The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact. 

For those that want to check out more about SF Fed official Adam Shapiro's graph illustrating demand vs supply components of inflation...Click Here!

To view the graphs referenced, check out the latest Pensford Newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE! 

We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings versus unemployment. We explore Fed Chair Powell's latest comments, the role of immigration and part-time work in today's economy, and the looming question: Is the current economic strength sustainable or just a sugar rush from stimulus spending?

To check out the graphs referenced, read the Pensford Newsletter.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong. 

Want to read as well? Check out his Pensford Newsletter.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We’ll break down this week’s keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we’re setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we’re at and where we might be heading.

Weekly Pensford Newsletter

Want to subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter? Here you go!

Q1 Webinar Registration - Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 21st, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.

For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis)

To read the newsletter in all it's graph laden glory click here

On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation.  We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data. 

To subscribe to JP's weekly Pensford newsletter, click here

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landscape, analyze financial indicators, and assess the implications of tightening banking standards and global disinflation trends.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP shares an experience from his first day on the Wachovia trading floor, highlighting the stress of betting $5 when you have $2 in your pocket. We discuss the impact of large Treasury issuances and the Fed's balance sheet reduction, the Treasury's new buyback program, and the effects of the Term Funding Program's conclusion on bank liquidity and Treasury investments. Then we look ahead to fewer data points this week, but numerous Fed speeches that may impact rates. 

To read more or to see graphs check out the Pensford Newsletter :  https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/houston-we-have-a-liquidity-problem

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy.

We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what they may mean for our economy.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out. 

Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP lists his lead pipe locks for 2024...spoiler alert, there's no such thing as a soft landing and we will have a recession. We also take a look back at his lead pipe lock predictions for 2023 and grade him on how those panned out. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk inflation, unemployment, the 10 Year Treasury and if the Fed has already overdone it.

This Thursday we have our Q4 Interest Rate Webinar. Register Here -> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar-2023

Graph referenced

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps. 

This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global data REALLY looks like. Thanks Brad! 

This is graph heavy, so you may want to check out the Pensford newsletter to view them and the amazing photoshop job of Harbaugh as a Pulp Fiction character.  This podcast is chalk full of JP angst, Chicago sirens and data that may leave you questioning the headlines. 

Link to Brad Setser's "China Isn't Shifting Away From the Dollar or Dollar Bonds".

On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thread to emerge from the flurry of Fed speeches lined up this week—we'll tell you what we think that will be. 

As promised, Ken/Barbie photo, the Sphere ad and the Birth/Death graph.

Birth Death adjustments continue their suspicious upward trend. Remember, this is the government’s estimate of jobs created out of the “birth or death” of businesses…but it’s a total guess. Is it weird to anyone else that this fudge factor keeps going up month to month? We are becoming overly reliant on this estimate to maintain positive job gains so the headlines can scream “tight labor market!”

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about GOATs, in sports, in comedy...in interest rates. We also analyze economic conditions and determine which inflation cycle fromt the past are we repeating and why, this week's Fed meeting, how governtment spending is impacting treasury yields, and the biggest contributing factors to a 5% 10Y Treasury and what will need to happen for it to move back toward 4%. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast, we dive into the "gangbuster" jobs report and what details to pay attention to in this week's inflation data. Curious about the Fed's game plan and how it might impact 2024 rates? We've got some theories...but definitely not the conspiracy kind!

Numbers reference if the podcast. For more info check out the Pensford Newsletter. 

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs report and more importantly, JP will get his JOLTS report that he so loves!

If you missed our Q3 Interest Rate webinar here is the link! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8js3C0zyUiQ

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, Inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury and JP creates the seamingly impossible parallel between economic conditions and prime time tv. 

We have our quarterly webinar this Thursday! Register here : https://www.pensford.com/q3-pensford-webinar-2023

For graphs referenced : https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/inflation-hammocking

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the unexpected outcome of the Texas vs. Bama game and take a look at the job market nuances and how they are coming up with the data that The Fed is so dependent on. We also talk about this week's anticipated inflation data and its implications.

On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.

On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and economic insights, as JP weaves it all together to challenge some traditional views on monetary policy.

Links Referenced:

1. The research paper itself: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2787193 2. The indices they created as a result of the research: https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/

Graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter on the homepage under "Latest Newsletter" https://www.pensford.com/

On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will the tightening actually continue to 'improve morale'?

For graphs referenced check out the Pensford's newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP. 

On this special episode of The Rate Guy we discuss today's Fed meeting and translate what we think J Powell was trying to communicate in the Q&A. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's Fed meeting, what we expect for the rest of this year and if we can achieve a soft landing. 

