Forward Guidance

Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath? This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to run. We also explore financials vs. staples flashing caution, why Fed hikes are the biggest risk to AI, and how the Iran blockade and diesel cracks are reshaping oil. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research 04:23 Financials vs. Staples Flash Caution 08:35 Finding Signal in Noisy Markets 12:32 Fidelity, DAS London 13:43 Is the AI Trade Still Intact? 20:04 Who Finances the AI Build-Out? 26:18 Fidelity, DAS London 27:35 The Fed vs. the Investment Boom 32:04 Debt Issuance and CoreWeave's Bonds 35:12 Will the Fed Protect the AI Race? 37:51 How Fragile Is the Rest of the Economy? 39:44 Iran, the Blockade and Oil 44:55 Durable Changes to the Oil Landscape 48:15 What Fixes Blown-Out Diesel Cracks? FOLLOW WARREN › Warren – https://x.com/WarrenPies › 3Fourteen – https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help. This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end. We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Brewers Win the World Series 02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents 08:46 Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike 12:46 Fidelity / DAS London 13:58 Gold Slides Below $3,900 19:16 Is the AI Trade Fracturing? 29:29 Fidelity / DAS London 30:46 What Oil Teaches Us About AI 39:46 Midterms, War and Oil Supply 44:32 Inflation, Populism and Unrest 51:05 Polymarket Missed Brazil's Election 53:43 Inside the $6.36B Binance Hack 57:37 Gold, Bitcoin and DAS London FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AkjPKMl-PBMxKBU96-LUgBw0N8DBr4nn/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a. recommendation tobuy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained? This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story. We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two 01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3% 02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up 05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case 09:45 Reading The Oil Curve 12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs 16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries 20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through 23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions 29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan 36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices 39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil? 44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming? 54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work? This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market. We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge? 07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains? 10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital 16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market 23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin 26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity? FOLLOW GUESTS › Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x › Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc › Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown? This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets. We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation? 07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October? 11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine 16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming? 21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot 26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts? 32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter? 40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work? 44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety? 49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades? This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto. We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain 04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid? 06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream 09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps 13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right? 15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance 18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned FOLLOW GUESTS › Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat › Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street. We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? 08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks 14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down? 19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act 22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? 29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher 33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate? 38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt 43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma 48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? 08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading 13:11 The Return Of Stagflation 21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake? 25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms? 32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation 35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan? 48:45 The European Debasement Trade 59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge? 01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy? FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling. We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed 10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade? 18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit) 20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again? 27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive 35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free? 39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging? 42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge? 47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets? 53:22 Closing Thoughts FOLLOW GUEST › X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt › LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/ › Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/ › Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets. We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market? 06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%? 11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap 18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche) 20:05 Will The Fed Hike? 26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough? 30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking? 33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running? 37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking? 43:22 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction. We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken? 10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance 12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again? 18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold 23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive 27:56 The Opportunity In Silver 29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin? 32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries? 36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem? 41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy? FOLLOW GUESTS › Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan › Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise › Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention. We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent 05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent? 08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed 13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks? 16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement 19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit) 21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma 27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem 30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble 37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook 42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI? 47:03 The Debasement Endgame FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation. We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game 12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist? 19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go? 24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets? 29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish? 33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection? 37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next? 41:25 Where Should Investors Hide? 46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom? 51:58 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook. We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime 06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder 14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market 20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope 29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing? 37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold 43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible FOLLOW DARIUS › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42 › 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns. We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 The Awesome Portfolio 04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk 11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift 14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data 17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting 20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight 22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun 27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold FOLLOW JARED › X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap › Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection. We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation 04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom 07:51 Price Drives The Narrative 12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh? 21:08 Why The Long End Matters 25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem 29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole? 33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection 38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics 45:46 August Slowdown Risks FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute. We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging 06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows 14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency 18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value? 22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand 27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening 32:03 The Memory Bottleneck 37:07 AI’s Next Phase FOLLOW STEVE › X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou › Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels 06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets 12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits? 16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade 19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze 23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure 29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk? 35:29 Can Value Finally Win? 40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk 48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading. We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:00 Trading Outside The Box 06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk 12:46 AI As A Trading Tool 19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets 25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed 33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook 41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable? 43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative? FOLLOW BRENT › X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent › Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ › Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack. This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once. We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack 07:14 What Triggered The Selloff? 10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking? 12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive 14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report 18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky? 24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed? 27:54 How We're Trading This 32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning? 38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech 40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto 44:17 July 4th And The World Cup FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh. This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing. We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:04 Bob's Macro Background 09:21 Data-Driven Macro 13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead 16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility 21:13 Why Data Matters Even More 25:35 The Two Trades In Rates 33:16 Balance Sheet Games 37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop 43:32 Final Thoughts FOLLOW BOB › X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro › Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve. This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next. We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:16 FIFA World Cup 04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading 09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation 12:28 Why Inflation Stays Sticky 14:22 Monetary Policy vs AI CapEx 19:43 Warsh: Balance Sheet & Rates 25:22 Hyperscalers Hit The CapEx Wall 29:38 Passive Investing Cracking? 