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- 3852 - Surveillance: Levitt on Fed's path forward
Brian Levitt, Inveso Global Market Strategist, says we are close to the end of the tightening cycle. Mandeep Singh, Sr. Technology Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence on Nvidia's march toward $1 trillion market value. Greg Valliere, Chief US Policy Strategist at AGF investments says, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is a "serious player" following the weekend's debt ceiling negotiations. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at Alphasimplex says, she's looking for a breakout in US treasury yields. Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street, says sterling/US dollar will hit $1.15 by the second half of this year.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 30 May 2023 - 3851 - Surveillance: Bear Market with Wilson
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says the bear market is continuing. Megan Greene, Kroll Institute Global Chief Economist, says the Fed is not finished here. Jeannette Lowe, Strategas Managing Director of Policy Research, says crossing the X-date would not necessarily mean a US default. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says AI could add "another $30 per share to the Apple story." Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing Reserve Driver & 2018 Monaco Grand Prix Winner, wants to find an F1 seat in 2024, and wouldn't rule out a return to racing with Red Bull.
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Fri, 26 May 2023 - 3850 - Surveillance: Flying Blind with Bryson
Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says we are always flying blind in this economy. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum President, discusses debt-limit talks between Biden and McCarthy. Diana Amoa, Kirkoswald Asset Management CIO of Long Biased Strategies, says valuations aren't "based purely on fundamentals," and that investors are getting "FOMO." Larry Adam, Raymond James Chief Investment Officer, says tech continues to reinvent itself. Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Nvidia soaring on strong AI demand outlook.
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Thu, 25 May 2023 - 3849 - Surveillance: Yield Curve with Peters
Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, says the yield curve is already pricing in a recession. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses the slump in European luxury retailers. James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners Senior Political Analyst, discusses debt-limit talks and DeSantis' potential announcement of his 2023 presidential bid on Twitter with Musk. Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy, says the market is showing "pretty classic late cycle behavior." Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why he thinks the debt ceiling is a sideshow distracting investors from the seriously negative ramifications of a top heavy market.
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Wed, 24 May 2023 - 3848 - Surveillance: Subramanian Lifts S&P 500 Target
Savita Subramanian, BofA Global Research Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, raises her 2023 target for the S&P 500.Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses debt-limit talks between Biden and McCarthy. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, sees a recession starting in the second half of this year. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says a recession is on the horizon. Bill Winters, Standard Chartered CEO, is not expecting another banking crisis. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 23 May 2023 - 3847 - Surveillance: Long Lasting Credit Tightening
Despite the lack of a banking crisis, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy sees credit tightening conditions lingering.Christopher Marinac of Janney Montgomery Scott sees regional banks "marching forward" with lending and profits. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income sees a cautious Fed saying they "may go a little bit further"Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair sees airfares rising 5-10% for the next couple of years.Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern reports on the US debt ceiling.
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Mon, 22 May 2023 - 3846 - Surveillance: Basak on Gorman Resigning
Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News Wall Street Correspondent says Morgan Stanley CEO Jim Gorman announcing he will resign in the next 12 months is the surprise news from today's AGM.Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy says she sees the Fed hiking one more time and "it's a high bar for them to keep going".Henrietta Treys, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director says there is a 2% chance the US defaults on its debt. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist says the dollar will zigzag the rest of this year like it did in 2021. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth CIO says putting money overseas right now is a "gimmee".Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Fri, 19 May 2023 - 3845 - Surveillance: Kirby on Debt Ceiling
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications says if you don't take care of the nation's debt, virtually nothing else matters in terms of what you're trying to do around the world. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist says the Fed is close enough to restrictive. Barbara Reinhard, Voya Investment Management Head of Asset Allocation sees the US outpacing the rest of the world with inflation data "likely to go our way". Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst says consumers are stronger than we think and have money to spend. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research Founder & President. says there's likely more pain to come thanks to the ongoing bank turmoil. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Thu, 18 May 2023 - 3844 - Surveillance: Markets with Wu Silverman
Amy Wu Silverman of RBC Capital Markets says the market consensus is bearish and the tale of optimism doesn't exist. Libby Cantrill of PIMCO believes a deal on the debt ceiling is "imminent," and could come together by this weekend. Mike Schumacher of Wells Fargo Securities says global inflation remains stubborn. Michael Gapen of BofA Securities says a Fed rate hike in June can't be ruled out. Chris Marinac of Janney Montgomery Scott says banks are in a goog spot and getting better each quarter. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Wed, 17 May 2023 - 3843 - Surveillance: Recession Forecast Loh
Marvin Loh, State Street Senior Global Macro Strategist, says a recession is unavoidable. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist says the consumer is hanging in there following retail sales data. Lindsay Rosner, Portfolio Manager at PGIM Fixed Income says the inflation battle is not over, and says a move into fixed income makes sense. Chuck Grom of Gordon Haskett warns of a "discretionary recession" in retail. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director for Policy Research says hearings rarely change policy ahead of the Senate hearing on the failures of SVB and Signature Bank. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 16 May 2023 - 3842 - Surveillance: Painful Range with Kaiser
Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says we're "bouncing into a ceiling and a floor" between 3,800 and 4,200 on the S&P 500.
Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says 2Q GDP could actually surprise to the upside.
Oscar Munoz, Former United Airlines CEO, discusses the state of the airline industry. Janno Lieber, MTA Chair & CEO, discusses safety and affordability of New York City public transit.
Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses Biden, McCarthy's upcoming debt-limit meeting.
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Mon, 15 May 2023 - 3841 - NEW PODCAST: Bloomberg Daybreak
Get today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast:
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Sun, 14 May 2023 - 3840 - BONUS EPISODE: Jamie Dimon Speaks To Bloomberg
Jamie Dimon joins Bloomberg News to discuss the debt ceiling, the regional banking crisis and the US economy. The CEO of JPMorgan Chase speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua from the bank's Global Markets Conference in Paris.
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Sat, 13 May 2023 - 3839 - Surveillance: Fed Outlook with Hatzius
Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, says the market is being overly aggressive in pricing in Fed rate cuts. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, says the risk of recession is high but we're not seeing the 'whites of the eyes' in the hard data. Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, says people in Washington DC have lost focus, and there's plenty of other things we should be focusing on rather than the debt ceiling. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says that when the Fed does cut rates, they'll be cutting aggressively. Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern talks the debt ceiling after her exclusive interview with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the G7 meeting in Japan. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Fri, 12 May 2023 - 3838 - BONUS EPISODE: Janet Yellen Speaks To Bloomberg
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sat down for an exclusive interview with Bloomberg News. She speaks with Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern on the sidelines of a Group of Seven gathering of finance officials in Niigata, Japan.
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Fri, 12 May 2023 - 3837 - Surveillance: Debt Ceiling with Dimon
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase Chairman & CEO, says the debt ceiling issue is potentially catastrophic, and says "you will have panic" the closer the US gets to a default. After PPI data and initial jobless claims, as well as the BOE's rate hike, John Ryding, Chief Economic Advisor at Brean Capital, says a recession in the US and UK is inevitable. Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, explains exactly where he would put money to work amid all the market uncertainties. Megan Horneman, CIO at Verdence Capital Advisors, says there will be more bank crises to come. Tom Tzitzouris, Head of Fixed Income at Strategas, believes this is a good time for the Fed to pause, but to keep the door open to another hike. Brian Wieser, Madison & Wall Principal, joins to discuss Disney's earnings, and the outlook for streaming. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Thu, 11 May 2023 - 3836 - Chief Future Officer: Kathy Milthorpe, LPGA
Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping business strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. This episode focuses on LPGA CFO Kathy Milthorpe, whose career at the leading U.S. women's golf association began over 30 years ago. Milthorpe and LPGA Commissioner Mollie Marcoux Samaan speak with Scarlet Fu about the opportunities ahead for the LPGA -- with record numbers of women participating in golf, and growing sponsor interest in women's sports.
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Thu, 11 May 2023 - 3835 - Surveillance: US Inflation with Dudley
Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Bloomberg Economics Senior Adviser, says its hard to see 2% inflation with the labor market this tight and wages this high. Mario Gabelli, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, explains exactly where he would put money to work amid all the market uncertainties. Rep French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says Treasury Secretary Yellen could "step in right now" and help develop a debt ceiling deal that would "pass overwhelmingly" and be signed into law before deadline. Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, sees the market environment ripe for nuanced and diversified investors. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses debt-limit talks between Biden, McCarthy. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Wed, 10 May 2023 - 3834 - Surveillance: Debt Limit with Crebo-Rediker
Heidi Crebo-Rediker, CFR Senior Fellow, International Capital Strategies Partner & Former US State Department Chief Economist, says "there must be market pressure" in order for politicians to act on the debt ceiling. Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Global Bonds, says we can see a drop in yields and a widening of credit spreads if there is an "accidental default." Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says no company is immune from recession. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says recession is not imminent. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says travel demand is exceeding supply. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 09 May 2023 - 3833 - Surveillance: Risk Management with McWilliams
Jelena McWilliams, Former FDIC Chair & Cravath Swaine & Moore Partner, says regional banks must manage risk. Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Global Economist, says congress is as polarized as its ever been. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says the recent growth data and US jobs report don't suggest a recession. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, sees yields remaining range-bound. Adam Tooze, Columbia University Professor of History, sees a bifurcation of the US economy. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Mon, 08 May 2023 - 3832 - Surveillance: US Payrolls Crush Estimates
Economics & Fmr. Fed Governor, says the Fed is not going to quit until the labor market quits. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says "the tightening is yet to show up" as the US unemployment rate falls to 3.4% in April. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, discusses the payrolls report beating estimates. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, says most regional banks "have much more stable deposit flows than anyone realizes." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Fri, 05 May 2023 - 3831 - Surveillance: ECB Signals More Hikes to Come
Katrina Dudley, Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager, says the ECB is signaling "that the core inflation number is still too high," following a 25 basis point hike by the central bank. Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Chief US Economist, says the Fed should end quantitative tightening. Matthew Monks, Bloomberg News, discusses PacWest weighing strategic options. Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says "we don't think this is a banking-specific systemic type of crisis. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, previews Apple earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Thu, 04 May 2023 - 3830 - Surveillance Analysis: The Fed Decision
Bill Dudley, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock Financial Managing Director, discuss the latest rate decision and Chair Powell's news conference. They speak with Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.
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Wed, 03 May 2023 - 3829 - Surveillance Instant Reaction: The Fed Decides
Richard Clarida, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor and former Fed Vice Chair, breaks down the most recent Federal Reserve rate decision. He speaks with Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz on a special edition on Bloomberg Surveillance.
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Wed, 03 May 2023 - 3828 - Surveillance: Fed Signal with Betsy Duke
Betsy Duke, Former Wells Fargo Chair & Former Fed Governor, says the Fed has to be careful not to signal any movement toward this rate cut that this market is expecting. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research, says the case for the Fed to ease "is not that strong." David Chiaverini, Wedbush Securities Equity Research Director, says he could see the Fed pivoting away from their inflation focus and cutting rates if a "domino effect" occurs in the banking crisis. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder & Head of Research, says we're seeing fear of uncertainty reflected in oil prices. John Lawler, Ford CFO, says EV demand is strong but sees more competition and pricing pressure with its electric crossover models. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Wed, 03 May 2023 - 3827 - Surveillance: Earnings Contraction with Han
Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist, says earnings contraction is already occurring. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst, discusses JPMorgan's acquisition of First Republic. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, says the debt ceiling might "come down to the wire." Mike Krack, Aston Martin F1 Team Principal, discusses the team's strong start to the 2023 season and the Miami Grand Prix coming up this weekend. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses Biden's debt limit meeting. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 02 May 2023 - 3826 - Surveillance: JPMorgan To Acquire First Republic
Chris Marinac of Janney Montgomery Scott says First Republic Bank was caught in the 'friendly fire' from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab says "it's hard to divorce the Fed's actions from what's happening in the banking sector". Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Managing Principal at MRV Associates, does not agree with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's assessment that we're 'getting near the end of it' on bank failures. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, says "it's remarkable the resilience we've seen" in the banking sector. Joe LaVorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Group, says "it was Fed policy itself that caused this crisis." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Mon, 01 May 2023 - 3825 - Surveillance: Stagflation with Shah
Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management says "stagflation by far is the worst case scenario." Phil Orlando, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Federated Hermes says they're "expecting negative GDP prints in the third and fourth quarter of this year." Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President reveals why, just this week, he moved back into a net short position, drawing witty parallels between the market and the New York Yankees. Bob Sulentic, President & CEO of CBRE says there will be some antiquated office buildings that can't be converted to residential. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments discusses next week's Fed rate decision and the ongoing battle with inflation. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Fri, 28 Apr 2023 - 3824 - Surveillance: Slowing US Growth
Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the US is losing momentum, but is still resilient following the latest GDP print. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, says Meta is a $300 stock. Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Senior Portfolio Manager, expects the market will end the year higher than 4,200. Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, says a slowdown is still upon us. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst, says the "monetary policy to stimulate the economy right now obviously is not there because [the Fed] has to fight inflation."
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Thu, 27 Apr 2023 - 3823 - Surveillance: Flashing Red with Donald
Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says "basically every traditional leading indicator of recession is flashing red." Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says we're in a slow bleed into recession. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, says First Republic needs "a solution and they need one very quickly." Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, discusses McCarthy's debt limit bill. Timothy Horan, Oppenheimer Senior Analyst, discusses Microsoft earnings and says the company is taking the lead on AI. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Wed, 26 Apr 2023 - 3822 - Surveillance: Biden's Reelection Bid
Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses President Joe Biden's 2024 reelection bid. Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Long Short Fund and Large Cap Growth Fund Senior Portfolio Manager, says Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are all well positioned to win when it comes to AI. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, discusses First Republic earnings. Rishi Jaluria, RBC Capital Markets Software Equity Analyst, previews Microsoft earnings. Paul Jacobson, General Motors CFO, says GM won't resort to layoffs to cut costs. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 25 Apr 2023 - 3821 - Surveillance: Central Bank Policy with Nordvig
Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO and MarketReader Founder & CEO says the combination of "too high inflation and growth that's actually getting better means it's very, very hard for the ECB to relax." Margie Patel, Allspring Global Investments Sr. Portfolio Manager, still likes the tech sector. Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, expects between 1.5-2% growth on the month in the US. Richard Greenfield, Lightshed Partners Media and Technology Analyst and Partner, discusses upcoming tech earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Mon, 24 Apr 2023 - 3820 - Surveillance: Fed's Pain Threshold with Misra
Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says we don't know the Fed's pain threshold and the market is going to grapple with that for the rest of the year. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses Tesla and upcoming big tech earnings. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says a "cliff dive moment" in the second quarter is not happening. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, says the regional banks are preparing "at worst, for the beginning of a recession or at best, for a softening of the economy." Daniel Tannebaum, Oliver Wyman Global Anti-Financial Crime Practice Leader & Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discuss Biden's plans to limit investment in China. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Fri, 21 Apr 2023 - 3819 - Surveillance: Fed in Focus with Carpenter
Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, doesn't expect the Fed to cut to zero "even if we did get a mild recession." Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, sees banking pressures lingering for longer as they undergo an "unwind" process from fiscal and monetary expansion. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, discusses regional bank earnings. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, says some investors see the political risk of investing in China increasing. Jonathan Gray, Blackstone President & COO, discusses the firm's first-quarter performance. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Thu, 20 Apr 2023 - 3818 - Surveillance: Aggressive Cuts with Luzzetti
Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, expects the Fed to be cutting rates more aggressively. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst, discusses Morgan Stanley earnings. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, sees a return to a trading environment of higher inflation volatility. Michael O'Leary, Ryanair CEO, expects double-digit price increases for airfares this year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Wed, 19 Apr 2023 - 3817 - Surveillance: Transition Period with Zelter
Jim Zelter, Apollo Asset Management Co-President, says we're in a "transition period" as markets face a higher cost of capital in debt financing. Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management Chief Strategist, doesn't think we're close to a recession. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Chief Economist, says consumers are still feeling the weight of high inflation. David Konrad, KBW Large Cap US Bank Equity Research Analyst, discusses US bank earnings. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director, says China's 1Q GDP print is an "abysmal result." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 18 Apr 2023 - 3816 - Surveillance: Yield Forecast with HSBC's Major
Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says it's very difficult to imagine us getting back to 4% on the 10-year. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation, says the equity market is not pricing in that much in terms of a credit downturn. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says there's two big risks to a long EUR-USD view: a rebound in banking data and a rebound in oil prices. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth CIO & Global Head of Investments, expects earnings to go down - probably between 7-10%. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, says different interests are at play in regards to China. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Mon, 17 Apr 2023 - 3815 - Surveillance: Banking Tremor with El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Queens' Cambridge College President, says this was not a banking crisis, rather a "banking tremor." Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, calls the banking system "resilient" as the financial sector reports results. Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission Executive Vice President, says the EU is constructively engaged with the US on the Inflation Reduction Act. Lupin Rahman, Head of EM Sovereign Credit & Portfolio Manager, says the Fed cycle is extremely important for major emerging markets. Erik Nielsen, UniCredit Group Chief Economics Advisor, says economic policy is not in the drivers seat anymore. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Fri, 14 Apr 2023 - 3814 - Surveillance: Debt Pressure with Malpass
David Malpass, World Bank President, says the developing world is under "giant pressure" from debt. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says the balance of risks facing the world economy remain tilted to the downside. Paolo Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economy, says Europe is on track to rebalance China trade. Tobias Adrian, IMF Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, says there's certainly evidence in the data of some contraction in lending. Raghuram Rajan, Chicago Booth Professor of Finance, Former IMF Chief Economist & Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, says longer-term growth "doesn't look good."
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Thu, 13 Apr 2023 - 3813 - Surveillance: March CPI Sets Stage for Fed
Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, still sees the Fed hiking by 25 basis points in May following the March CPI print. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund Portfolio Manager, says the direction of the banking crisis is "clear" but "the magnitude is not." Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President & former BOE Monetary Policy Committee member, discusses the problems with subsidies in global trade. Tim Adams, Institute of International Finance President and CEO & former Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs, says this isn't a banking crisis. Mark Kimmitt, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs & Retired Brigadier General, discusses the leak of classified documents. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Wed, 12 Apr 2023 - 3812 - Surveillance: Raising Rates with Citi's Clark
Veronica Clark, Citi Economist, sees the Fed terminal rate at 5.5 to 5.75%, anticipating another rate hike in May, June and July. Douglas Rediker, International Capital Strategies Managing Partner & Former IMF Executive Board Member, says there's a "group think" at the IMF and World Bank that contributes to the gloom forecasts. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says "something broke" but the Fed would need another "big debacle" in the markets before easing. John Bolton, Former National Security Adviser & Former US Ambassador to the United Nations, discusses the leak of classified Pentagon documents. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance
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Tue, 11 Apr 2023 - 3811 - Surveillance: Peak Yields with Rajappa
Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, says yields seem to have peaked. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says investors are being "a little too complacent" to geopolitical risks. Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities USA Chief Economist, says there is a substantial amount of firepower left in the consumer. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says an EV arms race is playing out. Adam Tooze, Columbia University Professor, says a zero-rate world is off the table. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday.
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Mon, 10 Apr 2023 - 3810 - Surveillance: Job's Day Moderation
Mohamed El-Erian of Bloomberg Opinion says we are likely to see the Fed go 25 basis points in May. Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner says the Fed won't quite until the labor market quits. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist says the growth deceleration will continue. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo says President Biden is obsessed with bringing manufacturing back to America.
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Fri, 07 Apr 2023 - 3809 - Surveillance: Banks In 4% Rate World
Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor of Finance says the banking system can't operate with interest rates at 4%. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist says it's the "speedy, aggressive and abrupt increase" to 4% rates that is the problem. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director says Europe's more open-handed approach to China could be an advantage for the US. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, Markets 360 says there's some progress on the inflation fight.
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Thu, 06 Apr 2023 - 3808 - Surveillance: Fed's Path with Mester
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester says Fed officials will need to raise interest rates "a little bit higher" and then hold them there for some time to bring inflation back toward their goal. Claudia Sahm, Former Federal Reserve Economist & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed's tools could cause a lot of pain. Gargi Chaudhuri, BlackRock Head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas calls this a "generational opportunity" for high quality income from fixed income. Michael Zeldin, Former Federal Prosecutor, discusses Donald Trump's legal troubles.
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Wed, 05 Apr 2023 - 3807 - Surveillance: Inflation Fighters with Peters
Gregory Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, says central banks have to be viewed as inflation fighters in order to get rates lower over time. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the US economy is not collapsing. Barbara Reinhard, Voya Investment Management Head of Asset Allocation, says the Fed is likely first to pause and cut. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President & "The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens" Author, discusses Finland joining NATO and the indictment of former US President Donald Trump. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor, discusses Bloomberg's 'Brackets for a Cause' as well as the private credit market following SVB's collapse.
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Tue, 04 Apr 2023 - 3806 - Surveillance: Fed Policy with Bullard
James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, says OPEC's decision to cut output came as a "surprise," but it's not clear what higher oil prices will mean for US monetary policy. John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says the response to the bank turmoil has been swift and strong. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, still expects 4,100 on the S&P 500 by year-end. Ed Morse, Citi Research Global Head of Commodities, sees a "scenario" for $100 oil but says we're not "anywhere near there yet."
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Mon, 03 Apr 2023 - 3805 - Surveillance: Fed Course with Susan Collins
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, says history shows the Fed must stay the course on inflation. Michael Zeldin, Former Federal Prosecutor & American University Washington College of Law Adjunct Professor, discusses former President Donald Trump's indictment. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research Founder & President, says the Fed "is not thinking pause right now" unless there is a significant slowdown in credit. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, says inflation is still too high for the Fed's liking. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says there is another 10-15% upside in tech.
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Fri, 31 Mar 2023 - 3804 - Surveillance: Citi's Fed Funds Forecast
Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says we could see a Fed funds rate as high as 5.75%. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the Nasdaq rally has been overdone. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, discusses the US bank hearings. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Boston Celtics Co-Owner, says there's still plenty of opportunities in tech. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his view on the banking crisis and also why he moved into a market neutral position, this morning.
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Thu, 30 Mar 2023 - 3803 - Surveillance: Bank Turmoil with KBW's Michaud
Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, says the banking crisis is behind us, "barring any other major shocks." Ed Al-Hussainy, Columbia Threadneedle Investments Senior Interest Rates Strategist, says the Fed will prioritize inflation. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says central banks will keep rates higher for longer. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy Director at Brown University, discusses the hearings on the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. David Rubenstein, "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" Host and Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, says the banking system is in "reasonably good shape."
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Wed, 29 Mar 2023 - 3802 - Surveillance: Barclays' Rogoff on Fed Cuts
Brad Rogoff, Barclays Head of FICC Research, says Fed rate cuts can come in 2024, but expects one more hike this summer. Katrina Dudley, Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager, is not in the camp of Fed rate cuts this year. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, says we are "on the road to recovery" from the banking turmoil. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Chief Market Strategist, doesn't expect rates to continue to fall. Stephen Engle, Bloomberg News, discusses Alibaba's plans to split its $220 billion empire into six units.
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Tue, 28 Mar 2023 - 3801 - Surveillance: Elevated Risks with Wilson
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & CIO, says risk for the equity market is elevated now more than it's been for the last six or twelve months. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income, doesn't think banks are out of the woods yet. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Bank Equity Strategy and Large Cap Bank Analyst, says banks are moving in the right direction. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says this banking crisis is not like a normal banking crisis. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says we need a new trade policy in the US.
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Mon, 27 Mar 2023 - 3800 - Surveillance: Rate Cuts with Peterson
Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, doesn't anticipate the Fed cutting rates this year, even if there is a mild recession. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says the US is set to fall into a technical recession. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Research, discusses a potential TikTok ban. Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer, says the market isn't "sleepwalking" through the recent banking turmoil.
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Fri, 24 Mar 2023 - 3799 - Surveillance: Market Pricing with Donald
Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says the markets may need to price in more cuts from the Fed. Alessio de Longis, Invesco Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of GTAA Solutions, says the Fed is looking at "marginal increases" going forward, whereas the ECB, BOE "have more to go." John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed's credibility is still on the line. Sen. Mark Warner, (D) Virginia, previews the TikTok hearing by the House of Representatives' Energy and Commerce Committee.
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Thu, 23 Mar 2023 - 3798 - Surveillance: Fed Special
Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz wrap up Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference with insight from top market names.
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Wed, 22 Mar 2023 - 3797 - Richard Clarida on the Fed Decision
Former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida and TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, Priya Misra discuss the latest on the Fed decision with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.
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Wed, 22 Mar 2023 - 3796 - Surveillance: Maximum Pressure with Michele
Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Head of Fixed income, says the Fed achieved the "maximum pressure" they need to bring down inflation. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities and Capital Markets Advisory, says Powell's credibility is still intact. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief Economist, expects the Fed to hike by 25 basis points at Wednesday's meeting. Betsy Duke, Former Wells Fargo Chair & Former Fed Governor, says Powell's credibility is his most important asset. David Malpass, World Bank President, says a global recession is not off the table.
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Wed, 22 Mar 2023 - 3795 - Surveillance: Fed Pause with PGIM's Rosner
Lindsay Rosner, PGIM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says she'd like to see the Fed pause. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Managing Director for Portfolio Strategy, says the Fed and ECB are not done yet with their hiking cycles. Dean Maki, Point 72 Chief US Economist, says recent data doesn't show much slowing in the US. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow & Author "Saudi Inc.", says she is concerned with oil demand. Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management Chief Strategist, says the Fed shouldn't raise rates Wednesday.
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Tue, 21 Mar 2023 - 3794 - Surveillance: Fed's Next Move with Dudley
William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, recommends the Fed pause at Wednesday's meeting. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says European banks are looking "more and more attractive" despite market turmoil. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, says regional banks in the US are still sensitive to this crisis in confidence. Leon Cooperman, Omega Family Office Chairman & CEO, says the banking crisis is "self-induced." Michael Arougheti, Ares Management Corporation Co-Founder, CEO and President, says the Fed is doing everything supposed to in order to provide confidence.
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Mon, 20 Mar 2023 - 3793 - Surveillance Special: UBS to Buy Credit Suisse
UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets. Bloomberg Surveillance broke the news and got analysis from:
Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Joost Beaumont, head of bank research at ABN Amro Bank Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities Bob Michele, chief investment officer of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management Mark Naur, a strategist at Danske Bank Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income co-chief investment officer Steve Pagliuca, Bain Capital Private Equity senior advisorHosted by Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz
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Sun, 19 Mar 2023 - 3792 - Surveillance: Bank Regulation with Hoenig
Thomas Hoenig, Former President of Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City & Former FDIC Vice Chairman, says policy-making needs some humility in the wake of the banking turmoil of the past week. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed has to pause in the wake of SVB. Gerard Cassidy, RBC, Head of US Bank Equity Strategy, expects to see more banking regulation ahead. Alvaro Santos Pereira, OECD Chief Economist, says inflation still remains the biggest problem for the global economy
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Fri, 17 Mar 2023 - 3791 - Surveillance: Bank Supervision with Clarida
Richard Clarida, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, PIMCO Global Economic Adviser & Columbia University Professor, sees tighter supervision on banks. Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says it's "fairly intuitive that in the long run" Credit Suisse ends up merging with another bank. Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, cites the "underlying fundamentals" as the reason why he still likes European banks. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the biggest risk of a hard landing is if the Fed follows the market pricing of interest rates.
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Thu, 16 Mar 2023 - 3790 - Surveillance: Banking Jitters with Roubini
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates CEO & Author of "Megathreats", says Credit Suisse "might be too big to fail, but also too big to be saved." Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the ECB needs to put enough "firewalls" in place to help Credit Suisse. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, says there might be counterparty risk for some of the US banks in regards to Credit Suisse. David Rubenstein, "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" Host and Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, says there is a lot of Middle East interest in Credit Suisse. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the Fed, ECB need to continue on their tightening campaign.
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Wed, 15 Mar 2023 - 3789 - Surveillance: CS CEO Koerner Urges Patience
Ulrich Koerner, Credit Suisse CEO, said the bank had seen client inflows on Monday amid the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Magnus Billing, Alecta CEO, says its $2.1 billion bet on three niche US banks was “a big failure.” Ethan Harris, BofA Securities Head of Global Economic Research, says we are experiencing a "stress event" in an otherwise "strong" financial system. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says the banking system is safe & sound. David George, Baird Senior Research Analyst, says SVB was "essentially a levered PE fund."
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Tue, 14 Mar 2023 - 3788 - Surveillance: SVB Fallout with Michaud
Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, says we need a government support mechanism to make things orderly following SVB's collapse.Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, says she wouldn't be surprised if we see another leg higher in yields if we start to price in more hikes. Michael J. Wolf, Activate Founder & CEO, says it was a "dark weekend" for startups and venture capital firms. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, MRV Associates Managing Principal, says as soon as there is a problem with one bank, "fear is real."
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Mon, 13 Mar 2023 - 3787 - Surveillance: US Payrolls Top Estimates
Marty Walsh, US Labor Secretary, discusses the US February payrolls report. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says the US labor market is still pretty hot. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says financial conditions aren't tightening enough. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, discusses US banks amid SVB turmoil. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Bank Equity Strategy, says "this is not an '08,'09 or even a 1990 moment."
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Fri, 10 Mar 2023 - 3786 - Surveillance: Tight Labor with Richardson
Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says the labor market is still very tight. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, says we still need to be positioned for decelerating growth and weaker than expected earnings. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Managing Director for Portfolio Strategy, says the global economy is accelerating. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Director of Economic Research, discusses Biden's budget proposal. Bill Browder, Hermitage Capital Management CEO, Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign Head & Author of "Freezing Order," discusses the war in Ukraine.
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Thu, 09 Mar 2023 - 3785 - Surveillance: Fed Distractions with Donald
Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says the focus on the Fed month-to-month can be distracting. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says "the risk of a hard landing does go up" if the Fed considers re-accelerating to 50 basis points. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Markets Advisory, says Powell is sticking to the Volcker playbook. Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, says it's important that Powell laid out how data dependent the Fed is.
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Wed, 08 Mar 2023 - 3784 - Surveillance: Tech Downside with Wilson
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist and CIO, sees as much as 20% downside for tech, meme stocks. Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says the Fed does not want to cause alarm. Iain Stealey, JPMorgan Asset Management International CIO for Fixed Income, says the ECB still has an inflation problem. Lupin Rahman, PIMCO Head of EM Sovereign Credit & Portfolio Manager, says EM is extremely diversified right now.
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Tue, 07 Mar 2023 - 3783 - Surveillance: Formula One Growth with Horner
Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing F1 Team Principal, discusses Formula One's growth in the US and Red Bull's win at the opening race in Bahrain. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President, says the China reopening trade may be "overdone." David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says any possible US downturn won't be as severe as the recession of 2008. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow and "Saudi Inc." Author, says we're headed towards a period of tightness in the oil market.
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Mon, 06 Mar 2023 - 3782 - Surveillance: Bonds are Back, says Schneider
Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short Term Portfolio Management, says cash is back, bonds are back. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says we could see a 6% Fed funds rate. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, expects a steepening of the curve if the stock market "wins." Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, says Europe's economy is stronger than the US.
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Fri, 03 Mar 2023 - 3781 - Surveillance: Smart Fed Policy with Garvey
Padhraic Garvey, ING Financial Head of Global Debt & Rates, says the way the Fed is pursuing policy here is smart. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Markets 360 Chief US Economist, sees persistent inflation everywhere. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says the Fed is committed to 2% inflation. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses Tesla following investor day.
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Thu, 02 Mar 2023 - 3780 - Surveillance: Rising Prices with Weinberg
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says we still have more price increases to go, but this is not the spiraling inflation of the 70s. Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says the trade into more cyclical parts of the market "probably happened too fast, too soon" this year. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's tough to fade the ECB, euro right now. Devin Ryan, JMP Securities Senior Research Analyst, discusses Goldman Sachs following investor day.
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Wed, 01 Mar 2023 - 3779 - Surveillance: Equity Caution with Wei Li
Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says equity markets are not appreciating the macro challenges ahead. David Page, AXA Investment Managers Head of Macro Research, thinks we could see an asynchronistic recession. Saira Malik, Nuveen Chief Investment Officer, explains why she thinks emerging markets look attractive. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, doesn't expect Goldman Sachs to be making any big acquisitions.
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Tue, 28 Feb 2023 - 3778 - Surveillance: International Stocks with Arnott
Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates Chairman, explains why he likes international value stocks. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we are moving closer to stagflation. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, thinks it is all about the Fed for the foreseeable future. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Public Policy Director, discusses the current state of US-China relationship.
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Mon, 27 Feb 2023 - 3777 - Surveillance: One Year of War in Ukraine
Yuriy Sak, Advisor to Ukraine Defense Minister, says Ukraine is fighting a smarter war. Alina Polyakova, Center for European Policy Analysis President & CEO and Johns Hopkins School of advanced International Studies Professor, thinks the war in Ukraine could end this year. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, thinks the Fed is near the end of their rate hike cycle and that yields will eventually have to go lower. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi Asset Strategist, says US equities are in a tough spot. Mickey Levy, Berenberg Capital Markets Senior Economist and Visiting Scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, says the Fed should hike 50 basis points at the next meeting.
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Fri, 24 Feb 2023 - 3776 - Surveillance: Labor Balance with Luzzetti
Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, says it's remarkable that the Fed has tightened as much as they have and you don't see the labor market coming into better balance. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, sees a 30% chance of recession. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the Fed needs to move the needle on employment. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, says there will be a cyclical bounce-back in China starting in 2Q.
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Thu, 23 Feb 2023 - 3775 - Surveillance: Fed Pause with Hyman
Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Chairman, says if he was on the Fed, he would pause. Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says there's cash on the sidelines and "money has to be put at work." Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder & Head of Research, says oil prices haven't factored in China's re-opening. Carlos Tavares, Stellantis CEO, discusses Formula 1 and the company's transition to electric vehicle production.
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Wed, 22 Feb 2023 - 3774 - Surveillance: Oil Swings with Citi's Morse
Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, says Chinese and global oil consumption are approaching a peak as the energy transition away from fossil fuels gathers pace. Spencer Dale, BP Chief Economist, says the oil market remains very uncertain. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Market Strategist, says the rally has been fundamentally driven. Karen Short, Credit Suisse Analyst, reacts to earnings from Walmart and Home Depot.
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Tue, 21 Feb 2023 - 3773 - Surveillance: Hawkish Fears with Morgan Stanley's Carpenter
Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, says further data showing that strength in January was “not an anomaly” will increase pressure on the Fed to accelerate their pace.Wendy Schiller, Brown University Taubman Center for American Politics Policy Director, discusses recent developments as the Munich Security Conference begins. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, examines the ways airlines reinvest in their businesses. Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, says the market is ahead of itself.
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Fri, 17 Feb 2023 - 3772 - Surveillance: Purchasing Power with Meyer
Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute US Chief Economist, says the consumer has more purchasing power due to labor market strength and savings. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says market positioning can change on a dime. Russ Koesterich, Blackrock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says stocks can have a decent year ahead. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says a lot of tech names continue to move higher because of fundamentals and demand holding up.
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Thu, 16 Feb 2023 - 3771 - Surveillance: Delayed Recession with Wizman
Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, expects a recession in the US this year, but 'it's clearly not going to start in the first quarter.' Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO and Chief Research Officer, says discretionary sales have moderated. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President and Macro Strategist, says the 'no landing' scenario is growing. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says there's potential for $100 a barrel oil.
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Wed, 15 Feb 2023 - 3770 - Surveillance: US Inflation with Barkin
Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, reacts to US January CPI data. Stephen Stanley, Santander US Capital Markets Chief US Economist, says the latest inflation print came in 'as expected' but 'could have been worse.' Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard Professor of Economics & Public Policy & Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, says we could see interest rates at 6%. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research Founder & President, says today's data gives the Fed a green light to go in March.
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Tue, 14 Feb 2023 - 3769 - Surveillance: Paradigm Shift with Eisman
Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman Eisman Group Senior Portfolio Manager, sees an oncoming market regime shift. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, sees the S&P 500 at 4,400 year-end, but there's a "chance that we may see that exceeded." Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says the markets are pretty well priced for the end point of the hiking cycle. Megan Greene, Kroll Institute Global Chief Economist, says the Fed will keep rates high this year. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President and Author of "The Power of Crisis," discusses US-China tensions as the US shoots down fourth object.
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Mon, 13 Feb 2023 - 3768 - Surveillance: Pagliuca's Investing Playbook
Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Co-Owner of the Boston Celtics, sees the return of the golden age of credit. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, reacts to reports of a surprise nomination for Kazuo Ueda to take helm at the Bank of Japan. Gregory Staples, DWS Group Head Of Fixed Income North America, says January's strong rally may have gone a little bit too far. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, warns of a tough environment for companies going forward.
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Fri, 10 Feb 2023 - 3767 - Surveillance: Golden Era with Zelter
Jim Zelter, Apollo Asset Management Co-President, says this is a 'golden era' for private credit. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, expects the US to dodge recession. Luke Tilley, Wilmington Trust Chief Economist & Head of Asset Allocation and Former Philadelphia Fed Economic Adviser, says there's a 50/50 chance of a soft landing versus a mild recession. Kathryn Rooney Vera, Bulltick Capital Markets Head of Global Macro & Chief Investment Strategist, says US recession is not priced in the equity markets.
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Thu, 09 Feb 2023 - 3766 - Surveillance: Fed Game Plan with Dudley
Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Bloomberg Economics Senior Advisor, says the Fed's game plan is to go to restrictive and keep it there for as long as it takes. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says we are a 'ways away' from 2% inflation. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the US equity market is fighting the Fed. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, previews Disney earnings.
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Wed, 08 Feb 2023 - 3765 - Surveillance: Bear Market Rally with Cronk
Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo CIO of Wealth Management, thinks we are in a bear market rally. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets US Bank Equity Strategy Head, thinks we could have a revaluation of banks coming out of this slowdown. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, says there is a lot of soul-searching going on for both Republicans and Democrats. Kristina Campmany, Invesco Global Debt Senior Portfolio Manager, says markets aren't listening to the Fed's hawkish narrative.
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Tue, 07 Feb 2023 - 3764 - Surveillance: Fed Cycle with Calvasina
Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, thinks we are close to the end of the Fed's hiking cycle. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management CEO, doesn't expect the Nasdaq to hit a new high this year. Julie Norman, UCL Center on US Politics Co-Director, says China has been put on the backfoot because of the balloon incident. Sarah Hewin, Standard Chartered Head of Europe & Americas Research, thinks the recovery in China will be led by consumers.
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Mon, 06 Feb 2023 - 3763 - Surveillance: US Payrolls Surprise
Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, reacts to the January payrolls report. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says consumers are telling us the labor market is fine. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the hot labor market is still going to be an issue for the inflation outlook. Glenn Hubbard, Columbia's Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business Director & Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, says the jobs report is 'certainly a worry for the Federal Reserve.' Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says the Fed is banking on a soft landing.
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Fri, 03 Feb 2023 - 3762 - Surveillance: ECB, BOE Lift Rates
Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Chief Economist, says that Europe as a whole is not falling into a recession and is now outperforming expectations. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citigroup Chief Currency Strategist, says the ECB's next meeting in March will be "really interesting." Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says now is the time to stay invested. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Founder & Author of "The Facebook Effect", discusses big tech earnings.
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Thu, 02 Feb 2023 - 3761 - Surveillance: The Fed Decision
Jeff Rosenberg, Blackrock Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund portfolio manager, says 'there's a real disconnect' between what the Fed said and what the markets heard. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics and Policy Correspondent, looks at where the Fed goes from here. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US economist, says after the Fed decision, that they're still forecasting a recession.
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Wed, 01 Feb 2023 - 3760 - Surveillance: Soft vs Hard Landing
Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says it's a soft landing "until it becomes a hard landing." Jerome Schneider, Managing Director and Head of Short Term Portfolio Mgmt, says the market is at an impasse with the Federal Reserve and where they're going. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Managing Director for Portfolio Strategy, says the Fed is on track for a soft landing. Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School Professor & Retired Goldman Sachs Partner, sees a small increase from the Fed this year.
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Wed, 01 Feb 2023 - 3759 - Surveillance: Fed Pause with Carpenter
Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, says the Fed will hike by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but "they are going to be done" after that. Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says the Fed is reiterating a message the markets have already gotten comfortable with. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International CEO, says despite China's manufacturing rebound, it won't help to drive growth. Paul Jacobson, General Motors CFO, discusses EV demand following the company's latest earnings results.
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Tue, 31 Jan 2023 - 3758 - Surveillance: Longer and Higher with Chiavarone
Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, says this rally can go longer and higher than expected. Ken Tropin, Graham Capital CEO, says it's a good time to be conservative with your investments. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says markets have gotten too aggressive. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Senior Research Analyst, thinks we could see layoffs at Apple next.
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Mon, 30 Jan 2023 - 3757 - Surveillance: Soft Landing with Oppenheimer
Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, sees a soft landing for the US and Europe. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, is seeing a strong demand for bonds. Ray Farris, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says inflation could return if oil gets above $100 per barrel. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says he is worried about an American version of the Irish troubles.
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Fri, 27 Jan 2023 - 3756 - Surveillance: US GDP Exceeds Forecast
Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says we are teetering towards a recession following US 4Q GDP. Philip Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager, says we're behind the pandemic highs with inflation. Vasileios Gkionakis, Citi Head of European FX Strategy, says the currency market has not fully priced in a 'relatively smooth' China reopening. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, discusses airline earnings.
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Thu, 26 Jan 2023 - 3755 - Surveillance: Weighing Equities with Kettner
Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he's not 'massively bullish' on equities just yet. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says we could get a 'slightly less dovish' Bank of Japan when Kuroda steps down as governor. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation, sees the market going sideways in 2Q. William McDonough, Elements Funds Founder, CEO & Lead Portfolio Manager, discusses Tesla ahead of its earnings.
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Wed, 25 Jan 2023 - 3754 - Surveillance: Stock Picking with Emanuel
Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says it's all about picking stocks in this market. Kallum Pickering, Berenberg Senior Economist, doesn't think we are headed into a severe recession. Steven Wieting, Citi Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Economist, thinks that corporate profits are about to take a hit. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says the copper rally is running ahead of itself.
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Tue, 24 Jan 2023 - 3753 - Surveillance: Debt Ceiling Concerns with Stealey
Iain Stealey, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Fixed Income CIO, says the market shouldn't be concerned about the US debt ceiling yet. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group Managing Director, says China is still the biggest determinant in an EM portfolio. Ralph Acampora, Chartered Market Technicians Co-Founder, thinks we're making a long-term bottom in this bull market. Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G-10 FX Strategy, explains why he thinks Europe might avoid a negative GDP print.
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Mon, 23 Jan 2023
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