The NZ Property Market Podcast

After the short reactionary pod for both the RBNZ Financial Stability Review (FSR), which was pretty stock-standard, and the Q1 labour market stats - which were a little more interesting, this week's pod is shorter than it otherwise would have been. 

First topic of conversation is the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which provided further more compelling evidence of a struggling housing market, particularly in Auckland (to Nick's surprise). 

With more time to digest the labour market stats, Nick then states the potential impact it might have on the OCR later in the year before Kelvin rounds up the underwhelming business confidence survey insights and building consents data. 

And what of Capital Economics' prediction for the Cash Rate in Aussie to see another lift this month? If true what does it say for the RBNZ's approach to "higher, sooner, faster and for longer", when it comes to the OCR here in NZ?

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Hot off the press, Nick and (a travelling) Kelvin catch up to quickly give their take on the just-released Financial Stability Report (FSR) from the Reserve Bank and official Labour Market stats for Q1 2024 from Stats NZ.

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One for the hopeful first home buyers

In this guest special, Nick speaks to Geri Fraser and Heiko Jonkers from Westpac. Geri is the Product lead for Housing and Heiko the Social and Affordable Housing Guru!

The main topics of interest discuss are the shared equity and leasehold options which are often misunderstood or simply not known about. Listen in to hear about what these options are and how Westpac have dedicated considerable commitment to ensure more New Zealanders can take that first step into the housing market. 

This includes understanding the international experiences and lessons learned to bring unique opportunities to life and how local councils, Government agencies and Iwi provide support for those prospective buyers to make their first purchase a reality.

As always the key is to speak to someone in the know and the Westpac first home loans page is a great start with plenty of passionate mobile mortgage managers keen to pass on their knowledge and help navigate what is so often a daunting process and huge life decision.

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There’s always plenty to talk about in the property market, but this week’s discussion basically sets the scene for a big week of data and announcements which could potentially mean a meaty pod next Monday!

The guys start by discussing the latest Buyer Classification data, which showed that first home buyers (FHBs) remained a key presence in March, and that also ties in to the latest mortgage lending figures from the Reserve Bank. Low deposit lending remains relatively restricted – certainly well under the maximum speed limits – but FHBs are still making good use of the system.

Attention then turns to the next few days …. CoreLogic House Price Index for April set to go public on Wednesday, just before the Financial Stability Report at 9am the same day, and the Q1 labour market figures at 10:45. Could the FSR finally detail the rules for debt to income ratio caps? On the labour market, the unemployment rate has probably risen further in Q1, but it might be about more labour supply, rather than mass job losses.

There's some great stuff in this week's episode, but also brace yourselves for a lot to talk about next week!

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Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going. 

Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery. 

That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking. 

On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.

Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now. 

Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.

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After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.

There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.

Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins. 

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The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!

Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the aim of controlling cost pressures.

The guys also cover off last week’s CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and filled jobs data for February – both releases were a little mixed.

It’s another busy one this week too, with more mortgage lending data due, along with CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures and Stats NZ rent figures for March. The Reserve Bank will top it off with another cash rate decision on Wednesday, which is likely to be no change at 5.5%.

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Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).

In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the recession, proving we all pay attention to the media headlines.

Plus, what was up with the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr's media appearance, seemingly paving the way for rate cuts?

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This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?

Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight. 

The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?

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The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.

Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?

Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.

Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.

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On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac. 

Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years.  Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking.  Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their home buying journey.

In the podcast Nick and Joanie really hone in on the first home buying experience - how triple M's help navigate the daunting and sometimes complex process and also some of the specific assistance that Westpac offer (including for Māori and Iwi).

What are some of the misconceptions people have when wanting to buy their own home and similarly what are some of the myths people hold on to when it comes to dealing direct with the bank? Those are just a couple of questions Joanie answers in a conversation that should be a 'must-listen' for all aspiring first home buyers.

For more information about Westpac first home buyer assistance, their MMMs, and how they can help, visit their website westpac.co.nz

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Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release. 

Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.

Outside of that, there's the fourth annual Women & Property report to cover and the latest RBNZ stats on the terms selected by mortgage borrowers recently. 

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This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young. 

Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance. 

Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to problem solving has contributed to her success. Since stepping into the Head of Third Party Distribution role, Amanda advocates for the adviser industry within ASB and is motivated by continuous improvement to make a positive difference for our advisers and their customers.  

Listen in to hear about Amanda's incredible experience, leadership lessons (including staying in the Softball 'Strike zone') and her advice for future leaders. 

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This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.

Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and inconsistency across the country continuing to feature.

The release did however lead to some headline grabbing stuff from Newshub, after Kelvin politely disagreed with ex-PM John Key's assertion that house prices will double in the next 10-years. Needless to say Nick took the opportunity to stir the pot a bit!

Elsewhere Minister Bishop's plans to flood the market with developable land seem laudable but a bit optimistic - certainly conversation starting especially when combined with hopes to drag the house price to income ratio back towards 4.

Plenty to dig into for the start of the week - and there'll be more to come later in the week with International Women's Day on the horizon.

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Clearly the hottest topic this week is whether or not the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate at 2pm Wednesday (28th February). The guys give their takes on this issue, and ultimately, even if the OCR isn’t increased this week, a further rise down the track remains a possibility. Inflation isn’t dead yet!

Meanwhile, the discussion of recent data is focused on our latest NZ Housing Chart Pack, which highlighted a very slow start to the year for property sales activity, and the NZ Activity Index for January – which suggested that the economy is ‘ticking over’; good for jobs, but might underpin some inflation and interest rate pressure.

Also upcoming this week in terms of data: mortgage lending for January, filled jobs, ANZ business and consumer confidence, and new dwelling consents. Generally, the tone of these figures should be slightly positive, although the slide in dwelling consents is obviously a bit more concerning.

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Quite a bit of the data over the past week has reiterated the idea that this recovery, while ongoing, could prove to be patchy/variable/uneven – or whichever synonym you like.

According to the latest CoreLogic Report, affordability has improved on some measures since 2021, but not on others – e.g. mortgage payments as a % of gross average household income are still 49%. And most measures actually got a little worse again in Q4 2023 as house prices started to rise.

Recent data on property sales volumes backs up the ‘patchiness’ theme, with activity across agent-led and private deals, only 2% higher in January than the same month in 2023 – which was itself a 40-year low for that month of the year. Clearly, volumes remains soft.