33:37 Market Leadership Rotating 42:07 The Productive Capital Cycle? 44:24 MicroStrategy Hits Reality 50:09 Bitcoin, AI, And Power 55:26 Do Things IRL FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cLd9ck8EM77hJz9ZlnB_5VKd8ai1Sb2d/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly? This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging. We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead 08:28 Rate Volatility Returns 13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen 18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight 26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed 35:55 The Summer Market Setup 42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test 46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost 53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt 01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision. Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve. We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a meaningful repricing of risk assets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:22 Warsh Kills Forward Guidance 05:57 Markets Price The Warsh Fed 11:19 The New Fed Task Forces 17:10 Impact On Rate Volatility 19:12 Warsh’s Balance Sheet Fight 23:13 Rethinking Fed Data 27:46 Weighing AI Productivity 31:52 Rethinking Inflation Target 36:17 Warsh’s Hawkish Market Signal FOLLOW JOSEPH › X/Twitter – https://x.com/josephwang › Website – https://fedguy.com/ › YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets. Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today. This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning. We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook 08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap 12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds 17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed 21:48 Mag Loses Leadership 28:54 The AI Capex Risk 30:17 The Best Rates Trade 34:20 Policy Powers The AI War 38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets? 43:52 The AI Access Divide 50:34 The Centralization Trade FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide. Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid. We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test 04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role 11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee? 14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak 17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix 23:30 What's The Policy Plan? 27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game 34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global 40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold 47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing FOLLOW LUKE › X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen › FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion. David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics. We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro 06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity 09:58 Supply Chains Shift To Resilience 13:13 Consumer Resilience Mystery 19:19 What Funds The Consumer? 22:44 Why The Recession Never Comes 25:55 The Fed Rethinking Hikes 32:19 Warsh Inheriting Inflation Fight 38:07 Bonds, Equities And Rates 41:17 Can Stocks Ignore Rates? 44:21 The Korea Trade FOLLOW DAVID › X/Twitter – https://x.com/EconstratPB FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates? (07:53) The AI Productivity Boom (14:28) An Update On Market Structure (18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling (36:21) How To Trade This Market -- FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks -- Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off (14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue? (29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive (38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs -- FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks -- RESOURCES › https://docsend.com/view/62t43sp222nsvqzg › Dell Children's Donation – ⁠https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061⁠ -- Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control. This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop. We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser 05:55 Monster Earnings And AI 07:59 Is This A Bubble? 12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel 14:56 Frothy AI Positioning 20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail 27:17 Main Street Is Breaking 31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets 34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl? 39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI? 42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal 47:02 Populism Against AI Politics 51:55 $10k Donation Goal FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing › Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061 DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation Story 06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold 08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken 12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks 14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion 19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate 22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk 26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data 29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming? 36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed 45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy 48:14 Final Thoughts FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA › X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people. This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage. We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels 07:38 Trading Oil Volatility 13:45 Oil, China, And AI 17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports 20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation? 24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping 26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime 30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight 33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization 40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market 44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs 47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint. Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again. We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong? 07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy 11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth 19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die 21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed 29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late 36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake 43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup 48:57 Where To Find Danny FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5 › Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades. This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets. We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:08 Fed Dissents And Warsh 08:45 No Cuts Without Crisis 11:04 End Of The Powell Era 14:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 15:01 Global Yields Break Higher 17:23 Inflationary Growth Regime 20:11 Oil Shock Hits Markets 23:25 Export Ban Risk 28:26 Late Cycle Boom 36:34 Japan’s Breaking Point 48:24 Carry Trade Lose Lose 53:08 The Yield Smile 57:05 Inflation Wave Baked In 01:00:25 Hard Assets Win FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pKJPVYyMItlwJcDPJiD2ST19OzeojYPB/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain. Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural. We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:21 AI’s Macro Impact 06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles 10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth 14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get? 20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand 24:10 AI Is Too Cheap 28:15 Productivity Mirage 33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 34:24 Fed Policy And AI 41:02 Can AI Fix Debt? 47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks 49:47 The Future Of Economics FOLLOW STEVE HOU › X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long. This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy. We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing 13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data 16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 17:15 AI Capex Boom 24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy 33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans 47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges 51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball 57:58 ESG Trade Dies FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower 06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy 11:29 Recession Fears vs Data 17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks 23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters 31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime 39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean 47:13 Positioning for Turbulence 58:08 Where to Follow Michael FOLLOW MICHAEL › X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap › Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality. This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move. We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market 06:09 Dollar Weakness Drives Everything 08:39 Volatility, Retail, And Trump 12:11 What Actually Moves Markets 16:52 Allbirds And AI Mania 21:04 Inflation Is Turning Higher 26:32 Midterms And More Stimulus 30:07 Housing Versus Asset Prices 34:00 Negative Real Yields World FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wFcQCeXRDIJX9c7g0Vn1H2IcBHNXdbbN/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks? We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests. We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 From Druckenmiller to Macro 05:28 Why the Name Reflexivity 07:58 Why AI Unlocks Finance 11:40 Solving Small-Sample Macro 17:19 Known and Unknown Unknowns 23:15 When Data Beats Chatbots 28:27 Does AI Kill Alpha? 34:02 Best Strategies for AI 39:13 Jobs, Productivity, and Policy 45:10 Compute Needs Real Resources FOLLOW GUEST › Reflexivity X – https://x.com/ReflexivityAi › Reflexivity Website – https://reflexivity.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down. This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows. We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check 07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce 11:25 Can VIX Stay Low? 14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not? 19:09 AI Compute Still Leads 28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking? 34:05 China The New Bond Haven? 38:13 Best Trades in This Regime 44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation 49:50 Buy Non-US Again? FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era. Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy. We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:42 Iran War Framework 07:23 What Actually Matters 11:46 Counting Ships, Not Headlines 15:59 Beyond Hormuz 20:20 Hidden Supply Chain Risks 25:20 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 27:11 How Long Until Damage? 32:01 Negotiations or Theater? 35:55 Why Markets Still Shrug 40:18 China’s Quiet Advantage 47:56 The Bull Case Remains FOLLOW GUEST › X/Twitter – https://x.com/JacobShap › Website – https://jacobshapiro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance ›. Felix– https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance. isa recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value. We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks. We explore collapsing valuation models, AI-driven productivity, shifting labor dynamics, the compute arms race, and why Bitcoin, semiconductors, and hard assets may define the next cycle. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:23 AI Changes Macro Frameworks 06:28 Productivity Boom or Bust? 09:19 Why Bitcoin Benefits 12:42 AI and the Labor Market 15:55 The Sovereign AI Arms Race 19:15 Can New Models Catch Up? 22:58 Why Compute Demand Is Infinite 26:44 Hardware vs. Software 29:14 How to Actually Use AI FOLLOW GUEST › Jordi – https://x.com/jvisserlabs FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding. We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows. We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 06:36 Overhedged Market Setup 11:51 Why Volatility Misfires 15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets 18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals 22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor 29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds 40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation 47:04 AI Compute Still Booming 55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics 59:12 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users. residing incertain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold. positions in thecompanies, funds, or projects discussed.

