmentation and new industry creation
Why the next AI winners may be in healthcare, financial services and other service industries
The risk that AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate the outlook
How tariffs, oil prices and AI investment interact in the macro outlook
What AI could mean for 60/40 portfolios, value stocks, fixed income and international markets
Joe Davis’ lesson for average investors: the power of compoundingTimestamps:
00:00 Why every great technology eventually faces a market drawdown
04:28 The four megatrends shaping the economy
08:56 How megatrends explain short-term S&P 500 moves
13:22 Why AI may be in the 1996 or 1997 stage
18:29 Where the next AI winners could emerge
21:44 AI, fiscal deficits and the danger of kicking the can
26:17 Why 2% growth and 2% inflation may be unlikely
30:31 How to tell if AI augmentation is really working
33:19 AI, globalization and which countries could benefit
38:14 Why investors need a multi-factor macro scorecard
41:23 What AI means for the 60/40 portfolio
44:12 Joe Davis on investing, compounding and Vanguard’s megatrends researchTue, 09 Jun 2026 - 48min - 516 - The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float
On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.
They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure.
Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify
Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts
Dave Nadig
https://x.com/davenadigCameron Dawson
https://x.com/CameronDawsonTopics Covered:
Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of trading
How 100 times sales, no earnings and a $1.75 trillion valuation change the discussion
Why pre-IPO access, lockups, fees and vehicle structure matter for investors
How Palantir and Tesla frame the debate over extreme growth stock valuations
Why SpaceX could create unusual supply and demand pressure in the public market
How options trading, Nasdaq 100 inclusion and accelerated index rules could affect price discovery
Why free float matters and how a 4 percent float could become a 12 percent index adjustment
How much passive demand might chase SpaceX shares after the IPO
What the bubble triangle says about technology, speculation, money and credit
Why real earnings do not disprove a technology-driven bubble
How liquidity, private credit gates, IPO supply and buybacks could shape the next phase of the market
Why advisors need to help clients think through sizing, exit plans and safe access
Peak season travel, TikTok monoculture, Ocean City, Coheed and Cambria, and the lost art of CDs and mixtapes
Timestamps:
00:00 Why the first 30 days could be chaotic
04:00 Why everyone is talking about the SpaceX IPO
09:23 The market structure problem behind SpaceX
13:00 Options trading, small indexes and forced buying
17:18 How much passive demand could chase SpaceX
21:27 Why real earnings do not disprove a bubble
25:43 Liquidity, IPO supply and why bubbles can keep going
29:13 What advisors tell clients who want SpaceX
33:17 Fake SPVs, scams and safe access
37:39 Ocean City, peak season and Jersey Shore memories
41:39 Coheed and Cambria opening for Shinedown
45:44 Summer concerts, Bikini Kill, Weezer and The Shins
46:25 Cleaning out old cars and rediscovering CDs
50:10 Old iPods, underwater MP3 players and forgotten playlists
53:20 Mixtapes, liner notes and physical music culture
55:08 Where to find Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson
Sat, 06 Jun 2026 - 56min - 515 - Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction
Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts
Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Topics Covered
Why Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fall
The risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear market
How inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the market
Why the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin Warsh
The extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocks
Why AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainable
How tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectors
Why small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning sign
What past oil price peaks suggest about stock market corrections
Why investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth risk
How this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI
Timestamps
00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector
05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict
10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks
15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment
20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow
25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it
31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s
36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth
42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading
46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks
50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear
54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI
59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors nowFollow the Excess Returns podcasts:
https://excessreturnspod.com/Contact us:
excessreturnspod@gmail.com/No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
Thu, 04 Jun 2026 - 1h 01min - 514 - He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.
AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps
https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruptionKai Wu on X
https://x.com/ckaiwuSparkline Capital
https://www.sparklinecapital.com/Topics Covered:
Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the market
How AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value traps
Why Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloff
How patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruption
Why disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investing
Why value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological change
How intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companies
Why Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did not
How David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moats
Why AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivors
Why high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickers
Timestamps:
00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount
04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap
08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing
13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history?
14:55 Why disruption keeps stacking on retailers
17:10 How technological change disrupted traditional value investing
21:20 Why value investors need to know when not to apply old metrics
25:06 Why more of the market is exposed to innovation than ever before
27:07 What Walmart and The New York Times teach about surviving disruption
32:40 The four intangible moats that can protect companies
35:02 Why intangible value works better in disrupted industries
38:50 Apple, Amazon, Macy’s and the difference between disruptors and value traps
42:58 Applying intangible value to beaten-down software stocks
47:05 Why AI adoption alone is not enough
48:23 How AI could improve margins for surviving software companies
50:09 Which industries are adopting AI fastest
52:14 The software sweet spot: AI adoption plus intangible moats
53:53 Why disruption-scare stocks have extreme return dispersion
57:40 What happens when intangible value is applied to high-disruption stocks
01:01:42 Why “code is not the moat” for many software companiesTue, 02 Jun 2026 - 1h 03min - 513 - The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.
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Topics Covered:
Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns
How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade
Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals
Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect
What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds
Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash
Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue
Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth
Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm
How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market
05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter
10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop
15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time
20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases
24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out
30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism
34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers
38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets
42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative
47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk
52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes
56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO
01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure
01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunitySat, 30 May 2026 - 1h 08min - 512 - Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.
We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea.
Adam Parker on X
https://x.com/Adam_Parker_TriTrivariate Research
https://trivariateresearch.com/Trivector Research
https://www.trivectorresearch.comTopics covered:
Why “sell in May” and other calendar-based market rules often lack statistical support
Why Adam thinks the stock market leads the economy, not the other way around
How to think about whether today’s AI market is a bubble
Why the market may be trading on 2030 or 2031 fundamentals
When investors may start demanding returns on AI capital spending
Why AI could create new jobs rather than simply destroy existing ones
How large AI-related IPOs like SpaceX could affect index mechanics and portfolio flows
Why gross margin expansion is one of Adam’s most important stock selection factors
Why Adam remains cautious on software and prefers semiconductors over software
How valuation, quality, and other traditional factors may have changed since COVID
Why estimate achievability and incremental margins matter more than simple beats and misses
How to think about the Mag Seven, Nvidia, and market concentration
Why spinoffs may become more important in an AI-driven market
Why healthcare is Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea
Timestamps:
00:00 Why the market may be trading on future fundamentals
04:37 Is today’s stock market an AI bubble?
08:45 When AI capex needs to show real returns
13:00 How trillion-dollar IPOs could reshape index mechanics
19:00 Why gross margin expansion is such a powerful factor
23:00 Why software companies face AI-driven margin pressure
27:21 Where AI semiconductor exposure goes next
31:54 Why valuation does not work for stock picking
35:03 What has changed in markets since COVID
39:22 Estimate achievability and incremental margins
43:06 How to think about the Mag Seven and Nvidia
47:55 Why healthcare could be the biggest AI opportunityThu, 28 May 2026 - 49min - 511 - He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.
They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.
Standpoint Funds
https://www.standpointfunds.com/
Topics covered:
Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thrive after regime shifts
How systematic investors manage whipsaws, drawdowns, and emotional pressure
The trade-offs between short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend signals
Why Eric prefers simple, durable systems over complex models and constant tinkering
When it makes sense to remove a futures market from a systematic portfolio
Why trend following may earn a risk transfer premium from hedgers and commercial users
How copper producers, options markets, and insurance help explain trend following returns
Why rising interest rates and short bond positions can benefit managed futures
How trend following can pair with global equities in an all-weather portfolio
Why smoothing a trend strategy can reduce its value when investors need convexity most
The behavioral challenge of holding diversifiers that look wrong at the wrong time
Why investors and advisors often want alternatives but struggle to stick with them
Timestamps:
00:00 Why trend following opportunities appear under pressure
04:39 Pro-growth positioning before the whipsaw
09:32 Short-term vs long-term trend signals
13:46 The danger of tinkering with systematic strategies
18:43 What actually changes in a durable process
23:27 Rising rates, short bonds, and collateral yield
28:00 Copper hedging and why trend followers buy rising prices
32:00 Options, insurance, and risk transfer through time
36:28 Regime shifts and supply-demand imbalances
41:00 What investors choose when asset classes are anonymized
45:11 Building a portfolio for 30-year terminal wealth
50:06 Why portfolio construction is different than judging individual strategies
56:15 Why trend following and value investing require faith
01:00:42 Reducing errors vs chasing highlight-reel winners
01:05:36 Where to follow Eric and Standpoint
Tue, 26 May 2026 - 1h 06min - 510 - Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits
Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.
We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative investing.
Cliff Asness on X
https://x.com/CliffordAsnessAQR Capital Management
https://www.aqr.com/Papers Discussed
Bubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Bubble-Logic-Or-How-to-Learn-to-Stop-Worrying-and-Love-the-BullRubble Logic: What Did We Learn From the Great Stock Market Bubble?
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Rubble-LogicMy Top 10 Peeves
https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves.pdfVolatility Laundering
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Volatility-LaunderingI Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privates
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/I-Did-Not-Predict-What-is-Going-on-in-Privates(So) What If You Miss the Market's N Best Days?
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-DaysInternational Diversification Works (Eventually)
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Works-EventuallyInternational Diversification - Still Not Crazy after All These Years
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/International-Diversification-Still-Not-Crazy-after-All-These-YearsPerhaps the Most Important Essay I Will Ever Co Author
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Perhaps-the-Most-Important-Essay-I-Will-Ever-Co-AuthorMain topics covered:
How the dot-com bubble created its own internal logic
Why Dow 36,000 and Cisco message boards captured bubble thinking
What investors learned, and failed to learn, from the tech bubble
How today’s AI market compares with the dot-com era
Why long periods of underperformance make even good strategies hard to stick with
Why Cliff still defends volatility as a useful risk measure
Why “cash on the sidelines” is a misleading market narrative
How private equity smoothing can make risk look lower than it really is
Why the private markets debate is not a short-term prediction
Why the “missing the best 10 days” argument against market timing is incomplete
Why international diversification can still matter after decades of US outperformance
What pulling the goalie can teach investors about risk, incentives and career risk
How machine learning changes quant investing without eliminating economic intuition
Timestamps:
00:00 Why certainty is dangerous in investing
04:58 Why Bubble Logic never became a book
10:18 Cisco, Yahoo message boards and bubble psychology
14:16 Rubble Logic and the lessons investors failed to learn
18:04 What today’s AI market has in common with the dot-com bubble
22:23 Why the long run can lie to investors
26:02 Volatility, permanent loss of capital and real risk control
30:19 Why there is no cash on the sidelines
34:00 Private equity, smoothing and volatility laundering
39:47 Why Cliff did not call the private markets downturn
43:19 The flaw in the missing the best 10 days argument
49:00 Why international diversification still works eventually
53:35 Why crashes are global but lost decades are local
57:30 Pulling the goalie and asymmetric risk
01:01:00 Why coaches and investors avoid optimal decisions
01:07:36 Machine learning, overfitting and economic intuition
01:10:50 Leverage, short selling and derivatives in quant portfolios
01:16:26 Where to follow Cliff AsnessSat, 23 May 2026 - 1h 18min - 509 - He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.
Ben's Book
https://amzn.to/4dFHsQzBen Carlson on X
https://x.com/awealthofcsBen's Blog
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/Main topics covered:
Why risk is hard to define and always involves trade-offs
How vivid risks like sharks and headlines distort investor decision-making
Why doing nothing can be one of the hardest parts of investing
How inflation should be viewed through personal finance, human capital and long-term investing
Why stocks can be an inflation hedge even if they struggle during inflation spikes
Why waiting for the market coast to clear often fails
What the world’s worst market timer teaches about saving and staying invested
How loss aversion shapes investor behavior
What the Great Depression, bear markets and 30-year returns teach about long-term investing
Why there is no perfect portfolio and the best strategy is one you can actually stick with
Timestamps:
00:00 Ben Carlson on why risk and reward are attached
06:35 Doing nothing, action bias and better investing behavior
11:51 Inflation psychology and lessons from the 1970s
16:55 Why stocks can hedge inflation over the long run
21:07 Why waiting for the coast to clear is a market timing trap
26:30 Time horizons, loss aversion and portfolio behavior
31:49 Government rescue, left-tail risk and unintended consequences
35:54 Recessionary vs non-recessionary bear markets
42:09 Why the stock market and economy can diverge
47:24 Why compounding is about holding, not trading
51:37 Starting valuations, lost decades and future returns
55:40 Risk, reward and the biggest lesson for investors
Thu, 21 May 2026 - 57min - 508 - Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and where the biggest second-order opportunities may emerge.