Meanwhile, net migration remains high (albeit easing), and this is pressuring the supply/demand balance for tenants, pushing up rents.

The guys also looked at the latest stats on debt to income ratios and found ‘more of the same’ – DTIs are currently under control, thanks to high mortgage rates.

This week, it’s reasonably quiet for data releases, only watching for the NZ Activity Index for January on Thursday. It might be ‘middle of the road’.

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At face value, a rise in unemployment could never be a good thing …. but as the guys discuss this week, it’s a bit more nuanced than that.

For a start, last week’s rise in the unemployment rate wasn’t driven by job losses, but instead a larger increase in the pool of available workers. And a 4% unemployment rate is still very low anyway. Those are the ‘good’ things.

But on the flipside, could the smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment actually lead to another increase in the official cash rate? Increased employment supports the property market, but another OCR rise would be a potential headwind.

Meanwhile, this week’s episode also covers the latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report for Q4 2023, showing early signs of a turning point for property resale performance. Buyer Classification for January is also discussed, as well as the data for December showing that most people are choosing to fix their mortgages for shorter periods.

There was also good news in the form of the latest National Construction Pipeline Report, which suggested that the current slowdown in new dwelling consents (and future construction activity) isn’t likely to reach the depths of the post-GFC episode. That’s positive in terms of reducing the risk of housing supply shortages.

This week, look out for the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, REINZ January figures, December net migration, January rent prices, and Q4 DTI stats.

Our new, monthly article series for Trademe is also discussed, and can be seen here.

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This week, Nick chats to Paulette Trotter, director and advisor at Loan Market Auckland, who was the number 1 mortgage advisor in NZ in 2023.

Paulette's experience in the industry is vast and hugely successful. In this discussion Paulette discusses how the property market has kicked off in 2024, with first home buyers remaining a consistent presence. 

She speaks about some of the differences across the Auckland market, including interest in new build properties and the relative importance of tax changes and interest rates to potential property investors. 

Nick and Paulette also discuss the roles and influence of both the new Government and the RBNZ, including the proposed debt-to-income limits and loosening of the loan to value ratio restrictions.

Lastly, Paulette offers up a few keys to success for her and her team Loan Market and a few tidbits of advice for good measure too.

Contact Paulette at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/paulette-trotter
P: 021 820 473
E:paulette.trotter@loanmarket.co.nz 

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The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!

Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the CCCFA rules again over the next few months – adding to some impetus for the property market – but also Paul Conway’s (RBNZ Chief Economist) speech which poured cold water on the idea that the official cash rate might be cut soon.

Elsewhere, mortgage lending activity continues to rise from a low base, consumer and business confidence are generally trending higher (but not consistently), while dwelling consents are still falling – and HUD was in the news for suggesting that the annual total, currently 37,000, could dip to around 32,000.

Coming up this week – big labour market news (unemployment rate likely to be higher but due to more workers not job losses), mortgage lending by the term of the loan chosen, and CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures for January.

All in all, plenty to discuss – oh, and the cricket at Bay Oval too.

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More heat across the country and plenty of data to talk about this week too, starting with the latest inflation figures for Q4 2023.

The CPI/inflation trend is definitely in the right direction, but with domestic/non-tradable prices such as rents and council rates still a bit problematic, the OCR isn’t likely to be cut in the near term. But cuts are possibly on the cards for the second half of the year, with some falls in shorter term fixed mortgage rates also likely.

With the dust settling on the RBNZ’s announcement about LVRs and DTIs, Nick and Kelvin also give a quick update this week, which reiterates that there could be a net boost to property activity around the middle of the year, but also that borrowers who are currently above the DTI limits shouldn’t panic – the rules aren’t retrospective.

Plenty of other data to cover too – including last week’s December NZ Activity Index (ok-ish), and then this week’s filled jobs for December (Monday), mortgage lending for December (Monday), foreign buyers for Q4 (Tuesday), ANZ business confidence (Wed.) and consumer confidence (Fri.) for January, and new dwelling consents for December (Friday). All to be covered in detail next week!

Also check out our latest Housing Chart Pack, highlighting the strong market share for first home buyers in 2023.

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This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article. 

Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although there are some caveats to note with the latest migration result.

Being recorded on Tuesday (rather than usual Monday, due to Wellington Anniversary), this also allowed the guys to comment ‘hot off the press’ on the Reserve Bank’s latest DTI and LVR consultation. In a nutshell, DTIs are still on track for the middle of the year, with LVRs set to be loosened a bit at the same time. Even more detail to come over the next week in written form and our next podcast.

There’s also a preview of the upcoming NZ Activity Index, and of course the Q4 inflation figures – a very important release!

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We're back for 2024 and it's straight into a look back at data releases so far this year. 

Firstly the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 2023 showed cost inflation is moderating (not declining) and with building consent data for November to also discuss there's a bit of time given to preview the health and prospects for the construction industry.

Jobs growth data from Stats NZ is also reviewed - still a key underpinning factor for the housing market, while the latest RBNZ release looks at the terms borrowers chose in November.

Additionally December's Buyer Classification data shows first home buyers didn't take a break prior to Christmas picking up a close-to-record 27% of sales over the month.

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In rounding out the year, there's coverage of the Best of the Best report, the upcoming chart pack and the now-live monthly video.

Plus, amongst a number of data releases there were a couple of RBNZ papers to discuss. 

Topics covered today:

Plus, Nick joined The Weekend Collective Radio Show on Saturday for their regular one our property focus on Newstalk ZB.

Have a safe and relaxing summer break, see you back on Monday the 15th of January.

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Call it what you will, this week it's all about money, and it's importance when it comes to the property market. Kicked off, due to Kelvin's article on the 10 things to know about mortgage debt right now, Nick and Kelvin detail how the cost and availability of credit truly make the property world go around. 

This is true for investors, first home buyers and other owner occupiers moving house as affordability remains squeezed due to high prices and high interest rates. Nick takes the opportunity to delve into the latest Buyer Classification series for each of the main centres and reveals some of the key differences. 

Kelvin also covers off the latest RBNZ data on how long borrowers are fixing their mortgage rates/payments for.

The main thing to look out for this week is the Q3 GDP data, but our annual best of the best report will also be available from Wednesday.

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Today, Nick chats to Rodney King, Mortgage Advisor for Loan Market Agile, based out of Christchurch.
Rodney has been in the Banking and Finance industry for a number of years and has exceptional experience in finding the right bank or lender for every type of borrower. 