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:11 Why Miran Dissented 04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks 06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate 10:04 The Case For Neutral 12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates 16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails 25:02 Skinny Master Accounts 27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand 30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins FOLLOW GUEST › Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for. Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined. We explore oil supply risks, the Fed’s policy trap, liquidity constraints, the ongoing banking regime shift, and how these forces could reshape risk assets and global growth. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:28 Middle East Drives Macro 06:21 Risk Assets Face A Lid 09:15 Will The Fed Look Through? 12:02 Why Liquidity Stays Tight 15:14 Dollar Up Gold Down 19:16 The Great Rebalancing 22:28 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham) 27:18 Where Liquidity Could Come From 31:04 Can They Steer It Back? 35:20 What Signals Actually Matter FOLLOW THE SHOW › Joseph - https://x.com/josephwang › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building? Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycle. We explore AI-driven abundance, crypto as agent infrastructure, oil and liquidity risks, tokenized data markets, and what human value looks like in an AI-dominated world. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:12 Oil Shock Meets Macro 05:22 AI Needs More Energy 07:19 The US China Race 08:53 Why Recessions Cannot Happen 12:03 Banks Will Provide Liquidity 15:24 AI Adoption Is Mispriced 18:41 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham) 20:15 Superintelligence Changes Everything 24:11 What Is Human Value 30:22 AI Agents Need Crypto 37:39 AI Meets Longevity FOLLOW GUEST › Raoul – https://x.com/RaoulGMI FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this special episode, we introduce Blockworks’ new investor relations platform for onchain businesses. As institutional capital continues to enter crypto markets, expectations around transparency, standardization, and professionalism are rising. But instead of replicating legacy systems, Blockworks IR takes a different approach, leveraging real-time, onchain data to create a more transparent, data-driven, and low-friction investor relations model. The platform combines curated analytics, branded investor portals, and white-glove advisory support into a single solution, helping teams tell a clearer, more credible story while giving investors a more efficient way to evaluate opportunities. Launched at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Blockworks IR aims to fill a critical gap in the industry. Listen to learn more about the vision behind the product and what it means for the future of investor relations in crypto.

We explore a market caught between fragile stability and mounting geopolitical pressure, where central banks, energy shocks, and liquidity constraints collide in unpredictable ways. Quinn and Felix break down the latest Fed meeting, shifting rate expectations, and how global energy disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping macro positioning and investor sentiment. We cover energy shocks, policy paralysis, equity vulnerability, geographic imbalances, and why markets may be underestimating second-order effects across currencies, commodities, and risk assets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:12 Fed Meeting & Market Reaction 10:45 Foreign Central Bank Dilemma 14:40 Potential Export Ban & Downplaying Risks 18:55 Most Vulnerable Economies 22:08 Agriculture Complex & Financial Warfare 26:58 Ads (Arkham) 27:46 Russia Winning While the World Burns 29:58 Growth-Inflation Dilemma & Fragile Positioning 39:42 Transferring Vol, U.S Trade Balance 42:50 Risks to the U.S. & Global Domino Effect 48:07 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ARpAEgw6gVndjjSP2m882nsfMOkT4o68/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham isa crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform. that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and. most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility. varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing. said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth. We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy. We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimating the second-order effects of rising energy prices. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:30 Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022 10:13 Contrasting the 2008 & 1970s Oil Shocks 15:15 The Energy Shock Impact on Households 19:16 How Will Central Banks & Bonds React? 29:50 Ads (Arkham) 30:38 Oil Shock Sequence of Events 32:28 Iran War's Asymmetric Regional Impact 39:00 What Happens to Gold? 42:02 Understanding a Wartime Economy 46:36 Final Thoughts FOLLOW GUEST › X/Twitter – https://x.com/BobEUnlimited FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at. Digital AssetSummit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:46) Iran War Update (08:08) Jobs Data, Bonds and Economic Deterioration (15:22) Asymmetric Iran Impact - US vs Europe/Asia (21:30) Market Structure - Everyone Owns Puts (26:35) Ads (Arkham) (27:23) How Will Iran War Impact Rates and the Economy? (36:21) SPR Drawdown and Trump’s Strategic Position (47:19) People Ignoring Agriculture Complex (51:45) Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14CFRydeUqk52UXPBW30wt-rcK5tuL-oK/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto. exchange and blockchainanalytics platform that allows traders and investors to look. inside the wallets of the besttraders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to. buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could be the next macro frontier. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:48) Eric's Wild Year At the Fed (07:26) Tariffs And The Role of the Dollar (14:15) Iran War Market Fallout (19:46) The Energy Shock vs Growth & Rates (24:55) Unpacking The "Donroe Doctrine" (31:29) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (33:12) Buying The Americas (35:56) Fixing The Fed Balance Sheet (40:29) Repairing Repo (43:23) The Coming Warsh Era (47:56) Productivity Growth vs The Fed (54:00) The Fed's Duration Plan & The Treasury-Fed Accord (58:06) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a broader liquidity event. We also discuss AI CapEx, private credit stress, political tensions, and the shifting structure of global markets. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lfBw2XOxnBjJSXeAmO8dmxrDicZuOQry/view?usp=sharing — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps (00:00) Intro (06:49) Monitoring The Iran Situation (13:05) Market Risks Building (22:30) Market Headwinds, K-Shaped Economy, No Safe Havens (28:33) Ad Break (Coinbase, Arkham) (30:14) Fed Cuts And Late-Cycle Behavior (33:04) AI CapEx, LNG Risks, Hegemony Blow-Off Top (40:33) Bonds Are Dying (45:43) The Beginning of the End? (52:14) Midterms And Bipartisan Failures (57:52) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