Gene Munster on X
https://x.com/munster_geneDoug Clinton on X
https://x.com/dougclintonDeepwater Asset Management
https://www.deepwatermgmt.com/Intelligent Alpha
https://www.intelligentalpha.co/Main topics covered:
• Why Doug Clinton still thinks AI could become a bigger bubble than dot-com
• How Claude Code, Codex and frontier AI models are changing enterprise productivity
• The job disruption risk for knowledge workers and why AI adoption may become a survival skill
• Why the AI model race may not be winner-take-all
• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to evaluate stocks and earnings expectations
• Why GPT, Claude and DeepSeek perform differently across investing tasks
• The AI infrastructure boom and why energy may be one of the most underappreciated bottlenecks
• Hyperscaler CapEx, data centers and the investment case for continued AI spending
• How major AI IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could affect public markets
• Why space, orbital data centers and zero-gravity manufacturing could become real investment themesTimestamps:
00:00 AI, electricity and intelligence
04:33 Why new AI models changed the semiconductor trade
09:14 What AI means for knowledge worker jobs
14:03 Codex, Claude Code and Google’s AI challenge
18:50 OpenAI, Apple and the model capacity race
23:03 How many frontier AI models can survive?
27:18 Intelligent Alpha’s AI earnings benchmark
31:34 Why AI investors avoid emotional bias
35:33 Where to invest in the AI stack
39:00 Why AI energy demand is still underappreciated
43:43 How markets are judging hyperscaler AI spending
48:00 The investment opportunity in space
52:20 Final thoughts and closingTue, 19 May 2026 - 53min - 507 - Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but so essential.
The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World
https://groveatlantic.com/book/the-making-of-a-permabear/GMO
https://www.gmo.com/americas/Grantham Foundation
https://granthamfoundation.org/Topics covered:
Why Jeremy Grantham thinks the “permabear” label misses the point
The difference between being generally bearish and making a true “abandon ship” call
Mean reversion, valuation cycles, and why history still matters for investors
Why monopoly power helped reshape U.S. profit margins and market concentration
How AI could turn today’s monopoly winners into brutal competitors
Why new technology often becomes a cost of doing business rather than a permanent profit boost
How Grantham defines bubbles using two-sigma market events
Lessons from Japan, the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, and the 2021 speculative peak
Why institutional investors struggle to stick with value strategies during bubbles
The role of purpose, climate risk, toxicity, and long-term thinking in Grantham’s later career
The one lesson Grantham would teach ordinary investors about pessimism, realism, and time horizons
Timestamps:
00:00 Jeremy Grantham on unpleasant news and long-term investing
04:18 Reinvesting when terrified in 2009
08:43 Why Grantham told investors to abandon ship in 2008
10:28 Mean reversion and why history matters
14:00 Monopoly power, the Mag 7, and rising market concentration
17:14 Why AI is important but impossible to forecast
20:21 AI as a cost of doing business
21:24 From monopoly profits to brutal AI competition
24:05 How investors should think about valuation mean reversion
27:00 Why high returns on capital should eventually attract competition
29:47 How Grantham defines a market bubble
33:00 Japan’s extreme bubble and GMO’s zero weight decision
34:19 The dot-com bubble and the pain of being early
38:00 Grantham’s bubble warning signal in 2021
41:35 Whether today’s market is showing classic bubble behavior
43:00 QuantumScape, meme stocks, and speculative excess
46:35 How ChatGPT interrupted the 2022 bear market
49:12 Investor behavior and the cost of underperforming in a bubble
55:00 Purpose, philanthropy, climate risk, and useful work
01:01:03 The one lesson Grantham would teach average investorsSat, 16 May 2026 - 1h 04min - 506 - He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incentive conflicts, and correlations that can spike when markets are under stress.
Marc Rubinstein on X
https://x.com/MarcRubyNet Interest
https://www.netinterest.co/In this episode, we discuss:
Why the Fed says private credit redemption risks are limited and manageable
What Blue Owl’s redemption gates reveal about private credit liquidity
How post-2008 bank regulation pushed risk into private credit, hedge funds, trading firms, and exchanges
Why banks and private credit firms are both competitors and collaborators
The “layer cake” of leverage connecting banks, private credit, and borrowers
How HSBC’s loss tied to Atlas and MFS highlights hidden credit risks
Why insurance companies have become increasingly tied to private credit
Why rapid growth can be dangerous in financial businesses
What bank earnings show about the gap between weak consumer confidence and resilient spending
Why post-mortem reports from SVB, Credit Suisse, and other failures reveal what investors could not see in real time
How Revolut became one of the most interesting fintech stories in global banking
Why Marc calls this a potential golden age of arbitrage
What Jane Street, public BDC discounts, private asset valuations, and geopolitical fragmentation tell us about market structure
Why investors may still be too anchored to the 2008 banking playbook
Where Marc sees risk and opportunity in financials, banks, Europe, and non-bank financial institutions
Timestamps:
00:00 Private credit, hidden risks, and correlation spikes
05:03 Why Blue Owl became a private credit warning sign
10:20 How private credit grew after the 2008 financial crisis
15:30 Banks and private credit as financial “frenemies”
19:44 HSBC, Atlas, MFS, and the layer cake of leverage
24:11 Apollo, Athene, insurance assets, and private credit incentives
29:20 Why higher rates have not broken more of the financial system
33:40 Bank earnings, consumer confidence, and resilient spending
37:20 Why “I don’t know” can be a powerful signal from bank CEOs
41:46 Revolut and the ambition to build a truly global bank
47:38 Why growth can be dangerous in finance
52:19 Private assets, public BDC discounts, and arbitrage opportunities
56:34 What investors misunderstand about banks today
59:31 How Marc would think about financials as a long-short investorFri, 15 May 2026 - 1h 03min - 505 - Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan
First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build.
Andy Constan on X
https://x.com/dampedspringDamped Spring Advisors
https://dampedspring.com/Topics covered:
Why bubbles are easy to identify in hindsight but nearly impossible to define in real time
The difference between an expensive market and a true bubble regime
How new technologies, easy money, regulation, and exogenous shocks can create bubble conditions
Why AI may rhyme with the internet boom without being an exact repeat
The role of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s OpenAI investment, and semiconductor earnings expectations
What the 1987 crash, Japan, housing, bonds, and dot-com bubble can teach investors today
Why human nature, FOMO, and “keeping up with the Joneses” make bubbles so powerful
How the late-1990s Fed response to Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubble
Why tech’s current size in the economy and market may limit how far the AI boom can grow
How AI capex, hyperscaler spending, buybacks, debt issuance, and IPO supply could determine what happens next
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and the challenge of identifying bubbles
04:32 Expensive markets vs true bubble regimes
09:57 The five bubble episodes Andy compares to today
14:35 Root conditions, escalation events, and the peaking phase
19:20 Why the 1987 crash may also have been a bubble
24:25 The late-1990s setup and the Netscape Navigator moment
28:00 Crisis analogs, easy financial conditions, and today’s AI parallels
32:20 Long-Term Capital Management and rocket fuel for the tech bubble
36:11 Why tech’s market share matters more today than in the 1990s
43:18 Policy mistakes, subsidies, and how governments feed bubbles
47:42 Semiconductor earnings expectations and valuation risk
53:45 The AI capex chain and where the money has to come from
58:42 IPOs, corporate debt, and the financing risk behind the AI boom
01:02:27 What investors should do differently in a bubble regimeThu, 14 May 2026 - 1h 04min - 504 - He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble, China’s investment boom and the post-2008 interest rate regime suggest about the risks and opportunities today.
Topics covered:
How capital cycle theory applies to the AI data center boom
Why railway mania, autos, aircraft and the dot-com bubble offer lessons for today
Why markets often fund major technology transitions but fail to identify the winners
The prisoner’s dilemma driving hyperscaler AI spending
Whether AI demand can justify the supply being built
How GPU depreciation and AI capital spending may affect reported earnings
Why hallucinations and reliability may limit the total addressable market for large language models
The case for looking at AI anti-bubbles instead of shorting the bubble directly
Why China shows that strong GDP growth does not guarantee strong shareholder returns
How intangible capital, SaaS valuations and human capital fit into capital cycle analysis
Whether bubbles can be good for society while still being bad for investors
Why the long-term interest rate cycle may have changed
The role of gold in a world of expensive stocks, rising debt and vulnerable bonds
Timestamps:
00:00 Edward Chancellor on capital cycles, bubbles and AI
04:42 Why the railway mania became a classic overinvestment cycle
09:00 Why markets fund technology booms but often miss the winners
13:19 The prisoner’s dilemma behind AI spending
17:30 Will AI demand justify the supply being built
20:00 How capital spending can inflate profits before the bust
25:08 The AI Hindenburg moment and the limits of large language models
30:55 Why AI hype may exceed the proven technology
35:55 Why the anti-bubble may matter more than shorting AI
40:00 The energy transition bubble and the opportunity in overlooked assets
45:08 China’s lesson on GDP growth and shareholder returns
49:27 Big Booze, GLP-1s and the Lindy effect
54:23 Can intangible capital have its own capital cycle
59:54 SaaS valuations and the index creation warning signal
01:04:10 Why bubbles can help society but hurt investors
01:09:09 Why long-term rates may be in a new multi-decade cycle
01:14:07 Why Edward Chancellor still sees a role for goldTue, 12 May 2026 - 1h 17min - 503 - We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.
Guest Links
Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgammaSpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/Topics Covered
Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention
How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks
Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors
How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves
Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility
What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500
Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters
How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows
Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion
What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk
Timestamps
00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows
00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?
05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing
09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors
13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?
16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market
20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility
23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy
28:07 The market rally into May expiration
33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk
36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup
40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech
44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500
49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon
51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE
54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume
57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion
59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations
01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging
01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansionSun, 10 May 2026 - 1h 07min - 502 - We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead
Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research.
We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment, why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think, and how investors can think about diversification when mega-cap growth stocks dominate market returns.
Bridgeway Capital Management
https://bridgeway.com/I Know What You Did Last Summer
https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/i-know-what-you-did-last-summer/How Many Stocks Are Effectively in the S&P 500?
https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/how-many-stocks-are-effectively-in-the-sp500/Topics Covered
Why quantitative investing still needs human judgment and skepticism
The difference between smart beta and true multi-factor portfolio construction
How Bridgeway combines value, quality, sentiment and risk controls
Why the size premium may depend on how small-cap stocks are defined
Why recently fallen large caps and IPOs can distort small-cap research
How the small-cap universe has changed as companies stay private longer
How intangible assets affect traditional value and quality metrics
Why value can work in bursts and why timing factor rotations is so difficult
How concentrated the S&P 500 has become using the HHI framework
Why passive investing may create opportunities for active small-cap managers
How market neutral strategies can help investors manage equity market volatility
How AI can help with data, text analysis and trading without replacing investment judgment
Timestamps
00:00 Why fewer than 50 stocks are driving S&P 500 returns
01:04 Bridgeway’s evidence-based investing approach
02:59 Why quantitative models need human judgment
07:52 Smart beta vs multi-factor investing
11:32 How Bridgeway builds multi-factor portfolios
16:08 Rethinking the size premium
20:31 Has the small-cap universe gotten worse?
23:49 How intangibles change value investing
28:05 Does value still work?
30:09 Why value returns can be episodic
33:11 Why factor investors need patience
35:22 How concentrated is the S&P 500?
40:29 Factor strategies as portfolio diversifiers
41:41 Passive investing and market structure
44:27 Managing volatility with market neutral strategies
49:40 How systematic managers update their models
55:02 How Bridgeway is using AI
01:00:03 Elena’s biggest lesson for investorsFri, 08 May 2026 - 1h 02min - 501 - The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate
This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.
They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.
Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify
Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple
Topics Covered
Why being present with management teams may still be an investor edge in the age of AI
How microcap investing differs from small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap investing
Why talking to management can build conviction but also create bias
How Chris Mayer thinks about vertical market software, mission-critical systems and AI disruption
Why AI may become table stakes rather than a durable competitive advantage
How small companies can use AI to improve workflows, sales, inventory and productivity
Why many microcaps have short shelf lives and rarely become true long-term compounders
The role of intelligent fanatics, owner-operators and repeat winners in great investments
Why management transitions can create powerful microcap opportunities
The difference between being a great analyst and being a great investor
Why execution, position sizing, selling losers and holding winners matter more than hit rate
How Matt and Bogumil apply the lessons to AI, business quality and the limits of small business scalability
Timestamps
00:49 Introducing Chris Mayer, Ian Cassel and 100 Year Thinkers
04:59 Ian Cassel’s first management meeting and XM Satellite Radio
09:00 Why management meetings deepen understanding but can also mislead
14:32 Chris Mayer on the real edge in long-term investing
18:40 Mission-critical software, systems of record and AI disruption
22:45 How microcap companies are using AI in real businesses
27:02 AI as table stakes and when disruption creates opportunity
31:29 Why most microcaps have short shelf lives35:51 Finding Tom Brady before the market knows he is Tom Brady
40:53 Why owner-operators and intelligent fanatics matter
45:03 Second-in-command leaders, repeat winners and chips on shoulders
49:27 Analyst vs investor and the missing skills of stock picking
54:00 Using data to identify investor strengths, weaknesses and decision errors
58:14 Position sizing and letting small positions earn the right to grow
01:03:00 Peter Lynch, stocks as businesses and learning to think like an owner
01:07:00 AI, human judgment and the limits of automation
01:11:00 Why not every small business can become the next Facebook
01:15:00 Where to follow Bogumil and the 100 Year Thinkers series
Wed, 06 May 2026 - 1h 16min - 500 - We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.
Topics Covered
Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors
Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies
The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk
Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s
How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages
Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk
What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency
Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in
The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks
Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow
Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing
Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story
Timestamps
00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception
02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling
08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management
12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages
20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk
29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated
34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks
39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt
43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today
51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think
56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders
1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story
1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winnersMon, 04 May 2026 - 1h 10min - 499 - We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market
This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher.
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Topics Covered
Why markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical risk
The “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yet
How supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflation
Why pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting markets
The role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rally
Bull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioning
Why free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earnings
How options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatility
The AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadth
The growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the market
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and market overview
01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news
03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience
06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit
08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies
10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth
14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks
17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear
18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment
20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk
22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework
24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven
26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus
29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup
31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning
33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations
35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver
37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets
40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk
44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning
47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil
49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership
51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity
54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure
56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility
58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership
01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate
01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implicationsFri, 01 May 2026 - 1h 07min - 498 - The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market
This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks.
Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why many investors may be disappointed with passive index returns over the next decade.
Richard walks through the implications of rising import prices, global conflict, and deglobalization, and how these forces could drive a structural shift toward higher inflation and shorter-duration investing. He also explains why market concentration, AI enthusiasm, and capital flows may be setting up a broadening opportunity across overlooked areas of the market.
Follow Rich on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/RBAdvisorsCompany Website:
https://www.rbadvisors.comWhy investors in S&P 500 index funds may face disappointing long-term returns
The shift from exporting disinflation to importing inflation through global trade
How war and geopolitical conflict are influencing inflation expectations and markets
Why today’s environment resembles the 1960s “guns and butter” period more than the 1970s
The case for structurally higher inflation and a potential shift in Fed targets
Why shorter-duration assets, dividends, and cash flow matter more in inflationary regimes
The risks of overconcentration in AI and mega-cap growth stocks
How capital flows and valuation distortions create opportunities outside the Mag 7
The case for international equities and why investors are significantly underweight
Where Bernstein sees the most compelling long-term opportunities across sectors and regions
00:00 Intro and why index investors could be disappointed
00:01:13 War, inflation, and the impact of rising gasoline prices
00:02:40 Importing inflation and the role of global trade dynamics
00:03:33 1970s oil shock vs 1960s guns and butter comparison
00:05:00 Why today’s inflation environment may be less severe than the 1970s
00:06:30 Defense spending, tax cuts, and inflation expectations
00:08:54 Why Bernstein is taking the “over” on inflation and deficits
00:10:00 The case for a higher long-term inflation target
00:11:00 Why the Fed may resist changing its 2% inflation target
00:12:00 Deglobalization and the rise of global conflict
00:14:00 Global inflation dynamics and divergence across countries
00:15:21 Why cash and short-duration assets may outperform
00:17:00 Asset-liability mismatches and the endowment model stress
00:18:23 Market concentration and parallels to the dot-com bubble
00:20:00 AI as an economic story vs an investment story
00:21:00 Capital flows, valuation excess, and future return expectations
00:22:39 Why market broadening opportunities may emerge
00:24:19 Passive flows, ETFs, and market distortions
00:25:40 Where Bernstein sees sector opportunities today
00:27:34 The case for dividends in an inflationary environment
00:31:00 Why near-term cash flow matters more than long-term growth
00:33:07 Corporate behavior, capital allocation, and rising hurdle rates
00:36:02 Profit cycle strength and why the market should broaden
00:41:36 Evaluating IPOs and speculative investments
00:47:09 The risk of a lost decade for index investors
00:50:21 Gold, commodities, and portfolio diversification
00:53:48 Most attractive overlooked opportunities today
00:58:06 Biggest long-term risks and what keeps Bernstein up at nightWed, 29 Apr 2026 - 1h 02min - 497 - Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World
This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early.
Davis Advisors
https://www.davisadvisors.comTopics Covered
Why high valuations signal complacency even in an uncertain macro environment
The three major forces reshaping markets: higher cost of capital, deglobalization, and AI
How to identify durable and resilient businesses in a fragile world
Why growth and value are not opposites and how expectations drive opportunity
Lessons from past bubbles and why today may resemble 1999 in market structure
The hidden risks in passive investing and index concentration
Chris Davis’ five-part framework for investing in AI (winners, enablers, users, protected, disrupted)
Why most investors lose money by overpaying for growth and underestimating competition
The importance of management quality and “great people” in long-term investing success
Why the biggest investing mistakes are often the great companies you sell too early
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and key investing paradox on risk perception
02:45 Why today’s market reflects complacency despite uncertainty
05:20 Valuations, concentration, and optimism in current markets
08:52 Lessons from 1999 and how value investing can outperform in downturns
12:00 Durability, resilience, and why balance sheets matter more now
15:21 Kodak, disruption, and risks of passive investing
18:00 Perception vs reality of risk and behavioral mistakes
21:51 Market structure, moral hazard, and the “buy the dip” mindset
26:34 How investors should think about AI as a long-term technology shift
29:30 Why picking early AI winners is dangerous
33:00 The role of enablers like semiconductors, energy, and infrastructure
36:00 AI users and which companies benefit most from adoption
38:00 Businesses protected from disruption vs “walking dead” companies
42:00 The biggest investing mistake: selling great companies too early
46:00 Portfolio concentration and lessons from real-world experience
50:00 Berkshire Hathaway, long-term culture, and durable business models
54:00 Learning from mistakes: Costco case study
57:00 The importance of management and why people matter more than investors thinkMon, 27 Apr 2026 - 1h 02min - 496 - Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think
This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors.
Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should think about momentum, quality, and diversification in a rapidly changing environment.
Papers and Resources Discussed:
Risks Hiding in Plain Sight
https://www.informedmomentum.com/risks-hiding-in-plain-sight-how-the-dominance-of-passive-investing-is-reshaping-market-risk/Is Quality Broken?
https://www.informedmomentum.com/is-quality-broken-ai-driven-disruption-is-testing-standard-definitions-of-quality/Buy High, Sell Higher
https://www.informedmomentum.com/buy-high-sell-higher/Topics Covered:
The hidden divergence beneath index performance and why the market isn’t as stable as it looksWhy value and momentum are working together—and what that signals about market broadeningHow AI and deglobalization are driving a major regime shift in marketsWhy momentum investors ignore narratives and focus purely on what’s workingThe structural risks created by the rise of passive investing and index concentrationHow tracking error replaced real risk—and why that may be dangerousWhy quality stocks (especially software) are under pressure in the AI eraThe key insight behind 52-week highs as a powerful momentum signalWhy buying stocks near highs works despite investor intuitionHow momentum strategies adapt to changing leadership and market regimesThe importance of combining factors like value, momentum, and quality for long-term successTimestamps:
00:00 Intro and major market shifts
01:32 Market divergence beneath the surface
03:00 Factor performance and broadening market trends
05:13 Why market concentration hurts factor investing
06:48 AI and deglobalization as structural drivers
08:14 Does this environment change how you invest?
11:02 Has the market sped up? Momentum implications
14:00 Passive investing and hidden structural risks
17:00 Tracking error vs real risk in portfolios
19:00 AI as a potential change agent for markets
21:09 How passive flows impact factor investing
24:00 What defines “quality” in factor investing
27:04 Why software and quality are under pressure
29:13 AI disruption and changing expectations
32:20 How to evaluate factor underperformance
34:35 Comparing today’s market to the 1990s
37:38 Buy high, sell higher: 52-week highs
41:00 52-week highs vs traditional momentum
43:20 Combining signals for better outcomes
46:00 Why 52-week highs improve downside protection
48:17 What momentum is picking up today
50:21 Misconceptions about momentum and growth
52:12 Timing and implementation of momentum
54:18 Momentum reversals and market behavior
57:17 Future research and improving momentum signalsFri, 24 Apr 2026 - 59min - 495 - The Secular Plateau | Chris Bloomstran on Why We May Be at Peak Valuations
This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.
Semper Augustus Investments
https://www.semperaugustus.comTopics covered:
Why extreme market concentration in the Mag 7 may create long-term risks
The concept of a “secular plateau” vs a market peak
How AI capex could become a classic capital cycle with poor returns
Why hyperscaler spending may not translate into shareholder profits
The hidden risks of leverage both on and off balance sheets
Why buy-and-hold investing is harder than it seems in practice
How valuation discipline drives long-term investment outcomes
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position and what it signals about opportunity
Why capital allocation matters more than growth narratives
Lessons from past bubbles including railroads, fiber, and the Nifty Fifty
The fragility of life and how it shapes investing priorities
The importance of independent thinking in the age of AI
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
05:12 The “Both Sides Now” framework and AI theme
09:03 Secular peak vs secular plateau in markets
13:08 Leverage risks and balance sheet quality
17:42 Why passive investors are more concentrated than they think
21:12 The limits of long-term compounding and disruption risk
25:06 Why valuation matters more than “forever stocks”
29:10 Portfolio construction and return on capital differences
33:18 AI capex boom and capital cycle parallels
37:05 Why hyperscaler spending may not generate adequate returns
41:12 The math problem behind AI investment returns
45:10 Competition, redundancy, and pricing pressure in AI
49:02 Is AI an existential risk for big tech?
52:06 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash and Apple sales
56:08 Capital allocation lessons from Coca-Cola vs Apple
59:20 What Berkshire’s cash signals about future opportunities
01:02:10 The fragility of life and investing priorities
01:05:28 Final lessons for investors: reading, skepticism, and independent thinkingWed, 22 Apr 2026 - 1h 08min - 494 - We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead
This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume.
Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also outlines how he is positioning portfolios in response to these risks.
Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.comTopics Covered
Why markets may be a “bubble in behavior,” not technology
The equity risk premium at zero and what that implies for future returns
CAPE valuations and why long-term returns could be flat to negative
The shift from economy driving markets to markets driving the economy
The “silent contraction” beneath strong GDP headlines
AI-driven productivity vs weakening labor markets
The K-shaped economy across consumers, jobs, and capital spending
Why the savings rate is the most important overlooked economic variable
Inflation outlook: why this shock may be disinflationary, not persistent
Portfolio construction in a low-return, high-uncertainty environment
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:42 Cycle thinking vs “perma bear” label
09:58 Learning probabilistic thinking and Plan B
15:52 The “sixth mega bubble” and investor behavior
20:36 Why valuations imply poor forward returns
25:08 The “silent contraction” beneath headline data
29:14 The savings rate and equity wealth effect
33:12 Fiscal deficits and artificial economic support
38:28 2027 outlook and shifting probabilities
43:02 Why expectations matter more than recession calls
45:40 Inflation shock vs wage-driven inflation
49:22 Productivity boom and disinflation forces
53:10 Why inflation may fall faster than expected
55:04 Portfolio positioning and diversification strategy
01:00:12 Tactical vs thematic investing framework
01:03:10 Final thoughts on risk, probabilities, and marketsSun, 19 Apr 2026 - 1h 05min - 493 - The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market
Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today.
Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a detailed look at how a professional trader navigates uncertainty.
Spectra Markets
https://www.spectramarkets.comTopics covered:
Why stocks need a steady stream of bad news to go down and what drives rallies
The impact of constant policy shocks on volatility, positioning, and mean reversion
How to distinguish structural trends from short-term trading opportunities
The “wall of worry” and why markets can ignore negative headlines
The importance of Mag 7 earnings and concentration in today’s market
How traders use reassessment triggers like the 200-day moving average
The complexity of central bank reactions to oil shocks and inflation
Why bonds still matter as a recession hedge despite recent correlation breakdowns
How positioning—not fundamentals—drives moves in the U.S. dollar
Gold, silver, and Bitcoin through the lens of flows, retail behavior, and debasement
The role of overconfidence and risk management in trading success
Brent’s journaling process and how writing clarifies thinking
How to identify asymmetric trades using potential headline scenarios
Why edges in markets are temporary and require constant adaptation
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:05 Government policy shocks and market impact
05:10 Volatility, shocks, and trading frameworks
09:05 Why the economy remains resilient despite rate hikes
13:05 Market concentration and the importance of big tech earnings
16:05 The “steady stream of bad news” framework for stocks
18:30 Using the 200-day moving average and pattern recognition
22:10 Central banks, oil shocks, and inflation dynamics
24:35 Stocks vs bonds and the 60/40 portfolio outlook
26:05 Why dollar moves depend on positioning, not narratives
30:55 Gold, silver, and the retail-driven momentum cycle
34:05 The debasement trade and long-term gold thesis
38:10 Rationality vs overconfidence in trading
41:05 Risk management, journaling, and avoiding blowups
46:00 Thinking in probabilities, positioning, and market expectations
50:55 Journaling as a tool for clarity and discipline
55:00 Why traders lose discipline when over-earning
59:10 Brent’s new book and evolving trading frameworks
01:03:30 Where to find Brent and closing thoughtsFri, 17 Apr 2026 - 1h 04min - 492 - The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide
Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders.
Follow Liz Ann on Twitter
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSondersLiz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered
How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy
Why the US being a “net energy exporter” doesn’t protect investors
The hidden bear market beneath index-level resilience
Rotation vs. correction and what it means for portfolios
The rise of retail traders and the shift away from “dumb money”
Why better or worse data matters more than good or bad data
The K-shaped economy and its impact on consumption and markets
AI’s three phases and its real impact on jobs and productivity
Why this earnings season may be more important than usual
The shifting role of the Mag 7 and broader market participation
Why the bond market may be the true driver of equities
Risks in credit markets and what investors should watch
Labor market dynamics and challenges for younger workers
How investors and young professionals should think about AI
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and current market environment
04:05 Why the US isn’t immune to oil price shocks
05:35 Lessons from past oil shocks and inflation
07:22 Why markets seem resilient despite macro risks
08:00 The hidden drawdowns beneath the index surface
10:13 Rolling recessions and sector-level weakness
10:37 Are investors conditioned to buy every dip
12:58 What happens when the dip doesn’t get bought
14:36 Valuations, corrections, and market structure
15:12 Sentiment analysis in a new market regime
18:50 Retail investors outperforming institutions
20:08 Better or worse vs good or bad economic data
23:00 How markets anticipate economic turning points
25:22 Understanding the K-shaped economy
28:00 Wealth effects and risks from equity declines
29:09 AI as a transformative force vs macro risks
30:00 The three phases of AI development
33:04 Why this earnings season matters more
34:00 Earnings revisions and sector concentration
36:00 The future of Mag 7 leadership vs the rest of the market
38:00 Contribution vs performance in index returns
40:00 Sector sensitivity to inflation and supply chains
42:00 Fundamentals vs speculation in small caps
44:21 The Fed’s dilemma in an oil shock environment
48:00 Why the bond market is driving equities
50:05 Credit markets and systemic risk signals
53:26 Lessons from past bond market dislocations
54:19 Labor market challenges and younger workers
57:00 Career advice in the age of AI
59:26 How Liz Ann uses AI in her research process
01:01:00 Closing thoughts and where to follow Liz AnnWed, 15 Apr 2026 - 1h 04min - 491 - The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next
This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect.
We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the role of gold, and why markets are always harder in real time than they appear in hindsight.
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
https://www.grantspub.com/Topics Covered:
Why war is inherently inflationary and how it strains the productive economy
The difference between measured economic stability and underlying systemic risks
How inflation shifted from a wartime phenomenon to a permanent feature of modern monetary policy
The Fed’s 2% inflation target as a structural form of currency debasement
Lessons from the 1970s inflation and oil shocks vs. today’s environment
Why inflation is a ratchet that erodes purchasing power over time
The importance of trust in credit markets and growing risks in private credit structures
Public debt, Treasury market dynamics, and early signs of strain in government financing
Historical parallels between AI investment and past technological booms like the internet
The role of gold as a hedge against (and investment in) monetary instability
The durability of the US dollar despite long-term structural concerns
Why investing is always difficult in the present—even when it looks obvious in hindsight
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and Jim Grant on the true causes of inflation
04:04 Why war drives sustained inflation and current geopolitical risks
08:00 Historical perspective on inflation before the 1970s
12:00 Oil shocks, Volcker, and lessons from past inflation cycles
16:00 Why inflation never reverses and purchasing power declines
20:00 Trust in markets and the foundation of credit systems
24:00 Private credit risks and the modern credit cycle
28:00 Public debt, Treasury markets, and fiscal sustainability concerns
32:00 Treasury auctions, yields, and early warning signs in bonds
35:25 AI capex boom and lessons from past technological bubbles
38:17 Air conditioning, internet bubbles, and delayed economic payoffs
40:00 The Fed, Treasury, and hidden financial interdependence
44:14 Asset allocation, gold, and monetary disruption
48:44 The dollar’s strength and global dominance
53:41 Why investing is always difficult in real time
59:00 Advice on markets, newsletters, and enduring uncertaintyMon, 13 Apr 2026 - 1h 03min - 490 - The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify
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This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.
They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration.
Topics covered:
Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty
The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly
How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices
Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings
The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning
Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets
The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility
What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning
The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges
Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside
Timestamps:
00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos
04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations
07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements
11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points
13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship
15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior
18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls
20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones
22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead
24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance
27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows
30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship
33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility
34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation
36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx
37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock
39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever
41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind
43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy
45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatilityFor more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:
https://spotgamma.comFollow Brent on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/spotgammaSat, 11 Apr 2026 - 1h 09min - 489 - The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype
This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape.
Tom walks through his “Hype vs High Conviction” framework, explaining why identifying the right layer of the AI ecosystem may matter more than simply betting on the theme itself, and why balance sheets, durability, and capital allocation remain critical even in the most exciting growth environments.
Hype vs High Conviction
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/hype-vs-high-conviction_insights/
Topics Covered:
Why AI may be the most important investment decision today
The four-layer AI stack: applications, LLMs, hyperscalers, and infrastructure
Why investors confuse secular trends with investable opportunities
Following the money through the AI value chain
The hidden risks of investing lower in the stack
Why today’s tech leaders differ from the dot-com era
Growth vs maintenance capex and what it means for AI economics
Why software may be more resilient than markets think
How GMO defines “quality” and why it matters in volatile markets
Portfolio construction: where GMO is investing (and avoiding) in AI
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and framing the AI investment debate
00:00:55 Tom Hancock background and focus on quality investing
00:02:00 What investors are getting wrong about AI
00:03:23 Breaking down the four layers of the AI ecosystem
00:06:45 Applications vs infrastructure: where value may accrue
00:08:45 Why predicting AI winners is still difficult
00:11:00 Following the cash flows through the AI stack
00:13:00 Why AI funding is more stable than past tech bubbles
00:16:00 Big Tech strategy differences and capital allocation decisions
00:17:34 Are today’s tech companies higher quality than in 1999?
00:19:00 Growth vs maintenance capex and implications for Nvidia and others
00:22:00 Depreciation, chip lifecycles, and hidden risks in capex assumptions
00:24:00 Capital intensity vs quality: when heavy investment is a feature
00:27:00 Why incumbents may benefit most from AI
00:28:30 Risks in the LLM layer and potential commoditization
00:30:10 Software disruption fears: overdone or justified?
00:34:06 Defining “quality” in investing
00:36:00 Balance sheets vs return on capital
00:38:32 Why GMO sold Oracle and the risks of leverage
00:40:18 What happens if AI spending slows down
00:41:35 Where the biggest risks are in the AI stack
00:44:26 Where GMO is positioned vs the S&P 500
00:48:00 How new ideas enter a quality portfolio
00:51:00 Sell discipline and portfolio turnover
00:53:00 International vs US quality investingThu, 09 Apr 2026 - 58min - 488 - The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time
This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface.
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts
Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail signal to private credit stress, productivity trends, and policy uncertainty, offering a data-driven perspective on where markets and the economy may be headed next.
Paulsen Perspectives Substack
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.comTopics Covered
Why the recent oil spike hasn’t impacted inflation and interest rates as expected
Slowing economic growth vs. recession risk and what the Fed might do next
The Walmart vs luxury retail indicator and what it signals about the economy
Private credit risks and how they differ from traditional credit crises
Why many indicators point to a new bull market rather than a bear
The role of sentiment, volatility, and uncertainty in driving market returns
Market rotation from mega-cap “new era” stocks to broader market leadership
Corporate profits divergence and the opportunity in the rest of the economy
Liquidity, cash levels, and positioning as potential fuel for markets
Productivity trends and whether AI-driven gains are real or overstated
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and current macro backdrop
01:05 Oil spike and limited impact on yields and inflation
04:45 Growth outlook and why recession may still be avoided
07:10 Fed policy and the stagflation question
10:15 Walmart vs luxury retail indicator explained
13:40 Private credit stress vs traditional credit cycles
17:00 Why this isn’t 2008 and how balance sheets differ
19:50 Private credit risks and market spillover effects
22:15 Bear market fears vs signs of a new bull
23:45 Consumer confidence and its impact on returns
25:05 Oil spikes historically as buy signals
26:15 VIX, volatility, and market bottoms
27:05 Yield curve steepening and market implications
28:05 Sentiment indicators and what they really reflect
30:00 Market rotation and broadening beyond mega caps
32:45 Passing the baton from tech to broader markets
35:15 Corporate profits divergence and future potential
37:00 Policy uncertainty and why it can be bullish
42:05 Liquidity, cash levels, and risk allocation
43:20 Options positioning and put-call signals
44:05 Gold vs commodities and risk appetite
45:10 Consumer credit contraction and market signals
46:20 Polymarket recession probabilities as sentiment
47:30 Economic sentiment collapse and contrarian signals
48:10 Interest rate expectations and positioning
49:05 Unemployment trends and historical market bottoms
50:25 Productivity trends and AI impact on the economyWed, 08 Apr 2026 - 59min - 487 - The Inevitability No One Sees | $11 Billion Tech Manager on What Investors Miss About AI
This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and disruption risk.
Tony explains why AI is fundamentally changing the cost of intelligence, how agentic systems could reshape software and labor markets, and why the current AI buildout may differ from past tech cycles. The discussion also dives into where we are in the AI cycle, how to think about the Mag 7, and what investors may be missing across the tech stack.