In a wide ranging chat, Nick and Rodney cover off the current market dynamics, weighing up the impact of the new Government and the RBNZ's monetary policy decisions. 

First home buyers are a regular topic of interest but it's other owner occupiers looking to move house that are a source of intrigue for Rodney. Investors too are discussed, especially given recent policy announcements and of course there's plenty of hype for the Christchurch market which continues to look more favourable than many other main centres from an affordability perspective.

Contact Rodney at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/agile/about-us/rodney-king/
P: 0274 555 863
E:rodney.king@loanmarket.co.nz

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Two key releases were out last week, with the first being the last Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the year from the RBNZ. As covered in Kelvin's MPS commentary, it was more about tough talk, not action, with the OCR on hold, but an increase to the forecast peak. "No tolerance for inflation surprises" summarises the RBNZ's take right now, hence the warning shot across the bow. 

The other important data updated was the CoreLogic HPI release which reaffirmed the recovery in action, including general strength across the main centres. 

Otherwise a busy week for data included the NZAC (economic activity), business AND consumer confidence and jobs data, as well as dwelling consents figures. 

Plus, Nick and Kelvin try to close the loop on all the proposed housing related policy from the new Government, including an update on the shortening of the brightline test and supply-side considerations.

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Following the confirmation of the Sixth National Government of NZ Nick and Kelvin delve into the policy agreements (and disagreements) and probable implications.

They cover the ruling out of the foreign buyer tax, the (faster) reinstatement of interest cost deductibility, the (likely) shortening of the bright-line test, changes to the tenancy laws and the modification of the RBNZ mandate to focus solely on price stability (inflation).

Elsewhere, Kelvin re-summarises the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and the latest lending data from the RBNZ. 

And if you're interested in sponsoring Nick's fundraising effort (running 60kms) for Movember then you can do so here.

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The latest Corelogic Pain & Gain report always provides an interesting lens to look through the market with and this quarter is no different. On top of the usual comparisons, Nick and Kelvin take the time to look back a bit further to analyse any differences to previous downturns - spoiler alert, it's quite different this time around.

Other topics for discussion this week include the latest migration release from Stats NZ and also rental data. The RBNZ published the latest lending data by DTI, which always creates a bit of chat between the lads, and REINZ October report also creates a bit of content to cover.

Elsewhere there's a 'new' more timely view of CPI, though it's not fully comprehensive so Kelvin gives his take on how best to digest it. 

The November video is also live on Youtube.

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This week it's (mostly) all about first home buyers. There's plenty of reason for that - firstly we released our 6-monthly first home buyer report, revealing what they're buying, where they're buying and how much they're paying for it as well as a little bit of insight into how they're doing it. 

First home buyers were also the topic of Nick's appearance on the Newstalk ZB Weekend Collective show, with host Franceska Rudkin. 

Plus, a new report from new financial series provider Aera added another layer of depth to the 'time-to-deposit' affordability measure for first home buyers, by including forecasted figures of income, house prices and interest rates. Though as Nick and Kelvin discuss all forecasts require caveats and this one is no different.

As mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally?Tomorrow, Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

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Plenty of data and information to chew through this week, with the CoreLogic House Price Index kicking things off, and it's official - the downturn is over! A few caveats exist of course, but at a nationwide level the lads are calling it.

The latest Financial Stability Report was in some ways stock standard, but interesting at the same time. Nick and Kelvin explain why, especially when it comes to the potential introduction of debt-to-income restrictions.

From an economic perspective we also received the Labour Market statistics for Q3, including an update to the all-important unemployment rate. Additionally the NZAC data for Q3 is now complete, giving Kelvin the chance to outlay his expectations for the official GDP figures which are still some 6 weeks away. Throw in business confidence data and dwelling consent figures for September and it's an data degustation!

Plus of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally?Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association. 

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

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After a sombre discussion of the weekend’s rugby result, Nick and Kelvin launch into the usual analysis of all the property market data, which has been coming in thick and fast lately. Recent population figures confirm the influence of migration in Auckland, and the effects this is having on rental markets – not just there, but around the country too.

Meanwhile, we’ve recently had new mortgage lending (a bit patchy), consumer confidence (good and bad), and foreign buyer data (still low) to digest. Last week’s Pulse article looking at investor activity by size is also covered off. 

Filled jobs numbers are hot off the press, and are still showing growth – a good sign ahead of this week’s official labour market stats for Q3 on Wednesday. This week there’s a steady stream of other data and releases to look out for too – dwelling consents, the NZAC, and business confidence on Tuesday, as well as the latest Financial Stability Report on Wednesday. Will the FSR finally set out the actual rules and timing for possible DTI restrictions next year?

In amongst all of that, the October CoreLogic House Price Index will also be released (media on Tuesday under embargo until Wednesday), and as a teaser, it’s showing a rise in average values ….

And of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

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Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Today, we welcome Shona Mookerjee from Insurance Market to talk everything insurance. Often seen as an afterthought and a begrudging purchase, insurance is an important product to support not only homeowners but every person throughout their different life stages.

Shona is a passionate, welcoming and incredibly knowledgeable financial advisor and takes Nick through a bit of Insurance 101 and a day in the life of an insurance advisor.  There are a few key topics which Shona speaks about which are worth following up on, they are the 3%, 3%, 3% rule, levelling insurance and redundancy cover.

For good measure, and because Shona will also use the recording on her social channels, Nick provides a bit of insight int o CoreLogic's role in the industry and his 'view in two' (minutes), looking ahead for the property market.

Shona can be reached across each of the social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, email or through the Insurance Market website.

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Following the release of the Consumers Price Index (CPI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin dig deep into the detail of the inflation data, what all the terms mean, why it matters and what influence it could have over the Reserve Bank's next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on November 29. 

There's also the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and Monthly video which provide a decent line in the sand for where the property market sits as we prepare to welcome in a new Government. This includes commentary on the strength of first home buyers recently and the listings situation.

And of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally?Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Aside from a 'quick' breakdown of the All Blacks incredible match and victory over the Irish in the World Cup, it's straight into the result of the General Election where National were the clear winners of the day, though it won't be all plain sailing as we await the counting of special votes to know whether they'll need NZ First or not.

Either way, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over the consistent, or not-so-consistent policies between the three parties who may make-up our new Government. The bright-line test, interest deductibility and the foreign buyer tax are the key ones which come to mind.

