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876 - Bob Moriarty: China is Taking Control of the Gold Market
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- 876 - Bob Moriarty: China is Taking Control of the Gold Market
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob is founder of 321gold and 321energy.com, and a former Marine Corps fighter pilot during Vietnam. Moriarty believes the year 2024 could be catastrophic due to geopolitical issues and a greater financial crisis but sees opportunities in gold and silver, which have broken out and are expected to continue for the next decade. He emphasizes sentiment and China's control of the gold market as key drivers of their prices. Moriarty discusses potential peace in the Middle East after Israel's conflict with Iran, questioning the sustainability of the US sending large aid packages due to bankruptcy.
Moriarty advocates for ignoring external factors like interest rates, currencies, and politics when investing in gold and silver, using sentiment as a useful tool. He highlights China's significant impact on the gold market and the potential negative vote against US treasuries and the dollar. Moriarty expresses concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on real estate markets, especially commercial property. He also discusses the recent surge in base metals as undervalued commodities and a shift towards commodities from overvalued assets like stocks.
Bob emphasizes the importance of understanding current developments in economy and society, including immigration policies, corruption, and diplomacy. He criticizes the increasing divide between ordinary people and the establishment and advocates for conversation and understanding between opposing sides. He criticizes US foreign policy in Ukraine and advocates for diplomacy to resolve conflicts. He also discusses the impact of misinformation on society and expresses skepticism towards media narratives.
Talking Points From This Episode
* He sees 2024 as a potential crisis year but believes in gold opportunities; emphasizes sentiment and China's influence.
* Relative calm in the Middle East is possible after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, but US aid sustainability questioned.
* Misinformation if not outright falsehoods in the mainstream media and the importance of diploamcy globally.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - A Catastrophic Year?2:00 - Whose Driving Metals?4:52 - Warning Signals5:43 - Oil Prices & Iran9:10 - Balance of Power13:30 - Aid to Ukraine19:37 - Measuring Sentiment21:46 - Lessons in FOMO23:24 - Eastern Gold Shift25:10 - Mortgages & Real Estate27:19 - Base Metal Indications28:37 - Government & Corruption30:57 - Reasons for Optimism32:12 - Diplomacy & Conversation37:53 - Alt Media & Opinions43:53 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.Thu, 25 Apr 2024 - 46min - 875 - Axel Merk: How Funding for the Junior Mining Sector is Under Threat
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors.
Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment.
Axel discusses Saba Capital Management's ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund's mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA's unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - ASA Closed End Fund3:42 - Funding for Juniors10:43 - The Monetary Environment15:26 - Fed & Distorted Data17:57 - Recent Moves in Gold20:50 - Closed Vs. Open Funds25:08 - Strategic Investments26:42 - ASA Board Concerns32:16 - SABA Contested Proxy35:10 - A Call to Shareholders37:30 - Friday Apr 26 Vote41:06 - Future for the Fund?44:33 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerkWebsite: https://www.merkinvestments.com/Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18Website: https://asaltd.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaew
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.
Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.
Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.Tue, 23 Apr 2024 - 46min - 874 - Christopher Aaron: We are Experiencing Precious Metals History
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.
Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.
Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.
Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.
Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio15:52 - Opportunity?18:20 - Breakouts & Retests23:14 - Fundamentals & China27:00 - Catalysts & Israel32:50 - Inflation Narratives38:30 - Fed Shift?40:33 - Silver & Resistance44:45 - Monetary Silver?45:54 - Miners & Resources51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks55:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Importance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surges
* Markets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.
* Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington...Mon, 22 Apr 2024 - 58min - 873 - John Rubino: What Do You Get When Central Banks are Panic Buying Gold?
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Rubino, a former Wall Street financial analyst and author, to discuss the current bull market in gold. Rubino asserts that gold's intrinsic value is significantly higher than its present price, which could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis. He also posits that a potential collapse of the financial system due to debt could lead to a return to a gold-backed currency or a currency reset.
They explore the implications of inflation and currency devaluation on various assets including stocks, real estate, bonds, and gold. John argues that adjusting investment numbers for inflation offers a different perspective on asset value over time. He warns about potential risks in the financial system, such as a commercial real estate crash or an equities bear market. He also discusses the deficit in the silver market, which could result in significant price spikes and potential defaults on futures contracts.
Despite uncertainty, John suggests investment strategies for investing in real assets like gold and silver. Investors should consider gold as a long-term investment and focus on positive goals during uncertain times to build capital for future challenges. Gold is currently seen as a store of value, but demand for it is minimal but starting to rise. Once gold breaks through resistance and support levels, it could lead to a significant run in the market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Gold Market Developments4:10 - Gold Backing & Debt8:15 - Who Will Buy US Bonds?12:45 - Inflation Outlook17:28 - Asset Valuations22 :38 - Gold Drivers & Geopolitics27:26 - Next Financial Crisis?33:10 - Silver & Supply Issues38:10 - Silver Industrial Demand42:38 - Investment Demand & FOMO47:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Gold's potential value increase, reaching $5,000-$10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis.
* Risks of financial panic, potential scenarios like commercial real estate crash or equities bear market.
* Investment strategies proposed to protect against times of crises.
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.Thu, 18 Apr 2024 - 48min - 872 - Ravi Sood: All the Monetary Alarms are Deafening
Tom welcomes back Ravi Sood to the show to discuss the many changes in the economy and mining industry. Ravi touches upon various topics related to the global financial system, gold prices, and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He discusses the lack of significant changes in the financial system since the 1970s and the potential role of Bitcoin in challenging traditional monetary systems. He also highlights the uncertainty and potential risks in the current economic situation due to the pandemic and other factors. The conversation also delves into the importance of investing in physical commodities like gold and other minerals, as well as the role of technology in driving demand for these resources.
Furthermore, they explore the effects of a strong US dollar on the economy and suggests alternative policies to improve trade balance. The discussion also covers the challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and the potential impact of CBDCs. The gold market is analyzed, with the author noting signs of optimism amidst a perceived bubble, and the mining industry's financial issues are also discussed, along with the interest in renewable energy transition and the cyclical nature of commodities business.
Throughout the interview, Ravi emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the financial system and the importance of making informed decisions based on current economic conditions and potential future changes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction3:30 - Gold, Bias & Sound Money10:17 - Global Can Kicking17:42 - A No Win Scenario?20:00 - US Commodity Demand22:28 - Feds Levers & Control Risk26:44 - Bitcoin, Banks, & ETFs33:50 - Commercial Banks & Economy36:05 - Unhedged Mining44:52 - Gold Highs & Reality49:05 - Mining Industry Health56:17 - Energy & GDP Correlation59:00 - 3 Phases of New Energy1:02:20 - Green Energy Storage1:05:04 - Commodities & Capital1:07:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The financial system has not seen a major shift since the 1970s, with concerns about sustainability of the existing monetary systems.
* Physical commodities like gold and other minerals could help the United States address economic challenges by creating jobs and reducing reliance on foreign currency.
* The gold market exhibits signs of optimism for an eventual end to its current bubble, with factors such as increased production and lower interest rates affecting its future.
Guest Links:Website: https://golcondagold.comWebsite: https://evrec.energy
Ravi Sood is Chairman of Golconda Gold and an experienced financier focused on emerging markets. Mr. Sood was the founder and former CEO of Navina Asset Management, a Toronto-based investment firm that was acquired by a major financial institution. Mr. Sood also serves as a director of several companies including Blockchain Power Trust, Feronia Inc., and Eve & Co. Previously Mr. Sood was a director of ICC Labs (acquired) and Elgin Mining (acquired).
Ravi Sood has a bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo.Wed, 17 Apr 2024 - 1h 10min - 871 - Spaces: Precious Metals Market Sentiment & Analysis with Bob, Vince, and Jim
This is a rebroadcast of our April 10 Twitter Spaces focusing on the recent metal moves, the metals industry, and overall investor sentiment. Bob Coleman and Vince Lanci discuss the effects of big players in the markets and how investor sentiment remains cautious. Jim discusses why margin requirements have to be adjusted during periods of volatility. Vince and Bob discusses at length the various big players in the market and how they influence it along with their general strategies. Lastly, Bob discusses the role of ETF's and the current premiums on physical metals.
Note: Unfortunately, the last hour of this spaces was not recorded properly.
Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Vince LanciSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.comTue, 16 Apr 2024 - 1h 03min - 870 - Simon Hunt: Will the Dollar or Bond Market Be Sacrificed First in the Next Crisis?
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. They discuss various economic and geopolitical issues shaping the global landscape. Topics range from potential conflicts and their impact on markets to the shift towards physical assets and a gold-backed monetary system. Simon touches upon underreported inflation, economic instability in America, China's role in reshaping the global economy, potential crisis scenarios, and the importance of diplomacy versus war.
