Top Traders Unplugged

Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when viewed beyond GDP and stock market performance, and that its emphasis on manufacturing, engineering and long-term resilience may now be becoming a major advantage. They discuss the consequences of financialization in the US and Europe, Japan’s role in semiconductors, robotics and AI, and why Warren Buffett’s move into Japanese equities matters. The conversation also explores public debt, domestic capital flows and why Japan could play a much larger role in the global economy ahead. For those who are quick, check out this event featuring Andrew McDermott as well as last weeks guest Jesper Koll: https://mvpnashjapan.up.railway.app/

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Mission Value Partners on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and Andrew’s path into Japan investing

05:05 - Why Andrew thinks Japan’s capitalism works better

11:32 - Manufacturing, industrial policy and the return of real investment

15:10 - Why investors may have misunderstood Japan for decades

19:56 - Is the era of financialization starting to reverse?

24:52 - AI, machine learning and Japan’s hidden advantage

31:11 - Japan versus China and two very different economic models

35:55 - Has Japan really changed or were investors simply wrong?

40:45 - What Warren Buffett saw in Japan

45:19 - Is Japan’s government debt really as dangerous as it looks?

52:40 - What happens if Japanese capital starts coming home?

56:33 - What Japan could look like ten years from now

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why trend following may be different in the age of machine learning

02:09 - France, rising yields and changing perceptions of safe assets

07:27 - Trend following performance and a changing bond market

16:29 - Why the structure and participants of markets matter

20:26 - Liquidity, capital flows and the plumbing behind financial crises

27:58 - Globalization, capital flows and the role of the dollar

35:33 - Crises, market upheavals and commodity supercycles

37:32 - Why today’s higher bond yields may actually be normal

45:31 - Are Treasuries losing some of their safe-haven advantage?

52:26 - Geoeconomic fragmentation and what it means for trend following

56:51 - Commodity shortages and why prices can suddenly go parabolic

01:02:12 - AI, crowded models and the shrinking half-life of alpha

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Jesper on Substack.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and the optimistic case for Japan

02:10 - How Jesper built a career around Japan

04:12 - Why Japan’s underlying strengths are often overlooked

07:12 - Demographics, labor scarcity and rising productivity

11:04 - Why Jesper doesn’t see Japan’s debt as a crisis

13:34 - Is Japanese capital finally coming back home?

17:15 - Takaichi, industrial policy and the next phase after Abenomics

22:17 - Why the Bank of Japan may start moving faster

25:46 - The yen, carry trades and the risk of a stronger currency

33:51 - Japan’s push into semiconductors, defense and industrial policy

38:18 - Energy security and Japan’s next major investment challenge

40:31 - Why Japan is taking a different approach to AI

44:18 - Could Japan outperform if the US AI boom slows?

47:16 - What the West can learn from Japan

52:35 - Corporate reform, generational change and consolidation

57:19 - Where Japanese rates could go next

58:16 - The key signals investors should watch from here

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar

06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers

11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation

17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios

21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly

28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change

31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world

41:56 - Commodities versus trend following as inflation protection

47:40 - Why a handful of months drive so much of trend’s return

52:38 - How investors end up timing liquid alternatives badly

58:12 - How institutions can make it easier to stay invested

01:02:50 - Can packaging trend with other assets solve the problem?

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again

02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime

06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?

10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?

17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert

22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy

28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities

38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?

42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap

45:30 - What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market

52:44 - How to prepare for a market you can’t time

58:20 - Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds

01:02:20 - Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating

01:05:54 - Why currency volatility could matter much more

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach

01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work

08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict

09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns

13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned

16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions

22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds

27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us

31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 2022

36:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs

38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital

44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns

50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult

54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie

01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details

01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager

01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look bad

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets

02:46 - How football results can move stock markets

07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment

11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals

16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge

21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative

26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle

30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes

35:35 - Where individual investors can exploit overlooked opportunities

37:48 - How round numbers influence buying and selling decisions

39:54 - The disposition effect and why investors hold onto losers

44:12 - Three practical ways to make better investment decisions

47:20 - Why writing down your investment thesis matters

52:08 - Outsourcing the ugly decisions

55:30 - AI, bubbles and the big market delusion

58:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find the book

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming

00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar

03:34 - A strong year for trend following

05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?

09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries

12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically

18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?

19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth

25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system

33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market

37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock

42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets

46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead

48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next

50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund?

54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns

01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different future

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Find out more about DUNN Capital.

Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.

Episode Timestamps:

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention

01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500

04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world

08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following

12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike

15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive?

20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us

23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction

25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance?