There's plenty of data to cover off too, including the somewhat linked migration and rental index data, as well as the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series  - what's the latest on first home buyer and investor activity?

REINZ also released their latest index and count of agent-involved sales figures, then there's a look ahead to the big one for this quarter - the all-important CPI release for Q3.

Throw in a quick review of the latest NZ Bankers Association (NZBA) report, and a proper re-cap of the figures in the Cordell Construction Cost Index and you've got a bumper 45 minute episode to tune into, to help with all your conversations ultimately designed to help people build better lives!

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The CoreLogic HPI in September showed values plateau nationwide but importantly the NZ market is not all one market, so focus remains on some of the regional differences beneath the surface. 

The Reserve Bank took a less aggressive stance in the monetary policy review - not necessarily due to their decision to hold the OCR flat itself (for the fourth decision in a row), but more due to their expectation setting for the next decision, which now looks more likely to remain on hold. There are a few key releases to come before then though, which Kelvin details. 

The other topic of interest was the construction sector, off the back of consenting figures last week, but also due to Nick delving a bit deeper into the sector. 

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With plenty of economic data and some lending data to review, much of this week's conversation turns to what it could mean when it comes to the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Review, coming out on Wednesday. 

A still-strong labour market, stronger-than-expected economic activity and improving confidence amongst both consumers and businesses has Nick and Kelvin considering the increased likelihood of one more OCR hike, and importantly the timing of it.

Kelvin delved into the RBNZ mortgage lending data in greater detail last week and also provides an excellent overview of ASB's recent analysis regarding the impact of migration on the economy and inflation. 

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This week Nick and Kelvin dedicate a large portion of the pod to digest and discuss the latest GDP data release for Q2, even though it's admitadly old news now. But it will feature into the RBNZ discussions when it comes to consideration for their next monetary policy review (on Oct 4). 

Elsewhere there's a few 'insights from the road' after both were travelling last week and Kelvin also discusses key take-outs from the release of the monthly chart pack (free to download now).

Lastly this week, a thanks to Dean for getting in touch, go the ABs, and check out the latest market update video.

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Plenty to get through this week, kicking off with the report which stemmed from some CoreLogic data, trying to replicate the foreign buyer tax estimates from the National Party's proposal. Michael Reddell's detailed blog, including a bit more detail on international experiences is here. 

Mapping the market was also updated, providing further evidence of the recovery in values (at a suburb level) so take a look to see what's happening in your area.

Elsewhere first home buyers remain active, rental growth continues to increase and net migration is only going in one direction - up.

Lastly this week, a thanks to Jason for getting in touch and proposing a couple of useful considerations for anyone wanting to come home from across the ditch. 

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In what was a quieter data week for the housing market Nick and Kelvin again cover off coverage of the tax policies announced by the National Party, following Kelvin's article assessing the potential impact of the changes.

From a data perspective, Kelvin reviews the latest mortgage term origination data from the RBNZ - with borrowers slowly swinging back to shorter terms. A quick look at listings volumes shows the spring increase has begun but it's off a low base and with sales also picking up, overall stock levels remain relatively weak.

Lastly this week, a look ahead sees a number of releases which will be of interest, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, net migration data, rental prices and the REINZ monthly report for August.

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This week Nick and Kelvin quickly run through the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which showed a modest fall at the national level, and patchy regional patterns - some areas up in August, some down. This patchiness may remain a feature in the coming months.
 
 We then launch into a detailed discussion of how the housing market might look if National won the upcoming election - from a shorter Brightline period, to a softer foreign buyer ban, to interest deductibility, there's plenty to cover. Ultimately, house prices may receive a boost, but it might not be all that large - with mortgage rates still high.
 
 Meanwhile, recent economic data, including filled jobs, the NZAC, and business/consumer confidence have all been encouraging.
 
 And finally we finish with listener questions about DTIs - could National remove them from the Reserve Bank's toolkit? If imposed, would they actually do much? 

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Today we sit down with the esteemed Steve McMenemy, director and mortgage advisor at Loan Market Auckland. As a veteran in the finance industry, Steve provides us with a deep-dive into the intricacies of the New Zealand property. We walk through the projected growth in the Massey area, and Steve unpacks the vulnerabilities and opportunities in the new build market. In light of the Unitary Plan, we also discuss its impact on the housing market and new build projects.

Shifting gears, we delve into the current housing market and the psychology of first-time buyers. Steve shares valuable insights into the factors stoking increased demand and gives practical advice to those grappling with affordability in this fast-paced market. In the wake of recent changes in property investor borrowing, we dissect the implications of removing the ability to offset mortgage interest costs as a tax deduction, as well as the loosening of LVR restrictions.

To wrap up our discussion, we turn our attention to the evolving trends in apartment living and reflect on the Reserve Bank's influence on the market. We also explore the role of debt-to-income ratio in bank policies and why more Kiwi are turning to brokers for their mortgage needs. Steve's unique insights and experiences provide a fascinating perspective on these topics, making this a must-listen episode for anyone interested in the New Zealand property market. So tune in and enjoy this comprehensive ride through the NZ property market!

Contact Steve at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/steve-mcmenemy/
https://www.instagram.com/steve.mcmenemy/ 
loanmarket.co.nz/steve-mcmenemy 
021 743 494 

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Following the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, Nick and Kelvin discuss the state and future of housing affordability, tackling the house price to income ratio, and discussing why, despite improvements, buying a home remains an expensive endeavor. As we navigate this intricate terrain, we ponder whether the simultaneous growth in income and house prices cancels out each other's effects, leaving affordability static.

Then it's onto recent lending trends, as reported by the RBNZ, including the impact of changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions. There's a certain fascination as we dissect how first-home buyers are capitalising on low deposit loans and why investors with larger deposits are experiencing a surge in activity. Yet, we recognise the elephant in the room - the high-interest rates for larger loans and the limited individuals who can shoulder the extra debt for home ownership. 

In the second half of our discussion, we delve into banking trends and loan repricing dynamics. The implications of cashbacks, equity calculators, and loan-to-value ratio restrictions come under the microscope. Together, we assess the potential impact of recent economic data releases on GDP and ponder the influence of the Chinese economy on the global market. This episode is the perfect blend of deep insights and lighthearted conversation - a must-listen for anyone interested in the nuances of the New Zealand property market. 

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Number one on today's agenda is the Reserve Bank's monetary policy statement and the implications of the unchanged official cash rate. We break down the jargon and sift through layers of GDP, labour market, house prices, and inflation projections, leaving no stone unturned. We also reveal the potential for a rate rise and the nitty-gritty of the decision-making process. Moreover, we plunge headfirst into July's property market report, dissecting the role of first-home buyers, the 'wait and see' approach of investors, and the patchy nature of the market.

Particular focus is given into the impact of deductibility on property investment and housing affordability with Kelvin working through an in-depth example. Additionally, we cast a spotlight on regional variations in house prices and their influence on affordability. 

Lastly we also preview the mortgage lending figures for July and the potential after-effects of the Reserve Bank's loosening of the LVRs on investors and first home buyers. 

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Firstly, our apologies for the late upload of this week's episode, we had some technical difficulties with the file. But, onto the episode...

This week, Nick and Kelvin kick-off the pod with a look at CoreLogic's latest Pain & Gain report, including a bit of detail that is often missed in the usual media coverage. 

Switching gears, we’ll discuss the latest Buyer Classification trends and the shifting dynamics between stronger and weaker buyer groups. Get ready to unravel the implications of these changes using the Reserve Bank's June new lending origination data. Plus, discover how a shift towards longer loan terms might offer a much-needed security blanket for borrowers. 

We'll also shed light on the rising rental prices, driven by net migration and decreasing vacancy rates. And as a cherry on top, we'll wrap up with a closer look at the Reserve Bank's projections for the official cash rate (OCR). We’ll ponder the possible delay in the first OCR cut and the risks of non-tradable inflation. 

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Ever wondered why both employment and unemployment rates can rise at the same time? Or how high wage growth impacts inflation and the Official Cash Rate (OCR)? Join us, along with our guest, Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson, as we decipher the latest labour market data. Prepare for an enlightening discussion on the OCR's future and the pressures that could sway its course.

Now, imagine if you could decode the perplexing world of the housing market. On this episode, we navigate through the House Price Index for July, provide insights into the current market situation, and foresee the potential of further market pain. From properties being resold at a loss to the increasing rental prices and lower vacancy rates, we ensure you're up-to-date with the latest trends. Buckle up as we journey through the intricacies of labour and housing market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge that makes a difference.

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Ever wondered how the easing of LVR rules has affected the investor landscape? We dig into this, discussing how this change has tipped the scales, encouraging investors to lean towards new builds. The conversation gets even more interesting as we scrutinise the loss of interest-deductibility and its sway on investor involvement. Delving further, we'll face head-on, the challenges and opportunities of investing in a market with low rental yields and interest rates. We discuss the large gap between rental yields and mortgage rates and the potential long-term impacts they might have on the retirement scene. 

Shifting gears, we'll delve deeper into the economic matters that impact the property market. We'll review the New Zealand Activity Index for June, and the forecasts from bank economists. With an unflinching look at the possibility of a looming double-dip recession, we'll discuss its potential implications on the official cash rate, housing market, and labour force. We promise insightful, nuanced, and engaging dialogue that will leave you more informed and equipped to make decisions in the property investment universe. So, join us for this enriching and enlightening conversation.

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Number one on the running order this week is the recently released 6% annual inflation rate. Engage with us as we dissect this figure, the important non-tradable inflation rate and its implications on the official cash rate.

Intrigued by the official cash rate and how it impacts your spending habits? Then this podcast is a must-listen. Brace yourself as we delve into a possible economic scenario where inflation remains high, pushing us towards a new recession. We'll be discussing the various factors that could influence this economic trajectory, such as the lagged effects of the current monetary policy and the number of folks who are yet to reprice their mortgages. 

Our podcast episode doesn't stop at just inflation and cash rates. We transport you to the heart of the real estate market, analyzing current trends and highlighting the potential challenges and opportunities. We'll put under the microscope the low listing volumes, the increasing evidence of floor prices, and the rising investor selling in Australia. Come aboard as we discuss the current listings running at multi-year lows, the annual increase in sales, and what the future looks like for the New Zealand property market. All these and more, as we explore the intricate world of economics and real estate.

Free download of the latest CoreLogic monthly chart pack

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Ever wondered how the unchanging official cash rate might influence not only the economy but also your personal life? Kelvin Davidson and I, Nick Goodall, get to the heart of the matter in our latest episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast. We kick things off with a lively discussion about the recent Reserve Bank OCR decision holding the OCR at 5.5%, highlighting its 'wait and see' approach and the tell-tale signs of a relaxing labour market due to net migration easing skill shortages.

Excited to understand the potential risks of a slower rate of inflation? Well, strap in as we discuss how the constant OCR could impact inflation, financial markets, and your household expenses. We'll walk you through the ripple effect of the OCR rate stability on mortgage rates, using the jump from 2.8% to 5.1% as a case study for shaping the economic scene (David Cunningham on LinkedIn).

As we move towards the final part of our episode, we'll be shedding light on the potential upswing in the property market. The trends in rental prices, the cost of living crisis, and the influence of migration on the market are all on the table for discussion. We'll also be scrutinising the most recent sales volumes and house price index data from REINZ. Is there a potential for a 'dead cat bounce'?

Cordell Construction Cost Index for Q2
Monthly video up 

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This weeks episode is brimming with insights, as we untangle complexities and delve into the data from CoreLogic's House Price Index. The property market is behaving in mysterious ways, with a downward trend across the nation, but certain regions like Auckland experiencing a sharper decline.

Ever wondered how the dynamics of the property market might impact first-time buyers, particularly in a time of flux? We'll walk you through the intricacies of identifying market troughs, and examine the factors leading to some homes performing better than others. With decreasing supply, increasing demand, and relaxing lending restrictions, we ponder the likelihood of the market hitting a stable floor soon. But make no mistake, the market is still a beast of unpredictability, facing affordability pressures and high mortgage rates.

We also touch upon the effects of the election on the market, the financial dynamics between renting and owning a home, and the role of the Bank of Mum and Dad and KiwiSaver in assisting first-time buyers. Lastly, we'll also be looking ahead, discussing key releases such as Cordell Construction Cost Index, Stats New Zealand's migration data and rental prices, and the Real Estate Institute's house price index. So, grab your headphones and get ready for an enlightening journey into the New Zealand property market!

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Does the state of New Zealand's property market keep you up at night? Well, it's time to sleep easy as we join Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson for a riveting discussion about the country's real estate landscape and economic outlook. We navigate the nuances of the New Zealand Activity Index for May, a vital indicator for GDP, and explore what it truly means for the second quarter. But don't break out the champagne just yet. Kelvin reminds us that the economic seascape can be precarious, and there's no assurance that we won't be navigating negative GDP figures in the following quarters.

In the second act of our dialogue, we roll up our sleeves and get down and dirty with the latest economic data, from the pulse of business confidence to the intricacies of filled jobs. We dissect easing cost pressures, reducing pricing intentions, and a timid resurgence in consumer confidence. Even though the economy appears steady, we highlight potential challenges looming on the horizon.

Lastly, we set our sights on lending trends around trade-up premiums. Armed with the latest lending data, we scrutinize the new loan-to-value ratio speed limit and the enduring high mortgage rates. As we wrap things up, we make sense of the housing market's challenges, the influence of an aging population, and the financial hurdles, especially when bridging finance is required. We invite you to plug in, listen up, and join us in this enlightening discussion about the economy's future. Let's make sense of the numbers together!

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This week we kick off by unravelling the latest data from CoreLogic's May 2021 chart pack. From the significance of the first annual increase in sales volumes to the importance of understanding the bigger picture behind the numbers, this episode is packed with valuable insights!

We also delve into the drivers of the New Zealand property market and examine the recent increase in sales volumes, all while acknowledging that this growth is still low compared to long-term averages. Kelvin helps us comprehend the context beyond just the numbers, including the strength of the economy, current listing levels, and demand for property. We also discuss why we shouldn't necessarily expect a strong upturn anytime soon and how the market's growth is expected to be low and slow.

Lastly, we shed light on the rental market in New Zealand, with a particular focus on the Otago region and Queenstown, where the flow of rental listings is running 15% below normal. Kelvin walks us through the supply and demand dynamics due to high net migration and the potential rent increases we could see as a result. Learn about the importance of keeping good tenants (and a good landlord!). 

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Could the New Zealand property market be finally starting to turn a corner? Gain valuable insights on the latest trends and patterns as we discuss CoreLogic's mapping the market release for June 2023, and explore how 10% of suburbs saw an increase in value while the majority still experienced a decline.

We also delve deep into the economic release of Q1, discussing why there is a delay in the GDP data (hence we closely track the New Zealand Activity Index), and how this affects the housing market. As we explore regional trends and performance, join us in analyzing the economic contraction and its impact on the property market, and what this could mean for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.

Lastly, we'll take a close look at the potential for a slow recovery and rental growth in the market, considering factors such as population growth, the tight supply of rental listings, and the ability of tenants to pay. Tune in as we navigate the complexities of the New Zealand property market and provide valuable insights to help you make informed decisions.

Monthly chart pack
Monthly video

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Are you feeling the pinch of seasonal illnesses and the excitement of recent sporting events? We certainly are! But that won't stop us from giving you all the latest updates on the New Zealand property market. This week, we delve into trends across the market, from first home buyers making up around 25% of sales to the all-time low of mortgaged investors. We also notice some fascinating trends emerging in Auckland and other parts of the country.

The real estate market listings are painting an interesting picture as well, with reduced supply leading to a decrease in total stock on the market. We zoom in on the Auckland data, where total stock is 15% lower than it was this time last year. Is the end of the downturn near? We also examine the effects of credit restrictions and high rates on demand and their potential impact on price growth in the coming months.

Lastly, we turn our attention to the Reserve Bank numbers, exploring trends in new lending and mortgage rates. With 75% of new loans being taken out in the one to two-year fixed range, and mortgage rates stabilizing from last month, we discuss the significant changes since mid-2021 and the potential economic implications of these trends. So, come join us for an informative and engaging discussion of all things New Zealand property market in this episode!

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This week Nick welcomes back Kelvin from holiday with a host of data, covering the latest CoreLogic House Price Index results, renewed business confidence and strong jobs data, as well as a review of the latest dwelling consents and building work in place figures.

Plus, plenty of references to the state of the Australian market as home owning Kiwi look to the positive trend over there in anticipation of the same thing happening here.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick is joined by Brad Olsen, CEO and Principal Economist at Infometrics. Nick and Brad delve deep on the Reserve Bank's latest monetary policy statement and official cash rate decision, including all the juicy forecasts within. Brad also shares his insights on the impact of migration and Government spending on inflation and the state of the New Zealand property market.

Nick and Brad also discuss the potential impact of debt-to-income ratios on the housing market and the recent CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q1 resales. They remain cautiously optimistic about the market and encourage caution when taking short-term options such as mortgage holidays or interest-only terms. The episode ends with Brad sharing his upcoming travel plans and how they relate to the primary sector and the economy.

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Following Westpac's big call (at the time) and then the Government budget last week there's plenty to talk about as Nick and Kelvin essentially preview the RBNZ's next Monetary Policy Statement coming out this Wednesday at 2pm.

The RBNZ also released Q1 data for debt-to-income tracking. Meanwhile both the CoreLogic monthly chart pack for May and the first home buyer report for Q1 also went to market. 

Check out the latest monthly video on Youtube.

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This week Nick and Kelvin use the latest CoreLogic First Home Buyer report and April's buyer classification data to focus on the key players in the market.

For those first home buyers (or anyone really) who are credit approved there's no doubt this is a great market for them, with a shift down for the prices they're paying but a shift up (to houses) in the types of property they're buying. 

Meanwhile for other owner occupiers, they're either unable or unwilling to get out there in the current market, while mortgaged investors continue to do it tough. Rents are rising and inward migration is booming though, so perhaps there's more positivity on the horizon for them. 

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The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report again promoted the NZ Economy's resilience and with very early signs of the property market approaching a trough and the labour market remaining tight it's hard to argue against.

The detail on jobseeker numbers and the difference to unemployment figures is available here:

https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/jswr-unemployment-report.pdf

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson discuss the state of the New Zealand economy, including the NZ Activity Index, inflation, and job statistics. They also discuss recent changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rules and the upcoming financial stability report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The speakers touch on the possibility of tax reform, including a land value tax, but do not expect any major changes before the upcoming election.

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Inflation dropped in Q1, which is great news for everybody. The guys run through the latest data, the risk of any suprises in the coming quarters, and of course what it means for the official cash rate and mortgage rates.

They then quickly cover off the latest rent figures, before a discussion of the signs that this housing market downturn may be on its last legs (for better or worse, depending on your perspective). But there's also a long list of reasons why the end of the downturn won't suddenly give way to another upturn.

There's finally the usual run-through of upcoming data, including the NZAC, business and consumer confidence, filled jobs, and mortgage lending.

And they also manage to cover off a recent story about asking prices vs final selling prices: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131813174/property-owners-selling-for-395k-below-asking-price-on-average--corelogic

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With Nick away in Northland on a family holiday, Kelvin leads the discussion today, joined by Alan Gilbert, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Solutions.

The discussion runs through construction costs, the active buyer groups in the market at present, as well as migration trends, and upcoming rental figures.

The looming CPI release on Thursday 20th is also covered off, which is a really key release in terms of the next steps for the RBNZ’s OCR tightening cycle.

Alan then steps in to talk us through some recent work CoreLogic did around Auckland’s floods (x2) and mapping the effects from satellite imagery.

Check out the monthly video here

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After the RBNZ surprised everyone by lifting the OCR by 50 basis points, Nick and Kelvin dig into their statement and reasoning for the call. Given their consistency in messaging, are they actually quite a good 'referee'?

Plus, this week a detailed look into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for March.

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Amongst the usual review of weekly data and preview of the RBNZ OCR call this week, Nick and Kelvin also take a look at the RBNZ's latest paper on flooding exposure of the banking system. A couple of key insights extracted by Kelvin are:

Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast. 

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Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson have called it, saying it’s “fairly likely” we’ve entered a recession.
Find out:

 Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast. 

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Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland flooding are likely to be a major drag on the country’s economy and may have plunged NZ into a recession earlier than expected. 

But is there a silver lining from this devastating event for our country’s shrinking economy?

In this week’s NZ Property Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Nick Goodall make a case for the downturn coming to an end sooner than expected including:

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With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.

Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.

And keep a look out for the monthly video to be published later this week on the CoreLogic Youtube channel.

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In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.

Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.

Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.

You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.

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With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. 

This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.

Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights. 

This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.

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This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. 

Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.

But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they 'look through' the impacts of the event for now, leaving that to fiscal and private support in the first instance.

Outside of the MPS, the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report provides an excellent marker for future house price growth (or lack-of), while Kelvin remains very attentive to the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for economic performance and the latest lending stats provide yet more evidence (not that it's needed) of how slow the market really is.

Plenty to come this week too, including the CoreLogic House Price Index results for February, going public on Wednesday.

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Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.

There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.

It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.

The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.

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**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version**

 With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.

With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.

Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week. 

Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.

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Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).

As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).

There's also the impacts of the Auckland floods to weigh up, though as is discussed it's not exactly straight forward as there will likely be added inflationary pressure, but it's also important to make funds available to those who need it (without too high an interest rate).

Dwelling consent data was also released and for the first time in a long time the annual figure dropped below 50,000, though it's no reason to panic with the pipeline full. Once again, considerations will need to be made for the remedial work required in Auckland, which may see new consents nationwide drop at a faster pace than otherwise expected.

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With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.

We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.

There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.

After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch. 

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What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.

In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.

Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.

Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.

Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.

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Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.

After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.

The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.

Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.

The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn. 

Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.

Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much into asking price or sales price measures and are Auckland buyers really that active outside of the Super City?

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For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.

The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pretty weak, but is there a chance that inflation expectations might soon be moderating?

The discussion then switches to an overall review of 2022 and a look ahead to 2023. The past 12 months have certainly been a timely reminder that house prices can go down (sharply) as well as up, and that mortgage rates play a key role. The next year will probably contain more housing weakness, but some positivity may start to emerge later in 2023.

Anybody wanting a more in-depth/alternative discussion of the 12 months ahead should check out Nick’s regular monthly video and the recording of a webinar the guys recently delivered to a Government audience.

All the best for 2023 to all of our listeners.

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With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and  Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity.  

Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loan arrears, while BusinessDesk analysed records around liquidations which show up  the constructor sector's lingering vulnerability.  

Keep a look out for a number of different releases from CoreLogic this week, including the Best of the Best report, the final monthly video of the year and the last Market Update webinar for Government employees (being tag teamed by both Nick and Kelvin).

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The discussion kicks off this week on the topic of house prices, with the CoreLogic Index last week showing further falls. Sure, the drop was smaller than in recent months. But be careful of reaching the conclusion that the downturn might also be over. It probably isn’t, and the ultimate peak for mortgage rates could hold the key as to when property values find a floor.

Indeed, the macro news last week also had a negative tone, such as filled jobs, dwelling consents, and business confidence. Weak hiring intentions could be a property market concern for next year, given the importance of the labour market to borrowers’ ability to keep servicing their debt.  

In Kelvin's weekly article he delves into the situation with investors and those of different portfolio sizes.

The guys also discuss some listener feedback, especially the idea that casually switching to interest-only if a borrower gets into trouble isn’t as easy as it might seem.

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After the hotly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement was released last week Nick and Kelvin have a lot to discuss. From the OCR decision itself, to all the macro-economic forecasts and the language used in subsequent commentary - all with an eye to how the market is shaping up for 2023.

We also got October lending figures last week, Centrix's credit review, consumer confidence results and Xero's Small Business Index to digest.

Plus, the Government were busy too. Firstly they extended the dates for Healthy Homes Standards compliance, they also announced a 'Critical Materials Taskforce' to protect the construct industry and also launched their Change in Housing Affordability Indicators (CHAI) reporting/dashboard.

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While Nick and Kelvin keenly await the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, being released on Wednesday, they first take the time to look back a week full of releases.

CoreLogic's Pain & Gain report for Q3, showing the proportion of owners selling at a loss has increased, but is still no where near the levels of previous downturn. 

REINZ latest release included what is likely a false dawn, as their HPI showed a minor increase in October, but sales volumes remain very weak.

The CoreLogic Buyer Classifcation data for October illustrated the continued struggles of mortgaged multiple property owners amidst first home buyers still out and about, with the RBNZ DTI data showing one reason why.

And Kelvin's round up of macro-economic data showed some encouraging signs in both the net migration figures and latest NZ Activity Index (measure of economic activity). Speaking of which, the Massey 'liveGDP' tracker is one to keep an eye on.

Plus, there's also a bit of chat about the recently announced changes to the RMA - likely to have an impact on the property market, but only in the long term.

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A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates. 

Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of our 6-monthly First Home Buyer Report, particularly that first home buyers are navigating the current market better than anyone else.

Stats NZ also released their Rental Index for October and Auckland City Council's code of compliance certificates illustrates the building slowdown which hasn't been as evident from consenting figures. Plus, the guys chat about Williams Corporations announcement that they've offered voluntary redundancies to a number of their staff across the globe.

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After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for.

 Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our financial system is pretty resilient, and that most households should ‘get by’, provided that unemployment stays relatively low. More detailed points include some climate change modelling, negative equity, non-bank lending, and the prospects for LVRs vs DTIs.

 Other data from last week included the continuation of low unemployment in Q3, and the resilience of new dwelling consents. Coming up, watch out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, Buyer Classification data, and the latest Stats NZ rental figures 

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A number of data releases from a range of locations, but it still all boils down to businesses - are they investing and hiring - and  consumers - are they still working, borrowing and spending?

The answers are slightly mixed, with businesses not confident but still doing fine and consumers much the same, though the latest RBNZ lending data further reiterates they're not borrowing near as much as they were or could be.

A number of links mentioned this week:
BusinessDesk coverage of ANZ Business Outlook survey
Xero data on small business health
BusinessDesk detail of ANZ customer reporting
CoreLogic under insurance survey
Affordability compared to 1990 article
Auckland being a million dollar city article 

And lastly, thanks to Amelia for getting in touch.

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There are no surprises what forms the bulk of this week's podcast - inflation! With the latest CPI data out last week, and it coming as a shock to many, forecasts for the OCR, mortgage interest rates and house prices have been seriously revised. To kick things off Kelvin provides a 'review of the reviews', summarising the response to the inflation data and potential flow through to the housing market.

Amongst a wide-ranging, exploratory discussion Nick also references Cameron Bagrie's 'challenge to the status quo' article on BusinessDesk, imploring action to address the inflation issues from the bottom up and well as the top down, and to find ways to increase the productivity of our economy. 

In other releases the comprehensive quarterly property market and economic report for Q3 was published last week with the key insulating factor of a strong labour market setting this downturn apart from the GFC, leading the commentary.

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After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.

Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at the end of the tunnel. 

The rental index data from Stats NZ meanwhile looks a little off, but either way, reduced rental growth is adding the current challenges for property investors.

The regular quarterly report will be available to download later this week, but prior to that, all eyes will be on the CPI release from Stats NZ - set for Tuesday 10:45am.

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The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase. 

Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistake, though it seems it's a mistake they're willing to make considering the fallout may not be too dramatic (and potentially a better outcome than inflation continuing to run rampant).

Meanwhile our House Price Index for September showed values continue to fall, the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series shows first home buyers remain active but investors not-so and a closer look at values by property type, courtesy of Stuff.co.nz.

There's also a quick local election round up, with a view to what it could mean for the General Election next year and a special thanks to Pankaj for the feedback.

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Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.

Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.

A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoon and the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for September will be available on Friday, setting up an interesting show for next week.

Elsewhere, there's been coverage of ghost houses on Stuff, whether it's better to rent or buy on The Spinoff and Nick ponders the announcement by The Opportunities Party (TOP) about their proposed tax changes, including a 0.75% land value tax.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system. 

Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking points to dissect. 

The three key drivers of house price growth are pretty clear - land availability, interest rates and a favourable tax system, but how are those things changing and is the change going to be enough to disturb the long-run trend of affordability continuing to worsen?

A quick look ahead for the week rounds out the show this week, with a number of key data releases to look out for, from RBNZ, Stats NZ and ANZ.

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Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?

REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness the main theme. Broad weakness also typified the latest release of the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data analysing the median value and 3 month change by suburb across the country.

Elsewhere we also got the latest migration figures from Stats NZ, as well as their rental index release showing further reduced demand and pressure on rental prices.

Next week's podcast will be recorded and released on Tuesday 27 September due to the public on holiday on Monday 26 September.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss. 

Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official release of the Q2 GDP figures and the more timely NZAC for August. 

The big question of course being did we dip into a technical recession or not, though as Kelvin regularly points out, does it matter, if it felt like a recession anyway?

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The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.

The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.

Building consents have (finally) shown signs of tailing off, and while it's still minor, Kelvin thinks it's time to call the turning point, though with the pipeline full and the recent government announcement to support commitments in the sector, a GFC-type bust phase isn't expected.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown. 

As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.

Mark started Sotheby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property market, both in Queenstown and around the country.

Listen in to hear about Mark's take on the current market, thoughts on the foreign buyer ban, connection to international markets and expectations for the future.

Catch all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz 

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This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed.

At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the "Build Ready Development Pathway" designed to support the industry, in particular for stalled construction. This should provide confidence and certainty to the sector, which could otherwise be lacking.

Elsewhere we released some timely new climate risk analysis (in conjunction with global reinsurer Munich RE), illustrating the current and growing cost of river floods in NZ - something which needs to be acted upon sooner rather than later.

In what was a busy media week, Kelvin fronted the latest update to the 6-monthly housing affordability report, showing some measures have improved but others haven't.

All that, plus RBNZ mortgage data, consumer confidence survey results and underwhelming retail spend figures.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement. 

Nick and Kelvin provide their review of the statement and expectations for the short-term future of the market. The latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q2 2022 and recent stories about negative equity also feed into this discussion.

Then there's the BRANZ/MBIE report on the long term outlook for construction, the July NZ Activity Index (NZAC) and a new report from the Housing Technical Working Group acknowledging the big influences of property prices over the long term history to sink your teeth into.

This week look out for a release on the potential ongoing impact of regular floods in NZ and the Q2 Housing Affordability Report.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.

Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.

Of course, it wouldn't really be a week in the property market without something to do with the lending environment so a review of the latest RBNZ debt-to-income (DTI) reporting flows into a preview of their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) to be released on Wednesday and includes their review of the Official Cash Rate (OCR).

And keep an eye out for a special edition podcast coming soon, looking at both the NZ and AU property markets - their similarities and differences.

The Pain & Gain report for Q2 will also be available for download from first thing Tuesday morning.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen, Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected market commentators on the Australian market and they offer great perspective at a time uncertainty in both countries remains high. 

Key topics of interest covered are the OCR, include recent history and speed of change/expectations for change, affordability - especially in the main/capital centres and the differing regulatory environment. 

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region.

The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate competition and the opportunity of more high-LVR loans provide intrigue on where the market is heading.

A surprising (minor) lift in the unemployment rate caused a bit of overreaction in the market but shouldn't be fully dismissed and are we truly, finally seeing signs of a reduction in consents for new builds?

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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