In this first episode of Inflection Point, we explore the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and crypto as institutional adoption begins reshaping the foundations of global financial infrastructure. The conversation examines ETFs, DeFi innovation, market structure shifts, institutional flows, and how evolving investor behavior is changing Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Along the way, we discuss regulation, credit markets, technology limitations, and the broader implications of finance moving onchain. Enjoy! — Inflection Point: Apple 🎙️: https://bit.ly/3QKdX5a Spotify 🎙️: https://bit.ly/3YhGJy3 YouTube 🎥: https://link.blockworks.co/46Cee2q — Follow Matt: ⁠⁠https://x.com/Matt_Hougan⁠⁠ Follow David: ⁠⁠https://x.com/dlawant⁠⁠ Follow Michael: ⁠⁠https://x.com/marcryptonio⁠⁠ Follow Marc: ⁠⁠https://x.com/marcarjoon⁠⁠ Follow Inflection Point: ⁠⁠https://x.com/BWInflection⁠⁠  Follow Blockworks: ⁠⁠https://x.com/Blockworks_⁠⁠   — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code INFLECTION200 for $200 OFF! ⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026⁠⁠ — Timestamps (00:00) Intro To Inflection Point (06:48) The Convergence Between TradFi & Crypto (22:20) Crypto's Biggest Advantages & Hurdles (36:15) Crypto's Changing Market Structure (41:00) Prices, Sentiment & Long-Term Allocators (46:00) Evolution Of Crypto Options & Yield (51:30) Is The 4-Year Cycle Dead? (01:02:00) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Inflection Point is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Crypto #DeFi #Bitcoin #Blockchain #DigitalAssets #CryptoPodcast

CEO of LB Macro Luigi Buttiglione explores whether the AI-driven productivity boom marks a durable shift in the global economy or the start of new financial imbalances. We discuss U.S. exceptionalism, neutral rates and monetary policy risks, leverage in the AI buildout, public debt sustainability, and Europe’s structural challenges. We also touch on geopolitical supply shocks and what they could mean for inflation and rates. Enjoy! __ Follow Luigi: https://x.com/LButtiglione_ LB Macro Portal: https://portal.lbmacro.finance/signup/ LB Macro App: https://lbmacro.finance/download/ LB Macro Substack: https://substack.com/@lbmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps (00:00) Intro (02:34) Luigi's Storied Background (04:10) AI’s Productivity Disruption (15:50) Monetary Policy vs AI & Inflation (18:21) Is the U.S. Still the Best Home for Capital? (22:50) The Problems with the Europe Narrative (31:42) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (33:23) The Limits to Government Debt (40:12) Private Debt, AI & Bank Regulation (46:06) U.S.-Israel War with Iran (51:04) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

We discuss the latest AI productivity disruptions, market reactions to the Citrini piece, NVIDIA earnings, and why capital keeps rotating away from software toward real assets, energy, and commodities. We also explore volatility, policy distortions, and signs of economic reacceleration. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhmyPwzHfE0pzkjIWOxHtvUolJptQPUr/view?usp=sharing — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:29) AI Boom or Apocalypse (11:10) NVDA Earnings & Dutch Disease (15:30) Software's Rerating & CapEx Winners/Losers (26:06) Are We the Horses? (29:44) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (31:25) Signs of Economic Reacceleration (40:36) Currencies & Vol Control (45:12) Gold, AI, Space, Hockey (48:33) Housing Market & Homebuilders (52:49) Boomer Roasting — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, sed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart discusses the $9 billion crypto ETF exodus, the spaghetti cannon approach to new ETF launches, and why the great sector rotation into energy, materials, and industrials creates the perfect environment for active managers while AI steals crypto’s speculative thunder. We also dig into the risks of levered and covered call ETFs, index rebalancing, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:25) What Happened To Crypto? (06:18) The Basis Trade (08:12) The Evolving ETF Landscape (12:48) Onboarding Institutions & Tokenization (17:47) Global Access To ETFs (20:09) Top Holders & Sellers And AI Competition (25:35) Ads (Coinbase) (26:28) Levered & Covered Call ETFs (31:00) Index Inclusions & Rebalancing (35:00) Massive Dispersion & ETF Rotations (41:07) Private Credit & Equity (45:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:42) Inaugural TG Macro Conference (08:27) Demographics, Debt & Hard Lessons (12:18) Oil, Commodities, Miners (18:54) Gold, Energy & Commodity Cycles (24:21) Rates, Bonds & Global Markets (26:28) Ads (Coinbase) (27:21) Warsh, Yields, Bull Markets (33:09) Market Psychology & Bull Case For America (41:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we break down evidence of a quiet Main Street re-acceleration, exploding market dispersion, AI-driven shifts in correlations, why passive strategies are being disrupted, and where capital is rotating across real assets, rates, and global markets. Enjoy! — FollowTyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19aYbTDngy8hRXMYUNNxZId3oM8AsfBjv/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:28 Main Street Re-Accelerating? 12:23 Ads (Grayscale) 13:04 AI CapEx Is Breaking Correlations (RIP Passive?) 19:55 Exploding Dispersion & Capital Rotation Plays 23:32 Retail vs Hedge Funds: Who’s Crowded? 32:08 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 33:43 Crowded Trades & Atoms vs Bits 39:50 AI Bottlenecks & Real Asset Rotation 50:02 Bitcoin, Crypto & Risk Appetite Check — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Vincent Deluard explains his three-bubble thesis for 2026, why tax receipts reveal stronger nominal growth than headline data, how fiscal stimulus could fuel a second inflation wave, the Fed’s likely policy path under Kevin Warsh, and why international diversification matters more than ever. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:28 2026 Growth Acceleration, Taxes & Fiscal Policy 13:15 Ads (Grayscale) 19:32 Monetary Policy, Kevin Warsh & Inflation 24:33 AI CapEx Boom, Energy Demand & Growth 29:54 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 40:27 Geopolitics, Energy & Global Allocation 47:48 Commodities & Precious Metals 51:30 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #bubble #stocks #stockmarket

