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Risk Parity Radio is a podcast about investing located at www.riskparityradio.com. RPR explores risk-parity style portfolios comprised of uncorrelated or negatively correlated asset classes -- stocks, selected bonds, gold, REITs and other easily accessible fund options for the DIY investor. The goal is to construct portfolios that are robust and can be drawn down on in perpetuity, and to maximize projected Safe Withdrawal Rates regardless of projected overall returns.
- 338 - Episode 336: Gold And Mental Models Of Crowds And History, The Truth About Inflation In Retirement, And More On Global Portfolios
In this episode we answer emails from Zane, Slim Jim, and Jim Kirk. We discuss recent moves in world gold markets, good and bad mental models of collective action and critical events, including Mimetic Theory and fractal sand pile models, avoiding the physical metals racket, the data and evidence showing that retirees experience inflation at a much lower rate than the CPI (and most financial planners and DIYers get this completely wrong, resulting in bad planning), and the new global portfolio analysis article at Portfolio Charts (again).
Links:
Retirement Spending Smile models: What Is The 'Retirement Spending Smile'? | Retirement Researcher
Spending Trajectories After Age 65 Research Paper and Summary: Spending Trajectories After Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth | RAND
Portfolio Charts Article Re Global Portfolios: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio ChartsThu, 25 Apr 2024 - 337 - Episode 335: Humorous Musings On 4/20, Asset Swaps In Retirement Accounts, A Global Portfolio Analysis And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 19, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Brian and Drew. We entertain ourselves on 4/20 with Anderson's "Uncle Frank" Portfolio and learn something from it, discuss asset swapping for management of retirement accounts with a hat tip to Justin (Risk Parity Chronicles), and discuss the new Global Portfolio analysis and tools from Tyler at Portfolio Charts.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Anderson's "Uncle Frank" Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
"How To Do An Asset Swap" Video From Justin: How to Do an Asset Swap (youtube.com)
New Portfolio Charts Global Portfolio Analysis And Tools: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna CenterSun, 21 Apr 2024 - 336 - Episode 334: Comparative Analyses At PV, Comparative Safe Withdrawal Rates, Foolish Consistencies, And Fee Spats In ETF World
In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Andrew, Sameer and James. We discuss some portfolio comparisons of levered 60/40 portfolios, interpreting and comparing safe withdrawal rates from various calculators and their practical application in consideration of variable expenses and needs (our 3-1-1 flexible withdrawal plan), the foolish consistencies of DIYer and financial planners who seem to enjoy discouraging retirement spending, and recent articles about Fidelity's spat with some ETF providers.
Links:
Kyle's Portfolio #1: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's Portfolios #1 and #2: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's Portfolios #1, #2 and #3: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Golden Butterfly Portfolio -- SWR And Other Characteristics: Golden Butterfly Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Larry Swedroe Interview About New Book and Factor Investing: ‘Buffett really was not a great stock picker’: Financial researcher Larry Swedroe on how investors can emulate the billionaire investor – NBC Connecticut
Article #1 re Fidelity and Fees: Fidelity Puts Nine ETF Firms on Notice That New Fees Are Looming - Bloomberg (archive.fo)
Article #2 re Fidelity and Fees: Fidelity Adds Surcharge to ETF Platform | etf.comThu, 18 Apr 2024 - 335 - Episode 333: Putting The Hammer Down With A Rant On Target Date Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 12, 2024
In this episode we answer an email from Ingrid. We discuss target date funds in depth and why they are not good choices for investors. We review their history and recent academic research that reveals the truth. You may not like it, but we hope you can handle it.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Referenced Academic Paper Revealing The Awful Truth About Target Date Funds: The Unintended Consequences of Investing for the Long Run: Evidence from Target Date Funds by Massimo Massa, Rabih Moussawi, Andrei Simonov :: SSRNSun, 14 Apr 2024 - 334 - Episode 332: Assisting Elderly Parents, A Levered Accumulation Portfolio, And The "You-Know-You-Won" G Fund
In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Anderson and Joe. We discuss assisting aging parents running out of money, Anderson's levered accumulation portfolio and locating the assets, and using the G Fund in a TSP as a short-term bond fund.
Links:
Portfolio Matrix Used to Analyze Anderson's Portfolio (insert allocations per podcast): Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Morningstar Article re G Fund: How Good Is the Federal Government’s G Fund? | MorningstarWed, 10 Apr 2024 - 333 - Episode 331: Dollar Stories, The Rule Of 55, The Nicest Guy of FI, Basic Portfolio Construction Principles, And Reviews As Of April 5, 2024
In this episode we answer questions from Dale, Brad and Corey. We discuss a new paper about US dollar dominance and the common narrative fallacies associated with that issue, using the Rule of 55 for 401(k) withdrawals, the Nicest Guy of FI, and the basics of constructing portfolios with high historical safe withdrawal rates.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Marketwatch Article: Dethrone the dollar? 5 charts show how U.S. currency still rules world economy. - MarketWatch
Paper re Status of US Dollar: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Schwab Article re The Rule of 55: Retiring Early? 5 Key Points about the Rule of 55 | Charles Schwab
DBMF Quarterly Review: iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | April 2024 (youtube.com)
Andrew Beer Interview On The Development And Use Of Managed Futures In Diversified Portfolios: SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following ft. Andrew Beer | Top Traders Unplugged
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio ChartsSun, 07 Apr 2024 - 332 - Episode 330: Charitable Donation Methods, Speculating On Inflation And Applying Shannon's Demon To Prioritize Our Investing Principles
In this episode we answer emails from Jon, Eli, and George. We discuss using the tools at Portfolio Charts, methods of charitable giving to our favorite charity, extreme podcast listening, what to invest in if you are speculating on inflation next year and other gambling problems, and applying the math of Shannon's Demon to show us why we should not let the Simplicity Principle tail wag the Holy Grail principle diversification dog when constructing diversified portfolios.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
New Portfolio Charts Article re Gold and Global Safe Withdrawal Rates: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Shannon's Demon Article from Market Sentiment: Shannon's Demon - Market Sentiment
Shannon's Demon Article from Portfolio Charts: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Shannon's Demon Article from World Scientific: SWITCHING BETWEEN TWO LOSING STOCKS MAY ENABLE PARADOXICAL WIN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (worldscientific.com)
Shannon's Demon Article from Breaking The Market: The Great Age of Rebalancing Begins - (breakingthemarket.com)Thu, 04 Apr 2024 - 331 - Episode 329: Fun With Transitions, The Portfolio Charts Tools, And GOOOOLD, Along With Portfolio Reviews As Of March 29, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Jetson and Jon (x2). We discuss good times to trade, transitioning to a risk parity style portfolio with sub-optimal components and related considerations, experimenting with and learnings from the tools at Portfolio Charts, including the Portfolio Matrix and Drawdown Analyzer, and Gooooold!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Matrix Calculator: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Drawdowns Calculator: Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts "Ingredients" Article: Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Safe Withdrawal Rate Series Article about Gold: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk - SWR Series Part 34 - Early Retirement NowSun, 31 Mar 2024 - 330 - Episode 328: Rebalancing Leveraged Portfolios, Asset Location Considerations, And All Hail BLAZING SADDLES!
In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Justin, and Cy, and also update our answer to last episode's email from Sean. We talk about a different approach to Sean's situation, Mark's experiments with leveraged funds, rebalancing and assorted gambling problems, reporting on the sample portfolios at the website, the difficulties of trying to plan "how much" goes in retirement, Roth and ordinary accounts, and a full-on nostalgic Blazing Saddles experience.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Mark's Experimental Portfolio Backtest: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3rBetjbWFjRbRZSN6uMuIa
Shannon's Demon Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Recent Interview of Value Stock Geek: Inside the Mind of a Value Investor w/ Value Stock Geek (theinvestorspodcast.com)
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio ChartsThu, 28 Mar 2024 - 329 - Episode 327: Quick-Time Harch, AQR Funds, Bond Ladders, Global Population And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 22, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Andrew, Sean, and MyContactInfo. We discuss QDSIX and other AQR funds and their approaches, good and bad uses of bond ladders, and macro-issues pertaining to projected global population declines in the future.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
QDSIX fact page: AQR Diversifying Strategies Fund - QDSIX
Ben Carlson Article on Bond Funds vs. Bond Ladders: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense
Niall Ferguson Article: Global Population Collapse Isn't Sci-Fi Anymore: Niall Ferguson - Bloomberg
Shock of Gray Book: Shock of Gray: The Aging of the World's Population and How it Pits Young Against Old, Child Against Parent, Worker Against Boss, Company Against Rival, and Nation Against Nation by Ted C. Fishman | Goodreads
Hans Rosling's Factfulness: Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling | Goodreads
Hans Rosling Video on Population: Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG (youtube.com)
Hans Rosling Factfulness Video: The mindset of factfulness | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG (youtube.com)
Happy Pod: BBC World Service - Global News Podcast, The Happy Pod: The gift of sight
Portfolio Charts Withdrawal Rates Article: How to Harness the Flowing Nature of Withdrawal Rate Math – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Comparison Tool: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Risk-Return Comparison Tool: Risk And Return – Portfolio ChartsSun, 24 Mar 2024 - 328 - Episode 326: A Review of Why We Are Here, Golden Portfolios, The Non-Spenders' Plague, Revisiting Shannon's Demon, Oversimplification Is NOT The Real Goal, And Emerging Market Musings
In this episode we review why we are here and then answer emails from Paulo, Paul G, and Carlos. We discuss our recent trip to the EconoMe Conference, Paulo's portfolio ideas, the plague of being unable to spend money that afflicts most popular personal finance personalities, Mark's Money Mind (a new podcast), why the Simplicity Principle should not override the Holy Grail and other investing principles, and investing from emerging market countries.
Links:
Mark's Money Mind podcast (YouTube version): The Financial Speedometer: Tracking Your Income & Expenses | Episode 004 (youtube.com)
Paul G's Golden Butterfly analyses: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=2lyVPkZFRfTEgVF8cZIAe5
Shannon's Demon and Rebalancing Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Carlos' Article re Emerging Markets: Safe withdrawal rates from retirement savings for residents of emerging market countries (repec.org)Thu, 21 Mar 2024 - 327 - Episode 325: Talking Horses, Ray Dalio, Peruvian Guinea Pigs And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 8, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Jesse and Kyle. We discuss TMF and leverage in bond funds (and gambling problems), my recent ranting in Episode 321 and Ray Dalio's limitations and foibles, and my musings on guinea pigs and our recent trip to Peru. It's action packed!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
And add a note about the upcoming EconoMe Conference.