Simon is concerned about the risk of conflicts escalating, with Russia as a key player, and the emergence of gold-backed currencies to counteract perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies. Additionally, they discuss the significance of rising interest rates, potential crises, and implications for U.S. elections and global geopolitical outcomes. Throughout, Simon encourages caution and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic trends and geopolitical dynamics.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - The World & War5:38 - Equity Complacency7:02 - Russia & Syria9:17 - Economic Catalysts14:32 - Serious Correction18:18 - Leveraged Bank System19:24 - Capital Shifts & China22:57 - Gold Backed Currency29:26 - Dollar & Rates30:53 - Chinese Demographics33:50 - China's Manufacturing37:40 - Nuclear Energy39:31 - China Debt42:32 - Chasing Rainbows44:30 - Europe In Recession48:15 - Inflation Issues52:25 - Expect More Unknowns53:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Geopolitical tensions could lead to significant market shocks in equity and base metal markets before mid-year due to underreported inflation and weak economic activity.
* Shift towards gold-backed currencies is inevitable as countries seek alternatives to perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies, with China and Russia likely taking a leading role.
* Diplomacy could prevent war, but tensions between the US and countries like Russia suggest that war may be an outcome if Washington continues to support the dollar at the expense of its treasury market.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.Thu, 11 Apr 2024 - 54min - 869 - Tony Greer: There is No Bubble In Gold
Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to delve into the various market trends and investment strategies. Greer, who is bullish on gold, S&P, industrial miners, and uranium, while bearish on bonds, shares his perspective on the current economic climate. He references the volatile year of 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, and believes that if similar circumstances arise again, the Fed will respond with rate cuts, leading to a bullish stock market environment. The commodity sector, particularly natural resources and housing, has seen a significant shift from tech markets, which remain mixed or flat. Greer attributes this trend to potential geopolitical tensions and increasing ISM manufacturing figures, possibly pointing towards the early stages of a World War III scenario.
Greer discusses his bullish stance on gold due to central bank buying and physical demand. While some may view the recent gold rally as a head fake, he remains committed to the precious metal. He believes that declining total gold ETF holdings could indicate less speculation and increased interest in physical gold ownership. The speakers also touch upon the potential implications of increasing national debt on the US dollar and the possibility that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will decline against gold. They ponder if the current trends in oil, copper, and other commodities represent a cyclical shift from underinvestment to materials necessary for economic growth.
Throughout their discussion, they emphasize the importance of staying informed about market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. Greer suggests repositioning portfolios towards natural resources and industrial sectors, despite slower growth compared to tech stocks, as these markets may have more significant impacts with smaller amounts of capital. The conversation highlights potential long-term consequences of current economic trends, including national debt levels and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Bullish Stocks & Gold9:23 - Fed Games & Inflation15:12 - Gold Rally & Disorder17:15 - Gold Vs. Silver18:12 - Metals & Frustration20:30 - Capital Rotation23:17 - Gold ETF Declines24:42 - Metal Investing26:20 - The WHO Quagmire28:44 - Confidence in Media30:18 - Exponential Debt31:49 - Oil & Copper Cycles33:52 - Peak Frustration36:40 - Uranium Fundamentals39:13 - Time to Pay Attention42:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Tony is bullish on both gold, miners and the S&P 500.
* Declining Gold ETF Holdings could signal a shift from paper to physical.
* Tony discusses the importance of paying careful attention to your portfolio this year.
Guest Links:Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 199...Wed, 10 Apr 2024 - 43min - 868 - David Brady: The Economy is in Shambles, But Metals Are Still Heading Higher
Tom welcomes back David Brady to discuss future market movements based on Fed decisions and current geopolitics. David suggests that investors should invest in physical silver and gold as a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and cyber attacks. He believes that the pullback from recent highs will be shallow but may require a big event to drive it. David mentions that some people are suggesting $100 silver is a slam dunk and that high beta miners are going to go through the stratosphere. David emphasizes that investing in these assets can be expensive, so people should pick an amount they feel comfortable with and buy as much as possible.
This episode also highlights the current equity market trends and how gold and silver are performing. David explains that the recent increase in the price of gold and silver is not due to a specific event but rather a collective reaction to the loss of confidence in the economy. He suggests that the price of gold and silver may continue to rise, as more people seek safety in these assets during times of uncertainty.
The interview also touches on the potential impact of the 2020 US presidential election on the value of gold and silver. David believes that the current economic and political environment may lead to a stock market crash and a subsequent decline in the value of assets like gold and silver, which would benefit their investors. However, he also mentions other potential risks facing the economy, such as the banking system, wars, and the loss of confidence in government institutions.
David believes that investors have good reason to be bullish on the current precious metal market conditions and expects continued growth in the coming years. However, he also acknowledges the potential risks facing the economy and the political landscape, which could lead to a significant decline in the broader equity markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Gold Train All Aboard?5:06 - Rate Cuts & Dollar10:19 - Demand & Confidence12:40 - COT Data & Metrics19:22 - Stock Market Thoughts24:12 - Silver Vs. Gold?29:12 - Portfolio Positioning34:48 - Valuations & Silver39:42 - Confiscation & The East43:00 - Housing & Employment45:10 - Gloom, Doom, & Popcorn50:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The recent increase in gold and silver prices is likely driven by a collective reaction to economic uncertainty, not a specific event.
* Investing in physical silver and gold can provide a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and other black swan events.
* A pullback from recent highs may be shallow but requires a big event to drive it.
Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/Fund Website: https://4779Capital.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward,Thu, 04 Apr 2024 - 53min - 867 - Adam Hamilton: From a Cyclical Low to a Super Bull – Why This Could be Gold’s Decade
Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator.
According to Hamilton, the recent rally in gold prices is primarily driven by fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, with seasonality playing a small role. He noted that gold stocks are undervalued compared to gold prices, presenting a significant opportunity for investors.
Hamilton pointed out that physical demand, such as Indian weddings and Chinese New Year, contributes to the underlying strength of the gold market. However, he emphasized that sentiment and herd mentality are crucial factors in the current rally, particularly during the spring season when optimism and exuberance tend to increase.
Adam also discussed the Commitments of Traders Report (COT) and how it can be used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends in gold futures markets. He tracks changes in speculators' long and short positions over time to identify periods of buying or selling that may indicate a change in market sentiment or trend.
Hamilton also highlighted the importance of tracking gold ETF holdings as an indicator of investment demand for gold. However, he noted that it is essential to distinguish between physical demand and ETF demand when analyzing the gold market. He suggested breaking down western physical demand into categories such as bars and coins and foreign demand from regions such as Europe and Asia.
Hamilton believes that there is still significant potential for investment demand to drive up the price of gold, with speculators having only completed 55% of their total potential buying since the uptrend began in early October. He also pointed out that retail investors will drive the surge in demand for physical gold, leading to reports of shortages and pushing up the physical price.
Adam is interested in the potential of physically-backed digital gold currencies, especially among younger generations who are attracted to digital assets. He believes there will be high demand for a Bitcoin-like tradable vehicle backed by physical gold, making it easier for people to own and transact with gold.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Recent Gold Moves2:36 - Seasonality & Asia4:30 - Miner Performance5:45 - Seasons & Sentiment7:46 - Investor Shift?9:48 - Supply & Demand11:53 - 2020 Vs. 202413:33 - Driving Factors15:43 - Gold Indicators18:20 - Types of Gold Demand21:00 - West Retail Buying?23:38 - Mining Sectors24:58 - Fundamentals & FOMO28:26 - Money Supply/Inflation32:06 - Hedonic Adjustments32:47 - Compelling Thoughts?35:32 - ETFs & Physical Gold37:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Gold prices rally due to fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and seasonality.
* Undervalued gold stocks present a significant opportunity for investors.
* Physically-backed digital gold currencies could attract younger generations.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting,Wed, 03 Apr 2024 - 39min - 866 - Keith Weiner: Will Gold & Silver Prices Soar in a 2008-Style Economic Collapse?
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith discusses his 2024 gold outlook report which focuses on cause and effect in markets and economy, analyzing the impact of rising interest rates on GDP components like consumption and wages. Higher interest rates reduce the burden of paying wages but also decrease credit availability, affecting businesses' ability to operate. Consumers may sell assets as wages and other expenses tighten up.
Keith discusses the use of lagging indicators like employment and yield curve inversion to predict economic trends. Employment is said to be a lagging indicator because it reacts to changes in the economy with a delay, and its predictive value is reduced due to the Feds influence on employers. Yield curve inversion, where long-term interest rates are lower than short-term ones, has historically signaled an upcoming recession. However, Keith argues that this indicator should be interpreted carefully because the Fed only controls short-term rates, and a yield curve un-inversion may actually signal the Fed's reaction to a credit crisis rather than its cause.
The low interest rate environment of the past 40 years has driven businesses to take on more risk and leverage to achieve returns. This has resulted in the creation of "zombie companies" that have profits less than their interest expense and cannot survive without artificially low interest rates. A recent study found that 20% of corporate debt was zombie debt before interest rates started to rise. The impact of hiking interest rates on these companies is uncertain, but it has not yet resulted in widespread issues.
It seems that the current economic situation, with high inflation and rising interest rates, is leading to a process of supply destruction in many industries. This means that in order for companies to maintain or increase their return on capital, they will need to destroy a significant amount of supply, which will likely result in job losses, bankruptcies, and a lot of pain for entrepreneurs and investors. The market will only reward the best and luckiest actors in this situation, as those who got loans earlier or have lower cost structures may be better positioned to survive. This process is not necessarily merit-based, but rather determined by timing and luck.
Keith, who predicted a $2300 gold price for this year, notes we are close to reaching it. This rise is due to physical demand in the East and not speculation as seen before. Gold may drop less during a crisis compared to other assets and could make new highs soon after. There's less leverage in the gold market now, leading to less price drop during liquidation and potentially higher prices post-crisis. The LIBOR rate, previously an indicator of unsecured credit rates between banks, is no longer quoted and has been replaced by the SOFR rate, which reflects policy as it is a secured overnight funding rate using Treasury bonds as collateral. Gold's future price should be higher than spot due to carry costs, primarily interest rates. The calculated fundamental price attempts to determine the price of gold if speculators did not influence the market. Dubai sees high demand for physical gold, with an estimated 500-700 tons a year being unofficially exported through retail purchases by tourists.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Spending & Wages5:07 - Consumer Squeeze7:36 - Lagging Indicators10:48 - Yield Curve Inversion14:40 - Returns, Risks, & Zombies22:02 - GDP & Gov't Spending23:23 - Credit Tightness24:37 - Supply/Demand Issues29:12 - Fed & Capital Costs37:07 - 2024 Gold Performance41:28 - Next Crisis & Fed Cuts43:54 - SOFOR & LIBOR48:12 - Jewelry Trade & Dubai50:47 - Wra...Tue, 02 Apr 2024 - 51min - 865 - Jeffrey Christian: From Boom to Bust, Anticipating Gold’s Role in a Global Economic Downturn
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics speaks with Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeff discusses his background and what brought about the creation of the CPM Group.
CPM Group's research department was established in the late 1960s to gather data and estimate supply and demand for gold and silver as the gold standard was ending and silver was being removed from coinage and currency systems. The company has a strong track record of accurately projecting prices due to their continuous gathering of data and maintaining a global network of contacts.
Jeff discusses the recent demand for gold from investors has been high, with net investment demand for physical gold totaling 25, 26, and 24 million ounces in the last three years. This level of demand tends to cause an increase in gold prices, as seen by record annual average gold prices every year for the past four years. The price of gold has increased significantly since 2000 and is expected to continue to rise in 2024 and 2025 due to several macroeconomic drivers.
Despite inflation coming down and interest rates rising, investment demand for gold remains strong. Governments and central banks are buying gold to diversify their reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. China, in particular, has a growing appetite for gold due to centuries of political disunion and civil wars, making the yellow metal a safe haven for them.
Jeff discusses the impact of The Shanghai Gold Exchange in taking some market share from London, with Chinese investors paying higher premiums for gold compared to the West. The Chinese currency's lack of free trade also affects gold prices in the country. While some gold has moved to China, there are still multiples of the amount of gold built up in Switzerland over the last 10-20 years.
The amount of gold being mined is down somewhat from its peak due to reduced exploration and development spending during a period of lower gold prices. However, higher gold prices in recent years have led to an increase in investment in exploration and development. The capital markets tend to be short-term and cyclical, which can create challenges for long-term financing needs in the industry.
Lastly, Jeff discusses the lack of interest from investors and speculators in gold miners is due to a range of issues, including changes in the equity markets and institutional investment practices. The gap between the performance of smaller companies and large companies has never been wider, making it more challenging for smaller mining companies to access capital.
CPM Group's 2024 Gold Yearbook provides in-depth information on the gold market and its trends, including charts and valuable historical data not found elsewhere.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - CME Research History7:18 - Recent Gold Demand10:10 - Main Macro Drivers12:48 - CME Gold Outlook17:44 - Fed Rates Normalizing?20:12 - U.S. Debt Servicing29:16 - Dollar & Euro Demand31:38 - Dot Plots & Projections33:10 - Gold & Election Uncertainty36:48 - Media Narrative Divide38:40 - Impact of Bitcoin40:30 - Demand During Crisis?44:42 - Lower Rates & Gold?47:34 - China & Gold50:55 - Shanghai & Pricing54:14 - Production & Demand55:20 - Miners CapEx & Supply59:58 - Silver's Role1:01:02 - Strategic Role?1:04:15 - CBDCs & Hyperinflation1:10:32 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* CPM Group's gold research spans 30+ years, providing unbiased data & analysis.
* Outlook for gold through 2024/2025 and why demand remains high.
* Thoughts on the Dollar, Treasuries and the long-term debt of the United States.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 - 1h 12min - 864 - Bob Miner: Navigating the Future of Gold Prices at $2750
Bob Miner, a seasoned trader with over 40 years of experience, joined Tom Bodrovics on Palisades to discuss his insights on the current market trends. Bob emphasized that trends and countertrends are based on group psychology and cycles of optimism and pessimism. He shared a story about a "nephew indicator" that is more reliable than economic indicators for understanding market extremes.
Bob discussed his approach to trading in the foreign exchange (FOREX) market, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying fundamentals and technicals of a currency pair. He also discussed the current state of the gold market, noting that it is currently in a bullish uptrend but may be approaching a potential sign of completion.
In addition, Bob discussed commodity and inflation indices, specifically focusing on uranium. He believes that uranium may be about to complete a correction before continuing its upward trend. Bob also emphasized the importance of having a plan in place for exiting positions if signs of a breakout failure appear.
Bob has been studying the U.S. election cycle and its impact on stock market trends for over 25 years, and he has developed a book that is considered the definitive guide to this topic. He provided a table showing the percentage gain for each month from the spring low to the summer high since 1952, indicating that there has only been one year when there was a loss from the spring low to the summer high.
Talking Points From This Episode
* The importance of understanding group psychology and cycles of optimism and pessimism in predicting market trends.
* The relevance of fundamentals and technicals in foreign exchange (FOREX) trading, especially in understanding currency pairs.
* The potential for a bullish uptrend in the gold market, but also the possibility of a sign of completion and the importance of having a plan in place for exiting positions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Robert's Background3:27 - Key Market Catalyst6:23 - Trading Vs. Forecasts10:19 - Exiting Trades12:35 - Fed, Trends & Dollar20:10 - Gold Charts & Trends33:23 - Dollar & Treasuries40:57 - Crude Oil/Inflation44:08 - Analysis & Factors48:00 - Crude Weekly Chart52:10 - URA ETF Monthly56:59 - Elections/Markets Book1:07:42 - Bitcoin Report1:13:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://dynamictraders.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BobAtDTYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrtHpWM3GlFmCdqCkOL3xAg
Robert Miner began his career in the mid-80’s with his first company, Gann-Elliott Educators, where he produced analysis reports for the major financial markets and presented live workshops in the U.S. and overseas. In the mid-90’s he founded Dynamic Traders Group to provide market analysis and trade strategy reports, practical trade education and developed his Dynamic Trader Software.
Robert wrote the first self-study trading course in 1989 where he expanded on and integrated the work of W.D. Gann, R.N. Elliott and his own unique approach to Fib time and price target strategies into his own comprehensive and original approach to multiple time frame time, price, pattern and momentum trade strategies.
Robert’s first book, Dynamic Trading, was named the “Trading Book of the Year” by the SuperTradersAlmanac and he was named the 1997 “Guru of the Year”. His book, High Probability Trading Strategies, has been one of the consistently top selling trading books since its release in 2008.Wed, 27 Mar 2024 - 1h 15min - 863 - David Skarica: The Federal Debt Tsunami is Coming to Crush the Markets this Year
Tom welcomes back David Skarica, publisher and founder of Stockchart of the Day, about a potential threat to market stability. Skarica sees increased frothiness in the market, with Bitcoin ETFs being launched and widespread optimism about Bitcoin reaching 150k - 300k, similar to the behavior seen in 2017 and 2021. He warns that investors should be cautious about the current state of the market and consider investing in assets that can protect their wealth during market downturns.
Skarica points out that the top 10 largest stocks now account for 29% of total market cap, similar to the height of market bubbles, with stocks like NVIDIA and Apple trading based on growth rather than sales. He suggests looking at NVIDIA's chart and other related stocks to understand the market better.
The US government has been issuing more short-term debt instead of taking advantage of low long-term interest rates, which could lead to problems when the debt needs to be rolled over in the future. The market is demanding higher returns on US debt due to increasing debt levels and higher spending, leading to a potential sovereign debt crisis in the US. Commodities and gold markets are also anticipating this potential crisis, with commodities near resistance levels and gold breaking out.
Skarica discusses the reissuing of debt and the potential for a shorter maturity on those bonds due to the real rate of return. He notes that there is currently more demand for two-year treasury bonds, which have a fixed market and yield 4.6%, compared to 10-year bonds, which are subject to price fluctuations and have lower yields. Skarica warns of the risk of buying long-term bonds, as demonstrated by the TLT ETF, which has decreased in value by 40% while only offering a 0.5% yield.
David discusses the potential convergence of various economic cycles, including a debt cycle and a Dow theory cycle, and what this could mean for the price of gold and the capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle in the mining industry. He suggests that loose monetary policy and QE tend to lead to investment in sectors that were not the focus of the previous market bubble, such as emerging markets, commodities, and inflation-protected sectors.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Threats and Markets4:38 - Recent Market Rally10:40 - Corporate Vs Gov't Debt16:58 - Maturities & Bonds26:00 - Dow Transport Avg27:40 - Rates & Market Forces31:21 - Debt Monetization33:28 - Japanese Yen Chart36:29 - Liquidity & Demand38:20 - Fed Talk & Rates41:08 - Soros & Efficient Mkts.44:30 - Bulls & Bear Documentary45:47 - Gold & CAPEX Cycle50:43 - Irrational Markets?55:52 - The Green Dream59:55 - Fun/Risky Markets1:02:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Epsiode
* Investor caution is urged due to market frothiness and potential threat to stability.
* Top 10 largest stocks account for 29% of total market cap, similar to past market bubble peaks.
* US sovereign debt crisis possible due to increasing debt levels, higher spending, and demand for higher returns on debt.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://youtube.com/@scotdayTwitter: https://twitter.com/DavidSkaricaPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/stockchartoftheday
David Skarica is the Founder and Editor of Stock Chart Of The Day a popular newsletter known for its stellar performance in both up and down markets. Skarica entered the financial markets at a very young age and became the youngest person on record to pass the Canadian Securities Course at the age of eighteen.Thu, 21 Mar 2024 - 1h 04min - 862 - Mark O’Byrne: Protecting Wealth in a Cashless Society with Gold & Silver
Tom welcomes Mark O'Byrne back to the show. Mark is the Founder of Health Wealth Gold.
Mark O'Byrne, a precious metals expert, sees value in gold and silver as insurance against various risks, including internet shutdowns and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) technology. He emphasizes that governments with extensive powers can threaten individuals' finances, especially in a cashless society. While cryptocurrencies offer an alternative digital gold, O'Byrne warns of the risks associated with digital assets.
Internet shutdowns, which have occurred in democratic countries like India to control narratives and dissent, can disrupt financial systems, including Bitcoin, gold ETFs, and digital gold platforms. Although off-chain transactions are possible for some Bitcoin users, they aren't viable for many. The vulnerability of digital assets highlights the importance of physical assets like gold and silver in a diversified portfolio.
O'Byrne also discusses potential government restrictions or bans on certain technologies, such as Bitcoin, due to concerns about backdoors into devices. He suggests that most assets are now accessed via usernames and passwords, creating risks if there are vulnerabilities in digital platforms.
The expert also cautions against assuming a global financial crisis and bail-ins are inevitable, noting the importance of understanding the complexities of these issues. In recent times, there has been a significant increase in gold and silver bullion products from new private mints globally, leading to high inventories and decreased premiums for non-legal tender bullion products like silver and gold rounds. However, O'Byrne observes an uptick in demand for both metals and anticipates positive fundamentals for silver due to declining production in Mexico and Peru and increasing international demand.
Despite some concerns about silver stackers potentially selling their holdings when the price reaches $30 per ounce, O'Byrne remains optimistic about the future of silver. He advises investors to take profits instead of waiting for unpredictable price targets set by gurus and suggests following him on Twitter or LinkedIn for updates on his research and insights into the gold and silver markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Interconnected World5:18 - Digital Asset Risks8:08 - Cash During a Crisis11:40 - Censorship & Control20:22 - Bank Failure Risks27:47 - New Mints & Bullion34:42 - ETF Inventories36:12 - Bullion Banks39:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Mark recommends gold and silver as insurance against risks like internet shutdowns, EMP technology, and cashless society threats.
* Governments may restrict or ban certain technologies like Bitcoin due to concerns about digital platform vulnerabilities; physical assets remain crucial in diversified portfolios.
* Despite potential for a silver sell off around $30 per ounce, O'Byrne observes increased demand and positive fundamentals.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/marktobyrneWebsite: https://www.taracoins.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtcpfS0ZjfQEeOyYbw6xeYgLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markobyrne/
Mark O’Byrne is one of the leading authorities on silver and gold internationally with a high profile in social media & mainstream media having appeared on RTE, CNBC, Bloomberg and most Irish and international print, radio and tv media.
Wed, 20 Mar 2024 - 40min - 861 - Mike McGlone: The Fed’s Greatest Test – Markets or Inflation?
Tom welcomes back Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence to the show.
Mike discusses the current state of financial markets, with a particular focus on gold and Bitcoin. He suggested that investors should consider having exposure to both as part of a diversified portfolio, as they serve different purposes. There has been a shift in investor sentiment towards digital assets, with significant outflows from gold ETFs and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. McGlone also cautioned that the US stock market is overdue for a correction, which could impact both gold and Bitcoin.
Regarding the current state of the financial markets, McGlone believes the US stock market is overvalued compared to the rest of the world, and a reversion could lead to a deflationary environment benefiting gold, crude oil, and copper. He also expressed concerns about the relationship between the US and China, stating that a conflict could have significant implications for the global economy.
Regarding gold, McGlone noted its outperformance compared to the S&P 500 since the Fed started tightening in late 2021. However, he also mentioned a gap in the S&P 500 E-minis at around 4600, which could lead to a normal correction in the stock market, benefiting gold by flushing out weak longs and creating a more stable environment.
The interview also touched upon inflation, deflation, and the US dollar. While there has been a deflationary impulse in commodities, inflation is being driven mostly by services due to unprecedented money pumping measures by the Fed. The US dollar will remain unstoppable compared to other fiat currencies, but open discourse is crucial for maintaining its value and strength.
The speaker added that a significant test for the US stock market could trigger a catalyst needed for the West to start driving gold prices along with the East. When this reversion to the mean occurs in the overvalued US stock market, it will have a profound impact on markets. They also suggested following Mike McGlone, an analyst who covers the gold and commodities markets, on Twitter for more information on these topics.
Talking Points From This Episode
* Mike McGlone recommends considering both gold and some Bitcoin in a diversified portfolio.
* He warns of an overdue US stock market correction that could affect markest and potential for deflationary benefits to gold, crude oil, and copper when a reversion occurs.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bottoms on Commodities3:09 - Gold, ETFs, & Bitcoin8:54 - Metals & Recession Risks11:40 - Thoughts on Silver13:50 - Equity Markets & Recession18:44 - U.S. Recession Risks21:20 - Rate Hike Lag Effects24:06 - Yield Curve Thoughts26:17 - Elections & Market Volatility29:23 - Commodities & Deflation31:12 - Q.E. & The Dollar35:06 - Gold East Vs. West?37:28 - Gold Vs. Equity Returns39:15 - Mean Reversion40:13 - M2 & Equity Prices41:46 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg,Tue, 19 Mar 2024 - 42min - 860 - Steve St. Angelo & Bob Coleman: Institutional Investors, GLD Flows, & Gold Prices, An Unusual Disconnect
Tom welcomes back Bob Coleman and Steve St. Angelo to discuss the precious metals markets. The market is undergoing a significant shift, with more sellers than buyers and dealers finding it difficult to sell at profitable prices. This has resulted in a collapse of bids and an increase in spread risk. There are also risks associated with storing metals with dealers due to counterparty risk, storage risk, and the structure programs they may be involved in.
The market has moved from retail demand to a paper market that is shorting precious metals, causing prices to rise but sentiment to remain negative. Investors are waiting for lower prices to buy again. The spike in silver prices could be due to increased inventory buying by wholesale dealers who then sell futures contracts to finance their purchases. This carry trade can become unsustainable if the price of silver rises and dealers are forced to buy back their futures contracts at a loss, potentially fueling further price increases.
High premiums in the silver market could indicate that someone is stuck on the wrong side of a trade and trying to exit, causing the futures market price to rise. The situation is not so much a physical issue as it is a paper problem, with CTAs holding large short positions in silver.
In the gold market, GLD flows and gold prices have historically moved together, but this relationship changed when interest rates started rising rapidly in mid-2022. Institutional investors have not sold much of their gold or GLD, suggesting that most of the selling is happening outside the institutional market. The strong demand for Treasuries at high-interest rates and reduced central bank gold purchases might be driving the price of gold.
There has been a shift in capital allocation from ETFs holding metals to other asset classes, particularly technology stocks. This trend poses challenges for precious metal investors but also creates opportunities for those who can identify value and navigate the current market conditions. They note that there is a risk of reaching a "max stupid point" where the market becomes overheated and unsustainable.
Market psychology appears to be shifting towards a dot-com bubble mentality, with everyone chasing after Bitcoin and other high-tech investments, making it difficult for precious metal investors to make their case. Bob also warns of the risks associated with storing metals with dealers and suggests that investors should ensure they are doing business with a reputable and sustainable company.
Gold and silver markets are heavily influenced by paper trading, hedging, financialization, and cost of production. Shifts in demand from east to west and short squeezes in the futures market can impact prices. ETFs that hold physical metals but issue new shares based on demand carry a risk of decreasing premiums to net asset value if the price of the metal falls. It is important to understand the complexities of paper trading and hedging in these markets, as well as the potential for market manipulation by authorized participants and market makers.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Physical Demand14:06 - Recent Premiums17:21 - Public Sentiment20:33 - Silver Wholesale Market23:25 - Who's on the Wrong Side?32:10 - SLV/GLD & Retail Sales36:30 - Gold Drivers & Treasuries45:10 - Asset Values ETFS & Crypto47:52 - Flows Out of ETFS53:18 - Sentiment & Solvency58:27 - Know Your Counterparty1:04:28 - SLV Borrowing Costs?1:07:45 - Current Rally Outlook1:11:20 - Bitcoin Mining Stocks1:13:27 - Treasuries & Collateral1:14:48 - Public Momentum in PMs1:18:22 - NatGas & Energy Inflation1:21:05 - Central Bank Buying1:22:34 - Financialization & ETFs1:27:00 - U.S. Debt & Treasuries1:29:40 - Silver & Flows1:31:08 - G...Fri, 15 Mar 2024 - 2h 19min - 859 - Lawrence Lepard: Setting the Scene for Infinite Q.E. – The Fed’s Next Move?
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates back to the show. Larry discuses the current inflation outlook and compares it to the 1970s, noting the current driving forces are different but "rhyme" with the past. Expectations play a significant role in inflation, with people believing prices will rise.
The International Swaps and Deals Association (ISDA) has written to the Federal Reserve Board suggesting that the market for treasuries is becoming less liquid, which could be problematic. The ISDA recommends eliminating the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), allowing banks to buy more treasuries without repercussions and potentially monetizing federal deficits. This move would increase money supply growth, currency dilution, and demand for sound money investments.
Mr. Lepard believes that the US federal budget deficit will continue to rise, with the current administration accelerating fiscal irresponsibility. He predicts that sound money assets like gold and Bitcoin will increase in value, with gold potentially reaching $3,000 per ounce by year-end. The Federal Reserve is balancing three mandates, but its emergency powers have led to increased leverage and complex trades. The federal government's debt is not sustainable, and when investors take notice, it could lead to a sharp repricing of bonds with significant consequences for the economy.
Lepard is optimistic about a return to sound money standards post-hyperinflation but sees no signs of this happening soon. He believes that gold can go as high as $10,000 per ounce and encourages investors to allocate a good portion of their assets in things the government can't print. The current market conditions provide an opportunity for investors to consider selling stocks and buying gold as protection against economic uncertainty and stock market volatility.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Inflation Outlook8:06 - Fed & Expectations10:08 - Infinite Q.E. Endgame12:02 - Crossing The Rubicon20:50 - End of the BTFP26:03 - Fed is Trapped32:30 - Bananna Republics & Cans36:47 - Currency Failure List48:30 - Market Tops & Liquidity53:49 - Hard Asset Mkt. Sizes58:08 - Commodities & Risks1:04:07 - Investor Time Horizon1:08:22 - Inflation Vs. Returns1:10:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Contrasting inflation today with that of the 1970s.
* A possible method being discussed to deploy additional stealth easing via the banking system.
* The importance of having sound money when markets are near all-time highs to mitigate risk.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepardBitcoin Speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czdPJpRa9KI
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.Wed, 13 Mar 2024 - 1h 12min - 858 - Darrell Bricker: An Empty Planet – The Shock of Global Decline
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline," discusses the global population decline and its economic implications in a recent interview. According to Bricker, fertility rates are dropping, leading to accelerated population declines since 2016-2017, even earlier than anticipated in China. This trend has significant consequences for economies that rely on people for growth and labor.
The global baby boom generation will reach retirement age by 2030, causing a rapid impact on the workforce. Countries like Japan and Italy already experience annual population declines. The UN offers three population projections: high variant (14 billion), medium variant (10.4 billion by 2100), and low variant (8.6 billion). Bricker notes that the median variant, representing the UN's projection, assumes a replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.
Environmental chemicals could impact hormonal disruption in fertility rates, but Bricker attributes the primary cause to cultural and psychological factors, such as humanity's changing perspective on creating future generations. Additionally, immigration and adapting to the birth rate of one's country of residence are common.
Declining global fertility rates and population growth present challenges for the economy, as consumerism and consumption decrease with aging populations, leading to slower economic growth. Governments face political challenges when attempting to address these issues by pushing back retirement ages. Countries like Japan, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Hungary are already grappling with significant population declines.
Bricker acknowledges that the degrowth movement sees human activity as harmful to the planet and suggests fewer people would lead to less consumption and a better environment. However, he believes they underestimate the impact of such a transition. Bricker emphasizes that declining fertility rates require adaptation and will result in a different world for future generations.
Data on declining fertility rates has become increasingly compelling, making it difficult to deny the issue. Bricker notes that this situation is unprecedented and requires careful consideration when making long-term business decisions, particularly in industries like mining and natural resources.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Population Trends3:26 - Rapid Changes5:20 - U.N. Projections7:12 - Births & Urbanization10:45 - Family Economics14:07 - Retirement Age & Labor16:02 - Offshoring Labor21:09 - China Policies22:16 - Peak Projections25:46 - The Cake is Baked27:27 - Immigration?29:26 - Environment & Hormones32:20 - Possible Solutions?34:10 - Compelling Data35:40 - Future Resource Demand39:10 - Wrap Up
Guest links:Website: https://www.ipsos.com/Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/darrellbrickerAmazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Planet-audiobook/dp/B07MGSC2X5/ref=sr_1_1?sr=8-1
Bricker is the current Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, a polling, research, marketing, and analysis company.
While Bricker was completing his B.A. studies, he began to specialize in research, polling, and analysis methods. This led to further specialization during his M.A. and Ph.D.
After completing his Ph.D. at Carleton University in 1989, Bricker was hired in the Office of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney as the Director of Public Opinion Research. After a year in the Prime Minister's Office, Bricker was hired by the Angus Reid Group,Mon, 11 Mar 2024 - 40min - 857 - Michael Pento: Understanding the Stakes as Bank Term Funding Ends
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the show.
Michael begins by focusing on the current state of the US financial system and potential risks ahead. With the bank term funding program expiring next week, there may be stress in the banking system as banks will have to repay credit received and take back their assets. Other risks include rising unemployment rates, impacting various loan markets, and indicators such as a contraction in the manufacturing sector for 16 months, an inverted yield curve, and increasing bankruptcies. Michael suggests that the economy is unhealthy and unbalanced, favoring the wealthy while harming the middle class and lower-income individuals.
Michael feels there's potential for another liquidity crisis in the US banking system. While the Fed could implement measures like another bank term funding program, it would be problematic amid high inflation, potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and a sovereign debt crisis. He argues that options for addressing a liquidity crisis are limited and any measures taken may have unintended consequences.
Mr. Pento believes we're in a bubble economy due to excessive money printing and low interest rates. Pento expects inflation to continue to rise, leading to a recession and potentially a serious bear market for stocks.
Pento discusses the relationship between gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that Wall Street and the general public have been more focused on Bitcoin due to its higher profile and influence of sponsors in financial media. He believes gold is a more reliable store of value and better hedge against inflation than Bitcoin. Michael advises investors to pay attention to economic cycles and consider active steps for protection, like diversifying into precious metals and actively managing your investments.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Fed & Liquidity Levels3:39 - Bitcoin Tangent6:14 - Fed BTFP Program End9:38 - Unemployment & Banks11:48 - Economy & Manufacturing14:58 - Debt, Defaults, & Problems19:52 - Fed Inflation & Printing25:00 - Good Intentions & Roads27:10 - Gold Positioning & Rates30:20 - Hype Train & Bitcoin/Gold32:37 - Miners Vs. Physical34:18 - Avoid Losing Money!36:39 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Bank term funding program expires shortly which may cause increased stress in the banking system as banks must repay credit and reclaim assetss.
* Potential risks to financial sector include rising unemployment rates, impact on loan markets, and multiple negative indicators.
* Limited options exist for the Fed to address a liquidity crisis, and any measures taken could have unintended consequences.
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: mpento@pentoport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.Fri, 08 Mar 2024 - 37min - 856 - Kevin Muir: The World Shifts to Gold – Challenging the Dominance of US Assets
Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show. Kevin discusses the concept of "rolling mini bubbles" in markets. These bubbles form when an asset class or theme gains popularity among hedge funds, causing price increases based on perceived momentum rather than underlying value. Muir cited Tesla and the electric vehicle (EV) market as examples, noting that while these bubbles can inflate quickly, they also deflate rapidly.
Muir suggested that certain stocks, particularly those related to EVs and artificial intelligence, are currently experiencing a bubble. He advised investors to focus on buying undervalued stocks and mentioned Japan as an area of potential value due to recent government actions benefiting the stock market. Muir also discussed the concept of reflexivity, introduced by George Soros, which suggests that investor actions can influence and be influenced by market performance, leading to more frequent and violent bubbles.
The interview touches on Canada's economy, with Muir arguing that it is not as strong as the US despite similar fiscal stimulus during COVID-19. He pointed out that America spent more overall, experienced a larger housing bubble burst in 2008 leading to deleveraging, and currently has lower consumer debt compared to Canada. These factors make Canada more sensitive to higher interest rates, which Muir predicts will negatively impact the Canadian economy.
Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact.
Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Rolling Mini Bubbles4:18 - Chip Manufacturing8:03 - Demand & Rising Price9:52 - Bubbles & Risky Trades11:12 - Japanese Value Stocks16:04 - Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus25:40 - Spending Canada Vs. U.S.30:40 - Fiscal Dominance Era38:23 - Fiscal Spending & Inflation43:52 - Wags, Inflation & Gold51:15 - Eastern Gold Holdings54:04 - The Golden Endgame58:28 - Performance of Miners1:00:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.com
Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."
Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of ...Thu, 07 Mar 2024 - 1h 01min - 855 - Larry McDonald: What is the Catalyst for Gold Miners to Finally Perform
Tom welcomes back New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert Larry McDonald.
Larry discussed the impact of political decisions on the U.S. economy and markets. He highlights the concerning trend of deficit spending relative to GDP, revealing that it cost the U.S. $834 billion to grow the GDP by $334 billion in the last quarter of 2023. He predicts a continued focus on short-term economic growth by politicians to retain power, leading to an inflationary economic environment. McDonald also discussed the potential implications for banks with commercial real estate holdings, emphasizing the need for Federal Reserve intervention as the market faces a significant downturn. He warned of a potential economic crisis if the Fed raises interest rates, putting stress on both banks and consumers.
McDonald shares his insights on an impending energy crisis around 2025-2026. He attributes this coming crisis to factors such as population growth, improved living standards in developing nations, and inadequate capital investments in energy resources. He underscores the impact of geopolitical tensions and climate change on supply chains and inflation, shaping a shift towards a multipolar world order. McDonald suggests that these changes will influence the performance of precious metals, with potential disruptions creating opportunities for investors. He also emphasizes the importance of addressing sustainability concerns, noting that progress in this area may be slower than anticipated. McDonald's forthcoming book, set to be released in March, delves deeper into these pressing issues.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Politics & Debt5:32 - Democrats & Spending10:12 - Loosening Talk & Effect15:28 - Banks & Commercial Losses19:27 - Economic Realities22:37 - Wealth Concentration27:54 - Risks - Stocks & Banking31:28 - Geopolitics & Conflicts38:10 - Precious Metals43:24 - Green Energy & Metals46:54 - Book Announcement48:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Deficit spending costs: U.S. spent $834B for $334B GDP growth in Q4 2023.
* Banks face commercial real estate crisis, may need Fed intervention.
* Predicted energy crisis 2025-2026 due to global factors and capital shortfall.
Guest Links:Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/convertbondNew Book - Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/2capfzt9
Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.
Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China's Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.
In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today's leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 - 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Society Generale.
In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.
Mon, 04 Mar 2024 - 49min - 854 - Francis Hunt: Be Heavy on Gold Now!
Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, Founder of "The Market Sniper" to the show.
Francis discusses the current market dynamics, opportunities in gold and crypto markets, and the prospect of an impending financial crisis. Hunt draws attention to the performance of Bitcoin compared to gold, declaring the former's rapid growth as compelling despite its recognized risks. In light of these observations, he encourages investors to be adaptable with their strategies, hinting at the possible advantage of divesting from Bitcoin at its peak and redirecting to gold.
Hunt prognosticates 2022 as a crucial year due to the convergence of significant events including elections, halving of Bitcoin, and fluctuations in quantitative easing and tightening. Analyzing the long-term differential between 30-year and 2-year bonds, Hunt warns of an upcoming financial meltdown due to the yield curve inversion, positioning it as an almost certain harbinger of economic turmoil. He foresees a massive sell-off fueled by potential banking crises and debt markets.
Hunt further contemplates the impact of high levels of debt on the economy, using Japan's experience as an illustrative case. He attributes the country's economic stagnation in part to its heavy debt, a situation that resulted in the yen's depreciation and, paradoxically, enhanced competitiveness of Japanese companies globally. Despite the immediate challenges, Hunt is optimistic about the performance of Japan's stock market due in part to their depreciating currency and globally competitive corporations.
Turning his scrutiny to the state of the global debt market, Hunt asserts that faith in debt has dwindled, signaling the end of the 40-year bond bull market. The reluctance of banks to accept illiquid assets as collateral indicates an even bigger issue, foreshadowing elevated interest rates and an impending crisis. As the global economy edges towards a potential debt collapse, he advocates for investing in gold as a consistently safe asset. He proposes a sequence to amplify wealth: initiate with gold, then silver, and finally miners, presenting these options as a safeguard against impending economic instability. Despite his frank appraisal of the risks inherent in the current economic climate, Hunt reiterates his support for precious metals as a viable hedge against financial turbulence.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Investing Approaches2:12 - Insider Selling4:55 - Bitcoin in Gold Ounces12:50 - Bitcoin Sentiment16:16 - Bitcoin Vs. Dollar20:45 - Volatility & Exits21:50 - Silver Outlook23:04 - Gold Vs. Dollar28:22 - 2024 Outlook & Fed32:04 - Treasury Inversion37:30 - Cause and Effect38:55 - Debt Implications50:50 - Outlook For Pensions54:50 - The Bond Market Shift58:00 - Real Bubble is Debt1:02:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Bitcoin's rapid growth compared to gold is compelling, but it comes with risks. Adaptability in investment strategies, like divesting from Bitcoin at its peak, can be advantageous.
* The convergence of events in 2022, like elections and Bitcoin halving, could trigger a financial crisis. Yield curve inversion suggests an imminent economic meltdown with potential banking crises.
* Global debt market signals the end of a 40-year bond bull market. Banks' reluctance for illiquid assets as collateral hints at rising interest rates and a looming crisis. Invest in gold for stability.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.Fri, 01 Mar 2024 - 1h 04min - 853 - London Paul: Part 2 – The Decline of US Military Power & Fissures Developing Within NATO
In the second half of this interview, London Paul dives into the recent interview with Tucker Carlson, London Paul reflects on the significance of Vladimir Putin's discussion on a range of topics. While many expected the interview to be a game changer, Paul argues that it did not provide any new information and criticizes Putin's history lesson as self-indulgent. He suggests that Carlson could have asked tougher questions. Paul believes that the interview, while it may have rattled some in the West, was not as groundbreaking as people believed. He points out that other events, such as Putin's 2018 speech on Russia's military capabilities, have had more significant implications.
Paul then discusses the lessons NATO has learned from the war in Ukraine. He argues that NATO initially underestimated Russia's military capability and has now come to realize its strength. He also dismisses the belief that Russia wants to recreate the Soviet Union and invade the Baltic republics. Paul predicts that if Ukraine loses the war, NATO will face division and its future will be in doubt. He also suggests that there will be political fallout within Ukraine and among European nations, potentially leading to the rise of populist governments and questioning the future of the European Union.
Paul explains the difference between a war and a special military operation and emphasizes that Russia is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine. He highlights the importance of avoiding a situation where Russia declares war on Ukraine to prevent further escalation and a potential global nuclear war. He acknowledges growing concerns within the US about financing the war and emphasizes the need to end the conflict due to its devastating impact on the Ukrainian people.
Lastly, Paul argues that the US has lost its military power and is facing numerous challenges and conflicts that it cannot effectively manage. Despite this, he believes that if the US faces reality and adapts, it can still be a great nation amongst equals. He encourages listeners to be informed about global events and mentions his podcast, which releases five episodes per week.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Putin Tucker Interview15:14 - NATO & Political Failure19:46 - Ukraine Post War24:20 - War Vs. S.M.O33:05 - Western Bias & Dominance37:45 - Israel & Gaza41:00 - Western Fears & Reality47:32 - Embracing Change50:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* London Paul believes that Vladimir Putin's recent interview with Tucker Carlson was not as groundbreaking as people expected, as it did not provide new or surprising information.
* Paul predicts that if Ukraine loses the war with Russia, NATO will face division and its future will be in doubt, potentially leading to the rise of populist governments and questioning the future of the European Union.
* Paul emphasizes the importance of avoiding a situation where Russia declares war on Ukraine, as it could lead to further escalation and potentially trigger a global nuclear war.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thesiriusreport
The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.
Thu, 29 Feb 2024 - 53min - 852 - London Paul: Part One – Debt Levels & Instability, The Achilles Heel of the West’s Financial System
Tom welcomes back Paul from the Sirius Report to continue discussing the geopolitical shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar world. Paul highlights the failure of the traditional unipolarity model for economic reasons, particularly since the financial crisis of 2008. The global South wants to assert its autonomy and make its own decisions, which has led to a push for de-dollarization and the development of alternative payment mechanisms. The Ukraine war and the imposition of sanctions on Russia have shown that it is possible to function outside the SWIFT system and conduct transactions in local currencies. The global South also points out that it has a real economy based on manufacturing and production, unlike the West, which is heavily dependent on financialization. The economies of the BRICS countries, in total, are now higher than the G7 economies, further highlighting the shift towards multipolarity.
In terms of resources and energy, the conflict in Ukraine highlighted their importance in the world. Russia's resilience in the face of sanctions showed the rest of the world that they could operate outside the dominant Western paradigm. Energy is the lifeblood of nations, and countries like Russia and Iran have vast resources that are essential for the world's energy needs. The global South, with its access to resources and lack of financialization, is in a better position for long-term growth compared to the debt-ridden West. Collaboration and win-win partnerships will be essential for a multipolar world to thrive.
Paul also discusses the looming commercial real estate bubble and its slow-burning effect on the economy. The pandemic has led to a decline in demand for commercial real estate, and although the too big to fail banks may not be directly affected, their investments in the shadow banking sector make them vulnerable. The regulators are starting to pay attention, but it may be too little, too late. The Western financial system faces multiple challenges, such as debt levels, deindustrialization, and the instability of the US dollar. Attempting to preserve financialization and the dollar while the real economy suffers is not a sustainable solution.
Paul highlights the interconnection between the financial system and the real economy, emphasizing the importance of resources and energy for a sustainable system. He warns against the fudging of financial and economic data, stating that printing money can have inflationary consequences and lead to the implosion of the economy, as seen in Weimar Germany. In contrast, Eastern nations like China are buying gold to preserve wealth and insulate themselves from the US dollar and US Treasuries. China, along with other Eastern countries, focuses on building a real economy and backing their currencies with tangible assets. Understanding these different approaches and perspectives is crucial in recognizing the shift towards a multipolar world.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Complexities & Geopolitics12:10 - Sanctions & Global South17:18 - BRICS & Untapped Resources26:20 - Big Banks & "Assets"35:20 - Dollar System Failing48:06 - West Vs. East Discipline57:28 - Investment in China
Talking Points From This Episode - The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is driven by the global South's push for autonomy and de-dollarization. - Energy and resources play a vital role in the shift towards multipolarity, benefiting countries with access to these assets. - The Western financial system faces challenges such as a commercial real estate bubble, debt levels, and the unstable US dollar.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.Wed, 28 Feb 2024 - 1h 03min - 851 - Kevin Wadsworth: Unleashing the Power of Precious Metals
Tom welcomes back Kevin Wadsworth of Northstarbadcharts.com discusses various aspects of investing, highlighting the importance of risk management and identification of technical indicators to potentially predict market direction. The discussion reveals that while individual stock gains can impress, assessing the percentage gain a portfolio has made is a more significant measure of success. Specific strategies like application of stop losses and position sizing within risk management protocol are also clarified as useful investment tactics.
The evaluation of gold performance as a protective hedge against negative market outcomes is explored. The usage of ratio charts to identify gold miners overperforming the ASA index is also advocated. The analysis reveals the increasing prominence of uranium, potentially signaling a shift of capital into this sector. By judging economic indicators through a technical lens, predictions can be made regarding impending market dynamics.
A probing analysis is made of Nvidia which is nearing two trillion market cap. A possible bearish rising wedge in the company's chart suggests a potential increase towards $1,300 by November with a subsequent post-election decline.
The interview concludes with a hypothesis regarding an impending market shift, identifying a yield curve inversion where the 10-year yield has a higher interest rate than the 2-year yield as a potential crisis signal. A shift in capital towards precious metals is predicted as a potential catalyst for real growth.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Bets & Risk Management6:20 - Sentiment & Gold8:43 - Gold & Mad Gainz11:45 - Thoughts on Silver15:05 - ASA Miners Vs. Gold18:46 - Finding Opportunity20:29 - Uranium Chart25:55 - Stops & Mitigating Risk27:10 - Volume Usefulness30:22 - US Treasury Charts34:44 - Big Picture Thinking41:38 - Silver Vs. Dollar42:40 - NVIDIA Mkt. Cap46:04 - 10 Year Risk Matrix53:21 - DXY Vs. Gold56:33 - Markets This Fall58:22 - FOMO & Gold Vs. Dollar1:03:48 - Evidence & Confidence1:06:39 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarChartsTwitter: https://x.com/badcharts1
Kevin Wadsworth is a seasoned chart trader with over 15 years of experience and a strong following on social media. With a background in meteorology spanning over 30 years, he has worked in various professional roles, including military and civilian weather forecasting. Currently serving as a Civil Contingency Advisor, Kevin provides advanced warning and guidance for life-threatening weather events and collaborates with emergency response teams.
His interest in the financial world was sparked by a colleague in the early 2000s, and he became particularly fascinated after the 2008 financial crash. Drawing parallels between weather forecasting and predicting market movements, Kevin emphasizes the importance of gathering evidence from various sources, much like assessing multiple weather models. His approach focuses on presenting clear, unbiased charts based on the weight of evidence, rather than personal bias.
Kevin's expertise lies in distilling complex information into actionable insights, whether it's forecasting weather patterns or market trends.Fri, 23 Feb 2024 - 1h 10min - 850 - Egon von Greyerz: Warning of Wealth Risks in a World of Financial Jenga
Tom welcomes back Egon von Greyerz, founder and managing partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland. Egon highlights concerns about the current state of the global economy. He underlined the mounting national debts and potential for war as the two primary factors adding to the world's chaos. Despite this, he stresses the importance of focusing on individual wellbeing and controlling what can be influenced personally.
Greyerz suggests investment in gold as an effective method of wealth preservation. This is because gold maintains its purchasing power over extended periods, even as fiat currencies lose value. Greyerz predicted a surge in gold interest as a safe haven amid increasing national deficits and economic instability worldwide. The attractiveness of gold is amplified by the potential impacts of overdue debts, particularly in the real estate sector.
Furthermore, Greyerz draws attention to the significant shift in the U.S. government's method of funding debt. As central banks continue to create fiat currency, many countries are offloading their U.S. treasury bonds, leaving the Federal Reserve as the main purchaser. This situation, combined with an inflationary world economy, may trigger more financial troubles. Greyerz expresses concerns that governments could potentially confiscate assets or force investment into specific securities such as U.S. treasuries. Moreover, Greyerz warns of the risks associated with investments in Bitcoin and Gold ETFs, emphasizing the need for owning physical gold stored outside the banking system for effective wealth preservation. Despite an overall gloomy prediction for the global economy, Greyerz urges investors to focus on non-monetary values such as family ties and personal relationships.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:30 - Wealth Vs. Living2:33 - Gold Fundamentals12:55 - Dollar & Debt Outlook18:17 - BRICS & Russia20:22 - C.B. Gold Buying29:42 - U.S. Gold Holdings?33:25 - Counterparties & Audits34:49 - Scarcity & Balance37:04 - Inflation & Wars39:16 - Fed & Rates44:10 - Other Assets?47:38 - Gold ETF Concerns51:08 - Concluding Thoughts53:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Why Gold reliably retains purchasing power over time, unlike fiat currencies."
* Exponential gold price rise predicted due to increasing demand, limited supply.
* Greyerz cautions the risks of potential government confiscation of assets in banks.
* He also notes that the best things in life are free and help those around you.
Guest Links:Website: https://vg.gold/Website: https://www.goldswitzerland.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Egon von Greyerz is Founder & Managing Partner of Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland
Egon began his professional life in Geneva as a banker and thereafter spent 17 years as the Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc. During that time, Dixons expanded from a small photographic retailer to a FTSE 100 company and the largest consumer electronics retailer in the UK.
During the 1990s, Egon became actively involved with financial investment activities including mergers and acquisitions and asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of Von Greyerz as an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles.
Von Greyerz is now the world’s leading company for direct investor ownership of physical gold and silver outside the banking system.Thu, 22 Feb 2024 - 54min - 849 - Doomberg: Debunking the Peak Cheap Oil Myth
Tom welcomes back once again the Head Writer from the Doomberg Chicken Coop. In this interview Doomberg breaks down many of the energy myths around supply and scarcity in an era of technological advancement.
Doomberg discusses the hotly contested concept of 'peak cheap oil,' which asserts that the global economy will soon experience a severe decline in easily affordable oil due to dwindling supplies. Given a humorous twist, Doomberg confidently counters this theory in a manner that ruffles a few feathers amongst its proponents.
Despite his animated personality, Doomberg intelligently lays out a counter-narrative to the peak oil theory, asserting that technological advancements and human adaptability would consistently flex and adapt under the strain of assumed dwindling oil reserves. This plucky chicken argues that, contrary to popular belief, if there was an imminent oil crisis, current political and economic constraints would dissipate, causing nations to rally together and adopt necessary measures to prevent disaster.
Like an experienced egg-cracker, Doomberg breaks down the processes of oil refining, expressing faith in the industry's ability to convert various hydrocarbon types into numerous usable oil products. So, even when lighter hydrocarbons are at play, Doomberg insists they can be transformed into heavier substances like jet fuel, demonstrating the industry's adaptability.
In laying out potential solutions to the imminent dread of peak oil reality, Doomberg sounds the rooster's crow, waking us to the possibilities we would explore to keep oil supply constant and prices economical. Doomberg avows that political restrictions would be shed, conventional oil reserves exploited, shale drilling technology would become widespread, and enormous natural gas reservoirs would be tapped. This talking Chicken Little goes even further to say that faced with skyrocketing oil prices, we would simply alter our engines to run on cheaper, abundant natural gas.
Doomberg does not mince words about the central importance of energy to the economy, reminding us that despite several crises since the 70s, our primary energy use continues to grow, showcasing our resilience and adaptability. Moreover, Doomberg reiterates that we are far from exhausting accessible and affordable oil— the limitations are more political and temporary than physical or absolute.
The talkative chicken does a beak drop on the shale oil industry, clarifying that while it is concentrated heavily in the US, the technology can be copied and used globally, particularly by significant players like China.
To cap it off, Doomberg reaffirms that we have plentiful oil reserves, and our innovative abilities, coupled with political compromises, would forestall any imminent oil crisis. In this engaging conversation laced with comedy and fowl-play, Doomberg manages to debunk several misconceptions about oil exhaustion and the looming energy crisis, presenting a future marked by human ingenuity and widespread energy production. Whether it's talking about oil, natural gas, or ethanol, it's clear that Doomberg is no chicken when it comes to tackling complex topics and laying out hard-boiled facts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Twilight in the Desert?9:54 - Crude Production15:42 - SPR & Inflation22:00 - Oil's Importance24:54 - Nuclear Narratives27:06 - Energy Needs & Growth28:54 - Artificial Limits?31:34 - Global Reserves33:26 - Shale & Analysts35:58 - China & Energy Tech.37:40 - Russian Resources40:07 - Iran & Politics42:28 - New World Oil44:58 - U.S. Manufacturing48:34 - Recession & Energy50:10 - SPR & Politics53:24 - Oil Price & Inflation59:43 - Ethanol & Hydrogen1:04:06 - New & Future Tech.Tue, 20 Feb 2024 - 1h 10min - 848 - Nick Giambruno: The Illusion of Ownership – Why the Money in the Bank Isn’t Yours!
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of the Contra Speculator.
In this eye-opening discussion, Nick Giambruno exposes the truth behind the banking system and challenges the common misconception that the money in your bank account belongs to you. Through a detailed analysis, he reveals the legal and financial realities that make you an unsecured creditor of the bank, rather than a rightful owner of your funds. Discover the shocking implications of this arrangement and how it places you at the mercy of the banking establishment. Brace yourself for a paradigm-shifting perspective on your hard-earned money.
Cautioning on the potential fallout of an escalating interest expense on federal debt, Giambruno expresses worries over the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes. Massive interest payments could lead to the federal government's bankruptcy. Borrowing money to service existing debt means mounting, potentially catastrophic, debt levels. He expresses skepticism over Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), viewing them as a desperate rescue attempt for the failing fiat system. In contrast, he sees Bitcoin as a formidable central bank competitor.
Discussing the geopolitical scenario, Giambruno expresses concern over the increased US expulsion from the Middle East and the likelihood of escalating conflicts. This situation, he posits, could affect oil-related equities. From his base in Argentina, he observes the anticipated presidency of Javier Milei, who may refrain from dollarization to maintain sovereignty and could transition towards a free market currency system. Nevertheless, he points out that this is a challenging transformation requiring an extensive overhaul of the existing system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Henry Ford Quote5:50 - Money Vs. Currency10:16 - Capital Controls & Collapse11:46 - The Hiking Cycle is Over15:06 - Why CBDCs Will Fail18:22 - Bitcoin & Alternatives20:32 - Silver's Future Role22:16 - Fragile Oil Markets25:50 - Conflicts & Geopolitics31:00 - Risk of False Flags31:53 - Argentina & Javier Milei35:27 - El Salvador & Bitcoin37:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Challenging the common misconception that the money in your bank account belongs to you.
* The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and potential fallout on federal debt.
* The geopolitical scenarios and concern over increased conflicts in the Middle East.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/NickGiambrunoWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Fri, 16 Feb 2024 - 38min - 847 - Sam Lawrie: Gold and the Return of the Banking Crisis
Sam Lawrie from Adams Bullion converses with your host Tom Bodrovics about the US market's response to the recent hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data. The data increased the value of the US dollar and consequently caused a significant decrease in gold and silver value. They assess the long-term implications, noting that sustained high interest rates could greatly increase the cost of the maturing US national debt. Lawrie acknowledges that initially, high-interest rates may discourage gold investments but maintains that a bullish perspective on gold is more favorable in the long term. The termination of the Bank Term Funding Program might trigger downside movements, he suggests.
Lawrie speculates that Jerome Powell's unexpected switch in stance concerning interest rates in December could be due to a possible banking sector crisis. He notes a political push for lower interest rates in countries such as Australia and argues that despite being above inflation targets, having lower rates benefits lower-income individuals, which could push the economy towards hyperinflation. The conversation covers the political use of the oil market, with Lawrie attributing the draining of the SPR last year to inflation moderation. He also highlights the current Middle-Eastern issues and the strained relations with Iran as potential triggers for oil price increase.
Lawrie predicts that inflation will intensify over time, driven by high oil prices which will increase the cost of nearly all goods. He argues that people are inclined to spend money today if they believe it will lose value tomorrow. Despite the predicted intensification of inflation, Lawrie notes that several western governments are considering ways to manage inflation. He discusses the consequences of central bank gold leasing on gold revaluation and advises people to contemplate national-level counterparty risk regarding gold ownership if a revaluation event occurs.
The conversation also covers the US stock market, with Lawrie pointing out the substantial gains from top companies like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft. He characterizes the situation as strange, likening it to a bubble where fundamentals no longer bear significance. Lawrie is also keeping a keen eye on Treasury auctions, noting that if there aren't enough buyers, the Federal Reserve might have to buy some of that debt. Lawrie concludes the conversation by noting an increased interest in precious metals from first-time buyers and an evident shift towards silver due to the gold to silver ratio, despite supply chain issues and rising freight costs.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - CPI Reports & Gold Mkt.4:05 - Fed Bank Term Funding5:17 - DXY Vs. Gold7:55 - Fed & Powell Reversal13:40 - Oil, SPR & Inflation17:00 - China Reopening19:08 - Peak Oil & Shale21:03 - Inflation Outlook & Rates29:08 - Debt & Systemic Risks33:32 - Equity Market Value36:24 - 2024 Outlook & Bonds39:13 - Gold Sales Trends42:26 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The recent CPI inflation data caused a decrease in the value of gold and silver, but a bullish perspective remains in the long term.
* Jerome Powell's switch in interest rate stance in December may indicate a possible banking sector crisis.
* Inflation is predicted to intensify over time due to high oil prices, leading to an increased interest in precious metals.
*
Guest Links:Website: https://adamsbullion.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/adamseconomicsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepubliccrusaderThu, 15 Feb 2024 - 43min
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