T. Rowe Price Science and Technology Fund
https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/science-and-technology-fund.htmlTopics CoveredWhat it means to invest in “inevitabilities” and separating signal from noise in markets
Why AI and compute demand represent a structural shift similar to past tech waves
The rise of agentic AI and how it could transform software and productivity
Whether AI is underappreciated or already priced into markets
The “multiple moons” idea and why AI may not be a winner-take-all market
How AI could reshape the labor market, productivity, and economic growth
The AI CapEx debate and why this cycle may differ from the dot-com buildout
Where we are in the AI cycle: training vs inferencing and deployment phase
The impact of AI on software companies and the innovator’s dilemma
How semiconductors, memory, and infrastructure remain key bottlenecks
The changing nature of the Mag 7 and capital intensity in AI
Tony’s portfolio construction framework across compounders, emerging tech, and value
How he generates ideas using S-curve adoption and economic bottlenecks
Position sizing, risk management, and balancing growth with drawdown control
Sell discipline: valuation, fundamentals, and market signals
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and Tony Wang overview
01:05 Investing in inevitabilities and long-term thinking
03:00 Differentiating inevitability from hype and consensus
04:45 AI inevitability and the rise of agentic systems
07:00 Cost of intelligence and productivity implications
08:00 Real-world examples of AI adoption (customer service, agents)
09:00 Is AI underappreciated by markets?
11:15 AI as a “space race with multiple moons”
13:30 AI as the dominant driver of markets today
15:00 AI’s impact on jobs, productivity, and the economy
18:30 Creativity, judgment, and the future of work
20:45 Physical AI and robotics opportunity set
22:30 AI CapEx debate vs the dot-com era
25:30 Semiconductors vs software in the AI stack
28:15 AI disruption risk for software companies
31:00 Cyclicality in semiconductors and how AI changes it
33:30 The evolving role of the Mag 7 in AI
36:30 Competition, startups, and AI democratization
38:00 Where we are in the AI cycle today
40:00 Idea generation and S-curve adoption framework
42:30 Case study: memory and AI bottlenecks
44:45 Example position: optical networking and infrastructure
46:40 Portfolio construction and position sizing
49:00 Sell discipline and managing valuation riskMon, 06 Apr 2026 - 1h 02min - 486 - The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next
This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.
We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.
More on Katie's Strategies
https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/
Topics Covered:
Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase
The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases
Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk
How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets
The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle
Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse
Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes
Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction
The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors
Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025
What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets
How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal
08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities
12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle
16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice
20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership
24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios
27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics
32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals
36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation
39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy
44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next
47:00 Key signals to watch going forwardFri, 03 Apr 2026 - 48min - 485 - Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy
In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value.
The conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business models that are changing how we think about valuation, moats, and market structure.
Papers and Resources Discussed:
Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.htmlThe Impact of Intangibles on Base Rates
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_theimpactofintangiblesonbaserates.pdfMeasuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_measuringthemoat.pdfOne Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investments
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_onejob.pdfCapitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy
https://books.google.com/books/about/Capitalism_without_Capital.html?id=J3SYDwAAQBAJA Better Estimate of Internally Generated Intangible Capital
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01703Underestimating the Red Queen: Measuring Growth and Maintenance Investments
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_underestimatingtheredqueen.pdfExplaining the Recent Failure of Value Investing
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539Guest Links:
Michael Mauboussin Twitter
Topics Covered:
Why OpenAI’s projected growth would be unprecedented in market history
How base rates provide a reality check on AI expectations
The role of diffusion models and adoption curves in forecasting technology
Why massive capital investment in AI may follow past boom-bust cycles
Lessons from large-scale infrastructure projects and why timelines break
How intangible assets change the distribution of business outcomes
The rise of “fat tails” and why more companies now massively win or fail
Who captures value in AI across the stack from chips to applications
Why competition may drive AI profits toward consumers, not producers
How accounting distorts intangible investment and misleads investors
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and OpenAI growth expectations vs historical base rates
04:32 Why no company has ever achieved 100%+ sustained growth at scale
08:47 Lessons from megaprojects and AI infrastructure buildouts
13:18 Intangible assets and why outcomes now have fatter tails
18:36 Why big tech is growing faster than historical precedents
23:52 Where value accrues in AI and why consumers may benefit most
28:21 Barriers to entry in AI including capital, talent, and scale
32:47 The risk of overinvestment and historical parallels to past bubbles
37:26 Game theory and competitive signaling in AI capital spending
41:58 Why investment returns—not “asset light” narratives—drive value
46:12 How accounting fails to capture intangible investment properly
50:44 Breaking down SG&A into maintenance vs investment spending
55:03 Why understanding reinvestment and ROI is the core investing skill
59:18 Final thoughts on uncertainty, expectations, and base rates in AIThu, 02 Apr 2026 - 1h 01min - 484 - The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t
This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and what it means for investors. The discussion explores how a potential shift toward stagflation could challenge traditional stock and bond portfolios and why commodities, trend following, and systematic frameworks may be better suited for the current environment.
Prometheus Research
https://www.prometheus-research.comAahan Menon Twitter
https://x.com/@AahanPrometheusWhy the current inflation shock may be one of the most significant in recent history
How oil prices and geopolitical conflict are reshaping macro expectations
The growing risk of a stagflationary environment and what it means for portfolios
Why traditional 60/40 portfolios may struggle in sustained inflation regimes
How expected returns differ across equities, bonds, commodities, and FX
Why commodities and energy markets offer the most attractive opportunities today
The role of backwardation and supply shocks in driving commodity returns
Why consensus earnings expectations may be too optimistic relative to macro reality
How inflation flows through the economy from energy to consumer demand
The Fed’s dilemma between inflation control and economic slowdown
A simple rule for when to own treasuries based on inflation trends
Why correlations across asset classes are breaking down in crisis environments
How systematic investors manage risk when markets are driven by news and geopolitics
The case for trend following as a core portfolio strategy
How Aahan’s free trend system works across stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin
The behavioral advantages of systematic investing during volatile markets
Risks of trend following including whipsaws and false signals
How portfolio construction is evolving to include crisis protection and energy overlays
00:00 Inflation shock and why equities and bonds may struggle
01:03 Setting up the macro backdrop before the oil shock
03:12 Labor market slowdown vs strong GDP divergence
04:45 Consumer spending driven by de-saving
05:35 Oil-driven inflation shock as a recession catalyst
07:32 Preparing for stagflation vs disinflationary growth
09:18 Why commodities outperform in inflation regimes
10:45 Expected returns framework across asset classes
12:05 Why commodities and FX offer the best opportunities
14:05 How commodity carry and backwardation work
16:42 Trend following and commodities as pro-cyclical exposures
17:43 Ranking expected returns: energy, FX, bonds, equities
18:51 Challenges of systematic investing in news-driven markets
20:15 Extreme correlations and oil dominating asset pricing
23:47 Earnings expectations vs macro reality gap
28:30 Why the Fed faces an impossible policy tradeoff
30:00 Real-time CPI estimates and inflation pressure
32:00 A rule for when to own treasuries based on CPI
37:30 Stock-bond correlation regime shifts
39:34 How the trend following system works
45:10 Benefits and limitations of trend strategiesTue, 31 Mar 2026 - 58min - 483 - The Inflections Wall Street Misses | Harris Kupperman on Finding Overlooked Opportunities
This episode explores Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s framework for “inflection investing” and how he identifies asymmetric opportunities across global markets. The conversation dives into why he believes U.S. equities are structurally challenged, where he sees better opportunities globally, and how macro, politics, and capital flows drive major investing inflections.
Inflection investing and identifying asymmetric opportunities
How macro and politics create winners and losers in markets
The Argentina case study and why the stock exchange may outperform the country
How to structure trades with limited downside and multi-bagger upside
Time horizon advantages versus short-term Wall Street thinking
Portfolio construction, capital allocation, and when to sell positions
Managing risk, leverage, and liquidity during crises and wars
Building a “shopping list” during market dislocations
Country ETFs vs individual securities in global investing
Why Kuppy prefers international markets over the U.S.
The structural imbalances in the U.S. economy and stock market
Why AI may lead to profitless growth and economic disruption
The impact of AI on jobs, margins, and economic demand
How inflation distorts economic data and investor perception
Finding opportunities in “left for dead” markets like Brazil
The role of elections and policy shifts in market inflections
How to think probabilistically about investments
Avoiding unforced errors and emotional decision-making
The importance of long-term thinking in volatile markets
Psychology and discipline in global macro investingHarris Kupperman Twitter
https://twitter.com/HedgeyeKuppyPraetorian Capital Website
https://praetorian-capital.comTimestamps
00:00 Why the U.S. stock market is structurally overvalued
01:14 What “inflection investing” means
02:54 Top-down vs bottom-up investing framework
04:31 Using politics to identify winning trades
05:00 Argentina trade setup and execution
06:20 Why the Argentine stock exchange is the best play
08:00 Earnings inflection and multiple expansion potential
10:37 Time horizon and holding period strategy
13:00 When to exit positions and recycle capital
18:41 How and when to raise cash
19:41 De-grossing the portfolio during crises
23:14 Real-time decision making during war scenarios
27:00 Building a shopping list during dislocations
29:32 ETF vs individual stock decision process
33:22 Why the U.S. is less attractive than global markets
38:17 The problem with AI-driven “growth”
43:31 Monitoring vs acting across global opportunities
48:14 The psychology of long-term investing and edgeMon, 30 Mar 2026 - 1h 02min - 482 - The Moment Common Knowledge Changed | Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman
This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows. With an oil shock driven by geopolitical conflict, rising volatility, and conflicting economic signals, the discussion focuses on what actually matters beneath the surface and how investors should think about positioning in an environment where nothing is clearly priced in.
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Jack and Matt bring together Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze the ripple effects of higher oil prices, the “common knowledge” shift in markets, the role of options flows in driving short-term moves, and why traditional economic indicators like unemployment may be telling a misleading story.
Andy Constan Twitter
https://x.com/dampedspringBen Hunt Twitter
https://x.com/EpsilonTheoryBrent Kochuba Twitter
https://x.com/spotgammaEric Pachman Twitter
https://x.com/epachmanTopics covered:
How oil supply shocks impact GDP, inflation, and consumer spending
Why higher oil prices act as a tax on the economy and shift growth dynamics
The difference between supply shocks and demand shocks in energy markets
Why central banks may be unable to respond to an oil-driven slowdown
The “common knowledge” framework and how narratives reshape markets
Why the Strait of Hormuz has become the key global economic bottleneck
Oil exporters vs importers and how that divide is driving asset performance
Why energy equities may outperform in a prolonged geopolitical conflict
How volatility is being driven by oil prices and geopolitical risk
The relationship between VIX and oil during crisis periods
Why $100 oil could trigger a major volatility spike and equity selloff
The JP Morgan collar trade and how options positioning can pin markets
How dealer hedging flows influence short-term price action
Why markets may appear disconnected from negative news
The limits of predicting what is “priced in” during uncertain environments
Why diversification matters more when macro visibility is low
How unemployment data can mislead by excluding people leaving the workforce
The difference between unemployment rate and labor force participation
Structural decline in rural economies and the migration to urban centers
How labor force trends explain the divergence in economic experiences across the US
Timestamps:
00:00 Oil shock as a GDP tax on consumers
00:16 Strait of Hormuz as global economic chokepoint
00:29 Why $100 oil could send VIX to 50
00:39 Why unemployment rate may be misleading
01:07 What Last Call is and how the episode is structured
02:28 Macro, narrative, and flows framework for markets
03:44 How oil supply shocks impact growth and inflation
06:00 Why higher oil prices reduce discretionary spending
07:00 Oil’s impact on inflation and central bank policy
09:39 Scenario analysis for oil prices and market outcomes
12:28 Is the oil shock priced into markets?
16:00 Why oil vs assets may be mispriced
20:00 Ben Hunt on the “common knowledge” market shift
25:00 Why the Strait of Hormuz changes everything
29:00 Portfolio implications: long energy vs global equities
33:00 Brent Kochuba on oil, VIX, and market volatility linkage
36:00 Why $100 oil is the key risk threshold for equities
40:00 JP Morgan collar trade and market pinning dynamics
44:00 Why options flows can override macro narratives short term
52:00 Eric Pachman on unemployment vs labor force reality
59:00 Structural decline in labor force across US countiesSat, 28 Mar 2026 - 1h 09min - 481 - The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks through what private credit actually is, why it has grown so rapidly since 2008, and where he believes the biggest misconceptions and risks are for investors.
We dig into the structure of the market, how liquidity and credit risk really work beneath the surface, and why the media narrative around private credit may be overstating systemic risks. We also explore how investors should think about diversification, illiquidity premiums, and the potential impact of AI on credit markets and software lending.