For graphs referenced, click here - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/to-heck-with-your-soft-landing

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we analyze last week's inflation data, what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the confusion over why no one is talking about about FHLB advances.

Link to the Newsletter to view graphs referenced - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/progress-not-perfection

What are FHLB advances?  https://www.fhlbof.com/ofweb_userWeb/resources/lendingqanda.pdf

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why in the world rates would pop up in the face of a down jobs report and why the Market thinks there is nearly 100% chance that the Fed hikes at the next meeting...and why we think that's bonkers!

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony in front of Congress this week, how his hawkish comments effected the Market and what he continues to hold up as Exhibit A for why more hiking may be necessary.

For tables/graphs referenced click here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss CPI, the Fed meeting and how the Market has been reacting the last month to the persception that maybe the Fed won't be cutting interest rates this year. 

To register for our Q2 webinar this Thursday (6/15 @ 1pm est) click here--> https://www.pensford.com/q2-pensford-webinar-2023

Hope to see you there!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into the paradox of the strong job report and the Fed's reluctance to hike rates! Despite positive job growth, why is the rate hike's likelihood still in question? 

We'll also uncover the complexities of wage inflation, treasury issuance, liquidity issues from the recent debt ceiling debate, and the challenges to our financial stability.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the 5 Reasons why The Fed won't hike on June 14th despite the hotter than inspected inflation data. 

If you'd also like to read the Newsletter. Check it out here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-hike-june-14

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of a hike, pause and when the Fed may start cutting. We also touch on the Leading Economic Indicators index and what to look for this week from Fed speeches and Core PCE. 

As always, graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford Newsletter at Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss The Pause (tm) and why future Fed moves will not be data dependent.  For those that missed it here is JP's recap of last week's Fed meeting  - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-next-fed-move-will-be-a-cut

Welcome to another riveting episode of The Rate Guy! Today, we're diving deep into the world of the NFL draft in more ways than one. We explore JP's alternate reality as an NFL GM, his embarrassing, but emotionally healthy football rage outlet that helps him stay sane in the midst of football season. 

Then we're adding a unique twist by conducting our very own Interest Rate Draft. Our star players? Jerome Powell, inflation, the labor market, fed pause and rate caps. We break down the game plan behind each contender, assessing their strengths and weaknesses.

Want to go directly to the Interest Rate Draft? Go to the ~13min mark.

Images and graphs referenced can be found here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-interest-rate-draft-2023

Interested in seeing JP's website masterpieces? Here you go!

https://howiecantdraft.com/

https://pleasepausepowell.com/

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the Inflation report, stagflation and the status of the banking sector. We also touch on some leading indicators you might not be watching.

As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter

Here is the excellent piece that discussed that Wells put out this week. It is calling for FF to hit 2.50% in Q3 2024 (https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/6a9018a1-5d1a-4649-bb05-d3da7569fc2f)

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss money supply, the jobs report, volatility and the record credit crunch we are currently facing. 

Graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford's newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/a-historical-credit-crunch.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we lay out our current take on the Fed's situation, discuss the widespread layoffs and the upcoming jobs report. 

For graphs referenced check out our Newsletter 

ZipRecruiter conducted a survey of recently laid off workers (https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/survey-of-recently-laid-off-workers/). 

Here's a list of some publicly announced layoffs (https://mondo.com/insights/mass-layoffs-in-2022-whats-next-for-employees/) - Roku layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Lucid Group layoffs: 18% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Meta layoffs: 13% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Twitter layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Twillo layoffs: 17% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Roomba layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Disney layoffs: 3% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Zoom layoffs: 15% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Dell layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - HubSpot layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - PayPal layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - IBM layoffs: 1.5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Gemini layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Yankee Candle layoffs: 13% of office workers laid off (January, 2023) - Spotify layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Google (Alphabet) layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Microsoft layoffs: 4-5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Amazon layoffs: 1-2% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Carta layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Coinbase layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - DirecTV layoffs: 5-6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)

- Salesforce layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Vimeo layoffs: 11% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Goldman Sachs layoffs: 8% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Stitch Fix layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell's primary messaging goals, the market's reaction to that messaging, and tightening credit conditions. For graphs reference, check out the Pensford Newsletter. www.Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss March Madness as it relates to basketball and banking! We talk about the Fed jumping in for the failing banks, the thought process behind the two camps, to hike or not to hike this week, cap prices, and what toilet paper and volatility have in common. It's so crazy right now that it's easy to overlook that we have an FOMC meeting this week! 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the only thing everyone is talking about, the fall of SVB. We touch on how the Fed may respond, important indicators that they can't ignore and if this could be the first domino to topple. JP pulls from his experience of surviving the Financial Crisis to shed light on what parallels he's seeing and what to be on the look out for. 

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we welcome two of our favorite experts. Paul Peebles, the sage rainmaker from Old Capital and Michael Becker a 15 yr Commercial Real Estate veteran and co-founder / Principal at SPI Advisory, LLC. We discuss current market conditions, the hopes and concerns for our industry and what their saying "survive to '25" means to them. 

You can listen to more of their wisdom on The Old Capital Podcast which caters to both novice and seasoned Real Estate Investors by providing genuine insights and practical knowledge. By listening to the interviews with active investors who are engaged in acquiring and operating apartment complexes, you can gain valuable knowledge from their experiences. Additionally, you can learn how they identify, finance, and operate these complexes, as well as receive helpful advice on getting started and avoiding common pitfalls.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell replacing, “Inflation is transitory” with, “The disinflation process has begun." And how this is a signal that that end of hiking is approaching. We also touch on inflation (obviously), money supply and cap rates. 

To view graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss...a lot! We touch on last week's FOMC meeting, the impact of real rates being positive, why some skeptics (definitely not JP) are suspicious of the jobs number/JOLTS report, the Financial Conditions graph finally getting some love, and Cap Prices falling. 

As discussed in the podcast, here is the piece by Preston Mui - https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/a-vacant-metric-why-job-openings-are-so- unreliable/

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we try to stifle our Eagles excitement to discuss the rapidly cooling economy, what we think Powell wants to see in real rates and why jobs data is a terrible leading indicator to watch. #flyeaglesfly

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the market is pricing in around fed funds, how the 10T could be effected by the crash landing, a reminder about the worst time to lock a rate and of course, THE EAGLES!

As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/crash-landing-here?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy we welcome special guest Tom Briney of Origin Investments. He enlightens us on the world class cycling realm, Origin's proprietary analytics model that beats all the top industry players' and his outlook for lending appetite in the year ahead.

To read Tom's latest article that we reference, click here. 

"The Death of the Fed Put" - Tom Briney

On this special episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we lay out our Lead Pipe Lock market predictions for 2023 and JP reluctantly, but graciously walks us through his 2022 prediction fails. Warning - they were really bad! We also introduce you to the newest music sensation, Mexican Polka. You can thank us later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASD_qzjriWA

For graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/lead-pipe-lock-predictions-2023

Happy New Year Everyone!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we welcome our good friend and financing expert Jake Roberts of Abundance Capital. We discuss his journey to entrepreneurship, his team's vision and what they prioritize for success, his insights into today's lending market and what needs to change for transaction volume to return.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcase we discuss this week's FOMC meeting, inflation, expecations and the 10 Year Treasury. We also talk about what took our office by storm this week. ps. If you love your time, do not check out ChatGPT!

Pensford Newsletter: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/chatgpt-says-the-fed-wont-talk-about-pausing-this-week?hsLang=en

Pensford Q4 Interest Rate Webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VnSgeMtXiw

On this episode of The Rate Guy we reveal some interest findings in our research about job market stats and the Fed's decision making, specifically regarding rate pauses and cuts. It's a light data week ahead, but we do have our first ever Interest Rate Webinar this Tuesday, December 6th at 10am eastern! (sorry West Coast folks...that was our bad in scheduling!)

Interested in joining us for the webinar REGISTER HERE --> https://lnkd.in/gt3wFT_Z This webinar will cover a variety of topics including: - 2023 Rate Forecasts - Fixed vs Floating - Cap Cost Analysis - When Will the Fed Cut Rates? - And, undoubtedly, some trash talk 

To view graphs referenced in the podcast, click here https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/a-resilient-job-market-doesnt-normally-dictate-fomc-policy?hsLang=en

On this short and sweet Thanksgiving episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the dramatic change in Shipping/Port activity, the biggest takeaways from the FOMC minutes and the contrary Fed camps that are emerging.

If you want to check out JP's favorite graph, Financial Conditions, click the newsletter here ---> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/no-the-fed-is-not-pivoting-yet?hsLang=en

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss PPI (the Producer Price Index), the two opposing perspectives of the Market and the Fed, Stagflation, and JP's favorite graph ever...financial conditions.

Graph fans can check out the newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/2023-year-of-the-stag?hsLang=en

And if you're interested in joining us for the webinar December 6th, register here --> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar

This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the market's reaction to the inflation print and what Powell needs to see in order to change course.

Graph fans can check out the newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/unemployment-doesnt-go-up-until-the-fed-has-started-cutting?hsLang=en

And if you're interested in joining us for the webinar December 6th, register here --> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar

This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the FOMC meeting, Inflation data, the Jobs Report and the top 3 ways our Fed hikes are dramatically effecting the global economy. 

If you want to skip the intro and hearing about JP's brush with fame (twice!), fast forward to the 10 min mark. 

For the graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/fed-funds-to-5-in-q4?hsLang=en

WEBINAR SIGN UP! https://www.pensford.com/quarterly-call?hs_preview=GpGTQuSg-89727519126

Article about Philadelphia sports success predicting a recession. https://www.inquirer.com/business/phillies-astros-economics-recession-20221101.html

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's FOMC meeting. What Powell's frame of mind might be, his top concerns and the 4 things to be on the look out for during the meeting. 

For visuals and super cool graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-fed-will-hike-to-4-this-week?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the super hot inflation data that came out last week, but also other factors that are lurking on the horizon that could prove to be an even bigger problem for our economy.

If you're interested in checking out the graphs referenced or subscribing to the Pensford newsletter...here you go! https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/infation-might-be-our-2nd-biggest-problem?hsLang=en

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the near catastrophic moment that England just experienced, how the current market could influence your fixed vs floating strategy and when we think rates will plunge next year and why. 

To check out the graphs referenced, click here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-bottom-will-drop-out-next-year

On this episode of The Rate Guy we welcome our first guest ever, CEO and founder of one of the fastest growing multifamily firms in the country. We were thrilled to talk with Scott Everett who believes the Fed is over hiking, the Cowboys are better and the Eagles, and owning a Tequila brand is one of the most fun ways to lose a lot of money. Hope you enjoy our first interview as much as we did! 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about all things Fed. We dissect the lesser talked about points from the FOMC meeting and how those will impact our industry. Then JP attempts to apply his ever-optimistic outlook on our 3 main takeaways. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Sarah's intro to the pit of despair that is Fantasy Football, the inflation data that came out last week, how that will affect this week's Fed hike and what the ramifications of that decision may be. We also pose the question, is it too soon to discuss the Fed overshooting it?

For graphs referenced, click here.

On this week's Rate Guy we, of course, touch on the start of the football season. Then we focus on inflation and what rules we think we're going to be playing by. Because as CRE professionals need to know so they can get back to what they do best...closing deals.

For graphs referenced click here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/we-just-need-to-know-what-rules-to-play-by?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how the 1970's era of super high inflation compares to the current environment and what that means for rate policy going forward. 

There are lots of graphs referenced in this podcast. To view those, check out the Pensford newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/is-this-the-1970s-all-over-again?hsLang=en

We're glad to be back! On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the RV trip and the "best" memories we took away from the trip. Then we get into Inflation, Jackson Hole and what we think J Powell is focused on.

If you want to skip to Market talk, go to the 13 minute mark. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get stories about The Rate Guy name origin, JP's prowess on the Pickleball court, the jobs report and what the inflation data coming out this week may indicate.

If you want to skip to the market talk go to the 10 minute mark. If you want to hear how JP nearly "bled to death" this weekend listen to the intro!

As always, for graphs or other data referenced check out the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/will-cpi-take-the-worst-case-scenario-off-the-table?hsLang=en

https://traffic.libsyn.com/rateguy/The_Rate_Guy_-_ep_101_Will_CPI_Take_the_Worst_Case_Scenario_Off_The_Table.mp3

On this historic 100th episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, break down the possible response to 3 different scenarios, what we think the most likely hike will be and why. We also explore the emerging buyers market in real estate and how CRE & Multifamily Industries might respond to current and future interest rate conditions. 

As always, for graphs & bonus data, check out the Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/75bps-or-100bps?hsLang=en

On this short and sweet episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all of the economic data that came out last week. Between our bouts of Friday punchiness we touch on how we think it will impact us in the short/long term. 

For more of a deep dive this week check out the Pensford Newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/sofr-4.0-by-year-end?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "resilient" job market, what always affects gas prices, a line item not to miss in your negotiations, and, of course, lots of inflation talk. 

If you want to read more, check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/is-inflation-finally-about-to-peak?hsLang=en

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss sports karma, the only thing that matters to Powell, and what data points to pay attention to as we approach a likely recession. 

For graphs referenced check out the Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/unconditional-inflation?hsLang=en

On this special midweek edition of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about, what else, today's FOMC meeting. We touch on the top takeaways and JP has some warm and fuzzy data points that will undoubtedly make your day!

For more info and data referenced check out the Pensford newsletter here. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/sofr-to-4-by-march?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy all attention is on the upcoming Fed meeting and how dramatically expectations continue to shift.

To view graphs or other data referenced check out the Pensford newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/fed-funds-to-3.0-this-year?hsLang=en

We are super excited about this episode of The Rate Guy! We draw parallels between interest rate markets and TopGun Characters. If you're a fan of the movie we think you'll love it. If you don't like the movie...there are no words.

https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/interest-rates-the-top-gun-edition?hsLang=en

"I feel the need. The need for speed!"

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the improbability of a soft landing, what cooling inflation really looks like and what might be the most worrisome this to J Powell right now.

For graphs referenced check out our newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss if the bottom is actually falling out, inflation, and our hopes for the Core PCE number coming out this week. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss  the recession threshold and when we're set to hit it. We also analyze our recent restrictive territory history and how the Fed behaved during those times. 

Link to the Pensford newsletter and graphs referenced. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/whats-the-game-plan-here?hsLang=en

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, how quantitative tightening could effect asset pricing and our take on when the economy could break itself throw us into a recession.  

To see the photo of J Powell as an astronaut check out the Pensford Newsletter! Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss GPD, inflation data, and the 10T number that you need to be paying attention to and why.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the reasons why inflation data may have come in below expectation and what might be the new normal for the 10 Year Treasury. 

We cover a lot in this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast! We discuss probable Russian default, the MTE (monetary tightening to easing ratio), the impact of rate hikes coupled with balance sheet reduction, and why the odds of over hiking are significant. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the 4 ways that rising rates could effect our economy and the 1 thing everyone, including J Powell, should be paying attention to. 

For graphs referenced or more info check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/its-the-liquidity-stupid?hsLang=en

On this special mid-week episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss all things Fed meeting. What the raise means short term, long term and the outlook on when to expect rates to start coming back down. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the biggest oddity of the jobs report, why cap prices exploded last week and how volatility works when it comes to interest rate pricing, and of course we had to talk about the Heels beating the Blue Devils.

To check out the graphs referenced: https://www.pensford.com/interest-rate-caps-have-lost-their-dang-mind/

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the possible impact Russia's invasion of Ukraine could have on rates, reasons why the short end of the curve is behaving differently than the long end and what may be a key driver of fed policy moving forward.

For extra content and graphs you can always check out the Pensford newsletter at https://www.pensford.com/is-the-10-year-treasury-too-complacent/

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how interest rates and caps behave during a tightening cycle. We also address the top questions we are getting around cap pricing strategy and why you shouldn't neglect the floor during negotiations!

If you want to check out the graphs in the Pensford Newsletter go to https://www.pensford.com/how-do-floating-rates-behave-in-a-tightening-cycle/

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what we can learn from past Fed tightening and easing cycles and why the best time to lock in a fixed rate is right before the Fed hikes...which we all know is on the horizon. 

We talk about a lot of graphs in this podcast and those can be seen in the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/the-best-time-to-lock-is-right-before-the-fed-hikes/

Here is also the whitepaper, "The Hidden Cost Of Fixed Rate Debt," that we reference https://www.pensford.com/resources/the-hidden-cost-of-fixed-rate-debt/

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss last week's FOMC meeting where Powell went full hawk and how the market may react. We also talk recession forecast and, of course, we had to acknowledge Brady's retirement by JP ranking his top 3 worstest moments in his career. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, what is driving the increase in cap pricing and what the Fed might do with its balance sheet. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the Jobs Report, the dramatic effect it had on rate hike expectations and JP's breakdown of his 2021 "lead pipe lock" predictions...spoiler alert...he missed a lot! 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation, what risk is most unappreciated by the market, a shout out to JP's favorite economist Julia Coranado and, of course, what to look for out of the Fed meeting this week.

To see supporting graphs and infographics, check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/fomc-primer-will-the-fed-call-for-hikes-next-year/

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss last Friday's Job Report and the corresponding plunge in interest rates that went along with it. We will also touch on the future of the 10T and how it relates to inflation. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what caused last week's rate plunge, FOMC's thoughts about inflation, tapering and the new variant's influence on short and long term rates.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss our ax throwing excursion, this week's Fed Chair announcement, inflation and what to expect out of the 10T over the next couple of years. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the topic that's leading all the headlines...inflation. We list five reason why inflation isn't as bad as it appears and what the Fed's next steps may be.

To view graphs referenced in our podcast, read our Pensford newsletter.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss what may be announced or avoided this week at the FOMC meeting and if interest rate volatility will continue.