This week we break down the brutal de-leveraging across markets, why AI CapEx is flipping the old buyback playbook and what it means for Mag7, crypto's bloodbath, the next moves from the Fed and bond market. We also dig into credit risk, factor rotations, the Epstein list, and why gold is sending a louder signal than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RPRDTwLzPJR9ggBsFnZ7jGUYUJUl-idb/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:16 De-Leveraging and Market Stress 05:20 AI CapEx vs Buybacks and Mag7 14:04 Crypto Bloodbath and Risk Assets 18:47 Ads (Grayscale) 21:42 Credit Risk, Factors, and Fed Path 32:52 Epstein Fallout 35:47 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 37:19 Market Structure, Bond Market 46:18 Private Equity and AI CapEx 59:27 Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Joseph Wang joins the show to break down the implications of Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, debate QE versus balance-sheet restraint, explore shifting views on central bank independence, and unpack what all of this means for rates, markets, and inflation going forward.. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/josephwang Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for$200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:54 Fed Leadership, QE & Policy Direction 06:36 Ads (Grayscale) 14:10 Monetary Systems & Central Banking Frameworks 19:18 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 24:54 Fed Independence, Regulation & Rates 36:00 New Fed Chair Challenges & Political Pressure 43:07 Market Reactions, Speculation & Silver 47:15 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss a sleepy Fed meeting, why policy signals feel increasingly irrelevant, and what’s really driving the generational metals squeeze. We also dig into AI capex killing buybacks, market structure cracks, the future composition of the Fed, and where traders are finding opportunity as correlations break down. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sQtOng_nDsqMoXpP7XGVycaxI82Ugp_2/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:48 Fed Meeting Recap 08:30 Metals Squeeze 15:25 Ads (Grayscale) 16:05 Cyclical Re-acceleration And Massive Rotation 23:00 Productivity Boom And AI CapEx Killing Buybacks 29:46 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 31:18 Can You Justify U.S. Multiples? 38:22 Market Structure And Risks Brewing 48:33 Market Dispersion And The Next Trade 54:18 Crypto And Competing Frontier Ideas 56:46 Inflation And New Fed Chair — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, former Managing Director of global macro trading at JPMorgan and bestselling author Alex Gurevich joins the show to discuss his updated book The Next Perfect Trade, unpacking what actually makes a good trade across regimes. We also cover how to express trades, precious metals, carry trades, options simplicity, rates going to zero, and how AI may reshape discretionary macro trading. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/agurevich23 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx The Next Perfect Trade: https://a.co/d/4vRsqQj __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:36 The Perfect Trade Framework 11:42 Ads (Grayscale) 12:12 Expressing Trades, Precious Metals 21:12 Options, Risk & Portfolio Construction 27:33 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 28:56 Derivatives, Carry Trades & Market Structure 32:39 AI, Macro & Global Regimes 47:23 Japan, Macro Convictions & Rates Outlook 52:21 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we unpack why metals are ripping, how dollar weakness and bond market dysfunction are reshaping macro, and what Japan’s experience signals for the U.S. We also explore extreme metals positioning, dispersion across assets, and what uncertainty around the new Fed Chair means for rates. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/158S7DSViXUrZ4Lw2kPLtKE4yPNvKD6s9/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Metals, Japan & Global Debt 15:58 Inflation, Politics & Metals 23:00 Commodities & Elitist Wake Up Call 27:12 Market Positioning & Sector Dispersion 43:30 New Fed Chair & Rate Implications 51:17 Long The Periodic Table — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility joins the show to discuss the bifurcation of the world economy, inequality & the election cycle, populism during a war-time economy, and the secular market rotation. Enjoy! __ Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:12) Market & Political Recap (08:01) Grayscale Ad (08:38) Bifurcation Of The World Economy (17:11) Populism In A Wartime Economy (23:22) Grayscale Ad (24:11) Inequality And The Election Cycle (29:33) Dollar Power And The Federal Reserve (36:45) Following The Great Rotation (46:31) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we unpack rising market euphoria, sector rotations and why consumers are suddenly back in focus. We also dig into Fed constraints, Japan’s endgame, Bitcoin waking up, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_  Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp  Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vs0cYl__KxtoSrvj2Gs9bKGQ2SedlY1g/view?usp=sharing  — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:28) Markets Too Hot & Sector Rotations (12:17) Grayscale Ad (12:55) Trump’s Shift To Main St. (25:06) Fed, Rates & Tariffs (30:06) Grayscale Ad (30:52) CapEx & Credit Financing (35:31) Bitcoin Catching Up To Metals (43:19) Japan Endgame (48:39) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the silver trade and structural supply-demand imbalances in metals, AI acceleration and mismatch between CapEx & demand, and the breakdown of globalism. We also dig into the emerging political horseshoe, tariffs, and China’s trade leverage. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  26 Views For 2026: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/26-views-for-2026 The Silver Squeeze: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-silver-squeeze  __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Deep Dive Into The Silver Trade (10:23) Grayscale Ad (11:03) Trading The Death Of Globalism (18:21) Leaving Comparative Advantage (22:15) AI & Compute Acceleration Is Real (26:22) The Mismatch Between CapEx & Demand (30:07) Grayscale Ad (30:50) Leverage Levels & Risk (33:57) The Political Horseshoe (46:28) US vs China Capital Markets (49:15) China’s Trade Leverage (52:19) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss an insanely busy news cycle from geopolitics to surging metals and commodities, AI CapEx bottlenecks, and the SCOTUS tariff ruling. We also dig into the mega-cap rotation, political moves for midterms, and signs of economic re-acceleration shaping markets in 2026. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_  Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp  Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lp3pWEKx9j0ZHK4ci7Idq3AUfoGLL5O1/view?usp=sharing  — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade (07:52) Yield Curve Steepening (09:22) GDPNow & The Trade Deficit (13:42) Grayscale Ad (14:24) Economic Reacceleration (16:22) Market Rotation & K-Reversal (18:53) Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? (20:40) The New G2 World (22:56) Who’s Buying Bonds? (26:50) Grayscale Ad (27:40) Small Cap & Metals Rotation (30:43) Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle (37:26) SCOTUS Tariff Ruling (43:23) Making Moves For Midterms (46:34) Short Mag7 & Follow The Government (49:13) Commodities and Metals (51:02) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to break down why markets may be leaving the Fed-driven era behind, how private credit and bank balance sheets are becoming the real engine of growth, and what massive AI and onshoring investments mean for rates, risk, and the business cycle going forward. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) The Shift From The Fed To Private Credit (05:50) Push Vs Pull Demand For Credit (08:47) Grayscale Ad (09:25) Money Vs Credit (17:28) The Loop Of Spending & Savings (27:04) Grayscale Ad (27:51) Is The New Credit Flywheel A Policy Choice? (32:00) Impact On Investment & Consumption (35:19) Moving Back To A Traditional Business Cycle (38:52) Historical Disruptions Vs Today (44:05) Do Assets Go Higher In This New Regime? (53:04) Foreign Capital Flows & Trade Deficits (01:01:47) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to break down why the metals trade still feels early, whether oil finally catches a bid in 2026, why AI could be in its last innings, and what Bitcoin’s frustrating price action is quietly telling traders. We also unpack how to think about managing risk and Tony’s advice for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx TG Macro Conference: https://tgmacro.com/conference/ __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) TG MACRO Conference (04:38) 2025 Recap & 2026 Expectations (08:34) The Precious Metals Trade (14:29) Grayscale Ad (15:06) Where Does Oil Go In 2026? (17:08) Biggest 2026 Trading Themes (21:49) Metals & The Debasement Trade (23:02) Late Innings Of The AI Trade (24:46) Grayscale Ad (25:35) We’re Still In A Bull Market (30:11) Bitcoin’s Disappointment (33:06) Trading Bubbles (34:05) Advice For 2026 (36:01) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) 2025 Wins & Misses (07:48) What Drives Rates In 2026 (13:00) Grayscale Ad (13:37) Inflation Deep Dive (18:47) Labor Market & Housing (22:59) The K-Shaped Fed Cycle (29:50) Grayscale Ad (30:37) Fed Balance Sheet (35:06) Active Treasury Issuance (37:46) Equities In 2026 (45:20) Commodities Heating Up (48:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy! — Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Kuppy’s Feudalism Piece: https://pracap.com/feudalism/ — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Economic Feudalism (06:51) Why Is Wage Growth Bad? (09:14) Malice Or Negligence? (12:28) Grayscale Ad (13:06) Global Feudalism (18:27) How Does This Unwind? (22:07) No Uses For Productive Capital (25:46) Positioning For Political Revolution (31:05) Grayscale Ad (31:52) Where Do You Invest? (38:27) Biggest Story In Macro (41:50) The Problems With US Allocators (48:50) Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market (53:50) AI Boom Winners & Losers (57:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) Risk-Off Pivot (07:28) Unpacking System Triggers (12:26) Grayscale Ad (13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses (17:13) Inflation Expectations (23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy (25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs (32:17) Grayscale Ad (33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity (40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions (47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic (50:49) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed’s new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JCTPNIa3J3RutQTuPU37_vfPqIUpcKZ3/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) FOMC Takeaways (07:29) Small Cap Rotation Underway? (09:45) Psychology Of Inflation (11:39) The Fed’s Economic Projections (14:50) Grayscale Ad (15:28) China’s Trade Performance (17:45) Mag7 Ceiling Reached? (18:22) Yields Diverging & Fiscal Stimulus (22:12) CPI Volatility, K-Economy & Messy Politics (27:36) Grayscale Ad (28:24) “Run It Hot” Vs The Dollar (30:47) Short Mag7, Long Main Street? (33:08) Credit Markets & Correlations (36:08) Are We Getting A Santa Rally? (40:27) Consequences of Wealth Disparity (46:58) We’re In The Financial Repression Endgame (50:24) Crypto’s Disappointment (54:03) Hope For The The Youth (57:49) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founder & CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast Keith Dicker breaks down why global markets now depend on constant stimulus, why Canada looks fragile as the U.S. strengthens, and how fiscal expansion and bond-market stress could shape the future of macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Keith: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:23) Everything Revolves Around U.S. Macro (06:17) Repeat of Powell Repo Pivot? (13:15) Grayscale Ad (13:55) Fed QE: Past vs Present (18:30) Did We Bypass Recession? (23:21) Canada’s Comeback & Global Markets (26:30) Unpacking Canada’s Bullish MOU (29:37) Grayscale Ad (30:23) Fixed Income vs Growing Debt Burden (38:21) Precious Metals & Commodities (40:44) Hedging Tail Risks (43:09) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss why the economy feels strong on paper but fragile underneath, from debt-fueled spending and AI-driven growth to rising concentration and growing policy distortions. We also explore where the pressure is really building, the metals trade, and what could break next as 2026 approaches. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BhzyBXj0Qt7LhUlDrb1MYor_iLLP-LQP/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:21) Consumer Spending & K-Economy (09:50) Labor, Small Businesses & the Macro Endgame (16:01) Grayscale Ad (16:39) Market Concentration & CapEx Cycle (23:47) AI Cycle Stage & Race with China (27:44) The Metals Trade (32:14) Grayscale Ad (33:01) Canada’s Big Pivot (37:41) New Fed Chair & Rates (44:10) Vol Dynamics & What to Own (50:33) Centralization & The Race to Zero (55:00) 2026 Fed Games (57:59) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an edge in trading macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Aahan: https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:38) The Real State of the Economy (06:08) Consumption & Real vs Nominal Growth (16:51) Grayscale Ad (17:29) AI CapEx's Economic Impact (26:59) Grayscale Ad (27:47) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Transmission (34:21) Understanding & Trading Liquidity (40:25) Finding Edge in Macro Trading (45:24) Turning Macro into Money (52:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw (09:48) Grayscale Ad (10:27) Market Structure & Positioning (15:14) Debating the AI Race (23:59) Gameplan for Next Year (31:31) Grayscale Ad (32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision (38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities (42:18) Oil & Energy Policy (46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy (55:17) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy! __ Follow Jordi: https://x.com/jvisserlabs Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (05:15) Why Tech is Breaking Old Macro (12:04) Grayscale Ad (12:41) How to Think About AI Disruptions (19:14) Transition From FCF to Debt-Funded (25:04) .Com Comparisons & Infinite AI Demand (29:05) The Genesis Mission (31:10) Grayscale Ad (31:58) The New Reality of Today’s Markets (36:47) Deflation vs Inflation Risks (39:58) Mike Green’s Viral Post (41:52) Debt Doom Loop & Curing All Diseases (45:35) Fed Buying Corporate Bonds (47:25) Bitcoin’s Digital Moat (54:25) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex (09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot (12:05) Grayscale Ad (12:45) Private Credit Warnings (14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup (19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed (22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates (27:12) Grayscale Ad (28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade (36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner (48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins (53:52) Political Reflections (58:54) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle (05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth (09:43) Grayscale Ad (10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot (13:41) Recession Odds (16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy (20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7 (21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics (25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (29:28) Grayscale Ad (30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t) (35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints (40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets (47:21) View on U.S. Equities (50:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1drPbriNOF50E3o6qdKikbqIYQy4qAuc6/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Shutdown Fallout (03:59) Hawkish Fed Speeches (07:52) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (12:14) Grayscale Ad (12:53) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (Con’t) (15:51) Warning Signs for Society (18:58) Hawkish Fed Pivot (21:32) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (28:14) Grayscale Ad (29:02) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (Con’t) (31:04) Policy Missteps & Persistent Inflation (32:00) Bitcoin, Decentralization & the Future of Money (33:10) The 2026 Acceleration Playbook (36:15) Widening Inequality & Generational Divide (44:11) Centralization, Fragility, & Systemic Risks (49:24) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy! __ Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:04) Insights from Victor’s Storied Career (09:22) Today’s Market vs the 90s (16:32) Grayscale Ad (17:11) Fat Tails & Return Chasing (28:41) Grayscale Ad (29:29) Is Discretionary Macro a Fool’s Game? (37:42) Portfolio Construction & Managing Risk (44:33) Balancing Risk, Sizing, & Expected Returns (50:15) What is Good Diversification? (55:55) Exotic Forms of Diversification (59:52) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss America’s decaying two-tier economy, with Main Street stuck in a silent recession, the Fed trapped between fiscal dominance and market structure rot, and younger generations turning to crypto and speculation as their only escape from a rigged system. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f1h9636F5tXpNPX6R5KxLnSi6BUpBnFN/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) Fourth Turning Vibes (04:00) K-Shaped Economy Continues (07:43) The Market is Broken (10:57) Government Role in Markets (11:57) Grayscale Ad (12:34) Government Role in Markets (17:47) Market Structure Decay (21:16) The Death of Retail (25:21) Generational Release Valve (28:33) Labor Market vs Automation (31:28) Grayscale Ad (32:14) Political Pivot for 2026 (35:18) Government Shutdown Ending? (37:32) Is Bitcoin Finally Bottoming? (42:33) Sad Crypto Market Structure (45:19) Solving Crypto’s Problems (48:52) Giving Back to the System — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode from the Empire podcast, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) Why Blockworks Closed The News Division (13:32) Grayscale Ad (14:10) The Next Chapter For Blockworks (20:06) It’s Still A Bull Market (24:30) Securitize Plans To Go Public At a $1.25B Valuation (31:21) Grayscale Ad (32:44) Western Union Announces USDPT (50:07) Mastercard Looks To Acquire Zerohash (56:10) Will Stripe’s Tempo Be a Success? (1:04:01) The MegaETH ICO (1:07:29) Content Of The Week __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the Fed meeting, including the end of quantitative tightening and the impact of its balance sheet plans. We also dig into how market structure imbalances and political polarization are reshaping markets, the “financial Hunger Games” of meme-driven trading, rising CapEx from AI megacaps, and the centralization of wealth and power across institutions. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E5w8fmngVNuC4lyl-PCV5qAPewW_lyKm/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Private-Public Market Divergence (05:08) Fed Meeting Takeaways (11:17) Grayscale Ad (11:56) Market Structure Rabbit Hole (17:26) The Bifurcating Economy (23:01) Fed Balance Sheet Changes (27:40) Impact on Markets (31:27) Grayscale Ad (32:15) High-Yield Earnings & Market Concentration (37:51) BigTech Capex Transition (42:19) The Dystopian AI Future (45:53) Why is Bitcoin Dumping? (48:37) The Market is a Casino (51:28) Realigning Market Incentives (55:06) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy! __ Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook (09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments (12:49) Grayscale Ad (13:27) Government Shutdown Impact (15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies (19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness (22:49) The State of the Labor Market (26:09) Grayscale Ad (26:56) Should the Fed Cut? (30:56) How We Fight Inflation (34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet (41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints (45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity (48:43) Active Treasury Issuance (51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity (53:03) The Debasement Trade (57:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, joined by Hunter Hopcroft to unpack the era of hyper-financialization and how credit creation, passive investing, and globalization have reshaped capitalism and