Global Dispatches -- World News That Matters

The Parliament of the United Kingdom has passed a controversial new law that would allow the government to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. Under the so-called "Safety of Rwanda" bill, the Rishi Sunak government has pledged to send migrants from the UK to Rwanda, where their asylum claims would be processed.

However, is Rwanda actually safe? My guest today, Sally Hayden, is a journalist who has reported extensively on migration and refugee issues. Last month, she was barred from entering Rwanda due to her prior reporting on the plight of refugees who had been sent to Rwanda as part of a separate, but similar, European Union program.

Sally Hayden is the author of "My Fourth Time, We Drowned: Seeking Refuge on the World's Deadliest Migration Route," which won the prestigious Orwell Prize. In our conversation, Sally Hayden discusses her previous reporting on refugees in Rwanda and explores how this new UK bill fits into Europe's increasingly harsh policies towards refugees and asylum seekers.

American aid is on its way to Ukraine. This week, Congress passed a $95 billion foreign aid bill that includes about $60 billion for Ukraine. This aid had been stalled for months, mostly due to Republican intransigence in the House of Representatives. But now, the funding is being released, and according to my guest today, it will have a significant impact on the battlefield in Ukraine. 

Evelyn Farkas is the Executive Director of the McCain Institute and served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Ukraine, Russia, and Eurasia during the Obama administration. We discuss the influence this new aid package will have on the trajectory of the conflict and why its timing is critical. Farkas recently returned from Ukraine, where officials told her they were bracing for a new summer offensive by Russia. 

Diplomats are gathering in Ottawa this week for the latest round of negotiations on a treaty to end plastic pollution.

Back in 2022, 175 countries agreed to develop a legally binding agreement on plastic pollution by 2024. This meeting in Ottawa is the penultimate round of negotiations and a critical moment in the long effort to curb the environmental damage caused by the rampant production and use of plastic today.

On the line with me to discuss what these negotiators hope to achieve and some of the key obstacles in the way of a robust treaty on plastic pollution is Erin Simon, Vice President and Head of Plastic Waste and Business at the World Wildlife Fund. We kick off discussing the problem of plastic pollution before having a broader conversation about these treaty negotiations. This includes a conversation about some key diplomatic stumbling blocks preventing the adoption of a treaty on plastic pollution. 

On April 1st, Israel launched airstrikes on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, killing seven Iranian officials, including a very senior general. Iran responded with a massive drone attack on Israel, marking the first time that Iran directly attacked Israeli soil. All this is happening, of course, in the context of the conflict in Gaza.

My interview guest Dalia Dassa Kaye is a Senior Fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations and a Fulbright Schuman Visiting Scholar at Lund University. She has done extensive research and writing on the mechanics of armed conflict escalation in the Middle East, which we discuss in the context of this current crisis. We kick off discussing the recent series of events since April before having a broad conversation about the dynamics of escalation between Israel and Iran. This includes the potential that the United States becomes more deeply dragged into this conflict in the Middle East.

On the one year anniversary of the outbreak of civil war, Sudan is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world today. On April 15, 2023, fighting spread from Khartoum to other parts of the country, including Darfur, where the conflict took on ugly ethnic dimensions, potentially leading to genocide. Over 8 million people have been displaced, and the UN is warning of famine in parts of the country.

My interview guest today, Kholood Khair, is the founder and director of Confluency Advisory, a think-and-do tank formerly based in Khartoum. She explains how the conflict has evolved over the last year and why the humanitarian crisis is as dire as ever. In our conversation, we spend a lot of time discussing potential ways out of this crisis, which thus far have been elusive.

Kholood Khair explains:

How the conflict in Sudan began.

How the conflict has changed over the last year.

Why the conflict is becoming more complex and harder to solve the longer it lasts

What the international community, including the United States, can do to better support a peace process.

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The United Nations Relief and Works Agency, better known as UNRWA, was established in 1949 to support Palestinians displaced during the first Arab-Israeli war. Today, it provides services and humanitarian relief to nearly 6 million Palestinians in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and of course Gaza. 

There has always been some tension between Israel and UNRWA, but since the October 7th attacks and the Israel war in Gaza, Israeli leaders have sought to dismantle UNRWA all together and the United States seems to be a willing partner in this effort.

Following accusations that 12 out of UNRWA's 13,000 staff in Gaza took part in the October 7 attacks, the United States suspended funding for UNRWA and many other key donors followed suit. This funding suspension took place even as UNRWA's humanitarian relief networks in Gaza are widely regarded as irreplaceable. To the extent that aid is reaching besieged populations in Gaza, it is UNRWA facilitating the deliveries. 

My interview guest today, Jonathan Lincoln is a former United Nations official who served as a Senior Coordination Officer at the Jerusalem office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, where he worked on aid in the West Bank and Gaza. He is now the interim Director of the Center for Jewish Civilization at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He recently wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs about the necessity of UNRWA and the need for reforming the agency which inspired this interview.

On March 31st, Turkey held local elections across 81 provinces. These elections took place less than a year after national elections cemented President Erdogan and his AK Party's hold on power, which he had been consolidating for nearly 20 years through democratic backsliding. But these elections were different -- very different. Erdogan's AKP suffered huge defeats across the country, perhaps none more impactful and symbolic than the AKP's crushing loss in the Istanbul Mayoral race.

As my guest today, Lisel Hintz, explains, these may have been local elections, but the results show a growing nationwide opposition to Erdogan and his authoritarian leadership style. Lisel Hintz is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. We kick off by discussing the implications of the election results before delving into a lengthy conversation about Istanbul's mayor, who is emerging as a prominent national leader challenging Erdogan.

The Gaitenistas, otherwise known as the Gulf Clan, are Colombia's largest and richest criminal armed group. They formed nearly 20 years ago but have gained considerable strength since Colombia's landmark 2016 peace agreement with the Leftist FARC guerrilla group. Today, The Gulf Clan controls much of Colombia's Atlantic coast and is a key player in drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. All the while, they use coercive tactics to control the population.

My guest today, Elizabeth Dickinson, is Senior Analyst for Colombia at the International Crisis Group and author of a recent report on this group. In our conversation, she explains how this group emerged to become such a potent force in Colombia today and why it is thus far upending President Gustavo Petro's efforts to secure a so-called Total Peace for all of Colombia.

The Crisis Group report. 

Xi Jinping has dramatically reshaped China since coming to power in 2012. He is now effectively a leader for life, and throughout his time in power, he has molded Chinese politics and society to his own ideological predilections. Understanding this ideology, known as "Xi Thought," is crucial for comprehending how China perceives its role in the world today.

Steve Tsang, the director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London and co-author with Olivia Cheung of the new book "The Political Thought of Xi Jinping," provides a thorough analysis of the development and application of Xi's political ideology and its impact on China domestically and in its international relations.

We begin by discussing why understanding Xi Thought matters for comprehending China today. We then explore some of the key tenets of this ideology before engaging in a detailed conversation about an ancient Chinese imperialist ideology that Xi is reviving for the modern world.

Podcast guest Rosemary Salomone is the Kenneth Wang Professor of Law at St John's University School of Law and author of the book "The Rise of English: Global Politics and the Power of Language." The book takes readers around the world to show the political, social and cultural implications of English having been firmly established as the Lingua Franca. We kick off discussing how English became the dominant global language. We then discuss how reactions against the dominance of English are shaping domestic and international politics in interesting and sometimes unusual ways.   

The Commission on the Status of Women concludes this week at the United Nations. CSW, as it is known, is one of the major annual events at UN headquarters, second only to the opening of the UN General Assembly in September. But unlike UNGA, it rarely gets much media attention, at least not the kind of attention commensurate for a diplomatic gathering of its size.

Joining me to explain the key debates and discussion from the 68th Commission on the Status of Women is Michelle Milford Morse, Vice President for Girls and Women Strategy at the United Nations Foundation.  We kick off with a long conversation about the unique diplomatic dynamic surrounding international debates and discussions on gender equality--including why after years of progress, advocates for gender equality are now playing defense. We then discuss some of items that were on the agenda at CSW this year. 

The security and humanitarian situation in Haiti has gone from bad to worse over the last several days. The country, ensnared in an enduring crisis following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, now faces a critical juncture as violence led by gang coalitions escalates and state authority wanes. Amid this chaos, Prime Minister Ariel Henry signaled his intent to step down, agreeing to a transitional governing council. Meanwhile, a Kenya-lead prospective police mission under UN authorization remains in limbo, highlighting the urgency for immediate intervention to prevent further collapse.

Renata Segura, Deputy Director for Latin American and the Caribbean for the International Crisis Group, sheds light on Haiti's descent into chaos. This includes a recent surge in gang conflict which saw a temporary alliance aiming to confront the state's governance structures. This gang alliance has led to an unprecedented level of turmoil, targeting police stations, airports, and causing mass jailbreaks. Segura explains where this crisis may be headed next, and what the international community can do to prevent the crisis from getting even worse. 

Artificial Intelligence is changing warfare. Fully autonomous weapons that can make their own decisions about what to target or whom to kill are already in limited use today. But the pace of development of AI suggests that these so-called "Killer Robots" may become more and more common in future armed conflicts. Meanwhile, the speed at which new AI technology is coming online far exceeds the ability of the international community to come up with guardrails that might place controls on fully autonomous weapon systems.

Guest Paul Scharre is the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security. He is the award-winning author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. We kick off by discussing what we mean by autonomous weapons before having a longer conversation about what the future holds for AI in warfare, nuclear security, and how to secure sensible regulations on autonomous weapons and military uses of AI.

Paul Scharre in Foreign Affairs

Western countries have seized hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Since then, the question of what to do with those assets has loomed large over debates about Ukraine.

Vladimir Milov is a Former Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation and now a Russian opposition politician. Milov makes a compelling case for the expropriation of these assets as a means to aid Ukraine's reconstruction efforts and explains the web of state-affiliated money hidden overseas. Vladimir Milov delves into the staggering amount of Russian capital funneled out of the country, shedding light on the possibility that a significant portion is controlled by entities with direct ties to the Russian state. He emphasizes the necessity of differentiating between clearly identified state-owned assets and the more obscured parastatal resources that play a role in the international economy. Milov also discusses the potential for substantial funds to be uncovered, which could dramatically aid in the reconstruction of Ukraine's war-damaged infrastructure and society.

Vladimir Milov's article for GlobeSec

Stuart Reid is the executive editor of Foreign Affairs and author of the new book "The Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination." The book tells the story of Congo's liberation from Belgium in the 1950s and 60s and the rise to prominence of Patrice Lumumba, Congo's charismatic independence leader. Believing Lumumba to be under the sway of the Soviet Union, the CIA hatched a plot to assassinate him at a time when Congo was falling into a chaotic civil war. Into this civil war, UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld dispatched a unique peacekeeping mission to restore order and died in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances.  Stuart Reid weaves each of these stories into a single compelling narrative that reads at times like a spy thriller. 

Alexander Ward ia national security reporter for POLITICO and author of the book "The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump." We discuss the implications of Mitch McConnell stepping down as the leader of the Senate Republicans and delve into the key themes and insights from Ward's important new book. We explore the concept of the "foreign policy for the middle class" and how it shaped the Biden administration's approach to foreign policy. Ward also examines the decision-making process behind the Afghanistan withdrawal and the administration's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Our conversation sheds light on the acrimonious relationship between Biden and Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, and the challenges of navigating international crises. The episode concludes with a discussion on the ongoing Gaza crisis and the potential impact of Trumpism on future foreign policy decisions.

There is a global development pileup on the horizon. In 2024 and 2025, about a dozen funding pools that support global development and global health are due for replenishment. These replenishments are essentially fundraisers for entities like the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations (GAVI), and the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), among many, many others.

A new report from the Center for Global Development warns that these fundraisers may all be competing with each other for similar pools of money—and doing so at a time of contracting foreign aid budgets and pivotal elections in key donor countries.

One of the authors of that report, Clemence Landers, joins me for a conversation about the causes and consequences of a potential replenishment traffic jam. We kick off discussing what we mean by a "replenishment" in Global Development speak. Clemence Landers also makes the point that of these fundraisers, the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) is arguably the most consequential. IDA is the branch of the World Bank that provides grants and very concessional loans to support the development priorities of the lowest-income countries. The World Bank president is seeking a major replenishment this December.

On January 28th, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger jointly announced they were leaving the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS. This is a regional economic and political union of most countries in West africa. Citizens enjoy free movement across borders of ECOWAS member states and many of its members share the same currency.  ECOWAS also seeks to uphold democratic norms, and each of these three countries are led by military juntas. Now, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are setting up rival entity, called the Alliance of Sahel States. 

Joining me to discuss the significance of this joint decision to exit ECOWAS is Ornella Moderan, a researcher and practitioner who's been working in the Sahel and West Africa for nearly 15 years. She is currently a Research Fellow with the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute. We kick off discussing the role of ECOWAS in West Africa, particularly the important,albeit imperfect, ways it seeks to uphold democracy in the region. She then explains why these countries left ECOWAS and what this decision means for the region, for Africa and for the world at large. 

Last week, the United States Senate passed a foreign aid bill that included about $60 billion for Ukraine's defense. The vote was overwhelmingly bi-partisan, but the ultimate fate of continued American aid for Ukraine now depends on action in the House of Representatives, where the outcome is unknown.

Mounting uncertainty around America's commitment to Ukraine's defense comes at the two year anniversary of Russia's invasion. The apparent wavering today is a far cry from the overwhelmingly broad support for Ukraine in the early days of the war. So how did we get to this point? And how might the passage or not of a spending bill to support Ukraine impact the trajectory of the war and the transatlantic alliance that has emerged in Ukraine's defense? Joining me to discuss these questions and more is Peter Van Praagh, President of HFX, a Washington, DC based organization that convenes the Halifax International Security Forum. We kick off discussing the action in the United States Congress before having a broader conversation about the necessity of international support for Ukraine and the implications should that support waver. 

Disorder Podcast https://tr.ee/ksicr-3Wty

Indonesia is the third largest democracy in the world, and on February 14th national elections were held including to replace the extremely popular outgoing president Joko Widodo. The current defense minister Prabowo Subianto won those elections and will be Indonesia's next president. He's a controversial figure who has been credibly accused of human rights abuses during Indonesia's long Suharto dicatorship. He was also a former rival of Joko Widodo, but received the popular president's backing while tapping the president's son as to run as his presidential nominee. 

Indonesia is a massive democracy in an increasingly stragegic region. So what does Prabowo Subianto's election mean for Indonesia's foreign policy, its relationship to the United States and China, and for broader global trends like climate change? To answer these questions and more I speak with Prashanth Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow at the Wilson Center and Founder of the Asean Wonk Newsletter. We kick off discussing Prabowo's background before having a longer conversation about how this change in government may impact Indonesian foreign policy. 

2024 is an important year for African democracy. At least 19 national elections scheduled to take place this year. Not all of these elections will be free or fair-- let alone competetive. Some of these elections will serve to ensconce leaders for life like Rwanda's Paul Kagame. Others may serve to consolidate power following a coup. But genuine multi-party democracies like Ghana and South Africa are also headed to the polls in important elections. 

Joining me to discuss key trends in African democracy and some of the highlights on the African electoral calendar in 2024 is Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. We kick off discussing Senegal, a once reliably stable democracy that has experienced significant backsliding and recently cancelled upcoming elections. 

Disorder Podcast

To understand any country's foreign policy you need to understand domestic political dynamics. So what is driving Iranian decision making right now? Negar Mortazavi is a journalist, host of the Iran Podcast and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. I reached out to her for this interview because it seems that lost in much commentary about the widening crisis in the middle east is a nuanced understanding of what is influencing Iranian policy and decision making. Our conversation focuses on Iranian domestic politics and how that is shaping the regime's response to the Gaza crisis and US strikes against Iran backed groups in the region.

Disorder Podcast:  https://tr.ee/ksicr-3Wty

On January 25th, a milestone was reached in humanity's long fight against Malaria. For the first time ever, a Malaria vaccine was included in a country's routine childhood vaccinations program. Cameroon rolled out a new Malaria vaccine for children and other countries will soon follow. This comes after years of successful trials in Kenya, Ghana and Malawi which demonstrated the vaccine to be safe and effective in preventing Malaria deaths among children. 

Joining me to put this milestone in context is Margaret McDonnell, Executive Director of United to Beat Malaria, a global grassroots campaign of the United Nations Foundation. We kick off discussing the burden of Malaria around the world and have a broader conversation about how this new vaccine fits into global efforts to rid humanity of Malaria.

On January 15, Kim Jong Un formally declared South Korea to be an enemy state. This is significant for the fact that since the end of the Korean War, the line from Pyongyang was more or less that South Korea was like a wayward relative and would ultimately be reunified with the North. But now, according to Kim and changes he's enacting to the North Korean constitution, the state of South Korea is Enemy Number 1. This policy shift comes amidst several geopolitical trends that combined suggests to some longtime North Korea watchers that Kim is readying for war. 

On the line with me to explain the significance of this official change in North Korea's policy towards South Korea, why this change is happening now, and what can be done to deter of constrain Kim Jong Un, is Sue Mi Terry. She is a former CIA analyst, long time North Korea expert and producer of the new documentary about North Korea called Beyond Utopia, which was just nominated for a BAFTA for best documentary.

Read Sue Mi Terry in Foreign Affairs 

The United Nations is hosting the Summit of the Future in September during the annual opening the UN General Assembly. If all goes according to plan, world leaders will endorse a so-called "Pact for the Future" that will serve as a vehicle for enacting meaningful reforms to the United Nations. In late January, negotiations began in earnest over what will be included in that pact. 

My guest today Dan Perell has been following this process closely. He serves as a representative for the Baha'i International Community's United Nations Office. We kick off discussing why the Secretary General is so invested in the Summit of the Future and its potential to encourage key reforms to the United Nations. We also discuss what role civil society organizations like the Bahai International Community can play in helping ensure a successful Summit of the Future.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Baha’i International Community, an NGO that represents the worldwide Baha’i community at the UN and other international forums, where it says that recognizing humanity’s interconnectedness is key to a shared global future. 

The UN has not declared a famine in gaza--not yet at least. But the World Food Program has said there are "pockets of famine" in Gaza. In December, the UN released its most comprehensive assessment of food security in Gaza and estimated that over half a million people are facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity inside Gaza. For comparison's sake, in the entire rest of the world there are an estimated 129,000 people facing similarly catastrophic levels of food insecurity. My guest today, Tjada D’Oyen McKenna is the CEO of Mercy Corps, a large international humanitarian NGO that has long had a presence in Gaza. We discuss the food security landscape and prospect of famine, and then have an in depth discussion about the complex process of getting even limited humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Climate change is impacting the migratory patterns of fish around the world. And in some cases, the changing location of fish stocks is heightening the risk of armed conflict.

My guest today, Johan Bergenas, is Senior Vice President for Oceans at the World Wildlife Fund. Late last year, the World Wildlife Fund launched a platform called Oceans Futures to collect data on climate change and fisheries models and provide early warning of potential hostposts where fisheries might cause conflict. There has been a surge in conflict over fish over the last forty years, and this model seeks to help policy makers understand where such conflict might erupt, and how to prevent the outbreak of conflict over fisheries. In our conversation, Johan Bergenas explains where we can expect conflict over fish in the near and long term. 

On Tuesday January 16th, Iran launched airstrikes in Pakistan targeting a terrorist group it claimed carried out attacks in Iran. Two days later, Pakistan responded with its own strikes in Iranian territory, targeting a separatist group that has carried out attacks against Pakistan. 

These attacks were notable for both their scale--these were major missile and drone strikes --  and for the fact that Iran and Pakistan otherwise have normal, stable and even cordial diplomatic relations. These are not hostile neighbors, yet in the course of one week they conducted military strikes on each others' territory. These hostilities come amid escalating instability throughout the broader middle east.

My guest today Michael Kugelman is Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center. We kick off discussing Pakistani-Iranian relations and why this episode is such a departure from normal. Michael Kugelman explains how this flare up is influenced by the fraught situation in the Middle East, and offers some insights into how this crisis may evolve in the coming days and weeks. 

Taiwan held elections for President and the Legislature on January 13. These elections were highly anticipated for the fact that the leading candidates have differing views on how to manage Taiwan's relationship with China. The current vice President, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won the elections and is considered to be more pro-west, pro-independence, and skeptical of China. 

My guest today, Kharis Templeman, spent the last several weeks in Taiwan leading up to the vote. He explains the results, including the fact that while the DPP candidate Lai Ching-te won the presidency, the DPP does not have a majority in the legislature. We discuss the significance  of this split government and what Lai ching-te's presidency means for cross strait relations with China. Kharis Templeman is Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region. He is also a Lecturer at the Center for East Asian Studies at Stanford University.

Since mid-November, the de-facto authorities in most of Yemen, the Houthis, have launched dozens of attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis say they are doing this in response to Israel's war in Gaza and these attacks have severely disrupted a key global shipping lane. The United States and the United Kingdom have launched missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in retaliation, and to deter future attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. 

My guest today, Gregory D. Johnsen, is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He is currently the associate director of the Institute for Future Conflict at the U.S. Air Force Academy. He is a longtime Yemen watcher who served on the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts on Yemen. 

We kick off with a brief background on the Houthis and their role in Yemen's civil wars. We spend most of this conversation discussing the motivation behind the Houthi attacks and why airstrikes are not likely to deter future Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. 

As I'm recording this, Antony Blinken is on a whirlwind trip to at least eight countries in the Middle East and Mediterranean region. This flurry of diplomatic activity comes in the wake of worrying signs that the conflict in Israel and Gaza may spread throughout the region. The Houthis have mounted a series of attacks on commercial shipping off the coast of Yemen in the red sea. Meanwhile, Israel has targeted a senior Hamas and a senior Hezobollah leader with missile strikes in Lebanon. The risk of widespread regional escalation is suddenly very acute, according to my guest today Natan Sachs, the director of the Center for Middle East Policy and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Program at Brookings.

We kick off discussing Antony Blinken's trip and what he hopes to accomplish. And this includes planning for a post-Hamas political order in Gaza. And here, Natan Sachs explains, there is significant differences between the preferences of the Biden administration and Netanyahu -- and deep divisions within Israeli politics.  

Yaroslav Trofimov is the chief foreign affairs correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of the new book "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence."  Yaroslav Trofimov is a veteran journalist who has covered conflicts around the world. He also happens to have been born and raised in Ukraine. In the book, he offers a first-hand account of the war, and really explains the conflict from a Ukrainian perspective.

We spoke amid news of a major prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, so I kick off asking him about the significance of prisoner exchanges and what it means, if anything, for the trajectory of the conflict. We also discuss the recent major missile barrage on Kyiv, which was the largest single attack since the start of the war, and Ukraine's response.  Much of our conversation focuses on some of the trends to follow in 2024, particularly as there is serious doubt about whether or not the United States Congress can pass a funding bill to support Ukraine's defense. 

As we enter 2024, the conflict in Sudan is shaping up to be one of the worst crises in the world. Nearly 7 million people have been displaced, hunger is widespread and a hallmark of this civil war has been ethnic cleansing that may have crossed the threshold to genocide. Despite being a calamitous catastrophe, Sudan has not received much media attention, nor sustained high level engagement by policy makers, particularly in the West. 

To begin 2024, I am bringing you my conversation with Kholood Khair, the founder and managing director of Confluence Advisory, a think and do tank formerly based in Khartoum. We kick off discussing her analysis of why conflict broke out in April between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. We then discuss how this conflict evolved to the point where the Rapid Support Forces appear to very much have the upper hand and why international diplomacy has thus far failed to end this civil war. 

Ten years ago the podcast industry was in its infancy and the format of Global Dispatches was a bit different than it is today. I would sit down with people who had interesting lives or careers in international affairs and interview them about their life and career, with digressions about the historic foreign policy moments in which their or career intersected. I did around 200 of these longform biographical interviews over the first several years of the podcast. These interviews are mostly behind a paywall at this point, and unlocked for paying subscribers via Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For today, I wanted to bring everyone my 2016 conversation with Clarissa Ward, CNN's Chief International Correspondent. At the time, Clarissa Ward had recently snuck into rebel held territory in Syria.  We kick off with a conversation about the mechanics of sneaking into a conflict zone and the risks that war reporting entails. We then have a long conversation about how and why she became a journalist, including her time in Beirut and Baghdad.  

Get more episodes like this by becoming a premium subscriber. For Apple Podcasts, upgrade directly in the app. To access these bonus episodes on Spotify, go here. https://www.patreon.com/GlobalDispatches 

A few months ago, I attended one of the more interesting dinners of my life. Partly, it was the conversation: the venue was the Council on Foreign Relations. But mostly, it was the menu. The dishes served were of ingredients that are going extinct.

Sam Kass curated the menu for this “Dinner of Extinction.” He was the White House chef for the Obamas and now works at the intersection of climate sustainability and food systems — and take it from me, also cooks a great meal. I caught up with Sam Kass again for a wide ranging conversation about foods that are going extinct. He discusses in detail the ways in which climate change is imperiling everything from Snow Crabs to the peaches he served atop the burrata, to coffee and wine.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is holding national elections on December 20th. The DRC is a massive country, with some 100 million people. It is also one of the most resource-rich countries on the planet, particularly the kinds of metals required in consumer electronics and in the batteries used in electric vehicles. Needless to say, the politics of the DRC are an issue of global importance.

Incumbent Felix Tshisekedi is seeking re-election, five years after the DRC's first peaceful transfer of power since the 1960s. However, there are serious doubts that this election will be free or fair; meanwhile in the Eastern part of the country an ongoing conflict may prevent millions of people from casting their votes.  I'm joined today by Zaynab Hoosen, a political economist at Oxford Economics Africa in Capetown.  We discuss the major candidates and several of the key issues that are dominating the debate as Congolese head to the polls. 

The international climate change conference, COP28, concluded in Dubai on December 13th, one day later than its scheduled end-date. Negotiators went into overtime to hammer out an agreement  that for the first time addressed the politically fraught question of phasing out fossil fuels. 

Joining me to discuss that key outcome and other significant results of COP28  is Pete Ogden, Vice President for Climate and Environment at the United Nations Foundation. We kick off discussing why this particular meeting in Dubai was an important moment for the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to at least 1.5 degrees celsius. We then discuss the contentious politics and diplomacy around an agreement to phase out fossil fuels and other key outcomes of this UN Climate Conference.

In February 2021, the Myanmar military toppled the civilian government of Burma, lead by Aung San Suu Kyi. Mass protests followed this coup and were brutally suppressed by the military junta. Soon, an insurgency sprang up. For much of this conflict, the Burmese military has had the upper hand.  But things changed dramatically in recent weeks. Now, the Burmese military looks as weak as it ever has in its nearly 40 years of on and off again control of Myanmar. The Junta's defeat suddenly looks like a real possibility. 

Joining me to provide important context for understanding the civil war in Myanmar is Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We kick off discussing the outbreak of conflict in Myanmar following the 2021 coup. Gregory Poling does a good job of breaking down the complexities of a civil war that involves a wide number of ethnic armed groups, many of which have now joined in an alliance to defeat Burmese military. We also discuss the role of China and the United States, and whether or not we can expect a collapse of the Myanmar Junta in the near future. 

This episode of Global Dispatches was recorded as a live taping of the podcast, produced in partnership with CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food-secure future dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. Global Dispatches and CGIAR are partnering on a series of episodes about the nexus between climate and security.

In our conversation today expert panelists discuss the path to resilient societies in a polycrisis era and soft launch CGIAR's new Climate Security Sensitivity Tool to assess the peace potential of climate adaptation

The episode kicks off with some opening remarks from, Peter Laderach, Co-lead CGIAR Climate Security, Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT

 I then moderate a panel discussion featuring :

Carolina Sarzana – Climate Security Specialist with CGIAR, the Alliance of Bioveristy and CIAT

 Linda Ogallo – Climate Change Adaptation Expert at the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Suzanna Huber -- Climate and Energy Advisor World Food Programme, Regional Bureau Eastern Africa

Erick Mariga -- Regional Fragility and Resilience Coordinator, at the Africa Development Bank Group

Mana Farooghi -- Climate and Environment Adviser at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office

Raj Shah served as administrator of USAID during the Obama administration and is now the President of the Rockefeller Foundation, a major philanthropy that is a key player in the global development space. His new book "Big Bets: How Large-Scale Change Really Happens" draws from lessons in his career to argue that big bold visions for systemic change -- what he calls "big bets" -- are crucial drivers of progress, particularly in global health and development. In our conversation, Raj Shah explains this premise. We then have a long discussion about the current state of global development and the kinds of big bets he believes are required to accellerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and beyond.

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I caught up with Estonia's top military commander General Martin Herem at the Halifax International Security Forum in November. Estonia is a NATO member that borders Russia and I was interested in drawing out General Herem's perspective on the conflict in Ukraine. 

We kick off with General Herem's military and strategic analysis of the current state of play of the war in Ukraine. We then have an extended conversation about the implications of a long and drawn out war for frontline countries like Estonia -- and for Europe more broadly. He explains what he believes Ukraine needs to break the current military impasse, and why a long war in Ukraine undermines Estonian security. 

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There is a mounting humanitarian emergency on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since October, hundreds of thousands of Afghans living in Pakistan have fled back to Afghanistan. They are being forcibly repatriated by the Pakistani government which began a crackdown on so-called illegal immigrants, compelling the expulsion of over three hundred thousand Afghans in just the last few weeks. 

On the line to explain the unfolding humanitarian crisis is Samira Sayed-Rahman, director of policy advocacy and communications for The International Rescue Committee in Afghanistan. We kick off discussing the reasons for Pakistan's sudden crackdown and then discuss the crisis this is generating inside Afghanistan. We also discuss the complications of international humanitarian relief work in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.

This episode of Global Dispatches was recorded as a live taping of the podcast, produced in partnership with CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food-secure future dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. Global Dispatches and CGIAR are partnering on a series of episodes about the nexus between climate and security.

In our conversation today expert panelists discuss the multiple benefits of climate adaptation for disaster related displacement.  The episode kicks off with some opening remarks from, Peter Laderach, Co-lead CGIAR Climate Security, Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT

 I then moderate a panel discussion featuring :

Michelle Yonetani, Senior Policy Officer, Office of the Special Advisor to the High Commissioner on Climate Action, UNHCR 

Sandra Ruckstuhl, Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute and Co-lead, CGIAR Fragility, Conflict and Migration Initiative

Tasneem Siddiqui, Professor, University of Dhaka  

Raphaela Shveiger, Yale World Fellow, Yale University

I caught up with Congressman Jason Crow at the Halifax International Security Forum, a major global security conference held each year in Nova Scotia that brings together military leaders, politicians, media and civil society groups from democratic countries. Congressman Crow is a Democrat from Colorado, first elected in 2019 and someone widely viewed as a rising star in national security and foreign policy circles. We discuss the Israel-Palestine crisis, kicking off with a question about the propriety of calling for a ceasefire. We then discuss the impact this crisis is having in the broader Middle East, on domestic politics in the United States --  and why Israel should not repeat the mistakes of the US War on Terror.  

This episode was recorded as a live taping of the podcast, produced in partnership with CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food-secure future dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.

It is part of a series of episodes about the nexus between climate and security, and in our conversation today expert panelists discuss the multiple benefits of climate Adaptation for Peace Building and Human Security. The episode kicks off with some opening remarks from,

Cesare Scartozzi, Climate Finance and Peace Specialist, Senior research fellow, CGIAR/Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT

 I then moderate a panel discussion featuring :

Grazia Pacillo,   Senior Scientist and co-lead CGIAR FOCUS - Climate Security

Catherine Wong, Team Leader for Climate and Security Risk at the United Nations Development Programme

Helana de Jong is Senior Specialist for Fragility with the COP28 UAE Presidency

In early November the United States and China held their first talks on nuclear security and arms control since 2019. The talks came ahead of a much anticipated meeting between President Biden and President Xi in San Francisco.

There were no tangible outcomes from these initial nuclear security talks, but the fact that they happened at all is a sign of progress according to my guest today Rachel Elizabeth Whitlark. She is an Associate Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology and a Nonresident senior fellow in the Forward Defense practice of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. She is also author of the book "All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation" which includes archival research on how past US administrations approached the Chinese nuclear program. And as you will see from our conversation, that history is instructive for understanding why China may be seeking to expand its nuclear program today.  

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The much anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive began in earnest in June and certainly made some gains, but nothing approaching expectations. Ukraine's top military commander admitted the conflict was a stalemate, likening it to the trench warfare of World War One. Meanwhile the world's attention has shifted to the Middle East and the future of American support for Ukraine is uncertain. 

Joining me from Kyiv is journalist Tim Mak. He's been in Ukraine for most of the last two years to report on the war, first for NPR ans now on his substack publication called The Counter-Offensive with Tim Mak. We kick off discussing the current state of the war in Ukraine and the significance of the top commander's remarks. We then discuss how this seemingly bleak moment for Ukraine is impacting the lives of Ukrainians and the domestic political implications of a future in which an outright Ukrainian victory is looking less and less likely. 

The International Criminal Court is opening an investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Israel and Palestine following the October 7 attacks and Israeli military action in Gaza. This may set into motion a process that leads to ICC indictments of Israelis and Palestinians. Joining me to explain what this investigation may look like and how it may unfold is Mark Kersten,  Senior Consultant of the Wayamo Foundation and an Assistant Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of the Fraser Valley, in British Columbia.  

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The conflict in Israel and Gaza is escalating, but it has so far not spread in any major way across the region. But so long as the conflict persists, it could just be a matter of time until other fronts of this war open up. Middle East scholar Dalia Dassa Kaye explains how the Gaza war may ignite the entire middle east. She is a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations and a Fulbright Schuman visiting scholar at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University. We spoke on Tuesday, October 31 about a why a wider regional war is very much in the realm of possibility.  

Today's episode was recorded as a live taping of the podcast, produced in partnership with CGIAR.

It is part of a series of episodes about the nexus between climate and security.

The episode kicks off with some opening remarks from, Shalini Roy, a Senior Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute, IFPRI. It then includes a moderated discussion featuring :

Dan Gilligan, Director of the Poverty, Gender and Inclusion Unit at IFPRI and Co-Lead of the CGIAR Gender Equality Initiative

Ana Solórzano,  Social Protection Advisor for Climate and Resilience at the World Food Program

Zahrah Nesbitt-Ahmed, Research Lead at the Centre for Disaster Protection

Raashee Abhilashi, Regional Project Coordinator and Consultant, Climate Change Group, at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)

An opposition candidate named María Corina Machado overwhelmingly won a primary in October to challenge Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro in presidential elections next year. Maduro was the hand picked successor to Hugo Chavez and has been in power since 2013, overseeing an economic freefall and social dislocation of a massive scale. All the while, Maduro has tightened his grip on power through authoritarian means.

Elections in Venezuala have not been free nor fair. But there was a significant political breakthrough this month that suggests things might be different this time. In negotiations in Barbados, the Maduro government agreed to allow competitive elections in 2024. In response, the United States lifted some key sanctions on Venezuela. For the first time in long time, there is a decent chance that Venezuela may move past Maduro. 

On the line with me to help understand these key recent developments is Mariano de Alba, a senior advisor for the International Crisis Group. We kick off discussing the background of Maduro's main challenger, María Corina Machado, before having a longer discussion about what this agreement in Barbados means for Venezuela's political future. 

China’s economy has been exhibiting troubling signs. Property prices are falling, making households less wealthy and curtailing consumer spending. High government debt, a declining population, and America’s policy moves are combining to pose Chinese policymakers a serious challenge. 

How is Beijing navigating the country’s economic slowdown? How will China’s struggles impact the global economy?

For answers, watch FP’s Ravi Agrawal in discussion with three experts: Economist Adam Posen; the Wall Street Journal’s chief China correspondent, Lingling Wei; and James Palmer, author of FP’s weekly China Brief newsletter. 

This episode is a special cross promotion for  FP Live, the flagship podcast from Foreign Policy Magazine, hosted by Foreign Policy Editor in Chief Ravi Agrawal. If you like Global Dispatches, you will certainly want to subscribe to FP Live. 

President Biden wrapped up a brief visit to Israel on Wednesday. The trip was also intended to include a meeting in Amman, Jordan with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, King Abdullah of Jordan and President Sisi of Egypt. That leg of the trip was abruptly cancelled following the tragedy at the hospital in Gaza.  Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is becoming increasingly dire. According to the latest reports from the United Nations, fuel is running out and water supplies are dangerously low. Some one million people are displaced and several hundreds of thousands have fled to southern Gaza near the Egyptian border in the hopes of finding some modicum of refuge and relief. 

My guest Nancy Okail is President of the Center for International Policy, a think tank in Washington, D.C. She is also an Egyptian activist and scholar and in our conversation explains some of the political considerations that are driving Egypt's response to the unfolding crisis over its border. Moments before I caught up with her, President Biden had delivered a speech in Tel Aviv in which he announced an agreement from Israel's War Cabinet for the provision of humanitarian relief into Gaza, from Egypt. We kick off discussing President Biden's speech before having a longer conversation about what the Israel-Hamas war looks like from the perspective of the Egyptian government. 

Since the early 2000s, Tobacco use has declined steadily and in some cases very sharply nearly everywhere in the world except China. According to the world health organization, Tobacco use for people 15 years or older declined globally from 34% in the year 2000 to 23% last year. But in China, tobacco use has remained relatively stable -- falling just 1%, from 27 to 26 percent in the last two decades. 

A new piece of investigative journalism offers one key explanation of why China has been such an outlier to this global trend, namely the political influence of China's national tobacco monopoly. 

My guest today, Jason McClure, a correspondent with The Examination, a new non profit investigative news agency focused on global health. He is one of the authors of the report detailing the ways in which the state-run China National Tobacco Corporation successfully undermined Tobacco use reduction efforts in China.

How China Became Addicted to its Tobacco Monopoly"

https://www.theexamination.org/articles/how-china-became-addicted-to-its-tobacco-monopoly 

The crisis in Israel and Gaza--and Southern Lebanon and the West Bank --  is unfolding rapidly. Following the Hamas attacks on Saturday, Netanyahu promised to “return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known.” Israel has already launched heavy airstrikes on Gaza and seems to be readying a ground invasion. Meanwhile, unrest in the West Bank has resulted in 11 Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers, and in Southern Lebanon Hezbollah has been trading rocket fire with Israel.

Joining me to discuss this crisis is Daniel Levy, who is head of the U.S. Middle East Project and is a former peace negotiator under the governments of Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak. We kick off discussing why the Hamas attack happened when it did, the strategic logic underpinning Hamas' actions, Israel's likely response, the implications of this episode for Israeli domestic politics, and the prospect that this might devolve into a wider regional conflict. 

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The World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings are taking place in Morocco this month, and for the first time in a long time there is real momentum around enacting reforms to how these decades old institions operate. A big boost to a reform agenda came at the G-20 meeting in India in early September when President Biden backed a reform agenda to increase the World Bank's capacity to support low and middle income countries with better loans aimed at promiting sustainable development. He also announced he'd ask congress for an additional $25 billion for the World Bank. 

This was significant for a number of reasons. First, it demonstrated a responsiveness to the criticism of developing world countries who have long sought better financing options for climate compliant economic development projects. Second, the US is the largest shareholder at the World Bank, so what the US president says carries a great deal of weight. 

On the line to discuss some of the proposed reforms--and the many political pitfalls along the way -- is Karen Mathieson, project director at the Center for Global Development. We kick off with a discussion of why the World Bank needs reform before having a longer conversation about the proposals now on the table. 

Diego Garcia is a small Island in the dead center of the Indian Ocean that is part of the Chagos Archipelago. In the early 1970s, the United Kingdom, which controlled the Islands, leased Diego Garcia to the United States for use as a military base. However, in the process of transferring Diego Garcia to the US, the United Kingdom forcibly expelled the island's native population and that of the surrounding Chagos Archipelego.  Thousands of Chagossians were exiled from their homeland, most of whom were forced to Mauritius, which is over 2,000 kilometers away. 

The forced deportation of Chagossians was a crime against humanity committed 50 years ago. But only recently has it gotten its day in court. My guest today, Philippe Sands is a famed international lawyer who has taken on the cause of righting his historic wrong. His recent book "The Last Colony: A Tale of Exile Justice and Courage" tells the story of the Chagossian exile and the effort to secure justice for Chagos islanders. We kick off our conversation with a brief history of the Island before we discuss the series of legal victories in both British courts and the International Court of Justice in the Hague that has lead to final negotiations underway to support the return of Chagosians to their homeland. 

On September 19th, Azerbaijan launched a swift military offensive against ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, a long disputed region.  Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bloody war over this territory following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which resulted in de-facto Armenian control over what is internationally recognized to be Azerbaijani territory.

That status quo existed for nearly 30 years, until September 2020 when Azerbaijan launched a surprise military offensive routing ethnic Armenian forces. Russia brokered a ceasefire and installed Russian peacekeepers to enforce a truce. But Azerbaijan had the clear military advantage. Meanwhile Russia's invasion of Ukraine undermined its role in the region. So, Azerbaijan took the initiative and now a de-facto ethnic cleansing is underway as tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians flees their homes--and their homeland since the middle ages. 

Joining me from Yerevan, Armenia to discuss this unfolding crisis is Olesya Vartanyan, Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus region at the International Crisis Group. 

Justin Trudeau dropped a bombshell before Parliament last week when he accused the government of India of assassinating a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil. Hardeep Singh Nijjar was a Sikh dissident living in British Columbia when he was gunned down by assailants outside his place of worship. Nijaar had long agitated for an independent Sikh state apparently putting him in the crosshairs of Narendra Modi’s government.  The idea that a democracy like India would carry out a hit on North American soil is a major development — and one that will complicate American foreign policy as well.

Joining me to discuss this situation is Justin Ling, a Canadian journalist and author of the Bug Eyed and Shameless Substack. We kick off discussing what we know thus far about these accusations and then have a longer conversation about what this means for Canadian diplomacy and American foreign policy going forward.

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When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, there was a brief moment when it seemed possible that this crisis might inspire European governments to turn away from fossil fuels. Russia was a huge supplier of natural gas to many European markets, and with those supplies suddenly cut off, there was an opportunity to replace Russian fossil fuel with clean energy. 

That did not happen. In fact, just the opposite occurred. According to research by my guest today Jeff Colgan, European investments in clean energy fell precipitously following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as governments scrambled for fossil fuels. Jeff Colgan is the Richard Holbrooke Professor of Political Science at Brown University and co-author of a new report, "Letting Europe’s Energy Crisis Go to Waste: The Ukraine War’s Massive Fossil Fuel Costs Fail to Accelerate Renewables' 

We kick off discussing the state of Europe's energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and then have an extended conversation about how and why Europe doubled down on Fossil fuels during the energy crisis that followed.  

Throughout this week there has been a notable lack of female leaders. By my count just seven of the 99 Presidents or Prime Ministers to address the General Assembly were women.  This is a recurring issue in every UN General Assembly I've covered since 2005. In our second segment today, I discuss the issue of women's political representation with Hibaaq Osman, founder and CEO of Karama a movement working in the Arab Region on ending violence against women and promoting women's political participation.

For our first segment, I speak with Pete Ogden, Vice President for Climate and the Environment at the United Nations Foundation. The Climate Ambition Summit convened on Wednesday by Antonio Guterres was the centerpiece of climate diplomacy at UNGA this year. Pete Ogden explains what happened at that summit and how events at the UN and throughout New York this week are helping to shape the outcome of the next major moment in climate diplomacy, COP28, which kicks off in Dubai in late November.

The Global Dispatches podcast is teaming up with the United Nations Foundation for a special daily series during the 78th United Nations General Assembly. 

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Today is Wednesday, September 20th and it was a very busy day at the United Nations. Of all the days this week, today was arguably the most packed with high level consequential meetings. Throughout the day today was the Secretary General's Climate Ambition Summit. We will bring you full coverage of that in tomorrow's episode. Also today, the Security Council held a meeting on Ukraine, which featured Zelenskyy's first time addressing the Security Council in person since Russia's invasion.

There were two key meetings on Global health, one on Pandemic Preparedness and Response, the other on Universal Health Coverage. I will be speaking with Kate Dodson Vice President for Global Health at the United Nations Foundation about those meetings as well as a key meeting on Tuberculosis later in the week during our second segment. 

Our first segment features Vera Songwe, Chairwoman and Founder of the Liquidity and Sustainability Facility and Co-Chair of the High Level Panel on Climate Finance who discusses the crucial topic of Financing for Development. 

The Global Dispatches podcast is teaming up with the United Nations Foundation for a special daily series during the 78th United Nations General Assembly. 

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Tuesday, September 19th marks the start of the United Nations General Assembly "General Debate." This is the parade of Presidents and Prime Ministers who address the world from the rostrum in the United Nations General Assembly hall. The day follows a familiar pattern each year: the Secretary General kicks off, followed by the new President of the General Assembly, who is Dennis Francis of Trinidad and Tobago. By tradition the President of Brazil is the first leader of a UN member state to speak, followed by the President of the United States.

Joining me to discuss these speeches and more is Anjali Dayal, Associate Professor of International Politics at Fordham University’s Lincoln Center Campus and Maya Ungar of the International Crisis Group. We spoke just as Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded his first in-person UNGA address since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That is our first segment today. Our second segment features Butti Almheiri, UN Foundation Next Generation Fellow for Climate, who previews some of the climate focused themes this week.

The Global Dispatches podcast is teaming up with the United Nations Foundation for a special daily series during the 78th United Nations General Assembly. 

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Monday, September 18 marks the kickoff to what is known around the United Nations as "High Level Week." The main event today was the Sustainable Development Goals Summit, which was intended to revive progress towards the SDGs following years of reversals during COVID. In the words of Antonio Guterres' opening remarks today, "the world needs an SDG rescue plan."

Joining us on the second half of the show to discuss the SDG Summit is Navid Hanif, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development in the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).  To kick off and set the stage for all of High Level Week is Elizabeth Cousens, President and CEO of the United Nations Foundation. We discuss some of the key stories that will drive the diplomatic agenda during the 78th United Nations General Assembly and preview some of the major events and meetings happening throughout the week. This is your vital UNGA78 scene setter.

Global Dispatches is teaming up with the United Nations Foundation for a special daily series during the 78th United Nations General Assembly. This is episode one of four. 

Interpol is the International Criminal Police Organzation. It was established 100 years ago to facilitate the cross border cooperation of national police agencies.  Interpol is an international organization with very high name recognition, but few people have a decent understanding of how it works. 

As it happens, before I became a foreign policy journalist I did an internship at Interpol's headquarters in Lyon, France. And it is there that I caught up with my guest today, Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock. He is a former German police officer who is entering his tenth and final year as the Secretary General. In our conversation we discuss some broad trends in the transnational organized crime that he has witnessed in his tenure, and how Interpol is evolving to meet those challenges. We discuss how Interpol manages geopolitical friction and rivalries among its 195 member states, to stay true to its original mission of facilitating international police cooperation. 

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PEPFAR is an acronym that stands for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. It is the largest foreign aid program targeted at a specific disease, and it is widely considered to be one of the most successful US foreign aid programs ever. 

George W Bush who started the program in 2003. It continued and expanded under President Obama and even thrived during the Trump years. But today its fate is uncertain. Funding for PEPFAR is provided by congress every five years, and typically this is a highly bi-partisan and wholly uncontroversial affair. It was due to be re-authorized this year -- but with the end of the fiscal year rapidly approaching, this legislation has not gone through. 

At issue is domestic politics around abortion. Anti-abortion groups in the United States have falsely accused PEPFAR under the biden administration of somehow indirectly or secretly supporting abortion. This idea has infected Republican politics -- several Republican members of congress who once supported PEPFAR are now preventing a vote on its re-authorization, threatening to undermine what one of these very members of congress once called "The most successful foreign aid program since the Marshall plan."

On the line to discuss PEPFAR's history of success and its uncertain future is Gayle Smith, CEO of the One Campaign and former head of the US Agency for International Development. 

Bill Richardson passed away on September 1st at the age of 75. He was a long serving member of Congress and Governor of New Mexico, former Secretary of Energy and US Ambassador to the United Nations. But his most lasting impact on international affairs was his freelance work as an international hostage negotiator. He would travel in his personal capacity to places like North Korea, Burma, and autocratic regimes around the world to help free people wrongfully detained abroad. He had a knack for negotiating with particularly nasty foreign leaders, earning him the moniker, "Undersecretary of Thugs."

When we spoke in 2015, Richardson had recently published a book about his experiences negotiating with autocrats called "How to Sweet Talk a Shark." And in our conversation, Richardson recounts stories and lessons learned from his work as a freelance diplomat dedicated to the release of hostages and political prisoners. We kicked off discussing how his unique bi-cultural upbringing and early experiences as a politician in New Mexico helped him develop the kinds of skills he would later deploy in negotiations with people like Saddam Hussein. 

I really appreciated this time with Bill Richardson. He was famously a very good talker, and this interview did not disappoint. The paywall on this episode is removed in remembrance of Bill Richardson. 

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On August 20th a former academic, diplomat and now anti-corruption crusader Bernardo Arevalo stunned the world with a landslide victory in Guatemala's presidential election. Arevalo won with over 60% of the vote, besting a former first lady who represented Guatemala's long dominant conservative -- and corrupt -- political establishment.

This was a truly unexpected result. People who professionally observe Central American politics, including Ivan Briscoe, were taken by surprise.  Ivan Briscoe is Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group. As he explains, Arevalo is genuinely committed to democracy and rooting out corruption -- and this is putting him at odds with the incumbent corrupt establishment. And despite the election results, the establishment is fighting back and taking measures to prevent Arevalo from wielding power in office and enacting meangful change. We kick off with a discussion of Arevelo's fascinating biography before having a longer conversation about the significance of his landslide victory. 

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BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It is a significant grouping for the sheer size of the countries involved. BRICS account for 40% of the world's population and nearly one third of global GDP.  In late August BRICS held a much anticipated summit in Pretoria in which they agreed to add six more countries into the club: Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

You would be correct in thinking this is an odd grouping of countries, but as Ali Wyne explains, the attractiveness of joining BRICS outweighs the rivalries that some of these these countries might have with each other. And that, he says, captures the zeitgeist of geopolitics today. Ali Wyne is a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, focusing on US-China relations and great-power competition. 

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Peter Bergen is one of the world's foremost experts on global jihadist movements like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. He is a journalist who has covered this beat for decades, including the first television interview with Osama Bin Laden in 1997.  Peter Bergen discusses where Qaeda and the Islamic State stand today, including how the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has impacted these global Jihadist movements. We also discuss why the Western Sahel region of Africa has become the geographical base of so many al Qaeda and Islamic State splinter groups. We discuss those questions and many more in detail, but kick off with a plug of Peter Bergen's new podcast, In the Room. 

In The Room 

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Pangolins are small mammals with hard scales and vital to biodiversity in forested regions. They are also the most trafficked mammal in the world. Although they are a protected species in international law, transnational organized criminal groups profit from trafficking Pangolins

This includes the Congo Basin in Central Africa. International organized criminal groups run poaching and trafficking networks in which most poached pangolins are exported to China and Southeast Asia, where they are a key ingredient in Traditional Chinese Medicine and Pangolin meat is considered a high-end delicacy.

According to my guest today Oluwole Ojewale these networks rake in millions and are a destabilizing force across several countries in the Central Africa. Oluwole Ojewale is the Regional Organized Crime Observatory Coordinator for Central Africa at the Institute for Security Studies. As he explains in our conversation Pangolin trafficking is part of a broader criminal network of illicit wildlife trafficking that funds armed groups, including terrorist groups active in the Central Africa.

The number of migrants and refugees who are dying at sea while crossing the mediterranean is at a four year high.  Nearly 2,000 people are confirmed to have died in the medditeran thus far in 2023, although the real number is likely higher. In one tragedy alone, about 600 people drowned off the coast of Greece in June.  

The most popular migrant route in recent months has been from Tunisia to Italy. That was where the MSF/Doctors Without Borders Rescue Ship the Geo Barents was patrolling in early August when it came acorss a crowded migrant boat that had been adrift for days. My guest today,  Margot Bernard of MSF, describes this rescue operation in detail. And through her account of this rescue, explains how policies of European countries are contributing to a surging number of deaths at sea. 

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In 2003 a militia drawn from ethnic Arab tribes in Darfur, known as the Janjaweed, partnered with the government of Sudan in a genocidal campaign against non-Arab tribes in the region. An estimated 300,000 people were killed in the 2003-2004 Darfur genocide. In August 2023, there is mounting evidence of ethnic cleansing is again underway in Darfur, and the US Holocaust Memorial Museum is warning that there is risk of a full blown genocide.  

As Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, what is happening in Darfur today is reminiscent of the Genocide 20 years ago. We kick off discussing the current campaign of ethnic cleansing underway in Darfur.  He then explains how the genocidal Janjaweed militia became the Rapid Support Forces, which are carrying out these atrocities while battling for control of the whole of Sudan in a full blown civil war that began in April. We discuss how the Rapid Support Forces funds its operations, and the support it is receiving from the United Arab Emirates.

Global Dispatches will bear witness to the unfolding crisis in Darfur even as it is far from the headlines of most western outlets. We will offer original reporting, and give you the analysis and context you need to understand this crisis as it unfolds through a series we are calling Darfur Genocide Watch. To access this series and support our work, become a paid subscriber in Apple Podcasts, via Patreon or via Substack

For the last eight years a decrepit old oil tanker off the coast of Yemen has been like a ticking time bomb, threatening to unleash unprecedented disaster in the Red Sea. The 47 year old oil tanker, the FSO Safer, was fraying and decaying -- and filled with one million barrels of oil. For reference, this is about four times the amount that the Exonn Valdez spilled in 1989. The UN estimated that a spill from the SFO Safer would cause an ecological, environmental and humanitarian disaster across the Red Sea region, destroying pristine reefs, and imperling costal fishing communities in Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and beyond. It would take 25 years for fish stocks to replenish. The cleanup alone would cost $20 billion.

But today's episode is about how that disaster was averted. On Friday, August 11th the United Nations announced that the FSO Safer's 1 million barrels of oil had been offloaded. This was the culmination of a massive political, diplomatic and logistical undertaking and my guest is the person who was at the center of it all, the UN's top official in Yemen David Gressly. 

David Gressly is an Assistant UN Secretary General, with whom I spoke from Aden just hours after the last oil had been pumped out of the FSO Safer. We kick off discussing the circumstances in which the oil became trapped in the old vessel, which is very much part of the story of Yemen's civil war. But this is a good news story of a crisis averted. 

Haiti is in the midst of the worst humanitarian and security crisis in years. Gang related violence is surging - and the Haitian National Police are overwhelmed and incapable of restoring order.  According to some estimates gangs now control about 80 percent of Port-au-Prince. This rampant insecurity is driving a humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes. About half the country is experiencing food insecurity. 

Amid surging violence and insecurity, Prime Minister Ariel Henry appealed to the international community to send help and asked the United Nations Security Council to support a foreign military or police intervention in Haiti. For a long time, no county was willing to step up and volunteer to lead an intervention in Haiti -- that was until Kenya said that it was willing to lead a UN-backed multinational intervention in Haiti.

But is this even a good idea? Joining me to discuss that question and many more is Renata Segura, Deputy Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group. We kick off discussing the gang violence and security challenges in Haiti before having a long conversation about the international dynamics driving a potential Kenya-lead intervention in Haiti. 

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On July 26th, the democratically elected president of Niger Mohamed Bazoum was deposed in a military coup. This coup seemingly came out of nowhere. Now, a country that had been a key US ally and a French ally in the region is suddenly in turmoil. There is also a good deal of concern that the new Nigerienne junta may turn to Moscow for support, just like the coup leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso. 

Joining me to discuss the coup in Niger and what comes next is Leonardo Villalón, professor of African Politics at the The University of Florida. We kick off discussing the possible motivations of the coup leaders and then have a long conversation about the domestic, regional and geopolitical implications of this coup.

The Wagner group was a key fighting force in Ukraine until its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin,  attempted a mutiny. 20 years before Wagner was tapped to fight in Ukraine, the United States turned to the private security firm, Blackwater, during its occupation of Iraq. Like Wagner, Blackwater was a for-profit entity that was fighting alongside one of the most powerful militaries in the world. And also like Wagner, Blackwater was credibly accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

So why is it that countries turn to private groups like this during wartime? I put that question to Dr. Benjamin Tkach, associate professior of political science at Mississippi State University. He is a researcher who studies security privatization, including private military contractors and mercenaries. We kick off briefly defining our terms: what do we mean by "mercenary" and "private security and military company?" We then have a long discussion about the corporate structure of the Wagner Group and its deployment in Africa and Ukraine. Benjamin Tkach compares Wagner today to Blackwater 20 years ago to help answer the question of why powerful countries turn to private groups in times of war.

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Oleksandra Matviichuk is a 2022 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate. She is a human rights lawyer who leads the Center for Civil Liberties, a Ukrainian human rights organization.  

Oleksandra Matviichuk has been systematically documenting Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity since 2014, when Russia first annexed parts of Ukraine. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, her work has intensified and includes advocating for ways to bring perpetrators to justice. We kick off discussing her work prior to the 2014 annexations and 2022 Russian invasion and then have a powerful conversation about reconciling her values as a human rights lawyer and the desperate need for a swift Ukrainian military victory against Russia.  

I caught up with Oleksandra Matviichuk at the Aspen Security Forum, where we recorded our conversation live. 

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I caught up with legendary international relations scholar Joseph Nye at the The Aspen Security Forum. This conference was a target rich environment for snagging great guests for the podcast and I have some excellent episodes coming up, including a conversation with the most recent Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the Ukranian Human Rights Lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk and Kenya's National Security Advisor Monica Juma. 

I speak with Joseph Nye, best known for coming up with the concept of "Soft Power" about the sources of Chinese soft power today and how that factors into geopolitical competition with the United States. We also discuss what opportunities might be harnessed to avoid a new Cold War between the United States and China. 

Since the start of the war, Russia has abducted tens of thousands of Ukrainian children. These kidnappings have been well documented by Ukrainian authorities and civil society groups. Last March, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and his children's affairs commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for the "unlawful transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation."

What happens after these children have been abducted is revealed in a new documentary by my guest today Isobel Yeung, senior correspondent for Vice News. She reported from both Ukraine and Russia to uncover a system of re-purposed summer camps and foster families who have assumed guardianship over abducted Ukrainian children. She interviews the ringleader of it all-- the alleged war criminal Maria Lvova-Belova.

NATO held a Major summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11th and 12th. Top on the agenda, of course, was Ukraine including Ukraine's potential future NATO membership. Another key issue on the agenda was Sweden. Last year, both Sweden and Finland asked to join NATO. Finland is in, but Turkey had been blocking Sweden's membership. That abruptly changed in Vilnius, paving the way for all Nordic countries to become NATO members.

Joining me to discuss what happened at this meeting, and what the Vilnius summit suggests about the future of NATO is Jim Goldgeier a professor of International Relations at American University and a longtime scholar of NATO and transatlantic affairs. We kick off discussing the debate around Ukraine's potential membership before discussing many of the other issues on the agenda in Lithuania, and what meeting means for NATOs future and the war in Ukraine. 

The international shipping industry is a major greenhouse gas emitter, accounting for about three percent of all greenhouse gas emitted last year. For reference, this is roughly equivalent to the total annual emissions of Germany. 

Because these emissions occur on international waters, the shipping industry was purposefully left out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Instead, a UN agency called the International Maritime Organization is the forum for multilateral diplomacy to curb emissions in international shipping. In early July members of the IMO met in London for negotiations.  

Joining me to discuss why this meeting was so significant to international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions is Susan Ruffo, Senior Director and Senior Advisor for Ocean and Climate at United Nations Foundation. We kick off discussing the impact of international shipping on climate change and then have an extended conversation about what happened at this meeting of the International Maritime Organization, which includes a new target for emission reduction and progress towards enacting a levy on carbon emissions from shipping. 

Taiwan will hold presidential elections in January 2024. Needless to say, these elections will have extremely consequential geopolitical implications. The two main candidates have differing views of Taiwan's relationship with China. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the current Vice President and represents the stronger pro-independence faction of Taiwanese politics. His main rival, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomingtang (KMT)  supports closer relations between Taipei and Beijing. And this year there is a surprising third party candidate, Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), who is is shaking up what is conventionally a two party presidential contest.

Joining me for an in-depth conversation about Taiwanese politics and these upcoming elections is Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution where he is the program manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region. We kick off discussing the political history of Taiwan following the Chinese civil war and then have an in-depth conversation about each of the candidates' positions on the key issue of cross straight relations. 

Less developed countries rightly lament the lack of access to funding for sustainable development that donor countries routinely promise, but rarely deliver. To remedy, dozens of Presidents, Prime Ministers and high-level officials met in Paris for the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact to rethink the "global financial architecture" to support developing economies grow in a climate compliant way. This summit was intended to kickstart momentum toward new funding opportunities for sustainable development, including enacting reforms at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. 

This was a big moment for the sustainable development community and joining me to explain what happened is Clemence Landers, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. We kick off discussing why such a meeting was necessary in the first place, including a trifecta of crises that is driving economic distress in less developed countries today. We then discuss the outcomes of the meeting, and what it means for global development and climate change debates going forward. 

Amed Khan has been described as a "direct action philanthropist." He goes to the frontlines of humanitarian crises on his own and uses his personal wealth and networks to deliver whatever the communities say they need. For the past two years, Amed Khan has been in Ukraine near the frontlines of fighting in places like Bakhmut. When we spoke he had just returned from Kherson, which experienced catastrophic flooding following the sabotage of a major dam upstream.

We kick off discussing how he got into this line of work in general, and to Ukraine in particular. As he explains he has a long history in Ukraine, but more recently worked with Ukrainian special forces to help rescue Afghans as Kabul fell to the Taliban. This was just months before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

We discuss why "frontlines philanthropy" is a unique approach to humanitarianism, the advantages and limitations of which we discuss at length.

Over the decades, Senegal has earned a reputation as a reliably stable democracy in West Africa. But recent events have put that reputation to test.  Over the last month, Senegal has been rocked by widespread protests against the government of President Macky Sall. These protests were sparked by the arrest and conviction of a prominent opposition party leader, Ousmane Sanko. The government response to these protests has been brutal. More than a dozen people have been killed, many by live ammunition fired into crowds of protesters.

Joining me to discuss recent events in Senegal is Carine Kaneza Nantulya, deputy director within the Africa division at Human Rights Watch. We discuss what lead to these protests and what Human Rights Watch uncovered about the government’s deadly response. We then have a broader discussion about what is driving democratic backsliding in Senegal

Back in 2017, the Trump administration announced that the United States would formally leave UNESCO, the UN's education, science and cultural organization. When the Biden administration came to office it promised to reverse course and rejoin UNESCO.  On June 12 this year it announced a plan to do just that. 

Joining me to discuss America's complicated relationship with UNESCO and explain why the Biden administration is seeking to rejoin is Peter Yeo, President of the Better World Campaign and Senior Vice President at the United Nations Foundation.  We kick off discussing what exactly UNESCO does and how it supports American interests before having a longer conversation about this recent frought history between UNESCO and the US. Peter Yeo then explains the process by which the Biden administration is seeking to rejoin UNESCO. 

Since fighting broke out in Sudan on April 15th this year, more than million people have been displaced internally and internationally. Many of the borders across which Sudanese have fled are not functional borders -- that is, there is no process to register or screen people who are entering a country. According to my guest today, non-functional porous borders are exacerbating an aleady dire humanitarian crisis. 

Margaret Monyani is a senior migration researcher at Institute for Security Studies in South Africa. We kick off discussing why the African Union is focusing more heavily on border control and administration before having a longer conversation about what Sudan's refugee crisis tells us about African borders today. 

On May 14th, Thailand held general elections. The results were a shock to the Thai political system.  

Since a 2014 coup, the military leaders have dominated Thai politics. A main opposition party has challenged military rule, but has been genereally thwarted at every turn.  However, this year a third party emerged victorious: and their vision for the country represents a radically progressive shift in Thai politics. 

The Move Forward Party, lead by a charismatic Harvard and MIT educated 42 year  Pita  Limjaroenrat won the elections. And they did so, according my guest today, by chanellening a kind of progressive populism that can change Thailand's domestic political culture and foreign policy in big ways. 

Prashanth Parameswrn is a Fellow at the Wilson Center and founder of the ASEAN Wonk Substack Newsletter.  We kick off discussing the political context in which Move Forward won these elections. We then have an extended conversation about how the Military Junta has rigged the Thai political system in such a way that the Move Forward Party may never actually be able to form a government. Even if they did, the threat of a coup would loom large. We then have an extended conversation about what this election means in terms of Thai foreign policy and geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia between the US and China.   

On June 7th, the Professional Golf Association announced a merger with a Saudi backed rival golf league known as LIV Golf. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, which is controlled by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, backed this deal. The chairman of the Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund will serve as the chairman of this new yet-to-be named golf league.  In other words, Saudi Arabia just bought the sport of Professional Golf. 

This move comes on the heels of other Saudi forays into professional sports, including the purchase of the Newcastle United Premier League soccer team in 2021.

The Saudi purchase of professional golf is a clear example of an attempt to rehabilitate its public image through sports, otherwise known as "sportswashing."  

Joining me to discuss this Saudi public diplomacy gambit is Alex Ward, National Security Reporter for Politico.  We kick off discussing the lessons learned from Saudi Arabia's purchase of Newcastle United and then have a conversation about the PGA merger in the context of Saudi Arabia's politics and foreign policy. 

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In the early hours of Tuesday, June 6th a major Dam on the Dnipro river in Russian occupied Ukraine suffered catastrophic damage. Floodwaters are now rushing downstream and sending tens of thousands of people fleeing.

The path of these destructive floodwaters roughly follows the frontlines between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Southern Ukraine and this breach comes just as Ukraine's much anticipated counteroffensive gets underway. This obviously raises the question: did Russia sabotage the Kakhovka dam to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive? 

I'm joined today by the former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst.  He is a retired career foreign service office and now the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. We kick off discussing the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, including the likelihood that it was deliberately destroyed by Russia. We then have an extended conversation about what the destruction of this dam means for Ukraine's counteroffensive.\

The second leading cause of death from infectious disease around the world is Tuberculosis, following COVID. 10 million people globally develop TB each year, and in 2021 1.6 million died from Tuberculosis. 

So why is a disease that is preventable and curable still inflicting such a major toll on the health and welfare of so many people and what can be done to reduce the burden of TB around the world? Joining me to answer these questions and more is Dr. Lucica Ditiu, executive director of the Stop TB Partnership. 

We kick off discussing trends in TB around the world including how covid impacted efforts to reach global targets around reducing sickness and death from TB. We then have a longer conversation about what can be done to accelerate progress against this deadly disease. 

In 1993, governments around the world agreed to a landmark arms control treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention. It prohibits countries from building chemical weapons, using chemical weapons and requires countries to destroy whatever stockpiles of chemical weapons they may have. 

The way treaties like this work is that governments come together every few years for what are known as "Review Conferences" in which they assess past progress and set priorities for the coming years.  In the middle of May, members of the Chemical Weapons Convention gathered in The Hague for a five year review conference. And that is where things hit a few snags, according to my guest today Mary Wareham. 

Mary Wareham is the advocacy director of the Arms Division of Human Rights Watch. We kick off discussing the history and some successes of the Chemical Weapons Convention. We then have a longer discussion about the complicated diplomatic dynamics of maintaining an an effective ban on chemical weapons use and development. 

On Wednesday May 17th, Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso invoked a constitutional provision known as muerte cruzada, or "mutual death." The move dissolves the parliament and enables Lasso to rule by decree for six months when new elections are held.

This political upheaval comes at a time of surging violence in Ecuador, driven largely by gang violence related to cocaine trafficking. Joining me to discuss the political crisis in Ecuador, explain what is driving a surge in violence in the county -- and the connection between the Ecuador's politics and rising crime is Glaeldys Gonzalez a fellow for the Latin America and Carribbean program at the international crisis group. 

The study and analysis of Great Power Competition is all the vogue in international relations and foreign policy circles. And understandably so: the rise of China, the actions of Russia and America's approach to geopolitics are indeed setting the conditions in which some big global shifts are playing out.

But that does not mean one should ignore the role that small states are playing in international politics. If you overlook small states, you are missing a complete picture of international relations today. 

My guest today, Tom Long, is author of the book  "A Small State's Guide to Influence in World Politics" and associate professor of international relations at the University of Warwick.  He studies how smaller states have successfully shaped internationally affairs to their advantage.

The year is 2026, and China has just launched an invasion of Taiwan.

What happens next was the subject of a comprehensive non-classified War Game simulation lead by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Our guest, Mark Cancian, is a retired Marine Colonel and senior advisor at CSIS and one of the lead conveners of this War Game. 

We kick off discussing how the War Game was designed before having a longer conversation about the outcomes it predicted. This includes death tolls, the role of Japan and whether or not the US and Chinese homeland are attacked.  I'll cut to the chase: after 24 iterations, the most probable outcome was the defeat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but at a staggeringly high cost to Taiwan and the United States. 

Ukraine is widely expected to launch a counter-offensive to reclaim territory captured by Russia. And if Ukraine is successful on the battlefield, Russia may float a ceasefire proposal, that more likely than not would be disingenuous and merely an attempt to stall for time. 

These are some of the conclusions of a recent Red Team exercise conducted by the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) which gathered a number of experts to predict Russia's approach to a potential ceasefire negotiation. Joining me to discuss their findings and how a Russian ceasefire proposal might upend international support for Ukraine is Dr. Paul Williams, founder of Public International Law & Policy Group which is a pro bono law firm supporting states and governments involved in, among other things peace and ceasefire.