Nordea Markets fra innsiden

Rentemøtene før påske bød ikke på de store overraskelsene fra sentralbankene, og vi tror fortsatt det vil drøye lengre før rentekuttene kommer.

Hverken Norges Bank eller Fed kommer til å signalisere at de har noen hastverk med å kutte rentene neste uke. Etter påske blir det derimot mere action når Feds kvantiative innstrammingen omsider begynner å bite på markedene.

Prisveksten for USA i januar ble mye høyere enn ventet og sår tvil om inflasjonen er under kontroll. Hva betyr dette for pengepolitikken?

Bedre makrodata fra USA har gjort at markedet nå priser to færre rentekutt i år, også i Norge. Kan det være at vi ikke får noen rentekutt i 2024 heller?

Tar Fed seieren over inflasjonen på forskudd? Amerikansk økonomi trenger neppe store rentekutt med det første, og norsk økonomi klarer seg veldig bra med uendret rente. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Fortsatt høy prisvekst og svak kronekurs tvinger frem en renteheving fra Norges Bank i desember. Med høye lånebehov og god økonomisk vekst, vil nok rentene i USA også holde seg oppe og smitte over på norske langrenter. Hør sjeføkonom Kjetil Olsen og sjefstrateg Lars Mouland i podcasten «Nordea Markets fra innsiden». Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Nordea-ekspertene diskuterer hva som er i vente fra sentralbankmøtene denne uken. Hør sjeføkonom Kjetil Olsen og sjefstrateg Lars Mouland i podcasten «Nordea Markets fra innsiden». Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Mye lavere inflasjon enn ventet kan få Norges Bank til å avlyse rentehevingen i desember. Men, veien til første rentekutt er fortsatt lang. Behovet for en lang periode med høye renter i utlandet gir begrenset handlingsrom for Norges Bank. Hør Nordeas sjeføkonom Kjetil Olsen og sjefstrateg Lars Mouland i podcasten «Nordea Markets fra innsiden». Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Beskjeden fra sentralbankene i forrige uke var klar: Rentetoppen blir høyere og det blir lenge til rentene settes ned igjen. Hør Nordeas sjeføkonom Kjetil Olsen og sjefstrateg Lars Mouland i podcasten «Nordea Markets fra innsiden». Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Sentralbankene er enige om at den langsiktige nøytralrenten falt mye etter finanskrisen og har blitt liggende der siden. Vi synes imidlertid det er gode grunner til å anta at nøytralrentene har steget de siste årene og at det kan forklare hvorfor økonomien har tålt renteoppgangen så godt. I denne episoden snakker vi blant annet om hvor renter egentlig kommer fra, sentralbankenes modeller for realrente og hvorfor Japans tapte tiår kan lære oss mye om hva som er riktig rentenivå.

Både markedet og sentralbanken venter at rentetoppen er nær, men de har tatt feil tidligere. Det vil også ta tid før rentekuttene kommer, og det er ikke sikkert de blir så store denne gang. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Sommeren har gitt oss sterkere kronekurs og brattere rentekurs. Vi diskuterer hvorfor og ser samtidig på hva vi kan vente oss utover høsten. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Sentralbanken satt i dag opp renten med 50bps og varsler ytterligere 50bp renteheving. Høyere renter må til for å tøyle høy prisvekst og svak kronekurs. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Markedene jubler over at gjeldstaket i USA er løftet, men effekten blir snart mindre penger i banksystemet og press ned på aktivapriser. Norges Bank får kritikk for å svekke krona, men kanskje er det lavere valutasikring på pensjonsmidlene som har skylda? Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Svakere krone, høyere lønnsvekst og inflasjon gjør at vi nå tror Norges Bank må heve renta til 4%. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Bankuroen i USA ser ut til å blåse over uten altfor store konsekvenser, og rentene kryper oppover igjen. Her hjemme er det fullt fokus på lønnsoppgjøret som ser ut til å lande høyere enn hva Norges Bank hadde sett for seg. Sammen med fortsatt svak kronekurs, ligger det an til ytterligere opprevideringer av Norges Banks rentebane. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Markedet priser rentekutt, mens sentralbankene vil heve renta videre. Hvem har rett? Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Vi diskuterer hva som ligger bak de store svingningene vi har opplevd i rentemarkedet siden i høst.

Vi har hevet våre renteprognoser og venter nå styringsrenter på 3.5% til sommeren. I dagens podcast går vi gjennom hvorfor vi trenger høyere renter. Hør Nordeas sjeføkonom Kjetil Olsen og sjefstrateg Lars Mouland analyserer de siste trendene i norsk og internasjonal økonomi. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Markedet venter rentekutt allerede senere i år. Vi diskuterer hvordan dette synet sammenfaller med økonomiske data, både her hjemme og i USA. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

2022 var dominert av overraskende høy prisvekst og dertil kraftige rentehevinger. I år har sentralbankene til hensikt å se på at veksten dabber av og arbeidsmarkedene svekker seg samtidig som rentene skal holdes på den stramme siden. Markedet vil nok være uenige, og vi går dermed et spennende år i møte. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Hverken Norges Bank, ECB og FED vil ta seieren på forskudd i kampen mot inflasjonen. Vi oppsummerer forrige ukes sentralbankmøter i årets siste podcast. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Hvorfor har rentene fortsatt å falle til tross for sterke makrotall, og hva har vi i vente fra Norges Bank neste uke? Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Virker de store markedsutslagene etter forrige ukes amerikanske inflasjonstall rimelige? Og hva skal Norges Bank gjøre med den høye norske prisveksten? Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Både Fed og Norges Bank har hatt rentemøter de siste 24 timene. Vi tar en titt på hvilken beskjed sentralbankene ga og diskuterer hvorfor rentehevingene nå kommer i litt mindre steg. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Stadige inflasjonsoverraskelser og få tegn til at hverken bedrifter eller husholdninger kutter tilbake gjør at vi nå løfter våre prognoser for amerikanske renter. Vi ser på hvilke konsekvenser det får i denne podcasten. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Rentene har svingt mye de siste to ukene. Både britisk finanspolitikk og norske oljeskatter må ta sin del av skylda. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Mange sentralbanker er i ilden denne uken. Riksbanken åpnet i dag ballet med 100bp renteheving, hva vil Norges Bank finne på torsdag? Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Haukete sentralbanker må ta skylda for renteoppgangen den siste måneden. I tillegg til dagens høye prisvekst har de begynt å bekymre seg for at økende rivalisering mellom stormaktene, aldrende befolkning og miljøkriser kan gi vedvarende høyere pris- og lønnspress, og dermed høyere renter de kommende tiårene. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Vi diskuterer hvorfor Norges Bank har fått så hastverk med å heve rentene og hvilke konsekvenser høyere renter vil ha for norske husholdninger. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Lange markedsrenter har falt gjennom sommeren. Vi diskuterer hva som er årsaken og hvorfor vi mener markedet tar feil denne gangen. All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Tilliten til egen økonomi stuper samtidig som norske bedrifter går sjeldent godt. Hva betyr det for Norges Bank? Og, kan vi vente oss ytterligere oppgang på amerikanske børser?

Vi ser på hva som må til for å få Norges Bank til å heve raskere eller langsommere enn de har lagt opp til og vi tar også en tur innom den siste børsuroen.

Hva betyr lønnsoppgjøret for rentesettingen, hvorfor er rentekurven i USA invertert og hvordan påvirker Norges Banks salg av kroner Nibor? Alt dette får du svar på i dagens episode.

Norges Bank kommer til å løfte rentebanen betydelig på torsdagens rentemøte til tross for økt usikkerhet fra krigen i Ukrania. Høyere pris- og lønnsvekst samt høyere renter i utlandet er hovedårsaken til at det nå trengs høyere renter her hjemme.

Vi diskuterer de økonomiske konsekvensene av situasjonen i Ukraina og hvorfor vi ikke er overrasket over at rentene ikke har falt mer.

For to måneder siden var en renteøkning i år usannsynlig ifølge ECB. Nå vil de ikke lenger utelukke det og ser en klar oppsiderisiko for inflasjonen framover. ECB er foreløpig siste sentralbank til å endre mening. Snuoperasjonen fra verdens sentralbanker har vært markant, rentene har steget men det er mer i vente.

I dagens podcast tar vi for oss noen av innvendingene mot at sentralbankene trenger å sette opp rentene.

Den amerikanske sentralbanken ønsker nå tydelig å stramme til pengepolitikken. For å få til det, må lange renter høyere. Dersom markedet ikke klarer dette på egenhånd vil sentralbanken hjelpe til ved å selge obligasjoner. Rentene har steget en del på starten av året, men renteoppgangen er langt ifra ferdig.

Bekymring for prisveksten har blitt viktigere enn å demme opp for smitteverntiltak for stadig flere sentralbanker. Både Norges Bank, FED, ECB og Bank of England strammet til pengepolitikken forrige uke.

Norske data har nok en gang overrasket tydelig positivt siden forrige rentemøte og taler i seg selv for et tydelig løft i rentebanen neste uke. Betydelig høyere usikkerhet om den nye virusvarianten trekker i motsatt retning, men vil mest sannsynlig ikke føre til mer enn en utsetting av rentehevingene.

Høyere renteforventninger utenlands betyr mere enn økte smittetall når Norges Banks lager nye renteprognoser om tre uker. Vi tar også en titt på hvorfor sentralbanken plutselig sluttet å kjøpe kroner før vi avslutter med hva som ligger bak de nye signalene om raskere nedtrapping av støttetiltak fra flere FED-medlemmer.

Sentralbankene har blitt tydelig mere usikre i lys av den stadig høyere prisveksten. De sliter med å kommunisere klart og tydelig, noe som gir økt volatilitet i markedet. Vi ser på hva som ligger bak den høye prisveksten og om den kommer til å vare.

Økt fokus på inflasjon ligger bak renteoppgangen de siste ukene, og dette temaet dør neppe med det første. Vi tar også en titt på hvorfor Norges Banks annonsering om valutakjøp kommende fredag kan påvirke kronekursen.

Høyere oljepris oppveier effektene av sterkere krone for norsk økonomi. Vi tar også en titt på renteoppgangen som er drevet frem av økende fokus på høyere prisvekst.

Det var bare Norges Bank som satt opp rentene forrige uke, men både FED og BOE tok et stort skritt mot første renteheving.

Vi venter nok en opprevidering av rentebanen fra Norges Bank neste uke.

Sommerens fall i lange renter skyldes stort sett tekniske forhold i det amerikanske statsobligasjonsmarkedet og i liten grad frykt for at økt smitte vil stoppe gjeninnhentingen. Norges Bank vil derfor legge mere vekt på svakere kronekurs som gir økt inflasjon og konkurransekraft for norsk næringsliv. Vi får rentehevinger på løpende bånd, med start i september.

Norges Bank sendte i dag et tydelig signal om at rentene skal heves hvert kvartal det neste året.

Arbeidsledigheten har falt kraftig hver uke siden Norge begynte å åpne opp, og den er nå langt lavere enn Norges Bank antok i mars. Dette er det tydeligste tegnet så langt på at «forholdene i økonomien normaliseres». Vi venter derfor at sentralbanken på rentemøtet om to uker sender en tydelig beskjed om at første renteheving kommer i september. Foruten høyere styringsrente, vil også Niborpåslaget øke utover høsten. Dette vil gjøre norske kroner mere attraktive og vi venter at krona styrker seg

Denne uken oppsummerer vi hovedbudskapet i vår ferske Nordea Economic Outlook. Vi er blitt tryggere på at sommeren vil markere et definitivt vendepunkt for både pandemien og økonomien. Det tror vi Norges Bank også kommer til å bli, og levere en første renteheving i september.

Denne uken tar vi en titt på tilbuds- og etterspørselsbalansen i markedet for amerikanske statsobligasjoner. Underskuddene på det amerikanske statsbudsjettet vil bli stort det neste årene, samtidig skal FED trappe ned sine støttekjøp av statsobligasjoner og private husholdninger spare mindre. Hvem skal finansiere den amerikanske staten, og til hvilken rente? Vi kommenterer også fallet i Nibor, som vi tror vil fortsette, og gir en kort oppdatering på vaksinestatusen.

Planen for gjenåpningen her hjemme er lagt og vi ser at det begynner å lysne i land som har kommet lenger i vaksineringen. Sterke nøkkeltall fra USA viser at økonomien henter seg inn raskt i takt med at flere blir vaksinert. Samtidig er stimulansepakkene historisk store. Er det en risiko for at det kan bli for mye av det gode?

Norges bank ser for seg å heve renten i andre halvår men deretter å gå forsiktig frem Hvordan stemmer dette med markedets forventninger og hva skal til for at sentralbanken ombestemmer seg.

Det ligger an til en kraftig opprevidering av rentebanen på Norges Banks rentemøte neste uke. Vi tar også en titt på renteoppgangen de siste ukene og spør om den amerikanske sentralbanken vil gripe inn.

De siste ukene har lange renter både her hjemme og internasjonalt steget brått. Bedringen i økonomien er noe av forklaringen, men hastigheten skyldes også tekniske forhold i markedet som vi går inn på i dagens podcast. Selv om en korreksjon av en såpass kraftig renteoppgang kan virke ganske trolig, bør man også ta med seg at rentenivået som prises inn fremdeles er forholdsvis lavt.

Krona har styrket seg og lange renter har kommet ytterligere opp de siste par ukene. Kan vi vente mer av det samme framover?

Uroen vi så i forrige uke var trolig knyttet til spesielle forhold i aksjemarkedet og ikke et uttrykk for at markedet har mistet troen på en normalisering av økonomiene. Det har ikke vi heller, vi tror fortsatt sommeren vil markere et vendepunkt for både pandemien og økonomien.

Norges Bank har rentemøte uten nye anslag denne uken, men våre beregninger indikerer at de ville ha kommet med nok en oppjustering av rentebanen. Markedsprisingen er mer avventende og det er derfor godt rom for de litt lengre rentene å komme videre opp.

Året har startet godt for markedene til tross for høye smittetall. Demokratisk kontroll av kongress åpner for større finanspolitiske stimuli, og start av vaksineprogrammene gjør at flere har normalisering i kikkerten.

En vaksine er på plass tidligere enn antatt og Norges Bank vil derfor mest trolig fremskynde første renteøkning noe nå på torsdag. Men de vil gå forsiktig fram, usikkerheten er fortsatt stor og de ønsker nok å få bekreftelser på at smitteverntiltakene kan fjernes før de tar den helt ut.

Utsikter til at størstedelen av befolkningen i Norge kan være vaksinert til sommeren betyr at økonomien kan hente seg inn i løpet av neste år. Det får også konsekvenser for Norges Banks pengepolitikk og løfter renteutsiktene.

Flere gode vaksiner og omfattende vaksineprogrammer som starter allerede om et par uker gjør at mange land raskere kan skrote smitteverntiltak og få økonomien tilbake på fote. Dette gir mindre behov for den svært ekspansive pengepolitikken og kan dermed gi høyere renter.

Krona har styrket seg og rentene er høyere de siste par ukene. Er det Biden's seier i presidentvalget eller nyheten om vaksine som står bak?

Økningen i smittetallene preger markedene, særlig aksjemarkedene. Rentemarkedet ser ut til å være mer upåvirket. Kan Bidens skatteøkninger og fokus på minstelønn kanskje være bedre nytt for renter enn aksjer, eller er bunnen nådd for lange renter?

En avklaring av det amerikanske presidentvalget vil kunne redusere usikkerheten i markedet og dermed bidra til sterkere NOK. Mangelen på en avklaring kan gi kaos og svak kronekurs. Vi diskuterer også hvilken påvirkning Biden kan ha på amerikansk politikk, økonomisk vekst og inflasjon.

Forrige ukes statsbudsjett ble av mange omtalt som overraskende siden oljepengebruken allerede neste år er nede på handlingsregelen. Men er det egentlig så overraskende at arbeidstakere som kommer tilbake på jobb ikke trenger ledighetstrygd fra NAV? Vi diskuterer også effekten det amerikanske valget kan ventes å ha på lange renter.

Ledigheten faller og aktiviteten i økonomien tar seg opp, pessimistene peker på at smitten også tar seg opp, men dødeligheten er lav. Usikkerhet og risiko burde bety stort utfallsrom på begge sider av markedets forventningsverdi vi tenker allikevel at markedet nå legger for stor vekt på nedsiden for de kommende månedene.

Vi ser nærmere på forrige ukes meldinger fra rentemøtet i Norges Bank, videre også tilførsel av ny likviditet og utsiktene for en sterkere krone etter de siste ukenes ras. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Norges Bank legger frem ny renteprognose neste uke, vi ser nærmere på hva man kan forvente seg fra den kanten. Den siste tiden har vi også sett et fall i aksjemarkedet uten at det har endret lange renter noe særlig, hvordan henger det sammen og hva kan vi vente fremover.

Vi har sett litt nærmere på sammenhengen mellom NOK og aksjemarkedet og funnet aktørgruppe i markedet som vi mener forklarer sammenhengen bedre enn at NOK bare er en risikoaktiva.

Den amerikanske sentralbanken kom med nye signaler i forrige uke, vi ser nærmere på hva det betyr. Vi diskuterer også hvorvidt norske kroner i markedet prises som en ubrukelig aktiva.

Norsk økonomi går bedre enn de fleste andre økonomier. Selv om renteøkninger ikke er rett rundt hjørnet, kommer de trolig tidligere i Norge enn i andre land. Rentemarkedet tar det lite inn over seg, og det er ikke så uvanlig at renteendringer undervurderes av markedet.

Både den norske og den amerikanske sentralbanken uttrykker skepsis til å kutte styringsrenten under null. Vi diskuterer fenomenet «negativ rente» nærmere og ser det opp mot prisingen i dagens rentemarked.