27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help

29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers

32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation

44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio?

50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult

55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following?

58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives

01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents?

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability.

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Cory on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade

01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy

04:35 - How US power markets actually work

08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix

11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids

14:42 - What a power trader actually trades

19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops

21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather

28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders

30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like

33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader

36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable

38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy

40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory

43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders

48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders

50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power?

53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity markets

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared

03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following

06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets

11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets

16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early?

21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets

25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems

29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes

35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets

40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist

42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax

50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves

54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market

58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed

01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future

01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predict

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market

00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt

03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history

07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market

12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability

17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset

24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries

28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?

32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born

39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds

44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying

48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income

49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity

55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve

57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break

02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds

05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends

07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?

14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies

17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets

20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far

23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?

31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?

36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy

40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling

44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading

52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following

55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same

01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Matt on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged

01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed

05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s

11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?

15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?

18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?

21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust

26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise

31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news

33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium

37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances

42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world

48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China

52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen

58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar

01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust

06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency

10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity

12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update

16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds

19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer

21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk

25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process

29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate

31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following

38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?

43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following

51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets

58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity

01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020

01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Marvin on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else

01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth

04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve

09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?

16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean

18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy

25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?

31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system

35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?

40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality

47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits

57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations

59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt

01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets

01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar

01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters

07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question

08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention

12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed

16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply

18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?

22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning

24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function

30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields

34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime

41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime

49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification

52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns

01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow David on LinkedInand Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors

01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing

06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional

10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets

13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market

14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history

18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles

23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?

28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven

29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters

32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines

34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm

39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work

42:33 - Why investors have never had it better

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections

01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets

07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk

10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes

13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks

14:51 - August trend following performance

16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends

20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity

27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?

31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market

36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage

41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?

47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following

52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers

56:49 - The “podification” of trend following

59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles

01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Mike on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing

04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world

07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed

12:09 The return of fiscal activism

15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital

19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?

22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates

25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble

29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime

33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification

37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters

42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis

46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved

48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta

52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio

56:47 How AI could transform investment management

01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investors

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania

02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment

06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow

08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026

10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing

14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience

17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance

22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape

24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs

29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage

32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control

37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?

42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs

50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha

55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading

01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks

01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs

01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Charles on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing

03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing

09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary?

12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners

18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble?

21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity

25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation

28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies

32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve

40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook

43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers

48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities

51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive?

57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today

58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investors

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Harry on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments

09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review

18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance

22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience

30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research

36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters

46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks

56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios

58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules

01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following

01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies

01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughts

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Paul on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking

01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing

04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations

08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations

11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment

15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model

20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing

24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model

26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities

31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio

38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio

43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha

45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers

51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures

57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investors

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Follow David on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge

08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems

18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets

26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility

31:38 - Where major market moves really come from

39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing

46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk

51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers

56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility

01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk

01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios

01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk

01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex markets

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Tyler on LinkedInand Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks

00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history

06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age

13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions

18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think

21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows

27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history

30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions

35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions

39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger

44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend

47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008

51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks

56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation

06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence

13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment

20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers

28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following

34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies

37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors

44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets

50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum

58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested?

01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors?

01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investing

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction

01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners

09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following

11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend

16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important

21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors

25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency

30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities

40:41 - New ideas around leverage and capital efficiency

42:37 - Kelly sizing, drawdowns and maximizing long term returns

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations

06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns

12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning

18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals

25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure

36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets

39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained

47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from

55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour

01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy

01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investing

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.

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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics

09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets

15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading

21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets

31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected

37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications

43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals

48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months

58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally

01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities

01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom

01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing

05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading

12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers

15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story

20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy

30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following

38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following

46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure

49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled

55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading

01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend following

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Brendan on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny

00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history

06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics

11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money

17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States

26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency

29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation

34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance

40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs

44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful

50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter

52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries

03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets

07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy

09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs

15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism

19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system

30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage

37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different

45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury

50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months

52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst

57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on one of the most consequential periods in modern history.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Pippa on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect

01:05 - Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes

03:11 - Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury

06:40 - Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks

12:01 - Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement

22:17 - The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership

30:49 - Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace

39:38 - Nuclear energy, AI and the race toward technological abundance

45:48 - Populism, inequality and whether AI will widen or close the wealth gap

55:32 - How societies can prepare for an AI driven future

58:10 - Greenland, the Arctic and the strategic battle for space infrastructure

01:04:20 - Pippa's father, diplomacy and the lessons that shaped her worldview

01:09:28 - Non human intelligence, AI and the profound questions facing humanity

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan

05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994

10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns

14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough

20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year

23:10 - What defines a market regime change

27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities

39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers

48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes

56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress

01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain markets

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Manoj on LinkedInand Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks

03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates

06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing

12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem

17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models

20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates

27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages?

37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging

45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored”

50:40 - The tension between inflation control and debt stability

54:49 - Could high rates trigger a crisis and force policy reversal?

58:28 - Final thoughts on demographics, debt, and the future of inflation

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK

02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair

06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency

10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning

14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction

19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return

22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia

29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns

42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes

55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns

56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting

01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Michael on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead

01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics

06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances

09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances

17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression

27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult

35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?

40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize?

45:31 - Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism

52:17 - The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance

01:01:50 - Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar

01:10:45 - Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold

01:16:21 - What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future

01:21:02 - Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Eric on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests

02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers

03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress

06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption

09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies

15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters

19:40 - The case for combining equities and trend following into one portfolio

21:37 - Eric explains the philosophy behind his multi asset approach

31:15 - Product design, allocator behavior and why diversification often fails in practice

40:44 - Simplicity versus complexity in systematic investing

46:58 - Why elegant models often fail in real world markets

57:05 - Sharpe ratios, diversification and combining multiple return streams

59:52 - Andrew introduces the idea of Contrarian Tactical Alpha

01:02:55 - Eric on algorithmic discipline and why trends are uncomfortable to follow

01:05:26 - Final thoughts on trend following, risk management and portfolio construction

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Danielle on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters

02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve

05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers

07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing?

10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy

17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s

23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability

29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook

37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt?

43:06 - Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention

45:56 - Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence?

49:59 - Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle?

51:22 - Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series

01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy

05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets

11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines

15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026

23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios

33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes

44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation

53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty

59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha

01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges

01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today’s AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow George on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing

03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing

04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing

06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s

09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction

12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns

13:25 - Inflation, commodities and building modern inflation hedges

19:33 - Detecting macro regimes using quantitative models

23:26 - The hardest part of systematic investing: trusting the process

27:00 - Covid, model failures and managing regime shifts in real time

30:07 - Portfolio protection, options strategies and volatility overlays

32:01- How AI and large language models are transforming quantitative research

40:02- Fiscal risks, inflation concerns and the changing rate environment

44:26- Simplicity versus complexity in quantitative model design

48:05 - Why markets evolve faster today and how models must adapt

51:08- Retail investors, meme stocks and market distortions

53:33- Emerging markets and where long term opportunities may exist

55:08 - The future of quant investing and the limits of AI hype

57:10 - George Patterson’s career advice for aspiring quants

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion

02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems

06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets

14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it

24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility

29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends

35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer

38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following

42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines

48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets

51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity

57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets

01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends

01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time

01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars.We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”!

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon

01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism

02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest

05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception

09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation

13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services

20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space capitalism

24:36 - The legal uncertainty around owning land and resources in space

32:23 - How Mars settlement could be financed through private ownership

42:49 - Asteroid mining, space resources and the business case beyond Earth

48:06 - Space tourism and why early innovation often starts with the wealthy

53:51 - How investors might think about the emerging space economy

58:27 - Why space capitalism is no longer science fiction

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the episode

01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility

03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026

06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies

10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?

15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS

17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies

24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades?

27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained

30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies

33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry?

37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money

40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets

44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios

47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution?

49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage

53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare

57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach

59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Hari Krishnan joins Niels and Cem for a deep exploration of what happens when markets become dominated by flows rather than fundamentals. Drawing on his new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm, Hari explains why rising passive ownership may weaken price discovery, amplify concentration in mega-cap stocks and create conditions for reflexive instability. The conversation expands far beyond indexing, touching on volatility targeting, leverage, dispersion, inflation, government intervention and the growing dependence of the global economy on rising asset prices. Along the way, Cem and Hari debate whether policymakers can continue stabilizing an increasingly fragile system, what could trigger a structural break, and how investors should think about positioning in a world where flows may matter more than fundamentals.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Hari on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Hari warns about a fragile financial system dependent on a handful of decision-makers

01:06 - Niels introduces Hari’s new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm

03:00 - Why passive investing may weaken the link between fundamentals and prices

08:40 - The key assumptions behind the model

12:49 - How passive adoption accelerated structural market changes

15:11 - Cem explains why markets may now drive the economy rather than reflect it

23:38 - Can policymakers control a complex financial system?

27:03 - How passive flows amplify mega-cap concentration

31:22 - The changing role of dispersion, volatility and positioning

41:04 - What the model suggests about instability at high passive ownership levels

46:21 - Why 2022 may have been a warning sign

51:55 - Inflation, government intervention and the limits of market control

55:33 - What could trigger a systemic break?

01:07:28 - Political and demographic pressures beneath the system

01:10:43 - Hari’s portfolio implications: stay long, hedge smartly and own inflation sensitivity

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

This week, we are joined by Yoav Git and Rob Croce from Fidelity Investments for a deep dive into trend following, portfolio construction and execution in modern markets. The conversation explores why crisis alpha may come more from beta timing than market selection, the logic behind betting against beta, and how quantitative investors think about diversification, carry and relative value strategies. Along the way, the trio discuss Japan’s rising bond yields, momentum investing, execution risk during crises and even how ChatGPT helped solve a 60-year-old mathematical problem. This is a technical but highly practical discussion about how systematic investors build robust portfolios in a changing macro environment.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn and read his paper.

Follow Yoav on Linkedin.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:57 - Rob Croce’s path from economics to managed futures and trend following

04:38 - Yoav on AI-assisted mathematics and solving a 60-year-old problem

06:14 - Rob on out-of-sample testing and learning from market structure

11:42 - Rising Japanese bond yields and the global bond market backdrop

12:39 - Momentum investing and the growing popularity of trend-based strategies

17:04 - Current trend following environment across equities, bonds and commodities

19:13 - “Betting Against Beta” and why low-beta portfolios may outperform

25:43 - The role of leverage aversion and diversification in factor investing

34:26 - Rob Croce’s paper: where crisis alpha really comes from

40:31 - Why beta timing drives much of trend following’s defensive behavior

47:46 - Can carry improve trend following without sacrificing crisis alpha?

51:51 - Execution algorithms, risk reduction and trading during crises

57:46 - Why correlation spikes matter for portfolio execution and liquidity

01:04:05 - Final thoughts and where to find Rob Croce’s research

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, we are joined by David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings, for a deep dive into the biggest macro questions shaping markets right now. David explains why central banks struggle to respond to supply shocks, why inflation expectations are more fragile than policymakers admit, and how frameworks like nominal GDP targeting could offer a more robust path forward. We explore the collision between geopolitical shocks and AI-driven productivity, the hidden consequences of quantitative easing, and the growing tension between monetary policy and fiscal sustainability. From stablecoins and the future of the dollar to the Fed’s balance sheet and financial system plumbing, this episode unpacks the forces quietly reshaping the global economy, and why policymakers may be less in control than we think.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow David on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Stablecoins, financial stability, and uncertain impact

01:00 - David Beckworth’s path into macroeconomics

05:43 - How central banks should respond to supply shocks

08:56 - Why policymakers struggle to separate supply vs demand

11:58 - Inflation expectations and post-COVID sensitivity

14:46 - Are central banks over-reliant on flawed inflation models?

18:49 - AI as a positive supply shock: hype vs reality

22:00 - Productivity booms, deflation, and policy challenges

25:11 - Kevin Warsh, AI optimism, and the Fed’s future direction

29:33 - QE, QT, and the long-term impact on financial markets

33:28 - The “ratchet effect” and why the Fed can’t shrink easily

37:59 - Liquidity: abundant or an illusion?

41:38 - Are markets addicted to central bank liquidity?

44:21 - Fiscal dominance and the long-term risk to central banks

53:54 - Stablecoins, dollar dominance, and global demand

59:10 - Private credit and the evolving financial system

01:00:49 - Books, learning, and building a career in macro

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series

01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends

06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions

09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure

13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers

16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks

26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes

37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk

46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort

51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities?

56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund

01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today

01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What does it take to become a true Market Wizard, and why do so many of them fail before they find their edge? In this special episode, Moritz Seibert sits down with Jack Schwager and George Coyle to discuss The Next Generation of Market Wizards, the sixth book in the series that began in 1989. Together, they explore how extraordinary traders are found, how their records are verified in an age of AI, and why many of the most remarkable returns still come from discretionary traders. From blown-up accounts and shorting small caps to the psychological cost of sitting in front of screens for 14 hours a day, this is a rare look at the craft, pressure, and persistence behind exceptional trading.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Why single trading systems rarely produce “wizard-level” returns

01:17 – Introduction to the new Market Wizards book

02:37 – George Coyle’s background and path to co-authoring

05:00 – What makes this new book different (focus on solo traders)

06:00 – How top traders are discovered

10:46 – Verifying extreme performance claims in the AI era

13:26 – The most surprising trait: repeated early failure

15:54 – New-generation strategies that break “classic” rules

19:02 – Timeless trading principles that still hold

21:16 – Why most market wizards are discretionary, not systematic

24:41 – Why individual quant systems rarely achieve extreme returns

26:53 – Listener question: systematic vs discretionary trading

30:17 – Personality traits of elite traders

32:21 – The hidden “cost” of being a top trader

35:50 – Can anyone become a market wizard?

38:47 – What’s changed in trading edges over time

41:53 – Preview of the next book (hedge fund traders)

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, we are joined by Philip Diehl, former Director of the United States Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, for a timely conversation about gold’s renewed role in a world shaped by inflation, geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and uncertainty around fiat currencies. Philip explains why gold’s recent rise is not simply a speculative move, but part of a broader shift in how governments, institutions, and individuals think about wealth preservation. From central bank buying and Chinese retail demand to Bitcoin, ETFs, physical coins, and the limits of the U.S. dollar system, this episode explores why gold is once again moving from the margins of portfolios toward the center of the macro conversation.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Philip on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why Philip Diehl believes investors should “buy the dip” in gold

01:14 - Philip’s career from public policy to the U.S. Mint

06:08 - What U.S. Money Reserve does and why physical gold matters

08:08 - The forces behind gold’s powerful multi-year rally

13:08 - Central bank buying, dollar risk, and portfolio diversification

19:05 - Why some central banks may sell gold during stress

22:18 - Chinese demand, cultural memory, and the role of retail buyers

28:32 - Why Philip does not see Bitcoin as “digital gold”

32:44 - Physical gold versus ETFs and the question of ownership

37:10 - How retail investors behave during gold bull markets

41:16 - Portfolio allocation and the changing case for gold

45:52 - Why Philip expects gold to outperform equities over the next decade

48:15 - Why today’s gold market is not a repeat of the 1970s

52:21 - Gold miners, production limits, and rising extraction costs

55:58 - Fort Knox, revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and political reality

59:24 - Lessons from Philip’s career and how to learn more about gold

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, we explore what it means to invest in a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). We discuss why geopolitical shocks... especially supply-driven ones... are creating persistent trends across markets, and why trend-following strategies are thriving despite strong equity performance. The conversation dives into how investors process information (or fail to), the limits of central bank responses to supply shocks, and why markets may not be fully pricing in current risks. Mark also shares new research comparing hedge fund strategies under different volatility regimes, highlighting why managed futures stand out as a robust diversifier. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on AI, replication strategies, and the growing role of narrative versus data in investment decision-making.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable

00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity

02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond

05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty

07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension

10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context

14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI

18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha

22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update)

24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage

28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk?

31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence

34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions

38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends

40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation

43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes

47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers

51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions

55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models

58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design

01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies

01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In this episode Kevin Coldiron is joined by bestselling author Joe Studwell who speaks about his new book How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Development Frontier. We discuss why many of our perceptions about Africa are wrong - why one big problem has been too few people, not too many and why the continent isn’t as resource-rich as we think. Joe talks us through some surprising success stories - like Rwanda’s emulation of Singapore and Botswana’s success in avoiding “the resource curse”. This is the time to begin researching and understanding the opportunities in a continent that has more land mass than the US, China and India combined and will eventually be home to the majority of the world’s young people.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 - Introduction to the episode and guest

02:04 - Why the book was written and initial motivation

05:50 - Outsider perspective and reactions in Africa

07:22 - The core idea: population density and development

08:22 - Why Africa’s growth lagged historically

14:23 - Population growth and changing economic potential

15:39 - Colonialism in Africa vs Asia

20:14 - Land, agriculture, and development differences

23:55 - Rise of private sector and food production

25:57 - Resources and the limits of extractive growth

29:56 - Botswana and managing resource wealth

36:21 - Rwanda’s development model and governance

44:41 - Ethnic dynamics and future stability

50:24 - China’s role and manufacturing potential

56:04 - Investing in Africa and long term outlook

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine a market environment where politics, geopolitics and liquidity are becoming harder to separate. Cem argues that recent market strength is not just a reaction to better news, but part of a broader effort to manage risk, support collateral values and prepare for deeper geopolitical stress. From rising military spending and the Strait of Hormuz to treasury demand, QIS growth, AI and the next inflation wave, this conversation is about what happens when markets stop being passive observers and become tools in a larger strategic contest.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:01 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

00:00:35 - Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage

00:01:51 - Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality

00:04:15 - Fed independence, politics and credibility

00:07:45 - The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies

00:12:52 - Trend following update and current market performance

00:15:23 - Framing the disconnect between markets and reality

00:20:09 - Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning

00:25:08 - Are markets being actively managed

00:34:51 - The real geopolitical battle and the role of China

00:40:32 - What investors may be underpricing

00:52:55 - Why markets can rise despite growing risks

00:55:56 - Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths

00:58:04 - Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook

01:02:16 - AI, deflation and the political response

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting

00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion

00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance

00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics

00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion

00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege

00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation

00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences

00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens

00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s

00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law

00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses

00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets

01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto

01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop

04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing

10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension

13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles

17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results

20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown

25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed

27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers

31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing

43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction

52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities

01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies

01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain

01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career

03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure

06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge

08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time

14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets

17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants

20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior

24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis

32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies

39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge

40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading

51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume

56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises

03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones

04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences

06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape

10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs

12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions

16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026

21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies

22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies

25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance

32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction

39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading

52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta

57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products

01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints

01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs

01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stress, and how capacity constraints shape portfolio construction. The conversation also examines how markets are selected, how execution differs from traditional CTAs, and why understanding who trades a market may matter more than any backtest.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and guest

02:04 - Why focus only on commodity markets

03:59 - The myth of diversification through more markets

05:01 - Structural differences within commodity markets

06:22 - Why financial markets behave as one in crises

07:57 - Capacity constraints and portfolio construction

11:18 - Adding and removing markets from the portfolio

13:28 - How to identify truly alternative markets

16:40 - Trend quality vs trend quantity explained

19:11 - Structural drivers behind commodity trends

20:01 - Case study European carbon and trend persistence

26:59 - Execution as an edge in systematic trading

32:42 - Reducing trading costs through patience

40:09 - Why investors allocate to alternative commodity strategies

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Harry on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and episode framing

01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility

07:29 - Trend following performance through Q1

09:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds

11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained

14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies

18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend

21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights

30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures

35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency

42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction

49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior

53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks

01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies

01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunities

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion

02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability

04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom

06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making

09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems

12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives

17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict

19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure

22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities

25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension

29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints

33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world

39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk

48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the series

01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments

01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning

04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes

06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly

09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality

14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down

17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty

24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints

27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic

37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations

41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets

49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained

56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future?

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution

01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie

03:48 - How the book Genesis came together

09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths

17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand

20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world

25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI

27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society

33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI

40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence

50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight

58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop

01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty

03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns

08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets

11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance

14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility

18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update

27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models

38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies

48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows

55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns

01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive and active strategies, diversification beyond equities, and the growing role of private markets. Dan also shares insights on governance, investment philosophy, and why humility is essential when making asset allocation decisions in complex global markets.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Dan on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:33 - Introduction to the global macro series

02:18 - Introducing Dan Mikulskis and his background

03:38 - From actuarial science to investment consulting

05:45 - The history and growth of People’s Partnership

08:18 - Auto-enrolment and the rise of large UK pension schemes

11:12 - What it means to operate as an asset owner

13:24 - Building the investment team and ownership model

18:34 - Scale advantages in manager relationships and partnerships

23:24 - How large asset owners select external managers

28:58 - Balancing core partnerships and specialist managers

34:25 - Macro insights and quarterly investment forums

37:34 - Portfolio construction and diversified growth strategies

43:19 - Concentration risk and global equity allocations

50:44 - Factor investing and style diversification

53:30 - The role of hedge funds and alternative strategies

56:08 - Total portfolio approach in pension investing

58:56 - Measuring performance and evaluating investment teams

01:03:18 - Career advice for future CIOs

Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil market shocks to deeper questions about feedback loops, participant behavior, and regime shifts in financial markets. The conclusion is striking: trend following does not rely on fragile patterns. It aligns with fundamental structural properties embedded in how markets actually evolve.

-----

JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!

- CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

02:08 - Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike

06:10 - Why calm markets can hide explosive potential

11:47 - How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy

15:29 - Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions

22:15 - A changing regime that may favor trend following

24:43 - The research behind The Fractals of Finance

25:25 - Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent

31:22 - Why trends are structural rather than random patterns

36:25 - Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected

41:12 - Divergent vs convergent market participants

45:29 - The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting

49:33 - Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets

55:33 - Why trend following aligns with market structure

59:02 - Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime