Filtra per genere
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
- 1615 - IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market
00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt
03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history
07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market
12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability
17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset
24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries
28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?
32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born
39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds
44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying
48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income
49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity
55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve
57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 16 Sep 2026 - 1h 03min - 1614 - SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break
02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds
05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends
07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?
14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies
17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets
20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far
23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?
31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?
36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy
40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling
44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading
52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following
55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same
01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 - 1h 08min - 1613 - GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Matt on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged
01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed
05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s
11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?
15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?
18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?
21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust
26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise
31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news
33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium
37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances
42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world
48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China
52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen
58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 - 1h 02min - 1612 - SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar
01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust
06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency
10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity
12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update
16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds
19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer
21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk
25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process
29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate
31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following
38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?
43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following
51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets
58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity
01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020
01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 - 1h 14min - 1611 - GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth
Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else
01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth
04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve
09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?
16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean
18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy
25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?
31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system
35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?
40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality
47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits
57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations
59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt
01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets
01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 - 1h 24min - 1610 - SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar
01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters
07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question
08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention
12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed
16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply
18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?
22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning
24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function
30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields
34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime
41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime
49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification
52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns
01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 - 1h 06min - 1609 - IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth
In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow David on LinkedInand Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors
01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing
06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional
10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets
13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market
14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history
18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles
23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?
28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven
29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters
32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines
34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm
39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work
42:33 - Why investors have never had it better
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 26 Aug 2026 - 47min - 1608 - SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections
01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets
07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk
10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes
13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks
14:51 - August trend following performance
16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends
20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity
27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?
31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market
36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage
41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?
47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following
52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers
56:49 - The “podification” of trend following
59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles
01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 - 1h 14min - 1607 - ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle
Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Mike on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing
04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world
07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed
12:09 The return of fiscal activism
15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital
19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?
22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates
25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble
29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime
33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification
37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters
42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis
46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved
48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta
52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio
56:47 How AI could transform investment management
01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investors
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 19 Aug 2026 - 1h 04min - 1606 - SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania
02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment
06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow
08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026
10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing
14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience
17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance
22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape
24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs
29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage
32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control
37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?
42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs
50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha
55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading
01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks
01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs
01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 15 Aug 2026 - 1h 21min - 1605 - ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau
Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Charles on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing
03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing
09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary?
12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners
18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble?
21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity
25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation
28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies
32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve
40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook
43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers
48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities
51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive?
57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today
58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investors
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 - 1h 02min - 1604 - SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Harry on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments
09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review
18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance
22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience
30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research
36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters
46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks
56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios
58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules
01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following
01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies
01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughts
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 08 Aug 2026 - 1h 19min - 1603 - ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai
Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking
01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing
04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations
08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations
11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment
15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model
20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing
24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model
26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities
31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio
38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio
43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha
45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers
51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures
57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investors
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 05 Aug 2026 - 1h 01min - 1602 - SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan
The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge
08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems
18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets
26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility
31:38 - Where major market moves really come from
39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing
46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk
51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers
56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility
01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk
01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios
01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk
01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex markets
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 01 Aug 2026 - 1h 59min - 1601 - IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed
Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Tyler on LinkedInand Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks
00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history
06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age
13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions
18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think
21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows
27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history
30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions
35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions
39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger
44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend
47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008
51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks
56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 29 Jul 2026 - 1h 01min - 1600 - SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation
06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence
13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment
20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers
28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following
34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies
37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors
44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets
50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum
58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested?
01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors?
01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investing
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 25 Jul 2026 - 1h 10min - 1599 - OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh
Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction
01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners
09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following
11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend
16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important
21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors
25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency
30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities
40:41 - New ideas around leverage and capital efficiency
42:37 - Kelly sizing, drawdowns and maximizing long term returns
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 22 Jul 2026 - 46min - 1598 - SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git
Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations
06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns
12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning
18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals
25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure
36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets
39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained
47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from
55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour
01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy
01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investing
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 18 Jul 2026 - 1h 08min - 1597 - GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg
More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics
09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets
15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading
21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets
31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected
37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications
43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals
48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months
58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally
01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities
01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom
01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 15 Jul 2026 - 1h 15min - 1596 - SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne
Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing
05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading
12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers
15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story
20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy
30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following
38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following
46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure
49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled
55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading
01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend following
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 11 Jul 2026 - 1h 03min - 1595 - GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley
The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Brendan on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny
00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history
06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics
11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money
17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States
26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency
29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation
34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance
40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs
44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful
50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter
52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 08 Jul 2026 - 55min - 1594 - SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan
Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries
03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets
07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy
09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs
15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism
19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system
30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage
37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different
45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury
50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months
52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst
57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 04 Jul 2026 - 1h 01min - 1593 - GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren
While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on one of the most consequential periods in modern history.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Pippa on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect
01:05 - Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes
03:11 - Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury
06:40 - Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks
12:01 - Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement
22:17 - The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership
30:49 - Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace
39:38 - Nuclear energy, AI and the race toward technological abundance
45:48 - Populism, inequality and whether AI will widen or close the wealth gap
55:32 - How societies can prepare for an AI driven future
58:10 - Greenland, the Arctic and the strategic battle for space infrastructure
01:04:20 - Pippa's father, diplomacy and the lessons that shaped her worldview
01:09:28 - Non human intelligence, AI and the profound questions facing humanity
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 01 Jul 2026 - 1h 19min - 1592 - SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan
05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994
10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns
14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough
20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year
23:10 - What defines a market regime change
27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities
39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers
48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes
56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress
01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain markets
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Jun 2026 - 1h 08min - 1591 - IL50: Why Central Banks Are Losing Control of Inflation ft. Manoj Pradhan
Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Manoj on LinkedInand Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks
03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates
06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing
12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem
17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models
20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates
27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages?
37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging
45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored”
50:40 - The tension between inflation control and debt stability
54:49 - Could high rates trigger a crisis and force policy reversal?
58:28 - Final thoughts on demographics, debt, and the future of inflation
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Jun 2026 - 1h 01min - 1590 - SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver
Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK
02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair
06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency
10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning
14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction
19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return
22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia
29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns
42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes
55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns
56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting
01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 20 Jun 2026 - 1h 12min - 1589 - GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Michael on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead
01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics
06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances
09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances
17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression
27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult
35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?
40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize?
45:31 - Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism
52:17 - The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance
01:01:50 - Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar
01:10:45 - Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold
01:16:21 - What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future
01:21:02 - Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Jun 2026 - 1h 23min - 1588 - SI404: When Trend Following Meets Equities ft. Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer
Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Eric on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests
02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers
03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress
06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption
09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies
15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters
19:40 - The case for combining equities and trend following into one portfolio
21:37 - Eric explains the philosophy behind his multi asset approach
31:15 - Product design, allocator behavior and why diversification often fails in practice
40:44 - Simplicity versus complexity in systematic investing
46:58 - Why elegant models often fail in real world markets
57:05 - Sharpe ratios, diversification and combining multiple return streams
59:52 - Andrew introduces the idea of Contrarian Tactical Alpha
01:02:55 - Eric on algorithmic discipline and why trends are uncomfortable to follow
01:05:26 - Final thoughts on trend following, risk management and portfolio construction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Jun 2026 - 1h 07min - 1587 - UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth
As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Danielle on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters
02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve
05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers
07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing?
10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy
17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s
23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability
29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook
37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt?
43:06 - Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention
45:56 - Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence?
49:59 - Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle?
51:22 - Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Jun 2026 - 53min - 1586 - SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski
Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series
01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy
05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets
11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines
15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026
23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios
33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes
44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation
53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty
59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha
01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges
01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Jun 2026 - 1h 24min - 1585 - ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson
How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today’s AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow George on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing
03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing
04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing
06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s
09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction
12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns
13:25 - Inflation, commodities and building modern inflation hedges
19:33 - Detecting macro regimes using quantitative models
23:26 - The hardest part of systematic investing: trusting the process
27:00 - Covid, model failures and managing regime shifts in real time
30:07 - Portfolio protection, options strategies and volatility overlays
32:01- How AI and large language models are transforming quantitative research
40:02- Fiscal risks, inflation concerns and the changing rate environment
44:26- Simplicity versus complexity in quantitative model design
48:05 - Why markets evolve faster today and how models must adapt
51:08- Retail investors, meme stocks and market distortions
53:33- Emerging markets and where long term opportunities may exist
55:08 - The future of quant investing and the limits of AI hype
57:10 - George Patterson’s career advice for aspiring quants
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Jun 2026 - 1h 01min - 1584 - SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan
What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion
02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems
06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets
14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it
24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility
29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends
35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer
38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following
42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines
48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets
51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity
57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets
01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends
01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time
01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 May 2026 - 1h 30min - 1583 - IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann
On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars.We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon
01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism
02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest
05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception
09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation
13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services
20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space capitalism
24:36 - The legal uncertainty around owning land and resources in space
32:23 - How Mars settlement could be financed through private ownership
42:49 - Asteroid mining, space resources and the business case beyond Earth
48:06 - Space tourism and why early innovation often starts with the wealthy
53:51 - How investors might think about the emerging space economy
58:27 - Why space capitalism is no longer science fiction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 May 2026 - 1h 01min - 1582 - SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas
The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the episode
01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility
03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026
06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies
10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?
15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS
17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies
24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades?
27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained
30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies
33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry?
37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money
40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets
44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios
47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution?
49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage
53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare
57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach
59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 23 May 2026 - 1h 01min - 1581 - GM101: When Passive Breaks the Market ft. Hari Krishnan & Cem Karsan
Hari Krishnan joins Niels and Cem for a deep exploration of what happens when markets become dominated by flows rather than fundamentals. Drawing on his new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm, Hari explains why rising passive ownership may weaken price discovery, amplify concentration in mega-cap stocks and create conditions for reflexive instability. The conversation expands far beyond indexing, touching on volatility targeting, leverage, dispersion, inflation, government intervention and the growing dependence of the global economy on rising asset prices. Along the way, Cem and Hari debate whether policymakers can continue stabilizing an increasingly fragile system, what could trigger a structural break, and how investors should think about positioning in a world where flows may matter more than fundamentals.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Hari warns about a fragile financial system dependent on a handful of decision-makers
01:06 - Niels introduces Hari’s new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm
03:00 - Why passive investing may weaken the link between fundamentals and prices
08:40 - The key assumptions behind the model
12:49 - How passive adoption accelerated structural market changes
15:11 - Cem explains why markets may now drive the economy rather than reflect it
23:38 - Can policymakers control a complex financial system?
27:03 - How passive flows amplify mega-cap concentration
31:22 - The changing role of dispersion, volatility and positioning
41:04 - What the model suggests about instability at high passive ownership levels
46:21 - Why 2022 may have been a warning sign
51:55 - Inflation, government intervention and the limits of market control
55:33 - What could trigger a systemic break?
01:07:28 - Political and demographic pressures beneath the system
01:10:43 - Hari’s portfolio implications: stay long, hedge smartly and own inflation sensitivity
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 May 2026 - 1h 13min - 1580 - SI400: When Crisis Alpha Hides in Plain Sight ft. Yoav Git & Rob Croce
This week, we are joined by Yoav Git and Rob Croce from Fidelity Investments for a deep dive into trend following, portfolio construction and execution in modern markets. The conversation explores why crisis alpha may come more from beta timing than market selection, the logic behind betting against beta, and how quantitative investors think about diversification, carry and relative value strategies. Along the way, the trio discuss Japan’s rising bond yields, momentum investing, execution risk during crises and even how ChatGPT helped solve a 60-year-old mathematical problem. This is a technical but highly practical discussion about how systematic investors build robust portfolios in a changing macro environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn and read his paper.
Follow Yoav on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:57 - Rob Croce’s path from economics to managed futures and trend following
04:38 - Yoav on AI-assisted mathematics and solving a 60-year-old problem
06:14 - Rob on out-of-sample testing and learning from market structure
11:42 - Rising Japanese bond yields and the global bond market backdrop
12:39 - Momentum investing and the growing popularity of trend-based strategies
17:04 - Current trend following environment across equities, bonds and commodities
19:13 - “Betting Against Beta” and why low-beta portfolios may outperform
25:43 - The role of leverage aversion and diversification in factor investing
34:26 - Rob Croce’s paper: where crisis alpha really comes from
40:31 - Why beta timing drives much of trend following’s defensive behavior
47:46 - Can carry improve trend following without sacrificing crisis alpha?
51:51 - Execution algorithms, risk reduction and trading during crises
57:46 - Why correlation spikes matter for portfolio execution and liquidity
01:04:05 - Final thoughts and where to find Rob Croce’s research
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 16 May 2026 - 1h 07min - 1579 - GM100: Central Banks in the Dark: Inflation, AI, and the Limits of Control ft. David Beckworth
Today, we are joined by David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings, for a deep dive into the biggest macro questions shaping markets right now. David explains why central banks struggle to respond to supply shocks, why inflation expectations are more fragile than policymakers admit, and how frameworks like nominal GDP targeting could offer a more robust path forward. We explore the collision between geopolitical shocks and AI-driven productivity, the hidden consequences of quantitative easing, and the growing tension between monetary policy and fiscal sustainability. From stablecoins and the future of the dollar to the Fed’s balance sheet and financial system plumbing, this episode unpacks the forces quietly reshaping the global economy, and why policymakers may be less in control than we think.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow David on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Stablecoins, financial stability, and uncertain impact
01:00 - David Beckworth’s path into macroeconomics
05:43 - How central banks should respond to supply shocks
08:56 - Why policymakers struggle to separate supply vs demand
11:58 - Inflation expectations and post-COVID sensitivity
14:46 - Are central banks over-reliant on flawed inflation models?
18:49 - AI as a positive supply shock: hype vs reality
22:00 - Productivity booms, deflation, and policy challenges
25:11 - Kevin Warsh, AI optimism, and the Fed’s future direction
29:33 - QE, QT, and the long-term impact on financial markets
33:28 - The “ratchet effect” and why the Fed can’t shrink easily
37:59 - Liquidity: abundant or an illusion?
41:38 - Are markets addicted to central bank liquidity?
44:21 - Fiscal dominance and the long-term risk to central banks
53:54 - Stablecoins, dollar dominance, and global demand
59:10 - Private credit and the evolving financial system
01:00:49 - Books, learning, and building a career in macro
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 13 May 2026 - 1h 04min - 1578 - SI399: AI, Inflation and the Portfolio That Refuses to Sit Still ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series
01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends
06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions
09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure
13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers
16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks
26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes
37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk
46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort
51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities?
56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund
01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today
01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 09 May 2026 - 1h 11min - 1577 - OI22: Inside the Next Generation Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager & George Coyle
What does it take to become a true Market Wizard, and why do so many of them fail before they find their edge? In this special episode, Moritz Seibert sits down with Jack Schwager and George Coyle to discuss The Next Generation of Market Wizards, the sixth book in the series that began in 1989. Together, they explore how extraordinary traders are found, how their records are verified in an age of AI, and why many of the most remarkable returns still come from discretionary traders. From blown-up accounts and shorting small caps to the psychological cost of sitting in front of screens for 14 hours a day, this is a rare look at the craft, pressure, and persistence behind exceptional trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Why single trading systems rarely produce “wizard-level” returns
01:17 – Introduction to the new Market Wizards book
02:37 – George Coyle’s background and path to co-authoring
05:00 – What makes this new book different (focus on solo traders)
06:00 – How top traders are discovered
10:46 – Verifying extreme performance claims in the AI era
13:26 – The most surprising trait: repeated early failure
15:54 – New-generation strategies that break “classic” rules
19:02 – Timeless trading principles that still hold
21:16 – Why most market wizards are discretionary, not systematic
24:41 – Why individual quant systems rarely achieve extreme returns
26:53 – Listener question: systematic vs discretionary trading
30:17 – Personality traits of elite traders
32:21 – The hidden “cost” of being a top trader
35:50 – Can anyone become a market wizard?
38:47 – What’s changed in trading edges over time
41:53 – Preview of the next book (hedge fund traders)
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Thu, 07 May 2026 - 45min - 1576 - GM99: Gold, Trust, and the Return of Real Assets ft. Philip Diehl
Today, we are joined by Philip Diehl, former Director of the United States Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, for a timely conversation about gold’s renewed role in a world shaped by inflation, geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and uncertainty around fiat currencies. Philip explains why gold’s recent rise is not simply a speculative move, but part of a broader shift in how governments, institutions, and individuals think about wealth preservation. From central bank buying and Chinese retail demand to Bitcoin, ETFs, physical coins, and the limits of the U.S. dollar system, this episode explores why gold is once again moving from the margins of portfolios toward the center of the macro conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Philip on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Philip Diehl believes investors should “buy the dip” in gold
01:14 - Philip’s career from public policy to the U.S. Mint
06:08 - What U.S. Money Reserve does and why physical gold matters
08:08 - The forces behind gold’s powerful multi-year rally
13:08 - Central bank buying, dollar risk, and portfolio diversification
19:05 - Why some central banks may sell gold during stress
22:18 - Chinese demand, cultural memory, and the role of retail buyers
28:32 - Why Philip does not see Bitcoin as “digital gold”
32:44 - Physical gold versus ETFs and the question of ownership
37:10 - How retail investors behave during gold bull markets
41:16 - Portfolio allocation and the changing case for gold
45:52 - Why Philip expects gold to outperform equities over the next decade
48:15 - Why today’s gold market is not a repeat of the 1970s
52:21 - Gold miners, production limits, and rising extraction costs
55:58 - Fort Knox, revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and political reality
59:24 - Lessons from Philip’s career and how to learn more about gold
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 06 May 2026 - 1h 05min - 1575 - SI398: Navigating a VUCA World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, we explore what it means to invest in a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). We discuss why geopolitical shocks... especially supply-driven ones... are creating persistent trends across markets, and why trend-following strategies are thriving despite strong equity performance. The conversation dives into how investors process information (or fail to), the limits of central bank responses to supply shocks, and why markets may not be fully pricing in current risks. Mark also shares new research comparing hedge fund strategies under different volatility regimes, highlighting why managed futures stand out as a robust diversifier. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on AI, replication strategies, and the growing role of narrative versus data in investment decision-making.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable
00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity
02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond
05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty
07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension
10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context
14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI
18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha
22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update)
24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage
28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk?
31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence
34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions
38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends
40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation
43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes
47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers
51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions
55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models
58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design
01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies
01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 02 May 2026 - 1h 07min - 1574 - IL48: The Misunderstood Economics of Africa ft. Joe Studwell
In this episode Kevin Coldiron is joined by bestselling author Joe Studwell who speaks about his new book How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Development Frontier. We discuss why many of our perceptions about Africa are wrong - why one big problem has been too few people, not too many and why the continent isn’t as resource-rich as we think. Joe talks us through some surprising success stories - like Rwanda’s emulation of Singapore and Botswana’s success in avoiding “the resource curse”. This is the time to begin researching and understanding the opportunities in a continent that has more land mass than the US, China and India combined and will eventually be home to the majority of the world’s young people.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Joe on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01 - Introduction to the episode and guest
02:04 - Why the book was written and initial motivation
05:50 - Outsider perspective and reactions in Africa
07:22 - The core idea: population density and development
08:22 - Why Africa’s growth lagged historically
14:23 - Population growth and changing economic potential
15:39 - Colonialism in Africa vs Asia
20:14 - Land, agriculture, and development differences
23:55 - Rise of private sector and food production
25:57 - Resources and the limits of extractive growth
29:56 - Botswana and managing resource wealth
36:21 - Rwanda’s development model and governance
44:41 - Ethnic dynamics and future stability
50:24 - China’s role and manufacturing potential
56:04 - Investing in Africa and long term outlook
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 29 Apr 2026 - 1h 00min - 1573 - SI397: The Market Isn’t Free Anymore, It’s Being Managed ft. Cem Karsan
Today Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine a market environment where politics, geopolitics and liquidity are becoming harder to separate. Cem argues that recent market strength is not just a reaction to better news, but part of a broader effort to manage risk, support collateral values and prepare for deeper geopolitical stress. From rising military spending and the Strait of Hormuz to treasury demand, QIS growth, AI and the next inflation wave, this conversation is about what happens when markets stop being passive observers and become tools in a larger strategic contest.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00:01 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
00:00:35 - Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage
00:01:51 - Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality
00:04:15 - Fed independence, politics and credibility
00:07:45 - The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies
00:12:52 - Trend following update and current market performance
00:15:23 - Framing the disconnect between markets and reality
00:20:09 - Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning
00:25:08 - Are markets being actively managed
00:34:51 - The real geopolitical battle and the role of China
00:40:32 - What investors may be underpricing
00:52:55 - Why markets can rise despite growing risks
00:55:56 - Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths
00:58:04 - Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook
01:02:16 - AI, deflation and the political response
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 25 Apr 2026 - 1h 11min - 1572 - UGO11: Fiscal Dominance, Dollar Power, and the Politics Driving Markets ft. Lyn Alden
Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting
00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion
00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance
00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics
00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion
00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege
00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation
00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences
00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens
00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s
00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law
00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses
00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets
01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto
01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 22 Apr 2026 - 1h 11min - 1571 - SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop
04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing
10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension
13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles
17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results
20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown
25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed
27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers
31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing
43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction
52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities
01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies
01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 18 Apr 2026 - 1h 20min - 1570 - TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel
Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain
01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career
03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure
06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge
08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time
14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets
17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants
20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior
24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis
32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies
39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge
40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading
51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume
56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 15 Apr 2026 - 1h 05min - 1569 - SI395: Finding Alpha in the Strait of Chaos ft. Andrew Beer
Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises
03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones
04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences
06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape
10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs
12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions
16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026
21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies
22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies
25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance
32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction
39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading
52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta
57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products
01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints
01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs
01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 11 Apr 2026 - 1h 16min - 1568 - OI21: The Hidden Edge in Markets No One Is Trading ft. Tom Babbedge
What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stress, and how capacity constraints shape portfolio construction. The conversation also examines how markets are selected, how execution differs from traditional CTAs, and why understanding who trades a market may matter more than any backtest.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the episode and guest
02:04 - Why focus only on commodity markets
03:59 - The myth of diversification through more markets
05:01 - Structural differences within commodity markets
06:22 - Why financial markets behave as one in crises
07:57 - Capacity constraints and portfolio construction
11:18 - Adding and removing markets from the portfolio
13:28 - How to identify truly alternative markets
16:40 - Trend quality vs trend quantity explained
19:11 - Structural drivers behind commodity trends
20:01 - Case study European carbon and trend persistence
26:59 - Execution as an edge in systematic trading
32:42 - Reducing trading costs through patience
40:09 - Why investors allocate to alternative commodity strategies
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 08 Apr 2026 - 47min - 1567 - SI394: The Quarter That Tested Every Trend Follower ft. Katy Kaminski & Harry Moore
Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Harry on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and episode framing
01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility
07:29 - Trend following performance through Q1
09:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds
11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained
14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies
18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend
21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights
30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures
35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency
42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction
49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior
53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks
01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies
01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunities
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 04 Apr 2026 - 1h 13min - 1566 - GM98: Powerlessness Is Rising and Nobody Is Ready ft. Peter Atwater
What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Peter on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion
02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability
04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom
06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making
09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems
12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives
17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict
19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure
22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities
25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension
29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints
33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world
39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk
48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 01 Apr 2026 - 1h 13min - 1565 - SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git
Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the series
01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down
17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets
49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 28 Mar 2026 - 1h 05min - 1564 - IL47: The AI Revolution That Will Redefine What It Means to Be Human ft. Craig Mundie
In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution
01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie
03:48 - How the book Genesis came together
09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths
17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand
20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world
25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI
27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society
33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI
40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence
50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight
58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 25 Mar 2026 - 1h 00min - 1563 - SI392: The Hidden Cracks in Systematic Strategies No One Talks About ft. Nick Baltas
Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop
01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty
03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns
08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets
11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance
14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility
18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update
27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models
38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies
48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows
55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns
01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 21 Mar 2026 - 1h 04min - 1562 - ALO34: Building an Asset Owner Mindset in Modern Pension Investing ft. Dan Mikulskis
In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive and active strategies, diversification beyond equities, and the growing role of private markets. Dan also shares insights on governance, investment philosophy, and why humility is essential when making asset allocation decisions in complex global markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Dan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:33 - Introduction to the global macro series
02:18 - Introducing Dan Mikulskis and his background
03:38 - From actuarial science to investment consulting
05:45 - The history and growth of People’s Partnership
08:18 - Auto-enrolment and the rise of large UK pension schemes
11:12 - What it means to operate as an asset owner
13:24 - Building the investment team and ownership model
18:34 - Scale advantages in manager relationships and partnerships
23:24 - How large asset owners select external managers
28:58 - Balancing core partnerships and specialist managers
34:25 - Macro insights and quarterly investment forums
37:34 - Portfolio construction and diversified growth strategies
43:19 - Concentration risk and global equity allocations
50:44 - Factor investing and style diversification
53:30 - The role of hedge funds and alternative strategies
56:08 - Total portfolio approach in pension investing
58:56 - Measuring performance and evaluating investment teams
01:03:18 - Career advice for future CIOs
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 18 Mar 2026 - 1h 08min - 1561 - SI391: Why Trend Following Works... the Evidence ft. Richard Brennan
What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil market shocks to deeper questions about feedback loops, participant behavior, and regime shifts in financial markets. The conclusion is striking: trend following does not rely on fragile patterns. It aligns with fundamental structural properties embedded in how markets actually evolve.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
02:08 - Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike
06:10 - Why calm markets can hide explosive potential
11:47 - How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy
15:29 - Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions
22:15 - A changing regime that may favor trend following
24:43 - The research behind The Fractals of Finance
25:25 - Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent
31:22 - Why trends are structural rather than random patterns
36:25 - Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected
41:12 - Divergent vs convergent market participants
45:29 - The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting
49:33 - Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets
55:33 - Why trend following aligns with market structure
59:02 - Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 14 Mar 2026 - 1h 06min - 1560 - ALO33: The Psychology Behind Better Asset Allocation ft. Aoifinn Devitt
In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pensions, hedge fund advisory, and private wealth, Aoifinn reflects on how institutional lessons translate to individual investors. The conversation explores the role of diversification, the evolving case for private markets, and the limitations of labels such as hedge funds, factors, or alternative assets. Along the way, they discuss the behavioral traps that influence allocators, the challenges of manager selection, and why outcome based investing may offer a clearer framework for navigating uncertain markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Aoifinn on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 - Introducing Aoifinn Devitt and her background
03:14 - From corporate law to a career in finance
05:16 - Institutional vs private wealth portfolio construction
09:47 - How macro regimes influence asset allocation
12:53 - Rethinking the endowment model and private markets
15:32 - Private credit and diversification challenges
18:13 - Total portfolio approach vs traditional allocation
21:27 - Bonds, equities, and changing correlations
27:52 - Concentration risk and the dominance of mega cap stocks
37:33 - The evolving role of hedge funds in portfolios
42:35 - Gold, commodities, and inflation protection
46:23 - Behavioral biases and long term market cycles
57:35 - Advice for young professionals entering finance
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 11 Mar 2026 - 1h 00min - 1559 - SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne
Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives
03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices
10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies
15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio
23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets
25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference
37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed
46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift
50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios
58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices
01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 07 Mar 2026 - 1h 10min - 1558 - UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe
Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before.
They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection.
This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now
03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works
10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?
16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat
20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error
26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change
33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals
39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history
45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate
48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges
52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 04 Mar 2026 - 1h 05min - 1557 - SI389: The Market Is Pinned, But Risk Is Growing ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signal about a broader topping process. They also examine the growing influence of AI narratives, political incentives, and global tensions, not as isolated shocks but as forces building pressure within the system. The result is a discussion about how markets evolve when structure, policy, and sentiment begin to move out of sync.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Cem on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds
03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation
03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression
05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation
07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise
09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter
11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April
17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences
22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns
32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility
45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later
50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control
57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 28 Feb 2026 - 1h 02min - 1556 - IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts
In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US corporate history, Off Wall Street published a report recommending the shares be sold. The success of this call made Mark and Off Wall Street synonymous with original and rigorous research. We talk to Mark about his unusual personal background, how being a hippie in Berkeley in the 1960s prepared him for identifying overvalued companies two decades later. He explains why questionable accounting and high valuations are the “symptoms, not the disease” and compares today’s markets with those of the Dotcom era. His new book, Off Wall Street How To Win At Short Selling By Betting Against The Crowd was just released in February 2026.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:41 - Introducing Mark Roberts, Off Wall Street, Enron, and the book
03:35 - An unconventional path: French literature, skepticism, and early life choices
07:40 - The first “short sale”: selling a failing steel business and learning risk firsthand
11:10 - Fidelity, Peter Lynch, and the origins of independent short research
16:48 - Founding Off Wall Street and the first major short thesis (TCBY)
27:34 - How short ideas are built, tested, and abandoned without sunk-cost bias
30:56 - Business models vs accounting: why accounting issues are symptoms, not causes
40:11 - Timing, crowd psychology, and surviving being early on a short
47:08 - Why short selling is dangerous for individuals and crowded trades fail
52:44 - Markets today vs the dot-com era, passive flows, and portfolio construction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 25 Feb 2026 - 1h 02min - 1555 - SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne
Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Mark on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction & market check-in
02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities
04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess
07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows
10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing
13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets
15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters
21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)
31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained
41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt machine
44:51 – Inflation, asset bubbles & fiscal theory
56:45 – Machine learning, regime shifts & why trend following survives
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 21 Feb 2026 - 1h 03min - 1554 - GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen
The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Steen on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen
03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions
06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals
08:06 - Davos as a macro catalyst
12:11 - The K shaped U.S. economy
14:50 - State capitalism and fiscal dominance
17:30 - What could invalidate the bearish dollar view
21:37 - Fed independence and policy credibility
24:49 - AI productivity or structural disinflation
27:56 - The modern Soviet analogy
31:21 - Democracy, debt and slow breakdown
33:18 - What could finally trigger market stress
37:08 - Commodities and tangible asset repricing
47:02 - Gold as a debasement signal
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 18 Feb 2026 - 53min - 1553 - SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 14 Feb 2026 - 1h 13min - 1552 - GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios
A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Ian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar
00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer
01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change
04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking
06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export
09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem
12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset
14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”
18:32 - Trump-era economic ideology: the coalition, “333,” and running the economy hot
23:06 - The Fed under Warsh: rates, QT, balance sheet politics, and liquidity consequences
28:21 - Portfolio reality: slow rotation, hidden tech exposure, and where diversification breaks
41:22 - Gold, reserves, and the end of inflation targeting as a defining shift
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 11 Feb 2026 - 1h 01min - 1551 - SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver
Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 - MAN Group paper on market selection
58:36 - What investors really want from trend following
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK: SI386 - A Trend Following Deep Dive:Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 07 Feb 2026 - 1h 08min - 1550 - UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt
Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting
02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins
04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game
06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis
08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal
11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories
15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles
18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working
21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets
24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations
30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care
33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery
34:26 - The sell America narrative and capital flows
40:05 - Common knowledge and reflexivity
45:44 - Regime change, multipolarity, and narrative dominance
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 04 Feb 2026 - 1h 01min - 1549 - SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski
Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective
02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves
04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts
07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification
09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals
12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026
15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits
20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following
23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion
31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs
40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes
43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden driver
50:41 - Crisis alpha and regime change
59:53 - Geopolitical risk and future research themes
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI385 - AlphaSimplexLINK SI385 - MeketaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 31 Jan 2026 - 1h 04min - 1548 - GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Dario on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and context
02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations
05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny
08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects
11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure
17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair
26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative
35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate
39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk
46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic myths
49:46 - Europe’s fiscal pivot and growth outlook
53:28 - Defense spending as an industrial catalyst
58:13 - China’s rebalancing challenge
01:00:29 - Optimism, overheating, and how the cycle may end
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 28 Jan 2026 - 1h 03min - 1547 - SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git
In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and series context
01:08 - Inflation back on the radar
02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives
06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation
08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves
10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions
11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends
17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem
18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns
22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block
27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead
30:04 - What commodity trend really means
33:35 - Institutional resistance to commodities
43:51 - Allocation stability versus macro forecasting
45:23 - Fixed income trends, carry, and autocorrelation
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 24 Jan 2026 - 1h 01min - 1546 - IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas
Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Alex on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price
01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas
03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics
08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money
10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control
15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality
17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail
22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion
25:18 - The winner’s curse and common value auctions
30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding
33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing
36:50 - Limits to arbitrage and hidden risks
39:32 - Why mispricing persists even without confusion
43:26 - Why behavioral economics stays outside textbooks
46:53 - What makes decisions difficult and why it matters
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 21 Jan 2026 - 54min - 1545 - SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome
01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026
03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation
07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets
09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention
10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following
12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025
15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year
18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design
23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead
31:08 - Institutional views on trend following
40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research
50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior
56:35 - What theory explains about trend robustness
59:00 - Closing thoughts and next episode
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 17 Jan 2026 - 59min - 1544 - GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth
As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism
00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context
02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas
08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime
15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions
18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway
23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards
29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left response
35:42 - Aging, health care, migration and the politics of who does the caring
40:43 - Inflation myths, central bank limits and lessons from recent shocks
45:13 - Britain’s broken growth model, deindustrialization and the London problem
48:01 - Industrial policy, defence, housing and what a real project state would do
53:14 - Trump’s hemispheric vision, hydrocarbons, and a world of regional satrapies
59:03 - Dollar power, cheaper currency strategy and fragile growth built on tech valuations
01:02:33 - Long term outlook, risks, and the books that still explain the mess we are in
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 14 Jan 2026 - 1h 07min - 1543 - SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan
The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026
03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following
08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist
12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning
14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery
17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following
23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking
28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now
40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden
49:54 - Prediction versus participation
53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility
01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control
01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 10 Jan 2026 - 1h 08min - 1542 - GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White
William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow William on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time
01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime
03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure
07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support
12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences
13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis
18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability
19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks
26:40 - What happens when trust in central banks erodes
35:51 - AI optimism and the risk of large scale malinvestment
39:44 - Lessons from financial history and false starts
41:08 - Why economic models failed to see this coming
48:32 - The dollar, fragmentation, and global currency shifts
57:56 - Europe’s opportunity and its unresolved risks
01:03:24 - Complexity, politics, and why forecasting breaks down
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 07 Jan 2026 - 1h 05min - 1541 - SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)
In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with our 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and recap of the year end roundtable format
02:05 - Introducing AI in systematic investing and total portfolio approaches
04:00 - Will TPA meaningfully increase allocations to CTAs or just rebrand 60/40
06:30 - Practical uses of AI in research, coding and client communication
08:50 - Process stability in changing regimes and the temptation to “fix” models after pain
12:00 - When, if ever, model changes are justified versus pure overfitting
16:00 - What really causes CTA drawdowns and why “nothing happening” is so costly
20:00 - Communicating long and shallow drawdowns to committees that want simple villains
24:00 - High volatility and leveraged trend products for the retail and ETF audience
28:00 - Capital efficiency, portable alpha and how higher rates change the game
32:00 - Is dispersion in CTAs healthy diversification or a barrier to broader adoption
36:30 - Outrageous predictions for 2026 in rates, equities, vol and trend following
41:00 - Final reflections, investor takeaways and invitation for listener questions
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 03 Jan 2026 - 1h 03min - 1540 - IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano
In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable
00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing
01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI
02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens
06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy
07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity
10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away
12:58 - Blocker 1: energy constraints and the race for firm power
15:17 - Where investment opportunities emerge in power and grid resilience
17:43 - Blocker 2: foundational industry data gaps and Moravec’s paradox
22:00 - Skilled trades as a bottleneck and a long term opportunity
24:34 - Blocker 3: agent to human coordination and walled gardens
29:04 - Early agent marketplaces and trust mechanisms
34:41 - The Aquarius Economy as a framework for future societal structure
42:09 - Outlier groups, human agency and implications for investors
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 31 Dec 2025 - 1h 02min - 1539 - SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)
Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to structured products, gold, and crypto, plus the liquidity, reflexivity, and selection challenges that follow when everyone reaches for the same diversifier.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
02:24 - Setting the agenda for the year-end group discussion
06:04 - Return dispersion and the shock around Liberation Day
10:41 - Market selection versus trend speed as performance drivers
15:17 - Volatility adjustment and why mid-speed models struggled
21:11 - The rapid growth of non correlated assets
26:40 - Liquidity limits and reflexive effects of large inflows
31:23 - Is dispersion healthy or a hurdle for allocators
37:17 - Investor behavior versus strategy outcomes
42:56 - Are model design choices ever truly obvious
46:22 - Objectives, factor exposure, and what investors really buy
50:49 - Dispersion as differentiation or classification problem
57:07 - Evaluating managers in a world of randomness
01:02:02 - How much data is enough to judge performance
01:11:05 - Closing remarks and preview of part two
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Dec 2025 - 1h 12min - 1538 - OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King
Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Doug on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background
04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities
07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven
09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades
10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity
13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie
15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading
18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals
20:23 - Concentration, themes, and risk limits
22:34 - Risk budgets, drawdowns, and volatility control
26:35 - Margin stress, squeezes, and market dysfunction
30:43 - Defining trades in oil and nickel
35:54 - Linking physical trading to hedge fund insight
43:00 - Discipline, noise, and surviving as a commodity trader
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Dec 2025 - 47min - 1537 - SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan
Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets
02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels
04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile
06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator
11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality
16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification
21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning
23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure
28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events
31:06 - Asymmetric opportunities in gold, FX, and bond volatility
37:17 - Populism, inequality, and long cycle market behavior
45:31 - Why 60/40 is a product of a falling rate era
54:47 - Key lessons from 2025 and structural market shifts
01:07:32 - Political cycles, midterms, and forward looking risks
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 20 Dec 2025 - 1h 10min - 1536 - GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle
In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Gary on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions
00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion
01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives
02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders
04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it
07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes
08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term
10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump 2.0
14:27 - The economic agenda redefining tariffs, reshoring and political constituencies
17:17 - Manufacturing limits, automation and long term structural realities
21:11 - Tariffs, tax politics and the competing factions within the Republican Party
21:50 - Deregulation, AI, Silicon Valley realignment and state influence
26:34 - The affordability crisis and political expectations around prices
31:23 - Prospects for Democrats in 2026 and shifting electoral dynamics
59:32 - A global lens on rising nationalism, new hegemons and the future of the EU
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Dec 2025 - 1h 10min - 1535 - SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series
00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance
02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut
03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals
06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty
08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models
11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals
13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets
16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility
19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation
22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets
28:07 - Bubble dynamics, leverage and wealth effects
36:51 - Credit markets, AI investment and systemic risk
41:07 - Momentum, trend following and persistent market behavior
54:36 - Total portfolio approach and adaptive asset allocation
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Dec 2025 - 1h 02min - 1534 - TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg
Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda
04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence
09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation
14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification
19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression
25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha
30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why BlackRock entered the ETF trend space
35:58 - Breadth, capacity and why market selection matters more than cocoa
41:12 - Defensive alpha explained using a credit lens on equities and crisis behaviour
46:27 - Execution, implementation alpha and using BlackRock’s liquidity river
51:39 - Constraints of wrappers, leverage limits and designing strategies for ETFs
56:54 - Growth of liquid alternatives, 50 30 20 and replacing the old 60 40 mindset
01:02:10 - Equity concentration, big tech, AI and the need for uncorrelated return streams
01:07:32 - Whole portfolio thinking, total portfolio approach and final takeaways
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Dec 2025 - 1h 13min - 1533 - SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne
Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week
01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets
03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure
05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?
06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to
08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap
11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances
12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain
13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs
21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape
29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?
33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios
38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework
47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers
53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing
56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees
01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem
01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Dec 2025 - 1h 08min - 1532 - ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little
Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Joe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”
00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners
01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author
05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime
10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects
13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance
16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge
20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from deflation
24:54 - Role reversal in 2025 and why future Asian performance must be earnings led
27:22 - Debt, deficits and fiscal dominance, from UK gilts to French OATs and US Treasuries
31:34 - Steeper curves and rising term premia, how the bond market can “murder” the cycle
32:26 - Rethinking 60/40, weaker bond diversification and the case for “diversifying diversifiers”
35:32 - Hedge funds, macro and why emerging markets may now be structurally less fragile
37:13 - Can EM really decouple, and what India versus China tells us about country effects
41:59 - Dollar overvaluation, policy preference for weakness and the fading of the dollar smile
47:27 - Fed succession, populism, and why 2 percent inflation will not feel like a ceiling
51:23 - Gold’s rise, stock bond correlation and the search for genuine risk mitigators
53:53 - Investor sentiment, nervous equilibrium and how institutions are repositioning risk
58:00 - Ten year return assumptions and constructing multipolar, all weather portfolios
01:02:04 - Book recommendations, learning macro and closing reflections
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Dec 2025 - 1h 05min - 1531 - SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer
In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday
01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40
03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios
05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs
08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future
09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback
10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles
12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”
16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really being delivered
18:16 - Targeting “space beta” plus cost savings: is complexity in CTAs adding or destroying value?
22:14 - Indexing the replication strategy and using swaps: Simplify’s new "low" headline fee ETF built on Andrew’s index
30:49 - The fee and cost debate: headline fees, trading costs, swaps and what investors should really ask
34:33 - Implementation costs, incentive fees and tax efficiency versus simple fee labels
45:08 - A better story for managed futures: from black box trend to “cloudy crystal ball”
51:22 - How trend taps local information: “someone knows something” and prices as detectors
58:03 - Takeaways from the Stockholm roundtable: short vs long term, exotic markets and heterogeneity
01:01:07 - Alpha-beta separation, core CTA beta vs high-conviction managers and where the space is heading
01:03:44 - Closing thoughts: civilized disagreement, common mission and why every portfolio needs this exposure
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 29 Nov 2025 - 1h 06min - 1530 - IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird
In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mike on Xand read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and setup
00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction
00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset
00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model
00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance
00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography
00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of mortgage finance
00:28:31 - Lazy banking and the limits of innovation
00:35:17 - Dead capital, human potential, and access to credit
00:39:37 - China’s land machine and the politics of stasis
00:46:37 - Evergrande, reallocation, and what “collapse” really means
00:52:28 - Singapore’s experiment: broad ownership, stable prices
00:58:17 - Can others follow Singapore’s path?
00:59:33 - Closing reflection
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 26 Nov 2025 - 1h 00min - 1529 - SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK
01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?
03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective
04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle
09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing
11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends
13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from
18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing
25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone
27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term trend
32:10 - Why trend following struggles on single assets and very fast timeframes
34:07 - Abraham’s question: what Rob would do differently after a decade live
41:05 - Carlo’s question: static vs dynamic sizing, skew and volatility targeting
46:07 - Rebalancing frequency, buffering, and asymmetric volatility risk
50:49 - Dario’s question: sentiment indicators, skew and what Rob actually uses
53:10 - Andreas’ question: ATR vs standard deviation and daily vs weekly data
56:29 - Stops, intraday execution and combining slow trend with fast mean reversion
59:27 - CalPERS adopts the total portfolio approach: what changes and why it matters
01:08:12 - Boxes, sleeves and why CTAs never fit neatly anywhere
01:11:55 - Could TPA be a game changer for trend following allocations?
01:14:19 - ChatGPT, consultants and the future of portfolio construction language
01:16:18 - Closing disclaimers and how to send in future questions
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 22 Nov 2025 - 1h 17min - 1528 - UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge
Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.
00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.
00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.
00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.
00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.
00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.
00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.
00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.
00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.
00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.
00:37:48 – Euro FX vol: the paradox of cheap risk.
00:44:07 – Demographics and the quiet mathematics of decline.
00:47:46 – The “Hunger Games” for global savings begins.
00:52:57 – Lessons from 1997: FX and gold vol as survival trades.
00:56:11 – The anti-fiat portfolio—Bitcoin, gold, and long vol.
01:01:13 – Closing reflection on resilience as freedom.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 19 Nov 2025 - 1h 04min - 1527 - SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 -Introduction and catching up from Boston
02:00 -Life without economic data and what markets really need
04:20 -Price as the only truth and the limits of official data
05:45 -CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend
08:20 -AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity
10:30 -Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change
12:40 -Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds
15:10 -Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year
20:00 -Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe
24:10 -Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently
26:20 -Liberation Day: three consecutive shock days and what CTAs learned
33:40 -Economic trend, price trend and the blurry line with global macro
39:00 -Crisis alpha, convexity and when fundamentals stop mattering
44:50 -The rise of alternatives and why “core” portfolios are changing
48:20 -How the industry can tap private wealth and model portfolios
52:00 -Trend in target retirement funds and the sequence of returns problem
56:40 -Looking ahead, volatility forecasting and next week’s guest
58:25 -Wrap up, disclosures and final reflections
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 15 Nov 2025 - 59min - 1526 - GM91: Inside China’s Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus
China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow George on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Opening and disclaimer
02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus
06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly
11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base
16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing
22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects
25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs
27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt
29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences
33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics
38:01 – Belt & Road 2.0: fewer loans, more influence
42:56 – Capital controls and the ceiling on RMB internationalization
49:00 – Hong Kong’s evolving financial role
50:54 – CCP control after the plenum; succession optics
53:47 – Taiwan scenarios and risk contours
55:51 – Plateau vs. precipice: what could still break
57:54 – Career advice for macro and China analysis
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 12 Nov 2025 - 1h 00min - 1525 - SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git
What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion
00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent
00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November
00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions
00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”
00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms
00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity
00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?
00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds
00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how flows follow prices
00:23:48 – Policy and moral hazard implications of inelastic markets
00:26:07 – How elasticity differences shape trend-following speeds
00:29:57 – Should all markets use the same trading models?
00:36:19 – “Best Strategies for Inflationary Times” revisited
00:38:30 – Why the paper predicted 2022 so accurately
00:42:03 – The nature of trend following: slow losses, fast wins
00:44:24 – Inflation mandates and the overlooked role of CTAs
00:48:33 – Why TIPS and real estate can fail as inflation hedges
00:50:05 – Examining “Quantifying Backtest Overfitting” in QIS
00:53:59 – The 60% haircut between backtests and live returns
00:56:00 – How CTAs add value beyond bank QIS products
01:00:40 – QIS as a low-cost, capital-efficient exposure
01:01:15 – Closing thoughts and next week’s preview
01:01:59 – Outro and disclaimer
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 08 Nov 2025 - 1h 02min - 1524 - GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction
03:12- The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47- Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33- Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57- The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40- Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”
49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply
55:48 - Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles
01:00:19 - Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets
01:07:23 - Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 05 Nov 2025 - 1h 11min - 1523 - OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz
Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 -Introduction to part 2
02:57 -Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota
06:46 -The best trader the world has ever seen
17:13 -The optimal bed size
21:24 -What Druz learned from working with Seykota
24:42 -Key lessons for managing drawdowns
26:54 -How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota
31:58 -Living with Ed Seykota
34:16 -Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Mon, 03 Nov 2025 - 41min - 1522 - SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas
As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick
01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone
02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 2025
04:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds
06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback
07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts
08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion
10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones
11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside
14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats
18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge funds
21:30 - What QIS really provides: rules, access, and efficiency
28:05 - The four pillars of product design (research, clients, tech, markets)
30:20 - Why thousands of indices exist (customization, wrappers)
33:22 - Delta-1 vs. options on indices: when each makes sense
36:58 - Vol targeting trade-offs for optionality and recovery
38:55 - Built for scale, but with capacity discipline
42:00 - Innovating without data-mining traps
47:12 - Crowding: congestion, vol carry, and trend mechanics
56:35 - Wrap-up and what to expect next week
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 01 Nov 2025 - 58min - 1521 - OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz
Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Read more about David.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz
13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation
19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?
23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy
28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?
37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets
41:03 - Managing money in trend following
43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?
45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility
50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the ride?
55:20 - Put your affection on portfolio selection
58:19 - Mastering systems
59:50 - Druz' approach to market selection
01:08:33 - Sizing signals optimally
01:12:43 - A new way of running an investing business
01:19:24 - Creating a personalized portfolio with an edge
01:28:36 - Why Tactical is no longer a business
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 29 Oct 2025 - 1h 36min - 1520 - SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series
00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich
00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk
00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules
00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following
00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens
00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust
00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends
00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade
00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions
00:35:48 – Volatility ≠ risk: compression warehouses latent tail risk
00:40:08 – Engineer robustness, don’t optimize to statistics
00:49:41 – From micro impulses to structure: feedback builds trends
00:50:06 – Patterns vs structure; outliers as phase transitions
00:55:00 – Ensemble design: behavioral (not correlational) diversification
01:03:05 – Survival first: closed-equity sizing in a non-ergodic world
01:05:43 – Niels’ counterpoints: dynamic sizing, flows, and “cutback” debate
01:12:20 – Rich: why he frames it as outlier hunting
01:16:30 – Wrap-up, programming notes, and disclaimer
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 25 Oct 2025 - 1h 17min - 1519 - UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan
Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and introductions
01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI
03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades
14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies
21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity
32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations
39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers
44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility
56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts
01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimers
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 22 Oct 2025 - 1h 07min - 1518 - SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne
Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:32 - Introduction to our special guest
01:57 -How did the economy end up the way it is today?
09:15 -Is it just a cycle?
19:46 -What is the end game?
23:47 -A short masterclass on skew and convexity
31:45 -How trend following has changed over time
39:18 -Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?
45:19 -How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs
53:04 -Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities
56:06 -When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 18 Oct 2025 - 1h 01min - 1517 - GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Read more about Maurice here.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld
05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?
11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?
18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar
27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?
29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?
34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?
36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically
39:16 - A fork in the road for the Fed
47:19 - From problem to crisis
51:32 - Is Obstfeld optimistic about AI?
53:06 - The end of the neoliberal era - what comes next?
58:00 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 15 Oct 2025 - 1h 01min - 1516 - SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS -CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:34 -What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 -Is this time different for gold?
14:13 -Just a gold story?
16:38 -Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?
19:45 -The Fed has to change
26:08 -An overbearing uncertainty
30:25 -Our thoughts on meme stocks
35:30 -Not every innovations are good
39:02 -How narratives impact how products are sold
46:21 -Industry performance update
49:39 -Alternative vs traditional assets
01:00:43 -Every CTA is a short term trader
01:05:59 -The power of seeing the connection between markets
01:14:32 -What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 11 Oct 2025 - 1h 16min
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