Al Ahly Pharos

Market Overview 



Prepared by Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

CAPMAS is expected to publish inflation readings for April on Thursday, 9 May. We expect annual urban inflation to record c.32%, lower than 33.34% in March, mainly on a relative calm in some food items.

Net foreign reserves increased by USD696 million from the month before to USD41.1 billion at the end of April, reaching their highest level in more than four years.

The EGX’s long-awaited sharia-compliant index is to launch before the end of June. 

Egypt's headline PMI registered in April 47.4. This was down from March's 47.6 and the second-lowest reading in the past year. 

Suez Canal revenues registered USD330.3 million in April 2024, lower by USD575.1 million YoY.

Egypt intends to pay USD845.3 million to the IMF during current May, divided into six tranches.

The Egyptian Stock Exchange is preparing to receive three new offerings on the main market during the current year, out of six expected to be implemented. 

The Minister of Justice, revealed a decision from the Real Estate Registry Authority stipulating that when registering the ownership of any contract for foreigners, proof of the transfer of the value of the housing unit from abroad to the banking system must be submitted.

The government is working to amend the economic zones law in a bid to make domestic economic zones more attractive in the face of international competition.

Foreign energy companies’ arrears owed by the electricity sector in Egypt reached USD450 million as of the end of last March, sources said.

SEIC signed a conditional agreement with Social Impact Capital (SIC) to indirectly acquire CIRA’s free float shares through capital increase in SIC. SIC will use the cash injection to launch a mandatory tender offer to buy CIRA shares at price of EGP14.00/share.

CCAP released 4Q23 results. CCAP reported a consolidated net profit of EGP4.8 billion in 4Q23, a 1071% YoY growth (+134% QoQ). 2023 net profit grew 419% YoY to EGP6.5 billion. The company is currently trading at a 2024f PE of 5.3x and EV/EBITDA of 2.5x.

Qalaa Holding Restructuring I Ltd. (QHRI), an SPV by Ahmed Heikal, Hisham El Khazindar and Karim Sadek, who collectively own 23.487% of CCAP, is offering to buy the outstanding debt from the lenders of CCAP (total amount equal to USD325 million). The total amount of debt to be settled (which has been accepted by some of the lenders) amounts to USD231 million. 

Egypt is planning to ramp up natural gas production 8% YoY next fiscal year to an average of 5.7 billion cubic feet a day. 

Assiut National Oil Processing Company (ANOPC) targets operating five units in its hydrogen cracking complex by 2H25 with investments worth USD3.1 billion.

FWRY is holding preliminary talks with six Saudi companies over a potential partnership. The company also held talks with companies in the UAE and Kuwait, according to local press.

Market Overview 

Global ratings agency Fitch revised Egypt's outlook to positive from stable. 

Tourist arrivals to Egypt increased 27% YoY in the first four months of the year.

Foreign holdings of local debt have more than doubled to USD35.3 billion as of March from USD16.6 billion at the end of 2023.

Total orders issued under the government’s car-for-FX initiative have reached just under USD2 billion, according to a statement from the Immigration Ministry. 

Al-Ahly Exchange Company, affiliated with the National Bank of Egypt, has attracted foreign exchange proceeds amounting to EGP12.386 billion since the liberalization of the exchange rate on 6 March 2024.

The IMF expects Egypt’s USD cash flows to rise during the current fiscal year by about USD13.7 billion to reach USD107.3 billion, up from USD93.6 billion in FY2022-23, mainly due to investments in the Ras El Hekma deal.

Egypt's petroleum trade balance turned into a deficit of USD1.1 billion during 2M2024 compared to a surplus of about USD1.73 billion in the same period last year. 

The government reduced the volume of direct borrowing from the CBE last March by 24% on a monthly basis to EGP1.697 trillion.

Emirati energy company Masdar intends to expand in the fields of solar and renewable energy and green hydrogen in Egypt through Infinity Power in the Suez Canal Economic Zone and the Mediterranean Coast.

Norway’s Höegh LNG will send a floating storage and regasification unit to Ain Sokhna next month, as per an agreement it signed with state-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company and Australian Industrial Energy (AIE), according to statements from the Oil Ministry and Höegh LNG. 

ETEL is looking to secure USD500 million in supplier financing from an unnamed Chinese institution to restructure the company’s credit facilities and meet capital requirements, according to local press.

The FRA gave a nod to ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) to proceed in its capital decrease of EGP4.55 million to reach EGP2.71 billion through canceling 910,481 shares at a par value of EGP5/share. 

The Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors has signed a cooperation protocol with the Iraqi Federation of Contractors to study the partnership between Egyptian and Iraqi companies in light of plans to sign agreements with international institutions in the coming period to finance Iraqi projects, especially the Islamic Development Bank.

The CBE issued new ownership rules for banks where buyers who are going to acquire more than a 10% stake in a bank, or a stake that would otherwise grant the buyer voting rights, will have to file a request to the CBE at least 60 days ahead of finalizing the agreement. 

Banque Misr’s Misr Digital Innovation (MDI) received preliminary approval from the Central Bank of Egypt to launch the country’s first digital bank.

Basata Financial Holding is also looking into setting up a digital bank. The company is reportedly in the process of studying the requirements of acquiring a digital bank license.

EBRD has greenlit a senior unsecured loan of up to USD20 million to CIEB that will be used to support Egyptian households and private MSMEs to back climate adaptation projects.

CIRAsettled the final installment of its EBRD loan, worth EGP270 million. Additionally, the company aims to issue securitization bonds of around EGP500 million in the next fiscal year, representing the remaining part of the total program of EGP2.0 billion, according to local press.

Market Overview 
ABUK 
ALCN
COMI
ORHD
ESES
MENA
DOMT
BTFH
SWDY
ORWE
EGTS


Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains incurred from trading EGX-listed financial securities starting March-April 2025, according to a cabinet statement.

Kuwait’s Alghanim International is reportedly looking to inject USD300 million worth of investments in the Berenice maritime port. 

China’s state-owned Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Company is planning to follow up its under-construction iron pipes factory in the TEDA industrial park with USD250 million of future investments in the park.

The Cabinet ministers approved a request from Tunisian automotive cable manufacturer Coficab to establish an automotive cable and electrical factory, with investments up to USD88 million.

The Cabinet ministers approved a proposal for Egypt to join the African Trade and Investment Development Ins. (ATIDI) in a bid to boost trade with other African nations.

The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% and 5.5%.

The sale of the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr’s combined 26.1% stake in AMOC could raise between EGP3.5-3.8 billion. The sale expected to close by the end of 1H24, according to local press.

ABUK released 3Q23/24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit increased by 46% YoY and 303% QoQ to record EGP8.12 billion during 3Q23/24. On a nine-months basis, net profit declined 3% YoY to EGP12.14 billion. ABUK is currently trading at a FY23/24e PE of 6.2x and EV/EBITDA of 5.8x.

EFIC released 1Q24 unaudited standalone financial indicators. Net profit declined 19% YoY and declined by 80% QoQ to EGP70.9 million.

CIEB (FV: EGP38.20, OW) released 1Q24 financial results. Consolidated bottom-line stood at EGP2,289 million (+69% q/q, +87% y/y). We reiterate our Overweight recommendation and update our FV from EGP33.00/share to EGP38.20/share. The stock is trading at P/E 2024 of 3.0x and P/B 2024 of 1.1x.

AIH OGM approved increasing the company’s paid in capital to EGP467 million from EGP425 million (an increase of EGP42 million), through 1:10 bonus shares, financed from 2023 profits.

ORAS-led consortium received the land allocation for its 3 GW wind farm in West Sohag.

SWDY inked an MoU with Swiss tech firm Bühler Group and Jordan-based firm IBC Group to work towards localizing the manufacture of grain silos in Egypt. 

MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) launched its Sheya project which generated sales of EGP5.1 billion. Sheya is situated on a land area of 0.2 million sqm in Sarai.

According to local media, CIRA aims to inject approximately EGP1.5 billion over the next two years into expansions, primarily focused on the university sector.

Egypt's production of steel rebars surged to 2.2 million tons in 1Q24, 24% higher YoY.

Market Overview 
ADIB
BTFH
SWDY
ETEL
FWRY
EFIH



Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CFTe, CETA

Banks' net foreign assets position improved significantly by c.78% from a net liability position of USD13.2 billion in February to a net liability position of USD2.8 billion in March.

Finance Minister now expects the country’s primary surplus to come in at 5.75% by the end of the current fiscal year.

China’s state-owned Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Company has begun construction on a USD146 million ductile iron pipe factory in the TEDA industrial park, according to an SCZone statement. 

The Ministry of Communications aims to increase digital exports by 30% by the end of this year to exceed USD8 billion.

Egypt aims to increase industrial investments by about 10% during 2024 to reach at least USD3.6 billion.

The General Authority of the Suez Canal Economic Zone signed with the Thai company Hi-Tech a contract granting a usufruct for an area of 64k sqm in the Qantara West area to build a sportswear factory with investments amounting to USD20 million.

Amr El-Kady, CEO of the Tourism Promotion Authority, revealed its intention to launch a major marketing campaign to promote Egyptian tourism in 12 to 14 markets in May.

Banque du Caire will receive a line of financing worth USD25 million from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation and the Saudi Export-Import Bank to help Saudi SMEs expand their presence in Egypt and encourage non-oil exports to Egypt.

SKPCreleased 1Q24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit grew 7% YoY and declined by 13% QoQ to EGP559 million in 1Q24. SKPC is currently trading at 2024e PE of 6.6x and EV/EBITDA of 4.7x.

SKPC's BoD also approved stock dividends of 1:5, increasing the company's issued and paid-in capital from EGP1.5 billion to EGP1.8 billion distributed over 907 million shares and financed from 2023 profits.

SKPC is distributing cash dividends of EGP1.25/share distributed over two tranches. The first tranche worth EGP0.75/share will be distributed on 29 May 2024, while the second tranche worth EGP0.50/share will be distributed on 25 September 2024. the dividend will be distributed for shareholders on record on 26 May 2024. Implied dividend yield is 4.6%.

EGAL reported indicators for 3Q23/24 with net profit after tax coming in at EGP1.8 billion, almost flat QoQ and 19% lower YoY. Meanwhile, 9M23/24 bottom line surged to EGP5.2 billion (+33% YoY). EGAL is currently trading at FY23/24e P/E of 4.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.8x.

Egypt's total iron and steel exports dropped 8% YoY to USD478 million in 1Q24.

HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) signed a contract with Middle East for Real Estate Development and Investment to co-develop an 894 feddan land plot in New Heliopolis, with a minimum guarantee to HELI of EGP23.8 billion. This project is in addition to the 865 feddan project in New Heliopolis that is also to be co-developed by Middle East for Real Estate Development and Investment.

AMIC released its numbers for March 2024, showing a drop in PC sales by 53% MoM and 41% YoY to record 2.8k units, bringing PC sales to 13.4k units in 1Q24 (+9% YoY).

COMI intends to borrow USD50 million during 2H24 from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development with the aim of financing finance green projects in Egypt.

Businessman Ahmed Tarek is reportedly studying investing USD100 million in the healthcare sector over the coming three years and is considering acquiring a 20% stake in an EGX-listed pharmaceutical company, according to local press.

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE will start handing out letters of credit (LCs) to importers of non-essential goods at the start of June.

The government has cleared USD20 billion worth of goods across the country’s ports since the beginning of 2024, a source at the Customs said.

Prime Minister stated during the World Economic Forum meeting in Riyadh that it costs Egypt USD10 billion annually to host 9 million refugees.

Japan has pledged USD230 million in financing to support the state budget, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said.

The Egyptian Tax Authority confirmed that it has not issued any directives or instructions during the previous period to date regarding the application of the tax on capital gains regarding securities on the stock exchange.

The Development Finance Corporation, affiliated with the federal government of the US, is considering financing the Actis Fund’s acquisition of the Jebel El-Zeit wind station.

The CBE sold USD997.6 million worth of one-year treasury bills in an auction, with an average return of 5.149%.

The WB revealed that Egypt's national poverty rate rose in 2022 to 32.5% from 29.7% in FY2019-20 fiscal year.

Egypt plans to bid for four desalination plants at a total cost of USD350 million on the North Coast near Ras El Hekma in mid-July, according to local media. It is worth highlighting thatORASandSWDYwere among the prequalified bidders.

TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) Board approved a share buyback of up to 10.0 million treasury shares during the period 29 April 2024 to 29 May 2024.

According to local media, HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) is planning to select the co-developer of its 580 feddan New Heliopolis land plot in around two weeks and is negotiating to have the down payment paid to HELI increased to EGP1.0 billion. The project is expected to generate revenue of at least EGP35.0 billion, with a minimum gurarntee to HELI of at least EGP17.0 billion.

AMOC released 3Q23/24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit increased by 315% YoY  and declined by 21% QoQ to EGP393 million in 3Q23/24. On a nine-month basis, net profit before minority interest grew by 19% YoY to EGP1.31 billion in 9M23/24. AMOC is currently trading at FY23/24e PE of 4.7x and EV/EBITDA of 3.0x.

According to local media, SUGR net profit declined by 33% YoY in 1Q24 to EGP216.8 million compared to EGP323.8 million in 1Q23.

Ashry Steel is adding two new production lines worth USD150 million to its business that will be completed in ten months to scale up the production of iron and other products and increase total capacity by 30%, according to local media.

Egypt's total cement exports dropped 31% YoY to USD165 million in 1Q24. 

Beltone Holding subsidiary, Beltone Investment Holding (BIH), will launch a USD100 million private credit platform geared towards the needs of Egyptian exporters as well as companies with overseas operations.

Investment management firm Act Financial wants to either acquire or merge with another entity. A number of Saudi and Emirati investors have already expressed interest in taking part in the transaction.

HRHO has issued EGP600 million of debt to its subsidiary Hermes Securities Brokerage (HSB) in the form of a senior unsecured short-term note. 

Market Overview
COMI
ADIB
CCAP
SWDY
ORWE
ALCN
CLHO


prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The Central Bank of Egypt is auctioning off USD980 million worth of one-year t-bills.

The government is reportedly looking to issue new legislation and incentives to make units offered in the New Administrative Capital’s central business district more attractive to foreign investors.

The government will soon announce the new licensing requirements for private sector-run freezones.

Expats have transferred some USD767 million to the government under its car-for-FX scheme.

The IMF report on the first and second reviews of the EFF with Egypt revealed high estimates of fuel subsidies during the current and next fiscal years.

Egypt’s chemical exports recorded USD456 million in March 2024 compared to USD696 million in March 2023.

The Tourism and Finance Ministries agreed to launch a program offering subsidized loans at a 12% interest rate to local and foreign hospitality players looking to set up more hotel rooms in Egypt. ORHD (FV: EGP26.26, OW) and TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) are potential beneficiaries.

OCDI reported 1Q24 net profit of EGP390.1 million, up 108.3% y/y and down 52.7% q/q.

EGTS reported FY23 net loss of EGP112.6 million, compared to FY22 net profit of EGP67.5 million.

ZMID AGM approved 1) the distribution of EGP0.15/share cash dividends (DY of 2.3%) over two tranches and 2) the distribution of 0.89:1 stock dividends.

CIRA released positive 1H23/24 results. Net income grew by 30.6% YoY to record EGP288 million.

OIH released FY23 results, where it recorded a net loss of EGP161 million compared to a net profit of EGP522 million. OIH is currently trading at P/E24 of 12.3x and P/B24 of 0.7x.

Egypt has moved one step higher in the financing sustainability ranking published by the IFC-backed Sustainable Banking and Finance Network (SBFN).

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 89.5 | 2.5%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 309 | 2.9%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 302 | -7.9%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,030 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 975 | 0.0%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 388 | 1.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,540 | -4.5%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,089 | -0.2%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 130 | -0.7%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,541 | 0.0%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market Overview 

We published this morning our earnings expectations sheet for companies under coverage in 1Q24/FY2.

The government said it will develop a payment strategy to reduce arrears owed to international oil companies.

Egypt has collected up to USD760 million from the initiative to facilitate the import of cars for expats, which ends next Monday, according to Finance Minister.

Egypt could receive USD820 million from the International Monetary Fund from June 15 onwards — shortly following the Fund’s third review of the loan program in the same month.

The IMF is anticipating that the state will wrap its stake sale for the Gabal El Zeit wind farm in the current fiscal year and thinks the sale could bring in USD339 million.

The IMF estimates the country’s financing gap at USD28.5 billion for the remainder of the loan program by 2026 when taking into account the inflows from the Ras El Hekma agreement.

The number of tourists visiting Egypt has increased 3-4% YoY in 1Q24, according to a Tourism Ministry statement. 

The Cabinet approved decisions to set up a freezone, investment zone, and international tourist port in the North Coast’s Ras El Hekma.

The China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has inaugurated its CNY87.4 million (c.USD12.3 million) steel structures manufacturing factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

Eni has reportedly “slowed down exploration operations in Egypt a little." Eni’s production in Egypt dropped by 11.7% y-o-y to 293k barrels of oil equivalent by the end of 1Q24.

State gas firm EGAS has purchased another LNG shipment as part of a plan to secure gas supplies ahead of peak consumption this summer.

The IMF estimates Egypt's financing gap during the current fiscal year at about USD9.3 billion that would be financed through the Fund's sources amounting to USD2.5 billion and USD700 million from the World Bank, among other entities and countries.

The Fund also said that the Egyptian authorities plan to increase foreign reserves to USD45.8 billion by the end of current fiscal year and to USD53.8 billion the next year.

The Fund reported that the CBE will not lend to public authorities again, with the exception of the Ministry of Finance, and will work to bring their debts to zero by the end of the next fiscal year.

Prime Minister and Finance Minister discussed a proposed tax policy document for 2024-2030 that will be used to inform and provide clarity to businesses, investors, and society at large on the country’s targets, policies, and plans for taxation over the next six years.

ORAS(FV: EGP233.65, EW) Board of Directors proposed an annual cash dividend of USD0.20/share, bringing total cash dividend for FY23 to USD0.39/share. This implies a dividend yield of 8% and payout ratio of 27% for the year. 

A syndicate of 18 international institutions is putting together a EUR2.3 billion loan for the first line of the high-speed electric railway connecting Ain Sokhna and Matrouh, according to local media. 

OCDI signed with Nobu to open Nobu Hotel and Restaurant East Cairo in OCDI’s EDNC project.

According to local press, FWRY is partnering with Saudi VMS and Waffarha to establish a holding company to manage Waffarha’s operations in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Investment management firm Act Financial got the approval on its IPO on the EGX and expects to start trading its shares within two months. 

CANA is planning to establish a micro-finance company with the SMEs Development Agency. 

Market Overview 



Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today*
The Ministry of Finance reduced the allocations for the export burden rebate program in FY2024/25 budget to EGP23 billion, compared to EGP28 billion in the budget of the current fiscal year. The Chairman of the Export Council for Chemical Industries, said that this reduction will be offset by an acceleration in refunding companies’ export burdens, instead of the current delays.

Ministry of Finance delivered the FY2024/25 budget statement to the House. The document assumes economic growth will accelerate to 4.2% in the coming fiscal year, up from an estimated 2.9% in FY 2023/24. Headline inflation will average 17.9% down from a projected 35.7% this fiscal year, according to the document.  Debt-to-GDP ratio seen falling to to 89.0% by the end of the current fiscal year, from 95.7% in the last fiscal year. The budget deficit seen rising to 7.3% of the country’s GDP in the next fiscal year, from 7.2% estimated in the budget for the current fiscal year.

The statistical statement of the economic bodies on the draft general budget revealed that the economic authorities in the transportation sector intend to borrow EGP119 billion from abroad in FY2024/25, estimated at USD2.6 billion, according to the draft budget. The sector is also expected to borrow EGP91 billion from domestic resources.

The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company set the price of the dollar in the budget for the next fiscal year 2024/25 at EGP49.55, compared to the price of EGP30.9 pounds in the budget for the current fiscal year.

The Shalatin Mineral Resources Company, affiliated to the Oil Ministry delivered shipments of gold to the CBE ranging between 200 and 220 kilograms during 1Q2024, with a value exceeding EGP400 million.

EGX-listed companies can buy or sell treasury shares on the open or secondary markets, under recent regulatory amendments issued by the FRA. The amendments aim to increase demand for treasury shares.

BINV BoD approved a decision to increase the company’s share capital ahead of its share swap agreement with Orascom Financial Holding (OFH). The company will issue some 58.3 mn shares at a value of EGP5 per share, raising its capital from EGP800 mn to around EGP1.09 bn.

SAUD has appointed Moataz Elkasaby as its chief operating officer. 

DOMT will distribute cash dividends of EGP0.5/share, implying a dividend payout of 31% and a dividend yield of 4.4%. Record date is on 8 May 2024 and distribution date is on 13 May 2024.

The Egyptian government has contracted to purchase 500K tons of sugar, and this quantity is scheduled to arrive successively during the coming period.

We remind you that EGTS’s next court date for the 20.0 million sqm third phase Sahl Hasheesh land plot lawsuit is, if not further postponed, on 27 April 2024.

According to local media, the Madbouly government is looking to lease a re-gasification unit from Norwegian firm Höegh LNG, with the unit arriving by summer. The government is reportedly also in talks with BW Energy to lease a unit from the Norwegian-Singaporian company for a five-year period. 

Israeli exports of natural gas to Egypt are set to rise 300 mn cf/d to 1.5 bn cf\d starting from 2H2025.

Market Overview 



Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Market Overview 



Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA,  CFTe

The CBE's net foreign liabilities' position shrank in March by about 84% to be limited to USD1.38 billion, compared to USD8.7 billion in February, the lowest since March 2022.

The IMF revealed that the government is developing an electronic system for government procurement and studying the strengths and weaknesses of the public procurement system to improve the management of public investments.

Saudi Arabia’s Ajlan & Bros Holding has filed an offer to the government to secure a land plot in Sharm El Sheikh’s Ras Gamila for the establishment of ten hotels. The first phase will see Ajlan commit USD1.5 billion for the development of the hotels, excluding the price of the plot.

Egypt has reportedly received the second USD820 million tranche under the IMF’s USD8 billion loan program. 

The Oil Ministry is reportedly stopping all LNG exports to European markets starting next month.

The private sector is expected to pour close to EGP10 billion into setting up projects in former HQs of government ministries that are currently being offered up as part of the state’s privatization efforts, move to the new administrative capital, and plan to develop the downtown area, Planning Minister said.

The disruptions in the Red Sea prompted the CBE to expect weak purchases of foreign currency revenues from the Suez Canal during the year starting from March 2024 until February 2025. The bank expected to buy about USD3.4 billion from the Suez Canal, which is a limited value compared to previous expectations of purchases.

SWDY's general assembly approved a cash dividend distribution of EGP0.50/share for FY23, implying a payout ratio of 45.5% and a DY of 1.4%.

SWDY's general assembly approved decreasing the company's issued and paid-in capital from EGP2.17 billion to EGP2.14 billion through redeeming 30 million treasury shares with a value of EGP30 million. 

The Madbouly government plans to launch tenders for an unspecified number of water desalination projects in the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and the Suez Canal within weeks.

MASR(FV: EGP5.24, OW) AGM approved the distribution of EGP0.20/share cash dividends (DY of 5.1%) over two tranches: EGP0.10/share in May 2024 and EGP010/share in October 2024.

OLFI is distributing cash dividends of EGP0.95/share, implying a payout ratio of 81% and a DY of 8.4%. Record date is 2 May 2024 and distribution date is 5 May 2024.

DSCW shareholders approved the distribution of cash dividends of EGP0.17/share, implying a payout ratio of 66.6% and a DY of 11.2%.

According to local press, EDA approved increasing the prices of some drugs in light of the increase in production costs attributed to the EGP devaluation. Sourced added that price increases of some drugs reached 50%. The implementation of price increases will occur gradually over stages.

BINV has finalized acquiring 68.9% of OFH (3.31 billion shares at an average price of EGP0.44/share). According to BINV’s CEO, the Sawiris family now owns around 20% in BINV after the transaction.

Sohoula consumer finance, Banque Misr’s arm, aims for securitization issuances worth more than EGP1 billion divided into two issues each worth EGP500 million, one to be finalized in 1H24 and the second towards the end of the year. 

Shell Egypt will begin the 11th development phase of the West Delta Deep Marine offshore concession in 3Q24. 

Weekly Commodities Update

Market Overview 
CCAP
UEGC
ESRS
HRHO 
QNBA
AIH


Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The World Bank is considering providing a USD300 million loan to the Small and Medium Enterprises Agency, with the aim of enhancing the flexibility of small businesses in Egypt. 

Egypt's CDS rate rose during the past week, which witnessed an increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, to 6.93% for 5 years at the close of trading on Friday, compared to 5.8% at the end of the previous week.

The government aims to raise around USD1 billion through the privatization of state-owned companies and assets via stake sales to strategic investors or EGX listings this year, and USD1.5 billion next year.

The next stage for Egypt is to “to accelerate the pace of reform” by achieving four goals, IMF Middle East and Central Asia head Jihad Azour said on the sidelines of the IMF and WB spring meetup in Washington. The goals are:
 
 1. To reduce the risks to the Egyptian economy. “The flexibility of the exchange rate contributes to this matter”.

2. Bringing down inflation. 
3. Raising the level of social protection.

4. Promote the private sector and job creation.

The price of non-subsidized bread will start falling starting today until it reaches normal levels. 

Minister of Supply announced a decrease in oil prices by 14%, in addition to previous reductions, bringing the total reductions on oil to 36%.

Finance Minister and Planning Minister will head to the House tomorrow to give statements on the draft state budget and socioeconomic development plan for FY2024-25. 

Egypt has inked 14 agreements with Chinese companies to set up projects alongside our local private sector.

The government aims to extend the average maturity of its debt instruments to 4.5-5 years as it focuses on longer-term bonds.

The Egyptian government received seven offers from international hotel chains to take advantage of old ministries’ headquarters.

Cabinet approved extending foreign operators’ exemption from airport fees until November 2024 as part of the state’s efforts to boost tourism.

ADIB is in talks to purchase a 15% stake in Bank Syariah Indonesia, Indonesia's biggest Islamic bank, for USD1.1 billion.

Mortgage finance firms could soon see their capital requirement doubled to EGP100 million local currency or its equivalent in FX, up from EGP50 million under new amendments. 

The FRA is working on developing a plan to implement Solvency II standards to enhance the financial and operational efficiency of insurance companies.

PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) confirmed that it is co-developing a 415 feddan project in Sidi Heneish on the North Coast and stated that expected revenue and revenue share are still to be determined. The project will be launched in 2Q24.

According to local media, PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) is preparing to take out a EGP1.7 billion loan.

According to local media, natural gas production in Egypt declined to 4.286 bcf in February 2024 from 4.651 bcf in January 2024, the lowest since February 2018.

Energean plc, an international hydrocarbon exploration and production company, expects to invest USD30-50 million in Egypt during 2024. 

SDX sold its 50% working interest in two blocks in the West Gharib concession in the Eastern Desert to Horizons LLC and NPC Petroleum Services for USD6.6 million. 

According to local media, in light of the decrease in price of locally produced cars, GBCO will compensate distributors for these price differences.

Market overview 

The Finance Ministry yesterday released its preliminary budget report: growth projection slashed again to 4.0%, inflation targets revised upwards to an average of 18.1%, and budget deficit to widen slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 7.3%. 

The government is preparing to launch a USD1.1 billion program to implement the state ownership policy, and a document issued by the World Bank revealed that the government will obtain partial financing for the program worth USD250 million to cover the operating cost.

Minister of Finance said that Egypt will receive about USD20 billion from the disbursement of the second tranche of the Ras El Hekma project by the end of May, in addition to the expected inflows of c. USD1 billion from the World Bank, in addition to EUR1.07 billion from the EU and USD820 million from the IMF until the end of June.

Saudi Arabia’s Ajlan & Bros Holding has reportedly indicated its interest in developing an integrated tourism project in Ras Gamila in a letter to the government, unnamed sources said.

The export councils are seeking to establish export intermediation companies whose mission is to market Egyptian products in the foreign markets, instead of producing companies. 

The Minister of Finance said that the government is trying to extend the maturity of some of its domestic debt held by public entities to alleviate some of the pressure on the state budget.

Misr Clearing Company is preparing to collect capital gains tax from investors after completing the tax base and collection system within two months, sources said, adding that the collection process will be carried out for the entire year 2023 and six months of 2014.

PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) is co-developing a 420 feddan project in Sidi Heneish on the North Coast with Cleopatra Group whereby PHDC will be entitled to 67% of revenue as the developer and Cleopatra Group will be entitled to 33% of revenue as the land owner. The project is expected to generate revenue of over EGP100.0 billion within seven years. 

The US President called for more than tripling the existing 7.5% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum imports, new pressure on Mexico to prevent China from shipping metals to the United States via Mexican ports, and an investigation of Chinese subsidies for its shipbuilding industry.

Crude oil futures fell more than 3% Wednesday as the market dismissed the risk of a wider war between Israel and Iran that could disrupt supplies. June Brent futures were down USD2.73, or 3.03%, at settle at USD87.29/bbl.

GBCO announced the launch of a new JV (GSK) to manage the MG Motor dealership in Jordon. GSK is a partnership between GB Auto and the former MG Motors distributor in Jordon.

Beltone Financial Holding announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Beltone Venture Capital, signed a partnership agreement with CI Venture Capital, a wholly owned subsidiary of Citadel International Holdings, an investment management firm in Abu Dhabi, to manage a USD30 million fund to back fast-growing startups. 

 OFH shareholders have responded to BINV’s MTO for a majority stake in the company, where owners of some 3.3 billion shares (a 69% stake in the company) responded to the offer. BINV will now need to complete the share swap. 

Several banks have recently issued savings certificates for large clients, amid increased interest rates and increased competition to maintain more liquidity. The minimum amount for purchasing those new savings certificates ranges between EGP1 million and EGP10 million, and the fixed interest rate on these certificates ranges between 21% and 25.5% with a monthly exchange period.

Market Overview 
MASR
ORHD
EMFD
ESRS
ALCN



prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The IMF has maintained its projection for Egypt’s real GDP growth in FY2023/24 at 3%, and to rebound to 4.4 percent in FY2024/25.

Interest payments in the state budget FY2024/25 are estimated at EGP1.8 trillion, about 70% of the total revenues of EGP2.63 trillion, due to higher estimation of average interest payment on treasuries, at 25%, compared to 18.5% in FY2023/24.

The government is looking to restart a number of stalled state projects building social housing, waste management facilities, and water infrastructure.

Qatar and Algeria will become our two main sources of LNG, as the government seeks to import up to 52.5 bn cubic feet to meet heightened summer demand, an unnamed government official said

Egypt’s exports grew 5.3% YoY in the first three months of the year to total USD 9.6 bn.

The Minister of Finance said that the government hopes to achieve the targets of its companies sales' program in 3 to 5 years. He added that the government is not likely to issue Eurobonds during the current fiscal year.

CBE is planning to increase the limits on transfers through Instapay and the digital channels of banks.

FAIT’s standalone net profit expanded by 48% y/y in 1Q24 recording EGP6 billion, supported by strong r growth (+82.4% y/y) which stood at EGP10.17 billion.

EGX announced the opening price of the subscription right for KIMA’s capital increase at EGP3.27/share.

MNT-Halan, GB Capital subsidiary,  is considering launching a multi-sukuk issuance program worth EGP20 billion during the coming period. The program is still in its initial stages, and its aim is to finance the company’s subsidiaries “Halan, Mashroey and Tasaheel”. 

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE has increased cash withdrawal limits from EGP150k to EGP250k per day from banks, and from EGP20k to EGP30k per day from ATMs.

World Bank expects Egypt's GDP growth to decline to 2.8% in FY2023/24 from 3.8% in FY2022/23, 0.7 percentage point drop from its previous forecast in January, exacerbated by the repercussions of the Middle East conflict on Suez Canal and tourism. Growth is expected to record 4.2% in FY2024/25.

The Renewable Energy Authority and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt are planning to open up bidding for the second half of the Zafarana wind farm in the latter half of the year. 

The government unveiled its plans to build two solar power plants for EGPC worth over EGP1 billion, to be financed by a grant from the EU.

Egypt's fuel imports increased to USD3.3 billion during 1Q24, an increase of 6% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year.

ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) reported its 4Q23 and FY23 consolidated financial results with solid operational performance. Net attributable income came in at EGP1.0 billion in 4Q23, 82% higher YoY, and reversing 3Q23 loss of EGP508.8 million. This brings FY23 attributable loss to EGP113.0 million vs. a net profit of EGP4.3 billion in FY22. ESRS is currently trading at FY24e P/E of 1.4x.

ESRS’s Board of Directors is holding an extraordinary general assembly to consider reducing the company’s capital through retiring treasury shares worth EGP910.5 million.

Qalaa Holdings (CCAP) has signed a debt settlement agreement with Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, Arab African International Bank, and Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait whereby Qalaa settles the entirety of its debts for a total of EGP4.547 billion as follows:

1.            Selling 239.1 million shares, representing 17.68% of TAQA Arabia, with Qalaa retaining the right to repurchase those shares within five years, and the banks having the right to resell those shares to Qalaa in the sixth year.

2.            A registered 60,127 sqm land plot overlooking the Nile in Tibeen area.

3.            Compensations for variations in exchange rate and stock prices. 

MOPCO clarified that the merged company net profit on 31 December 2023 was EGP3.59 billion, and the net profit of the merging company was EGP5.97 billion in the same period. It added that the merged company net profit was reported in the equity section of the merging company financial statement in FY23. 

Local free market urea prices increased from EGP16k to EGP20k per ton during the last month with the start of the summer cultivation season.

Petrotreatment is planning to float its shares on EGX during the coming period.

HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) expects to complete its financial assessment of the three offers it received from Hyde Park Developments, MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW), and Mountain View to co-develop 500 feddans in New Heliopolis before the end of April 2024 in preparation for selecting an offer.

DOMT shareholders approved cash dividend distribution of EGP0.50/share to be distributed in May 2024. This implies a dividend payout of 31% and dividend yield of 4.2%. 

Weekly Commodities Update
|Last Price | WoW Change, %
Brent, USD/bbl | 90.5 | -0.8%
Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 363.1 | -5.3%
Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 328.0 | 0.0%
Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,030.0 | 0.0%
Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970.0 | 0.0%
Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 394.1 | -3.3%
LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,448.1 | 1.5%
Egyptia Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,095.0 | -0.1%
Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 129.3 | 0.1%
SMP, USD/MT | 2,550.0 | 0.0%
Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market Overview 
ORWE
HRHO
SWDY 
EKHOA
SUGR
ESRS


prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA  - CFTe

The CBE released balance of payments (BoP) data for 1HFY2023/24, which is not yet reflecting the effect of the EGP devaluation nor any massive FDI deals or fundings agreed upon during 1Q2024. 

Annual urban inflation receded to 33.3% YoY in March, down from of 35.7% in February.  Monthly urban inflation dropped to 1% MoM from the record high of 11.4% recorded in February. 

The EU on Friday said it would provide Egypt with EUR1 billion (USD1.07 billion) in short-term financial aid to help stabilize the country's economy.

Three exchange companies affiliated with the three largest government banks attracted FX amounting to EGP12.97 billion since the liberalization of the exchange rate early March.

The World Bank is studying lending Egypt USD700 million to support a resilient, green, and competitive economy.

The EBRD approved the provision of a long-term senior loan of up to USD140 million (c. EUR 129 million) to finance the acquisition of the Gabal El Zeit windfarm.

The government allocated EGP858 billion to the education sector in the next fiscal year’s draft budget, up 45% y-o-y. Healthcare will see a nearly 25% increase in the draft budget, with EGP496 billion allocated to the sector. Social protection is set for a 20% increase, with EGP636 billion earmarked in the coming fiscal year’s draft budget.

EGAS is looking to import no less than one LNG shipment a month until July or August in efforts to prevent a repeat of last year’s rolling blackouts. 

The Minister of Finance said that the overall budget deficit during 9MFY2023/24 declined to 5.42%, compared to 6.2% during the same period of the last fiscal year. A primary surplus of 3% of GDP was recorded at a value of EGP416 billion.

EAST has raised the prices of cigarettes by an average of 12%, which was put into action starting Sunday, 14 April 2024. 

JUFO released 4Q23 full financials. Attributable net profit recorded EGP142 million in 4Q23 (-13.6%, YoY, -56.1% QoQ). FY23 net profit recorded EGP1,021 million (+60.1% YoY). JUFO is currently trading at a FY24f P/E of 9.4x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.0x.

QNBA recorded a strong set of results with 1Q24 net profit post-minority interest recording EGP7,042 million (+90% q/q, +49% y/y). The stock is currently trading at 2024 multiples of P/B of 0.8x and P/E of 3.5x.

Africa’s largest lender, Standard Bank Group, will set up a new representative office in Egypt by the end of the year.

According to local media sources, financial leasing companies are facing difficulties in accessing debt markets after the recent controls issued by the CBE to regulate banks’ financing to the sector. 

EKHO will distribute cash dividends of USD0.06/share on 30 April 2024 to shareholders on record on 24 April 2024, implying a dividend yield of 6.7%.

Oil prices, which hit a six-month high on Friday, might rise on Monday after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Brent crude reached USD92.18/bbl on Friday, the highest since October. For the week, Brent declined 0.8% to settle at USD90.45/bbl. 

According to local media, PHAR aims to export to about 11 new countries by 2027.

According to local media, EBRD will provide MNT-Halan microfinance subsidiary Tasaheel Finance with EGP700 million to on-lend to women-run SMEs in Egypt.

Market Overview 
ALCN
EKHOA 
PHDC
ABUK 
MFPC


prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The National Council of Wages raised the minimum wage for private sector workers by 71% to EGP6,000 starting in May.

The Central Bank of Egypt is looking into imposing fines on importers who refuse to move their goods from ports even after receiving the required FX to do so.

The Libyan Investment Authority is reportedly looking into acquiring a majority stake or 100% of an unnamed Egyptian commercial bank.

The proceeds of FX concessions at three exchange companies affiliated with the three largest government banks recorded EGP11.246 billion since the liberalization of the FX rate on 6 March.

According to local media, HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) received offers from Hyde Park Developments and La Vista Developments to co-develop 500 feddans in New Heliopolis. We remind you that HELI had also received an offer from Mountain View at the end of February 2024 to co-develop 517 feddans in New Heliopolis and an offer fromMASR(FV: EGP5.24, OW) at the beginning of March 2024 to co-develop 580 feddans in New Heliopolis.

EFIH is distributing cash dividends of EGP0.19/share (DPO: 28%, DY: 0.8%). Record date is on 24 April 2024 and distribution date is on 30 April 2024.

OLFI'sgeneral assembly approved the proposed cash dividend distribution of EGP0.95/share, implying a payout ratio of 81% and a DY of 8.5%.

GBCOdeclared cash dividends of EGP0.20/share, implying a payout ratio of 11.5% and a DY of 1.7%. Record date is on 21 April 2024 and distribution date is on 24 April 2024.

KIMA is increasing its issued and paid-in capital through a rights issue from EGP5.9 billion to EGP9.9 billion by EGP4 billion distributed over 800 million shares at a par value of EGP5/share in addition to EGP0.05/share as issuance expenses.

The Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) is allowing companies to place two prices on packages, one for sale in the local market and the other for export.

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 91.2 | 4.2%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 384 | 6.0%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 328 | -1.4%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,030 | -1.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970 | 0.0%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 405 | -2.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,413 | 5.1%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,097 | -0.4%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 129 | 0.0%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,517 | 0.0%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market Overview 

Trade deficit amounted to USD2.08 billion in January, compared to USD3.32 billion for the same month in 2023, a decrease of 37.2%.

The Italian "Eni" revealed that it spent USD230 million in 2023 on the development works in Zohr Field, bringing its total expenses on the field to USD6.2 billion.

The government discussed main criteria for establishing new special free zones, including the type of the activity, size of employment, exported portion of the output, dependence on local input, and others.

Authorities are in talks to lease a floating storage regasification unit (FSRU), with plans to dock the terminal at the Gulf of Suez.

The government has developed a mobile application to enable users to view and report commodity prices.

Customers have sold nearly EGP10.5 bn worth of foreign currency at the National Bank of Egypt’s, Banque Misr’s, and Banque du Caire’s foreign currency exchange bureaus since the float of the EGP.

The Real Estate Tax Authority targets EGP8 billion in revenue in the next fiscal year.

Expats have until Monday, 29 April to register for the expat car-for-FX initiative.

The government is embarking on a project to make Greater Cairo a more attractive tourist destination.

El Sisi promised to continue implementing economic reforms based on “the localization of industry, expansion of the agricultural area, increase of foreign direct investment, and support for the private sector, while providing the necessary social protection measures for the most vulnerable classes.”

ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) reduced its local rebar and flat steel prices by 12% and 17% to EGP40.7k/ton and EGP41.7k/ton, inclusive of 14% VAT. 

The study of the technical and financial offers submitted for the rehabilitation of EGAL's facility is expected to take one month, according to local media.

 EFID declared cash dividends of EGP0.43/share for FY23, implying dividend payout ratio of 18.4% and dividend yield of 1.3%. Dividends will be distributed on April 24, 2024 and record date to be on April 21, 2024.

ABUK and Helwan Fertilizers submitted a request for the government to revise the subsidized fertilizers prices due to the higher production cost after floatation. 

Investment management firm Act Financial is looking to raise EGP700 mn selling off a minority stake next month. EGP 500 mn will come from the sale to investors via private placement and the remaining EGP 200 mn will come from the public offering.

 The Cairo Twenty-Four website stated that Kuwaiti investors submitted an offer to acquire Banque du Caire.

Market Overview 

Net International reserves surged to record USD 40.46 billion in March, up from USD35.31 billion in February.

Foreign investors have poured USD17.8 bn into Egyptian government debt in the first quarter of 2024.

The cabinet approved the new EGP120 bn program of subsidized loans for manufacturers in freezones as well as agriculture and renewable energy companies — which offers financing at an interest rate of 15%.

The cabinet approved the executive regulations for the new Building Reconciliation Act. 

The cabinet approved amendments to executive regulations of the Competition Act. 

The cabinet also approved amendments to the law regulating the importers registry with the aim of facilitating the registration process for importers. 

Egypt is negotiating with the European Union to get a EUR2 billion grant, within the framework of implementing electrical interconnection projects with Italy and Greece.

ORWE approved cash dividends for FY23 of EGP1.25/share to be distributed in May 2024, implying payout ratio of 48% and dividend yield of 7.8%.

According to local media, Tobacco distributors got the government’s approval to hike prices by up to 12%. EASTCEO said it will raise its prices by a lot less than the 12% cap. 

According to local media, the Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) is studying a number of requests and proposals for new medicine pricing schemes put forward by local pharma companies. 

The Egyptian Railway Authority of the Ministry of Transportation plans to offer a tender worth USD300 million, early 2025, to develop the signaling and control systems for the Luxor-High Dam railway.

EBRD agreed to provide a loan worth EGP700 million to Tasaheel Microfinance Company, to support the European Bank’s “Women in Business” program in Egypt, which targets supporting female entrepreneurs.

Market Overview 
HELI
ORAS
AMOC
SKPC


prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Government sources said that the Ministry of Finance has raised expected VAT revenues in the next fiscal year to EGP835 billion, an increase of 25% over the budget estimates for the current year 2023-2024, due to high inflation rates.

Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 47.1 in February to 47.6 in March, indicating a softer, but still-solid deterioration in the health of the non oil private sector.  Output and new orders' volumes declined, yet input and output price inflation softened, and signals were reported that recent measures to combat Egypt's currency crisis, particularly the raising of interest rates and floating of the Egyptian pound, did bring some relief to price pressures.

Tourist arrivals were up 4% y-o-y in 1Q 2024 to 3.7 mn, but arrivals to Sharm El Sheikh were down 20% y-o-y in the same period, a government official said.

El Sisi has given final approval for the amendments to the Unified Budget Act. 

The Ministry of Electricity’s purchase bill for renewable energy from investors increased by about EGP700 million per month to reach EGP2 billion after the liberalization of the exchange rate.

British Capricorn Energy has allocated USD10 million for exploration in Egypt in 2024, in five fields.

EGAL raised the prices of its products in early April by around EGP3,000/ton, backed by the hike in primary aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in March. 

EGAL is working on the final studies to launch the aluminum foil project with investments of USD100 million and production capacity of 50k tpa. EGAL is also looking into setting up a USD15 million aluminum silk production line by 2025.

SWDY's subsidiary Elsewedy Industrial Development is expected to break ground on its industrial zone — dubbed Industria October — in New 6 October City upon receiving a 2.5 mn-sqm plot from the New Urban Communities Authority within two to three weeks. SWDY plans to wrap up its expansion of its Saudi factory by late 2024. The company also wants to step into Latin America this year, with a focus on infrastructure, electricity, renewable energy, and gas sectors. 

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after a session in which Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed the Brent benchmark above USD89/bbl for the first time since October. Brent futures for June delivery settled up 1.7%, at USD88.92/bbl.

State-owned El Nasr Mining Company, an unnamed Indian company, and an unnamed local private company have set up a mining company for phosphate with combined investments of USD400 million. The private company holds a 40% stake in the joint venture, while El Nasr owns 24%. The Indian company owns the remaining 36%.

The agricultural sector revealed that a number of feed factories reduced the supply price of feed for poultry farms, and the reduction rates ranged between EGP300-EGP400 per ton, depending on the type. 

CEO of Holdipharma company communicated that they will finish the development of 9 affiliated factories, with investment cost of around EGP1 billion, and will inaugurate by 30 April. Also, he mentioned that they will register 30 new drugs for chronic diseases with prices lower than current market prices. 

Market Overview 
AMOC
ORAS
SKPC
MFPC
AFDI


prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The IMF is scheduled to complete its third review of Egypt's USD8 billion loan deal by the end of June, and its last review by 2026. The remaining five reviews will take place every six months, with each disbursement programmed to be around USD1.3 billion.

Egypt’s GDP growth slowed to 2.3% in 2Q 2023-24, down from 2.65% in 1Q 2023-24 and 3.9% during the same period last year.

Net Foreign Assets of the banking system improved significantly in February, recording a net liability position of USD21.97 billion up from a NFL position of USD29 billion in January. 

Egypt's external debt increased by about 2.1% during 4Q2024, equivalent to USD3.5 billion, according to Ministry of Planning, reaching USD168.04 billion in December 2023 compared to USD164.522 billion at the end of September 2023.

The EU-Egypt Investment Conference is happening on Saturday, June 29, according to a cabinet statement. 

The Oil Ministry has been working on a plan that will see state-owned firm Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company producing the country’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). 

The current account deficit rose in 2Q FY2023-24 to USD6.83 billion, compared to a surplus of USD1.4 billion in the same quarter of the last fiscal year, and a deficit of USD2.8 billion in the first quarter of the year.

HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) reported expectedly strong FY23 revenue of EGP15.6 billion, up 756% y/y, and FY23 net profit of EGP7.8 billion, up 1194% y/y. 

EFIC will distribute EGP2/share on 30 April, EGP2/share on 20 October, and EGP3/share on 1 December 2024. DPS is a total of EGP7/share, implying a dividend yield of 9%. The company's general assembly approved increasing issued and paid-in capital from EGP727.7 million to EGP1 billion.

Qalaa Holdings (CCAP) announced the closing of an agreement with Financial Holdings International Ltd (FHI), a shareholder in several affiliates of Qalaa, and a creditor to Qalaa and some of its affiliates. The share purchase and debt assignment agreement settles most of the liabilities owed by Qalaa and certain of its affiliates to FHI, and transfers the shareholding of FHI in several Qalaa affiliates to Qalaa. 

The government is currently mulling over a project to produce sustainable biofuel from jatropha plants, where laboratory studies are being funded via an Italian grant. 

EGAL announced that two companies, namely the Chinese NFC and the Emirati Fleet Energy Company, have submitted technical offers for the rehabilitation project of EGAL’s facility. 

AMIC released its figures for February 2024 where auto sales volume in February increased by a 10% MoM and 21.7% YoY to 7.3k units.

BINV released positive FY23 financial results where the bottom-line recorded EGP518 million (-39% y/y). However, after adding the capital gain received from the exit of Total Energies Egypt to the reported net income, the company’s FY23 total income reached EGP1,228 million compared to EGP846 million in FY22 (+45% y/y). 

Valu, HRHO’s consumer finance arm, signed an agreement with Noon payments to provide customers flexible payment agreements.

The CBE’s BoD decided to issue the attached supervisory instructions regarding “Requirements for the Stress Tests for Banks,” where an internal assessment report for capital adequacy should be provided, which reflects an assessment of the banks’ ability to deal with various risks. 

CANA’s AGM approved 1) increasing the bank’s authorized capital to EGP10 bn from a current EGP5 billion, 2) approving the dividend distribution proposal (free shares worth EGP1.5 billion), which will bring the paid-in capital to EGP6.5 bn

The General Union of Poultry Producers announced the launch of an initiative to reduce the price of chicken by 10 to 15%, and to reduce the price of an egg carton to EGP145 from EGP156. 

Market Overview 
BTFH
SUGR
SWDY 
PHDC
HELI
MFPC
SKPC
EFIH
ORAS


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The Prime Minister approved a new EGP120 billion program of subsidized loans for manufacturers in freezones as well as agriculture and renewable energy companies.

The European Union is looking to deliver the first tranche, EUR1 billion, of the bloc’s pledged EUR5 billion of concessional loans as part of its EUR7.4 billion package to Egypt before next summer.

Merchandise circulation in the ports returned to normal levels after periods of accumulation and decreased to USD1.8 billion.

The EU-Egypt Investment Conference is now penciled in for June, EU Ambassador to Cairo said. The conference, originally scheduled for May, is expected to bring together some 450 European companies.

President El Sisi called for the swift completion of the required legislative steps to facilitate the participation of the private sector in the country’s healthcare sector, the President said during a meeting.

Russian company Infinity intends to invest USD1 billion in Egypt in the mining sector, after announcing a global auction for gold carried out by Shalatin Mineral Resources Company.

The British Pharos Energy received USD10 million of its arrears from EGPC, in addition to USD5.7 million during 2023, which is equivalent to 26.7% of its dues by the end of 2023, amounting to USD37.4 million.

JUFO released 4Q23 financial indicators. Attributable net profit recorded EGP141 million in 4Q23 (-56.1% YoY, -13.7% QoQ). This brings FY23 attributable net profit to EGP1.0 billion (+60.0% YoY). JUFO is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 9.8x and EV/EBITDA of 5.2x.

JUFO’s BoD proposed cash dividends distribution of EGP0.20/share, implying payout ratio of 18.4% and a dividend yield of 1.2%. 

Negotiations between SKPC and Ethydco for a merger are resumed after receiving the approval of ADQ for a share swap. The merger is expected to be finalized in 3Q24. 

ADES targets to complete drilling six oil wells in Ras Ghareb during 2H24.

COMI (FV: EGP100, OW) is to distribute cash dividends of EGP0.55/share, implying a DY of 0.7% and a payout ratio of 5.6% of 2023 net profit. Record date is 21 April 2024 while distribution date is 24 April 2024.

AIH reported positive FY23 results where net consolidated attributable income stood at EGP90.16 million (+28% y/y). AIH is currently trading at P/E24 of 8.4x and P/B24 of 0.8x.

According to local media, Drive Finance, a subsidiary of GB Capital, owned by GBCO, is considering issuing a financing sukuk program worth EGP2 billion before the end of this year.  

GBCO plans to start operating its car assembly plant in Sadat City by the beginning of 2025. 

MCQE's (FV: EGP22.36, EW) general assembly approved the proposed cash dividend distribution of EGP0.5/share for FY23 to be distributed in two equal installments. This implies a DY of 3% and payout ratio of 51%.

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 87.5 | 2.4%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 362 | -2.2%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 333 | -6.3%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,040 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970 | 0.5%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 408 | 3.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,295 | 1.4%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,106 | 0.0%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 129 | 1.1%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,517 | 0.0%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market overview 
TMGH
ESRS
SWDY
EKHO


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The IMF Board completed the First and Second Reviews for Egypt and approved an augmentation of the original program by about USD5 billion, allowing the authorities to draw the equivalent of about USD820 million. 

Egypt will receive the first tranche of an expanded loan agreement with the IMF next week, Prime Minister said during a news conference. He added that it is expected to receive the second batch for the Ras El Hikma deal early May.

The EU intends to fast-track some of its aid money to Egypt using an urgent funding procedure that bypasses parliamentary oversight and other safeguards.

Foreign investment injected into treasuries have reportedly recorded between USD14 billion to USD16 billion.

A number of sectors and retail chains have begun to respond to the government's initiative to reduce commodity prices.

President El Sisi will officially begin his third term when he takes the constitutional oath on Tuesday before the House of Representatives in the New Administrative Capital. The inauguration will see the presidency begin its move to the New Capital.

The Finance Ministry raised some EGP25 billion worth of one-year t-bills and EGP35 billion worth of six-month bills on Thursday, with yields decreased on high demand. The average yield of the one-year bills dropped to 25.9% from a record high 32.3% earlier this month, while the six-month bills’ average yield dropped to 25.75% from 31.84%.

The government and local private players have signed several agreements with their Italian counterparts, which will see Italy pour over EUR150 million into Egypt, to back food security and support MSMEs. 

The SCZone has greenlit a number of projects.

The SCZone will create a route to transport green fuel produced in the zone to the Dutch Port of Rotterdam, which will help the fuel reach European markets, under an MoU inked between the two sides.

Norwegian paint manufacturer Jotun’s new USD100 million industrial paint and varnish factory has kicked off operations, according to a cabinet statement.

FTSE Russell decided not to strip Egypt and Pakistan of their emerging-market status for at least six-months, as a green light for passive stock funds to resume investing in these countries.

Egypt's agricultural exports grew by 25% YoY during 1Q2024, reaching USD1.5 billion.

Egypt is considering importing liquefied natural gas, aiming to avoid a fuel shortage during this summer.

Oil producer Capricorn Energy received a payment of USD30 million this week from the Egyptian government after its debt to the company rose to USD169 million last year.

ORAS (FV: EGP233.65, EW) subsidiary Orascom Industrial Parks received approval from the General Authority of the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) to develop and manage a EGP13 billion integrated industrial complex in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

According to local media, EFID is interested in acquiring Bisco Misr; however, no official offer has been submitted nor has any procedure been taken. 

IDHC released 4Q23 full financials. Net attributable profit recorded EGP109 million in 4Q23 (-20.5% YoY, -38.7% QoQ). Attributable net profit dropped by 5.7% YoY to record EGP510 million in FY23. IDHC is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 14.4x and EV/EBITDA of 7.6x

The Sovereign Fund of Egypt aims to acquire a controlling stake in the company that owns Misr Pharmacies chain through its subsidiary fund specializing in healthcare. 

The FRA released its latest quarterly report on how non-banking financial services (NBFS) performed. 

NBE has acquired the Egyptian Arab Land Bank’s entire 24% stake in property developer Hyde Park Developments for an undisclosed sum. 

Market Overview 
DSCW
GBCO
PHDC 

Minister of Planning said that priority in the FY2024/25 budget's development plan has been given to establishing and expanding water and food security projects. 

The Council agreed on the draft budget for FY 2024-25, as well as the budgets of public economic bodies, in preparation for sending them to the House of Representatives. The budget targets primary surplus of 3.5% and a EGP1.35 trillion deficit, with a downward trajectory for the overall deficit to reach 6% on the medium term. 

The government targets increasing the share of private sector in total implemented investments in FY2024/25 to 50% up from 36% in the current fiscal year and up from 25.5% in FY2022-23.

The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) plans to issue up to EGP260 billion worth of sharia-compliant bonds in 2024. 

Global index provider FTSE Russell is keeping Egypt on its watchlist for a possible demotion in its equity indexes as it continues to monitor the market following an improvement in foreign investors’ ability to repatriate returns from the country.

The Cabinet approved a draft decision that would authorize the Suez Canal Authority to participate in establishing Al Alamein Ports and Yacht Management, a joint-stock company that will be tasked with setting up and operating a yacht marina on the North Coast.

The Cabinet also approved amendments to the investment law's executive regulations that would allow investors to set up private service projects in freezones through partnerships or investment contracts with state entities (following the cabinet’s approval).

Prime Minister Dr. Mostafa Madbouly revealed that Egypt will receive the second batch of financial dues for the Ras El Hekma project, within the next few weeks.

According to a company statement, JUFO has cut the prices of its dairy products by 18% and its juice products by 15%. The move came after the government agreed with manufacturers, suppliers, and retailers to cut commodity prices by 15-20% this week. 

EFIH’s BoD approved distributing a bonus share dividend of 1 share for every 4 shares originally held. This increases the company’s capital to EGP1.15 billion, up from EGP924 million.

MTIE reported 4Q23 results. Net attributable profit came in at EGP213 million (+68% YoY, -19% QoQ), this brings 2023 net attributable profit to EGP687 million (+101% YoY).MTIE is trading at 2024 P/E of 7.3x and EV/EBITDA of 6.0x.

HRHO plans to increase its staff in Saudi Arabia by 30% to 47 people.

Banque Misr intends to transfer real estate assets worth more than EGP4 billion to a subsidiary specialized in real estate asset management.

The FRA instructed mortgage financing to maintain records that include a database of promoters that assist the real estate companies in marketing, highlighting their identity and the nature of transactions they offer. 

Oil and gas drilling company Ades Holding will work to boost oil production at two brownfields in Egypt after landing a ten-year service agreement. 

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The government has begun paying back nearly 20% of the arrears it owes to international oil companies (IOCs) operating in the country, with a structured plan now in place to clear the remaining debt in stages over the coming period.

The Emirati company, Dana Gas, revealed that it received USD58 million in dues from Egypt during 2023. The company added they still have arrears of USD75 million.

Egypt targets a GDP growth rate of 4% in FY 2024/25, with a primary surplus of 3.5% and reducing the total deficit in the medium term to 6% of GDP. 

The Ministry of Finance targets a 25% growth in income tax in the FY2024-25, on an expected increase in the tax revenues on economic authorities and the tax on interest income from treasuries.

The General Authority for Investments and Freezones (GAFI) has awarded six golden licenses for projects worth a combined EGP5.6 bn.

US multinational conglomerate Honeywell in partnership with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will complete a feasibility study within the next few months for a proposed sustainable aviation fuel production facility in Egypt.

The Mineral Resources Authority intends to launch a new global tender for gold exploration in the Eastern Desert region, early 2025, as part of a new plan of offering 7 to 9 sites for investment in exploring gold annually.

The EU and the French Development Agency will provide a total of EUR61.5 mn in financing for the third phase of the Gabal El Asfar water treatment plant, the International Cooperation Ministry said.

CCAP plans to list its printing subsidiary, the National Printing Company, on the EGX in the second quarter of this year. 

Fertilizers prices increased by EGP500/ton after the latest increase in diesel prices. 

New leaders could be appointed at banks including: the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire (BdC), AAIB, Export development Bank, and Suez Canal Bank (CANA). 

Valu, HRHO’s arm plans a securitization issuance worth EGP800 million next month. The company had issued an issue earlier this week worth EGP888 million.

COMI’s OGM approved distributing dividends of EGP0.55/share from 2023 profits, implying a dividend yield of 0.65%. It also approved increasing the issued and paid-in capital by EGP236.6 mn to EGP30.6 bn.

SAUD’s OGM approved not distributing dividends to shareholders from 2023 profits.

According to local media, the Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) plans to launch a tracking system before the end of the year to eradicate the sale of counterfeit and imitation meds and crack down on illegal sales.

Market Overview 

A presidential decree establishing the Supreme Council of Taxes was issued, Minister of Finance announced, to empower the private sector, stimulate investment, and encourage investors to expand their productive and export activities.

The government agreed with manufacturers and merchants to start reducing commodity prices by about 15% and 20%, bringing the reduction to 30% after Eid al-Fitr.

Some USD 2.8 bn worth of goods have been cleared from the country’s ports thanks to the recent spate of foreign currency injections, Prime Minister said.

Net FDI inflows declined marginally to record USD2.1 billion in 4Q 2023, compared to USD2.2 billion 3Q 2023.

The head of the GAFI revealed that the authority is currently studying 4 applications filed to obtain the golden license for companies operating in various sectors, including a logistics company.

Remittances inflows are reportedly still far from reaching their peak, as Egyptian expats increasingly return to using official channels to transfer money back to Egypt following the float of the pound, deputy CEO of the UAE’s largest FX bureau and remittances company Mohammad Bitar said.

The New and Renewable Energy Authority discussed allocating EGP3.7 billion to establish renewable energy projects in the new fiscal year 2024/2025, within the Authority’s draft budget of EGP7.78 billion.

Egypt aims to increase the quantities of natural gas imported from Israel by about 26% to reach 1.450 billion cubic feet per day during 1H 2025, up from about 1.15 billion cubic feet per day now.


The Prime Minister directed companies and traders to reduce steel prices after the full release of goods and raw materials in ports.

Cement producers started to re-price their products after the recent surge in mazut price by EGP1,500/ton to reach EGP7,000/ton. It is worth highlighting that around 30% of cement factories depend on mazut as a cheap source of energy. The head of the Cement Division of the Building Materials Chamber estimates the increase in production cost of cement not to exceed EGP100/ton post the mazut price increase.

CIEB’s board approved a proposal to pay out a dividend of EGP1.1456 per share instead of EGP2.47. The decision is yet to receive the go-ahead from the general assembly.

NBE intends to exit 12 companies with expected proceeds of EGP4 billion. The bank will invest up to EGP5 billion during 2024 in new projects and expands some currently existing projects.

The United Bank has arranged about USD100 million for importers since the CBE directed banks at the beginning of this month to secure foreign currency to import 17 goods, if they are present in Egyptian ports.


CCAP's transportation subsidiary targets injecting USD200 million to establish, manage and operate two stations in Alexandria and Ain Sokhna.


RMDA’s BoD approved to increase its paid in capital by EGP1.12 million, bringing it to EGP387.23 million, to finance the second tranche of its ESOP program. 

Market Overview 
HRHO
SWDY
ORHD
SUGR
TMGH


prepared by: Mayada Amin -CETA, CFTe

Egypt has been listed on the agenda of the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund next Friday, March 29, expected to approve the program newly agreed by the IMF staff level and the Egyptian government.

The CBE, on behalf of the Finance Ministry, sold six-month and one-year EGP-denominated treasury bills worth EGP108.6 billion on Thursday at yields of 27.723% and 28.253%.

SCZone racked up USD2.8 billion worth of port and industrial zone investments in 9M FY2023-24, spread between 127 projects, according to a cabinet statement.

No price hikes for unsubsidized bread, says Supply Minister Ali El Moselhi. The minister dismissed claims that unsubsidized bread could soon increase 20% and 25% for fino bread, especially in light of a recent drop in flour prices.

The Prime Minister announced that the government is considering increasing the strategic reserve of basic commodities by about 20%.

Egyptian banks have completed financing all pending import requests at the ports for basic commodities.

EGAL released its preliminary adjusted budget figures for FY24/25 post the EGP devaluation, targeting net profit after tax of EGP10.3 billion up from previously estimated figure of EGP4.3 billion vs. EGP3.7 billion recorded in FY22/23 and an estimated figure of EGP4.8 billion in FY23/24.

TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) AGM approved the distribution of EGP0.22/share cash dividends over two installments, implying a DY of 0.4%.

HRHO’s arm ValU has closed an EGP888 million securitized bond issuance, backed by a receivables portfolio.

OFH (FV: EGP2.54, OW) reported FY23 results. Net profit of EGP20.5 million, compared to a FY22 loss of EGP133 million. OFH is currently trading at P/E24 of 28.0x and P/B24 of 0.7x. 

Banque du Caire’s net profit increased in 2023 by 112% y/y, recording EGP6.7 billion.

According to local media, governmental companies in Egypt raised the selling price of sugar to the commercial sector by 33%, bringing the price of a ton to EGP32k, due to the rise in production costs and the floatation of the EGP. The new prices came into effect last Saturday, with the aim of bringing the price of a kilogram of sugar to the final consumer to EGP35.

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 85.4 | 0.1%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 370 | -4.3%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 355 | -12.6%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,040 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 965 | -0.5%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 391 | 0.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,264 | 1.7%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,105 | 1.2%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 128 | -2.5%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,517 | -4.7%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market Overview 
DSCW
AMOC
EFIH



prepared by: Mayada Amin -CETA, CFTe

The Ministry of Petroleum announced on Friday an increase in fuel prices affecting various octanes and diesel.

Also, the Committee decided to move mazot prices for the brick and cement kiln industries and other sectors by EGP1,500 per ton starting Friday, while keeping prices unchanged for electricity and food sectors.

On higher fuel prices, public transport users will also see a price hike.

Egypt's revenues from the Sukari mine increased in 2023 to USD139 million, an increase of 134% YoY.

Minister of Finance said that the allocations for wages in the FY2024/25 budget will be increased to EGP573 billion to account for the latest package of increases that was effective in March, compared to the EGP470 billion in the current budget for FY2023/24.

The tonnage of the ships passing through Suez Canal decreased by 35% during the period 19 November 2023 to 19 March 2024, recording 377.9 million tons.

EBRD is working to unlock USD1 billion from IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility. 

Turkish firm Doğuş Construction and Trade has signed an MoU with the Transport Ministry’s Egyptian Group For Multipurpose Terminals to establish an industrial and logistics zone in Gargoub on the country’s northwest coast with over USD7 billion in estimated investment.

Two European companies have reportedly submitted investment proposals to the Oil Ministry to set up sodium cyanide facilities in Egypt worth a combined USD270 million. 

The UAE's Al Dahra International Development and Investment Company and Buildcom won the supply of 110,000 tons of Romanian and Bulgarian wheat to the Supply Commodities Authority in the exercise conducted by the authority last Wednesday, a source at the Ministry of Supply said. 

China State Construction Engineering Corporation, along with engineering consultancy Income Egypt discussed the establishment of a medical city off the Ain Sokhna Road, near the New Capital.

The European Investment Bank has started due diligence for an unspecified green hydrogen project, adding that green hydrogen will be among the main sectors in which the bank will target next year, especially in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

Investment management firm Act Financial is working to IPO on the EGX in 2Q24. 

HRHO is considering a partial offering of shares or a capital increase for its subsidiaries, including ValU. The company aims to offer up to 25% of ValU's shares on the Egyptian Stock Exchange through an initial public offering within 12 months.

Al Baraka Capital, SAUD’s subsidiary, aims to start providing SMEs shariaa-compliant financing by 2H24.

SWDY's (FV: EGP34.96, EW) Board of Directors approved amending the revolving facility agreement entered between the Company, Elsewedy Electric for Transmission and Distribution Company S.A.E. and other subsidiaries as additional borrowers, and African Export-Import Bank dated 22 December 2022 to increase the facility's amount to a maximum of USD300 million.

Market Overview 
SUGR
ELKA
MASR
FWRY
EFIH
HRHO
ALCN
CCAP


prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The Federal Reserve held steady on interest rates at the conclusion of its March meeting, and it’s sticking with its forecast for three interest rate cuts. 

The government has set up a ministerial committee that will select a consultant to manage, evaluate and market Sharm El Sheikh’s Ras Gamila development project. The committee is expected to make its choice next week.

The government’s fuel pricing committee is set to meet within a week to look into raising fuel prices, with high expectations of an increase in fuel prices.

Government sources said that the anticipated increases in Brent prices by summer 2024 requires increasing the estimate for the crude price in FY2024-25 budget to USD87 pb, up from the USD80 pb in the previous budget that was amended later to USD85.

The CBE decided to cancel the scheduled meeting of the MPC on Thursday, March 28th 2024, in light of the sufficiency of the special meeting of the Committee on Wednesday, March 6th 2024.

French glass and building materials manufacturer Saint-Gobain has laid the foundation stone for its third glass factory in Egypt with investments amounting EUR 175 mn in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources is preparing a shipment of liquefied natural gas for export to Europe before the end of this March.

“PSH” International Company, which owns the “Bosch” home appliances brand, is working to complete its factory in the 10th of Ramadan City in Egypt during Q4 2024, at an investment cost of EUR50 million euros.

ORAS reported its consolidated 4Q23 results, with net income attributable to shareholders decreased 21.5% YoY to USD 43.8 million in 4Q23, due to lower income from BESIX, and increased 39.7% YoY to USD 158.6 million in FY23. ORAS is currently trading at FY24e P/E of 10.6x and EV/EBITDA of 2.9x. 

HRHO (FV: EGP 25.20, OW) 4Q23 net profit after tax and minority interest recorded EGP 814 million (+106% q/q, +1% y/y) bringing FY23 net attributable profit to EGP 2,498 million (+39% y/y). We update our FV to EGP25.20/share on improved business performance and revaluation of USD cash position post EGP devaluation. HRHO is currently trading at P/E24 7.7x and P/B24 1.0x.

HRHO’s ValU launched a new prepaid card in cooperation with Visa. On another note, the company expects to launch its services in Jordan sometime between late 2024 and early 2025 and invest some USD 10 mn into its Jordan expansion.

The banking sector wrapped up 2023 with a slight decline in the capital adequacy ratio (CAR), with the metric hitting 18.6%, compared to the 19% recorded a year earlier.

MOPCO will distribute EGP2/share on 7 April 2024 for shareholders of record on 2 April 2024, implying a dividend yield of 3.9%.

According to local media, MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) 1) is considering obtaining bank facilities of over EGP5.0 billion in 2024, 2) aims to spend EGP10.0 billion on construction in 2024, compared to EGP7.0 billion in 2023, and 3) increased selling prices by 10.0% since the beginning of 2024.

Three feed factories decided to reduce their prices since the beginning of this week and recorded reduction rates from EGP600 to EGP1000.

Market Overview 



prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The government is allocating EGP596 billion for subsidies and social support in the next fiscal year. And expects to record a budget deficit of 6% and a primary surplus of 3.5%. 

The Saudi government approved a MoU between its Finance Ministry and Egyptian counterparts to establish a high-level financial dialogue.

According to the Minister of Finance, foreign cash inflows are expected to exceed USD20 billion, after the agreement with the IMF.

According to the Minister of International Cooperation, Egypt is expected to receive USD1 billion from the world bank by June 2024.

The IFC’s financing portfolio in Egypt is expected to reach USD1 billion during the current fiscal year, from USD850 million a year before.

Ras Al Hekma city will include a free zone to facilitate the establishment of investment and financial projects.

Exports from Israel’s Leviathan gas field to Egypt were up 28% last year, jumping to 6.3 bcm from 4.9 bcm in 2022.

The Cabinet approved a draft decision regulating the temporary exit of equipment and machinery from the country’s freezones. 

The Parliament yesterday gave final approval to four USAID grant agreements targeting the private sector, education, healthcare, and sanitation. 

The Parliament greenlit three draft laws licensing the Oil Ministry to provide firms with oil exploration contracts. The three contracts will see the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation work with a number of local oil companies and Croatian national producer INA to explore for oil in the West Delta, Western Desert, and in the Gulf of Suez.

The government’s 6-year aviation strategy targets raising tourism revenues by 20% annually to USD45 billion by 2030, up from the USD13.6 billion recorded by the central bank in the previous fiscal year. 

RMDA released 4Q23 full financials:

DSCW (FV: EGP1.11, EW) released FY23 Financials:

The Customs Authority released 70% of steel products and raw materials stuck at different ports which may accelerate price reductions in the local market during the coming period.                                         

According to local media, the Holding Company for Construction and Development intends to keep its 14.94% stake in MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW).

 SUGR announced the start of receiving sugar beet crops from farmers for 2024 season. It targets to receive around 2.2 million tons of sugar beets over the course of the season, to produce approximately 300 thousand tons of local white sugar in addition to refining 25 thousand tons of raw sugar.

Market Overview 
ABUK
SUGR
HELI
EFIH



Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Will EGP flotation trigger drug price revisions?

Thoughts on potential impact on producer sales and FVs

According to local media, Egyptian drug producers intend to officially request for a price increase of at least 50% during their upcoming meeting with EDA to absorb the rise in production costs.

Accordingly, we expect a gradual increase in drug prices to be implemented soon, reflecting a positive impact on pharma market growth as well as producers’ revenues and gross profit throughout 2024. This impact will not reflect immediately, but will be gradual as repricing is approved on several rounds.

Two scenarios for price increases 

•   1st scenario: a minimum of 30% increase in pharma market sales, mirroring pharma market growth in 2023 which was driven solely by increase in ASP

•   2nd scenario: a rise of 50% in pharma market sales, which is the percentage demanded by pharmaceutical companies

-ISPH to benefit the most out of any price increase, whether 30% or 50%, since it is an FX-neutral stock with no direct costs in foreign currency 

- The upside potential in RMDA and PHAR is not meaningful unless the price increase is 50% or more

The World Bank Group (WBG) announced over USD6 billion in support to Egypt over the next three years. The WBG will provide the funding through a comprehensive program that includes USD3 billion for governmental programs and an additional USD3 billion for the private sector.

Egypt’s credit outlook was lifted to positive from stable by S&P Global Ratings, which affirmed the rating at B-.

The EU will disburse some EUR1 billion worth of concessional loans in the short term, Egypt’s ambassador to the EU. The remaining EUR4 billion will be extended in tranches starting the end of this year, he added. The soft loans will come with interest rates of no more than 3% and will be paid over no less than 20 years.

Customers have sold over EGP3 billion worth of foreign currency at the National Bank of Egypt’s foreign currency exchange bureau.

Minister of Finance said that the allocations for health and education are increased by 20% in the FY2024-25 budget despite planned rationalization and fiscal consolidation, adding that subsidies for bread will increase to EGP120 billion up from EGP83 billion in the current budget, while fuel subsidies are estimated at EGP147 billion up from EGP119.4 billion.

The Trade Ministry has extended its ban on the export of sugar for three months. The ban, which runs through June 2024, exempts surplus quantities beyond local market needs and this marks its second extension since December. The government is working with the Central Bank of Egypt to secure the FX needed to import 1 million tons of sugar in order to fill the needs of the domestic market. 

According to local media, the Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) will hold a meeting next Tuesday to discuss the pharma pricing scheme following the central bank’s decision to float the EGP.

The Ministry of Transportation finalized the allocation of 9.5 million feddans in Suhag and Aswan to investors by the end of last January mainly for launching wind and solar power stations. Among the investors are ORAS, Aqua Power, Nowais, and Masdar.

MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) launched Theqa, a property warranty which is designed to substitute maintenance deposits by requiring the customer to pay for maintenance and operation services without any additional increases or differences for up to 20 years upon receipt of the unit. On a separate note, according to local media, MASR is working to acquire a 400 feddan land plot on the North Coast and aims to grow its total land bank to 20,000 feddans.

The Indian Rana Group wants to establish a green hydrogen project in Egypt with USD

Market Overview 




Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

EU leaders have sealed a EUR7.4 billion deal with Egypt to help boost the economy, in an attempt to bring stability to the region and avert another migration crisis in Europe.

Egypt has requested from the IMF USD5 billion as a first tranche it will receive next April.

After the float of the EGP, the government has made easing the backlog one of its top priorities, with some USD3 billion worth of goods released in the span of a few days, the Prime Minister said.

JP Morgan Bank will make available, within days, an amount of EUR350 million for the Monorail line project in the New Administrative Capital and 6th of October City, to accelerate the operations and disburse dues and payments to the implementing companies.

The government will soon launch a tender to select an international consulting firm to develop a plan and prepare the necessary studies for an electricity linkup with Greece that will enable exports of Egyptian renewable energy into Europe.

Five investors of Arab and foreign nationalities are studying investment opportunities in the Egyptian healthcare sector during the coming period.

The New October City Development Authority received 60 requests from investment companies and real estate developers to obtain investment plots of land according to the payment mechanism in US dollars transferred from abroad.

Egypt has received humanitarian aid worth USD13.3 million since the beginning of 2024, according to the Financial Tracking Service website issued by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The Egyptian-Australian Business Council seeks to localize 30 Australian companies in Egypt during the current year, with investments amounting to USD600 million.

CLHO (FV: EGP5.30, OW) reported 4Q23 results.Net attributable profit stood at EGP107 million in 4Q23 (+36.0% YoY, -19.0% QoQ), bringing 2023’s net attributable profit to EGP418 million (+28.4% YoY). CLHO is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 17.0x and EV/EBITDA of 8.2x.

The government reportedly wants to keep no more than 20% of HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW), ZMID, and ELSH by the start of 2025.

KIMA released FY24/25 budget with a net profit of EGP821 million and total revenue of EGP6.7 billion, including EGP5.1 billion of export revenue. 

KIMA is holding a general assembly on 20 March 2024 to approve increasing the company’s paid-in capital by EGP4 billion to EGP9.9 billion through a rights issue at EGP5 per share as par value in addition to EGP0.05 per share as issuance expenses. 

The Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. (EGAS) plans investing USD2.6 billion during FY24/25 to develop 20 wells.

EGAS is setting up a new venture in the KSA, dubbed Modern Gas Saudi Arabia, which will be 80% held by units of the state-owned natural gas player.

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 85.3 | 4.0%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 387 | 2.0%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 406 | 0.0%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,040 | -1.9%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970 | 0.0%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 388 | 2.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,225 | 1.4%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,080 | 0.0%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 131 | -2.5%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,640 | 0.0%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The two exchange companies affiliated with the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr attracted more than EGP2 billion in proceeds from concessions on foreign and Arab currencies in favor of the EGP, since the CBE's decision to liberalize the FX rate on 6 March.

The Prime Minister said that the demand for the USD, as confirmed by the Governor of the CBE, has begun to decline in light of the wide availability made by the bank and the speedy release of goods from customs in recent days.

A delegation led by European Commission President will be in town today. A package worth EUR5 billion through 2027 is expected, with as much as EUR1 billion of that fast-tracked for disbursal 1-2 weeks down the road a senior EU diplomat told press.

Foreign investors have poured over USD3 billion into Egypt since the CBE floated the EGP, a government source said. The number is expected to jump to USD30 billion before the end of the year, they added.

The CBE raised EGP217.9 billion-worth of one-year t-bills and EGP46.8 billion-worth of six-month t-bills on Thursday. The bank’s one-year bills received offers over 13x its original ask and its six-month bills 4x its ask. The average yield for the one-year bills dropped down to 30.14% from 32.30% the week before, while the six-month bills’ average yield dropped to 29.91% from 31.84% the week before.

Egypt's blockbuster cash infusions, currency devaluation, and interest rate hike are not quite enough for Fitch to adjust the country's credit rating, the agency's head of Middle East and Africa sovereigns said.

US energy company Chevron plans to start drilling the first extraction well in its Nargis 2 gas field in the eastern Mediterranean by 4Q24, with initial investments amounting to USD60 million. 

Chemicals and fertilizers exports council targets increasing the sector's exports by 30% to USD9 billion in 2024 from USD7 billion in 2023.

Raya Information Technology, a subsidiary of RAYA, is in advanced stages to acquire a local BPO outsourcing player, according to local press.

The total insurance premiums increased by 30.4% to reach EGP74.1 billion, compared to EGP56.8 billion during 2022.

Market Overview 
COMI
ADIB
HRHO
BTFH
SWDY



prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Egypt's Banking Sector Poised for Another Leap Year Amid Surging Interest Rates

We believe that Egyptian banks are well positioned to benefit from the current macroeconomic conditions, and we expect another year of exceptional profits with impact starting to appear in 1Q24.

Key Factors Driving Strong Growth: 

The EU will provide Egypt with a EUR7.4 billion (over USD8 billion) package varying between grants and loans. 

Egypt has recently released a portion of accumulated goods across various ports totaling USD3 billion, Prime Minister stated during a cabinet meeting.

Prime Minister said that there are indicators of improved liquidity as the confidence of citizens, tourism companies, and Egyptians abroad in the EGP improved, increasing the transfers and concessions on the USD.

A member of the General Importers Department of the General Federation of Chambers of Commerce, said that banks have accelerated the pace of release for priority sectors, such as food, medicines, and production supplies, since the beginning of this week.

Egypt has collected USD685 million from the second phase of the initiative to facilitate the import of cars for Egyptians abroad since its launch at the end of October.

The government raised the price of wheat supply during the coming season by 25% compared to the indicative price it set at the beginning of the season to reach EGP2,000 for ardeb.

South Valley Petroleum Holding Company added new oil reserves to its recoverable production of about 46 million barrels since July 2023 until March 2024.

SWDY reported 4Q23 and FY23 consolidated results recording attributable earnings of EGP2.0 billion (-12% YoY, -18% QoQ), leading to FY23 earnings of EGP10.1 billion (+87% YoY). At the current market price, SWDY is trading at FY24e P/E of 10.8x and EV/EBITDA of 4.6x.

10 banks raised the limit for international purchases through credit cards after the CBE directed banks to lift restrictions on the use of cards. 

EFG Finance, HRHO’s subsidiary, has obtained a license from the FRA to launch its new subsidiary, which will specialize in providing an innovative package of financial solutions and services specifically designed to meet the financial needs of SMEs in Egypt. The new company is expected to begin operations over 2Q24.

Several companies including CNFN, MNT-Halan’s Tasaheel, GB Capital, and Rawasi Urban Development are in talks with the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to move ahead with sukuk issuances worth a combined EGP10 bn. 

CNFN’s Contact Pay customers will now be able to make use of OPay’s channels, which includes over 90k points of sale and payment kiosks.

Adnoc and BP’s USD2 billion bid for Israeli natural gas giant NewMed Energy has been put on ice, amid uncertainty created in the external environment. 

The Oil Ministry has devised a plan that will see state-owned firm Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) producing the country’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

According to local media, the Pharmaceuticals Division of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce intends to ask the Egyptian Drug Authority that the approved increase in drug prices that the Authority will agree on should be around 50% at least, to absorb a large portion of the expected increase in production costs after the floatation. 

Market Overview 



Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Egypt expects to receive between USD5-6bn [EUR4.6-EUR6.5bn] in funding from the EU under a major 'cash for migrant control' pact which is set to be finalised this weekend.

The IMF intends to provide about USD1.5 billion to Egypt within weeks, within the framework of the loan program that was agreed to increase last Wednesday from USD3 billion to USD8 billion.

Customers have sold over EGP1.05 bn worth of foreign currency at the National Bank of Egypt’s foreign exchange bureau Al Ahly Exchange, Banque Misr’s Misr Exchange, and Banque du Caire’s Cairo Exchange following the central bank’s decision to float the currency last Wednesday.

The UAE’s largest FX bureau and remittances company, Al Anasri Exchange, has seen a “remarkable increase” in transfers sent from the UAE to Egypt as Egyptian expats go back to using official money transfer channels post float.

The government will use 50% of the money generated through its privatization program as well as the country’s primary surplus to service and reduce outstanding debt in the upcoming fiscal year, according to Finance Minister.

The Ministry of Finance intends to set a ceiling on government guarantees as part of its plan to limit external debt, with a debt ceiling that cannot be breached without a Presidential greenlight.

Finance Minister said that the budget for FY2024-25 includes revenues of EGP2.5 trillion, while expenditures will reach about EGP3.8 trillion.

There will be no tax increases for investors in the next fiscal year. Additionally, mandatory solidarity contributions to the universal health ins. system will be deducted from taxpayers’ tax base.

Four international companies are competing to win gold exploration concessions in two areas near the Sukari mine in southern Egypt, during the first global bidding offered by the Shalatin Mineral Resources Company, including “Lotus” Canadian Gold and Russian "Infinity".

Moody’s has upgraded the long-term deposit ratings outlook of five local banks to positive from negative. The five banks are: National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, and Banque du Caire, COMI , and Bank of Alexandria. 

BTFH turned profitable in 2023 after years of losses, recording EGP369 mn in net income compared to a net loss of EGP269 mn in 2022.

BTFH is seeking to complete the dual listing process for its shares on the Nasdaq Dubai stock exchange during the coming period. The sources expected that the registration process would be completed by the end of this year or first quarter of 2025.

The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) is considering investing over EGP2.5 bn to acquire at least 20% of an unnamed major real estate firm.                   

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and ADIB are the latest in line to revise their monthly credit card FX spending limits.

Aman Holding for Financial Services, a subsidiary of RAYA, is planning an EGP3-4 billion Sukuk issuance during 2024.

FWRY intends to settle on the company’s most appropriate partner for the digital bank and conclude the studies within a couple of months.  

SWDY's subsidiary, Elsewedy Electric for Electrical Products, wants to establish a USD50 million power transformers factory in Saudi Arabia in partnership with an unnamed Saudi partner.

OPEC still sees strong demand for oil this year and next, saying in its latest monthly report that it still sees demand rising 2.25 million barrels per day this year and 1.85 million bpd in 2025. It sees some room for global growth to pick up and, if it does, drive even more demand.

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today*

The OECD sees that phasing out the country’s broad-based energy subsidies to, eventually, reflect global energy prices is a must, adding that fully phasing out subsidies both for electricity and natural gas would help address inefficiencies in electricity use in manufacturing, transport, and logistics, which account for nearly 40% of domestic power demand.

Sources at the Ministry of Electricity estimated the arrears of foreign companies operating in the sector at more than USD500 million at 2023-end.

Egypt is looking to be re-listed in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Government Bond Index, following its recent economic reform steps, according to the Minister of Finance.

Minister of Trade and Industry, revealed that Egyptian merchandise exports recorded c.USD6.12 billion during the months of January and February 2024, compared to USD5.7 billion during the same period in 2023. On the other hand, trade deficit during December 2023 recorded USD3.03 billion, compared to USD2.57 billion during the same month of the previous year.

The volume of transactions in the USD interbank market between Egyptian banks amounted to USD2.569 billion during the first 3 days of the flotation decision.

The Holding Company for Construction intends to offer majority shares from Al-Nasr Housing and Development, Al-Maadi Development and Construction, and Misr Reinforced Cement Works companies within the framework of implementing the government offerings plan.

COMI has raised the monthly maximum cap on FX transactions abroad to the equivalent of EGP75k-200k depending on account type, up from EGP25k-175k. Egyptians abroad can now also withdraw the equivalent of EGP3.5k-10.5k from ATMs abroad every month, up from EGP2k-6.5k. COMIalso increased the monthly ceiling on FX transactions at home to EGP50k for all account types, up from EGP3.5k-12.5k.

DOMT (FV: EGP13.42, EW) reported 4Q23 results:

•                  Attributable net profit for the quarter recorded EGP100 million (-2.7% YoY, -2% QoQ), which is the weakest throughout the whole of FY23. FY23 attributable net profit recorded EGP454 million (+71% YoY).

•                  DOMT BoD proposed cash dividends distribution of EGP0.50/share, implying a payout ratio of 31% and a dividends yield of 3%.

•                  DOMT is currently trading at a FY24 P/E of 7.5x.

Norwegian renewables developer Scatec’s planned solar plant to power EGAL's Nagaa Hammadi industrial complex will be set up with investments of USD1.1 billion. The solar plant will produce 2-GW worth of green power. The developer will finance the project, conduct the required studies, develop the plant, and install the needed equipment.

Chems

The Ministry of Petroleum targets injecting investments worth USD535 million in Zohr field during the coming fiscal year. Meanwhile, Petrobel targets investing USD614 million during FY24/25 to increase crude oil and gas production rates to 179k BOE per day.

Market Overview 

Annual urban inflation skyrocketed to record 35.7% YoY in February, up from 29.8% YoY in January. Monthly urban inflation surged to 11.4% MoM, the highest on our records.

Annual core inflation — which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel — rose to 35.1% in February, up from 29% in January. Meanwhile, monthly core inflation surged to 6.1% from 2.2% in January.

The World Bank is expected to extend around USD3 bn in financing to Egypt, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said.

Local banks have bought and sold over USD2.5 bn on the interbank market since the EGP float Wednesday morning.

Minister of Finance said that it was agreed with the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) that the public treasury would receive no less than 50% of any investment NUCA gets.

Minister of Finance stated that the total budget deficit rose to 6.7% of GDP during 8MFY23-24, up from 5% in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Egyptian customs released basic goods worth USD780 million during the past Thursday and Friday, according to Customs Authority's head.

The CBE raised EGP94.4 bn in a nine-month t-bill auction — raising almost 4x its target EGP25 bn. It also sold EGP25 bn worth of three-month t-bills.

Minister of Finance also said that the government is now targeting a primary surplus of no less than 3.5% for the fiscal year 2024-2025.

Minister of Finance said that the government’s allocation to fuel subsidies will remain unchanged until the end of the fiscal year even if fuel prices change. 

The Finance Ministry is in talks with the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce to scrap the 11% subsidized loans for industry and agriculture introduced last year in light of the interest rate hikes introduced last week.

The Finance Ministry will allocate no more than EGP280 bn to public investment in next fiscal year’s budget.

ORHD (FV: EGP26.26, OW) reported 4Q23 results. Net profit in 4Q23 increased 255.0% y/y and 10.5% q/q to EGP1.0 billion, bringing FY23 net profit up 69.2% y/y to EGP2.8 billion. We raise our ORHD FV from EGP20.38/share to EGP26.26/share as a result of raising the EGP/USD FX rate embedded in our valuation of the residual land in El Gouna.

ARAB reported FY23 net profit of EGP99.8 million, compared to FY22 net loss of EGP18.2 million. 

According to local press, QIA has resumed negotiations to acquire ETEL’s stake in Vodafone Egypt. QIA and ETEL are still in negotiations on the size of the stake and are expected to reach an agreement within few weeks. 

The government is studying selling another 10% of its stake in ETEL this year or beginning of 2025, according to local press. 

SKPC’s general assembly approved the distribution of cash dividends of EGP1.25/share, implying a dividend yield of 3.7%. The general assembly also approved a stock dividend at a ratio of 1:5.

MOPCO’s general assembly approved the distribution of cash dividends of EGP2/share, implying a dividend yield of 3.2%.

CICH’s 2023 net income expanded 31% y/y to record EGP1.04 bn.

FAIT OGM approved distributing cash dividends of USD0.06/share, equivalent to EGP1.85/share. This implies a payout ratio of 27.8% and a dividend yield of 4.9%.

SODIC’s securitization subsidiary, SODIC for Securitization, is set to offload all its shares to Beltone Holding after its general assembly approved the decision on Thursday. 

HRHO’s micro-finance arm Tanmeyah and Egypt’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise Development Agency (MSMEDA) will lend out a combined EGP200 mn to local microenterprises under an agreement inked between the two sides.

RAYA reported 2023 results. Net income stood at EGP441 million in 2023 (+27% YoY). Revenues grew by 53% YoY to record EGP31.3 billion.

Weekly Commodities Update

Market Overview 
COMI
BTFH
ABUK
HRHO
FWRY 
EKHO
PHAR



prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Moody’s Ratings has upgraded Egypt’s credit outlook from negative to positive following the country’s successful acquisition of fresh foreign funds.

The Ministry of Finance intends to raise its expectations for interest rates on Treasuries to reach 28.5% in the budget for FY2024-25.

The CBE raised EGP87.8 bn in a one-year t-bill auction on Thursday — receiving offers for almost 3x the amount sold. The bills were sold at an interest rate of 32.3%. International investors bought up USD825 mn (c. EGP 40.7 bn) of the EGP 102 bn-worth of bills sold.

Banks have bought and sold some USD1.9 bn on the interbank market since Wednesday morning, when the central bank unveiled its decision to move to a flexible EGP exchange.

NBE, Banque Misr, CIB, and the Arab African International Bank (AAIB) were among the banks who have revised their monthly credit card FX spending limits after the CBE instructed banks to gradually lift restrictions on credit card FX transactions.

The government signaled that it has the will and the ability to clear the backlog of goods in ports stemming from the FX shortage. 

The IMF said that the CBE is committed to use a large portion of the flows from Ras El Hekma deal to rebuild foreign exchange reserves.

GASC canceled a wheat tender it held last Thursday on high prices, with bid prices rising to between USD226 and USD235 per ton.

We raise our FV for EFICto EGP89.00/share with an overweight recommendation. EFIC’s BoD proposed the distribution of EGP7/share in cash dividends from 2023 profits, implying a payout ratio of 73%. EFIC is currently trading at a 2024f PE of 4.7x and EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.

MBSC reported 4Q23 and FY23 consolidated financial results, recording a net profit of EGP125.4 million in 4Q23 (-48% YoY, -10% QoQ), bringing FY23 bottom-line to EGP369.1 million reversing last year losses of EGP145.9 million. MBSC is trading at FY24e P/E of 10.8x and EV/EBITDA of 7.8x.

According to local media, The Holding Company for Construction and Development intends to offer an additional stake of HELI on the Egyptian Stock Exchange or to a strategic investor, after completing the company’s development process. The Company received 4 offers for New Heliopolis development.

Al Ahly CIRA will commence operations at the Saxony Egypt University of Applied Sciences and Technology (SEU) in September after it received the greenlight from the cabinet. 

Market Overview 
COMI
ADIB
HRHO
SWDY
FWRY 
EFIH
ORAS

Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE decided on Wednesday morning to allow market forces to determine the value of the EGP, while simultaneously raising interest rates by 6%. That is, the overnight deposit rate, the overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation were raised by 600bps to 27.25%, 28.25%, and 27.75%, respectively.

The EGP formal rate traded at c.49.5 per USD after breaching the EGP50 border.

NBE and Banque Misr announced on Wednesday the launch and the amendments of high yield certificates of deposits (CDs).

IMF staff and the Egyptian authorities have reached staff level agreement on a set of comprehensive policies and reforms needed to complete the first and second reviews under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement. Staff also considered the authorities’ request for an augmentation of IMF support to Egypt from about USD3 billion to about USD8 billion. Prime Minister said that the agreement will be followed by more funding — in soft loans — from other international partners like the World Bank and EU, that could boost the total funds to USD20 billion.

Cabinet agreed with the IMF to implement structural reforms that would also include a new framework to slow down infrastructure spending, including projects that have so far operated outside regular budget oversight.

The CBE has instructed local banks to lift the spending limit on foreign currency credit cards.

The Cabinet approved launching phase 7 of the initiative to refund the arrears of export subsidies program, owed to exporting companies, up to EGP8 billion.

A government source revealed that the arrears owed to foreign oil companies declined in the recent period from USD6.5 billion to USD6.25 billion. 

The Central Bank will sell EGP110 billion worth of t-bills between today and Sunday.

Cabinet has given Nilus Hotel and Commercial Services and Nilus Residential Services approval to build two commercial and residential towers on the National Democratic Party’s (NDP) former headquarters, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette. The two projects, reportedly worth a combined USD5 billion, are due for completion in 2Q28.

FAIT (FV: EGP39.00, EW) released positive 4Q23 consolidated net profit of EGP650 million (-71% y/y, -25% q/q),  bringing FY23 bottom line to EGP4.5 billion (-7% y/y). The stock is currently trading at P/B24 of 0.8x and P/E24 of 7.0x, with ROAE of 12%.

TAQA Volt, a subsidiary of TAQA Power, the electricity operating arm of TAQA Arabia group, has signed a partnership with Wadi Degla Developments to address the surging demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and sustainable living solutions.

The Ministry of Petroleum is increasing fuel injection in the local market by 8-10% during the month of Ramadan. 

Market Overview 

*Key news articles for today*

CAPMAS is expected to release February inflation data on Sunday, 10th March. We expect annual urban inflation to drop appreciably to c.24% YoY, capitalizing on a particularly accommodative base effect.

A staff delegation from the IMF is reportedly in town. Sources said that a staff-level agreement with Egyptian officials will be signed as early as today.

Net Foreign Liabilities' position of the banking system deteriorated in January to c.USD29.0 bn from USD27.2 bn in December, based on CBE data.

Net International Reserves (NIR) inched up marginally in February to USD35.3 billion up from USD35.2 billion in January.

Egypt's fuel imports in 2M2024 stood at c.USD2 billion, a government official said, adding that petroleum products constituted between 60 and 70% of the import bill with a value of USD1.3 billion, while the rest of the bill went to other types of fuel.

OLFI (FV: EGP15.0, OW) reported 4Q23 results: 

4Q23 attributable net profit recorded EGP163 mn (+20% YoY, +70% QoQ). The rise came despite booking enormous FX losses and translation differences of EGP689 mn during the quarter. OLFI is currently trading at a FY24 P/E of 7.7x.

CNFN (FV:EGP8.45, OW) released positive 4Q23 results:

•                  Bottom-line recorded EGP261 million (+49% y/y, +111% q/q), bringing FY23 bottom-line to EGP692 million (+36% y/y). 

•                  We downgraded our FV to EGP8.45/share from EGP11.00/share and maintained our Overweight recommendation on an, reflecting the expected risks of higher interest rates, higher provisioning, and unstable macro-conditions. 

•                  CNFN is currently trading at P/B24 of 1.4x and P/E24 of 7.4x.

OFH BoD have decided to appoint Prime Capital as an independent financial advisor (IFA) to determine OFH and BINV fair values and communicate them to the shareholders 5 working days before the MTO expires.

According to local media, TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) launched its Banan project in Riyadh.

TAQA targets acquiring natural gas filling stations operator in Mozambique before the end of 1H24. The company is allocating USD200-250k for expansions in Mozambique. 

The government has awarded 11 concessions to five international energy players to explore for natural gas in the western Mediterranean region. The companies are BP, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Chevron, and Shell, while Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala will partake via an indirect agreement with one of the primary companies. Exploration is scheduled to start between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. This is expected to increase Egypt’s natural gas production capacity by 25% after one year from starting exploration.

Shelf Drilling was awarded a USD51 million, two-year contract extension for an oil rig in the Gulf of Suez with Egypt’s Gemsa Petroleum, according to a statement from Shelf.

Market Overview 

President El-Sisi directed the government to expedite the immediate release of goods at the ports, a statement by the Cabinet said.

An unnamed Emirati company has submitted a bid for a 40% stake in state-owned Misr Life Ins., a government official reportedly said.

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) will fully fund the plan to expand the Suez Canal from its Finance Ministry-approved investment budget to better support two-way traffic, SCA boss said, adding that the expansion will fully be funded in EGP and that will not put additional pressures on the state budget.

Prices of food commodities are expected to fall 20-25% within six weeks as the EGP strengthens against the USD on the back of the FX injection the country has received from the Ras El Hekma sale, Supply Minister was quoted.

Sources at the Customs Authority revealed that the value of goods at ports amounts to USD6.2 billion, including petroleum and non-petroleum goods.

Egypt's PMI dropped from 48.1 in January to 47.1 in February, the lowest for 11 months, due to a fall in new orders and higher price pressures and supply side challenges.

Banks reportedly suspended granting new financing within the 11% low-interest industry initiative supported by the Ministry of Finance, based on 'verbal instructions' from the CBE due to the high cost on the budget.

FWRY reported positive 4Q23 results:
•Net profit came in at EGP229 million (+97.3% YoY, +12.4% QoQ), bringing bottom line in 2023 to EGP715 million (+198% YoY). In 2023, bottom line performance was supported by:
oStrong revenue growth (+43.6% YoY),
oMargin expansion (GPM: +3.3pps, EBITDA: +9.6pps),
oHigher interest income (+120% YoY).
•FWRY is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 26.0x.

FWRY has inked a strategic partnership with local e-payments app PayMe to enable Egyptian expats to conduct financial transactions and pay bills, according to local press.

FAIT released strong 4Q23 consolidated financial indicators where the bottom-line recorded EGP3.0 billion (+36% y/y, +252% q/q), bringing the FY23 bottom-line to EGP6.9 billion (+43% y/y). The strong performance took place on the back of strong top-line as it recorded EGP2.7 billion (+153% y/y, +100% q/q).

SAUD is gearing up to launch a non-bank financial services arm in 4Q24, where it will own an 85% share.

MCQE's board of directors proposed distributing a cash dividend of EGP0.5/share for FY23, implying a payout ratio of 50.6% and a DY of 2.0%.

The Public Enterprise Ministry has reviewed a proposal by a consortium of Italy’s Danieli and Egypt’s Industrial Steel Products Company and the Arab Organization for Industrialization to establish a steel billet complex. The project aims to capitalize on the large repositories of iron ore in Aswan and the Bahariya Oasis.

KIMA sold three land plots in Aswan through a public auction at a total value of EGP35 million. 

Market Overview 

Budget deficit increased to 5.9% of GDP, recording EGP789.8 billion during 7M23/24, from 4.4% in 7M22/23.

Suez Canal revenues declined by 50.7% during the first two months of 2024.

The government has conducted preliminary studies on a project to duplicate the remainder of the Suez Canal to better support two-way traffic.

Yields on EGP-denominated one-year bills hit a record high 30.061% during the Central Bank’s latest auction held on Thursday.

ETEL (FV: EGP51.00, OW) released 4Q23 results. Net profit came in at EGP2.31 billion in 4Q23 (-23.2% YoY, -5.8% QoQ). During 2023, net profit came in at EGP11.46 billion (+24.9% YoY).  

EFID (FV: EGP40.30, OW) released 4Q23 results. Net profit recorded EGP351 million (+3.4% YoY, -24.5% QoQ). FY23 net profit recorded EGP1,632 million (+59.1% YoY).

POUL (FV: EGP12.76, OW) released 4Q23 results. 4Q23 net profit reached EGP31.5 million (-58.9% YoY, -91.3% QoQ). FY23 net profit recorded EGP1,147 million (+287.8% YoY).

HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) received an offer from MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) to co-develop three land plots amounting to a total of 580 feddans in New Heliopolis. 

TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW), through its hospitality arm, Icon, has completed all procedures to acquire a 51% stake with management rights in Legacy Hospitality. 

EMFD reported positive 4Q23 results. Net profit in 4Q23 increased 9.6% y/y and 21.7% q/q to EGP1.8 billion, bringing FY23 net profit up 3.8% y/y to EGP6.8 billion.

AMIC released its figures for January 2024 where auto sales in January fell to their lowest level since April 2023, noting a 40% m-o-m drop to 6.3k units. 

EGAL released its preliminary budget figures for FY24/25, targeting net profit after tax of EGP4.3 billion vs. EGP3.7 billion recorded in FY22/23. The budget also includes proposed investments worth EGP1.6 billion for the year. 

MCQE reported 4Q23 and FY23 consolidated financial results, recording an attributable net profit of EGP80.7 million in 4Q23, reversing previous quarter net loss of EGP29.7 million, and more than double comparative quarter net profit of EGP34.0 million mainly on healthy operating margins. This brings FY23 bottom-line to EGP94.8 million (-2% YoY).

LCSW released solid 4Q23 financial results. Attributable net profit recorded EGP110.8 million in 4Q23 (+194% YoY, +40.9% QoQ).

ECAP released 4Q23 financials. Net profit of EGP31.4 million in 4Q23 (-6.3% YoY, -55.7% QoQ). In 2023, net profit recorded EGP219.5 million (+28.3% YoY).

EFIC released 4Q23 consolidated results. Net profit increased by 42% YoY (+131% QoQ) to EGP184.7 million in 4Q23. Net income declined by 5% YoY to EGP699.9 million in 2023 mainly due to higher interest expense.

OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia yesterday agreed to extend voluntary oil supply cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

ISPHreleased 4Q23 financial results. Net profit dropped by 26.9% YoY and 5.7% QoQ to record EGP39.6 million in 4Q23. Bottom line increased by 23.6% YoY to record EGP213 million in 2023. ISPH is trading at 2024f P/E of 9.8x and EV/EBITDA of 4.8x.

ADIB has withdrawn its mandatory tender offer submitted in December to acquire the free-floating share in its subsidiary, Cairo National for Investment and Securities.

CANA BoD approved increasing its authorized capital to EGP10 billion from a current EGP5 billion to support the bank’s future growth plans.

CNFN is currently conducting feasibility studies ahead of its planned launch in Saudi Arabia by 2025 to serve the 3 million Egyptian expats living there. 

BINV’s BoD approved a USD3 million investment in subsidiary and fintech platform, Basta Holding for Financial Investments.

Weekly Commodities Update 

COMI
ORAS
FWRY
EFIH



Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Egypt received an additional USD5 billion as the final part of the first tranche of the USD35 billion Ras El-Hekma deal with the United Arab Emirates on Friday, the Egyptian Cabinet said.

Egypt repaid USD-denominated Eurobonds worth USD750 million, which it offered on February 26, 2019, with a coupon of 6.2%.

The government received USD520 mn as part of the USD800 mn sale of the seven historic hotels.

Fitch Ratings thinks that the agreement will “significantly improve” Egypt’s external financing position and its FX liquidity, paving the way for an adjustment of its exchange rate with a limited magnitude.

US Treasury Secretary said that Egypt is inching closer to finalizing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

The Suez Canal has lost over USD700 mn in revenue since the start of the war on Gaza compared to the same period a year earlier, according to estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence.

The cabinet approved EUR135 mn in soft financing from the EIB and a EUR30 mn grant from the EU, according to a cabinet statement.

Saudi Arabia’s Al Hokair Group has requested its usufruct contract of the Egyptian Media Production City (EMPC)'s Magic Land to be extended to 2078 from 2058.

GBCO (FV: EGP12.86, OW) released 4Q23 results. GB Corp is currently trading at a FY24 P/E of 3.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 3.1x.

EFIH(FV: EGP23.50, OW) reported 4Q23 results. BoD proposed distributing EGP0.19 per share (DPO: 28%, DY: 1%). EFIH is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 25.1x and EV/EBITDA of 18.2x.

Basata Holding for Financial Payments and Jordan Kuwait Bank announced the acceptance of their binding offer to acquire a 30% stake in Madfoatkom for Electronic Payment.

We raised our FV for HDBKfrom EGP65.00/share to EGP75.00/share and maintain our Overweight recommendation. HDBK is currently trading at 2024 P/E of 4.7x and P/B of 1.4x.

CANA released 4Q23 results. We reiterate our Overweight recommendation on CANA on an updated FV of EGP25.00/share. CANA is currently trading at P/E24 of 3.6x and P/B24 of 0.7x on ROAE of 24%.

CBE issued controls that banks must adhere to when financing financial leasing companies. The controls will come into force as of date of issuance on February 29th. 

The Kuwait Finance House (KFH) has submitted a non-binding offer to get the required data on central bank-owned lender United Bank for assessment. The group still has not submitted a final offer.

OFH shareholdershave 30 trading sessions starting today to respond to B Investments’ bid to acquire up to 90% of the company via a share swap.

HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) received an offer from Mountain View to co-develop 517 feddans in New Heliopolis. 

ARCC posted a solid set of consolidated results for 4Q23 and FY23. ARCC is currently trading at FY24e P/E of 10.9x and EV/EBITDA of 5.0x.

SCEM has appointed Tamer Ragheb as chairman following the resignation of Mohamed El Kady. The decision is pending general assembly approval. 

EFIC released 4Q23 audited standalone results.  EFIC'S BoD is proposing a cash dividend of EGP7/ share, implying a dividend yield of 9%. EFIC is currently trading at 2024e PE of 6.7x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x.

ABUK announced that it will start the maintenance of ABUK 1 factory on 28 April 2024, where the factory will stop production for one month.

PHAR released solid 4Q23 full financials. PHAR is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 8.0x and EV/EBITDA of 5.4x.

According to local media, OLFI announced it will be reducing its white cheese prices by EGP15-30/carton.

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The ADQ on Tuesday deposited the first tranche of its USD35 bn Ras El Hekma investment at the CBE,  El Sisi said.

Egypt has inked seven MoUs with international and local companies to develop green hydrogen and renewable energy projects worth USD41 bn in the Suez Canal Economic Zone over the next ten years.

The Madbouly government is looking into a proposal from Italian industrial manufacturer Danieli to establish a USD4 bn integrated industrial complex for the production of iron and steel products that will create 17k jobs. The project could also attract a further USD2-3 billion in investments for a green hydrogen plant.

BP's plans to invest USD1.5 bn in Egypt over the next three to four years, according to Bloomberg. 

Maersk has begun due diligence for the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm as it paves the way to submit a final offer to acquire half of the assets, while the UK-based private equity giant Actis has reportedly wrapped up due diligence on the state-owned 580-MW Gabal El Zeit wind farm.

TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) released 4Q23 results. Net profit reached EGP629.3 million in 4Q23 (+106.5% y/y, -44.0% q/q), bringing FY23 net profit up 43.8% y/y to EGP3.3 billion. The Board proposed the distribution of EGP0.218/share cash dividends, implying a DY of 0.3%. We raise our FV from EGP42.95/share to EGP73.80/share as a result of raising our sales projections across our forecast horizon.

PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) released 4Q23 results. Net profit in 4Q23 increased 54.3% y/y and 20.6% q/q to EGP532.2 million, bringing FY23 net profit up 25.9% y/y to EGP1.6 billion. We raise our FV from EGP5.59/share to EGP7.11/share as a result of raising our FY24 sales forecast.

According to local media, PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) aims to invest EGP9.5 billion in its projects in FY24 and expects FY24 sales to be similar to the FY23 level of EGP59.5 billion.

According to local media, OCDI aims to invest EGP10.0 billion in construction activity in its projects in FY24, compared to EGP6.0 billion invested in FY23.

HDBK released a summary of its 4Q23 financial indicators. Standalone bottom line recorded a strong EGP1,612 million (+220% y/y, +15% q/q). Bringing FY23 bottom line to EGP6,031 million (+167% y/y). BoD proposed distributing cash dividends of EGP3.00/share from 2023 net profit with a payout ratio of 26% and DY of 5.5%.

TAQA released 4Q23 unaudited financial indicators posting a 2% YoY decline (-3% QoQ) in net profit to record EGP192 million in 4Q23. Net profit increased by 3% YoY to EGP557 million in 2023. TAQA is currently trading at a 2024f P/E of 35.0x.

US-based ExxonMobil is reportedly looking to start drilling the first of three natural gas exploration wells in the Mediterranean’s North Marakia concession in October, with initial investments of about USD100 million. 

ORWE (FV: EGP23.42, OW) released positive 4Q23 results. Attributable net profit recorded EGP443 mn (+40.3% YoY, -25.6% QoQ). FY23 attributable net profit recorded EGP1,742 million (+106.4% YoY). BoD proposed dividends for FY23 of EGP1.25/share with a payout ratio of 48% and a DY of 6%. 

Market Overview 


Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Prime Minister held a meeting to look at offers submitted for Wataneya state-owned fuel retailer. Taqa Arabia is the only firm to have publicly declared interest, and Shell has reportedly also made a bid.

The IMF has resolved key issues with Egypt in a review of its previous USD3 bn loan program from the Fund, setting the stage for an augmented financing package “within weeks”.

Egypt's 5-year CDS rates sharply declined recording 6.76% on Monday, down from 9.85% on Friday, apparently responding to Ras Al Hekma deal news. Yield on Egypt's Eurobonds also declined, with yield maturing in June 2025 dropped to about 8% compared with more than 13% two weeks before.

The Official Gazette published a presidential decree to allocate a plot of state-owned land with an area of 170.8 million square meters in the Matrouh Governorate, to establish the new city of Ras El-Hikma, transferring it from lands owned by the armed forces.

The Economic Authority for the Golden Triangle, is studying offering the industrial zones in the area to an industrial developer, to be divided and developed according to a detailed plan into different production units.

Qatar Islamic Bank and Kuwait Finance House have completed their due diligence for United Bank in December. The transaction could reportedly reel in the USD equivalent of EGP22 bn, which is currently worth USD712 mn at official exchange rates.

The FRA has approved BINV’s MTO to acquire up to 90% of OFH via a share swap (1 BINV share: 56.76 OFH shares). The timeline of the MTO is to be made public before the end of this week.

Egypt’s financial inclusion rate, the percentage of citizens above the age of 16 who hold bank accounts, mobile wallets, or prepaid cards, jumped to 71% by the end of 2023 from 65% at the end of 2022.  Financial inclusion grew 174% between 2016 and 2023.

ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) reduced its local rebar price by EGP7k/ton to EGP46.6k/ton, inclusive of 14% VAT, as of today down from EGP53.5k/ton a week ago. 

SUGR (FV: EGP98.0, OW) reported 4Q23 results showing: 

•             4Q23 net profit came in at EGP187 million (+62% YoY, -41% QoQ), backed by reversed provisions for the quarter with the amount of EGP100 million and other income of EGP279 million, helping to reverse the losses recorded on the gross profitability and EBITDA levels. FY23 net profit recorded EGP1,592 million (+87% YoY), slightly below our expectations of EGP1,708 million.

•             SUGR is currently trading at a FY24 P/E of 5.3x.

"Beyti" for food industries is looking to increase its exports by 57% this year to reach USD55 mn.

EAST is looking to expand its exports destinations to Saudi Arabia, Emirates, and other African countries, as well as increasing their production capacity 20% in 2025.

Samih Sawiris invested USD100.0 million in ORHD's (FV: EGP20.38, OW) El Gouna for the establishment of a new hotel and expansion of existing hotels.

AMER reported FY23 net profit of EGP45.9 million, compared to FY22 net loss of EGP101.9 million.

CCAP the owner of 64.28% (directly and indirectly) of National Development and Trade, NDT, (Qalaa’s subsidiary operating in the Cement and related activities fields) announced that NDT has signed settlement agreements with three of its banks in full settlement of debts and agreed with a fourth bank to settle its debt over two years, which will have a positive impact on the company’s financial statements.

The Supreme Council of Energy has approved the national strategy for green hydrogen. It aims to transform Egypt into a regional hub for green hydrogen production by 2026 and a global hub by 2030.

Car manufacturers have been contacted by the local banks to reopen LCs for their manufacturing inputs, for the first time since last June

Market Overview 

The government will soon launch an international tender for the management and operation of all the airports in the country, Civil Aviation Minister said.

The House gave final approval to an amendment to the 2018 Consumer Protection Law that will see those hoarding key food commodities facing sentences of one year in prison and fines between EGP150k-3 million. 

"There are no negotiations regarding a project to develop the Ras Ghamila area in Sharm El Sheikh,” Public Enterprises Ministry spokesman said. 

The deadline granted to companies to benefit from investment incentives has been extended until 2029, in addition to allowing all new investment projects or their expansions to enjoy tax incentives on machinery and equipment. 

The CBE directed all banks to prepare a comprehensive assessment of the value of shipments accumulated at the ports which are financed by the “collection documents” mechanism only, provided that the value of these shipments is already in customers’ accounts in EGP. The CBE also requested a detailed report on all pending FX sourcing requests, whether they have been shipped or not yet, for all sectors and all financing mechanisms.

The General Authority for the Suez Canal Economic Zone is preparing for a global launch of the first phase of a water desalination plant with a production capacity of about 250 thousand cubic meters per day.

Egypt's share of the global tourism increased over the past year to 1.2%, compared to its share in 2019, which represented 0.9%.

The EGX plans to launch its shariah-compliant index in March.

MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) achieved stellar 4Q23 sales of EGP15.0 billion, up 334.5% y/y and 57.4% q/q, bringing FY23 sales to EGP29.9 billion, up 194.3% y/y. Net profit in 4Q23 grew 283.3% y/y and 0.5% q/q to EGP775.9 million, bringing FY23 net profit up 188.8% y/y to EGP2.1 billion. The Board proposed the distribution of EGP0.20/share cash dividends, in line with our expectations, implying a DY of 4.0%.

MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) is considering expanding to North Africa and the Gulf and aims to launch in Saudi Arabia in 1H24. 

EAST's CEO declared that the company's FX monthly needs range between USD40-50 million. Therefore, the general assembly will gather within the next few days to approve the decision to get USD400 million USD loans as LCs which will be repaid in EGP by the facilitation of the new Emirati partner.

ETEL and Huawei have announced a strategic partnership for the deployment of 5G networks.

Aman For Financial Services, a subsidiary of RAYA, will start providing installment services in Saudi Arabia in the second half of the year. Aman has already inked an agreement with an unnamed Saudi partner and expects to receive the Saudi Central Bank’s approval next month.

Qatar Islamic Bank and Kuwait Finance House (KFH) have completed their due diligence of United Bank, which is owned by the CBE, in preparation for one of them to acquire it based on price preference. 

CNFN will launch its UAE arm in 3Q24 to Egyptian expats there. Contact is also planning EGP1.5-2 billion worth of securitized bonds that will be issued in March.

HRHO subsidiary and e-payment solutions provider PayTabs has teamed up with consumer finance firm Souhoola to add BNPL options for customers at payment checkouts.

GBCO's NBFS arm GB Capital has launched GB Capital Sukuk after receiving its sukuk license from the FRA. 

AMOC shared an EGX disclosure saying that it has no knowledge of the media-reported planned stake sales by the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr.

Egypt's renewable energy production increased by 8% YoY to 6.691 MW during 2023.

The UAE’s largest fuel retailer Adnoc Distribution plans to ramp up its activity in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the company said in a statement. 

Market Overview 
FWRY 
GBCO
EFIH
ETEL


prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The USD35 billion Emirati investment in Egypt is an important step, but it is not linked to the Fund’s discussions with Egypt. These two topics are completely separate, the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia head said.

Egypt needs to ramp up private sector activity, rationalize spending, and maintain restrictive monetary policy to help boost economic growth, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.

The OECD sees economic growth falling to 3.2% in the current fiscal year — from 3.8% in the last fiscal year — as inflation continues to drive down consumption. Growth is set to pick up to hit 4.4% in FY2024-25. 

There could be a decline in the prices of essential commodities before Ramadan, as the release of goods that had been stuck at customs brings down prices, Federation of Chambers of Commerce Secretary-General said.

The House of Representatives gave the final approval yesterday to amendments that will raise the issuance fee of passports to EGP1k from EGP250. 

The House approved a EUR500 million grant from the European Investment Bank to support the Environment Ministry’s Sustainable Green Industry project, and an EUR80 million grant from Germany to fund the Environment Ministry's solid waste management program, help create 25 technological schools and centers, and support the Central Bank of Egypt’s financial risk management program.

The Commodity Exchange has stopped offering and trading the three most prominent strategic commodities: wheat, corn, and sugar about two months ago. The Minister of Supply attributed the reason for the halt to speculation and exaggerated prices for the wheat commodity, which will be offered again when prices stabilize.

EKHO released 4Q23 consolidated financial results. Net profit increased 25% YoY (+18% QoQ) to USD42.62 million in 4Q23. FY23 net profit declined 30% YoY to USD179.18 million. EKHO is currently trading at a 2024e PE of 5.1x and EV/EBITDA of 2.6x. 

According to local press press, the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr target selling part or all of their stake of 26% in AMOC.

EXPA (FV: EGP42.00, OW) 4Q23 consolidated bottom line recorded a strong EGP1.1 billion post minority interest (+227% y/y, +7% q/q), bringing FY23 bottom line post minority to EGP3.375 billion (+156% y/y). We raise our FV from EGP32.00/share to EGP42.00/share and maintain our Overweight recommendation on strong financial performance exceeding our expectations. EXPA is currently trading at 1.1x P/B24 and 5.5x P/E24, on RoAE of 22%.

ELSEWEDY ELECTRIC for Electrical Products (EEEP), a subsidiary of SWDY (FV: EGP34.96, OW), targets an increase in oil transformers' exports to USD150 million in 2024 up from USD120 million recorded in 2023.

According to local press, Saudi Egyptian Industrial Investment (SEII) plans to invest USD5 million in a new pharma production line, which should kick off operations early next year.

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 81.6 | -2.2%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 405 | -5.5%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 406 | -1.0%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,060 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 960 | 0.5%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 387 | 1.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,138 | -2.8%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,099 | -1.5%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 119 | 0.1%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,788 | 1.1%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

Market overview 

Ras El-Hekma: Potential Addition to TMGH Valuation Is Massive

On Friday, the Prime Minister announced a USD35.0 billion investment by ADQ to acquire the development rights for Ras El-Hekma on the North Coast in Egypt. ADQ’s press release mentions TMGH as one of the partners it will work with.

Egypt’s government officially announced the Ras El-Hekma investment deal. The deal size is as big as USD35 billion, which will be divided into two installments:

The USD has weakened on the parallel market to something in the EGP49.50 to EGP52.00 range.

A government official said that the proceeds of the Ras El-Hekma deal will be addressing the import backlog and paying arrears owed to foreign partners as cabinet’s top priorities.

The IMF staff and Egyptian officials continue to make excellent progress towards finalizing the long-stalled first and second reviews of Egypt’s loan program according to the Fund’s director of communication said. 

The Norwegian company SCATEC plans to establish a new wind power plant in Egypt in the Gabal El-Zeit region on an area of ​​22 square kilometers.

The government will be pausing rolling blackouts during the holy month of Ramadan — expected to start 11 March — according to a cabinet decision.

Minister of Finance announced the government’s intention to draft a new income tax law, which will be presented for a dialogue within weeks.

National Dialogue sessions on the economic axis will kick off on Monday. The sessions will last for four days, with discussions on issues associated with the state’s budget, inflation, social justice, and investments.

Kima released 2Q23/24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit grew 22% YoY (-53% QoQ) to EGP163 million in 2Q23/24. Net profit declined by 15% YoY to EGP514 million in 1H23/24.Kima is currently trading at a 2023/2024f PE of 11.8x and EV/EBITDA of 6.7x.

Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) and Alexandria National Refining and Petrochemicals Company (ANRPC) are considering teaming up with an undisclosed local private-sector player to establish a USD380 million sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project with an estimated production capacity of 120k tons a year.

Energean will announce the results of exploratory drilling at its Orion X1 well in the next two to three weeks.

TAQA, the Saudi Industrialization and Energy Services Company, is eyeing investment opportunities in Egypt’s offshore oil well services sector to drive its growth targets. 

Market Overview 
EAST
KABO
MCQE
ARCC


prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

UDC Real Estate Development has received a land plot in New Cairo’s Al Andalus to build a EGP60 bn mixed-use development. The project will span some 665k sqm and will feature residential, administrative, entertainment, commercial, and hospitality units.

Budget expenditures in 1HFY2023-24 rose to EGP1.461 trillion, compared to EGP940.8 billion in the corresponding period of FY2022/23, mainly due to a significant increase in interest payments, which reached EGP792.99 billion, compared to EGP392.84 billion in the comparison period. 

Finance Ministry has approved a proposal to amend the tax brackets for SMEs to take inflation into account.

The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) has awarded the local arm of the UK-based NHMC Group a plot of land in East Cairo’s Shorouk City to set up a USD300 mn medical and educational complex alongside a residential and commercial project. 

The Ministry of Finance intends to launch the seventh phase of the “immediate cash payment” initiative to support exporters before the end of 1Q2024.

The tonnage passing through the Suez Canal declined by about 28% YoY after the Houthi attacks on the ships heading to Israel.

A government official revealed that the Ministry of Public Business Sector intends to complete the preparation of two of its affiliated companies, to be listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange or offered to strategic investors, before the end of next June.

GB Corp (FV: EGP12.86, OW) announced yesterday that their subsidiary “International Group of Automotive Trading” is exploring the establishment of a trading and distributing passenger car company in Jordan, following the company’s strategy in expanding its geographical presence.

According to local media Abu Ghaly Motors is looking to add 3 new brands to their vehicles’ portfolio.

Local EV startup Shift EV is exploring opening a new factory in several stages that would eventually be able to convert 50k petrol-powered cars to EVs a year to keep up with increase in demand. 

A consortium of Petrojet and Elsewedy Electric and another between EKHO’s Natgas and Petrogas have made it to the Saudi Energy Ministry’s list of companies qualified to bid for dry gas and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) distribution licenses.

IPR Energy Group has earmarked USD110 million for investments during the current year.

The Oil Ministry has signed a memorandum of understanding with Al Nasr Petroleum Company (NPC) to assess the possibility of establishing a green hydrogen production unit in Suez.

ATLC(FV: EGP 7.50, OW) 4Q23 net income recorded EGP26 million (+48% y/y, -69% q/q). 2023 net income recorded EGP171 million (+29% y/y). ATLC is currently trading at P/B24 of 1.3x and P/E24 of 5.7x, on an ROE of 29%.

 The National Bank of Egypt’s net income rose by just under 120% y-o-y to EGP50 bn in 9M2023.

United Bank is eyeing 20-30% stakes in two unnamed tech companiesand aims to acquire the stakes within the coming few months.

Banque Misr aims to exit investments in 7 companies with proceeds of approximately EGP1.5 billion during the current year 2024.         

ALCN declared cash dividends of EGP2.40/share, partially paid in USD at exchange rate of EGP30.85, and the remaining will be paid in EGP. This implies dividend yield of 3.8% and payout ratio of 81.5%. Record date is March 4, 2024 and distribution date is March 7, 2024.

According to local media, ORHD (FV: EGP20.38, OW) signed a EGP200.0 million agreement with SolarizEgypt for the second phase of El Gouna's solar power plant. 

Market Overview 
COMI
SUGR
EAST
OIH
APSW
RMDA


prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The EGX is preparing a proposal to allow individuals to trade T- bills in the secondary market soon, within the framework of the EGX management strategy for development.

The government is considering a new increase in the procurement price of wheat ardeb for the current season by EGP400, to reach EGP2,000/ ardeb in conjunction with the rise in the price of wheat in the local market.

Egypt's gas exports increased during Last December to 438 million cubic meters compared to 206 million cubic meters In November, according to data from the Energy Data Platform Joint “JODI”.

ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) raised its rebar price by EGP3,600/ton to EGP53,520/ton on increasing FX rate in parallel market. 

EGAL (FV: EGP77.75, OW) has signed a cooperation agreement with Norwegian company Scatec ASA to build a 1 gigawatt (GW) solar power plant in the Industrial Complex in Naga Hammadi. Under the agreement, the plant will be built over two phases. The first phase is planned to be built within 18 months of the date of the agreement, while the second phase is set to be completed within 24 months. Scatec will develop and fund the project, in addition to installing equipment and conducting relevant studies.

The Oil Ministry aims to attract somewhere around USD7.5 billion in foreign direct investments from foreign partners in the Egyptian oil sector during the next fiscal year, compared to the USD6 billion in investments expected in the current fiscal year.

Egypt’s anticipated agreement with the IMF will help settle debts that it currently owes to foreign oil firms.

The oil minister confirmed unconfirmed reports from last year that the Middle East Oil Refining Company (Midor) will be the next company from the petroleum sector within the government’s privatization program.

Egypt is likely to suspend exports of liquefied natural gas during the coming summer on the back of increased domestic demand as rising temperatures strain supplies, 

The ministry of Petroleum has extended the deadline for a current oil exploration tender from 25 February to 1 April and plans to launch a new gas exploration tender during the second half of 2024.

Emirates National Oil Company subsidiary, Dragon Oil, plans to invest some USD500 million in Egypt this year to drill new wells and maintain oil production levels at 61k barrels per day (bpd). Dragon Oil wants to raise its production from the North Safa oil field in the Gulf of Suez to 8k bpd next year up from 6k bpd.

Apache aims to secure new oil and gas concessions areas in 2024. Egypt is committed to paying its dues to the company over a 30-year period.

Energean confirmed its intention to continue investing in Egypt’s oil sector despite the company’s accumulated receivables.

ERP, the American energy company targets investing USD250 million in Egypt during the current and the coming year.

According to local media, JUFO expect a 30-50% increase in demand on their products during Ramadan compared to any other month.

Member of the Board of Directors of the Chamber of Pharmaceutical Industry and the Head of the Cosmetics Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries stated that 70 pharmaceutical companies asked banks to source USD22 million advance payments for foreign suppliers, to be able to ship raw materials and supplies from countries of origin to Egypt.

Beltone Holding has entered into a multidimensional collaboration agreement with Bank of Africa Group (BOA Group) that will help Beltone and its new partner in developing mutual growth and leveraging product cross-selling potential in the African market.

EXPA signed an agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to obtain a loan worth USD25 million, with the aim of financing small and medium export companies.

CLHO
MTIE
ETEL
ORHD
ISPH



Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Tourist arrivals in the first 40 days of this year were up 5% from the same period last year, Tourism Minister said. Egypt received a record 14.9 million tourists in 2023.

Egypt's Trade deficit reached USD3.032 billion during December 2023. Egypt's trade deficit decreased during 2023 by about USD11.2 billion, recording about USD36.9 billion.

BP is planning to inject at least USD1.5 billion in new investments for development and exploration activities, with the potential of an additional USD5 billion in investments over the coming years.

The International Finance Corporation plans to invest some USD1 billion in Egypt this year, the same amount invested in the country last year.

The International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) has inked its USD1.5 billion annual work program with Egypt. The funds, earmarked for EGPC and GASC, will support the state’s energy and commodities purchases.

Saudi Egyptian Company for Medical Laboratories is set to invest some EGP400 million in the Egyptian market this year.

Finance Minister unveiled fresh details on the proposed amendments to the Unified Budget Act, under which the budgets of all 59 of the state’s economic bodies and the state budget will be presented in a new consolidated budget. The move will happen gradually over a five-year period starting FY2024-25. 

Suez Canal revenues are down by 40-50%, El Sisi said.

El Sisi calls for low-cost financing to drive Egypt’s green transition as previously pledged by major economies.

The FRA approved the decision of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board of Directors regarding redividing the stock market into four main markets, instead of two.

EGAL reported 2Q23/24 full financial results with net income surging to EGP1.8 billion during the quarter (+69% YoY, +11% QoQ), bringing 1H23/24 bottom-line to EGP3.4 billion, which is double comparative period earnings of EGP1.7 billion. EGAL is currently trading at FY23/24e P/E of 8.2x. 

SAUD (FV: EGP25.00, OW) 4Q23 net profit recorded EGP617 million (+23% y/y, +5% q/q), bringing 2023 bottom-line to EGP2,224 million (+27% y/y). 

•We raise our FV from EGP17.00/share to EGP25.00/share and maintain our Overweight recommendation.

•The stock is currently trading at P/E24 of 5.2x, with ROAE of 21%.

ADIB (FV: EGP 70.00, OW) will increase its authorized capital to EGP10 billion, and its paid and issued capital to EGP6 billion, through 1:5 bonus shares, financed from 2023 net profit.

EFG Corp-Solutions, the leasing and factoring arm of HRHO, plans to provide at least EGP10 billion in financing in 2024, up from the EGP8.5 billion provided last year.

The Islamic Corporation for Private Sector Development, has signed a letter of intent with Banque Misr to provide a USD30 million line of credit to finance private sector and SME projects.

Egypt is now aiming to have renewables make up 60% of its energy mix by 2030, according to an Oil Ministry statement, as compared to a previous target of 40%.

The Israeli Energy Ministry has greenlit an agreement that will see Israel increase its gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field starting July 2025. Israel will raise gas exports by an additional 4 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually for the next 11 years which is triple what is currently exported from the field.

The Saudi Industrialization and Energy Services Company (TAQA) is planning to tap into Egypt’s offshore oilfield services sector in 2026. The company, will invest three or four times the amount it invested in 2023 during the current year.

City Lab for Medical Analysis Company obtained the FRA approval to be registered, the FRA also approved trading the company’s shares that were temporarily registered on the stock exchange in the medium and small size companies market. The trading on the company’s stock will begin before th