Larry Swedroe Twitter
https://twitter.com/larryswedroeLarry Swedroe Substack
https://larryswedroe.substack.comTopics covered
What private credit is and how it evolved after the 2008 financial crisis
Why private credit is not a single asset class and how risk varies across structures
The three key risks in private credit: credit risk, liquidity risk, and concentration risk
How illiquidity premiums work and why they can be a major source of return
Differences between private credit funds, BDCs, and open architecture platforms
Why diversification is critical and how concentration risk can be hidden
How rising interest rates are impacting defaults and underwriting standards
Media misconceptions around defaults, losses, and valuation marks in private credit
The real systemic risk of private credit vs the banking system
How liquidity actually works in interval funds and stress scenarios
What happens in a recession and how private credit compares to equities and high yield bonds
The role of software lending and how AI disruption could impact credit portfolios
How to evaluate private credit managers including scale, underwriting, and leverage
The importance of credit culture and avoiding “reach for yield” behavior
Whether private credit should be accessible to retail investors and the risks involved
The concept of earning “beta” in private credit vs trying to pick winning managers
AI’s growing role in investment research and the risks of overfitting and false signals
Timestamps
00:00 Why private credit is less risky than banks for systemic stability
01:12 Introduction and episode overview
03:00 What private credit is and how it grew after 2008
05:21 Who provides capital to private credit funds
07:11 Why private credit is not a monolithic asset class
08:00 The three key risks in private credit
09:00 Illiquidity premium and why it can be a “near free lunch”
12:00 Credit risk and importance of senior secured lending
16:00 Concentration risk and why diversification matters
18:11 Are defaults rising and what the data actually shows
21:00 Media narratives vs actual credit losses
23:50 Could private credit cause a financial crisis
25:50 How to analyze portfolios and why most investors can’t
28:44 Should investors think about indexing private credit
30:12 Can private credit work for retail investors
32:26 Mass redemption risk and liquidity stress scenarios
36:00 Sources of liquidity inside private credit funds
41:37 Software lending and AI disruption risk
47:00 Private equity valuations and spillover into credit risk
49:43 Key checklist for evaluating private credit investments
56:30 How AI is changing financial research and investingThu, 26 Mar 2026 - 1h 00min - 480 - Nothing Is Priced In | Bob Elliott on Why Investors Are Misreading the Oil Shock
This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an income-driven to a savings-driven system.
The conversation explores why markets may be mispricing the economic impact of higher oil prices, how inflation and growth dynamics could unfold, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile macro environment.
Bob also breaks down how to think about global macro investing today, including why traditional portfolios may be poorly positioned for a wider range of outcomes, how macro managers are adapting to shifting conditions, and how AI-driven productivity gains could impact economic growth, labor, and markets.
Bob Elliott on Twitter
https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedUnlimited Funds website
https://www.unlimitedfunds.comTopics covered
The shift from an income-driven economy to a savings-driven economy and why it creates fragility
Why an oil shock acts as both an inflation driver and a tax on real consumer spending
How higher gas prices mechanically reduce discretionary spending and economic growth
Why markets may be underpricing the economic impact of the current oil shock
The link between oil prices, inflation expectations, and real demand destruction
How global markets respond to shocks through deleveraging and volatility spikes
Why gold and other winning trades can fall during risk-off environments
The sequencing of inflation first and growth slowdown later in shock-driven cycles
How central banks are likely to respond to a stagflationary shock
Lessons from 2022 and 2008 for understanding today’s macro environment
Why stocks and bonds may both be mispriced in the current regime
The difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AI
Why AI-driven job losses and economic growth cannot coexist without major dissaving
The most likely path for AI as a productivity enhancer rather than a job destroyer
How to think about measuring productivity in a technology-driven economy
The role of second- and third-order effects in macro investing
How global macro strategies identify mispricings across asset classes
The concept of using the “wisdom of the crowd” from hedge fund positioning
Why macro strategies can perform in both rising and falling markets
How macro fits into a portfolio as a diversifier versus long-only assets
Why the future investment environment may require broader strategy diversification
Timestamps
00:00 Oil shock meets a savings-driven economy
01:00 Framing the macro environment: oil, inflation, and growth
02:12 What a savings-driven economy means for market fragility
04:46 Why household income vs spending divergence matters
07:00 First principles of an oil shock and demand inelasticity
08:00 How oil price spikes flow through to inflation
13:00 Global market reactions and emerging market dynamics
14:00 Deleveraging and volatility driving asset price reversals
15:44 Why gold declines during macro stress events
17:17 Institutional positioning and ETF flows in gold
17:34 Inflation first, growth slowdown later: sequencing the impact
19:24 Is the economic damage already done
22:00 How macro investors operate in low-conviction environments
29:19 What the Fed should do versus what it will do
31:00 Comparing today’s environment to 2022 inflation dynamics
33:00 Why markets are pricing in almost nothing
34:00 AI and the link between labor, income, and spending
37:11 Productivity vs consumer surplus in AI adoption
40:00 Why better tools don’t necessarily mean higher productivity
s
46:00 How global macro strategies are constructed
48:00 Using hedge fund positioning as a signal
56:00 Why the opportunity set for macro may be expandingWed, 25 Mar 2026 - 58min - 479 - The 0.1% Winners | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Why Outliers Drive Returns
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In this episode of our new show, 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. Applying the work of Michael Mauboussin, the conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction.
This episode brings together Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer to explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. The conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction.
Topics covered
• Why markets are driven by extreme outcomes and power laws, not averages
• The Best & Bessembinder research showing a handful of stocks create most wealth
• Base rates vs outliers and when to trust historical probabilities
• Why the 100 bagger framework focuses on studying winners, not predicting them
• Portfolio construction as a way to capture asymmetric upside
• Buffett’s approach to consistency, durability, and long-term operating history
• Inside view vs outside view and how narratives distort investing decisions
• Why AI may be breaking traditional base rate assumptions in software and tech
• The limits of mean reversion and why it can lead investors astray
• Return on invested capital and how competition erodes excess returns over time
• Identifying durable moats and why most advantages eventually get attacked
• Winner-take-all dynamics and how they shape long-term investing outcomes
• The twin engines of returns: earnings growth and multiple expansion
• Return on incremental capital as a key driver of long-term compounding
• Intangible assets and why accounting understates true business value
• Amazon as a case study in misunderstood profitability and reinvestment
• AI CapEx cycle and why current spending may not be sustainable long term
• Why great businesses matter more than great management in long-term investingTimestamps
00:00 Why extreme outcomes drive stock market returns
01:00 Base rates vs studying 100 baggers
03:00 Power laws and why markets are a game of outliers
05:00 Just 46 companies created half of all market wealth
07:00 Buffett on consistency and long-term operating history
10:00 How to think about base rates in AI, energy, and macro cycles
12:00 Does AI invalidate historical base rates?
15:00 Inside view vs outside view in investment decision making
19:00 Buffett’s “certainty at a discount” framework
23:00 How often investors should evaluate businesses vs prices
29:00 Mean reversion myths and where it breaks down
33:00 Return on invested capital and competitive pressure
36:00 Moats, winner-take-all markets, and long-term dominance
41:00 Twin engines of compounding: growth plus multiple expansion
43:00 Return on incremental capital and forecasting future returns
47:00 Intangibles and why accounting distorts real business value
50:00 Amazon, CapEx cycles, and hidden profitability
53:00 AI infrastructure buildout and the future of returnsMon, 23 Mar 2026 - 1h 12min - 478 - Big Decline. Options Support Gone | Brent Kochuba on the Fragile Market Setup
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This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead.
Brent Kochuba on Twitter
https://twitter.com/SpotGammaSpotGamma Website
https://spotgamma.comTopics covered in this episode
• Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm
• The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals
• How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility
• Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk
• The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves
• How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand
• Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation
• The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio
• How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility
• The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges
• The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end
• Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement
• The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve
• How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisionsTimestamps
00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect
01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks
05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations
07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements
08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time
09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points
10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression
13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility
14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing
16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 40
17:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging
18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices
20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event
22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration
23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels
25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs
28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup
30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset
32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities
34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative
36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions
39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets
41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts
44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure
48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities
49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread
50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low
52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loopsSat, 21 Mar 2026 - 1h 10min - 477 - The War Markets Can't Price | Jared Dillian on the Regime Change Investors Miss
In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation shocks—and what that means for investors today. The conversation explores how changing correlations, Fed policy constraints, commodities, and portfolio construction are reshaping the investing playbook in 2026.
Jared Dillian Twitter
https://twitter.com/DailyDirtNapDaily Dirt Nap
https://www.dailydirtnap.comTopics Covered
Why markets fail to price low-frequency, high-impact events like war and geopolitical shocks
The concept of regime change and why investors struggle to adapt to new market environments
The breakdown of the 60/40 portfolio and stock-bond correlation in an inflationary regime
Commodities bull market dynamics and why energy, agriculture, and hard assets may outperform
The role of options and “long gamma” positioning in uncertain macro environments
Bitcoin as a liquidity trade vs. store of value and how sentiment drives crypto cycles
Fed policy, oil prices, and why central banks follow the “path of least embarrassment”
Inflation psychology, consumer behavior, and risks of 1970s-style market conditions
Political bias in investing and how ideology shapes portfolio decisions
Risks in private equity and private credit, including valuation marks and liquidity issues
The Awesome Portfolio framework and why diversification across asset classes reduces drawdowns
AI, productivity shifts, and how technological change impacts markets and labor trends
Timestamps
00:00 Why markets misprice geopolitical risk and regime change
02:00 Ukraine, Iran, and delayed market reactions to obvious risks
05:00 Overreaction cycles and the Peloton example
06:00 What it means to be long gamma in investing
09:00 Oil volatility and asymmetric risk opportunities
10:00 Regime change explained through stock-bond correlation breakdown
12:00 Non-stationarity and why investing rules constantly change
14:00 Why most investors fail to adapt to new regimes
17:00 Position sizing, risk management, and staying “small”
19:00 Commodities bull market and broad participation across assets
20:30 Bitcoin as a liquidity sponge and sentiment-driven asset
22:00 Fed policy, inflation, and the path of least embarrassment
25:00 Oil-driven inflation vs demand destruction dynamics
27:00 Inflation psychology and real-time indicators
29:00 Are we entering a 1970s-style macro regime
31:00 How political views shape investment strategies
35:00 Learning from past mistakes and adapting to new trends
37:00 Private equity and private credit valuation risks
40:00 Liquidity cycles and refinancing risk in credit markets
43:00 The Awesome Portfolio explained
46:00 Behavior, drawdowns, and why diversification works
49:00 Real estate allocation and portfolio construction
51:00 Labor trends, productivity, and changing work dynamics
54:00 AI productivity boom vs social media drag
57:00 The dangers of consensus thinking and unpopular viewsThu, 19 Mar 2026 - 1h 03min - 476 - They Call It a Lottery Ticket. The Data Says Otherwise | D.A. Wallach on The Hidden Alpha of Biotech
Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this market. We also explore the cycles that have driven biotech performance, the impact of interest rates and capital flows, and how AI and global competition may reshape the industry in the years ahead.
D.A. Wallach – Twitter
https://x.com/DAWallachTopics covered include
• Why biotech may be one of the last areas where specialist investors can generate persistent alpha
• The “bag of options” framework for valuing development-stage biotech companies
• How probabilities of drug success and clinical base rates drive biotech valuations
• Why rising interest rates hit biotech stocks harder than many other sectors
• How capital flows and investor narratives create boom-and-bust cycles in biotech
• What happened to biotech during the pandemic surge and the post-COVID downturn
• Why AI and tech narratives compete with biotech for investor attention
• The role of specialist biotech hedge funds in the public markets
• How large pharmaceutical companies drive returns through biotech acquisitions
• Differences between biotech venture capital and traditional tech venture investing
• How venture investors evaluate drug development programs and scientific evidence
• Portfolio construction and diversification when investing in highly uncertain biotech companies
• The emerging role of China in clinical trials and global drug development
• Whether AI can improve drug discovery, clinical trials, and pharmaceutical R&D productivity
• Why investors should avoid rigid value vs growth ideologies and stay adaptableTimestamps
00:00 Why biotech investing requires specialized knowledge
01:40 Is biotech one of the last places for persistent active alpha?
02:45 The “bag of options” model for valuing biotech companies
05:00 Drug development phases and probabilities of success
07:00 Using base rates to estimate clinical trial success
09:20 Estimating total addressable markets for new drugs
11:10 Why rising interest rates hurt biotech valuations
13:00 Capital flows and why biotech underperformed in recent years
15:30 The biotech boom and bust around the COVID pandemic
18:00 How AI and tech compete with biotech for investor capital
22:20 The role of specialist biotech hedge funds
24:00 How pharmaceutical acquisitions drive biotech returns
25:20 How biotech venture capital differs from tech VC
30:50 Why biotech investors must evaluate complex scientific data
34:20 Where AI may improve drug discovery and R&D productivity
42:00 Portfolio construction and diversification in biotech venture investing
44:30 Volatility, valuation marks, and private market pricing
48:00 Managing risk across different drug technologies and disease areas
49:30 Why China is becoming important for clinical trials
53:00 Why biotech investing must be viewed as a global industry
54:30 The importance of flexibility between value and growth investing
58:50 Will investing become more systematic and quantitative over timeMon, 16 Mar 2026 - 1h 05min - 475 - 14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026
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In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.
Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world
• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes
• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption
• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change
• Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy
• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth
• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right
• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind
• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines
• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy
• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns
• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets
• Jim Paulsen’s concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets
• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps
00:00 Introduction
02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing
08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses
18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy
25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor
31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle
37:44 AI’s deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies
44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks
50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events
56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull marketSun, 15 Mar 2026 - 1h 05min - 474 - The $1 Trillion Supercycle Hidden in Plain Sight | Joseph Shaposhnik
On this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Rainwater Equity ETF portfolio manager Joseph Shaposhnik about how long-term investors should think about markets in an era defined by geopolitical shocks, AI disruption, and unprecedented capital investment cycles. The conversation explores how disciplined investors can stay focused on durable businesses and long-term free cash flow rather than reacting to short-term headlines. Joseph explains how his team evaluates companies during major events, why the AI boom may create both massive disruption and opportunity, and where he believes the most attractive investment opportunities exist today.
Topics covered in this episode
• Why most macro headlines and geopolitical events rarely have lasting impacts on great businesses
• How long-term investors should analyze conflicts and market shocks without overreacting
• The defense spending supercycle and why aerospace and defense may benefit from rising geopolitical tensions
• How Joseph evaluates the AI investment cycle across semiconductors, software, and hyperscalers
• Why semiconductor companies may offer a lower-risk way to benefit from AI growth
• The risks created by massive AI infrastructure CapEx and concentration around specific AI models
• Why some software companies may face significant disruption from AI tools and LLMs
• How AI could reshape business models that rely on packaging public or commoditized data
• The potential rotation from the Magnificent Seven to the other 493 companies in the S&P 500
• Why capital intensity may change the long-term attractiveness of some technology companies
• The role of management quality and capital allocation in navigating technological disruption
• Fragile vs anti-fragile business models in an AI-driven economy
• Where AI may create unexpected winners across industrial and traditional industries
• Why long-term investors should still prioritize durable cash flow compounding businessesTimestamps
00:00 Introduction and why most headlines have limited long-term impact on businesses
02:00 How experienced investors think about geopolitical shocks and market headlines
04:00 Defense spending tailwinds and the aerospace and defense supercycle
06:45 How investors should react when major market news breaks
11:10 How Joseph evaluates the AI boom and which companies benefit most
14:15 The case for opportunities outside the Magnificent Seven
17:15 How rising AI CapEx is changing the economics of major tech companies
21:25 Why hyperscalers face increasing concentration risk
23:00 Why semiconductor suppliers may be the best positioned AI investments
27:15 Why Joseph reduced exposure to software companies
33:00 The importance of learning organizations and adaptive management teams
37:00 AI, labor markets, and whether high-income jobs face disruption
41:00 Fragile vs anti-fragile companies in the age of AI
46:00 Where AI could create unexpected business winners
52:00 How great management teams adapt during technological disruption
57:00 How AI may accelerate entrepreneurship and innovation
59:00 Why investors should remain focused on sustainable cash flow
01:02:00 What the next generation of long-term compounders may look likeFri, 13 Mar 2026 - 1h 05min - 473 - Survival First. Returns Second | Vitaliy Katsenelson on Investing Amid Extreme Uncertainty
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates and author of Soul in the Game. The conversation explores how value investing is evolving in a world shaped by artificial intelligence, rapidly changing economic dynamics, and historically high market valuations. Vitaliy discusses why humility and diversification are increasingly important for investors today, how to balance quality and valuation when selecting stocks, and what he has learned about selling decisions, portfolio construction, and long-term investing discipline. The discussion also moves beyond markets into deeper ideas about passion, creativity, and why investing, like art, is ultimately a creative pursuit driven by curiosity and lifelong learning.
Topics covered in this episode
Why high stock market valuations may create a headwind for future returns
The math behind long-term stock market returns and the role of earnings growth versus valuation changes
Whether the dominance of mega-cap technology companies represents a structural shift in markets
Why AI investment could lead to both massive innovation and large amounts of wasted capital
The importance of humility in investing during periods of rapid technological and economic change
Why Vitaliy increased the number of stocks in his portfolio due to greater uncertainty
How investors can think about what will not change in a rapidly evolving world
The evolution from statistical value investing to focusing on business quality and management
Why cheap stocks are often expensive and how narrative bias can trap value investors
The importance of evaluating management integrity and avoiding companies with questionable leadership
How Vitaliy thinks about selling decisions and recognizing when an investment thesis is broken
Why many investors make their biggest mistakes by selling winners too early
The concept of being a value buyer but a growth holder when fundamentals improve
Why updating valuation models as businesses improve is critical to capturing long-term upside
Lessons learned from great investors and the importance of surrounding yourself with thoughtful peers
The idea of building a personal operating system for investing and life
Passion, patience, and process as the three pillars of long-term investment success
Why investing is fundamentally a creative pursuit similar to art and music
The deeper motivations behind investing and why for many great investors it is not ultimately about money
Timestamps
0:00 Vitaliy on humility and why the range of outcomes in investing is expanding
2:00 The math behind long-term stock market returns
4:00 Why high valuations can become a headwind for future returns
6:00 Big tech growth and whether large companies now have structural advantages
8:00 AI investment and the risk of massive capital misallocation
10:30 Learning AI and why investors must adapt to rapid technological change
14:00 Why humility leads to diversification and larger portfolios
20:00 The evolution from cheap stocks to quality investing
25:30 Selling discipline and recognizing when a thesis is broken
34:30 Letting winners run and avoiding the mistake of selling too early
42:00 Learning from other great investors and building your own framework
44:30 Passion, patience, and process in investing
52:00 Why great investors are motivated by more than money
1:01:40 The connection between investing, creativity, and classical musicTue, 10 Mar 2026 - 1h 12min - 472 - What War Charts and AI Bubbles Miss | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026
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In this new weekly Excess Returns recap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others, the episode connects ideas across macro, markets, AI, credit cycles and valuation. The conversation focuses on timeless investing principles investors can apply today, including how to evaluate expert opinions, how AI may reshape markets and jobs, what defines a true market bubble, why international stocks may be benefiting from global fiscal spending, and why the best opportunities in markets often come after long periods of underperformance.
Topics covered in this episode
How to evaluate expert opinions during major market events and filter signal from noise
Andy Constan’s framework for judging credibility based on experience and confidence
Why charts showing markets rising after wars are often misleading data mining
The difference between believing in AI technology and believing AI stocks are good investments
How AI could both replace and augment human work through the task based structure of jobs
Rob Arnott’s definition of a market bubble using implausible growth assumptions
Why many technology leaders ultimately fail to justify the expectations priced into their stocks
The difference between software companies whose moat is code and those with durable intangible advantages
How brand, switching costs, distribution and network effects protect enterprise software companies
Why AI may be one of the most disruptive technologies in history and what that means for markets
Meb Faber on the myth that the easy money has already been made in international and value stocks
The behavioral challenge of holding unpopular strategies through long periods of underperformance
Rob Arnott on why small cap value could outperform large cap growth over the next decade
Ben Hunt on the point in every credit cycle when lenders say no more
How rising costs of capital can trigger boom bust credit cycles
Rupert Mitchell on why global equity markets often follow government fiscal spending
The growing role of international fiscal policy and capital flows in global market leadership
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the weekly Excess Returns recap show
03:00 Andy Constan on how to evaluate experts and filter market commentary
11:40 Why charts showing markets rising after wars can be misleading
17:00 Kai Wu on AI technology versus AI investments and the future of work
25:37 Rob Arnott on how to define a market bubble using valuation assumptions
29:35 Kai Wu on software moats, intangible assets and enterprise software durability
35:31 Rob Arnott on how disruptive AI could be for the global economy
39:54 Meb Faber on why the easy money has never been made in markets
43:57 Rob Arnott on small cap value versus large cap growth opportunities
48:39 Ben Hunt on credit cycles and the moment lenders pull back
55:56 Rupert Mitchell on fiscal spending and global equity market performanceMon, 09 Mar 2026 - 1h 01min - 471 - 1% Growth. Zero Jobs | Jim Paulsen on the Recession Hiding in Plain Sight
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In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today’s markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI’s long-term economic impact.
Topics covered in this episode
How geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentiment
Why market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investors
The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial markets
Why Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatility
Why energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cycles
The argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economy
How AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demand
Why technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating work
The concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growth
Paulsen’s analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growing
Why the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positive
How the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader market
The historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity markets
Why policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocks
Whether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recession
Why policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocks
Timestamps
0:00 Jim Paulsen on geopolitical volatility, oil prices, and market reactions
2:50 How investors should think about the Iran conflict and market implications
10:50 The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and safe-haven flows
12:20 Why Paulsen likes international and emerging market stocks
14:30 Why higher oil prices may not lead to sustained inflation
18:40 AI disruption and the economic debate around jobs and productivity
23:00 How innovation historically creates new demand and economic growth
29:40 Technology is the tail wagging the economic dog
33:30 Why the “new economy” is growing far faster than the rest of the economy
37:00 Evidence that most of the economy may already resemble a recession
41:00 Profit growth disparity between technology and the rest of the economy
45:40 Why the stock market can mask weakness in the broader economy
46:30 The historical leadership toggle between tech and the broader market
49:00 Valuation differences between technology and other sectors
50:30 How policy conditions influence market leadership
55:00 Signs that leadership may already be shifting beyond tech
57:00 Could the Fed ease without a traditional recession
59:00 What a policy shift could mean for the next phase of the bull marketSat, 07 Mar 2026 - 1h 01min - 470 - The Widest Valuation Gap in History | Rob Arnott on What Investors Are Missing About AI
Rob Arnott returns to Excess Returns to discuss the biggest questions facing investors today, including the impact of geopolitical conflict, the valuation gap between U.S. and international markets, the long-term investment implications of artificial intelligence, and why extreme spreads between growth and value may present major opportunities. Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing, explains why AI itself is not necessarily a bubble but many AI stocks may be priced for implausible growth. He also discusses why small cap and value stocks may offer some of the most compelling long-term opportunities in decades, how market narratives drive valuations, and why diversification beyond the U.S. could be critical for investors. Throughout the conversation, Arnott draws on decades of market history to explain how bubbles form, why profit margins tend to mean revert, and how investors should think about positioning portfolios for the next market cycle.
Topics covered in this episode:
• Why Rob Arnott believes AI is real but many AI stocks may be in a bubble
• How market narratives can push valuations far beyond fundamentals
• Why U.S. stocks trade at roughly twice the valuation multiples of international markets
• The widening valuation gap between growth and value stocks
• Why small cap stocks may be one of the most attractive opportunities today
• The massive capital spending required to build the AI ecosystem
• How technological revolutions historically destroy jobs but create new opportunities
• Why investors should learn to use AI tools to remain competitive
• The definition of a market bubble based on implausible growth expectations
• Lessons from the dot-com bubble and the history of dominant technology companies
• Why profit margins tend to mean revert over time
• The long-term outlook for international stocks and diversification
• How fundamental indexing works and why it can create rebalancing alpha
• The concept of the “Trifecta” approach combining value, core indexing, and growth
• The risks of conglomerate premiums and the diversification discount
• Why the largest companies in the market rarely remain dominant over long periods
• How investors should think about balancing growth exposure with cheaper opportunitiesTimestamps:
00:00 AI vs AI Stocks: Why Arnott Sees a Bubble
00:01 Introduction to Rob Arnott and Research Affiliates
02:13 The Iran Conflict and How War Impacts Markets
06:41 U.S. Valuations vs International Opportunities
08:50 The Extreme Spread Between Growth and Value
10:00 The Small Cap Opportunity and Index Effects
13:08 The Citrini AI Paper and Long-Term Technology Shifts
14:09 How Technological Revolutions Destroy and Create Jobs
16:00 How AI Is Already Changing Investment Research
20:00 Why AI Tools Are Still Losing Money
23:40 How Investors Should Think About AI Exposure
25:21 Arnott’s Definition of a Market Bubble
27:41 Lessons from the Dot-Com Bubble
28:34 Profit Margins and Mean Reversion
30:34 Technology Moats and Competitive Disruption
32:12 Will Mean Reversion Still Work in Markets?
36:02 The Case for International Stocks
41:39 The Trifecta: A New Framework for Indexing
51:15 Why Expensive Slow-Growth Companies Underperform
56:25 Conglomerate Premiums and Mega Cap Tech
57:00 The Long-Term Case for Value and Small Caps
01:00:00 Why Market Leaders Rarely Stay on TopThu, 05 Mar 2026 - 1h 03min - 469 - 100% Out of US Stocks | Andy Constan on AI, War Risk and the Shift Abroad
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and productivity, capital flows, credit markets, fiscal policy, and the shift from US to international equities. Andy walks through the framework he uses to evaluate uncertainty, from wars and geopolitical shocks to the long-term implications of artificial intelligence, and explains why capital markets and funding conditions may matter more than bold narratives. We also explore growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the structural case for global diversification in today’s macro environment.
Main topics covered
A practical framework for analyzing geopolitical shocks, including red flags, green flags, and how to evaluate information quality during times of uncertainty
How markets are pricing the current conflict with Iran across oil, equities, bonds, gold, and volatility
Why historical market performance after wars may offer limited predictive value due to small sample sizes
How to think about AI from a macro perspective, including GDP growth versus GDP share and who ultimately captures the gains
The capital markets implications of massive AI-related capex and whether equity and credit markets can fund current spending plans
Growth, inflation, and the Fed: how fiscal stimulus, wealth effects, QT, and labor market trends are shaping the current macro backdrop
Why Andy has shifted away from US assets toward international markets, including the role of bond yields and global risk parity
A critical look at the Trump accounts proposal and the broader issue of fiscal deficits and capital allocation
The key risks Andy is watching over the next three to six months, especially around credit markets and funding conditions
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and overview of discussion topics
01:01 Framework for evaluating geopolitical shocks and information quality
11:46 Market reaction to the Iran conflict and asset pricing implications
23:00 Why historical war data may not be reliable for market forecasting
27:03 How to analyze AI’s impact on productivity and economic growth
37:00 AI capex, credit markets, and funding risks
42:24 Growth, inflation, and Fed policy in the current cycle
49:20 The case for international equities over US markets
56:20 Trump accounts, fiscal policy, and capital allocation
01:02:23 What Andy is watching most closely in the months aheadTue, 03 Mar 2026 - 1h 04min - 468 - Is AI Replacing Workers Faster Than We Think? | We Break Down the Viral AI Doom Loop Article
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down the viral “AI doom loop” article that sparked debate across Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and even the Federal Reserve. They walk through the core thesis that artificial intelligence could trigger a non-cyclical economic disruption, separating signal from noise and exploring what it could mean for software stocks, labor markets, productivity, wealth inequality, and long-term investing. Rather than reacting emotionally, they analyze the mechanics step by step, asking whether AI is more likely to replace workers or amplify them, how fast adoption can realistically happen, and what investors should be watching right now.
Main topics covered:
The core thesis behind the AI doom loop scenario and why it went viral
Is AI a substitute for human labor or a productivity multiplier
People times productivity as a framework for understanding economic growth
Why we are not yet seeing major AI disruption in labor or productivity data
Software stocks, margin compression, and the risk to SaaS business models
The Jevons Paradox and whether lower costs could expand demand instead of destroy it
Why incumbents with strong intangible moats may survive AI disruption
The difference between technological capability and real world adoption speed
Compute, energy, and token costs as natural limits on AI expansion
The feedback loop argument and whether AI could cause a demand shock
Creative destruction and the difficulty of forecasting new job creation
AI, high income knowledge workers, and the risk to consumer spending
Wealth inequality, capital versus labor, and policy responses like UBI
Why investors can be bullish on AI technology but cautious on markets
How to think about short term disruption versus long term abundance
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the AI doom loop thesis
02:15 Why the article triggered a market reaction
06:00 People times productivity and economic growth
09:00 AI and disruption in software stocks
15:00 Jevons Paradox and expanding total demand
19:00 AI agents, frictionless commerce, and price competition
26:00 Adoption speed versus technology speed
28:00 Compute constraints and natural governors on AI growth
31:00 The non cyclical disruption feedback loop
33:00 Creative destruction and new job formation
38:00 General purpose technology and broad economic exposure
44:00 Replacement versus augmentation of workers
48:00 Token costs, enterprise AI spending, and labor tradeoffs
51:00 High income job risk and inequality concernsSun, 01 Mar 2026 - 1h 00min - 466 - Most Portfolios Are Built Backwards | Cullen Roche on Building Your Perfect Portfolio
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Cullen Roche to discuss his new book Your Perfect Portfolio and the deeper principles behind building a portfolio that actually fits your life. Rather than starting with asset allocation models or return forecasts, Cullen reframes investing around risk, time horizons, and lifetime consumption. We explore how to think about stocks, bonds, factor investing, international diversification, private assets, inflation hedges, and more through the lens of financial planning and asset liability matching. This is a practical, wide ranging conversation about portfolio construction, behavioral risk, and how investors can align their investments with real world goals.
Main topics covered:
Why you are a saver, not an investor, and why that distinction matters
Defining risk as uncertainty of lifetime consumption
The temporal conundrum and matching investments to time horizons
Human capital as your most important asset and how it impacts portfolio risk
The pros and cons of a 100 percent stock allocation
Rethinking the 60 40 portfolio after inflation and rising rates
International diversification and valuation differences between US and global markets
Factor investing as a time horizon tool rather than an alpha strategy
The forward cap portfolio and skating to where the market cap puck is going
Inflation protection strategies including stocks, TIPS, gold, and the permanent portfolio
Risk parity and the tradeoff between diversification and return
Countercyclical rebalancing and managing behavioral risk
Private equity, venture capital, and the illiquidity premium
Defined duration investing and asset liability matching for individual investors
The real impact of inflation, taxes, and fees on long term returns
Timestamps:
00:00 Risk as lifetime consumption and asset liability matching
01:03 Introduction to Your Perfect Portfolio
05:25 You are a saver, not an investor
08:24 Defining risk and uncertainty of lifetime consumption
10:15 The temporal conundrum and time horizons
12:38 Using past performance and forecasting responsibly
15:00 Human capital and portfolio construction
17:12 The case for a 100 percent stock allocation
19:50 Rethinking the 60 40 portfolio
24:00 Adding international diversification
29:43 Factor investing across time horizons
35:00 The forward cap portfolio concept
38:27 Inflation hedges and the permanent portfolio
42:27 Risk parity explained
44:49 Countercyclical rebalancing
47:17 Private assets and illiquidity
51:25 Defined duration strategy and Discipline Funds ETFs
56:00 Real returns after inflation, taxes, and feesIf you are interested in portfolio construction, asset allocation, financial planning, factor investing, inflation protection, or building a long term investment strategy that matches your goals, this conversation offers a thoughtful framework for thinking differently about risk and returns.
Fri, 27 Feb 2026 - 59min - 465 - The Edge Has Shifted | Matt Reustle on How the Best Investors Use AI
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Russell of Business Breakdowns to explore how AI is actually being used in investing today. We go beyond the hype and break down practical use cases for AI in portfolio management, stock research, due diligence, monitoring, and idea generation. From deep research models and agentic AI to prompt engineering and workflow design, this conversation walks through how professional investors can use AI tools to increase productivity, improve decision-making, and reduce blind spots without losing their edge. If you are an asset manager, analyst, allocator, or DIY investor wondering how AI will impact investing and stock picking, this episode offers a clear, practical roadmap.
Main topics covered:
The evolution from early large language models to deep research and agentic AI for investors
LLMs vs agent-based AI and why the distinction matters for investment research
How AI fits into an investor’s workflow, from due diligence to portfolio monitoring
Using AI to monitor KPIs, earnings calls, and cross-industry signals in real time
How AI can help kill bad ideas faster and surface deal breakers early
Prompt engineering for investors, including mindset framing, audience targeting, and output design
Building mental models into AI systems to reflect your investment philosophy
AI tech stacks for investors, including writing tools, deep research models, and browser-based AI
Iteration, experimentation, and standardized testing of prompts across model upgrades
The impact of AI on alpha generation, active management, and generalist vs specialist investors
Organizational adoption strategies for investment firms considering AI
Customization, agentic workflows, and what AI in investing could look like five years from now
Timestamps:
00:00 How AI tools increase investor productivity
01:16 Why early ChatGPT was a head fake for investors
03:07 The inflection point with deep research and agentic AI
05:00 LLMs vs agents explained in plain English
07:01 Where AI fits inside an investment workflow
09:28 Replacing manual earnings transcript work
11:40 Real-time monitoring and AI alerts
19:24 Using AI to kill bad investment ideas faster
22:01 Trust but verify, hallucinations and safeguards
25:29 Matt’s AI tech stack for investing
30:00 Prompt engineering breakthroughs
33:00 Standardized experimentation across new AI models
36:07 Building idea generation prompts step by step
40:15 Using AI as an editor and critical reviewer
43:50 Does AI compress investor skill differences
46:10 How funds should adopt AI internally
50:40 Fear of falling behind in asset management
53:05 Generalists vs specialists in an AI world
55:18 AI and the pursuit of alpha
57:00 Customization, agents and the future of investing
01:01:10 Coding agents and building tools with AIWed, 25 Feb 2026 - 1h 03min - 464 - When You've Won the Game, Stop Playing | What Great Investors Taught Us About Portfolio and Purpose
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In this episode, we explore one of the most important but overlooked questions in investing: what is the purpose of your portfolio? Through a series of powerful clips and reflections from Aswath Damodaran, Meb Faber, Ben Hunt, Cullen Roche, Corey Hoffstein, Daniel Crosby, Larry Swedroe, and Wes Gray, we examine how goals like financial freedom, funded contentment, liability driven investing, retirement planning, and multi generational wealth shape the way we invest. This conversation goes beyond beating the market and focuses on preserving and growing wealth, reducing financial stress, aligning money with meaning, and defining what a life well lived truly looks like.
Topics covered include:
Why the end game of investing matters more than beating the market
Preserving and growing wealth vs trying to get rich
Freedom as the ultimate goal of financial independence
Funded contentment and what it means to live a life well lived
Liability driven investing and matching assets to future needs
The difference between getting rich and staying rich
Needs vs desires and understanding marginal utility of wealth
Retirement planning and redefining success beyond a number
Multi generational wealth and thinking beyond your own lifetime
The psychological impact of growing up with or without money
Financial freedom, stress reduction, and peace of mind
Tactical financial goals vs long term purpose driven investing
Education, legacy, and investing in the next generation
Why once you win the game you may not need to keep playing
Timestamps:
00:00 Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth
10:04 Meb Faber on freedom, contentment, and the hedonic treadmill
22:36 Ben Hunt on funded contentment and finding your pack
28:23 Cullen Roche on risk as uncertainty of consumption
33:25 Corey Hoffstein on liability driven investing and not worrying about money
41:50 Daniel Crosby on financial freedom and living life on your own terms
47:33 Larry Swedroe on needs vs desires and staying rich
55:54 Wes Gray on big blue arrows, tactical goals, and peace of mindMon, 23 Feb 2026 - 1h 08min
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