market structure. We also dive into current volatility spikes, liquidity distortions, gold’s surge, and the setup for a year-end rally. Enjoy! — Follow Hunter: https://www.lewisenterprises.blog/ Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3LM4r8zRfHUIQxNqoPwrd7SFXsbqZo8/view?usp=sharing — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) Hunter Hopcroft (03:57) The Old Market Structure (07:39) The Line Between Debt & Equity (09:53) The Financialization Model (18:15) Crowding Out the Private Sector (23:23) Signal from Credit Spreads (27:38) The Effect of Passive & Private Credit (29:57) Market Structure Endgame (34:04) The Government & Markets (39:07) Learn More About Hunter (39:47) Hunter Takeaways (43:18) Quant Corner (50:17) Plumbing Breakdown (53:31) Gold’s Parabolic Run (55:02) Markets After OI Blowouts (57:02) Reasons to be Bullish (59:55) Crypto & US-China Meeting (1:04:09) Boomer Retirement Complex (1:06:22) Something Has to Change — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, CIO of Bitwise Matt Hougan joins us live from DAS London to discuss the surging institutional demand for crypto, the accelerating growth of crypto ETFs, the impact of SEC rule changes, the rise of perpetuals and stablecoins, and how allocations from major institutions are expanding rapidly. Matt highlights why crypto is becoming mainstream in traditional finance and why the ETF landscape is only just beginning. Enjoy! __ Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:42) Institutional Demand for Crypto (02:10) Why 2025 ETF Flows Will Beat 2024 (03:10) Market Impact of ETFs (05:37) SEC Authorizing In-Kind ETF (06:52) Crypto Crash Stress Test (08:05) Expedited SEC Approval (09:42) The Future of Crypto ETFs (12:08) Market Perp-ification & Stablecoin TAM (17:10) Exotic ETF Structures & Retail Access (19:15) ETF Tail Risks (20:53) Options & the Expanding ETF Landscape (24:05) What Excites Institutions? (26:34) The Future of Crypto Allocations (30:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we’re joined by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital live from DAS London to break down the global liquidity cycle, the hidden recession and re-acceleration in the U.S., the impact of monetary debasement on gold and Bitcoin, China’s liquidity surge and stablecoin risks, and Europe’s structural challenges. We close with why today’s environment is truly unique in 4,000 years of monetary history. Enjoy! — Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:51) Where Are We in the Global Liquidity Cycle? (05:26) Main St. Recession & Economic Rebound (08:49) GDP vs Liquidity Cycles (10:33) QE, Liquidity & Gold vs BTC (15:44) No 4-Year Cycle But Still Bullish (20:05) Stablecoins & China (27:01) Europe’s Economic Struggles (29:15) Developed Nation Decline (34:55) How Unique is this Moment? — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, CIO of ProCap Jeff Park unpacks the recent crypto market meltdown, the dangers of over-leveraging in perpetual futures, and why Bitcoin could now front-run altcoins. He also gives insights into ProCap’s work as a Bitcoin treasury company, the future of DATs, and reframes the “debasement trade” as a “purification trade” in today’s distorted macro environment. Enjoy! __ Follow Jeff: https://x.com/dgt10011 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:01) Crypto Meltdown Post-Mortem (07:09) Where Do Markets Go From Here? (08:26) Evolving DAT Strategy (16:17) Debasement vs. Purification Trade (21:25) What’s Different this Time? (26:31) The Cost of Years of Debasement (31:42) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the government shutdown and market melt-up, Paul Tudor Jones’ blow off bull market call, an update to the gold trade, the AI CapEx boom and its circular financing, and Quinn’s ETH bull thesis. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Quf3Gf0AY0s6xyHJMmAGZeaZr-quBame/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:43) Government Shutdown (05:45) Realized Vol Tailwinds (08:43) Gearing Up for Earnings Season (11:12) Navigating the Melt Up (12:57) VanEck Ad (13:42) It’s Okay to Change Your Mind (21:27) Markets Are Political (26:44) The Gold Trade (34:43) VanEck Ad (35:23) The Gold Trade (36:36) AI is the Market (43:53) The ETH Thesis (51:48) Retail Market Evolution (56:41) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy! __ Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:39) George’s Market Outlook (05:38) Where the Money’s Moving? (06:57) Trump’s Economic Ripple Effects (08:56) How the Fed Shapes the Cycle (15:12) VanEck Ad (15:56) COVID Spending & Fiscal Fallout (23:20) Are We in a Recession? (32:09) VanEck Ad (32:50) Jobs Data & FICA Withholding (38:29) Taxes, Tariffs & Shorting the Market (44:15) Supreme Court and Constitutional Risk (48:59) When Does the Music Stop? (54:50) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qHbnslxFOFZXswRiw0yv1JCyplgm8haE/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:09) DAS London! (04:06) Government Shutdown (06:42) Labor Weakness Continues (13:45) VanEck Ad (14:31) Demographic Decay of Advanced Economies (17:18) Are You Ready for Negative Real Yields? (19:20) The Macro Stars Are Aligning (24:40) Is it a Bubble or Not? (29:53) VanEck Ad (30:33) Is it a Bubble or Not? (31:40) Gaming Out Trump Admin Policy (38:06) Is there a Bear Case? (41:27) Strong USD, Strong Economy (43:52) Does the Bull Market Have Legs? (51:14) Best Bear Case (53:16) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Emerging Markets Equity Amy Oldenburg explains how her journey from tech to emerging markets led her to crypto, why mobile-first nations are fertile ground for stablecoins, how governments and banks are wrestling with this shift, and where she sees the next big opportunities across EM and innovation. Enjoy! __ Follow Amy: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amyoldenburg/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:06) How Emerging Markets Are Embracing Crypto (06:34) Stablecoins Transforming Emerging Economies (10:30) VanEck Ad (11:13) Banks vs Stablecoins (13:28) Hottest Trends Across EMs (17:00) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs (17:39) VanEck Ad (18:19) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs (20:41) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CN8SRsPqdupjrs27C0k1PDRfvGLf8kS6/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:23) DAS London (04:29) Macro Outlook (06:17) Strong GDP Numbers (07:38) Understanding the New Economy (13:02) VanEck Ad (13:46) The Housing Market (19:25) Biggest Risks to the Economy (27:36) Market Structure Update (29:06) VanEck Ad (29:47) Market Structure Update (33:24) Is Mag7 a Bubble? (39:16) Inflation is the Plan & Problem (43:42) The Poison of Financialization (45:48) Breaking a Broken System (50:15) Gold Pump vs Crypto Slump (55:11) Protectionist Policies & the Dollar (01:05:50) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance