Deep Economic Thoughts

Wall Street's perfect AI exit strategy. Everyone is screaming "buy" on everything AI and Nvidia-adjacent. But here's what they aren't telling you: The IPO window is wide open for one reason only—to let insiders cash out. In today's episode, we connect the dots between the AI hype machine, the surge in tech filings, and the quiet exodus of early investors. Don't let bankers use your capital to fund their liquidity event. Tune in to learn how to spot the difference between a real opportunity and a euphoria-driven trap. #AI #Nvidia #IPO #Investing #WallStreet #RetailInvestors #TechStocks #Podcast

For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim

Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable).

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Recorded from Hong Kong, this episode is a personal reflection on a major milestone: the 2025 expansion of our asset management company from its SEC-regulated base in Los Angeles to a new SFC-regulated entity in Asia.

Marking nearly 30 years in investment management (since 1996), this move is a strategic step to enrich our research mosaic. We discuss why being physically present in a major financial hub, adjacent to the world's second-largest economy, is about more than data—it's about accessing qualitative insights, conversations, and perspectives that charts alone can't provide.

We delve into our disciplined research framework: the vital importance of asking the right questions, the irreplaceable value of face-to-face professional networking (like CFA societies), and how our global team synthesizes this into weekly investment committee decisions.

The conversation culminates in a direct and passionate challenge to Financial Advisors using TAMPs (Turnkey Asset Management Platforms). Compliance is not enough. True fiduciary duty requires advisors to become experts on their TAMP's process—to question portfolio managers, understand the investment philosophy deeply, and never settle for an "adequate" solution. It's a call to elevate the standard of due diligence for the ultimate benefit of the client.

Key Topics Covered:

The strategic "why" behind expanding from Los Angeles to Hong Kong.

Building a research "mosaic": Combining global data with on-the-ground qualitative insight.

The discipline of a formal, evolving investment committee process.

A 30-year perspective on active risk management and alpha generation.

A Critical Challenge: Why Financial Advisors must go beyond surface-level TAMP usage and become true students of their investment partners.

Listen for: An authentic take on global finance, research philosophy, and a compelling call to action for advisors who want to deepen their practice and uphold the highest standard of client trust.

For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim

Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable).

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities.

For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog

Copyright © 2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US.

For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog

Copyright © 2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, discusses the historical relationship dynamic demonstrated by a falling US Dollar value and the resulting impact on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. Specifically, he focuses on the decade from 2005 to 2015, which was marked by the Great Financial Crisis and a USD value that oscillated wildly from -15% to +19%.

For details on the Research Highlight discusseed in this podcast visit, https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-03-26-2025

For more general information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright ©2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview.

Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT.

For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright ©2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education.

(Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA)

For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

In preparing for my September 2024 Forbes article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy.

Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-09-04-2024

For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

As discussed in detail last summer (seeResearch Highlights and Forbes article), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards equities or away from them.

Recall that Earnings Yield is equal to Earnings Per Share divided by its Stock Share Price. By simply inverting the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio, you attain the Earnings Yield, which standardizes a stock's attractiveness as a cash flow instrument (typically stocks are bought for capital growth or dividend yield or some combination thereof) relative to other cash flows instruments (typically bonds for fixed income purposes).

Updated Research Highlight with data referenced in this episode found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-08-07-2024

Copyright © 2024 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM®, explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years have not held this relationship. Ivan examines what may be driving this valuation differential, and what that may mean for risk assessment on a forward-looking basis.

For more information on this subject, please visit the charts referenced in this episode at https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-07-03-2024

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the next 10 years.

For more information on this Working Paper, please visit NBER at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487

For more information on AWAIM®, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketplace participants.

To view the companion chart to this episode, please visit: alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-05-01-2024

For more information on our economic outlook or to submit your questions, please visit: alignewealth.com

Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.

The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ratios may indicate stocks are broadly undervalued. Currently, this ratio stands at 186%.

However, what if you applied this formula to specific sectors to discern whether that particular market segment is overvalued or undervalued relative to one another? That's the premise of this episode, where the data and charts related to its discussion can be found on our website's Research Highlights at https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-04-09-2024

For more information or to submit your questions, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household savings, debt levels, and interest rate on credit cards. This discussion focuses on the confluence of these metrics to illustrate an increasingly stressed out economy and labor market.

For more information, charts, and data on this subject, please visit https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-03-06-2024

© 2024 AWAIM®

AWAIM Website: https://www.alignewealth.com/

In this episode, Founder & CIO, Ivan Illan discusses the myriad issues around having a significantly positive US Output Gap - an important economic metric that reveals underlying inflationary pressures in an economy.

For more information, charts and other details related to this episode, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-02-07-2024

© 2024 AWAIM®

REPLAY: On-Air Live interview of Ivan Illan on AM830 from "The Bruce Cook Conversation" orignally broadcast on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6PM PST.

Ivan and Bruce chat about various economic issues impacting folks today from interest rates and taxes to debt and the upcoming election. Wide scope of topics covered and additional commentary on domestic and international risks within the capital markets for 2024.

https://www.alignewealth.com/

In this final episode for 2023, bestselling Dummies author, Forbes Finance Council member, Founder & CIO Ivan Illan, shares some preliminary insights as to what may play out during 2024 for both stock and bond markets globally.

He highlights the period beginning March 2022, which coincides with the Federal Reserve's initiating a restrictive U.S. monetary policy. Since then, stock and bond markets have been struggling to make sense of the impact, eeking out low single digit gains in stocks and still negative returns for bonds.

For more on Ivan's perspectives, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/people/ivanillan/

© Copyright 2023 Ivan M. Illan, AWAIM®

Original Air Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:30PM PST

Listen to the replay from the on-air interview of Founder & Chief Investment Officer Ivan Illan conducted by The Conversation's Host Bruce Cook. Ivan returns to the show answering a wide variety of questions about the US economy, upcoming elections, inflation, and the Federal Reserve.

https://www.am830.net/show/bruce-cook-show/

To learn more about Ivan Illan and AWAIM®, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

© 2023, Ivan Illan and AWAIM

This episode includes references to data shared in Ivan's upcoming Forbes.com article tentatively entitled, "For Decades Fed Funds Remained Higher Than The Inflation Rate, May Be Once Again". Citing nearly 50 years of historical averages regarding the Effective Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year Mortgage Rate, 10-2 Year US Treasury Spread, and the 10 Year US Treasury, Ivan discusses how normal it has been for the US economy to experience sustained periods of relatively higher fed funds rate versus the inflation rate.

Since October 1976, the average US Inflation Rate has been 3.68%. Today, the most recent inflation print is eerily similar at 3.70%. Understanding the history of the Fed Funds Rate and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to maintain labor markets and economic growth are critical to navigate the financial markets over the next few years.

For more information, please check out these resources:

AWAIM Research Highlights: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Ivan's Forbes Articles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/people/ivanillan/

AWAIM Website and Disclosures: https://www.alignewealth.com/licensing-information

© 2023, Ivan Illan and Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®)

A more casual companion piece to Ivan's article published in Forbes on October 19, 2023, entitled "What A Flattening Yield Curve Means For Future Fiscal Fitness"

Discussion on the importance of understanding the segment of the yield curve to which an investor has exposure. Also, a review of the basics on the time value of money - a related concept to yield curve dynamics.

For more information, to submit your questions, or educational resources, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

© 2023 Ivan Illan & Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Managment (AWAIM®)

Regulatory Disclosures: https://www.alignewealth.com/licensing-information

In this episode Ivan cites recent PMI declines, while reframing the data that often minimizes the manufacturing sector's share of and relevance to the U.S. economy. A discussion follows on how nominal GDP data is referenced routinely, instead of real GDP. The conclusion is surprising to many - even finance professionals - regarding the enduring significance of the manufacturing sector.

Technological advancement is usually paired with unrest, struggle and generalized economic pain due to shifts in labor market demand. Ivan discusses how this has played out in previously technological advancements, and how it may be playing out today very slowly, but surely.

©2023 Ivan Illan and Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®)

https://www.alignewealth.com/

In this episode I talk about the recent US government debt downgrade by Fitch, why it happened, why it's not a big surprise, and what it might mean for everyone going forward.

© 2023 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

In this episode, Ivan Illan rejoined Bruce Cook on The Bruce Cook Conversation, which was broadcast live on-air throughout Southern California and live streamed on KLAA AM 830 Angels Radio on Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 6PM PT.

As a returning show guest, Ivan offered new perspectives and insights to many questions that Bruce presented regarding the state of the U.S. economy and how people might consider preparing themselves financially and mentally for the forecasted challenges that may lie ahead.

Follow-up questions for Ivan can be emailed to info@alignewealthllc.com

© 2023, Ivan Illan, KLAA AM 830 Angels Radio, The Bruce Cook Conversation

If you're wondering why your investment portfolio seems to be lagging the S&P 500 Index so far this year, it's because the market has bad breadth.

Bad (or, in this case meaning, very narrow) market breadth illustrates that only a very few minority of companies are responsible for the majority of the return seen in the index. In this episode, I share insghts into this dynamic (e.g., Year-to-date only 28% of S&P 500 constituent stocks are performing at or better than their index, as compared to 45% of S&P 400 constituent stocks are doing better than their index).

© 2023 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

Yesterday (Mother's Day), I returned as a half-hour guest on Bruce Cook Conversations on AM830 Angels Radio. This podcast contains the full interview replay which was broadcast live throughout Southern California on Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:30PM PT.

Topics covered included Bruce's rapid fire questions on the state of the U.S. economy, debt ceiling negotiations, China, student loan debt bailout, California reparations, and much more.

© Copyright 2023, Ivan M. Illán, AWAIM®

Don't be alarmed by the harse tone of this episode. A contractionary phase in the monetary cycle is a difficult and challenging one for labor, real estate, and capital markets. After years of expanding the monetary base, which had led to misallocations of inexpensive capital, those funds must be now eviscerated.

Ivan explains the only two ways that capital is necessarily destroyed in a contractionary monetary policy environment.

© Copyright 2023, Ivan M. Illán, AWAIM®

Remember that ad campiagn in the 1980's, "Where's the Beef?!"... In this episode, Ivan exclaims, "Where's the Risk?!", in reference to the seemingly non-existent level of risk in the lower-end spectrum of investment grade bonds. Referencing data shared in AWAIM's latest research highlight, Ivan shares how the OAS-to-Yield Ratio may reveal another perspective on the bond market's current risk assessment.

There seems to be no shortage of risky things at play in the macro economy: the Trump trial, a threatening U.S. government shutdown, fierce political divisiveness, and the looming refinance risk for issuers from lower cost maturing bonds. But, for some reason, market participants are unphased... for now.

For more information on Ivan's registered investment adviser, AWAIM, and other research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright 2023, Ivan Illan & AWAIM

This episode contains unscripted comments on the perceived burgeoning "banking crisis" and Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony that occurred earlier this week.

© 2023, Ivan M. Illán

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a seemingly phenomenal new jobs figure for January 2023. For the past several months, there have been many hundreds of thousand of new jobs created each month.

But looking back over the past year to the types of jobs (part-time versus full-time) being created in the U.S. economy reveals an uneasy familiarity to prior economic cycles leading up to recessionary periods.

© 2023, Ivan M. Illán ivanillan.com/contact/

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank is technically insolvent (or bankrupt in layman's terms). Of course, as "buyer of last resort", the U.S. Treasury would not allow the Fed to cease operations legally. Instead, the Fed maintains operations in the red (booking losses in the form of a "deferred asset") until such time it makes money again when it can once again make remittances to the U.S. Treasury. I talk about the broader complications this presents in the current environment, and to be mindful of the "headwinds" this may create in the capital markets.

Get ready for more stock market volatility, as the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world implement tightening monetary policy.