Additional links:
TMF web-page with holdings: 20+ Year Treasury Bull and Bear 3X ETFs | TMF TMV | Direxion
Portfolio Visualizer TMF vs. TLT vs. ZROZ Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7aqdp6fzBF4NWiP8rUdH9m
Claude Shannon's Demon Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
EconoMe Conference Speakers: Our Speakers - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Sun, 10 Mar 2024 - 326 - Episode 324: Here's Johnny With A Withdrawal Plan, What To Do When You Have Not Saved Enough And A Little RSBT
In this episode we answer questions from Mark, Broken Jack and Gus. We discuss a specific withdrawal plan and why it does not need to be too complicate, the considerations and differences between complicated or risk-based problems and complex or uncertainty-based problems, ideas for people who have not saved enough by the time they get to their sixties and why to avoid "magic button" investment strategies like buy-write funds and deal with a correction about the ETF RSBT.
Links:
Immediate Annuities Website for Pricing Simple Annuities: Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com
The Misbehavior of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot: The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence: Mandelbrot, Benoit, Hudson, Richard L.: 9780465043576: Amazon.com: Books
Catching Up To FI for Late Starters: Financial Independence - Catching up to FI
RSBT Website and Information: Bonds Managed Futures - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna CenterWed, 06 Mar 2024 - 325 - Episode 323: Flogging A Dead Horse, Jerry Parker And TFPN, Portfolio Shifts, And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 1, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Richard, Andrew and Drew. We discuss the now much-maligned Cederburg paper (again) and listen to Cliff Asness flog it, Jerry Parker's new managed futures ETF, TFPN and guidelines for making portfolio shifts.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
And add a note about the upcoming EconoMe Conference.
Additional links:
Cliff Asness Commentary About the Cederburg Paper: Why Not 100% Equities (aqr.com)
BankerOnWheels Article About the Cederburg Paper: Should You Invest 100% In Equities? (bankeronwheels.com)
Tommy Boy Clip: Tommy Boy (8/10) Movie CLIP - Housekeeping (1995) HD (youtube.com)
Jerry Parker on podcast about TFPN: TTU145: Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital (toptradersunplugged.com)
TFPN Webpage: Trend Following ETF | Blueprint Fund Management (tfpnetf.com)
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024Sun, 03 Mar 2024 - 324 - Episode 322: Aggregating Portfolios, Leverage, Festivus, Leeroy Jenkins And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 23, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Damon, Pete and Jeff. We discuss the benefits of aggregating assets and portfolios as a couple, basic tax location ideas, children with gambling problems and fun games to play with them, and resources for researching leveraged, diversified portfolios (e.g., "Return Stacking").
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Leveraged ETFs Article: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Return Stacked Article: Capital Market Assumptions when Return Stacking - Return Stacked® Portfolio Solutions
Return Stacked ETFs: Home - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Ray Dalio Video on Holy Grail Principle: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" (youtube.com)
Optimized Portfolio Website: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
Portfolio Visualizer Backtester: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ReSolve Riffs Podcast: ReSolve Riffs Investment Podcast - ReSolve Asset Management (investresolve.com)
Simplify Assets Podcast: Keeping it Simple Series with Mike Green & Harley Bassman | Simplify
Flirting With Models Podcast (Corey Hoffstein): Flirting with Models – The podcast all about quantitative investingSun, 25 Feb 2024 - 323 - Episode 321: A Small Rant About Newman Selling Annuities At Local Steakhouses
In this episode, we reflect on a recent podcast from the Value Stock Geek and embark on a nice little rant about recent mailings I have received from the financial services industry.
Link:
Security Analysis Podcast from the Value Stock Geek: The Security Analysis Podcast | Value Stock Geek | SubstackThu, 22 Feb 2024 - 322 - Episode 320: Golden Intermediate Accumulations, Long Dollar Funds, Temporary US Residency And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 16, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Lee, Phil and Carl. We discuss using Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio portfolios for intermediate accumulations, the Cederburg Pickelhaube Portfolio (again), funds UUP and EUO as diversifiers, our open source business model and tax issues for US temporary residents.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Visualizer Backtester: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Risk/Return Comparison Tool: Risk And Return – Portfolio Charts
Nomad Capitalist site: Nomad Capitalist | Offshore Tax and Lifestyle Strategies for EntrepreneursSun, 18 Feb 2024 - 321 - Episode 319: Transitioning A Simple FIRE Portfolio, The Pickelhaube Portfolio And More Fun With Leverage
In this episode we answer emails from Robert, MyContactInfo, and Stuart. We discuss growing and transitioning a FIRE portfolio, the drawbacks of too much cash, the Cederburg paper (again) and his Pickelhaube Portfolio, and more fun with leveraged ETFs.
Links:
Sean Mullaney Podcast re 72(t): How to Access Your Retirement Accounts Before 59.5 | Sean Mullaney | Ep 475 | ChooseFI
Ben Felix Article re the Cederburg paper: Understanding the role of bonds in retirement portfolios | Advisor.ca
Early Retirement Now Critique of the Cederburg Paper: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? - Early Retirement Now
Paper on Optimal Leverage: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)Thu, 15 Feb 2024 - 320 - Episode 318: Leverage, Revealed Preferences In Portfolio Construction, Andean Flutes And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 9, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Dennis and Brian. We discuss a proposed levered portfolio and leverage in general, revealed preferences applied to portfolio construction and matching construction to actual or stated goals and staying alive with Andean flute playing.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Optimized Portfolios: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
Warren Buffett's Alpha Article: Full article: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)
Excess Returns -- Show Us Your Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein (youtube.com)
Rational Reminder Podcast -- Best Practices In Family Wealth Management: Episode 282: Dr. Jim Grubman: The Psychology of Wealth — Rational ReminderSun, 11 Feb 2024 - 319 - Episode 317: Motorin' With Leveraged Fund Analyses And Tax Reporting Of Gold ETFs
In this episode we answer emails from Blake, Brown and Christian. We discuss new research into the long-term performance of leveraged funds, other gambling problems and the tax reporting of gold ETFs.
Links:
Blake's Backtest: Unleveraged TQQQ (portfoliotree.com)
Blake's Article: ⚠️ Leveraged ETFs ⚠️. Why They Sell Themselves Short | by ETF_Guy | Jan, 2024 | Medium
Corey Hoffstein's Return Stacked ETFs: Home - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Ben Felix Video on Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Christian's Link re GLDM Tax Data: World-Gold-MiniShares-Tax-Data-12-31-22-Final.pdf (spdrgoldshares.com)
GLDM Prospectus: doc-viewer (ssga.com)Thu, 08 Feb 2024 - 318 - Episode 316: Musings On Inflation, Gambling Problems And Private Real Estate Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 2, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Matthew, Matthew and Matthew. Our development has apparently been arrested. We discuss basic principles and economic history pertaining to inflation, a levered accumulation portfolio and why private real estate platforms are largely just a "meh" kind of investment.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
When Money Dies: When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Hyper-inflation by Adam Fergusson | Goodreads
Lords of Finance: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed | Goodreads
Fifty Years In Wall Street: Fifty Years in Wall Street | Wiley
Price of Time: The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor | Goodreads
This Time is Different: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart | Goodreads
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Matthew's Proposed Levered Portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=16aW147QWi5jCXws2tqXpg
EconoMe Conference (discount code "riskparityradio"): EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024
White Coat Investor Private Real Estate Affiliate Links: Real Estate Investing Company Partners | White Coat InvestorSun, 04 Feb 2024 - 317 - Episode 315: Cognitive Biases Surrounding Long-Term Care And Rational Approaches, Assorted Portfolio Alternatives and GOOOLD!
In this episode we answer emails from Paulo, Phil, and Visitor 5858. We discuss cognitive biases in the context of long-term care and unexpected medical expenses, follow ups on Episodes 307 and 308, David Stein's "garden approach" to investing, and what the purpose of gold is in a diversified portfolio.
And talk about our recent vacation in Peru.
Links:
Peter Attia's "Outlive" book: Outlive: The Science & Art of Longevity - New Book by Peter Attia (peterattiamd.com)
"Happy Body" book: The Happy Body Book Home - The Happy BodyThu, 01 Feb 2024 - 316 - Episode 314: Various Forays In Portfolio Visualizer, Rebalancing Timing Issues And The Holiday Road
In this episode we answer emails from Paul, Greg and Stuart. We discuss various portfolio visualizer analyses, correlations, Sharpe and Sortino ratios and issues pertaining to rebalancing.
Links;
Paul's Truncated Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=3fTid2mNzw2PPRhYmjAGGz
Longer Analysis with More Data: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=2PBlJj89KNGhCiNBkCDMaV
Larry Swedroe's Portfolio: Show Us of Your Portfolio II: Larry Swedroe on Alternatives and Interval Funds (youtube.com)
VISVX (VSIAX) vs. VBR Comparison: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2bfrlatwi8J4WhwvLR8dIo
Corey Hoffstein on Rebalancing Timing #1: Corey Hoffstein - Rebalance Timing Luck (S2E11) (youtube.com)
Corey Hoffstein on Rebalancing Timing #2: 10 Reducing 'Timing Luck' and Liquidity Cascades - Corey Hoffstein, Newfound Research (youtube.com)
Optimal Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Smart Portfolios Book: Smart Portfolios: A practical guide to building and maintaining intelligent investment portfolios: Carver, Robert: 9780857195319: Amazon.com: BooksWed, 17 Jan 2024 - 315 - Episode 313: Montecarlo Simulations, Accumulation Portfolios, Dr. Who, And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 12, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Mr. Klingon, Bob, MyContactInfo, and Ralph. We discuss the Macro-Allocation Principle and Accumulation Portfolios, using a value-tilt for decumulation, the ins and outs of Monte Carlo simulations, Dr. Who and using gold in an accumulation portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Monte Carlo Analysis of 80/20 Portfolio on Portfolio Visualizer: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Monte Carlo Analysis of Diversified Retirement Portfolio: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
EconoMe Conference (code "riskparityradio" to save 10%): EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024Sun, 14 Jan 2024 - 314 - Episode 312: Financial "Experts", US Dollar And Debt And Correlations (Oh My!), Portfolio Income And Total Returns, And Managed Futures In A Golden Ratio Portfolio
In this episode we answer emails from Allison, Kenny and Steve. We discuss the methods and madnesses of financial media and the industry, modeling financial "experts" as hedgehogs and foxes, US dollars and debt, and correlations between treasury bonds and stocks, why portfolio income is just part of total returns and is not special, and incorporating managed futures into a Golden Ratio-style portfolios.
Links:
Duke Paper on Treasury/Stock Market Correlations: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Picture Perfect Portfolios Comparison of Managed Futures ETFs: What's The Best Managed Futures ETF? DBMF vs KMLM vs CTA (pictureperfectportfolios.com)Thu, 11 Jan 2024 - 313 - Episode 311: Portfolio Visualizer Data, Switching Allocations, Managed Futures ETFs, Bluto, EconoMe And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 5, 2024
In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Andy, Eric and Bluto. We discuss datasets at Portfolio Visualizer, guidelines for making allocation changes in a portfolio generallly and with managed futures, managed futures funds DBMF, KMLM and CTA and distribution issues, and EconoMe Conference 2024.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Kyle's First Portfolio Visualizer Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's Second Portfolio Visualizer Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's CASHX PV Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ETF Database -- Managed Futures Funds: Managed Futures ETF List (etfdb.com)
Simplify ETFs Distribution List (CTA and others): Simplify Provides Estimated Capital Gain Distribution Information for 2023 | Simplify
EconoMe Conference -- Use Code "riskparityradio" for 10% discount: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024Sun, 07 Jan 2024 - 312 - Episode 310: Annual Portfolio Reviews And Bonus Nonsensical Ravings
In this episode we do our annual portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio and compare them with various commercial reference portfolios.
And entertain a four-year old child and our adult offspring.Thu, 04 Jan 2024 - 311 - Episode 309: Shifting Allocation Strategies, Preferred Shares, Correlation Issues And Principles -- And High Jinks!
In this episode we answer emails from Slippery Steve, Keith, Brian, and Kyle. We discuss a momentum allocation strategy called "the 12% Solution" and complex allocation strategies in general, preferred shares and preferred shares funds, notions about correlations from Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation book (pub. 2005 and 2010), putting the Simplicity Principle in it's proper context (not the first priority), and a fun listener-provided sound clip.
Link:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Duke Research Paper re Stock Market and Treasury Bond Correlations: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Morningstar Analysis of PFFD: PFFD – Portfolio – Global X US Preferred ETF | Morningstar
Morningstar Analysis of JNK: JNK – Portfolio – SPDR® Blmbg High Yield Bd ETF | Morningstar
All About Asset Allocation (2010): All About Asset Allocation, Second Edition: Ferri, Richard A. A.: 9780071700788: Amazon.com: Books
Kyle's Rodney Dangerfield Clip: Then, Sell Sell Sell - Caddyshack (youtube.com)Sun, 31 Dec 2023 - 310 - Episode 308: Annual Reflections And Thanks, Safe Withdrawal Rates, And Coming Attractions
In this rather short episode we answer emails from Ralph, Scott, Eric, the Mysterious Visitor 9575, and Steven. We discuss my recent absence and predilections for silliness, a recent podcast from the Inflation Guy about safe withdrawal rates and coming updates to the website.
Links:
Inflation Guy Podcast Episode: Ep. 92: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Accounting for Inflation | Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast (podbean.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna CenterThu, 28 Dec 2023 - 309 - Episode 307: A Panoply Of Holiday Topics, The Reinfather And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 22, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Pete and Tim. We discuss developments in factor-based investing, portfolio transitions, RMDs, the recent Cederburg paper (again) and what goes on Down Under. And another visit from Lee-roy Jenkins.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Charity Navigator Score For the Father McKenna Center: Charity Navigator - Rating for Father McKenna Center Inc.
Alpha Architect Article On The Value Factor: AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf (alphaarchitect.com)
Cederburg Paper (Again): delivery.php (ssrn.com)
New Rational Reminder Podcast with Scott Cederburg: Professor Scott Cederburg: Challenging the Status Quo on Lifecycle Asset Allocation | RR 284 (youtube.com)
Canstar Site with Aussie ETF Options: Compare Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) | CanstarSun, 24 Dec 2023 - 308 - Episode 306: Bootstrapping and EconoMe and Mini-ranting, Oh My!
In this episode we answer emails from Jenzo, Priah and Matt. We discuss a levered portfolio and tracking errors, the limitation of Scott Cederburg's latest academic paper, bootstrapping -- what it is and how it works --, what "blend" means in factor-speak, and some pitfalls with Portfolio Visualizer's datasets,
And also the upcoming EconoMe Conference in March 2024 with a discount code for our listeners, "riskparityradio":
Links:
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024
Academic Paper Critical of Lifecycle Investment Advice: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Rational Reminder Podcast re same paper: Lifecycle Asset Allocation, and Retiring Successfully with Justin King | Rational Reminder 281 - YouTube
Portfolio Visualizer Documentation: Portfolio Visualizer Documentation
Matt's First Montecarlo Analysis: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Matt's Second Montecarlo Analysis: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Modifying Matt's Analysis to Account for Earlier Data: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Father McKenna Center Charity Navigator Rating: Charity Navigator - Rating for Father McKenna Center Inc.Thu, 21 Dec 2023 - 307 - Episode 305: The Mac Daddy's Back With Portfolio Analysis, More Cowbell, And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 15, 2023
In this episode we return from hiatus to answer emails from Popeye, Clint and Mr. Klingon. We discuss a JP Morgan report, giving to the Father McKenna Center, adventures with a bad planner-provided portfolio and how to fix it, and that cowbell known as small cap value.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
JP Morgan Reports: Guide to the Markets | J.P. Morgan Asset Management (jpmorgan.com)
Father McKenna Center Donate Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Merriman Best In Class Fund Recommendations: Best ETF Recommendations | Merriman Foundation (paulmerriman.com)
Small Cap Growth v. Small Cap Value Since 1972: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Mon, 18 Dec 2023 - 306 - Episode 304: Catching Up To Pinwheels, The F Fund And Wealthfront And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 17, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Visitor 5970, Frank, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Paul. We discuss the bond funds in the TSP, the Catching Up To FI podcast, Wealthfront's atrocious attempt at a risk parity fund and the Pinwheel Portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
TSP F Fund: F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
Catching Up To FI podcast on YouTube: Catching up to FI - YouTube
Wealthfront's Troubled Risk Parity Fund: WFRPX – Wealthfront Risk Parity W Fund Stock Price | Morningstar
The Pinwheel Portfolio: Pinwheel Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Risk-Return Portfolio Comparisons: Risk And Return – Portfolio Charts
Value Stock Geek Interview of Yours Truly: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor (securityanalysis.org)Sun, 19 Nov 2023 - 305 - Episode 303: Personal Capital/Empower Extraction, Gold & Silver ETFs, Killing Kenny And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 10, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Steve, Jeff and Kenny. We discuss the complex foibles of Empower/Personal Capital portfolios and transitioning them. investing in gold and silver and tax treatments, and using the Vanguard Wellesley Fund as a model for very conservative investors.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Rob Berger Video about Investing In Gold: How to Buy Gold (Without Getting Ripped Off) - YouTube
Taxation of Gold ETFs Article: How Taxes Work For A Gold ETF Or ETP Investment (etftrends.com)
Taxation of PHYS Fund: Tax Information - Physical Gold Trust (sprott.com)
Yahoo version of Article re taxation of gold ETFs: How Taxes Work For Gold ETF & ETP Investments (yahoo.com)
Taxation of Section 1256 Contracts: Section 1256 Contract: Definition and Tax Rules (investopedia.com)
Vanguard Wellesley Portfolio: VWIAX – Portfolio – Vanguard Wellesley® Income Admiral™ | Morningstar
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity ChroniclesSun, 12 Nov 2023 - 304 - Episode 302: Bond Speculations, Golden Ratios, Fighting For Iowa Farmland And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 3, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from William, Tyler and Builderman. We discuss making changes in treasury bond fund allocations and the foibles of interest rate crystal balls, using the Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo simulator to model Golden Ratio style portfolios and musings about Iowa farmland and other family dynasty-type investments. And we Fight, Fight, Fight for Iowa. Errata: I said "Large Cap Value" in the answer to Tyler's question when I meant "Large Cap Growth." Doh!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Tyler's Golden Ratio Portfolio Analysis (Tickers): Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Tyler's Golden Ratio Portfolio Analysis (Asset Classes): Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Golden Ratio Portfolio Analysis (Longer-Term Asset Classes): Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Interview with Anthony Deden: Modern-Day Asset Management Business w/ Anthony Deden - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity ChroniclesSat, 04 Nov 2023 - 303 - Episode 301: CAOS and Calculators and Bonds, Oh My! And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 27, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and James. We discuss a couple new ETFs, CAOS and AHLT, follow up on earlier discussions about retirement calculators and investing in long term treasury bonds (VGLT and EDV).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
CAOS on Morningstar: CAOS – Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
Khan Academy link -- Geometric Sums: Finite geometric series word problem: mortgage (video) | Khan Academy
Risk Parity Chronicles Article on Long Treasuries: The Long Bond Apocalypse (riskparitychronicles.com)
Yours Truly on "Catching Up to FI": 044 | Sponge Bob and Drawdown Strategies | Frank Vasquez - YouTubeSun, 29 Oct 2023 - 302 - Episode 300: Where Its At With The Infernal JEPI And Musings About Gold And Portfolio Visualizer
In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Mark and Cody. We discuss what first Mark learned by investigating JEPI, the history of investing in gold over the past 100 years and how that may affect the data, and potential data limitations in Portfolio Visualizer on very long Monte Carlo simulations.
Bonus Links:
The Mysterious London Gold Pool: London Gold Pool - Wikipedia
Gold Mining Shares In the Great Depression: Gold Stocks Were Financial Saviors During The 1930s | Gold Eagle (gold-eagle.com)Thu, 26 Oct 2023 - 301 - Episode 299: Modeling Iowa Farmland, Cash Is No Longer Trash (Apparently), And Venture Capital Foibles
In this episode we answer questions from BuilderMan, Drew and MyContactInfo. We discuss how to incorporate farmland and other illiquid, income-producing assets in retirement expense planning, the perilous process of trying to manage a portfolio based on expert picks -- here, Ray Dalio -- and why venture capital may not be so smart.
And then we discuss the new Risk Parity Chronicles Monthly Roundup and a rebalancing of the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio sample portfolio.
And we sing the Iowa Corn Song!
Links:
Gladstone LAND ETF: LAND - Gladstone Land Corp Chart - NASDAQ | Morningstar
Ray Dalio Article About Cash: (24) The Thinking Behind Why Cash Is Now Good (and not Trash) | LinkedIn
Aswath Damodaran Blog Article on Venture Capital: Musings on Markets: Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles Risk Parity Roundup: Risk Parity Roundup: October 2023 (riskparitychronicles.com)Thu, 19 Oct 2023 - 300 - Episode 298: Coffee Is For Closers, Musings About Golden Ratio Portfolios And Buy-Write Funds, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 13, 2023
In this episode we answer questions from Jeff, Geordi and Eames. We discuss wrangling with a Fidelity advisors and assorted salespeople, the difference between naïve or static portfolio construction versus using crystal balls for that purpose, a modified Golden Ratio-style portfolio, the pitfalls of buy-write funds like JEPI and BALI and a small issue with the website.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Sun, 15 Oct 2023 - 299 - Episode 297: Common Foibles Of Retirement Calculators, Contribution Considerations And Our Favorite Whipping Boy
In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Kyle and Eric. We discuss the pitfalls of retirement tools with help from Newman, Bob Ross and a contribution question and our old semi-nemesis, TIPS.
Link:
Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesWed, 11 Oct 2023 - 298 - Episode 296: Thinking About Data Sets and Portfolio Selection, Donor Advised Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 6, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Dave and Kanembou (from Chad). We discuss the ins and outs of various data sets (as opposed to crystal balls), choosing a portfolio based on aggressiveness or conservativeness, related safe withdrawal rate issues and Donor Advised Funds.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: PORTFOLIO MATRIX – Portfolio Charts
Early Retirement Now Toolbox: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement NowSun, 08 Oct 2023 - 297 - Episode 295: Meta-Ideas About Portfolios, Withdrawal Strategies, Worthy Stuff To Do, And International Taxation And Fad ETFs
In this jam-packed episode we answer questions from Luke, Ethan, and Garry. We discuss a modified Golden Butterfly portfolio, some meta-withdrawal strategy ideas and concepts, a process for deciding what to do with oneself, small-cap vs. small-cap value investments, some esoteric international tax issues and the new QQQY gambling problem fund. And throw in some Tom Waits to boot.
Links:
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: PORTFOLIO MATRIX – Portfolio Charts
Five Regrets of the Dying: The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - Wikipedia
Stephen Kotler "Flow" Video -- Short Version: How to enter ‘flow state’ on command | Steven Kotler for Big Think - YouTube
Ethan's International Tax Article: Nonresident alien investors and Ireland domiciled ETFs - Bogleheads
QQQY Summary Prospectus: Microsoft Word - qqqy_497k-091523.docx (defianceetfs.com)Thu, 05 Oct 2023 - 296 - Episode 294: An Exquisite Dissection Of The "Four Percent Rule" And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 29, 2023
In this episode we answer an email from Jeffrey about the "4% Rule". We discuss its origins, its three parameters (portfolio construction, time frame, and withdrawal mechanism), how it works, what it means and doesn't mean, its uses and misuses and how to make adjustments to improve your own outcomes.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.
Additional links:
Bill Bengen's Original 1994 Safe Withdrawal Rate Paper: FPA Journal - The Best of 25 Years: Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data (financialplanningassociation.org)
2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies: Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar
Risk Savvy Video Lecture: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions - YouTube
Bias-Variance Dilemma Dartboard Explanation (also listen to Episode 49 of this podcast): WTF is the Bias-Variance Tradeoff? (Infographic) (elitedatascience.com)Sun, 01 Oct 2023 - 295 - Episode 293: Property & Casualty Investing, RPC, Brokerage Thoughts and Assorted Advanced Portfolio Constructions
In this episode we answer emails from Brown, Justin, MyContactInfo and an Anonymous Trending Value Investor. We discuss investing in baskets of property & casualty insurance companies for effective diversification, what's happening at Risk Parity Chronicles, general thoughts about brokerages for DIY investors and an assortment of leveraged momentum-based strategies.
Links:
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
KBWP Portfolio: KBWP – Portfolio – Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Ins ETF | Morningstar
Portfolio Visualizer of KBWP vs. Direct Indexes: https://tinyurl.com/4sfh3s49
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles
AVGV Article: AVGV ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)
Swedroe Article on Diversification: How to think differently about diversification | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)
Anonymous Factor Regression Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/2vymptuz
Anonymous Portfolio Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/yzcwazdy
Trending Value Blog Post: 100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)Thu, 28 Sep 2023 - 294 - Episode 292: TIPS, Dogs And Data, And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 22, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Owen, Jeff and Will. We discuss the commonly believed misinformation about TIPS, the ins and outs of quality dogs and investing principles, and talk about backtesting data and how it is used and misused.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.
Additional links:
Bloomberg Presentation on How Various Assets Perform in Inflationary Environments: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
Market Huddle Video discussing Bloomberg Presentation: To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles series on TIPS: Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com)
Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSun, 24 Sep 2023 - 293 - Episode 291: A Simple Portfolio, A Really Complicated Portfolio And House Hacking Went To Bar
In this episode we answer emails from Graham, Hydromod and Katie. We discuss a couple new funds from Avantis, AVGE and AVGV, and creating a portfolio with those and RSBT, Hydromod's Okay Adventure portfolio management techniques with a levered risk parity style portfolio, and Katie's questions about buying a house with her partner. And we make fun of our children, Squidward and Patrick.
Links:
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
AVGE Fund Review: AVGE ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)
ADGV Fund Review: AVGV ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)
Hydromod Link #1: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs] - Bogleheads.org
Hydromod Link #2: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach - Bogleheads.org
Hydromod LInk #3: Hydromod's Okay Adventure: Leverage, Momentum, and Risk Management - Bogleheads.org
Hydromod Portfolio Visualizer Link: Test Tactical Allocation Models (portfoliovisualizer.com)Wed, 20 Sep 2023 - 292 - Episode 290: Getting Saucy With Justin Of Risk Parity Chronicles, Modern Portfolio Theory And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 15, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Justin of Risk Parity Chronicles and Chris. We discuss Justin's new blogpost and a new fund that mixes stocks and managed futures, RSST, and follow up on Episode 288 with some useful references from Chris.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.
Additional links:
Justin's Blog Post: Quick Musings on RSST (riskparitychronicles.com)
Corey Hoffstein's Return Stacked Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTube
Andrew Beer Interview on Forward Guidance: How Hedge Funds Take Too Much Of Investors' Money (Way Too Much) | Andrew Beer - YouTube
Wikipedia Article about Modern Portfolio Theory: Modern portfolio theory - Wikipedia
MIT Opencourseware for Finance and MPT: Ses 14: Portfolio Theory II - YouTube
Khan Academy Video on Normal Distributions: Introduction to the normal distribution | Probability and Statistics | Khan Academy - YouTube
Normal Distribution Calculator: Normal Distribution Applet/Calculator (uiowa.edu)
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSun, 17 Sep 2023 - 291 - Episode 289: More Lido Shuffling and Monte Carlo Mania, Personal Finance Guru Battles, and Bonds vs. Bond Funds
In this episode we respond to emails from Matt, MyContactInfo, Alexi (a/k/a "Dude") and Sharon. We follow up on Matt's email from Episode 286, talk more about using Portfolio Visualizer and safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, Allan Roth's critique of Wade Pfau's analysis and article and related issues, and individual bonds vs. bond funds.
Links:
Matt's Current Portfolio Monte Carlo Sim: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Similar Allocation Monte Carlo Sim: https://tinyurl.com/2p8twtdp
Golden Butterfly Monte Carlo Sim: https://tinyurl.com/54c9b68x
Modified Golden Ratio Monte Carlo Sim: https://tinyurl.com/4pca2sdh
AQR Paper on Trend Following: A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing (aqr.com)
Retirement & IRA show (Episode EDU #2334): Reexamining The Fun Number, MDF and Secure Income: EDU #2334 - The Retirement and IRA Show
Advisor Perspectives Article #1: Are Fixed Indexed Annuities More Efficient Than Bonds? - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Advisor Perspectives Article #2: Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Wealth of Common Sense Article re Epidemic of Over-saving: You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common Sense
Wealth of Common Sense Article re Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterWed, 13 Sep 2023 - 290 - Episode 288: Truckin' With Kevin In The Easy Chair And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 8, 2023
In this episode we answer a loooooong email from Kevin. We discuss how to use backtesting and Monte Carlo simulations and how they related to safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, classic and modified Risk Parity-style portfolios, assorted variables and metrics, sizing allocations, Kevin's overall portfolio. And conclude with Monty Python and Kevin singing.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Early Retirement Now Toolbox with Over 100 Years of Data: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement Now
Ray Dalio Holy Grail Principle Video: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube
Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article: Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL
Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Wealth of Common Sense Article re the Epidemic of Over-saving: You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common Sense
Walk4McKenna Sign-up Page: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterSun, 10 Sep 2023 - 289 - Episode 287: The Big Mo, Emerging Market GDP Follies, And Flying On A Golden Butterfly
In this episode we answer emails from Chas, MyContactInfo and JDM. We discuss momentum-based funds and strategies (see also Episodes 218, 231 and 234), the inherent difficulties of trying to use GDP and other macro-economic data to make investing decisions and the basics of implementing a Golden Butterfly portfolio.
Links:
AQR Article -- Fama on Momentum: Fama on Momentum (aqr.com)
Interview of Professor Fama: INVESTORS FROM THE MOON: FAMA (top1000funds.com)
Chas' Asset Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
VIOV vs. XSVM vs. DFSVX: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Swedroe Article re GDP and Emerging Markets: Is there a link between GDP growth and emerging market returns? | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)Thu, 07 Sep 2023 - 288 - Episode 286: A 457 Plan, A Leveraged Portfolio And Lido Advisors Walked Into Our Dive Bar
In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Blake and Matt. We discuss investing in a 457 plan with a self-directed option, Blake's gambling problem -- err, very interesting leveraged portfolio, and how to evaluate RIAs through their SEC filings as applied to Lido.
Links:
Analysis of Total Market vs. 60/20/20 vs. Large cap/small cap value portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Michael Kitces article re Four Phases of Retirement Planning: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)
Lido Firm Brochure (Part 2A of SEC Form ADV): crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx (sec.gov)
OASDX: OASDX – Oakhurst Strategic Defined Risk Instl Fund Stock Price | Morningstar
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna CenterWed, 30 Aug 2023 - 287 - Episode 285: Asset Glamping With Leverage and Treasury Bonds
In this episode we answer emails from Chas, Keith and Fritz. We discuss the new Asset Camp tool offered by David Stein, basic issues of leverage (listen also Episodes 258 and 259) and the recent performance of long term treasury bonds.
Links:
Asset Camp: Asset Camp - Asset Camp
Ben Carlson blog post: Everything & Everyone Underperforms Eventually - A Wealth of Common Sense
Rational Reminder video about leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Optimized Portfolios -- Beating the market with leverage: How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index Investing (optimizedportfolio.com)Thu, 24 Aug 2023 - 286 - Episode 284: Goring Assorted Sacred Cows And Bad Decision-Making Processes, Checking Out Value-Weighting And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 18, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Jimmy, John and MyContactInfo. We discuss the foibles of trying to make investment decisions based on news, politics or macro-economic events, Joel Greenblatt's investment methodologies re value-weighting from 2010 and where there are today, and learn some more from Professor Aswath Damodaran about why you cannot use market valuation metrics and P/E ratios as a basis for decision-making in investing.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Truflation -- Realtime Inflation Data: Independent, economic & financial data in real time on-chain (truflation.com)
Daniela Di Martino Video re Jay Powell and Truflation: Ted Oakley and DiMartino Booth on Fed policy, employment implications, and debt implications - YouTube
Hugh Hendry and Jim Bianco debating Interest Rates and Inflation: Macro Musings with Jim Bianco (preview) - YouTube
Value-Weighted Indexing Site (circa 2011): Value Weighted Index – A New Approach to Long-Term Investing
Gotham Funds (Greenblatt Managed): Home Page : Gotham (gothamfunds.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of GVALX: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Professor Damodaran's Latest And Greatest: Musings on Markets: The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)Sun, 20 Aug 2023 - 285 - Episode 283: Personality Traits, More Managed Futures And CTA, And Bonus British Economic History
In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Wesley and Tom. We make fun of the host and talk about his personality traits and the Big Five personality test, Wesley's portfolio and the new managed futures fund, CTA, and a question about the historical performance about stocks in Great Britain.
Links:
Revisionist History Podcast re Cliff Asness and Disagreeableness: Malcolm Gladwell's 12 Rules for Life | Revisionist History | Malcolm Gladwell - YouTube
Big Five Personality Test: Free open-source BigFive personality traits test - Big Five (bigfive-test.com)
Wesley's Portfolio Backtest: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Meb Faber Podcast with Animal Spirits Guys re Managed Futures for Diversification: Episode #493: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson - What’s Your Favorite Diversifier? PLUS: Future Proof! - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
CTA ETF page: CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Simplify
KMLM ETF page: KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF | KMLM (kfafunds.com)
FRED Data re U.K. Stock Market History: How has the U.K. stock market fared lo these past 300 years? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)Wed, 16 Aug 2023 - 284 - Episode 282: A Long Letter Of Gratitude, Principles, Assorted Asset Considerations And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 11, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Kevin, Philip and Brown. We discuss (and thank) our generous listeners, our three principles -- Simplicity, Macro-allocation and Holy Grail -- and why they need to work together, using conservative portfolios for accumulation, investing in international funds in a sensible manner to maximize diversification and international currency risks, investing in utilities funds (listen also Episode 27) and property & casualty insurance companies. Whew!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Main Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
Holy Grail Principle Video: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube
Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of Utilities vs. REITs vs. P&C Insurance: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Sun, 13 Aug 2023 - 283 - Episode 281: Fun With Simulators And Alaskan Golden Butterish Portfolios
In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, Micah and Chris. We discuss some data anomalies of Portfolio Visualizer pertaining to REITs, how to interpret and use Monte Carlo simulations, a more aggressive variation of the Golden Butterfly portfolio (similar to the Weird Portfolio) and the recent performance of the Golden Butterfly portfolio itself.
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer REIT Data: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Micah's Alaskan Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The Weird Portfolio: Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Risk-Return Comparison Analyzer of Your Portfolio vs. 19 Others: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio ChartsWed, 09 Aug 2023 - 282 - Episode 280: Kitces And Bernstein (And Bears, Oh My!) And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 4, 2023
In this episode we answer an email from Judy. We discuss a 2013 Michael Kitces article about risk parity, which aspects we have incorporated and which we have not (and why), and then talk about an interview of William Bernstein about his new book and some related thoughts and ramifications about bonds, crystal balls, annuities and other things. (Note: I think I said it was the 4th edition, but its really just the 2d.)
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
2013 Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article: Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL
Morningstar Long View Interview of William Bernstein: Bill Bernstein: Revisiting The Four Pillars of Investing | Morningstar
Morningstar Long View Interview of Aswath Damodaran: Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar
Factor Investing Book: Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Andrew L Berkin | GoodreadsSat, 05 Aug 2023 - 281 - Episode 279: Reviewing Pete's Portfolio, Savaging Buffered Funds And Other Malfeasance
In this episode we open up Season Four by answering emails from Pete, Arnold and Igor. We discuss Pete's slightly levered Golden Ratio type portfolio, TJUL and buffered funds generally and a Portfolio Visualizer anomaly. It's Shplendid!
Links:
Optimized Portfolio Article re UPRO and other leveraged ETFs: The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2023) (optimizedportfolio.com)
EDV and ZROX Comparison: ZROZ vs. EDV ETF Comparison Analysis | etf.com
Perfect Portfolio Book: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo | Goodreads
Barry Ritholtz Article re TJUL: My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)Wed, 02 Aug 2023 - 280 - Episode 278: Closing Out Year Three With Our Annual Rebalancings
In this episode we close out Season Three with a discussion of the annual rebalancings we performed last week on four of the Sample Portfolios -- the All Seasons, the Golden Butterfly, the Golden Ratio and the Risk Parity Ultimate.
It's nitty and its gritty.
Link to Portfolios Page: Portfolios | Risk Parity RadioWed, 26 Jul 2023 - 279 - Episode 277: Musings With French Physicists About Advanced Modelling And Comparing Small Cap Funds
In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Stanley. We discuss a podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud about methods of analyzing complex systems and financial markets and compare investments in small cap blend and small cap value funds.
Links:
Rick Bookstaber podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud: Seeking Risk: The Fab Rick Show: The Science of Risk (libsyn.com)
The Origin of Wealth book: Amazon.com: The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business and Society: 9781422121030: Beinhocker, Eric D.: Books
Random Matrix Analysis: Random matrix - Wikipedia
Dragon Kings Article: Dragon king theory - Wikipedia
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Small Cap Blend vs. Small Cap Value: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Wed, 19 Jul 2023 - 278 - Episode 276: What "They" Don't Want You To Know About The FIRE Movement, A Case Study And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 14, 2023
In this episode we answer an email from Marcy. We discuss the modern and extended histories of the FIRE movement, FIRE movements and FIRE literature of the past from the 19th Century and beyond, the parallels of modern portfolio mistakes with those of FIRE circa 1990, and do a case study of Marcy's FIRE goals and portfolio using Portfolio Visualizer. (Errata -- I said "21%" for two allocations in the third portfolio when I meant 26%.)
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Local TV News Story on Father McKenna Center: Father McKenna Center seeks men’s clothing donations in DC – NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)
My 2016 Essay about FIRE: Prospecting Mimetic Fractals - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
Quiet Life video: In Praise of The Quiet Life - YouTube
Ramit Sethi video with the Jensens: “We achieved FIRE with $4.3M. Why can’t we enjoy it?” | IWT 108 | Ramit Sethi - YouTube
Ramit Sethi with the Mad Fientist: Ramit Sethi – How to Spend (and Actually Enjoy It) - YouTube
Mad Fientist Blog Post re Ways to Spend More Money: The Problem with the 4% Rule (and Why You Could Retire Even Sooner) (madfientist.com)
Terhorst's Blog: Welcome to Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog – Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog (wordpress.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Marcy's Proposed Retirement Portfolio: https://tinyurl.com/bdnmmubh
PV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 1 (Golden Butterfly): https://tinyurl.com/bd5dtndd
PV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 2 (Golden Ratio): https://tinyurl.com/9fkjx5b9
Portfolio Charts Calculators: Charts – Portfolio Charts
Recent Interview of Gwen Merz: Navigating Career Transitions: Gwen Merz's Inspiring Journey from Corporate Success to Entrepreneur — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)
Diania Merriam: Diania Merriam: Who the hell am I? - YouTube
Rose Lounsbury Site: Home - Rose LounsburySun, 16 Jul 2023 - 277 - Episode 275: A Bigger Boat For Long Term Care And Portfolio Construction Musings
In this episode we answer questions from Esek and Jeffrey. We discuss the difficulties of assessing long term care needs and potential approaches and how RP portfolios differ and are similar to other approaches, such as buffered stock funds.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Charts Heat Map Calculator: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts
Larry Swedroe Discussing His Personal Portfolio Involving 50% Alternative Assets: Show Us Your Portfolio: Larry Swedroe - YouTubeThu, 13 Jul 2023 - 276 - Episode 274: The Pitfalls of Retirement Calculators and Being Unrealistically Conservative, AI Musings And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 7. 2023
In this episode we answer questions from Shplendid Spencer, Russel and MyContactInfo. We discuss the pros and cons of online calculators and how they are commonly inadequate and/or misused, why being conservative beyond realistic possibilities is probably not a good idea overall, and an article by Aswath Damodaran about Nvidia, the chip industry and the implications of AI for DIY investing. CORRECTION: I said the Heat Map calculator was at Portfolio Visualizer -- it's actually at Portfolio Charts at the link below.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Spencer's Tool Link: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data (engaging-data.com)
Similar Portfolio Visualizer Analysis Tool: Asset Liability Modeling (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Tyler on Security Analysis Podcast: Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)
Portfolio Charts Heat Map Tool: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts
Article on The Top Five Regrets of the Dying: The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - Wikipedia
List of Cognitive Biases: The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
Aswath Damodaran Article: Musings on Markets: AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)Sun, 09 Jul 2023 - 275 - Episode 273: Celebrating A Milestone With Some Old Friends. Revisiting The Holy Grail Principle And Using Berkshire Hathaway
In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and Brown. We discuss passing 500,000 downloads, hi and jinks, the relationship between returns, the projected safe withdrawal rate and the Holy Grail principle, and using Berkshire Hathaway as a basis for portfolio construction.
Links:
Value Stock Geek with Your Truly: The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts
The All Weather Strategy Paper: Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)Wed, 05 Jul 2023 - 274 - Episode 272: More On DBMF, A Frolic And Detour Into Rowing, Asset Location Basics And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 30, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Thurston Howell VI, MyContactInfo and Keith. We discuss DBMF and managed futures funds generally, my family's rapture with the sport of rowing and how to make basic asset location decisions to minimize taxes.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Barry Ritholtz Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF) (2021): Andrew Beer on the Hedge Fund Industry (Podcast) - Masters in Business - Omny.fm
DBMF Web Page: iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | iMGP Funds
DBMF Current Holdings Link (download): https://partnerselectfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Holdings/DBMF-Holdings.xlsx
Taxation of Gold -- CNBC Article with links: Gold, silver ETF owners face 28% top tax rate on capital gains (cnbc.com)
Asset Swap Tutorial from Justin/Risk Parity Chronicles: How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTubeSun, 02 Jul 2023 - 273 - Episode 271: Fun With Funds From ITOT To TSP-F To VCSAX
In this episode we answer questions from Pedro, Graham and Nathan. We discuss creating a Golden Ratio portfolio out of ITOT and other things, what to do about bond fund choices in a TSP and the ins and outs of the VCSAX Consumer Staples Fund.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
TSP F Fund Page: F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
ITOT Analysis: ITOT – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF | Morningstar
Optimal Finance Daily Podcast: Optimal Finance Daily - Personal Finance Podcast (oldpodcast.com)
Diania Merriam Interview: Video How 1 woman went from having debt to retiring in 5 years - ABC News (go.com)
VCSAX Analysis: VCSAX – Portfolio – Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Admiral | Morningstar
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Consumer Staples Fund vs. 80/20 vs. 50/50: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Thu, 29 Jun 2023 - 272 - Episode 270: Ergodicity In Investing And Life, A Listener's Golden Ratio Portfolio, Dividend Truths And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 23, 2023
In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Anonymous and Arun. We discuss a podcast and article about the concept of Ergodicity and how to apply it, a variation of the Golden Ratio portfolio from one of our listeners recently discussed in an interview, and the illusory benefits of dividend-paying stocks and related delusions.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
EconTalk Podcast on Ergodicity: Luca Dellanna on Risk, Ruin, and Ergodicity | EconTalk
Taylor Pearson Article on Ergodicity: Ergodicity: A Simple Explanation of Ergodic vs. Non-Ergodic (taylorpearson.me)
Picture Perfect Portfolios Article about a Golden Ratio-style portfolio and others: 100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)
Three Ben Felix Videos About the Irrelevance of Dividends:
The Irrelevance of Dividends - YouTube
The Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance - YouTube
Dividend Growth Investing - YouTube
Intel's 2023 Dividend Cut:
Intel cuts dividend to lowest since 2007 to save cash | Reuters
Intel slashes dividend by over 65%, to 12.5 cents (cnbc.com)Sun, 25 Jun 2023 - 271 - Episode 269: Fun With Goldmember, Portfolio Transitions And How To Value A Pension
In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Barry and Rob. We discuss an article about investing in gold from Larry Swedroe and how to read it and the articles cited therein correctly, transitioning from a 60/40 portfolio to a risk-parity style portfolio and taking distributions and how to evaluate a pension vs. a lump sum. Groovy, Baby!
Links:
Swedroe Article: Misguided Investor Expectations on the Risk and Returns of Gold | Wealth Management
"The Golden Dilemma" Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
"The Golden Rule of Investing" Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Correlation Analysis of Swedroe suggestions and gold: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
YouTube Interview of Corey Hoffstein about rebalancing timing: Keeping it Simple Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky? | Simplify
Immediate Annuities Calculator/Free Quotes: Get Your Best Annuity Quote Instantly Online! Without any sales calls. Your phone# is not required. — ImmediateAnnuities.comThu, 22 Jun 2023 - 270 - Episode 268: Jennie We Got Your Number, Alternatives And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 16, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Jennie, Chris and Visitor 5622. We discuss Jennie's retirement situation, BTAL and long dollar funds, and VTI musings.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Value Stock Geek with Your Truly: The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts
Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Sequencer: Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)
BTAL Web Page: AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | AGF.com
Morningstar Analysis of VTI: VTI – Portfolio – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | MorningstarSun, 18 Jun 2023 - 269 - Episode 267: A Free Steak Dinner Mini-Rant, Managed Futures Funds, Emerson And What To Do When You Are Early FI
In this episode we begin with a mini-rant about the THREE free steak dinner invitations we received recently. Then we answer emails from Drew, Lauren and Joe. We go over a number of useful links and information about managed futures from Drew following up on Episode 265, talk about Emerson and Jeopardy, and what to do when you reach Financial Independence early at age 39.
Links:
Charlie Munger Misjudgment Speech: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment - Charlie Munger Full Speech - YouTube
TLDL Shorter Animated Version: Charlie Munger - 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment in 15 minutes - YouTube
Alpha Architect QVAL Fund Page: QVAL - Alpha Architect ETFs
AQR's AQMIX Fund Page: AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund - AQMIX
Societe Generale CTA Indices Page: Prime Services (Newedge) Indices (societegenerale.com)
Art of Manliness Podcast About Emerson: Podcast #904: How Emerson Can Help You Become a Stoic Nonconformist | The Art of Manliness
Value Stock Geek Security Analysis Website: Security Analysis | Value Stock Geek | Substack
Weird Portfolio Page At Portfolio Charts: Weird Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsWed, 14 Jun 2023 - 268 - Episode 266: Dude Musings, Fun With Fallacies, Variable Preferred Shares And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 9, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a/ "the Dude"), Pete and Dean. We discuss box spreads, trying to market-time t-bills and interest rates, a whole host of logical fallacies and cognitive biases and a variable preferred shares fund (VRP) and what it does and doesn't do.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Alpha Architect On Box Spreads: Box Spreads: An Alternative to Treasury Bills? (alphaarchitect.com)
Alpha Architect Paper On Size And Value Tilts: AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf (alphaarchitect.com)
You Are Not So Smart Fallacy Podcasts (check out ones in the 60s or word search "fallacy"): Podcast – You Are Not So Smart
Sample Gerd Gigerenzer Lecture: Risk literacy: Gerd Gigerenzer at TEDxZurich - YouTube
Risk Savvy book: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | Goodreads
Summary of Prospecting Theory and Cognitive Biases: The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
Dan Ariely Books: Books - Dan Ariely
Freakonomics Episode On Slippery Slopes: Enough with the Slippery Slopes! - FreakonomicsSun, 11 Jun 2023 - 267 - Episode 265: Short-Term Asset Considerations, Expense-Tracking Methodologies And Managed Futures Funds Debates
In this episode we answer emails from George, Danny, and Jamie. We discuss short-term asset allocations and considerations thereabouts, expense-tracking methodologies (led by Sister Stigmata), and manager-run managed futures funds versus replication-based funds.
Links:
QMHNX Page: AQR Managed Futures Strategy HV Fund - QMHNX
Podcast Debate about Managed Futures Funds: 246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 | Top Traders UnpluggedThu, 08 Jun 2023 - 266 - Episode 264: Assorted Monte Carlo Simulations, Leveraged Portfolios, Valuation-Related Crystal Balls And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 2, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark. We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Become a Patron and Support our Charity: Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | Patreon
Monte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994: https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9c
Monte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s: https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xftt
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast: Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar
Aswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)
Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014: Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)
Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016: Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)Sun, 04 Jun 2023 - 265 - Episode 263: A Common Modeling Mistake, Low Beta Funds, And Fun With Finland
In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako. We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere.
Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests.
Links:
Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts: Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Rational Reminder Interview of Professor Campbell: Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors | Rational Reminder 250 - YouTube
Analysis of Low Beta Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Mark's Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Fund Page for Jaako's Fund: Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF - Acc | LYX0U6 | LU1390062245 (justetf.com)Wed, 31 May 2023 - 264 - Episode 262: Lessons From Last Year, Sleeping Better With Conservative Portfolios And Gambling Problems
In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude"). We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ.
Links:
Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility: SSRN-id1436124.pdf
Portfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator: FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE – Portfolio Charts
Alexi's UDOW/TQQQ Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Long Term Analysis of Total Market vs. 50/50 Large Cap Growth/Value: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Thu, 25 May 2023 - 263 - Episode 261: Capital Gains Taxes, Reducing Personal Inflation With Housing, And The Inherent Mental Accounting Of Bucket Strategies
In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark, Kasey and Eric. We discuss a Kitces article about managing capital gains tax brackets, some of Mark's favorite episodes -- 208 on ideas for beginning investors and 209 about common safe-withdrawal-rate hysterias, Big ERNs' blog post on personal inflation rates and my response on his site, and the problems of substituting mental accounting about buckets and other things with actual strategies.
Links:
Michael Kitces Article: The Tax Impact Of The Long-Term Capital Gains Bump Zone (kitces.com)
Early Retirement Now Blog Post: Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57 – Early Retirement Now
2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies: Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar
Earn & Invest Interview of Christine Benz about the Morningstar Report: Are Safe Withdrawal Debates Ridiculous — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)
Ben Carlson Post on the inherent Mental Accounting of Bucket Strategies: The Mental Accounting of Asset Allocation - A Wealth of Common SenseWed, 17 May 2023 - 262 - Episode 260: UPAR, De-dollarization Hysteria, And Using Risk Parity Portfolios For Intermediate Term Goals
In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Carlos and Eric. We discuss the UPAR and RPAR risk parity ETFs and their construction, rant a bit about TIPS, discuss attractive narratives about de-dollarization in the context of cognitive biases (the possibility effect and ignoring base rates) and how our adult children use a Golden Ratio-style portfolio to save for intermediate goals.
Links:
Father McKenna Center donation page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
UPAR webpage: UPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)
Michael Kitces interview: Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | The Long View (simplecast.com)
De-dollarization article: De-dollarization Has Begun. | AIERWed, 10 May 2023 - 261 - Episode 259: FI With Friends, Bid/Ask Spreads, Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs and GDMN
In this episode we answer emails from Eric (x2), Ron and Jeffrey. We discuss the EconoMe Conference, my friendship with Diania Merriam, bid/ask spreads at various brokerages, an exquisite analysis of margin leverage vs. leveraged ETFs and the gold/gold miner fund GDMN.
Links:
EconoMe Conference 2024: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024
Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Ron's Leverage Analysis I: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Ron's Leverage Analysis II: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Article re Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs: Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs | Cumberland Advisors
Corey Hoffstein Interview About Using Leveraged ETFs: How to Improve a 100% Stock Portfolio Using Return Stacking w/ Corey Hoffstein (theinvestorspodcast.com)
GDMN ETF webpage: Global Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy ETF Fund| WisdomTreeWed, 03 May 2023 - 260 - Episode 258: Stable Value Funds, Elder-Age Considerations, Learning About Leverage, And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of April 28, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Bob (one of the famous Bobs), Mitchell and Davis. We discuss stable value funds vs. intermediate treasury bond funds, thinking about management issues in your 80s (and your parents), and what we have learned about leverage in portfolios since 2020.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Rational Reminder video about leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Optimized Portfolios -- Beating the market with leverage: How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index Investing (optimizedportfolio.com)Sat, 29 Apr 2023 - 259 - Episode 257: This One Goes To Eleven And Then To Xibalba -- Be Forewarned!
In this short but jammed-packed episode, we goof off with some of our regulars and answer emails from Brian, Alexi (a/k/a the "Dude"), MyContactInfo and Kasip. We address a variety of random musings about some new treasury bond ETFs and Simply ETFs, Flight of the Conchords humor, what AI has to say about Medicare Advantage and Medigap, and what to do as a resident alien about a 401k.
I can't make these emails up! We'll get back to our normal level of absurdity next time.
Links:
New Treasury Bond ETFs: ETFs | Invest in the US Treasury Market | US Benchmark Series (ustreasuryetf.com)
Animal Spirits Podcast re Treasury Bond ETFs: Animal Spirits Podcast: Talk Your Book: How to Buy Treasuries (libsyn.com)
Animal Spirits Podcast re Simplify ETFs: Animal Spirits Podcast: Talk Your Book: Diversify Your Diversifiers (libsyn.com)Wed, 26 Apr 2023 - 258 - Episode 256: Exploring The Transcendentalists, Basic Portfolio Comparisons, Bill Bernstein's Bond Ladder And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 21, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Lauren, Paul and MyContactInfo. We discuss Emerson and Thoreau and how we apply their teachings, comparing risk parity style portfolios with others using Portfolio Charts, and an article about Bill Bernstein's new bond ladder and how it fits in.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Self Reliance by Emerson: Self Reliance by Ralph Waldo Emerson (Full Text) (thefreshreads.com)
A Guide to Self Reliance: Self-Reliance: Change Your Life For The Better - Ralph Waldo Emerson (emersoncentral.com)
Parable of the Ham: The Parable of the Ham – Results Typical
Golden Butterfly Portfolio Particulars: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
60/40 Portfolio Particulars: Classic 60-40 – Portfolio Charts
Three-Fund Portfolio Particulars: Three-Fund Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Risk-Reward Comparisons of Common Portfolios: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
2022 Comparisons of Common Portfolios: Learning the Hard Way: 2022 Portfolio Rankings – Portfolio Charts
Bill Bernstein Article about his new Bond Ladder: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesSat, 22 Apr 2023 - 257 - Episode 255: Some 401k/IRA Basics, Reading Articles With Critical Thinking, And More On Leveraged Funds
In this episode we answer emails from Javier, Adam, and Jeff. We discuss what to do with limited 401k options and the Macro Allocation Principle, revisit an academic article we discussed in Episode 251 with some additional critical thinking skills, and talk some about Corey Hoffstein's return stacking, developments in leveraged fund and the Pimco StocksPlus family.
Links:
Rational Reminder Video re Using Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
RSBT Fund Page: Bonds Managed Futures - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Lots of Articles About Leveraged ETFs: Leverage | Optimized Portfolio
Morningstar Analysis of Pimco StocksPlus: PSTKX – PIMCO StocksPLUS® Instl Fund Stock Price | MorningstarThu, 20 Apr 2023 - 256 - Episode 254: A Volatility ETF, Treasury Bonds and Brazil! And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 14, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Javier, Heath and Joao. We discuss Simplify's short VIX ETF, "SVOL", and the difficulties of investing in volatility, the anomalous circumstances of 2022 and how it affected treasury bonds, and a bit about taxation in Brazil (about which I really know nothing).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Simplify's SVOL ETF: SVOL Simplify Volatility Premium ETF | SimplifySun, 16 Apr 2023 - 255 - Episode 253: A Taxonomy of Withdrawal Strategies And Analyses Of Their Components
In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Chris. We follow up on Episode 251 with a taxonomy of five withdrawal strategies described in an article from the CFA institute and discuss a "not really a withdrawal strategy" that is classified as a form of mental accounting and does not impact safe withdrawal rates (at least not in a positive manner). We talk about how to classify annuities, bond ladders and portfolio-based withdrawal strategies. And we thank Chris and our other charitable donors for their support.
Links:
CFA Institute Article: Retirement Income: Six Strategies | CFA Institute Enterprising Investor
Money with Katie interview of Bill Bengen: Does Early Retirement Still Work With 2023 Inflation? Featuring Bill Bengen | The Money with Katie Show
Allan Roth Article About His Bond Ladder: The 4% Rule Just Became a Whole Lot Easier - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Allan Roth Article Complaining About Morningstar Projections: Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna CenterWed, 12 Apr 2023 - 254 - Episode 252: Factor Funds, Portfolio Construction Principles, Rebalancing Research And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 7, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Andreas and Brad. We discuss algorithmic factor funds like AVUV vs. basic index factor funds, basic principles of portfolio construction, low volatility funds, and the rebalancing research of Corey Hoffstein.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Simplify Interview of Corey Hoffstein about rebalancing: Keeping it Simple Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky? | Simplify
Corey Hoffstein Interview and Papers: Rebalance Timing Luck - Newfound Research (thinknewfound.com)
Corey Hoffstein Interview Regarding Personal Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTube
Corey Hoffstein Discussing the Return Stacking Strategy: Corey Hoffstein on Return Stacking - YouTube
Optimized Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)Sun, 09 Apr 2023 - 253 - Episode 251: Separating Withdrawal Strategy Dogs & Tails, Yet More Leveraged Fund Fun And Poking At Some Portfolio Pessimists
In this episode we answer emails from Pete, MyContactInfo and Jenzo. We discuss leveraged funds, a paper about holding them longer term and optimal leverage, analyzing leveraged portfolios, meta-concepts of retirement portfolio planning and how to separate the critical components of a withdrawal strategy (the dogs) from various management techniques, labeling methods and mental accounting (the tails), and last year's scare paper about hyper-low safe withdrawal rates of poorly constructed international portfolios.
Links:
Leveraged Portfolios Article/Paper: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)
Sample Optimized Portfolios Article: What Is a Leveraged ETF and How Do They Work? (optimizedportfolio.com)
Analysis of UPRO vs S&P: https://tinyurl.com/me4c2xj9
Analysis of TNA vs. IWM: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Analysis of TMF vs. TLT: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Risk/Reward Calculator: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Visualizer Efficient Frontier Tool: Efficient Frontier (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bond Funds vs. Bond Ladders: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense
Low Safe Withdrawal Rate Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)Thu, 06 Apr 2023 - 252 - Episode 250: Gold Standards, Leveraged Funds, Short Sellers, Plutonian Nyborg And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 31, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Carmello, Trevor, Timothy and Andreas. We discuss some of the history of the gold standard and inflation, leveraged funds, portfolio reviews, short sellers and Fidelity's recent forays into risk parity.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Cross of Gold Speech Article: Cross of Gold speech - Wikipedia
Optimized Portfolios Site on Leveraged Funds: Leverage | Optimized Portfolio
Rational Reminder Video on Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Fidelity's New Risk Parity Fund: Fidelity Risk Parity Fund (FAPSX) | Fidelity Institutional
Fidelity's Presentation on its Risk Parity Fund: Fidelity Liquid Alternative Funds Presentation | Fidelity InstitutionalSun, 02 Apr 2023 - 251 - Episode 249: Municipal Bonds, Preferred Shares, Planning Calculators and Newman!
In this episode we answer emails from Wesley, Mark and a different Mark. And an errant comment from his Dude-ness, Alexi. We discuss how municipal bond funds might be used in risk-parity style portfolios and how not, a couple of interesting newer financial planning calculators and the planning process I actually use instead to account for liquidity issues, asset allocations in accumulation when options are limited and the ins and outs of preferred shares funds like PFF. And then we goof off. Again.
Links:
Correlation Matrix with Municipal Bond Fund: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ETF Research Center Financial Tool: ETF Research Center (etfrc.com)
Projection Labs Financial Tool: ProjectionLab - Simulate your financial future and plan for financial independence.Wed, 29 Mar 2023 - 250 - Episode 248: Crazy Rising Rate Funds, Levered Constructions, Correlation Data Anomalies And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 24, 2023
In this episode we answer two emails from Alexi (a/k/a the "Dude") and another from Barry. We discuss funds that are designed to take advantage of rising interest rates like RRH, RISR and PFIX, another Dude-constructed accumulation portfolio with leveraged funds and some portfolio construction rules of thumb, and the noisy-ness of correlation data and matrices.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
PFIX Webpage and Resources: PFIX Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF | Simplify
The Dude's New Portfolio Constructions compared with S&P500: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Correlation Tool: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bogleheads Post about Morningstar Correlation Data: Morningstar Correlation Matrix - Bogleheads.orgSun, 26 Mar 2023 - 249 - Episode 247: Back In The Saddle With Some Wide-Ranging Emails, Chihuahuas And My Wild Years
In this episode we answer emails from Clint, Jeff and Penny. We discuss brokerage firms and solvency issues, estimating expenses for long retirements and basic tax considerations in portfolio management.
Links:
Rob Berger Video About Brokerages and Solvency: What Happens to Our Investments if Schwab, Fidelity or Vanguard Collapse? - YouTube
Morningstar 2022 Retirement Report Download Page: 2022 Retirement Withdrawal Strategies Report | Morningstar
Portfolio Charts Article with Tax Loss Harvesting Pairs: Harvesting the Fall: Why I Sold All My Bonds – Portfolio Charts
Go Curry Cracker Article Re Tax Savings: Never Pay Taxes Again - Go Curry Cracker!Wed, 22 Mar 2023 - 248 - Episode 246: Risk Parity ETFs, Leverage, Alternatives, Podcasts and Ohio!
In this episode we answer emails from Kevin, Graham and Boone. We discuss the risk parity ETFs, RPAR and UPAR, leveraged portfolios, alternative assets, ETFs and some of the podcasts I'm listening to these days.
Links:
RPAR webpage: RPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)
Risk Parity Book Review: Top 10 Risk Parity Resources: #10... Shahidi (2021) (riskparitychronicles.com)
CFA Institute Manual Article: chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)
Rational Reminder Video about Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Sound Investing Podcast: Sound Investing on Apple Podcasts
Money With Katie Podcast: The Money with Katie Show
Money With Katie Portfolio Analysis Blogpost: How to Diversify Outside of the Total Stock Market — Millennial Money with Katie
Ramit Sethi Podcast: Podcast - I Will Teach You To Be Rich
Macro Trading Floor Podcast: The Macro Trading Floor on Apple Podcasts
Eurodollar University Podcast: General 2 — Eurodollar University
Gestalt University Podcast: Resolve's Gestalt University on Apple Podcasts
Alpha Exchange Podcast: Alpha Exchange on Apple Podcasts
Excess Returns YouTube Channel (Corey Hoffstein Episode): Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTube
Retirement Planning Education YouTube Channel: Retirement Planning Education - YouTubeThu, 16 Mar 2023 - 247 - Episode 245: Gold And Bonds And Sonia, Oh My! And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 3, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Anonymous, Jeffrey and Anderson. We discuss locations for putting gold in various accounts, rant about the physical gold racket, discuss theoretical and practical risk parity portfolios, and talk about short and long term treasuries.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Justin's Video Re Asset Swaps: How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTube
Justin's Video Re The Portfolio Visualizer Fund Factor Tool: How to Use the Fund Factor Regression Tool on Portfolio Visualizer - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles YouTube Channel: Risk Parity Chronicles - YouTube
CFA Institute Manual -- Risk Parity Chapter: chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)
Early Retirement Now Article about Gold: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Sonia's Crystal Ball Video: Crystal ball gazing, how to use a Crystal Ball ~ How to Scry with a Crystal Ball ~ by Sonia Parker - YouTube
EconoMe Conference: Our Speakers - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Sat, 04 Mar 2023 - 246 - Episode 244: Fun With New Managed Futures Funds, TIPS Misconceptions And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 24, 2023
In this episode we answer a series of emails from Drew and one from Ms. Annie Mouse. We discuss the fund BLNDX, managed futures and how to analyze new and composite funds and then rant about TIPs misconceptions and uses for your delight and amusement.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Podcast re BLNDX: Creating The Optimal Diversified Portfolio | Eric Crittenden | Episode 64 - The Market Call Show | Podcast on Spotify
Analysis of BLNDX vs. a 50/50 stock/managed futures portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Analysis of 50/50 stock/managed futures portfolio vs. Golden Ratio-style portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
LTPZ vs. TLT analysis: https://tinyurl.com/2fgsgn8o
EconoMe: Our Speakers - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Sun, 26 Feb 2023 - 245 - Episode 243: Dirty Harry's Managed Futures Portfolios, An Asset Replacement Experiment And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 17, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Johnny, Kevin and Daniel. We discussed managed futures vs. commodity funds, the Mt. Lucas "Dirty Portfolios" with KMLM and how to transition from one asset to another in a portfolio with the beginning of a new pedagogical experiment in that.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Dirty Portfolios Article with Dirty Harry Quotes: Dirty Portfolios - Managed Futures As A Portfolio Element (mtlucas.com)
Side-by-Side Analysis Of Original and Planned Golden Ratio Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Side-by-Side Analysis of Original and Planned Levered Golden Ratio Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Sun, 19 Feb 2023 - 244 - Episode 242: Lemmy Joins Some Of The Regulars For Q&A And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 10, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), the effervescent MyContactInfo, and Mike. We discuss a Portfolio Visualizer fund selection tool for factor investing, Merton and other academics, and an uncannily familiar diversified portfolio recently featured in a Marketwatch article. And we play some Motorhead and rant about financial media a bit.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Visualizer Fund Factor Attribution Tool: Mutual Fund and ETF Factor Performance Attribution (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Rational Reminder Interview of Robert C. Merton: Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton: ICAPM, Retirement, and Models in Finance — Rational Reminder
MarketWatch Article: This 'crazy' retirement portfolio has just beaten Wall Street for 50 years - MarketWatch
Easy Improvements to Marketwatch-featured portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Sun, 12 Feb 2023 - 243 - Episode 241: Entertaining The Masses With Asset Selection Tricks And Techniques
In this episode we answer two looooong emails from Mark and Andreas. We discuss Mark's quandaries with a 457 plan and Andreas's Risk Parity fever brought on by topics that include how to choose ETFs for each asset class, leverage in bond funds, TIPS, a proposed portfolio, other alternatives like long-short, market neutral and options strategies and musings about taxes and currency exposures. And then we conclude with Polo Hofer.
Links:
Father McKenna Center donation page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Risk Parity Chronicles video tutorial on asset swapping: How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles series on TIPS: Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com)
ETF Database: ETF Database: The Original & Comprehensive Guide to ETFs (etfdb.com)
Bloomberg Presentation on Asset Classes in Inflationary Environments: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
Vanguard Commodities Paper: Commodity investing and its role in a portfolio (vanguard.com)
Antti Ilmanen books: Books by Antti Ilmanen (Author of Expected Returns) (goodreads.com)
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023Thu, 09 Feb 2023 - 242 - Episode 240: Dirty Harry Kicks Over A Dignity Bucket And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 3, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Esek and Erin. We discuss 529 plans, what is "enough" in terms of this podcast, and THEN the meta approaches to retirement planning and the importance of distinguishing portfolio construction and allocation strategies from portfolio management techniques, including a tour on the Good Ship Lollipop with the Outlaw Josey Wales. Errata: I said "Bernstein assumptions" when I meant "Bengen assumptions."
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
EconoMe Conference link: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Sun, 05 Feb 2023 - 241 - Episode 239: A Potpourri Of Esoteric Eccentricities On Groundhog Day!
In this episode we answer emails from Gareth, Mark and Alex. We talk about the meta-differences in investing in various countries, utilities, long dollar funds like UUP, specialized commodities mutual funds like LCSIX and a couple new leveraged funds with mixed asset classes.
Links:
LCSIX Fact Sheet: LoCorr-Funds-Long-Short-Commodities_fact_sheet.pdf (locorrfunds.com)
Alex's SEC Link To Return Stacked Funds Prospectuses: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000138713122011734/newfound-485apos_112322.htm
Resolve Asset Management Return Stacking White Paper: Return Stacking: Strategies For Overcoming a Low Return Environment (investresolve.com)
Resolve Asset Management YouTube Channel (Video on Risk Parity): Risk Parity Is the Answer: What Was the Question? (EP.18) - YouTube
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Thu, 02 Feb 2023 - 240 - Episode 238: CAPE Crusading, NEWMAN! And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 27, 2023
In this episode we answer emails from Justin and Arun. We discuss the last decade of history of the failed use of CAPE ratios as a crystal ball and the general problems with those approaches, and the inherent limitations and problems with using the personal finance recommendations of theoretical economists.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
CAPE Ratios Article: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong | Research Affiliates
Michael Kitces CAPE Article (2016): Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)
Kitces Critique of November 2021 Morningstar Forecasts Report: Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)
Sector P/E Ratios Article: Sector Valuation: Shiller PE By Sectors - GuruFocus.com
Industry P/E Ratios Article: Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratios by Industry | Eqvista
2022 Morningstar Report: 2022 Retirement Withdrawal Strategies Report | Morningstar
Afford Anything Kotlikoff Interview: #329: Challenging Your Confirmation Bias, with Economist Larry Kotlikoff - Afford Anything
Planet Money Economist Interview: Yale Economist James Choi Analyzes Popular Financial Advice : Planet Money : NPR
Complex Adaptive Systems and the Math that Applies To Them: The Fractal Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
More Than You Know Book: More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael J. Mauboussin | GoodreadsSun, 29 Jan 2023 - 239 - Episode 237: Dropping A Bomb On You With A Ten-Question Analysis Of Inflation-Hedger RRH
In this episode we take the Dude's suggestion and do a detailed analysis of the Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF, ticker symbol RRH.
To conduct our analysis of RRH, we use SPLB, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
RRH Website: Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF (rrhetf.com)
RRH Fact Sheet: Microsoft PowerPoint - Advocate RRH Fund Fact Sheet Jan 2023 v01 (rrhetf.com)
RRH Summary Prospectus: advocate_rrh_summary.pdf (rrhetf.com)
Podcast about RRH: Scott Peng, PhD, Founder and CEO/CIO, Advocate Capital Management - Alpha Exchange | Podcast on Spotify
Asset Correlation Analysis of RRH: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles TIPs Blog Series (Summary and Conclusions): Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com)
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)Wed, 25 Jan 2023
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